Cardinals @ Rams - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: When he first took over the starting role for injured quarterback Carson Palmer, backup Drew Stanton appeared as if he might be able to continue where the veteran had left off. He threw for 306 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a very good Detroit defense back in Week 11. Since then, however, his passing numbers have tumbled. He has just two touchdowns over his past three contests, including a one-touchdown, two-interception performance in what was one of the best possible matchups he could have seen. A talented trio of wideouts including Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown have become non-factors over the past few games. Instead, Jaron Brown has become the target of choice in this middling offense as he has made nine receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown over his past two games. None of these players is worth trusting at the moment for fantasy owners as this struggling offense just does not seem to be turning things around.

They won't have an easy time this week, either, as they go up against one of the hottest defenses in the league, the St. Louis Rams who have pitched shutouts in back-to-back games against the Raiders and Redskins. They rank 10th on the season in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but they've been incredible in the second half of the season. They have not allowed more than 15 fantasy points to any quarterback since all the way back in Week 7. During that stretch, no quarterback has even thrown for multiple touchdowns against them. That includes games against Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. It just doesn't get much worse than this from a fantasy matchup standpoint, so all members of your Arizona Cardinals passing game should remain on your fantasy bench here in Week 15.

Running Game Thoughts: A hip pointer knocked Andre Ellington out of the Cardinals' Week 13 contest against the Falcons and then held him out for the entirety of Week 14. There was some optimism that he might be able to return at some point this season, even if it were in the playoffs, but that has now been ruled out as the Cardinals officially placed Ellington on season-ending IR this week. This is a brutal hit to an already struggling Arizona offense as they hope to get things back on track. Perhaps the extraordinarily high touch total finally took its toll on Ellington, but now fantasy owners will be without one of the top running backs in the league as they hope to close out their fantasy championship seasons. With Ellington out, most expected that it would be Marion Grice or even Stefan Taylor who would get the majority of the touches out of the backfield for the Cardinals, but it was instead Kerwynn Williams who carried the ball 19 times in the Cardinals' gutsy win over the Chiefs in Week 14. Williams would take those 19 carries for 100 yards on the ground; an impressive performance for his first real opportunity to play in this backfield. This would be an inspiring fantasy tidbit if the Cardinals weren't up against one of the league's best defenses, the St. Louis Rams.

The Rams have held opposing running games to fewer than 70 rushing yards in seven of their 13 games this season, including three games where they held teams to fewer than 30 rushing yards. They're coming off of their most dominant defensive game of the season when they allowed Alfred Morris to rush for just 14 yards on nine carries. If Williams performs here in Week 15, we may consider utilizing him on fantasy rosters in Weeks 16 and 17, but unless you're in a desperate situation where you just need carries from the running back position, Williams should be on your bench for this matchup.

Projections:
Drew Stanton: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Kerwynn Williams: 50 rush yds
Jaron Brown: 55 rec yds
John Brown: 45 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 40 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: In what has turned out to be a lost season for the Rams, there is still plenty of fight left on this team. Back-to-back shutouts by the St. Louis defense have allowed the offense to play much more conservatively than they did earlier in the year, but that hasn't kept them from being productive from a fantasy standpoint. In fact, Shaun Hill threw for multiple touchdowns in both contests; the first time he had done so in back-to-back games so far this season. His yardage totals since taking over as the Rams' starter haven't been particularly exciting but he hasn't really needed them, especially in the two shutout victories. The team still doesn't seem to have a go-to receiving option, but it's worth noting that second-year wideout Tavon Austin has been making more plays as of late. While they have primarily been in the running and kick return game, it's at least nice to see the first round pick they invested in him paying off to some extent. The team's top target, however, has instead been Stedman Bailey. Over his past three games, Bailey has made 14 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers don't make him a must-start for fantasy purposes, but they do make him someone who fantasy owners could consider taking a chance on in this surprisingly good matchup.

Arizona's defense has been good for most of the season, but they've struggled as of late, particularly against opposing wide receivers. In fact, they've conceded a total of 470 yards and a touchdown on 33 receptions to opposing wideouts. Arizona also remains very poor against opposing tight ends as they have given up two touchdowns and over 200 receiving yards to opposing tight ends over their past three games. Jared Cook actually punished this very defense for 84 yards and a touchdown just a few weeks ago when these teams met, so giving him a chance here in Week 15 isn't necessarily too bad of an idea.

