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Inside the Matchup
Super Bowl
1/26/15

By: Sal Marcoccio | Brian Thorne | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith




 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Caron 48 17 73.8
2 Marcoccio 47 18 72.3
3 Smith 46 19 70.8
4 Thorne 38 27 58.5

Editor's Note: The Big Game is so big we've got two analysts giving their thoughts on the game.

Patriots at Seahawks - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: After averaging 258 passing yards per game in the regular season, in two playoff contests New England has increased that mark to 314 while racking up decisive victories. All controversies aside, QB Tom Brady has thrown for three touchdowns and completed 66% of his passes in each game this postseason. With a victory on Sunday Brady will earn a record-tying fourth Super Bowl ring and will cement his place as one of the, if not the unquestioned, best quarterbacks of all time. Unlike recent unsuccessful campaigns he will have a full complement of receivers available for the big game, including a fully healthy TE Rob Gronkowski who is quite possibly the single most difficult man to defend in the league. On the season he led the team in receiving yards, receiving average, and touchdown catches, and was far and away the best fantasy player at his position. After a slow start he seems to be peaking at the right time, and including the playoffs has scored a touchdown in five straight games. In addition, WR Julian Edelman (hip) appears to have benefited from the time off and is Probable for Sunday, and the deep threat of WR Brandon LaFell will continue to open up the field for both Gronkowski and Edelman.

Though the Seahawks secondary is unchanged from their 2012 matchup, the remainder of the defense and most of the Patriots offense has changed impressively. Perhaps more importantly, this time the game will be played at a neutral site as opposed to the raucous environment of Seattle where their last matchup took place. Excluding a garbage-time score, this postseason the Seahawks have given up only two passing touchdowns in their two playoff victories. The Legion of Boom forced two interceptions in each of those games, and after giving up a miniscule 186 passing yards per game during the year, their postseason mark of 212 is equally impressive. Despite statistically dominating the passing game on defense, the offensive counterparts for Seattle struggled for portions of each playoff contest, and the concern going into Sunday is that any deficiencies on offense will result in additional attempts for Brady and company. With both CB Richard Sherman (elbow) and S Earl Thomas (shoulder) dealing with injuries which severely limited them in the latter stages of the Conference Championship, the combination of increased throwing opportunities and a banged-up secondary could potentially spell disaster for a Seahawks team which prides themselves on stopping the pass.

Running Game Thoughts: Even with a quarterback who is undoubtedly headed for Canton when his career reaches its conclusion, New England is a team predicated on their ability to run the ball. Even including the meaningless season finale, in the four games the Patriots lost this year they averaged only 91 rushing yards per contest, compared to 114 in the remaining 12 games. For the playoffs their mark is deceiving, with 177 yards on 40 attempts in a Conference Championship blowout, and a meager 14 yards on 13 attempts in the Divisional round. In the latter Brady recorded nearly half of the attempts for a total of zero yards, leaving just seven carries by running backs in the entire game. Though usually not that dramatic of a swing, New England has shown great ability to change their game plan on a weekly basis. Beyond that, they’ve seemed to swap out their primary ball carrier at random, sometimes featuring RB LaGarrette Blount and other times electing to go with RB Jonas Gray. In the most recent contest it was Blount who saw the majority of the work, with 30 touches for 148 yards and three touchdowns. For the Super Bowl the workload is most uncertain, but Blount has been the hottest hand most recently so he gets the early nod from a prediction standpoint.

