Jets at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Now one-third
of the way through the season QB Geno Smith has finally completed
a game where he threw more touchdowns than interceptions. In Week
6 the Jets actually led at the end of the first quarter and in
the closing frame had an opportunity for a game-tying drive, but
as if on cue Smith threw a game-clinching interception which was
returned for a touchdown. Though on the field he may be showing
improvement, in the box scores he’s looked as lost as ever.
At least this week he wasn’t benched at halftime. Even after
a better-than-normal performance Smith averages under 180 passing
yards per game and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns,
making New York one of three teams to earn that dubious distinction.
Adding to their woes, G Brian Winters (knee) went down last week
and has been placed on Injured Reserve, ending his season. On
a positive note WR Eric Decker seems to have fully recovered from
his hamstring injury, which had bothered him for most of the season.
He turned in his biggest game of 2014 this past week with six
receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown. Along with that rookie
TE Jace Amaro broke out in Week 6, catching 10 passes for 68 yards
and a score, the first of his young career. It is no coincidence
that Smith having his two top receivers healthy at the same time
led to his most significant game of the year and a better on-field
product, even if the end result was ultimately the same and the
Jets losing streak slid to five.
There’s never a bad time for a rookie to have a big game,
but Amaro may have chosen the least opportune Sunday to show up
on the defensive radar as New England is coming out of Week 6
after giving up over 100 yards to a tight end from another division
opponent. The defense also yielded 70 yards and a touchdown to
two different receivers. In all, three pass catchers made at least
five receptions and gained 70 or more yards, though to their credit
New England held the team’s star receiver to 27 yards on
a pair of receptions. With CB Brandon Browner still waiting to
make his season debut and CB Aquib Talib usually locking on to
an opponent’s top pass catcher, the Patriots have a tandem
capable of shutting down most receivers in the league once they
can get on the field at the same time. The matchup to watch, however,
will occur along the line of scrimmage, where the Jets offensive
line has surrendered 15 sacks in six games, the same number as
New England has recorded on defense. With pressure on the quarterback
and receivers locked down in coverage, the Patriots have earned
their top-five passing defensive ranking just as New York has
earned their bottom-ranked passing attack.
Running Game Thoughts: Production on the ground has decreased
precipitously during the past few weeks, from averaging over 150
yards in the first four games to the Jets gaining 91 and then
31 in the two most recent contests. The only semblance of consistency
has been that RB Chris Ivory earns more carries than anyone else
out of the backfield. Beyond that New York is struggling mightily
in the rushing attack, further increasing the pressure on Smith
and his mistake-prone arm. As in the passing game, losing Walters
from the offensive line creates problems on the ground as well.
At the risk of being proven wrong by unimaginable ineptitude,
it’s hard to foresee the Jets being any worse in the running
game than they were last week in a game that was surprisingly
close until a late turnover sealed the outcome. In Week 6 New
York ran the ball only 15 times, gained just 2.1 yards per rush
and not surprisingly lost the battle of time possession. For an
offense that should aim to try to protect its quarterback and
distribute responsibilities among several different players, attempting
fewer than 25 rushes is inexcusable and is perhaps the largest
contributor to the recent dearth of productivity in the ground
game.
Though his absence will certainly affect the New England defense,
LB Jerod Mayo (knee) moving to the season-ending Injured Reserve
may not be enough to allow the Jets to see any additional success
on rushing plays. The physical and emotional leader of the defense
went down last Sunday and the expected bad news related to his
injury status served as motivation for the team to pull out a
victory in a game that was never out of reach until late. Facing
another divisional opponent should fire up the defense for its
Thursday night matchup, though Mayo will be undoubtedly missed
on the field. During the same two weeks during which the Jets
have struggled to run the ball, New England has proven to be adept
at limiting its opponent on the ground. On the season they’ve
allowed 111 yards per game, but in the two most recent contests
they gave up fewer than 80 yards in each and did not surrender
a carry of longer than 13 yards. If they can once again eliminate
big plays and force the offense to focus on the run in order to
gain appreciable yardage, New York may be stuck choosing between
a sputtering rushing attack, an overwhelming desire for their
quarterback to have less direct impact on the outcome of the game.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Chris Ivory: 40 rush yds
Chris Johnson: 15 rush yds
Eric Decker: 35 rec yds
Jeremy Kerley: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Jace Amaro: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The injury report out of New England has
a history of being too forthcoming, and though perhaps honest
it is usually overly inclusive and thus potentially misleading.
Last Friday, however, QB Tom Brady rolled his ankle in practice
and was forced into Week 6 knowing he’d have to cope with
the injury throughout the contest. He responded with four touchdown
passes and no interceptions while throwing for 361 through the
air, making it unquestionably his best game of the season thus
far. On short rest there is always a concern that minor injuries
become more significant, but everything indicates that Brady will
be ready to go for Thursday. New England may be finding its stride
after being thoroughly embarrassed two weeks ago. Now with WR
Brandon LaFell contributing consistently alongside slot man Julian
Edelman and TE Rob Gronkowski getting ever closer to full health,
the Patriots appear to have a functioning passing attack where
previously there were considerable question marks. The principle
improvement has been along the offensive line, and after several
periods of trial and error it seems the correct combination has
been discovered, giving Brady the time and protection he needs
to successfully lead the offense.
The Jets secondary is last in the league in two major pass defense
categories, where they have allowed the most touchdowns and no
team has forced fewer interceptions. As if that weren’t
enough reason for worry, top CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) will now
be on Injured Reserve for the remainder of the season, leaving
a poor pass defense without its best individual defender. A metaphor
about Swiss cheese comes to mind when thinking about how the secondary
will perform without Milliner. The one hope New York has for preventing
an air raid is its pass rushers pressuring the quarterback and
building on its 19 sack total, second-best in the league. History
may also be on the side of the Jets defense in that the matchup
between these Thursday night teams usually seems to result in
a close game; in 2013 the home team won by three points in both
contests.
Running Game Thoughts: Shortly after New England last its defensive
leader, the team’s top RB Stevan Ridley (knee) went down
and he too is now done for the year. His injury comes at a particularly
inopportune time as he will be a free agent at the end of this
season and his inability to stay on the field may ultimately lead
to his departure from the team. In the immediate future there
are three reasonable possibilities as to how to distribute the
backfield workload. Current backup RB Shane Vereen may see a promotion
and be given the majority of carries, with other players filling
in as needed to relieve the new starter. There have been rumblings
that RB Brandon Bolden may leapfrog Vereen on the depth chart
and step into the role vacated by Ridley, leaving Vereen in a
similar position to where he is now. Lastly those two may be joined
by RB James White in a committee of ball carriers, with each negatively
impacting the fantasy upsides of the other so long as they’re
all sharing touches. For the meantime the division of labor is
all but irrelevant considering the defense they’ll be facing
this week. In the redzone Bolden likely has the greatest value
as he is the larger and more physical back, giving him the chance
to vulture a touchdown from whoever the primary back may be at
the time.
Even with Ridley the Patriots don’t rank in the top half
of NFL rushing teams. Without him now, New England must face a
top-10 defense that has allowed only two ground scores in six
weeks. The strength of the Jets defense is its front seven. The
three down linemen are perhaps the best trio in the league. Despite
having only one victory this season they average just 92 rushing
yards against per game and 3.5 per carry. Thanks in large part
to the ineffective offense and opponents who run the ball to try
to milk to clock, the New York defense is just outside the top
10 for rushing attempts faced and yet they are in the bottom 10
for yards allowed. During the last two weeks where the offense
has been particularly useless the defense has allowed a 100-yard
rusher in each contest. The best indication for a successful day
against the run may have little to do with their opponent and
very much to do with the guys wearing the same jersey but lining
up on the other side of the ball.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 pass yds, 3 TDs
Shane Vereen: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Brandon Bolden: 20 rush yds
Julian Edelman: 80 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 13 ^ Top
Titans at Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Using a statistically
irresponsible sample size, the home team in this series has lost
every game played for the entire history of the matchup. Considering
how the Titans relocated in 1997, are in a different conference
than Washington, and eight years pass before they play each other
in the same venue again, the 2-0 road record against the Redskins
is far less impressive. Sunday afternoon Tennessee will seek to
extend their streak at FedEx Field, riding the wave of momentum
that follows from beating a winless Jacksonville team in Week
6. The Titans quarterback situation remains uncertain, with Jake
Locker (thumb) fighting to get back onto the field, with Charlie
Whitehurst picking up the win last week and maintaining the better
stat lines so far this season. In only the deepest fantasy leagues
should this matter, but as Locker has yet to fully participate
in practice it looks like Whitehurst is the more likely starter
against Washington. In three games he has averaged 187 passing
yards per game and thrown for three touchdowns compared to just
one interception. During a similar span Locker has four scores
and four picks with a slightly lesser passing average. Coming
into Week 7 there are four pass catchers who have seen more than
25 targets and average more than 25 yards per game, though the
most prolific receiver has been TE Delanie Walker, averaging 70
yards per game and catching three total touchdowns, though only
one of which came from Whitehurst. The backup quarterback’s
favorite target is hard to determine, as none are consistent enough
to demand increased attention from neither the offense nor the
opposing defense.
These two teams have one common opponent at this point in the
season and they both won that contest a league bottom-dweller,
showing that if nothing else each is at least one tiny step above
being the worst in the NFL. This may be a small victory, but sitting
at 1-5 Washington will take any victory they can get. One of the
main reasons for their drought is their inability to force turnovers,
especially in the passing game where they have surrendered 13
touchdowns and recorded just two interceptions. Their sack totals
are misleading, considering that two-thirds of them came from
their lone victory, meaning that the remaining five were earned
over the span of five games. Through six games Washington has
faced only one team who ranks in the top 20 for passing yards
and yet still yields 228 yards per game. That total is slightly
better than the league midpoint, but when teams don’t have
to worry about throwing an interception they can be more conservative
with their aerial attack, getting the most out of every opportunity
rather than gaining yards on wasted trips. The contest with Tennessee
brings another lowly passing game to town, setting the stage for
a tight matchup as two weak units faceoff.
Running Game Thoughts: While a first round flame out and perennial
backup battle for the starting role under center, the Tennessee
rushing attack is hovering just to the positive side of mediocrity,
ranking 14th in rushing yards per game and tied for the same in
touchdowns on the ground. With starting running back Shonn Greene
(hamstring) inactive last week, rookie Bishop Sankey was finally
given an opportunity to show what he can do as a primary ball
carrier, though it was largely disappointing. He earned 61 yards
on 18 carries but did receive the vast majority of touches while
averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt. Greene is expected to be
out again this week, giving Sankey another chance to impress and
possibly to steal the starting role away from his backfield counterpart.
