Passing
Game Thoughts: There might not have been a more disappointing
offense in Week 14 than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had everything
going in the right direction: the offense was clicking, they were
playing at home and they were against the Saints - one of the
absolute worst defenses in the league. Fantasy production had
to be coming, right? Wrong. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston
had one of his lowest scoring performances of the season while
Mike Evans disappointed even worse than that, catching just three
passes for 39 yards on only four targets. That target number was
particularly discouraging considering that Evans’ duo, Vincent
Jackson, left the game early with a knee injury. Tight end Austin
Seferian-Jenkins also fell short of expectations, catching just
three passes for 31 yards.
The complete dud in the fantasy playoffs was a harsh blow to
fantasy owners, but those who survived the disaster could make
up for it this week as the Bucs head to St. Louis to face a defense
that has struggled against the pass in recent weeks. The Rams
actually started the season off as one of the best pass defenses,
having allowed just five passing touchdowns against through their
first eight games. They’ve seen a steep and sudden decline,
however, where they’ve given up 11 passing touchdowns over
their past five games. With Jackson ruled out and the Tampa running
game working well in recent weeks, expect the Bucs to exercise
a fairly run-heavy gameplan. That said, the running game could
open up the passing game and lead to some big plays for Evans
who is in need of a big game to get back into fantasy owners’
good graces. Expect Evans to at least double his target numbers
from a week ago, which makes him a viable starter in all formats.
Unfortunately, it may be too late to expect much from Seferian-Jenkins
or other members of the receiving corps who have not yet come
alive this season.
Running Game Thoughts: While it was a disappointing performance
for the Buccaneers as a whole this past week, the one positive
that Tampa can take from the game is that their running game continues
to look very good. Doug Martin, who has seen his season ranking
move all the way up to No. 3 among running backs in 2015 standard
scoring formats, has now scored six touchdowns while exceeding
1,400 total yards from scrimmage. What’s been even more
impressive is that while Martin has provided rock solid RB1 numbers
for fantasy owners, another back - Charles Sims - continues to
produce viable flex numbers in PPR formats. Martin rushed for
81 yards and a touchdown against the Saints while Sims added six
receptions for 64 yards and 10 rushing yards. Martin is certainly
the better fantasy player, but with all of the injuries sustained
to running backs around the league, Sims possesses value not just
as a handcuff for Martin but also as a low-end flex option.
The Bucs running backs will have an interesting matchup in front
of them here in Week 15 as they head to St. Louis to play against
a Rams defense that has not been great at containing running backs
this season. The unit is currently 24th in fantasy points given
up to the position (standard scoring) and opposing teams have
averaged 121.5 rushing yards per game against them over their
past six contests. With the Rams offense playing as poorly as
it has been, their opponents’ offenses have had plenty of
opportunities to run the ball without fear of falling behind on
the scoreboard. Expect more of that this week as the Buccaneers
continue to run the ball heavily, primarily with Martin while
still utilizing Sims as a pass-catching and change-of-pace back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s difficult to get excited about
the St. Louis passing game. A team that traded their perceived
franchise quarterback, Sam Bradford, this past offseason in exchange
for Nick Foles has seen Foles lose his starting job to journeyman
Case Keenum. Keenum, who suffered a concussion and missed two
games, returned to action in Week 14, but was every bit as ineffective
as Foles. The fourth-year quarterback threw for just 124 yards
last week as essentially tasked with handing the ball off to Todd
Gurley and not turn the ball over. He did throw one interception
and failed to throw a touchdown pass which brought his fantasy
total to low single digits on the day in what was perceived to
be a good matchup against the Lions. Keenum’s mediocre fantasy
performance didn’t lead to much from his receivers, either,
as the team had just two players - Tavon Austin and Bradley Marquez
- reach three receptions on the day. No receivers exceeded 40
yards on the day. Austin, who is really the only player worth
considering in this passing game, continues to disappoint most
weeks, but does has been getting a handful of rushing attempts
per game, which has helped him supplement what is otherwise typically
a lackluster fantasy day.
Keenum had a tough time producing against the Lions last week,
but he does have another solid matchup this week against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has given up multiple passing touchdowns in all but
four of their games this season, including five 300-yard days.
Still, Keenum is one of the few fantasy quarterbacks who isn’t
worth considering other than in the deepest of two-quarterback
formats. To put things into perspective, Todd Gurley’s 140
rushing yards in Week 14 were more than Keenum has thrown for
in either of his two starts this season. With Kenny Britt having
not scored since all the way back in Week 2, the only Rams passing
option worth looking at is Austin, who himself has failed to exceed
seven fantasy points (standard scoring) in five of his past six
games. Avoid this St. Louis passing game if at all possible.
Running Game Thoughts: While quarterbacks Jameis Winston and
Marcus Mariota appear to be making their case as cornerstones
of their respective franchises, the best offensive rookie of 2015
might just be Rams running back Todd Gurley. Since taking the
Rams’ starting running back job in Week 4, Gurley has been
on an absolute tear, rushing for nearly 100 yards per game while
scoring eight rushing touchdowns. The more impressive thing is
that he’s been doing it despite playing against stacked
boxes alongside one of the league’s most ineffective passing
games. Gurley’s impressive numbers have been good enough
that many fantasy experts have pegged him as the potential future
No. 1 overall fantasy draft pick of the 2016 season. While he
struggled in Weeks 12 and 13 due to lack of touches and game flow,
a new offensive coordinator and a revitalized commitment to the
run allowed Gurley to carry the ball 16 times for 140 yards and
two touchdowns in a St. Louis win over Detroit in Week 14. Gurley
now has five games with over 125 rushing yards and while his usage
in the passing game has been limited, he is by far the focal point
of this Rams offense and a must-start most weeks.
Gurley will again be in most fantasy lineups here in Week 15
despite going up against a top-10 fantasy run defense. Tampa Bay
has held opposing teams’ running backs to fewer than 100
rushing yards in eight of their past 10 contests and they’ve
surprisingly only given up one rushing touchdown over that stretch.
Still, Gurley’s physical talent and the fact that the Rams
coaching staff has repeatedly said that they plan to continue
to feed him the ball has to give fantasy owners some confidence
even in this tough matchup. Gurley might not be the player to
break the daily fantasy bank on, but considering the number of
injuries to running backs throughout the league, it would be hard
to foresee a situation where it would make sense to bench him
in season-long leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After being arguably the No. 1 – and
at worst the No. 2-ranked quarterback heading into the season,
it’s been a bit disappointing to see what Aaron Rodgers
has done so far this season. He’s currently the No. 5 QB,
scoring just barely more than the typically undrafted Blake Bortles
on a per game basis, and his high points just haven’t been
what they’ve been in the past. Even in a dominant victory
over the Cowboys this past week, Rodgers managed to throw for
just 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns. A decent fantasy day,
certainly, but the lack of huge, week-winning fantasy performances
have been obvious. Rodgers has now failed to throw for more than
two touchdown passes in nine of his past 10 games. Certainly missing
his biggest deep threat in Jordy Nelson has been a factor, but
the other Green Bay receivers just haven’t stepped up on
a consistent enough basis. The best of the bunch, as expected,
has been Randall Cobb, but even he is only the 22nd-highest scoring
wide receiver in PPR formats and he has failed to make a trip
to the end zone in three straight games. Fellow wideout Davante
Adams has become essentially a non-factor for fantasy purposes
while tight end Richard Rodgers was only able to save what was
otherwise a dreadful fantasy day this past week with a three yard
touchdown – his only catch of the day.
On the bright side for fantasy owners who need something from
the Packers this week, the Raiders have been awful against the
pass this season. They’re on pace to give up more than 4,500
passing yards and while they’ve only given up 21 total touchdowns
through the air, QB’s have averaged 18.2 fantasy points
per game against them. What’s been a bit surprising is that
Oakland has done a solid job of containing opposing wide receivers,
having only given up seven touchdowns to the position on the year,
but they’ve been atrocious against tight ends, having given
up a league-most 11 touchdowns to the position. This past week,
it was the Broncos’ tight ends who failed to get into the
end zone but still caught 10 passes for 117 total yards. Richard
Rodgers does make for a nice streaming play at tight end this
week in this ideal matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy has been one of the most disappointing
players in all of fantasy football this season, but if there’s
a time for him to come alive, it’s now. Thankfully, he’s
been up to the task – at least for the most part. The Packers
running back failed to reach the 100-yard mark in any of his first
nine contests, but has since exceeded the century mark in three
of his past four. This past week, Lacy took his highest number
of carries for the season – 24 – totaled his highest
rushing number for the year – 124 yards – in a Packers
win over the Cowboys. The one game where Lacy didn’t reach
100 in his past four came in Week 13 against the Lions when he
got just five carries which he took for four yards. Of course,
that was because Lacy had missed curfew one night during the week
so his punishment was watching from the sidelines. Lacy’s
otherwise high production has caused some problems for James Starks,
who has failed to reach even 40 rushing yards in three of his
past four games. Starks’ high usage in the passing game
has helped him raise his floor in PPR formats, but his only double-digit
scoring day (standard scoring) came this past week against the
Cowboys when he scored twice.
The Raiders defense has not been great this season, but they’ve
certainly been better against the run than they have the pass.
