Passing
Game Thoughts: Meaningful Week 17 games that are expected
to be competitive are few and far between. This is one of them.
Last week’s home win over the Patriots combined with the
Steelers’ shocking loss at Baltimore put the Jets in the
driver’s seat for a wild card spot. Ryan Fitzpatrick has
been incredible as of late with the lone exception being a dud
against the Cowboys. Aside from that game, Fitzy has thrown for
multiple scores in his last four games and has only failed to
throw multiple scores twice all season (technically its three,
but rushing touchdowns count in my book – I also don’t
count the game against the Raiders where he hurt his thumb). Last
week, it was the Brandon Marshall show. He caught 8-of-10 targets
for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns.This week should be more of the
same.The Bills will not be able to cover him. Eric Decker was
poised to have his streak of 80 yards or a score broken last week
until he caught the game winner on a beautifully lofted pass that
dropped in perfectly. The streak lives.
The Bills have allowed 28 passing touchdowns on the season and
have been getting torched by competent quarterbacks. This team
has not tried in weeks, but may get up for Rex Ryan one last time
just to stick it to the Jets. It would be very Jets-like for them
to pull off a hard fought win against New England and then drop
a “win and in” in Buffalo. However, I think talent
trumps narrative in this one.
Running Game Thoughts: Does anyone
remember when Chris Ivory was an RB1? It seems so long ago. At
this point in the season, and really what he’s been for
weeks now, is a guy who hopes to see half the snaps and fall into
the end zone from the goal line. The problem is that the Jets
have transitioned to a team that passes in the red zone, which
seems natural given their two stud receivers. That takes away
the touchdown opportunities. Without scores, Ivory has limited
value. He is a zero in the passing game, having just 30 receptions
on the season, and he no longer sees enough volume to be effective
on the ground. Bilal Powell has been superior in all facets of
the game since he returned from injury and is unquestionably the
preferred fantasy option in this backfield. Powell missed practice
Thursday, which is never a good sign, but indications are that
he will play. Ivory dominated the carries when these teams last
played, racking up 99 yards on 18 carries, but so much has changed
since Week 10. The Bills have a middling run defense, allowing
4.3 yards per carry and 10 rushing scores on the season. There
is no reason to invest in this running game.
Editor's Note: Bilal
Powell (ankle) missed practice all week and may miss this game.
If he does, Ivory becomes an interesting DFS play in Week 17.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cowboys really suck the life out of
opposing quarterbacks. Tyrod Taylor did nothing through the air,
throwing just 18 times for 179 yards with an interception. He
tried to salvage his day with his rushing totals, but without
a touchdown, he pretty much bottomed out. The Cowboys completely
anemic offense allowed the Bills to just run-run-run. The only
life in this passing game was Sammy Watkins, who caught 5 passes
for 84 yards. I’d be impressed if he was able to match that
total against the Jets this weekend.
When these teams met in Week 10, Watkins had just 3 catches for
14 yards. Granted that was two weeks before he turned the corner
on this season, but still very discouraging with Darrelle Revis
once again expected to cover him. The Jets just held Tom Brady
to 231 yards and just 1 touchdown. The Jets are fifth in the league
in interceptions with 18 and lead the league in opponents’
completion percentage against at a miniscule 56.7 percent. This
week’s daily lineups should feature zero Bills.
Running Game Thoughts: In Week 10, LeSean McCoy had his way with
the Jets’ top ranked run defense for 112 yards on 19 carries.
In Week 17, LeSean McCoy will be watching from the sidelines as
Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee split carries. Williams out-carried
Gillislee 19-7 last week and both backs found the end zone (Gillislee
really found it twice, but his long touchdown was ruled downed
at the 1 and then Williams stole it). Williams is still averaging
5.7 yards per carry this season and has always played well in
Shady’s absence. Gillislee has come out of nowhere and averaged
10.4 yards per carry, albeit across a very limited 23 carries
on the season.
The Bills’ running game is very effective. The problem
is the Jets rushing defense is near the top of the league in just
about every category imaginable. They are tops in touchdowns against,
second in yards against, fourth in yards per carry against, and
second in attempts against. The Bills are going to have to run
effectively to win this game. I just can’t see the Jets
allowing themselves to miss the playoffs because they were swept
by the Bills. That means stopping the run. This week’s daily
lineups should feature zero Bills.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Patriots close out the season in South
Beach where a win locks up home field throughout the playoffs.
With a bye already clinched, the Patriots will certainly be trying,
but don’t expect any injured players to be making early
returns. That rules out Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. I expect
both to play in the divisional round, though. As for this week,
it will likely be Gronk and then everyone else. Tom Brady distributed
the ball fairly evenly against the Jets last week with Gronk catching
4 balls, Keshawn Martin catching 7, and both backs catching 5
each. Considered possibly the greatest coach of all time, Bill
Belichick failed on multiple fronts last week. The offense completely
gave up at the end of the first half. When you have Tom Brady,
over a minute remaining, and two timeouts, you don’t give
up, yet the Patriots just sat on the ball and went to the half
down a touchdown. The overall game plan was abysmal.
The Patriots beat the Jets in Week 7 because they avoided the
league’s top rushing defense by throwing 54 times. Last
week, Brady attempted 31 passes, his second lowest total on the
season. The Patriots ran the ball, not counting reverses, 18 times,
and it went about as well as expected (49 yards). Then, for the
grand finale, Belichick decided that he didn’t want the
ball first in overtime. He must’ve forgotten his quarterback
is Tom Brady. Brady has been just another guy at the quarterback
position the past three weeks. He lit up the Dolphins for 356
yards and 4 touchdowns when these teams last played, but we haven’t
seen that Brady in weeks. The matchup is enticing, but there are
likely better, less expensive options this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Two weeks ago, someone called Joey Iosefa
led the Patriots in carries. This week, he is back on the practice
squad after being released and resigned. Two weeks ago, Steven
Jackson was unemployed. Last week, he handled seven carries. Brandon
Bolden is likely still the lead back here, if you can call him
that, but the fact remains that James White is the only Patriots
running back worth considering and he doesn’t even run the
ball. He’s been the closest thing to Dion Lewis and might
be worth a look in daily this week in a favorable matchup. The
Dolphins allow the third most rushing yards per game and have
allowed 12 rushing touchdowns so the Patriots should have success
on the ground. The problem is, it won’t be just one guy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When Gisele called out Wes Welker in 2012
for essentially dropping a Super Bowl title, she took a lot of
heat. What Brent Grimes’ wife just did to Ryan Tannehill
is borderline criminal. Despite the fact that I agree with her,
you just don’t say things like that about your husband’s
teammate, let alone his quarterback. Tannehill failed to throw
a touchdown for the second consecutive game last week and did
so against a Colts defense ranked in the bottom five in defending
the pass. Jarvis Landry did his usual Jarvis Landry things with
111 yards on 7 catches. He is always a reliable weekly option.
DeVante Parker saw 10 targets, but managed to reel in only 4 of
them, albeit for 93 yards. Parker has been inconsistent since
taking over the No.2 role, but I think we’ve seen enough
to know that he has the potential to be a fantasy relevant receiver.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t come just yet so stay away from
him this week. The Patriots allow just 233.9 passing yards per
game and have allowed only 22 passing touchdowns on the season.
