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Inside the Matchup
Week 8
10/24/14

By: Sal Marcoccio | Brian Thorne | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



SD @ DEN | DET @ ATL | MIN @ TB | HOU @ TEN

SEA @ CAR | MIA @ JAX | GB @ NO | CHI @ NE

BUF @ NYJ | WAS @ DAL | BAL @ CIN | OAK @ CLE

IND @ PIT | STL @ KC | PHI @ ARI
 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Smith 17 7 70.8
2 Caron 19 8 70.4
3 Thorne 19 10 65.5
4 Marcoccio 17 9 65.4

Chargers @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Consistent elite fantasy production has made Philip Rivers one of the highest scorers in all of fantasy football this season. Rivers has now passed for two or more touchdowns in each of his past six games and has thrown for three scores in four of his seven contests. The incredible thing has been that, of his 22 total scores, not a single one of them has gone to Keenan Allen, who was expected to be the team’s top-scoring receiver. Allen, who does lead the team with 34 receptions and is second with 354 receiving yards, has gone over 60 yards just once on the year and has just about fallen off the fantasy radar because of it. Meanwhile, veteran tight end Antonio Gates continues to surprise everyone by not only holding of Ladarius Green from taking his spot in the lineup, but by producing massive fantasy numbers. Gates has scored four touchdowns over the past three weeks and that, along with his three-touchdown performance back in Week 2, has made Gates the No. 3 tight end in fantasy football. Wide receiver Eddie Royal has taken a step back over the past three weeks as he has caught only six passes including one touchdown without having a game over 50 yards, but he is always a threat to get into the end zone.

This week, the Chargers’ high-powered passing attack will be in a favorable matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. While they have a pass rush that is capable of getting to Rivers, it would not be at all surprising to see this be the highest-scoring game of the week, and therefore you should probably be putting just about every one of these players into your fantasy lineup. Rivers is an absolute must-start until proven otherwise.

Running Game Thoughts: One of the breakout fantasy stars of the 2014 season has been running back Branden Oliver of the San Diego Chargers, whose short stature and familiar jersey number have many calling him “the new Darren Sproles.” Oliver is a slightly less speedy agile, but stronger version of Sproles, but the comparisons do make some sense. In his three games as the lead back for the Chargers, Oliver has compiled a total of 384 yards while scoring three touchdowns. While he had a disappointing performance against the Chiefs in Week 7 where he ran for just 67 yards and caught just two passes for eleven yards, Oliver has shown that he is more than capable of being a high quality fantasy producer and should be in most lineups even this week against a Denver defense that has looked great against the run all year.

The 310 yards they’ve allowed to the position on the ground are the fewest in the league, although it makes sense when you consider that opposing teams have only attempted a total of 107 rushes against them on the season, which is also fewest in the NFL. With the Chargers being one of the few teams that can realistically match firepower with the Denver offense, Oliver should have more opportunities than your average back does against the Broncos. If he touches the ball 15 times in this game, he should have a good chance to put up a good enough fantasy day to be a solid RB2.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 275 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Branden Oliver: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 70 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 40 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning is the single highest scoring player in the history of fantasy football. No, really, he is. It’s easy to forget just how dominant this guy has been over the course of his career, but during the Broncos’ blowout win over the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, we all got to see a piece of history as he surpassed Brett Favre’s single season NFL record for career passing touchdowns. Manning now sits alone atop the record books without a realistic competitor for his record coming anytime soon. You’d think that this was just a product of him playing for a very long time, but the truth is that Manning is arguably playing better right now than he ever has before. While he is slightly off his single season record-shattering touchdown pace from a season ago, Manning is still well on his way to having another third season of 45-plus touchdowns. These absurd numbers have meant amazing things for the Denver offense, and particularly “the Thomases,” Demaryius and Julius. Julius failed to catch a touchdown pass for the first time this year in Week 7, but is still on pace to blow past the single-season receiving touchdown record for the tight end position. Manning looks his way early and often just about every time the team is in the red zone and just because he didn’t score once doesn’t mean that you should have any concerns about playing him. Demaryius, on the other hand, continued the incredible pace that he has been on by catching eight passes for 171 yards and two scores against the 49ers. Thomas has now compiled 521 yards and five touchdowns in the three games since the Broncos’ bye week and could easily be considered the No. 1 wide receiver in all of fantasy football for the remainder of the year.

San Diego’s pass defense has been good this year, as they’ve allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but there is no question that fantasy owners should continue to put their Broncos into their lineup without much concern. Even Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker, who had been held scoreless thus far in 2014, were able to get into the end zone in Week 7, so this offense is firing on all cylinders now.

Running Game Thoughts: After two disappointing seasons as a pro, Denver running back Ronnie Hillman appears to finally be settling into his role in the Broncos’ offense as a “change of pace” for this incredible passing game. HIllman’s improved work as a pass protector for Manning has allowed the coaching staff to give him a green light to be the team’s every down back for the time being. Montee Ball will be back in a few weeks and we could see him get some work once he does return, but it would be hard for the Broncos to justify sitting Hillman at this point, who has delighted his fantasy owners to the tune of 283 total yards and two touchdowns since becoming the team’s starter back in Week 5. Given the fact that he will almost certainly touch the ball between 12-to-18 times per week in the NFL’s best offense as long as Ball is out, Hillman is essentially a lock to be a quality RB2 fantasy producer. Better yet, he has realistic RB1 upside not just for this week, but for the remainder of the season, even if Ball returns and continues to get some touches. In Week 8, Hillman will be running against a San Diego defense that had held opposing teams’ running games under 75 yards in each of their first five contests, but has since conceded 112 and 125 yards in back-to-back games. Hillman won’t likely get enough total carries to crack the 100-yard rushing mark in this contest, but 100 total yards isn’t out of the question and a touchdown is certainly a good possibility. Therefore he should be started in all formats until we see him prove otherwise.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 315 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Ronnie Hillman: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 60 rec yds, 2 TD

Prediction: Broncos 34, Chargers 27 ^ Top

Lions at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: A good way to describe the Detroit Lions passing attack as they take on the Falcons in London this week is “questionable.” It’s not the team’s talent we’re talking about, it’s their health. Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron and Reggie Bush are just some of the team’s offensive weapons hurting, and the status for each is up in the air. However, fantasy owners can still safely rely upon a pair of Lions this week in Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate. Each should be firmly entrenched in fantasy lineups against the Falcons shaky pass defense.

Atlanta is T-3rd in the league in TD passes surrendered, but don’t let that fool you – this is not a good pass defense. They are 29th in the NFL against the pass, and no team is allowing more yards per pass attempt. The Falcons are giving up the 12th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks, but that’s mostly because teams score on the ground against them. And though Atlanta has done well limiting tight ends – permitting the 4th-fewest FPts/G in the league to players at that position – they’ve allowed the 4th-most receiving yards and T-12th-most FPts/G to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned above, Bush is hurting, and though he still could suit up, will likely be limited, which means Joique Bell will get most of the work. He’s not running the ball wonderfully so far this season, averaging only 3.3 YPC, but does have three rushing scores and has an outstanding match-up this week against an Atlanta team that gives up oodles of rushing TDs.

The Falcons simply can’t stop teams from scoring on running plays, which is bad for them, but good for fantasy owners. Atlanta is 27th in the league in run defense, but last in rushing scores surrendered. In fact, the 13 rushing TDs, they’ve allowed is a full five more than any other team. The Falcons have also given up the third-most receiving yards in the league to running backs, and when you put all that in a pot and mix it up, you have a team that has easily allowed the most FPts/G in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 255 pass yds, 2 TD
Joique Bell: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Golden Tate: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Corey Fuller: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Ross: 30 rec yds
Brandon Pettigrew: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Though the Falcons have been as disappointing as any team in the league this season, from a fantasy perspective that hasn’t necessarily been the case. Matt Ryan is second in the league in passing yards and 6th among quarterbacks in fantasy points, the same position as Julio Jones ranks at WR. Roddy White is only 30th in fantasy points, but he did have nine receptions for 100 yards and a score last week, and remains a WR2 or WR3 most weeks. Unfortunately for White’s fantasy owners, he and his teammates in the passing game have a poor match-up with against Detroit.

The Lions have been shutting down opposing passing games all year. They rank 7th in the league in pass defense, are tied with Baltimore for fewest passing scores permitted, are 6th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and are T-3rd in interceptions. Drew Brees did have 342 yards and two TDs against the Lions last week, but the team is still allowing the fewest FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks. They’re middle of the road in terms of FPts/G to tight ends, but are tied for fewest TD receptions given up to wide receivers, and are allowing the second-fewest FPts/G to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t much to like concerning Atlanta’s running game, considering that Antone Smith leads their running backs in fantasy points but has only carried the ball 16 times all season. Steven Jackson remains the team’s lead back, but is rarely good as anything more than a flex play. He doesn’t even qualify for that this week against the stingy Detroit run defense.

As good as the Lions have been against the pass, they’ve been even better against the run. The team is 2nd in the league in run defense, T-5th in rushing scores given up, and is 4th in YPC allowed. No running back has had a game with at least 85 rushing yards when facing Detroit and only one has even broken 50 yards. They have allowed the 10th-fewest FPts/G to running backs, a number that should be better except for the fact that the Lions have surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards in the NFL to running backs.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 180 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Steven Jackson: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Julio Jones: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Devin Hester: 25 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Lions 24, Falcons 17 ^ Top

Vikings at Buccaneers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: It took four games, but Teddy Bridgewater finally threw his first TD pass of the season last week against Buffalo. Unfortunately, he also threw a pair of interceptions, and now has five picks on the season. The rookie is usually not a fantasy option, but this week against the horrendous Tampa pass defense, he should at least be considered for fantasy owners needing a QB due to a bye or injury. WR Greg Jennings is the team’s leading receiver, and though his one TD means he’s well down the scoring list at his position, he should be inserted into all fantasy lineups this week versus the Buccaneers.

