ARI @ CAR | BAL
@ PIT | CIN @ IND | DET @ DAL
Predictions - YTD
|
Rk |
Staffer |
W |
L |
% |
1 |
Caron |
47 |
17 |
73.4 |
2 |
Marcoccio |
46 |
18 |
71.9 |
3 |
Smith |
45 |
19 |
70.3 |
4 |
Thorne |
37 |
27 |
57.8 |
|
Cardinals @ Panthers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Congratulations
to Arizona Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley, who finally threw
his first touchdown pass in the NFL this past week against the
San Francisco 49ers, although the Cardinals fell in the game and
are now limping into the playoffs as a wild card team as opposed
to being the No. 1 seed with a bye. Lindley still holds the NFL
record for most pass attempts without throwing a touchdown pass,
but his 316 yards and two touchdown passes against a good 49ers
defense should give Cardinals fans some hope heading into this
weekend’s game against the Panthers. Not only did Lindley
have his best game as a pro, but wide receiver Michael Floyd had
by far his biggest fantasy day of the season as he caught eight
passes for 153 yards and both of Lindley’s touchdowns. Unfortunately,
Lindley also threw three interceptions, which helped lead to the
Cardinals losing the game. Now with Lindley and the Cardinals
heading to Carolina, fantasy owners will be wondering if he is
worthy of being in lineups in daily leagues?
While the Panthers started the season off extremely poorly against
opposing quarterbacks, it’s worth noting that they have
been significantly stingier against the position as the season
has gone on. In fact, their two best games of the season have
come over the past two weeks as they held the Browns duo of Johnny
Manziel and Brian Hoyer as well as Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to
a total of 15 fantasy points. Perhaps worse yet, the Panthers
have allowed a total of just 10 touchdown passes against them
over their past nine games. That includes two games against both
Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. This sudden emergence of the Panthers
defense, combined with the questionable quarterbacking of Ryan
Lindley, makes it very tough to trust anyone in this passing game.
With Larry Fitzgerald still seemingly feeling the effects of a
sprained MCL and no other player regularly getting into the end
zone, the only player who fantasy owners should have much interest
in here is Floyd. Even then, he’s a risky play given the
up-and-down nature of his season.
Running Game Thoughts: The Arizona running game just isn’t
quite the same without Andre Ellington. The duo of Kerwynn Williams
and Stepfan Taylor simply do not have the same explosion and playmaking
ability that Ellington possesses. Combine that with the fact that
the team is trotting Ryan Lindley onto the field this Saturday
(unless Drew Stanton has a miraculous recovery), it just doesn’t
appear likely that Williams nor Taylor will be in line for a huge
game here on Wild Card Weekend. If Arizona wins this weekend in
Carolina, it will likely be due to their defense stepping up and
making big plays, or possibly even scoring for them. Because of
that, it’s going to be very tough to justify finding a place
for Williams or Taylor on fantasy rosters for the playoffs. Sure,
Williams had 17 touches in Week 17, but the previous game against
Seattle saw him touch the ball twice all day. Meanwhile, Taylor’s
usage has been a bit more consistent with him having rushed seven
times in Week 17 and 11 times against the Seahawks in Week 16.
Still, neither player is particularly exciting as they go up a
Panthers defense that has been excellent against the run down
the stretch.
Carolina has not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 10. While
they haven’t exactly played against the world’s most
talented group of running backs during that stretch, the current
Arizona backfield falls in line with the worst groups in the league.
The Panthers defense has averaged just over 73 rushing yards per
game against them over their past seven games, so there’s
not likely to be much to go around for this unit. Fantasy owners
would be wise to stay away from this group.