Tannehill was awful the last time he faced the Patriots. He is
absolutely not an option this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins decided to give the ball
to Lamar Miller last week. However, he wasn’t very effective,
totaling just 31 yards on 15 carries. Jay Ajayi wasn’t much
better with 9 carries for 23 yards. If Miller didn’t fall
into the end zone (and only after Ajayi was stuffed twice) it
would’ve been another useless performance. When these teams
last played, Ajayi wasn’t active yet. Even so, Miller saw
just 9 carries for 15 yards. The Patriots are top 10 against the
run, allowing 98.9 rushing yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns
on the season. There are undoubtedly better options for your daily
lineup than either Dolphins back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In a scenario pretty much everyone expected
when predicting the season back in August, the Washington Redskins
locked up the NFC East last Saturday night in a win over the Eagles.
Oh. No? That wasn’t what everything thought would happen?
In an injury riddled year, the likes of which I hope we never
see again, the Redskins benefited from the misfortune of the other
teams in the division en route to a divisional crown. Since the
NFC East is so terrible, the Redskins are locked into the No.4
seed, which makes Week 17 a glorified exhibition. Do not expect
to see Kirk Cousins, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed for more
than a series or two as the Redskins rest their starters ahead
of their first playoff game in three years. If you were considering
any Redskins at all, remember how awful this team looked the last
time they played the Cowboys, earning the honor of being the only
team to lose to the Cowboys with Matt Cassel at quarterback. The
Cowboys have been a top pass defense all season so this would
not have been a good spot even if the game meant something. It
does not. Avoid all Redskins.
Running Game Thoughts: I’m not sure if Alfred Morris and
Matt Jones are good enough to warrant resting. Therein lies the
problem. If they are rested, you can’t use them, and if
they aren’t rested, you still can’t use them. The
Redskins as a team average 3.6 yards per carry and Morris and
Jones have been in a timeshare for the majority of the season.
It’s been reported that Jones suffered a setback with his
hip and likely won’t play. Expect Chris Thompson and Pierre
Thomas to get some extra opportunities. The Cowboys have allowed
the 4th most rushing touchdowns this season with 16, but you don’t
want to take a shot on one of these backs falling into the end
zone. Avoid all Redskins.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This will be the last time I get to write
about my Cowboys this season and it is truly a merciful ending
to the worst Cowboys season since the days of Quincy Carter and
Chad Hutchinson. At this time last year, Tony Romo, Dez Bryant,
and DeMarco Murray were preparing to host the Lions in the first
round of the playoffs. Now, Murray is wasting away in Philly while
Romo and Bryant are on Injured Reserve. As excited as I was to
see Kellen Moore get his chance, it’s abundantly clear there’s
simply nothing there. He will start again this week as he gets
one last chance to earn the 2016 backup role.
The spot couldn’t be much better against a Redskins defense
that’s allowed 300 yards or multiple passing touchdowns
in every non-Cowboys game since their Week 10 bye and one that
will be resting starters. Unfortunately, Moore hasn’t exactly
been given much to work with. Brice Butler will operate as his
primary target and could be a sneaky home run play in the daily
game. Terrance Williams will continue to be given the world and
do nothing with it because he’s simply not that good. The
door closed on this passing offense the instant Romo went down
for the second time. Do not try and reopen it for one more week.
Running Game Thoughts: If there is one player in this game to
consider using at all, it’s Darren McFadden. He rushed for
99 yards on 19 carries last week and has been effective regardless
of who has been playing quarterback. He hasn’t scored much,
but if it means anything, the last time he did was against the
Redskins Week 13. That was also the only game where he lost a
fumble and he actually lost two that week. Averaging over 100
yards on the ground the past three weeks, McFadden’s renaissance
tour has one more appearance to make and it doesn’t appear
as if the Cowboys intend to feature a younger back. The Redskins
allow 4.8 yards per carry and have allowed 10 rushing scores on
the season. With their starters likely sitting out on defense
too, DMC is an enticing option in a week with so few of them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s always difficult to figure out
what will happen in meaningless Week 17 games. However, every
so often, something happens that may actually matter. On December
7, Chip Kelly stated that he “made a commitment” to
the Eagles and intends to “see it through.” Tuesday
night, Eagles owner, Jeffrey Lurie, made clear that he does not
feel the same way when he fired the head coach with just one game
remaining in the season. Kelly’s departure could mean radical
changes for the offense next year as the fast pace was his brainchild.
It is unlikely that the Eagles will change anything this week,
though. More likely to make a difference is the fact that Kelly
did not exactly endear himself well to his players. It is entirely
possible that the Eagles come out and play inspired football to
stick it to their former coach and kind of let him know that the
problem wasn’t them.
The Eagles absolutely faceplanted last week in a game where a
win would have given them control of the NFC East. Since the game
was so lopsided, Sam Bradford was throwing early and often. He
attempted 56 passes, completing 37 of them for a season high 380
yards. Somehow he managed to throw just one touchdown, which went
to Jordan Matthews. Matthews has looked much better in the second
half of this season and displayed the talent we all knew he possessed.
His arrow is pointing upwards for 2016 and he has a great opportunity
to end this season on a high note against the Giants laughably
bad secondary. Both JMatt and Zach Ertz look like solid value
plays this week against a team that still ranks 32nd in passing
yards allowed at 297.9 while also having allowed 29 passing touchdowns.
Running Game Thoughts: No Eagles back saw more than 5 carries
last week with DeMarco Murray leading the team in rushing with
27 yards. Both Murray and Ryan Mathews found the end zone, but
neither can be relied on given their inconsistent usage. Chip
Kelly’s departure probably improves Murray’s chances
of returning to Philly next year as perhaps the next coach won’t
try and take a downhill runner and make him run sweeps all the
time. The Giants were torched last week by Adrian Peterson and
Jerick McKinnon for a total of 193 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29
rushes. The Giants have allowed the 7th most rushing touchdowns
on the season and allow 121.5 rushing yards per game so the opportunity
is there. I actually have confidence in the Eagles running game
to perform well this week. The problem is it is not worth guessing
who the primary beneficiary will be.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you ever want to know exactly what it
looks like when a team completely stops trying, I would direct
you to Giants-Vikings Week 16. There are few things I enjoy more
in sports than Eli Manning falling flat on his face. I will give
credit where it is due – Manning has played well this season.
A 4000-yard, 30-plus touchdown campaign is nothing to scoff at.
After back-to-back games with 4 touchdown passes and just 1 turnover,
Manning looked like he simply did not care last week, completing
just 51.7 percent of his passes for 234 yards with 1 touchdown
and 3 interceptions. He was operating without Odell Beckham, but
that does not excuse this level of futility.
He’ll get Beckham back this week, who went 7-61-1 in his
first meeting with the Eagles Week 6. The Eagles have allowed
the second most passing touchdowns on the season with 34 so the
chances should be there. This one will come down to how much of
an effort the Giants actually give in what could be (and should
be) Tom Coughlin’s last game as head coach.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game has been the laughingstock
of the league for the entire season, but something changed the
last two weeks. The Giants actually committed to giving the ball
to Rashad Jennings as their clear lead back and he’s responded
with a combined 181 yards on 30 carries over those two weeks.
Two weeks ago, non-Jennings backs combined for 10 carries. Last
week, they saw just 5. The Eagles allow 129.7 rushing yards per
game so if the Giants commit to Jennings again, he could be a
sneaky value play this week. Given the state of the Giants as
a whole, it is still a risk, but in a season where few running
backs are reliable, there are certainly worse options than Jennings.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a shaky start, Jameis Winston has
cemented himself as a future fantasy star and currently ranks
14th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. He’s thrown for
more than 650 yards with four touchdowns in his last two games,
and the last time he faced Carolina Winston had 287 yards and
a pair of scores, but with four interceptions. He will be without
Vincent Jackson this week, but Mike Evans will play, albeit with
a tough match-up. A decent start at tight end could be Austin
Seferian-Jenkins, who had 60 yards and a score last week and didn’t
play the first time Tampa met up with Carolina.
