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Inside the Matchup
Week 12
11/25/15; Updated: 11/27/15

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



PHI @ DET | CAR @ DAL | CHI @ GB | STL @ CIN

BAL @ CLE | MIA @ NYJ | NYG @ WAS | OAK @ TEN

TB @ IND | NO @ HOU | MIN @ ATL | SD @ JAX

BUF @ KC | ARI @ SF | PIT @ SEA | NE @ DEN

Eagles at Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has been medically cleared from his concussion, but could sit another week as a result of a separated shoulder he also suffered in Week 10. Neither Bradford nor backup Mark Sanchez are aware who will be under center on Thanksgiving Day and head coach Chip Kelly nor offensive coordinator Pat Schumer have tipped their hand to the media. While the offense moves quicker and more efficiently under Sanchez, Bradford was starting to look comfortable before succumbing to injury and likely gives the team the better chance to win. Sanchez has looked good at times, but just like during his tenure in New York, his costly mistakes make it difficult for his team to trust him long term. The passing attack has not worked as well as it has under Chip Kelly’s first two seasons in the league.

Bradford has also made some bad decisions, turning the ball over in the redzone far too often and his below average pass catchers have not helped matters. Jordan Matthews was expected to be a breakout candidate but has failed to deliver on his successful rookie season, struggling as the team’s top option. At this point in the season, fantasy owners would need to be desperate to use any members of this passing game.

The Lions defense struggled for most of the season, but shut down two hot quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Derrek Carr the last two weeks. The Lions have allowed 265.8 passing yards per game and 1.6 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. Darius Slay has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league over the last five weeks, but got banged up last week. It will be interesting to see if he moves inside to cover Jordan Matthews (something he typically doesn’t do) with the underwhelming Riley Cooper and Josh Huff playing on the outside. The Lions’ pass rush should be able to put pressure on either Eagles’ quarterback behind an offensive line that has played extremely poorly in 2015 and both quarterbacks have shown a penchant towards turning the ball over. This could end up being an ugly game.

Running Game Thoughts: With Ryan Mathews missing last week’s game and expected to sit out again, DeMarco Murray should continue to see a heavy workload. Murray has not fit in well with the Eagles offensive scheme that asks him to run out of shotgun formations and to run far too many sweeps. His dedication and effort was questioned this week by an unnamed teammate that took umbrage with the big back sliding to the ground instead of taking on a much smaller defensive back in his way during last week’s game. This is the type of season that it’s been in Philadelphia. The Eagles are averaging only 119.2 yards per game on the ground but have scored 10 rushing touchdowns. Darren Sproles should see another bump in his usage with Mathews out again and the veteran is still productive in the passing game. Sproles turned a screen pass into a nice touchdown run and finished the game with 59 total yards last week with Mathews out.
The Lions’ run defense has been very poor during the course of the 2015 season which could work to the Eagles’ advantage. The team is now allowing 128.5 yards per game on the ground and has yielded a league worst 15 rushing touchdowns.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 10 rush yds
DeMarco Murray: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Josh Huff: 35 rec yds
Brent Celek: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The switch in offensive coordinators from Joe Lombardi to Jim Bob Cooter has not had earth shattering results, While Matt Stafford has arguably played better since the move was made, the Lions passing attack has still not been overly productive. Last week Stafford did not throw a touchdown pass, although he did run for one. Calvin Johnson sprained an ankle in Week 8 and has played through it but has only managed a relatively pedestrian 11 catches for 169 yards over the last two weeks. Johnson, who turned 30 in September could be starting on the downswing of his career as he has yet to really dominate a game all season outside of Week 6 where he totaled 166 yards and one of his three scores on the season. Head Coach Jim Caldwell has stated a need to get Eric Ebron, who went catchless last week back involved in the offense. The second-year tight end started the season strongly but has faded in recent weeks with numerous drops on his resume.

The Eagles allowed rookie Jameis Winston to throw 5 touchdowns against them last week as he picked apart what looked like an overmatched secondary. Prized offseason acquisition cornerback Byron Maxwell who started the season slowly, started coming around before once again regressing back to early season form in recent weeks. On the season the unit is allowing 245.9 passing yards per game and after last week, 20 passing touchdowns against.

Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have been the worst rushing offense in the league this season, averaging only 71 yards per game on the ground. At this point, it’s hardly worth writing about the Detroit running game in a column for a fantasy football website as no owner could feel comfortable starting Ameer Abdullah or Joique Bell unless they had no other choices. The offensive line play has been poor thus far and counting on a Lions running back seems like a dangerous proposition. I have three words for anyone thinking about starting one: Don’t do it. That was technically two words and a contraction, but you get the point.

At least the matchup will be attractive, as the Eagles are coming off a game where the Buccaneers ran for over 250 yards against them. On the season they currently sit as the 28th ranked run defense allowing 128.5 rushing yards per game. Even with an attractive matchup like this, I still could not recommend a Lions back.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds, 1 TD
Ameer Abdullah: 20 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Joique Bell: 45 rush yds
Calvin Johnson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 55 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Lions 27, Eagles 24 ^ Top

Panthers @ Cowboys - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Is there a hotter QB in the NFL than Cam Newton right now? Fresh off undoubtedly his best game of the season and quite possibly his best game as a professional, Newton is leading an undefeated team and is right up there with Tom Brady and Carson Palmer in MVP talk. Newton threw 5 TDs last week and didn’t turn the ball over for just the third time this season. He now has thrown for 20 scores, four away from his career high and we still have six games remaining. This is a special year for Newton and he’s doing it with Ted Ginn as his number one receiver…for now. It is my belief (and the belief of many) that both Newton and Ron Rivera would like that primary target to become Devin Funchess. The 21-year-old rookie out of Michigan got off to an incredibly rough start this season, but has been rapidly improving the past couple weeks and could be emerging as a key cog in this offense down the stretch. Funchess has scores in two of his last three games and taken full advantage of the injury to Philly Brown.

The Cowboys have actually been a top 10 unit against the pass. They’ve allowed 231.1 passing yards per game and only 11 scores through the air. Outside receivers have often struggled against the Cowboys so this isn’t as juicy of a matchup as one may think. The Cowboys shut down Ryan Tannehill last week (not that difficult – I know) and while obviously Newton is far more talented than Tannehill, the Cowboys will not make it easy for him. Regardless, he’s locked in as a top 5 option, but no one other than Newton and Greg Olsen is a must start on this Panthers passing offense.

Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart is having the quietest RB1 season I can remember. He did a whole lot of nothing early in the year, but has really come on as of late, scoring five touchdowns in his last six games and breaking the 100-yard rushing mark twice. Even though he caught a touchdown last week, he still brings almost nothing to the table in the passing game and comes out more often than one would like at the goal line. Helping his cause is a Cowboys defense that struggled mightily last week with Lamar Miller, but was bailed out by the fact that the Dolphins only gave him seven carries. JStew is a lock for 15-plus carries, which is probably being conservative considering he’s gone over 20 carries for six consecutive games. The Cowboys are allowing 104.7 rushing yards against per game and have allowed 10 rushing scores. While Newton is always a threat to poach rushing numbers, Stewart is a top 12 option and a must start on Thanksgiving.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 50 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 80 rush yds
Ted Ginn Jr.: 45 rec yds
Devin Funchess: 60 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: One down, six to go. The Cowboys still have a long road ahead if they want to contend for the division, but without a win this week against the undefeated Panthers, it will be over before it really gets going. Tony Romo made his triumphant return to action last week and unsurprisingly led the Cowboys to victory. He was his usual elusive self in the pocket, extending plays and avoiding sacks, but also displayed considerable rust on his throws early in the game. He still had a solid outing, completing 18-of-28 for 227 yards and 2 TDs. He did throw two interceptions, but one was a miscommunication with Dez Bryant, which can be chalked up to the fact that the two had previously been on the field for about half a game together and the other was just an overthrow on a dump off over the middle. Romo should look much better now that he’s got a game under his belt, but the Panthers pose a tough challenge in their elite defensive unit.

They allow just 228.3 passing yards per game and are one of just two teams (Denver) to have forced more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. The biggest matchup of the week is between Dez Bryant and arguably the league’s top shut down corner, Josh Norman. The Cowboys will look to move Bryant around the offensive formation to avoid Norman, but he will still be running the majority of his routes from the outside and that’s where Norman lives. You don’t sit Dez Bryant, but expectations should be tempered in a game where Romo might look for Terrance Williams or Jason Witten a little more than usual.

Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden was “limited” last week…allegedly. I didn’t notice. McFadden carried the ball 29 times for 129 yards and was the clear workhorse after talks of Robert Turbin cutting into his usage proved unsubstantiated. With the Panthers an elite unit defending the pass and the Cowboys always looking to control time of possession, DMC is in store for another heavy workload after reporting no setbacks following last week’s game. The Panthers are no slouches against the run, either. They have only allowed one back to eclipse 100 yards against them (Doug Martin Week 4). In fact, that was the only game this season where the Panthers didn’t have the leading rusher in the contest. Despite allowing 94.5 rushing yards per game and a mere 3.9 yards per carry, McFadden has as good of a chance as anyone to be just the second back to lead a Panthers game in rushing due primarily to his volume, which is also what keeps DMC firmly in the RB1 conversation.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 250 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Darren McFadden: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 45 rec yds
Terrance Williams: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Cole Beasley: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 60 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Panthers 23 ^ Top

Bears @ Packers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler struggled against a tough Broncos’ defense with a depleted receiving corps in Week 11. He did not throw a touchdown pass and was picked off and lost a fumble in a close loss. The Bears were missing starting wide receivers Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and starting running back Matt Forte while starting tight end Martellus Bennett was slowed with a hip injury. This was Cutler’s first game without a touchdown pass in a season where the much maligned QB has resurrected his career somewhat under head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Jeffrey has missed five games already this season with various ailments and is currently nursing shoulder and groin injuries. When he’s played, he’s done well and is Cutler’s go to guy, but he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy in a contract year. The latest news makes it seem doubtful that he’ll be in the line-up on Thursday and with TE Martellus Bennett ruled out, Cutler will be playing with a short deck again.

The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 254.6 yards per game with 13 touchdowns against in 2015 making this an above average matchup for the Bears’ passing attack. The Bears are likely heading into this game looking to run the ball and control the clock, but if the Packers offense gets back on track that may not be realistic. The Packers have 29 sacks and 11 interceptions on the season so if the Bears do fall behind and need to abandon the run in order to play catch-up, things could get ugly for a quarterback that has cut down on his turnovers but hasn’t exactly eliminated them altogether.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte has missed the last three games which has allowed rookie Jeremy Langford to showcase himself and the former Spartan has shown very well. Langford totaled 324 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first two games in place of the injured Forte, but against a tough Broncos’ run defense he wasn’t nearly as effective. Langford finished with only 42 total yards and a late touchdown which would have tied the game had he not failed to cross the goal-line on the two point conversion. Forte should be healthy enough to return this week and should certainly get his starting role back but Langford has earned playing time at the veteran’s expense. It could be as close to a 60-40 split in favor of Forte going forward, which will come as a blow to a veteran used to seeing as high as 80 percent of the work. Fantasy owners are not likely to be very happy but the Bears offense should be much better off with two good backs in the mix.

The Packers are a below average run defense, allowing 114 yards per game and 9 rushing touchdowns on the season, but they are coming off a game where they managed to hold Adrian Peterson in check. Ideally, the Bears will be looking to exploit their advantage and run the ball but the Packers will be expecting it just like they were last week. It just may be time for the Packers to get their momentum rolling back in the “right” direction.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 65 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Langford: 30 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Josh Bellamy: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Marquess Wilson: 60 rec yds
Zach Miller: 45 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers must still be “trying too hard”, as he once again struggled last week albeit this time in victory at least. Rodgers threw for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns and completed only 47 percent of his passes against the Vikings. He showed flashes of his greatness, notably on a 27-yard touchdown strike to James Jones, but overall he was not on his game. If there is a physical ailment, the Packers have contained it well, but it seems more of a psychological issue as Rodgers looks like a guy that doesn’t trust in his abilities. Randall Cobb has also struggled this season, earlier perhaps due to a shoulder injury but it could also be the extra attention that has come his way without Jordy Nelson. Davante Adams was also banged up for much of the season and hasn’t been enough of a presence to get the offense back on track since his return two weeks ago. Rodgers is too good for anyone to think this passing attack will not get turned back around, but the longer the struggles continue the less confidence fantasy owners will have.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense playing better than anyone could have realistically expected prior to the season. Their pass defense is the fourth ranked unit in the league allowing only 217.2 yards per game. However, the Bears have allowed 19 passing touchdowns on the season. A team with a lack of pass rush and an inability to create turnovers like the Bears could be just the opposition that gives Rodgers the sense of confidence he needs to get back into a groove.

Running Game Thoughts: It looks like Eddie Lacy found some motivation after being benched for veteran James Starks. Lacy rushed for 100 yards on 22 carries last week, and looked as good as he has all season after struggling mightily in recent weeks. Lacy showed great vision and ran with the power that made him a force to be reckoned with during his first two NFL seasons. It seems likely that he should be the lead back once again Thursday night even if Starks is given the ceremonial start. Starks is a fine back in his own right, but is limited compared to the far more powerful and dynamic Lacy.

Lacy gets a chance to get his season turned back around as the Bears have been one of the league’s worst run defenses in 2015 allowing 123.7 yards per game on the ground. They have however allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns on the season, a number predicted to rise by Black Friday.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
James Starks: 35 rush yds, 30 rec yds
James Jones: 30 rec yds
Randall Cobb: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Richard Rodgers: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 17 ^ Top

Rams v. Bengals - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Case Keenum did not provide the spark to the Rams’ passing offense that Jeff Fisher hoped for after benching Nick Foles. Keenum completed only 12 of his 26 attempts for 136 yards last week although he did find a wide open tight end Lance Kendricks for a touchdown. However, the only talking point coming out of his appearance was the controversy surrounding him being left in the game despite an obvious concussion. He’s expected to be cleared prior to Week 12, but his performance was so poor that Foles could be thrust back into the line-up. It likely doesn’t matter which quarterback ends up under center as neither have passed for more than 200 yards since Week 1 and outside of perhaps Tavon Austin there is no one is this passing game that should be anywhere near a fantasy lineup.

The Bengals’ defense is allowing 242.8 passing yards per game while giving up 15 passing touchdowns and grabbing 11 interceptions on the season. This aggressive unit should have a relatively easy week and should likely focus their efforts on stopping Todd Gurley.

Running Game Thoughts: Gurley “struggled” for the first time since he’s been handed significant carries against a tough Ravens run defense last week. He gained only 66 yards and scored a touchdown on 25 carries. The problem facing Gurley is that the Rams offensive line is subpar and teams have determined that they can stack the box to stop the Rams, with no other offensive players to worry about. He is already arguably the best running back in the league and will be the focal part of this offense, and has proven to be talented enough to find success despite all of the defensive attention. This week should be no different.

While Gurley will likely find a way to be productive, expectations should be tempered against a Bengals team that has been very strong against the run. The Bengals have limited the opposition to 100.4 yards per game this season with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed. The Rams will have no choice but to feed their best player on Sunday even if he does start slowly.

Projections:
Case Keenum: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Todd Gurley: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Tre Mason: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 65 rec yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Kenny Britt: 30 rec yds
Jared Cook: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton is now saddled with having to turn his team’s fortunes around after the Bengals lost their second consecutive game last week. Dalton finished strong in bringing his team back from a deficit, finishing the game with 315 yards and 2 touchdown passes. Both of his touchdown throws went to tight end Tyler Eifert who now has 11 touchdown receptions in 10 games. Eifert has excelled as a red zone target but needs to get worked into the overall passing game a little more as his size and speed make him a matchup problem. A.J. Green was held mostly in check by Patrick Peterson last week but is still one of the more dangerous wide receivers in the league and should get back on track this week. Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones both help keep the chains moving for one of the best and deepest offenses in the league.

For the third straight week the Bengals will face stiff competition, with this week the Rams’ top 5 defense coming to the Jungle. The Rams are allowing 229.4 passing yards per game and have only given up 9 touchdown passes. Expect the Bengals’s weapons to test this tough pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals have been a pure RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard and both have been mostly effective in their roles. Bernard has continued to look like the more explosive and effective back while Hill shasn’t looked anything like he did as a rookie, but is having success in the red-zone. Hill has looked far more sluggish and indecisive this season and is averaging below 4 yards per carry. Bernard meanwhile is averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry and has chipped in with 34 receptions for 326 yards. The Bengals however seem content to limit his carries and keep him fresh.