Running Game Thoughts: St. Louis' offense hasn't given us much to look forward to for 2015. The carousel at the quarterback position, the injuries and general incompetence from the wide receiver position and mediocre performances from the offensive line have been tough to watch. But as the team battles its way through the remainder of the season, perhaps the one thing we can be excited about is the progression of rookie running back Tre Mason. Mason started the season as the third string back behind Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham but has since become the team's starting running back and has certainly performed well given the situation. Over his past four games, Mason has gone off for 432 total yards of offense and become a reliable RB2 for fantasy owners in a season where that has been tough to come by. This has primarily been due to the high workload the team has trusted him with. Even in games that they've lost, the Rams have still made it a point to give Mason the football. He has touched the ball at least 17 times in six straight contests. Unfortunately, there is some reason to be worried here in Week 15 as the Rams host the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per games to opposing running backs this season. That includes a Week 10 game against Mason when they held him to just 48 yards rushing on 14 carries. That game, however, took place on the road where Mason has been significantly less effective. At home, Mason has been a monster. In his three home starts since becoming the Rams' feature tailback, he has produced 363 total yards of offense with four total touchdowns. It's tough to expect Mason to continue that kind of pace in this very difficult matchup, but given the lack of players who are likely to touch the ball more than him, Mason should and will likely be in most fantasy lineups here in Week 15.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Stedman Bailey: 75 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 40 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 20 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Rams 20, Cardinals 16 ^ Top

Steelers at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Bengals, and with two consecutive games of 25 or more fantasy points has crept into the top-five in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks. He throws to the most productive receiver in the NFL, Antonio Brown, who already has 105 catches and leads all wideouts in fantasy scoring. And after a two-game lull, receiver Martavis Bryant resurfaced with over 100 yards and a score against Cincinnati. Each player should be starting for fantasy owners this week against a Falcons team that is one of the worst in the NFL defending the pass.

Atlanta is tied for fifth-fewest passing scores given up this season but no team in the league has allowed more yards through the air. They’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends and are 14th in fantasy points surrendered to quarterbacks but have been hammered by wideouts. Just three teams have yielded more fantasy points to receivers than the Falcons, who have allowed an opposing wideout to gain 120 or more yards in four of their last six contests.

Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell hasn’t had the type of season running the ball that DeMarco Murray has, but due to Bell’s prowess as a receiver, he is only slightly behind Murray in fantasy scoring. Bell has amassed at least 220 total yards in three straight contests, has scored four times on the ground in his last three games, and gets to face Atlanta this week, who routinely lets running backs traverse into the end zone.

The Falcons have the league’s 21st-ranked run defense and no squad has given up more rushing scores. They also allow running backs to prosper as receivers, having surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards in the league to players at that position. Add it all up and you have an Atlanta squad that has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 335 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Le’Veon Bell: 105 rush yds, 2 TD, 40 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 115 rec yds, 2 TD
Martavis Bryant: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 35 rec yds
Lance Moore: 30 rec yds
Heath Miller: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan’s mid-season disappearing act certainly hurt his fantasy owners, but he’s been making up for lost time recently. Ryan has topped 350 passing yards and at least 20 fantasy points for two consecutive games, each of which are firsts for him this season. Unfortunately, he may not have Julio Jones this week due to a hip injury. Roddy White should be good to go however, and though he’s not piling up yards, White does have three touchdowns over his last five games and is a good play against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are 23rd in the NFL in pass defense and have permitted more passing scores than all but three other teams. They’ve given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 13th-most to wideouts, but have been shredded by receivers recently, with Kenny Stills amassing 162 yards and a score in Week 13 and A.J. Green going for 224 yards and a touchdown last week. Pittsburgh’s also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and has allowed a player at that position to score a touchdown in six consecutive games.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson’s touchdown against the Packers last week was his fourth score in six games, but he managed just 50 rushing yards in the contest. His fantasy value this week – and pretty much every week – depends entirely on whether or not he can find the end zone, and that doesn’t seem like a probability versus this Steelers defense.

Pittsburgh’s been far more successful defending the run than the pass, ranking ninth in the NFL in rush defense and tied for 15th in rushing scores permitted. They’ve given up the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to running backs, and from Week 8 on, only one back has managed to gain more than 51 yards against them.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 270 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Steven Jackson: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Julio Jones: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Levine Toilolo: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Steelers 35, Falcons 24 ^ Top

Texans at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick and his receiving crew didn’t do very much last week against the Jaguars, but they didn’t have to considering the way they ran the ball. Still, it was a disappointment for the fantasy owners of DeAndre Hopkins (really the only fantasy-worthy Texan in the passing game), who had just 49 yards on four receptions. Andre Johnson may not suit up this week due to a concussion, but he’s been off fantasy radars for a while now anyway. Hopkins does not have a good match-up with the Colts, but should be considered a WR2 because there are precious few other options for Houston in the passing game.

