Chargers @ Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Consistent
elite fantasy production has made Philip Rivers one of the highest
scorers in all of fantasy football this season. Rivers has now
passed for two or more touchdowns in each of his past six games
and has thrown for three scores in four of his seven contests.
The incredible thing has been that, of his 22 total scores, not
a single one of them has gone to Keenan Allen, who was expected
to be the team’s top-scoring receiver. Allen, who does lead
the team with 34 receptions and is second with 354 receiving yards,
has gone over 60 yards just once on the year and has just about
fallen off the fantasy radar because of it. Meanwhile, veteran
tight end Antonio Gates continues to surprise everyone by not
only holding of Ladarius Green from taking his spot in the lineup,
but by producing massive fantasy numbers. Gates has scored four
touchdowns over the past three weeks and that, along with his
three-touchdown performance back in Week 2, has made Gates the
No. 3 tight end in fantasy football. Wide receiver Eddie Royal
has taken a step back over the past three weeks as he has caught
only six passes including one touchdown without having a game
over 50 yards, but he is always a threat to get into the end zone.
This week, the Chargers’ high-powered passing attack will
be in a favorable matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks
24th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
While they have a pass rush that is capable of getting to Rivers,
it would not be at all surprising to see this be the highest-scoring
game of the week, and therefore you should probably be putting
just about every one of these players into your fantasy lineup.
Rivers is an absolute must-start until proven otherwise.
Running Game Thoughts: One of the breakout fantasy stars of the
2014 season has been running back Branden Oliver of the San Diego
Chargers, whose short stature and familiar jersey number have
many calling him “the new Darren Sproles.” Oliver
is a slightly less speedy agile, but stronger version of Sproles,
but the comparisons do make some sense. In his three games as
the lead back for the Chargers, Oliver has compiled a total of
384 yards while scoring three touchdowns. While he had a disappointing
performance against the Chiefs in Week 7 where he ran for just
67 yards and caught just two passes for eleven yards, Oliver has
shown that he is more than capable of being a high quality fantasy
producer and should be in most lineups even this week against
a Denver defense that has looked great against the run all year.
The 310 yards they’ve allowed to the position on the ground
are the fewest in the league, although it makes sense when you
consider that opposing teams have only attempted a total of 107
rushes against them on the season, which is also fewest in the
NFL. With the Chargers being one of the few teams that can realistically
match firepower with the Denver offense, Oliver should have more
opportunities than your average back does against the Broncos.
If he touches the ball 15 times in this game, he should have a
good chance to put up a good enough fantasy day to be a solid
RB2.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 275 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
Branden Oliver: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 70 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 40 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning is the single highest scoring
player in the history of fantasy football. No, really, he is.
It’s easy to forget just how dominant this guy has been
over the course of his career, but during the Broncos’ blowout
win over the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, we all got to see
a piece of history as he surpassed Brett Favre’s single
season NFL record for career passing touchdowns. Manning now sits
alone atop the record books without a realistic competitor for
his record coming anytime soon. You’d think that this was
just a product of him playing for a very long time, but the truth
is that Manning is arguably playing better right now than he ever
has before. While he is slightly off his single season record-shattering
touchdown pace from a season ago, Manning is still well on his
way to having another third season of 45-plus touchdowns. These
absurd numbers have meant amazing things for the Denver offense,
and particularly “the Thomases,” Demaryius and Julius.
Julius failed to catch a touchdown pass for the first time this
year in Week 7, but is still on pace to blow past the single-season
receiving touchdown record for the tight end position. Manning
looks his way early and often just about every time the team is
in the red zone and just because he didn’t score once doesn’t
mean that you should have any concerns about playing him. Demaryius,
on the other hand, continued the incredible pace that he has been
on by catching eight passes for 171 yards and two scores against
the 49ers. Thomas has now compiled 521 yards and five touchdowns
in the three games since the Broncos’ bye week and could
easily be considered the No. 1 wide receiver in all of fantasy
football for the remainder of the year.
San Diego’s pass defense has been good this year, as they’ve
allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide
receivers, but there is no question that fantasy owners should
continue to put their Broncos into their lineup without much concern.
Even Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker, who had been held scoreless
thus far in 2014, were able to get into the end zone in Week 7,
so this offense is firing on all cylinders now.
Running Game Thoughts: After two disappointing seasons as a pro,
Denver running back Ronnie Hillman appears to finally be settling
into his role in the Broncos’ offense as a “change
of pace” for this incredible passing game. HIllman’s
improved work as a pass protector for Manning has allowed the
coaching staff to give him a green light to be the team’s
every down back for the time being. Montee Ball will be back in
a few weeks and we could see him get some work once he does return,
but it would be hard for the Broncos to justify sitting Hillman
at this point, who has delighted his fantasy owners to the tune
of 283 total yards and two touchdowns since becoming the team’s
starter back in Week 5. Given the fact that he will almost certainly
touch the ball between 12-to-18 times per week in the NFL’s
best offense as long as Ball is out, Hillman is essentially a
lock to be a quality RB2 fantasy producer. Better yet, he has
realistic RB1 upside not just for this week, but for the remainder
of the season, even if Ball returns and continues to get some
touches. In Week 8, Hillman will be running against a San Diego
defense that had held opposing teams’ running games under
75 yards in each of their first five contests, but has since conceded
112 and 125 yards in back-to-back games. Hillman won’t likely
get enough total carries to crack the 100-yard rushing mark in
this contest, but 100 total yards isn’t out of the question
and a touchdown is certainly a good possibility. Therefore he
should be started in all formats until we see him prove otherwise.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 315 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Ronnie Hillman: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 60 rec yds, 2 TD
Prediction: Broncos 34, Chargers 27 ^ Top
Lions at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: A good way
to describe the Detroit Lions passing attack as they take on the
Falcons in London this week is “questionable.” It’s
not the team’s talent we’re talking about, it’s
their health. Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron and
Reggie Bush are just some of the team’s offensive weapons
hurting, and the status for each is up in the air. However, fantasy
owners can still safely rely upon a pair of Lions this week in
Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate. Each should be firmly entrenched
in fantasy lineups against the Falcons shaky pass defense.
Atlanta is T-3rd in the league in TD passes surrendered, but don’t
let that fool you – this is not a good pass defense. They
are 29th in the NFL against the pass, and no team is allowing
more yards per pass attempt. The Falcons are giving up the 12th-fewest
FPts/G to quarterbacks, but that’s mostly because teams
score on the ground against them. And though Atlanta has done
well limiting tight ends – permitting the 4th-fewest FPts/G
in the league to players at that position – they’ve
allowed the 4th-most receiving yards and T-12th-most FPts/G to
wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned
above, Bush is hurting, and though he still could suit up, will
likely be limited, which means Joique Bell will get most of the
work. He’s not running the ball wonderfully so far this
season, averaging only 3.3 YPC, but does have three rushing scores
and has an outstanding match-up this week against an Atlanta team
that gives up oodles of rushing TDs.
The Falcons simply can’t stop teams from scoring on running
plays, which is bad for them, but good for fantasy owners. Atlanta
is 27th in the league in run defense, but last in rushing scores
surrendered. In fact, the 13 rushing TDs, they’ve allowed
is a full five more than any other team. The Falcons have also
given up the third-most receiving yards in the league to running
backs, and when you put all that in a pot and mix it up, you have
a team that has easily allowed the most FPts/G in the league to
running backs.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 255 pass yds, 2 TD
Joique
Bell: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Reggie
Bush: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Golden
Tate: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Corey
Fuller: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy
Ross: 30 rec yds
Brandon
Pettigrew: 35 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Though the
Falcons have been as disappointing as any team in the league this
season, from a fantasy perspective that hasn’t necessarily
been the case. Matt Ryan is second in the league in passing yards
and 6th among quarterbacks in fantasy points, the same position
as Julio Jones ranks at WR. Roddy White is only 30th in fantasy
points, but he did have nine receptions for 100 yards and a score
last week, and remains a WR2 or WR3 most weeks. Unfortunately
for White’s fantasy owners, he and his teammates in the
passing game have a poor match-up with against Detroit.
The Lions have been shutting down opposing passing games all year.
They rank 7th in the league in pass defense, are tied with Baltimore
for fewest passing scores permitted, are 6th in yards per pass
attempt allowed, and are T-3rd in interceptions. Drew Brees did
have 342 yards and two TDs against the Lions last week, but the
team is still allowing the fewest FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks.
They’re middle of the road in terms of FPts/G to tight ends,
but are tied for fewest TD receptions given up to wide receivers,
and are allowing the second-fewest FPts/G to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t
much to like concerning Atlanta’s running game, considering
that Antone Smith leads their running backs in fantasy points
but has only carried the ball 16 times all season. Steven Jackson
remains the team’s lead back, but is rarely good as anything
more than a flex play. He doesn’t even qualify for that
this week against the stingy Detroit run defense.
As good as the Lions have been against the pass, they’ve
been even better against the run. The team is 2nd in the league
in run defense, T-5th in rushing scores given up, and is 4th in
YPC allowed. No running back has had a game with at least 85 rushing
yards when facing Detroit and only one has even broken 50 yards.
They have allowed the 10th-fewest FPts/G to running backs, a number
that should be better except for the fact that the Lions have
surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards in the NFL to running
backs.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 180 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Steven
Jackson: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Julio
Jones: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy
White: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Devin
Hester: 25 rec yds
Levine
Toilolo: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Lions 24, Falcons 17
^ Top
Vikings at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: It took four
games, but Teddy Bridgewater finally threw his first TD pass of
the season last week against Buffalo. Unfortunately, he also threw
a pair of interceptions, and now has five picks on the season.
The rookie is usually not a fantasy option, but this week against
the horrendous Tampa pass defense, he should at least be considered
for fantasy owners needing a QB due to a bye or injury. WR Greg
Jennings is the team’s leading receiver, and though his
one TD means he’s well down the scoring list at his position,
he should be inserted into all fantasy lineups this week versus
the Buccaneers.
It is with confidence that any football fan can look at the Bucs
and say they are having a somewhat difficult time stopping their
opponents from moving the ball via forward pass. They are giving
up the most FPts/G in the NFL to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.