On the season, primarily as the change-of-pace back, Sankey has
averaged 4.2 yards per carry while the team has earned better
than that, so there is reason to be optimistic going into Week
7. In fantasy leagues Sankey was over-drafted on the basis of
his potential, so when his actual performances didn’t match
up he was then dropped in many leagues as well. After the injury
to Greene his value obviously increased, but if he’s still
available his upside is currently too high to forego. Sankey will
have one more unimpeded opportunity to contribute, potentially
laying the groundwork for him to receive a large portion of the
carries in the future.
Of the four primary areas for a team, offense and defense for
both the run and the pass, the Washington run defense may be the
least responsible for the staggering futility demonstrated by
the Redskins through six games. Though facing 32 fewer rushing
attempts than passes, the defense has recorded as many turnovers
from ball carrier fumbles as they have from interceptions. The
yardage surrendered per game ranks in the top 12, and the Redskins
are one of only ten teams to allow fewer than four yards per rushing
attempt. Last week Washington defended against the run 17 times
and allowed only 72 yards, but in the week before they have up
the exact same number of yards and touches to one running back
while the rest of the team added another 19 for 153 yards. Against
weak opponents the Redskins have been able to stifle the rushing
attack, but against anyone who has been at least average they’ve
given up productive games to most primary ball carriers. As Tennessee
is at least average against the run, if not better, Sankey could
be in line for a reasonable day in Week 7, and the longer the
game stays close the more opportunities he’ll be given to
have a positive impact.
Projections:
Charlie Whitehurst: 180 pass yds, 1 TD
Bishop Sankey: 75 rush yds, 1 TD
Justin Hunter: 50 rec yds
Kendall Wright: 35 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The wheels haven’t quite fallen off
the bandwagon for quarterback Kirk Cousins but it’s safe
to say the ride isn’t nearly as smooth as it was after his
first two starts. Called into duty in Week 2, Cousins threw for
two scores in a blowout victory, then for three in the next game
though he did throw a costly interception, which led to a defeat
for Washington. The following three weeks he combined for five
touchdowns and seven interceptions and the team has lost by double
digits in each contest. Estimates Robert Griffin III returning
from injury in Week 11 after the Redskins bye, so Cousins has
three more weeks to prove himself and try to earn the starting
role even when Griffin returns. Between an injury-prone playmaker
and a mistake-prone pocket passer, Washington has its hands full
as both quarterbacks are fast approaching the last year of their
rookie contracts. For at least the next three weeks Cousins has
an impressive collection of pass catchers to throw to, including
wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon who each scored
last week and tight end Jordan Reed who returned from injury in
a big way, gaining 92 yards from a team-high eight receptions.
The receiving contributions and 354 passing yards from Cousins
were in vain however as the quarterback also threw three interceptions,
including another game-clinching pick which was returned for a
defensive touchdown. Regardless of how Cousins performs, Jackson
and Garcon remain viable fantasy plays and TE Niles Paul is likely
no longer relevant as long as Reed remains healthy.
Roughly two-thirds of the positive plays made by Tennessee against
the pass have come in their two victories, where they recorded
10 sacks and four interceptions while allowing just two touchdowns.
In four losing efforts the Titans have only five sacks and three
interceptions while conceding nine scores. Their record suggests
they’re better than some but behind most, so victimizing
weak teams and being dominated by good teams isn’t a surprise.
This does pose a problem for Washington though, as they too have
been both good and bad through the air. As this game is expected
to be close, Cousins will have even more pressure placed on him
not to make the same critical mistakes he’s made for the
past several weeks. That should also mean less will be asked of
him, so he’ll be put into fewer spots where making that
critical mistake is likely. Last week the Titans allowed a rookie
quarterback (Blake Bortles) to throw for 336 passing yards and
a touchdown, forcing only one interception, but they did record
six sacks. Coming into Week 7 a similar stat line would be reasonable
for Cousins, but allowing him to approach those marks increases
his chances of committing turnovers and ultimately dooming the
Redskins to another defeat.
Running Game Thoughts: Thankfully RB Alfred Morris has finally
put an end to his decreasing rushing totals, but the bounce back
is merely relative as he gained 41 yards in Week 6 compared to
29 the week before. After opening the season with 91 yards on
the ground he steadily declined for the next five weeks, barely
bouncing back with last Sunday’s performance. Between offensive
turnovers and their opponents running away with the game, Morris
has received 15 carries or more only twice this season, and hasn’t
had more than 13 since the third week. As disappointing as it
has been to see his workload minimized he’s still far and
away the most involved running back on the team, recording nearly
five times as many touches and four times as many yards as any
other ball carrier. The team now averages fewer than 100 rushing
yards per game but they’ve scored six touchdowns on the
ground, though all of them occurred in the first four weeks of
the season. In the two most recent contests the team has not rushed
for a score and has averaged only 52 rushing yards per game with
a mere three yards per carry.
If the goal is to reinvigorate the running game, hosting Tennessee
may be just what the home team needs. Averaging nearly 128 rushing
yards against per game gives the Redskins an opportunity to improve
on their current ground game slump and to help Morris continue
his resurgence back toward fantasy must-start status. He still
has a long way to go before once again proving his worth, but
a large portion of that falls on an offense that has turned away
from the rushing attack in recent weeks. For the time being this
optimism is offered cautiously. The Titans have allowed six rushing
touchdowns in six games this season so there may be one ripe for
the picking in Week 7 as well. Tennessee has allowed a score in
four different games this year, conceded 174 rushing yards in
a fifth one, and the only remaining game was the in Week 1 where
nothing went right for their opponent. Provided that the contest
remains close and the Washington offense utilizes the rushing
attack appropriately, Morris may find opportunities in Week 7
where he has not for most of the season. With the recent rash
of injuries muddling fantasy rosters everywhere, the Washington
ball carrier is a sneaky upside play this week.
Projections:
Kirk Cousins: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Alfred Morris: 65 rush yds
DeSean Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 60 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Titans 20, Redskins 17 ^ Top
Vikings at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: An ankle
injury kept quarterback Teddy Bridgewater out of the Week 5 road
loss, so this Sunday will be his first start in an opponent’s
stadium. Already under center for two home games, a win and a
loss, the rookie signal caller is still in search of his first
passing touchdown, though he did rush for a score as the Vikings
starter in Week 4. After earning a victory that week with no interceptions
or passing touchdowns, most recently Bridgewater threw three picks,
and actually completed two passes to an opposing player whereas
multiple players on his team caught only one. The third interception
was returned for more yards than any Vikings receiver gained on
a passing play in Week 6, so without much imagination the rookie
conceivably had a better day throwing to his opponent than his
Minnesota teammates. In addition to his mistakes, inexperience,
and troubles adjusting to the speed of the NFL, pressure from
the defense has highlighted his youth; last week he took six sacks
in addition to throwing three interceptions. From a limited sample
size, Bridgewater is averaging over 250 passing yards per game
and is completing almost 63% of his passes, but without being
a consistent threat to find the endzone his fantasy upside is
limited. Since he’s not throwing touchdowns his receivers
then can’t be catching any, so until some of the more prominent
rookie growing pains are assuaged only Vikings ball carriers have
any reliable fantasy value.
Bridgewater is far from the only problem with the aerial attack.
The Minnesota offensive line has surrendered the second most sacks
in the league. Fittingly, the Bills defense has recorded the second
most sacks in the league. This staunch contrast figures to be
on full display Sunday as the aggressive and talented Buffalo
pass rushers are unleashed on a struggling O-line and a rookie
quarterback trying to learn on the fly. The Bills recorded 12
of their 19 sacks in their three victories while also holding
the opposing quarterback as many touchdowns as interceptions thrown.
In the games where the defense didn’t record any picks the
Bills lost, and in defeat the team collected roughly half as many
sacks as they did when winning the game. Using the old formula
for success, forcing turnovers and pressuring the quarterback,
the Buffalo defense has been able to overcome inconsistencies
from their own offense to lead their team to victory. If the Bills
are able to control the line of scrimmage and disrupt the timing
of the passing game, Minnesota has demonstrated zero resiliency
in this aspect of their offense and Bridgewater is likely to suffer
a repeat of the miserable performance last week.
Running Game Thoughts: Surprising most, running back Matt Asiata
was declared the backup in Week 6 after being the primary ball
carrier in the absence of Adrian Peterson. Going into this week
it appears that Jerick McKinnon will once again be the starter,
but Coach Mike Zimmer made comments suggesting that Asiata will
see more work on Sunday after receiving only three total touches
behind McKinnon. To a reasonable extent the offensive line which
struggles with pass protection has been decent when run blocking,
as the Vikings average 4.5 yards per carry and almost 120 yards
per contest. They have done so while staying outside of the top
ten for rushing attempts, even while trying to protect their young
quarterback and removing some of the responsibilities from his
shoulders. As the starter last week, McKinnon carried the ball
a team-high 11 times for 40 yards and was also targeted out of
the backfield six times, resulting in six receptions for 42 yards.
As the pressure release valve for the offense, the running back
will be targeted frequently by inexperienced quarterbacks as they
fail to go through their progressions or are forced to get rid
of the ball sooner than planned. With the potential for a time-share
situation in Minnesota, provided that Zimmer’s comments
come to fruition, neither back has tremendous fantasy value at
this moment, but as a clear starter is determined that will certainly
change. McKinnon has the more impressive upside on the field,
so he’s the current favorite to win the starting role and
as such is the better player to target now and stash on the fantasy
bench for later.
Three teams have been beaten by Buffalo this season, and in those
games the teams struggled with consistency in the passing game
while also dealing with availability concerns with their rushing
attack. The Vikings have those traits in common, and due to a
lack of experience are convincingly worse off in those two areas
than were the teams previously defeated by the Bills. On the season
Buffalo has the top ranked rushing defense, allowing only 67 rushing
yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. They’re also one
of only two teams who have yet to concede a rushing touchdown.
Last week, even in a losing effort, the defense only yielded 50
rushing yards despite facing 27 attempts, which averages out to
1.9 yards per carry. The previous week, despite the opponent playing
from ahead for most of the game, the Bills gave up fewer than
70 yards on 20 carries, making it one of the worst statistical
games for the team this season. Not only is Buffalo expected to
disrupt the passing game by controlling the line of scrimmage,
they’re likely to obliterate the rushing attack using the
same mechanism. With no other viable alternatives the Vikings
may rely on the ground game for better or for worse, but if they
can be coerced into throwing the ball then Buffalo has the strength
in the front seven to take advantage of that as well.
Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 175 pass yds, 2 INTs, 20 rush yds
Jerick McKinnon: 30 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Matt Asiata: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 35 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Though it has yet to matriculate into better
results, when Buffalo switched from quarterback EJ Manuel to now-starting
Kyle Orton they immediately improved the experience brought to
the huddle and the passing skill of their signal caller. Though
Orton has approximately the same touchdown and interception rates
as the youngster, he has increased the passing production of the
team by over 80 yards per game, improved completion percentage
by almost 9%, and is averaging a full yard better per attempt.
By choosing Orton the Bills are showing that they think they can
win now, and that the future of the franchise can be put on hold
while the on-field product strives to be competitive in every
game rather than struggling through the growing pains of a young
quarterback. Considering the speedy receiving talent that the
team has available it is hard to argue with the decision, even
if it is less beneficial for the development of Manuel. Pass catchers
like rookie WR Sammy Watkins, second year WRs Robert Woods and
Marquise Goodwin, and even the allegedly-disgruntled WR Mike Williams
constitute perhaps the most underutilized receiving corps in the
league. With the inclusion of a reliable veteran like TE Scott
Chandler it seems that the Bills are only a quality quarterback
away from unleashing aerial fury on opposing defenses, and though
Orton is certainly not on the road to Canton at this point in
his career, he does give Buffalo a significantly better chance
to win now.
Preaching about potential won’t get the job done against
the Vikings, as they rank just outside the top five in yards allowed
with 214 per game, despite facing five of the league’s top
quarterbacks in the past five weeks. So far this season Minnesota
has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in their six games, but they’ve
recorded 14 sacks and forced five interceptions. All three of
those marks are approximately average for the NFL, making their
yardage totals even more impressive. Vikings S Harrison Smith
is tied for the league lead with three individual interceptions,
making up over half of the team’s total. It would be wise
for Orton to try to avoid throwing toward Smith, since the remainder
of the secondary has been otherwise unspectacular. Opposing quarterbacks
are completing 66% of their pass attempts against Minnesota, making
them one of the ten easiest teams to throw against. The flaw in
their defensive statistics may be in that the secondary has only
faced 188 pass attempts, the seventh lowest mark in the league,
and lower than a number of teams who have already had their bye
week whereas Minnesota has not. When games become lopsided, as
they have in three of the four Vikings losses this season, the
other team looks to chew up the clock and reach the conclusion
more rapidly, leading to fewer plays being called which ultimately
leads to an artificial inflation of their defensive statistics.
Running Game Thoughts: If frustration made a sound the noise
it would produce in Buffalo would definitely add to the cacophony
of gnashing teeth and hair pulling currently related to their
underwhelming rushing attack. Seen as the most talented ball carrier,
running back C.J. Spiller actually received the fewest touches
of the three Bills running backs, behind both Fred Jackson and
Anthony Dixon. To be fair, none of them had any appreciable success
on the ground, and without a short yardage score from Jackson
all three would have had irrelevant fantasy afternoons. No ball
carrier had more than 10 attempts or gained more than 26 yards,
though Jackson was able to contribute in the passing game to the
effect of 17 yards on four receptions. At the beginning of the
season Spiller was the most utilized back and then a shift occurred
which saw him maintain control of the ground game but allowed
Jackson to be more involved out of the backfield. In the past
two weeks Spiller has failed to out-touch Jackson and only the
latter has scored a touchdown while the former has lost a fumble.
Distributing the workload will continue to be a point of frustration
for fantasy owners concerned with the Bills ball carriers, but
for now Jackson is the back to own and Spiller is at risk of seeing
his role further diminished.
Week 7 will bring a somewhat less formidable rushing defense
to Buffalo and one that has been more permissive in allowing touchdowns
on the ground. Considering their recent struggles, any reason
for optimism related to the run game will be warmly received by
the Bills. For the season, Minnesota is allowing an average of
118 rushing yards per game and has conceded six touchdowns in
as many weeks. The only time they held an opponent without a rushing
score was in their season opener, where an injury forced the team’s
third strong quarterback into action and crippled the effectiveness
of the offense. Because of the lopsided results the Vikings have
faced more rushing attempts than most teams, so their pedestrian
4.2 yards allowed per carry mark yields a worse-than-average game
total. While the passing defense is over inflated due to fewer
throws being attempted, the rush defense actually appears worse
than it really is. Both units are approximately mediocre but neither
is particularly opportunistic, so if Orton can protect the ball
through the air and the Bills can revive their interest in the
running game, there will be opportunities for both aspects of
offense on Sunday afternoon.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Fred Jackson: 35 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
C.J. Spiller: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 55 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Bills 17, Vikings 6 ^ Top
Giants at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: From the
top of the mountain to the depths of the valley, all in three
weeks’ time, that’s what the Giants achieved after
being thoroughly dismantled in Week 6. On the last Thursday of
September, QB Eli Manning threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns
while being sacked once and tossing one interception. Last week
the New York signal caller earned half of that, with 151 passing
yards and no scores while being sacked six times; Manning was
actually pulled late in the game and his backup took two more
sacks. The most recent contest was particularly devastating as
WR Victor Cruz (patellar tendon) was hurt while making a diving
catch and has since been placed on Injured Reserve. Now the Giants
passing game must regroup for another divisional opponent, and
do so without their top receiver. WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben
Randle are expected to see the majority of snaps outside the numbers,
and TEs Larry Donnell and Daniels Fells are likely to see their
roles increase from both the tight and split out positions. Though
up and down for most of the first six games, Manning is averaging
221 yards per contest and has 11 touchdowns compared to only five
interceptions. Excluding the first two games where the Giants
looked out of sync, Manning’s TD-INT ratio moves to 8-1
which a much more impressive figure. Without Cruz no New York
pass catcher averages more than 41 receiving yards per game, so
if the team is to absorb that injury they’ll need playmakers
to rise to the occasion.
At the one-third mark of the NFL season the award for most pleasant
surprise goes to the Dallas defense. Expected to be one of the
worst units in the league, the Cowboys rank in the top eight for
passing touchdowns allowed and the top five for interceptions
forced. The greatest area of weakness is in the pass rush, with
only seven sacks recorded through six games, but by forcing turnovers
and not allowing scores, Dallas is able to get away with applying
less pressure on the passer. Surrendering only 228 yards per game
through the air doesn’t hurt either, rounding out the highlights
of the secondary that few expected to perform this well. With
the possible exception of one struggling superstar, the Cowboys
have not faced a highly though of passing attack so their impressive
results may be somewhat inflated. Nonetheless, Dallas holds the
best active win streak in the NFL and their ability to limit opponents
through the air has been a pillar of their recent success.
Running Game Thoughts: The plan for the return of RB Rashad Jennings
remains unchanged in that the Giants are aiming for him to be
back on the field following the team’s bye in Week 8. This
means once again rookie RB Andre Williams will be the primary
ball carrier in the New York backfield. To contrast the two runners,
Williams has been less efficient per carry and tends to be used
less in the passing game, but without other reasonable options
the Giants will turn to the rookie in hopes that he can better
emulate the injured starter in his second opportunity to do so.
His first experience as a starter didn’t go as planned,
but little did for New York last week so he can hardly be to blame
for the struggles. If nothing else, the offensive line can’t
look any worse than they did in Week 6, so running lanes should
be more abundant and an effective passing game will further that
cause. With nothing going well for the Giants last week Williams
still received 17 carries and was not targeted out of the backfield.
With the team averaging over 31 yards per carry through six games,
this provides tremendous room for growth for the rookie. Even
if he doesn’t realize all of that potential, he’ll
still be the primary ball carrier and could be in line for 24
or more touches if New York is able to run block and doesn’t
abandon the ground game.
Despite wildly exceeding expectations in other areas the Cowboys
are roughly as they were expected to be in defending the run.
Though they give up 115 rushing yards per game, just a shade worse
than the league average, their mark of 5.1 yards allowed per carry
is the second worst in the league. When teams decide to run against
Dallas they tend to find little resistance, and as such don’t
need to attempt quite as many rushes to yield the same result;
this largely explains why Dallas can be so poor against the run
and yet not give up a tremendous amount of yards. The rushing
inefficiency woes of Williams could be alleviated by playing against
the Cowboys, but that depends on New York showing a dedication
to the ground game and giving the rookie ball carrier a second
chance to make a great first impression. With Dallas having success
against the pass and the Giants losing their top pass catcher,
the obvious game plan calls for a heavy dose of the rushing attack
and Manning using that to break through the secondary.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 210 pass yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 80 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Odell Beckham Jr.: 55 rec yds
Rueben Randle: 45 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Daniel Fells: 35 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: For two games in a row quarterback Tony
Romo has attempted more than 30 passes, both wins by the Cowboys.
Dallas is coming off a road victory against perhaps the hardest
team (Seattle) to beat at home. During their five game winning
streak, Romo has thrown ten touchdowns compared to only two interceptions,
averaging less than 250 yards per game while completing over 70%
of his passes. He’s been the near-model of efficiency, thanks
in large part to the strong play of his offensive line and the
stellar performance put forth by the rushing attack. Even with
the more conservative passing game, Dallas receivers are still
recording solid fantasy performances, with the three primary pass
catchers averaging 40 yards or better per game and recording at
least one touchdown this season. Leading the way is WR Dez Bryant
with 73 yards per game and four total scores, followed closely
by WR Terrance Williams with 53 yards per game and five touchdowns.
Steady as always, TE Jason Witten rounds out the top three, and
after scoring in Week 6 he too now has a touchdown to his name.
Tasked with disrupting the efficiency of Dallas will be the Giants,
though in many ways that may be easier said than done. The defensive
unit is hard to figure out, excelling in some areas while being
dreadful in others. New York yields 262 passing yards per game,
barely allowing them to escape the bottom quarter of the league
in that category. They’ve forced a league-high ten interceptions
while surrendering only seven touchdowns, making them one of only
four teams in the league with fewer scores than picks. Opposing
quarterbacks complete less than 61% of their passes against New
York, giving them a top ten defense with that respect, but by
surrendering 7.9 yards per pass attempt the Giants fall to the
seventh worst spot in the league. In many ways the matchup against
Dallas will provide a true test for both squads, serving as a
litmus test of sorts for the potentially-skewed numbers that each
has put forth to this point in the season. In the absence of other
evidence, the home team is riding a winning streak and the Giants
were just manhandled on the road, so the Romo-led offense holds
the advantage.