One major factor which will determine how much the Patriots run versus how much they throw is the ability of the defense to stop them. Seattle finished the season as a top three run defense and allowed more rushing touchdowns than just four other teams, but they frequently struggled against opponents who could establish a strong ground game. They lost four games this year, gave up at least 100 rushing yards in each and averaged 139 yards against in that quartet, compared to allowing just 62 per game in victory. Including the playoffs Seattle won four of their games by six or fewer points, and in half of those contests their opponents rushed for at least 114 yards. The goal for New England should be to run the ball early and often, to either wear down the front seven and make gains on the ground, or to encourage the secondary into man coverage where Brady hopes to take advantage of the mismatch. Using Blount, Gray, or some combination thereof, the Patriots have a power running game which can cause fits for Seattle and if nothing else will be used to set up the play action pass.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs
LeGarrette Blount: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonas Gray: 35 rush yds
Julian Edelman: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 50 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: With respect to passing yards, Seattle is the only playoff team who finished outside of the top 20 in the regular season, though few signal callers in the league had a better per attempt average than QB Russell Wilson. He averaged just 203 yards per game during the year, has a similar mark in the playoffs, and needed every last one of the 209 he earned in the Conference Championship as he completed a 35-yard shot to score in overtime. The limited yardage led to no Seahawks pass catcher recording more than 825 yards during the regular season and all but one being held below 540 through the air. The most frequent visitor to then endzone was the starting running back, and he only earned four receiving touchdowns. Two other pass catchers recorded a trio of scores through the air, and those ten combined scores account for half of the receiving touchdowns converted by Seattle receivers. In the playoffs, Wilson has struggled mightily, completing just 57% of his passes and recording as many touchdowns as interceptions. Compared to the Super Bowl run last year the Seahawks signal caller is being asked to do more as a passer, and as a result it seems to generally be working against the strength of the offense.

The receiving corps has been critiqued all season as lacking a true deep threat and arguably any legitimate playmaker, but they seem to always find a way to step up when they’re most needed. In the Conference Championship the Seahawks were held out of the endzone until a fake fieldgoal after halftime, then required two scores in the final minutes of the game to take the lead, only to have to win the game in overtime on a deep pass. In preparing for the Super Bowl the Patriots should be cognoscente of the passing game even if it is widely underutilized and largely underwhelming, because of the big plays that Seattle is frequently able to use to swing momentum in their favor. New England was one of only two teams this year to not allow a passing play of greater than 50 yards; they also ranked better than average for interceptions forced, sacks recorded, touchdowns allowed, and yards yielded per attempt. The Patriots are likely to try to force Seattle into passing situations and will look to take advantage of the apparent discomfort the offense has with relying on the aerial attack.

Running Game Thoughts: Regardless, and almost in spite, of game situation, the Seahawks are going to run the ball. Even after being manhandled for more than 50 minutes in their latest contest, Seattle refused to abandon the ground game. With another workhorse performance from RB Marshawn Lynch the Seahawks were able to force their way into the lead with seconds remaining in the game, overcoming two different double-digit deficits. They recorded more rushing attempts, significantly more rushing yards, and more rushing touchdowns than their opponent, despite Wilson throwing four interceptions and the team losing a fumble. The physical identity of the team begins with Lynch in the backfield, includes Wilson being a capable runner of his own, and extends to the defensive side of the ball, which prides themselves on delivering crushing blows. For the year there was no one better on the ground than Seattle, leading the way in all major rushing categories. In the postseason their dominance is less evident but still quite present, with possible competition coming from a team they already dispatched as well as the team which is their next opponent. Because they found a way to win by playing their own style of football, the Seahawks will head into Sunday looking to assert their dominance on the field and become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl Champions in the last decade.

Back in 2005 it was Brady and the Patriots who turned in back-to-back Championship seasons, so regardless of outcome this game will include a certain poetic symmetry to it; either Wilson becomes the next to repeat by beating the man who did it last, or Brady defends the honor by coming away with a victory of his own. Neither figures to be center of the run game however, where Lynch will be the primary ball carrier and the Patriots top ten defense will try to contain him. New England gave up the second fewest rushing scores in the regular season and has allowed just one touchdown on the ground in two playoff games. Though less physical in the secondary, the Patriots defense reasonably resembles that of their opponent, and as such Seattle will be even more inclined to lean on the rushing attack. In the four games New England lost this season they surrendered and average of 158 yards on the ground, compared to just 86 when they won the contest. The Seahawks are at their best when they run, including when Wilson is able to scramble for chunks of yardage, so above all else it should be their ability, or lack thereof, to run the ball which most directly determines the winner of Super Bowl XLIX.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 30 rush yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Marshawn Lynch: 75 rush yds, 1 TD
Robert Turbin: 10 rush yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 45 rec yds
Luke Willson: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Patriots 27, Seahawks 14 ^ Top