It is with confidence that any football fan can look at the Bucs and say they are having a somewhat difficult time stopping their opponents from moving the ball via forward pass. They are giving up the most FPts/G in the NFL to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. They are last in pass defense, second to last in yards per pass attempt allowed, and tied for second to last in TD passes surrendered. But hey, Tampa is only allowing the 11th-most FPts/G to tight ends. So they have that going for them.

Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners who drafted Adrian Peterson with a high pick are surely in a tough spot with their teams, but it’s a spot they can dig out of if they nabbed Jerick McKinnon with a handcuff. The rookie from Georgia Southern had 103 yards last week against a tough Buffalo run defense, and has shown to be capable as a receiver as well. He hasn’t scored yet, but this week seems like an opportune time for him to find pay dirt.

Teams throw all over Tampa Bay, but that hasn’t stopped them from running it with effectiveness as well. The Bucs are 25th in the league in rush defense, T-26th in rushing scores yielded, and 15th in YPC allowed. They have also given up plenty of receiving yards to backs, and have allowed the 4th-most FPts/G in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jerick McKinnon: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarius Wright: 70 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Chase Ford: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon has fared better than many expected since he became the team’s starter, and has multiple scoring passes in each of his last three games while throwing for over 300 yards in each of them. He has a couple of big wide receivers to throw to in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, with Evans having scored in his previous two games. Jackson has been a disappointment this year, but fantasy owners shouldn’t quit on him just yet, and the fact that he’s 14th among wide receivers in targets bodes well if he can start coming down with a few more of those throws, starting this week against the Vikings.

Minnesota is 9th in the league against the pass, T-20th in passing scores given up, 15th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and T-14th in interceptions. They have held opposing quarterbacks to -2 rushing yards this season, the best mark in the league, and are T-4th-fewest FPts/G surrendered to players at that position. However, it should be noted that opponents like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers ceased throwing much after their teams got out to big leads, and they did allow 280+ yards and two scores to Kyle Orton a week ago. The Vikings are doing well against tight ends, allowing the 5th-fewest FPts/G to players at that position, and are 16th in FPts/G surrendered to wide receivers, despite Sammy Watkins going off for 122 yards and a pair of scores last week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bucs have a pair of running backs in Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey who are each wholly underwhelming. Rainey did have one excellent game, but that was in Week 2, though it is one more excellent game than Martin’s had all season. Minnesota is a good match-up for Martin, so using him as a flex play is an option, but any hope of his returning to his rookie form is fading every week.

The Vikings are 19th in the league in run defense, T-20th in rushing scores given up, and 21st in YPC allowed. Ranking 19th, 20th, and 21st in 32-team league isn’t good, and the fantasy numbers bear that out. Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards in the league to running backs this season, and is giving up the 7th-most FPts/G to players at the position.

Projections:
Mike Glennon: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Doug Martin: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Bobby Rainey: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Evans: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis Murphy: 35 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Vikings 27, Buccaneers 21 ^ Top

Texans at Titans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick has been about what people should have expected, having thrown eight TDs with seven picks while ranking 20th at his position in fantasy points. He has a pair of solid wide receivers to throw to in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, yet both of Fitzpatrick’s TD throws last week against Pittsburgh went to running backs. Go figure. In fact, Johnson has just a single TD reception all season, but has 21 more targets than Hopkins and is the team’s leading receiver. Both wide receivers should come into play for fantasy owners this week against the Titans.

Tennessee is 21st in the league in pass defense, T-20th in passing scores ceded, 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed, but are T-3rd with eight interceptions. They are T-13th fewest FPts/G given up to quarterbacks, but they’ve been poor of late, having gotten scorched by Andrew Luck and Brian Hoyer in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively, allowing Blake Bortles to throw for more than 330 yards with a TD in Week 6, and letting Colt McCoy complete 11 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a TD last week. As for the pass-catchers, Tennessee is average in terms of FPts/G given up to wide receivers, but have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards and 5th-most FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Due to Houston’s early bye, Arian Foster has played one fewer game than most other top running backs in the league, yet he’s still third in fantasy points. He had 102 rushing yards last week, marking the fifth time in six games Foster has amassed over 100 yards on the ground. There’s little else to say about the fantasy star, a true running back1 who should have another bountiful week against Tennessee.

The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in rush defense, T-20th in rushing scores permitted, and 13th in YPC allowed. Only six teams have given up more rushing yards to running backs than Tennessee, but no squad has surrendered fewer receiving yards to players at the position. That’s helped them limit fantasy points, and they’re allowing the 14th-fewest in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Arian Foster: 115 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds
Alfred Blue: 25 rush yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 85 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Garrett Graham: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It was thought earlier in the week that Jake Locker would be healthy enough to play against Houston, but not only will he not start, neither will Charlie Whitehurst. Instead, rookie Zach Mettenberger will get the call as the team tries to turn its season around. Tennessee wasn’t loaded with fantasy playmakers in the first place, but turning to a rookie QB in the middle of the season doesn’t bode well for the likes of Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker, who has cooled after a very hot start. The Titans’ wide receivers have a good match-up, yet Wright is the only one who deserves fantasy consideration, and probably only as a WR3.

The Texans are struggling to contain the pass, ranking 26th in the league in pass defense, and T-26th in TD passes given up. Over their last five games, every QB Houston has faced has tossed multiple scoring passes, and the Texans are surrendering the 13th-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and the 8th-most FPts/G to wide receivers, though they are T-9th-fewest FPts/G given up to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: It would be much easier to talk about Tennessee’s running game if they had much of one. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, neither Bishop Sankey nor Shonn Greene has done much to establish themselves this season. Greene missed last week’s game against Washington, allowing Sankey to get 16 carries, for which he picked up only 56 yards and didn’t score. Green should be back this week, but neither running back has a place in fantasy lineups against the Texans, despite their mediocre run defense.

Houston is 20th in the NFL against the run and 18th in YPC allowed, but are T-10th in rushing scores surrendered. They’ve also been prone to allowing some big games, having let two running backs amass at least 135 rushing yards, and have given up the 7th-most receiving yards in the league to running backs, all of which equals a team that has allowed the 12th-most FPts/G to running backs.

Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Bishop Sankey: 40 rush yds
Shonn Greene: 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Kendall Wright: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin Hunter: 35 rec yds
Nate Washington: 25 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 45 rec yds

Prediction: Texans 31, Titans 20 ^ Top

Seahawks at Panthers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week, Russell Wilson became the first QB in history to pass for 300 yards and run for 100 in the same game during his team’s loss to the Rams. He’s now eighth at his position in fantasy points, though much of that has to do with his running rather than passing, because up until last week Wilson had just one other game this season with more than 202 yards through the air. And now that Percy Harvin is gone, the team’s leading weapon at WR is Doug Baldwin, who compiled 123 yards and his first TD last week, but is 57th in fantasy points at his position. He should rise in those rankings, starting this week against a Panthers team that has been shredded as of late.

Aaron Rodgers sliced through the Carolina pass defense last week, completing all but three of his 22 pass attempts, and over their last four contests, the Panthers have allowed multiple scoring passes and at least 250 yards to every starting QB they’ve faced. Due in no small part to that, the team is allowing the 6th-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and are tied for second-most TD passes allowed in the league. On the positive front for their pass defense, Carolina has given up the 3rd-fewest FPts/G to tight ends, and is the only team in the NFL that has not allowed a TD catch to a player at that position. On the not-so-positive front, no team has surrendered more TD receptions to wide receivers than Carolina, and only three are allowing more FPts/G to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch remains in the top tier of fantasy running backs, ranking 6th in fantasy scoring at his position, but it’s not necessarily because of his running prowess. Lynch actually leads his team in receiving TDs with three, which is the same number of scores he’s amassed on the ground this season. He has just a single game with 100 rushing yards this year, and hasn’t scored on the ground in his last three games. However, the Panthers do offer an opportunity for Beast Mode to resurface as Carolina is struggling mightily this season to stop the run.

The Panthers were one of the best run defenses in the NFL last season, and that was supposed to continue on into 2014. That hasn’t happened. Carolina is 26th in the NFL in run defense, tied for second to last in rushing scores permitted, and are allowing the most YPC of any team in the league. They’ve also given up the 2nd-most rushing yards in the league to running backs, and just two teams are giving up more FPts/G to running backs than the Panthers.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 35 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 30 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 50 rec yds
Paul Richardson: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Luke Willson: 15 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton is having a solid season for his fantasy owners, with eight TDs and just three picks while averaging 225 passing yards per contest and rushing for nearly 200 yards. He has two reliable, fantasy-worthy targets to throw to in WR Kelvin Benjamin and TE Greg Olsen. Each has five TD catches this season, with Benjamin ranking 8th at his position in fantasy points, and Olsen 2nd. In 2013, even with those gaudy numbers, it would be risky to play either pass-catcher against the Seahawks, but this season things have been different. Seattle has been looser in terms of pass defense, and though Benjamin remains a bit of a risk, he should still be in lineups. As for Olsen, he is one of the better plays of the week at any position, going up against a unit that seems to forget tight ends exist once they get near the end zone.

