Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has been medically cleared
from his concussion, but could sit another week as a result of
a separated shoulder he also suffered in Week 10. Neither Bradford
nor backup Mark Sanchez are aware who will be under center on
Thanksgiving Day and head coach Chip Kelly nor offensive coordinator
Pat Schumer have tipped their hand to the media. While the offense
moves quicker and more efficiently under Sanchez, Bradford was
starting to look comfortable before succumbing to injury and likely
gives the team the better chance to win. Sanchez has looked good
at times, but just like during his tenure in New York, his costly
mistakes make it difficult for his team to trust him long term.
The passing attack has not worked as well as it has under Chip
Kelly’s first two seasons in the league.
Bradford has also made some bad decisions, turning the ball over
in the redzone far too often and his below average pass catchers
have not helped matters. Jordan Matthews was expected to be a
breakout candidate but has failed to deliver on his successful
rookie season, struggling as the team’s top option. At this
point in the season, fantasy owners would need to be desperate
to use any members of this passing game.
The Lions defense struggled for most of the season, but shut down
two hot quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Derrek Carr the last
two weeks. The Lions have allowed 265.8 passing yards per game
and 1.6 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. Darius Slay
has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league over the last
five weeks, but got banged up last week. It will be interesting
to see if he moves inside to cover Jordan Matthews (something
he typically doesn’t do) with the underwhelming Riley Cooper
and Josh Huff playing on the outside. The Lions’ pass rush
should be able to put pressure on either Eagles’ quarterback
behind an offensive line that has played extremely poorly in 2015
and both quarterbacks have shown a penchant towards turning the
ball over. This could end up being an ugly game.
Running Game Thoughts: With Ryan Mathews missing last week’s
game and expected to sit out again, DeMarco Murray should continue
to see a heavy workload. Murray has not fit in well with the Eagles
offensive scheme that asks him to run out of shotgun formations
and to run far too many sweeps. His dedication and effort was
questioned this week by an unnamed teammate that took umbrage
with the big back sliding to the ground instead of taking on a
much smaller defensive back in his way during last week’s
game. This is the type of season that it’s been in Philadelphia.
The Eagles are averaging only 119.2 yards per game on the ground
but have scored 10 rushing touchdowns. Darren Sproles should see
another bump in his usage with Mathews out again and the veteran
is still productive in the passing game. Sproles turned a screen
pass into a nice touchdown run and finished the game with 59 total
yards last week with Mathews out.
The Lions’ run defense has been very poor during the course
of the 2015 season which could work to the Eagles’ advantage.
The team is now allowing 128.5 yards per game on the ground and
has yielded a league worst 15 rushing touchdowns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The switch in offensive coordinators from
Joe Lombardi to Jim Bob Cooter has not had earth shattering results,
While Matt Stafford has arguably played better since the move
was made, the Lions passing attack has still not been overly productive.
Last week Stafford did not throw a touchdown pass, although he
did run for one. Calvin Johnson sprained an ankle in Week 8 and
has played through it but has only managed a relatively pedestrian
11 catches for 169 yards over the last two weeks. Johnson, who
turned 30 in September could be starting on the downswing of his
career as he has yet to really dominate a game all season outside
of Week 6 where he totaled 166 yards and one of his three scores
on the season. Head Coach Jim Caldwell has stated a need to get
Eric Ebron, who went catchless last week back involved in the
offense. The second-year tight end started the season strongly
but has faded in recent weeks with numerous drops on his resume.
The Eagles allowed rookie Jameis Winston to throw 5 touchdowns
against them last week as he picked apart what looked like an
overmatched secondary. Prized offseason acquisition cornerback
Byron Maxwell who started the season slowly, started coming around
before once again regressing back to early season form in recent
weeks. On the season the unit is allowing 245.9 passing yards
per game and after last week, 20 passing touchdowns against.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have been the worst rushing offense
in the league this season, averaging only 71 yards per game on
the ground. At this point, it’s hardly worth writing about
the Detroit running game in a column for a fantasy football website
as no owner could feel comfortable starting Ameer Abdullah or
Joique Bell unless they had no other choices. The offensive line
play has been poor thus far and counting on a Lions running back
seems like a dangerous proposition. I have three words for anyone
thinking about starting one: Don’t do it. That was technically
two words and a contraction, but you get the point.
At least the matchup will be attractive, as the Eagles are coming
off a game where the Buccaneers ran for over 250 yards against
them. On the season they currently sit as the 28th ranked run
defense allowing 128.5 rushing yards per game. Even with an attractive
matchup like this, I still could not recommend a Lions back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Is there a hotter QB in the NFL than Cam
Newton right now? Fresh off undoubtedly his best game of the season
and quite possibly his best game as a professional, Newton is
leading an undefeated team and is right up there with Tom Brady
and Carson Palmer in MVP talk. Newton threw 5 TDs last week and
didn’t turn the ball over for just the third time this season.
He now has thrown for 20 scores, four away from his career high
and we still have six games remaining. This is a special year
for Newton and he’s doing it with Ted Ginn as his number
one receiver…for now. It is my belief (and the belief of
many) that both Newton and Ron Rivera would like that primary
target to become Devin Funchess. The 21-year-old rookie out of
Michigan got off to an incredibly rough start this season, but
has been rapidly improving the past couple weeks and could be
emerging as a key cog in this offense down the stretch. Funchess
has scores in two of his last three games and taken full advantage
of the injury to Philly Brown.
The Cowboys have actually been a top 10 unit against the pass.
They’ve allowed 231.1 passing yards per game and only 11
scores through the air. Outside receivers have often struggled
against the Cowboys so this isn’t as juicy of a matchup
as one may think. The Cowboys shut down Ryan Tannehill last week
(not that difficult – I know) and while obviously Newton
is far more talented than Tannehill, the Cowboys will not make
it easy for him. Regardless, he’s locked in as a top 5 option,
but no one other than Newton and Greg Olsen is a must start on
this Panthers passing offense.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart is having the quietest
RB1 season I can remember. He did a whole lot of nothing early
in the year, but has really come on as of late, scoring five touchdowns
in his last six games and breaking the 100-yard rushing mark twice.
Even though he caught a touchdown last week, he still brings almost
nothing to the table in the passing game and comes out more often
than one would like at the goal line. Helping his cause is a Cowboys
defense that struggled mightily last week with Lamar Miller, but
was bailed out by the fact that the Dolphins only gave him seven
carries. JStew is a lock for 15-plus carries, which is probably
being conservative considering he’s gone over 20 carries
for six consecutive games. The Cowboys are allowing 104.7 rushing
yards against per game and have allowed 10 rushing scores. While
Newton is always a threat to poach rushing numbers, Stewart is
a top 12 option and a must start on Thanksgiving.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One down, six to go. The Cowboys still have
a long road ahead if they want to contend for the division, but
without a win this week against the undefeated Panthers, it will
be over before it really gets going. Tony Romo made his triumphant
return to action last week and unsurprisingly led the Cowboys
to victory. He was his usual elusive self in the pocket, extending
plays and avoiding sacks, but also displayed considerable rust
on his throws early in the game. He still had a solid outing,
completing 18-of-28 for 227 yards and 2 TDs. He did throw two
interceptions, but one was a miscommunication with Dez Bryant,
which can be chalked up to the fact that the two had previously
been on the field for about half a game together and the other
was just an overthrow on a dump off over the middle. Romo should
look much better now that he’s got a game under his belt,
but the Panthers pose a tough challenge in their elite defensive
unit.
They allow just 228.3 passing yards per game and are one of just
two teams (Denver) to have forced more interceptions than touchdowns
allowed. The biggest matchup of the week is between Dez Bryant
and arguably the league’s top shut down corner, Josh Norman.
The Cowboys will look to move Bryant around the offensive formation
to avoid Norman, but he will still be running the majority of
his routes from the outside and that’s where Norman lives.
You don’t sit Dez Bryant, but expectations should be tempered
in a game where Romo might look for Terrance Williams or Jason
Witten a little more than usual.
Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden was “limited”
last week…allegedly. I didn’t notice. McFadden carried
the ball 29 times for 129 yards and was the clear workhorse after
talks of Robert Turbin cutting into his usage proved unsubstantiated.