Running Game Thoughts: If there’s a fantasy league which
rewards players for breaking historic NFL records then extra eyes
will be on Dallas for their Sunday afternoon matchup. By hitting
the century mark one more time running back DeMarco Murray will
break a record held by Jim Brown, for most consecutive 100-yard
rushing games to begin a season. Murray moved into a tie for the
record when he gained 115 last week against a stout run defense
(SEA), and that was actually his second lowest total of the season.
He averages an absurd 131 yards per game by getting 26 carries
and picking up nearly five yards per attempt. For perspective,
Murray averages more yards per game than 23 teams and has the
second best per touch average of any running back who has recorded
65 or more carries. Though he’s a talented an explosive
runner, the offensive line deserves an incredible amount of credit
for his achievements, a sentiment which he has echoed in numerous
interviews. With three first round picks working together on each
play, it’s hard to find a group of five linemen who could
challenge the Dallas quintet for supremacy along the line of scrimmage.
The run-first hard-nosed offensive approach isn’t what is
generally associated with the Cowboys, but after three 8-8 seasons
in a row they’re proving that change can be incredibly beneficial.
When compared to the six teams which have faced Dallas this season,
the Giants find themselves wishing they could be average among
that group. Aside from yards per game (116) which would be fourth
out of those others, New York has given up the most touchdowns
and second most yards per carry of the six. Last week the Giants
surrendered 203 rushing yards and a score, with 149 of those going
to one ball carrier (LeSean McCoy). Their opponent averaged 5.6
yards per carry, and when excluding non-running back carries that
average jumps to 6.5 yards per rushing attempt. Neither their
recent history nor their season stats suggest that New York will
be particularly adept at slowing down Murray or whichever of his
backups is given carries in relief of the workhorse. Provided
that he can avoid injury and Dallas doesn’t have an inexplicable
change in game plan, Murray will surpass the great Jim Brown for
the best all-time rushing start to a season, a distinction which
reflects on both him as a runner and the incredible offensive
line who has paved the way for him all season long.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 110 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 20 ^ Top
Browns at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles
had a season (and thus, career) high in passing yards last week
in his team’s loss to the Titans, throwing for 336 yards
and one score with one interception. He was clearly aided by the
return of WR Cecil Shorts, who came back from injury to snare
10 passes for 103 yards on 16 targets. Shorts’ return puts
a serious dent in the fantasy outlook of Allen Hurns, but it’s
not as if Hurns was a top-20 wide receiver. Shorts is the only
Jacksonville player worthy of a regular spot in fantasy lineups,
mostly as a WR3, including this week against the Browns.
Though Cleveland is 23rd in the NFL in pass defense, the peripheral
numbers show a team that hasn’t been as bad defending passes
as that number might indicate. They’re tied for eighth in
fewest TD passes yielded, and are 15th in opponents’ completion
percentage allowed. The Browns have allowed just one quarterback
to throw for at least 240 yards this season, and none have tossed
more than a pair of TDs against them in one game. Cleveland is
14th in FPts/G surrendered to quarterbacks and have allowed the
10th-fewest FPts/G to tight ends. They have given up the 11th-most
FPts/G to wide receivers, but not having to face Antonio Brown
(who has over a quarter of the receiving yards they’ve allowed
to wide receivers and nearly a quarter of the fantasy points they’ve
allowed to wide receivers) will be a big help.
Running Game Thoughts: Toby Gerhart missed last week’s game
against Tennessee, but fantasy owners probably didn’t miss
him. He is running for a paltry 2.6 YPC this season and has only
one rushing score. Storm Johnson filled in as the lead back and
had 10 carries and a score, but gained just 21 yards. Johnson
isn’t a fantasy option at this point, and will have to show
a lot more to even be considered a flex when faced with a good
match-up like Cleveland offers.
Just one RB has gained at least 100 yards on the ground this season
against the Browns, but the team has allowed plenty of players
to get close, and their overall numbers show a team unable to
contain the run. They are 30th in both run defense and YPC allowed,
and T-18th in rushing scores given up. In Cleveland’s five
games this season, they’ve allowed four different running
backs to accumulate at least 80 rushing yards, and are allowing
the 8th-most FPts/G in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Blake
Bortles: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Storm
Johnson: 45 rush yds
Denard
Robinson: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Cecil
Shorts: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen
Robinson: 45 rec yds
Marqise
Lee: 30 rec yds
Allen
Hurns: 25 rec yds
Clay
Harbor: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer
is generating a lot of headlines for a guy who failed to complete
50 percent of his passes last week, but fantasy owners should
be deft enough not to let the headlines fool them. Hoyer isn’t
turning the ball over, throwing just one pick this year, but he
also has only one game with multiple scoring passes and is 28th
in FPts/G at his position, which is barely QB2 status. The Browns
are a running team, which explains their failure to have a wide
receiver inside the top-50 in FPts/G, and even though TE Jordan
Cameron is 14th in FPts/G at his position, he has only nine receptions
on the year. Nonetheless, Cleveland takes on Jacksonville this
week, so it’s as good a time as any to start Hoyer if your
QB is on a bye, to put in Andrew Hawkins as a WR3, and put Cameron
in as a starting TE.
Last week, the Jaguars did not allow a TD pass to Tennessee quarterback
Charlie Whitehurst. It was the first time this season they did
not permit a scoring throw, and Whitehurst’s 233 passing
yards marked the first time this year Jacksonville held an opposing
QB to under 250 passing yards. Those are positives, to be sure,
but as a whole, the Jags have been horrid against the pass in
2014. They’re 30th in the NFL in pass defense, T-27th in
TD passes surrendered, 29th in completion percentage allowed,
30th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and the lone interception
they’ve attained was back in Week 1. Jacksonville has given
up the 6th-most FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks, the 10th-most
to wide receivers, and the 4th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Ben Tate returned from injury in Week 5
and led the Browns with 25 carries, 78 rushing yards, and two
scores last week. More impressive was Isaiah Crowell, who had
only 11 carries but picked up 77 yards and a score. The only unfortunate
part of Tate’s return is that Terrance West was relegated
to the bench, thus ending his fantasy usefulness. But Tate remains
useful, and should be slotted as a RB2 against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville hasn’t been awful against the run, but with
teams often jumping out to big leads and wanting to run the clock
against them, that makes it easier to understand. For the season,
the Jags are 19th in the league in run defense, T-18th in rushing
scores ceded, and 12th in YPC allowed. Though no running back
has yet to amass even 90 rushing yards in a game against Jacksonville,
the team has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards to running
backs, and have allowed the 7th-most FPts/G in the NFL to players
at that position.
Projections:
Brian
Hoyer: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ben
Tate: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Isaiah
Crowell: 65 rush yds
Andrew
Hawkins: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Miles
Austin: 50 rec yds
Taylor
Gabriel: 35 rec yds
Travis
Benjamin: 20 rec yds
Jordan
Cameron: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Browns 21, Jaguars 13 ^ Top
Bengals at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton’s
323 passing yards last week against Carolina were a season-high,
though he also had a season-high with two interceptions while
throwing a pair of TDs. He’s been mediocre, at best for
fantasy owners, ranking 26th in FPts/G among quarterbacks. It
certainly hurts that all-world WR A.J. Green is dealing with a
toe malady that kept him out of last week’s game, and very
well could make him miss this week as well. Mohamed Sanu had 120
yards and a score in Green’s absence, and is the only Cincinnati
pass-catcher worthy of fantasy consideration. Sanu is just a WR3
this week, however, as he goes up against a Colts team that has
stifled opposing wide receivers.
Indianapolis hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row
of quarterbacks in recent weeks, and their pass defense has responded.
Over their last four games, the team has squared off against Blake
Bortles, Charlie Whitehurst, Joe Flacco and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The Colts have more interceptions than TD passes given up during
that time, and only Bortles threw for multiple scores. Overall,
Indy is 14th in the league against the pass and T-8th-fewest TD
passes allowed. They’ve given up the 7th-fewest FPts/G to
quarterbacks and the 4th-fewest FPts/G to wide receivers, with
no wide receiver yet to amass 100 receiving yards against them
(though to be fair, Andre Johnson had 99 yards last week). The
team has had difficulty against tight ends and is surrendering
the 9th-most FPts/G in the league to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Giovani Bernard scored on an 89-yard run
last week and wound up with 137 yards on the ground and 20 more
on receptions. He’s fifth in FPts/G among running backs
and a must-start regardless of his opponent. Rookie Jeremy Hill
also has a place on fantasy rosters, but is a riskier proposition
on a week-to-week basis. This week, he’s worthy of a flex
play against Indianapolis, who isn’t shy about allowing
fantasy points to running backs.
The Colts may be 11th in the NFL in rush defense, but they’ve
also given up the 6th-highest YPC average, and are tied with three
other teams for second-most rushing scores allowed this season.
Before last week, Indy hadn’t given up many big performances
to individual backs this year, but then again, no running back
had at least 10 carries against them in Weeks 3-5. Arian Foster
changed that last Thursday, carrying the ball 20 times and picking
up over 100 yards with a pair of scores. Foster also had 32 receiving
yards, continuing a trend that has seen the Colts allow the third-most
receiving yards in the NFL to running backs, part of the reason
they’ve surrendered the ninth-most FPts/G in the league
to running backs.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Giovani
Bernard: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Jeremy
Hill: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Mohamed
Sanu: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Dane
Sanzenbacher: 40 rec yds
Brandon
Tate: 35 rec yds
Jermaine
Gresham: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
continued his spectacular season last week with 370 yards and
three TDs in the Colts’ win over the Texans. He remains
fantasy’s top quarterback, and his plethora of weapons is
all over fantasy score sheets as well. T.Y. Hilton amassed 223
yards and one score on nine receptions last week to move to 12th
in FPts/G at wide receiver, Reggie Wayne is still a very solid
WR2 or WR3, running back Ahmad Bradshaw leads the team with five
TD catches, Dwayne Allen has ventured into the TE1 conversation,
and Coby Fleener is a decent bye-week replacement. That’s
particularly true this week, with Allen being a must-start against
the Bengals, who have been shredded this season by tight ends.
Cincinnati’s pass defense is somewhat difficult to figure
out. They’re 22nd in the league against the pass, but are
T-2nd-fewest TD throws given up, and are one of just four teams
in the NFL to have more interceptions than TD passes allowed.