The vaunted Seattle pass defense is a little less so this season. The team is 14th in the league against the pass and T-20th in passing TDs given up. Though they’re allowing the 13th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks, every QB since Week 1 has thrown multiple scores against them and they have just two interceptions. The Seahawks still do well against wide receivers, holding them to the 7th-fewest FPts/G, but the eight TDs they’ve surrendered to tight ends is the most in the NFL, and just two teams are allowing more FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: The Panthers have struggled with injury at running back this season, with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams each missing time. This has led to Cam Newton – who also missed a game this season – to be the team’s leading rusher with only 190 yards on the ground. Considering Carolina’s opponent this week, do the safe thing and leave all Panthers running backs where they belong – on fantasy benches.

Despite their relative struggles against the pass, the Seahawks remain dangerous to opposing running attacks. They are 6th in the league against the run, T-5th in rushing scores surrendered, and only Arizona is allowing fewer YPC than Seattle. The ‘Hawks have been burned at times by receptions by running backs, but only three teams have given up fewer rushing yards to running backs, and they’re T-11th-fewest FPts/G allowed to players at that position.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 45 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Panthers 24 ^ Top

Dolphins at Jaguars - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill is having a decent if unspectacular season, ranking 19th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Though he doesn’t have a deep cache of pass-catchers to throw to, Tannehill does have one very good option in WR Mike Wallace. After a disappointing first season in Miami, Wallace has somewhat quietly caught five TDs and is 14th at his position in fantasy points. His ramped up production has possibly come at the expense of TE Charles Clay, who is barely a TE2 anymore. He could be in line for a solid day this week, however, because Miami faces a Jacksonville defense that has gotten lit up on numerous occasions this season.

The Jaguars are a well below average unit when it comes to defending the pass, despite the fact they haven’t allowed a TD pass the last two weeks. It should also be noted that they faced the less than formidable duo of Charlie Whitehurst and Brian Hoyer in those two contests. For the season, Jacksonville is 30th in pass defense and T-20th in passing TDs allowed. They are T-11th-most FPts/G surrendered to quarterbacks, T-12th-most FPts/G allowed to wide receivers, and have given up the 6th-most FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Mike Wallace isn’t the only Dolphins player putting up fantasy-worthy numbers a season later than most thought. Lamar Miller has proven to be the capable runner/receiver that many predicted he could be, with over 100 receiving yards, nearly 400 rushing yards and four total TDs in six games. He is 8th in fantasy points at running back, and should be in lineups as a running back2 this week versus the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is 15th in the league in run defense, T-15th in rushing scores permitted, and is 9th in YPC allowed. Yet they’ve also allowed the 10th-most receiving yards in the NFL and a pair of receiving scores to running backs, so they are still giving up the 13th-most FPts/G to players at that position.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Lamar Miller: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Jarvis Landry: 55 rec yds
Brian Hartline: 30 rec yds
Charles Clay: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Jacksonville has shown very little in the passing game this season, and rookie Blake Bortles continues to struggle with turnovers, throwing three interceptions last week in Jacksonville’s win against Cleveland. Cecil Shorts is really the only player involved in the Jaguars’ passing game worthy of fantasy consideration, but he had just 12 receiving yards last week on three catches despite being targeted 12 times. But Shorts should be out of all fantasy lineups this week against Miami’s stellar pass defense.

The Dolphins have been formidable against opposing passing games this year, ranking 4th in the league in pass defense and T-12th in passing TDs allowed while holding opponents to the lowest yards per pass attempt in the NFL. Just a pair of quarterbacks has amassed at least 205 yards against Miami, and they’ve given up the 11th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks. And though the Fins have been average against tight ends, just five squads have allowed fewer FPts/G to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: After weeks of being mostly mediocre, former Michigan QB Denard Robinson may have found a home in Jacksonville at running back. He had 127 yards and a TD on 22 carries against the Browns last week and should continue to be the team’s running back at least for now. Fantasy owners get excited at the prospect of new running backs, but caution should be used here. Robinson has a tough match-up against the Dolphins and is little more than a low-end flex play.

Like their pass defense, the Miami run defense has been very solid this season. The team ranks 10th in the league in rush defense, they’re T-10th in rushing scores given up, and are 8th in YPC allowed. They have been very good in terms of limiting opposing backs on the ground, but are 15th in FPts/G surrendered to running backs in part due to the fact players at that position have been successful receivers against the Dolphins, having caught three TD passes.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Denard Robinson: 65 rush yds
Storm Johnson: 25 rush yds
Cecil Shorts: 45 rec yds
Allen Robinson: 40 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 35 rec yds
Allen Hurns: 20 rec yds
Clay Harbor: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jaguars 16 ^ Top

Packers at Saints - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week against Carolina, Aaron Rodgers had as many incompletions (three) as he did TD passes, which is a somewhat remarkable stat. He’s currently 5th in fantasy scoring at QB and has just a single interception all season with 18 TD throws. Most of his throws go to wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and the pair is first and fourth, respectively, in fantasy scoring at their position. Each is a bona fide WR1, and each should be in lineups as such this week against a New Orleans defense that pretty much just hands out fantasy points to wide receivers.

After getting throttled by Matt Ryan in Week 1, the Saints held opposing quarterbacks in check their next two games, albeit that was against Brian Hoyer, Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater. For the season, the Saints are 28th in the league in pass defense and T-11th-most FPts/G given up to quarterbacks. They have allowed the fewest receiving yards and FPts/G to tight ends, but the tune changes when it comes to wide receivers. New Orleans has allowed a WR to gain 140+ yards in each of their last two games, and only the Buccaneers have given up more FPts/G to wide receivers this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy is averaging a so-so 4.0 YPC this season, but he does have four rushing TDs and can occasionally catch the ball, making him an upper-echelon running back2. Some may say he’s in the running back1 discussion because he’s 12th in fantasy scoring at his position, but it’s hard to put a guy in that category that is on a pass-first team and has played seven games but amassed at least 50 rushing yards just twice. Lacy will try to make it three times this week against the Saints.

New Orleans is 11th in the league in both run defense and YPC allowed. However, they’re T-20th in rushing scores permitted, and have allowed the 9th-most FPts/G in the league to running backs despite not facing elite runners outside of DeMarco Murray.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 275 pass yds, 3 TD, 20 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
James Starks: 25 rush yds
Jordy Nelson: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Randall Cobb: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 45 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s not that Drew Brees is having a disappointing season – he has multiple TD passes in five of his six games this year and has thrown for over 330 yards four times – but it hasn’t really been a typical Brees season. The reason for that is simple – TDs. He hasn’t thrown for more than a pair of scores in a game this season and his 11 for the year is T-11th in the league. It should help matters if TE Jimmy Graham’s shoulder returns to health, because he did not catch a single pass last week against Detroit and was barely targeted. WR Marques Colston performed well in Graham’s stead, with over 100 receiving yards, but he still has just a single score all season, and in fact no Saints WR has more than one TD. They have a tough match-up against the Packers this week, but are certainly capable of putting up numbers.

Green Bay has done very well against the pass this year, ranking 6th in the league in pass defense. They’re T-6th in passing scores yielded, T-4th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and are 2nd in interceptions. Despite those numbers, the Packers are in the middle of the league in terms of FPts/G allowed to quarterbacks because they’ve surrendered a pair of rushing scores and allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Things are a bit better at the other positions, as the Pack has given up the 13th-fewest FPts/G to wide receivers, and the 8th-fewest FPts/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram returned to action last week and resumed being the player fantasy owners had gotten to know over his career. He ran for just 18 yards on 10 carries, though in fairness that was against a very good Detroit defense. This week he’ll square off against a much-worse run defense as Green Bay comes to town, so if Ingram is going to revert to the player he was at the beginning of the season, it should happen this week.

The Packers have the second-worst run defense in the NFL, are T-26th in rushing scores yielded, and are 25th in YPC allowed. Yet a decent amount of that damage has been done by quarterbacks, so Green Bay is just 14th in terms of FPts/G allowed to running backs, though they have allowed the 9th-most rushing yards in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 335 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Mark Ingram: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
Khiry Robinson: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Travaris Cadet: 15 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Marques Colston: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 65 rec yds
Brandin Cooks: 50 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Packers 34, Saints 31 ^ Top

Bears at Patriots - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: The only team in the NFL with multiple wins who is also winless at home is Chicago, whose three victories have all come away from Soldier Field. After losing there again in Week 7 the team will not play at home again until Week 11, with two road games separated by a bye week. Fans aren’t the only ones frustrated by the Bears winless ways, as WR Brandon Marshall let his feelings be known to the media following their most recent loss. Historically, a prominent offensive player voicing their displeasures results in one of two things; either the team turns away from him and seeks to utilize other weapons, or the offense seemingly runs through the player in the following game as if to prove to the world that all is well. In the case of Marshall, the latter may be more likely, as he is currently the fourth leading receiver in Chicago and third in targets, despite having a team-high five touchdowns. On the road, QB Jay Cutler has ten touchdowns (one rushing) and just two interceptions, while averaging 268 passing yards per game and completing over 68% of his attempts. With Marshall as the fourth most productive receiver on the team, the rest of the offense is certainly doing quite well. Averaging over 70 yards per game and 15 per catch, WR Alshon Jeffery is the team’s big play receiver. Big TE Martellus Bennett has recorded four scores and averages over 60 yards per game, making him a valuable target all over the field. Beyond these three and RB Matt Forte, only four other Bears players have been targeted in the passing game, and none have more than 65 yards or eight receptions through six games.

