Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chiefs offer fantasy owners very little
in potential production from their passing game. Alex Smith makes
some plays with his feet, but not enough to be counted on, and
doesn’t offer upside in either yards or touchdowns. Tight
end Travis Kelce had 106 yards and two touchdowns for K.C. when
they played Houston way back in Week 1, but had just three scores
in his 15 other games and hasn’t picked up even 75 yards
since Week 6. The best option for fantasy owners is receiver Jeremy
Maclin, who was 15th in fantasy points at his position, has scored
in three straight games, and has six total touchdowns over his
last six contests. Against a tough Texans outfit, Maclin is the
best hope for a fantasy bounty.
Houston ended the 2015 season having allowed the sixth-fewest
fantasy points in the NFL to both quarterbacks and wide receivers,
and the 11th-fewest points to tight ends. The Texans stifled quarterbacks
in the second half of the season, holding every signal-caller
they faced from Week 7 on to fewer than 240 yards passing and
giving up just eight touchdown throws during that time. They also
held down most big-time wideouts they faced, with the likes of
Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Brandin Cooks and Allen Hurns (twice)
failing to pick up even 10 fantasy points against.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles
went down early this season, which dashed many fantasy owners’
hopes for a playoff spot, but didn’t do the same for the
Chiefs. Instead, the team turned to Charcandrick West and Spencer
Ware, with West getting the bulk of the work but Ware getting
more touchdowns. West started off much better than he finished,
but of the two K.C. backs, he’s more liable to produce,
though Houston’s run defense is a potential stumbling block.
The Texans surrendered the 13th-fewest fantasy points in the league
to running backs this year, but they could have been much stingier.
More than a quarter of the fantasy points they allowed were obtained
by two players – Devonta Freeman in Week 4 and Lamar Miller
in Week 7. Both backs had games with more than 30 points, at least
double the amount Houston gave up in any other contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer did a decent enough job under
center for the Texans this year, with 19 touchdown throws compared
to only seven interceptions, and the team also has a couple of
nice complementary pass-catchers, but there is really only one
name on the Texans’ offensive roster that fantasy owners
care about – DeAndre Hopkins. The third-year wideout was
sixth in fantasy points at his position this season with over
1,500 yards and 11 scores. A pair of those touchdowns came back
in Week 1 against the Chiefs, and Hopkins remains an outstanding
option against the Kansas City pass defense. Nate Washington (hip)
and Cecil Shorts (hamstring) are low-end considerations and need
to be monitored throughout the week if you’re considering
using them in playoff formats.
The Chiefs were a mixed bag this season in terms of fantasy points
allowed in the passing game. While they were slightly above average
in points allowed to quarterbacks, K.C. gave up the fewest fantasy
points in the league to tight ends but the ninth-most to wide
receivers. Six different wideouts had games with at least 115
receiving yards versus the Chiefs, and four had games with multiple
scores, including the aforementioned Hopkins. They’ve been
very stingy of late, giving up the second fewest points to wide
receivers over the last five weeks.
Running Game Thoughts: The final
week of the season was very good for Houston running backs, with
Alfred Blue running for over 100 yards and Jonathan Grimes scoring
via run and reception. Still, fantasy owners should suffer no
illusions – there is little to no upside to be had here.
Blue and Grimes have had their occasional moments this season,
but far too often have sputtered out and given fantasy owners
little reason to utilize them. Given the match-up with the Chiefs,
Blue and Grimes should continue to be on fantasy sidelines.
Only three teams allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running
backs this year than Kansas City. The team gave up the eighth-fewest
yards and ninth-fewest rushing scores to backs, with only one
runner – Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell – managing
to rack up even 90 rushing yards against them. The Chiefs even
held Adrian Peterson to a mere 60 yards in Week 6, despite the
fact Peterson carried the ball 26 times.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger thanked Rex Ryan and
the Buffalo Bills for helping to get his team into the playoffs
this season and rightfully so. If the Jets would have won and
secured a wildcard slot over the Steelers, Big Ben really wouldn’t
have had anyone to blame but himself as he came up small in two
“must win” games, going 1-1 against the beat up Ravens
and hapless Browns throwing for a combined 569 yards but with
only three touchdown passes (all coming against Cleveland) and
four bad interceptions. Roethlisberger was bailed out by the Bills
and the fact that Cleveland wasn’t willing to take a game
the Steelers nearly handed to them. In his defense, Roethlisberger
did manage 349 yards with those three touchdowns against Cleveland
without the benefit of any help from the running game once DeAngelo
Williams went down.