They are last in pass defense, second to last in yards per pass
attempt allowed, and tied for second to last in TD passes surrendered.
But hey, Tampa is only allowing the 11th-most FPts/G to tight
ends. So they have that going for them.
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners
who drafted Adrian Peterson with a high pick are surely in a tough
spot with their teams, but it’s a spot they can dig out
of if they nabbed Jerick McKinnon with a handcuff. The rookie
from Georgia Southern had 103 yards last week against a tough
Buffalo run defense, and has shown to be capable as a receiver
as well. He hasn’t scored yet, but this week seems like
an opportune time for him to find pay dirt.
Teams throw all over Tampa Bay, but that hasn’t stopped
them from running it with effectiveness as well. The Bucs are
25th in the league in rush defense, T-26th in rushing scores yielded,
and 15th in YPC allowed. They have also given up plenty of receiving
yards to backs, and have allowed the 4th-most FPts/G in the league
to running backs.
Projections:
Teddy
Bridgewater: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jerick
McKinnon: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Greg
Jennings: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarius
Wright: 70 rec yds
Cordarrelle
Patterson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Chase
Ford: 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon
has fared better than many expected since he became the team’s
starter, and has multiple scoring passes in each of his last three
games while throwing for over 300 yards in each of them. He has
a couple of big wide receivers to throw to in Vincent Jackson
and rookie Mike Evans, with Evans having scored in his previous
two games. Jackson has been a disappointment this year, but fantasy
owners shouldn’t quit on him just yet, and the fact that
he’s 14th among wide receivers in targets bodes well if
he can start coming down with a few more of those throws, starting
this week against the Vikings.
Minnesota is 9th in the league against the pass, T-20th in passing
scores given up, 15th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and T-14th
in interceptions. They have held opposing quarterbacks to -2 rushing
yards this season, the best mark in the league, and are T-4th-fewest
FPts/G surrendered to players at that position. However, it should
be noted that opponents like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers ceased
throwing much after their teams got out to big leads, and they
did allow 280+ yards and two scores to Kyle Orton a week ago.
The Vikings are doing well against tight ends, allowing the 5th-fewest
FPts/G to players at that position, and are 16th in FPts/G surrendered
to wide receivers, despite Sammy Watkins going off for 122 yards
and a pair of scores last week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bucs
have a pair of running backs in Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey who
are each wholly underwhelming. Rainey did have one excellent game,
but that was in Week 2, though it is one more excellent game than
Martin’s had all season. Minnesota is a good match-up for
Martin, so using him as a flex play is an option, but any hope
of his returning to his rookie form is fading every week.
The Vikings are 19th in the league in run defense, T-20th in rushing
scores given up, and 21st in YPC allowed. Ranking 19th, 20th,
and 21st in 32-team league isn’t good, and the fantasy numbers
bear that out. Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards
in the league to running backs this season, and is giving up the
7th-most FPts/G to players at the position.
Projections:
Mike
Glennon: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Doug
Martin: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Bobby
Rainey: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Vincent
Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike
Evans: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis
Murphy: 35 rec yds
Austin
Seferian-Jenkins: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Vikings 27, Buccaneers
21 ^ Top
Texans at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick
has been about what people should have expected, having thrown
eight TDs with seven picks while ranking 20th at his position
in fantasy points. He has a pair of solid wide receivers to throw
to in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, yet both of Fitzpatrick’s
TD throws last week against Pittsburgh went to running backs.
Go figure. In fact, Johnson has just a single TD reception all
season, but has 21 more targets than Hopkins and is the team’s
leading receiver. Both wide receivers should come into play for
fantasy owners this week against the Titans.
Tennessee is 21st in the league in pass defense, T-20th in passing
scores ceded, 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed, but are
T-3rd with eight interceptions. They are T-13th fewest FPts/G
given up to quarterbacks, but they’ve been poor of late,
having gotten scorched by Andrew Luck and Brian Hoyer in Weeks
4 and 5, respectively, allowing Blake Bortles to throw for more
than 330 yards with a TD in Week 6, and letting Colt McCoy complete
11 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a TD last week. As for the pass-catchers,
Tennessee is average in terms of FPts/G given up to wide receivers,
but have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards and 5th-most FPts/G
to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Due to Houston’s
early bye, Arian Foster has played one fewer game than most other
top running backs in the league, yet he’s still third in
fantasy points. He had 102 rushing yards last week, marking the
fifth time in six games Foster has amassed over 100 yards on the
ground. There’s little else to say about the fantasy star,
a true running back1 who should have another bountiful week against
Tennessee.
The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in rush defense, T-20th in rushing
scores permitted, and 13th in YPC allowed. Only six teams have
given up more rushing yards to running backs than Tennessee, but
no squad has surrendered fewer receiving yards to players at the
position. That’s helped them limit fantasy points, and they’re
allowing the 14th-fewest in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Ryan
Fitzpatrick: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Arian
Foster: 115 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds
Alfred
Blue: 25 rush yds
DeAndre
Hopkins: 85 rec yds
Andre
Johnson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Garrett
Graham: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: It was thought
earlier in the week that Jake Locker would be healthy enough to
play against Houston, but not only will he not start, neither
will Charlie Whitehurst. Instead, rookie Zach Mettenberger will
get the call as the team tries to turn its season around. Tennessee
wasn’t loaded with fantasy playmakers in the first place,
but turning to a rookie QB in the middle of the season doesn’t
bode well for the likes of Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker,
who has cooled after a very hot start. The Titans’ wide
receivers have a good match-up, yet Wright is the only one who
deserves fantasy consideration, and probably only as a WR3.
The Texans are struggling to contain the pass, ranking 26th in
the league in pass defense, and T-26th in TD passes given up.
Over their last five games, every QB Houston has faced has tossed
multiple scoring passes, and the Texans are surrendering the 13th-most
FPts/G to quarterbacks and the 8th-most FPts/G to wide receivers,
though they are T-9th-fewest FPts/G given up to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: It would
be much easier to talk about Tennessee’s running game if
they had much of one. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, neither
Bishop Sankey nor Shonn Greene has done much to establish themselves
this season. Greene missed last week’s game against Washington,
allowing Sankey to get 16 carries, for which he picked up only
56 yards and didn’t score. Green should be back this week,
but neither running back has a place in fantasy lineups against
the Texans, despite their mediocre run defense.
Houston is 20th in the NFL against the run and 18th in YPC allowed,
but are T-10th in rushing scores surrendered. They’ve also
been prone to allowing some big games, having let two running
backs amass at least 135 rushing yards, and have given up the
7th-most receiving yards in the league to running backs, all of
which equals a team that has allowed the 12th-most FPts/G to running
backs.
Projections:
Zach
Mettenberger: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Bishop
Sankey: 40 rush yds
Shonn
Greene: 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Kendall
Wright: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin
Hunter: 35 rec yds
Nate
Washington: 25 rec yds
Delanie
Walker: 45 rec yds
Prediction: Texans 31, Titans 20
^ Top
Seahawks at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Last week,
Russell Wilson became the first QB in history to pass for 300
yards and run for 100 in the same game during his team’s
loss to the Rams. He’s now eighth at his position in fantasy
points, though much of that has to do with his running rather
than passing, because up until last week Wilson had just one other
game this season with more than 202 yards through the air. And
now that Percy Harvin is gone, the team’s leading weapon
at WR is Doug Baldwin, who compiled 123 yards and his first TD
last week, but is 57th in fantasy points at his position. He should
rise in those rankings, starting this week against a Panthers
team that has been shredded as of late.
Aaron Rodgers sliced through the Carolina pass defense last week,
completing all but three of his 22 pass attempts, and over their
last four contests, the Panthers have allowed multiple scoring
passes and at least 250 yards to every starting QB they’ve
faced. Due in no small part to that, the team is allowing the
6th-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and are tied for second-most TD
passes allowed in the league. On the positive front for their
pass defense, Carolina has given up the 3rd-fewest FPts/G to tight
ends, and is the only team in the NFL that has not allowed a TD
catch to a player at that position. On the not-so-positive front,
no team has surrendered more TD receptions to wide receivers than
Carolina, and only three are allowing more FPts/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch remains in the top tier of fantasy running backs, ranking
6th in fantasy scoring at his position, but it’s not necessarily
because of his running prowess. Lynch actually leads his team
in receiving TDs with three, which is the same number of scores
he’s amassed on the ground this season. He has just a single
game with 100 rushing yards this year, and hasn’t scored
on the ground in his last three games. However, the Panthers do
offer an opportunity for Beast Mode to resurface as Carolina is
struggling mightily this season to stop the run.
The Panthers were one of the best run defenses in the NFL last
season, and that was supposed to continue on into 2014. That hasn’t
happened. Carolina is 26th in the NFL in run defense, tied for
second to last in rushing scores permitted, and are allowing the
most YPC of any team in the league. They’ve also given up
the 2nd-most rushing yards in the league to running backs, and
just two teams are giving up more FPts/G to running backs than
the Panthers.
Projections:
Russell
Wilson: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 35 rush yds
Marshawn
Lynch: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 30 rec yds
Doug
Baldwin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine
Kearse: 50 rec yds
Paul
Richardson: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Luke
Willson: 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton
is having a solid season for his fantasy owners, with eight TDs
and just three picks while averaging 225 passing yards per contest
and rushing for nearly 200 yards. He has two reliable, fantasy-worthy
targets to throw to in WR Kelvin Benjamin and TE Greg Olsen. Each
has five TD catches this season, with Benjamin ranking 8th at
his position in fantasy points, and Olsen 2nd. In 2013, even with
those gaudy numbers, it would be risky to play either pass-catcher
against the Seahawks, but this season things have been different.
Seattle has been looser in terms of pass defense, and though Benjamin
remains a bit of a risk, he should still be in lineups. As for
Olsen, he is one of the better plays of the week at any position,
going up against a unit that seems to forget tight ends exist
once they get near the end zone.
The vaunted Seattle pass defense is a little less so this season.