They’re middle-of-the-pack against opposing running backs,
having conceded an average of 16.3 fantasy points per game (standard
scoring) to the position. They’ve been great against the
run as of late, too, as they’re giving up an average of
just 52.5 rushing yards per game over their past four contests
with only one rushing touchdown conceded over that stretch. It’s
worth noting that they had given up a whopping 383 rushing yards
in the two games prior to this recent dominance, but those games
came against the Steelers and Vikings, two of the league’s
better rushing offenses. The Packers remain a fairly pass-heavy
offense, so don’t expect a huge workload for Lacy and Starks
but both players are still worth considering for fantasy purposes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a marquee win for second-year quarterback
Derek Carr this past week as he and the Raiders got a big road
victory over the division-leading Broncos. Unfortunately for fantasy
owners, the huge win didn’t lead to much from a fantasy
standpoint as the Raiders defense did most of the damage. Carr
did toss a pair of touchdowns, but neither went to Michael Crabtree
or Amari Cooper. The duo, who have been one of the best in the
league this season, were completely held in check by the Broncos.
Cooper failed to catch a single pass on eight targets –
his first zero-catch game of his career – while Crabtree
made just four catches for 19 yards himself – his lowest
total of the season. This was a killer for fantasy owners who
were just hoping for something out of their Raiders’ wide
receivers and could have been the difference between playoff wins
and losses.
Those who survived the rough games from Cooper and Crabtree should
be in line for better days to wrap up the season, however, as
any other defense looks to be substantially more exploitable than
the Broncos. In Week 15, the Raiders receivers will test a Packers
secondary that ranks just inside the top 10 in fewest fantasy
points per game given up to opposing wide receivers after their
dominant performance over the Cowboys this past week. Green Bay
held the Dallas wide receivers – including Dez Bryant –
to just eight catches for 74 yards on the day in what was by far
their best performance of the season. Of course, a Matt Cassel-led
offense is not exactly the same as the high powered Oakland passing
game, but it’s worth noting that despite this being a much
better matchup than what Crabtree or Cooper saw against Denver,
Green Bay are no slouches. Still, the high volume of targets make
both players viable WR2’s this week while Carr remains a
streaming option at quarterback.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s hard to blame Latavius Murray
for his lack of production this past week against one of the league’s
best defenses, but fantasy owners have to be hugely disappointed
with the 16-carry, 27-yard output that they got from their running
back in Week 14. The Raiders were also unable to supplement his
low rushing totals with usage in the passing game as he failed
to haul in a single reception for the second time in his past
four games. It’s been a tough stretch for Murray as of late,
in fact, as he has failed to exceed even 60 rushing yards in four
of his past five games, adding just two total touchdowns over
that stretch. He did have a nice day in a tough matchup against
the Chiefs in Week 13, but his inconsistency has made him tough
to trust especially now that we’re in the fantasy playoffs.
Murray owners who are without better options should have a bit
of optimism heading into Week 15, however, as their young running
back does have what appears to be a decent matchup against the
Packers. Green Bay has given up double digit fantasy points (standard
scoring) to opposing teams’ running backs in each of their
past four games, including a 162-yard day to the Dallas backfield
who were able to get things done on the ground despite losing
the game in blowout fashion. We haven’t seen it often this
season, but Murray possesses big play ability that the Packers
have been susceptible to in recent weeks and it would not be all
that surprising to see him break off a long run in this game.
While he’s been disappointing as of late, Murray continues
to be the only player in the Oakland backfield who touches the
ball on a regular basis, so that puts him a cut above the majority
of the plug-and-play potential starters on fantasy waiver wires
at this point.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It doesn’t always look pretty, but
Cleveland quarterback Johnny Manziel manages to have a few big
plays whenever he gets an opportunity. This past week Manziel
utilized the play action passing game to carve up the 49ers for
270 yards and a touchdown. The team itself doesn’t appear
sold on Manziel and fantasy owners shouldn’t be either as
he has failed to exceed 15 fantasy points in any game this season.
What’s been a bit strange is that Johnny Football hasn’t
been running the ball nearly as much as we thought he would. The
Cleveland QB has not exceeded 35 rushing yards in any contest
and he has not scored a rushing touchdown either. Of course, the
talent is there, but Manziel might be playing with a bit more
reserve due to his current standing with the coaching staff. Attempting
to limit potential mistakes or injuries could go a long way in
ensuring that he is within the team’s long term plans at
the position. One knock on Manziel from a fantasy standpoint had
been that he was not targeting the team’s only real fantasy
threat, tight end Gary Barnidge, often enough. Barnidge’s
numbers – particularly targets – had been down with
Manziel in the game as opposed to Josh McCown, but Barnidge has
now had back-to-back solid games with Manziel throwing him the
ball, including a nice five-catch, 84-yard, one touchdown performance
against the 49ers this past week.
Things get a whole lot more difficult this week as they fly across
the country to meet one of the league’s most fearsome defenses
– the Seattle Seahawks – in arguably the most hostile
environment in all of football. Seattle has been dominant as of
late as they’ve held their past four opponents to a combined
total of just two passing touchdowns despite facing an average
of 40 pass attempts per game over that stretch. While Richard
Sherman isn’t usually a “shadow” cornerback,
chances are that he will see plenty of wide receiver Travis Benjamin
in this game, which could mean that the only viable fantasy option
in this offense is, once again, Barnidge. If there’s one
position that the Seahawks have struggled to stop this season,
it has been tight ends who have caught 67 passes for 788 yards
and seven touchdowns against them on the year. Barnidge is by
far the team’s best red zone threat as he has scored eight
touchdowns during his breakout 2015 campaign and if the Browns
get into the end zone through the air, there’s a good chance
that it’ll be Barnidge getting his ninth score of the season.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s not often that the Browns win
a game by multiple scores, but when they do, it’s good to
see that they are willing to feed their running backs the ball.
That’s what happened this past week when the duo of Isaiah
Crowell and Duke Johnson ran all over the San Francisco defense
to the tune of 223 yards on 33 carries. Crowell led the team with
20 attempts for 145 yards and two touchdowns – his first
trips to the end zone on the ground since all the way back in
Week 2 – capping off what was by far the biggest fantasy
day of the season. Johnson added 78 yards on the ground on 13
carries, once again showing that he has the skills to at least
be involved in the Cleveland running game for years to come. Unfortunately
for Johnson, having Manziel at center has meant fewer looks for
him in the passing game. In the five games in which Manziel has
played significant snaps for the Browns this season, Johnson has
caught a total of just seven passes – an average of just
1.4 receptions per game. In his other eight games, Johnson has
averaged an impressive 5.25 receptions per game.
Certainly the game plan will be different this week as the Browns
aren’t likely to get out to a multiple score lead on the
road against the Seahawks, so don’t expect the Cleveland
backfield to approach anywhere near 33 carries this week. In fact,
20 carries between the two backs might be more likely, which makes
both players tough to start against a Seattle defense that has
conceded fewer than 3.5 yards per carry against them this season.
The Seahawks have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing
running backs in the league and despite the Browns seemingly having
some momentum heading into this game, it seems unlikely that they’re
going to be able to replicate anywhere near those totals in what
is the toughest on-paper matchup for running backs. Seattle has
not allowed a team’s running backs to exceed even 40 rushing
yards in any of their past four games. They’ll look to make
it five straight in Week 15.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Most fantasy owners foresaw a potentially
huge season for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson after the Seahawks
made the move to acquire tight end Jimmy Graham during the offseason.
But the Seattle passing offense, surprisingly, was ineffective
through the first 10 weeks as Wilson had just one multiple touchdown
day while Graham and the rest of the Seattle receivers failed
to establish any semblance of consistency. But over the past four
weeks, including multiple games since Graham’s season was
ended due to injury, the Seahawks have finally begun to move the
ball through the air. Whether it’s been an increased commitment
to passing due to the numerous injuries that the team has suffered
at running back or not, the Seahawks are throwing the ball as
well or better than any team in the league at the moment. Wilson’s
16 touchdowns over his past four games are by far the best stretch
of his career and better than any quarterback in the league at
the moment. Better yet, he hasn’t turned the ball over a
single time over his past four games. Wilson has been targeting
a plethora of receiving options, but it has primarily been veteran
wide receiver Doug Baldwin who has been getting the job done as
of late. Baldwin has scored an astonishing nine touchdowns over
just his past five games. To put that into perspective, Baldwin
had never scored more than five touchdowns in an entire season
heading into 2015.
This red hot Seattle passing game should have another potentially
big game on their hands this week as they host the Browns and
their 25th-ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks. Cleveland
has given up 26 passing touchdowns this season while intercepting
a measly eight passes, and they’ve given up nine multiple
touchdown games to opposing quarterbacks on the season. For fantasy
owners of either of the top Seattle wide receivers, Baldwin or
Tyler Lockett, there is even better news – the Browns have
given up just shy of 200 receiving yards per game to opposing
wide receivers over their past eight games, including 10 touchdowns
to the position over that stretch. Lockett has been tough to predict,
mixing in big games with terrible games, but when he’s been
good, he’s been really good. He’s made 13 catches
for 194 yards and two touchdowns over his past two games and has
to be considered a high upside play here in Week 15.
