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Inside the Matchup
Week 11
11/18/15; Updted: 11/20/15

By: Sal Marcoccio | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



TEN @ JAC | IND @ ATL | NYJ @ HOU | WAS @ CAR

STL @ BAL | GB @ MIN | DEN @ CHI | OAK @ DET

KC @ SD | CIN @ ARI | SF @ SEA | DAL @ MIA

TB @ PHI | BUF @ NE

Titans at Jaguars - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Those fantasy owners who hopped back on the Marcus Mariota bandwagon after his 371-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Saints were served a dose of reality after the rookie managed only 185 yards without a score last week against the Panthers. Such is life for rookie quarterbacks and another reason why they should usually be avoided in fantasy (unless they are facing New Orleans). Mariota isn’t a bad play this week due to the match-up, but the only Titan that fantasy owners should be confident in is Delanie Walker. WR Kendall Wright (knee) will miss his third straight game leaving Harry Douglas and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham as the starting wideouts.

The tight end is the team’s leading receiver and is eighth at his position in fantasy points, leading to TE1 status against Jacksonville, who is 24th in the league against the pass, 22nd in passing scores surrendered, 20th in sacks, 21st in yards per attempt allowed, and 25th in interceptions. They have allowed the fifth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and 12th-most to tight ends, but rank 16th in the 32-team NFL in FPts/G permitted to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Antonio Andrews had been trending upwards and was getting increased fantasy love the past few weeks, for good reason. Then he went and blew it all with a hideous 11-carry, eight-yard performance last week against Carolina. Andrews may have a decent game or two down the stretch, but he could just as easily replicate what he did against the Panthers, and fantasy owners shouldn’t trust him against the Jaguars. Dexter McCluster spells Andrews but with a ceiling of 50 yards combined and an occasional TD, he’s a low-end flex consideration at best.
Jacksonville has the NFL’s number six run defense, and no team has given up fewer yards per carry than the Jags, but they still rank 22nd in rushing scores permitted. They’ve also allowed a lot of receiving yards (501), to opposing runners which is why they have given up the ninth-most FPts/G in the league to backs.

Projections:
Marcus Mariota: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Antonio Andrews: 45 rush yds
Harry Douglas: 60 rec yds
Dorial Green-Beckham: 35 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Jacksonville continues to surge in relevance for fantasy owners after years of near invisibility, with quarterback Blake Bortles and wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in the top-10 in fantasy scoring at their respective positions. Hurns is the biggest story, having caught a touchdown in each of his past seven games, but Robinson hasn’t been forgotten, having snared a touchdown in four of his last five. Bortles has been inconsistent of late in terms of yards, and has thrown at least one pick in five straight games, but has also thrown multiple touchdowns in each of those contests. He’s probably along the lines of a QB2 this week, though each of the aforementioned wideouts should be in fantasy lineups as they take on the Titans.

Tennessee is third in the league against the pass, 16th in passing scores ceded, fifth in sacks, and 11th in interceptions, but just five teams are giving up more yards per pass attempt. The Titans have also allowed three rushing scores by quarterbacks, which is part of the reason why they have given up the 11th-most FPts/G to players at that position, while they’ve also allowed the seventh-most FPts/G to tight ends but the 12th-fewest to wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie T.J. Yeldon has been decent at times this season for the Jaguars, but with just one rushing score and only two games with more than 70 yards on the ground, he’s been mostly an afterthought for fantasy owners. The Alabama product, who is nursing a foot injury, should continue to ride fantasy benches this week against Tennessee. He was in a walking boot earlier this week and didn’t practice much this week. Given his questionable tag, fantasy owners should look elsewhere for their RB2.

The Titans are 21st in the NFL in run defense, and 25th in rushing scores permitted, but rank 10th in yards per rush allowed. However, no team in the league has given up fewer receiving yards to opposing backs, and they are one of five squads who has yet to allow a touchdown reception to a running back, which helps explain why they have given up the sixth-fewest FPts/G to players at that position.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
T.J. Yeldon: 60 rush yds
Allen Robinson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 35 rec yds

Prediction: Jaguars 23, Titans 16 ^ Top

Colts at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck will be sidelined for about a month due to an abdominal injury and lacerated kidney, meaning Matt Hasselbeck will get the nod under center for Indianapolis as they travel to Atlanta. He’s played reasonably well in a pair of other games this season totaling roughly 18 fantasy points in each (standard scoring leagues), but there is little reason to expect big numbers from the veteran. The Colts’ passing game as a whole has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, and more of the same should be expected this week against an Atlanta unit that has been stingy versus opposing aerial attacks.

The Falcons are 19th in the NFL against the pass and have the fewest sacks in all of football, but are fifth in touchdown throws allowed, 10th in yards per attempt given up, and seventh in interceptions. They have allowed the sixth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the fourth-fewest to wide receivers, but just four teams have permitted more FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Even without a 100-yard outing on his resume this season, Frank Gore has been a worthy RB2/flex option on a weekly basis. In his last contest, against the Broncos, the 32-year-old veteran scored a touchdown and ran for 83 yards, but it took him 28 carries to get there.

Gore’s status as a secondary fantasy back should remain unchanged this week as he takes on a Falcons defense that has allowed plenty of rushing scores. Atlanta has the NFL’s third-ranked run defense, and is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry, but only Detroit has given up more scores on the ground, and only New Orleans has allowed more receiving yards to running backs. So despite keeping the yardage totals in check, the Falcons are still allowing the seventh-most FPts/G in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Frank Gore: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
T.Y. Hilton: 80 rec yds
Donte Moncrief: 55 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: In Atlanta’s last game, a 17-16 loss to the 49ers, Matt Ryan doled out a familiar stat line, which included plenty of passing yards (303), but just a single touchdown throw. In the Falcons’ nine games this year, Ryan has tossed multiple touchdowns four times, and doesn’t have a single contest with more than two passing scores. This has limited the fantasy output for any player involved in the Atlanta passing attack with the exception of Julio Jones, who is having a remarkable season with 80 catches and over 1,000 yards but just six touchdowns.

Still, Ryan has produced enough to maintain a low-end QB1 status, and should be starting (along with Jones, obviously) for fantasy owners this week against a middling Colts pass defense. Indianapolis is 28th in the league against the pass, 16th in passing scores allowed, 22nd in yards per attempt given up, and 30th in sacks, though they are seventh in interceptions. In terms of fantasy points, they are among the 10 worst teams in FPts/G allowed to quarterbacks, wideouts, and tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: During Atlanta’s previously mentioned loss to the 49ers, Devonta Freeman had his worst game of the season on the ground, with only 12 yards on 12 carries. Thankfully, he saved his fantasy owners some misery by picking up 68 yards and a touchdown via reception. Freeman remains the top running back in fantasy, and an obvious RB1 against a below average Indy rush defense. The Colts are 22nd in the NFL against the run, 25th in rushing scores permitted, 13th in yards per carry allowed, and have given up the 12th-most FPts/G to opposing running backs.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs
Devonta Freeman: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Julio Jones: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 60 rec yds
Jacob Tamme: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Falcons 27, Colts 20 ^ Top

Jets at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick recently had surgery on his left (non-throwing) thumb, but he should be good to go this weekend, which matters because he’s the one throwing the touchdown passes to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Decker has caught a touchdown in all but one of the games he’s played this year, while Marshall has scores in six of his nine contests. Marshall gets more targets and has nearly 200 more yards than Decker, but each is among the top-12 at their position in fantasy scoring, and each is a solid option this week despite a tough match-up against the Texans.