The team is 14th in the league against the pass and T-20th in
passing TDs given up. Though they’re allowing the 13th-fewest
FPts/G to quarterbacks, every QB since Week 1 has thrown multiple
scores against them and they have just two interceptions. The
Seahawks still do well against wide receivers, holding them to
the 7th-fewest FPts/G, but the eight TDs they’ve surrendered
to tight ends is the most in the NFL, and just two teams are allowing
more FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The Panthers
have struggled with injury at running back this season, with Jonathan
Stewart and DeAngelo Williams each missing time. This has led
to Cam Newton – who also missed a game this season –
to be the team’s leading rusher with only 190 yards on the
ground. Considering Carolina’s opponent this week, do the
safe thing and leave all Panthers running backs where they belong
– on fantasy benches.
Despite their relative struggles against the pass, the Seahawks
remain dangerous to opposing running attacks. They are 6th in
the league against the run, T-5th in rushing scores surrendered,
and only Arizona is allowing fewer YPC than Seattle. The ‘Hawks
have been burned at times by receptions by running backs, but
only three teams have given up fewer rushing yards to running
backs, and they’re T-11th-fewest FPts/G allowed to players
at that position.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan
Stewart: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Kelvin
Benjamin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jerricho
Cotchery: 45 rec yds
Greg
Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 28, Panthers
24 ^ Top
Dolphins at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill
is having a decent if unspectacular season, ranking 19th in fantasy
points among quarterbacks. Though he doesn’t have a deep
cache of pass-catchers to throw to, Tannehill does have one very
good option in WR Mike Wallace. After a disappointing first season
in Miami, Wallace has somewhat quietly caught five TDs and is
14th at his position in fantasy points. His ramped up production
has possibly come at the expense of TE Charles Clay, who is barely
a TE2 anymore. He could be in line for a solid day this week,
however, because Miami faces a Jacksonville defense that has gotten
lit up on numerous occasions this season.
The Jaguars are a well below average unit when it comes to defending
the pass, despite the fact they haven’t allowed a TD pass
the last two weeks. It should also be noted that they faced the
less than formidable duo of Charlie Whitehurst and Brian Hoyer
in those two contests. For the season, Jacksonville is 30th in
pass defense and T-20th in passing TDs allowed. They are T-11th-most
FPts/G surrendered to quarterbacks, T-12th-most FPts/G allowed
to wide receivers, and have given up the 6th-most FPts/G to tight
ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Mike Wallace
isn’t the only Dolphins player putting up fantasy-worthy
numbers a season later than most thought. Lamar Miller has proven
to be the capable runner/receiver that many predicted he could
be, with over 100 receiving yards, nearly 400 rushing yards and
four total TDs in six games. He is 8th in fantasy points at running
back, and should be in lineups as a running back2 this week versus
the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is 15th in the league in run defense, T-15th in rushing
scores permitted, and is 9th in YPC allowed. Yet they’ve
also allowed the 10th-most receiving yards in the NFL and a pair
of receiving scores to running backs, so they are still giving
up the 13th-most FPts/G to players at that position.
Projections:
Ryan
Tannehill: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Lamar
Miller: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Mike
Wallace: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Jarvis
Landry: 55 rec yds
Brian
Hartline: 30 rec yds
Charles
Clay: 35 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Jacksonville
has shown very little in the passing game this season, and rookie
Blake Bortles continues to struggle with turnovers, throwing three
interceptions last week in Jacksonville’s win against Cleveland.
Cecil Shorts is really the only player involved in the Jaguars’
passing game worthy of fantasy consideration, but he had just
12 receiving yards last week on three catches despite being targeted
12 times. But Shorts should be out of all fantasy lineups this
week against Miami’s stellar pass defense.
The Dolphins have been formidable against opposing passing games
this year, ranking 4th in the league in pass defense and T-12th
in passing TDs allowed while holding opponents to the lowest yards
per pass attempt in the NFL. Just a pair of quarterbacks has amassed
at least 205 yards against Miami, and they’ve given up the
11th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks. And though the Fins have been
average against tight ends, just five squads have allowed fewer
FPts/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: After weeks
of being mostly mediocre, former Michigan QB Denard Robinson may
have found a home in Jacksonville at running back. He had 127
yards and a TD on 22 carries against the Browns last week and
should continue to be the team’s running back at least for
now. Fantasy owners get excited at the prospect of new running
backs, but caution should be used here. Robinson has a tough match-up
against the Dolphins and is little more than a low-end flex play.
Like their pass defense, the Miami run defense has been very solid
this season. The team ranks 10th in the league in rush defense,
they’re T-10th in rushing scores given up, and are 8th in
YPC allowed. They have been very good in terms of limiting opposing
backs on the ground, but are 15th in FPts/G surrendered to running
backs in part due to the fact players at that position have been
successful receivers against the Dolphins, having caught three
TD passes.
Projections:
Blake
Bortles: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Denard
Robinson: 65 rush yds
Storm
Johnson: 25 rush yds
Cecil
Shorts: 45 rec yds
Allen
Robinson: 40 rec yds
Marqise
Lee: 35 rec yds
Allen
Hurns: 20 rec yds
Clay
Harbor: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jaguars
16 ^ Top
Packers at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Last week
against Carolina, Aaron Rodgers had as many incompletions (three)
as he did TD passes, which is a somewhat remarkable stat. He’s
currently 5th in fantasy scoring at QB and has just a single interception
all season with 18 TD throws. Most of his throws go to wide receivers
Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and the pair is first and fourth,
respectively, in fantasy scoring at their position. Each is a
bona fide WR1, and each should be in lineups as such this week
against a New Orleans defense that pretty much just hands out
fantasy points to wide receivers.
After getting throttled by Matt Ryan in Week 1, the Saints held
opposing quarterbacks in check their next two games, albeit that
was against Brian Hoyer, Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater. For
the season, the Saints are 28th in the league in pass defense
and T-11th-most FPts/G given up to quarterbacks. They have allowed
the fewest receiving yards and FPts/G to tight ends, but the tune
changes when it comes to wide receivers. New Orleans has allowed
a WR to gain 140+ yards in each of their last two games, and only
the Buccaneers have given up more FPts/G to wide receivers this
season.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
is averaging a so-so 4.0 YPC this season, but he does have four
rushing TDs and can occasionally catch the ball, making him an
upper-echelon running back2. Some may say he’s in the running
back1 discussion because he’s 12th in fantasy scoring at
his position, but it’s hard to put a guy in that category
that is on a pass-first team and has played seven games but amassed
at least 50 rushing yards just twice. Lacy will try to make it
three times this week against the Saints.
New Orleans is 11th in the league in both run defense and YPC
allowed. However, they’re T-20th in rushing scores permitted,
and have allowed the 9th-most FPts/G in the league to running
backs despite not facing elite runners outside of DeMarco Murray.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 275 pass yds, 3 TD, 20 rush yds
Eddie
Lacy: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
James
Starks: 25 rush yds
Jordy
Nelson: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Randall
Cobb: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante
Adams: 45 rec yds
Andrew
Quarless: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
not that Drew Brees is having a disappointing season – he
has multiple TD passes in five of his six games this year and
has thrown for over 330 yards four times – but it hasn’t
really been a typical Brees season. The reason for that is simple
– TDs. He hasn’t thrown for more than a pair of scores
in a game this season and his 11 for the year is T-11th in the
league. It should help matters if TE Jimmy Graham’s shoulder
returns to health, because he did not catch a single pass last
week against Detroit and was barely targeted. WR Marques Colston
performed well in Graham’s stead, with over 100 receiving
yards, but he still has just a single score all season, and in
fact no Saints WR has more than one TD. They have a tough match-up
against the Packers this week, but are certainly capable of putting
up numbers.
Green Bay has done very well against the pass this year, ranking
6th in the league in pass defense. They’re T-6th in passing
scores yielded, T-4th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and are
2nd in interceptions. Despite those numbers, the Packers are in
the middle of the league in terms of FPts/G allowed to quarterbacks
because they’ve surrendered a pair of rushing scores and
allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Things
are a bit better at the other positions, as the Pack has given
up the 13th-fewest FPts/G to wide receivers, and the 8th-fewest
FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
returned to action last week and resumed being the player fantasy
owners had gotten to know over his career. He ran for just 18
yards on 10 carries, though in fairness that was against a very
good Detroit defense. This week he’ll square off against
a much-worse run defense as Green Bay comes to town, so if Ingram
is going to revert to the player he was at the beginning of the
season, it should happen this week.
The Packers have the second-worst run defense in the NFL, are
T-26th in rushing scores yielded, and are 25th in YPC allowed.
Yet a decent amount of that damage has been done by quarterbacks,
so Green Bay is just 14th in terms of FPts/G allowed to running
backs, though they have allowed the 9th-most rushing yards in
the league to running backs.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 335 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Mark
Ingram: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
Khiry
Robinson: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Travaris
Cadet: 15 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Marques
Colston: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny
Stills: 65 rec yds
Brandin
Cooks: 50 rec yds
Jimmy
Graham: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Packers 34, Saints 31
^ Top
Bears at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The only
team in the NFL with multiple wins who is also winless at home
is Chicago, whose three victories have all come away from Soldier
Field. After losing there again in Week 7 the team will not play
at home again until Week 11, with two road games separated by
a bye week. Fans aren’t the only ones frustrated by the
Bears winless ways, as WR Brandon Marshall let his feelings be
known to the media following their most recent loss. Historically,
a prominent offensive player voicing their displeasures results
in one of two things; either the team turns away from him and
seeks to utilize other weapons, or the offense seemingly runs
through the player in the following game as if to prove to the
world that all is well. In the case of Marshall, the latter may
be more likely, as he is currently the fourth leading receiver
in Chicago and third in targets, despite having a team-high five
touchdowns. On the road, QB Jay Cutler has ten touchdowns (one
rushing) and just two interceptions, while averaging 268 passing
yards per game and completing over 68% of his attempts. With Marshall
as the fourth most productive receiver on the team, the rest of
the offense is certainly doing quite well. Averaging over 70 yards
per game and 15 per catch, WR Alshon Jeffery is the team’s
big play receiver. Big TE Martellus Bennett has recorded four
scores and averages over 60 yards per game, making him a valuable
target all over the field. Beyond these three and RB Matt Forte,
only four other Bears players have been targeted in the passing
game, and none have more than 65 yards or eight receptions through
six games.