Running Game Thoughts: Injuries to Marshawn Lynch and now backup
Thomas Rawls have forced the Seahawks to scour the waiver wire
in hopes of finding someone – anyone – to carry the
rock for them this week. The team signed two backs, Bryce Brown
and Christine Michael, and both players are expected to compete
for carries here in Week 15. The Seahawks do still have veteran
running back Fred Jackson on the roster, but Jackson hasn’t
taken more than seven carries in a game this season as he has
primarily played in a complementary role as the team’s third
down back, protecting Wilson as a blocker or catching checkdown
passes out of the backfield. The three-headed backfield makes
for a particularly tough fantasy situation to predict as we just
don’t know who is going to get the first opportunity or
who is going to gel better with the current, pass-heavy Seattle
offense. It’s certainly possible that all three backs see
the field enough to make none of them a particularly exciting
fantasy option, but most experts seem to agree that it will be
Brown, who was signed a day before Michael, who will get the first
crack at carries.
Whoever touches the ball in this backfield does have some potential
for fantasy production as they go up against the 22nd-ranked Cleveland
fantasy run defense. The Browns have given up nearly 1,500 rushing
yards already this season – fourth-most in the league –
and they’ve also conceded nine total touchdowns to the position.
Recently, however, they’ve been playing a bit better as
they’ve held three of their past four opponents to fewer
than 100 rushing yards on the day, including the 49ers backs to
just 52 yards this past week; the Browns best defensive total
so far this season. With the Seahawks not necessarily trusting
either Michael or Brown, look for the team to rely heavily on
their passing game which has been working extraordinarily well
in recent weeks. As such, there may be limited opportunities for
everyone in the Seattle backfield this week, perhaps with the
exception of goal line touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The disappointing season for Dolphins quarterback
Ryan Tannehill continues as the fourth-year signal caller seems
to be taking steps back this season after what was a bit of a
breakout season in 2014. Tannehill has struggled mightily over
his past two games against the Ravens and Giants, both of whom
rank in the bottom six in the league in fantasy points given up
to opposing quarterbacks this season. Over his past two games,
Tannehill has thrown for a total of just 322 yards and two touchdowns.
This has led to some disappointing numbers from each of his top
targets, Jarvis Landry, Davante Parker and Jordan Cameron. Landry
did have a nice game this past week in PPR formats as he caught
11 passes for 99 yards, but some fantasy owners might have not
had him in their lineups as he was coming off of a disastrous
two-catch, five-yard performance in Week 13 against the Ravens.
Parker was the opposite as he had caught three passes for 63 yards
and a touchdown in Week 13, only to follow it up with a two-catch
for 16-yard game this past week. Jordan Cameron, meanwhile, has
almost completely fallen off the fantasy radar, as he has failed
to exceed 40 yards in any game since all the way back in Week
2.
The struggling Miami passing game won’t be up against a
particularly stingy defense this week, but San Diego has certainly
been better against opposing passing games than either of the
Dolphins’ past two opponents. San Diego currently ranks
13th in fantasy points given up to opposing QB’s, but they’ve
actually been solid as of late. Over their past three games, they’ve
given up an average of just 14 fantasy points per game to opposing
QB’s, which puts them among the better units in the league
over that stretch. Some of that, of course, has been gameflow-dependent
as the Chargers were blown out in two of those games which led
to a fewer number of pass attempts against. Still, the Chargers
haven’t given up a single game over 23 fantasy points (standard
scoring) to an opposing quarterback and it doesn’t appear
likely that the struggling Tannehill will get there this week.
Other than Landry, who remains near the top of the league in targets,
this is a matchup to avoid.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller reminded fantasy owners how
good he can be with a huge first half against the Giants this
past Monday night. The back rushed for 89 yards and two touchdowns
on the night, including a dazzling 38-yarder where he made the
defense look like a pop warner team. What was bizarre, however,
was the play calling which started off very run heavy in the first
half, only to become almost exclusively passing in the second
half of what was a one-score shootout. Miller got just 12 carries
on the night despite averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. This game
was a good example of what has happened to this talented young
back throughout the season. Miller’s 5.1 yards per carry
puts him among the league’s best runners, but the Dolphins
have opted to run the ball fewer times than any team in the league
this season. This has led to coaching changes, but the end result
hasn’t really changed much – Miller just isn’t
touching the ball enough on a week to week basis to be a consistent,
high-end fantasy contributor.
A wise coaching staff would look at Lamar Miller, then look at
the San Diego defense, and craft a gameplan around getting the
rock to their running back. But unfortunately, we just don’t
know if that will be the case. The Chargers have given up the
fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this
season and have held just three teams to fewer than 100 rushing
yards against, but the Dolphins appear to be content with throwing
the ball nearly 37 times per game, so there’s a real chance
that Miller is once again held in check in what should be an extraordinary
matchup for him. The upside here is great, though, so it will
be tough to sit Miller unless you’ve rostered some great
alternative options.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been a lost season for the Chargers
in what could be their final year in San Diego. Franchise quarterback
Philip Rivers has done everything he can, but the injuries have
just been too much and the high-end passing game we saw through
the first half of the season is gone. Rivers was sacked a season-high
five times this past week in a loss to the Chiefs. Worse yet,
he and the San Diego offense failed to put a single touchdown
on the board for the third time in four weeks as they have now
become one of the league’s least-efficient units. Rivers’
fantasy numbers have also been dreadful over the past month as
other than the one outlier against the Jaguars, he’s failed
to reach even 10 fantasy points in three of his past four games.
With wide receiver Stevie Johnson (groin) not expected to play
this weekend, the Chargers will again look to a group of journeymen
wide receivers who seem to have little upside in what should be
an excellent matchup against the Dolphins here in Week 15. Miami
has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers
so far this season, including 18 touchdowns to the position. This
past week, it was Odell Beckham Jr. and the Giants receivers who
humiliated the Dolphins for 18 catches, 270 yards and three scores.
Unfortunately, San Diego’s offense is in shambles right
now and there just aren’t any players who are stepping up
to become consistent targets for Rivers. Don’t expect another
no touchdown game out of Rivers, but predicting who will get into
the end zone as a receiver is extremely difficult and not worth
the risk from a fantasy standpoint.
Running Game Thoughts: If you thought the San Diego passing game
was bad, brace yourselves – the running game is about to
make this offense look even worse. Over their past eight games,
the duo of Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead have averaged just
54.5 rushing yards per game. Worse yet, neither player has rushed
for a single touchdown since all the way back in Week 1. Sure,
Woodhead continues to supplement his measly rushing totals with
some decent work in the passing game, but even that has subsided
for him in recent weeks. Woodhead has just 80 receiving yards
over his past four games combined and he hasn’t been in
the end zone since Week 9.
This is, without question, one of the worst rushing attacks in
football at the moment and neither player is particularly tantalizing
from a fantasy perspective, especially now that we’re in
the playoffs. Of course, if there was ever a time for this team
to start running the ball effectively, it would be now as they
go up against a Miami defense that has given up the fourth-fewest
fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season and is
one of only three teams to have already given up more than 1,500
rushing yards. The Dolphins haven’t held an opposing team’s
running backs to fewer than 12 fantasy points (standard scoring)
since Week 6. During that stretch, opposing running backs have
averaged a total of 22.6 fantasy points per game against the Chargers.
There are points to be had here in this game, but the question
is if the San Diego offense is up to the task. The team appears
to have quit on their coaching staff and things couldn’t
be much worse than they are right now.
Passing
Game Thoughts: An impressive first three quarters of the
season had some experts touting the Bengals as potential Super
Bowl contenders this season. That all might have changed this
past week, however, as quarterback Andy Dalton went down with
a thumb injury, potentially ending his season. There is hope that
Dalton could return later in the playoffs should the Bengals make
it that far, but for fantasy owners who are currently in their
own playoffs, this injury is a potential disaster not just for
those who were relying on the Bengals’ quarterback, but
also for the other members of this offense. The team now turns
to backup quarterback AJ McCarron who threw for 280 yards and
a pair of touchdowns in relief of Dalton this past week against
the Steelers, but also threw a pair of interceptions including
the team’s first pick-six of the season. McCarron himself
is not likely much of a fantasy option, but what will be important
is that he continues to get the ball to the Bengals’ top
pass catcher, wide receiver A.J. Green. Green, who ranks seventh
in fantasy points at the wide receiver position, gave fantasy
owners some hope this past week by catching six passes for 132
yards, including a highlight reel touchdown in double coverage.
Green is one of the few players in the league who might be able
to continue to produce WR1 numbers even without his quarterback,
but this injury to Dalton certainly does hurt his stock a bit.
The 49ers have been awful on defense as a whole this season,
but they’ve certainly been better against the pass than
they have the run. Of course, much of that comes from the fact
that they’ve been involved in so many blowout losses which
has led to opposing teams passing the ball fewer times than they
otherwise would, but still – the fact remains that the 49ers
defense has only given up one multiple-touchdown day to an opposing
quarterback over their past seven games. That includes games against
the likes of Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Matt
Ryan. With McCarron behind center and a concussion likely preventing
tight end Tyler Eifert from playing, the only players in this
passing game who should be considered for fantasy purposes are
Green and fellow wide receiver Marvin Jones who could have some
value as a PPR play in deep leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: With the injury to Dalton at quarterback,
the Bengals might be wise to run the ball more heavily than usual
this week in what most believe will be a Cincinnati win. The Bengals
running attack has been spotty at best this season, though, as
they’ve struggled to create much consistency on a week to
week basis. Jeremy Hill, who has been one of fantasy football’s
biggest disappointments this season, had one of his best games
back in Week 13 as he ran the ball 22 times for 98 yards and a
touchdown; his highest rushing total of the season. Unfortunately,
he followed it up with a complete dud in Week 14 against the Steelers
when he carries the ball just seven times for 16 yards –
the sixth time that he’s been held to 40 or fewer rushing
yards in game this season. Giovani Bernard wasn’t much more
successful as he totaled just 67 yards and failed to get into
the end zone for the seventh straight week. Bernard remains a
much better play in PPR formats, but even his receiving totals
have been mediocre lately as he’s caught just six passes
over his past three contests.