Houston has the league’s fifth-ranked pass defense and rank 16th in passing scores surrendered, 15th in yards per attempt allowed, 17th in interceptions, and 10th in sacks. They rank a little better than average in FPts/G allowed to both quarterbacks and tight ends, and have permitted the 10th-fewest FPts/G to wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: After struggling for a few games, Chris Ivory came to life last week, running for 99 yards and adding 36 more through receptions (though it should be noted he also lost a fumble). He’s currently fifth among running backs in fantasy scoring and should continue to be a valuable asset to fantasy owners, particularly with match-ups such as the one he has with Houston. The Texans are 25th in the NFL in run defense, 16th in rushing scores ceded, 24th in yards per carry allowed, and have given up the 10th-most FPts/G in the league to opposing running backs. Bilal Powell (ankle) is expected to back for this contest and should resume his role as the third-down back.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 190 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Chris Ivory: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Kellen Davis: 10 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer had played well since retrieving the starting quarterback job from the since-jettisoned Ryan Mallett, and eked his way into the minds of fantasy owners, if not necessarily their rosters. Unfortunately, a concussion will sideline him this week, and T.J. Yates will take over. He isn’t a fantasy option, so owners will only be interested in whether or not the signal-caller can continue to deliver touchdown throws to DeAndre Hopkins, like the game-winner he tossed to his wideout last week against the Bengals. Hopkins missed practice on Wednesday but should be able to play on Sunday, and is a WR1 regardless of who his quarterback is or what opponent he’s facing, which this week is DB Darrelle Revis and the Jets.

The Jets have been solid against the pass this season, ranking ninth in the NFL in pass defense, 13th in passing scores given up, seventh in interceptions, and 16th in sacks while holding opposing quarterbacks to the league’s lowest completion percentage. New York has given up the 12th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks, and while they’ve been just above average in FPts/G allowed to wideouts, they’ve permitted the ninth-fewest FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: There is absolutely nothing to see here, and fantasy owners can confidently ignore whoever Houston plops in as their running back, unless proven otherwise, which seems unlikely. Alfred Blue had one huge game back in September but has otherwise been invisible, and his match-up this week with the Jets is even more of a reason to ignore him. Chris Polk has been limited this week with a hamstring injury so it will likely be Jonathan Grimes picking up the change-of-pace work.

New York has the league’s top run defense, and there is no argument to be made otherwise, at least statistically. No team is giving up fewer rushing yards per game or has allowed fewer rushing scores, and they rank ninth in yards per carry given up. The only reason the Jets are allowing the third-fewest FPts/G to running backs instead of the fewest is because they have permitted three receiving touchdowns to players out of the backfield.

Projections:
T.J. Yates: 175 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Alfred Blue: 35 rush yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 85 rec yds, 2 TDs
Nate Washington: 40 rec yds
Ryan Griffin: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Jets 21, Texans 17 ^ Top

Redskins at Panthers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins had a monster game last week, with 324 yards and four touchdowns, though there’s a footnote – he put up those numbers against the Saints, who are redefining the definition of awfulness when it comes to pass defense. Don’t let that performance or his three touchdowns against Tampa cloud your judgment, as those are his only two games with multiple touchdown throws this season. Cousins does have some viable weapons, with a now fully healthy DeSean Jackson primed to move up the fantasy ranks, and tight end Jordan Reed among the top-five in fantasy scoring at his position.

Neither Jackson nor Reed has a prime match-up, but both are usable this week against Carolina. The Panthers are 11th in the NFL against the pass, rank fifth in touchdown throws given up, second in yards per attempt allowed, sixth in sacks, and first in interceptions. They have surrendered the eighth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the fifth-fewest to tight ends, but are squarely in the middle of the league in terms of FPts/G given up to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: The Washington run game has been a huge disappointment from a fantasy perspective, as Alfred Morris has just two games with at least 65 rushing yards and still hasn’t found the end zone, while rookie Matt Jones has been more productive overall but inconsistent. The timeshare these two find themselves in make them unpractical fantasy options, and both should be kept on the sidelines against the Panthers and their average run defense. Carolina is 14th in the league in run defense, 16th in rushing scores allowed, and 17th in yards per carry permitted. With rankings so similar, it makes sense that they are 17th in FPts/G surrendered to running backs.

Projections:
Kirk Cousins: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Alfred Morris: 65 rush yds
Matt Jones: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Jamison Crowder: 40 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 55 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton continues to be a source of controversy, at least to football fans who think touchdown celebrations will corrupt the world’s children. Fantasy owners have no such qualms with an asset as valuable as Newton. He isn’t going to wow fantasy owners with his passing numbers – he threw for 217 yards and one score last week against the Titans – but if he can avoid turnovers, get the ball into the hands of Greg Olsen, and run the ball, there’s little to complain about. Newton and Olsen are the only two Panthers involved in the passing game with fantasy value, but they have plenty of it, with each among the top five in scoring at their position, and each a weekly starter no matter the opponent, which is the Redskins this week.

Washington is 12th in the NFL against the pass and 13th in passing scores permitted, but is 21st in interceptions, 23rd in yards per attempt surrendered, and 26th in sacks. They have allowed the 10th-fewest FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks and the fifth-fewest to tight ends, but just six teams have ceded more FPts/G to opposing wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: Cam Newton’s prowess on the ground is well known – he has six rushing scores on the season, including one in each of his last two games – but Jonathan Stewart has also been productive. He didn’t get more than 18 carries through his first four games of the season, but has carried the ball between 20 and 24 times in each of his last five games. During those contests Stewart has run for 75 or more yards on four occasions while finding the end zone four times, and become a more valuable fantasy asset in the process.

Stewart isn’t likely to have many big games, but should continue to be a decent source of points, and isn’t that what a RB2 does? Consider him just that this week against Washington. There is only one team in the league that is allowing at least 5.0 yards per carry – the Redskins. They are 30th in the league against the run, but are somehow seventh in rushing touchdowns surrendered, which is why they are 16th in FPts/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Ted Ginn Jr.: 50 rec yds
Philly Brown: 35 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Panthers 24, Redskins 20 ^ Top

Rams at Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback Nick Foles who has not surpassed 200 passing yards since Week 1, was pulled last week for backup Case Keenum and it was announced early in the week that Foles has been benched permanently. Keenum has a career 2-8 record as a starter with Houston and the Rams, but head coach Jeff Fisher is hoping he can provide a spark to a passing offense that has been dreadful. The Rams’ receivers have not helped matters, and their best overall wide-out Brian Quick has not been involved enough after missing most of the offseason. So, while Foles is being used as the fall guy it hasn’t all been his fault. With that said, the change can’t really hurt and Keenum did provide some excitement as a rookie with the Texans when he threw for 1,760 yards and 9 touchdowns with 6 interceptions while adding 72 yards and another score on the ground in eight games. Tavon Austin has been the team’s best weapon in the passing game. He has been effective in the short screen game gaining chunks of yards after the catch and as a deep threat as well. Don’t expect miraculous changes, but also don’t be surprised with a jump in the overall passing game for at least this week.

Not only could the “new blood” spark the passing attack, but facing a Baltimore pass defense that has yielded big numbers should help as well. On the season the Ravens are allowing 271 passing yards per game and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns with only 4 interceptions in nine games this season. This is a favorable matchup on paper, but there is of course the risk of Keenum falling flat on his face.

Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley has been everything the Rams hoped for when they used the 10th overall pick in the draft on him this past May. He’s the first rookie running back ever to rush for more than 125 yards in four consecutive games and has carried the offense since he’s been back from his ACL recovery. Fisher’s motivation in replacing Foles likely has something to do with the running game as well, as teams are starting to realize that all they need to do is stack the box to stop the Rams. Gurley has 52 total yards and a touchdown on the Rams’ first drive last week, but was then slowed down by a Bears’ defense that loaded up to stop the run. Once the Bears got out to a big lead the Rams were forced to abandon the run anyway. Gurley is a monster at 6’1’ and 227 pounds with elite level speed. He is already arguably the best running back in the league and will be the focal part of this offense, but the Rams will have to have some semblance of a passing game or Gurley will be fighting even more of an uphill battle each week.