The Panthers have had some struggles recently against opposing
quarterbacks, and have not had any success covering Julio Jones
(though they’re not alone in that department), but for the
year just four teams have given up fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks
this season than Carolina, who have also allowed the 10th-fewest
points to wideouts but are only slightly above average in points
surrendered to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
only managed 49 yards last week against the Bears, but he did
find the end zone for the sixth time this season. He’s third
among running backs in fantasy points, and the last time Martin
faced off against the Panthers he had 106 yards and one score,
and should still be considered a RB1 this week despite the match-up.
Carolina has given up the 10th-fewest fantasy points in the league
to running backs this season, and no back has gained more than
107 yards against them. They have been prone to allowing rushing
scores lately though, with a back rushing for a touchdown in three
of the last four games against them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Panthers lost last week, but that won’t
stop Cam Newton from getting the league’s MVP trophy at
the end of the year. He leads all NFL players in fantasy points
as well, and anyone who wants to call him the fantasy MVP shouldn’t
get much of an argument, especially considering his lack of receivers.
He may be minus one of those wideouts, Ted Ginn (knee) this week,
but Newton should still be delivering plenty of throws to Greg
Olsen, who is fourth among tight ends in fantasy points and should
be starting against the Bucs.
Tampa is smack dab in the middle of the NFL in fantasy points
allowed to quarterbacks for the year, and though they’ve
done fairly well covering tight ends, they have also permitted
the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. On four different
occasions this year, the Bucs have allowed a receiver to catch
multiple touchdowns in a single game.
Running Game Thoughts: It isn’t
known if Jonathan Stewart (foot) will suit up this week, but even
if he does, a heavy workload seems unlikely as the Panthers will
want him at full strength heading into the playoffs. Cameron Artis-Payne
will probably be the lead back – unless you count Newton
– and the rookie from Auburn probably shouldn’t be
counted on as anything more than a flex play against Tampa.
The Buccaneers have been decent if unspectacular against opposing
running backs this season, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points
in the league to players at that position. And though they have
not allowed 90 yards to a back since Week 3, the team has given
up a rushing score to a runner in each of their three previous
games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even with a foot injury, Drew Brees managed
an outstanding game last week against the Jaguars, throwing for
more than 400 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now thrown
for 300 or more yards in three straight contests, and has tossed
three scores in three of his last four games. Brees, who threw
for 312 yards and touchdown in his last meeting with Atlanta,
does most of his damage throwing to Brandin Cooks, who is ninth
among wideouts in fantasy scoring. The duo has a tough match-up,
but shouldn’t be sitting on fantasy benches against the
Falcons, and neither should Ben Watson (knee), who amassed 127
yards and a score when New Orleans and Atlanta previously met.
The Falcons have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks this year, and only the Broncos have surrendered
fewer points to wide receivers, with just two wideouts even breaking
the 65-yard mark against Atlanta since Week 6. The team has had
difficulty with tight ends however, having permitted the sixth-most
fantasy points in the league to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Tim Hightower
has been getting a ton of work since Mark Ingram went down, and
the fantasy owners who scooped him up have been the beneficiaries.
He ran for 122 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week, while
also pulling in 47 receiving yards. Hightower is a legit RB1 this
week due to a very favorable match-up with the Falcons.
Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the league
to running backs, and it isn’t because they give up a ton
of yards. The Falcons are actually in the middle of the NFL in
terms of yards surrendered to backs, but only the 49ers have given
up more rushing scores to runners, and just three teams have ceded
more receiving yards to backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Falcons beat the Panthers last week
with Matt Ryan doing what he does best – throwing to Julio
Jones. Ryan had 306 passing yards, 178 of which went to Jones,
who also caught the QB’s lone touchdown throw. Ryan has
been a huge disappointment this year, and isn’t even in
the top-15 in fantasy points at his position, but he and Jones
are must-starts against an awful New Orleans pass defense.
There isn’t much to be said about the horridness of the
Saints’ pass defense that hasn’t already been said.
They have surrendered the most fantasy points and touchdown throws
to quarterbacks, the fourth-most fantasy points and most touchdown
catches to wide receivers, and the most fantasy points and receiving
yards to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
ran for 73 yards and a touchdown last week in his team’s
win over Carolina, and he still holds a lead over Adrian Peterson
in the race for top fantasy running back. Freeman’s chances
to win the title are good considering his opponent this week,
a Saints team that he scorched for 156 total yards and two scores
the last time the teams met up.
New Orleans has a run defense that is nearly as bad as their pass
defense, with the team having allowed the most fantasy points
and receiving yards in the league to opposing running backs, and
the third-most rushing yards to players at the position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles has been a revelation for
fantasy owners this season, ranking third in fantasy points at
his position. He had another hugely productive day last week against
the Saints, with 368 yards and four touchdowns. Each of Bortles’
top wideouts, Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, had over 100 yards
with a touchdown in the contest, and each is in the top-12 in
fantasy scoring among wide receivers. The pair also found the
end zone the last time they played the Texans, and despite Houston’s
solid work against the pass this year, Bortles, Hurns, Robinson,
and Julius Thomas should each be in starting lineups for fantasy
owners.
The Texans have permitted the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the
NFL to quarterbacks, the 11th-fewest points to tight ends, and
the seventh-fewest points to wide receivers. They have not allowed
a quarterback to throw for 235 yards since Week 7, and only one
wideout has breached the 80-yard mark against them since Week
8.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon
(knee) sat out last week, and could do the same this week, leaving
the running game in the hands of Denard Robinson and Jonas Gray.
Neither is a particularly appealing fantasy option, though Robinson
obviously has the higher upside of the two. Even if Yeldon does
return, avoid using any Jacksonville back this week against the
Texans as OC Greg Olson hinted the plan is to “get a good
look” at Gray.
Houston has been just above average in terms of fantasy points
allowed to opposing running backs this season, having surrendered
the 14th-fewest points in the league. They are a middle of the
pack team in nearly every statistical category, though it should
be noted they have permitted just one rushing score to a back
since Week 8.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Houston dominated a lifeless Tennessee outfit
last week, with Brandon Weeden leading the way, throwing for 200
yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’ll head back to the bench
this week though, as Brian Hoyer has been cleared to return from
his concussion. Hoyer is lucky enough to be able to throw to DeAndre
Hopkins, who had 117 yards and a touchdown last week, and collected
148 yards and two scores the last time he suited up against Jacksonville.
Only three teams have given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks
than the Jaguars, and though they are in the middle of the NFL
in points allowed to wideouts, they’ve also surrendered
the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Jags were shredded
for 412 yards and three scores by Drew Brees last week, and have
allowed 3 or more touchdown throws in five games this year.
Running Game Thoughts: Like their
opponents this week, the Texans offer little for fantasy owners
in terms of a running game. Alfred Blue is the lead back and has
had some moments this year, but Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes
also get carries. None of the aforementioned runners should be
in fantasy lineups this week, despite a good match-up with the
Jaguars.
