Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor returned from his multigame
absence and picked up right where he left off. Unfortunately for
fantasy owners, the Dolphins weren’t good enough to force
Taylor into more action. Taylor threw just 12 passes as the Bills
ran all over the Dolphins. The big positive from last week’s
game is that Taylor displayed exactly why his floor is so high.
Even in a game where he wasn’t asked to do much, Taylor
completed an impressive 11 out of 12 passes, threw for a TD, and
added 44 rushing yards. He didn’t quite crack QB1 numbers,
but easily would’ve gotten there had his opponent put up
a little resistance. Somehow, in a game where his QB completed
just 11 passes, Sammy Watkins exploded for easily his best game
of the season and the second best of his career. Watkins caught
all 8 of his targets for 168 yards and Taylor’s lone TD.
Taylor and Watkins were paradigms of efficiency. Taylor threw
for exactly 13 yards to all players not named Watkins (namely
Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy). In a game unlike any I’ve
ever seen, just three different players caught passes –
one at each offensive skill position.
The Jets should provide a much stiffer test, which is actually
a good thing for fantasy purposes. Taylor should at least top
20 pass attempts and given his dual threat abilities, is a good
bet to return backend QB1 value. Watkins, unfortunately, has to
travel to Revis Island. He remains a boom or bust WR3.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams went
berserk last week, totaling 222 yards on 25 combined carries.
Shady had to leave early with a shoulder injury, but has been
adamant all week that he intends to play Thursday night and his
Probable designation supports that. If Shady misses any future
games, Williams instantly becomes a low end RB1. The 5th round
rookie has scored a TD in every game he’s played in. He
added two more scores last week and is now averaging 6.6 yards
per carry on the season. Even with Shady active and relatively
healthy, Williams has standalone flex value on 8-10 touches. Shady
is high or low end RB2 depending on the matchup.
He’s been banged up for much of the season and that remains
the case this week in a tough matchup against the league’s
top run defense. He should still be in lineups as the Bills have
shown their insistence on pounding the rock regardless of matchup.
One thing I would not expect this week, though, is a ground score.
Obviously there are many scenarios that lead to a rushing score,
but the Jets have only allowed two rushing TDs all season. Williams’
TD streak likely ends on Thursday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a man. I don’t
care that his torn up thumb is on his non-throwing hand –
that most definitely hurts so credit to him for playing through
it. Reports are that he is going to have the necessary surgery
to repair the torn ligaments on Friday and use the fact that the
Jets play a Thursday game to give himself extra time to heal up
as he attempts to not miss a game. Of primary concern is this
week’s contest and the fact that FitzMagic will be a full-go
is great for the values of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. I
don’t think the fantasy world really appreciates how good
both have been this season. Marshall has gone over 100 yards or
scored a TD in seven out of eight games and Decker has scored
a TD in six out of the seven games he’s played (and in the
only game he didn’t score, he made up for it with 94 yards
receiving). Marshall remains the preferred option and is locked
in as a WR1, but Decker is a rock solid WR2 and a must start for
anyone who rosters him.
The Bills have been unspectacular against the pass this season
and although 15 scores allowed through the air is about average,
this was supposed to be an elite unit, but has disappointed for
the most part. I wouldn’t expect the Jets to completely
light it up through the air, but there is no reason that both
Marshall and Decker can’t meet expectations against a team
ranked in the bottom fourth in fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Over the past three weeks, Chris Ivory
has been the “worst best” running back in football.
After back to back games of 140-plus yards, Ivory has amassed
a mere 84 yards on 55 carries the last three games combined. His
fantasy output hasn’t been that poor because he has fallen
into the end zone three times, but make no mistake, Ivory has
looked absolutely terrible. It makes me wonder if he isn’t
still injured.
The Bills may be struggling against the pass, but they have been
strong against the run allowing just 93.6 yards per game on the
ground, good for 6th best in the league. They also limit big plays,
having allowed just three rushes of 20 yards or more. The combination
of struggling running back against a quality defense is usually
one to avoid, but Ivory has been finding ways to produce and is
still a solid bet for a TD as he dominates goal line work.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Dan Campbell honeymoon is over and the
Dolphins, to quote Dennis Green, “are who we thought they
were,” that is, not a very good football team. We can’t
put last week on Ryan Tannehill, though. He threw for 309 yards
on 27 of 36 passing. If the two TDs were through the air rather
than on the ground, he would’ve had QB1 numbers. Unfortunately
for Tannehill owners, the scores weren’t through the air,
making this his second consecutive game without a TD pass. To
put it bluntly, QB1s simply don’t go consecutive games without
throwing a TD. One thing Tannehill does do every week –
throw to Jarvis Landry. Landry saw a game high 13 targets, catching
11 of them for 69 yards. The yards per target average is not very
inspiring, but in leagues where receptions award points, the usage
is highly encouraging.
Adding to Tannehill’s lack of productivity is the absence
of his running. Over the past three seasons, Tannehill has averaged
254 rushing yards per year. This year, he is not even on pace
for 100. On the positive side of things, Tannehill heads to Philly
to do battle with an Eagles defense that just allowed Matt Cassel
to throw for 299 yards and 3 TDs. The Eagles struggled mightily
to keep track of shifty slot man, Cole Beasley. Jarvis Landry
primarily operates out of the slot and is far more talented than
Beasley. The Eagles are 4th in the league in interceptions so
it is highly likely that Tannehill turns the ball over at least
once, but he could still return back end QB1 numbers. Landry is
the guy I feel best about, though.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller was inefficient on the ground,
taking his 12 carries for just 44 yards. He was very efficient
at the goal line as 2 of his 12 carries landed him in the end
zone. That would’ve been enough to salvage his fantasy day,
but he felt like adding 97 yards on 7 receptions. The Dolphins
may not have been very competitive, but they made sure to feed
Miller. After failing to find the end zone before the Dolphins’
bye, Miller has now scored in each of the last four games. Dan
Campbell’s coaching still leaves a lot to be desired and
instances like failing to call timeout on the Dolphins final drive
of the first half do not bode well for his chances of ridding
himself of the “interim” tag, but one thing he has
done well is involve Miller heavily in the offensive game plan.
The least encouraging bit of news for Miller owners is the return
of the rookie out of Boise State, Jay Ajayi. He looked excellent
in his first game back off IR, gaining 41 yards on just 5 carries,
and has immediately leaped to No.2 on the depth chart. Jonas Gray
did not touch the ball and was subsequently released. If Miller
were to go down, Ajayi is the unquestioned beneficiary and is
probably worth a speculative add if you’re a Miller owner
and have a roster spot available, especially given the recent
comments by Campbell that Ajayi has earned more carries. The Eagles
have allowed just three rushing scores this season, but allow
4.1 yards per carry and 112.9 yards per game to opposing rushers.
Darren McFadden managed 117 yards on 27 carries. Obviously, there
is no chance Miller sees that type of volume, but he remains a
low end RB1 in a matchup that isn’t nearly as imposing as
some may think.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford still belongs nowhere near
your starting lineup, but he had what I consider to be the best
game of his Eagles career last week against the Cowboys. Bradford
threw for 295 yards, completed 69.4% of his passes, and didn’t
turn the ball over for the first time since Week 4. The entire
Eagles offense is trending upward after this performance. Things
the Cowboys aren’t good at: a) winning overtime coin tosses,
b) preventing previously struggling players from ripping off lengthy
game winning TD receptions (see: Spiller, CJ). While the game
result was once again very disappointing as a Cowboys fan, it
was very encouraging as an unapologetic Jordan Matthews enthusiast.
JMatt saw a game high 12 targets, caught 9, and most importantly,
dropped 0. He racked up 133 yards including his second TD of the
season against the Cowboys (also, his second TD of the season
in general) on a 41-yard catch and go home in overtime. I know
it’s only one week, but I still believe he can push WR1
value over the second half of the season.
For those of you who didn’t jump ship, sit back and reap
the benefits of your resiliency. The Dolphins have allowed 69
points over their last two contests (if you want to call them
that) and have allowed opponents to score 23 or more points in
all but two games. They are tied for allowing the 5th most TD
passes with 16. Look for Bradford and Matthews to build on last
week’s success.
Running Game Thoughts: Much to my dismay, Demarco’s Revenge
was in full effect last week. Demarco Murray returned to Jerry
World for the first time as a member of the opposing team and
ripped off 83 yards on 18 carries with a TD while adding 78 yards
on 6 catches. For as bad as Murray looked at the beginning of
the season, it is important to realize that there is still half
a season left, and he has been much better the past four weeks.
It is entirely possible that this week was a fluke for the Eagles.