The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league and are capable of making life difficult for Gurley even under the protection of a great passing game, so the Rams cannot afford to be one dimensional on Sunday. Through eight weeks the Ravens are allowing only 98.7 rushing yards per game with 5 rushing scores. They will obviously be focused on stopping the run, and Gurley will need to step up to the challenge or the Rams’ season will slip away.

Projections:
Case Keenum: 255 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Todd Gurley: 105 rush yds, 2 TDs, 35 rec yds
Tre Mason: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 85 rec yds, 30 rush yds
Kenny Britt: 30 rec yds
Jared Cook: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco managed to throw for over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns despite the Ravens starting Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens as their top wide receivers last week. He did also turn the ball over three times, with two interceptions and a fumble, but considering what he is working with he deserves some credit. Tight end Crockett Gillmore just may be the most dangerous pass catcher at Flacco’s disposal which should tell you just how dire the situation is in Baltimore. The 6’6” product out of Colorado State caught all four passes thrown his way including a 10-yard touchdown. Fellow tight end, rookie Maxx Williams and Givens were the other two receivers at the end of Flacco touchdown passes. Givens showed real promise as a rookie in St. Louis before falling out of favor in subsequent seasons and came to Baltimore after an in season trade between the two teams. The speedster adds a dimension that has been lacking all season and he fits in well with the strong armed Flacco. His role could grow more and more as the season moves on.

The Ravens’ competition level steps up this week as they face the Rams’ top 5 defense. The Rams are allowing 222.4 passing yards per game and have only given up a league lowest 8 touchdown passes. Expect the Ravens to send Givens deep a few times this game as he seeks “revenge” against a team lacking weapons in its own right that gave up on him.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett is having a disappointing season and the 30-year-old journeyman’s time in the spotlight may be coming to an end. Forsett totaled 64 yards in last week’s loss and hasn’t made the highlight type runs that were a part of his magical season of 2014 where he surprised the rest of the league with a career year. His rookie backup, Buck Allen, has looked better in his limited carries and could be worked in more to see if he could handle a lead back role in 2016. Allen isn’t a dynamic runner but runs with power and has enough agility to keep the chains moving. In a lost season for the Ravens, it couldn’t hurt to audition him down the stretch.

The Rams have been a tough run defenses allowing 109.4 yards per game and only 6 scores on the ground. Since the Ravens haven’t looked to run the ball much anyway recently, the Rams’ ability to stop the run shouldn’t be much of a factor in this contest.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Justin Forsett: 40 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Javorius Allen: 20 rush yds
Kamar Aiken: 60 rec yds
Chris Givens: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Crockett Gillmore: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Rams 27, Ravens 24 ^ Top

Packers @ Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Head coach Mike McCarthy said this week that Aaron Rodgers is “trying too hard.” That statement was offered to explain why the Packers’ passing attack has struggled in recent weeks. Last week the Packers shockingly lost at home to the Detroit Lions is a game where Rodgers threw for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns but completed only 35 of 61 passes. Davante Adams was targeted an incredible 21 times but only managed 10 catches for 79 yards. Some of that was due to Rodger’s uncharacteristic inaccuracy, but Adams also failed to gain separation on many of his routes and let the ball bounce off his body on several occasions. The 6’1” 215 pound Adams will need to be more efficient going forward for the offense to break out of its funk. The Packers have received good production from their second year tight end Richard Rodgers, who scored again last week but veterans James Jones and Randall Cobb have been struggling during the losing streak. The Packers travel to play the first place Vikings this week and if the Packers cannot halt their three-game losing streak, this season may spiral out of control quickly for a team many pundits picked to go to the Super Bowl.

The Vikings’ pass defense is an above average unit, especially at home, allowing 228 yards per game and 11 touchdown passes on the season. The Vikings haven’t been able to force many turnovers which is something that could come back to haunt them now that they start facing better competition in the second half of the season. Minnesota would love for the Packers to get off to another slow start which would likely make Rodgers start pressing even more, If they could force the Packers into a few mistakes it would be a great way for the Vikings to hold onto their division lead.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy missed last week’s game with a groin injury, but veteran James Starks was expected to start anyway according to McCarthy. Starks didn’t do much to put a stranglehold on the lead back role rushing for 42 yards on 15 carries but did add 54 yards on 6 catches. Lacy should make it back this week and the Packers will likely use both backs to wear down a strong Vikings’ defense. For now, Starks seems like the safer option for those who own both backs, as McCarthy has stated that he has earned the starting honors. Lacy will need to return to his 2014 form or risk irrelevance down the stretch.

The Vikings will present a stiff challenge to the Packer run game as they are allowing only 108.6 rushing yards per contest on the season with only 5 scores on the ground. The Packers really need their running game to get going, as it will only make life easier for Rodgers.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 295 pass yds, 3 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
James Starks: 45 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
James Jones: 30 rec yds
Randall Cobb: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Richard Rodgers: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Vikings 7-2 record has masked the fact that Teddy Bridgewater has not built on his productive rookie season, and is arguably actually regressing during his sophomore campaign. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s antiquated offensive scheme does not play to Bridgewater’s strengths. Bridgewater is a smart accurate quarterback that could master the short quick passing offense that is en vogue through the league, but the Vikings prefer to run the ball and throw the ball downfield – “old school” stuff. That of course does not play into the strengths of the slightly built and weak armed Bridgewater. Bridgewater is only averaging 201.1 passing yards per game and only has 7 passing touchdowns on the season. On the positive side he has continued to impress with his mobility and has only thrown 6 interceptions on the season. Rookie Stefon Diggs who had become the Vikings only true passing game threat has slowed down the last two weeks after putting up 25 catches for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns during his first four games of heavy action. He’s only caught 5 balls for 88 yards since and as a result, Bridgewater’s numbers have declined even further. Mike Wallace and Kyle Rudolph have not contributed enough to be fantasy considertations.

The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 255.3 yards per game with 12 touchdowns against thus far making this an average matchup for the Vikings’ passing attack. Of course the Vikings are likely not heading into this game looking to put up big passing numbers. Their game plans all season have revolved around running the ball and playing tough defense, a formula that has worked very well. Expect more of the same, since that strategy will also help limit the time that Rodgers gets to try and turn things around for his offense.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson carried the Vikings’ offense on his strong shoulders last week as the team went into the Black Hole of Oakland and came out with a win. Peterson rushed for 203 yards including an 80-yard touchdown run to seal the game. The 30-year-old Peterson is not showing any signs of age and is still showing big play ability averaging 5.7 yards per carry over his last three games. He has 961 rushing yards and 5 scores on the season, despite the opposition knowing that he is the focal point of the Vikings offensive scheme. The Vikings have smartly built their offensive game plan around AP and he’s delivered.

The Packers are a below average run defense, allowing 116.2 yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. Ideally the Vikings will be looking to exploit this weakness and run the ball which would also, as said earlier, help keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. This of course shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 125 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Matt Asiata: 10 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 20 rec yds
Stefon Diggs: 60 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 21 ^ Top

Broncos v. Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Broncos Head coach Gary Kubiak had the unenviable task of benching Peyton Manning in the same game where he passed Brett Favre for the most passing yards in NFL history. After the game, Kubiak tried to protect the legend by blaming himself for putting his quarterback on the field when he wasn’t completely healthy. This was followed by an Adam Schefter report stating Manning was playing with a torn plantar fasciitis injury during the game. So, Kubiak is spared from actually deciding to sit the future Hall of Famer for an unproven Brock Osweiler, but the results are nevertheless the same as the youngster will be starting this week while Manning recovers. The strange part is that the passing offense is likely to be much more effective now. Not only is Osweiler better suited to run Kubiak’s roll out based offense, but his arm is strong enough to take advantage of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas’ ability to get downfield. Osweiler completed 14-of-24 passes for 146 yards with a touchdown and an interception and also scrambled for 18 yards in relief of Manning last week. Prior to that, the Broncos had been shut out and only had 36 yards passing on the day. In the preseason he completed 64% of his passes at 7.1 yards per attempt and threw 3 touchdowns with 1 interception. Despite being 6’7” and 242 pounds Osweiler is athletic and can move around well. It will be interesting to see if Osweiler has success over the next couple of games whether the team goes back to a quarterback that has a 9:17 TD to INT ratio on the season.