Jacksonville has permitted the ninth-most fantasy points in the
NFL to opposing running backs, but even though they’ve allowed
four rushing scores to backs over their last four games, it isn’t
all due to their run defense. The Jags have given up 840 receiving
yards to opposing backs, the third-most in the league, as well
as four receiving scores.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Titans threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns
the last time they faced the Colts, but that was with Marcus Mariota
under center. He remains injured, which means Zach Mettenberger
will once again be under center and once again be ignored by fantasy
owners. The only pass-catcher the Titans have that should interest
fantasy owners is Delanie Walker, who is fifth in fantasy points
among tight ends and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week. He
had 68 yards the last time he faced Indy and should be starting
this week. WR Kendall Wright missed practice Wednesday and Thursday
and should miss this game with a knee injury.
The Colts have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points in
the league to quarterbacks and the 13th-most points to tight ends,
but where they’ve really struggled is containing opposing
wide receivers. Indy has given up the second-most receiving yards
and fifth-most fantasy points to players at that position, and
in their last six games, seven different wideouts have gained
at least 90 yards against them.
Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t
a player in the Titans backfield that should be of any interest
to fantasy owners, unless Antonio Andrews, David Cobb or Bishop
Sankey strikes your fancy. But they shouldn’t, because with
the exception of Andrews on occasion, none of them have done a
thing that should instill confidence as they take on the Colts.
Indianapolis has had plenty of trouble against running backs this
season, having allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to players
at that position, and allowing six different backs to amass 90
or more rushing yards. The Colts have had some success recently
holding runners out of the end zone, however, having ceded just
two scores to backs since Week 8.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts lost Andrew Luck, and now Matt
Hasselbeck has gone down, leaving the team with Charlie Whitehurst
under center. Except he got hurt too after completing nine of
his 14 throws for 78 yards and has been placed on IR with a hamstring
injury. The team has signed Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley this
week and both are competing with Stephen Morris to be the Week
17 starter. It’s hard to imagine any of these QBS having
any type of impact in Week 17. The nightmare quarterback situation
also hurts the status of T.Y. Hilton, who is now the only Indianapolis
pass catcher worthy of being in fantasy lineups. He had 94 yards
the last time he faced the Titans, and should be a decent WR2
option against them this week.
Tennessee may have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks
this year, but they have also permitted the third-most touchdown
passes and fifth-most fantasy points to players at that position.
Naturally, that has led to the team surrendering plenty of points
to opposing pass-catchers, with the Titans having allowed the
10th-most points to wideouts and the eighth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
has probably been better than most fantasy owners realize. He
did not have a single 100-yard game this year (and just one with
at least 90 yards), but he has scored a total of seven times and
is currently 10th in fantasy scoring among running backs. Gore
had 86 yards and a pair of scores the last time he faced Tennessee,
and should be a decent RB2 once again this week.
The Titans have been solid against opposing run games this year,
having allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points in the league
to running backs. They have given up 60 yards to a back just once
since Week 11, and only one rushing score in that same time frame.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week Ryan Mallet auditioned for the
2016 backup role to Joe Flacco and performed well in an upset
win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mallet threw for 274 yards and
a touchdown. He looked sharp while using a short passing game
to pick apart a poor Steelers secondary. With a new quarterback
in place it was some depth chart wide receivers making plays for
the Ravens as Chris Matthews caught the touchdown pass and Jeremy
Butler was heavily involved. However, Kamar Aiken, as usual, was
the main target for the Ravens catching all 8 of his targets for
66 yards. Mallet will not be a starting option in daily or those
leagues that have a Week 17 fantasy championship game, but once
again Aiken could be an option in PPR leagues.
On the season the Bengals defense is allowing 246.3 passing yards
per game while giving up 17 passing touchdowns and grabbing 19
interceptions on the season. The Bengals are one of only two teams
that have more interceptions on the season than touchdown passes.
Running Game Thoughts: Head Coach
John Harbaugh was true to his word that the “punishment”
for Allen’s Week 15 fumble would not carry over to Week
16 and the coach was rewarded for his loyalty. The rookie out
of USC totaled over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in the win.
Both Allen and Terrence West were able to thrash a decent Pittsburgh
run defense, and with both backs looking good to finish off the
season, perhaps the team will see itself as set at the position
for the 2016 season.
Expectations should be tempered against a Bengals team that has
been very strong against the run. The Bengals have limited the
opposition to 94.5 yards per game this season with only 8 rushing
touchdowns allowed. The team did allow C.J. Anderson to run through
them with ease during a furious second half comeback by the Broncos
this past Monday Night, so perhaps the similarly built Allen could
find some running room as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: AJ McCarron looked very good in the first
half of last week’s game before his second half struggles
allowed the Broncos back into the game. McCarron finished 22-of-35
for 200 yards and a touchdown. A.J. Green and Marvin Jones helped
make McCarron look good with some amazing catches and runs after
the catch. Tyler Eifert missed another game while in the concussion
protocol and his presence has been missed. It’s likely he
should make it back this week but be sure to check the news wire
for updates. McCarron hurt his hand attempting to recover a fumble
in Overtime on the winning play for the Broncos, and his status
is uncertain for Week 17, but he really isn’t a fantasy
option anyway.
The Baltimore pass defense stood tall last week against Big Ben
in an upset victory but has been poor more often than not this
season. The Ravens are allowing 239 passing yards per game and
have allowed 28 passing touchdowns with only 6 interceptions.
It’s likely that the defense will suffer a letdown in a
meaningless Week 17 game after last week’s game against
their hated rival.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals
have been a pure RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard and
both have been mostly effective in their roles. Hill failed to
find the endzone last week which has been the only thing providing
him with fantasy value, making him a risky start most weeks. Bernard
meanwhile has struggled to run the ball the last several weeks
after starting the season strongly. Both backs have eaten into
each other’s fantasy value, and there’s no reason
to expect anything different this upcoming week.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league.
They are allowing only 101.1 rushing yards per game with 9 rushing
scores on the season but those numbers have been creeping up in
recent weeks as the offense has struggled to posses the ball.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford came out this week to advocate
for new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter to be brought back
next season. And why not, as Stafford has been playing well ever
has since the team made the switch at OC. Since the Week 9 bye,
Stafford has completed 68% of his passes while throwing for 16
touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. While it’s mostly been
Golden Tate and not Calvin Johnson benefitting from Stafford’s
resurgence, last week saw Johnson finally rise up the scoreboard
with 6 catches for 77 yards and a score. With Tate and tight end
Eric Ebron both being dynamic playmakers as well, the play-calling
has avoid targeting Johnson when he’s been double teamed
and while Johnson owners may not be happy about it, it’s
a strategy that has worked.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense
playing far better than anyone could have realistically expected
prior to the season. The pass defense is the fourth ranked unit
in the league, allowing only 220.7 yards per game. However, the
Bears have allowed 28 touchdowns on the season, but most came
early on before the unit gelled into what it has become. This
should be an interesting matchup with a hot passing attack going
against a stout pass defense.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions
have been the worst rushing offense in the league this season,
but have shown some signs of life in recent weeks. Ameer Abdullah,
in particular, was finally finding some running room in Weeks
13-15, but struggled once again in Week 16. This has been a three-man
RBBC with Abdullah, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick splitting touches
all season which has limited the fantasy value of each back. Don’t
expect anything to change in Week 17.
It should help, however, that the Bears are a far below average
run defense, allowing 124.5 yards per game with 9 rushing touchdowns
on the season. Ideally the Lions will be looking to exploit their
advantage and run the ball which will only help the passing game
open up even more.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has also had a career resurgence
this season, albeit as more of a game manager than a fantasy contributor.