Although they hope to be leaving the struggles from home behind them, Chicago may not find their Week 8 contest much easier as they will be up against the top rated pass defense in the league. The Patriots are allowing only 208 passing yards per game, and only three teams have both more interceptions and sacks than they do. Their defensive approach has been two-pronged, with capable pass rushers and an opportunistic secondary, but with recent injuries the former part of that combination may be at risk. Already without LB Jerod Mayo (knee) for the season, now DE Chandler Jones (hip) is expected to be out for one month. This leaves the Patriots thin at those positions, and though the remaining players are capable of filling in adequately, the greatest risk comes when substitutions are made or players become winded as the game wears on them. The challenge for the Bears, who have given up the ninth most sacks this season, will be neutralizing the talented pass rushers which remain available for New England. Even if they are able to do so, the Patriots secondary is one of the most talented and deep groups in the league, presenting an incredible challenge for most signal callers, not to mention the inconsistencies of QB Jay Cutler and the Bears receiving corps.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Bears struggle moving the ball through the air then even more pressure will be placed on RB Matt Forte and the rushing attack. The versatility of the star ball carrier allows him to be active in all parts of the offense, recording nearly as many yards out of the backfield (62) as he does on the ground (64), and giving him the second most yards from scrimmage for the entire league. Although the team tends to be better when on the road, Forte has put in his two best performances of the season at home. For the season Chicago has barely escaped the bottom quarter of the league with only 95 rushing yards per game, with the vast majority of them coming from planned Forte runs or improvised Cutler scrambles. The only other player with more than five rushing attempts is RB Ka’Deem Carey, but other than as a handcuff for a highly utilized ball carrier, he has minimal fantasy value.

The matchup of the Week 8 contest will likely come from the ground game, where the Patriots are equally as ineffective in stopping the run as Chicago is in their rushing attack; both rank as the ninth worst in their respective categories of rushing yards. The offense has recorded four rushing touchdowns and the defense has allowed the same number. For the season the Patriots have surrendered and average of 126 yards per game, but during their three game winning streak New England has allowed fewer than 80 yards on two occasions. In the most recent contest however their opponent gained 218 rushing yards and average over five yards per carry. Only once this year has Forte averaged more than five yards per carry, and in games where he didn’t gain 4.5 yards or more per attempt he also failed to reach the 65-yard mark. Since the Patriots have largely been subpar against the run, and the primary Chicago ball carrier has been incredibly inconsistent, the unit which performs best has the potential to control the game and greatly influence it’s outcome.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 225 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Matt Forte: 70 rush yds, 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 55 rec yds
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: After the debacle that was Week 4, QB Tom Brady has been as good as he’s been expected to be and the Patriots have resumed their winning ways. Through the first four weeks Brady never reached 250 passing and only recorded one touchdown in each of the contests. He also threw his only interceptions of the season during that time. From Week 5 and onward, Brady has surpassed 260 yards in each game and has thrown at least two scores in each. Part of the offensive reinvigoration is due to the growing involvement of TE Rob Gronkowski, who has recorded 68 or more yards in each of the last three games after not gaining 45 in any of the first four. The team’s yardage leader however is still WR Julian Edelman, though his totals have been on a downward trajectory since the third week, with one exception two contests ago. The issue that causes the Patriots to continue to struggle is the lack of star power outside of the numbers, but WR Brandon LaFell is slowly becoming a more consistent target out wide and forcing opposing defenses into a more traditional coverage rather than keying on the tight ends and slot receivers.

Considering the recent pace that Brady has set, the approximately-average Bears pass defense may be in trouble. On the season Chicago has conceded 248 passing yards per game and has allowed 12 touchdowns through the air, though they’ve somewhat compensated for that by forcing eight interceptions and 19 sacks; no team has recorded more of both. Unfortunately for the Bears, in their four most recent games they’ve conceded nine touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, so they’ve gotten cold at about the same time that the New England offense has gotten hot. Not surprisingly Chicago has lost three of their last four games with performances like that. During that same time frame the defense has earned 11 of their 19 sacks, roughly the same rate as the first three contests, so they’re still getting good pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the secondary isn’t doing enough to capitalize on what the pass rushers are achieving. Facing the Patriots passing attack all parts of the Chicago defense will have to work together to avoid losing their fourth game in five tries.

Running Game Thoughts: For at least one week, keeping in mind that it was against one of the best rushing defenses in the league, the loss of Stevan Ridley (knee, season) was not woefully apparent. In his place RB Shane Vereen received the majority of the carries but was mostly effective out of the backfield, highlighted by an impressive 49-yard diving catch, which resulted in the game’s first touchdown. Of the backups, undrafted rookie RB Jonas Gray was on the field for 12 snaps compared to only one from Brandon Bolden, and comments from Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels suggest that Gray may be in line for a further expanded role in the coming weeks. Against a stout defensive front the identity of the top backup was immaterial, but now that Gray has been identified as the likely candidate he has moderate potential as he is larger than Vereen and built like a more traditional ball carrier. For the time being expectations should be kept to a minimum, but in short yardage situations or around the goal line he may steal touches, or perhaps even a score, from the more established running back.

This aspect of the Week 8 matchup will be the one which least favors New England, though not drastically enough that it should affect the game plan, and the Bears defense ranks 14th against the run and has allowed five touchdowns so far this season. The running backs available for the Patriots are either better as pass catchers or are unproven on the field, so little can be gleaned from previous games. On the surface the two rushing attacks resemble each other, where the larger and more physical ball carrier is the backup, limited to just a few carries a game, and the starter is slighter but his versatility creates opportunities in the passing game. From a strict rushing perspective, unless Gray is utilized heavily and the Patriots passing game is neglected, Chicago should have little concern about the rushing attack until the offense approaches the redzone. The greatest potential for failure by the Bears defense is if Brady utilizes a no huddle offense to exploit a personnel mismatch, and in that event the ultimate dagger is likely to come through the air anyway.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 275 pass yds, 3 TDs
Shane Vereen: 50 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jonas Gray: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 45 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bears 27 ^ Top

Bills at Jets - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Thanks to some last second heroics, QB Kyle Orton now has two game-winning drives in just three starts this season. He has thrown for at least 280 yards in each of those three games, and despite throwing a pick in each contest he has scored one or more touchdowns in each as well, bringing his season TD-INT ratio to 5-3. Though his yardage has slowly decreased since his start in Week 5, his completion percentage in the most recent game was the highest it’s been this year at over 72%. The veteran signal caller has provided a steadying presence to the young team who previously struggled without a clear on-field leader. Orton has been particularly influential in the development of rookie WR Sammy Watkins, who surpassed 31 yards just once in his first four games, but has broken 85 yards twice with Orton under center. He still shows the inconsistencies expected from a rookie, but he is much closer to realizing his potential now than he was previously. Buffalo is a run-first team but Orton presents enough of a passing threat to keep the defense honest, because he’s demonstrated the ability to exploit them when they’re not. Even in obvious passing situations the veteran has been able to find some success where without him the Bills were all but hopeless through the air. After a pair of untimely injuries to running backs in Week 7, Orton and the young receivers may be called upon to carry the team as the rushing attack gets sorted out and previously untested players are called into duty.

The strength of the Jets defense is undoubtedly their ability to stop the run, so looking ahead to Week 8 it was likely that Buffalo knew there’d be an increased emphasis on the passing game anyway, so in that respect the loss of their top two running backs may be somewhat mitigated. Despite facing the who’s who of NFL quarterbacks during their six game losing streak, they rank as the 16th best defense against the pass with respect to yards allowed, giving up only 239 yards per game. On the scoreboard though they can’t claim any matter of success, as they’ve surrendered the most touchdowns in the league while also forcing the fewest number of interceptions. They’ve recorded nearly three sacks per game through seven contests, but their success in rushing the passer is overlooked by the near-ineptitude of the secondary. Losing a starting cornerback from an already-limited back four certainly has not helped their cause, but even with CB Dee Milliner on the field the New York secondary may have been the worst in the league. In a game where the offense is likely going to be forced into passing situations, the silver lining to the dark cloud which is the Jets back four is that the receivers for Buffalo will be the least experienced they’ll defend all season, and the quarterback will be the least-stellar they’ve faced since the opening weekend. The key for New York may rest with the front seven bringing pressure against an offensive line, which has struggled with protection (19 sacks), hopefully forcing the quarterback to rush his throws and make poor decisions.

Running Game Thoughts: In the span of about ten minutes the Bills saw their co-starting running backs go down. Both are expected to return before the end of the season, with RB Fred Jackson (groin) likely out for four weeks and RB C.J. Spiller (collarbone) placed on Injured Reserve with the designation to return, meaning he’ll be able to rejoin the active roster in Week 16. For the immediate future, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown will be called upon to resume their roles. As the larger back Dixon is expected to play the part of Jackson, while the more versatile Brown is seen as the direct replacement to Spiller. Though Brown has yet to touch the ball this season the prevailing opinion is that he’ll be given the most opportunities because of his abilities in the passing game and as a shifty runner, while Dixon may see an increased role in short yardage situations or as a bruising change-of-pace back. Prior to the injuries Buffalo averaged only 103 rushing yards per game, but with defenses less intimidated by this duo than the pair that they are replacing, it is possible that the Bills actually an increase in rushing production despite being without their starters for at least the next month.