Projections:
Ryan Lindley: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Kerwynn Williams: 40 rush yds
Stepfan Taylor: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds
John Brown: 25 rec yds
Darren Fells: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: If the Cam Newton that showed up in his
final three starts of the season was the same guy that showed
up during the rest of the season, perhaps the Panthers wouldn’t
have had to battle their way into the playoffs in Week 17 against
a then 6-9 Atlanta Falcons team. But Newton showed his leadership
abilities and rode a huge day from the Carolina defense to a solid
fantasy day himself despite throwing for just 114 yards and a
touchdown on the day. Newton showed up for his fantasy owners
by adding an additional 51 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Newton has rushed for 246 yards and three touchdowns over his
past four starts and is beginning to remind us why he was once
considered the best dual-threat quarterback in the league. While
Kelvin Benjamin’s Week 17 output of one reception for nine
yards was his worst of the season and was obviously very disappointing,
it was more of a product of the game flow than an actual lapse
in success on the field. Benjamin still finished the season with
a very solid rookie output of 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and
nine touchdowns. Tight end Greg Olsen has also been quiet over
his past two games, but had previously come off of back-to-back
10 reception games against the Saints and Buccaneers, thus making
him one of the premiere fantasy tight ends for the playoffs, perhaps
only behind Rob Gronkowski.
This Carolina passing game now has the task of hosting an Arizona
defense that, while still very good, has shown signs of beginning
to break down over the past few weeks. The Cardinals have given
up back-to-back two touchdown passing days to Seattle’s
Russell Wilson and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick. Perhaps
more importantly for those analyzing this game, however, is that
the Cardinals have not done a good job in containing those mobile
quarterbacks on the ground. Wilson rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown
while Kaepernick added 63 rushing yards of his own. With Newton
seemingly healthy and running the ball more than he had been earlier
in the season, things are looking good for the possibility of
Newton to put up some solid numbers through the air and potentially
add a 50-plus yard day with a decent possibility of a rushing
touchdown on the ground.
Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps sensing that his time in Carolina
and as a starting NFL running back may soon be coming to an end,
Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart has certainly been making a
case to remain relevant to the team for 2015. Over his past five
games, Stewart has averaged over 100 total yards. He did seem
to struggle to find room against a bad Atlanta defense this past
week as he ran for just 49 yards on 13 carries, but the Panthers
also allowed other players like Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whittaker
to get significant touches in the blowout victory, which certainly
hurt Stewart’s chances to put up big numbers, especially
late in the game. Some fans seem to be worried about the potential
return of DeAngelo Williams to the lineup, but the coaching staff
in Carolina has not shown any real commitment to getting Williams
back onto the field in a significant role. Look for Stewart to
remain the lead dog and be relied upon heavily this Saturday.
He won’t have an easy day, though, as Arizona finished
4th in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs on the
season. The Cardinals held opposing backs to 10 or fewer points
(standard scoring) in six games during the regular season. However,
those looking for some optimism can point to some recent struggles
that the team has had to control opposing running games. The Arizona
defensive unit did not allow a single team’s running backs
to rush for more than 100 yards in a game until Week 13. But from
Week 13 on, they allowed four teams to do so in their final five
contests. This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, but fantasy
owners could do worse than Stewart here in the Wildcard round.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Olsen: 75 rec yds
Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20 ^ Top
Ravens vs. Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Ravens
and Steelers, one of the NFL’s best current rivalries, will
matchup in the playoffs for the third time in the last seven seasons.
The two teams have been evenly matched over the last five to six
years, splitting their last fourteen meetings with seven wins
apiece. Joe Flacco has had an inconsistent season, but finished
strong in a playoff clinching Week 17 win over the Cleveland Browns.
He finished the season with very respectable numbers, completing
62% of his passes for 3,986 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
In his two matchups with Pittsburgh this season Flacco averaged
234.5 passing yards and totaled 4 touchdowns with only one interception.
During the first half of the season it was old man Steve Smith
leading the way in the receiving corps and the veteran finished
the season with a 79-1065-6 stat-line after being left for dead
following a miserable season in Carolina. While Steve Smith was
red hot to start the season Torrey Smith was equally ice cold
during the season’s first five weeks. However the younger
Smith eventually came on strong scoring 10 of his 11 touchdowns
during Weeks 6-17. Torrey has always excelled as a deep target
and still doesn’t see many targets in the short or intermediate
passing game despite improving his route tree during his first
three seasons in the league. The Ravens may need to get into a
shootout with the Steelers on Saturday Night with their porous
pass defense likely not able to stop the Pittsburgh passing attack.
Joe Flacco has shown evidence of being able to put up gaudy passing
statistics, but it hasn’t necessarily been his strong suit.