The Bears’ defense has been surprisingly stingy in giving up yards through the air allowing only 217.8 yards per game but they haven’t been stingy in allowing teams into their endzone, giving up 17 passing touchdowns through nine games. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the unit playing better than anyone could have realistically expected, but the lack of pass rush and inability to create turnovers could eventually catch up to them and could help a young quarterback who is making his NFL debut as a starter.

Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos’ running game has been horrendous this season despite big talk about the team becoming a run based attack under Kubiak. Ronnie Hillman, the speedy veteran, has looked a bit better than the incumbent C.J. Anderson but neither has found much running room this season. The Broncos are the 29th ranked rushing attack averaging only 86 yards per game. The lack of any running game also hurts the play action based Kubiak passing game. The team will have to hope the inexperienced linemen up front get it together soon, as the team cannot depend on the defense to win games for them every week.

The Broncos catch a break this week at least as the Bears are middle of the pack in run defense allowing 118.6 yards per game on the ground. Strangely enough they have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns on the season but have also allowed 3 receiving scores by RBs.

Projections:
Brock Osweiler: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
C.J. Anderson: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 70 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 50 pass yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The much maligned Jay Cutler is playing as well as he has in years and has the Bears winning games no one expected they could. He has not completely eliminated turnovers (5 interceptions and 2 fumbles) in eight games, but he has done a better job protecting the football and has 13 touchdown passes on the season. Last week his 3 touchdown passes came from some unexpected sources that made plays for their quarterback after the catch - veteran backup tight end Zach Miller (twice) and rookie running back Jeremy Langford. Look for the team to continue playing in a conservative fashion, as it’s the John Fox way and it’s working right now, but Cutler can still be an effective fantasy quarterback during good matchups and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey has been a target hound and productive player when healthy.

The matchup doesn’t look good matchup on paper. The Broncos are allowing a league low 182.8 passing yards per game and have given up a league lowest 8 touchdown passes. Cornerback Aquib Talib returns from his one-game suspension creating a tough matchup for Jeffery who is also battling injury. If you have better options sitting him is advisable.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Jeremy Langford may have made veteran free-agent-to-be Matt Forte expendable this offseason. Langford has totaled 324 yards and 3 touchdowns during the Bears last two games in place of the injured Forte. Langford took a short Cutler pass 83 yards to the house last week and has excelled in all aspects of the game. It remains to be seen, but Forte may return this week to crash the party which will return the rookie to a backup role, but Langford has earned playing time at the veteran’s expense. It could be as high as a 60-40 split in favor of Forte going forward, which will come as a blow to a veteran used to seeing as high as 80 percent of the work.

The Broncos are also a top 10 run defense, allowing only 94.6 rushing yards per game with 7 rushing scores but were abused by Charcandrick West of the Chiefs just last week. The defense has carried the team throughout this season and will need to hunker down with an inexperienced quarterback now under center.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 65 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Jeremy Langford: 25 rush yds, 1 T, 45 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 55 rec yds
Marquess Wilson: 40 rec yds
Martellus Bennettt: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Broncos 27, Bears 17 ^ Top

Raiders at Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Raiders passing attack had been hitting on all cylinders (imagine that) prior to last week’s game when Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree were slowed down by the Vikings’ corners and Derek Carr made a few costly mistakes. Carr still finished with 302 yards and two touchdowns but was also picked off twice in a losing effort at home. On the season Carr is averaging 266.2 yards per game and has an impressive 21:6 TD-to-INT ratio. Cooper and Crabtree have been the focal points of the passing game most weeks and both are putting up fantastic numbers. It’s only recently that Carr has started using other options like Andre Holmes and tight end Clive Walford making the offense even more difficult to account for. Carr has made a huge leap from the dinking and dunking he did as a rookie where he produced a subpar 5.5 yards per pass attempt. This season he’s actually increased his completion percentage despite going down the field far more often evidenced by his current 7.6 yards per attempt. This should be a bounce back week for Carr’s wide-outs.

The Lions defense has struggled all season. The unit is allowing 260.1 passing yards per game with 16 touchdown passes. They have shown an ability to get to the passer with 23 sacks but that hasn’t resulted in generating turnovers for the Lions. Darius Slay may shadow Cooper leaving Crabtree with the best matchup against the Lions secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Latavius Murray was handed the starting job this offseason and has not disappointed. He is averaging 75.3 yards per game on the ground and has scored three times, while also contributing in the passing game (26-133). He is a tall upright runner who takes his share of big hits, so health is always a concern (he suffered a concussion earlier in the season but did not miss any time), but his power and speed combination should keep him among the league rushing leaders if he does stay healthy.

The Lions run defense has been very poor during the course of the 2015 season. The team is now allowing 124.1 yards per game on the ground and has yielded a league worst 14 rushing touchdowns. This should be a nice matchup for the Raiders’ running game facing a Lions defense giving up the fifth most fantasy points to running backs.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 10 rush yds
Latavius Murray: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Taiwan Jones: 20 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Amari Cooper: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Clive Walford: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: New offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter, had the bye week to install his “return to the basics” offense after replacing Joe Lombardi prior to the team’s Week 8 game. While the results were not earth shattering, Matt Stafford did have one of his better games of the season. Against a tough Packer defense on the road, Stafford threw for 246 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception in a rare Lions’ win at Lambeau Field. Calvin Johnson sprained an ankle in Week 8 and is still not completely healthy but played through it last week and should be on the field again this week. It was two players not likely in any fantasy starting line-ups, Lance Moore and Brandon Pettigrew, catching the touchdown passes last week, but the change in offensive play-calling should benefit Johnson, and veteran Golden Tate who can both get behind a defense. Look for their numbers to improve this week.

Before facing a weak Minnesota passing attack in Week 10, Oakland had allowed at least 250 yards passing yards in every game this season. On average they are still allowing 293.2 yards per game and have given up 16 passing touchdowns. This should be the week for the Lions’ passing attack to get back on track.

Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have been the worst rushing offense in the league this season, averaging only 66.9 yards per game on the ground. Ameer Abdullah created a lot of buzz this preseason, but has been a non factor. Once again this week, there’s chatter about getting Abdullah more involved but he’s done very little with the chances that he’s gotten and his fumbling issues have kept his usage low. Veteran Joique Bell spent the off-season recovering from multiple injuries and surgeries and barely averaged over one yard per carry last week after looking like he was getting his legs back under him. The line play has been poor thus far and at this point in the season, counting on a Lions running back seems like a dangerous fantasy proposition.

Making matters worse, the Raiders have been extremely strong against the run outside of last week when Adrian Peterson posted over 200 yards alone. Prior to that game they had limited the opposition to 82.9 yards per game on the season a number that rose to 115.3 afterwards.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Theo Riddick: 15 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Ameer Abdullah: 20 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Joique Bell: 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 55 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Raiders 27, Lions 24 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Week 10 looked like it was going to be a dangerous matchup for anyone in the Kansas City offense, but an epic meltdown from Denver quarterback Peyton Manning allowed the Chiefs offense to control the clock and turn in a dominant victory. Of course, being up multiple scores early in the game didn’t leave much room for quarterback Alex Smith and the passing game to get things going, but the unit was decent enough with Smith throwing for 204 yards and a touchdown while avoiding any turnovers against an excellent Denver defense. Although Smith has been in double digits for fantasy points in every game except one this season, his upside is lacking. He has just two games of 20 or more fantasy points on the year and those two contests were the only ones where he threw for more than one touchdown. Because of this, Smith remains a reliable but not very exciting QB2 for most formats. His top receiver, Jeremy Maclin, has also fallen out of fantasy good graces as he has not topped 50 yards receiving since Week 5, while scoring just one touchdown over that span. Meanwhile, tight end Travis Kelce, the team’s only other viable option in the passing game, has continued to produce solid TE1 numbers, but has not had any big breakout games since his Week 1 explosion where he had 106 receiving yards and two touchdowns. In fact, Kelce has scored just one touchdown since Week 1. Still, he has made between four-to-six receptions in all but one game this season and that makes him a reliable starter, particularly in PPR formats, at a position with a ton of fluctuation.