Barring a mind-boggling defensive oversight, that potential bump in the ground game is not expected to materialize in Week 8 against the eighth best rushing defense of New York. On the season they’re yielding just 88 rushing yards per game and an even better mark of 3.6 yards per carry. That being said, in two of the last three games the Jets have allowed 162 and 138 rushing yards, with a respective per carry average of 4.1 and 4.2 in those contests. In their most recent game, a blocked field goal away from a divisional road victory, they surrendered just 63 yards on 15 carries, but still gave up 4.2 yards per attempt. In all three of those games their opponent was dealing with injuries in their backfields, and none were playing with their starting ball carrier. With so many unknowns related to the Bills running game and the personnel they will choose to use it is hard to decipher the most likely scenario for Sunday afternoon, but raging mediocrity feels like a safe bet. An unproven rushing duo, coupled with an inconsistent offensive line and an adequate quarterback, square off against a porous secondary and one of the most fearsome front sevens in the league. If punters happen to earn fantasy points in whatever strange scoring system your league uses, start P Colton Schmidt from Buffalo.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 265 pass yds, 1 TD
Bryce Brown: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds, TD
Anthony Dixon: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 70 rec yds
Robert Woods: 40 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 55 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: When a quarterback throws for 226 yards, completes less than 59% of his passes, and records only one touchdown, it’s more likely that the box score represents his worst game of the season rather than his best. In the case of QB Geno Smith however, the fact that he didn’t throw an interception makes it the first such game this year, and rather convincingly makes Week 7 the pinnacle of his 2014 performances this far. As far as fantasy football is concerned, if Smith could repeat that performance in each remaining game this season, sustaining his current maximum usefulness, he would still be comfortably dropped in every respectable league. Though the quarterback can be ignored, over 57% of his passes have been completed this season and therefore someone in a Jets uniform stands to be on the receiving end of those attempts. To date the primary beneficiary has been WR Eric Decker, who despite an earlier struggle with a hamstring injury is the leading receiver on the team, averaging 54 yards per game. In a surprise trade, WR Percy Harvin was acquired, and the threat presented by his playmaking abilities should greatly relieve the pressure which Decker has grown accustomed to seeing as the number one New York receiver. Used out wide, in the slot, out of the backfield, sometimes as a decoy, and most notoriously on jet sweeps, Harvin attracts attention where ever he lines up on the field because of the multitude of ways which his speed can impact a game. Cast aside by the reigning Super Bowl champions, Harvin joins a struggling Jets team with a chip on his shoulder and an unrelenting desire to prove his nay-sayers wrong.

As long as Smith continues to be under center for New York there will be at least one fantasy defense worth targeting on the waiver wire every week, provided they’re available on Tuesday mornings, and this week that means the Bills are at the top of that streaming-defense list. The addition of Harvin makes the Jets more dynamic on the ground, an area where they’re already gifted, but the passing game will continue to be limited by the second year quarterback who can’t seem to get out of his own way. Last week Buffalo faced off against the worst passing offense in the league, and this week the Jets will present an ever-so-slightly tougher task as the second worst. The seven touchdowns thrown by Smith are the second worst in the league; combined with seven interceptions he has the third worst TD-INT ratio, better than only a pair of rookies. As a team Buffalo is tied with the third most interceptions forced, and is approximately average for touchdowns allowed and yards conceded per game. The strength of the Bills defense is their front seven, as they have recorded a league-high 24 sacks. Between the pressure which Buffalo can generate and their ability to capitalize on quarterback mistakes, the Jets will be tempted to shelter Smith even more than normal and rely on the rushing attack to try to keep the game within reach.

Running Game Thoughts: A quarterback’s best friend is a strong ground game, and thankfully for New York their woeful signal caller has a quality friend indeed. The Jets have a top five rushing attack, averaging 135 yards per game on the ground, and have scored five touchdowns in seven games. During that time their two back tandem has seen RB Chris Ivory establish himself as the undisputed starter, and RB Chris Johnson has seen his role decrease to approximately half of that of the primary ball carrier. More viable as both a runner and as a receiver, Ivory averages 62 yards per game on the ground and another 15 coming out of the backfield. He has scored thrice as a rusher compared to only once for Johnson, though the latter does have a receiving score from early in the season whereas Ivory has none. In their Week 7 contest Johnson received 13 carries and turned them into 61 yards, and Ivory took his 21 attempts for 107 yards and a score. As the more physical back Ivory sees the majority of short yardage and redzone carries, so his fantasy value is additionally increased over that of Johnson. While the former 2000-yard back likely can’t be dropped because of his value as a handcuff, without an injury to Ivory he has minimal fantasy usefulness unless he’s able to turn one of his few touches into a race for the endzone like he did back in Week 4.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills yield a meager 80 yards per game. They’re the third most stout on a per carry basis and only fractions of a yard away from leading the league, allowing only 3.2 per attempt. Buffalo is one of only two teams to not allow a rushing touchdown this season, and the other team to achieve that feat has played one fewer game, so chances are neither Johnson nor Ivory are likely to break the plane with the ball in their hands. In seven contests the Bills have allowed only one 100-yard rusher, and in the other six games the entire team didn’t even break triple digits on the ground. The same front seven which has been terrorizing quarterbacks is also quite adept at disrupting the offensive line and shutting down running lanes. For the Bills, only LB Preston Brown has more than 50 tackles, tied for 19th most among individual players, but six others have 30 or more. This helps demonstrate how balanced the defense is and further highlights how difficult it is to single out just one player to game plan against, making them even more difficult to prepare for during the week.

Projections:
Geno Smith: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 25 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 15 rush yds
Eric Decker: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Percy Harvin: 40 rec yds, 35 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Bills 19, Jets 13 ^ Top

Redskins at Cowboys - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Following the halftime benching of QB Kirk Cousins, Washington became the second NFL team to record a win while being led by their third string quarterback. The man of the afternoon was Colt McCoy, who in Week 8 will earn his first start as a Redskin after two forgettable years in Cleveland and two more years as a backup on his current team. There are rumblings that the injured QB Robert Griffin III (ankle) may be available to return in a limited capacity, but his history of prematurely returning to the field should be enough encouragement to hold him out until after their Week 10 bye. Aside from 30 minutes of play against one of the lesser defenses in the league, McCoy has next to no useful history with Washington, seeing the field in the preseason and carrying a clipboard behind Griffin and Cousins. The fifth year veteran now has an opportunity to revitalize his career as both of the previous starters are now in the latter stages of their rookie contacts, so a solid pair of outings before the bye week could cause a significant uptick in his value to the franchise. Considering the offensive weapons that are available, and now all finally healthy at the same time, McCoy has the ability to have an immediate impact on the team. Mercurial WR DeSean Jackson has topped 110 yards scored in all three of the games in which he has gained 40 or more yards on one reception, and in the other four he has failed to score or reach 65 yards. By comparison WR Pierre Garcon has been more consistent, but has fallen victim to the inconsistencies at quarterback; he averages 56 yards per games and also has three touchdowns. The two Redskins tight ends have combined for approximately 100 yards in each game they’ve played together, but the division of those gains has heavily favored TE Jordan Reed in one contest, heavily favored TE Niles Paul in another, and in the third was approximately equal. Both present similar matchup issues for opposing defenses, and as less experienced signal callers tend to favor their position, it stands to reason that one or both of them could be in line for a big game.

Standing in the way between McCoy and an encore performance will be a Dallas defense which surrenders only 230 passing yards per game and has forced seven interceptions in as many contests. The Cowboys have held their opponents to below-average totals without getting consistent pressure on the quarterback, recording only seven sacks so far this season. By limiting passers to only 7.1 yards per attempt the secondary has largely forced offenses to throw shorter passes and try to allow their receivers to make plays after the reception. Considering their six game winning streak, it’s safe to say the strategy is working. As they seek seven in a row, Dallas will be faced with a knowledgeable quarterback who has no recent game experience, so while McCoy may exhibit some of the same struggles which younger players usually have, he also has a longer history of film study and a better comfort with NFL defenses. This combination will undoubtedly lead to mistakes, but should also present opportunities for the offense to exploit a defense, which is unable to deliver pressure. Dallas has enough talent in the secondary to matchup with the impressive Redskins pass catchers, but if McCoy is given a clean pocket then it’s only a matter of time until one of them breaks free and finds the endzone.

Running Game Thoughts: For only the third time all season and the first time since Week 3, RB Alfred Morris received more than 15 touches in a game, and that was despite suffering a minor ankle injury which forced him to miss some time. So far this year Washington is 2-1 in contests where Morris earns more than 15 touches and they’re 0-4 in games he doesn’t. Used almost exclusively as a runner, he has just five catches on the season, making him one of the few ball carriers who doesn’t contribute out of the backfield with at least some regularity. Morris hasn’t scored since Week 4 and hasn’t gained 55 or more yards since that time either, though his totals have increased moderately over the past two weeks. Averaging less than four yards per carry for the season, and less than 3.3 yards per attempt in the past three contests, it will take a volume of touches to get Morris close to the point where he is once again a viable fantasy running back. The three weeks in which Morris has received the most carries were when Cousins replaced Griffin mid-game, in Cousins first start of the season, and when McCoy replaced Cousins mid-game. Apparently Washington recognizes the likely struggles of switching quarterbacks, and as such chooses to focus on the run more heavily in those games. If that trend continues Morris should once again expect to see close to 20 touches and look to break 60 yards rushing for the first time in over a month, salvaging his fantasy usefulness.