The Bears have run a very conservative passing attack which has
benefitted Cutler who had become a turnover machine the last couple
of the seasons, but has limited his fantasy production. Alshon
Jeffery is the star of this passing game and continues to put
up big numbers almost every week that he’s been healthy,
but the problem is he’s missed six games this season and
will be held out this week as well with a hamstring injury that
has plagued him throughout 2015. His size and speed combo make
him a difficult matchup and that combined with the volume he sees
from Cutler make him a great option and virtually matchup proof,
but he can’t score you points from the sidelines. The running
backs, WR Eddie Royal and TE Zach Miller (toe) will be the primary
targets for Cutler.
The Lions’ pass defense had struggled in the early part
of the season but has played much better over the second half
of the season. The recent surge has moved the Lions up to the
14th spot in the rankings. The team is now allowing 237.5 passing
yards per game and 25 touchdowns on the season to opposing quarterbacks.
Darius Slay has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league
over that span.
Running Game Thoughts: Since his
return from injury, Matt Forte has been in a backfield timeshare
with rookie Jeremy Langford who was very productive in Forte’s
absence. Outside of Week 13 when Forte had 26 touches against
the 49ers, this has been a true split which at times has been
in favor of the rookie. In the last three weeks Langford has led
the team in backfield touches and looked explosive last week against
the Buccaneers. Forte and Langford have similar skill sets so
it isn’t even a case where each back has a defined role.
Forte realizes that he will not be back with the team next season,
but he’s still good enough and deserves enough respect that
the team will continue to use him while also further auditioning
Langford. In what may be his final appearance as a Bear at Soldier
Field, this could be a week where the team allows him to bear
(no pun intended) much of the workload. Fantasy owners will need
to weigh their options and hope for a score when deciding on either
back at this point.
It helps that the Lions’ run defense has been very poor
during the course of the 2015. The team is allowing 113.1 yards
per game on the ground and has yielded a league worst 18 rushing
touchdowns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing
game came up small against a depleted Baltimore Ravens team in
a game that may cost them a playoff spot. Overall, when Ben has
been under center this has been one of the best passing attacks
in the league. Antonio Brown struggled for a few weeks with Mike
Vick at the helm but he still finished as the No. 1 overall wide
receiver in PPR leagues once again. With Markus Wheaton finally
stepping up, Ben is loaded with options and has carved up most
defenses outside of the NFC North but has struggled relatively
inside his division. He did dominate the Browns in Week 10 to
the tune of a 379-3-1 stat line.
The Browns will be fielding a pass defense that has yielded the
third most passing touchdowns in the league with 31 TDs. The Browns’
should be up for their “Super Bowl Week” but it’s
unlikely to make much of a difference here unless Ben collapses
once again.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo
Williams has found the fountain of youth and has played beyond
what anyone could have expected in Le’Veon Bell’s
absence. The team will need Williams and his 32-year-old legs
at least one more week and perhaps into the playoffs with a little
help from the Buffalo Bills. Williams struggled in Week 10 against
the Browns gaining only 54 yards on 17 carries but has 899 rushing
yards and 11 TDs on the ground this season and has been a major
contributor in the passing games as well. Against a terrible Browns’
run defense, his owners should not expect a repeat of Week 10.
The Browns’ defense is allowing a league worst 135 yards
per game, at 4.76 yards per carry, on the ground and has yielded
11 rushing touchdowns. Williams should be in line for a big game
this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Johnny Manziel has played fairly well during
his late season audition but unfortunately he is now in the concussion
protocol and will miss this game. That leaves the uninspiring
Austin Davis as the team’s starting quarterback all but
robbing fans of a potential upset that would knock their most
hated rivals out of the playoffs. The lone bright spot in the
passing game has been veteran tight end Gary Barnidge. Barnidge
at 6’6” and 250 pounds has been a redzone monster
and has 977 yards with 9 touchdowns on the season despite shaky
quarterback play.
The young Steelers’ secondary has faded quickly after a
decent start to the season. The Steelers are allowing 278.2 passing
yards per games and have given up 29 passing scores. This will
be a favorable matchup, but it’s difficlut to see the Browns
taking advantage given the lack of any serious weapons in the
passing game, and Davis is a backup level quarterback at best.
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell
has had an up and down season but has finished strongly with 256
yards and 3 touchdowns in the last three games. He should see
much of the heavy lifting this week with rookie Duke Johnson being
mixed in and handling most of the passing game work.
The Steelers’ run defense has been stout thus far and should
make it difficult for the Browns to establish a ground attack.
The team is allowing only 91.5 yards per game, and only 6 rushing
touchdowns on the season. For those playing this week you would
be advised to look elsewhere for help at running back despite
Crowell’s recent hot play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Adrian Peterson forced out of the game
with an ankle injury in Week 15 the team was forced to rely on
Teddy Bridgewater and he had the best game of his career with
231 yards passing a 4 passing touchdowns and a rushing score.
That production was short lived and the typical 2015 Bridgewater
performance was back in Week 16 as he finished with 168 passing
yards and a touchdown. The game plan for the Vikings has been
to run the ball with their future Hall of Famer and play defense.
That shouldn’t change this week.
Making matters worse for the Vikings, the Packers have defended
the pass well, allowing 236.7 passing yards per game with 20 passing
touchdowns on the season. Their pass rush has been a difference
maker and should be tough on Bridgewater behind a struggling offensive
line.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson
has been a major part of the offensive game plan and the team
should be expected to continue its ground dominated attack with
the division on the line. Peterson is still one of the very best
runners in the league and his 1,639 total yards with 10 touchdowns
is among the best in the league. Jerick McKinnon has seen increased
usage the last two weeks (10,11 touches) and could cut into Peterson’s
workload a bit.
The Packers’ run defense is allowing 116.9 yards per game
on the ground with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season which presents
a good matchup for Peterson. In what should be a close game, Peterson
should be a major part of the game plan in a meaningful game for
both teams.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to explain Aaron Rodgers’
struggles in 2015, but he does still have his team in position
to win the division and a home playoff game. Rodgers had his worst
game of the season last week against a tough Cardinal defense
completing 15-of-28 passes for 151 yards with a touchdown and
an interception. Over his last six games he’s struggled
completing only 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,260 yards with
nine TDs and four picks. As a result of Rodger’s struggles
– or perhaps one of the reasons for them – his pass
catchers are all having down seasons as well. As strange as it
may be to say this, right now it’s hard to recommend any
member of this passing game.
The Vikings’ pass defense is a top 10 unit allowing 232.5
yards per game and 23 touchdown passes. The team has received
outstanding play from corner backs Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman
and should be able to hold a struggling passing attack at bay.
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers
usage of Eddie Lacy and veteran James Starks has frustrated fantasy
owners all season. Lacy has rushed for only 724 yards with 3 touchdowns
after going for over 1,100 yards in each of his first two seasons
while averaging 10 rushing touchdowns. He has been demoted to
a backup role, struggled due to an ankle injury and disciplined
for missing team curfew at various points this season making him
a risky start for his owners.
The Vikings are allowing 111.5 rushing yards per game on the season
with 7 scores on the ground making this matchup even less attractive.
The Packers could look to rely on the running game this week with
Rodgers struggling, but it’s would be risky to rely on either
Packer back this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The hot streak for the Seattle passing game
continued this past week when Russell Wilson notched his sixth
straight multi-touchdown game. He threw for 289 yards in a surprising
home loss to the Rams and while he made some mistakes including
a fumble and an interception, Wilson has actually been excellent
at avoiding turnovers, especially over this recent six game span.
In fact, the interception he threw against the Rams was the only
one he’s thrown during the six game stretch where he’s
thrown 21 touchdown passes. Wilson continues to get the job done
with his legs as well, adding at least a few fantasy points per
week on a fairly consistent basis. His top receiver, Doug Baldwin,
has been shockingly effective as of late as well. Baldwin caught
eight of the 10 targets that came his way against the Rams and
he has now scored a whopping 11 touchdowns over just his past
five games.