The Rams have been a tough run defense allowing 108.1 yards per game and only 6 scores on the ground. The Bengals balanced offense will need to find some success early if they hope to halt the team’s two game skid.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 10 rush yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Hill: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 30 rush yds, 35 rec yds
A.J. Green: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Marvin Jones: 35 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Bengals 31, Rams 20 ^ Top

Ravens at Browns - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: In what is already a lost season for the Ravens, the team will now also be dealing with the loss of their starting quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco tore his ACL and MCL during last week’s game against the Rams so the team will now have to turn to veteran washout Matt Schaub at quarterback. Schaub had some success earlier in his career with the Texans, but has since floundered into a turnover machine and is more known for throwing pick-sixes than touchdown passes. The Ravens were already down to starting Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens as their top wide receivers due to multiple injuries, and while Flacco managed to make them mildly fantasy relevant, all of that is out the window with Schaub under center. Luckily for most fantasy owners with bye weeks now over, starting any Ravens pass catcher is likely unnecessary.

If you need to take the risk, the Ravens passing attack is in a good spot as the Browns will be fielding the 26th ranked pass defense, which is allowing 268.5 yards per game and has given up 21 TDs through the air with only 6 interceptions.

Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens injury woes are not limited to the passing game. Veteran running back Justin Forsett was also lost for the season with a broken arm. His rookie backup, Buck Allen, has looked good in his limited carries and will now get a chance to show he can handle the lead back role in 2016. Allen runs with power and has great balance and should be able to keep the chains moving. Allen rushed for 67 yards on 22 carries last week in relief of Forsett and has 249 yards on the season. The Ravens will surely be leaning on the run game with Schaub under center making Allen and intriguing option for fantasy owners.

Allen gets a soft landing spot for his first start with the bottom ranked Browns’ run defense being the opposition. The Browns’ defense is allowing a league worst 138.8 yards per game, at 4.6 yards per carry, and has yielded 9 rushing touchdowns. If Schaub can play respectable enough to earn any attention at all from the Browns’ defense, Allen is in line for a big game this week.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 5 rush yds
Javorius Allen: 110 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Kamar Aiken: 40 rec yds
Chris Givens: 30 rec yds
Crockett Gillmore: 55 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Head Coach Mike Pettine had announced during the team’s bye week that Johnny Manziel would start over Josh McCown for the rest of the season. Manziel was coming off his best game of the season and it was only logical that the team would want to see what they have in the young signal caller before they must make a decision on their future at the position. But it being the Browns, their best laid plans went astray. Video of Manziel partying showed up on social media despite warnings from the team to lay low during the bye week, and Pettine immediately announced Johnny Football would be heading back to the bench. Gary Barnidge owners rejoiced. Barnidge at 6’6” and 250 pounds was a redzone monster for McCown early in the season and should continue to flourish with McCown back under center. McCown who never really deserved to be benched in the first place gets another chance to keep his late career surge going and perhaps earning another chance to be a bridge starter for the team next season after they inevitably draft their next future franchise quarterback.

McCown should look forward to facing a Baltimore pass defense that has yielded big numbers more often than not this season and no longer has anything to play for. On the season the Ravens are allowing 257 passing yards per game and have allowed 19 passing touchdowns with only 4 interceptions in 10 games. This should be a favorable matchup on paper.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland running game rotation became a little clearer after Robert Turbin was released but it was still just as ineffective as it’s been all season. Isaiah Crowell sees much of the heavy lifting with rookie Duke Johnson being mixed in and handling most of the passing game work. Head Coach Mike Pettine has expressed a desire to get the rookie Johnson more involved, but so far that hasn’t really materialized. In the Browns’ last game against Pittsburgh Crowell rushed six times for -5 yards. He’s averaging a poor 3.1 yards per carry on the season. His poor performance could open the door for Glenn Winston who was activated from the PUP list prior to Week 10 and is said to have “shown a lot of the practice field”. Something has to change whether that’s getting the rookie more involved as a runner or turning to the second year UDFA Winston to see what he has.

The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league so it’s not likely that the Browns’ running game misfortunes get turned around this week. The Ravens are allowing only 97 rushing yards per game with 6 rushing scores on the season.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Isaiah Crowell: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Duke Johnson: 25 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Brian Hartline: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Hawkins: 45 rec yds
Travis Benjamin: 85 rec yds
Gary Barnidge: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Browns 27, Ravens 17 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Jets - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Dan Campbell honeymoon is clearly over. The Dolphins have fallen to the bottom of the AFC East and their franchise QB has been “just a guy.” Ryan Tannehill was supposed to continue his evolution as a passer this season after an impressive 2014 campaign. Instead, he has regressed. It is unclear if a large portion of the blame should go to the front office and coaching staff as this appears to be a team without an identity. They don’t want to pound the ball on the ground, but they don’t want to unleash Tannehill either. That leaves Tannehill and this entire offense stuck in limbo. Tannehill threw just 24 passes last week, completing a season low 13 for also a season low 188 yards. He was victimized by a few drops, but on the TD he threw to Roland McClain (not a Dolphin), he has no one to blame but himself.

The Cowboys shut down Rishard Matthews as I feared might happen, but at least Jarvis Landry had a competent day with 4 catches for 66 yards. He’s failed to top 50 yards just twice all season and remains a reliable WR2 even against a Jets defense responsible for his worst game in 2015. The Jets held Landry to just 40 yards on 4 catches in Week 4 and although they struggled last week with DeAndre Hopkins, the Jets remain one of the league’s best units defensively. They are responsible for Tannehill’s other sub 200-yard passing day. Allowing just 231.4 passing yards per game and a league best 56.2 completion percentage against, even without Darrelle Revis, Tannehill should be nowhere near starting lineups in the first week since Week 3 with no byes.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins were never really out of last week’s game until well into the 4th quarter. That’s what makes their play calling and offensive philosophy so baffling. Despite averaging 6.3 yards per carry, Lamar Miller saw just 7 carries. Naturally, that must mean impressive rookie Jay Ajayi cut into Miller’s workload. Nope. Ajayi had just 4 carries himself. Last week, Miller was also a nonfactor in the passing game, leading to his worst fantasy output of the Dan Campbell era. Looking back on the last time the Dolphins played the Jets, it is difficult to give any heavy weight to player performances as that game was the final one with Joe Philbin calling the shots. However, I would be remiss to fail to mention that it was easily Miller’s worst game of the season as he took just 7 carries for 26 yards and caught just 1 pass for 10 yards. There are obvious differences between then and now, though. Philbin is gone. Campbell is in. Ajayi is active. The Jets are allowing 3.8 yards per carry to opposing RBs and a third best 91.6 yards per game. They have allowed a mere two rushing TDs against all season. Miller remains a high end RB2 due to the overall unreliability of the position this year, but this is as poor of a matchup as they come for running backs.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 70 rec yds
Rishard Matthews: 40 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to play with his newly repaired, heavily wrapped left thumb last week, but was stymied by the Texans rapidly improving defense. Fitzpatrick completed less than half his throws for 216 yards while tossing (and rushing) for 1 TD, but throwing 2 INTs. Whenever you are thoroughly outplayed by T.J. Yates, you are having a bad day. Fitzpatrick’s struggles aside, he remained committed to relentlessly targeting Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The two combined for 21 targets, but were highly inefficient, catching just 9 between them with the lone TD going to Marshall. Decker failed to score for just the second time this season, but did top 80 yards, which he has done in both of his scoreless games.

When these teams last played, Marshall had his highest receiving total of the season with 128 yards and Decker found the end zone. The Dolphins allowed receiving TDs to both Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams last week and have now allowed 19 receiving TDs on the season. Marshall is a WR1 and Decker a high end WR2 in an above average matchup against a Jets team on the precipice of freefall.

Running Game Thoughts: On the topic of season highs, Chris Ivory also had his best rushing total of the season against the Dolphins when he took his season high in carries (29) for his season high in yards (166). An interesting note from that game - it is the only one where Ivory failed to record a reception. Ivory averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per carry last week against the Texans, yet he was handed the ball just 8 times. The Jets were in catch up mode for much of the second half, but Ivory playing just 17 snaps is unacceptable. Bilal Powell was heavily involved in the passing game, seeing 7 targets and catching 5-for-67 yards. He also had 4 carries for 22 yards. Stevan Ridley looked like Andre Williams out there, taking a combined 5 touches for negative 5 yards.

