Passing
Game Thoughts: The return of New England’s top wide
receiver, Julian Edelman, was certainly a welcome change for the
Patriots in the Divisional round of the playoffs. He had not played
since all the way back in Week 10, but appeared to barely miss
a beat in the offense. Edelman led the team with 10 receptions
for 100 yards against a tough Kansas City defense as Brady peppered
the receiver with targets. This also allowed tight end Rob Gronkowski
to see less attention, which he turned into seven receptions for
83 yards and two scores. Of course, this meant little production
from the other members of the New England passing game as Danny
Amendola was held to just two receptions for 18 yards. Keshawn
Martin did have 57 yards, but it came on just two receptions while
Brandon LaFell caught three passes for a measly six yards.
With the Patriots seeming to struggle with their rushing attack,
it’s won’t be surprising if the team opts to lean
heavily on veteran future Hall of Famer Tom Brady as he plays
in what will be his 10th AFC Championship appearance (yes, you
read that correctly). Brady is an MVP candidate and he seemed
to be in full control against the Chiefs, so the Broncos will
need to on their game if they hope to slow down this high-powered
offense. These two teams did play back in Week 12, also in Denver,
when the Broncos were able to walk away with a 30-24 overtime
victory. The Patriots were without both Edelman and Amendola in
that game which certainly led to a different gameplan, but Brady
was still successful as he threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns.
With Edelman and Amendola back in the mix, however, expect the
matchups to play out much differently than they did in Week 12.
The Broncos have arguably the best top three cornerback group
in the NFL with Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby, but
if you had to pick a weak point, it’s likely the young nickel
corner, Roby. Roby will almost certainly see quite a bit of Edelman
in this matchup which could end up being the biggest matchup of
the game. With Brady focusing so much on Edelman with his targets,
the Broncos will need Roby to at least stay competitive if they
hope to slow down this passing game. The other important factor
to watch will be the Broncos pass rush against the Patriots offensive
line. They sacked him three times in Week 12 and will be looking
for ways to make that happen again here in the AFC Championship.
Running Game Thoughts: A barrage of injuries throughout the season
has certainly caused confusion and struggles within the New England
offense and the team has now seemingly decided to go with veteran
Steven Jackson–who spent most of the season on his couch–as
their lead ball carrier. Jackson hasn’t been overly impressive
in his limited work. He averaged just 2.4 yards per carry on 21
carries in the regular season and barely improved on that with
a six attempt for 16-yard performance against the Chiefs in the
playoffs this past week. Jackson remains the most likely player
to get a goal line touchdown which does give him some value, but
it’s James White who seems to be the back that the Patriots
trust the most at the moment. White played 72 percent of the Patriots’
offensive snaps against the Chiefs and caught a pair of passes
for 39 yards despite getting just one carry on the day.
New England has almost completely abandoned their running game
late this season and with the Broncos front seven being so good
against the run, that seems like a probable outcome here in Denver.
The Broncos held the Patriots running game to just 39 total rushing
yards on 16 carries when these teams played in Week 12 and they
allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league on the season.
Given the likely gameplan and White’s usage in the passing
game, he’s certainly the player to roll the dice on in this
matchup if you’re looking for a New England running back.
Do consider that his value is substantially higher in PPR formats,
however, as he is very unlikely to achieve even close to double-digit
carries in the game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It wasn’t pretty, but Peyton Manning
was able to lead his Broncos to another AFC Championship game
as the team edged out the Steelers in the Divisional round of
the playoffs. Manning completed just under 57 percent of his passes
on the day and while he avoided throwing any costly interceptions,
he also failed to throw a touchdown pass. This Broncos offense
is a far cry from what it was just two seasons ago when it seemed
to be putting up video game-like numbers. Still, there are very
talented players in this passing game who are capable of having
nice games. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders led the team with five
receptions for 85 yards Sanders while his partner in crime, Demaryius
Thomas, caught four passes for 40 yards against the Steelers.
Those numbers certainly aren’t spectacular, but both players
finished the regular season on a hot streak.
Thomas could be in for another tough game here in the AFC Championship
game as he’ll be going up against a New England defense
that held him to just one reception on 12 targets back in Week
12. Thomas struggled to find chemistry with quarterback Brock
Osweiler in that game, but also had to take a big part of the
blame as he dropped multiple passes in that game. Interestingly
enough, it was No. 2 cornerback Logan Ryan who covered Thomas
on most of his routes in that game, so look for the Patriots to
attempt to replicate that success that again. Unfortunately for
the Patriots, their gameplan did not allow them to do a great
job containing Sanders in that contest as he caught six of his
nine targets for 113 yards. Sanders was mostly covered by Malcolm
Butler and that could certainly happen again, but it would not
be surprising to see the Patriots shift a bit more coverage that
way to help ease the pressure on Butler. The other players in
this Broncos passing game are just not consistent enough to trust
for fantasy purposes, but tight end Owen Daniels did make five
receptions for 48 yards in his Week 12 matchup against New England,
so there’s a chance that he could be a sneaky option, especially
if Manning is looking for a safety blanket underneath.