Although they hope to be leaving the struggles from home behind
them, Chicago may not find their Week 8 contest much easier as
they will be up against the top rated pass defense in the league.
The Patriots are allowing only 208 passing yards per game, and
only three teams have both more interceptions and sacks than they
do. Their defensive approach has been two-pronged, with capable
pass rushers and an opportunistic secondary, but with recent injuries
the former part of that combination may be at risk. Already without
LB Jerod Mayo (knee) for the season, now DE Chandler Jones (hip)
is expected to be out for one month. This leaves the Patriots
thin at those positions, and though the remaining players are
capable of filling in adequately, the greatest risk comes when
substitutions are made or players become winded as the game wears
on them. The challenge for the Bears, who have given up the ninth
most sacks this season, will be neutralizing the talented pass
rushers which remain available for New England. Even if they are
able to do so, the Patriots secondary is one of the most talented
and deep groups in the league, presenting an incredible challenge
for most signal callers, not to mention the inconsistencies of
QB Jay Cutler and the Bears receiving corps.
Running Game Thoughts: If the Bears struggle moving the ball
through the air then even more pressure will be placed on RB Matt
Forte and the rushing attack. The versatility of the star ball
carrier allows him to be active in all parts of the offense, recording
nearly as many yards out of the backfield (62) as he does on the
ground (64), and giving him the second most yards from scrimmage
for the entire league. Although the team tends to be better when
on the road, Forte has put in his two best performances of the
season at home. For the season Chicago has barely escaped the
bottom quarter of the league with only 95 rushing yards per game,
with the vast majority of them coming from planned Forte runs
or improvised Cutler scrambles. The only other player with more
than five rushing attempts is RB Ka’Deem Carey, but other
than as a handcuff for a highly utilized ball carrier, he has
minimal fantasy value.
The matchup of the Week 8 contest will likely come from the ground
game, where the Patriots are equally as ineffective in stopping
the run as Chicago is in their rushing attack; both rank as the
ninth worst in their respective categories of rushing yards. The
offense has recorded four rushing touchdowns and the defense has
allowed the same number. For the season the Patriots have surrendered
and average of 126 yards per game, but during their three game
winning streak New England has allowed fewer than 80 yards on
two occasions. In the most recent contest however their opponent
gained 218 rushing yards and average over five yards per carry.
Only once this year has Forte averaged more than five yards per
carry, and in games where he didn’t gain 4.5 yards or more
per attempt he also failed to reach the 65-yard mark. Since the
Patriots have largely been subpar against the run, and the primary
Chicago ball carrier has been incredibly inconsistent, the unit
which performs best has the potential to control the game and
greatly influence it’s outcome.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 225 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Matt Forte: 70 rush yds, 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 55 rec yds
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: After the debacle that was Week 4, QB Tom
Brady has been as good as he’s been expected to be and the
Patriots have resumed their winning ways. Through the first four
weeks Brady never reached 250 passing and only recorded one touchdown
in each of the contests. He also threw his only interceptions
of the season during that time. From Week 5 and onward, Brady
has surpassed 260 yards in each game and has thrown at least two
scores in each. Part of the offensive reinvigoration is due to
the growing involvement of TE Rob Gronkowski, who has recorded
68 or more yards in each of the last three games after not gaining
45 in any of the first four. The team’s yardage leader however
is still WR Julian Edelman, though his totals have been on a downward
trajectory since the third week, with one exception two contests
ago. The issue that causes the Patriots to continue to struggle
is the lack of star power outside of the numbers, but WR Brandon
LaFell is slowly becoming a more consistent target out wide and
forcing opposing defenses into a more traditional coverage rather
than keying on the tight ends and slot receivers.
Considering the recent pace that Brady has set, the approximately-average
Bears pass defense may be in trouble. On the season Chicago has
conceded 248 passing yards per game and has allowed 12 touchdowns
through the air, though they’ve somewhat compensated for
that by forcing eight interceptions and 19 sacks; no team has
recorded more of both. Unfortunately for the Bears, in their four
most recent games they’ve conceded nine touchdowns compared
to just two interceptions, so they’ve gotten cold at about
the same time that the New England offense has gotten hot. Not
surprisingly Chicago has lost three of their last four games with
performances like that. During that same time frame the defense
has earned 11 of their 19 sacks, roughly the same rate as the
first three contests, so they’re still getting good pressure
on opposing quarterbacks, but the secondary isn’t doing
enough to capitalize on what the pass rushers are achieving. Facing
the Patriots passing attack all parts of the Chicago defense will
have to work together to avoid losing their fourth game in five
tries.
Running Game Thoughts: For at least one week, keeping in mind
that it was against one of the best rushing defenses in the league,
the loss of Stevan Ridley (knee, season) was not woefully apparent.
In his place RB Shane Vereen received the majority of the carries
but was mostly effective out of the backfield, highlighted by
an impressive 49-yard diving catch, which resulted in the game’s
first touchdown. Of the backups, undrafted rookie RB Jonas Gray
was on the field for 12 snaps compared to only one from Brandon
Bolden, and comments from Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels
suggest that Gray may be in line for a further expanded role in
the coming weeks. Against a stout defensive front the identity
of the top backup was immaterial, but now that Gray has been identified
as the likely candidate he has moderate potential as he is larger
than Vereen and built like a more traditional ball carrier. For
the time being expectations should be kept to a minimum, but in
short yardage situations or around the goal line he may steal
touches, or perhaps even a score, from the more established running
back.
This aspect of the Week 8 matchup will be the one which least
favors New England, though not drastically enough that it should
affect the game plan, and the Bears defense ranks 14th against
the run and has allowed five touchdowns so far this season. The
running backs available for the Patriots are either better as
pass catchers or are unproven on the field, so little can be gleaned
from previous games. On the surface the two rushing attacks resemble
each other, where the larger and more physical ball carrier is
the backup, limited to just a few carries a game, and the starter
is slighter but his versatility creates opportunities in the passing
game. From a strict rushing perspective, unless Gray is utilized
heavily and the Patriots passing game is neglected, Chicago should
have little concern about the rushing attack until the offense
approaches the redzone. The greatest potential for failure by
the Bears defense is if Brady utilizes a no huddle offense to
exploit a personnel mismatch, and in that event the ultimate dagger
is likely to come through the air anyway.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 275 pass yds, 3 TDs
Shane Vereen: 50 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jonas Gray: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 45 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Patriots 31, Bears
27 ^ Top
Bills at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Thanks to
some last second heroics, QB Kyle Orton now has two game-winning
drives in just three starts this season. He has thrown for at
least 280 yards in each of those three games, and despite throwing
a pick in each contest he has scored one or more touchdowns in
each as well, bringing his season TD-INT ratio to 5-3. Though
his yardage has slowly decreased since his start in Week 5, his
completion percentage in the most recent game was the highest
it’s been this year at over 72%. The veteran signal caller
has provided a steadying presence to the young team who previously
struggled without a clear on-field leader. Orton has been particularly
influential in the development of rookie WR Sammy Watkins, who
surpassed 31 yards just once in his first four games, but has
broken 85 yards twice with Orton under center. He still shows
the inconsistencies expected from a rookie, but he is much closer
to realizing his potential now than he was previously. Buffalo
is a run-first team but Orton presents enough of a passing threat
to keep the defense honest, because he’s demonstrated the
ability to exploit them when they’re not. Even in obvious
passing situations the veteran has been able to find some success
where without him the Bills were all but hopeless through the
air. After a pair of untimely injuries to running backs in Week
7, Orton and the young receivers may be called upon to carry the
team as the rushing attack gets sorted out and previously untested
players are called into duty.
The strength of the Jets defense is undoubtedly their ability
to stop the run, so looking ahead to Week 8 it was likely that
Buffalo knew there’d be an increased emphasis on the passing
game anyway, so in that respect the loss of their top two running
backs may be somewhat mitigated. Despite facing the who’s
who of NFL quarterbacks during their six game losing streak, they
rank as the 16th best defense against the pass with respect to
yards allowed, giving up only 239 yards per game. On the scoreboard
though they can’t claim any matter of success, as they’ve
surrendered the most touchdowns in the league while also forcing
the fewest number of interceptions. They’ve recorded nearly
three sacks per game through seven contests, but their success
in rushing the passer is overlooked by the near-ineptitude of
the secondary. Losing a starting cornerback from an already-limited
back four certainly has not helped their cause, but even with
CB Dee Milliner on the field the New York secondary may have been
the worst in the league. In a game where the offense is likely
going to be forced into passing situations, the silver lining
to the dark cloud which is the Jets back four is that the receivers
for Buffalo will be the least experienced they’ll defend
all season, and the quarterback will be the least-stellar they’ve
faced since the opening weekend. The key for New York may rest
with the front seven bringing pressure against an offensive line,
which has struggled with protection (19 sacks), hopefully forcing
the quarterback to rush his throws and make poor decisions.
Running Game Thoughts: In the span of about ten minutes the Bills
saw their co-starting running backs go down. Both are expected
to return before the end of the season, with RB Fred Jackson (groin)
likely out for four weeks and RB C.J. Spiller (collarbone) placed
on Injured Reserve with the designation to return, meaning he’ll
be able to rejoin the active roster in Week 16. For the immediate
future, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown will be called upon to resume
their roles. As the larger back Dixon is expected to play the
part of Jackson, while the more versatile Brown is seen as the
direct replacement to Spiller. Though Brown has yet to touch the
ball this season the prevailing opinion is that he’ll be
given the most opportunities because of his abilities in the passing
game and as a shifty runner, while Dixon may see an increased
role in short yardage situations or as a bruising change-of-pace
back. Prior to the injuries Buffalo averaged only 103 rushing
yards per game, but with defenses less intimidated by this duo
than the pair that they are replacing, it is possible that the
Bills actually an increase in rushing production despite being
without their starters for at least the next month.
Barring a mind-boggling defensive oversight, that potential bump
in the ground game is not expected to materialize in Week 8 against
the eighth best rushing defense of New York. On the season they’re
yielding just 88 rushing yards per game and an even better mark
of 3.6 yards per carry. That being said, in two of the last three
games the Jets have allowed 162 and 138 rushing yards, with a
respective per carry average of 4.1 and 4.2 in those contests.