The Dolphins just allowed Darren McFadden and Robert Turbin to combine for 164 yards rushing. They are a bottom five unit when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 138.6 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. The Jets’ once promising season is quickly slipping away. Look for them to return to what works and pound Ivory in this extremely favorable matchup.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Chris Ivory: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 80 rec yds
Eric Decker: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Redskins - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Giants have had two long weeks to dwell on their crushing loss to the Patriots, which was the second time they’ve lost by the exact score of 27-26 this season. The Giants should be fired up coming out of the bye as they travel to Washington to face a Redskins team that was just embarrassed by the Panthers. Cam Newton eviscerated the Redskins pass defense, throwing for 246 yards and 5 touchdowns. Newton’s passing success bodes well for Eli Manning this week. Manning has been a QB1 in all non-divisional matchups. While he’s struggled within the division, his lone quality performance came against these Redskins back in Week 3, where he threw for 279 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs. Manning has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but three games. Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle both had strong games when these teams last met and both found the end zone.

The Redskins are in the midst of a brutal stretch of opposing QBs. Since their bye, they’ve faced Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton. Their next two opposing QBs are Eli Manning and Tony Romo Matt Cassel. While the Redskins are only allowing 234.1 passing yards per game, they have allowed 20 passing touchdowns and have particularly struggled with better QBs (no surprise there). With the Giants well rested and the Redskins’ season beginning to slip away, the Giants passing attack is as good of a bet as any this week.

Running Game Thoughts: We didn’t have to care about the Giants running game last week since the team did not play, but that really wasn’t a change from when they do play. The Giants rushing attack has been irrelevant for almost the entire season and remains so this week. Rashad Jennings hasn’t topped 13 carries or 63 yards all season and hasn’t run for a touchdown since Week 1. My thoughts on Andre Williams are well documented by now in that I think he’s the worst running back to get any relevant playing time in the NFL. Shane Vereen remains unpredictable, which unfortunately renders him completely unreliable. At this point in the fantasy season, if you are concerned about Shane Vereen, you are probably looking to avoid bottom of the standings penalties. Vereen leads the Giants backfield in touchdowns with three on the season (all through the air), but it has been impossible to predict what weeks he will be relevant.

In their previous matchup against the Redskins, Vereen handled six carries for 23 yards and was nowhere to be seen in the passing game. The Redskins have been deplorable against the run, but none of the Giants backs are talented enough to exploit it. Sure, it’s possible one of them can break off a big run, but you’re not starting any running back where the only hope for production is a big play. Avoid them all.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 280 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 40 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: As expected, one week after torching one of the worst defenses we’ve ever seen (Saints), Cousins came crashing down to Earth against one of the league’s best defenses. Cousins was efficient in completing 22 of his 30 passes, but he threw for just 207 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT against Carolina. The biggest positive from last week’s beat down was DeSean Jackson torching a secondary for his first touchdown of the season. He has been looking healthier by the week and appears to be returning to being the top option on this offense. Jackson is never truly reliable on a weekly basis, but you knew that when you drafted him. He will be a WR1 or a WR4. Guessing when he will hit the WR1 mark is a fool’s errand. I guess I will be the fool this week. DJax loves to troll the Giants and was probably very upset he missed the opportunity earlier this season. Now at home and healthy, if the Redskins are good for nothing else this week, I think Jackson has a big game, especially with Jordan Reed apparently nursing yet another injury (he will likely play through his sprained MCL, but obviously will be at less than 100%).

The return of Prince Amukamara does concern me a bit, but I’d like to think he’ll need a game or two to get back into the swing of things. The Giants are the only team in the league allowing over 300 yards passing per game (309.9), which helps explain the 39 passes of 20-plus yards they have allowed. Surprisingly, they’ve been quite adept at forcing interceptions (14 on the year and one behind Carolina for best in the league) despite their inability to get to the quarterback, having recorded only 12 sacks this season. The Captain will have every opportunity to light it up this week, and while he did eclipse 300 yards passing in their previous encounter, he threw just one touchdown against two interceptions. The Giants have won five straight against the Redskins with the last four coming by double digits. Although it’s a favorable matchup for everyone, Jackson and Reed are the only Redskins worth starting this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game is certainly the worst in the league, but the Redskins certainly give them a run for their money. Sometimes words cannot describe how bad something is. In this case, they can. Alfred Morris handled two carries and totaled zero yards. Matt Jones handled five carries and totaled zero yards. He also fumbled…again. Chris Thompson handled four carries and totaled ten yards. The only reason the Redskins running game isn’t as bad as the Giants is because at least Matt Jones has had isolated huge performances. He has shown he is capable. The problem is it is impossible to trust him because his floor is so low. Jones led this backfield in carries when these teams met previously, but, of course, he fumbled. I remember that fumble particularly well. It was an off tackle carry that was an easy touchdown if Jones didn’t have the ball punched out right before the goal line for a touchback. Chris Thompson dominated snaps from that point forward. The Giants are a far cry from the team that fluked its way to the league’s top rushing defense early in the season, but the Redskins aren’t the team to exploit it. Avoid every running back in this game.

Projections:
Kirk Cousins: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Matt Jones: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Chris Thompson: 10 rush yds, 40 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 40 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Giants 30, Redskins 20 ^ Top

Raiders at Titans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Raiders’ passing game has had a number of pleasant surprises for fantasy owners, with Derek Carr among the top-10 quarterbacks in scoring, and Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper each ranking in the top-20 in scoring at wideout. Unfortunately, the trio was a collective bust last week against Detroit, though one has to believe that Cooper won’t repeat his dismal four-yard performance, and each is at least a decent play this week against Tennessee.

The Titans have some contrasting numbers against the pass, making them a bit difficult to figure out. They are third in the league in pass defense, 15th in touchdown throws surrendered, third in sacks, and 11th in interceptions, but are 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Titans rank 16th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks and have allowed the 13th-fewest points to wideouts, but have also given up sixth-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray was a hot name going into fantasy drafts despite a limited body of work, and he has not disappointed. He is currently seventh in the league with 706 rushing yards and 10th at his position in fantasy scoring. Murray is now an every-week fantasy starter, and should be thought of as a RB2 this week against the Titans.

Tennessee is tied for 17th in the NFL in run defense, and is 13th in yards per carry allowed, but is 23rd in rushing scores permitted. They have also held backs to the fewest receiving yards in the league and have not allowed a player at that position to catch a touchdown, which has limited the number of fantasy points they’ve allowed to runners, and is a big reason why they have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to backs.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs
Latavius Murray: 75 rush yds, 1 TD
Amari Cooper: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Mychal Rivera: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota continues to be up and down as a passer, having thrown four touchdown passes in a game on two occasions, but failing to toss a score in three others, including his last two. The rookie doesn’t have many weapons at his disposal, and even with Kendall Wright (knee) likely to play this week, the only legit fantasy option coming from the Titans’ passing game is tight end Delanie Walker, who had over 100 receiving yards last week and is a TE1 this week against a Raiders team that has been dreadful versus opposing tight ends this season.

Only two teams have allowed more passing yards than Oakland this year, but they rank 11th in touchdown passes given up and are 15th in yards per attempt allowed, sacks, and interceptions. The Raiders are in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, but have permitted the seventh-most points to quarterbacks and the fourth-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Antonio Andrews racked up 78 yards last week against the Jaguars, and is Tennessee’s leading rusher, but far from a guy fantasy owners can consistently have much faith in. Andrews is averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry and has gone six consecutive games without a touchdown, but thinking of him as a flex play this week is realistic based on his match-up against Oakland. Dexter McCluster suffered a sprained knee in Week 11 and will miss this game meaning more work for David Cobb and expect Bishop Sankey to be at least active on Sunday.

The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in run defense, and 26th in yards per carry allowed, but are 13th in rushing scores ceded. They were actually having a decent enough season against backs until Weeks 9 and 10, when DeAngelo Williams and Adrian Peterson combined to run for 373 yards and three touchdowns against them. Those two contests, and the fact that Oakland has permitted the seventh-most receiving yards in the league to running backs, are large parts of why the team has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to players at that position.

Projections:
Marcus Mariota: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Antonio Andrews: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Kendall Wright: 50 rec yds
Harry Douglas: 40 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Raiders 21, Titans 17 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston recorded his best day as a pro last week against the Eagles, throwing five touchdowns to five different receivers in Tampa’s win. He had gone two games without throwing a touchdown before the dynamic output and has jumped ahead of the likes of Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson in fantasy scoring. One of Winston’s scoring passes went to Mike Evans, and though it was only Evans’ second touchdown of the year, he has been consistently racking up yards, and is one of the better fantasy options this week among receivers due to his match-up with Indianapolis. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins continues to practice on a limited basis but has yet to be cleared for contact. There were rumors last week that he would be available in Week 12, but his status remains in limbo.