Seahawks at Patriots - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The top two seeds will meet up in the Super Bowl for the first time since…..last season. Russell Wilson, coming off arguably his worst game as a professional, will head to his second Super Bowl in his third season in the league. Wilson completed just 48% of his passes with four interceptions, before turning it around late in the fourth quarter to lead his team to an improbable come from behind victory in the NFC Championship game. In fairness, two of his four interceptions bounced off the hands of wide receiver Jermaine Kearse and into the hands of a Packers’ defender, and the four interceptions were only three less than he threw all season. In other words, Patriot fans should not be expecting Wilson to be turnover happy again. The aforementioned Kearse, was actually Wilson’s intended target on all four of the interceptions, however, like Wilson, Kearse was able to redeem himself catching a 35-yard touchdown pass in overtime with defensive back Tramon Williams draped all over him. Kearse is likely the most physically gifted receiver for Seattle, but their most dependable target is former Stanford wideout Doug Baldwin. Baldwin is a fine route runner with sure hands and the ability to gain yards after the catch, but isn’t a typical WR1 at only 5’10” and 189 pounds with only average speed and quickness. But then again, Seattle isn’t your typical passing offense in today’s NFL, as the team’s bread and butter is its running game, where quarterback Russell Wilson also plays a major role. Wilson is as smart as they come in the pocket and unless it’s a designed run, he generally doesn’t take off unless he gets pressured or cannot find an open man. However, Wilson rushed for 849 yards and 6 touchdowns during the regular season on scrambles as well as on read-option plays and other designed runs making him one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks. Teams try and mitigate Wilson’s rushing ability by using a “spy” which can make life a little easier for Wilson when he does throw the ball.

Bill Belichick is known to game plan to take away an opposing offense’s best weapon. So while it’s hard to say whether he will assign a spy to Wilson, my guess is that he will and the Patriots are one of the teams that can do so effectively. Kearse and Baldwin shouldn’t cause problems for a Patriots secondary led by their upper level cornerback tandem, Darrelle Revis and former Seahawk Brandon Browner. Revis is still one of the top corners and Browner is one of the more physical corners in the league and the pair should be able to handle the Hawks wideouts mostly in single coverage. This will allow Belichick to employ a spy to keep Wilson under containment and in the pocket, where he’s still a threat but far less dangerous. The Seahawks like to use their running game to force opposing safeties up towards the line of scrimmage so that they can use the play-action game to take shots downfield. If the Seahawks are able to get this working, Wilson may be able to take advantage of the single coverages, especially on Browner who is likely to be matched up with the more physical Kearse. Browner is capable of being beat when his receiver can get past the jam at the line and Kearse has shown an ability to get deep and make big plays.

Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks offense has relied on its running game since Pete Carroll came back to the NFL and Marshawn Lynch, of course, has been the backbone of that philosophy. “Beastmode” is the perfect running back to carry the workload the team demands as his punishing style wears down a defense during the course of the game, allowing him to use his deceptive speed to break long runs. Lynch ran for 157 yards and a score against Green Bay in the NFC Championship game showing all the traits that he’s known for, punishing defenders, pushing piles and breaking big plays in key moments. The Hawks aren’t likely to move away from the offensive play calling that has carried them to their recent success. Only the Houston Texans ran the ball more in 2014, and Seattle was one of only four teams that ran the ball more than they passed it with a 525:454 run to pass ratio. The offensive line has been underrated and their size and strength also helps wear down the defense along with Lynch’s hard running. If the Pats can stop the run, Seattle’s odds of repeating as champions will go down considerably.