Indianapolis is 22nd in the league in pass defense and tied for 14th in passing touchdowns given up. They’re in the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks but have surrendered the fifth-fewest points in the NFL to wideouts. Where the Colts have struggled is against tight ends, as only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to players at that position, but the Texans do not offer a legitimate fantasy option at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster ran for 127 yards and a touchdown last week against Jacksonville and continues to be a week-in, week-out RB1. There isn’t a whole lot to discuss this week concerning Foster. He faces an Indianapolis team that is among the most generous in the league to opposing running backs, and against whom he had 109 yards and two rushing scores in Week 6.

The Colts have the league’s 13th-ranked run defense, but are tied for 23rd in rushing touchdowns surrendered. They’ve allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL, and that, combined with the amount of scores they’ve given up, is why Indy has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points in the league to running backs despite a solid ranking against the run.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Arian Foster: 95 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 55 rec yds
Ryan Griffin: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck has committed a rash of turnovers lately, with at least two in each of his last three games, but still leads planet earth in fantasy scoring. There should be no worries about him from fantasy owners, and the same can be said about T.Y. Hilton. The wideout had a season-high 10 receptions last week for 150 yards, scored twice, and now has seven touchdowns in his last eight games. Coby Fleener has also played well of late, though that has come at the expense of fellow tight end Dwayne Allen. Unfortunately, neither has a particularly good match-up this week against a Houston team that is very good against tight ends despite poor overall rankings in pass defense.
The Texans are ranked 28th in the NFL against the pass and are tied for 21st in passing touchdowns allowed. Those are poor rankings, but the team has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends and the 12th-fewest points to quarterbacks, having not allowed multiple touchdown throws by a single quarterback in their last four games. Houston still has issues against wide receivers however, and has given up the second-most fantasy points in the league to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson had only 30 rushing yards last week on just seven carries, marking the fourth time in five games he’s taken less than 10 handoffs. When Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy, he was the more productive of the Colts’ running back duo, and the same is true for Daniel Herron. “Boom” isn’t setting any records, and it hasn’t helped that he’s fumbled twice in three games, but he has amassed at least 70 total yards in each of his last three contests.

Houston is 15th in the league in run defense but is tied for third-fewest rushing scores allowed this season. Some early-season struggles have tainted their fantasy numbers a bit, as the Texans have given up the 14th-fewest fantasy points to running backs, but have been stronger lately than that number might indicate, because since Week 6, just two runners have managed to gain more than 61 yards against them.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 320 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 45 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Reggie Wayne: 60 rec yds
Donte Moncrief: 35 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 45 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 21 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Panthers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Since his return as a starter, Josh McCown has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his five games. Unfortunately, he’s also committed multiple turnovers in three of his five games. He’ll continue to be the team’s starter, which means he should continue to find Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Evans has failed to reach 50 yards in three consecutive games, but has three touchdowns in those games and eight scores in his last six contests. Jackson had a season-high 159 yards last week against Detroit, and has 115 or more yards twice in his last three games, but still has just two touchdowns this year and none since Week 4. Both Tampa wideouts have a spot in fantasy lineups this week, but Evans remains ahead of Jackson in the pecking order as they take on the Panthers.

Carolina is 16th in the league in pass defense and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns permitted. They’ve given up the 13th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends but have allowed the ninth-most points to quarterbacks and the 11th-most to wide receivers. However, it should be noted that the Panthers have done better against wideouts in their last few games, having held each receiver they’ve faced over that time to 75 or fewer yards.

Running Game Thoughts: Bobby Rainey’s injury forced him to miss last week’s game against the Lions, which opened things up for Doug Martin, right? Uh, wrong. Martin had all of five carries for 22 yards and a single reception which went for zero yards. Fantasy owners should avoid Martin against a Carolina team that has improved against the run from where they were at the beginning of the year.