The good news for the Colts’ pass defense is that they rank fifth in the NFL in interceptions. The bad news? Pretty much everything else. They’ve given up the fourth-most passing yards, are 23rd in touchdown throws surrendered, and 30th in sacks. Indy has ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the seventh-most points to wide receivers, and the 13th-most points to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin ran wild last week against the Eagles, amassing 235 rushing yards after a fairly stagnant previous three weeks. The only issue concerning Martin is his lack of touchdowns, as he has gone four straight games without a score. Nonetheless, he has to be considered a fantasy starter this week against a Colts team who has had issues stopping the run. Charles Sims remains a factor in the running game notching 13 touches last week gaining 69 yards and 1 score.

Indianapolis is 21st in the league in run defense, 23rd in rushing scores given up, and 15th in yards per carry allowed. They have been better in their last couple of games (though it helped that Devonta Freeman was knocked out early last week), but have still permitted the ninth-most fantasy points in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Jameis Winston: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Doug Martin: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Charles Sims: 30 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Mike Evans: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 65 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Colts beat the Falcons last week with Matt Hasselbeck under center, though there was nothing for fantasy owners to get excited about. Each of Hasselbeck’s touchdown throws went to reserve running back Ahmad Bradshaw, T.Y. Hilton had just 21 yards, and Donte Moncrief picked up only 41. Normally, Hasselbeck’s status as the Colts’ starter would be a signal for fantasy owners to take a pass on the team’s receivers, but the Buccaneers have given up multitudes of passing scores, making Hilton and Moncrief viable plays this week.

Tampa Bay is 13th in the league against the pass, but only the Saints have given up more passing scores. The Bucs have average numbers in most other pass defense statistics including fantasy points surrendered to tight ends, but have allowed the 10th-most points to quarterbacks and 13th-most points to wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore is a bit banged up with a knee malady, but he still managed to come away with 80 total yards last week against the Falcons. The veteran has been a RB2/Flex option each week, and this week is no different, though fantasy owners should veer more towards the flex side as Gore takes on a decent Tampa rush defense. Ahmad Bradshaw got more of the workload (13 touches) last week with Gore nicked up so keep your eye on their usage rates moving forward. Dan Herron has been re-signed and will serve as the No.3 running back.

The Buccaneers have the NFL’s 14th-ranked run defense, and they’re sixth in the league in rushing scores allowed and fifth in yards per carry given up. Despite these numbers, they are only slightly better than league average in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs because they have allowed four receiving touchdowns to players at that position, which is the same number of rushing scores they’ve given up to backs.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 210 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INTs
Frank Gore: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw: 30 rush yds, 25 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Donte Moncrief: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 35 rec yds

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Colts 21 ^ Top

Saints at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints no longer have the most fantasy-friendly offense in the league, though they remain a decent source of points, starting with quarterback Drew Brees. He isn’t providing a bounty of touchdowns (save his seven-TD performance against New York, obviously), but Brees remains a QB1, and has an obvious rapport with wideout Brandin Cooks and tight end Ben Watson. Brees and Cooks should be fantasy starters every week regardless of the opponent, but Watson is more of a match-up based play, and he’s probably better left on the sidelines this week against the Texans.

Houston has the NFL’s fifth-ranked pass defense, is 15th in both passing touchdowns ceded and interceptions, and 10th in both sacks and yards per attempt allowed. The Texans are 17th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, but have surrendered the 11th-fewest points to both wideouts and tight ends. Brees’ top three fantasy games this season have all come at home so temper your expectations as New Orleans travels to Houston.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram remains a top-five back in fantasy scoring and continues to put up points both on the ground and via reception. He should be fresh coming off a bye and only saw eight touches in Week 10 (due to the Saints getting blown out by Washington), and is a very solid play this week against Houston.

The Texans rank 20th in the NFL the three major run defense categories – yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, and yards per carry surrendered. They have been better against the run in recent contests, but have still given up the 12th-most fantasy points in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs
Mark Ingram: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Brandin Cooks: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Willie Snead: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Ben Watson: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer makes his return as the team’s starter this week after sitting out with a concussion during the Texans’ Week 11 win over the Jets. He isn’t the most consistent passer in terms of accuracy, but any quarterback going up against New Orleans is at least a QB2, and Hoyer also has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, making Hoyer a viable QB1. Hopkins had 118 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week, leads all wide receivers in fantasy scoring, and should absolutely immolate New Orleans this week.

The Saints have inarguably the NFL’s worst pass defense and one of the worst in league history up to this point, which is why they fired their defensive coordinator, though whether or not that makes a different is yet to be seen. They are 31st in passing yards surrendered, have given up seven more touchdown throws than any other team, and are last in yards per attempt allowed, interceptions, and quarterback rating allowed. No team has given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks or tight ends than New Orleans, and they’ve also permitted the eighth-most points to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Blue managed 58 yards last week against the Jets, but it took him 21 carries (an average of 2.8 YPC) to do so. He did score via reception, but Blue is highly inconsistent and incapable of being trusted – most weeks. This week, he gets to go up against the Saints, and that has meant fantasy points aplenty for most backs, making Blue a flex play this week.

New Orleans has a run defense that isn’t as putrid as their pass defense, but is still downright bad. The Saints are 29th in the league against the run and dead last in yards per carry allowed, though they’re 13th in rushing scores ceded, mostly because everyone just throws the ball into the end zone against them. No team has given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs, and only the Chargers have allowed more fantasy points to players at that position.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 265 pass yds, 3 TDs
Alfred Blue: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
DeAndre Hopkins: 125 rec yds, 2 TDs
Nate Washington: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Ryan Griffin: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Texans 28, Saints 24 ^ Top

Vikings at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: As far as fantasy football goes, there is very, very little to get excited about concerning Minnesota’s passing game. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown multiple touchdowns in only one game this season, tight end Kyle Rudolph catches an occasional touchdown but picks up very few yards (with rare exceptions such as last week against the Packers), and Mike Wallace has been a bust. That pretty much leaves only Stefon Diggs as a fantasy option, though his match-up this week is a poor one, and there are no Vikings pass-catchers (or throwers) who should be used as they take on Atlanta.

The Falcons are 18th in the NFL in pass defense and are tied with the Giants for fewest sacks, but rank eighth or better in touchdown passes given up, yards per pass attempt allowed, interceptions, and quarterback rating allowed. Atlanta has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but has given up the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks and the second-fewest to wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: It was completely reasonable for fantasy owners to believe that Adrian Peterson, after missing almost an entire season and hitting age 30, was due for a rapid decline. Simply put, that hasn’t happened. Peterson is currently the only back in the league with more than 1,000 rushing yards, and is obviously a RB1 in any circumstance, including this week against the Falcons.

Atlanta leads the NFL in run defense, is third in yards per carry allowed, and though they rank 30th in rushing scores surrendered, no running back has reached the end zone against them since Week 6. The Falcons have also allowed the second-most receiving yards in the league to running backs, and for the year have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Adrian Peterson: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Stefon Diggs: 55 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 30 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 15 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The good news for Matt Ryan’s fantasy owners is that he threw a season-high three touchdowns last week against the Colts. The not so good news is that he also tossed a season-high three interceptions. Ryan’s 15-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio simply isn’t good enough for fantasy owners that envisioned him as a weekly QB1, and for whatever reason he isn’t finding Julio Jones in the end zone. Jones still had nine catches for 160 yards against Indy, but just six of his league-high 89 receptions have gone for touchdowns. He’s obviously a fantasy starter this week but does have a difficult match-up against the Vikings. Leonard Hankerson (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game. If he sits, Jacob Tamme becomes a viable TE consideration.

Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in pass defense, touchdown throws permitted, and yards per pass attempt given up, though they are just 22nd in interceptions. The Vikings are in the middle of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but they’ve surrendered the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers, and the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman was knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, and Tevin Coleman replaced him with little success. Freeman is unlikely to play this week and the Falcons are practicing as if Tevin Coleman will get the start. Coleman (17-48) was uninspiring last week against the Colts but volume alone puts him on the RB2 radar. He has only 1 catch out of the backfield on the season which is alarming and the matchup against the Vikings is less than ideal.