The Ravens are at their best when they can establish a running
game, and take occasional shots downfield.
If the Ravens are forced to keep up with the Steelers red hot
passing game, in their favor is the fact that the Steelers’
secondary has been amongst the worst in the league in 2014. Pittsburgh
allowed 253.1 passing yards per game and yielded 30 passing touchdowns
during the regular season. The defense can bring the heat at times,
but when teams are able to protect their quarterback there will
usually be an open man to get the ball to. Torrey Smith’s
speed and Steve Smith’s strength and quickness could cause
major problems for this beleaguered secondary – especially
if the Ravens running game forces Troy Polamalu, who struggles
in pass defense anyway and is struggling with a knee injury, up
close to the line of scrimmage all night.
Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett appeared to be over his
ankle injury in Week 17, after struggling through his prior two
games, finishing with 119 rushing yards on 17 carries. At 29 years
old, Forsett shattered his career season high marks in 2014, finishing
with 1,266 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. Forsett started
the season as only a third-down back, behind Bernard Pierce (and
Ray Rice) on the depth chart, but quickly earned a bigger role
after outperforming the struggling Pierce. The career journeyman
is only 5’8” and 197 pounds but he runs with surprising
power and is quick through the hole and shifty enough to get past
an initial defender. The Ravens feature an above average offensive
line, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s version of
the zone blocking scheme and will need to be able to get Forsett
going against a stout Pittsburgh run defense if they want to keep
their season alive.
Forsett will be tested at Heinz Field against a strong Steelers’
run defense that is only allowing 100.3 yards per game on the
ground. The Steelers like to move their safeties up into the box
to shut down the run, which has left them susceptible in the passing
game all season. The Steelers were able to hold Forsett under
100 yards combined in their two regular season games and will
be game-planning to keep him in check once again, as they probably
like their odds in an aerial battle between Joe Flacco and Ben
Roethlisberger.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Bernard Pierce: 5 rush yds
Justin Forsett: 65 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Torrey Smith: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 65 rec yds, 2 TDs
Owen Daniels: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers are going to need Ben Roethlisberger
to come through this week, especially in light of the strong possibility
of Le’Veon Bell missing the game. The good news is that
Big Ben set career highs with 4,952 passing yards and 32 passing
touchdowns while only throwing 9 interceptions. After showing
initially showing resistance to the offensive style of offensive
coordinator Todd Haley, Big Ben has thrived with a shorter, quicker
passing game since the middle of last season. With Antonio Brown’s
incredible quickness making him nearly impossible to cover, the
offense has become at times unstoppable. Brown finished with the
second most receptions in NFL history with 129 for 1,698 receiving
yards and 13 touchdowns. The biggest lift to the Steelers passing
game, however, was the insertion of rookie Martavis Bryant into
a bigger role after second-year wide receiver Markus Wheaton failed
to build any rapport with Roethlisberger during the first half
of the season. Bryant has made a major impact with his size, speed
and big play ability. He can get deep behind a defense for long
gains or can take a short bubble screen and explode past defenders,
as he did last week for a 21-yard touchdown. Ben also has dependable
tight end Heath Miller at his disposal to act as his security
blanket. Miller has a knack for finding a soft spot in a defense
and while he’s not the athletic freak that is the rage for
tight ends today, he moves well enough for his size that he can
get yards after the catch. This is an offense that is clicking
right now and may be the only offense in the AFC that can go into
New England and beat the Patriots in the post-season this year.
Of course they will first need to get past Baltimore this week
and get Le’Veon Bell healthy.
This isn’t your older brother’s Pittsburgh-Baltimore
matchup, as we could see an aerial display in Heinz Field rather
than the smash mouth slugfest we were used to seeing when these
two teams matched up in the recent past. Both teams have struggled
to shut down opposing passing offenses all season long. The Baltimore
pass defense finished 24th ranked in the league, allowing 248.7
yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns. Ben and his weapons
should be able to keep their team in the game, despite the possibility
to missing a major piece of the offense.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell is coming off a spectacular
second season and has been a major factor for the Steelers’
offense both running the ball and as a receiver out of the backfield.