The Bengals are second in both yards per pass attempt and completion
percentage allowed, but has surrendered the 8th-most FPts/G to
quarterbacks. Some of that has to do with Cam Newton running for
over 100 yards with a score last week, but they’ve also
given up four TDs with only a single interception in their last
two games. Then there’s this: the Bengals have yielded the
6th-fewest FPts/G in the league to wide receivers, but are tied
for most FPts/G allowed to tight ends. Three players at the position
have 80+ receiving yard games against them, and they’ve
allowed three scores to tight ends in their last two games.
Running Game Thoughts: Neither Trent Richardson nor the aforementioned
Bradshaw had a good game on the ground against Houston, with Richardson
managing 41 yards on 17 carries and Bradshaw compiling 34 yards
on 11 carries. Both did manage to score, with Richardson’s
tally coming via the run and Bradshaw’s on a reception.
Richardson is 29th in FPts/G at RB, and Bradshaw is 10th. Richardson
is fine as a flex play for a team in need of a player due to the
bye week, but Bradshaw should be starting every week, and this
week’s match-up versus Cincinnati is no exception.
The Bengals may be 29th in the NFL both in run defense and YPC
allowed, but that’s not necessarily a reflection of how
they’ve performed against running backs. The team –
which is also T-18th in rushing scores surrendered – has
allowed 707 rushing yards this season, but nearly 30 percent of
those yards have come via quarterbacks. As for running backs,
just two (New England’s Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen)
have gained over 70 yards against Cincinnati, and only one team
has surrendered fewer receiving yards to running backs than they
have. Taken as a whole, the Bengals are about in the middle of
the league in terms of FPts/G given up to running backs, allowing
the 14th-fewest or 19th-most, however you may want to look at
it.
Projections:
Andrew
Luck: 335 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Ahmad
Bradshaw: 55 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent
Richardson: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
T.Y.
Hilton: 75 rec yds
Reggie
Wayne: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem
Nicks: 30 rec yds
Dwayne
Allen: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby
Fleener: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Bengals 24 ^ Top
Seahawks @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: For all the
good things that Russell Wilson has shown us this season, it will
be very difficult for fantasy owners to forget about the dud he
dropped on us in Week 6 at home against the Cowboys. Although
the Dallas defense has turned out to be significantly better than
many gave them credit for, Wilson’s 128 yards and no passing
touchdowns were a frightening example of what can happen when
an opposing team shuts down Percy Harvin and holds Wilson’s
legs in check. While Wilson did rush for a touchdown, saving his
otherwise four point fantasy day, his 14/28 completion number
is concerning. Not only is it concerning from afar, but Wilson’s
own wide receiver (Doug Baldwin) was seen losing his cool on the
Super Bowl XLVIII-winning quarterback on the sidelines during
the game. Baldwin, although a veteran who has had a productive
NFL career, should shoulder some of the blame as no Seattle receiver
has truly stepped up as a reliable target for the third-year quarterback
in 2014. Wilson has only passed for over 210 yards once this season
(Week 5 at Washington), but his real fantasy value lies in that
he is a very efficient passer who is also one of the top five
runners at the position. That is a recipe for a top-10 quarterback,
but it can sometimes lead to disappointing outputs like the one
we saw in Week 6.
In Week 7, Wilson will have an opportunity to right the ship
against a division rival and a team that has struggled against
opposing passers this season. St. Louis currently ranks 23rd in
the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, having most
recently given up 343 yards and three touchdowns to Colin Kaepernick.
Don’t expect that kind of production from Wilson, but he
should have a decent bounce-back game in what will be an important
game for Seattle.
Running Game Thoughts: We all know that Russell Wilson is capable
of putting a game on his shoulders and getting a win for his team,
but the truth is that Seattle is better built to run the football
than they are to be a vertical, pass-happy offense. That’s
why it’s a bit surprising that the team opted to only give
Marshawn Lynch 10 carries during their Week 6 loss to the Cowboys.
What’s even more surprising is that with 61 yards on those
carries, Lynch was very productive with the opportunities he was
given. While it’s a bit assuring that Lynch didn’t
give up significant touches or snaps to another running back,
Lynch is now averaging just 13 carries per game through his first
five contests. The Seattle coaching staff has to see this and
it would not be surprising to see them nearly double that number
in Week 7 as they head to St. Louis to face a Rams defense that
has conceded the seventh-most rushing yards per game thus far
in 2014.
The one concern for Lynch owners has to be that the Rams have
been excellent at keeping opposing running backs out of the end
zone. Only the NFL’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, has
rushed for a touchdown against St. Louis so far this year. Still,
Lynch is a stud and a must-start in what is otherwise a great
matchup. Look for him to approach 20 carries and it would not
be surprising to see him beat the odds and get into the end zone
at least once.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 195 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 30 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 50 rec yds, 25 rush yds
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: For one half, it appeared as if rookie Austin
Davis may be on his way to having a nice fantasy day and earning
a victory over one of the best teams in the league (SF). Then
came the second half. Davis and the Rams scored just three second
half points and watched the 49ers turn what was a 14-point deficit
into a 14-point victory. Davis was coming off of back-to-back
impressive fantasy days, but reminded us why it can be so difficult
to trust young signal callers as he missed countless receivers
late in the game, especially once the team had fallen behind and
his confidence was low. What was perhaps most disappointing for
fantasy owners is that wide receiver Brian Quick, who had been
one of the most consistently solid receivers in PPR formats through
his first four games of the season, was held to just one catch
for 11 yards. While it’s easy to write off the loss and
the offensive struggles to a tough matchup, things won’t
get any easier this week as the Rams host the defending Super
Bowl champion.
Seattle, who is coming off of a disappointing performance against
the Cowboys, will be looking for make a statement in this division
game, and it could come at the expense of a young quarterback
in Davis. While Richard Sherman has not been the shutdown/interception
machine that he was in 2013, he is still absolutely one of the
top cornerbacks in the league and will likely be locked up against
Quick for much of the day. This could mean another frustrating
day for fantasy owners. One matchup to watch, though, is at tight
end. Seattle has been atrocious against opposing tight ends this
season, having conceded the second-most fantasy points per game
to the position this season; including two touchdowns to Dallas
tight ends in Week 6. Jared Cook is coming off of a 74-yard day
against the 49ers and could have had more if Davis was accurate
in the second half. Cook be in for another nice day against Seahawks.
Running Game Thoughts: Second-year running back Zac Stacy came
into the 2014 training camp as the perceived starter, but nearly
lost the job to backup Benny Cunningham based on his lack of production.
Stacy’s struggles have continued now into the regular season
as the runner has now scored just one touchdown on the year and
is averaging a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. While those numbers
could be acceptable if Stacy was an exceptional pass protector
or receiver out of the backfield, the truth is that he is neither.
As such, he has conceded touches to Cunningham, including a touchdown
in each of the past two weeks. Aside from those two scores, Cunningham
himself hasn’t been very productive with his carries, which
has now led to the Rams giving a few opportunities to rookie Tre
Mason. Mason, a third round pick in this year’s draft, showed
flashes of his explosive ability, rushing for 40 yards on just
five carries. This could mean that he is on the field even more,
which just adds to an already crowded backfield on a not-so-great
offense.
Things look even more grim for the fantasy outlook of this backfield
when you consider that they will be running against one of the
NFL’s best run defenses. Although they gave up a big day
to DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys in Week 6, they’re not
the only ones who have struggled in that matchup, and they’ve
been exceptional in their other four contests, conceding an average
of just 8.5 fantasy points per game to the running back position
in those games.
Projections:
Austin Davis: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Zac Stacy: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Tre Mason: 30 rush yds
Brian Quick: 50 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 40 rec yds
Jared Cook: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 16 ^ Top
Chiefs @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: A bye week
could have been just what the doctor ordered as the Chiefs head
into what might be one of the most important games they play this
season: a road division contest against the Chargers. Quarterback
Alex Smith, who has been a viable QB2 option throughout most of
his career, has continued to be just that in 2014, with the exception
of a discouraging 158-yard passing day against the 49ers back
in Week 5. The reality is that the Chiefs simply don’t have
the offensive firepower to make Smith a realistic starting fantasy
quarterback unless you’re in a terrible situation or a two-QB
league. The only player who has been reliable whatsoever in this
offense has been tight end Travis Kelce who is enjoying a breakout
year. Kelce had scored in three straight contests heading into
the bye week and should have a good chance to do that again in
Week 7. Kelce is by far the most-targeted player in this offense
and it doesn’t appear likely that will change anytime soon.
No other player in the offense is worth discussing from a fantasy
standpoint, but Kelce is quickly establishing himself as a must-start
in most leagues, especially given the lack of production that
we’ve seen from the position around the league.
Running Game Thoughts: With Jamaal Charles now fully healthy,
the Kansas City offense is now back to revolving around him and
his huge playmaking ability. Charles, the highest scoring non-quarterback
in fantasy football during the 2013 NFL season, took 15 carries
for 80 yards in his most recent game against a rock solid San
Francisco 49ers defense. But what’s most important about
that number is that while backup Knile Davis has been great when
given the opportunity, he took only two carries from Charles on
the day. Because of that, it’s easy to put Charles back
in your fantasy lineup without any concerns about what defense
he is going up against.
While Charles hasn’t seen the high number of receptions
that he did in 2014, one has to assume that those numbers will
pick up a bit over the course of the season and they could start
to increase this week as he goes up against a San Diego defense
that has conceded the most receptions to opposing running backs
so far this season, including four receiving touchdowns. While
San Diego has only allowed one team to rush for 100 yards against
them, it’s worth noting that it happened just a week ago
and against a bad offense in Oakland.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Jamaal Charles: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 45 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Chargers’ quarterback Philip Rivers
continued what has been an NFL MVP caliber season thus far as
he threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns in an important road
division win over the Raiders in Week 6. The performance marked
Rivers’ third straight 20-plus point fantasy day. He has
already thrown for 15 touchdowns this season with only two interceptions.
Rivers has now reestablished himself as a must-start for fantasy
owners, but what has been a bit irritating is that he is doing
an amazing job of spreading the ball around to a variety of receivers.
That’s great from a quarterback standpoint, but it is very
tough to watch if you’re a fantasy owner. Tight end Antonio
Gates and wide receiver Eddie Royal have combined for 11 of his
15 touchdowns, but have both had games where they’ve been
practically invisible. Meanwhile, second-year receiver Keenan
Allen has been one of the most disappointing players in all of
fantasy football as he has just one game on the year where he
has even been worth discussing.