The Bengals unit should be in line for a productive day here
in Week 15, however, as they will be running against the league’s
worst fantasy defense against opposing running backs, the San
Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are currently giving up a whopping
22.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including
17 total touchdowns and well over 2,100 total yards. This defense
is exploitable both on the ground and through the air for running
backs, so both Hill and Bernard should have a decent potential
for fantasy production. The question is how the coaching staff
will choose to operate this game. Will they choose to limit McCarron
and avoid potentially costly turnovers and injuries, or will they
opt to see what they have in the young quarterback in an effort
to get him ready for the playoff push? It’s hard to know,
but one thing seems to be sure – Hill and Bernard should
be more involved in the offense now than they have been earlier
in the season and while it’s risky to trust either of them,
these are the moves that can either make or break you in the fantasy
playoffs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The move from Colin Kaepernick to Blaine
Gabbert seemed to give the 49ers at least a temporary boost, but
the effects seem to be wearing off here late in what is a lost
season. This past week, the 49ers put up just 10 points against
a mediocre Browns defense. To his credit, Gabbert has at least
avoided turnovers for the most part. He’s only thrown three
interceptions in his five starts while tossing six touchdowns.
Unfortunately, he’s failed to exceed even 200 yards in four
of his six starts. Trying to predict who Gabbert is going to throw
to has also been extremely frustrating. Wide receivers Anquan
Boldin and Torrey Smith have both had solid games with Gabbert
behind center, but they’ve also had their fair share of
terrible games. Tight end Vance McDonald had a nice two week stretch
where he caught 10 passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns, but
then caught just two passes the following week, only to miss Week
14 due to a concussion. McDonald has been fully cleared to play
this Sunday and should be back on the field as one of the top
targets in this passing game.
With Gabbert and the 49ers’ offense struggling to do much
against the Browns this past week, their Week 15 matchup against
the Bengals just doesn’t appear to be very exciting for
fantasy purposes. The Bengals have allowed the third-fewest fantasy
points to opposing QB’s this season and they’ve been
unbelievable as of late, having held each of their past three
opponents without a passing touchdown. This past week, they kept
the red hot Pittsburgh passing offense out of the end zone. In
fact, with the exception of a hiccup against the Cardinals back
in Week 11, the Bengals have held opposing QB’s to one or
zero touchdown passes in nine of their past 10 games. We’re
in the fantasy playoffs and now is not the time to risk relying
on the 49ers offense. Avoid if at all possible.
Running Game Thoughts: Just because a player is getting almost
all of the running back touches for his team doesn’t necessarily
mean that he’s going to produce fantasy numbers. Shaun Draughn
is currently showing that as he is playing almost every down,
whether run or pass, but he has only reached double digit fantasy
points (standard scoring) in one of his five starts. Draughn also
hasn’t exceeded 60 rushing yards in any game. Fortunately
for fantasy owners in PPR formats, Draughn has been getting the
job done as a receiver. He’s made 24 receptions in his five
starts, which has helped make him one of the running backs with
the highest floors in PPR formats despite the 49ers offense being
mediocre as a whole.
The Bengals defense has been great as a whole this season, especially
lately. While they started off the season weak against the run,
the Bengals have certainly stepped it up in recent weeks. They’ve
held opposing teams’ running backs to fewer than 80 yards
in each of their past six games, including holding Todd Gurley
to just 19 yards in Week 12. While DeAngelo Williams did get into
the end zone twice this past week, the Bengals had not given up
a rushing touchdown in any of their six games prior. With the
49ers offense struggling to put up points as a whole, going up
against a high quality Bengals defense, this just doesn’t
look like a great matchup for Draughn. That said, he continues
to touch the ball 15-plus times per week, so he should be able
to get some fantasy points even if the 49ers don’t put up
many points in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing outstanding
football. His last three games have to easily be the best three-week
stretch of his career. Since the Jets’ entire team failure
against the Texans Week 11, the team has rattled off three straight
wins and looked particularly impressive in the most recent one
against the Titans. Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 touchdowns over the
past three games and has not turned the ball over once. As an
added bonus, he’s tacked on 20-plus rushing yards in each
game as well. It helps that he has the best receiver duo in the
league to throw to. Eric Decker continued his impressive streak
of 80 yards or a score in every game this season while Brandon
Marshall scored for the sixth consecutive game. Marshall now has
over 100 yards or a score in all but one game. The Jets passing
attack has been a consistent and reliable source of production
for the entire season. While the Cowboys have been stingy against
opposing receivers, allowing just 221.1 passing yards per game
and 14 passing touchdowns on the season, Fitzpatrick, Marshall,
and Decker can all be trusted to do what they’ve been doing
all season.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory got back on track last week,
handling the ball 22 times on the ground for his first 100-yard
rushing game since Week 6 (full disclosure: he had 99 yards Week
10). I still feel as though he could get hurt at any time, but
so far so good. The only thing missing from Ivory’s game
last week was a touchdown. Bilal Powell stole that one, albeit
through the air. Powell totaled 36 yards on just three carries,
proving that Ivory is still the man on the ground. Where Powell
did his damage was through the air. He caught all five of his
targets for 46 yards and the aforementioned touchdown. Powell
has now scored in back to back games and has 13 receptions over
that span. If you need a flex option to replace one of the many,
many players injured in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs,
Powell is not a bad idea. The Cowboys are ranked in the middle
of the pack in rush defense, but got absolutely torched by Eddie
Lacy and James Starks last week and have now allowed 13 rushing
touchdowns on the season. There should be plenty of work to go
around for both Ivory and Powell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cowboys passing game is like the Giants
running game – move along, nothing to see here. Except,
I am forced to see. Constantly in the national spotlight, the
Cowboys are a consistent showcase of futility. “We believe
in Matt Cassel. We believe he can win games for us.” –
Jason Garrett. Really? Are you watching the same Matt Cassel as
the rest of us, Mr. Garrett? After Romo went down for the second
time, there was all this talk about how much better Cassel would
be and how he benefited from being able to watch Romo. In his
two games post second Romo injury, Cassel has completed exactly
50 percent of his passes for 337 yards and one interception. He
brings absolutely nothing to the table and he has sucked all the
life out of Dez Bryant. Bryant is one of the most passionate players
in the league. He cares. A lot. He wants to win. That attitude
is great when a team is competitive. However, for the first time
in his professional career, he will not be on a team playing 16
competitive regular season games. The Cowboys’ season is
over as is Bryant’s motivation. If you somehow made it to
the fantasy semifinal with Bryant on your roster, you cannot start
him. In a game where the Cowboys trailed and Sam Shields went
down early, Bryant could not do anything. Part of the blame is
on Bryant himself as he apparently spent his rehab time at the
Ted Ginn school for catching.
This week, he gets Darrelle Revis. It would not shock me if he
went without a catch. The Jets just held Marcus Mariota scoreless…sort
of… he did catch a 41-yard touchdown, but he couldn’t
do anything through the air. Mariota is infinitely better than
Matt Cassel. The best hope for anyone invested in Bryant is for
Cassel to be so abysmal that he gets benched for Kellen Moore.
It’s not that Moore is an amazing talent; it’s just
that he can’t possibly be worse than Cassel. I’m going
to go out on a limb and say that’s exactly what happens.
Hopefully you can make it to your fantasy championship without
the services of your first round pick and former elite receiver.
Running Game Thoughts: If there’s any positive from the
Cowboys offense, it’s that Darren McFadden looked really
good again. He only had nine carries, but he racked up 111 yards.
Unfortunately, the touchdown went to Robert Turbin, who looked
good in his own right with 51 yards on seven carries. The Cowboys
will undoubtedly continue to pound away on the ground this week.
The problem is that the Jets have the best run defense in the
league. Last week, the Titans running back collective totaled
just 21 yards on the ground. The Jets now allow an average of
78.9 rushing yards and just 3.6 yards per carry. They are truly
an elite unit and have still allowed only two rushing scores.
The volume will be there for McFadden, but he has to be treated
as nothing more than a low end RB2 in this one.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota’s performance last
week against the Jets was anything but surprising. The fact of
the matter is that he struggles against quality defenses. It is
for that reason this week’s matchup against the Patriots
is very unappealing. The Patriots mauled Brian Hoyer last week
and may have legitimately ended his season as a result of all
the vicious hits laid on him. Mariota is far more elusive, but
Belichick will have a plan in place to stymy him. Last week was
Mariota’s fourth game this season without a touchdown pass.
Against the AFC East, Mariota has thrown one touchdown against
four interceptions and two fumbles. Now, he faces the best team
in the division. The Patriots have a top 10 pass defense and allow
opposing passers to complete less than 60 percent of their throws.