With the Panthers an elite unit defending the pass and the Cowboys
always looking to control time of possession, DMC is in store
for another heavy workload after reporting no setbacks following
last week’s game. The Panthers are no slouches against the
run, either. They have only allowed one back to eclipse 100 yards
against them (Doug Martin Week 4). In fact, that was the only
game this season where the Panthers didn’t have the leading
rusher in the contest. Despite allowing 94.5 rushing yards per
game and a mere 3.9 yards per carry, McFadden has as good of a
chance as anyone to be just the second back to lead a Panthers
game in rushing due primarily to his volume, which is also what
keeps DMC firmly in the RB1 conversation.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler struggled against a tough Broncos’
defense with a depleted receiving corps in Week 11. He did not
throw a touchdown pass and was picked off and lost a fumble in
a close loss. The Bears were missing starting wide receivers Alshon
Jeffery, Eddie Royal and starting running back Matt Forte while
starting tight end Martellus Bennett was slowed with a hip injury.
This was Cutler’s first game without a touchdown pass in
a season where the much maligned QB has resurrected his career
somewhat under head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam
Gase. Jeffrey has missed five games already this season with various
ailments and is currently nursing shoulder and groin injuries.
When he’s played, he’s done well and is Cutler’s
go to guy, but he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy
in a contract year. The latest news makes it seem doubtful that
he’ll be in the line-up on Thursday and with TE Martellus
Bennett ruled out, Cutler will be playing with a short deck again.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 254.6 yards per game
with 13 touchdowns against in 2015 making this an above average
matchup for the Bears’ passing attack. The Bears are likely
heading into this game looking to run the ball and control the
clock, but if the Packers offense gets back on track that may
not be realistic. The Packers have 29 sacks and 11 interceptions
on the season so if the Bears do fall behind and need to abandon
the run in order to play catch-up, things could get ugly for a
quarterback that has cut down on his turnovers but hasn’t
exactly eliminated them altogether.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
has missed the last three games which has allowed rookie Jeremy
Langford to showcase himself and the former Spartan has shown
very well. Langford totaled 324 yards and 3 touchdowns in his
first two games in place of the injured Forte, but against a tough
Broncos’ run defense he wasn’t nearly as effective.
Langford finished with only 42 total yards and a late touchdown
which would have tied the game had he not failed to cross the
goal-line on the two point conversion. Forte should be healthy
enough to return this week and should certainly get his starting
role back but Langford has earned playing time at the veteran’s
expense. It could be as close to a 60-40 split in favor of Forte
going forward, which will come as a blow to a veteran used to
seeing as high as 80 percent of the work. Fantasy owners are not
likely to be very happy but the Bears offense should be much better
off with two good backs in the mix.
The Packers are a below average run defense, allowing 114 yards
per game and 9 rushing touchdowns on the season, but they are
coming off a game where they managed to hold Adrian Peterson in
check. Ideally, the Bears will be looking to exploit their advantage
and run the ball but the Packers will be expecting it just like
they were last week. It just may be time for the Packers to get
their momentum rolling back in the “right” direction.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers must still be “trying
too hard”, as he once again struggled last week albeit this
time in victory at least. Rodgers threw for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns
and completed only 47 percent of his passes against the Vikings.
He showed flashes of his greatness, notably on a 27-yard touchdown
strike to James Jones, but overall he was not on his game. If
there is a physical ailment, the Packers have contained it well,
but it seems more of a psychological issue as Rodgers looks like
a guy that doesn’t trust in his abilities. Randall Cobb
has also struggled this season, earlier perhaps due to a shoulder
injury but it could also be the extra attention that has come
his way without Jordy Nelson. Davante Adams was also banged up
for much of the season and hasn’t been enough of a presence
to get the offense back on track since his return two weeks ago.
Rodgers is too good for anyone to think this passing attack will
not get turned back around, but the longer the struggles continue
the less confidence fantasy owners will have.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense
playing better than anyone could have realistically expected prior
to the season. Their pass defense is the fourth ranked unit in
the league allowing only 217.2 yards per game. However, the Bears
have allowed 19 passing touchdowns on the season. A team with
a lack of pass rush and an inability to create turnovers like
the Bears could be just the opposition that gives Rodgers the
sense of confidence he needs to get back into a groove.
Running Game Thoughts: It looks
like Eddie Lacy found some motivation after being benched for
veteran James Starks. Lacy rushed for 100 yards on 22 carries
last week, and looked as good as he has all season after struggling
mightily in recent weeks. Lacy showed great vision and ran with
the power that made him a force to be reckoned with during his
first two NFL seasons. It seems likely that he should be the lead
back once again Thursday night even if Starks is given the ceremonial
start. Starks is a fine back in his own right, but is limited
compared to the far more powerful and dynamic Lacy.
Lacy gets a chance to get his season turned back around as the
Bears have been one of the league’s worst run defenses in
2015 allowing 123.7 yards per game on the ground. They have however
allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns on the season, a number predicted
to rise by Black Friday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Case Keenum did not provide the spark to
the Rams’ passing offense that Jeff Fisher hoped for after
benching Nick Foles. Keenum completed only 12 of his 26 attempts
for 136 yards last week although he did find a wide open tight
end Lance Kendricks for a touchdown. However, the only talking
point coming out of his appearance was the controversy surrounding
him being left in the game despite an obvious concussion. He’s
expected to be cleared prior to Week 12, but his performance was
so poor that Foles could be thrust back into the line-up. It likely
doesn’t matter which quarterback ends up under center as
neither have passed for more than 200 yards since Week 1 and outside
of perhaps Tavon Austin there is no one is this passing game that
should be anywhere near a fantasy lineup.
The Bengals’ defense is allowing 242.8 passing yards per
game while giving up 15 passing touchdowns and grabbing 11 interceptions
on the season. This aggressive unit should have a relatively easy
week and should likely focus their efforts on stopping Todd Gurley.
Running Game Thoughts: Gurley “struggled”
for the first time since he’s been handed significant carries
against a tough Ravens run defense last week. He gained only 66
yards and scored a touchdown on 25 carries. The problem facing
Gurley is that the Rams offensive line is subpar and teams have
determined that they can stack the box to stop the Rams, with
no other offensive players to worry about. He is already arguably
the best running back in the league and will be the focal part
of this offense, and has proven to be talented enough to find
success despite all of the defensive attention. This week should
be no different.
While Gurley will likely find a way to be productive, expectations
should be tempered against a Bengals team that has been very strong
against the run. The Bengals have limited the opposition to 100.4
yards per game this season with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Rams will have no choice but to feed their best player on
Sunday even if he does start slowly.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton is now saddled with having to
turn his team’s fortunes around after the Bengals lost their
second consecutive game last week. Dalton finished strong in bringing
his team back from a deficit, finishing the game with 315 yards
and 2 touchdown passes. Both of his touchdown throws went to tight
end Tyler Eifert who now has 11 touchdown receptions in 10 games.
Eifert has excelled as a red zone target but needs to get worked
into the overall passing game a little more as his size and speed
make him a matchup problem. A.J. Green was held mostly in check
by Patrick Peterson last week but is still one of the more dangerous
wide receivers in the league and should get back on track this
week. Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones both help keep the chains
moving for one of the best and deepest offenses in the league.
For the third straight week the Bengals will face stiff competition,
with this week the Rams’ top 5 defense coming to the Jungle.
The Rams are allowing 229.4 passing yards per game and have only
given up 9 touchdown passes. Expect the Bengals’s weapons
to test this tough pass defense.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals
have been a pure RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard and
both have been mostly effective in their roles. Bernard has continued
to look like the more explosive and effective back while Hill
shasn’t looked anything like he did as a rookie, but is
having success in the red-zone. Hill has looked far more sluggish
and indecisive this season and is averaging below 4 yards per
carry. Bernard meanwhile is averaging an impressive 5.4 yards
per carry and has chipped in with 34 receptions for 326 yards.
The Bengals however seem content to limit his carries and keep
him fresh.
The Rams have been a tough run defense allowing 108.1 yards per
game and only 6 scores on the ground. The Bengals balanced offense
will need to find some success early if they hope to halt the
team’s two game skid.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what is already a lost season for the
Ravens, the team will now also be dealing with the loss of their
starting quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco tore his ACL and MCL during
last week’s game against the Rams so the team will now have
to turn to veteran washout Matt Schaub at quarterback. Schaub
had some success earlier in his career with the Texans, but has
since floundered into a turnover machine and is more known for
throwing pick-sixes than touchdown passes. The Ravens were already
down to starting Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens as their top wide
receivers due to multiple injuries, and while Flacco managed to
make them mildly fantasy relevant, all of that is out the window
with Schaub under center. Luckily for most fantasy owners with
bye weeks now over, starting any Ravens pass catcher is likely
unnecessary.