Using the major statistical categories the Cowboys run defense appears approximately average for the NFL, ranking 16th in yards allowed and tied for tenth in touchdowns surrendered. Upon further review however they’ve faced the tenth fewest rushing attempts in the league, and that has helped to cover up their third-worst ranking on a per touch basis, yielding 4.9 yards per attempt. The saving grace for the Dallas defense appears to be their own offense, which controls the clock and forces opponents into situations which favor the pass more than the run. In their two closest victories this season, Dallas surrendered over 120 yards in each contest, including one where a running back scored twice and gained over 155 yards on the ground. Though it hasn’t happened since week one, the way to beat the Cowboys appears to be through a strong rushing attack and limiting the number of passes that the quarterback attempts. This leads to fewer mistakes from the offense, forces the Cowboys to defend the run as well as the pass, and ultimately wears down the Dallas defense and in turn leads to bigger gains. That being said, this sort of Redskins game plan may be a bit too obvious considering the recent change at quarterback, but with the receiving weapons they have available Dallas will have to at least initially respect the pass and that could allow Washington to establish the run early.

Projections:
Colt McCoy: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 70 rush yds
DeSean Jackson: 60 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Reed: 65 rec yds
Niles Paul: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The most prolific fantasy pass catcher for Dallas over the past two weeks has been TE Gavin Escobar, with three touchdowns and 67 receiving yards. Prior to that he’s collected three total passes for a meager 18 yards, including recording goose eggs in two separate games. The smart play is to feel happy for the guy but to politely ignore him as a potential deep fantasy sleeper. Aside from the receiving equivalent of a touchdown vulture, the remainder of the Cowboys passing attack has been business as usual. Star WR Dez Bryant continues to put up great yardage, but he’s not found the endzone in back to back weeks after catching a touchdown pass in the previous four contests. His counterpart WR Terrance Williams tends to be a less consistent producer but has developed a knack for the endzone, pulling in six scores so far this season. The tried and true TE Jason Witten has caught multiple passes in every game this season, but with so many other mouths to feed through the air his totals continue to be more modest, averaging less than 40 yards per game. Leading the offense is QB Tony Romo, who has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions during each game of the winning streak, giving him 13 scores and only three picks during that time. Together the Dallas passing attack ranks in the top half of the league with 242 yards per game, but by averaging 8.4 yards per attempt Romo leads one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Combined with good ball security and stellar pass catchers, the Cowboys have had one of the most indefensible passing games for the last six weeks.

If there was a passing defense which was the perfect reflection of the Cowboys passing attack, Washington may be just that unit. Just as the offense is efficient with its yardage and has an impressive ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, the Redskins defense is stingy when it comes to allowing gains but has been unable to keep opponents out of the endzone or to force interceptions. Even their sack totals are misleading, with ten coming in one blowout victory and only six more coming from the other six contests. Now that the defense is going to be without LB Brian Orakpo (pectoral) for the remainder of the season, even more pressure will be placed on LB Ryan Kerrigan and a front seven which has underwhelmed opponents for the majority of the season. As would be expected of most losing teams, the Redskins have faced fewer rushes than almost every other team who has yet to go on bye, principally because opponents choose to run the ball when the game is out of hand. Washington has found ways to lose without giving up many passing yards, and the Cowboys continue to win without Romo needing to air it out all day long; both are likely to happen again on Monday night.

Running Game Thoughts: To date the scope of NFL history has been unable to capture how truly great the first seven games of 2014 have been for RB DeMarco Murray as he’s run behind the best offensive line in the league. Even with injuries, substitutions, and replacements all playing their role along the line of scrimmage, the unit continues to function at an extremely high level and Murray has been the primary beneficiary of their dominance. As an individual he has out-gained all but four teams on the ground, and his seven rushing scores has been surpassed by only one entire backfield. The primary concern continues to be the volume of carries he’s being given, with 61 more than the next most attempts, and if his workload is sustainable for an entire season and into the playoffs. With six wins from seven games the Cowboys are undoubtedly eyeing a long run into the postseason, so their focus may soon switch more toward preservation and protecting their greatest assets. While Romo and Bryant have the bigger contracts, so far it has been Murray who has been the most important skill player for their offensive success. Until game plan or injury intervenes, the Dallas workhorse is as close to a lock for 100 yards as there has ever been, and with seven scores in as many contests, it’s hard to imagine he’s going to be held out of the endzone anytime soon.

Compared to previous competition, Week 8 will present a familiar challenge for the Dallas rushing attack. The Redskins will be the fourth best run defense that they’ve faced this season, with the three better teams representing two wins and the only Cowboys loss so far. Where Washington seems ahead of their cohorts is in yielding touchdowns, where they’ve giving up only three through seven games and also hold opponents to 103 rushing yards per contest. Additionally, their mark of 3.8 yards allowed per carry ranks as the tenth best in the league, and no ball carrier has broken a run of 30 yards or more against them. In their two wins the defense surrendered 25 and 76 rushing yards, and in their three worst defeats they’ve given up at least 115 yards on the ground; in the remaining two close losses the defense has held their opponent to fewer than 90 rushing yards. Quite simply the key to beating the Redskins is establishing the run early and returning to it often, allowing the offensive line to wear down the defense and giving the ball carrier running lanes to exploit. During their six-game winning streak Dallas has done just that, and they’ll undoubtedly look to do it again on their way to seven wins.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 225 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 115 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 30 rec yds
Gavin Escobar: 5 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Redskins 17 ^ Top

Ravens @ Bengals - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Following his Week 6 career game, Joe Flacco went back to being Joe Flacco in Week 7. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; its more the Flacco is the definition of “average”. Flacco threw for 258 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against a toothless Atlanta Falcons pass defense. Flacco has the strong arm and some mobility, but isn’t terribly accurate and will make mistakes that a “franchise” quarterback shouldn’t be making. Torrey Smith has finally emerged from his early season slumber and scored his third touchdown in the last two games. Smith has a reputation as a deep threat, but has refined his route tree and can be effective on short-range patterns as well. On the other end of the spectrum the elder Smith, Steve, has been regressing from his early season torrid pace. That’s not to say that he hasn’t been productive, as he did manage 3 catches for 67 yards, but he isn’t lighting up the scoreboard like he did earlier this season. Keep in mind however that he did torch the Cincinnati defense for 118 yards and a score during the Week 1 matchup between these two teams.

The Bengals were looking like one the league’s most fearsome defenses during their 3-0 start to the season, but have been torched by Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in their two losses sandwiching a tie in between. On the season they are now allowing 270.3 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns through the air. During the first matchup, Flacco did manage to put up 345 yards on this unit, but that came mostly due to as the Ravens were trailing. Flacco completed only 35-of-62 attempts.

Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett has effectively replaced Ray Rice’s production in the running game after grabbing the job and keeping it when Bernard Pierce missed time with a groin injury. The veteran running back, who turned 29 last week, is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has shown that he can handle a feature back workload with 37 carries over the last two games. Pierce did take over at the goaline last week, and his 230-pound frame makes him better suited for short-yardage work than the sub- 200-pound Forsett. The Ravens are still one of the few teams that like to keep a balanced offense, and with their offensive line holding up well should look to come out trying to establish the run on Sunday against a reeling Bengals defense.

The Bengals are ahead of only Green Bay and Cleveland when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 146.3 rushing yards per game while yielding six rushing touchdowns.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Bernard Pierce: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 55 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton struggled badly last week in Indianapolis, and the passing attack is starting to look like it really misses star wide receiver A.J. Green. As of now Green’s status is “still up in the air” for this matchup and he has not been practicing. Dalton threw for only 126 yards with no touchdowns last week with Green out of the lineup. Dalton’s success has long been dependant on Green’s athletic ability and to adjust while the ball is in the air. In his defense, Dalton’s also missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert leaving him with marginal talents like Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Tate, Dane Sanzenbacher and Jermaine Gresham running pass patterns. Dalton has also cut down on his turnovers, which was a serious problem last season. Running back Giovani Bernard adds playmaking ability out of the backfield and will need to be used more should Green’s toe injury keep him out of yet another game.

The Ravens pass defense has been a “bend but don’t break” unit this season. They are allowing 258.4 yards per game but are only giving up 1 passing touchdown per game on average.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals punted the ball 11 times last week, and couldn’t get anything going on offense so obviously the running game was limited. Giovani Bernard saw only seven carries while Jeremy Hill rushed only four times. Ideally, Bernard will be more involved in the passing game than he was last week. The Bengals would like to get him out in space and make plays, especially if the team is once again without their best offensive player in A.J. Green. Of course, Green being in the lineup would be far better for the running games as the team would be able to sustain drives while moving the ball. Hill has had an up and down rookie season thus far, but at least the “downs” have been as a result of games where he did not see heavy usage such as last week. On the season he’s averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson stated all offseason that the Bengals would be a run based offense and so far they have managed to keep their offense fairly balanced with 198 pass attempts and 163 rushes. Ideally they’d have those numbers creep even closer together if their defense finds its way back to the level it was on early in the season.

The Ravens’ run defense has been very strong, so the Bengals may find it tough to establish any kind of running game this Sunday. The unit is allowing a meager 87.4 rushing yards per game with only 3 rushing touchdowns surrendered in seven games.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 285 pass yds 2 TDs, 1 INT., 5 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 55 rush yds, 55 rec yds
Brandon Tate: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 80 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 20 ^ Top

Raiders at Browns - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: For the second week in a row, the Browns will be facing a rookie quarterback trying to lead his team to its first win in 2014. This week it will be Derek Carr and the Raiders coming into town. Carr is coming off a game where he and the Raiders couldn’t get anything going at home against Arizona, but he did manage 283 yards and 4 touchdowns with 1 interception the week before against the Chargers. As expected, the second-round rookie has been inconsistent but has shown good pocket awareness and good arm strength in his six starts. On the season he is completing 60% of his passes for 1,189 yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, which isn’t bad when you consider he isn’t blessed with a great supporting cast. Veteran James Jones is the de facto WR1 for the team, and is stretched in that role. Third-year wide receiver Andre Holmes has breathed some life into the passing game, since injuries mandated his insertion into the starting lineup. He has 12 catches for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last three games. The Raiders could use a serious upgrade at the tight end position if they want Carr to take the next step in his development.

