Predictions - YTD
|
Rk |
Staffer |
W |
L |
% |
1 |
Caron |
48 |
17 |
73.8 |
2 |
Marcoccio |
47 |
18 |
72.3 |
3 |
Smith |
46 |
19 |
70.8 |
4 |
Thorne |
38 |
27 |
58.5 |
|
Editor's Note: The
Big Game is so big we've got two analysts giving their thoughts
on the game.
Patriots at
Seahawks - (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: After averaging 258 passing yards per game
in the regular season, in two playoff contests New England has
increased that mark to 314 while racking up decisive victories.
All controversies aside, QB Tom Brady has thrown for three touchdowns
and completed 66% of his passes in each game this postseason.
With a victory on Sunday Brady will earn a record-tying fourth
Super Bowl ring and will cement his place as one of the, if not
the unquestioned, best quarterbacks of all time. Unlike recent
unsuccessful campaigns he will have a full complement of receivers
available for the big game, including a fully healthy TE Rob Gronkowski
who is quite possibly the single most difficult man to defend
in the league. On the season he led the team in receiving yards,
receiving average, and touchdown catches, and was far and away
the best fantasy player at his position. After a slow start he
seems to be peaking at the right time, and including the playoffs
has scored a touchdown in five straight games. In addition, WR
Julian Edelman (hip) appears to have benefited from the time off
and is Probable for Sunday, and the deep threat of WR Brandon
LaFell will continue to open up the field for both Gronkowski
and Edelman.
Though the Seahawks secondary is unchanged from their 2012 matchup,
the remainder of the defense and most of the Patriots offense
has changed impressively. Perhaps more importantly, this time
the game will be played at a neutral site as opposed to the raucous
environment of Seattle where their last matchup took place. Excluding
a garbage-time score, this postseason the Seahawks have given
up only two passing touchdowns in their two playoff victories.
The Legion of Boom forced two interceptions in each of those games,
and after giving up a miniscule 186 passing yards per game during
the year, their postseason mark of 212 is equally impressive.
Despite statistically dominating the passing game on defense,
the offensive counterparts for Seattle struggled for portions
of each playoff contest, and the concern going into Sunday is
that any deficiencies on offense will result in additional attempts
for Brady and company. With both CB Richard Sherman (elbow) and
S Earl Thomas (shoulder) dealing with injuries which severely
limited them in the latter stages of the Conference Championship,
the combination of increased throwing opportunities and a banged-up
secondary could potentially spell disaster for a Seahawks team
which prides themselves on stopping the pass.
Running Game Thoughts: Even with a quarterback who is undoubtedly
headed for Canton when his career reaches its conclusion, New
England is a team predicated on their ability to run the ball.
Even including the meaningless season finale, in the four games
the Patriots lost this year they averaged only 91 rushing yards
per contest, compared to 114 in the remaining 12 games. For the
playoffs their mark is deceiving, with 177 yards on 40 attempts
in a Conference Championship blowout, and a meager 14 yards on
13 attempts in the Divisional round. In the latter Brady recorded
nearly half of the attempts for a total of zero yards, leaving
just seven carries by running backs in the entire game. Though
usually not that dramatic of a swing, New England has shown great
ability to change their game plan on a weekly basis. Beyond that,
they’ve seemed to swap out their primary ball carrier at
random, sometimes featuring RB LaGarrette Blount and other times
electing to go with RB Jonas Gray. In the most recent contest
it was Blount who saw the majority of the work, with 30 touches
for 148 yards and three touchdowns. For the Super Bowl the workload
is most uncertain, but Blount has been the hottest hand most recently
so he gets the early nod from a prediction standpoint.
One major factor which will determine how much the Patriots run
versus how much they throw is the ability of the defense to stop
them. Seattle finished the season as a top three run defense and
allowed more rushing touchdowns than just four other teams, but
they frequently struggled against opponents who could establish
a strong ground game. They lost four games this year, gave up
at least 100 rushing yards in each and averaged 139 yards against
in that quartet, compared to allowing just 62 per game in victory.
Including the playoffs Seattle won four of their games by six
or fewer points, and in half of those contests their opponents
rushed for at least 114 yards. The goal for New England should
be to run the ball early and often, to either wear down the front
seven and make gains on the ground, or to encourage the secondary
into man coverage where Brady hopes to take advantage of the mismatch.