If you need to take the risk, the Ravens passing attack is in
a good spot as the Browns will be fielding the 26th ranked pass
defense, which is allowing 268.5 yards per game and has given
up 21 TDs through the air with only 6 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens
injury woes are not limited to the passing game. Veteran running
back Justin Forsett was also lost for the season with a broken
arm. His rookie backup, Buck Allen, has looked good in his limited
carries and will now get a chance to show he can handle the lead
back role in 2016. Allen runs with power and has great balance
and should be able to keep the chains moving. Allen rushed for
67 yards on 22 carries last week in relief of Forsett and has
249 yards on the season. The Ravens will surely be leaning on
the run game with Schaub under center making Allen and intriguing
option for fantasy owners.
Allen gets a soft landing spot for his first start with the bottom
ranked Browns’ run defense being the opposition. The Browns’
defense is allowing a league worst 138.8 yards per game, at 4.6
yards per carry, and has yielded 9 rushing touchdowns. If Schaub
can play respectable enough to earn any attention at all from
the Browns’ defense, Allen is in line for a big game this
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head Coach Mike Pettine had announced during
the team’s bye week that Johnny Manziel would start over
Josh McCown for the rest of the season. Manziel was coming off
his best game of the season and it was only logical that the team
would want to see what they have in the young signal caller before
they must make a decision on their future at the position. But
it being the Browns, their best laid plans went astray. Video
of Manziel partying showed up on social media despite warnings
from the team to lay low during the bye week, and Pettine immediately
announced Johnny Football would be heading back to the bench.
Gary Barnidge owners rejoiced. Barnidge at 6’6” and
250 pounds was a redzone monster for McCown early in the season
and should continue to flourish with McCown back under center.
McCown who never really deserved to be benched in the first place
gets another chance to keep his late career surge going and perhaps
earning another chance to be a bridge starter for the team next
season after they inevitably draft their next future franchise
quarterback.
McCown should look forward to facing a Baltimore pass defense
that has yielded big numbers more often than not this season and
no longer has anything to play for. On the season the Ravens are
allowing 257 passing yards per game and have allowed 19 passing
touchdowns with only 4 interceptions in 10 games. This should
be a favorable matchup on paper.
Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland
running game rotation became a little clearer after Robert Turbin
was released but it was still just as ineffective as it’s
been all season. Isaiah Crowell sees much of the heavy lifting
with rookie Duke Johnson being mixed in and handling most of the
passing game work. Head Coach Mike Pettine has expressed a desire
to get the rookie Johnson more involved, but so far that hasn’t
really materialized. In the Browns’ last game against Pittsburgh
Crowell rushed six times for -5 yards. He’s averaging a
poor 3.1 yards per carry on the season. His poor performance could
open the door for Glenn Winston who was activated from the PUP
list prior to Week 10 and is said to have “shown a lot of
the practice field”. Something has to change whether that’s
getting the rookie more involved as a runner or turning to the
second year UDFA Winston to see what he has.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league
so it’s not likely that the Browns’ running game misfortunes
get turned around this week. The Ravens are allowing only 97 rushing
yards per game with 6 rushing scores on the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Dan Campbell honeymoon is clearly over.
The Dolphins have fallen to the bottom of the AFC East and their
franchise QB has been “just a guy.” Ryan Tannehill
was supposed to continue his evolution as a passer this season
after an impressive 2014 campaign. Instead, he has regressed.
It is unclear if a large portion of the blame should go to the
front office and coaching staff as this appears to be a team without
an identity. They don’t want to pound the ball on the ground,
but they don’t want to unleash Tannehill either. That leaves
Tannehill and this entire offense stuck in limbo. Tannehill threw
just 24 passes last week, completing a season low 13 for also
a season low 188 yards. He was victimized by a few drops, but
on the TD he threw to Roland McClain (not a Dolphin), he has no
one to blame but himself.
The Cowboys shut down Rishard Matthews as I feared might happen,
but at least Jarvis Landry had a competent day with 4 catches
for 66 yards. He’s failed to top 50 yards just twice all
season and remains a reliable WR2 even against a Jets defense
responsible for his worst game in 2015. The Jets held Landry to
just 40 yards on 4 catches in Week 4 and although they struggled
last week with DeAndre Hopkins, the Jets remain one of the league’s
best units defensively. They are responsible for Tannehill’s
other sub 200-yard passing day. Allowing just 231.4 passing yards
per game and a league best 56.2 completion percentage against,
even without Darrelle Revis, Tannehill should be nowhere near
starting lineups in the first week since Week 3 with no byes.
Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins were never really out of
last week’s game until well into the 4th quarter. That’s
what makes their play calling and offensive philosophy so baffling.
Despite averaging 6.3 yards per carry, Lamar Miller saw just 7
carries. Naturally, that must mean impressive rookie Jay Ajayi
cut into Miller’s workload. Nope. Ajayi had just 4 carries
himself. Last week, Miller was also a nonfactor in the passing
game, leading to his worst fantasy output of the Dan Campbell
era. Looking back on the last time the Dolphins played the Jets,
it is difficult to give any heavy weight to player performances
as that game was the final one with Joe Philbin calling the shots.
However, I would be remiss to fail to mention that it was easily
Miller’s worst game of the season as he took just 7 carries
for 26 yards and caught just 1 pass for 10 yards. There are obvious
differences between then and now, though. Philbin is gone. Campbell
is in. Ajayi is active. The Jets are allowing 3.8 yards per carry
to opposing RBs and a third best 91.6 yards per game. They have
allowed a mere two rushing TDs against all season. Miller remains
a high end RB2 due to the overall unreliability of the position
this year, but this is as poor of a matchup as they come for running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to play with his
newly repaired, heavily wrapped left thumb last week, but was
stymied by the Texans rapidly improving defense. Fitzpatrick completed
less than half his throws for 216 yards while tossing (and rushing)
for 1 TD, but throwing 2 INTs. Whenever you are thoroughly outplayed
by T.J. Yates, you are having a bad day. Fitzpatrick’s struggles
aside, he remained committed to relentlessly targeting Brandon
Marshall and Eric Decker. The two combined for 21 targets, but
were highly inefficient, catching just 9 between them with the
lone TD going to Marshall. Decker failed to score for just the
second time this season, but did top 80 yards, which he has done
in both of his scoreless games.
When these teams last played, Marshall had his highest receiving
total of the season with 128 yards and Decker found the end zone.
The Dolphins allowed receiving TDs to both Dez Bryant and Terrance
Williams last week and have now allowed 19 receiving TDs on the
season. Marshall is a WR1 and Decker a high end WR2 in an above
average matchup against a Jets team on the precipice of freefall.
Running Game Thoughts: On the topic of season highs, Chris Ivory
also had his best rushing total of the season against the Dolphins
when he took his season high in carries (29) for his season high
in yards (166). An interesting note from that game - it is the
only one where Ivory failed to record a reception. Ivory averaged
a respectable 4.5 yards per carry last week against the Texans,
yet he was handed the ball just 8 times. The Jets were in catch
up mode for much of the second half, but Ivory playing just 17
snaps is unacceptable. Bilal Powell was heavily involved in the
passing game, seeing 7 targets and catching 5-for-67 yards. He
also had 4 carries for 22 yards. Stevan Ridley looked like Andre
Williams out there, taking a combined 5 touches for negative 5
yards.
The Dolphins just allowed Darren McFadden and Robert Turbin to
combine for 164 yards rushing. They are a bottom five unit when
it comes to stopping the run, allowing 138.6 yards per game and
4.3 yards per carry. The Jets’ once promising season is
quickly slipping away. Look for them to return to what works and
pound Ivory in this extremely favorable matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Giants have had two long weeks to dwell
on their crushing loss to the Patriots, which was the second time
they’ve lost by the exact score of 27-26 this season. The
Giants should be fired up coming out of the bye as they travel
to Washington to face a Redskins team that was just embarrassed
by the Panthers. Cam Newton eviscerated the Redskins pass defense,
throwing for 246 yards and 5 touchdowns. Newton’s passing
success bodes well for Eli Manning this week. Manning has been
a QB1 in all non-divisional matchups. While he’s struggled
within the division, his lone quality performance came against
these Redskins back in Week 3, where he threw for 279 yards, 2
TDs, and 0 INTs. Manning has thrown for multiple touchdowns in
all but three games. Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle both had
strong games when these teams last met and both found the end
zone.