Mariota will look to Delanie Walker a lot, which makes him an
every week TE1. However, Belichick’s claim to fame defensively
is eliminating the opposition’s top weapon. That would be
Delanie Walker. Beyond Walker, the only player worth starting
is Dorial Green-Beckham and purely because of the raw talent and
big play potential. He is just as likely to put up a dud as he
is to shine.
Running Game Thoughts: The Titans rushed for 24 yards as a team
last week. Part of the problem was an early deficit, but that
problem is not going away against Tom Brady. Upon his return from
injury, Dexter McCluster was starting to make an impact in the
passing game. However, just as quickly has returned, he was lost
again as he was placed on IR with a broken wrist. Antonio Andrews
and David Cobb will once again carry this backfield, although
there are reports that Bishop Sankey may actually have a role
as well. With the injury epidemic continuing last week, there
are a number of waiver options far superior to any Titans running
back. In a game where the Titans project to be down early against
an above average Patriots run defense, look elsewhere for a desperation
flex play.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The story of last week with the Patriots
was not Tom Brady. It was the return of Rob Gronkowski. Gronk
wasn’t out there every snap and only saw four targets, but
he made them count. He had a couple long receptions as well as
a “go get it” touchdown at the goal line. Brady’s
other touchdown went to Keshawn Martin, who played well and continues
to push Brandon LaFell for playing time. Both players’ playing
time would be in significant jeopardy if Julian Edelman were to
play. However, I do not believe we see him again the regular season,
even amidst reports of him looking sharp at practice. Brady spread
the ball around, but overall had a disappointing fantasy performance
as he failed to throw a second half touchdown and threw just 30
passes, his second fewest of the season.
Brady is primed for a big game this weekend as the Titans are
awful against the pass. They’ve already been torched by
the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blake Bortles. They only allow
232.5 passing yards against per game, but are tied with the Dolphins
for the third most touchdowns allowed at 28 on the season. This
is a great spot for Brady to put your fantasy team on his back
and carry you to a final.
Running Game Thoughts: Already down Dion Lewis, the Patriots
took another hit last week when LeGarrette Blount exited with
a hip injury. He has played his last snap in 2015 as the Patriots
placed him on IR as well. In Blount’s absence, it was Brandon
Bolden that handled the running. While he and James White mostly
shared work in passing situations, Bolden was the clear primary
ball carrier. That makes him a top pickup this week and a strong
candidate to start for your team sans Blount. It also makes James
White an intriguing option.
With the backs splitting time, both could return flex value against
a Titans defense that is lackluster against the run and has struggled
to cover running backs out of the backfield on passing plays,
as Bilal Powell and T.J. Yeldon showed the past two weeks. The
Titans allow 111.5 rushing yards per game and have allowed 10
rushing touchdowns on the season. Both backs could be heavily
involved early and it could be Bolden running out the clock in
the fourth quarter.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After back to back huge performances in
suspect matchups, Tyrod Taylor was poised to explode against the
Eagles’ hapless defense. Instead, he finished with just
one touchdown. He did throw for 268 yards and rush for 53, but
he also turned the ball over. The competitive nature of the game
kept him throwing, which was a boon for Sammy Watkins and Robert
Woods. Watkins scored for the third straight game and appears
to be finally realizing his potential as a WR1. Woods had himself
a nice game as well with 5 catches for 106 yards. Watkins is a
must start in a great matchup against a burnable Redskins secondary
allowing 242.4 passing yards per game and having allowed 24 touchdowns
on the season. As for Taylor, it’s become impossible to
predict when he will produce. The matchup is good, but that hasn’t
mattered as Taylor has struggled just as often in quality matchups
as he’s produced in poor ones.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy topped 100 total yards last
week, but severely disappointed in his so-called revenge game
against Chip Kelly. I expected McCoy to run wild and really make
a point to stick it to his former coach. Instead, he averaged
just 3.7 yards per carry on 20 carries while adding 35 yards on
4 catches. It wasn’t a terrible game and certainly not the
type to lose you a matchup, but given the expectations, I would
not have been pleased. Mike Gillislee handled the ball just three
times on the ground, but he was the one to find the end zone.
It was a very frustrating game to watch as a McCoy owner.
The Redskins are quite poor against the run, allowing 4.6 yards
per carry and 121.3 yards per game. It is easy to get discouraged
after a player disappoints, but if you’ve made it this far
with Shady, he cannot only be trusted, but relied upon to be your
RB1 this week. Remember, if he got that touchdown last week, the
story would be entirely different. Start Shady with confidence.
Passing
Game Thoughts: No quarterback has a larger contrast in
home and road splits than Kirk Cousins. With that being said,
I think the situation has been overblown to an extent. Cousins
has only thrown for multiple scores in two games all season. One
of those games was Week 7 against the Bucs in a game where the
Redskins were behind big and early. The other was Week 10 against
the Saints and nothing anyone does against the Saints can be taken
seriously. His stats are bolstered by the fact that of his four
rushing touchdowns on the season, three of them have come at home.
Also, the three most difficult defenses Cousins has faced, the
Jets, Patriots, and Panthers, have all been on the road.
This week, Cousins gets the Bills at home, but he is not a recommended
option. DeSean Jackson is banged up and Pierre Garcon has been
irrelevant for weeks. Jordan Reed is producing like an elite TE1,
but he has shown to be matchup proof. His only concern is his
health, which is not a problem for at least one more week. The
Bills have struggled against the pass, but do hold opponent passers
to just a 58.5 completion percentage. The only Redskin you should
be trusting is Reed.
Running Game Thoughts: So much for that Alfred Morris resurgence.
Yes, he did score last week for the first time all season and
he did handle the ball 11 times, but this is now Matt Jones’
backfield. With Chris Thompson out of the picture, Jones and Morris
are the only two games in town and Jones out-touched Morris yet
again this week, 20-11. Jones rushed 18 times for 62 yards and
caught 2 passes for 24 yards. While Jones wasn’t overly
impressive, Morris was downright anemic with 24 yards on 11 carries
and nothing in the passing game.
The Bills have not fared well against running backs as of late,
struggling with Darren Sproles, Chris Polk, and Spencer Ware.
They allow 4.2 yards per carry and have allowed 9 touchdowns on
the ground this season. Unfortunately, none of this matters because
the Redskins running game has been so unpredictable and unreliable
that with a spot in the fantasy final on the line, Matt Jones
cannot be in your lineup. However, if you must, Jones is the guy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I don’t think any professional athlete
has ever had more fun than Cam Newton is having this season. He
just loves to play. And even though his group of receivers consists
of Greg Olsen and a bunch of benchwarmers, he is in the midst
of an MVP campaign and the holder of the best record in football.
Newton’s ability as both a passer and a runner make him
a combination of a mid-range QB1 and a low end RB2. Put them together
and you have one elite fantasy quarterback. The biggest knock
on Newton is his low completion percentage, but much of that can
be attributed to Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess’ inability
to catch. Since Week 2, Newton has scored multiple touchdowns
in every game aside from the Thanksgiving demolition in Dallas
(which was more due to his elite defense doing the scoring for
him). Newton has especially excelled when opposed by cupcake defenses
like the Saints, Redskins, and Falcons.
This week, he gets the Giants, who continue to expand their “lead”
in terms of passing yards allowed per game (now up to 308.4).
The situation could not be better for Newton to lead fantasy teams
to the final. While Newton’s owners should be legitimately
concerned about how much the Panthers try or care over the final
two games, there is no way Ron Rivera is resting his starters
just yet. Newton will play to win this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart was on pace for one of
the quietest 1000-yard seasons in history. He has been a high
floor guy all season, topping 50 yards in every game. His ceiling
has been capped by Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton at the goal line,
but J-Stew has been very reliable and safe to use this year. Unfortunately,
he sprained his foot last week and although the injury is not
serious and he is probably good enough to go, he will not play
as Ron Rivera is going to be very cautious with any potential
injuries over the remaining three games. It would not be a surprise
if we don’t see Stewart again until the second round of
the playoffs. So what exactly does this mean for the Carolina
backfield? Mike Tolbert’s role is unlikely to change so
that leaves Fozzy Whitaker and Cameron Artis-Payne to handle the
majority of the work. Artis-Payne has been inactive for more games
than he’s played in while Whitaker is a middling talent
who hadn’t received more than two carries in a game before
last week following Stewart’s injury. Whitaker is going
to start, but the guy handling the majority of the carries will
be whoever looks better in game. While both are worth a speculative
add in case one seizes control for Week 16, neither can be trusted
this week, even in a favorable matchup against an underwhelming
Giants run defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I admit it. I did not think Odell Beckham
would be terrible, but I had him ranked somewhere around 10-15
at receiver. I was wrong. Very, very wrong. Beckham is a true
generational talent and can do things very few have ever been
able to do. His first touchdown last week was way more impressive
than he got credit for. It just seems like if he is able to get
his hands on the ball, the ball just stops as soon as he touches
it. It’s incredible to watch. He was on his way to a quality
game last week even before the Dolphins defense decided that covering
Rashad Jennings on a meaningless underneath route was more important
than covering the second best receiver in football (yes, I’ve
finally decided to put Beckham ahead of Julio Jones). Beckham
caught a slant and took it a long way. That catch and score put
him over 100 yards receiving for the sixth straight game and he
had already found the end zone for his fourth straight. Beckham
is never going to lead the league in catches, but this is a guy
who can be amongst the top 3 in yardage for years to come.