The more likely outcome is that they’re starting to figure
it out. Murray was second in targets and receiving yards behind
Matthews as Chip Kelly continues to draw up designed pass plays
for Murray. Ryan Mathews saw no work in the passing game, but
was given 11 carries, which he took for 67 yards and a TD. Darren
Sproles was barely used.
Here’s an interesting stat – the Dolphins defense
has allowed Karlos Williams to rush for exactly 110 yards each
time they played the Bills this season. In Week 3, he was the
lead back with LeSean McCoy hurt. Last week, not only was he playing
second fiddle to McCoy, he wasn’t the only 100 yard rusher.
McCoy also totaled 112 yards on the ground as the Dolphins allowed
a total of, including Tyrod Taylor, 266 rushing yards to the Bills.
Wow. The Dolphins run defense has fallen to 31st in the league.
The Eagles also utilize two backs much like the Bills. Murray
has returned to RB1 status, but it would not come as a surprise
if Ryan Mathews returned RB2 value as well. The wheels are beginning
to fall off for the Dolphins and this game shapes up as one where
Murray and Mathews could run all over them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After seven weeks of football, one thing
was clear – Drew Brees’ days as a QB1 were over. After
nine weeks of football, one thing is clear – rumors of his
demise have been greatly exaggerated (pretty sure I’ve used
that one before). Brees still has a penchant for throwing the
ball to the wrong team, but that’s nothing new. Over the
past two weeks, he has rediscovered his love for throwing TDs.
While 10 TDs across two games looks quite nice, the number 10
that jumps out at me is his yards per attempt. After averaging
a dismal 5.8 yards per attempt against the Colts, Brees bounced
back considerably, posting averages of 10.1 and 9.9 over the past
two weeks. As his efficiency goes up, his productivity follows.
Brees is back amongst the QB1 elite and he’s bringing up
the stocks of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead with him. Cooks found
the end zone for the second straight week on a beautiful 38-yard
over the top grab. Snead did not score last week, but he led the
game with 95 yards on 10 targets. Outside of a Week 7 dud against
the Colts, Snead has been mighty reliable this year.
The Redskins were destroyed by the Patriots last week as Brady
continues to do whatever he wants through the air. It would’ve
been worse, but Belichick decided to run the ball 30-plus times.
In their last two games, the Redskins have been unable to stop
Tom Brady and Jameis Winston. They’re only allowing 240.4
passing yards per game to opposing QBs, but recent results do
not bode well for their chances of containing Brees.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram has not been the icon of efficiency
this year, but he’s posted elite RB1 numbers by simply finding
ways to get it done. If you take out his 143-yard outburst against
the Colts, Ingram is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. He’s
been getting it done through 5 TDs and an average of 4 receptions
per game. Ingram managed to total 96 yards and he caught 4 passes
last week and the injury to Khiry Robinson did not seem to impact
the Saints whatsoever. C.J. Spiller remains irrelevant and saw
no increased usage, which is confusing to football fans and Spiller,
himself. Ingram did see his season high in carries with 22 and
maybe he will receive an extra couple carries per game, but overall,
not much changed.
The Redskins have been thoroughly embarrassed on the ground this
season, allowing 132.5 yards per game to opposing rushers and
4.8 yards per carry. Given the volume of work Ingram has been
receiving and the complete absence of competition for carries,
he should once again be in line for a big workload and one that
projects to be significantly more successful than last week. Ingram
is shaping up to be a monster this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: 22 completions on 40 pass attempts for 217
yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Hey Kirk – we don’t “like
that.” Kirk Cousins took the bye week to remember that he
is still, in fact, Kirk Cousins. He forgot about his 3 TD, 0 INT
outburst and went back to the guy that consistently throws exactly
1 TD. His interception last week wasn’t his fault. That
blame goes to Pierre Garcon, who was one of several Redskins to
drop a pass. While it’s fun to laugh at Cousins’ expense,
the fact remains that the Redskins never really had a chance.
If there’s any positive to be gleaned from last week’s
beat down, it’s that DeSean Jackson appeared to emerge from
the game without a setback and should improve as he gets healthier.
As always with DJax, it’s completely hit or miss. His 3-15
performance last week makes him no more or less likely to go 5-120-2
this week. Jordan Reed was mostly held in check, but was the recipient
of Cousins’ lone TD pass, coming, of course, in garbage
time.
He should fare much better this week against what I consider
to be the league’s worst pass defense. Technically, the
Raiders and Giants are worse, but both of those teams are capable
of forcing turnovers. The Saints just let opponents throw and
throw and throw. They’ve allowed 24 pass TDs on the season
and forced just 4 interceptions. That level of futility is hard
to fathom. If there was ever a week for Cousins to shine, it’s
this one. I’d like to think that Jackson can burn this secondary
at least once.
Running Game Thoughts: All the talk about Chris Thompson returning
to make this backfield even more of a nightmare and he sees just
4 targets in the passing game and no carries. Naturally, Matt
Jones and Alfred Morris capitalized greatly on this opportunity…by
combining for 37 yards on 15 carries, both averaging 2.5 yards
per carry. It looked like Jones was ready to seize control of
the feature role once again, but of course, he fumbled. He still
led the team with 11 carries while Morris saw just 4, but this
running game is a cemetery.
The Saints have been almost as bad on the ground as they’ve
been through the air defensively. They allow 4.7 yards per carry
to opposing rushers and have let in 7 rushing scores. Even in
a tasty matchup, though, both Jones and Morris have proven ineffective
and incapable of exploiting porous defenses. Especially in a game
where the Redskins should have to throw to keep up with Brees,
they should both be nowhere near starting lineups.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady failed to reach the 3 TD threshold
for just the second time this season in last week’s win
over the Redskins. If we take out Matt Cassel on the assumption
that no one started him, Brady was the last of the QB1s in what
was easily his worst performance of the season. It is scary how
high Brady’s floor is. In last week’s writeup, I discussed
Brandon LaFell’s imminent return to WR3 status. He is officially
back and can certainly be trusted in fantasy lineups. He led the
Patriots with 5 catches for 102 yards and saw a game high 9 targets.
In a game where Rob Gronkowski was surprisingly quiet, LaFell
picked up the slack. This offense now supports three relevant
pass catchers.
The upcoming matchup could not be better as the Giants have been
battling the Saints for the league’s worst pass defense.
One of just two teams allowing over 300 yards passing per game,
this has the makings of a potential all time performance for Brady.
If Angry Tom Brady hates anyone more than Roger Goodell, it’s
the New York Football Giants. To recap, here are the ways the
Giants have spoiled Brady’s fun: a) They cost him Super
Bowl 42, b) They cost him a perfect season, c) They cost him Super
Bowl 46. If not for the Giants, Brady would be 6-0 in Super Bowls,
have a perfect season to his name, likely have two more Super
Bowl MVPs, and be the unquestioned greatest QB in NFL history.
So what force will prove more potent – Brady’s anger
or the Giants’ “mystique” when it comes to facing
the Patriots? My guess is Brady is not going to let the Giants
ruin another undefeated season attempt. He makes a statement this
week.
Running Game Thoughts: I am not a doctor, but I have watched
hundreds of thousands of football plays. It took me exactly 1.5
seconds to know that Dion Lewis tore his ACL when he crumpled
to the ground last week. It was yet another season ending injury
in a season unlike any other when it comes to high profile players
going down. With James White inactive, Brandon Bolden took over
Lewis’ role. When Lewis missed a game with his abdominal
injury, it was Bolden inactive and James White taking over Lewis’
role. The growing consensus is that White will get the first crack
at the job. Belichick has no allegiance to either White or Bolden
and both are worth speculative adds, but neither are worth a spot
in your lineup.
The biggest question is how this impacts LeGarrette Blount. He
had his best rushing game of the season last week, toting the
rock 29 times for 129 yards and a TD. He did not catch any passes,
though, as has been standard with his game for his entire career.
I don’t expect the Patriots to suddenly run the ball more
just because Lewis is out. Blount may, however, see the field
more often on passing downs simply because Belichick trusts him
more than the other two. The Giants run defense that was once
leading the league has plummeted into the bottom third. They are
now allowing 114.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. In
a game where I expect the Patriots to try and score a lot of points
(granted, this is pretty much every game), there should be enough
offense to go around to the extent that Blount will see 20-plus
carries. He is still going to be reliant on touchdowns for big
games, but Blount is a solid RB2 for this one.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning continues to be woefully inconsistent.