Wilson and Baldwin have been beasts as of late, but they do have
a difficult matchup in front of them here in Week 17 as they head
to Arizona to face the NFC West division champions, the Arizona
Cardinals. Arizona was the last team that held Wilson to fewer
than two touchdown passes in a game and that happened all the
way back in Week 10 when he was only able to muster 240 yards
and a single touchdown pass while also throwing an interception.
Baldwin still prospered in that game, however, as he caught seven
passes for 134 yards and a touchdown, which was the start of what
has been an unbelievable and surprising stretch of elite fantasy
production. With Tyrann Mathieu out, the Seahawks might be able
to get some favorable matchups for Baldwin if he plays in the
slot, but he’ll likely see a lot of cornerback Patrick Peterson
now that Baldwin has seen such an uptick in production.
Running Game Thoughts: Since Russell Wilson entered the league
and heading into the 2015 season, no team had thrown the ball
fewer times per game than the Seahawks. This meant, of course,
that the Seahawks were one of the most punishing and effective
running games in the league as they used Marshawn Lynch to control
the clock and close out countless games. When Lynch and then his
backup Thomas Rawls went out, however, the team’s plans
changed dramatically. They have now very clearly become a pass-heavy
offense, trusting Wilson to do most of the damage on offense while
their trio of running backs including Christine Michael, Bryce
Brown and Fred Jackson compete for the table scraps. This was
fine in Week 15 when the Seahawks smashed the Browns, but when
they faced a competitive team this past week against the Rams,
there was almost nothing at all in the way of touches or production
for the running backs. Michael, Brown and Jackson combined for
just 15 carries and none of them produced anything of fantasy
value for their owners in the loss to St. Louis.
Now in another tough matchup on the road against Arizona, it
will be tough for fantasy owners to go back to trusting any member
of this running game, especially because we don’t have a
clear outlook on who will even get the bulk of the carries. Yes,
the old “hot hand” concept has been spoken about,
but without knowing who that hot hand will be, it’s extremely
difficult to make a fantasy prediction regarding any player in
this backfield. Because of that, it would be wise for fantasy
owners to steer clear of this backfield, especially considering
that the team ran the ball just 12 times with running backs when
these teams played back in Week 10, and that was with Lynch and
Rawls both on the field. It’s probably Michael who you’ll
want if you are in a desperate situation and have to trust one
of these players, but try to avoid this situation altogether if
you can.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the best fantasy stories of the 2015
season, Carson Palmer continues to roll as the Cardinals look
forward to the playoffs. Palmer has slowed down a bit over the
past few weeks as he’s only accumulated 30 total fantasy
points over his past two games, but he’s still producing
solid enough numbers to remain a quality fantasy starter and his
extremely high ceiling has made him one of the least dangerous
players in all of fantasy this season. Palmer’s receivers,
namely Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown have all
had their ups and downs this season, but the unit appears to be
hitting its stride now that we are in the fantasy playoffs and
heading toward the actual NFL playoffs. Floyd led the team this
past week with six receptions for 111 yards, his third 100-yard
day over his past four contests. Meanwhile both Fitzgerald and
Brown were held to under 30 yards, but both players scored a touchdown
to make up for their lack of yardage. For Brown, it was his sixth
straight game with at least 99 yards and/or a touchdown.
The last time that Brown was held in check actually came back
in Week 10 when he faced the very same Seattle defense that he
will be up against this Sunday. Brown was targeted just three
times and failed to catch a pass in that game. Fitzgerald, however,
had a field day as he caught a season high 10 passes for 130 yards
while Floyd had his biggest fantasy day of the season, catching
seven passes for 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns - all season
highs. The Seattle defense has allowed the second-fewest amount
of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but Palmer
is the lone quarterback who has thrown for more than two touchdowns
against them this season. Richard Sherman can only cover one receiver
each play and while other players in the secondary are certainly
great, the advantage in this matchup may well go to the Cardinals
and their plethora of offensive weapons.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back David Johnson has
certainly been one of the fantasy heroes in this year’s
playoff stretch. Since becoming the starter back in Week 13, Johnson
has accumulated an impressive 21.5 fantasy points per game (standard
scoring). He’s been even better in PPR formats where he’s
caught 14 passes over his past four games, a number that is a
bit surprising given the lack of pass attempts that came Chris
Johnson’s way when he was starting. Johnson accumulated
just 39 rushing yards on nine carries during Arizona’s blowout
victory over Green Bay this past week, but he added 88 yards as
a receiver and scored a rushing touchdown, making him, once again,
one of the better fantasy plays of the week despite his 11 total
touches.
The rookie has been a huge playmaker and is certainly making
a case for being the team’s primary ball carrier going forward,
but in order to truly solidify his spot, he’s going to have
to prove he can do it against one of the league’s best defenses,
the Seahawks. Seattle has been running the NFC West for a few
years now and while the Cardinals have clinched the division,
they have not yet proven that they have fully taken over control
of the division. They have an opportunity to do that by winning
this Week 17 game in convincing fashion, which could also help
them with playoff positioning. Expect Johnson to get a heavy workload
this week as long as the game is competitive, perhaps even doubling
or more his Week 16 total of 11 touches. The Seahawks have been
ridiculously stingy against opposing running games this season,
however, as they’ve given up the fewest points to the position
in the league. Arizona did rush for 119 yards on 30 carries when
these teams played back in Week 10, however, so they’ve
already proven that they can move the ball on the ground if needed,
even against this very strong defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been a lost season for the Chargers
in what might be their final season in San Diego, but don’t
tell Philip Rivers. Rivers continues to give every ounce that
he has to this team despite a complete lack of weapons to throw
to and a practically non-existent running game. This past week,
Rivers connected with wide receiver Dontrelle Inman for eight
passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. It was a season high in receptions
for Inman who seems to be the new top target in the San Diego
passing game while other players recover from injury. Antonio
Gates is still a big weapon, of course, but he has failed to get
into the end zone in nine of his past 10 games and he’s
scored just four times on the season. Still, Gates is fourth in
the league in targets at the tight end position which makes him
a viable fantasy option despite his very volatile fantasy numbers.
The only other receiver in this offense who is even worth looking
at right now is Malcom Floyd who will be playing his final NFL
game this week and could see a few extra shots down the field
just because of that reason. Floyd is still a capable receiver
with big play potential so if you’re looking for a shot
in the dark, he might not be a bad option.
This struggling passing offense has been decent over the past
two weeks, but that might stop very quickly when the team has
to head to Denver to face what is perhaps the league’s best
pass defense. The Broncos have been incredibly dominant against
opposing quarterbacks this season as they’ve given up an
average of just 11.6 fantasy points per game (standard scoring)
to the position. That’s nearly a full point per game better
than the next-closest defense, the Seahawks. This past week, the
Broncos held AJ McCarron and the Bengals to 200 yards and one
touchdown through the air and they had one of their best days
of the season when they faced the Chargers back in Week 13. In
that game, the Broncos went into San Diego and held Rivers to
just 202 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. The Broncos
are still fighting for playoff seeding, so don’t expect
them to take the pedal off of the medal in this game. Expect a
full pass rush and a physical secondary as usual, which could
make for a tough day for Rivers and the Chargers.