The Panthers rank 19th in the NFL against the run and are 23rd in rushing scores allowed. They’ve surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs, but have improved in this area recently. From Week 7 on, just one running back has managed to surpass 65 rushing yards when facing Carolina, and they haven’t allowed a back to score in three straight games.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 205 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Doug Martin: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike Evans: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis Murphy: 30 rec yds
Luke Stocker: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton was injured in a car accident this week, which will open the door for Derek Anderson to start. Anderson last started in Week 1, against the Buccaneers, and threw for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s not necessarily the guy fantasy owners want starting for them in the fantasy playoffs, but in a pinch he should at least be serviceable. There are a couple of Panthers who should be starting this week, including rookie Kelvin Benjamin, who started his career off with a bang against Tampa by picking up 92 yards and a score in Week 1. Tight end Greg Olsen had 72 yards and a touchdown last week and has moved ahead of Jimmy Graham into second in fantasy scoring at his position. He compiled 83 yards and a touchdown against Tampa in Week 1 and should be in fantasy lineups this week against the same team.

The Buccaneers are 24th in the league in pass defense and tied for 26th in passing touchdowns surrendered. They’re a middle of the road team in terms of fantasy points given up to tight ends, but have allowed the 12th-most points in the league to quarterbacks and the sixth-most points to wide receivers. From Week 9 on, Tampa has allowed double-digit fantasy points to a wideout in all but one of their games.

Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams did not play last week for the Panthers, and that meant Jonathan Stewart got the bulk of the carries. He responded with 155 yards and a touchdown on 20 totes, including a 69-yard scamper. It was unknown at the time of this writing if Williams would play this week, but if he doesn’t, Stewart should be considered a RB2 against the Buccaneers and their pliable run defense.

Tampa Bay is 20th in the NFL against the run and 22nd in rushing scores given up. Though they’ve only allowed one running back to gain at least 100 yards this season, plenty have gotten close. In fact, over their last nine games, the Bucs have allowed a back to pick up at least 80 yards seven different times. They’ve also allowed running backs to score five times via reception this year, which is another reason why the team has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points in the league to players at that position.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jonathan Stewart: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Philly Brown: 40 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 25 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Panthers 21, Buccaneers 17 ^ Top

Jets at Titans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Geno Smith managed 254 yards through the air last week against the Vikings, which was his second-highest total of the season. Yet he threw just one score and has thrown multiple touchdowns in just one game this season. Smith’s best target last week was Percy Harvin, who had 124 yards, but was injured and reports are suggesting he won’t be able to suit up this week. That leaves Eric Decker as the team’s top option, and while he did have 89 yards last week (a season-high), he’s a less-than-reliable option for fantasy owners. Even against a struggling Tennessee pass defense, fantasy owners should continue to ignore all Jets involved in the passing game.

The Titans are 19th in the NFL against the pass and tied for 21st in passing scores allowed. For the season they are a middle of the pack team (ranked between 13th and 19th) in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, but that’s hardly a reflection of their recent play. Tennessee was lit up by Ryan Fitzpatrick for six touchdowns two weeks ago, has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in two of their last three games, and has surrendered 130 or more yards to a wideout in each of their last two contests.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson each got 16 carries last week, with Ivory picking up 73 yards and Johnson managing 53. Ivory leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 8. However, there’s nothing like facing the Titans to reverse your running woes. They are a simply terrible run defense, and though Ivory is a bit of a gamble, it’s one worth taking for fantasy owners.

Tennessee has the single-worst run defense in the entire NFL and only three teams have given up more rushing scores. They’ve given up the second-most fantasy points in the league to running backs, and have been destroyed on the ground since the mid-point of the season. In their six games from Week 8 on, the Titans have allowed five different running backs to gain at least 100 rushing yards, four backs to pick up at least 130, and two backs to break 150 yards.

Projections:
Geno Smith: 145 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Chris Ivory: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Chris Johnson: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Eric Decker: 55 rec yds
Jeremy Kerley: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeff Cumberland: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Zach Mettenberger is out with an injury, which means Jake Locker is in at quarterback for the Titans. Neither quarterback is worthy being on fantasy rosters, but it does mean an uptick in value for tight end Delanie Walker. He was essentially the only Titans pass-catcher worthy of being in fantasy lineups anyway, and he was more productive with Locker. Now Walker gets to face a team that cannot keep tight ends out of the end zone, making him a clear fantasy starter this week versus the Jets.

