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Inside the Matchup
Week 17
1/1/16

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



NYJ @ BUF | NE @ MIA | WAS @ DAL | PHI @ NYG

TB @ CAR | NO @ ATL | JAX @ HOU | TEN @ IND

BAL @ CIN | DET @ CHI | PIT @ CLE | MIN @ GB

SEA @ ARI | SD @ DEN | OAK @ KC | STL @ SF

Jets @ Bills - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Meaningful Week 17 games that are expected to be competitive are few and far between. This is one of them. Last week’s home win over the Patriots combined with the Steelers’ shocking loss at Baltimore put the Jets in the driver’s seat for a wild card spot. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been incredible as of late with the lone exception being a dud against the Cowboys. Aside from that game, Fitzy has thrown for multiple scores in his last four games and has only failed to throw multiple scores twice all season (technically its three, but rushing touchdowns count in my book – I also don’t count the game against the Raiders where he hurt his thumb). Last week, it was the Brandon Marshall show. He caught 8-of-10 targets for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns.This week should be more of the same.The Bills will not be able to cover him. Eric Decker was poised to have his streak of 80 yards or a score broken last week until he caught the game winner on a beautifully lofted pass that dropped in perfectly. The streak lives.

The Bills have allowed 28 passing touchdowns on the season and have been getting torched by competent quarterbacks. This team has not tried in weeks, but may get up for Rex Ryan one last time just to stick it to the Jets. It would be very Jets-like for them to pull off a hard fought win against New England and then drop a “win and in” in Buffalo. However, I think talent trumps narrative in this one.

Running Game Thoughts: Does anyone remember when Chris Ivory was an RB1? It seems so long ago. At this point in the season, and really what he’s been for weeks now, is a guy who hopes to see half the snaps and fall into the end zone from the goal line. The problem is that the Jets have transitioned to a team that passes in the red zone, which seems natural given their two stud receivers. That takes away the touchdown opportunities. Without scores, Ivory has limited value. He is a zero in the passing game, having just 30 receptions on the season, and he no longer sees enough volume to be effective on the ground. Bilal Powell has been superior in all facets of the game since he returned from injury and is unquestionably the preferred fantasy option in this backfield. Powell missed practice Thursday, which is never a good sign, but indications are that he will play. Ivory dominated the carries when these teams last played, racking up 99 yards on 18 carries, but so much has changed since Week 10. The Bills have a middling run defense, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 10 rushing scores on the season. There is no reason to invest in this running game.

Editor's Note: Bilal Powell (ankle) missed practice all week and may miss this game. If he does, Ivory becomes an interesting DFS play in Week 17.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Chris Ivory: 45 rush yds
Bilal Powell: 25 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 80 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cowboys really suck the life out of opposing quarterbacks. Tyrod Taylor did nothing through the air, throwing just 18 times for 179 yards with an interception. He tried to salvage his day with his rushing totals, but without a touchdown, he pretty much bottomed out. The Cowboys completely anemic offense allowed the Bills to just run-run-run. The only life in this passing game was Sammy Watkins, who caught 5 passes for 84 yards. I’d be impressed if he was able to match that total against the Jets this weekend.

When these teams met in Week 10, Watkins had just 3 catches for 14 yards. Granted that was two weeks before he turned the corner on this season, but still very discouraging with Darrelle Revis once again expected to cover him. The Jets just held Tom Brady to 231 yards and just 1 touchdown. The Jets are fifth in the league in interceptions with 18 and lead the league in opponents’ completion percentage against at a miniscule 56.7 percent. This week’s daily lineups should feature zero Bills.

Running Game Thoughts: In Week 10, LeSean McCoy had his way with the Jets’ top ranked run defense for 112 yards on 19 carries. In Week 17, LeSean McCoy will be watching from the sidelines as Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee split carries. Williams out-carried Gillislee 19-7 last week and both backs found the end zone (Gillislee really found it twice, but his long touchdown was ruled downed at the 1 and then Williams stole it). Williams is still averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season and has always played well in Shady’s absence. Gillislee has come out of nowhere and averaged 10.4 yards per carry, albeit across a very limited 23 carries on the season.

The Bills’ running game is very effective. The problem is the Jets rushing defense is near the top of the league in just about every category imaginable. They are tops in touchdowns against, second in yards against, fourth in yards per carry against, and second in attempts against. The Bills are going to have to run effectively to win this game. I just can’t see the Jets allowing themselves to miss the playoffs because they were swept by the Bills. That means stopping the run. This week’s daily lineups should feature zero Bills.

Projections:
Tyrod Taylor: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Karlos Williams: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Mike Gillislee: 30 rush yds
Sammy Watkins: 60 rec yds

Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 16 ^ Top

Patriots @ Dolphins - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Patriots close out the season in South Beach where a win locks up home field throughout the playoffs. With a bye already clinched, the Patriots will certainly be trying, but don’t expect any injured players to be making early returns. That rules out Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. I expect both to play in the divisional round, though. As for this week, it will likely be Gronk and then everyone else. Tom Brady distributed the ball fairly evenly against the Jets last week with Gronk catching 4 balls, Keshawn Martin catching 7, and both backs catching 5 each. Considered possibly the greatest coach of all time, Bill Belichick failed on multiple fronts last week. The offense completely gave up at the end of the first half. When you have Tom Brady, over a minute remaining, and two timeouts, you don’t give up, yet the Patriots just sat on the ball and went to the half down a touchdown. The overall game plan was abysmal.

The Patriots beat the Jets in Week 7 because they avoided the league’s top rushing defense by throwing 54 times. Last week, Brady attempted 31 passes, his second lowest total on the season. The Patriots ran the ball, not counting reverses, 18 times, and it went about as well as expected (49 yards). Then, for the grand finale, Belichick decided that he didn’t want the ball first in overtime. He must’ve forgotten his quarterback is Tom Brady. Brady has been just another guy at the quarterback position the past three weeks. He lit up the Dolphins for 356 yards and 4 touchdowns when these teams last played, but we haven’t seen that Brady in weeks. The matchup is enticing, but there are likely better, less expensive options this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Two weeks ago, someone called Joey Iosefa led the Patriots in carries. This week, he is back on the practice squad after being released and resigned. Two weeks ago, Steven Jackson was unemployed. Last week, he handled seven carries. Brandon Bolden is likely still the lead back here, if you can call him that, but the fact remains that James White is the only Patriots running back worth considering and he doesn’t even run the ball. He’s been the closest thing to Dion Lewis and might be worth a look in daily this week in a favorable matchup. The Dolphins allow the third most rushing yards per game and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns so the Patriots should have success on the ground. The problem is, it won’t be just one guy.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs
Brandon Bolden: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
James White: 5 rush yds, 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Keshawn Martin: 50 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: When Gisele called out Wes Welker in 2012 for essentially dropping a Super Bowl title, she took a lot of heat. What Brent Grimes’ wife just did to Ryan Tannehill is borderline criminal. Despite the fact that I agree with her, you just don’t say things like that about your husband’s teammate, let alone his quarterback. Tannehill failed to throw a touchdown for the second consecutive game last week and did so against a Colts defense ranked in the bottom five in defending the pass. Jarvis Landry did his usual Jarvis Landry things with 111 yards on 7 catches. He is always a reliable weekly option. DeVante Parker saw 10 targets, but managed to reel in only 4 of them, albeit for 93 yards. Parker has been inconsistent since taking over the No.2 role, but I think we’ve seen enough to know that he has the potential to be a fantasy relevant receiver. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come just yet so stay away from him this week. The Patriots allow just 233.9 passing yards per game and have allowed only 22 passing touchdowns on the season. Tannehill was awful the last time he faced the Patriots. He is absolutely not an option this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins decided to give the ball to Lamar Miller last week. However, he wasn’t very effective, totaling just 31 yards on 15 carries. Jay Ajayi wasn’t much better with 9 carries for 23 yards. If Miller didn’t fall into the end zone (and only after Ajayi was stuffed twice) it would’ve been another useless performance. When these teams last played, Ajayi wasn’t active yet. Even so, Miller saw just 9 carries for 15 yards. The Patriots are top 10 against the run, allowing 98.9 rushing yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. There are undoubtedly better options for your daily lineup than either Dolphins back.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jay Ajayi: 45 rush yds
Jarvis Landry: 80 rec yds
DeVante Parker: 60 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 13 ^ Top