Following a game where he threw for 350 yards and 6 TDs without
turning it over, Manning threw for just 213 yards and 2 TDs with
2 INTs. In four of his nine starts this season, Manning has either
thrown for 0 TDs or multiple interceptions. That gives you about
a 50% chance at QB1 numbers on any given week. One thing Manning
did quite well last week was target Odell Beckham. Beckham saw
17 targets, catching 9 (not efficient, but still productive for
fantasy purposes) for 109 yards. Six of his nine games have been
representative of a consensus top 6 WR.
The Patriots rank right in the middle in pass defense, but are
notorious for taking away an opponent’s top weapon. Beckham
is undoubtedly the best player on the Giants, but I wouldn’t
worry too much as Manning will feed Beckham targets regardless
of what the Patriots do. They may contain him somewhat, but he
is too talented to stop entirely. If you need to take a flier
on a receiver this week, Rueben Randle is not a bad bet for a
TD in what should be a high scoring game. He has this stigma of
underperformance attached to him, but he has been flying under
the radar with respectable productivity. Randle has gone over
40 yards or scored a TD in each of his last seven games. You can
certainly do worse. Manning has thrown more than 41 passes just
once this season (week 5 vs San Fran). Expect that total to become
two after this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game is atrocious and
you should completely avoid it. Rashad Jennings continues to “lead”
this backfield however 13 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire
fantasy confidence. He belongs on waiver wires. Andre Williams
continues to see carries. Every carry he sees is exactly one more
than he should. In his last five games, Williams has rushed for
56 yards on 24 carries. Why he needs to be part of a four-man
rotating backfield remains a mystery. Orleans Darkwa was a flash
in the pan and Shane Vereen is the only conceivable option for
your consideration. He has now found the end zone back to back
weeks, but his usage was once again minimal. In Week 8 he had
a strong game, but so did everyone else against the Saints poor
excuse for a defense. If Vereen didn’t score last week,
he would have had yet another unproductive day.
If you have to throw a bye week filler Flex PPR dart, it’s
Vereen. The Patriots defend the run quite well, allowing just
89.2 rushing yards per game. Part of that is due to making their
opponents throw a lot as the Patriots see the third fewest rushing
attempts per game against. This week should be more of the same.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Many expected an offensive trainwreck for
the Bears in Week 9 without their star running back Matt Forte,
but quarterback Jay Cutler stepped up in a big way, throwing for
345 yards and two touchdowns in the win. While he did fumble once
and throw an interception, Cutler came up in the clutch when it
mattered, primarily utilizing his top two targets, Alshon Jeffery
and Martellus Bennett. Jeffery reached a season high 151 yards
on 10 receptions – his second 10-reception game in a row.
Jeffery has also eclipsed 100 yards in each of his three starts
since returning from injury. The big-bodied receiver has certainly
re-established himself as a must-start as an elite fantasy wide
receiver. Bennett made his way into the end zone for the first
time since Week 4. Bennett had been struggling a bit prior to
his eight-catch performance in Week 9, having only scored 11 fantasy
points (standard scoring) in his previous three games. As long
as Eddie Royal and Matt Forte are hurt, Bennett remains a startable
TE1 in most formats with a high touchdown potential and solid
floor.
The Bears may struggle to do much through the air this week,
however, as they head to St. Louis to battle a Rams defense that
has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks so far this season. Amazingly, this unit has allowed
just five passing touchdowns against on the year and have not
allowed a single passing score since all the way back in Week
5. While their bye week did fall into that range, there’s
no question that the Rams defense is dominating opposing quarterbacks
right now. While they’ve only intercepted six passes on
the year, it would be surprising if that number didn’t increase
substantially by the end of the season. They’ve done an
excellent job of getting after opposing quarterbacks and are currently
tied for second in the NFL in total sacks. With Cutler and the
Bears having struggled to slow down opposing pass rushes in the
past, it’s very possible that Cutler goes down a few times
this week, which could also lead to interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte certainly left some huge shoes
to fill, but rookie Jeremy Langford certainly seemed up to the
task – at least for one week. Langford rushed for 72 yards
and a touchdown, but also added three catches for 70 yards, including
an impressive downfield catch that made him look more like a wide
receiver than a running back. While Langford is not Forte, he
did show us that he is at least a serviceable fantasy option at
least while Forte is on the shelf. Forte has been very limited
and has not been involved in any contact drills since suffering
an MCL injury in Week 8, which seems to imply that he will again
be held out this week.
After lighting up a terrible San Diego run defense in Week 9,
Langford will have a much tougher task here in Week 10 as he goes
up against a St. Louis defense that has held opposing teams’
running backs to fewer than 65 total rushing yards in half of
their games this year. While the Rams’ run defense has been
more giving than their pass defense, they’ve still allowed
the 13th-fewest fantasy points to the position on the year. Adrian
Peterson and the Vikings rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown
against this defense in Week 9, but they had allowed a total of
just 113 rushing yards over their previous three games combined.
This is a good defense and a huge game for Langford seems unlikely,
but he’s certainly the Bears’ starter if Forte is
out again and should see 15 or more touches, making him a viable
RB2 in most formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There was a lot of hype surrounding the
arrival of Nick Foles in St. Louis this offseason, but so far
the former Eagle hasn’t lived up to it. While his group
of pass-catchers lacks talent and they’ve been inconsistent
on top of that, Foles simply hasn’t done enough to get the
Rams rolling on offense. The team has generally relied on their
defense and running game to control the clock and win games, but
that doesn’t really help fantasy owners who have seen Foles
fail to throw for even 200 yards in every game since Week 1. With
Foles struggling, so have his receivers. Stedman Bailey was suspended
earlier this week for violating the league’s substance abuse
policy. Bailey wasn’t featured much in the offense, but
it’s just another example of how incompetent this group
has been. The only player who has had any semblance of consistency
has been former first round pick Tavon Austin. Austin has been
contributing not only as a receiver, but also as a runner on occasion.
Austin’s fantasy numbers have been very tied to his ability
to break big plays, but he is an explosive player who has the
ability to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
It’s very hard to trust anyone in this passing game, but
the Bears defense is certainly one that can be exploited. Chicago
has given up at least one passing touchdown in every game so far
this season and the 17 total passing scores they’ve allowed
is tied for fourth-most in the league. Worse yet, the secondary
has forced just four total interceptions on the year, so Foles
should be able to avoid a disastrous game if you’re in the
situation where you have to start him for some reason. The only
player who should really be considered a fantasy option in the
Rams offense, however, is Austin. The nice thing about Austin
is that he is very clearly the team’s top receiver, so when
the Rams do opt to do something other than feed their young star
running back, there’s a good chance that the ball will be
coming his way. Still, Austin’s volatility makes him a risky
fantasy option in any matchup, even one as good as his Week 10
game against the Bears.
Running Game Thoughts: He’s only truly been given an opportunity
in five games, but Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is already
making a case to be the league’s Offensive Rookie of the
Year. Not only that, but with injuries to the likes of Jamaal
Charles and Le’Veon Bell, Gurley is already being talked
about as the potential top overall fantasy football selection
for 2016. In his five starts, Gurley has already rushed for 555
yards and four touchdowns, while adding an additional 88 yards
as a receiver on 13 receptions. Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has
a history of allowing his backs to truly be “bell cows”
and with “running back by committee” running rampant
throughout the league, it’s rare to find a player like Gurley
who not only has the talent to be a high-end back, but also the
coaching staff who will allow him to do it.
The St. Louis defense playing as well as it has is allowing Gurley
to touch the ball quite often and that doesn’t appear like
it will be changing much here in Week 10 where the Rams figure
to – once again – lean heavily on their young tailback.
The Bears run defense hasn’t been great this season, but
the stats show a unit that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns
on the year so far. They have, however, allowed at least 70 rushing
yards to opposing backs in each game this season and they’ve
given up three 100-plus yard games. Despite Chicago’s stingy
goal line run defense, Gurley is a rock solid RB1 in all formats
and should be deployed with confidence in what could be another
huge game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He was a rookie of the year candidate in
2014, but second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater simply has
not taken the next step this season. If anything, he’s taken
a step back, especially in terms of fantasy football production.
Bridgewater has had a few nice games, but he’s currently
the No. 28 overall fantasy quarterback in standard scoring formats
and his six touchdowns are among the fewest of any starting quarterback.
Aside from a few plays here and there, Charles Johnson has been
a non-factor while Mike Wallace has also disappeared in recent
weeks, having caught just one total pass over his past two games.
Instead it has been rookie Stefon Diggs who seems to be establishing
himself as Bridgewater’s preferred target. While he struggled
a bit in Week 9, catching just three passes for 42 yards, Diggs
has made a total of 28 receptions for 461 yards and two touchdowns
over his past five games.