The Vikings are tied for 17th in the league in run defense while ranking sixth in rushing scores allowed despite being 24th in yards per carry surrendered. They are one of five teams to have held opposing backs to no touchdown catches, and as such have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points in the league to runners.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 235 pass yds, 1 TD
Tevin Coleman: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Julio Jones: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 35 rec yds
Jacob Tamme: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Falcons 20, Vikings 17 ^ Top

Chargers at Jaguars - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers has put together a very good season, despite what happened during last week’s pummeling at the hands of the Chiefs. Still, it should be noted that he has only one touchdown since Keenan Allen went down, and with Malcolm Floyd also injured, the team is low on pass-catchers. Antonio Gates has probably been better than most expected, but fellow tight end Ladarius Green gets his share of looks, and without Allen, there are no reliable weekly fantasy options, save Rivers, and that holds true this week against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is 25th in the NFL against the pass, 15th in passing scores allowed, 19th in yards per attempt, and 26th in interceptions. The Jags have surrendered the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing wideouts, but have given up the 10th-most points to tight ends, and the eighth-most points to quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: Without a touchdown to his name, Melvin Gordon is far down the list of running backs when it comes to fantasy scoring. The Chargers have only a pair of rushing scores this year, and Danny Woodhead has both. He is also tops among running backs in receiving yards, and ranks a surprising 12th in fantasy scoring at his position. At some point Gordon is going to find the end zone, but due to his receiving prowess, Woodhead is the more attractive fantasy option this week against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are ninth in the league against the run and lead the NFL in yards per carry allowed, but are 23rd in rushing touchdowns permitted. They’ve also surrendered the eighth-most receiving yards to backs, and as such have given up the 13th-most fantasy points to players at that position.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs
Melvin Gordon: 65 rush yds
Danny Woodhead: 40 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Johnson: 55 rec yds
Dontrelle Inman: 45 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Ladarius Green: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas have each proven themselves to be fantasy assets, though Thomas hasn’t shown the consistency to be used on a weekly basis. Thomas is useful based on the right match-up, and that’s the case for him this week against San Diego, who has had their struggles containing tight ends.

The Chargers are 17th in the league in pass defense and 11th in passing touchdowns surrendered, though they rank 31st in yards per attempt given up, 30th in quarterback rating allowed, 26th in interceptions, and 23rd in sacks. San Diego has also permitted the 11th-most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends, but has held quarterbacks to the 10th-fewest points, and wideouts to the seventh-fewest points.

Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon has had a couple of decent games this year, but it’s unlikely fantasy owners were willing to do much more than occasionally place him as their flex option. The rookie is approaching 600 rushing yards, but has just a single rushing score for the year. That should change this week, as Yeldon can confidently be called a RB2 against a lousy Chargers run defense. Yeldon has seen at least 17 touches in his last four games and could be in for a big workload this week.

San Diego has been utterly horrid against the run this season, ranking 26th in the league in rush defense, and second-to-last in both rushing scores allowed and yards per carry surrendered. They have given up the fifth-most receiving yards in the NFL to running backs, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to backs than the Chargers.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 250 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
T.J. Yeldon: 90 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Robinson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 45 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 55 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Jaguars 21, Chargers 20 ^ Top

Bills @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor was one of the hottest breakout quarterbacks at the beginning of the 2015 season, but he hasn’t been the same since suffering a knee injury which held him out for two games. Since returning, Taylor has played three games, all against divisional opponents, but has failed to exceed 15 fantasy points (standard scoring). His passing numbers have been lower, but perhaps the biggest difference is that his rushing numbers have taken a significant tumble since his knee injury. Taylor has rushed for just 57 total yards in his past three games combined, a far cry from the 40-plus yard games he put up in three of his first five contests this season.

To make matters worse, Taylor is now dealing with a sore throwing shoulder, which should give fantasy owners some pause as he enters into a tough road game against the Chiefs. Kansas City started the season off slow, but they’ve been one of the most difficult defenses to pass against as of late. Over their past five games combined, the Chiefs have conceded just four total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, including holding Philip Rivers and the Chargers to just 178 yards and no touchdowns. During those five games, no quarterback has even reached double digit fantasy points against the Chiefs. While Taylor does bring the added dynamic of his running ability, that won’t help his receivers, namely Sammy Watkins who has been awful, catching just three passes in each of his past two games. Watkins’ 53 total yards in Weeks 10 and 11 combined are unacceptable from a fantasy standpoint and they bring serious doubt as to whether or not he is even a viable WR2 in a tough matchup like this. Certainly the skill is there, but the targets haven’t been as of late and he’s only had one big game so far in 2015. In addition, tight end Charles Clay has fallen out of most fantasy discussion as the tight end has not scored a touchdown since Week 3.

Running Game Thoughts: The “touchdown in every game” streak had to come to an end at some point, but it was a bit surprising to see rookie running back Karlos Williams get so little work in what was a competitive game against the Patriots in Week 11. Williams got just six carries for 11 yards in the contest and was a non-factor in the passing game, which meant he finished with just one fantasy point on the day. Meanwhile starter LeSean McCoy has been utilized like a “workhorse,” taking at least 16 carries in each of his past five games since returning from injury. McCoy was the only Bill to get into the end zone this past week against the Patriots and he has now averaged nearly 15 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) since getting back on the field in Week 6. McCoy’s PPR value may finally be increasing as well. He hadn’t caught more than three passes in any of the first nine weeks of the season, but he has now caught five and six passes in back-to-back weeks.

In Week 12, McCoy and Williams will be running against a Kansas City defense that has been great against the run this season. Aside from the one game where they allowed four touchdowns to the Bengals back in Week 4, the Chiefs have been dominant against opposing running backs. They’ve only given up a total of one rushing touchdown in their other nine games combined. Worse yet for the Bills backs is that the Chiefs’ defense appears to only be getting better as running backs have rushed for an average of just 57 yards per game over their past three contests. Not only that, but they’ve been great at slowing down running backs in the passing game as they’ve given up the second-fewest receptions to opposing running backs in the league. It’s going to be hard to sit a red hot LeSean McCoy, but Williams shouldn’t be in many lineups this week and be sure to temper your expectations on McCoy.

Projections:
Tyrod Taylor: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
LeSean McCoy: 70 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Karlos Williams: 30 rush yds
Sammy Watkins: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 40 rec yds
Charles Clay: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Kansas City is making a late season push, but it might be too little, too late for Alex Smith to put up high end quarterback numbers. Smith has never been much of a fantasy quarterback, but his one saving grace is that he does consistently put up solid, unspectacular numbers. Smith has scored at least 13 fantasy points (standard scoring) in nine of his 10 games this season, but has only exceeded 18 points twice. These consistent solid performance has allowed him to be the No. 13 fantasy quarterback in standard scoring formats, but none of his receivers have been particularly great. Jeremy Maclin is the Chiefs’ top receiver, but he’s ranked just 34th at the position on the year. His production has really dropped off in recent weeks, as well. Maclin has made just nine receptions over his past three games combined, which has made him hard to start even in PPR formats.

The Chiefs passing game does have a fairly tough matchup this week as they host a Buffalo defense that just held Tom Brady to a 13 point fantasy day in Week 11. Buffalo struggled against the pass early in the year, but they’ve really caught on in recent weeks, having held opposing QB’s to an average of just 12.5 fantasy points per game. One player who might have a particularly tough time in this matchup is tight end Travis Kelce. The Bills have given up just 72 yards receiving and no touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past four games combined. Kelce himself has been on a cold streak as of late as well, having failed to exceed 50 receiving yards or score a touchdown in either of his past two games. The Kansas City passing game just doesn’t put up enough points consistently to make their players viable options other than in deep formats. The only exception is Kelce, whose consistently solid numbers have made him a mid-level TE1.

Running Game Thoughts: A hamstring injury in Week 11 cost Charcandrick West what could have been a big game in a blowout Kansas City win over San Diego. West was injured early in the contest, leading the way for Spencer Ware to step in and have a monster game of his own as he rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries. With Ware now seemingly locked in as the handcuff to West, fantasy owners would be wise to snag Ware off of waivers, particularly here in Week 12 as we don’t yet know whether or not West will be suiting up. West has been a fantasy RB1 since taking over the Chiefs’ starting running back role when Jamaal Charles went out and while West is more talented than Ware, it’s the volume that we like. The Chiefs are a run-first offense seemingly no matter who is lined up in the backfield, so they’re relatively safe with a high floor and a high ceiling as well.

Fantasy owners need to pay close attention to the inactive reports on Sunday morning as whoever starts for the Chiefs could be in line for a nice game against a Buffalo defense that has given up an average of almost 100 exactly yards on the ground over their past five contests. While they’ve only given up a multiple-rushing touchdown game once this year, the Bills have consistently given up points to the position, including nine straight games of double-digit production (standard scoring) to opposing running backs. If West is available, he should be considered a low-end RB1 while Ware would be a solid RB2 if he gets the start.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Charcandrick West: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Spencer Ware: 20 rush yds
Jeremy Maclin: 50 rec yds
Albert Wilson: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Travis Kelce: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bills 16 ^ Top

Cardinals @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cardinals and quarterback Carson Palmer continued their hot streak in Week 11 with a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer surpassed the 300-yard-mark for the third straight contest while throwing a whopping four touchdowns - his sixth game of three or more touchdowns this season. Palmer is now the No. 3 overall quarterback in fantasy football and his consistency has been incredible. He’s had 16 or more fantasy points in every game, including five games of 20 or more fantasy points. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald also continues to play at a high level as he is currently the fifth-highest scoring wide receiver in standard scoring formats.