Using Blount, Gray, or some combination thereof, the Patriots
have a power running game which can cause fits for Seattle and
if nothing else will be used to set up the play action pass.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs
LeGarrette Blount: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonas Gray: 35 rush yds
Julian Edelman: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 50 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: With respect to passing yards, Seattle is
the only playoff team who finished outside of the top 20 in the
regular season, though few signal callers in the league had a
better per attempt average than QB Russell Wilson. He averaged
just 203 yards per game during the year, has a similar mark in
the playoffs, and needed every last one of the 209 he earned in
the Conference Championship as he completed a 35-yard shot to
score in overtime. The limited yardage led to no Seahawks pass
catcher recording more than 825 yards during the regular season
and all but one being held below 540 through the air. The most
frequent visitor to then endzone was the starting running back,
and he only earned four receiving touchdowns. Two other pass catchers
recorded a trio of scores through the air, and those ten combined
scores account for half of the receiving touchdowns converted
by Seattle receivers. In the playoffs, Wilson has struggled mightily,
completing just 57% of his passes and recording as many touchdowns
as interceptions. Compared to the Super Bowl run last year the
Seahawks signal caller is being asked to do more as a passer,
and as a result it seems to generally be working against the strength
of the offense.
The receiving corps has been critiqued all season as lacking
a true deep threat and arguably any legitimate playmaker, but
they seem to always find a way to step up when they’re most
needed. In the Conference Championship the Seahawks were held
out of the endzone until a fake fieldgoal after halftime, then
required two scores in the final minutes of the game to take the
lead, only to have to win the game in overtime on a deep pass.
In preparing for the Super Bowl the Patriots should be cognoscente
of the passing game even if it is widely underutilized and largely
underwhelming, because of the big plays that Seattle is frequently
able to use to swing momentum in their favor. New England was
one of only two teams this year to not allow a passing play of
greater than 50 yards; they also ranked better than average for
interceptions forced, sacks recorded, touchdowns allowed, and
yards yielded per attempt. The Patriots are likely to try to force
Seattle into passing situations and will look to take advantage
of the apparent discomfort the offense has with relying on the
aerial attack.
Running Game Thoughts: Regardless, and almost in spite, of game
situation, the Seahawks are going to run the ball. Even after
being manhandled for more than 50 minutes in their latest contest,
Seattle refused to abandon the ground game. With another workhorse
performance from RB Marshawn Lynch the Seahawks were able to force
their way into the lead with seconds remaining in the game, overcoming
two different double-digit deficits. They recorded more rushing
attempts, significantly more rushing yards, and more rushing touchdowns
than their opponent, despite Wilson throwing four interceptions
and the team losing a fumble. The physical identity of the team
begins with Lynch in the backfield, includes Wilson being a capable
runner of his own, and extends to the defensive side of the ball,
which prides themselves on delivering crushing blows. For the
year there was no one better on the ground than Seattle, leading
the way in all major rushing categories. In the postseason their
dominance is less evident but still quite present, with possible
competition coming from a team they already dispatched as well
as the team which is their next opponent. Because they found a
way to win by playing their own style of football, the Seahawks
will head into Sunday looking to assert their dominance on the
field and become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl Champions
in the last decade.