Redskins @ Cowboys - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: In a scenario pretty much everyone expected when predicting the season back in August, the Washington Redskins locked up the NFC East last Saturday night in a win over the Eagles. Oh. No? That wasn’t what everything thought would happen? In an injury riddled year, the likes of which I hope we never see again, the Redskins benefited from the misfortune of the other teams in the division en route to a divisional crown. Since the NFC East is so terrible, the Redskins are locked into the No.4 seed, which makes Week 17 a glorified exhibition. Do not expect to see Kirk Cousins, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed for more than a series or two as the Redskins rest their starters ahead of their first playoff game in three years. If you were considering any Redskins at all, remember how awful this team looked the last time they played the Cowboys, earning the honor of being the only team to lose to the Cowboys with Matt Cassel at quarterback. The Cowboys have been a top pass defense all season so this would not have been a good spot even if the game meant something. It does not. Avoid all Redskins.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m not sure if Alfred Morris and Matt Jones are good enough to warrant resting. Therein lies the problem. If they are rested, you can’t use them, and if they aren’t rested, you still can’t use them. The Redskins as a team average 3.6 yards per carry and Morris and Jones have been in a timeshare for the majority of the season. It’s been reported that Jones suffered a setback with his hip and likely won’t play. Expect Chris Thompson and Pierre Thomas to get some extra opportunities. The Cowboys have allowed the 4th most rushing touchdowns this season with 16, but you don’t want to take a shot on one of these backs falling into the end zone. Avoid all Redskins.

Projections:
Colt McCoy: 170 pass yds
Alfred Morris: 30 rush yds
Pierre Thomas: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jamison Crowder: 60 rec yds
Ryan Grant: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: This will be the last time I get to write about my Cowboys this season and it is truly a merciful ending to the worst Cowboys season since the days of Quincy Carter and Chad Hutchinson. At this time last year, Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray were preparing to host the Lions in the first round of the playoffs. Now, Murray is wasting away in Philly while Romo and Bryant are on Injured Reserve. As excited as I was to see Kellen Moore get his chance, it’s abundantly clear there’s simply nothing there. He will start again this week as he gets one last chance to earn the 2016 backup role.

The spot couldn’t be much better against a Redskins defense that’s allowed 300 yards or multiple passing touchdowns in every non-Cowboys game since their Week 10 bye and one that will be resting starters. Unfortunately, Moore hasn’t exactly been given much to work with. Brice Butler will operate as his primary target and could be a sneaky home run play in the daily game. Terrance Williams will continue to be given the world and do nothing with it because he’s simply not that good. The door closed on this passing offense the instant Romo went down for the second time. Do not try and reopen it for one more week.

Running Game Thoughts: If there is one player in this game to consider using at all, it’s Darren McFadden. He rushed for 99 yards on 19 carries last week and has been effective regardless of who has been playing quarterback. He hasn’t scored much, but if it means anything, the last time he did was against the Redskins Week 13. That was also the only game where he lost a fumble and he actually lost two that week. Averaging over 100 yards on the ground the past three weeks, McFadden’s renaissance tour has one more appearance to make and it doesn’t appear as if the Cowboys intend to feature a younger back. The Redskins allow 4.8 yards per carry and have allowed 10 rushing scores on the season. With their starters likely sitting out on defense too, DMC is an enticing option in a week with so few of them.

Projections:
Kellen Moore: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Darren McFadden: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Brice Butler: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 40 rec yds
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Redskins 22, Cowboys 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Giants - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s always difficult to figure out what will happen in meaningless Week 17 games. However, every so often, something happens that may actually matter. On December 7, Chip Kelly stated that he “made a commitment” to the Eagles and intends to “see it through.” Tuesday night, Eagles owner, Jeffrey Lurie, made clear that he does not feel the same way when he fired the head coach with just one game remaining in the season. Kelly’s departure could mean radical changes for the offense next year as the fast pace was his brainchild. It is unlikely that the Eagles will change anything this week, though. More likely to make a difference is the fact that Kelly did not exactly endear himself well to his players. It is entirely possible that the Eagles come out and play inspired football to stick it to their former coach and kind of let him know that the problem wasn’t them.

The Eagles absolutely faceplanted last week in a game where a win would have given them control of the NFC East. Since the game was so lopsided, Sam Bradford was throwing early and often. He attempted 56 passes, completing 37 of them for a season high 380 yards. Somehow he managed to throw just one touchdown, which went to Jordan Matthews. Matthews has looked much better in the second half of this season and displayed the talent we all knew he possessed. His arrow is pointing upwards for 2016 and he has a great opportunity to end this season on a high note against the Giants laughably bad secondary. Both JMatt and Zach Ertz look like solid value plays this week against a team that still ranks 32nd in passing yards allowed at 297.9 while also having allowed 29 passing touchdowns.

Running Game Thoughts: No Eagles back saw more than 5 carries last week with DeMarco Murray leading the team in rushing with 27 yards. Both Murray and Ryan Mathews found the end zone, but neither can be relied on given their inconsistent usage. Chip Kelly’s departure probably improves Murray’s chances of returning to Philly next year as perhaps the next coach won’t try and take a downhill runner and make him run sweeps all the time. The Giants were torched last week by Adrian Peterson and Jerick McKinnon for a total of 193 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 rushes. The Giants have allowed the 7th most rushing touchdowns on the season and allow 121.5 rushing yards per game so the opportunity is there. I actually have confidence in the Eagles running game to perform well this week. The problem is it is not worth guessing who the primary beneficiary will be.

Projections:
Sam Bradford: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Ryan Mathews: 50 rush yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: If you ever want to know exactly what it looks like when a team completely stops trying, I would direct you to Giants-Vikings Week 16. There are few things I enjoy more in sports than Eli Manning falling flat on his face. I will give credit where it is due – Manning has played well this season. A 4000-yard, 30-plus touchdown campaign is nothing to scoff at. After back-to-back games with 4 touchdown passes and just 1 turnover, Manning looked like he simply did not care last week, completing just 51.7 percent of his passes for 234 yards with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. He was operating without Odell Beckham, but that does not excuse this level of futility.

He’ll get Beckham back this week, who went 7-61-1 in his first meeting with the Eagles Week 6. The Eagles have allowed the second most passing touchdowns on the season with 34 so the chances should be there. This one will come down to how much of an effort the Giants actually give in what could be (and should be) Tom Coughlin’s last game as head coach.

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game has been the laughingstock of the league for the entire season, but something changed the last two weeks. The Giants actually committed to giving the ball to Rashad Jennings as their clear lead back and he’s responded with a combined 181 yards on 30 carries over those two weeks. Two weeks ago, non-Jennings backs combined for 10 carries. Last week, they saw just 5. The Eagles allow 129.7 rushing yards per game so if the Giants commit to Jennings again, he could be a sneaky value play this week. Given the state of the Giants as a whole, it is still a risk, but in a season where few running backs are reliable, there are certainly worse options than Jennings.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 70 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 120 rec yds, 2 TDs
Will Tye: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 20 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Panthers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: After a shaky start, Jameis Winston has cemented himself as a future fantasy star and currently ranks 14th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. He’s thrown for more than 650 yards with four touchdowns in his last two games, and the last time he faced Carolina Winston had 287 yards and a pair of scores, but with four interceptions. He will be without Vincent Jackson this week, but Mike Evans will play, albeit with a tough match-up. A decent start at tight end could be Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who had 60 yards and a score last week and didn’t play the first time Tampa met up with Carolina.