Diggs has become an intriguing fantasy option in an otherwise
useless Vikings passing game and he does have a great matchup
as he goes up against a porous Oakland secondary that is on pace
to give up over 5,200 passing yards this season. That would not
only break, but shatter the all-time record for the most passing
yards given up in a season by a team. The Vikings pass offense
certainly hasn’t been anything special and Bridgewater is
tough to trust right now even in two-QB leagues, but Diggs does
have some serious potential here as a WR2 or Flex play. He’s
getting targeted a ton and the Raiders simply don’t have
anyone who can take him away. Another potentially interesting
fantasy option this week is tight end Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph hasn’t
caught more than two passes in a game since Week 2, but he’s
made three touchdown receptions on the season and is going up
against an Oakland defense that has given up more fantasy points
per game to opposing tight ends than any other team. They’ve
also given up nine touchdowns to the position on the year, so
there’s a real possibility that Rudolph finds some room
in the end zone here in Week 10.
Running Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but the “disappointing”
Adrian Peterson currently leads the NFL in rushing. Peterson’s
758 rushing yards put him on pace for over 1,500 on the year,
which is certainly good enough to be a high-end fantasy RB1. Still,
fantasy owners are used to the Peterson who seemingly scores at
will and he has not been able to do that so far this year. Other
than 2014 when he was suspended, Peterson has never failed to
score double-digit touchdowns in a season. Yet with only four
scores so far this season, Peterson will need to pick up the pace
in the second half if he hopes to reach that 10 touchdown mark
yet again. Still, those who are complaining of Peterson’s
lack of touchdowns would do well to remember that he is by far
the highest scoring back of those who were typically taken in
the first round of fantasy drafts and with back-to-back 100-plus
yard rushing days, there is no reason to think that he won’t
finish the season as one of the top scorers at the position.
Peterson’s Week 10 matchup looks great as he and the Vikings
head to Oakland to face a Raiders defense that is fresh off of
allowing a whopping 173 yards and two touchdowns to DeAngelo Williams
and the Steelers running backs. While they’ve done a good
job against the run in some games, including their Week 8 matchup
against Chris Ivory, the Raiders have also been exposed in a few
games. If there’s any running back who has the ability to
absolutely punish a defense, it’s Peterson, who might just
be the top back in fantasy for the second half of the season.
The Vikings need to get their passing game on track and the Raiders
are certainly a team to do that against, it’s very likely
that Peterson touches the ball 20-plus times in this contest,
which will almost certainly make him an RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s always great to see a young passing
game develop and that’s what we’re seeing happening
before our very eyes in Oakland. Second-year quarterback Derek
Carr has matured and has found an impressive chemistry with his
top two receivers, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Both receivers
have been getting it done from a fantasy perspective with Crabtree
currently checking in as the No. 12-scoring wide receiver in standard
scoring formats while Cooper is not far behind at 18th. Both receivers
have made at least four receptions in every single game, which
has given them an impressive floor to go along with some nice
high scoring games. The duo has only been getting better, too,
as they’ve made a total of six touchdown receptions over
their past three games. Carr himself has been getting it done,
as well, as he has thrown an impressive 11 touchdowns over that
same three game span. Rookie tight end Clive Walford has been
a quality red zone target, having scored twice in his past three
games, but has not yet much of a fantasy option until he starts
to prove that he can be more consistent.
This high-powered Oakland passing game might have a bit tougher
of a time here in Week 10, however, as they host a Minnesota defense
that has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to
opposing quarterbacks so far this season. While the Vikings have
only faced one “elite” passing game, San Diego, they
have done a great job of containing opposing passing games thus
far, having not allowed more than two passing touchdowns in any
game. This past week, the Vikings held Nick Foles and the Rams
to just 168 passing yards and no touchdowns and they haven’t
allowed a 300-yard passer since that Week 3 matchup against the
Chargers. Still, Oakland is one of the hottest passing games in
all of football right now and it wouldn’t be all that surprising
to see Carr, Crabtree and Cooper become the first passing game
to throw for three scores against the Vikings so far this year.
We’ll temper our expectations a bit in our projections out
of respect for the Vikings pass defense, but this Raiders offense
appears to be the real deal.
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Latavius Murray was on his
way to his third 100-yard rushing day of the season this past
week against the Steelers when he suffered a concussion, which
knocked him out for the remainder of the game. Murray did rush
for 96 yards on 17 carries before being hurt, so it wasn’t
all bad, but fantasy owners would’ve liked to have seen
their young running back get into the end zone and eclipse the
century mark for the second straight week. Murray has been going
through the league’s concussion testing protocol throughout
the week and while he has been participating in practice, there
is no guarantee that he will be cleared to play on Sunday.
If he does suit up, Murray will be running against a Minnesota
defense that has been quite good against opposing running games
so far in 2015. Since their disastrous meltdown back in Week 1,
only one team – Denver – has seen their running backs
rush for over 100 yards against Minnesota. In addition to that,
the Vikings have given up just two rushing touchdowns over their
past seven games. Needless to say, this isn’t an easy game
and Murray isn’t at 100 percent, so this is a somewhat risky
fantasy situation. Still, if he’s healthy, Murray almost
has to be in fantasy lineups as a Flex at the very least. He’s
had 85 or more rushing yards in each of his past three games and
with the Oakland passing game working as well as it has been,
he should have at least a few opportunities to carry the ball
in the red zone. If Murray is unable to go, the Raiders will likely
run a full running back by committee between the likes of Taiwan
Jones, Marcel Reece and possibly even Roy Helu and/or Jamize Olawale.
None of these players are trustworthy for fantasy purposes, however.
Passing
Game Thoughts: An odd breakout week for Alex Smith in Week
8 might have fantasy owners a bit more intrigued about the Kansas
City offense here in Week 10. Smith threw for two touchdowns in
what was just his second multi-touchdown performance of the season,
but it was his 78 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown that capped
off what was a huge day for the former No. 1 overall NFL Draft
pick. Smith’s rushing performance reminds us that he is
more mobile than some believe, but that total will almost certainly
be his highest total of the season, so don’t go overboard
with your expectations. What was great to see from a fantasy standpoint
is that Smith found both of his top two fantasy weapons in the
passing game, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin, for touchdowns.
It was the first time this season that both players have scored
a touchdown in the same game and it was Kelce’s first score
since all the way back in Week 1.
Although there were encouraging things about what Smith and the
Chiefs did through the air back in Week 8 prior to their bye,
now is not the time to be rolling the dice with Smith in your
fantasy lineup. The Denver defense has asserted themselves as
the best in football, having conceded just three double-digit
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Had it not
been for a gutty performance from Andrew Luck a week ago, the
Denver defense might be averaging nearly three fantasy points
per game fewer to opposing QB’s than any other team in the
league. As it stands, they’re still two points per game
fewer, which is extremely impressive and makes it tough to trust
anyone against them. The only “must-start” in the
Chiefs passing game is Kelce, who remains a rock solid TE1 and
is typically Smith’s first read in the red zone.
Running Game Thoughts: Someone didn’t give the Chiefs the
memo that their running game was supposed to be useless once Jamaal
Charles went down with a season-ending ACL tear. New starter Charcandrick
West struggled in his first start, rushing for just 33 yards on
nine carries, but he has since become arguably the focal point
of the Kansas City offense. Over his past two starts, West has
compiled a total of 207 rushing yards and two touchdowns while
adding 44 yards as a receiver. He’s not nearly as versatile
as Charles, but West has proven the ability to contribute as a
fantasy starter.
Unfortunately, West’s hot streak might be coming to an
end here in Week 10 as he will be up against a Denver run defense
that has allowed just one team to rush for 100 yards against them
so far this season. The Broncos’ pass defense has certainly
been stronger than their run defense, however, so there is some
hope for West. The Broncos have conceded nine total touchdowns
to opposing running backs so far this season, which is more than
one per game. While West is not a superstar by any means, bye
weeks and injuries at the position have made him a must-start
for many owners here in Week 10, even in what would be considered
a fairly difficult matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Many fantasy experts suggested staying away
from Peyton Manning coming into the 2015 season, but even the
most skeptical critic couldn’t have possibly seen these
struggles coming. Manning has thrown just nine touchdown passes
in eight games this season, including three games where he failed
to throw a single touchdown. Worse yet, he’s thrown a whopping
13 interceptions, putting him on pace for a career-worst 26 on
the season. This inefficiency has nearly been a killer for the
Broncos in numerous games, who have been riding the league’s
best defense to a lead in the AFC West. With Manning’s struggles
have come up-and-down performances even from the team’s
top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Thomas
and Sanders have both had big games, but they’ve rarely
been able to do it in the same game, which has made it very frustrating
to own them. The team did make a move to improve their passing
game by trading for tight end Vernon Davis before the deadline,
but he failed to make a catch while the team’s other tight
end, Owen Daniels, made a season high six catches for 102 yards
and a touchdown.