Back in 2005 it was Brady and the Patriots who turned in back-to-back
Championship seasons, so regardless of outcome this game will
include a certain poetic symmetry to it; either Wilson becomes
the next to repeat by beating the man who did it last, or Brady
defends the honor by coming away with a victory of his own. Neither
figures to be center of the run game however, where Lynch will
be the primary ball carrier and the Patriots top ten defense will
try to contain him. New England gave up the second fewest rushing
scores in the regular season and has allowed just one touchdown
on the ground in two playoff games. Though less physical in the
secondary, the Patriots defense reasonably resembles that of their
opponent, and as such Seattle will be even more inclined to lean
on the rushing attack. In the four games New England lost this
season they surrendered and average of 158 yards on the ground,
compared to just 86 when they won the contest. The Seahawks are
at their best when they run, including when Wilson is able to
scramble for chunks of yardage, so above all else it should be
their ability, or lack thereof, to run the ball which most directly
determines the winner of Super Bowl XLIX.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 30 rush yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Marshawn Lynch: 75 rush yds, 1 TD
Robert Turbin: 10 rush yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 45 rec yds
Luke Willson: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Patriots 27, Seahawks 14 ^ Top
Seahawks at Patriots
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: The top two seeds will meet up in the Super
Bowl for the first time since…..last season. Russell Wilson,
coming off arguably his worst game as a professional, will head
to his second Super Bowl in his third season in the league. Wilson
completed just 48% of his passes with four interceptions, before
turning it around late in the fourth quarter to lead his team
to an improbable come from behind victory in the NFC Championship
game. In fairness, two of his four interceptions bounced off the
hands of wide receiver Jermaine Kearse and into the hands of a
Packers’ defender, and the four interceptions were only
three less than he threw all season. In other words, Patriot fans
should not be expecting Wilson to be turnover happy again. The
aforementioned Kearse, was actually Wilson’s intended target
on all four of the interceptions, however, like Wilson, Kearse
was able to redeem himself catching a 35-yard touchdown pass in
overtime with defensive back Tramon Williams draped all over him.
Kearse is likely the most physically gifted receiver for Seattle,
but their most dependable target is former Stanford wideout Doug
Baldwin. Baldwin is a fine route runner with sure hands and the
ability to gain yards after the catch, but isn’t a typical
WR1 at only 5’10” and 189 pounds with only average
speed and quickness. But then again, Seattle isn’t your
typical passing offense in today’s NFL, as the team’s
bread and butter is its running game, where quarterback Russell
Wilson also plays a major role. Wilson is as smart as they come
in the pocket and unless it’s a designed run, he generally
doesn’t take off unless he gets pressured or cannot find
an open man. However, Wilson rushed for 849 yards and 6 touchdowns
during the regular season on scrambles as well as on read-option
plays and other designed runs making him one of the league’s
most dangerous quarterbacks. Teams try and mitigate Wilson’s
rushing ability by using a “spy” which can make life
a little easier for Wilson when he does throw the ball.
Bill Belichick is known to game plan to take away an opposing
offense’s best weapon. So while it’s hard to say whether
he will assign a spy to Wilson, my guess is that he will and the
Patriots are one of the teams that can do so effectively. Kearse
and Baldwin shouldn’t cause problems for a Patriots secondary
led by their upper level cornerback tandem, Darrelle Revis and
former Seahawk Brandon Browner. Revis is still one of the top
corners and Browner is one of the more physical corners in the
league and the pair should be able to handle the Hawks wideouts
mostly in single coverage. This will allow Belichick to employ
a spy to keep Wilson under containment and in the pocket, where
he’s still a threat but far less dangerous. The Seahawks
like to use their running game to force opposing safeties up towards
the line of scrimmage so that they can use the play-action game
to take shots downfield. If the Seahawks are able to get this
working, Wilson may be able to take advantage of the single coverages,
especially on Browner who is likely to be matched up with the
more physical Kearse. Browner is capable of being beat when his
receiver can get past the jam at the line and Kearse has shown
an ability to get deep and make big plays.
Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks offense has relied on its
running game since Pete Carroll came back to the NFL and Marshawn
Lynch, of course, has been the backbone of that philosophy. “Beastmode”
is the perfect running back to carry the workload the team demands
as his punishing style wears down a defense during the course
of the game, allowing him to use his deceptive speed to break
long runs. Lynch ran for 157 yards and a score against Green Bay
in the NFC Championship game showing all the traits that he’s
known for, punishing defenders, pushing piles and breaking big
plays in key moments. The Hawks aren’t likely to move away
from the offensive play calling that has carried them to their
recent success. Only the Houston Texans ran the ball more in 2014,
and Seattle was one of only four teams that ran the ball more
than they passed it with a 525:454 run to pass ratio. The offensive
line has been underrated and their size and strength also helps
wear down the defense along with Lynch’s hard running. If
the Pats can stop the run, Seattle’s odds of repeating as
champions will go down considerably.