The Panthers have had some struggles recently against opposing quarterbacks, and have not had any success covering Julio Jones (though they’re not alone in that department), but for the year just four teams have given up fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks this season than Carolina, who have also allowed the 10th-fewest points to wideouts but are only slightly above average in points surrendered to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin only managed 49 yards last week against the Bears, but he did find the end zone for the sixth time this season. He’s third among running backs in fantasy points, and the last time Martin faced off against the Panthers he had 106 yards and one score, and should still be considered a RB1 this week despite the match-up.

Carolina has given up the 10th-fewest fantasy points in the league to running backs this season, and no back has gained more than 107 yards against them. They have been prone to allowing rushing scores lately though, with a back rushing for a touchdown in three of the last four games against them.

Projections:
Jameis Winston: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Doug Martin: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Charles Sims: 20 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Mike Evans: 85 rec yds
Adam Humphries: 25 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Panthers lost last week, but that won’t stop Cam Newton from getting the league’s MVP trophy at the end of the year. He leads all NFL players in fantasy points as well, and anyone who wants to call him the fantasy MVP shouldn’t get much of an argument, especially considering his lack of receivers. He may be minus one of those wideouts, Ted Ginn (knee) this week, but Newton should still be delivering plenty of throws to Greg Olsen, who is fourth among tight ends in fantasy points and should be starting against the Bucs.

Tampa is smack dab in the middle of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks for the year, and though they’ve done fairly well covering tight ends, they have also permitted the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. On four different occasions this year, the Bucs have allowed a receiver to catch multiple touchdowns in a single game.

Running Game Thoughts: It isn’t known if Jonathan Stewart (foot) will suit up this week, but even if he does, a heavy workload seems unlikely as the Panthers will want him at full strength heading into the playoffs. Cameron Artis-Payne will probably be the lead back – unless you count Newton – and the rookie from Auburn probably shouldn’t be counted on as anything more than a flex play against Tampa.

The Buccaneers have been decent if unspectacular against opposing running backs this season, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points in the league to players at that position. And though they have not allowed 90 yards to a back since Week 3, the team has given up a rushing score to a runner in each of their three previous games.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Cameron Artis-Payne: 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Philly Brown: 55 rec yds
Ted Ginn Jr.: 35 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Panthers 21, Buccaneers 17 ^ Top

Saints at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Even with a foot injury, Drew Brees managed an outstanding game last week against the Jaguars, throwing for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now thrown for 300 or more yards in three straight contests, and has tossed three scores in three of his last four games. Brees, who threw for 312 yards and touchdown in his last meeting with Atlanta, does most of his damage throwing to Brandin Cooks, who is ninth among wideouts in fantasy scoring. The duo has a tough match-up, but shouldn’t be sitting on fantasy benches against the Falcons, and neither should Ben Watson (knee), who amassed 127 yards and a score when New Orleans and Atlanta previously met.

The Falcons have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and only the Broncos have surrendered fewer points to wide receivers, with just two wideouts even breaking the 65-yard mark against Atlanta since Week 6. The team has had difficulty with tight ends however, having permitted the sixth-most fantasy points in the league to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Tim Hightower has been getting a ton of work since Mark Ingram went down, and the fantasy owners who scooped him up have been the beneficiaries. He ran for 122 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week, while also pulling in 47 receiving yards. Hightower is a legit RB1 this week due to a very favorable match-up with the Falcons.

Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the league to running backs, and it isn’t because they give up a ton of yards. The Falcons are actually in the middle of the NFL in terms of yards surrendered to backs, but only the 49ers have given up more rushing scores to runners, and just three teams have ceded more receiving yards to backs.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Tim Hightower: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Brandin Cooks: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Willie Snead: 60 rec yds
Ben Watson: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Falcons beat the Panthers last week with Matt Ryan doing what he does best – throwing to Julio Jones. Ryan had 306 passing yards, 178 of which went to Jones, who also caught the QB’s lone touchdown throw. Ryan has been a huge disappointment this year, and isn’t even in the top-15 in fantasy points at his position, but he and Jones are must-starts against an awful New Orleans pass defense.

There isn’t much to be said about the horridness of the Saints’ pass defense that hasn’t already been said. They have surrendered the most fantasy points and touchdown throws to quarterbacks, the fourth-most fantasy points and most touchdown catches to wide receivers, and the most fantasy points and receiving yards to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman ran for 73 yards and a touchdown last week in his team’s win over Carolina, and he still holds a lead over Adrian Peterson in the race for top fantasy running back. Freeman’s chances to win the title are good considering his opponent this week, a Saints team that he scorched for 156 total yards and two scores the last time the teams met up.

New Orleans has a run defense that is nearly as bad as their pass defense, with the team having allowed the most fantasy points and receiving yards in the league to opposing running backs, and the third-most rushing yards to players at the position.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 310 pass yds, 3 TDs
Devonta Freeman: 110 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Julio Jones: 135 rec yds, 2 TDs
Roddy White: 55 rec yds
Jacob Tamme: 45 rec yds

Prediction: Falcons 31, Saints 27 ^ Top

Jaguars at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles has been a revelation for fantasy owners this season, ranking third in fantasy points at his position. He had another hugely productive day last week against the Saints, with 368 yards and four touchdowns. Each of Bortles’ top wideouts, Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, had over 100 yards with a touchdown in the contest, and each is in the top-12 in fantasy scoring among wide receivers. The pair also found the end zone the last time they played the Texans, and despite Houston’s solid work against the pass this year, Bortles, Hurns, Robinson, and Julius Thomas should each be in starting lineups for fantasy owners.

The Texans have permitted the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to quarterbacks, the 11th-fewest points to tight ends, and the seventh-fewest points to wide receivers. They have not allowed a quarterback to throw for 235 yards since Week 7, and only one wideout has breached the 80-yard mark against them since Week 8.

Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon (knee) sat out last week, and could do the same this week, leaving the running game in the hands of Denard Robinson and Jonas Gray. Neither is a particularly appealing fantasy option, though Robinson obviously has the higher upside of the two. Even if Yeldon does return, avoid using any Jacksonville back this week against the Texans as OC Greg Olson hinted the plan is to “get a good look” at Gray.

Houston has been just above average in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season, having surrendered the 14th-fewest points in the league. They are a middle of the pack team in nearly every statistical category, though it should be noted they have permitted just one rushing score to a back since Week 8.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 280 pass yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
Denard Robinson: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Jonas Gray: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Allen Robinson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Houston dominated a lifeless Tennessee outfit last week, with Brandon Weeden leading the way, throwing for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’ll head back to the bench this week though, as Brian Hoyer has been cleared to return from his concussion. Hoyer is lucky enough to be able to throw to DeAndre Hopkins, who had 117 yards and a touchdown last week, and collected 148 yards and two scores the last time he suited up against Jacksonville.

Only three teams have given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Jaguars, and though they are in the middle of the NFL in points allowed to wideouts, they’ve also surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Jags were shredded for 412 yards and three scores by Drew Brees last week, and have allowed 3 or more touchdown throws in five games this year.