The Redskins are in the midst of a brutal stretch of opposing
QBs. Since their bye, they’ve faced Tom Brady, Drew Brees,
and Cam Newton. Their next two opposing QBs are Eli Manning and
Tony Romo Matt Cassel. While the Redskins are only allowing
234.1 passing yards per game, they have allowed 20 passing touchdowns
and have particularly struggled with better QBs (no surprise there).
With the Giants well rested and the Redskins’ season beginning
to slip away, the Giants passing attack is as good of a bet as
any this week.
Running Game Thoughts: We didn’t have to care about the
Giants running game last week since the team did not play, but
that really wasn’t a change from when they do play. The
Giants rushing attack has been irrelevant for almost the entire
season and remains so this week. Rashad Jennings hasn’t
topped 13 carries or 63 yards all season and hasn’t run
for a touchdown since Week 1. My thoughts on Andre Williams are
well documented by now in that I think he’s the worst running
back to get any relevant playing time in the NFL. Shane Vereen
remains unpredictable, which unfortunately renders him completely
unreliable. At this point in the fantasy season, if you are concerned
about Shane Vereen, you are probably looking to avoid bottom of
the standings penalties. Vereen leads the Giants backfield in
touchdowns with three on the season (all through the air), but
it has been impossible to predict what weeks he will be relevant.
In their previous matchup against the Redskins, Vereen handled
six carries for 23 yards and was nowhere to be seen in the passing
game. The Redskins have been deplorable against the run, but none
of the Giants backs are talented enough to exploit it. Sure, it’s
possible one of them can break off a big run, but you’re
not starting any running back where the only hope for production
is a big play. Avoid them all.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As expected, one week after torching one
of the worst defenses we’ve ever seen (Saints), Cousins
came crashing down to Earth against one of the league’s
best defenses. Cousins was efficient in completing 22 of his 30
passes, but he threw for just 207 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT against
Carolina. The biggest positive from last week’s beat down
was DeSean Jackson torching a secondary for his first touchdown
of the season. He has been looking healthier by the week and appears
to be returning to being the top option on this offense. Jackson
is never truly reliable on a weekly basis, but you knew that when
you drafted him. He will be a WR1 or a WR4. Guessing when he will
hit the WR1 mark is a fool’s errand. I guess I will be the
fool this week. DJax loves to troll the Giants and was probably
very upset he missed the opportunity earlier this season. Now
at home and healthy, if the Redskins are good for nothing else
this week, I think Jackson has a big game, especially with Jordan
Reed apparently nursing yet another injury (he will likely play
through his sprained MCL, but obviously will be at less than 100%).
The return of Prince Amukamara does concern me a bit, but I’d
like to think he’ll need a game or two to get back into
the swing of things. The Giants are the only team in the league
allowing over 300 yards passing per game (309.9), which helps
explain the 39 passes of 20-plus yards they have allowed. Surprisingly,
they’ve been quite adept at forcing interceptions (14 on
the year and one behind Carolina for best in the league) despite
their inability to get to the quarterback, having recorded only
12 sacks this season. The Captain will have every opportunity
to light it up this week, and while he did eclipse 300 yards passing
in their previous encounter, he threw just one touchdown against
two interceptions. The Giants have won five straight against the
Redskins with the last four coming by double digits. Although
it’s a favorable matchup for everyone, Jackson and Reed
are the only Redskins worth starting this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game is certainly the
worst in the league, but the Redskins certainly give them a run
for their money. Sometimes words cannot describe how bad something
is. In this case, they can. Alfred Morris handled two carries
and totaled zero yards. Matt Jones handled five carries and totaled
zero yards. He also fumbled…again. Chris Thompson handled
four carries and totaled ten yards. The only reason the Redskins
running game isn’t as bad as the Giants is because at least
Matt Jones has had isolated huge performances. He has shown he
is capable. The problem is it is impossible to trust him because
his floor is so low. Jones led this backfield in carries when
these teams met previously, but, of course, he fumbled. I remember
that fumble particularly well. It was an off tackle carry that
was an easy touchdown if Jones didn’t have the ball punched
out right before the goal line for a touchback. Chris Thompson
dominated snaps from that point forward. The Giants are a far
cry from the team that fluked its way to the league’s top
rushing defense early in the season, but the Redskins aren’t
the team to exploit it. Avoid every running back in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Raiders’ passing game has had
a number of pleasant surprises for fantasy owners, with Derek
Carr among the top-10 quarterbacks in scoring, and Michael Crabtree
and Amari Cooper each ranking in the top-20 in scoring at wideout.
Unfortunately, the trio was a collective bust last week against
Detroit, though one has to believe that Cooper won’t repeat
his dismal four-yard performance, and each is at least a decent
play this week against Tennessee.
The Titans have some contrasting numbers against the pass, making
them a bit difficult to figure out. They are third in the league
in pass defense, 15th in touchdown throws surrendered, third in
sacks, and 11th in interceptions, but are 28th in yards per pass
attempt allowed. The Titans rank 16th in fantasy points given
up to quarterbacks and have allowed the 13th-fewest points to
wideouts, but have also given up sixth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Latavius
Murray was a hot name going into fantasy drafts despite a limited
body of work, and he has not disappointed. He is currently seventh
in the league with 706 rushing yards and 10th at his position
in fantasy scoring. Murray is now an every-week fantasy starter,
and should be thought of as a RB2 this week against the Titans.
Tennessee is tied for 17th in the NFL in run defense, and is 13th
in yards per carry allowed, but is 23rd in rushing scores permitted.
They have also held backs to the fewest receiving yards in the
league and have not allowed a player at that position to catch
a touchdown, which has limited the number of fantasy points they’ve
allowed to runners, and is a big reason why they have given up
the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota continues to be up and down
as a passer, having thrown four touchdown passes in a game on
two occasions, but failing to toss a score in three others, including
his last two. The rookie doesn’t have many weapons at his
disposal, and even with Kendall Wright (knee) likely to play this
week, the only legit fantasy option coming from the Titans’
passing game is tight end Delanie Walker, who had over 100 receiving
yards last week and is a TE1 this week against a Raiders team
that has been dreadful versus opposing tight ends this season.
Only two teams have allowed more passing yards than Oakland this
year, but they rank 11th in touchdown passes given up and are
15th in yards per attempt allowed, sacks, and interceptions. The
Raiders are in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed
to wideouts, but have permitted the seventh-most points to quarterbacks
and the fourth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Antonio Andrews
racked up 78 yards last week against the Jaguars, and is Tennessee’s
leading rusher, but far from a guy fantasy owners can consistently
have much faith in. Andrews is averaging fewer than 4.0 yards
per carry and has gone six consecutive games without a touchdown,
but thinking of him as a flex play this week is realistic based
on his match-up against Oakland. Dexter McCluster suffered a sprained
knee in Week 11 and will miss this game meaning more work for
David Cobb and expect Bishop Sankey to be at least active on Sunday.
The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in run defense, and 26th in yards
per carry allowed, but are 13th in rushing scores ceded. They
were actually having a decent enough season against backs until
Weeks 9 and 10, when DeAngelo Williams and Adrian Peterson combined
to run for 373 yards and three touchdowns against them. Those
two contests, and the fact that Oakland has permitted the seventh-most
receiving yards in the league to running backs, are large parts
of why the team has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to players
at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston recorded his best day as
a pro last week against the Eagles, throwing five touchdowns to
five different receivers in Tampa’s win. He had gone two
games without throwing a touchdown before the dynamic output and
has jumped ahead of the likes of Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson
in fantasy scoring. One of Winston’s scoring passes went
to Mike Evans, and though it was only Evans’ second touchdown
of the year, he has been consistently racking up yards, and is
one of the better fantasy options this week among receivers due
to his match-up with Indianapolis. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
continues to practice on a limited basis but has yet to be cleared
for contact. There were rumors last week that he would be available
in Week 12, but his status remains in limbo.
The good news for the Colts’ pass defense is that they rank
fifth in the NFL in interceptions. The bad news? Pretty much everything
else. They’ve given up the fourth-most passing yards, are
23rd in touchdown throws surrendered, and 30th in sacks. Indy
has ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the seventh-most
points to wide receivers, and the 13th-most points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
ran wild last week against the Eagles, amassing 235 rushing yards
after a fairly stagnant previous three weeks. The only issue concerning
Martin is his lack of touchdowns, as he has gone four straight
games without a score. Nonetheless, he has to be considered a
fantasy starter this week against a Colts team who has had issues
stopping the run. Charles Sims remains a factor in the running
game notching 13 touches last week gaining 69 yards and 1 score.