Unfortunately, it seems highly unlikely that he will play this
week after suffering a hyperextension of his knee in the Week
17 game against Cincinnati. The team just signed veteran free
agent Ben Tate who was recently released by the Vikings further
indicating that Bell is not expected to be able to suit up. Rookies
Josh Harris and Dri Archer, who have combined for 56 yards rushing
all season, will take Bell’s place in the backfield, which
doesn’t bode well for the Steelers’ rushing attack.
Harris did have a 59-yard touchdown run called back last week
on a holding penalty so perhaps all hope is not lost. Harris was
an undrafted free agent singing out of Wake Forest who spent much
of the season on the practice squad after gaining 41 yards on
8 carries during the preseason. Archer is tiny at 5’8”,
173 pounds and while he could be effective on a handful of screen
passes or outside runs, he’s likely to struggle in pass
protection or if asked to carry too big of a load. It’s
likely against a tough Ravens’ run defense that this becomes
the Ben Roethlisberger show even more than ever.
Making matters worse for the inexperienced Harris and Archer is
that they’ll be facing the league’s 4th ranked run
defense. The Ravens allowed only 88.3 yards per game during the
regular season. Making matters that much more worse is that the
Ravens will get back mammoth lineman Haloti Ngata this week who
returns from a four game suspension for taking Adderall.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 315 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT., 15 rush yds
Josh Harris: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Dri Archer: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 125 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Martavis Bryant: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Ravens 31, Steelers 30
Bengals at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
led the league with 40 touchdown throws and more than 4,700 passing
yards, numbers that were just ahead of Aaron Rodgers, but Luck
was beaten out by Rodgers as fantasy’s top point-earner
due to the fact that Luck threw 16 interceptions and Rodgers just
five. He’s a must-start this weekend, as is T.Y. Hilton,
who is 10th at wide receiver in fantasy scoring. Coby Fleener
should also get some consideration at tight end due to the position’s
scarcity of impact players and the decent match-up he has with
the Bengals.
Cincinnati was 20th in the NFL in pass defense and surrendered
the third-fewest passing scores during the regular season. They
were in the middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to
tight ends, but allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to both
quarterbacks and wide receivers. However, they struggled at the
end of the year, allowing 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns to
quarterbacks in three of their final four contests.
Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson led the Colts in rushing
this season, but that was only because Ahmad Bradshaw was sidelined
with an injury in mid-November. Richardson ran for just over 500
yards with three scores while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per
carry. He’s a less effective back than Bradshaw’s
replacement, Dan Herron, who should be in line as an RB2 this
weekend against a Cincinnati team that allowed plenty of fantasy
points to opposing running backs.
The Bengals ranked 20th in the league against the run and was
27th in rushing touchdowns permitted during the regular season.
They allowed more receiving yards to running backs than all but
one other team this season (NO) and more fantasy points to players
at that position than all but five other squads.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 310 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 55 rec yds
Hakeem Nicks: 30 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Allen: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton
had a middling season for any fantasy owner brazen enough to put
him on their roster, throwing for just 19 touchdowns with 17 interceptions
and ranking 18th in fantasy scoring at his position. Dalton has
no place in fantasy lineups this weekend, but there are a pair
of Bengals that do, though both are dealing with injuries. Wideout
A.J. Green is dealing with a concussion, and as of this writing
there was no word on his availability for this weekend’s
game, but if he plays, he’s clearly a fantasy starter. The
other is based mostly on match-up, and that’s tight end
Jermaine Gresham. He’s got a back injury but is likely to
play, which could be a good thing for fantasy owners. Gresham
has three touchdowns since Week 14 and has an outstanding match-up
against Indianapolis.
The Colts were 12th in the league against the pass and 20th in
passing touchdowns given up during the regular season. They were
slightly above average in terms of fantasy points surrendered
to quarterbacks and allowed the fifth-fewest amount of points
to wide receivers, but struggled against tight ends, with only
three teams allowing more fantasy points to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill has established himself as
the team’s top option as a runner, ending his rookie campaign
with 1,100+ yards and nine scores on the ground. Giovani Bernard
will still get some carries, but he’s more of a threat as
a pass-catcher at this point, with Hill doing the heavy lifting
via the run. Hill is a solid option this week against the Colts,
who had their difficulties stopping opposing backs this year.