Overall, the Steelers passing attack was generally the most effective
and dangerous unit in the league, and at times was virtually unstoppable.
Speaking of being unstoppable, Antonio Brown finished the season
surpassing 1500 receiving yards for the second consecutive season
and is unarguably the most difficult wide receiver in the league
to cover. Roethlisberger challenged second year big play receiver
Martavis Bryant to step up his game stating Bryant needs to “toughen
up”. Bryant, who finished the season in a quiet manner,
sat out the second half of last week with a neck strain which
obviously angered the quarterback who is well-known for playing
through injury. Bryant’s size and speed helps stretch the
defense opening up the underneath for Brown and tight end/security
blanket Heath Miller. He’ll be needed during the playoffs
especially if Williams is unable to play.
The Bengals’ defense managed to contain Big Ben Roethlisberger
during the regular season holding him to an average of 272 yards
in two games and a 2:4 touchdown to interception ratio. On the
season the unit is allowing 248.5 passing yards per game while
giving up 18 passing touchdowns and grabbing 21 interceptions.
This aggressive defense recorded 42 sacks and was bolstered by
the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict who made his season debut
in the first game against Pittsburgh and has been a force ever
since.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran DeAngelo
Williams, who played extremely well during Le’Veon Bell’s
absence (suspension and injury), suffered a high ankle sprain
last week and is expected to miss the wildcard playoff round.
Williams had an outstanding season rushing for 907 yards and 11
touchdowns adding 40 receptions for 367 yards. This could be a
devastating loss for the team, as the rushing duties will now
fall on Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman. Toussaint has
only 42 yards on the season but showed some limited success last
season as a member of the Baltimore Ravens. Without Williams,
there will be even more pressure on Ben Roethlisberger and the
passing game to carry the team.
Making matters worse is the fact that the Bengals are very strong
against the run. The team has limited the opposition to 92.3 yards
per game this season with only 8 rushing touchdowns allowed. If
the Steelers get too one dimensional allowing the Bengals to pin
their ears back and go after Ben, it could spell trouble for the
Steelers given Ben’s recent turnover spree. Ben plays recklessly
at times and if he is under constant siege on Saturday night,
he’ll need to play more conservatively than usual in what
should be a tight contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton may get to avoid hearing how
he can’t win in the playoffs by default. In the midst of
an MVP caliber season, Dalton broke his thumb early in the Bengals
last game against the Steelers, an injury which will almost certainly
keep him out of action this week. There’s a chance he could
make it back for the Divisional round if Cincinnati can somehow
survive without him. Second year pro AJ McCarron, out of Alabama,
has started in Dalton’s place and has been solid, but unspectacular.
The offense has been far more conservative under McCarron, as
he’s been asked to play the game manager role while the
team relies on its strong running game and defense. The team received
a boost when tight end Tyler Eifert returned from a concussion
that forced him to miss multiple games. Eifert stepped in and
did what he does best, catching touchdowns. McCarron has been
most effective when he’s been aggressive and let the talented
A.J. Green and Marvin Jones make plays on the ball. He certainly
doesn’t lack confidence, but is limited by his lack of arm
strength and inexperience. Expect the coaching staff to continue
to keep the game plan conservative so long as the defense holds
up its end of the bargain.
If the team is forced to rely on McCarron and the passing game,
the good news is that they will be doing so against the league’s
30th ranked pass defense. In Week 16 with their playoff hopes
on the line, the Steelers allowed Ryan Mallett to throw for 274
yards and a touchdown, so it isn’t like A.J. McCarron couldn’t
find any success if needed. During the regular season the Steelers
gave up 271.9 passing yards per game and 29 passing touchdowns
(7th most FPts to QBs) as the young secondary was often over matched.
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill
struggled during most of his starts early in the season but did
start to find his groove late in the season. Hill finished the
season with only 794 yards but did score 11 touchdowns. Perhaps
the leg injury he suffered early in the season slowed him down,
but a healthy Giovani Bernard also cut into his touches. Bernard
looked better for a large part of the season but struggled in
games against the Steelers. This is a pure RBBC, with both backs
having defined roles with Hill being more of the bruiser type
and Bernard excelling in the passing game. They should both be
heavily relied upon this week, especially if the Bengals’
defense keeps the game close.