In Week 11, the Chiefs passing game will be against a Chargers defense that have been quite poor against opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks. The Chargers have allowed at least 17 fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing QB’s in each of their past four games, including back-to-back 300-plus yard passing days to the Ravens and Bears, both of whom were missing weapons in their passing games. The Chargers are coming off of a bye and certainly have been focusing on this divisional matchup, but their secondary is very beatable, even for a low-powered passing attack like the Chiefs. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Smith put up one of his better performances of the season, especially if San Diego gets off to a good start and puts points on the board early. Smith owns a career 93.2 QB rating against the Chargers and averages 223.5 yards per game against them – a full 30 yards per game higher than his full career average. Still, Maclin is not an overly exciting option right now given his lack of success in recent weeks, so he should probably remain on your bench unless you’re in a tough spot at your WR3. Kelce can be deployed as a starting tight end as usual and he does have an enticing matchup against the Chargers defense which has given up the four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past three games.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles tearing his ACL was supposed to signal the end of the Kansas City offense in 2015, but Charcandrick West didn’t get the memo. In fact, West has become a viable RB1 himself since taking over the starting job. West has taken at least 20 carries in each of the Chiefs’ past three games while rushing for a total of 276 yards and scoring a rushing touchdown in all three contests. He has also been fairly active in the passing game as he has added 136 yards receiving and a touchdown. These numbers have been more than any fantasy owner could’ve expected and what’s better is that they’ve come against some very tough defenses, especially the Broncos this past week. Only Lamar Miller has scored more fantasy points (standard scoring) than West since Week 7.

West’s high production and even higher workload has made him a must-start option, especially in an excellent matchup like the one he has here in Week 11 against the Chargers. San Diego has allowed more points per game to opposing running backs than any team in the league this season. Their 11 total touchdowns allowed to the position are also tied for the most in the league. Better yet, the production hasn’t just come in a couple of games – it’s been a consistent stream of big production from just about every running back. They’ve allowed at least 12 fantasy points per game to the position in every game this season and they’ve given up 20-plus points to the position in six of their nine games. As long as the Chargers don’t get out to a huge lead early in this game, West should be a high level RB1.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Charcandrick West: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
Jeremy Maclin: 70 rec yds
Albert Wilson: 25 rec yds
De’Anthony Thomas: 20 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: One of only two quarterbacks (Tom Brady) who has already cracked the 3000-yard passing mark already this season, Philip Rivers has certainly out-produced his preseason projections here in 2015. Rivers has dealt with injuries to numerous players in his offense including his top receivers Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd along with both of his top tight ends Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. In fact, including Allen who is out for the season, Floyd, Gates and Green have all failed to practice in any game as of Thursday and are all looking questionable at best to play. Of the three injured pass catchers, Gates seems most likely to play, but fantasy owners will need to pay close attention prior to kickoff. If they all miss the game, Rivers could again turn to Stevie Johnson to be his top target, along with running back Danny Woodhead. Johnson made a season-high seven receptions for 68 yards in Week 9, but he has not scored a touchdown since all the way back in Week 2.

A weekly starter in most formats at this point, Rivers does have a tough matchup here in Week 11. He’ll be attempting to pass against a Kansas City defense that has not allowed multiple passing touchdowns or over 250 yards passing since Week 5. This past week, they absolutely humiliated Peyton Manning, who had struggled all season but looked like he wasn’t even worth being on an NFL roster against the Chiefs. Kansas City did struggle early in the season against the pass, but they’ve since locked down the passing game and Rivers could certainly be in for a down game in this one, especially if he’s missing the majority of his top pass catchers.

Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers’ leading running back this season – at least in terms of touches – has been rookie Melvin Gordon. Gordon has averaged 15 touches per game, but his production has certainly not indicated that. Gordon hasn’t reached double digit fantasy production (standard scoring) in any game yet this year and he has, shockingly, failed to score a single touchdown. With Gordon struggling, the Chargers have turned to veteran pass-catching back Danny Woodhead to make big plays this season. Woodhead has been excellent this year and ranks in the top eight at his position in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Of course, his 46 receptions are second-most among running backs, so he is certainly more valuable in PPR formats, but his overall yardage totals and five touchdowns on the year have helped make him a viable weekly starter in all formats.

Kansas City has been solid against the run so far this year, having conceded the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backs. What’s been even more impressive is that they’ve been absolutely incredible at keeping running backs out of the end zone. Aside from their Week 4 meltdown against the Bengals, the Chiefs have allowed a total of just one rushing touchdown in their other seven contests combined – and that came this past week against the Broncos once the game was essentially already over. With the Chargers struggling to get into the end zone, it seems likely that the Chiefs will improve upon those defensive rushing touchdown numbers. Still, Woodhead is the kind of player who could do damage this week, especially if the Chargers are without some of their other top targets in the passing game.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 270 pass yds, 2 TD
Melvin Gordon: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 25 rush yds, 60 rec yds
Steve Johnson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 21, Chargers 20 ^ Top

Bengals @ Cardinals - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton has been one of the unexpected fantasy heroes of the 2015 season, but his strong start hasn’t exactly carried over since the Bengals’ Week 7 bye. Dalton threw for a total of 14 touchdowns with only two interceptions in his first six games, but has only thrown for four touchdowns with three interceptions over his past three. That includes an absolute disaster this past week when Dalton and the Bengals fell short at home against the Texans, losing a game while scoring just six offensive points. Dalton failed to throw a touchdown for the first time this year and while he certainly did not benefit from the numerous drops that his receivers had, Dalton looked like the “old” Dalton who we remember as being a mediocre quarterback in previous years.

Dalton will look to get things back on track, but they’ll have their hands full here in Week 11 as he and the Bengals travel to Arizona to face a Cardinals defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Arizona has also held opposing QB’s to fewer than 255 yards in all but two of their games. With Patrick Peterson likely to lineup against A.J. Green, there could be an opportunity for Marvin Jones to show up in this game. Arizona has allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing receivers on the year and while Peterson has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league, his fellow members of the secondary have been beatable, especially for touchdowns. Tight end Tyler Eifert, who has been one of the breakout players of 2015, has his worst game of the season this past week with numerous dropped passes and only 26 yards receiving and he’ll be looking to get back into the end zone, but it’s worth considering that the Cardinals are one of the best defenses in the league against opposing tight ends, having conceded the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position on the year.

Running Game Thoughts: An offense scoring six points in a game rarely leads to high fantasy production from running backs and that’s exactly what happened this past week with the Bengals. Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill combined for just 51 rushing yards on 15 carries and while Bernard was able to save what could have otherwise been a disastrous fantasy day by catching five passes for 43 yards, both players have been extremely disappointing in recent weeks. Neither Bernard nor Hill has been in fantasy double digits (standard scoring) since Week 6. Bernard has been substantially more valuable in PPR formats due to his 26 receptions on the year, but that number really isn’t spectacular and it’s certainly not enough to make fantasy owners overly confident about starting him.