Running Game Thoughts: While rookie Melvin Gordon was certainly
a massive disappointment from a fantasy standpoint this season,
there’s no doubting that his skillset was a better fit to
run the ball between the tackles than what the Chargers have remaining
on their roster in Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown. Brown rushed
the ball 14 times for just 17 yards this past week and while he
did get into the end zone to save what was otherwise an extraordinarily
bad fantasy day, it’s very tough to believe that he’s
going to be trusted to tote the rock on a regular basis when he’s
barely getting one yard per carry against the Raiders. Woodhead
was quite a bit more productive with his touches against Oakland
as he ran the ball 11 times for 55 yards while adding 53 yards
on eight receptions in the passing game.
While Woodhead has continues to produce great numbers in PPR
formats, his lack of consistent rushing attempts has made him
tough to trust in standard leagues and that will likely be the
case again here in Week 17 as he goes up against one of the league’s
toughest defenses, the Broncos. Denver held Woodhead to just three
catches for 24 yards when these teams met back in Week 13 and
he ran the ball just three times for 10 yards. Gordon was not
much more effective in that game as he was only able to muster
55 yards on 12 carries. With Brown and Woodhead essentially splitting
what are already a limited number of carries, it’s tough
to trust Brown to do much in this game. Woodhead is still a viable
PPR option against the Broncos, but his upside might again be
limited in this difficult matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: We’ve seen some great things from
Brock Osweiler during his run as the Broncos’ starter and
we’ve also seen some not-so-great things, but one thing
appears to be sure: the Broncos are intent on keeping him in the
lineup even now that Peyton Manning is supposedly ready to play.
Manning will reportedly serve as the backup quarterback this weekend
as Osweiler gets his seventh straight start. During that time,
Osweiler has thrown nine touchdowns while only throwing four interceptions
and while he’s only hit 300 yards once, he has thrown for
at least 250 yards in all but one of his starts. Those type of
numbers don’t exactly make a player a fantasy superstar,
but he’s certainly been a viable streaming option. More
importantly, though, is that he’s been able to reinvigorate
the fantasy production of Denver’s top two receivers, Demaryius
Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The receivers have still been a bit
up and down, but Thomas has now made at least five receptions
in four straight contests while scoring three touchdowns over
that stretch while Sanders has now made 14 receptions for 248
yards and a pair of touchdowns over just his past two games.
Both Sanders and Thomas are solid fantasy options this week as
the Broncos host the Chargers in what is a meaningless game for
San Diego but could have playoff positioning implications for
Denver. It might not be easy, though, as the Chargers have actually
stepped things up significantly in recent weeks when it comes
to opposing passing games. They started the season off as one
of the league’s worst pass defenses, but they’ve given
up a total of just three touchdowns and an average of 194 passing
yards per game over their past four contests. One of those games
actually was against the Broncos and Osweiler back in Week 13
when they held him to just 166 yards and a touchdown. In that
game, Sanders was held to just three catches for 19 yards. Still,
Osweiler and his receivers appear to be clicking a bit better
in recent weeks so now isn’t the time to sit Sanders or
Thomas who have been very hot in recent weeks. The other players
in this passing game, including tight ends Owen Daniels and Vernon
Davis, might be better off sitting for your fantasy squad.
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson was one of a number of first
and second round fantasy draft picks who absolutely killed their
owners this season, but unlike a few others who have produced
almost nothing, Anderson has shown life from time to time. This
past week, he ran the ball nine times for 73 yards including a
touchdown while his counterpart, Ronnie Hillman, was able to accumulate
just 35 yards on the same number of carries. Hillman remains the
de facto “starter” in this backfield, but there really
is a split here and neither player is very easy to trust given
the lack of overall production from the Denver running game this
season. The last time that a Denver running back rushed for over
100 yards in a game was back in Week 12 when Anderson did it against
the Patriots. He’s since rushed for a total of just 129
yards in three games, however.
With the Chargers pass defense playing better in recent weeks,
they’ve also been much better against the run in recent
contests. They were on pace to be one of the worst fantasy run
defenses of all time earlier this season and they’re still
giving up over 19 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to
the position on the year, but San Diego has actually held most
of their recent opponents in check. They’ve given up just
119 rushing yards over their past two games and a total of just
two touchdowns on the ground over their past five contests. One
of those games came against the Broncos back in Week 13. While
the Denver backfield did accumulate 125 rushing yards on the day,
it was on 34 carries, meaning less than a 3.7 yards per carry
average on the day. The Chargers defense has a lot of work to
do, but the Anderson and Hillman duo just isn’t very good
and they break into one another’s touches enough that neither
player has a particularly high ceiling in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The young Raiders offense centered around
quarterback Derek Carr has certainly been a bright spot this fantasy
season. Carr continues to impress as he has now thrown for 31
touchdowns on the year with only 12 interceptions. Wide receivers
Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have been the biggest beneficiaries
of an improved Carr who has become a viable weekly fantasy QB.
Both receivers have been solid WR2’s throughout the majority
of the season and while they’ve each had their share of
poor games, they’ve been one of the better duos in the league
and one that has to give Raiders fans some hope for the future.
Things have taken a bit of a step back over the past couple of
weeks, however, especially this past week when Cooper was held
to just 10 yards on two catches. Crabtree did get into the end
zone for his team-leading eighth touchdown but he, too, struggled
to do much in the yardage department, catching six passes for
just 39 yards.
Carr continues to show signs that he is a franchise quarterback,
but his 5.5 yards per attempt over his past four games is not
exactly inspiring. Worse yet is that the four game slump began
back in Week 13 when he threw a season high three interceptions
against the very same Kansas City defense that he’ll see
this Sunday. The Chiefs caused plenty of problems for the Raiders
offense as they went on the road and won the game by two touchdowns.
Now back in the confines of Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs are
an even more daunting opponent. They’ve held their past
two home opponents to zero touchdown passes and they’ll
look to make it three straight against Carr. While Carr is a bit
risky this week due to the tough opponent, he will likely be given
plenty of opportunities to throw the ball all over the field,
which should still give him a high enough floor for streaming
consideration here in Week 17.
Running Game Thoughts: Only four players have rushed for 1,000
yards this season – Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin
and...Latavius Murray? That’s right, Murray has been quietly
productive this season at least from a yardage standpoint. Sure,
a handful of other players will almost certainly join the 1000-yard
club this weekend, but it’s worth noting that Murray, who
is one of the youngest of the bunch, still has so much more to
give the Raiders – and fantasy owners – for the future.
A 1000-yard rusher usually means a bunch of big games, but Murray
hasn’t really been that. He’s been more of the “slow
and steady” type of producer, having accumulated just two
100-yard games on the season. He’s stayed relatively healthy,
though, which has given him a big leg up on much of the competition.
Unfortunately, his high end production has been limited which
has made him tough to use in daily formats and often times frustrating
or disappointing in season-long leagues.
Murray had one of his better games of the season his past week
when he rushed for 79 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while
adding an additional 38 yards as a receiver. Things won’t
likely be so easy this week, though, as Murray will be up against
a very good Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest
fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including
just seven rushing touchdowns allowed. Murray himself was actually
fairly productive when these teams met back in Week 13, though,
as he rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Still,
this is a road game in Kansas City, one of the most hostile environments
in all of football, and the Chiefs have been excellent in most
games, making Murray more of an RB2 than an RB1. What makes him
startable for season-long leagues, though, is that he continues
to get the vast majority of the team’s running back touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s rarely exciting, but Alex Smith
continues to be an effective fantasy quarterback with a fairly
high floor in the safe Kansas City offense. Smith has scored at
least 11 fantasy points (standard scoring) in all but one game
this season but he’s only reached 20 points four times.