Running Game Thoughts: Like their opponents this week, the Texans offer little for fantasy owners in terms of a running game. Alfred Blue is the lead back and has had some moments this year, but Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes also get carries. None of the aforementioned runners should be in fantasy lineups this week, despite a good match-up with the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has permitted the ninth-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing running backs, but even though they’ve allowed four rushing scores to backs over their last four games, it isn’t all due to their run defense. The Jags have given up 840 receiving yards to opposing backs, the third-most in the league, as well as four receiving scores.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Alfred Blue: 55 rush yds, 20 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 120 rec yds
Nate Washington: 55 rec yds
Ryan Griffin: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Texans 17 ^ Top

Titans at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns the last time they faced the Colts, but that was with Marcus Mariota under center. He remains injured, which means Zach Mettenberger will once again be under center and once again be ignored by fantasy owners. The only pass-catcher the Titans have that should interest fantasy owners is Delanie Walker, who is fifth in fantasy points among tight ends and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week. He had 68 yards the last time he faced Indy and should be starting this week. WR Kendall Wright missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and should miss this game with a knee injury.

The Colts have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks and the 13th-most points to tight ends, but where they’ve really struggled is containing opposing wide receivers. Indy has given up the second-most receiving yards and fifth-most fantasy points to players at that position, and in their last six games, seven different wideouts have gained at least 90 yards against them.

Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t a player in the Titans backfield that should be of any interest to fantasy owners, unless Antonio Andrews, David Cobb or Bishop Sankey strikes your fancy. But they shouldn’t, because with the exception of Andrews on occasion, none of them have done a thing that should instill confidence as they take on the Colts.

Indianapolis has had plenty of trouble against running backs this season, having allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to players at that position, and allowing six different backs to amass 90 or more rushing yards. The Colts have had some success recently holding runners out of the end zone, however, having ceded just two scores to backs since Week 8.

Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Antonio Andrews: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Harry Douglas: 55 rec yds
Dorial Green-Beckham: 35 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 85 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Colts lost Andrew Luck, and now Matt Hasselbeck has gone down, leaving the team with Charlie Whitehurst under center. Except he got hurt too after completing nine of his 14 throws for 78 yards and has been placed on IR with a hamstring injury. The team has signed Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley this week and both are competing with Stephen Morris to be the Week 17 starter. It’s hard to imagine any of these QBS having any type of impact in Week 17. The nightmare quarterback situation also hurts the status of T.Y. Hilton, who is now the only Indianapolis pass catcher worthy of being in fantasy lineups. He had 94 yards the last time he faced the Titans, and should be a decent WR2 option against them this week.

Tennessee may have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks this year, but they have also permitted the third-most touchdown passes and fifth-most fantasy points to players at that position. Naturally, that has led to the team surrendering plenty of points to opposing pass-catchers, with the Titans having allowed the 10th-most points to wideouts and the eighth-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore has probably been better than most fantasy owners realize. He did not have a single 100-yard game this year (and just one with at least 90 yards), but he has scored a total of seven times and is currently 10th in fantasy scoring among running backs. Gore had 86 yards and a pair of scores the last time he faced Tennessee, and should be a decent RB2 once again this week.

The Titans have been solid against opposing run games this year, having allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points in the league to running backs. They have given up 60 yards to a back just once since Week 11, and only one rushing score in that same time frame.

Projections:
Josh Freeman/Ryan Lindley: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Frank Gore: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 40 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Colts 17, Titans 16 ^ Top

Ravens @ Bengals - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week Ryan Mallet auditioned for the 2016 backup role to Joe Flacco and performed well in an upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mallet threw for 274 yards and a touchdown. He looked sharp while using a short passing game to pick apart a poor Steelers secondary. With a new quarterback in place it was some depth chart wide receivers making plays for the Ravens as Chris Matthews caught the touchdown pass and Jeremy Butler was heavily involved. However, Kamar Aiken, as usual, was the main target for the Ravens catching all 8 of his targets for 66 yards. Mallet will not be a starting option in daily or those leagues that have a Week 17 fantasy championship game, but once again Aiken could be an option in PPR leagues.

On the season the Bengals defense is allowing 246.3 passing yards per game while giving up 17 passing touchdowns and grabbing 19 interceptions on the season. The Bengals are one of only two teams that have more interceptions on the season than touchdown passes.

Running Game Thoughts: Head Coach John Harbaugh was true to his word that the “punishment” for Allen’s Week 15 fumble would not carry over to Week 16 and the coach was rewarded for his loyalty. The rookie out of USC totaled over 100 yards and scored a touchdown in the win. Both Allen and Terrence West were able to thrash a decent Pittsburgh run defense, and with both backs looking good to finish off the season, perhaps the team will see itself as set at the position for the 2016 season.

Expectations should be tempered against a Bengals team that has been very strong against the run. The Bengals have limited the opposition to 94.5 yards per game this season with only 8 rushing touchdowns allowed. The team did allow C.J. Anderson to run through them with ease during a furious second half comeback by the Broncos this past Monday Night, so perhaps the similarly built Allen could find some running room as well.

Projections:
Ryan Mallett: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
Javorius Allen: 80 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Kamar Aiken: 105 rec yds
Chris Givens: 30 rec yds
Maxx Williams: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: AJ McCarron looked very good in the first half of last week’s game before his second half struggles allowed the Broncos back into the game. McCarron finished 22-of-35 for 200 yards and a touchdown. A.J. Green and Marvin Jones helped make McCarron look good with some amazing catches and runs after the catch. Tyler Eifert missed another game while in the concussion protocol and his presence has been missed. It’s likely he should make it back this week but be sure to check the news wire for updates. McCarron hurt his hand attempting to recover a fumble in Overtime on the winning play for the Broncos, and his status is uncertain for Week 17, but he really isn’t a fantasy option anyway.

The Baltimore pass defense stood tall last week against Big Ben in an upset victory but has been poor more often than not this season. The Ravens are allowing 239 passing yards per game and have allowed 28 passing touchdowns with only 6 interceptions. It’s likely that the defense will suffer a letdown in a meaningless Week 17 game after last week’s game against their hated rival.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals have been a pure RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard and both have been mostly effective in their roles. Hill failed to find the endzone last week which has been the only thing providing him with fantasy value, making him a risky start most weeks. Bernard meanwhile has struggled to run the ball the last several weeks after starting the season strongly. Both backs have eaten into each other’s fantasy value, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this upcoming week.

The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league. They are allowing only 101.1 rushing yards per game with 9 rushing scores on the season but those numbers have been creeping up in recent weeks as the offense has struggled to posses the ball.

Projections:
AJ McCarron: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 30 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Marvin Jones: 35 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 65 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 20, Ravens 13 ^ Top

Lions at Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford came out this week to advocate for new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter to be brought back next season. And why not, as Stafford has been playing well ever has since the team made the switch at OC. Since the Week 9 bye, Stafford has completed 68% of his passes while throwing for 16 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. While it’s mostly been Golden Tate and not Calvin Johnson benefitting from Stafford’s resurgence, last week saw Johnson finally rise up the scoreboard with 6 catches for 77 yards and a score. With Tate and tight end Eric Ebron both being dynamic playmakers as well, the play-calling has avoid targeting Johnson when he’s been double teamed and while Johnson owners may not be happy about it, it’s a strategy that has worked.

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense playing far better than anyone could have realistically expected prior to the season. The pass defense is the fourth ranked unit in the league, allowing only 220.7 yards per game. However, the Bears have allowed 28 touchdowns on the season, but most came early on before the unit gelled into what it has become. This should be an interesting matchup with a hot passing attack going against a stout pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have been the worst rushing offense in the league this season, but have shown some signs of life in recent weeks. Ameer Abdullah, in particular, was finally finding some running room in Weeks 13-15, but struggled once again in Week 16. This has been a three-man RBBC with Abdullah, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick splitting touches all season which has limited the fantasy value of each back. Don’t expect anything to change in Week 17.