In their most recent game, a blocked field goal away from a divisional
road victory, they surrendered just 63 yards on 15 carries, but
still gave up 4.2 yards per attempt. In all three of those games
their opponent was dealing with injuries in their backfields,
and none were playing with their starting ball carrier. With so
many unknowns related to the Bills running game and the personnel
they will choose to use it is hard to decipher the most likely
scenario for Sunday afternoon, but raging mediocrity feels like
a safe bet. An unproven rushing duo, coupled with an inconsistent
offensive line and an adequate quarterback, square off against
a porous secondary and one of the most fearsome front sevens in
the league. If punters happen to earn fantasy points in whatever
strange scoring system your league uses, start P Colton Schmidt
from Buffalo.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 265 pass yds, 1 TD
Bryce Brown: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds, TD
Anthony Dixon: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 70 rec yds
Robert Woods: 40 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: When a quarterback throws for 226 yards,
completes less than 59% of his passes, and records only one touchdown,
it’s more likely that the box score represents his worst
game of the season rather than his best. In the case of QB Geno
Smith however, the fact that he didn’t throw an interception
makes it the first such game this year, and rather convincingly
makes Week 7 the pinnacle of his 2014 performances this far. As
far as fantasy football is concerned, if Smith could repeat that
performance in each remaining game this season, sustaining his
current maximum usefulness, he would still be comfortably dropped
in every respectable league. Though the quarterback can be ignored,
over 57% of his passes have been completed this season and therefore
someone in a Jets uniform stands to be on the receiving end of
those attempts. To date the primary beneficiary has been WR Eric
Decker, who despite an earlier struggle with a hamstring injury
is the leading receiver on the team, averaging 54 yards per game.
In a surprise trade, WR Percy Harvin was acquired, and the threat
presented by his playmaking abilities should greatly relieve the
pressure which Decker has grown accustomed to seeing as the number
one New York receiver. Used out wide, in the slot, out of the
backfield, sometimes as a decoy, and most notoriously on jet sweeps,
Harvin attracts attention where ever he lines up on the field
because of the multitude of ways which his speed can impact a
game. Cast aside by the reigning Super Bowl champions, Harvin
joins a struggling Jets team with a chip on his shoulder and an
unrelenting desire to prove his nay-sayers wrong.
As long as Smith continues to be under center for New York there
will be at least one fantasy defense worth targeting on the waiver
wire every week, provided they’re available on Tuesday mornings,
and this week that means the Bills are at the top of that streaming-defense
list. The addition of Harvin makes the Jets more dynamic on the
ground, an area where they’re already gifted, but the passing
game will continue to be limited by the second year quarterback
who can’t seem to get out of his own way. Last week Buffalo
faced off against the worst passing offense in the league, and
this week the Jets will present an ever-so-slightly tougher task
as the second worst. The seven touchdowns thrown by Smith are
the second worst in the league; combined with seven interceptions
he has the third worst TD-INT ratio, better than only a pair of
rookies. As a team Buffalo is tied with the third most interceptions
forced, and is approximately average for touchdowns allowed and
yards conceded per game. The strength of the Bills defense is
their front seven, as they have recorded a league-high 24 sacks.
Between the pressure which Buffalo can generate and their ability
to capitalize on quarterback mistakes, the Jets will be tempted
to shelter Smith even more than normal and rely on the rushing
attack to try to keep the game within reach.
Running Game Thoughts: A quarterback’s best friend is a
strong ground game, and thankfully for New York their woeful signal
caller has a quality friend indeed. The Jets have a top five rushing
attack, averaging 135 yards per game on the ground, and have scored
five touchdowns in seven games. During that time their two back
tandem has seen RB Chris Ivory establish himself as the undisputed
starter, and RB Chris Johnson has seen his role decrease to approximately
half of that of the primary ball carrier. More viable as both
a runner and as a receiver, Ivory averages 62 yards per game on
the ground and another 15 coming out of the backfield. He has
scored thrice as a rusher compared to only once for Johnson, though
the latter does have a receiving score from early in the season
whereas Ivory has none. In their Week 7 contest Johnson received
13 carries and turned them into 61 yards, and Ivory took his 21
attempts for 107 yards and a score. As the more physical back
Ivory sees the majority of short yardage and redzone carries,
so his fantasy value is additionally increased over that of Johnson.
While the former 2000-yard back likely can’t be dropped
because of his value as a handcuff, without an injury to Ivory
he has minimal fantasy usefulness unless he’s able to turn
one of his few touches into a race for the endzone like he did
back in Week 4.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills yield a meager 80
yards per game. They’re the third most stout on a per carry
basis and only fractions of a yard away from leading the league,
allowing only 3.2 per attempt. Buffalo is one of only two teams
to not allow a rushing touchdown this season, and the other team
to achieve that feat has played one fewer game, so chances are
neither Johnson nor Ivory are likely to break the plane with the
ball in their hands. In seven contests the Bills have allowed
only one 100-yard rusher, and in the other six games the entire
team didn’t even break triple digits on the ground. The
same front seven which has been terrorizing quarterbacks is also
quite adept at disrupting the offensive line and shutting down
running lanes. For the Bills, only LB Preston Brown has more than
50 tackles, tied for 19th most among individual players, but six
others have 30 or more. This helps demonstrate how balanced the
defense is and further highlights how difficult it is to single
out just one player to game plan against, making them even more
difficult to prepare for during the week.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 25 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 15 rush yds
Eric Decker: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Percy Harvin: 40 rec yds, 35 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Bills 19, Jets 13 ^
Top
Redskins at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Following
the halftime benching of QB Kirk Cousins, Washington became the
second NFL team to record a win while being led by their third
string quarterback. The man of the afternoon was Colt McCoy, who
in Week 8 will earn his first start as a Redskin after two forgettable
years in Cleveland and two more years as a backup on his current
team. There are rumblings that the injured QB Robert Griffin III
(ankle) may be available to return in a limited capacity, but
his history of prematurely returning to the field should be enough
encouragement to hold him out until after their Week 10 bye. Aside
from 30 minutes of play against one of the lesser defenses in
the league, McCoy has next to no useful history with Washington,
seeing the field in the preseason and carrying a clipboard behind
Griffin and Cousins. The fifth year veteran now has an opportunity
to revitalize his career as both of the previous starters are
now in the latter stages of their rookie contacts, so a solid
pair of outings before the bye week could cause a significant
uptick in his value to the franchise. Considering the offensive
weapons that are available, and now all finally healthy at the
same time, McCoy has the ability to have an immediate impact on
the team. Mercurial WR DeSean Jackson has topped 110 yards scored
in all three of the games in which he has gained 40 or more yards
on one reception, and in the other four he has failed to score
or reach 65 yards. By comparison WR Pierre Garcon has been more
consistent, but has fallen victim to the inconsistencies at quarterback;
he averages 56 yards per games and also has three touchdowns.
The two Redskins tight ends have combined for approximately 100
yards in each game they’ve played together, but the division
of those gains has heavily favored TE Jordan Reed in one contest,
heavily favored TE Niles Paul in another, and in the third was
approximately equal. Both present similar matchup issues for opposing
defenses, and as less experienced signal callers tend to favor
their position, it stands to reason that one or both of them could
be in line for a big game.
Standing in the way between McCoy and an encore performance will
be a Dallas defense which surrenders only 230 passing yards per
game and has forced seven interceptions in as many contests. The
Cowboys have held their opponents to below-average totals without
getting consistent pressure on the quarterback, recording only
seven sacks so far this season. By limiting passers to only 7.1
yards per attempt the secondary has largely forced offenses to
throw shorter passes and try to allow their receivers to make
plays after the reception. Considering their six game winning
streak, it’s safe to say the strategy is working. As they
seek seven in a row, Dallas will be faced with a knowledgeable
quarterback who has no recent game experience, so while McCoy
may exhibit some of the same struggles which younger players usually
have, he also has a longer history of film study and a better
comfort with NFL defenses. This combination will undoubtedly lead
to mistakes, but should also present opportunities for the offense
to exploit a defense, which is unable to deliver pressure. Dallas
has enough talent in the secondary to matchup with the impressive
Redskins pass catchers, but if McCoy is given a clean pocket then
it’s only a matter of time until one of them breaks free
and finds the endzone.
Running Game Thoughts: For only the third time all season and
the first time since Week 3, RB Alfred Morris received more than
15 touches in a game, and that was despite suffering a minor ankle
injury which forced him to miss some time. So far this year Washington
is 2-1 in contests where Morris earns more than 15 touches and
they’re 0-4 in games he doesn’t. Used almost exclusively
as a runner, he has just five catches on the season, making him
one of the few ball carriers who doesn’t contribute out
of the backfield with at least some regularity. Morris hasn’t
scored since Week 4 and hasn’t gained 55 or more yards since
that time either, though his totals have increased moderately
over the past two weeks. Averaging less than four yards per carry
for the season, and less than 3.3 yards per attempt in the past
three contests, it will take a volume of touches to get Morris
close to the point where he is once again a viable fantasy running
back. The three weeks in which Morris has received the most carries
were when Cousins replaced Griffin mid-game, in Cousins first
start of the season, and when McCoy replaced Cousins mid-game.
Apparently Washington recognizes the likely struggles of switching
quarterbacks, and as such chooses to focus on the run more heavily
in those games. If that trend continues Morris should once again
expect to see close to 20 touches and look to break 60 yards rushing
for the first time in over a month, salvaging his fantasy usefulness.
Using the major statistical categories the Cowboys run defense
appears approximately average for the NFL, ranking 16th in yards
allowed and tied for tenth in touchdowns surrendered. Upon further
review however they’ve faced the tenth fewest rushing attempts
in the league, and that has helped to cover up their third-worst
ranking on a per touch basis, yielding 4.9 yards per attempt.