This lack of high ceiling makes him very difficult to use as a
QB1 despite the fact that he regularly finishes near the bottom
end of the top 12 at his position on a week-to-week basis. Wide
receiver Jeremy Maclin has been a very solid fantasy producer
most weeks, but especially lately. Maclin has caught at least
five passes in each of his past five games while scoring five
total touchdowns over that span. Tight end Travis Kelce continues
to be a viable option at his position despite falling short of
many experts’ preseason expectations and he did score his
fifth touchdown of the season this past week.
The Raiders defense has been significantly better in the second
half of the season than they were in the first half, but they’re
still not a great unit overall. The Raiders have given up just
two multi-touchdown passing games to opposing quarterbacks over
their past seven games. One of them did come against Smith and
the Chiefs back in Week 13, however, when the Kansas City QB tossed
a pair of touchdowns – both to Maclin – despite throwing
for just 162 yards. Smith also ran for a touchdown during that
game, one of just two rushing scores he’s had this year.
With the Chiefs now playing at home as opposed to on the road
as they were in Week 13, look for Smith and his weapons to perform
even better than they did before.
Running Game Thoughts: The fear of the dreaded goal line vulture
continues in Kansas City as Spencer Ware has stolen quite a few
potential touchdowns from Charcandrick West since the duo took
over for the injured Jamaal Charles, but things might have gotten
quite a bit clearer this past week. West was on the field for
45 offensive snaps in the Chiefs’ victory over the Browns
while Ware got just six snaps. Ware did touch the ball on five
of those six plays so he’s certainly being used when he
does get on the field, but the fact that West got such a big workload
is definitely inspiring for fantasy owners’ confidence.
West has now touched the ball at least 10 times in every game
since becoming the Chiefs’ starter which has allowed him
to become a borderline RB1 in most matchups.
The Raiders’ defense has been average against the run this
season, but they did hold the Chiefs running game in check when
these teams played a few games back. In that game, the duo of
West and Ware combined for just 61 yards on a combined 16 carries.
While West has shown some big play ability, he isn’t the
superstar that Charles was, so he typically does need more touches
in order to reach his full potential. Expect both players to get
substantially more work in this game as the Chiefs attempt to
control the clock and keep their players healthy for the playoffs.
20 touches is not out of the question for West this week and while
Ware is always a threat to snipe a touchdown from him, West should
be a solid fantasy contributor this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A pathetic fantasy performance from the
Rams’ passing game in what was a tough matchup against the
Seahawks this past week, but 103 yards and one touchdown was even
worse than most expected. Case Keenum had thrown for 234 yards
and a pair of touchdowns the previous week – both season
highs – but he has now failed to throw for even 150 yards
in three of his four starts. Of course, that has meant almost
no production from any other player in this passing game. Kenny
Britt has been the team’s top receiver under Keenum and
he has now caught touchdowns in back to back weeks despite having
not caught more than three receptions in any of his past four
games. Britt does have the potential for a touchdown, but his
high end potential isn’t great and it wouldn’t be
surprising if he went catchless in any game, making him a poor
fantasy option in any format.
San Francisco was expected to be and has turned out to be one
of the worst teams in the league this season, but their pass defense
has been the lone bright spot in what has been an otherwise dreadful
year. While they’re only a middle-of-the-pack pass defense,
that’s significantly better than they are against the run.
Of course, some of the reason that they have been able to avoid
being passed on might be because they are being run on so much,
but it’s still something to consider for fantasy purposes.
The Rams running game is certainly more productive than their
passing game, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see
them keep the ball on the ground as much as they can.
Running Game Thoughts: One of only four 1,000-yard rushers this
season, Rams running back Todd Gurley has certainly been a fantasy
superstar in his first season and has made his claim to be the
top running back off the board in 2016. The rookie runner is unlikely
to play this weekend, however, as he is dealing with a foot injury,
which means that we’ll likely be seeing Tre Mason take over
the starting duties here in Week 17. Mason was productive as a
rookie himself in 2014, but lost his job when the team drafted
Gurley. Although Mason does have some plug-and-play potential
due to the likelihood that he will get the majority of the carries,
his upside might be capped as Benny Cunningham and even Tavon
Austin will still get some touches.
Mason and the Rams backfield will have an excellent matchup here
in Week 17 as they will be up against a horrendous 49ers run defense.
San Francisco has given up a whopping 20 total touchdowns to opposing
running backs this season, including at least one touchdown in
all but two games. Gurley and the Rams rushed for an impressive
179 yards and a touchdown when these teams played back in Week
8, so there is certainly some upside here for Mason and even Cunningham
for those in a desperate situation. The Rams shocked everyone
when they went on the road and beat the Seahawks this week which
could lead to a bit of a letdown here in a meaningless game against
the 49ers, but there’s reason to believe that there could
be some unexpected, solid production from the St. Louis backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 49ers certainly didn’t come into
2015 with the hope that Blaine Gabbert would be their quarterback
for the future, but they may very well end the year with that
being a strong possibility. Gabbert has certainly outplayed Colin
Kaepernick with his playing time and he has now thrown for nine
touchdowns with six interceptions on the year. There was some
concern that he was regressing again in recent weeks when he failed
to do much through the air against the Browns, Bears and Bengals,
but he silenced those critics – at least for one week –
with a nice performance against the Lions. Gabbert tossed a pair
of touchdowns with 225 passing yards and didn’t throw an
interception. The pass catchers in San Francisco have been extremely
volatile all season, however. No 49ers receiver has gone over
100 yards since Anquan Boldin did it all the way back in Week
6.
After a hugely impressive start to the season where the held
opposing quarterbacks to just five passing touchdowns in their
first eight games, the Rams secondary has really fallen apart
in the second half of the season. In their past seven games, they’ve
given up 15 passing touchdowns, including multiple touchdowns
in all but one game during that stretch. This past week, Russell
Wilson threw for nearly 300 yards and a pair of scores against
this defense. When the Rams played against the 49ers earlier this
season (Week 8), it was the final appearance for Kaepernick who
was benched for Gabbert the following week. While Gabbert is certainly
an improvement at quarterback, it’s hard to know who’s
going to be on the receiving end of his passes. The top option
might actually be tight end Vance McDonald who has shown signs
of breaking out this year, including this past week when he caught
five passes for 61 yards. Still, he’s been way too up and
down to be trusted for anyone other than the most desperate fantasy
owners.
Running Game Thoughts: With three running backs now on IR, the
49ers had to turn to the waiver wire to find someone to run the
ball. They opted for DuJuan Harris who signed with the team less
than a week before he got the starting job against the Lions in
Week 16. Harris was productive, running for 73 yards on 11 attempts,
and likely assured that he will again get the majority of the
touches again here in Week 17. Despite being an awful offense,
the 49ers have committed to their running game seemingly no matter
who they have toting the rock, which has at least given them a
reasonably high floor. Unfortunately, the ceiling hasn’t
been high as the team just hasn’t put up enough points to
make them a great fantasy option.
In Week 17, Harris and the 49ers will have a tough matchup against
a Rams defense that just got done holding the Seahawks to a combined
26 yards on 15 carries. While they’ve been run all over
by a few opponents, the Rams have at least been good at holding
running backs out of the end zone in recent weeks. Over their
past six games, St. Louis has only given up one total rushing
touchdown. Still, they’ve given up quite a few yards to
the position, which should give Harris owners some hope in what
should be at least a competitive game. It’s hard to be very
excited about anyone in the San Francisco offense, but Harris
might be the one player who could be in your lineup in standard
leagues.