It should help, however, that the Bears are a far below average run defense, allowing 124.5 yards per game with 9 rushing touchdowns on the season. Ideally the Lions will be looking to exploit their advantage and run the ball which will only help the passing game open up even more.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Ameer Abdullah: 40 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Joique Bell: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Theo Riddick: 5 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has also had a career resurgence this season, albeit as more of a game manager than a fantasy contributor. The Bears have run a very conservative passing attack which has benefitted Cutler who had become a turnover machine the last couple of the seasons, but has limited his fantasy production. Alshon Jeffery is the star of this passing game and continues to put up big numbers almost every week that he’s been healthy, but the problem is he’s missed six games this season and will be held out this week as well with a hamstring injury that has plagued him throughout 2015. His size and speed combo make him a difficult matchup and that combined with the volume he sees from Cutler make him a great option and virtually matchup proof, but he can’t score you points from the sidelines. The running backs, WR Eddie Royal and TE Zach Miller (toe) will be the primary targets for Cutler.

The Lions’ pass defense had struggled in the early part of the season but has played much better over the second half of the season. The recent surge has moved the Lions up to the 14th spot in the rankings. The team is now allowing 237.5 passing yards per game and 25 touchdowns on the season to opposing quarterbacks. Darius Slay has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league over that span.

Running Game Thoughts: Since his return from injury, Matt Forte has been in a backfield timeshare with rookie Jeremy Langford who was very productive in Forte’s absence. Outside of Week 13 when Forte had 26 touches against the 49ers, this has been a true split which at times has been in favor of the rookie. In the last three weeks Langford has led the team in backfield touches and looked explosive last week against the Buccaneers. Forte and Langford have similar skill sets so it isn’t even a case where each back has a defined role. Forte realizes that he will not be back with the team next season, but he’s still good enough and deserves enough respect that the team will continue to use him while also further auditioning Langford. In what may be his final appearance as a Bear at Soldier Field, this could be a week where the team allows him to bear (no pun intended) much of the workload. Fantasy owners will need to weigh their options and hope for a score when deciding on either back at this point.

It helps that the Lions’ run defense has been very poor during the course of the 2015. The team is allowing 113.1 yards per game on the ground and has yielded a league worst 18 rushing touchdowns.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Jeremy Langford: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 45 rec yds
Josh Bellamy: 30 rec yds
Zach Miller: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Bears 27, Lions 24 ^ Top

Steelers at Browns - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing game came up small against a depleted Baltimore Ravens team in a game that may cost them a playoff spot. Overall, when Ben has been under center this has been one of the best passing attacks in the league. Antonio Brown struggled for a few weeks with Mike Vick at the helm but he still finished as the No. 1 overall wide receiver in PPR leagues once again. With Markus Wheaton finally stepping up, Ben is loaded with options and has carved up most defenses outside of the NFC North but has struggled relatively inside his division. He did dominate the Browns in Week 10 to the tune of a 379-3-1 stat line.

The Browns will be fielding a pass defense that has yielded the third most passing touchdowns in the league with 31 TDs. The Browns’ should be up for their “Super Bowl Week” but it’s unlikely to make much of a difference here unless Ben collapses once again.

Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams has found the fountain of youth and has played beyond what anyone could have expected in Le’Veon Bell’s absence. The team will need Williams and his 32-year-old legs at least one more week and perhaps into the playoffs with a little help from the Buffalo Bills. Williams struggled in Week 10 against the Browns gaining only 54 yards on 17 carries but has 899 rushing yards and 11 TDs on the ground this season and has been a major contributor in the passing games as well. Against a terrible Browns’ run defense, his owners should not expect a repeat of Week 10.

The Browns’ defense is allowing a league worst 135 yards per game, at 4.76 yards per carry, on the ground and has yielded 11 rushing touchdowns. Williams should be in line for a big game this week.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
DeAngelo Williams: 125 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Martavis Bryant: 85 rec yds
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Johnny Manziel has played fairly well during his late season audition but unfortunately he is now in the concussion protocol and will miss this game. That leaves the uninspiring Austin Davis as the team’s starting quarterback all but robbing fans of a potential upset that would knock their most hated rivals out of the playoffs. The lone bright spot in the passing game has been veteran tight end Gary Barnidge. Barnidge at 6’6” and 250 pounds has been a redzone monster and has 977 yards with 9 touchdowns on the season despite shaky quarterback play.

The young Steelers’ secondary has faded quickly after a decent start to the season. The Steelers are allowing 278.2 passing yards per games and have given up 29 passing scores. This will be a favorable matchup, but it’s difficlut to see the Browns taking advantage given the lack of any serious weapons in the passing game, and Davis is a backup level quarterback at best.

Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell has had an up and down season but has finished strongly with 256 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last three games. He should see much of the heavy lifting this week with rookie Duke Johnson being mixed in and handling most of the passing game work.

The Steelers’ run defense has been stout thus far and should make it difficult for the Browns to establish a ground attack. The team is allowing only 91.5 yards per game, and only 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. For those playing this week you would be advised to look elsewhere for help at running back despite Crowell’s recent hot play.

Projections:
Austin Davis: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 25 rush yds
Isaiah Crowell: 55 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Duke Johnson: 25 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Brian Hartline: 25 rec yds
Travis Benjamin: 65 rec yds
Gary Barnidge: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 10 ^ Top

Vikings at Packers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: With Adrian Peterson forced out of the game with an ankle injury in Week 15 the team was forced to rely on Teddy Bridgewater and he had the best game of his career with 231 yards passing a 4 passing touchdowns and a rushing score. That production was short lived and the typical 2015 Bridgewater performance was back in Week 16 as he finished with 168 passing yards and a touchdown. The game plan for the Vikings has been to run the ball with their future Hall of Famer and play defense. That shouldn’t change this week.

Making matters worse for the Vikings, the Packers have defended the pass well, allowing 236.7 passing yards per game with 20 passing touchdowns on the season. Their pass rush has been a difference maker and should be tough on Bridgewater behind a struggling offensive line.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson has been a major part of the offensive game plan and the team should be expected to continue its ground dominated attack with the division on the line. Peterson is still one of the very best runners in the league and his 1,639 total yards with 10 touchdowns is among the best in the league. Jerick McKinnon has seen increased usage the last two weeks (10,11 touches) and could cut into Peterson’s workload a bit.

The Packers’ run defense is allowing 116.9 yards per game on the ground with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season which presents a good matchup for Peterson. In what should be a close game, Peterson should be a major part of the game plan in a meaningful game for both teams.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Adrian Peterson: 135 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 10 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 35 rec yds
Stefon Diggs: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Kyle Rudolph: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s hard to explain Aaron Rodgers’ struggles in 2015, but he does still have his team in position to win the division and a home playoff game. Rodgers had his worst game of the season last week against a tough Cardinal defense completing 15-of-28 passes for 151 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Over his last six games he’s struggled completing only 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,260 yards with nine TDs and four picks. As a result of Rodger’s struggles – or perhaps one of the reasons for them – his pass catchers are all having down seasons as well. As strange as it may be to say this, right now it’s hard to recommend any member of this passing game.
The Vikings’ pass defense is a top 10 unit allowing 232.5 yards per game and 23 touchdown passes. The team has received outstanding play from corner backs Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman and should be able to hold a struggling passing attack at bay.