The Steelers’ run defense was stout this year however, which
could force the Bengals to the air more, especially if the Steelers
jump out quickly. The Steelers allowed only 91.2 rushing yards
per game, and only 6 rushing touchdowns on the season (3rd fewest
FPts to RBs). Don’t be surprised if this game is more of
a defensive battle than expected.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 2015 season was certainly the tale of
two halves for the Seahawks and particularly quarterback Russell
Wilson. Wilson started the season off as a huge disappointment
for fantasy owners, having thrown for just one multiple-touchdown
game in his first nine games. But from that point on, Wilson was
arguably one of fantasy football’s MVP’s down the
stretch as he threw for multiple touchdowns in each of his remaining
seven games. He was so good, in fact, that he only failed to throw
for three or more touchdowns once during that stretch. Much of
Wilson’s fantasy success can be attributed to the Seahawks’
need to throw the ball more as Marshawn Lynch was injured and
the team really didn’t have another proven, every down ball
carrier on the roster. As Wilson’s attempts increased, so
did the performance of wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Although Baldwin
was a bit disappointing in Week 17 (5 rec, 46 yds), he has certainly
been one of fantasy football’s most surprising breakout
stars. Baldwin broke the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in
his career while catching 14 touchdowns, 12 of which came in the
Seahawks’ final eight games of the regular season.
Wilson and Baldwin were likely on quite a few fantasy football
championship rosters this season and now they will look to continue
that success on into the playoffs. Their first matchup will come
against the Minnesota Vikings, the NFC North division winners
who, despite being at home, are a five point underdog for this
weekend’s contest. That should sound great to playoff fantasy
owners of Wilson and Baldwin, but despite the Vikings being just
an average fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks, they’ve
actually been quite good down the stretch. Playing against the
likes of Jay Cutler, Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers over their
final three games, the Vikings allowed an average of fewer than
13 fantasy points (standard scoring) per game to the position.
In fact, the Vikings allowed just one quarterback to score more
than 20 fantasy points against them in a game this season. Unfortunately
for them, that quarterback was Wilson. Wilson absolutely torched
the Vikings when these teams played back in Week 13, throwing
for 274 yards and three scores while adding 51 yards on the ground
and his only rushing touchdown of the season. Baldwin was also
hot that day as he caught two of those touches on five total grabs
for 94 yards. Seattle’s other two top wide receivers, Jermaine
Kearse and Tyler Lockett, have been inconsistent at best this
season but both have shown playmaking ability and both players
should be in fantasy consideration in this matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: One of the
biggest questions surrounding this Wild Card game is the health
of running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch hasn’t played since
Week 10 and had been hampered by injuries even prior to that,
but was a “full go” at practice this week according
to head coach Pete Carroll. Carroll did not indicate just how
much Lynch will play, but the questionable production recently
from Christine Michael and Bryce Brown could very well lead to
a solid workload for Lynch as early as Sunday. In fact, with the
Seahawks likely opting to activate Lynch, Michael and Fred Jackson
for third downs, we may not even see Brown on the field. Offensive
coordinator Darrell Bevell said that Lynch can have 20-25
carries. “If he’s playing, he’s going.”
Whoever is running the ball for Seattle does have an interesting
matchup as they face the Vikings and their seventh-ranked fantasy
run defense. Minnesota has been pretty good against the run as
of late having not allowed a team’s running backs to run
for a touchdown or exceed 100 yards on the ground since Week 13.
Of course, their Week 13 opponent was the Seahawks who saw the
now injured Thomas Rawls rush for 101 yards and a touchdown in
that game. Seattle has proven that they can run against the Minnesota
defense and they did so very efficiently, but fantasy production
in this game will likely come down to gameflow. If Seattle gets
out to a huge lead like they did when these teams met before,
expect Lynch to be sat down early to preserve him for what Seattle
hopes to be a third straight Super Bowl run. However, if the game
is close, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Lynch
get around 20 touches while Michael gets between five to ten.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In today’s NFL, we’ve come to
expect that quarterbacks will be the focal point of most offenses.