Indianapolis is 21st in the league in run defense, 23rd in rushing
scores given up, and 15th in yards per carry allowed. They have
been better in their last couple of games (though it helped that
Devonta Freeman was knocked out early last week), but have still
permitted the ninth-most fantasy points in the league to running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colts beat the Falcons last week with
Matt Hasselbeck under center, though there was nothing for fantasy
owners to get excited about. Each of Hasselbeck’s touchdown
throws went to reserve running back Ahmad Bradshaw, T.Y. Hilton
had just 21 yards, and Donte Moncrief picked up only 41. Normally,
Hasselbeck’s status as the Colts’ starter would be
a signal for fantasy owners to take a pass on the team’s
receivers, but the Buccaneers have given up multitudes of passing
scores, making Hilton and Moncrief viable plays this week.
Tampa Bay is 13th in the league against the pass, but only the
Saints have given up more passing scores. The Bucs have average
numbers in most other pass defense statistics including fantasy
points surrendered to tight ends, but have allowed the 10th-most
points to quarterbacks and 13th-most points to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
is a bit banged up with a knee malady, but he still managed to
come away with 80 total yards last week against the Falcons. The
veteran has been a RB2/Flex option each week, and this week is
no different, though fantasy owners should veer more towards the
flex side as Gore takes on a decent Tampa rush defense. Ahmad
Bradshaw got more of the workload (13 touches) last week with
Gore nicked up so keep your eye on their usage rates moving forward.
Dan Herron has been re-signed and will serve as the No.3 running
back.
The Buccaneers have the NFL’s 14th-ranked run defense, and
they’re sixth in the league in rushing scores allowed and
fifth in yards per carry given up. Despite these numbers, they
are only slightly better than league average in terms of fantasy
points allowed to running backs because they have allowed four
receiving touchdowns to players at that position, which is the
same number of rushing scores they’ve given up to backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints no longer have the most fantasy-friendly
offense in the league, though they remain a decent source of points,
starting with quarterback Drew Brees. He isn’t providing
a bounty of touchdowns (save his seven-TD performance against
New York, obviously), but Brees remains a QB1, and has an obvious
rapport with wideout Brandin Cooks and tight end Ben Watson. Brees
and Cooks should be fantasy starters every week regardless of
the opponent, but Watson is more of a match-up based play, and
he’s probably better left on the sidelines this week against
the Texans.
Houston has the NFL’s fifth-ranked pass defense, is 15th
in both passing touchdowns ceded and interceptions, and 10th in
both sacks and yards per attempt allowed. The Texans are 17th
in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, but have surrendered
the 11th-fewest points to both wideouts and tight ends. Brees’
top three fantasy games this season have all come at home so temper
your expectations as New Orleans travels to Houston.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
remains a top-five back in fantasy scoring and continues to put
up points both on the ground and via reception. He should be fresh
coming off a bye and only saw eight touches in Week 10 (due to
the Saints getting blown out by Washington), and is a very solid
play this week against Houston.
The Texans rank 20th in the NFL the three major run defense categories
– yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, and yards per carry
surrendered. They have been better against the run in recent contests,
but have still given up the 12th-most fantasy points in the league
to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer makes his return as the team’s
starter this week after sitting out with a concussion during the
Texans’ Week 11 win over the Jets. He isn’t the most
consistent passer in terms of accuracy, but any quarterback going
up against New Orleans is at least a QB2, and Hoyer also has DeAndre
Hopkins to throw to, making Hoyer a viable QB1. Hopkins had 118
yards and a pair of touchdowns last week, leads all wide receivers
in fantasy scoring, and should absolutely immolate New Orleans
this week.
The Saints have inarguably the NFL’s worst pass defense
and one of the worst in league history up to this point, which
is why they fired their defensive coordinator, though whether
or not that makes a different is yet to be seen. They are 31st
in passing yards surrendered, have given up seven more touchdown
throws than any other team, and are last in yards per attempt
allowed, interceptions, and quarterback rating allowed. No team
has given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks or tight ends
than New Orleans, and they’ve also permitted the eighth-most
points to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Blue
managed 58 yards last week against the Jets, but it took him 21
carries (an average of 2.8 YPC) to do so. He did score via reception,
but Blue is highly inconsistent and incapable of being trusted
– most weeks. This week, he gets to go up against the Saints,
and that has meant fantasy points aplenty for most backs, making
Blue a flex play this week.
New Orleans has a run defense that isn’t as putrid as their
pass defense, but is still downright bad. The Saints are 29th
in the league against the run and dead last in yards per carry
allowed, though they’re 13th in rushing scores ceded, mostly
because everyone just throws the ball into the end zone against
them. No team has given up more receiving yards to opposing running
backs, and only the Chargers have allowed more fantasy points
to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As far as fantasy football goes, there is
very, very little to get excited about concerning Minnesota’s
passing game. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown multiple touchdowns
in only one game this season, tight end Kyle Rudolph catches an
occasional touchdown but picks up very few yards (with rare exceptions
such as last week against the Packers), and Mike Wallace has been
a bust. That pretty much leaves only Stefon Diggs as a fantasy
option, though his match-up this week is a poor one, and there
are no Vikings pass-catchers (or throwers) who should be used
as they take on Atlanta.
The Falcons are 18th in the NFL in pass defense and are tied with
the Giants for fewest sacks, but rank eighth or better in touchdown
passes given up, yards per pass attempt allowed, interceptions,
and quarterback rating allowed. Atlanta has surrendered the seventh-most
fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but has given up the
sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks and the second-fewest to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: It was completely
reasonable for fantasy owners to believe that Adrian Peterson,
after missing almost an entire season and hitting age 30, was
due for a rapid decline. Simply put, that hasn’t happened.
Peterson is currently the only back in the league with more than
1,000 rushing yards, and is obviously a RB1 in any circumstance,
including this week against the Falcons.
Atlanta leads the NFL in run defense, is third in yards per carry
allowed, and though they rank 30th in rushing scores surrendered,
no running back has reached the end zone against them since Week
6. The Falcons have also allowed the second-most receiving yards
in the league to running backs, and for the year have given up
the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The good news for Matt Ryan’s fantasy
owners is that he threw a season-high three touchdowns last week
against the Colts. The not so good news is that he also tossed
a season-high three interceptions. Ryan’s 15-to-10 touchdown-to-interception
ratio simply isn’t good enough for fantasy owners that envisioned
him as a weekly QB1, and for whatever reason he isn’t finding
Julio Jones in the end zone. Jones still had nine catches for
160 yards against Indy, but just six of his league-high 89 receptions
have gone for touchdowns. He’s obviously a fantasy starter
this week but does have a difficult match-up against the Vikings.
Leonard Hankerson (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and is
in danger of missing Sunday’s game. If he sits, Jacob Tamme
becomes a viable TE consideration.
Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in pass defense, touchdown
throws permitted, and yards per pass attempt given up, though
they are just 22nd in interceptions. The Vikings are in the middle
of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but they’ve
surrendered the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers, and the
fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, and
Tevin Coleman replaced him with little success. Freeman is unlikely
to play this week and the Falcons are practicing as if Tevin Coleman
will get the start. Coleman (17-48) was uninspiring last week
against the Colts but volume alone puts him on the RB2 radar.
He has only 1 catch out of the backfield on the season which is
alarming and the matchup against the Vikings is less than ideal.
The Vikings are tied for 17th in the league in run defense while
ranking sixth in rushing scores allowed despite being 24th in
yards per carry surrendered. They are one of five teams to have
held opposing backs to no touchdown catches, and as such have
given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points in the league to runners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers has put together a very good
season, despite what happened during last week’s pummeling
at the hands of the Chiefs. Still, it should be noted that he
has only one touchdown since Keenan Allen went down, and with
Malcolm Floyd also injured, the team is low on pass-catchers.
Antonio Gates has probably been better than most expected, but
fellow tight end Ladarius Green gets his share of looks, and without
Allen, there are no reliable weekly fantasy options, save Rivers,
and that holds true this week against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is 25th in the NFL against the pass, 15th in passing
scores allowed, 19th in yards per attempt, and 26th in interceptions.