Seattle’s game plan will be tested against a strong Patriots’
run defense. New England only allowed 104.3 rushing yards per
game and six rushing touchdowns during the regular season. The
Colts barely attempted to run the ball in the AFC Championship
game as they were in a huge hole for most of the game, but Justin
Forsett was able to gain 129 yards on the ground in the divisional
round. Belichick and his defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will
be studying film and looking to find ways to stop the run, but
the battle of the trenches will tell the tale on Super Bowl Sunday.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 Int., 65 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 45 rec yds,
Luke Willson: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The blueprint for beating the Patriots is
well established and the Seahawks may be well equipped to carry
it out. When opposing teams are able to get pressure up the middle,
knocking Tom Brady around and forcing him to get rid of the ball
quickly, he doesn’t look like the Hall of Famer that he
surely will be. Of course just having the blueprint obviously
doesn’t make following the plan easy. The Ravens held Brady
and the passing game in check for much of their divisional round
matchup, but when the game was on the line, Brady came through,
as usual, leading his team to a late go-ahead score on a pass
to Brandon LaFell in the corner of the endzone. In the AFC Championship
game, the Patriots controlled the game on the ground but Brady
still managed to throw for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Brady
is a surgeon that can pick apart a defense, and has mastered a
system which puts his targets in the perfect spot to beat their
opponent. And those targets are all amongst the best at what they
do. Julian Edelman has seamlessly replaced former Patriot and
Brady security blanket Wes Welker catching 92 balls this season
after catching 105 the season before. He helps keep the chains
moving and opens up the field for one of the best weapons in the
league, tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Gronk was unanimously named
to the All-Pro team this year after putting up an 82-1124-12 stat-line
despite getting off to a slow start due to off-season ACL surgery.
Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare due to his size, speed and athleticism.
While the offense still lacks a true deep speed receiver to stretch
the defense, former Panther underachiever Brandon LaFell has done
a fine job on the outside adding 74 receptions for 953 yards and
7 touchdowns. The lack of traditional receiving targets should
help nullify one of the league’s best corners in Richard
Sherman as the team could make Danny Amendola, or even LaFell
at times, the sacrificial lamb on Sherman’s side of the
field and not miss a beat offensively.
If the Seahawks are unable to put pressure on Brady and throw
him off his game, it will be a much tougher task for them to stop
the likes of Gronkowski and Edelman, despite Gronkowski only being
“OK” according to cornerback Jeremy Lane. The Seahawks
were the league’s best passing defense once again in 2014,
allowing 185.6 passing yards per game. Without trying to take
too much away from Seattle it should be noted that they did get
to matchup with some very poor quarterbacks this season, but they
can surely get the job done even against the best quarterbacks
in the league. The Seahawks, however, finished the season with
only 37 sacks, which was slightly below the league average, and
as previously stated that could be a serious disadvantage if they
don’t get creative for this matchup in order to find ways
to get to the quarteback.
Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots rushing attack shouldn’t
be a major player in this matchup, as they will be running into
a brick wall of a defense and lack any dynamic runners. Shane
Vereen can be an explosive player but only rushed for 391 yards
on the season, as the Patriots prefer to use him as a pass catcher.
Outside of Vereen, the Patriots will trot out two similar hard
charging power backs in veteran LaGarrette Blount and first year
player Jonas Gray. Last week Blount followed the Patriots usual
game plan against the Colts and bludgeoned them with his no-nonsense
running style. Blount rushed for 148 yards and three scores against
an overmatched Colts defense. It would be hard to imagine the
team using a similar game plan this week, against a team that
has Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, K.J. Wright and Earl Thomas
in the heart of its defense. Expect Blount to see 10-12 carries
to keep the defense honest, but for the Patriots chances to rest
with Brady and the passing game.
Bobby Wagner’s Week 12 return from injury after missing
the previous five games helped turn around what was looking like
a disappointing season for Seattle. The defense started looking
like the dominating unit it was in the previous season over those
last six games. Seattle allowed only 81.5 rushing yards per game
this season (third fewest in the NFL). Belichick and his staff
are famous for looking to exploit the opposing team’s biggest
weakness, which is easier said than done against the Seahawks,
but the forcing the running isn’t likely to be his main
priority.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Shane Vereen: 15 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 30 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 17 ^ Top
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