The saving grace for the Dallas defense appears to be their own
offense, which controls the clock and forces opponents into situations
which favor the pass more than the run. In their two closest victories
this season, Dallas surrendered over 120 yards in each contest,
including one where a running back scored twice and gained over
155 yards on the ground. Though it hasn’t happened since
week one, the way to beat the Cowboys appears to be through a
strong rushing attack and limiting the number of passes that the
quarterback attempts. This leads to fewer mistakes from the offense,
forces the Cowboys to defend the run as well as the pass, and
ultimately wears down the Dallas defense and in turn leads to
bigger gains. That being said, this sort of Redskins game plan
may be a bit too obvious considering the recent change at quarterback,
but with the receiving weapons they have available Dallas will
have to at least initially respect the pass and that could allow
Washington to establish the run early.
Projections:
Colt McCoy: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 70 rush yds
DeSean Jackson: 60 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Reed: 65 rec yds
Niles Paul: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The most prolific fantasy pass catcher for
Dallas over the past two weeks has been TE Gavin Escobar, with
three touchdowns and 67 receiving yards. Prior to that he’s
collected three total passes for a meager 18 yards, including
recording goose eggs in two separate games. The smart play is
to feel happy for the guy but to politely ignore him as a potential
deep fantasy sleeper. Aside from the receiving equivalent of a
touchdown vulture, the remainder of the Cowboys passing attack
has been business as usual. Star WR Dez Bryant continues to put
up great yardage, but he’s not found the endzone in back
to back weeks after catching a touchdown pass in the previous
four contests. His counterpart WR Terrance Williams tends to be
a less consistent producer but has developed a knack for the endzone,
pulling in six scores so far this season. The tried and true TE
Jason Witten has caught multiple passes in every game this season,
but with so many other mouths to feed through the air his totals
continue to be more modest, averaging less than 40 yards per game.
Leading the offense is QB Tony Romo, who has thrown more touchdowns
than interceptions during each game of the winning streak, giving
him 13 scores and only three picks during that time. Together
the Dallas passing attack ranks in the top half of the league
with 242 yards per game, but by averaging 8.4 yards per attempt
Romo leads one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Combined
with good ball security and stellar pass catchers, the Cowboys
have had one of the most indefensible passing games for the last
six weeks.
If there was a passing defense which was the perfect reflection
of the Cowboys passing attack, Washington may be just that unit.
Just as the offense is efficient with its yardage and has an impressive
ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, the Redskins defense is
stingy when it comes to allowing gains but has been unable to
keep opponents out of the endzone or to force interceptions. Even
their sack totals are misleading, with ten coming in one blowout
victory and only six more coming from the other six contests.
Now that the defense is going to be without LB Brian Orakpo (pectoral)
for the remainder of the season, even more pressure will be placed
on LB Ryan Kerrigan and a front seven which has underwhelmed opponents
for the majority of the season. As would be expected of most losing
teams, the Redskins have faced fewer rushes than almost every
other team who has yet to go on bye, principally because opponents
choose to run the ball when the game is out of hand. Washington
has found ways to lose without giving up many passing yards, and
the Cowboys continue to win without Romo needing to air it out
all day long; both are likely to happen again on Monday night.
Running Game Thoughts: To date the scope of NFL history has been
unable to capture how truly great the first seven games of 2014
have been for RB DeMarco Murray as he’s run behind the best
offensive line in the league. Even with injuries, substitutions,
and replacements all playing their role along the line of scrimmage,
the unit continues to function at an extremely high level and
Murray has been the primary beneficiary of their dominance. As
an individual he has out-gained all but four teams on the ground,
and his seven rushing scores has been surpassed by only one entire
backfield. The primary concern continues to be the volume of carries
he’s being given, with 61 more than the next most attempts,
and if his workload is sustainable for an entire season and into
the playoffs. With six wins from seven games the Cowboys are undoubtedly
eyeing a long run into the postseason, so their focus may soon
switch more toward preservation and protecting their greatest
assets. While Romo and Bryant have the bigger contracts, so far
it has been Murray who has been the most important skill player
for their offensive success. Until game plan or injury intervenes,
the Dallas workhorse is as close to a lock for 100 yards as there
has ever been, and with seven scores in as many contests, it’s
hard to imagine he’s going to be held out of the endzone
anytime soon.
Compared to previous competition, Week 8 will present a familiar
challenge for the Dallas rushing attack. The Redskins will be
the fourth best run defense that they’ve faced this season,
with the three better teams representing two wins and the only
Cowboys loss so far. Where Washington seems ahead of their cohorts
is in yielding touchdowns, where they’ve giving up only
three through seven games and also hold opponents to 103 rushing
yards per contest. Additionally, their mark of 3.8 yards allowed
per carry ranks as the tenth best in the league, and no ball carrier
has broken a run of 30 yards or more against them. In their two
wins the defense surrendered 25 and 76 rushing yards, and in their
three worst defeats they’ve given up at least 115 yards
on the ground; in the remaining two close losses the defense has
held their opponent to fewer than 90 rushing yards. Quite simply
the key to beating the Redskins is establishing the run early
and returning to it often, allowing the offensive line to wear
down the defense and giving the ball carrier running lanes to
exploit. During their six-game winning streak Dallas has done
just that, and they’ll undoubtedly look to do it again on
their way to seven wins.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 225 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 115 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 30 rec yds
Gavin Escobar: 5 rec yds
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Redskins
17 ^ Top
Ravens @ Bengals
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Following
his Week 6 career game, Joe Flacco went back to being Joe Flacco
in Week 7. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; its more
the Flacco is the definition of “average”. Flacco
threw for 258 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions
against a toothless Atlanta Falcons pass defense. Flacco has the
strong arm and some mobility, but isn’t terribly accurate
and will make mistakes that a “franchise” quarterback
shouldn’t be making. Torrey Smith has finally emerged from
his early season slumber and scored his third touchdown in the
last two games. Smith has a reputation as a deep threat, but has
refined his route tree and can be effective on short-range patterns
as well. On the other end of the spectrum the elder Smith, Steve,
has been regressing from his early season torrid pace. That’s
not to say that he hasn’t been productive, as he did manage
3 catches for 67 yards, but he isn’t lighting up the scoreboard
like he did earlier this season. Keep in mind however that he
did torch the Cincinnati defense for 118 yards and a score during
the Week 1 matchup between these two teams.
The Bengals were looking like one the league’s most fearsome
defenses during their 3-0 start to the season, but have been torched
by Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in their two losses sandwiching
a tie in between. On the season they are now allowing 270.3 passing
yards per game with eight touchdowns through the air. During the
first matchup, Flacco did manage to put up 345 yards on this unit,
but that came mostly due to as the Ravens were trailing. Flacco
completed only 35-of-62 attempts.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett has effectively
replaced Ray Rice’s production in the running game after
grabbing the job and keeping it when Bernard Pierce missed time
with a groin injury. The veteran running back, who turned 29 last
week, is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has shown that he can
handle a feature back workload with 37 carries over the last two
games. Pierce did take over at the goaline last week, and his
230-pound frame makes him better suited for short-yardage work
than the sub- 200-pound Forsett. The Ravens are still one of the
few teams that like to keep a balanced offense, and with their
offensive line holding up well should look to come out trying
to establish the run on Sunday against a reeling Bengals defense.
The Bengals are ahead of only Green Bay and Cleveland when it
comes to stopping the run, allowing 146.3 rushing yards per game
while yielding six rushing touchdowns.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Bernard
Pierce: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Justin
Forsett: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yards
Torrey
Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve
Smith: 55 rec yds
Owen
Daniels: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton struggled badly last week in
Indianapolis, and the passing attack is starting to look like
it really misses star wide receiver A.J. Green. As of now Green’s
status is “still up in the air” for this matchup and
he has not been practicing. Dalton threw for only 126 yards with
no touchdowns last week with Green out of the lineup. Dalton’s
success has long been dependant on Green’s athletic ability
and to adjust while the ball is in the air. In his defense, Dalton’s
also missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert leaving him with marginal
talents like Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Tate, Dane Sanzenbacher and
Jermaine Gresham running pass patterns. Dalton has also cut down
on his turnovers, which was a serious problem last season. Running
back Giovani Bernard adds playmaking ability out of the backfield
and will need to be used more should Green’s toe injury
keep him out of yet another game.
The Ravens pass defense has been a “bend but don’t
break” unit this season. They are allowing 258.4 yards per
game but are only giving up 1 passing touchdown per game on average.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals
punted the ball 11 times last week, and couldn’t get anything
going on offense so obviously the running game was limited. Giovani
Bernard saw only seven carries while Jeremy Hill rushed only four
times. Ideally, Bernard will be more involved in the passing game
than he was last week. The Bengals would like to get him out in
space and make plays, especially if the team is once again without
their best offensive player in A.J. Green. Of course, Green being
in the lineup would be far better for the running games as the
team would be able to sustain drives while moving the ball. Hill
has had an up and down rookie season thus far, but at least the
“downs” have been as a result of games where he did
not see heavy usage such as last week. On the season he’s
averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per carry and has scored three
touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson stated all offseason
that the Bengals would be a run based offense and so far they
have managed to keep their offense fairly balanced with 198 pass
attempts and 163 rushes. Ideally they’d have those numbers
creep even closer together if their defense finds its way back
to the level it was on early in the season.
The Ravens’ run defense has been very strong, so the Bengals
may find it tough to establish any kind of running game this Sunday.
The unit is allowing a meager 87.4 rushing yards per game with
only 3 rushing touchdowns surrendered in seven games.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 285 pass yds 2 TDs, 1 INT., 5 rush yds
Jeremy
Hill: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Giovani
Bernard: 55 rush yds, 55 rec yds
Brandon
Tate: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed
Sanu: 80 rec yds
Jermaine
Gresham: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 20
^ Top
Raiders at Browns
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: For the second
week in a row, the Browns will be facing a rookie quarterback
trying to lead his team to its first win in 2014. This week it
will be Derek Carr and the Raiders coming into town. Carr is coming
off a game where he and the Raiders couldn’t get anything
going at home against Arizona, but he did manage 283 yards and
4 touchdowns with 1 interception the week before against the Chargers.