The Jags have surrendered the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the
league to opposing wideouts, but have given up the 10th-most points
to tight ends, and the eighth-most points to quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Without a
touchdown to his name, Melvin Gordon is far down the list of running
backs when it comes to fantasy scoring. The Chargers have only
a pair of rushing scores this year, and Danny Woodhead has both.
He is also tops among running backs in receiving yards, and ranks
a surprising 12th in fantasy scoring at his position. At some
point Gordon is going to find the end zone, but due to his receiving
prowess, Woodhead is the more attractive fantasy option this week
against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are ninth in the league against the run and lead the
NFL in yards per carry allowed, but are 23rd in rushing touchdowns
permitted. They’ve also surrendered the eighth-most receiving
yards to backs, and as such have given up the 13th-most fantasy
points to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns,
and Julius Thomas have each proven themselves to be fantasy assets,
though Thomas hasn’t shown the consistency to be used on
a weekly basis. Thomas is useful based on the right match-up,
and that’s the case for him this week against San Diego,
who has had their struggles containing tight ends.
The Chargers are 17th in the league in pass defense and 11th in
passing touchdowns surrendered, though they rank 31st in yards
per attempt given up, 30th in quarterback rating allowed, 26th
in interceptions, and 23rd in sacks. San Diego has also permitted
the 11th-most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends, but has
held quarterbacks to the 10th-fewest points, and wideouts to the
seventh-fewest points.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon
has had a couple of decent games this year, but it’s unlikely
fantasy owners were willing to do much more than occasionally
place him as their flex option. The rookie is approaching 600
rushing yards, but has just a single rushing score for the year.
That should change this week, as Yeldon can confidently be called
a RB2 against a lousy Chargers run defense. Yeldon has seen at
least 17 touches in his last four games and could be in for a
big workload this week.
San Diego has been utterly horrid against the run this season,
ranking 26th in the league in rush defense, and second-to-last
in both rushing scores allowed and yards per carry surrendered.
They have given up the fifth-most receiving yards in the NFL to
running backs, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to
backs than the Chargers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor was one of the hottest breakout
quarterbacks at the beginning of the 2015 season, but he hasn’t
been the same since suffering a knee injury which held him out
for two games. Since returning, Taylor has played three games,
all against divisional opponents, but has failed to exceed 15
fantasy points (standard scoring). His passing numbers have been
lower, but perhaps the biggest difference is that his rushing
numbers have taken a significant tumble since his knee injury.
Taylor has rushed for just 57 total yards in his past three games
combined, a far cry from the 40-plus yard games he put up in three
of his first five contests this season.
To make matters worse, Taylor is now dealing with a sore throwing
shoulder, which should give fantasy owners some pause as he enters
into a tough road game against the Chiefs. Kansas City started
the season off slow, but they’ve been one of the most difficult
defenses to pass against as of late. Over their past five games
combined, the Chiefs have conceded just four total touchdowns
to opposing quarterbacks, including holding Philip Rivers and
the Chargers to just 178 yards and no touchdowns. During those
five games, no quarterback has even reached double digit fantasy
points against the Chiefs. While Taylor does bring the added dynamic
of his running ability, that won’t help his receivers, namely
Sammy Watkins who has been awful, catching just three passes in
each of his past two games. Watkins’ 53 total yards in Weeks
10 and 11 combined are unacceptable from a fantasy standpoint
and they bring serious doubt as to whether or not he is even a
viable WR2 in a tough matchup like this. Certainly the skill is
there, but the targets haven’t been as of late and he’s
only had one big game so far in 2015. In addition, tight end Charles
Clay has fallen out of most fantasy discussion as the tight end
has not scored a touchdown since Week 3.
Running Game Thoughts: The “touchdown in every game”
streak had to come to an end at some point, but it was a bit surprising
to see rookie running back Karlos Williams get so little work
in what was a competitive game against the Patriots in Week 11.
Williams got just six carries for 11 yards in the contest and
was a non-factor in the passing game, which meant he finished
with just one fantasy point on the day. Meanwhile starter LeSean
McCoy has been utilized like a “workhorse,” taking
at least 16 carries in each of his past five games since returning
from injury. McCoy was the only Bill to get into the end zone
this past week against the Patriots and he has now averaged nearly
15 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) since getting back
on the field in Week 6. McCoy’s PPR value may finally be
increasing as well. He hadn’t caught more than three passes
in any of the first nine weeks of the season, but he has now caught
five and six passes in back-to-back weeks.
In Week 12, McCoy and Williams will be running against a Kansas
City defense that has been great against the run this season.
Aside from the one game where they allowed four touchdowns to
the Bengals back in Week 4, the Chiefs have been dominant against
opposing running backs. They’ve only given up a total of
one rushing touchdown in their other nine games combined. Worse
yet for the Bills backs is that the Chiefs’ defense appears
to only be getting better as running backs have rushed for an
average of just 57 yards per game over their past three contests.
Not only that, but they’ve been great at slowing down running
backs in the passing game as they’ve given up the second-fewest
receptions to opposing running backs in the league. It’s
going to be hard to sit a red hot LeSean McCoy, but Williams shouldn’t
be in many lineups this week and be sure to temper your expectations
on McCoy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kansas City is making a late season push,
but it might be too little, too late for Alex Smith to put up
high end quarterback numbers. Smith has never been much of a fantasy
quarterback, but his one saving grace is that he does consistently
put up solid, unspectacular numbers. Smith has scored at least
13 fantasy points (standard scoring) in nine of his 10 games this
season, but has only exceeded 18 points twice. These consistent
solid performance has allowed him to be the No. 13 fantasy quarterback
in standard scoring formats, but none of his receivers have been
particularly great. Jeremy Maclin is the Chiefs’ top receiver,
but he’s ranked just 34th at the position on the year. His
production has really dropped off in recent weeks, as well. Maclin
has made just nine receptions over his past three games combined,
which has made him hard to start even in PPR formats.
The Chiefs passing game does have a fairly tough matchup this
week as they host a Buffalo defense that just held Tom Brady to
a 13 point fantasy day in Week 11. Buffalo struggled against the
pass early in the year, but they’ve really caught on in
recent weeks, having held opposing QB’s to an average of
just 12.5 fantasy points per game. One player who might have a
particularly tough time in this matchup is tight end Travis Kelce.
The Bills have given up just 72 yards receiving and no touchdowns
to opposing tight ends over their past four games combined. Kelce
himself has been on a cold streak as of late as well, having failed
to exceed 50 receiving yards or score a touchdown in either of
his past two games. The Kansas City passing game just doesn’t
put up enough points consistently to make their players viable
options other than in deep formats. The only exception is Kelce,
whose consistently solid numbers have made him a mid-level TE1.
Running Game Thoughts: A hamstring injury in Week 11 cost Charcandrick
West what could have been a big game in a blowout Kansas City
win over San Diego. West was injured early in the contest, leading
the way for Spencer Ware to step in and have a monster game of
his own as he rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns on just 11
carries. With Ware now seemingly locked in as the handcuff to
West, fantasy owners would be wise to snag Ware off of waivers,
particularly here in Week 12 as we don’t yet know whether
or not West will be suiting up. West has been a fantasy RB1 since
taking over the Chiefs’ starting running back role when
Jamaal Charles went out and while West is more talented than Ware,
it’s the volume that we like. The Chiefs are a run-first
offense seemingly no matter who is lined up in the backfield,
so they’re relatively safe with a high floor and a high
ceiling as well.
Fantasy owners need to pay close attention to the inactive reports
on Sunday morning as whoever starts for the Chiefs could be in
line for a nice game against a Buffalo defense that has given
up an average of almost 100 exactly yards on the ground over their
past five contests. While they’ve only given up a multiple-rushing
touchdown game once this year, the Bills have consistently given
up points to the position, including nine straight games of double-digit
production (standard scoring) to opposing running backs. If West
is available, he should be considered a low-end RB1 while Ware
would be a solid RB2 if he gets the start.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Cardinals and quarterback Carson Palmer
continued their hot streak in Week 11 with a big win over the
Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer surpassed the 300-yard-mark for the
third straight contest while throwing a whopping four touchdowns
- his sixth game of three or more touchdowns this season. Palmer
is now the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy football and his
consistency has been incredible. He’s had 16 or more fantasy
points in every game, including five games of 20 or more fantasy
points. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald also continues to play
at a high level as he is currently the fifth-highest scoring wide
receiver in standard scoring formats.