Now with Sanders nursing an ankle injury that could keep him
out of Week 10’s contest, or at least hamper him a bit,
this Denver passing game becomes an even bigger question mark.
If Sanders is unable to play, the Kansas City offense will almost
certainly key in on taking away Thomas as no other pass catcher
in this offense has been able to produce with any sort of consistency.
Of course, Sanders being out would also likely mean additional
targets for Thomas so it might not affect his numbers much, but
it certainly limits Manning’s upside. Interestingly enough,
Manning did have his best game of the season thus far against
this Chiefs defense back in Week 2, and that came in Kansas City.
With this game being in Denver, perhaps Manning can get back on
track here in Week 10 in what could be a very important divisional
matchup. Unfortunately, Manning has done enough damage to his
relationship with fantasy owners that he will be out of most lineups
– and rightfully so.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been an extremely frustrating season
for those who opted to take Denver running back C.J. Anderson
in their fantasy football drafts. The consensus first round fantasy
pick currently ranks 46th at the position in standard scoring
leagues. Not only that, but he has failed to exceed six fantasy
points (standard scoring) in all but one game this year. Anderson
is now officially the “1B” behind Ronnie Hillman,
who seems to fit the Gary Kubiak offense much better. What has
been frustrating, though, is that both backs had big games in
Week 9 against a good Packers defense, only to turn around and
give their fantasy owners absolute duds in Week 10 against what
was perceived to be a substantially worse Colts defense. Those
types of head-scratching performances have been commonplace for
the Broncos this season, though, which has made them one of the
more annoying offenses to try to predict from a fantasy standpoint.
In Week 10, the Hillman/Anderson duo will be running against
a Kansas City run defense that ranks inside the top 10 in fewest
fantasy points allowed per game to opposing running backs so far.
They were abused to the tune of four touchdowns by the Bengals
duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard back in Week 4, but they
have not allowed a rushing score in any other game this season.
It’s also worth considering that Kansas City’s best
game against opposing running backs happened back in Week 2 when
they faced Denver. On that day, the Broncos ran the ball a total
of 21 times for just 61 yards. With the Broncos offense struggling
to find any sort of consistency, this just doesn’t look
like a good time to trust either Hillman or Anderson for fantasy
purposes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The return to fantasy dominance for Carson
Palmer in 2015 continued the last time we saw the Cardinals, back
in Week 8 when he threw for four touchdowns along with 374 yards
and only one interception. Palmer’s 20 touchdowns through
the first half of the season put him on pace for 40 and he’s
also trending near 4800 passing yards. If he were able to continue
at that pace, Palmer would be putting together one of the better
fantasy seasons in the history of the league and to do that at
his age, after the numerous terrible injuries he’s suffered,
is nothing short of incredible. Along with Palmer’s resurgence
has been Larry Fitzgerald’s return to prominence. Fitzgerald
leads the team in all fantasy categories for receivers with 55
receptions for 706 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s been
a sure-fire WR1 this season. A player who has really broken out
recently in the Cardinals offense has been Michael Floyd. Floyd
was practically completely irrelevant in 2014 and did nothing
of value through the first five weeks of the season, but he has
since become a prominent member of the passing game once again.
Floyd has made 12 receptions for 215 yards over his past three
games and he has scored in each contest. Unfortunately, second-year
wideout John Brown has been dealing with a hamstring injury which
kept him on the sidelines in Week 8, breaking what had been a
solid string of fantasy production throughout the season.
Now having spent two full weeks recovering, Brown is expected
to be active – and on the field – for the Cardinals
here in Week 10. However, the discussion now turns to if he should
be in your fantasy lineup, and that’s not quite so clear
as he and the Cardinals will be up against a Seattle defense that
has allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL so far this season.
Not only that, but they’ve also given up just six passing
touchdowns on the year, including back-to-back ridiculous games
in Weeks 8 and 9 against the 49ers and Cowboys where they conceded
a total of just 221 yards and no touchdowns. Obviously the Arizona
passing game is moving the ball much more efficiently than the
49ers and Cowboys, but the Seahawks secondary is back to being
elite after struggling a bit earlier this year and there may be
situations where fantasy owners want to bench their Cardinals,
depending on their other options.
Running Game Thoughts: It seems like the Cardinals are rolling
out the “all old men” offense these days, but it’s
been working for them. Much of that can be attributed to the resurgence
of running back Chris Johnson, who is on pace to rush for more
than 1,300 yards this season. While Johnson hasn’t been
much of a factor on the running game, he’s been good enough
as a runner to be an RB1 at the position in standard scoring formats.
This has continued even despite impressive performances by David
Johnson and the healthy return of Andre Ellington, who started
the season atop the Cardinals’ depth chart before getting
injured. Ellington and D. Johnson combined for just four total
carries in Week 8 while CJ2K was trusted to take 30 carries.
The Cardinals will need Johnson to be at the top of his game
if they’re going to run the ball effectively here in Week
10 against a very good Seattle run defense. No team has allowed
fewer points to fantasy running backs this season (standard scoring)
than the Seahawks. They’ve only given up two total touchdowns
to opposing running backs on the year – both of which came
in Week 6 against the Panthers – and it doesn’t seem
likely that Johnson, who has scored only three times himself this
season, is going to get into the end zone. Still, Johnson remains
a viable RB2 this week even in a tough matchup due to the amount
of work he’s been getting. As long as the Cardinals don’t
get blown out, Johnson should be a lock to get at least 15 carries
with 25 carries being the high end of what is likely.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When the Seahawks signed Jimmy Graham this
offseason, the hype surrounding Russell Wilson got even bigger.
Wilson finished as the No. 3 quarterback in 2014 and the expectation
was that he could get close to that, or even exceed it, in 2015.
That, however, has not been the case. Despite throwing a touchdown
in every game so far this season, Wilson has only thrown nine
total touchdown passes in eight games. His rushing yardage has
also taken a significant step back as he is only on pace to barely
crack 600 yards after rushing for 849 yards in 2014. Worse yet,
after rushing for six touchdowns in 2014, Wilson has not yet ran
for a touchdown here in 2015. As has been the case throughout
Wilson’s tenure as the Seattle quarterback, none of his
wide receivers have been particularly fantasy relevant this season
and despite a huge contract, Graham has been a huge bust for the
Seahawks at this point, having caught a total of just 38 passes
for 450 yards and two touchdowns.
The Seahawks have had an extra week to prepare for this game,
but going up against an Arizona defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks is not particularly inspiring
for fantasy owners. Arizona has allowed 13 passing touchdowns
which isn’t great, but they’ve made opposing quarterbacks
pay by matching that total with 13 interceptions forced. Wilson
himself has had success against the Cardinals in recent matchups,
including a huge game in Week 16 of the 2015 season when he passed
for 339 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 88 yards
and a touchdown. If he could do something like that again, fantasy
owners might begin to trust him in their starting lineup, but
the way he has been playing as of late makes him no better than
a slight above average streaming option at the quarterback position.
Graham, meanwhile, has performed as a low-end TE1, but fantasy
owners might be able to find a better matchup as he will be going
up against an Arizona defense that has conceded the third-fewest
fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far in 2015.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch has long been one of the
most consistent, high-end running backs in fantasy football, but
2015 has been a huge disappointment for the Seahawks as a whole,
but particularly Lynch. While he missed two games and the better
part of another, even when he’s been healthy, Lynch has
largely been a bust. He’s scored just two touchdowns on
the season and has averaged only 72 yards on the ground in his
other five starts. Worse yet is that Lynch, after catching 37
passes a season ago, is on pace to catch just 24 passes this year.
Still, it’s hard to bench a guy who has been as good as
Lynch throughout his career and who is almost certain to carry
the ball 20-plus times per week.
Lynch does have a tough matchup in Week 10 as he’s up against
the Cardinals who have allowed just one 100-yard rusher on the
year and have allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the year.
While they’ve been exploitable by pass-catching running
backs, Lynch has not proven to be much of a threat in that area
throughout his career and certainly not this year. Lynch’s
recent games against the Cardinals defense have been hit-or-miss
as evidenced by his two games he played against them in 2014.