Running Game Thoughts: The Packers usage of Eddie Lacy and veteran James Starks has frustrated fantasy owners all season. Lacy has rushed for only 724 yards with 3 touchdowns after going for over 1,100 yards in each of his first two seasons while averaging 10 rushing touchdowns. He has been demoted to a backup role, struggled due to an ankle injury and disciplined for missing team curfew at various points this season making him a risky start for his owners.
The Vikings are allowing 111.5 rushing yards per game on the season with 7 scores on the ground making this matchup even less attractive. The Packers could look to rely on the running game this week with Rodgers struggling, but it’s would be risky to rely on either Packer back this week.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
James Starks: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
James Jones: 70 rec yds
Randall Cobb: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 35 rec yds
Richard Rodgers: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 20 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Cardinals - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The hot streak for the Seattle passing game continued this past week when Russell Wilson notched his sixth straight multi-touchdown game. He threw for 289 yards in a surprising home loss to the Rams and while he made some mistakes including a fumble and an interception, Wilson has actually been excellent at avoiding turnovers, especially over this recent six game span. In fact, the interception he threw against the Rams was the only one he’s thrown during the six game stretch where he’s thrown 21 touchdown passes. Wilson continues to get the job done with his legs as well, adding at least a few fantasy points per week on a fairly consistent basis. His top receiver, Doug Baldwin, has been shockingly effective as of late as well. Baldwin caught eight of the 10 targets that came his way against the Rams and he has now scored a whopping 11 touchdowns over just his past five games.

Wilson and Baldwin have been beasts as of late, but they do have a difficult matchup in front of them here in Week 17 as they head to Arizona to face the NFC West division champions, the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona was the last team that held Wilson to fewer than two touchdown passes in a game and that happened all the way back in Week 10 when he was only able to muster 240 yards and a single touchdown pass while also throwing an interception. Baldwin still prospered in that game, however, as he caught seven passes for 134 yards and a touchdown, which was the start of what has been an unbelievable and surprising stretch of elite fantasy production. With Tyrann Mathieu out, the Seahawks might be able to get some favorable matchups for Baldwin if he plays in the slot, but he’ll likely see a lot of cornerback Patrick Peterson now that Baldwin has seen such an uptick in production.

Running Game Thoughts: Since Russell Wilson entered the league and heading into the 2015 season, no team had thrown the ball fewer times per game than the Seahawks. This meant, of course, that the Seahawks were one of the most punishing and effective running games in the league as they used Marshawn Lynch to control the clock and close out countless games. When Lynch and then his backup Thomas Rawls went out, however, the team’s plans changed dramatically. They have now very clearly become a pass-heavy offense, trusting Wilson to do most of the damage on offense while their trio of running backs including Christine Michael, Bryce Brown and Fred Jackson compete for the table scraps. This was fine in Week 15 when the Seahawks smashed the Browns, but when they faced a competitive team this past week against the Rams, there was almost nothing at all in the way of touches or production for the running backs. Michael, Brown and Jackson combined for just 15 carries and none of them produced anything of fantasy value for their owners in the loss to St. Louis.

Now in another tough matchup on the road against Arizona, it will be tough for fantasy owners to go back to trusting any member of this running game, especially because we don’t have a clear outlook on who will even get the bulk of the carries. Yes, the old “hot hand” concept has been spoken about, but without knowing who that hot hand will be, it’s extremely difficult to make a fantasy prediction regarding any player in this backfield. Because of that, it would be wise for fantasy owners to steer clear of this backfield, especially considering that the team ran the ball just 12 times with running backs when these teams played back in Week 10, and that was with Lynch and Rawls both on the field. It’s probably Michael who you’ll want if you are in a desperate situation and have to trust one of these players, but try to avoid this situation altogether if you can.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Christine Michael: 45 rush yds
Bryce Brown: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 10 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 50 rec yds
Tyler Lockett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: One of the best fantasy stories of the 2015 season, Carson Palmer continues to roll as the Cardinals look forward to the playoffs. Palmer has slowed down a bit over the past few weeks as he’s only accumulated 30 total fantasy points over his past two games, but he’s still producing solid enough numbers to remain a quality fantasy starter and his extremely high ceiling has made him one of the least dangerous players in all of fantasy this season. Palmer’s receivers, namely Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown have all had their ups and downs this season, but the unit appears to be hitting its stride now that we are in the fantasy playoffs and heading toward the actual NFL playoffs. Floyd led the team this past week with six receptions for 111 yards, his third 100-yard day over his past four contests. Meanwhile both Fitzgerald and Brown were held to under 30 yards, but both players scored a touchdown to make up for their lack of yardage. For Brown, it was his sixth straight game with at least 99 yards and/or a touchdown.

The last time that Brown was held in check actually came back in Week 10 when he faced the very same Seattle defense that he will be up against this Sunday. Brown was targeted just three times and failed to catch a pass in that game. Fitzgerald, however, had a field day as he caught a season high 10 passes for 130 yards while Floyd had his biggest fantasy day of the season, catching seven passes for 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns - all season highs. The Seattle defense has allowed the second-fewest amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but Palmer is the lone quarterback who has thrown for more than two touchdowns against them this season. Richard Sherman can only cover one receiver each play and while other players in the secondary are certainly great, the advantage in this matchup may well go to the Cardinals and their plethora of offensive weapons.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back David Johnson has certainly been one of the fantasy heroes in this year’s playoff stretch. Since becoming the starter back in Week 13, Johnson has accumulated an impressive 21.5 fantasy points per game (standard scoring). He’s been even better in PPR formats where he’s caught 14 passes over his past four games, a number that is a bit surprising given the lack of pass attempts that came Chris Johnson’s way when he was starting. Johnson accumulated just 39 rushing yards on nine carries during Arizona’s blowout victory over Green Bay this past week, but he added 88 yards as a receiver and scored a rushing touchdown, making him, once again, one of the better fantasy plays of the week despite his 11 total touches.

The rookie has been a huge playmaker and is certainly making a case for being the team’s primary ball carrier going forward, but in order to truly solidify his spot, he’s going to have to prove he can do it against one of the league’s best defenses, the Seahawks. Seattle has been running the NFC West for a few years now and while the Cardinals have clinched the division, they have not yet proven that they have fully taken over control of the division. They have an opportunity to do that by winning this Week 17 game in convincing fashion, which could also help them with playoff positioning. Expect Johnson to get a heavy workload this week as long as the game is competitive, perhaps even doubling or more his Week 16 total of 11 touches. The Seahawks have been ridiculously stingy against opposing running games this season, however, as they’ve given up the fewest points to the position in the league. Arizona did rush for 119 yards on 30 carries when these teams played back in Week 10, however, so they’ve already proven that they can move the ball on the ground if needed, even against this very strong defense.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
David Johnson: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 90 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 20 ^ Top

Chargers @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been a lost season for the Chargers in what might be their final season in San Diego, but don’t tell Philip Rivers. Rivers continues to give every ounce that he has to this team despite a complete lack of weapons to throw to and a practically non-existent running game. This past week, Rivers connected with wide receiver Dontrelle Inman for eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. It was a season high in receptions for Inman who seems to be the new top target in the San Diego passing game while other players recover from injury. Antonio Gates is still a big weapon, of course, but he has failed to get into the end zone in nine of his past 10 games and he’s scored just four times on the season. Still, Gates is fourth in the league in targets at the tight end position which makes him a viable fantasy option despite his very volatile fantasy numbers. The only other receiver in this offense who is even worth looking at right now is Malcom Floyd who will be playing his final NFL game this week and could see a few extra shots down the field just because of that reason. Floyd is still a capable receiver with big play potential so if you’re looking for a shot in the dark, he might not be a bad option.

This struggling passing offense has been decent over the past two weeks, but that might stop very quickly when the team has to head to Denver to face what is perhaps the league’s best pass defense. The Broncos have been incredibly dominant against opposing quarterbacks this season as they’ve given up an average of just 11.6 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to the position. That’s nearly a full point per game better than the next-closest defense, the Seahawks. This past week, the Broncos held AJ McCarron and the Bengals to 200 yards and one touchdown through the air and they had one of their best days of the season when they faced the Chargers back in Week 13. In that game, the Broncos went into San Diego and held Rivers to just 202 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. The Broncos are still fighting for playoff seeding, so don’t expect them to take the pedal off of the medal in this game. Expect a full pass rush and a physical secondary as usual, which could make for a tough day for Rivers and the Chargers.