Indianapolis was 18th in the NFL versus the run and 21st in rushing
scores allowed during the regular season. They gave up the fourth-most
receiving yards to running backs this year and the 11th-most fantasy
points to players at the position.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Jeremy Hill: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 30 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 55 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Colts 28, Bengals 21 ^ Top
Lions at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Though he
had a reasonably successful fantasy day, QB Matthew Stafford was
unable to lead the Lions to a victory in Week 17 and thus they
will play on the road for Wildcard weekend. In his career, Stafford
is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record, so leaving
the comforts of Ford Field to play in the postseason doesn’t
bode well for Detroit. Over the last half of the season the passing
game has been underwhelming, with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions
in eight games, including three contests where Stafford and the
receiving corps were held out of the endzone. During that span
the Lions have faced three playoff teams, each on the road, and
have lost all three of those games. Against that trio Stafford
has averaged just 221 yards per game and has thrown two interceptions
with only three touchdowns. The return of WR Calvin Johnson to
full health has provided a needed boost to the offense, though
in his absences and limited performances WR Golden Tate stepped
up quite well. For the season it is Tate who leads Detroit in
yardage, but as expected Johnson does have the most touchdown
receptions. For the season the Lions earned a top ten ranking
in just one of the major passing categories, tied for the eighth
fewest interceptions in the league; in every other area they show
incredible inconsistencies, and on the road they’ve been
at their worst.
Even teams that have struggled on the road have been able to
find some semblance of stability when playing in Dallas, with
the Cowboys losing two home games to teams that didn’t finish
with a winning record (SF, WAS). Against the pass, Dallas ranks
in the bottom quarter of the league in two categories, failing
to create consistent pressure on the quarterback and surrendering
252 yards per game through the air. Despite that yardage, the
Cowboys rank in the top quarter for both of touchdowns conceded
and interceptions forced, so even when offenses have been able
to move the ball down the field, more often than not the defense
has been able to at least keep them out of the endzone. In closing
the regular season on a four game winning streak, Dallas forced
seven interceptions while allowing just four touchdowns. Though
being much maligned for the majority of the season, the Cowboys
have overcome injuries and criticism to put forth an impressive
secondary, which has played an integral part in their aspirations
for a championship season.
Running Game Thoughts: The last time Detroit won a playoff game
the year was 1991 and Barry Sanders was the main man in their
backfield. This season the Lions have been one of the five worst
rushing teams in the NFL, averaging just 89 yards per game. On
a per carry basis Detroit is even worse, with the fourth worst
mark of 3.6 yards gained per attempt. The only player on the team
who averages at least four yards per carry is a wide receiver,
and unfortunately he’s only been given five attempts on
the ground. Only three different players have recorded a rushing
touchdown this season, with RB Joique Bell earning seven of the
team’s total of 11 scores. Though RB Reggie Bush has been
hurt or limited for a large portion of the season, he finally
seems to be getting closer to full health in time for the playoffs.
On the season Bell has carried the ball nearly three times as
often as Bush, though as a receiver out of the backfield it has
been Bush who has seen more targets and converted more receptions.
With Stafford under center and both Johnson and Tate out wide,
Detroit knows they don’t have to utilize their rushing attack
to be successful. However with two healthy ball carriers available
for this weekend it’s possible that they look to the running
game more often than usual to provide better balance to the offense.
Against the run Dallas has been one of the best teams in the
NFL this season, ranking in the top quarter for yards gained per
game. A contributing factor to this success has been DT Henry
Melton (knee) who will be unavailable for the remainder of the
playoffs after being placed on Injured Reserve. Though he was
not credited with a tackle in nine different contests this season,
his presence in the middle of the defensive line allowed others
in the front seven to be active in going after the ball carrier.