So what happens when the unstoppable force (Odell Beckham) meets
the immovable object (Josh Norman)? For the past six weeks, absolutely
nothing has been able to slow down Beckham. For the entire season,
absolutely no one has been able to do anything against Norman.
I know Norman doesn’t completely shadow receivers, but if
he were ever to make an exception, it would be this week. I don’t
think the Panthers will take him out of his comfort zone on the
edges, but Norman should go wherever Beckham goes. I am excited
to see how this plays out. The Panthers and Bengals are the only
teams in the league with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed.
I would not feel confident starting Eli Manning against a defense
allowing just 223.2 passing yards per game. However, while benching
some quality receivers against Norman is wise, there is no way
you should even consider that with Beckham. He may not get to
100 yards, but he is too talented to be completely erased.
Running Game Thoughts: Rashad Jennings is coming off his best
game of the season with 81 yards on 22 carries. He dominated the
backfield in both snaps and touches and rightfully so. I am convinced
that Andre Williams must have some serious dirt on Tom Coughlin
because there is no other logical explanation as to how he’s
still on this team (or any team, for that matter). Even with his
performance last week, Jennings should still be nowhere near fantasy
lineups. Do not let recency bias cloud your judgment. The Giants
still struggle to move the ball on the ground and this is a game
where they project to struggle to stop the Panthers from scoring,
thus likely putting them in a position to have to throw often.
The Panthers allow just 84.6 rushing yards per game and have not
allowed an opposing player to be the leading rusher in any game
they’ve played this season other than Doug Martin in Week
4. Do not look for Jennings to be the second.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cardinals’ passing attack is just
a medley of fantasy goodness. Carson Palmer is one of the top
3 MVP candidates and has thrown for multiple scores in all but
three games this season. He is an elite QB1 that can be trusted
regardless of the matchup. Contributing to his success are three
fantasy relevant receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and
Michael Floyd. After dominating in the early part of the season,
Fitz has settled in as high floor WR2. It’s not his fault
his production has dropped, it’s just that the Michael Floyd
breakout everyone thought would happen last year is happening
now. In his last four healthy games (discounting his 1-14 effort
against the 49ers where he was limited with a hamstring injury),
Floyd has totaled between 102 and 113 yards receiving and scored
four times. Fitz may be Palmer’s safety valve, but Floyd
is the guy he looks for downfield and in the end zone. Even with
Floyd and Fitz producing at high levels, Brown has also been rock
solid, with 99 yards or a touchdown in four straight.
The Eagles are very bad at defending the pass, allowing 258.8
yards through the air per game and having allowed 29 passing touchdowns
on the season. Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods gave them a ton
of trouble last week. Fitz, Floyd, and Brown are all WR2s this
week.
Running Game Thoughts: It is absolutely mindboggling how little
the purported “experts” know about football players.
When Chris Johnson went down, so many talking heads were acting
like it was somehow a bad thing. What is Arizona ever going to
do without their 30 year-old washed up running back who had averaged
2.9 yards per carry over his last four games before going down?
The CJ?K injury transformed the Cardinals from a very good team
to a Super Bowl contender because it unleashed David Johnson.
Comparing DJ to CJ is like comparing Palmer to Drew Stanton. That’s
how much better David is than Chris. The younger, more talented
Johnson had 8 touchdowns on the season before he even became the
starter. All he’s done since then is average 4.6 yards per
carry and top 120 yards of total offense in his two starts. The
only thing standing between David Johnson and a top 24 pick next
season is the possibility that the Cardinals bring back Chris
Johnson to be something more than a change of pace guy. Let’s
hope it doesn’t happen. Thankfully, that is not a concern
this week as once again, DJ will handle 20-plus touches in an
extremely favorable matchup. The Eagles allow 126.8 rushing yards
per game and 4.4 yards per carry. Running backs don’t come
much better than David Johnson this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles are still terrible. Sam Bradford’s
team managed to get a win over the Bills, but there’s just
nothing here to get excited about. Bradford is not even in the
conversation for fantasy starter and his 247-yard, 1 TD, 1 INT
game did nothing to change that. Jordan Matthews didn’t
get his fluky touchdown this week, so naturally he did absolutely
nothing. Nelson Agholor made a brief appearance in the end zone,
which did nothing for anyone. Zach Ertz did have 98 yards on 5
catches, which was easily his best game of the season. He may
have been in a few lineups given the dire situation at tight end,
but he is not a reliable weekly option.
The Cardinals actually got carved up by Teddy Bridgewater last
week and may have ultimately lost the game if Mike Zimmer knew
how to coach. Last week’s game notwithstanding, the Cardinals
have been one of the better pass defenses this season. They allow
just 234.7 passing yards per game and have forced 16 interceptions,
which is one of Sam Bradford’s specialties. The Eagles are
a very erratic team and becoming increasingly difficult to predict,
but this is a really bad spot for them against a team looking
to lock up the 2 seed. Avoid all Eagles.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week, I said I would be surprised
if Ryan Mathews didn’t lead the Eagles in carries. Ryan
Mathews led the Eagles in carries…with 13…for 38 yards.
Chip Kelly split the backfield almost evenly between Mathews,
Demarco Murray, and Darren Sproles, essentially rendering all
of them useless. Somehow, Sproles was the guy at the goal line
though because logic. Chip Kelly has no idea what he is doing
and as a result, as many as five talented, potentially fantasy
relevant players, are being ruined or wasted. Things aren’t
going to get any easier against a top five Cardinals rush defense.
Although they have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season,
the Cardinals allow just 87.7 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards
per carry. With a three-headed monster in the backfield and no
real rhyme or reason to when each player is in the game, against
a tough defense, it is impossible to trust anyone on the Eagles.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Atlanta was smeared 38-0 by Carolina last
week, which marked their sixth consecutive loss. Matt Ryan threw
for only 228 yards in the contest, was held without a touchdown
pass for just the second time this season, and is in danger of
falling outside the top-20 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.
At least the team still has Julio Jones, who picked up 88 receiving
yards but hasn’t scored since Week 8 and is now out of the
top-five in fantasy points at his position. Jones is still a must-start
on a weekly basis, but Ryan should only be used based on a favorable
match-up, which he has this week against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville owns the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense,
are 21st in touchdown throws permitted, 20th in yards per attempt
allowed, and 27th in interceptions. The Jags have given up 25
or more fantasy points to a quarterback on seven occasions this
season, and have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points in
the league to players at that position. As for opposing pass-catchers,
Jacksonville has been a bit better than league average in terms
of fantasy points allowed to wideouts, but have ceded the fourth-most
in the NFL to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
ran for only 40 yards last week against the Panthers and added
another 22 yards via reception, middling totals which have become
the norm in recent weeks. Freeman hasn’t amassed at least
50 rushing yards since Week 8 and has all of one touchdown since
Week 6. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be sitting Freeman this
week, but expectations should be somewhat limited as he takes
on Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are 13th in the NFL against the run, and fifth in
yards per carry allowed, but are also 24th in rushing scores ceded
and have given up the sixth-most receiving yards in the league
to running backs. Still, they have improved recently, holding
all but one back to 60 or fewer rushing yards since Week 9, and
having allowed only one touchdown run by a back since Week 10.
This has helped lead them to a middle of the league ranking –
15th – in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles threw for 250 yards with three
touchdowns last week in Jacksonville’s 51-16 dismantling
of Indianapolis, and the young signal-caller now has 10 touchdowns
with only one interception over his last three games. Bortles
has three fantasy-worthy targets in wideouts Allen Robinson and
Allen Hurns, and tight end Julius Thomas. All four of the aforementioned
deserve to start for fantasy squads this week despite a difficult
match-up against an Atlanta squad that has held opposing passing
games in check.
The Falcons are 12th in the NFL in pass defense, eighth in touchdown
passes allowed, 16th in yards per pass attempt given up, and sixth
in interceptions despite accumulating the fewest sacks in the
NFL. Atlanta had not allowed three touchdown throws in a game
until last week when Cam Newton did it against them, but the Falcons
have still surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points in the
league to quarterbacks and the second-fewest to wide receivers,
though they have permitted the seventh-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon
(knee) was having a solid game for the Jags last week, carrying
11 times for 62 yards, before an injury forced him to leave the
game. Denard Robinson replaced him and promptly picked up 75 yards
and scored his first touchdown of the season. Yeldon will sit
this week, making Robinson a strong flex option against the Falcons.
Atlanta is 15th in the league in run defense and 10th in yards
per carry allowed. For much of the season they were last in the
NFL in rushing scores permitted, but that ignominy now belongs
to Detroit, with the Falcons right behind them. Atlanta has also
allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing backs, and
has given up the third-most fantasy points in the league to players
that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer is out this week due to a concussion,
which means T.J. Yates gets the start at quarterback for the Texans.
Even against Indianapolis, Yates is not an option for fantasy
owners, and in fact Houston has only one player that fantasy owners
care about – wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The Clemson
product picked up only 52 yards on three catches in his team’s
loss to the Patriots last week, but he remains in the top-five
in fantasy scoring at his position, and regardless of who is throwing
him the football, should be highly productive this week against
a bad Indianapolis pass defense that he burned for 169 yards in
Week 5.