New York is 15th in the league in pass defense but only Chicago has permitted more passing touchdowns. The Jets have the league’s worst touchdown-to-interception ratio defensively, with 29 passing scores allowed and only five interceptions, and it shows. They’ve given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fifth-most fantasy points (and most touchdowns) to tight ends, and the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Bishop Sankey had 25 yards last week on nine carries and continues to be wholly irrelevant in any way despite being the team’s lead back. To be fair, he doesn’t get a bunch of touches, with double-digit carries in just seven of 13 games this year. Maybe he’s the Titans future at running back and maybe not – what we do know is he’s not the present for fantasy owners against New York or any other team.

The Jets have been far better against the run than the pass this season, ranking fifth in the league in run defense and tied for seventh in rushing scores allowed. Though they have allowed three rushing scores to running backs over their last three games, New York has limited the damage done on the ground by those backs. Over their last seven games, they’ve allowed just one runner to break 60 yards, and that was the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles in Week 9, who had 78 yards on 20 carries.

Projections:
Jake Locker: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bishop Sankey: 45 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 60 rec yds
Nate Washington: 45 rec yds
Derek Hagan: 25 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Jets 17, Titans 13 ^ Top

Redskins at Giants - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: As of Friday morning the Redskins still don’t officially know who their quarterback is going to be this weekend, but pending medical clearance QB Colt McCoy (neck) is expected to once again earn the start. He will be evaluated Friday to determine if he’s at risk of further injury after being hurt in the fourth quarter last week, but after participating in practice on a limited basis Coach Jay Gruden says he expects McCoy to be the man under center. In the event McCoy is held out, QB Robert Griffin III will be tapped to start, and he would also be the first to fill in if McCoy starts but needs to be pulled for one reason or another. Regardless of who the quarterback is, Washington has larger injury concerns as WR DeSean Jackson (shin) is optimistically listed as Questionable and has yet to demonstrate he can run at full speed. He will likely be a game time decision, but chances are he won’t play a major role, if any, in the Week 15 matchup. His absence was a contributing factor to the team being shut out last week, but that did allow WR Pierre Garcon to post his first 90-yard game since the third week of the season. While the involvement of Jackson will necessarily and inversely affect Garcon on Sunday, the quarterback under center will likely play a large role in the degree of involvement for TE Jordan Reed. He has seen at least seven targets in each of the games started by McCoy, and only once in the other five games has he been thrown at more than six times. Especially with Jackson limited or even unavailable, a McCoy start could lead to a big day for Reed, but until the starting quarterback is determined it will be important to have a backup plan in place at the tight end position.

All it took for New York to earn a win in Week 14 was for them to play a team worse than them, and considering their opponent this weekend also has a worse record than they do, it’s possible the Giants pick up their second win in as many contests and almost guarantee that they won’t finish at the bottom of the NFC East. Their 11th ranked pass defense, and eighth in completion percentage allowed, will benefit from any uncertainties or absences which affect the Redskins passing game. In their Week 4 matchup, which was started by the only Washington quarterback not in line to see the field this weekend, the Giants forced four interceptions and held all wide receivers to less than 30 yards. The only players to surpass that total were a tight end and a backup running back, neither of whom figure to have an appreciable role in the second game of this season series. In addition to being stingy with respect to yardage, New York ranks in the top ten for both of touchdowns allowed and interceptions forced, making them one of the top all-around pass defenses in the league, and giving the Redskins yet another reason to worry about their aerial attack this weekend.

Running Game Thoughts: In many respects the Redskins have a reasonably effective rushing attack that is painfully underutilized. Despite ranking above average in both yards per carry and touchdowns scored, Washington barely escapes the bottom ten for yards gained per game, a byproduct of having more rushing attempts than just six other teams. Mostly because they tend to frequently be playing from behind, being forced to throw the ball to try to catch up, Redskins leading ball carrier RB Alfred Morris has attempted 20 or more rushes only four times this season and has never been given more than 23 carries in a single game. Despite that he still ranks as a top ten fantasy running back, almost entirely due to his consistent availability and the fact that he’s the primary rusher for a team that has stumbled their way into the endzone eleven times this season, seven by Morris. Beyond him only one non-quarterback is averaging six or more rushing yards per game, but the dynamic between him and the scrambling abilities of both McCoy and Griffin tend to open up favorable running lanes for the Redskins top ball carrier.