While the Chiefs have been good against the pass in recent weeks,
they’ve really only had one game against a quarterback who
has been highly productive this season; and that came in Week
2 when they allowed Peyton Manning to throw for 242 yards and
three touchdowns. Look for Rivers and the San Diego offense to
continue to roll in this game, but it seems like predicting which
receiver is going to have a good game is going to be tough to
predict on a week-to-week basis. Those looking for positive spin
on Allen’s chances in this game can look back to what he
did in 2013 when he had over 200 total yards receiving in his
two contests against the Chiefs.
Running Game Thoughts: With Danny Woodhead on the IR and Ryan
Mathews still sidelined with an injury, it was rookie Branden
Oliver who stepped in and got the start in Week 6. He made the
most of the opportunity, rushing 26 times for 101 yards and a
touchdown while adding an additional 23 yards as a receiver. The
impressive performance marked the second straight highly productive
game for Oliver who has now put up over 300 yards of offense over
his past two games. With Donald Brown having still not practiced
at the midway point of the week, it seems very likely that Oliver
will again get a heavy workload this week, which could translate
into another excellent fantasy day against a Kansas City defense
that has given up an average of 141 total yards per game to opposing
running backs so far this season. The Chiefs are, however, one
of only two teams (Buffalo) who are yet to allowed a touchdown
to an opposing running back this season.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 280 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Branden Oliver: 80 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 80 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 20 ^ Top
Cardinals @ Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After three
games without their starting quarterback, the Arizona Cardinals
finally got Carson Palmer back in Week 6. Palmer, who had missed
time due to issues with a nerve in his shoulder, looked good upon
his return, at least from a fantasy standpoint, as he threw for
250 yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins. Palmer wasn’t
a certain starter until late in the week and he is still feeling
some discomfort in the shoulder, but there is absolutely no question
that the Cardinals are a significantly better offense now that
he is back on the field. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald enjoyed
the best game of his season as he caught six passes for 98 yards
and a touchdown while Michael Floyd caught four passes for 47
yards and a touchdown of his own. Rookie John Brown was the odd
man out as he was the only one of the top three receiving options
who did not get into the end zone, but still had a respectable
day with four catches for 43 yards.
Now that Palmer is back, look for the Cardinals to stretch the
field significantly more than they have in recent weeks. That
could be trouble for the Raiders who have conceded five passing
touchdowns and nearly 600 yards over their past two contests.
The Raiders are among the league’s worst teams once again
which could mean that the Cardinals don’t need to pass quite
as much in this game as they normally do, but don’t be too
worried. Even if they only go with their typical offense for three
quarters, it should be enough for the usual players to get their
numbers.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been a bit of an up-and-down season
from running back Andre Ellington from a fantasy standpoint in
standard scoring leagues, but the young ball carrier has been
exceptional as a pass catcher. He is currently on pace for over
50 receptions despite playing with a bad quarterback situation
for the past few weeks. Now that Palmer is back, look for Ellington
to possibly get fewer total carries, but for the quality of those
carries to go up significantly. Palmer’s big arm will help
stretch the field, which should give Ellington fewer stacked boxes
to run against, and could lead to a nice increase in yards per
carry. He’ll have an exceptional matchup in Week 7 as he
goes up against an Oakland defense that has conceded the fourth-most
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this
season. Opposing teams have rushed for over 100 yards in all but
one game against the Raiders so far, and the Raiders have given
up six total touchdowns to the position. Ellington is a solid
RB1 option this week and could enjoy one of his best fantasy games
of the season.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 250 pass yds, 2 TD
Andre Ellington: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: While the Oakland Raiders are now 0-5 on
the season, it’s hard to blame rookie quarterback Derek
Carr. Carr, who threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns with only
one interception in the team’s Week 6 loss to the Chargers,
has given Raiders fans hopes for the future. More importantly
for our purposes, he has been good enough to actually make multiple
receivers into fantasy relevant topics in the Oakland offense.
Former Packer James Jones has continued to produce at a high level
and scored his third touchdown of the season in last week’s
contest while it has been fourth-year receiver Andre Holmes who
has been the team’s most explosive receiving option over
the past two weeks. Holmes’ nine catches for 195 yards and
three touchdowns over that stretch are impressive and there are
many reports about how impressed the coaching staff has been with
his improvement. If Holmes can stay on the field and not fall
back into mediocrity, he may be someone that fantasy owners want
to start paying close attention to.
Carr and his receivers have another opportunity for a big game
this week as they host an Arizona Cardinals defense that has a
lot of hype behind it, but has struggled mightily against opposing
passing games thus far. The Cardinals are currently allowing the
sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and have given
up 833 yards and six passing touchdowns over their past two contests.
Running Game Thoughts: If it wasn’t for the Jaguars, there
would not be a worse team in the NFL than the Oakland Raiders
when it comes to running the football. Much was made about the
team’s off-season acquisition of veteran former NFL rushing
champ Maurice Jones-Drew, but it has not materialized into much
on the field. Jones-Drew has carried the ball just six times over
his past two games while a familiar face in the Oakland backfield,
Darren McFadden, has continued to be the team’s top tailback.
McFadden has rushed the ball 25 times over that same span and
has actually been fairly productive with his opportunities, rushing
for 120 yards with those carries. Looks for that split to continue
in Week 7, but don’t be surprised of the yards per carry
fall significantly against this wall-like run defense. Arizona
has allowed just the second-fewest rushing yards this season and
the third-fewest total fantasy points to the running back position.
This is among the worst possible matchups for an already struggling
running game, so if you’ve got other options, it would be
wise to sit your Oakland running backs.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Darren McFadden: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 20 rush yds
James Jones: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Holmes: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Raiders 17 ^ Top
49ers @ Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: It was the
tale of two halves a week ago for the San Francisco 49ers. The
team came out flat early in the contest and fell behind 14-0 to
their division rival, the St. Louis Rams, only to come back and
win the game by 14 with a final score of 31-17. Things really
got sparked when quarterback Colin Kaepernick hit wide receiver
Brandon Lloyd for a long touchdown with just seconds remaining
in the first half. From that point on, it seemed like Kaepernick
had gained the confidence he needed and was almost impossible
to stop. Kaepernick finished the day with 343 yards and three
touchdowns, both season highs, and he added 37 yards on the ground.
Receivers Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin also both caught
touchdowns in the contest while tight end Vernon Davis, who was
a game-time decision after battling injuries over the past few
weeks, was held to just three catches for 30 yards.
With Davis having another week to get healthy, the 49ers passing
game may finally begin clicking which could make for an interesting
matchup as they go up against a Denver Broncos defense that has
struggled at time against opposing passing games. They’ve
given up an average of 17 fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks and if their pass rushers can’t get past the
49ers’ rockstar offensive line, they could have a really
tough time keeping the young quarterback in check.
Running Game Thoughts: After back-to-back games with over 100
rushing yards, San Francisco’s all-time leading rusher,
Frank Gore, began to show his age a bit in Week 6 as he was able
to rush for only 38 yards on 16 carries. Those type of numbers
would typically open the door for other players to step in and
produce, and it’s hard to say that the San Francisco coaching
staff didn’t give rookie Carlos Hyde a chance. Hyde struggled
as well, rushing for just 14 yards with his 11 carries. It was
just another example of what has been a very hot or cold San Francisco
running game so far this year.
They might be in for another difficult game in Week 7 as they
head to Denver to face a Broncos defense that has allowed the
fewest rushing yardage in the NFL this season at just 273 yards
through five games. A lot of this is because opposing teams have
ran the fewest total number of times against the Broncos at just
94 attempts, but that isn’t likely to change as the reason
that teams run so few times against the Broncos is because they
often times are forced to pass in the second half of games in
an effort to make up large deficits. Look for San Francisco to
run the ball a fewer than usual number of times, which could make
for a less-than-stellar fantasy day.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 210 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Frank Gore: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Carlos Hyde: 30 rush yds
Michael Crabtree: 60 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Johnson: 25 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another monumental moment in the incredible
career of future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning could
happen this Sunday as he currently sits just two touchdowns away
from tying Brett Favre’s career record of 408 touchdown
passes. Manning, who crushed the single season record in 2013,
is on pace for yet another incredible season and has already thrown
15 touchdowns in just five games, which puts him on pace to break
the record this weekend. Manning’s insane production has
been enjoyed by all of the Broncos receiving options, but particularly
tight end Julius Thomas who is also producing at a record-setting
pace in 2014. Thomas has already scored nine touchdowns in just
five games, which puts him well beyond the pace to break not only
the single season touchdown record for the tight end position
(17, Rob Gronkowski), but for ANY position (23, Randy Moss). It
would be almost inconceivable to believe that Thomas could stay
on this pace, but even if he trails off, he has become one of
the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league at any
position. Meanwhile receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
are also producing great numbers and locked in as every-week starters
in most leagues.
Typically we would look at a matchup against the San Francisco
49ers and their 2nd-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks
and have some hesitation about starting the players in that offense.
But this isn’t your usual team and Peyton Manning isn’t
your usual quarterback. Manning seems to thrive in these kind
of matchups and in a primetime Sunday Night Football game at home,
it would be surprising to see him NOT throw the three touchdowns
he will need to break the career touchdown record.
Running Game Thoughts: With Montee Ball out, it looked as if
Ronnie Hillman was set to step in as the Broncos’ top running
back, but given the lack of commitment that the team has shown
to him over the past couple of seasons, it was not hard to believe
that they could end up giving significant carries to fellow backs
Juwan Thompson and C.J. Anderson. While Thompson did get eight
carries, Anderson did not get a single touch. Instead, it was
Hillman who finally got a full workload and made the most of it,
rushing for 100 yards on 24 carries with 16 more yards as a receiver.
Hillman still has a long way to go before he’s going to
be a reliable every week starter for the Broncos, let alone for
fantasy owners, but his production in a tough matchup against
the Jets is a good sign. Ball will be out yet again, which should
mean plenty of touches for Hillman and in a high-powered offense
line Denver’s, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hillman
have another decent fantasy day. Unfortunately, Hillman is going
from a tough matchup against the Jets to an even tougher one against
the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed just 405 yards rushing in
six games this season and they’ve allowed only three touchdowns
to the position. Hillman’s inspiring performance in Week
6 will have him in a lot of lineups this week, but a repeat performance
would be hard to expect.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 315 pass yds, 3 TD
Ronnie Hillman: 60 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Juwan Thompson: 20 rush yds
Demaryius Thomas: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 70 rec yds
Wes Welker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 27, 49ers 23 ^ Top
Dolphins at Bears
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill
will likely never be more than an average quarterback, but the
reality is not every team will be able to trot out a difference
maker at the position. He still has some upside, but he misses
too many easy passes and isn’t always careful with the football.