As expected, the second-round rookie has been inconsistent but
has shown good pocket awareness and good arm strength in his six
starts. On the season he is completing 60% of his passes for 1,189
yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, which isn’t
bad when you consider he isn’t blessed with a great supporting
cast. Veteran James Jones is the de facto WR1 for the team, and
is stretched in that role. Third-year wide receiver Andre Holmes
has breathed some life into the passing game, since injuries mandated
his insertion into the starting lineup. He has 12 catches for
229 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last three games. The Raiders
could use a serious upgrade at the tight end position if they
want Carr to take the next step in his development.
The Browns already had one of the top cornerbacks in the league
in Joe Haden, but traded back to No.8 and chose Justin Gilbert
in the first round of this year’s draft. Gilbert has struggled
so far, but has the talent to make life miserable for passing
games facing the Browns as he learns on the job. So far his struggles
haven’t hurt the unit that much, but the Browns have only
been a league average pass defense when many expected much more.
The team is allowing 241.7 passing yards per game with 9 touchdowns
allowed and 7 interceptions on the season. It will be interesting
to see if Haden shadows “No. 1” WR James Jones or
the more productive Andre Holmes.
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders signed veteran Maurice Jones-Drew
this offseason and he has looked washed up thus far. MJD is averaging
a meager 2.7 yards per carry and has taken a backseat to incumbent
Darren McFadden. McFadden hasn’t been all that explosive
himself, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry, but has been productive
at times. It seems inevitable that the team will turn to second
year back Latavius Murray at some point, but so far the team is
not inclined to do so, as Murray has been limited to four carries
on the season. The Raiders offensive line was rebuilt this offseason,
and the running game should be working much better than it has…
so something needs to change.
Cleveland looked to have a very strong front-seven after adding
former Arizona Cardinal stand out run stopper Carlos Dansby to
the mix this offseason, but thus far have been the worst run defense
in the league. The Browns are giving up 155.5 yards per game and
7 scores on the ground. With a rookie quarterback and an improved
line, the Raiders should be looking to exploit the Browns weakness
inside the Dog Pound.
Projections:
Derek
Carr: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs., 10 rush yds
Darren
McFadden: 75 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Maurice
Jones-Drew: 35 rush yds
Andre
Holmes: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
James
Jones: 40 rec yds
Denarius
Moore: 25 rec yds
Mychal
Rivera: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer was on the cusp of folk hero
status in Cleveland after leading the team to come from behind
wins over New Orleans and Tennessee and then stomping the hated
division rival Steelers, but he crashed hard last week. Hoyer
completed only 39% of his passes and threw an interception while
failing to throw a touchdown against what was a terrible Jacksonville
defense. Browns’ fans were dreaming of a 6-2 start to the
season after seeing Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay as their
next three matchups while holding a 3-2 record. Hoyer will need
to win the next two games in order to hold off the “Johnny
Football” chants from the home crowd. Hoyer has somewhat
limited arm strength, but is a fiery leader and the smarts to
overcome his limitations. He will need his supporting cast to
do a better job, particularly tight end Jordan Cameron, who has
disappointed for most of this season while recovering from ankle
and shoulder injuries. Last week had more to do with Hoyer than
Cameron as the athletic tight end was open in the end-zone but
Hoyer missed badly on the pass. Until Josh Gordon returns in Week
12 the receiving corps will remain solid, at best. There just
aren’t any playmakers in the group that can help raise the
game of a journeyman quarterback.
People may be surprised to see, the Raiders pass defense sitting
just outside the top 10 rankings, but there they sit as the eleventh-ranked
pass defense in the league. The team is allowing 229.5 yards per
game with 11 touchdowns but only 3 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Ben Tate has been solid since returning
from a knee injury but last week, like the whole Cleveland offense,
he struggled to get anything going. The team lost center Alex
Mack, and the offensive line regressed as a result. Mack is an
all-pro talent and the leader of the line and will be missed.
Tate is a hard-nosed runner that doesn’t have much wiggle
but has shown good vision and burst and doesn’t leave many
yards on the field. He’s a perfect fit for the Browns zone-blocking
scheme. Terrence West was a healthy inactive in Week 6 and was
benched in Week 7 after failing to take what the defense gave
him. That should once again open the door for fellow rookie Isaiah
Crowell to get back in the driver’s seat for the carries
behind Tate.
What isn’t surprising is how bad Oakland has been against
the run. The team is allowing 145.3 yards per game with 6 rushing
touchdowns being scored in their six games thus far.
Projections:
Brian
Hoyer: 205 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben
Tate: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Isaiah
Crowell: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Miles
Austin: 45 rec yds
Andrew
Hawkins: 30 rec yds
Jordan
Cameron: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Browns 24, Raiders 17
^ Top
Colts at Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: The juxtaposition
of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andrew Luck, the quarterbacks the Steelers
will face in consecutive weeks is like having a baloney sandwich
for lunch and a fine steak dinner that night. Luck has emerged
as one of the game’s best quarterbacks in just his third
NFL season. Luck has piled up incredible statistics (2331 passing
yards with 19 touchdowns) while also exhibiting the leadership
skills and game knowledge that Colts‘ fans became accustomed
to during the Peyton Manning era. Unlike Manning, however Andrew
Luck also has tremendous athleticism and can beat opposing teams
with his legs. Luck has 98 yards rushing and another 2 touchdowns
on the ground, after scoring 9 rushing touchdowns over his first
two seasons. The truly scary part about Luck’s development
is that he’s doing it with a good but not great supporting
cast. The Colts most dangerous receiver is third-year pro TY Hilton.
Hilton is only 5’9” and 178 pounds but has lightning
speed and is an effective playmaker all over the field. Outside
of Hilton, Luck’s targets are average to below average,
with tight end Dwayne Allen being the only one on the verge of
moving into above average territory. Reggie Wayne is 35 and coming
off a major injury, Colby Fleener has been an underachiever and
Hakeem Nicks is far removed from any semblance of his early years
as a star with the Giants. Wayne suffered an elbow injury last
week and could sit this game out, which would leave Nicks and
rookie Donte Moncrief with more prominent roles.
The Steelers defense has managed to be effective against the pass,
allowing 230.9 yards per game with 10 touchdowns through seven
games. However, it should be noted that the team has faced Brian
Hoyer (x2), Joe Flacco, Mike Glennon, Blake Bortles and Ryan Fitzpatrick,
so as they say, the stats sometimes lie. Truth be told, the Steelers
secondary lacks talent. Andrew Luck should easily pick this unit
apart.
Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson is still a disappointment
to those that thought he could become the next Adrian Peterson,
but he has at least looked better in 2014 than he did last season
after getting traded to the Colts. While “better”
is always a relative term, when talking about a back that averaged
3.0 per carry, the relativity is taken to another level. Richardson
looks lumbering at times, especially when attempting to change
directions and has exhibited poor vision, but is a powerful back
once he gets up to speed. Last season he was outplayed by Donald
Brown and this season Ahmad Bradshaw has clearly been the better
back each week. Bradshaw is averaging 4.8 yards per carry as compared
to Richardson’s 3.5, and has added 7 touchdowns this season,
including 6 on receptions. Bradshaw has played through injuries
during most of his career and coming off a serious neck injury
and with his chronic foot issues, it’s remarkable what he’s
been able to accomplish. Richardson suffered a pulled hamstring
and has not been practicing this week. The pull is considered
minor, but if he can’t go, Bradshaw could be looking at
his biggest workload yet.
The Steelers are only allowing 114.1 yards per game on the ground,
despite losing promising rookie Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones
for multiple weeks to injury. Last week Arian Foster mostly had
his way, especially in the first half, so perhaps the lack of
depth is starting to catch up with this team. Nevertheless, the
Colts are slowly moving away from trying to be a power ground
based attack after finally realizing where their bread is buttered.
Projections:
Andrew
Luck: 335 pass yds, 3 TDs, 35 rush yds
Ahmad
Bradshaw: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent
Richardson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
T.Y.
Hilton: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem
Nicks: 40 rec yds
Dwayne
Allen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby
Fleener: 45 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger bounced back in Week
7 from a poor performance against Cleveland and the Pittsburgh
offense was finally effective in the redzone on Monday Night.
Offensive coordinator Todd Haley displayed some trickery when
receiver Antonio Brown broke off of his end around run to throw
a touchdown pass to Lance Moore from inside the ten yard line.
Disappointing second year receiver Markus Wheaton is still trying
to find chemistry with Big Ben, and lost snaps last week to rookie
Martavis Bryant. The rookie has intriguing size that the Steelers
have lacked at the position for years and was able to beat corner
back Andre Hal on a nice move to catch a 35-yard touchdown in
the back of the end zone. He likely earned a bigger role going
forward. The Steelers desperately need another player to step
up and support star Antonio Brown in the passing game.
Indianapolis is sporting a top-5 pass defense, allowing only 214.4
passing yards per game and 8 touchdowns through the air. With
21 sacks on the season, the Colts have a chance of making life
miserable for Roethlisberger behind and improving but still below
average offensive line. The Colts have been doing it without a
dominant single pass rusher with Robert Mathis out for the year,
but have been getting contributions from multiple players like
Bjoern Werner (4), D’Qwell Jackson (3), Eric Walden (3)
and Cory Redding (3).
Running Game Thoughts: Last week I called Le’Veon Bell the
best running back in the league this season behind the Cowboys’
DeMarco Murray, and both running backs did nothing to change my
mind in Week 7. Bell finally found the endzone again for the first
time since Week 1, this time grabbing a pass when he was left
wide open at the right pylon after moving out wide pre-snap. Bell
lost 20 pounds over the offseason, maintaining his power and quick
feet, but adding more agility and straight-line speed into the
mix. Bell is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and also excels in
the passing game with 36 receptions for 339 yards on the season.
LeGarrette Blount has been worked into the mix to spell Bell at
times but his usage has been becoming less frequent in recent
weeks, as the team has struggled whenever Bell is on the sidelines.