Just how bad have the Colts been recently? In the last two weeks,
Ben Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles combined to throw for more
than 600 yards with seven touchdowns against Indianapolis, who
now rank 27th or worse in total pass defense, touchdown throws
allowed, and sacks. Only three teams have given up more fantasy
points to quarterbacks than the Colts, and just two teams have
surrendered more points to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Without Arian
Foster, there is very little for fantasy owners to take note of
concerning the Houston run game. Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes
each get some carries, but neither player has shown enough to
be considered viable options against Indy in a crucial week for
fantasy owners. Alfred Blue took a back seat last week and it
was later revealed that he had a back injury. He’s expected
to be on the field this week but none of the three backs in Houston
can be trusted in fantasy lineups.
The Colts are 25th in the league in run defense, and 24th in
both rushing scores permitted and yards per carry ceded. Recently,
Indy has been busy recently allowing quarterbacks and wide receivers
to torch them, but running backs have also had some fun against
them. Backs have picked up more than 100 yards against them in
three straight games, and more than 130 in their last two games.
For the season, the Colts have surrendered the ninth-most fantasy
points in the league to opposing runners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts were annihilated by the Jaguars
last week by a score of 51-16. The team continues to offer little
production to fantasy owners, with Matt Hasselbeck throwing just
one touchdown over his last two games, uneven production by T.Y.
Hilton, an injury to Donte Moncrief (foot) which could keep him
out this week, and scant production from Andre Johnson or any
of the team’s tight ends. Hilton is the only real fantasy
option, but he has only two touchdowns over his last six games,
and his yardage total in that time period looks like this: 15,
82, 21, 95, 36, and 132. Still, he is the best Indy has to offer
in a tough match-up with Houston.
The Texans have held each of the last six quarterbacks they’ve
faced to fewer than 230 passing yards, and that includes the likes
of Drew Brees and Tom Brady. As such, the team is now third in
the NFL in pass defense and ninth in yards per pass attempt allowed.
Houston is also 16th in touchdown throws permitted, 17th in interceptions,
and 12th in sacks. They are squarely in the middle of the league
in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and tight ends,
but have given up the 10th-fewest to wideouts, and from Week 5
on have ceded 90 or more yards to an individual receiver just
once.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore ran for 60 yards on 16 carries
last week against the Jaguars, and has seemingly slowed down as
the season has progressed. He hasn’t broken the 60-yard
mark or scored on the ground since Week 9, and has fallen short
of 4.0 yards per carry in every game since Week 7. It should be
noted that Gore had 98 yards and a touchdown when Indy and Houston
played in Week 5, but that seems like a long time ago, and the
veteran back is little more than a flex option this week against
the Texans.
Houston ranks 19th in the NFL in run defense, 20th in rushing
scores surrendered, and 23rd in yards per carry allowed. They
had a streak of five consecutive games without allowing a running
back to score broken last week by New England’s James White,
and the Texans are now 14th in the league in fantasy points allowed
to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has had some big games
this season, but for the most part has been mediocre for his fantasy
owners, throwing for more than a pair of touchdowns just twice
and ranking 12th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. And though
Golden Tate leads Detroit in receptions, Calvin Johnson remains
the best fantasy option, despite catching only one pass for 16
yards in the Lions’ loss to the Rams last week. Johnson
is 11th in fantasy points at his position, is closing in on 1,000
receiving yards, and should be considered a very strong WR1 this
week. Stafford should also be in starting lineups, along with
Tate and Eric Ebron, considering the prime match-up they all have
with New Orleans.
Last week, the Saints did something they had only accomplished
one other time this year – hold a quarterback to less than
two touchdowns. It should be noted both times it came against
rookie Jameis Winston, but still, it’s an achievement considering
how dreadful their pass defense has been. Anybody paying the slightest
bit of attention to professional football is aware of New Orleans’
struggles (to put it mildly) to stop other teams from moving the
ball via the forward pass, so there is no need to rehash the numbers
here.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions are a passing team through and
through, with the fifth-most passing attempts in the NFL and the
second-fewest rushing attempts. They also utilize three different
backs in Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell, and Theo Riddick, and those
factors limit the team’s fantasy output in the running game.
Riddick’s 67 receptions make him a PPR dream, but outside
of that there is very little the team’s backs can offer
fantasy owners, even against the Saints.
New Orleans obviously cannot stop the pass, but they aren’t
having much luck containing the run either, having allowed a running
back to gain 75 or more yards against them in each of their last
five games. For the year, no team in the NFL has allowed more
rushing yards or a higher yards per carry average, and the only
reason they are 20th in rushing scores surrendered is because
of the volume of passing touchdowns they allow. The Saints have
also given up the most receiving yards in the league to running
backs, are tied for most touchdown receptions ceded to backs,
and trail only the 49ers in fantasy points allowed to players
at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints beat the Buccaneers last week
behind a 316-yard, two-touchdown, and zero-interception performance
from Drew Brees, who has put together a pair of strong games after
struggling in his two previous outings. The only disappointing
aspect of the game for fantasy owners was Brandin Cooks, who had
only 29 yards on three receptions, but Willie Snead reappeared
on fantasy radars with 122 yards, and Marques Colston caught a
pair of touchdowns, tripling his output for the year. Brees and
Cooks should continue to be utilized by fantasy owners, and they
should also take a good look at Ben Watson this week due to his
quality match-up with the Lions.
Detroit is 10th in the league in pass defense and has held four
of the last six quarterbacks they’ve faced to fewer than
200 passing yards. The Lions are also 13th in touchdown passes
allowed, having given up more than two scoring throws in a game
just once this year. They are a top-10 unit in terms of sacks,
but only the Ravens have fewer interceptions, which is one reason
why they are in the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points
allowed to quarterbacks and wideouts instead of being near the
top. Aside from their failure to create turnovers, the other area
Detroit has struggled in is covering tight ends. They have given
up the second-most touchdowns in the league to players at that
position, as well as the fifth-most fantasy points.
Running Game Thoughts: Tim Hightower replaced the injured Mark
Ingram as the Saints’ lead back last week, and it was obvious
he was going to get a heavier workload than before, but even he
might have been surprised at how heavy. Hightower carried the
ball 28 times against the Buccaneers and picked up 85 yards with
one touchdown. The game confirmed the lack of confidence the Saints’
coaching staff has in C.J. Spiller, and also made Hightower a
focus for fantasy owners. He is a solid RB2 this week against
a Detroit team that has been welcoming opposing backs into the
end zone this season.
The Lions are tied for 21st in the NFL in run defense and are
18th in yards per carry allowed, but no team has surrendered more
rushing scores. Detroit had been doing a better job in recent
games, but Todd Gurley squashed them for 140 yards and a pair
of touchdowns last week. However, the Lions have also allowed
the fifth-fewest receiving yards in the league to running backs,
and are one of just two teams who has yet to allow a back to score
via reception, and that has limited – to a degree –
the number of fantasy points that runners have accumulated against
them, and part of the reason why they rank 11th in fantasy points
given up to running backs instead of ranking first or second.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Alex Smith now has the Chiefs at 8-5 after
starting the season 1-5. While the “game manager”
tag isn’t likely going away any time soon, the Chiefs’
passing attack has been a little more dynamic lately and Smith
has even used his receivers, Jeremy Maclin and Albert Wilson,
effectively. He’s even managed to find them in the endzone
a few times this season. Imagine that. Last week Wilson scored
on a 44-yard slant pattern beating one-on-one coverage in San
Diego. Smith has thrown for 3,034 yards with 15 touchdowns and
4 interceptions and has also gained 366 yards and scored twice
on the ground. Smith still prefers to target his tight end, Travis
Kelce, and running back, Charcandrick West, more than most other
quarterbacks but has finally learned to use his wideouts as more
than just decoys.
Smith should keep his nice season going this week while facing
a Baltimore pass defense that has yielded big numbers more often
than not. On the season, the Ravens are allowing 248.8 passing
yards per game and have allowed 27 passing touchdowns with only
4 interceptions. Kansas City’s defense should control the
decimated Baltimore offense to the point that the Chiefs don’t
need to pile up the passing yards but the unit should be effective
on Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Losing Jamaal
Charles should have been a major blow to the Chiefs but a pair
of second-year practice squad level running backs has kept the
offense humming along. Both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware
have managed big fantasy games when carrying the full load. Ware’s
coming when West missed some time, but with Ware’s emergence
this has developed into a RBBC which has lessened the productivity
of each back. West is the better all-around back and has a more
similar in skill-set to Charles but Ware is a 230-pound hybrid
RB/FB that can grind out yards and wear down a defense but has
enough speed to break long runs as well. Ware left last week’s
game temporarily with a rib injury but was able to return and
may play this week but owners of both backs should be checking
for updates on the situation.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league
but the Ravens lack of time of possession is starting to take
its toll on the unit. The Ravens are allowing only 99.5 rushing
yards per game with six rushing scores on the season but those
numbers have been creeping up in recent weeks. In a game that
the Chiefs should control, expect a heavy dose of both West and
Ware.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Veteran Matt Schaub is expected to remain
the starter at quarterback when healthy, but Schaub was not healthy
enough to play last week and is not expected to be back this week.