That trust might be even more difficult to come by this week when the Bengals duo attempts to run on the Cardinals defense. Arizona has conceded the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this season and they’ve only allowed five total touchdowns to the position on the year. Perhaps most terrifying is that the Cardinals have held opposing running backs to fewer than 100 rushing yards in all but one game this season which has allowed them to allow the fewest total rushing yards in the league so far this year. A struggling Bengals running game and a strong Cardinals run defense likely means low yards per carry for Hill and Bernard, but Bernard does still have some value as a Flex option in PPR formats. Arizona has given up 50 receptions to the running back position this year, so Bernard does have a reasonably high floor in this matchup.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jeremy Hill: 40 rush yds
Giovani Bernard: 25 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Marvin Jones: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
A.J. Green: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 20 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: One of the most balanced teams in the league this season, the Arizona Cardinals may finally be ready to make a deep playoff run and a lot of that can be attributed to the play of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer. Palmer, who has suffered multiple season ending injuries throughout his career, has seen a resurgence in 2015, throwing for an impressive 23 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. His top pass catcher, Larry Fitzgerald, has also been a monster in 2015, having already exceeded his 2014 totals in receptions, yards and touchdowns through just nine weeks. Fitzgerald has been a rock solid WR1 throughout the year and should continue to be that, but the real battle has come behind him on the depth chart. Young receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown have been battling through injuries, but they’ve also battled for looks when they’ve been the field. Brown looked to be running away with the job early in the year, but with Brown slowed down with hamstring injuries in both legs, Floyd has really come on in recent weeks. Floyd has been a monster since Week 6, having made a total of 19 receptions for 328 yards and five touchdowns over his past four games. Those numbers have made him a WR1 in all formats over that stretch and while he’s still firmly behind Fitzgerald on the target list, he may have taken back his job opposite Fitzgerald as the team’s second wide receiver. With that, Brown may now see fewer targets, particularly near the red zone where the larger-bodied Fitzgerald and Floyd are more likely to be able to outmatch defenders.

With Brown still nursing a hamstring injury, it would be wise to sit him at least one more week, but Palmer, Fitzgerald and Floyd almost certainly need to be rolled out in most formats, assuming Floyd (hamstring) plays. The unit will be up against a Bengals defense that has been excellent against opposing passing games, having conceded just 11 touchdowns on the year while forcing nine interceptions. They have not given up more than one passing touchdown to an opposing quarterback since Week 3. It’s worth considering, though, that they haven’t exactly played against the best passing games in the league and the Cardinals have already proven that they can exploit excellent defenses in previous matchups.

Running Game Thoughts: He’s been up and down from a fantasy standpoint this season, but the overall results have been undeniable from veteran running back Chris Johnson. The Cardinals’ starting tailback took over the job early in the season after an injury to Andre Ellington and has not looked back, rushing for over 100 yards in four contests. His 734 total rushing yards put him second in the league, behind only Adrian Peterson. Johnson’s fantasy production has been a bit limited, however, primarily due to his lack of usage in the passing game where he’s made just five receptions on the year, and his lack of effectiveness near the goal line where he has scored just three touchdowns. Still, Johnson is getting enough touches to be considered a weekly starter in most formats.

Johnson had one of his weaker games of the season this past week when he rushed for just 58 yards on 25 carries against a stout Seattle defense, but he should find it easier to find room here in Week 10 as he goes up against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks 12th in fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing running backs, but that’s a much easier matchup than what Johnson saw against the second-ranked Seahawks. Cincinnati has actually given up a less-than-stellar 4.6 yards per carry to opposing backs on the year, which should bode well for Johnson who has been a yardage monster. Unfortunately, their strength of allowing just two rushing touchdown on the year might be difficult for Johnson to overcome as he and the Cardinals haven’t done a great job of opening up running lanes near the goal line.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 290 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Chris Johnson: 85 rush yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 100 red yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 45 rec yds

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Bengals 20 ^ Top

49ers @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Colin Kaepernick era may very well be over in San Francisco, especially after the team stepped up and performed with serious heart alongside new quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Yes, that Blaine Gabbert. The former top-10 NFL Draft pick got his first start Week 5 of the 2013 season. He was able to get his first win since all the way back in Week 3 of the 2012 season. Gabbert didn’t play exceptionally well in his first game, throwing for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 15-of-25 through the air. He also threw two interceptions on the day.

Gabbert seems to be the 49ers’ quarterback for the foreseeable future and while that might give the 49ers a better chance to win some games, it’s not exactly exciting from a fantasy standpoint. Gabbert could very well be without top wide receiver Anquan Boldin who has been out since Week 7. Even if Boldin does play, a matchup against the Seahawks is one of the worst possible scenarios for this already mediocre offense. The Seahawks have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and prior to a big game allowed to Carson Palmer and the Cardinals this past week, the Seahawks had given up a total of just 221 total passing yards in their previous two contests. That includes a Week 7 matchup against a Kaepernick-led 49ers team who had just 124 passing yards and failed to throw a touchdown. Gabbert and the 49ers did look better for one week, but it’s far too early to be trusting anyone in this passing game, especially in this matchup, until we see more.

Running Game Thoughts: After injuries to both Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush had the 49ers scrambling to find running back depth, most believed that the newly-signed Pierre Thomas would see significant playing time against the Falcons in Week 10. That wasn’t the case, however, as Thomas touched the ball just four times. Not only was that not enough to lead the team, but it wasn’t even enough to be second. Kendall Gaskins got seven touches, but it was fellow new signee, Shaun Draughn, who got the majority of opportunities. Draughn accumulated a total of 96 yards on 20 total touches – by far the most productive game that a 49ers back other than Carlos Hyde has had so far this season.

Hyde is once again expected to sit this week, which should lead to another heavy workload for Draughn. One player to keep an eye on, however, is Travaris Cadet, who took Thomas’ roster spot earlier this week and may very well overtake Thomas’ role as the team’s primary passing down back. Cadet quietly made 38 receptions in limited playing time as a member of the Saints in 2014 and does have some legit pass catching ability. With the 49ers not expected to be very competitive in this difficult matchup against an excellent Seahawks defense, this offense could very well be in a higher-than-usual number of passing downs, which could lead to decent day for Cadet in PPR formats. The Seahawks have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, but if there’s a place for running backs to find room, it might very well be in the short passing game.

Projections:
Blaine Gabbert: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Shaun Draughn: 45 rush yds
Kendall Gaskins: 20 rush yds
Travaris Cadet: 30 rec yds
Torrey Smith: 40 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 40 rec yds
Jerome Simpson: 30 rec yds
Garrett Celek: 25 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Drafted as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback heading into the season, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has to be considered one of the biggest busts in the league so far this season. Week 10 was more of the same from the former Super Bowl-winning QB as he threw for just 240 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Wilson has thrown for just 10 touchdowns on the season along with seven interceptions and he has not exceeded 300 yards through the air in any game. Worse yet, he’s only thrown multiple touchdowns in one game and that came all the way back in Week 2. If it weren’t for his 355 rushing yards – second most among quarterbacks – we could be talking about Wilson as being in the 20’s among quarterback scorers. Even with his rushing, though, he’s only 14th and his receivers have certainly suffered because of it. Tight end Jimmy Graham, the team’s huge offseason trade acquisition, ranks just ninth in the league at his position in total fantasy points and he has not been in the end zone since Week 3. The only viable fantasy option at wide receiver for the Seahawks has been Doug Baldwin, who is 34th at his position. Prior to his seven-reception, 134-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 10, Baldwin had not been in double digit fantasy points since Week 2.

A struggling Seattle passing game could get themselves back in track here in Week 11 as they’ll be up against a San Francisco secondary that currently ranks 24th in fantasy points per game given up to opposing quarterbacks in 2015. They’ve given up at least one passing touchdown in every game other than Week 1. Wilson threw for 235 yards and a touchdown against this defense back in Week 7 when these teams played, but he also threw two interceptions and rushed for just 20 yards – his fewest total thus far in 2015. In that game, the only Seattle receiver who made more than three receptions was rookie Tyler Lockett, who caught a season high five passes including his first and only touchdown of the season. Needless to say, it’s going to be very difficult to trust anyone in this passing game here in Week 11, even in a good matchup. Graham is really the only player who should be in most lineups if he’s owned, but that’s more due to a lack of other great options at the position this season than it is a compliment of what Graham has been able to do.

Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners were left scratching their heads and not knowing what to do this past week as Lynch was a game-time decision for a late night game. As such, he was likely out of a lot of lineups as he rushed for 42 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks’ loss to the Cardinals. Lynch has battled numerous injuries throughout the year, but as has been the case throughout the majority of his career, he’s mostly been fairly productive when he’s been on the field. Still, he ranks a very disappointing 32nd among running backs in total fantasy points heading into Week 11 and he’s only cracked 100 yards once this year.

Lynch is still banged up, but expected to be back out there in Week 11 when the Seahawks host the 49ers. His one 100-yard game actually came against this defense when these teams played back in Week 7 as Lynch rushed for 122 yards on 27 carries, including a touchdown. Despite the 49ers having an elite defense throughout almost his entire time in Seattle as a divisional foe, Lynch’s per-game numbers have actually been excellent against the 49ers throughout his career. In 11 career games against San Francisco, Lynch has averaged 106 total yards and he’s scored nine total touchdowns. Now that the 49ers are substantially weaker on defense, Lynch has the ability to improve upon those numbers. Unfortunately his abdomen injury seems to be still bothering him, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Thomas Rawls get some touches to spell Lynch in this game. Still, Lynch is the only player in the Seattle running game who should be considered for fantasy purposes and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him return RB1 numbers in this game.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Thomas Rawls: 25 rush yds
Fred Jackson: 20 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds
Tyler Lockett: 40 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 17, 49ers 13 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Dolphins - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: He’s back! After seven excruciating games without any semblance of an offense, Tony Romo is back. I’m not saying Romo is the league’s most valuable player (he is not), but no player is more valuable to his team than Romo is to the Cowboys. I truly believe this team would go 0-16 without him. A single win during his absence would’ve gone a long way towards a comeback, but even so, the Cowboys find themselves not quite dead yet with seven games to play. It all starts this week in Miami. All of Cowboys nation thanks the Dolphins for their efforts last week against the Eagles and as a reward, they will be just the second team this season to see Romo and Dez Bryant on the field at the same time. With both players having just a few games under their belts on the season, we don’t have much to go on in terms of statistics. Romo played well in his only full game this season, but that was back in Week 1, which was also when Bryant broke his foot.

The Cowboys last played the Dolphins almost four years ago to the day on Thanksgiving in a tightly contested comeback win. Romo was quite mediocre in that game and Dez Bryant wasn’t quite “Dez Bryant” yet. It is also impossible to compare the 2011 Dolphins to the 2015 Dolphins. Too much has changed. This year’s Dolphins have allowed 254.7 pass yards per game and 17 TDs while forcing 7 INTs. They have not allowed a single 300-yard passer not named Tom Brady. However, they have also not faced a single quality QB other than Brady. Romo will be their second real test of the season after they spectacularly failed the first one. It goes without saying that Romo’s return is a boon for every Cowboys skill position player. Bryant vaults right back into the top 5 at WR and Jason Witten should return to TE1 status. If you have been stashing Romo, feel free to deploy him this week, but don’t bench anyone who has been a consistent season-long QB1 for him just yet.

Running Game Thoughts: Another week, another RB gone. This time, at least, it was not due to injury. On Tuesday, the Cowboys ended the Christine Michael experiment. It appears as though he is just never going to “get it.” If you showed me a picture of every Cowboys running back, the only one I’d be able to point out is Darren McFadden. He has been a true workhouse in a league with strikingly few, averaging 23 carries over his past four games. His productivity stands to spike now that his offense is capable of actually scoring points.

As an added benefit, he gets one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this week. The Dolphins are allowing 135.6 yards per game on the ground and 4.2 yards per carry. They do see a league high 32 rushing attempts against per game, but for good reason. They can’t stop anyone. The Dolphins have allowed a 100-yard rusher in four games this season while allowing five 100-yard rushers total (Williams and McCoy both had 100-plus-yds in Week 9). With the volume McFadden is going to see this week and no competition for carries, he has a great chance to become number six.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs
Darren McFadden: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill returned to end zone last week for the first time since Week 7, throwing for 217 yards and 2 TDs in a win over the Eagles. The second TD doesn’t count, though, as Tannehill fired it into Connor Barwin’s helmet where it ricocheted into the air and somehow fell into the waiting arms of Jarvis Landry (add this to the list of “I have no idea how he scored on that play” TDs that Landry has on the season). Tannehill is still making too many mistakes. He has thrown 9 interceptions and has taken a safety, somehow, in three consecutive games.

The Cowboys defense has been much better than anticipated, having allowed just 9 passing TDs on the season and severely limited opposing receivers. Their performance only stands to improve with Romo’s return as now the offense will actually be able to sustain drives and keep the defense on the sidelines longer. Tannehill will still pepper Landry with targets, which is what makes his floor so high and a WR2 every week. The player who could suffer the most is Rishard Matthews. He has been a solid WR3, but the Cowboys have been surprisingly adept at limiting receivers of his play style. Stick with Landry, but if you’re stuck deciding between Matthews and a similar caliber receiver, you might want to go with option B.

Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi has made an immediate impact for the Dolphins and deserves a role going forward. Make no mistake, though, this is still Lamar Miller’s backfield. Ajayi has been excellent on his limited touches, but has still received just 11 carries through two games and has been absent from the passing game. Meanwhile, Miller has carried the ball 16 and 12 times over the past two weeks and had 5 or more receptions in each of the past three games. Last week was his fifth game in a row with a TD. While I wouldn’t expect him to run for 100 yards against the Cowboys, he remains a strong bet for a score as the Cowboys have allowed the third most rushing TDs with 10. Look for Miller to continue to hover around 15 carries with Ajayi mixing in sparingly. Miller is a low end RB1 this week.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Rishard Matthews: 40 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 20 ^ Top

Bucs @ Eagles - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston had his streak of four consecutive games without a turnover snapped last week against the Cowboys. He threw two interceptions, which easily could have been three or four. He also flat out dropped the ball to lose the game in the 4th quarter until the refs handed the Bucs a second chance on a defensive holding penalty. Winston continues to struggle with completing passes, posting percentages of 56.4, 52.8, and 55.2 over his past three games. He has just one passing TD over that span although he has rushed for a score in each of the past three weeks. His weekly game plan seems to entail haphazardly tossing the ball in Mike Evans’ general direction. That has been very poor for Evans’ efficiency, but very good for Evans’ production. Evans has now posted back to back games of 8 receptions and gone over 125 yards in both. He has just one TD on the season, but he is being inundated with targets and remains a WR1, albeit with a considerably lower floor than most.

The Eagles haven’t faced many physically imposing receivers, but the ones they have seen have had their way with this defense. Julio Jones went for 141 yards Week 1. Brandon Marshall went for 109 yards Week 3. Dez Bryant went for 104 yards Week 9. Even Rishard Matthews went for 93 yards last week. In a week where he should once again see double digit targets, things are shaping up nicely for Evans to have another strong outing. The Eagles have allowed 15 pass TDs on the year so perhaps Evans can find the end zone for just the second time this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin continues to play quality football as his bounce back year carries on. Last week’s numbers weren’t flashy, but in a game where he couldn’t really get anything going and didn’t find the end zone, he was able to put up RB2 numbers. Martin hasn’t scored in four weeks, but he is receiving the bulk of the carries and that doesn’t project to change this week. Charles Sims is still on the field way more than I’d like him to be, but the coaching staff seems to want Sims to work. He remains the passing down back and if the Eagles build up a lead, Martin could find himself on the sidelines a little too often. Working in Martin’s favor is the 111.3 yards per game the Eagles allow on the ground. Hopefully he can find his way into the end zone as well.