His home game against the Cardinals back in Week 12 of the 2014
season was a disaster as he rushed for just 39 yards on 15 carries
without a touchdown. He turned in a huge performance when the
Seahawks went to Arizona, however, as he rushed for an impressive
113 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 carries. He’ll likely
finish somewhere between those games here in Week 10.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Cassel took over as the Cowboys’
starting quarterback and performed as one might expect –
at least through two games. But last week against the Eagles he
delivered 299 yards and a trio of touchdown throws, to the shock
of pretty much everyone. His main target in the contest was Cole
Beasley, who was targeted 11 times and had nine catches for 112
yards and two scores, while Dez Bryant added 104 yards and a touchdown,
and Jason Witten chipped in with 43 yards on six receptions. This
week, Bryant is an unquestioned WR1 (health permitting) and the
only Cowboy that should be utilized in standard leagues, though
Cassel could be an option in leagues that use two quarterbacks
due to his match-up with Tampa.
The Buccaneers are tied with the Cowboys for 10th in the league
in pass defense, and are ranked 18th in three different categories:
yards per attempt allowed, interceptions, and sacks. Those are
decent enough numbers, but they haven’t helped when it comes
to stopping quarterbacks fling the ball in the end zone, because
only New Orleans has surrendered more passing scores than Tampa.
Those touchdowns are the biggest reason why the Bucs have allowed
the fifth-most FPts/G in the NFL to quarterbacks and the fourth-most
to wideouts, though they are in the middle of the league in terms
of points ceded to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: With Joseph
Randle having been jettisoned, Darren McFadden shouldered the
load last week against Philly with 27 carries and 117 yards. His
value clearly jumped with Randle’s exit, but fantasy owners
shouldn’t get carried away considering McFadden’s
history of injuries and underperformance.
Still, by virtue of the number of carries he’ll get, the
Arkansas product could be a decent flex play versus the Buccaneers.
Tampa is 15th in the league against the run, but is tied for ninth
in rushing scores allowed, and just three teams are giving up
fewer yards per carry. They are permitting the 13th-fewest FPts/G
to running backs, a ranking that would be better if they hadn’t
given up three receiving scores to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston managed a respectable 247
passing yards last week against the Giants, and didn’t toss
an interception, but he also failed to throw a touchdown for the
first time in his brief career. With Winston still maturing and
Vincent Jackson injured, Mike Evans is the only player in the
Buccaneers’ passing game that is a viable fantasy candidate.
The wideout piled up 150 yards last week on a whopping 19 targets,
and should continue to see a ton of looks even when Jackson and
tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins return. Evans is someone fantasy
owners have to put into their lineups, though his match-up with
the Cowboys is a tough one.
As mentioned above, Dallas is tied with Tampa for 10th in the
NFL in pass defense. They’re also 19th in yards per pass
attempt given up, 25th in sacks, and the three interceptions they’ve
accumulated are tied for last in the league. Still, unlike their
counterparts this week, the Cowboys have kept the ball from crossing
the goal line, having allowed the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns
in the league. A lack of scores means a dearth of fantasy points,
and as such Dallas has given up the fifth-fewest FPts/G to both
quarterbacks and wide receivers, and the ninth-fewest to tight
ends.
Running Game Thoughts: After a great
month of October, Doug Martin has come back to earth his last
two games, including an 11-carry, 31-yard effort last week against
New York. He is the team’s main ball-carrier though, and
a particularly viable fantasy option this week against Dallas,
who has had their difficulties stopping opposing runners this
season.
The Cowboys rank 18th in the league against the run, are 20th
in yards per carry allowed, and have given up nine rushing scores
this year, which is tied for third-most in the NFL. Add to that
the fact that Dallas has surrendered the third-most receiving
yards to running backs, and you have a team that has allowed the
second-most FPts/G in the league to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton completed just half of his 30
throws last week against the Packers, but those 15 connections
accounted for 297 yards and three touchdowns, and he’s now
fourth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks. Tight end Greg Olsen
added 66 yards and a score to maintain his place among the top
tight ends, and that’s where the fantasy relevance stops
for the Carolina passing game. It’s impossible to predict
which of the team’s wideouts will step up each week, and
the inconsistency combined with the often paltry output means
they should be ignored. That leaves Newton and Olsen as the team’s
fantasy options, and each should be starters this week against
the Titans.
Tennessee gave up oodles of yards and scores to Drew Brees last
week, and for the season is allowing an average of 8.0 yards per
pass attempt. Those should be indications of a struggling pass
defense, but other numbers tell a different story. The Titans
are third in the NFL against the pass, and are in the top-10 in
both sacks and interceptions. They’ve also allowed the 12th-most
fantasy points to quarterbacks and the seventh-most to tight ends,
but have been a bit better than league average against wideouts.
The truth with the Tennessee pass defense is that they haven’t
faced many elite passers and though they probably aren’t
one of the five best in the league, they likely aren’t as
bad as Brees made them look.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart had a solid three-game stretch in which he didn’t
post elite numbers but did contribute plenty for his fantasy owners.
That wasn’t the case last week against Green Bay, as Stewart
managed just 66 yards on 20 carries, though Newton – who
leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (343) and rushing scores
(five) – compiled 57 yards and a score. Stewart is nursing
an ankle injury, and though he should be fine to play, his fantasy
viability is limited to lower-tier flex status against Tennessee.
The Titans are 17th in the NFL against the run, 20th in rushing
touchdowns permitted, and 15th in yards per carry allowed. However,
they’ve also given up the fewest receiving yards in the
league to running backs and are one of just five squads who have
yet to allow a back to score via reception, which is a chief reason
why they have allowed the fifth-fewest FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota had a monster game last week,
with 371 yards and four touchdowns, numbers that are impressive
even taking into consideration he did so against the defensively
challenged Saints. Two of those touchdowns, and 95 of the yards,
went to tight end Delanie Walker, who is creeping up the scoring
list for tight ends. Mariota also connected with Harry Douglas
and fellow rookie Dorial-Green Beckham for over 70 yards each,
though both wideouts benefitted from the absence of Kendall Wright
due to injury. As impressive as Mariota was last week, and at
other times this year, he should probably be on the bench come
Sunday against Carolina, as should every other Titan involved
in the passing game, with the exception of Walker.
Unlike with Tennessee, there is no ambiguity concerning the Panthers’
pass defense – they’re one of the league’s best,
despite the huge numbers they gave up to Aaron Rodgers last week
(which happens from time to time with Rodgers). They rank 12th
in yards surrendered per game, eighth in touchdowns given up,
fourth in sacks, and are tied for the top spot in yards per pass
attempt allowed and interceptions. The Panthers have permitted
the 10th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the eighth-fewest to
wide receivers, but are in the middle of the pack when it comes
to points given up to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The Titans
seem to have finally found their lead running back in Antonio
Andrews. The second-year Western Kentucky product has gotten increased
carries (and yards) in four straight games, topped by a 19-tote,
88-yard performance last week against New Orleans. Andrews has
legitimate fantasy value now, and is a decent RB2 option against
the Panthers.
Carolina has not been nearly as stout against the run as they
have the pass, ranking in a tie for 15th in rushing yards per
game allowed and touchdowns ceded, and placing 19th in yards per
carry given up. They are also one of the 10 worst teams in the
NFL in receiving yards surrendered to running backs, which is
part of the reason they have allowed the 13th-most FPts/G to players
at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was reported this week that Matthew Stafford
never bought into former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s
system. New Coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter, has said the team will
return to the basics that made Stafford and the passing game a
success in the past. The first week under Cooter in Week 8 did
not provide great results but perhaps over the bye week the wrinkles
have been ironed out. Lombardi, by design (and perhaps by necessity
based on the Detroit o-line) had Stafford getting the ball out
quickly and the offense based on short passes. With deep threats
like Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, perhaps that wasn’t
the best approach. Johnson and Tate have the abilities to challenge
defenses deep and were stymied at times by the Lombardi offense.
Second year tight end Eric Ebron, did make strides however after
a disappointing rookie season and hopefully his development will
continue under Cooter. Veteran Lance Moore has seized the third
receiver role and has resurrected his career a bit after an unsuccessful
stint in Pittsburgh, but it could have been his familiarity with
the Saints’ system after spending his first eight seasons
with Lombardi who modeled his system after his former mentor Sean
Payton. With Lombardi gone, Moore’s role may become reduced.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 257 yards per game
with 10 touchdowns thus far in 2015. Their fierce pass rush led
by Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews has 23 sacks on the season
already and could cause major problems for Stafford sitting behind
the aforementioned porous Detroit offensive line. While the Lions
would like to return to their deep passing game of years past,
ironically the Lombardi short passing offense may be the better
bet for moving the ball against the Pack.