Running Game Thoughts: While rookie Melvin Gordon was certainly a massive disappointment from a fantasy standpoint this season, there’s no doubting that his skillset was a better fit to run the ball between the tackles than what the Chargers have remaining on their roster in Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown. Brown rushed the ball 14 times for just 17 yards this past week and while he did get into the end zone to save what was otherwise an extraordinarily bad fantasy day, it’s very tough to believe that he’s going to be trusted to tote the rock on a regular basis when he’s barely getting one yard per carry against the Raiders. Woodhead was quite a bit more productive with his touches against Oakland as he ran the ball 11 times for 55 yards while adding 53 yards on eight receptions in the passing game.

While Woodhead has continues to produce great numbers in PPR formats, his lack of consistent rushing attempts has made him tough to trust in standard leagues and that will likely be the case again here in Week 17 as he goes up against one of the league’s toughest defenses, the Broncos. Denver held Woodhead to just three catches for 24 yards when these teams met back in Week 13 and he ran the ball just three times for 10 yards. Gordon was not much more effective in that game as he was only able to muster 55 yards on 12 carries. With Brown and Woodhead essentially splitting what are already a limited number of carries, it’s tough to trust Brown to do much in this game. Woodhead is still a viable PPR option against the Broncos, but his upside might again be limited in this difficult matchup.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 2605 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Donald Brown: 30 rush yds
Danny Woodhead: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Dontrelle Inman: 70 rec yds
Malcom Floyd: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: We’ve seen some great things from Brock Osweiler during his run as the Broncos’ starter and we’ve also seen some not-so-great things, but one thing appears to be sure: the Broncos are intent on keeping him in the lineup even now that Peyton Manning is supposedly ready to play. Manning will reportedly serve as the backup quarterback this weekend as Osweiler gets his seventh straight start. During that time, Osweiler has thrown nine touchdowns while only throwing four interceptions and while he’s only hit 300 yards once, he has thrown for at least 250 yards in all but one of his starts. Those type of numbers don’t exactly make a player a fantasy superstar, but he’s certainly been a viable streaming option. More importantly, though, is that he’s been able to reinvigorate the fantasy production of Denver’s top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The receivers have still been a bit up and down, but Thomas has now made at least five receptions in four straight contests while scoring three touchdowns over that stretch while Sanders has now made 14 receptions for 248 yards and a pair of touchdowns over just his past two games.

Both Sanders and Thomas are solid fantasy options this week as the Broncos host the Chargers in what is a meaningless game for San Diego but could have playoff positioning implications for Denver. It might not be easy, though, as the Chargers have actually stepped things up significantly in recent weeks when it comes to opposing passing games. They started the season off as one of the league’s worst pass defenses, but they’ve given up a total of just three touchdowns and an average of 194 passing yards per game over their past four contests. One of those games actually was against the Broncos and Osweiler back in Week 13 when they held him to just 166 yards and a touchdown. In that game, Sanders was held to just three catches for 19 yards. Still, Osweiler and his receivers appear to be clicking a bit better in recent weeks so now isn’t the time to sit Sanders or Thomas who have been very hot in recent weeks. The other players in this passing game, including tight ends Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis, might be better off sitting for your fantasy squad.

Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson was one of a number of first and second round fantasy draft picks who absolutely killed their owners this season, but unlike a few others who have produced almost nothing, Anderson has shown life from time to time. This past week, he ran the ball nine times for 73 yards including a touchdown while his counterpart, Ronnie Hillman, was able to accumulate just 35 yards on the same number of carries. Hillman remains the de facto “starter” in this backfield, but there really is a split here and neither player is very easy to trust given the lack of overall production from the Denver running game this season. The last time that a Denver running back rushed for over 100 yards in a game was back in Week 12 when Anderson did it against the Patriots. He’s since rushed for a total of just 129 yards in three games, however.

With the Chargers pass defense playing better in recent weeks, they’ve also been much better against the run in recent contests. They were on pace to be one of the worst fantasy run defenses of all time earlier this season and they’re still giving up over 19 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to the position on the year, but San Diego has actually held most of their recent opponents in check. They’ve given up just 119 rushing yards over their past two games and a total of just two touchdowns on the ground over their past five contests. One of those games came against the Broncos back in Week 13. While the Denver backfield did accumulate 125 rushing yards on the day, it was on 34 carries, meaning less than a 3.7 yards per carry average on the day. The Chargers defense has a lot of work to do, but the Anderson and Hillman duo just isn’t very good and they break into one another’s touches enough that neither player has a particularly high ceiling in this matchup.

Projections:
Brock Osweiler: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Ronnie Hillman: 60 rush yds
C.J. Anderson: 40 rush yds
Emmanuel Sanders: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Demaryius Thomas: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen Daniels: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 23, Chargers 16 ^ Top


Raiders @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The young Raiders offense centered around quarterback Derek Carr has certainly been a bright spot this fantasy season. Carr continues to impress as he has now thrown for 31 touchdowns on the year with only 12 interceptions. Wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have been the biggest beneficiaries of an improved Carr who has become a viable weekly fantasy QB. Both receivers have been solid WR2’s throughout the majority of the season and while they’ve each had their share of poor games, they’ve been one of the better duos in the league and one that has to give Raiders fans some hope for the future. Things have taken a bit of a step back over the past couple of weeks, however, especially this past week when Cooper was held to just 10 yards on two catches. Crabtree did get into the end zone for his team-leading eighth touchdown but he, too, struggled to do much in the yardage department, catching six passes for just 39 yards.

Carr continues to show signs that he is a franchise quarterback, but his 5.5 yards per attempt over his past four games is not exactly inspiring. Worse yet is that the four game slump began back in Week 13 when he threw a season high three interceptions against the very same Kansas City defense that he’ll see this Sunday. The Chiefs caused plenty of problems for the Raiders offense as they went on the road and won the game by two touchdowns. Now back in the confines of Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs are an even more daunting opponent. They’ve held their past two home opponents to zero touchdown passes and they’ll look to make it three straight against Carr. While Carr is a bit risky this week due to the tough opponent, he will likely be given plenty of opportunities to throw the ball all over the field, which should still give him a high enough floor for streaming consideration here in Week 17.

Running Game Thoughts: Only four players have rushed for 1,000 yards this season – Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and...Latavius Murray? That’s right, Murray has been quietly productive this season at least from a yardage standpoint. Sure, a handful of other players will almost certainly join the 1000-yard club this weekend, but it’s worth noting that Murray, who is one of the youngest of the bunch, still has so much more to give the Raiders – and fantasy owners – for the future. A 1000-yard rusher usually means a bunch of big games, but Murray hasn’t really been that. He’s been more of the “slow and steady” type of producer, having accumulated just two 100-yard games on the season. He’s stayed relatively healthy, though, which has given him a big leg up on much of the competition. Unfortunately, his high end production has been limited which has made him tough to use in daily formats and often times frustrating or disappointing in season-long leagues.