That leaves the starting job to Jimmy Clausen, who threw for 274
yards and an interception last week, and the backup job to the
newly signed head case Ryan Mallett. The Ravens are down to starting
Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens as their top wide receivers due to
multiple injuries to their roster so even if Clausen was a good
quarterback there wouldn’t be much to excite fantasy owners
in this passing attack. Only Aiken and tight end Crockett Gillmore
have had any fantasy value and that value has be limited to deep
leagues. Aiken has been heavily targeted in recent weeks, but
hasn’t done much with those targets making him reliant on
volume alone. Gillmore suffered a back injury and is not likely
to play this week, and could be shut down for the rest of the
season. With most leagues in the semi-final stages of their playoffs,
it’s unlikely that you would be looking at this passing
attack when choosing a line-up.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has improved over the course of
the season and has been a ball-hawking unit with 18 interceptions.
Marcus Peters leads the way with 5 with no other player having
more than 2, which means that the takeaways can come from anywhere
in the defense. Jimmy Clausen should not pose much of a threat
to this talented secondary and it’s conceivable that the
Chiefs’ defense scores more than the Ravens’ offense
this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Buck Allen
rushed for 63 yards and caught 12 passes for 107 yards including
a 41-yard touchdown in his second start in place of the injured
Justin Forsett. The sledding was much tougher last week against
a stout Seattle defense, and Allen only gained 14 yards on the
ground and 44 yards through the air while also losing a fumble.
For those in PPR leagues it should be noted that Allen is seeing
a ton of targets from the below average Raven quarterbacks and
has 26 catches in his last four games. Former Brown and Titan,
Terrence West, has been worked into the offense and has looked
effective in a limited role, but Allen is the one that’s
looking like a potential future workhorse.
Expectations need to be lowered for the second consecutive week
however, as Allen will face another top 10 run defense. The Chiefs
are allowing 92.2 yards per game and only six rushing touchdowns
on the season. This matchup, of course, will not stop the Ravens
from feeding Allen as Claussen surely needs to be protected and
he should continue to see heavy targets once the Ravens inevitably
fall behind.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler had his best game in a while
last week in a losing effort to the Washington Redskins. Cutler
completed 19-of-31 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns and
he also lost a fumble on a strip sack. The mercurial Martellus
Bennett was placed on IR before the contest with what was thought
to be a minor injury amidst rumors of the coaching staff losing
patience with his antics. Veteran Zach Miller has stepped up in
his place and caught another touchdown pass last week. Miller
was thought to be a rising star a few years back while with the
Raiders before signing with Seattle and falling off the fantasy
map for years, but he’s remerged as a mid-range TE1 with
Bennett out of the picture. The Bears have run a very conservative
passing attack this season which has benefitted Cutler who had
become a turnover machine the last couple of the seasons to the
point the team had been better off when journeymen types Josh
McCown and Jimmy Clausen were under center. Alshon Jeffrey is
the star of this passing game and continues to put up big numbers
almost every week he’s been healthy. His size and speed
combo make him a difficult matchup and that combined with the
volume he sees makes him a great option and virtually matchup
proof.
The Vikings’ pass defense is a top 10 unit allowing 232.1
yards per game and 19 touchdown passes allowed and has fared even
better at home. The team has received outstanding play from corner
backs Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman and should be able to at
least slow down Jeffery. The Vikings are in the midst of wasting
a great start to the season but at home, against a mediocre opponent,
this is a game they must have.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
return from injury has lead to a backfield timeshare with rookie
Jeremy Langford who was very productive in Forte’s absence.
Outside of Week 13 when Forte had 26 touches against the 49ers,
this has been a true split which at times has been in favor of
the rookie. Forte has only 11 touches last week as compared to
14 by Langford and it was only a 7-yard touchdown run that saved
his fantasy owners. Forte and Langford have similar skill sets
so it isn’t even a case where each back has a defined role.
Forte realizes that he will not be back with the team next season,
but he’s still good enough and deserves enough respect that
the team will continue to use him while also further auditioning
Langford. Fantasy owners will need to weigh their options and
hope for a score when deciding on either back at this point.
The Vikings are allowing 114.4 rushing yards per game on the season
with 7 scores on the ground and will need to step up in order
to shut down this running game. The Vikings should be fully aware
that the Bears will be looking to run the ball down their throats
and will need to be up to that challenge in what should be a classic
slugfest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner has been
living off his reputation as an offensive guru for a good number
of years now. His results have said otherwise, however. Teddy
Bridgewater has not progressed in his second season, largely because
the team has not tailored the offense to his skill-set. The Vikings
great start to the season masked a lot of the issues in the passing
game, but a promising season is starting to fall apart. The Vikings
offensive line has been unable to protect Bridgewater in the pocket
while he waits for the downfield routes to be completed and he
has taken a beating most weeks. Through fourteen games Bridgewater
has just 9 touchdown passes with 8 interceptions and is averaging
fewer than 200 passing yards per game. The breakout of rookie
Stefon Diggs looked like it would get the passing game going,
but even he has faded over the last four to five weeks with no
one else has stepping up.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense
playing far better than anyone could have realistically expected
prior to the season. The pass defense is the second ranked unit
in the league, behind only Denver, allowing only 215.8 yards per
game. However, the Bears have allowed 22 touchdowns on the season,
but most were coming earlier in the season before the unit gelled
into what it has become. This is shaping up to be a low scoring
close game where any mistakes could sway momentum, so expect conservative
offenses built on the running game from both teams.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson
complained about his workload following a Week 13 loss to the
Seahawks where he gained only 18 yards on 8 carries and as usual
the squeaky wheel got greased the following week. Peterson however
only gained 69 yards on his 23 carries last week and slowed down
tremendously after an opening drive where he looked possessed.
The Vikings have built their offensive game plan around AP, so
volume shouldn’t be an issue most weeks so long as the team
does not fall behind early like they did against Seattle. Peterson
is still one of the very best runners in the league and his 1,457
total yards with 9 touchdowns has likely helped all of those that
snatched him up, in what turned out to be a first round minefield.
This should be another great week for his owners as the Bears
have been one of the league’s worst run defenses in 2015.
The Bears’ run defense is allowing 125.7 yards per game,
but with only 7 rushing touchdowns on the season. This should
be an old time NFC North battle for ground supremacy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Just when Brock Osweiler was starting to
build some momentum towards keeping the starting quarterback gig
for the rest of the season, he played poorly in a loss to the
Raiders last week. Osweiler was under constant pressure but did
his team no favors by holding onto the ball for too long while
absorbing five sacks including one where he fumbled the ball away
in the endzone. With Manning set to return soon, Osweiler will
get another chance to show that the team is better off with him
under center than Manning who is still leading the league in interceptions
with 17 despite playing in only 9 games. The team did not score
an offensive touchdown last week, but Osweiler has shown an ability
to move the offense in his other starts and is the better fit
for the offense that Gary Kubiak wants to run.
The young Steelers’ secondary started the season a little
better than advertised, but they have been lit up in recent weeks
to the extent that only the New York Giants are giving up more
passing yards per game. Pittsburgh is allowing 279 yards per game
and has yielded 25 passing touchdowns to their opposition. This
should be a game that allows the former Sun Devil to get back
on track.
Running Game Thoughts: The Denver running game gained some traction
after Manning was replaced by the stronger armed Osweiler which
made defenses respect the deep pass. The problem for fantasy owners
has been that Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson have been thrust
into a RBBC and each have had their share of ups and downs based
on usage. Anderson was active last week but did not play while
nursing a sore ankle. Hillman struggled, as he has for the last
couple of weeks, which likely has Kubiak hoping that Anderson
used last week’s “bye” to heal up and get back
on track. The Denver o-line hasn’t performed well all season,
but if Osweiler can attack the Steelers overmatched secondary
downfield, the Broncos just may be able to run the ball.
On “paper” this matchup looks unfavorable, as the
Steelers possess a strong run defense. The team is allowing only
88.3 yards per game and has given up only 4 rushing touchdowns
all season. The Broncos will need to try and get their running
game early, but in all likelihood this game will fall on their
young quarterback’s shoulders.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger once again struggled
against the Bengals, throwing for 282 yards without a touchdown
and with an interception. In fairness, Big Ben did complete 30-of-39
passes and led his team to 33 points and an easy win, so it was
a far better NFL day than a fantasy day. In his previous four
weeks, Big Ben threw for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns combined
so the passing offense was clicking prior to last week. However,
the team will run into and even tougher defense this week when
Denver comes to Heinz Field. Antonio Brown should see Aquib Talib
a good bit on Sunday but has shown in the past that he can get
the job done even against the toughest of corners.
Denver does however have the best pass defense in the league
allowing only 188 yards per game. They also have the top pass
rush in the game which could spell trouble for Roethlisberger
behind a line that has yielded 26 sacks on the season. The Broncos
have given up just two touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams continues to defy Father
Time. Last week he only gained 76 yards on 23 carries but scored
twice. Williams looks as quick and agile as he has at any time
during his career and is gaining yards in chunks. He has 773 yards
and 8 scores on the ground on 164 carries. He’s arguably
the team’s MVP as he has kept the offense going during Le’Veon
Bell’s suspension and injury. The Steelers will need for
him to squeeze at least three more games out of his 32-year-old
legs as they fight for one of two wildcard spots.
Williams will face his second consecutive team that has been
very strong against the run after running against the Bengals
last week. The Broncos have limited the opposition to 84.3 yards
per game this season with only 8 rushing touchdowns allowed. The
Steelers will need to find a way to move the ball against a team
that does not give up many yards through the air or on the ground.
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