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah
has been highly disappointing after all of the hype he received
during the preseason, and when the Lions last played he saw only
one carry on the day. Last season’s leading rusher Joique
Bell was back in the lead role after being a non factor most of
the season due to multiple injuries and a lost offseason. In Week
8, Bell looked better than he had at any point in the season,
but at 29 years old and starting to break down, it would be difficult
to recommend him in fantasy even if he does become the team’s
feature back. Scat-back Theo Riddick has been the one bright spot
in the running game, and he has seen his role expand in favor
of Abdullah. He’s no longer just being used as passing down
back, and has shown outstanding quickness even when asked to run
between the tackles, but his bread is still buttered by his receiving
ability. Riddick is on pace to finish the season with 84 receptions
and is the preferred back when the team is playing from behind
– something that they do quite often.
The Packers are a well below average run defense, allowing 125.1
yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. Ideally
the Lions will be looking to exploit this weakness which would
also help keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, but it’s likely
that their best laid plans will go astray. The team will likely
be forced to put the ball up in the air in what could be a high
scoring contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was starting to look like we may have
been experiencing the unthinkable last week. Aaron Rodgers was
in the middle of his second consecutive terrible game, until he
and the Packers’ offense were able to get things turned
around in the second half of their loss to the Panthers. Rodgers
finished with 369 yards and 4 touchdowns, which was a stark contrast
from is 77-yard effort in Week 8. Randle Cobb had been slowed
with a shoulder injury for most of 2015, but also bounced back
catching a 53-yard touchdown, his first since Week 3. Cobb finished
with 99 yards on the day, and is a safe bet to return to form
against the lesser opponents on the schedule in the coming weeks.
Cobb has not only had to deal with his preseason shoulder injury
but also adjust to not having Jordy Nelson on the field to garner
attention. The return of Davante Adams who missed four games with
an ankle injury helped with the latter part, as Adams at 6’1”
215 pounds can challenge a defense in some (but not all) of the
same ways that Nelson could. Adams chipped in with 7 catches for
93 yards and Rodgers now has his full allotment of pass catchers
back together, minus Nelson. The Packers are also starting to
get good production from their second year tight end Richard Rodgers,
who scored twice so they no longer need veteran James Jones to
do all of the heavy lifting like he was earlier in the season.
Returning to Lambeau to face the soft pass defense of a division
rival should be all the Packers need to keep last week’s
second half momentum going and to end their two-game losing streak.
On the season the Lions’ pass defense is allowing 252 yards
per game with 14 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions. They
have generated 20 sacks on the season so Rodgers could be under
some duress, but mostly it should be easy pickins for Mr. Rodgers.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
suffered a groin injury last week and has been slowed down by
various nicks and bruises all season. He suffered an ankle injury
earlier in the season and while he played through it, he appeared
to be slowed down a bit. He’s also appeared to be overweight,
which has made him look like he’s running in sand at times.
Last week he finished with a negative one point in leagues that
deduct for fumbles, which could make fantasy owners extremely
hesitant to stick him back out there until he shows something.
Veteran backup James Starks meanwhile has taken advantage of his
extra playing time and has been everything that Lacy owners were
expecting form the big back and not his handcuff. Starks totaled
122 yards and a score, with most coming from receptions while
the team was in catch-up mode. He has earned more playing time
at Lacy’s expense and was named the team’s starter
this week by head coach Mike McCarthy. It’s a difficult
situation for fantasy owners right now. Inserting either back
into your line-up will be dependent on your other options since
the potential risk and reward are high depending on how touches
are distributed. For now, Starks is the safer option.
The reason why the potential reward is so high is because the
Lions present tissue paper like resistance against the run. The
Lions have allowed 133.8 rushing yards per game and have yielded
a league leading 15 rushing touchdowns to their opponents. The
sound you’re hearing is Lacy owners banging their heads
on the wall.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen
Hurns are the first set of teammates to each have at least 600
receiving yards and 6 touchdowns after eight weeks since Randy
Moss and Wes Welker in 2007. That alone should be a good indicator
of the progress that second year quarterback Blake Bortles has
made for Jacksonville. Bortes has put up a 2,193-17-10 stat-line
in eight games after finishing with 2,908-17-11 in 14 games last
season. He has also increased his yards per attempt by a full
yard this season. When you consider that Bortles adds 22.3 yards
per game on the ground, you have the makings of a decent QB1.
Bortles has looked much sharper and has handled the pass rush
much better in year two. He has only had the services of prized
offseason acquisition Julius Thomas for half of the games this
season, so even more improvement could be on the horizon. The
Jaguars have been a far more competitive team and it’s been
their offense that has kept them in most of their games. Fantasy
owners should be aware that Allen Hurns (foot) has missed practice
time this week and his Week 10 status is up in the air. Bryan
Walters would likely replace Hurns in the line-up assuming Marqius
Lee does not return after being out all season.
Baltimore’s pass defense has held up a few times this season,
mostly against washed up quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and
Michael Vick, but has yielded big numbers during most weeks. On
the season the Ravens are allowing 283.9 passing yards per game
and have allowed 16 passing touchdowns with only 3 interceptions
in eight games this season. This should be a favorable matchup
for a Jacksonville passing offense that comes in with some confidence
after putting up 381 yards against one of the league’s top
defenses last week.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie T.J.
Yeldon has had a solid, if unspectacular, first half of his rookie
season. He has missed one game with a groin injury and has averaged
67.1 yards per game on the ground with a touchdown while also
catching 19 balls for 119 yards and another touchdown. At 6’1”
225 pounds Yeldon is a powerful runner who should now see more
goal-line carries after backup Toby Gerhart failed to deliver
in that role. Yeldon has gained his coaching staff’s confidence
and is now one of the rare bell cow backs that don’t leave
the field very often. As the young offensive line jells during
the season, Yeldon could have some major upside over the course
of the season’s final eight games.
However, the sledding will be tough this week as the Ravens run
defense is still one of the best in the league. Through eight
weeks the Ravens are allowing only 99.8 rushing yards per game
with 5 rushing scores.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens passing game suffered a major
blow when veteran Steve Smith suffered a torn Achilles injury
in the Ravens last game before their bye week. Without Smith an
already depleted receiving corps becomes barren. Smith joins Breshad
Perriman, Michael Campanaro, Darren Waller and tight end Dennis
Pitta on the sidelines leaving Joe Flacco with arguably the worst
group of pass catchers in the league. The Ravens will now be starting
Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens with Jeremy Ross in the slot. Flacco’s
play has suffered this season as a result of the lack of weapons
in the passing game and he’s on pace to finish with only
20 touchdowns against 16 interceptions on the season. It’s
a situation to avoid in all but the deepest of leagues, but perhaps
Aiken and tight end Crockett Gillmore could have some value in
ppr leagues just based on volume alone as they are the only players
that have Flacco’s trust at this point.
One thing in Flacco’s favor this week is the level of competition
that he will be facing. The Jaguars are the 22nd ranked pass defense
and are allowing 263.4 per game and have given up 14 TDs through
the air.
Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett
has not fallen on his face following a career year at 29 years
old in 2014, but he hasn’t lit the world on fire either.
He’s averaging a respectable 4.2 yards per carry, but he’s
only scored two touchdowns and he isn’t being used as much
in the passing game as he was last season. That may change given
the loss of Steve Smith, but the truth of the matter is that a
30 year-old career journeyman isn’t likely to turn things
around dramatically half way through a season. His rookie backup,
Buck Allen, could be worked in more to see if he could handle
the lead back role in 2016, but he looks more like a solid backup
runner than a feature back and the Ravens are likely aware of
that. However, Allen is a tough runner with decent agility so
if there is a changing of the guard and he is given a chance to
lead the team in carries down the stretch, his fresh legs could
just do some damage. He could be a good speculative add in redraft
leagues (he’s likely already owned in dynasty leagues).
The Jaguars have been surprisingly tough against the run this
season. The team is allowing only 94.3 rushing yards per game
with 8 rushing touchdowns allowed.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head Coach Mike Pettine has announced this
week that Josh McCown will regain his starting quarterback role
as soon as he is healthy. He has been a pleasant surprise for
Cleveland, throwing for 271 yards per game with an 11:4 touchdown
to interception ratio on the season. He has however also shown
a penchant for getting nicked up due to his reckless style, missing
time with a concussion, a shoulder injury and last week’s
game and with a rib injury suffered against Arizona. It remains
to be seen if he will make it back for this week’s game
against his team’s most hated rival, but he has been practicing
on a limited basis. Last Thursday night, the troubled Johnny Manziel
got the start and performed admirably while keeping his overmatched
team in the game against one of the best teams in the league.
He also showed his shortcomings, his inability to make it through
his progressions before taking off running and his spotty accuracy.