Murray had one of his better games of the season his past week when he rushed for 79 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while adding an additional 38 yards as a receiver. Things won’t likely be so easy this week, though, as Murray will be up against a very good Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including just seven rushing touchdowns allowed. Murray himself was actually fairly productive when these teams met back in Week 13, though, as he rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Still, this is a road game in Kansas City, one of the most hostile environments in all of football, and the Chiefs have been excellent in most games, making Murray more of an RB2 than an RB1. What makes him startable for season-long leagues, though, is that he continues to get the vast majority of the team’s running back touches.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Amari Cooper: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s rarely exciting, but Alex Smith continues to be an effective fantasy quarterback with a fairly high floor in the safe Kansas City offense. Smith has scored at least 11 fantasy points (standard scoring) in all but one game this season but he’s only reached 20 points four times. This lack of high ceiling makes him very difficult to use as a QB1 despite the fact that he regularly finishes near the bottom end of the top 12 at his position on a week-to-week basis. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin has been a very solid fantasy producer most weeks, but especially lately. Maclin has caught at least five passes in each of his past five games while scoring five total touchdowns over that span. Tight end Travis Kelce continues to be a viable option at his position despite falling short of many experts’ preseason expectations and he did score his fifth touchdown of the season this past week.

The Raiders defense has been significantly better in the second half of the season than they were in the first half, but they’re still not a great unit overall. The Raiders have given up just two multi-touchdown passing games to opposing quarterbacks over their past seven games. One of them did come against Smith and the Chiefs back in Week 13, however, when the Kansas City QB tossed a pair of touchdowns – both to Maclin – despite throwing for just 162 yards. Smith also ran for a touchdown during that game, one of just two rushing scores he’s had this year. With the Chiefs now playing at home as opposed to on the road as they were in Week 13, look for Smith and his weapons to perform even better than they did before.

Running Game Thoughts: The fear of the dreaded goal line vulture continues in Kansas City as Spencer Ware has stolen quite a few potential touchdowns from Charcandrick West since the duo took over for the injured Jamaal Charles, but things might have gotten quite a bit clearer this past week. West was on the field for 45 offensive snaps in the Chiefs’ victory over the Browns while Ware got just six snaps. Ware did touch the ball on five of those six plays so he’s certainly being used when he does get on the field, but the fact that West got such a big workload is definitely inspiring for fantasy owners’ confidence. West has now touched the ball at least 10 times in every game since becoming the Chiefs’ starter which has allowed him to become a borderline RB1 in most matchups.

The Raiders’ defense has been average against the run this season, but they did hold the Chiefs running game in check when these teams played a few games back. In that game, the duo of West and Ware combined for just 61 yards on a combined 16 carries. While West has shown some big play ability, he isn’t the superstar that Charles was, so he typically does need more touches in order to reach his full potential. Expect both players to get substantially more work in this game as the Chiefs attempt to control the clock and keep their players healthy for the playoffs. 20 touches is not out of the question for West this week and while Ware is always a threat to snipe a touchdown from him, West should be a solid fantasy contributor this week.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Charcandrick West: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Spencer Ware: 25 rush yds
Jeremy Maclin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20 ^ Top

Rams @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: A pathetic fantasy performance from the Rams’ passing game in what was a tough matchup against the Seahawks this past week, but 103 yards and one touchdown was even worse than most expected. Case Keenum had thrown for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns the previous week – both season highs – but he has now failed to throw for even 150 yards in three of his four starts. Of course, that has meant almost no production from any other player in this passing game. Kenny Britt has been the team’s top receiver under Keenum and he has now caught touchdowns in back to back weeks despite having not caught more than three receptions in any of his past four games. Britt does have the potential for a touchdown, but his high end potential isn’t great and it wouldn’t be surprising if he went catchless in any game, making him a poor fantasy option in any format.

San Francisco was expected to be and has turned out to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, but their pass defense has been the lone bright spot in what has been an otherwise dreadful year. While they’re only a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, that’s significantly better than they are against the run. Of course, some of the reason that they have been able to avoid being passed on might be because they are being run on so much, but it’s still something to consider for fantasy purposes. The Rams running game is certainly more productive than their passing game, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them keep the ball on the ground as much as they can.

Running Game Thoughts: One of only four 1,000-yard rushers this season, Rams running back Todd Gurley has certainly been a fantasy superstar in his first season and has made his claim to be the top running back off the board in 2016. The rookie runner is unlikely to play this weekend, however, as he is dealing with a foot injury, which means that we’ll likely be seeing Tre Mason take over the starting duties here in Week 17. Mason was productive as a rookie himself in 2014, but lost his job when the team drafted Gurley. Although Mason does have some plug-and-play potential due to the likelihood that he will get the majority of the carries, his upside might be capped as Benny Cunningham and even Tavon Austin will still get some touches.

Mason and the Rams backfield will have an excellent matchup here in Week 17 as they will be up against a horrendous 49ers run defense. San Francisco has given up a whopping 20 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, including at least one touchdown in all but two games. Gurley and the Rams rushed for an impressive 179 yards and a touchdown when these teams played back in Week 8, so there is certainly some upside here for Mason and even Cunningham for those in a desperate situation. The Rams shocked everyone when they went on the road and beat the Seahawks this week which could lead to a bit of a letdown here in a meaningless game against the 49ers, but there’s reason to believe that there could be some unexpected, solid production from the St. Louis backfield.

Projections:
Case Keenum: 165 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 40 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Kenny Britt: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The 49ers certainly didn’t come into 2015 with the hope that Blaine Gabbert would be their quarterback for the future, but they may very well end the year with that being a strong possibility. Gabbert has certainly outplayed Colin Kaepernick with his playing time and he has now thrown for nine touchdowns with six interceptions on the year. There was some concern that he was regressing again in recent weeks when he failed to do much through the air against the Browns, Bears and Bengals, but he silenced those critics – at least for one week – with a nice performance against the Lions. Gabbert tossed a pair of touchdowns with 225 passing yards and didn’t throw an interception. The pass catchers in San Francisco have been extremely volatile all season, however. No 49ers receiver has gone over 100 yards since Anquan Boldin did it all the way back in Week 6.

After a hugely impressive start to the season where the held opposing quarterbacks to just five passing touchdowns in their first eight games, the Rams secondary has really fallen apart in the second half of the season. In their past seven games, they’ve given up 15 passing touchdowns, including multiple touchdowns in all but one game during that stretch. This past week, Russell Wilson threw for nearly 300 yards and a pair of scores against this defense. When the Rams played against the 49ers earlier this season (Week 8), it was the final appearance for Kaepernick who was benched for Gabbert the following week. While Gabbert is certainly an improvement at quarterback, it’s hard to know who’s going to be on the receiving end of his passes. The top option might actually be tight end Vance McDonald who has shown signs of breaking out this year, including this past week when he caught five passes for 61 yards. Still, he’s been way too up and down to be trusted for anyone other than the most desperate fantasy owners.

Running Game Thoughts: With three running backs now on IR, the 49ers had to turn to the waiver wire to find someone to run the ball. They opted for DuJuan Harris who signed with the team less than a week before he got the starting job against the Lions in Week 16. Harris was productive, running for 73 yards on 11 attempts, and likely assured that he will again get the majority of the touches again here in Week 17. Despite being an awful offense, the 49ers have committed to their running game seemingly no matter who they have toting the rock, which has at least given them a reasonably high floor. Unfortunately, the ceiling hasn’t been high as the team just hasn’t put up enough points to make them a great fantasy option.

In Week 17, Harris and the 49ers will have a tough matchup against a Rams defense that just got done holding the Seahawks to a combined 26 yards on 15 carries. While they’ve been run all over by a few opponents, the Rams have at least been good at holding running backs out of the end zone in recent weeks. Over their past six games, St. Louis has only given up one total rushing touchdown. Still, they’ve given up quite a few yards to the position, which should give Harris owners some hope in what should be at least a competitive game. It’s hard to be very excited about anyone in the San Francisco offense, but Harris might be the one player who could be in your lineup in standard leagues.

Projections:
Blaine Gabbert: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 10 rush yds
DuJuan Harris: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Jarryd Hayne: 25 rush yds
Anquan Boldin: 60 rec yds
Quinton Patton: 35 rec yds
Vance McDonald: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Rams 23, 49ers 17 ^ Top