On the season he’s completing only 60 percent of his passes
while averaging 230 passing yards per game with an 8/5 touchdown-
to- interception ratio. On a positive note, he has kept the Dolphins
in most of their games this season while playing .500 football.
In his second season, Mike Wallace has become a much bigger factor
in the passing game, as the team has used him all over the field
and not strictly as a deep threat. As a result, Wallace isn’t
the “boom/bust” player he’s generally been for
fantasy owners, but instead he’s been consistently good.
He’s grabbed a touchdown pass in four of five games this
season. The rest of the targets for the young Tannehill are pedestrian-
type options, but last week rookie Jarvis Landry threw his hat
into the ring for a bigger piece of the action, catching 5 balls
for 71 yards with a score. Landry isn’t a blazer but rather
a solid possession type, but he does, however, offer more run
after the catch ability than Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson or
tight end Charles Clay.
The Bears’ pass defense has held up fairly well in 2014.
It sits in the middle of the pack, allowing 246.2 yards per game
and 10 touchdowns through the air in six weeks. The unit has always
shown the ability to turn the ball over and currently has 8 interceptions
on the year, led by rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller with 3. The
rookie has played very well so far this season and has been a
plus in coverage.
Running Game Thoughts: With Knowshon Moreno succumbing to yet
another injury, this time a torn ACL, third- year runner Lamar
Miller is now secure in a feature back role with the team. Miller
is in the midst of his best professional season, averaging 5.2
yards per carry with 4 total touchdowns on the season. Miller
is a big back at 224 pounds but doesn’t run with much power.
However, he has improved in that area this season and is seeing
goal-line opportunities. The Dolphins’ offensive line has
been much improved over last season, and Miller should be in line
to produce as a RB1 going forward.
The Bears’ run defense finished last season ranked dead
last in the NFL but has surprisingly been a top- 10 unit thus
far in 2014. The unit is allowing 103.7 yards per game with only
4 touchdowns yielded on the ground.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 225 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Lamar Miller: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Damien Williams: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 85 rec yds
Brian Hartline: 20 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 40 rec yds
Charles Clay: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Starting
quarterback Jay Cutler has all the arm talent in the world but
can be maddeningly inconsistent, not only from game to game but,
at times, from the first half to the second half. His penchant
for turning the ball over isn’t a secret and is perhaps
the main reason he will never be an elite NFL quarterback. Last
week, it was all “good” Jay from start to finish as
Cutler put up 381 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers against
the beleaguered Falcons defense. Not surprisingly, 249 of those
381 yards went to his massive 6’4” wide-outs Alshon
Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall, a duo that is among the league’s
most dangerous and most uncoverable. Add the 6’7”
tight end Martellus Bennett into the mix and it’s a skill
position group that would probably outrebound the New York Knicks
in a pickup game. The Bears are loaded at the skill positions
also featuring Matt Forte, who offers production in the passing
game at the running back position. Forte has been as productive
as ever in offensive guru Trestman’s system, despite reaching
the age where running backs are generally slowing down.
The Dolphins have a top- 10 passing defense, allowing only 221
yards per game, but aren’t all that unfriendly to fantasy
quarterbacks since they have allowed 10 passing touchdowns with
only 3 interceptions in five games this season. They do have a
better- than- average pass rush, however, and a pressured Cutler
tends to make mistakes.
Running Game Thoughts: Forte has been one of the NFL’s more
underappreciated running backs since entering the NFL out of Tulane.
Even fantasy owners have a perception of him being injury prone
despite him only missing five games in six NFL seasons. In the
Bears’ pass- heavy offense, Forte is averaging only 66.5
rushing yards per game, but he supplements that with 62.7 receiving
yards per game. Forte rushed for his first two touchdowns on the
ground last week in Atlanta and has generally not been a great
short- yardage back. The Bears drafted Ka’Deem Carey out
of Arizona, but he hasn’t seen a heavy workload as of yet
with Forte being one of the few workhorse backs left in the league.
Carey isn’t fast for being such a small back, but he has
great vision and lateral movement and can fight his way through
heavy traffic at the line of scrimmage.
The Dolphins are allowing only 110 rushing yards per game and
have only allowed three rushing touchdowns this season. The Bears
should attack through the air as usual at Soldier Field.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 65 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Ka’Deem
Carey: 25 rush yds
Santonio Holmes: 35 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 115 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Bears 23, Dolphins 17 ^ Top
Saints at Lions
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: This week
is a matchup of two traditionally high- flying passing attacks
that are struggling a bit in 2014. Both teams may also be without
their best weapons as tight end Jimmy Graham and wide receiver
Calvin Johnson are expected to miss the contest. Drew Brees’
numbers haven’t been bad, but he’s turned the ball
over too much and the team has struggled to win games. On the
season Brees has thrown for 1,574 yards with 9 touchdowns and
6 interceptions, so his fantasy owners can’t be terribly
upset, but they likely expected more. Graham is reportedly expected
to miss the next two or three games with a shoulder injury, which
could slow down the offense tremendously, as Graham’s presence
in the middle of the field is vital to Sean Payton’s schemes.
The backup tight ends, veteran Ben Watson and youngster Josh Hill,
are uninspiring options, so the team will be looking for veteran
wide-out Marques Colston to step up and dominate the middle of
the field. It’s been a number of years since Colston has
been capable of doing that, though. Colston has only 15 catches
and one touchdown on the season. Rookie Brandin Cooks’ role,
which is already big for the Saints, could see a boost as well.
Cooks has elite level speed, and while the team has not taken
advantage of his deep speed (he’s averaging a mere 8 yards
per reception), he’s on pace for 102 receptions, which is
unheard of for a rookie. The team seems content to use him in
a Darren Sproles role while it uses Kenny Stills and Robert Meachem
to stretch the field.
The Lions’ defense has been dominant thus far. It is the
top- ranked defense overall and against the pass, allowing only
197.2 passing yards and 5 touchdowns per game, with 7 interceptions
in six games.
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints have run the ball effectively
this season. Their best running back, Mark Ingram, missed the
last three weeks with a hand injury but is expected to return
this week. Khiry Robinson ran very well in his place, so Ingram
may see less carries than he was earlier in the season, at least
until he shakes off the rust. Ingram is a little better suited
to gain the tough inside yards, while Robinson is a bit quicker,
but the two backs are fairly similar in style. Veteran Pierre
Thomas continues in his role as the third- down back and sees
his share of carries as well. Thomas is a “jack of all trades”
type runner and his value to this offense is highly under-rated.
Detroit has the second- ranked run defense in the league, allowing
only 73.5 yards per game and 3 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Tahir Whitehead has done a nice job replacing Stephen Tulloch,
sliding into his middle linebacker slot, but of course it’s
easier to play middle linebacker when your team has Ndamukong
Suh and Nick Fairly clogging up the middle of the defensive line.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Marques Colston: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandin Cooks: 110 rec yds
Ben Watson: 30 rec yds
Josh Hill: 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The lack of Johnson’s presence is
just as, if not more, damning to the Lions’ offense as Graham’s
loss is to the Saints. Matthew Stafford’s game is highly
dependent on throwing the ball to Johnson, perhaps more so than
any other quarterback/receiver relationship, so expectations for
the Lions’ passing game need to be lowered until “Megatron”
returns to health. Without Johnson, former Seahawk Golden Tate
has taken on a bigger role and has performed well, but the rest
of the supporting cast just isn’t pulling its weight. The
team will need rookie tight end Eric Ebron to step up as well,
but so far the rookie has struggled with drops and learning the
playbook.
The Saints’ arrival in Detroit should help Stafford survive
the loss of his security blanket, as they have really struggled
in pass defense. The Saints are allowing 267.6 passing yards per
game and 9 touchdown passes with only 1 interception through five
games. When you consider the team has faced Matt Cassell/Teddy
Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer and Mike Glennon in three of those contests,
the numbers look even worse.
Running Game Thoughts: Joique Bell returned to action last week
and found success against the Vikings, gaining 76 yards on the
ground with a score while also catching 2 balls for 23 yards.
He has been struggling in 2014, but last week he ran with the
power and determination that he showed in 2013. Reggie Bush is
expected to return to action this week, and Bell’s strong
performance should keep Bush in the more limited role he’s
been accustomed to in 2014. The Lions seem to see Bell as the
better option carrying the ball, while preferring to use Bush
more out in space.
The Saints have been above average in stopping opposing runners,
allowing 112 rushing yards per game and 5 rushing touchdowns.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 315 pass yds, 3 TDs, 15 rush yds
Joique
Bell: 85 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Reggie
Bush: 45 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Corey
Fuller: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden
Tate: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon
Pettigrew: 10 rec yds
Eric
Ebron: 45 rec yds
Prediction: Lions 27, Saints 20 ^ Top
Falcons v. Ravens
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan
struggled at home last week against a middle- of- the- road pass
defense. The Falcons’ offense generally plays well at home
but hasn’t fared as well on the road, which makes last week’s
performance all the more disturbing. So the prospects of the Falcons
being away from the Georgia Dome and playing outdoors against
a tough Ravens’ defense does not bode well for a rebound.
Julio Jones has arrived as one of the league’s top wide
receivers, and his 6’3”, 220- pound frame combined
with his outstanding speed makes him a difficult matchup. However,
with Roddy White aging and Tony Gonzalez retired, the passing
game isn’t as prolific as it was in the recent past. This
may lead some credence to those who felt that Matt Ryan’s
success was largely a result of his supporting cast and not necessarily
his talent.
The Ravens have allowed teams to move the ball through the air
against them, allowing 270.5 passing yards per game, but have
only yielded 6 passing touchdowns through six games, making them
a poor matchup for fantasy quarterbacks thus far. On a positive
note for Matt Ryan, who can be flustered at times, the team does
not generate much of a pass rush and has only managed 4 interceptions.
So Ryan should have time to find Jones and White and hope they
can make some plays for him.
Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons have continued to use a four-
man committee at running back this season, much to the dismay
of fantasy football players. Veteran Steven Jackson has led the
way, and while he has looked much stronger than last season, the
team is only giving him an average of 12 carries per game. Perhaps
this is an effort to help keep him healthy and fresh, as he was
banged up this preseason and is 31 years of age. Jacquizz Rodgers
has handled the change- of- pace and third- down role, while rookie
Devonta Freeman and Antone Smith are sprinkled in as well. If
anyone has earned a bigger piece of the pie, it’s Smith.