The Colts also feature a top-10 run defense allowing 96.7 yards
per game but have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. 20 rush yds
Le’Veon
Bell: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
LeGarrette
Blount: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Antonio
Brown: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Martavis
Bryant: 60 rec yds
Markus
Wheaton: 25 rec yds
Heath
Miller: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 34, Steelers
24 ^ Top
Rams @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: A matchup
against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks secondary made most fantasy
owners worried about Austin Davis’ fantasy outlook in Week
7, but the young signal caller stepped up in a big way by throwing
for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t spectacular
for fantasy purposes, but perhaps the most important thing for
fantasy owners and the Rams alike is that he was able to avoid
turning the ball over. That helped keep the Rams in the game and
eventually led to a surprise upset win over the defending Super
Bowl Champions. Of course, as has been an ongoing story over the
past two seasons, no St. Louis receiver surpassed even the 50-yard
mark in the victory. In fact, it was backup tight end Lance Kendricks
and backup running back Benny Cunningham who made the two touchdown
receptions. Only Brian Quick has been any bit of consistent coming
out of this passing game, but even Quick has fallen off over the
past two weeks, making just three total catches in that span.
While he does still have some value as a WR3, Quick should probably
be on most fantasy benches this week as he and the Rams go up
against a Kansas City defense that hasn’t allowed an opposing
team to pass for over 270 yards yet this season. While the Chiefs
have conceded at least one passing touchdown in every game, this
isn’t a particularly exciting matchup and Davis should probably
be on most benches.
Running Game Thoughts: The running back situation in St. Louis
has been a revolving door since Jeff Fisher took over as the head
coach, but it appears as if there might finally be some stability
coming to the position. Rookie running back Tre Mason has broken
out as the clear top ball carrier in the offense after having
essentially been irrelevant through the majority of the season
prior to Week 7. The lack of success on the ground from either
Zac Stacy or Cunningham has meant that the team went to Mason
earlier than they likely wanted to, but the experiment appears
to be paying off. At least it is so far. Mason rushed for 85 yards
on 18 carries last week, including a touchdown. While Cunningham
is still getting quite a bit of work on third down which does
limit Mason’s upside particularly in the passing game, Stacy
has now essentially become a complete non-factor from a fantasy
standpoint. Stacy saw just one snap in Week 7 and there is little
reason to believe that it will change any time in the near future.
Mason and the Rams will have a tough time producing big fantasy
numbers against this Kansas City defense, however, as they are
one of only two defensive units in the league that has not yet
allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Mason is an interesting
fantasy situation to watch, but given the sudden changes that
the St. Louis backfield has had over the past couple of weeks
and the less-than-inspiring matchup, he should probably be on
most fantasy benches this week.
Projections:
Austin Davis: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 65 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 25 rec yds, 25 rec yds
Brian Quick: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a huge, marquee win for Kansas City
this past week when Alex Smith and the Chiefs marched into San
Diego and took down their division rival and one of the hottest
teams in the league. As has been the case of most of his career,
Smith did not have too much of the load put on his shoulders in
that contest and his fantasy production was only acceptable. Smith’s
passing numbers have never been spectacular and it’s unlikely
that they ever will be, but the fact that he has only thrown one
interception over the course of his past five games has made him
a decent low-end fantasy starter in most games. The one disappointing
thing is that after rushing for a career high of 431 yards in
2013, he is not on that pace this season. The other unfortunate
part of Smith’s playing style has been that there really
isn’t’ a reliable fantasy receiver in the Chiefs offense.
The closest thing, perhaps, has been tight end Travis Kelce who
has enjoyed a bit of a breakout to start the season. Kelce caught
a touchdown in three straight games earlier in the year. Unfortunately
he has not even been on the field for 50 percent of the team’s
offensive snaps as he is primarily a receiving option and doesn’t
yet have the consistent blocking pedigree to be an every down
tight end.
On the bright side, Smith and the Kansas City passing game does
have a great opportunity this week as they host the Rams and their
30th-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. They’ve
conceded massive games to both Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick
in back-to-back games, which should leave Smith with an opportunity
to have a great game of his own.
Running Game Thoughts: Since missing essentially two full games
earlier this season, Jamaal Charles has returned and pretty much
been his usual studly self. He has nearly 300 yards of offense
over his past three games while scoring two touchdowns. It’s
worth noting that he hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in any
game yet this year and he hasn’t been quite as involved
in the passing game as he was during his massive 2013 season,
but Charles is still producing as a rock solid RB1. His success
and steady production has meant that Knile Davis, who produced
big numbers while Charles was out, has barely seen the field.
Unfortunately, Charles will have a tough task in this game, as
hell be up against a St. Louis defense that allowed the fifth-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs on the year.
While they haven’t yet played Charles, the Rams have gone
up against some of the league’s best runners in DeMarco
Murray, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch. It’d be ridiculous
to bench a player like Charles, but this matchup doesn’t
scream huge numbers, even for a player of his caliber.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Rams 17
^ Top
Eagles @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Through the
first three weeks of the season, it appeared as if Philadelphia’s
Nick Foles was well on his way to having another amazing season.
He set records for his 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio
in 2013 and came out with three straight 300-yard games to start
the year in 2014. Then came a disastrous Week 4 performance on
the road against the San Francisco 49ers when Foles threw for
just 195 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions. Including
and since that contest, Foles has averaged just 217 passing yards
per game while throwing just four touchdowns with five interceptions.
It appears as if he’s in a bit of a funk from a production
standpoint and the team’s Week 7 bye really could not have
come at a better time as he and the Eagles will be traveling across
the country to play against the Arizona Cardinals. This game could
potentially have playoff implications later in the season, so
the Eagles will need Foles to perform up to expectations.
It’ll be interesting to see how he does as he goes up against
an Arizona Cardinals defense that held rookie Derek Carr and the
Raiders passing game out of the end zone in Week 7, but had conceded
a total of six touchdown passes and 833 total yards passing over
the course of their previous two games against the Broncos and
Redskins. There are holes to be found against this defense and
one of the players who might be in line for a nice day is tight
end Zach Ertz. The Cardinals currently rank 25th in the league
in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends and
that’s actually a huge step up from 2013 when they were
one of the worst defenses in NFL history against that position.
Running Game Thoughts: After being taken No. 1 overall in a high
percentage of fantasy drafts this off-season, LeSean McCoy has
taken quite a bit of heat from fantasy owners for his lack of
production in the early part of the season. While he started off
with two low-double-digit games (standard scoring), McCoy nearly
dropped off the face of the planet from Weeks 3 through 5, rushing
for just 120 total yards and failing to score a single touchdown.
Worse yet, McCoy’s production in the receiving game was
nonexistent as he caught just five passes for a total of five
yards during those weeks. While his production in the passing
game didn’t really improve and he still didn’t get
into the end zone, McCoy owners had to be a bit encouraged by
what he did the last time he was on the field as he rushed for
149 yards on 22 carries.
It’ll be back to the grind this week, though, as McCoy
will be running against an Arizona Cardinals defense that has
allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs
on the year. The Cardinals haven’t exactly gone up against
a who’s who of extraordinary running back talents, but it’s
still a bit concerning for McCoy owners that they have been so
good at shutting down the run, conceding just an average of just
58 rushing yards per game. It’s true that the Philadelphia
offense has lost some of the explosion it had in 2013 and perhaps
McCoy will not regain his status as one of the league’s
top scoring options at the running back position, but he’s
still worth a start even in a tough matchup. You just never know
when a player of this talent level is going to break out and win
you a fantasy game. The Eagles have had an entire week off to
get healthy and fix the problems on their offense. Look for them
to get McCoy involved early and often in this one.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jeremy Maclin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 50 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: He missed three weeks early in the year,
but it’s almost as if quarterback Carson Palmer did not
missed a beat in returning to the Arizona lineup back in Week
6. Since that point, Palmer has thrown for over 500 yards and
four touchdowns with only one interception, leading the way for
back-to-back Cardinals wins. Perhaps more importantly than Palmer’s
success, however, has been the resurgence of his top two targets,
Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, who have been the recipients
of three of those scores. Fitzgerald’s impressive Week 6
performance where he made six catches for 98 yards and a score
were a bit overshadowed by the lack of production he gave fantasy
owners in Week 7, as he caught just two passes for 21 yards. Still,
the big game in Week 6 has to be a bit inspiring from a fantasy
standpoint given that he has not had that kind of a game in quite
some time. Meanwhile, Floyd continues to be one of the NFL’s
breakout players this season as he has now caught touchdowns in
back-to-back contests. While Floyd did have two highly disappointing
performances earlier in the year, they both came in games without
Carson Palmer behind center and he has been in double digits in
each of the three games he has played with Palmer so far in 2014.
The Cardinals passing game appears to be clicking and should
have an opportunity to put up nice numbers in this game as they
go up against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has been atrocious
at stopping opposing passing games so far this season. Philadelphia
conceded 13 passing touchdowns including multiple passing scores
in every contest through their first five games of the season
before finally locking down Eli Manning and the Giants in a blowout
victory back in Week 6. While the Eagles seem to be rushing the
passer better now and Arizona’s offensive line still leaves
much to be desired, it would be shocking if they were able to
do to Palmer and the Cardinals what they did to Manning and the
Giants. Look for another nice day out of Floyd and a solid performance
from Palmer, but Fitzgerald still appears to be a major wildcard
and his production could vary greatly depending on how the game
pans out.
Running Game Thoughts: The Arizona offense as a whole has been
very up and down this season, but one player who has filled in
nicely for the team whenever they need him is running back Andre
Ellington. Ellington, who was predicted by many to be one of the
breakout performers of 2014, has only scored two touchdowns through
his first six games this season, but has still provided his team
and fantasy owners with a steady stream of fantasy production.
Ellington is one of only three backs (DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon
Bell) who has at least 75 yards of total offense in every game
he has played so far this season. His production in the passing
game is matched by very few as well, as is currently on pace for
67 receptions for nearly 700 yards. If he keeps up this pace,
Ellington will surpass 1,700 yards and immediately become part
of the discussion as a potential first round fantasy draft pick
in 2015. In Week 8, he’ll be up against a Philadelphia Eagles
defense that has conceded an average of 17.8 fantasy points per
game (standard scoring) to the running back position and could
be in trouble when it comes to trying to stop the shifty young
back from catching passes out of the backfield. With Palmer back
behind center, stretching the defense with effective downfield
passing, Ellington has seen the running lanes open up for him
in recent weeks and should be in line for a nice game, particularly
in PPR formats.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 250 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Andre Ellington: 65 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Eagles
24 ^ Top
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