Fitzgerald has been limited in practice with an ankle but is expected to play this week in what could be one of the best matchups he will face all season. The 49ers have been awful against opposing passing games in 2015 as they’ve given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to QB’s on the season. Fitzgerald had one of his biggest games of the season when he faced this San Francisco defense back in Week 3 as he caught nine passes for a season-high 134 yards and two touchdowns. Palmer also eclipsed 300 yards in that contest, which should mean that this is a relatively safe matchup for this duo. Fitzgerald’s fellow wideouts John Brown and Michael Floyd could also make for decent WR3/Flex options in this matchup. Floyd missed Week 11 with a hamstring injury and he’s been limited in practice, but he had been one of the league’s hottest fantasy players over his previous four games. Head coach Bruce Arians mentioned that Floyd will be active only if he sees that the receiver is able to run at full speed prior to Sunday. Brown, meanwhile, has lacked the big games this season but has typically been a solid fantasy contributor when he’s been on the field. He’s dealt with a few injuries, but played through a hamstring injury in Week 11 and should be good to go in Week 12.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson struggled in a tough matchup against a good Bengals run defense in Week 11 as he rushed for just 63 yards on 18 carries, marking the second straight game in which he has failed to produce quality rushing numbers. Johnson had ripped off three 100-plus yard games in his previous four games, but his age might be starting to show late in the season. He’s still third in the league in rushing yardage, but Johnson has scored just three touchdowns this season and is more of a volume back than he is the explosive threat that he once was earlier in his career.

Johnson does, however, have an excellent matchup here in Week 12 as he will be running against a San Francisco defense that he absolutely abused back in Week 3. Johnson’s 150 total yards in that contest was his highest total of the season and he also scored two of his three total touchdowns in that one contest. The 49ers haven’t fared much better against other running backs, either, as they’ve given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year. This past week it was Seattle’s backup running back, Thomas Rawls, who torched the 49ers for over 200 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The 49ers have given up at least 12 fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing running backs in all but one game this season and they’ve also given up an astonishing six games of 22 or more points to the position. Needless to say, Johnson is a strong RB2 or even potential RB1 this week in what is arguably the best matchup he’ll face all season.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 300 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Chris Johnson: 120 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Andre Ellington: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 100 rec yds, 2 TD
John Brown: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds
Daniel Fells: 20 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s never a good sign for a team when your most consistent player is Blaine Gabbert, but that should give you a good idea as to how messed up the 49ers franchise is at the current moment. Gabbert, however, has actually not been so bad since taking over the starting job from Colin Kaepernick back in Week 9. In his two starts, Gabbert has accumulated 14 and 16 fantasy points while throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for an impressive 54 yards. Anquan Boldin is the only fantasy relevant wide receiver on the roster on the moment as he made his return to the lineup in Week 11, catching five passes for 93 yards. Tight end Vance McDonald also stepped up this past week, making four receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown but he appears to be splitting looks with fellow tight end Garrett Celek who actually made two touchdown receptions himself back in Week 9.

With Gabbert and the 49ers offense struggling as a whole, though, now might not be a great time to begin trusting the San Francisco players to get the job done from a fantasy standpoint. The Cardinals have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and while they struggled against Andy Dalton and the Bengals a week ago, this same Arizona unit held Kaepernick to just 67 yards while intercepting him four times back in Week 3. Certainly Gabbert has been better than Kaepernick, but this is still not an ideal matchup and Gabbert should really only be considered as a QB2 option. Boldin might be the only player worth starting in normal leagues, but he was held completely in check when these teams met in Week 3, as he made just two catches for 16 yards. Boldin will likely see a lot of Patrick Peterson which really limits his upside as anything other than a desperation WR3.

Running Game Thoughts: With Carlos Hyde still recovering from a foot injury and having not practiced all week, Shaun Draughn appears to be in line to get some more work here in Week 12. Draughn has been decent, but not spectacular in relief of Hyde, rushing for 95 yards over a two game stretch while adding 78 yards as a receiver. Draughn is not a spectacularly talented running back and his upside is fairly limited in an offense that rarely puts up points. Still, he is getting the lion’s share of the carries, which makes him more trustworthy than a lot of other potential options here in Week 12.

Draughn’s usage in the passing game, especially this past week when he made eight receptions, has to give fantasy owners some hope for production in what could otherwise be a difficult matchup. The Cardinals have held opposing running backs to fewer than 65 rushing yards in seven of their 10 contests so far this season. Where they’ve been a little more susceptible, however, is allowing catches to opposing running backs. The Cardinals have given up 59 receptions for 563 yards and two touchdowns to opposing running backs so far this season and with Draughn getting targeted as much as he is by Gabbert, there is reason to think that he might be usable as a low-end RB2 or Flex option.

Projections:
Blaine Gabbert: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Shaun Draughn: 50 rush yds, 50 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 40 red yds
Vance McDonald: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cardinals 31, 49ers 13 ^ Top

Steelers @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been a bumpy ride for Ben Roethlisberger here in 2015, but the Steelers QB has certainly produced some big games when he’s been on the field. Unfortunately one of his biggest games of the season came just prior to the Steelers’ Week 11 bye when he came off the bench as an emergency backup quarterback to throw for an astonishing 379 yards and three touchdowns with one interception against the Browns. Roethlisberger was noticeably hampered by a foot injury, but now that he has had an additional week to get healthy, Roethlisberger should be back in most fantasy lineups here in Week 12. Along with the return of Big Ben has come some impressive games for wide receiver Antonio Brown. Brown has been an absolute beast this season when Roethlisberger has been on the field and he has accumulated nearly 600 yards receiving and three touchdowns over just his past four games. Fellow wideout Martavis Bryant has also been getting it done as of late, especially this past week when he caught six passes for 178 yards and a touchdown.

This high-powered Pittsburgh passing game has had an extra week to prepare, but in Week 12 they will be up against arguably the best secondary in the league as they head to Seattle to face the Seahawks. Seattle has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, but they have actually struggled a bit over the past two weeks, giving up 627 passing yards and four total touchdowns to Carson Palmer and Blaine Gabbert. There is some reason to hesitate as the Seahawks are undoubtedly a tough defense, but the Pittsburgh offense has been good enough this season that benching either Brown or Bryant seems like a mistake and Roethlisberger is capable of putting up multiple scores against any defense.

Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams has fully taken over the starting running back job after Le’Veon Bell went down with a season-ending ACL injury and fantasy owners have been loving what they’ve received. In his four starts this season, Williams has averaged 107 rushing yards while averaging over 20 receiving yards per game and scoring a total of five touchdowns. Needless to say, he’s been a rock solid RB1 when he’s been given the opportunity and given his heavy workload, that appears likely to continue through the remainder of the season.

It won’t be an easy road to another RB1 performance here in Week 12, though, as Williams will be up against one of the league’s premier run defenses in Seattle. The Seahawks have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs so far in 2015 and they’ve held the position to 10 or fewer fantasy points (standard scoring) in seven of their 10 games. Worse yet, they’ve given up just three touchdowns to the position on the year. Williams’ matchup against the Seahawks is definitely a cause for a concern, but the volume he’s been getting and his usage in the passing game gives him a solid floor even in tough matchups. It seems unlikely that he’ll have a huge breakout game, but he should be viewed as a solid RB2.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
DeAngelo Williams: 70 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Martavis Bryant: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson finally woke up from his season-long slumber this past week in what was a breakout fantasy performance for he and the Seahawks offense. Wilson threw for 260 yards on the day, but it was his three touchdowns and no interceptions that should have fantasy owners interested. Wilson hadn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since all the way back in Week 2 and it was his first time this season that he had thrown for three scores in a game. Wilson’s rushing numbers remain relatively consistent at between 30 to 50 yards per game, but he hasn’t yet made a trip into the end zone as a runner which has limited him to be just the No. 12-scoring fantasy quarterback so far this year. Wilson’s top target continues to be veteran Doug Baldwin who contributes decent enough numbers to finish as a WR3 most weeks but lacks the upside to be deployed in most formats. This past week, though, it was rookie Tyler Lockett who had his first multi-touchdown game when he caught two scores from Wilson in the blowout win over the 49ers.