The Browns already had one of the top cornerbacks in the league in Joe Haden, but traded back to No.8 and chose Justin Gilbert in the first round of this year’s draft. Gilbert has struggled so far, but has the talent to make life miserable for passing games facing the Browns as he learns on the job. So far his struggles haven’t hurt the unit that much, but the Browns have only been a league average pass defense when many expected much more. The team is allowing 241.7 passing yards per game with 9 touchdowns allowed and 7 interceptions on the season. It will be interesting to see if Haden shadows “No. 1” WR James Jones or the more productive Andre Holmes.

Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders signed veteran Maurice Jones-Drew this offseason and he has looked washed up thus far. MJD is averaging a meager 2.7 yards per carry and has taken a backseat to incumbent Darren McFadden. McFadden hasn’t been all that explosive himself, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry, but has been productive at times. It seems inevitable that the team will turn to second year back Latavius Murray at some point, but so far the team is not inclined to do so, as Murray has been limited to four carries on the season. The Raiders offensive line was rebuilt this offseason, and the running game should be working much better than it has… so something needs to change.

Cleveland looked to have a very strong front-seven after adding former Arizona Cardinal stand out run stopper Carlos Dansby to the mix this offseason, but thus far have been the worst run defense in the league. The Browns are giving up 155.5 yards per game and 7 scores on the ground. With a rookie quarterback and an improved line, the Raiders should be looking to exploit the Browns weakness inside the Dog Pound.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs., 10 rush yds
Darren McFadden: 75 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew: 35 rush yds
Andre Holmes: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
James Jones: 40 rec yds
Denarius Moore: 25 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer was on the cusp of folk hero status in Cleveland after leading the team to come from behind wins over New Orleans and Tennessee and then stomping the hated division rival Steelers, but he crashed hard last week. Hoyer completed only 39% of his passes and threw an interception while failing to throw a touchdown against what was a terrible Jacksonville defense. Browns’ fans were dreaming of a 6-2 start to the season after seeing Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay as their next three matchups while holding a 3-2 record. Hoyer will need to win the next two games in order to hold off the “Johnny Football” chants from the home crowd. Hoyer has somewhat limited arm strength, but is a fiery leader and the smarts to overcome his limitations. He will need his supporting cast to do a better job, particularly tight end Jordan Cameron, who has disappointed for most of this season while recovering from ankle and shoulder injuries. Last week had more to do with Hoyer than Cameron as the athletic tight end was open in the end-zone but Hoyer missed badly on the pass. Until Josh Gordon returns in Week 12 the receiving corps will remain solid, at best. There just aren’t any playmakers in the group that can help raise the game of a journeyman quarterback.

People may be surprised to see, the Raiders pass defense sitting just outside the top 10 rankings, but there they sit as the eleventh-ranked pass defense in the league. The team is allowing 229.5 yards per game with 11 touchdowns but only 3 interceptions.

Running Game Thoughts: Ben Tate has been solid since returning from a knee injury but last week, like the whole Cleveland offense, he struggled to get anything going. The team lost center Alex Mack, and the offensive line regressed as a result. Mack is an all-pro talent and the leader of the line and will be missed. Tate is a hard-nosed runner that doesn’t have much wiggle but has shown good vision and burst and doesn’t leave many yards on the field. He’s a perfect fit for the Browns zone-blocking scheme. Terrence West was a healthy inactive in Week 6 and was benched in Week 7 after failing to take what the defense gave him. That should once again open the door for fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell to get back in the driver’s seat for the carries behind Tate.

What isn’t surprising is how bad Oakland has been against the run. The team is allowing 145.3 yards per game with 6 rushing touchdowns being scored in their six games thus far.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 205 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Isaiah Crowell: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Miles Austin: 45 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 30 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Browns 24, Raiders 17 ^ Top

Colts at Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The juxtaposition of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andrew Luck, the quarterbacks the Steelers will face in consecutive weeks is like having a baloney sandwich for lunch and a fine steak dinner that night. Luck has emerged as one of the game’s best quarterbacks in just his third NFL season. Luck has piled up incredible statistics (2331 passing yards with 19 touchdowns) while also exhibiting the leadership skills and game knowledge that Colts‘ fans became accustomed to during the Peyton Manning era. Unlike Manning, however Andrew Luck also has tremendous athleticism and can beat opposing teams with his legs. Luck has 98 yards rushing and another 2 touchdowns on the ground, after scoring 9 rushing touchdowns over his first two seasons. The truly scary part about Luck’s development is that he’s doing it with a good but not great supporting cast. The Colts most dangerous receiver is third-year pro TY Hilton. Hilton is only 5’9” and 178 pounds but has lightning speed and is an effective playmaker all over the field. Outside of Hilton, Luck’s targets are average to below average, with tight end Dwayne Allen being the only one on the verge of moving into above average territory. Reggie Wayne is 35 and coming off a major injury, Colby Fleener has been an underachiever and Hakeem Nicks is far removed from any semblance of his early years as a star with the Giants. Wayne suffered an elbow injury last week and could sit this game out, which would leave Nicks and rookie Donte Moncrief with more prominent roles.

The Steelers defense has managed to be effective against the pass, allowing 230.9 yards per game with 10 touchdowns through seven games. However, it should be noted that the team has faced Brian Hoyer (x2), Joe Flacco, Mike Glennon, Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick, so as they say, the stats sometimes lie. Truth be told, the Steelers secondary lacks talent. Andrew Luck should easily pick this unit apart.

Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson is still a disappointment to those that thought he could become the next Adrian Peterson, but he has at least looked better in 2014 than he did last season after getting traded to the Colts. While “better” is always a relative term, when talking about a back that averaged 3.0 per carry, the relativity is taken to another level. Richardson looks lumbering at times, especially when attempting to change directions and has exhibited poor vision, but is a powerful back once he gets up to speed. Last season he was outplayed by Donald Brown and this season Ahmad Bradshaw has clearly been the better back each week. Bradshaw is averaging 4.8 yards per carry as compared to Richardson’s 3.5, and has added 7 touchdowns this season, including 6 on receptions. Bradshaw has played through injuries during most of his career and coming off a serious neck injury and with his chronic foot issues, it’s remarkable what he’s been able to accomplish. Richardson suffered a pulled hamstring and has not been practicing this week. The pull is considered minor, but if he can’t go, Bradshaw could be looking at his biggest workload yet.

The Steelers are only allowing 114.1 yards per game on the ground, despite losing promising rookie Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones for multiple weeks to injury. Last week Arian Foster mostly had his way, especially in the first half, so perhaps the lack of depth is starting to catch up with this team. Nevertheless, the Colts are slowly moving away from trying to be a power ground based attack after finally realizing where their bread is buttered.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 335 pass yds, 3 TDs, 35 rush yds
Ahmad Bradshaw: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 40 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 45 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger bounced back in Week 7 from a poor performance against Cleveland and the Pittsburgh offense was finally effective in the redzone on Monday Night. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley displayed some trickery when receiver Antonio Brown broke off of his end around run to throw a touchdown pass to Lance Moore from inside the ten yard line. Disappointing second year receiver Markus Wheaton is still trying to find chemistry with Big Ben, and lost snaps last week to rookie Martavis Bryant. The rookie has intriguing size that the Steelers have lacked at the position for years and was able to beat corner back Andre Hal on a nice move to catch a 35-yard touchdown in the back of the end zone. He likely earned a bigger role going forward. The Steelers desperately need another player to step up and support star Antonio Brown in the passing game.

Indianapolis is sporting a top-5 pass defense, allowing only 214.4 passing yards per game and 8 touchdowns through the air. With 21 sacks on the season, the Colts have a chance of making life miserable for Roethlisberger behind and improving but still below average offensive line. The Colts have been doing it without a dominant single pass rusher with Robert Mathis out for the year, but have been getting contributions from multiple players like Bjoern Werner (4), D’Qwell Jackson (3), Eric Walden (3) and Cory Redding (3).

Running Game Thoughts: Last week I called Le’Veon Bell the best running back in the league this season behind the Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray, and both running backs did nothing to change my mind in Week 7. Bell finally found the endzone again for the first time since Week 1, this time grabbing a pass when he was left wide open at the right pylon after moving out wide pre-snap. Bell lost 20 pounds over the offseason, maintaining his power and quick feet, but adding more agility and straight-line speed into the mix. Bell is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and also excels in the passing game with 36 receptions for 339 yards on the season. LeGarrette Blount has been worked into the mix to spell Bell at times but his usage has been becoming less frequent in recent weeks, as the team has struggled whenever Bell is on the sidelines.