That wasn’t really case for the Minnesota Vikings this season,
however. Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater did show signs
of improvements from what was admittedly a good rookie season,
but he also did not show the ability to produce big numbers and
compete in shootouts. This led to a disappointing fantasy season
from a QB who many believed might be on the verge of breaking
out. Bridgewater finished the season with just 14 passing touchdowns
despite starting all 16 games for the Vikings. Perhaps his worst
performance came this past week when he and the Vikings narrowly
escaped in big road win over the Packers. This victory came not
due to Bridgewater, but rather in spite of him. The quarterback
was just 10-of-19 on the day for a measly 99 passing yards and
no touchdowns. Worse yet, he threw one of the most ill-advised,
bone-headed, left-handed passes that ended up in the hands of
a Packers defender and could have very well cost the Vikings the
game if not for a big day by the Minnesota defense.
Normally we’d follow up that kind of a story with an old
line like, “it can’t get much worse, can it?”
But in this case, it actually could. A week after the worst performance
of his young career, Bridgewater now gets the task of facing the
Legion of Boom. The Seahawks ranked second in the league in fewest
fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks this season and
they finished the season on a four game streak of allowing fewer
than 10 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’re
peaking at the right time, as they had perhaps their best performance
this past week in a huge road victory over the NFC West champion
Arizona Cardinals, holding Carson Palmer to just 129 yards and
one touchdown on 12-of-25 passing along with an interception.
When they played the Vikings back in Week 13, the Seahawks defense
held Teddy Bridgewater to just 118 yards and no touchdowns while
intercepting him once. Bridgewater is typically good at limiting
mistakes, but he’s also never played in a must-win NFL game
like this. If the Vikings do fall behind, it would not be surprising
to see another poor game from Bridgewater who seems incapable
of putting the team on his shoulders and that won’t likely
change against arguably the league’s best defense.
Running Game Thoughts: After spending nearly the entire 2014
at home, Vikings running back Adrian Peterson reminded everyone
who the best running back in football is this season as he led
the league in rushing yardage for the third time in his career.
Along with Peterson’s 1,485 yards on the ground, he also
added 11 touchdowns, the eighth time he has reached double-digit
touchdowns in his nine year career. The only time he has failed
to do so, of course, was his suspension-riddled 2014 season. Peterson’s
remarkable consistency once again makes him one of the most valuable
assets heading into the 2016 season, but before we get there,
he’ll do his best to put the Minnesota offense on his back
and carry them to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance
since 1977. What’s also been great for Peterson is that,
down the stretch, he has been able to stay healthy as the Vikings
have implemented their young back, Jerick McKinnon, to spell Peterson
and give him a rest from time to time. Despite limited touches,
McKinnon has actually been fairly productive himself, which could
allow him to be drafted deep in some playoff fantasy formats.
Peterson is unquestionably the superstar in this offense, but
things won’t be easy here on WildCard Weekend as he will
be running against the team that allowed the fewest fantasy points
to opposing running backs this season, the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle
has been excellent against running backs all year, but they’ve
been particularly great down the stretch. Over their final five
games, the Seahawks conceded an average of just 7.0 fantasy points
per game (standard scoring) to opposing running backs. That includes
a game against Peterson himself in Week 13 when they held him
to a season-low 18 rushing yards. Certainly the Vikings will need
to lean on Peterson early in this game and hopefully they will
have learned to give him more than 12 total touches in this type
of game, but if there’s no room, there’s really not
much that anyone can do – even the great Adrian Peterson.
Peterson is dealing with a lower back issue which limited him
late in Week 17 and has held him out of practice this week, but
all reports seem to indicate that he will be ready to go and should
get his usual heavy workload in what need to be a big game from
him.
Passing
Game Thoughts: What has happened to this Packers offense?
Back in August, Aaron Rodgers was ranked no lower than No.2 at
quarterback no matter where you looked. Over the past five weeks,
Rodgers hasn’t even been a QB1. In fact, he hasn’t
been close. If I told you that Blaine Gabbert has more fantasy
points than Aaron Rodgers over the past five weeks, would you
believe me? It is abundantly clear that Jordy Nelson was a much
bigger loss than we realized, but he is absolutely not the sole
reason for Rodgers’ precipitous fall from grace. Rodgers
finished the season with the lowest yardage total of his career
(excluding an injury shortened 2013) as well as the lowest completion
percentage of his career by a considerable margin (60.7% compared
to next lowest, 63.6% his first year as a starter). Randall Cobb
was the only member of the Packers’ receiving corps worth
starting and he disappointed as well, finishing as a WR3 when
being drafted as WR1.