The greatest weakness for the Cowboys run defense was their inability
to keep teams out of the endzone, allowing the second most rushing
touchdowns this season. Against Detroit this particular deficiency
may not be fully exploited, as their 11 team rushing touchdowns
is below average for the league. Furthermore the Lions don’t
figure to run the ball frequently in scoring position since both
Johnson and Tate are incredible targets in the redzone and the
offensive line hasn’t had great success in creating running
room. The absence of Melton may not make an incredible difference
in the defensive stat lines, but for a front seven which lacked
for depth for most of the season any disruption could help pave
the way for an improved rushing attack from the Lions.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Joique Bell: 75 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Bush: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 65 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Though the yardage totals for the team are
barely average for the league, the Cowboys have the second most
passing touchdowns and the best mark for yards gained per attempt.
At times, QB Tony Romo (back) has been limited but in the latter
stages of the season he’s shown almost no signs of the injury
which caused him to miss approximately five quarters in the middle
of the year. The biggest beneficiary of his return to health has
been WR Terrance Williams; as the Cowboys top deep threat his
production has been most volatile in response to Romo and his
ability to stretch the field with his arm. The leading pass catcher
for the team, and the NFL leader in touchdown receptions, is WR
Dez Bryant, who has been almost unaffected by the presence or
absence of anyone else on offense. With 16 scores from 16 games
and averaging over 82 yards per contest, Bryant is a top three
fantasy receiver this year, and over the last half of the season
he’s been even better. The final piece critical to the passing
attack is TE Jason Witten, who after a slow start to the season
worked his way into a top ten ranking for his position. With a
highly efficient offense and a quarterback who has thrown fewer
interceptions than three quarters of the league, the Cowboys have
one of the best scoring offenses through the air which is complemented
by an equally impressive rushing attack.
After a controversial play, a suspension which was unsurprising
but also unexpected, and an appeal which led to the lifting of
that suspension, DT Ndamukong Suh will be available for the Sunday
showdown between these two silver and blue teams. For the year,
few teams have been better at getting to the quarterback than
the Lions, ranking in the top quarter of the league for sacks
recorded. The strength of the Detroit defense is their front four,
but with the pressure they’re able to create, the Lions
are also highly rated in their secondary, tied in third place
for interceptions forced and falling just outside of the top ten
for passing touchdowns allowed. Against playoff teams in the second
half of the season, Detroit has allowed two touchdowns through
the air to each of those three opponents while surrendering an
average of 296 yards per game. Though the Cowboys don’t
figure to air it out to the same extent of those previous opponents,
Romo and company will be even more of a threat to the endzone
than the three teams which Detroit was unable to overcome during
the regular season.
Running Game Thoughts: Even in a nearly-meaningless game in Week
17, RB DeMarco Murray was given a full workload. He turned 20
carries into 100 rushing yards and a touchdown, and another 21
yards through the air from three catches. That game became the
12th time this season Murray has gained at least 100 yards, and
his score gave him 13 on the season which is the most in the league.
Murray easily captured the rushing title for 2014, gaining nearly
36% more yards on the ground than another other ball carrier.
Aside from him Dallas did very little else on the ground; no other
running back received more than 51 carries, and in total volume
no one else on the team was within 300 touches. When added together,
the number of passes completed by the Cowboys and rushing attempts
from the team is 836; the 449 total touches from Murray represents
nearly 54% of the total plays executed by Dallas which did not
result in an incomplete pass. The Cowboys are the second best
rushing team in the league, and if someone with a star on their
helmet is carrying the ball it’s almost guaranteed to be
Murray; there was no more valuable player in fantasy football
this season.
If there is one defense which can stop the Dallas rushing attack,
that unit just may be the Lions and their dominant front seven.
Against the run, no one has been better than Detroit; they surrender
a miniscule 69 rushing yards per game; no other team allows fewer
than 79. On a per carry basis the Lions are also best in the NFL,
allowing 3.2 yards per attempt. Only two teams all season, and
just one individual, have gained triple digit yardage with the
ground attack, and only one of those contests resulted in a loss
for Detroit. Though dominance of the run game doesn’t always
lead to a victory for the Lions, it does allow the secondary to
focus almost exclusively on the passing game rather than providing
run support. Since Dallas has attempted the third most rushes
in the NFL, the defensive front seven may have their work cut
out for them, but if they can contain the rushing attack that
will allow the secondary to key on the talented pass catchers
who the Cowboys have relied on in the latter stages of the season.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 230 pass yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Joseph Randle: 5 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Lions 17 ^ Top
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