The Colts also feature a top-10 run defense allowing 96.7 yards per game but have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. 20 rush yds
Le’Veon Bell: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
LeGarrette Blount: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Antonio Brown: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Martavis Bryant: 60 rec yds
Markus Wheaton: 25 rec yds
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Colts 34, Steelers 24 ^ Top

Rams @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: A matchup against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks secondary made most fantasy owners worried about Austin Davis’ fantasy outlook in Week 7, but the young signal caller stepped up in a big way by throwing for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t spectacular for fantasy purposes, but perhaps the most important thing for fantasy owners and the Rams alike is that he was able to avoid turning the ball over. That helped keep the Rams in the game and eventually led to a surprise upset win over the defending Super Bowl Champions. Of course, as has been an ongoing story over the past two seasons, no St. Louis receiver surpassed even the 50-yard mark in the victory. In fact, it was backup tight end Lance Kendricks and backup running back Benny Cunningham who made the two touchdown receptions. Only Brian Quick has been any bit of consistent coming out of this passing game, but even Quick has fallen off over the past two weeks, making just three total catches in that span.

While he does still have some value as a WR3, Quick should probably be on most fantasy benches this week as he and the Rams go up against a Kansas City defense that hasn’t allowed an opposing team to pass for over 270 yards yet this season. While the Chiefs have conceded at least one passing touchdown in every game, this isn’t a particularly exciting matchup and Davis should probably be on most benches.

Running Game Thoughts: The running back situation in St. Louis has been a revolving door since Jeff Fisher took over as the head coach, but it appears as if there might finally be some stability coming to the position. Rookie running back Tre Mason has broken out as the clear top ball carrier in the offense after having essentially been irrelevant through the majority of the season prior to Week 7. The lack of success on the ground from either Zac Stacy or Cunningham has meant that the team went to Mason earlier than they likely wanted to, but the experiment appears to be paying off. At least it is so far. Mason rushed for 85 yards on 18 carries last week, including a touchdown. While Cunningham is still getting quite a bit of work on third down which does limit Mason’s upside particularly in the passing game, Stacy has now essentially become a complete non-factor from a fantasy standpoint. Stacy saw just one snap in Week 7 and there is little reason to believe that it will change any time in the near future.

Mason and the Rams will have a tough time producing big fantasy numbers against this Kansas City defense, however, as they are one of only two defensive units in the league that has not yet allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Mason is an interesting fantasy situation to watch, but given the sudden changes that the St. Louis backfield has had over the past couple of weeks and the less-than-inspiring matchup, he should probably be on most fantasy benches this week.

Projections:
Austin Davis: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 65 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 25 rec yds, 25 rec yds
Brian Quick: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It was a huge, marquee win for Kansas City this past week when Alex Smith and the Chiefs marched into San Diego and took down their division rival and one of the hottest teams in the league. As has been the case of most of his career, Smith did not have too much of the load put on his shoulders in that contest and his fantasy production was only acceptable. Smith’s passing numbers have never been spectacular and it’s unlikely that they ever will be, but the fact that he has only thrown one interception over the course of his past five games has made him a decent low-end fantasy starter in most games. The one disappointing thing is that after rushing for a career high of 431 yards in 2013, he is not on that pace this season. The other unfortunate part of Smith’s playing style has been that there really isn’t’ a reliable fantasy receiver in the Chiefs offense. The closest thing, perhaps, has been tight end Travis Kelce who has enjoyed a bit of a breakout to start the season. Kelce caught a touchdown in three straight games earlier in the year. Unfortunately he has not even been on the field for 50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps as he is primarily a receiving option and doesn’t yet have the consistent blocking pedigree to be an every down tight end.

On the bright side, Smith and the Kansas City passing game does have a great opportunity this week as they host the Rams and their 30th-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. They’ve conceded massive games to both Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick in back-to-back games, which should leave Smith with an opportunity to have a great game of his own.

Running Game Thoughts: Since missing essentially two full games earlier this season, Jamaal Charles has returned and pretty much been his usual studly self. He has nearly 300 yards of offense over his past three games while scoring two touchdowns. It’s worth noting that he hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in any game yet this year and he hasn’t been quite as involved in the passing game as he was during his massive 2013 season, but Charles is still producing as a rock solid RB1. His success and steady production has meant that Knile Davis, who produced big numbers while Charles was out, has barely seen the field. Unfortunately, Charles will have a tough task in this game, as hell be up against a St. Louis defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs on the year. While they haven’t yet played Charles, the Rams have gone up against some of the league’s best runners in DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch. It’d be ridiculous to bench a player like Charles, but this matchup doesn’t scream huge numbers, even for a player of his caliber.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Rams 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Cardinals - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Through the first three weeks of the season, it appeared as if Philadelphia’s Nick Foles was well on his way to having another amazing season. He set records for his 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013 and came out with three straight 300-yard games to start the year in 2014. Then came a disastrous Week 4 performance on the road against the San Francisco 49ers when Foles threw for just 195 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions. Including and since that contest, Foles has averaged just 217 passing yards per game while throwing just four touchdowns with five interceptions. It appears as if he’s in a bit of a funk from a production standpoint and the team’s Week 7 bye really could not have come at a better time as he and the Eagles will be traveling across the country to play against the Arizona Cardinals. This game could potentially have playoff implications later in the season, so the Eagles will need Foles to perform up to expectations.

It’ll be interesting to see how he does as he goes up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that held rookie Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game out of the end zone in Week 7, but had conceded a total of six touchdown passes and 833 total yards passing over the course of their previous two games against the Broncos and Redskins. There are holes to be found against this defense and one of the players who might be in line for a nice day is tight end Zach Ertz. The Cardinals currently rank 25th in the league in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends and that’s actually a huge step up from 2013 when they were one of the worst defenses in NFL history against that position.

Running Game Thoughts: After being taken No. 1 overall in a high percentage of fantasy drafts this off-season, LeSean McCoy has taken quite a bit of heat from fantasy owners for his lack of production in the early part of the season. While he started off with two low-double-digit games (standard scoring), McCoy nearly dropped off the face of the planet from Weeks 3 through 5, rushing for just 120 total yards and failing to score a single touchdown. Worse yet, McCoy’s production in the receiving game was nonexistent as he caught just five passes for a total of five yards during those weeks. While his production in the passing game didn’t really improve and he still didn’t get into the end zone, McCoy owners had to be a bit encouraged by what he did the last time he was on the field as he rushed for 149 yards on 22 carries.

It’ll be back to the grind this week, though, as McCoy will be running against an Arizona Cardinals defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year. The Cardinals haven’t exactly gone up against a who’s who of extraordinary running back talents, but it’s still a bit concerning for McCoy owners that they have been so good at shutting down the run, conceding just an average of just 58 rushing yards per game. It’s true that the Philadelphia offense has lost some of the explosion it had in 2013 and perhaps McCoy will not regain his status as one of the league’s top scoring options at the running back position, but he’s still worth a start even in a tough matchup. You just never know when a player of this talent level is going to break out and win you a fantasy game. The Eagles have had an entire week off to get healthy and fix the problems on their offense. Look for them to get McCoy involved early and often in this one.

Projections:
Nick Foles: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jeremy Maclin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 50 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: He missed three weeks early in the year, but it’s almost as if quarterback Carson Palmer did not missed a beat in returning to the Arizona lineup back in Week 6. Since that point, Palmer has thrown for over 500 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception, leading the way for back-to-back Cardinals wins. Perhaps more importantly than Palmer’s success, however, has been the resurgence of his top two targets, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, who have been the recipients of three of those scores. Fitzgerald’s impressive Week 6 performance where he made six catches for 98 yards and a score were a bit overshadowed by the lack of production he gave fantasy owners in Week 7, as he caught just two passes for 21 yards. Still, the big game in Week 6 has to be a bit inspiring from a fantasy standpoint given that he has not had that kind of a game in quite some time. Meanwhile, Floyd continues to be one of the NFL’s breakout players this season as he has now caught touchdowns in back-to-back contests. While Floyd did have two highly disappointing performances earlier in the year, they both came in games without Carson Palmer behind center and he has been in double digits in each of the three games he has played with Palmer so far in 2014.

The Cardinals passing game appears to be clicking and should have an opportunity to put up nice numbers in this game as they go up against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has been atrocious at stopping opposing passing games so far this season. Philadelphia conceded 13 passing touchdowns including multiple passing scores in every contest through their first five games of the season before finally locking down Eli Manning and the Giants in a blowout victory back in Week 6. While the Eagles seem to be rushing the passer better now and Arizona’s offensive line still leaves much to be desired, it would be shocking if they were able to do to Palmer and the Cardinals what they did to Manning and the Giants. Look for another nice day out of Floyd and a solid performance from Palmer, but Fitzgerald still appears to be a major wildcard and his production could vary greatly depending on how the game pans out.

Running Game Thoughts: The Arizona offense as a whole has been very up and down this season, but one player who has filled in nicely for the team whenever they need him is running back Andre Ellington. Ellington, who was predicted by many to be one of the breakout performers of 2014, has only scored two touchdowns through his first six games this season, but has still provided his team and fantasy owners with a steady stream of fantasy production. Ellington is one of only three backs (DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell) who has at least 75 yards of total offense in every game he has played so far this season. His production in the passing game is matched by very few as well, as is currently on pace for 67 receptions for nearly 700 yards. If he keeps up this pace, Ellington will surpass 1,700 yards and immediately become part of the discussion as a potential first round fantasy draft pick in 2015. In Week 8, he’ll be up against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has conceded an average of 17.8 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to the running back position and could be in trouble when it comes to trying to stop the shifty young back from catching passes out of the backfield. With Palmer back behind center, stretching the defense with effective downfield passing, Ellington has seen the running lanes open up for him in recent weeks and should be in line for a nice game, particularly in PPR formats.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 250 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Andre Ellington: 65 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Eagles 24 ^ Top