He has scored 5 touchdowns this season, all coming on long plays,
and is averaging 9.7 yards per carry and 22 yards per reception.
Even if those numbers are inflated due to small sample sizes,
the veteran back has been a playmaker in an offense that is short
on them.
It will be tough sledding for the Falcons on the ground, as the
Ravens are allowing only 90.7 yards per game and have only allowed
3 rushing touchdowns in six games. While stranger things have
happened, expectations should be set low for the Falcons’
rushing attack, putting more pressure on Matt Ryan and the passing
game.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Steven
Jackson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Jacquizz
Rodgers: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Antone
Smith: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy
White: 55 rec yds
Julio
Jones: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry
Douglas: 50 rec yds
Levine
Toilolo: 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco
exploded last week in Tampa Bay for over 300 yards passing and
5 touchdowns. Most of the damage, and all of the touchdowns, came
in the first half of the game, as the Ravens cruised to an easy
win. Torrey Smith, who had been non-existent in the offense prior
to the game, finally broke out with 51 yards and the game’s
first two touchdowns. However, it’s veteran Steve Smith
who has been the true star of the passing game. The left- for-
dead former Panther has put up a 35-573-4 statline in six games
after a full season statline of 64-745-4 in 2013. The fountain
of youth apparently lies in the Baltimore Harbor.
The Falcons allow 277.6 passing yards per game but have only allowed
6 touchdown passes on the season. The Falcons have no real pass
rush to speak of, so Flacco should have time in the pocket to
find his speedy Smiths downfield.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett, who effectively
occupied the third- down, change- of- pace role earlier in the
season, has earned the majority of the backfield carries since
Bernard Pierce was forced to miss time with a groin injury. Pierce
has been an afterthought since his return, also losing carries
to massive rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro, but he was given a goal-line
carry last week, which he converted. The Ravens have looked to
establish the run against their opponents in order to open up
the passing game in most of their games, and the offense has been
much more effective than it was in 2013. Against a very suspect
Falcons run defense, the team will likely seek to continue with
a dominant rushing attack.
The Falcons have not shown much as a rush defense, allowing 141.3
yards and an incredible 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. Leaning
on the running game and allowing Flacco to return to a lesser
role this week would seem like a wise strategy unless the team
falls behind early.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 215 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 5 rush yd
Bernard
Pierce: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Justin
Forsett: 95 rush yds, 35 rec yards
Torrey
Smith: 45 rec yds
Steve
Smith: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen
Daniels: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Ravens 27, Flacons 24 ^ Top
Panthers at Packers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton’s
ankle hasn’t been 100percent this season, and he was limited
to a mere 14 carries heading into last week’s game at Cincinnati.
Newton, however, gained 107 yards and scored a touchdown on 17
carries in that game. He also had his best passing game of the
season, putting up 284 yards and 2 touchdowns. Of course, the
passing touchdowns went to Cam’s top two targets, rookie
Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen. Benjamin has quickly
become Newton’s go- to receiver, and he has shown tremendous
ability to separate and fight off defenders for such a young wide
receiver. Benjamin apparently suffered a mild concussion at some
point and is being held out of practice but is expected to be
able to play in Week 7. Dependable veterans Jerricho Cotchery
and Jason Avant provide additional targets but are not fantasy
assets even if Benjamin is forced to miss this game. Newton is
coming off back-to-back excellent games, and the Panthers’
passing game has finally gotten off the ground. As Newton’s
ankle and ribs improve even more, things should only get better.
The Packers 5th- ranked pass defense should present a challenge
to the Panthers’ resurgent passing attack. The Packers are
allowing 213.5 passing yards per game and have allowed 7 passing
touchdowns.
Running Game Thoughts: Veterans DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart
and Mike Tolbert have all been inactive with injuries over the
last two weeks, but Stewart should return this week. UDFA Darren
Reaves has been uninspiring the last two weeks, so the team should
be happy to see the oft- injured Stewart back behind the line.
Stewart at one time looked like one of the more talented running
backs in the league, but a long history of lower leg injuries
have robbed him of the exceptional burst and speed that once belied
his huge frame. Still he should be far more effective than Reaves
or the practice- squad- level talents the team has been forced
to have to carry the football in recent weeks.
The Packers have been run over by opposing backs this season,
allowing a league- worst 154.5 yards per game. This should be
a good team for Stewart to get some run against before he inevitably
gets himself injured again.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 265 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yd, 1 TD
Darrin Reaves: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jonathan Stewart: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 65 rec yards, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 45 rec yds
Jason Avant: 25 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 60 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers
and the Packers’ offense started off slowly but has gotten
on a big- time roll since halftime of their Week 2 game against
the New York Jets. In the last five games, Rodgers has thrown
for 14 touchdowns with only a single interception . Jordy Nelson
has been the biggest beneficiary. He has 43 receptions for 632
yards and 5 touchdowns. Rookie Davante Adams has been coming on
strong after replacing Jarrett Boykin as the team’s WR3,
adding a new dimension to the offense and opening things up for
Randall Cobb to work in space. Andrew Quarless isn’t flashy,
but his dependable hands and route running has put him ahead of
the other tight ends on the roster, and last week he caught the
game- winning touchdown as time was running out.
The Panthers have been beatable through the air, allowing 252.3
passing yards per game, and have given up 12 passing touchdowns
on the season. The Panthers’ front seven is ferocious with
13 sacks on the season, and the Green Bay offensive line has not
been all that solid. Rodgers can hide a lot of warts that his
line possesses, but expect the team to try to use its running
game and screen game to slow the Panthers’ pass rush on
Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: In an earlier column I had at least partially
attributed Eddie Lacy’s slow start to the season to the
fact that he had faced three top- 5 ranked run defenses in his
first three starts: the Seahawks, Jets and Lions. While there
is still truth to that, the fact is that Lacy looks far heavier
than last season and, as a result, far less explosive. The Packers
have seen opponents’ lineman and linebackers simply manhandle
their blockers, giving Lacy little chance, but the fact remains
that Lacy is not making anything happen, either. I don’t
have much hope for a turnaround in this running game.
The Panthers surprisingly haven’t had a tough run defense,
allowing 140.2 yards per game with 6 touchdowns. However, that
does include an apparent outlier game against Pittsburgh, where
they gave up 264 yards on the ground – so the small sample
size may be coming into play here. The team is extremely strong
up the middle with Star Lotulelei, Luke Kuechley and Thomas Davis,
so it should be expected that this run defense will come around
soon.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 315 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Eddie
Lacy: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
James
Starks: 35 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Jordy
Nelson: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall
Cobb: 75 rec yds
Davante
Adams: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew
Quarless: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Packers 31, Panthers 24 ^ Top
Texans vs. Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Journeyman
Ryan Fitzpatrick, as expected, hasn’t been spectacular,
but he is a tough fiery leader and has led the team to more wins
after six games than it had all of last season. Fitzpatrick lacks
the arm strength to get the ball downfield or execute sideline
out patterns effectively or consistently, but he has above average
mobility and is fairly accurate on short throws. He’s working
with good weapons in veteran star Andre Johnson, who may have
lost a step or two but is still effective, and third- year emerging
star DeAndre Hopkins, the team’s former first- round pick.
Running back Arian Foster is also very adept in the passing game.
This is a team, for the time being at least, that is content with
playing great defense and employing a ball control conservative
offense. It’s hard to expect big numbers form the passing
game.
The Steelers’ aging defense has managed to be effective
against the pass, allowing 225.8 yards per game with 8 touchdowns
through six games. Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau still has
a creative defensive mind and the secondary does not lack in talent,
so the results shouldn’t be all that surprising. The team
only has 9 sacks on the season but would be well- served to find
ways to pressure Fitzpatrick, who has been prone to turning the
ball over.
Running Game Thoughts: Foster missed one game with a hamstring
injury but has otherwise looked like vintage Foster, rushing for
513 yards and 5 touchdowns in five games and adding a 131 yards
through the air. Foster’s upright running style makes it
appear as if he’s moving in slow motion at times, but the
reality is that he can turn the corner and get up-field as quick
as any back in the league, while possessing the power to break
tackles or move a pile. Behind Foster, the team has rookie Alfred
Blue, who is strikingly similar to the veteran Foster. Blue performed
well when called upon in Foster’s absence but doesn’t
see much opportunity when the workhorse is active.
The Steelers are only allowing 111.2 yards per game on the ground,
despite losing promising rookie Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones
for multiple weeks to injury. It’s likely that the Texans’
rushing attack will be the focus of the Steelers’ defense
this week, as the team cannot fear Fitzpatrick’s deep ball.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 35 rush yds
Arian Foster: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Alfred Blue: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 40 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger
is coming off of his worst game of the season in a loss to the
Cleveland Browns. Roethlisberger completed only 50percent of his
passes for 228 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The
Pittsburgh offense has been stalling in the red-zone in recent
weeks, as the passing game has completely stalled, and Offensive
Coordinator Todd Haley has refused to run the ball near the goalline.
Antonio Brown has clearly been the focal point of the passing
offense and has excelled in the role, but the team desperately
needs someone else to step up, and so far second- year player
Markus Wheaton has not seized the opportunity, and Justin Brown
and veteran Lance Moore are adequate, at best, options behind
him.
The Texans may get Jadeveon Clowney back this week, which can
only help a Texans team that can pressure the quarterback but
hasn’t landed enough sacks. If Clowney can take pressure
off of JJ Watt, opposing quarterbacks will be in a world of trouble.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell has arguably been the
best running back in the league this season behind the Cowboys’
DeMarco Murray but has only found the endzone once this season,
in Week 1. Bell lost 20 pounds over the offseason, maintaining
his power and quick feet but adding more agility and straight-
line speed into the mix. Bell is averaging 5.2 yards per carry
and also excels in the passing game, with 28 receptions for 251
yards on the season. Bulldozer LeGarrette Bount has been worked
into the mix to spell Bell at times and has been used as a short-
yardage back. The team inexplicably has not run the ball consistently
in the red-zone despite the passing game struggles inside the
20- yard line. Once the team realizes that having two backs over
220 pounds gives it an advantage at the strip, it will be better
off as an offense.
Houston has not displayed a dominant run defense thus far, allowing
125.7 rushing yards per game, but has only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns
through six weeks. The fact that 4 of their top 5 leading tacklers
play in the secondary should tell opposing offensive coordinators
that running the ball against the Texans just may not be such
a bad strategy.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 255 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Le’Veon
Bell: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 44 rec yds
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Antonio Brown: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Justin Brown: 25 rec yds
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 20, Texans 17 ^ Top
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