While at this point in a lost season one could argue that the
Browns would be better off seeing what they have in the young
signal caller before they must make a decision on the future at
the position, it would be unfair to bench McCown based on what
he’s done for the team. Gary Barnidge entered last week’s
game with 40 receptions for 567 yards with 6 touchdowns, but he
doesn’t have the rapport with Johnny Football that he does
with the veteran McCown and was held to 2 receptions for 35 yards
against the Bengals. Barnidge at 6’6” and 250 pounds
has been a redzone monster for McCown and should continue to flourish
when McCown is under center. Manziel will need to find a way to
utilize his big tight end if he wants to show progress with his
development before the Browns make their offseason decision on
which direction they will go in 2016. My guess is that McCown
will be under center on Sunday, but if Manziel is starting, there
should be a downgrade to the Browns entire passing game.
The young Steelers’ secondary has been a little better than
advertised this season, but at times have shown their inexperience.
Last week they were lit up by the suddenly potent Oakland passing
game and are now allowing 273 passing yards per game with 16 passing
touchdowns. They don’t give up a ton of big plays, but have
been picked apart by short passes. This will be a favorable matchup
for the unit against either quarterback as the Browns lack any
serious weapons in the passing game, but it’s not out of
the question for them to make a few costly mistakes.
Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland
running game rotation became a little clearer last week with Robert
Turbin benched and subsequently released. Going forward, Isaiah
Crowell should see much of the heavy lifting with rookie Duke
Johnson being mixed in and handling most of the passing game work.
Head Coach Mike Pettine has expressed a desire to get the rookie
Johnson more involved, but so far he hasn’t been utilized
enough, although he did haul in Manziel’s only touchdown
pass last week. Crowell started off the game running well against
a tough Cincinnati defense, but as usual his team abandoned the
run after halftime leaving his statistical output lacking for
any fantasy owners desperate enough to start him. RB Glenn Winston
was activated from the PUP list and is said to have “shown
a lot of the practice field” and Pettine hinted that Winston
may get a shot in real games soon. Perhaps the Cleveland running
back rotation isn’t any clearer even with Turbin gone.
The Steelers’ run defense has been stout thus far and should
make it difficult for the Browns to establish a ground attack.
The team is allowing only 101.7 yards per game, and only 3 rushing
touchdowns on the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh passing game took a tremendous
hit earlier in the season when Ben Roethlisberger sprained his
MCL. They will now once again be without his services for at least
one game, after he sprained his foot late in the Oakland win.
Veteran Michael Vick was terrible replacing Big Ben earlier in
the season and yielded the job to Landry Jones who will now get
another start. Jones is completing 59.6 percent of his passes
for 456 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in one start
and two relief appearances. Wide Receiver Antonio Brown (and his
owners) finally got the chance to shine as Ben’s favorite
target last week, and will now have to hope the young Jones can
get him the ball consistently. Of course no one is expecting the
17 catches for 284 yards that Brown produced last week but the
6-for-124 he put up in Jones’ last start at Kansas City
would be nice. The 26 year-old Oklahoma product turned the ball
over three times in that game and offensive coordinator Todd Haley
called a conservative game, but Jones played reasonably well considering
the circumstances. The team is likely to play it close to the
vest once again and rely on the running game this week, so owners
will need to temper expectations, but Steeler pass catchers don’t
need to be avoided altogether.
One of the reasons to be hopeful about the passing attack is that
the Browns will be bringing the 26th ranked pass defense into
Pittsburgh and are allowing 254 yards per game and have given
up 18 TDs through the air with only 5 interceptions. The Browns’
should be up for their “Super Bowl Week” but it’s
unlikely to make much of a difference here unless Jones collapses.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo
Williams has found the fountain of youth after leaving Carolina
and has played beyond what anyone could have expected. The team
will need Williams now more than ever with Ben once again sidelined
and should feed him until he can’t run any longer. Last
week he ran for 170 yards with 2 scores while adding 55 receiving
yards and a two point conversion. Perhaps it was the heavy workload
which may have lead to Williams missing some practice time with
a swollen foot, but he is expected to be fine and play on Sunday.
Veteran Jordan Todman has shown some past success in Jacksonville
and is Williams’ backup. He could be a key handcuff with
the Steeler running game so successful thus far.
Perhaps it wouldn’t even matter if Williams missed the game
with the horrific Browns’ run defense being the opposition.
The Browns’ defense is allowing a league worst 147.6 yards
per game, at 4.7 yards per carry and has yielded 9 rushing touchdowns.
If Jones can play respectable enough to earn any attention at
all from the Browns defense, Williams is in line for another big
game this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Texans started off the season playing
musical chairs at the quarterback position, but with the release
of Ryan Mallett the team is stuck with Brian Hoyer for better
or for worse. To his credit, Hoyer didn’t pout after being
pulled in Week 1, and subsequently losing his starting job to
Mallett, but instead took advantage of his second chance. He has
played fairly well since being reinstated into the starting role
and has the Texans in contention to win the subpar AFC South.
In his six games he has put up an impressive 1,581-13-3 stat line,
albeit with a lot of the production coming with the Texans in
comeback mode. Hoyer is a limited quarterback with nice intangibles
and while it’s probably not the preferred option, he could
be auditioning to keep the job next season. As a plus, he is working
with one of the best young wide receivers in the game in DeAndre
Hopkins who has quieted critics that predicted he would struggle
as the WR1 with Andre Johnson no longer drawing coverage opposite
him. Hopkins already has 66 receptions for 870 yards and 6 touchdowns
in half a season. The Texans have a decent mix of veterans and
youth complementing Hopkins with veteran Nate Washington leading
the way. Washington has been producing somewhat under the radar
in the league for a good number of years and is in the midst of
one of his better seasons starting opposite Hopkins when healthy.
Cecil Shorts and rookies Keith Mumphery and Jalaen Strong have
also made contributions in the passing game.
The Bengals defense is allowing 244.1 passing yards per game while
giving up 10 passing touchdowns and grabbing 8 interceptions on
the season. This aggressive unit has already recorded 23 sacks
in seven games this season and could make it difficult for a passing
offense that is in the bottom five in net yards per attempt.
Running Game Thoughts: Houston has
been using an uninspiring committee at the running back position
since losing veteran bell cow back Arian Foster to a season ending
Achilles tear. Second year back Alfred Blue leads the way, but
has plodded his way to 3.3 yards per carry over the last two seasons.
Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk are the other two members of the
committee, but neither has shown well enough to push Blue out
of the way which doesn’t say much for them. This is a running
game to avoid in all but the deepest of leagues.
It isn’t very likely that Houston will be productive against
a Bengals team that has been very strong against the run anyway.
The Bengals have limited the opposition to 105 yards per game
this season with only 3 rushing touchdowns allowed. As has been
their pattern in most games this season, especially the ones without
Foster, expect the Texans to fall behind early and abandon the
run while they air it out in comeback mode.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton followed up his “down
week,” with a workman like 3-touchdown performance against
the Bengals cross state rivals in front of a national television
audience last Thursday. Dalton efficiently completed 21-of-27
passes for 234 yards in a game that was never really in doubt
for the undefeated leaders of the AFC North. Dalton has used all
of his weapons well this season, but last week it was tight end
Tyler Eifert’s time to shine grabbing all three of Dalton’s
scoring passes. A.J. Green, Mohamad Sanu and Marvin Jones all
helped keep the chains moving as they’ve done all season
for one of the best and deepest offenses in the league. The Bengals
o-line has contributed to the passing game’s success by
only allowing Dalton to be sacked 11 times on the season.
The Texans have been the rare “break but don’t bend
pass defenses” in 2015. While they have only allowed a top
ten 227 passing yards per game, they have yielded a bottom ten
16 passing touchdowns in eight games. They can still generate
a pass rush which should put some pressure on the Bengals’
o-line. Dalton has rarely been asked to perform while under siege
and has played mostly mistake free football. The Bengals would
love to see that continue.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals
have been a pure RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and
with an 8-0 record expect a case of “it it isn’t broke,
don’t fix it”. Both backs were effective last week
against Cleveland, but Bernard continues to look like the more
explosive and effective runner while Hill still hasn’t looked
anything like he did as a rookie. Hill was arguably the best back
in the league over the seasons last eight weeks in 2014, but he’s
looked far more sluggish and tentative while failing to even achieve
4 yards per carry for the season. Bernard meanwhile is averaging
an impressive 5.6 yards per carry, but for now, the Bengals seem
content to limit his carries and keep him fresh. Offensive Coordinator
Hue Jackson seems to have an affinity towards Hill, but there
could be a time when the team has no choice but to limit his carries
while Bernard’s snaps increase.
Expect both Hill and Bernard to see a decent amount of carries
and excel against a poor Texans’ run defense. The Houston
defense is allowing 123.5 yards per game on the ground and has
yielded 7 rushing touchdowns.
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