Running Game Thoughts: Denver’s running game struggled
to find consistency through the majority of the season as the
team bounced back and forth between C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman.
Both players had a few good games, but neither player was able
to do it on a week-to-week basis, which certainly didn’t
help to create a threat out of the backfield and ease the pressure
on Manning or Osweiler. The duo did finish the regular season
strong, however, as they combined for over 200 total rushing yards
and each player scored in a win over the Chargers. The running
game’s success continued against Pittsburgh this past week
as Anderson rushed for 72 yards and a touchdown, including an
impressive 34-yard run, while Hillman added 38 of his own on the
ground. Anderson is the better option in the passing game which
would presumably give him more playing time, but the snap counts
have remained practically dead even late in the season. This full
on “running back by committee” approach has made it
tough to know which Broncos back–if any–is poised
to have a big game.
If we look at the recent success that this backfield has had
and what they did the last time they went up against the Patriots,
there is certainly reason for optimism in this matchup. In that
Week 12 matchup, it was Anderson who led the team with a season
high 113 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He also added four
receptions for 40 yards, marking what was by far his biggest fantasy
day of the 2015 season. Hillman was no slouch in that game himself
as he added 59 yards and a touchdown of his own. Snap counts saw
Anderson on the field for 56 percent of the Broncos’ offensive
plays while Hillman was out there for just 36 percent of snaps.
While recent games would indicate a much closer split for touches
and snaps, it is worth noting that Anderson could easily be on
the field for well over 50 percent of snaps if the Broncos fall
behind and are forced to rely more on their passing game. The
Denver gameplan has been to win with defense and field positioning
all year, though, so don’t expect this team to suddenly
abandon their running game even if they do fall behind by one
or two scores. With Manning struggling mightily with accuracy
issues throughout the season, Denver will likely opt to give their
running backs at least 20 total touches, which could allow for
both of them to play a significant fantasy role.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer set career-highs in passing
yards (4,671) and touchdowns (35) this season and ended up fifth
in fantasy points among quarterbacks. He threw for 349 yards and
three touchdowns last week against the Packers, with Larry Fitzgerald
accounting for 176 of those yards (and one score), John Brown
compiling 82 yards, and Michael Floyd snaring a pair of touchdowns.
That triumvirate of wideouts accounted for more than 3,000 yards
and 22 touchdowns during the regular season, but Palmer and Fitzgerald
are the only sure-fire plays for fantasy owners because of the
nature of the Panthers’ defense. Floyd and Brown should
see Josh Norman in coverage as Fitzgerald typically plays from
the slot, a place Norman rarely visits.
Carolina allowed Russell Wilson to throw for over 360 yards and
a trio of touchdowns during last week’s tilt with Seattle,
but because the Panthers took a big lead in the first half, the
‘Hawks had to throw, and throw often, inflating Wilson’s
numbers. For the season, Carolina was one of the better teams
in the league in holding quarterbacks, wideouts, and tight ends
to scarce amounts of fantasy points.
Running Game Thoughts: When Chris Johnson went down, the door
swung open for rookie David Johnson, and he bolted through it
with some huge performances during the latter part of the regular
season. He has stumbled a bit running the ball in his last two
contests, including his 35-yard outing last week, but Johnson
does offer fantasy owners value this week against Carolina with
his prowess as a receiver, if not necessarily a runner.
The Panthers forced the Seahawks to pretty much abandon the run
last week, and as such allowed only 78 rushing yards, 32 of which
came via quarterback Russell Wilson. During the regular season,
Carolina gave up the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the league
to opposing running backs, but was only slightly above average
in fantasy points allowed to backs due to the large volume of
receiving yards they allowed to players at that position –
the seventh-most in the league.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carolina didn’t have much need for
a downfield passing game last week against Seattle, leaving Cam
Newton with an efficient but fantasy unfriendly line of 161 yards
and one touchdown. Thankfully, 77 of those yards and the touchdown
went to the one Panthers pass-catcher which fantasy owners were
likely using – tight end Greg Olsen. He continues to be
a strong weekly play, and the same should go without saying for
Newton, even against a good Cardinals pass defense.
Arizona gave up just 261 yards and two scores to Aaron Rodgers
last week, though Randall Cobb’s injury likely had something
to do with that. During the regular season, the Cardinals surrendered
the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks,
in part due to their 19 interceptions. They also allowed the ninth-fewest
fantasy points to wideouts, but were in the middle of the league
in terms of points given up to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart rumbled for 106 yards
and two touchdowns on 19 carries last week, reaffirming that had
he not gotten hurt, he would have ended the regular season as
a top-10 fantasy back. Unfortunately, fantasy owners are in the
familiar position of having to monitor Stewart’s health,
as he has missed practice with an ankle malady. If he does hit
the field, Stewart is a solid option for fantasy owners, but not
a premium one due to Arizona’s run defense.
The Cardinals permitted the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running
backs during the regular season and allowed the fourth-fewest
rushing yards in the league to opposing backs. Where the team
struggled the most with backs was covering them as receivers,
because Arizona surrendered the 12th-most receiving yards to players
at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