So now for the all-important question: what do we make of an
Aaron Rodgers-led offense in a juicy playoff matchup? This situation
is incredibly difficult because as easily as we can see more of
the same underperformance from the Packers, we can just as easily
watch Aaron Rodgers remember that he’s Aaron Rodgers and
light up the Redskins for four touchdowns. The Redskins finished
as a bottom ten pass defense, allowing 258 passing yards per game
and 30 touchdowns on the season. There have been numerous times
throughout the season when football fans expected Rodgers and
the Packers to flip a switch and wake up. Any investment in the
Packers this week is just a continuation of that philosophy.
Running Game Thoughts: Mike McCarthy can’t seem to make
up his mind about Eddie Lacy. Does he want him to be the feature
back or not? The numbers would say no. Lacy has topped 15 carries
just five times all season. He eclipsed 100 yards rushing just
three times and to make matters worse, in the most recent of those
performances, the following week he totaled 4 and 23 yards respectively.
He is essentially a boom or bust touchdown dependent running back
that doesn’t score touchdowns. After scoring 13 and 11 times
over the past two seasons, Lacy managed just five this year. He
and James Starks both finished on the RB2/3 border in total points,
which is really disappointing given how many running backs got
hurt to vacate spots in the top 24.
The Redskins finished the year with one of the worst rushing
defenses in the league, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 122.6
yards per game on the ground (bottom ten pass defense plus bottom
10 rush defense = playoffs? The NFC East is good, let me tell
ya). This is the playoffs, though, and if the Packers are going
to win, it will be on the right arm of Aaron Rodgers. There are
far better options than Lacy and Starks.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Quick – name the top three fantasy
quarterbacks over the final five weeks of the regular season.
Did you say Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and…Kirk Cousins?!
Great job. I still do not entirely buy into the whole “Kirk
Cousins is a good quarterback” thing, but I cannot deny
what he’s done this season. He completed 69.8 percent of
his passes and had 34 total touchdowns against just 11 interceptions.
His numbers are certainly inflated by the 11 touchdown passes
he threw over the final three weeks, including three last week
in limited action in Dallas. The real story is the lack of turnovers.
Let’s do a quick “Before and After” study using
“You like that” as the midpoint. Before Week 7’s
“You like that” game, Cousins had thrown 8 interceptions.
After Week 7’s “You like that” game, Cousins
has thrown 3 interceptions. However, a further analysis reveals
more about Cousins’ second half. He had two very opposite
games against Dallas, but other than that, he has been remarkably
consistent post “You like that.” The Redskins have
played two quality teams since then – Carolina and New England.
Cousins’ combined stats in those two games: 44-of-70 passing
for 424 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His offensive
explosion came at the expense of the Saints, Giants, Bears, Bills,
and Eagles – none of which are playoff teams or even finished
over .500.
However, the Packers aren’t a good football team. They
are closer to those five teams than they are to the Panthers or
Patriots. In all fairness to Cousins, it must be noted that the
second half of the season came with a largely healthy Jordan Reed,
who finished as the TE2 on the year and a returning DeSean Jackson,
whom Cousins found over the top four times since his return. The
Packers quietly have had a strong season defending the pass. They
allowed just 227.6 passing yards per game and only 20 touchdowns
while forcing 16 interceptions. They were also one of six teams
to hold opposing passers to under 60 percent completion percentage.
Jordan Reed is arguably the best option at TE this week and DJax
is very much worth a spot in your lineup. I’d be hesitant
to include any other Redskins, but if you want to ride the Captain
this week, I certainly cannot fault you.
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris and Matt Jones combined
to form one of the more dysfunctional backfields of 2015. Jones
was the Redskins’ most productive and he barely cracked
the top 40 in total fantasy points amongst running backs. Jones
also missed three games. Morris played all 16 games and could
not even finish top 50. To put Morris’ futility into perspective,
Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, and Dion Lewis all finished
ahead of Morris in fantasy points. Jones was held out of last
week’s game because it didn’t matter, which gave Morris
a chance to shine. He ripped off 100 yards on 19 carries, finishing
the season how he started it – with a 100-yard performance
(his only two of the season). This is the playoffs and Jay Gruden
will play the guy that gives his team the best chance to win.
That means riding the hot hand; whoever gets it first. Assuming
Jones can play, he and Morris will split carries until one of
them looks better.
The Packers allow 4.5 yards per carry and allowed 13 rushing
touchdowns this season. They are vulnerable on the ground. However,
there is no predicting which back it will be that exploits it.
If you want to take a shot at one of the Redskins’ running
backs, then that’s your prerogative. My advice is to stay
away.
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