Wilson and tight end Jimmy Graham continue to lack chemistry, however, and unfortunately Graham is the only pass-catcher in this offense who is really a fantasy option on a week-to-week basis. The unit will have an opportunity to put up some decent numbers here in Week 12, however, as they will be at home against a Pittsburgh defense that just got done giving up 372 yards through the air to Johnny Manziel in Week 11 and a 301-yard, four touchdown day to Derek Carr back in Week 9. The Steelers have certainly been struggling against the pass and with their run defense performing the way it has been, it would not be at all surprising to see the Seahawks rely heavily on Wilson and the passing game in this matchup. If there’s a game when the Seahawks need Graham to step up, it’ll be this one as the Steelers have been beaten up by opposing tight ends. They’ve given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the year and tight ends have scored against them in back-to-back weeks heading into this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: No Marshawn Lynch? No problem. Rookie Thomas Rawls is back in the lineup and he is looking like an absolute monster right now. Rawls rushed for 209 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks’ win over the 49ers in Week 11. That number is more than Lynch has ever rushed for in a single game as a member of the Seahawks. Rawls also caught three passes for 46 yards and scored a touchdown as a receiver. With Lynch having underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia, the Seahawks will look to the young tailback to again shoulder the brunt of the workload here in Week 12. Fred Jackson, meanwhile, will serve as a change-of-pace back and should continue to see work as a third down back, but his fantasy value is very limited unless Rawls, too, goes out with an injury.

Rawls’ Week 11 breakout performance had the fantasy world buzzing, but it’s worth considering that his huge game came against one of the league’s worst defenses. It won’t be that easy here in Week 12 as he will be up against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than any team in the league so far this season. Pittsburgh has been completely dominating opposing backs and no game was more impressive than what they did this past week when they held the Browns’ running backs to just five total rushing yards on the day. While it’s true that the Pittsburgh run defense has benefited from teams opting to pass more than run against them, this is still an underrated unit who has allowed just two total touchdowns to the position on the year. Rawls should still be in most lineups given the run-heavy nature of the Seattle offense, but try to temper your expectations of him in this very difficult matchup.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 30 rush yds
Thomas Rawls: 80 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds
Tyler Lockett: 40 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Steelers 20 ^ Top

Patriots @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Patriots remained undefeated with a close win over the Bills on Monday Night Football, but for the first time this season, it appears that Tom Brady and the New England passing game might be starting to waver a bit. Brady failed to throw for multiple touchdowns for the first time all season in the Monday night contest and he also threw what was just his fourth interception of the season. Certainly Brady’s 13 point fantasy day wasn’t horrible, but it was a bit concerning due to how it happened. The Bills seemed to gameplan around limiting Rob Gronkowski, which meant other receivers had to step up. With Julian Edelman injured, it was up to Danny Amendola to fill the role as Brady’s go-to receiver, which he did admirably, catching nine passes for 117 yards before he also went down with an injury. Brandon LaFell did make four catches for 66 yards on the day and a few other pass catchers made some contributions, but this team just cannot afford to lose another playmaker in their offense.

The Patriots’ receivers were already weak to begin with, but if Amendola is unable to play - which seems at least possible - it could be a long day for Brady and the passing game as they go up against a Denver defense that might just be the best overall unit in the league. Denver has given up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and their 9.7 points per game average is a full 3 points per game fewer than the next-closest team, St. Louis. This defense has been harassing opposing quarterbacks all season with their pass rush which has certainly helped their secondary look even better than it already is and the unit has given up just eight passing touchdowns on the year while forcing 10 interceptions. Brady is absolutely capable of having a quality game even in a tough matchup, but this is as difficult as it gets. If the Broncos are able to take away Gronkowski as the Bills did in Week 11, we might finally see Brady have a truly bad fantasy day.

Running Game Thoughts: With Dion Lewis out for the year, the Patriots needed to find a player who could complement the bruising style of LeGarrette Blount. They might have found it in James White. White scored a touchdown both as a runner and as a receiver in Week 11 despite touching the ball just four times. What’s important, though, is that he was on the field for almost one third of the Patriots’ offensive plays. Even that much usage in an offense like this can translate into fantasy production. Still, Blount is the player to own in this offense and should continue getting plenty of work, especially in games where the Patriots get out to an early lead.

The Denver defense has been good enough to keep them in most games this season despite some truly atrocious quarterback play and they’ll need to do it again here in Week 12 if they hope to walk away with a win. The Broncos’ pass defense has been immaculate this season, which likely means that the Patriots will be looking to run the ball and control the clock more than usual in this game. If there’s a place to attack the Broncos defense, it seems to be on the ground as the unit currently ranks 15th in fantasy points given up to opposing backs. While they’ve given up an average of just 75 rushing yards per game, the Broncos have allowed 12 total touchdowns to opposing running backs on the season, including at least one score in each of their past four games. They have, however, only given up one game of 100-plus rushing yards and that came all the way back in Week 2 against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs. This game will likely be a low-scoring affair, so don’t expect a huge performance from any player, but Blount does have a decent opportunity to get into the end zone in this game.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
LeGarrette Blount: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
James White : 10 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Danny Amendola: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 50 rec yds
Keshawn Martin: 30 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The quarterback controversy in Denver is over - at least for now - as reports have come in that Peyton Manning has been dealing with a plantar fascia tear and will miss at least the next few weeks. In the meantime, and perhaps even after Manning’s return, the Broncos will continue to look to Brock Osweiler, who has actually looked decent in the limited playing time he’s received. Osweiler started his first game this past week against the Bears, throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in a close road win. Oddly enough, in his first start, Osweiler became the first Broncos quarterback to not throw an interception in a game this season. With Emmanuel Sanders out, Osweiler spread his targets out, completing passes to eight different receivers, including touchdowns to Demaryius Thomas and Cody Latimer. Tight end Vernon Davis, who the Broncos acquired via trade before the deadline, finally showed up in Week 11 as he made a team high six receptions for 68 yards. Osweiler brings an interesting dynamic to the Broncos offense because while Manning was wildly inconsistent, he did benefit fantasy owners because he keyed in almost exclusively on his top two receivers, Thomas and Sanders. With Osweiler having not developed chemistry with those players yet, he might actually be more comfortable throwing to running backs, tight ends and even depth receivers like Latimer who he has had an opportunity to practice with on the second team offense.

If Osweiler can avoid falling into the trap of trying to compare himself to the future hall of famer playing across from him, he should have an opportunity for at least a decent game here in Week 12. The Patriots rank 12th in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks this season, but they’ve had moments of weakness even against some not-so-great QB’s. With the Broncos’ running game being very inconsistent, there’s a real possibility that Osweiler could end up throwing the ball 40-plus times in this game. If that happens, it would be very surprising if he and at least a couple of his receivers didn’t have quality fantasy days. Sanders should be back this week which will give the offense an added playmaker and could help make Osweiler a sneaky play for those looking for a streaming quarterback option.

Running Game Thoughts: The Denver running game has been a complete crapshoot through much of the season, but they continue to tantalize us with the occasional game where they look like the unit that was so productive in 2014. One of those games happened this past week when Ronnie Hillman rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries while C.J. Anderson added 12 carries for 59 yards of his own. That game comes just two weeks after a bafflingly awful day that these two backs had against the Colts when they combined for just 35 total rushing yards. The duo still continues to be wildly inconsistent as neither player has been able to rush for even 70 or more yards in back-to-back games in any contest this season, but it appears that the decision to allow Hillman to be the lead back has given both he and Anderson new life.

The duo will certainly be an important part of the game here in Week 12 as the Broncos host the Patriots in what many believe could be a preview of the AFC championship game. With Denver rolling out a young, inexperienced quarterback against a Bill Belichick-coached New England Patriots defense, there is a real possibility that the Broncos will opt to control the game as much as possible with their running game. Unfortunately, the Patriots have been excellent against the run so far this season, having given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game on the year. Of course, some of that has to do with the fact that they’ve also blown out quite a few teams, forcing the opposition to run the ball less than they otherwise might, but the 3.7 yards per carry they’re allowing is a good number no matter how it’s happening. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots choose to stack the box in order to take away the run, forcing Osweiler to put the game on his shoulders and try to outduel one of the league’s MVP candidates, Tom Brady.

Projections:
Brock Osweiler: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Ronnie Hillman: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
C.J. Anderson: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 65 rec yds
Cody Latimer: 20 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 45 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 30 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 24, Broncos 20 ^ Top