Projections:
Jameis Winston: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs
Doug Martin: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Charles Sims: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mike Evans: 85 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has not been good this year. With just two multi-TD games on the season, Bradford’s lackluster campaign came to a screeching halt as he was driven into the turf in the 3rd quarter of the Eagles’ loss to the Dolphins last week. Bradford separated his left shoulder and was concussed on the hit. Suffice it to say he is not going to play this week. Enter Mark Sanchez. The Sanchize is back and hasn’t missed a beat. He looked OK for most of his relief appearance except for a throw where nearly killed Jordan Matthews. Then he topped it all off with a game sealing end zone interception. Conventional wisdom says to always give relief QBs a pass as obviously Sanchez was not prepared to enter this contest. However, we have seen this before with Sanchez. Bradford may not have been playing well, but Sanchez’s ceiling might very well be Sam Bradford. In Sanchez’s nine games in 2014, he completed 64.1% of his passes with 14 TDs and 11 INTs and did have an excellent rapport with Jordan Matthews. Despite his tendency to hang receivers out to dry, Sanchez could be exactly what JMatt needs to get going after his return to prominence lasted all of one week.

Matthews managed just 3 catches for 21 yards last week as the Eagles receivers were largely ineffective. With a full week of practice with the ones, Sanchez should at least be somewhat competent against a Bucs defense that has been stingy with the yards, but generous with the touchdowns. The Bucs allow just 233.2 yards per game through the air, but have allowed 19 passing TDs, which is tied for 3rd worst in the league. Matthews remains the only member of the Eagles passing attack you should be starting, but treat him as nothing more than a WR3 until he proves worthy of stronger consideration.

Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray had an ineffective, yet productive game last week against the Dolphins. He dominated the backfield touches with 22, but accumulated just 61 yards. He did see 8 targets in the passing game, catching 6 for 58 yards. Ryan Mathews was the back to find the end zone, though, and he has now scored in six games this season. Unfortunately, he departed last week’s game early with a concussion. He will obviously go through the league’s concussion protocol and his status needs to be monitored throughout the weekend, but owners should operate as if he will not be able to play. Murray will remain a high end RB2 regardless of Mathews’ status as Mathews has not impacted Murray’s workload even when playing. Murray has had just one truly impressive game this year, but as long as the volume keeps up, he belongs in fantasy lineups.

The Bucs have been surprisingly stingy against the run this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and only Alfred Blue in Week 3 can claim a 100-yard rushing day against the Bucs. They have been superb at limiting the big play on the ground. The longest rush they’ve allowed all season is 21 yards, which is quite incredible. Just when it looked like the Eagles were starting to find their rhythm, Bradford went down and now Mathews is banged up as well. You’re starting Murray this week, but temper expectations for a team very much in turmoil at the moment.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
DeMarco Murray: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 60 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Eagles 20, Bucs 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Patriots - (Katz)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bills will throw no more than they have to. Tyrod Taylor has made 7 starts for the Bills this season and has attempted fewer than 20 passes three times and attempted 30 or fewer passes six times. In Week 4 against the Giants, Taylor threw the ball 42 times, 12 more than his next highest pass attempt total. The Bills do not hide the fact that their strategy every week is to win the game on the ground. Last week against the Jets, they did just that. Taylor played well, completing 17-of-27 throws for 158 yards and a TD, which was great for Rex Ryan…not so much for your fantasy team. Sammy Watkins went back to being an afterthought, catching just 3 of his 7 targets for 14 yards. Robert Woods had a nearly identical game with the only difference being he had 19 yards receiving.

The good news is the Bills will likely have to throw more this week, making Taylor’s matchup much more appetizing. The Patriots allowed Eli Manning to throw for 361 yards last week with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. When the Patriots and the Bills last met in Week 2, the game was a complete shootout, with Taylor completing 23-of-30 passes for 242 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs. He also rushed for 43 yards a TD. Admittedly, a large portion of Taylor’s production came in garbage time as the Patriots carelessly allowed the Bills back in the game, but stats are stats however we get them. I would not expect 4 TDs again, but I would expect Taylor to get back on the QB1 horse this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills running game is just really impressive. The Jets are a very good team with a very good defense, yet they had no answer for LeSean McCoy last week as he gashed them for 5.9 yards per carry. McCoy didn’t score, but he is now up to 4.7 yards per carry on the season after his second consecutive 112-yard rushing game (yes – he’s rushed for exactly 112 yards in back to back games). In this most recent performance, he added 47 yards on 5 catches. The only thing missing was a touchdown, which, of course, went to Karlos Williams. I think at this point we just have to assume he’s going to score in every game of his career…right? Williams touched the ball 8 times, 7 on the ground for 24 yards and once in the air for 26 yards and the Bills’ lone offensive score.

Expect more of the same from the Bills, at least early on, as they do their best to keep Tom Brady off the field. Shady should touch the ball upwards of 20 times with Williams handling his usual 8-10. The Bills had success on the ground Week 2 before they had to abandon the run while in catch up mode. The Patriots are right up there with the Jets for the league’s best run defense, but I would not let that be much of a deterrent from starting Shady with confidence. At this point, I’d feel confident starting Williams, too, if I didn’t have a better option.

Projections:
Tyrod Taylor: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
LeSean McCoy: 70 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Karlos Williams: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 35 rec yds
Charles Clay: 70 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: We have discovered the only way to contain Angry Tom Brady – the New York Giants. It truly is incredible. Yes, the Patriots won the game, but they certainly didn’t deserve to. For the first time all season, Brady looked human. After the opening drive where he scored easily, Brady struggled mightily. He legitimately looked out of sync and rattled. I cannot remember the last time I watched Tom Brady and thought to myself, “I’m not sure if he can do this.” He threw a reckless interception targeting Brandon LaFell in the end zone and fumbled twice (losing just one) while showing “un-Brady-like” presence in the pocket. If not for the Giants’ continued incompetence when it comes to understanding late game clock management, the Patriots likely lose.

Over the past two weeks, Brady has scored just two touchdowns in each game, which for Brady, is considered underperforming. In their Week 2 game against the Bills, Brady threw for his season best 466 yards and 3 TDs. Look for Brady to return with a dominant performance against a team that doesn’t have his number. As for his receivers, the hits just keep on coming as Julian Edelman suffered the same injury as Dez Bryant. He underwent surgery on Monday and his regular season is over. With Edelman sidelined, Danny Amendola picked up the slack, seeing a team high 11 targets and catching 10, including the two most important ones of the game on the final drive to setup Gostkowksi’s game winner. LaFell was serviceable and will continue to be a boom or bust WR3. Rob Gronkowski was mostly held in check aside from his 76-yard TD. The entire offense should have a much better time away from planet Krypton. Start your Pats with confidence.

Running Game Thoughts: Quick! Everyone run to your waiver wire to put in your claims for James White or Brandon Bolden! Which one will fill the Dion Lewis role? Answer: neither. LeGarrette Blount carried the ball 19 times for 66 yards and even caught 2 passes for 11 yards. He was on the field for the majority of the snaps and didn’t feel the wrath of Bill Belichick after his missed blocking assignment led to a Brady strip sack. White and Bolden combined for just 3 touches and are completely irrelevant. The passing plays previously designed for Lewis were going to Edelman and Amendola (now just Amendola). If you do not roster Blount, you do not need a Patriot running back.

Blount was nowhere to be found during the Week 2 match up, but he certainly will have a large role this week. He is averaging 21 carries over the Patriots’ last three games. If we remove the two games where he saw just 2 and 3 carries (Weeks 2 and 7), Blount is averaging 4.57 yards per carry on the season. He is a virtual lock for another 15-plus carries this week and his volume and lack of competition for carries makes him an every week RB2. The Bills are a top 10 run defense, but they struggled with Chris Ivory last week and could suffer a similar fate with Blount.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 290 pass yds, 3 TDs
LeGarrette Blount: 110 rush yds, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 110 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 60 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 100 rec yds, 2 TDs

Prediction: Patriots 34, Bills 23 ^ Top