Fitzgerald has been limited in practice with an ankle but is
expected to play this week in what could be one of the best matchups
he will face all season. The 49ers have been awful against opposing
passing games in 2015 as they’ve given up the sixth-most
fantasy points per game to QB’s on the season. Fitzgerald
had one of his biggest games of the season when he faced this
San Francisco defense back in Week 3 as he caught nine passes
for a season-high 134 yards and two touchdowns. Palmer also eclipsed
300 yards in that contest, which should mean that this is a relatively
safe matchup for this duo. Fitzgerald’s fellow wideouts
John Brown and Michael Floyd could also make for decent WR3/Flex
options in this matchup. Floyd missed Week 11 with a hamstring
injury and he’s been limited in practice, but he had been
one of the league’s hottest fantasy players over his previous
four games. Head coach Bruce Arians mentioned that Floyd will
be active only if he sees that the receiver is able to run at
full speed prior to Sunday. Brown, meanwhile, has lacked the big
games this season but has typically been a solid fantasy contributor
when he’s been on the field. He’s dealt with a few
injuries, but played through a hamstring injury in Week 11 and
should be good to go in Week 12.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson struggled in a tough matchup
against a good Bengals run defense in Week 11 as he rushed for
just 63 yards on 18 carries, marking the second straight game
in which he has failed to produce quality rushing numbers. Johnson
had ripped off three 100-plus yard games in his previous four
games, but his age might be starting to show late in the season.
He’s still third in the league in rushing yardage, but Johnson
has scored just three touchdowns this season and is more of a
volume back than he is the explosive threat that he once was earlier
in his career.
Johnson does, however, have an excellent matchup here in Week
12 as he will be running against a San Francisco defense that
he absolutely abused back in Week 3. Johnson’s 150 total
yards in that contest was his highest total of the season and
he also scored two of his three total touchdowns in that one contest.
The 49ers haven’t fared much better against other running
backs, either, as they’ve given up the second-most fantasy
points to opposing running backs on the year. This past week it
was Seattle’s backup running back, Thomas Rawls, who torched
the 49ers for over 200 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The
49ers have given up at least 12 fantasy points (standard scoring)
to opposing running backs in all but one game this season and
they’ve also given up an astonishing six games of 22 or
more points to the position. Needless to say, Johnson is a strong
RB2 or even potential RB1 this week in what is arguably the best
matchup he’ll face all season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s never a good sign for a team
when your most consistent player is Blaine Gabbert, but that should
give you a good idea as to how messed up the 49ers franchise is
at the current moment. Gabbert, however, has actually not been
so bad since taking over the starting job from Colin Kaepernick
back in Week 9. In his two starts, Gabbert has accumulated 14
and 16 fantasy points while throwing for three touchdowns and
rushing for an impressive 54 yards. Anquan Boldin is the only
fantasy relevant wide receiver on the roster on the moment as
he made his return to the lineup in Week 11, catching five passes
for 93 yards. Tight end Vance McDonald also stepped up this past
week, making four receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown but
he appears to be splitting looks with fellow tight end Garrett
Celek who actually made two touchdown receptions himself back
in Week 9.
With Gabbert and the 49ers offense struggling as a whole, though,
now might not be a great time to begin trusting the San Francisco
players to get the job done from a fantasy standpoint. The Cardinals
have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
and while they struggled against Andy Dalton and the Bengals a
week ago, this same Arizona unit held Kaepernick to just 67 yards
while intercepting him four times back in Week 3. Certainly Gabbert
has been better than Kaepernick, but this is still not an ideal
matchup and Gabbert should really only be considered as a QB2
option. Boldin might be the only player worth starting in normal
leagues, but he was held completely in check when these teams
met in Week 3, as he made just two catches for 16 yards. Boldin
will likely see a lot of Patrick Peterson which really limits
his upside as anything other than a desperation WR3.
Running Game Thoughts: With Carlos Hyde still recovering from
a foot injury and having not practiced all week, Shaun Draughn
appears to be in line to get some more work here in Week 12. Draughn
has been decent, but not spectacular in relief of Hyde, rushing
for 95 yards over a two game stretch while adding 78 yards as
a receiver. Draughn is not a spectacularly talented running back
and his upside is fairly limited in an offense that rarely puts
up points. Still, he is getting the lion’s share of the
carries, which makes him more trustworthy than a lot of other
potential options here in Week 12.
Draughn’s usage in the passing game, especially this past
week when he made eight receptions, has to give fantasy owners
some hope for production in what could otherwise be a difficult
matchup. The Cardinals have held opposing running backs to fewer
than 65 rushing yards in seven of their 10 contests so far this
season. Where they’ve been a little more susceptible, however,
is allowing catches to opposing running backs. The Cardinals have
given up 59 receptions for 563 yards and two touchdowns to opposing
running backs so far this season and with Draughn getting targeted
as much as he is by Gabbert, there is reason to think that he
might be usable as a low-end RB2 or Flex option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been a bumpy ride for Ben Roethlisberger
here in 2015, but the Steelers QB has certainly produced some
big games when he’s been on the field. Unfortunately one
of his biggest games of the season came just prior to the Steelers’
Week 11 bye when he came off the bench as an emergency backup
quarterback to throw for an astonishing 379 yards and three touchdowns
with one interception against the Browns. Roethlisberger was noticeably
hampered by a foot injury, but now that he has had an additional
week to get healthy, Roethlisberger should be back in most fantasy
lineups here in Week 12. Along with the return of Big Ben has
come some impressive games for wide receiver Antonio Brown. Brown
has been an absolute beast this season when Roethlisberger has
been on the field and he has accumulated nearly 600 yards receiving
and three touchdowns over just his past four games. Fellow wideout
Martavis Bryant has also been getting it done as of late, especially
this past week when he caught six passes for 178 yards and a touchdown.
This high-powered Pittsburgh passing game has had an extra week
to prepare, but in Week 12 they will be up against arguably the
best secondary in the league as they head to Seattle to face the
Seahawks. Seattle has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, but they have actually
struggled a bit over the past two weeks, giving up 627 passing
yards and four total touchdowns to Carson Palmer and Blaine Gabbert.
There is some reason to hesitate as the Seahawks are undoubtedly
a tough defense, but the Pittsburgh offense has been good enough
this season that benching either Brown or Bryant seems like a
mistake and Roethlisberger is capable of putting up multiple scores
against any defense.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams has fully taken over
the starting running back job after Le’Veon Bell went down
with a season-ending ACL injury and fantasy owners have been loving
what they’ve received. In his four starts this season, Williams
has averaged 107 rushing yards while averaging over 20 receiving
yards per game and scoring a total of five touchdowns. Needless
to say, he’s been a rock solid RB1 when he’s been
given the opportunity and given his heavy workload, that appears
likely to continue through the remainder of the season.
It won’t be an easy road to another RB1 performance here
in Week 12, though, as Williams will be up against one of the
league’s premier run defenses in Seattle. The Seahawks have
given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running
backs so far in 2015 and they’ve held the position to 10
or fewer fantasy points (standard scoring) in seven of their 10
games. Worse yet, they’ve given up just three touchdowns
to the position on the year. Williams’ matchup against the
Seahawks is definitely a cause for a concern, but the volume he’s
been getting and his usage in the passing game gives him a solid
floor even in tough matchups. It seems unlikely that he’ll
have a huge breakout game, but he should be viewed as a solid
RB2.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson finally woke up from his
season-long slumber this past week in what was a breakout fantasy
performance for he and the Seahawks offense. Wilson threw for
260 yards on the day, but it was his three touchdowns and no interceptions
that should have fantasy owners interested. Wilson hadn’t
thrown for multiple touchdowns since all the way back in Week
2 and it was his first time this season that he had thrown for
three scores in a game. Wilson’s rushing numbers remain
relatively consistent at between 30 to 50 yards per game, but
he hasn’t yet made a trip into the end zone as a runner
which has limited him to be just the No. 12-scoring fantasy quarterback
so far this year. Wilson’s top target continues to be veteran
Doug Baldwin who contributes decent enough numbers to finish as
a WR3 most weeks but lacks the upside to be deployed in most formats.
This past week, though, it was rookie Tyler Lockett who had his
first multi-touchdown game when he caught two scores from Wilson
in the blowout win over the 49ers.