Seattle’s game plan will be tested against a strong Patriots’ run defense. New England only allowed 104.3 rushing yards per game and six rushing touchdowns during the regular season. The Colts barely attempted to run the ball in the AFC Championship game as they were in a huge hole for most of the game, but Justin Forsett was able to gain 129 yards on the ground in the divisional round. Belichick and his defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will be studying film and looking to find ways to stop the run, but the battle of the trenches will tell the tale on Super Bowl Sunday.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 Int., 65 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 45 rec yds,
Luke Willson: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The blueprint for beating the Patriots is well established and the Seahawks may be well equipped to carry it out. When opposing teams are able to get pressure up the middle, knocking Tom Brady around and forcing him to get rid of the ball quickly, he doesn’t look like the Hall of Famer that he surely will be. Of course just having the blueprint obviously doesn’t make following the plan easy. The Ravens held Brady and the passing game in check for much of their divisional round matchup, but when the game was on the line, Brady came through, as usual, leading his team to a late go-ahead score on a pass to Brandon LaFell in the corner of the endzone. In the AFC Championship game, the Patriots controlled the game on the ground but Brady still managed to throw for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Brady is a surgeon that can pick apart a defense, and has mastered a system which puts his targets in the perfect spot to beat their opponent. And those targets are all amongst the best at what they do. Julian Edelman has seamlessly replaced former Patriot and Brady security blanket Wes Welker catching 92 balls this season after catching 105 the season before. He helps keep the chains moving and opens up the field for one of the best weapons in the league, tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Gronk was unanimously named to the All-Pro team this year after putting up an 82-1124-12 stat-line despite getting off to a slow start due to off-season ACL surgery. Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare due to his size, speed and athleticism. While the offense still lacks a true deep speed receiver to stretch the defense, former Panther underachiever Brandon LaFell has done a fine job on the outside adding 74 receptions for 953 yards and 7 touchdowns. The lack of traditional receiving targets should help nullify one of the league’s best corners in Richard Sherman as the team could make Danny Amendola, or even LaFell at times, the sacrificial lamb on Sherman’s side of the field and not miss a beat offensively.

If the Seahawks are unable to put pressure on Brady and throw him off his game, it will be a much tougher task for them to stop the likes of Gronkowski and Edelman, despite Gronkowski only being “OK” according to cornerback Jeremy Lane. The Seahawks were the league’s best passing defense once again in 2014, allowing 185.6 passing yards per game. Without trying to take too much away from Seattle it should be noted that they did get to matchup with some very poor quarterbacks this season, but they can surely get the job done even against the best quarterbacks in the league. The Seahawks, however, finished the season with only 37 sacks, which was slightly below the league average, and as previously stated that could be a serious disadvantage if they don’t get creative for this matchup in order to find ways to get to the quarteback.

Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots rushing attack shouldn’t be a major player in this matchup, as they will be running into a brick wall of a defense and lack any dynamic runners. Shane Vereen can be an explosive player but only rushed for 391 yards on the season, as the Patriots prefer to use him as a pass catcher. Outside of Vereen, the Patriots will trot out two similar hard charging power backs in veteran LaGarrette Blount and first year player Jonas Gray. Last week Blount followed the Patriots usual game plan against the Colts and bludgeoned them with his no-nonsense running style. Blount rushed for 148 yards and three scores against an overmatched Colts defense. It would be hard to imagine the team using a similar game plan this week, against a team that has Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, K.J. Wright and Earl Thomas in the heart of its defense. Expect Blount to see 10-12 carries to keep the defense honest, but for the Patriots chances to rest with Brady and the passing game.

Bobby Wagner’s Week 12 return from injury after missing the previous five games helped turn around what was looking like a disappointing season for Seattle. The defense started looking like the dominating unit it was in the previous season over those last six games. Seattle allowed only 81.5 rushing yards per game this season (third fewest in the NFL). Belichick and his staff are famous for looking to exploit the opposing team’s biggest weakness, which is easier said than done against the Seahawks, but the forcing the running isn’t likely to be his main priority.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Shane Vereen: 15 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 30 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 90 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 17 ^ Top