Wilson and tight end Jimmy Graham continue to lack chemistry,
however, and unfortunately Graham is the only pass-catcher in
this offense who is really a fantasy option on a week-to-week
basis. The unit will have an opportunity to put up some decent
numbers here in Week 12, however, as they will be at home against
a Pittsburgh defense that just got done giving up 372 yards through
the air to Johnny Manziel in Week 11 and a 301-yard, four touchdown
day to Derek Carr back in Week 9. The Steelers have certainly
been struggling against the pass and with their run defense performing
the way it has been, it would not be at all surprising to see
the Seahawks rely heavily on Wilson and the passing game in this
matchup. If there’s a game when the Seahawks need Graham
to step up, it’ll be this one as the Steelers have been
beaten up by opposing tight ends. They’ve given up the fifth-most
fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the year and tight ends
have scored against them in back-to-back weeks heading into this
contest.
Running Game Thoughts: No Marshawn Lynch? No problem. Rookie
Thomas Rawls is back in the lineup and he is looking like an absolute
monster right now. Rawls rushed for 209 yards and a touchdown
in the Seahawks’ win over the 49ers in Week 11. That number
is more than Lynch has ever rushed for in a single game as a member
of the Seahawks. Rawls also caught three passes for 46 yards and
scored a touchdown as a receiver. With Lynch having underwent
surgery to repair a sports hernia, the Seahawks will look to the
young tailback to again shoulder the brunt of the workload here
in Week 12. Fred Jackson, meanwhile, will serve as a change-of-pace
back and should continue to see work as a third down back, but
his fantasy value is very limited unless Rawls, too, goes out
with an injury.
Rawls’ Week 11 breakout performance had the fantasy world
buzzing, but it’s worth considering that his huge game came
against one of the league’s worst defenses. It won’t
be that easy here in Week 12 as he will be up against a Pittsburgh
defense that has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running
backs than any team in the league so far this season. Pittsburgh
has been completely dominating opposing backs and no game was
more impressive than what they did this past week when they held
the Browns’ running backs to just five total rushing yards
on the day. While it’s true that the Pittsburgh run defense
has benefited from teams opting to pass more than run against
them, this is still an underrated unit who has allowed just two
total touchdowns to the position on the year. Rawls should still
be in most lineups given the run-heavy nature of the Seattle offense,
but try to temper your expectations of him in this very difficult
matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Patriots remained undefeated with a
close win over the Bills on Monday Night Football, but for the
first time this season, it appears that Tom Brady and the New
England passing game might be starting to waver a bit. Brady failed
to throw for multiple touchdowns for the first time all season
in the Monday night contest and he also threw what was just his
fourth interception of the season. Certainly Brady’s 13
point fantasy day wasn’t horrible, but it was a bit concerning
due to how it happened. The Bills seemed to gameplan around limiting
Rob Gronkowski, which meant other receivers had to step up. With
Julian Edelman injured, it was up to Danny Amendola to fill the
role as Brady’s go-to receiver, which he did admirably,
catching nine passes for 117 yards before he also went down with
an injury. Brandon LaFell did make four catches for 66 yards on
the day and a few other pass catchers made some contributions,
but this team just cannot afford to lose another playmaker in
their offense.
The Patriots’ receivers were already weak to begin with,
but if Amendola is unable to play - which seems at least possible
- it could be a long day for Brady and the passing game as they
go up against a Denver defense that might just be the best overall
unit in the league. Denver has given up the fewest fantasy points
per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and their 9.7 points
per game average is a full 3 points per game fewer than the next-closest
team, St. Louis. This defense has been harassing opposing quarterbacks
all season with their pass rush which has certainly helped their
secondary look even better than it already is and the unit has
given up just eight passing touchdowns on the year while forcing
10 interceptions. Brady is absolutely capable of having a quality
game even in a tough matchup, but this is as difficult as it gets.
If the Broncos are able to take away Gronkowski as the Bills did
in Week 11, we might finally see Brady have a truly bad fantasy
day.
Running Game Thoughts: With Dion Lewis out for the year, the
Patriots needed to find a player who could complement the bruising
style of LeGarrette Blount. They might have found it in James
White. White scored a touchdown both as a runner and as a receiver
in Week 11 despite touching the ball just four times. What’s
important, though, is that he was on the field for almost one
third of the Patriots’ offensive plays. Even that much usage
in an offense like this can translate into fantasy production.
Still, Blount is the player to own in this offense and should
continue getting plenty of work, especially in games where the
Patriots get out to an early lead.
The Denver defense has been good enough to keep them in most
games this season despite some truly atrocious quarterback play
and they’ll need to do it again here in Week 12 if they
hope to walk away with a win. The Broncos’ pass defense
has been immaculate this season, which likely means that the Patriots
will be looking to run the ball and control the clock more than
usual in this game. If there’s a place to attack the Broncos
defense, it seems to be on the ground as the unit currently ranks
15th in fantasy points given up to opposing backs. While they’ve
given up an average of just 75 rushing yards per game, the Broncos
have allowed 12 total touchdowns to opposing running backs on
the season, including at least one score in each of their past
four games. They have, however, only given up one game of 100-plus
rushing yards and that came all the way back in Week 2 against
Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs. This game will likely be a low-scoring
affair, so don’t expect a huge performance from any player,
but Blount does have a decent opportunity to get into the end
zone in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The quarterback controversy in Denver is
over - at least for now - as reports have come in that Peyton
Manning has been dealing with a plantar fascia tear and will miss
at least the next few weeks. In the meantime, and perhaps even
after Manning’s return, the Broncos will continue to look
to Brock Osweiler, who has actually looked decent in the limited
playing time he’s received. Osweiler started his first game
this past week against the Bears, throwing for 250 yards and two
touchdowns with no interceptions in a close road win. Oddly enough,
in his first start, Osweiler became the first Broncos quarterback
to not throw an interception in a game this season. With Emmanuel
Sanders out, Osweiler spread his targets out, completing passes
to eight different receivers, including touchdowns to Demaryius
Thomas and Cody Latimer. Tight end Vernon Davis, who the Broncos
acquired via trade before the deadline, finally showed up in Week
11 as he made a team high six receptions for 68 yards. Osweiler
brings an interesting dynamic to the Broncos offense because while
Manning was wildly inconsistent, he did benefit fantasy owners
because he keyed in almost exclusively on his top two receivers,
Thomas and Sanders. With Osweiler having not developed chemistry
with those players yet, he might actually be more comfortable
throwing to running backs, tight ends and even depth receivers
like Latimer who he has had an opportunity to practice with on
the second team offense.
If Osweiler can avoid falling into the trap of trying to compare
himself to the future hall of famer playing across from him, he
should have an opportunity for at least a decent game here in
Week 12. The Patriots rank 12th in fantasy points given up to
opposing quarterbacks this season, but they’ve had moments
of weakness even against some not-so-great QB’s. With the
Broncos’ running game being very inconsistent, there’s
a real possibility that Osweiler could end up throwing the ball
40-plus times in this game. If that happens, it would be very
surprising if he and at least a couple of his receivers didn’t
have quality fantasy days. Sanders should be back this week which
will give the offense an added playmaker and could help make Osweiler
a sneaky play for those looking for a streaming quarterback option.
Running Game Thoughts: The Denver running game has been a complete
crapshoot through much of the season, but they continue to tantalize
us with the occasional game where they look like the unit that
was so productive in 2014. One of those games happened this past
week when Ronnie Hillman rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries while
C.J. Anderson added 12 carries for 59 yards of his own. That game
comes just two weeks after a bafflingly awful day that these two
backs had against the Colts when they combined for just 35 total
rushing yards. The duo still continues to be wildly inconsistent
as neither player has been able to rush for even 70 or more yards
in back-to-back games in any contest this season, but it appears
that the decision to allow Hillman to be the lead back has given
both he and Anderson new life.
The duo will certainly be an important part of the game here
in Week 12 as the Broncos host the Patriots in what many believe
could be a preview of the AFC championship game. With Denver rolling
out a young, inexperienced quarterback against a Bill Belichick-coached
New England Patriots defense, there is a real possibility that
the Broncos will opt to control the game as much as possible with
their running game. Unfortunately, the Patriots have been excellent
against the run so far this season, having given up the third-fewest
fantasy points per game on the year. Of course, some of that has
to do with the fact that they’ve also blown out quite a
few teams, forcing the opposition to run the ball less than they
otherwise might, but the 3.7 yards per carry they’re allowing
is a good number no matter how it’s happening. Don’t
be surprised if the Patriots choose to stack the box in order
to take away the run, forcing Osweiler to put the game on his
shoulders and try to outduel one of the league’s MVP candidates,
Tom Brady.