Finding running room has been something most opponents of the Giants have been able to do, as they rank as the third worst in yards allowed per game and the second worst in yards allowed per rush. They’re only slightly better at keeping ball carriers out of the endzone, tied for seventh worst, and though they’ve surrendered 11 scores on the ground they’ve given up just one receiving touchdown to running backs this season, which mercifully helps them rank as the tenth most permissive defense with respect to fantasy points allowed to running backs. The fact that they’ve been pretty good against passes out of the backfield should affect Morris little, as for the entire season he’s caught just 15 passes in 13 contests. Through the last eight games, covering their seven straight losses and the win last week, New York held just one opponent to fewer than 95 rushing yards and yielded an average of 157 yards per game, surrendering seven rushing touchdowns during that span. With the rest of the offense struggling it isn’t terribly likely that Morris will hit that total all by himself, but with contributions from several rushers it’s probable that the Redskins comfortably crack triple digits on the ground.

Projections:
Colt McCoy: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 15 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 85 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds
Andre Roberts: 45 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: While the Giants have finally snapped their losing streak, QB Eli Manning has yet to fully snap out of the funk he’s been in for nearly as long as the streak itself. Prior to their win last week New York hadn’t won since the fifth week of the season, but for at least the first two contests after the Week 8 bye, Manning was putting forth admirable performances even in defeat. In that pair of games ne threw for five touchdowns, no interceptions, and 607 yards; in the five games since then he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in just one contest and avoided interceptions just once as well. The only game which the Giants have won in that time was the matchup against the worst team they faced, the same game where Manning had the least impact on the contest. When the apparent recipe for success calls for the two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback to do as little as possible, the passing game is certainly in a sad state. The diamond amidst all that rough is rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr., who has six straight games with 90 or more receiving yards, including three with 130 or more, and he’s also score three touchdowns in those six games. No other pass catchers has more than one game with more than 60 receiving yards during that span, though WR Preston Parker and TE Larry Donnell each have a pair of scores in the last six game, each of whom are slowing edging WR Rueben Randle out of the offense.

Since their bye four weeks ago the Redskins have been averaging 282 passing yards allowed per game and have conceded ten passing touchdowns during that time, so while they may rank in the top 12 for the season, their recent performances are putting that in serious jeopardy. One area where Washington has been deficient all year has been in forcing interceptions, with only five to their credit through 13 games this season. They’ve also allowed the third most touchdowns through the air, a shortcoming which has only been exacerbated in the latest quartet of contests. Furthermore, their ranking near the middle of the sack table is all but fraudulent, with half of their 28 sacks coming in the first five games of the season, and ten of those coming in a Week 2 blowout victory. In their first meeting with New York, Manning was sacked only once and tossed one interception, but he threw for four touchdowns and tallied 300 passing yards, in what would kick off the Redskins prolonged stretch as the divisional cellar dwellers.

Running Game Thoughts: The single most critical fantasy battle of this Week 14 contest may not be between the teams themselves, but rather between RB Rashad Jennings (ankle) and the Giants willingness to allow him to handle a full workload. Despite being available last week rookie RB Andre Williams was given the start and racked up 27 total touches for 147 yards and a score, compared to just three touches for 22 yards for the veteran. Coach Tom Coughlin stated that he expects to increase the workload for Jennings against the Redskins but stopped short of declaring him the starter to asserting how many touches he’s likely to see. Since Williams played so well last week, albeit against a horrendous run defense, the rookie could steal touches from Jennings or even delay his return to the field by another week. Fantasy owners are hoping for anything but a time share, with Jennings clearly having the better upside, but unless some clarity is provided before game time then both runners carry appreciable risk. With the Giants fighting for little other than pride there seems to be little reason to risk the health of their top running back, but against a divisional rival most reasonable sensibilities can be tossed aside for the sake of pride, especially in from of the home crowd.

Regardless of who the ball carrier has been, at this point in the season New York can’t even crack the top 20 in rushing rankings, though their 11 touchdowns ties them for a top seven spot. Averaging just over 103 yards per game puts them right in line with what Washington allows on a weekly basis; their mark of 105 yards against ranks them as the 11th best run defense, and with eight touchdowns allowed that ties them for a spot in the top ten. After their bye in Week 10 the Redskins defense played a pair of stellar games against the run, yielding just 114 rushing yards combined in those two contests. In the two weeks following that though Washington has allowed 125 rushing yards or more in each game, more than twice as many yards as they allowed in the games prior. Though the Redskins haven’t won any of those four contests, the two games where they were best against the run were the ones where they lost by the slimmest margins. Presumably, if they’re able to limit the Giants on the ground then they should at least be able to make the game competitive, and even though they might not emerge victorious, at least they won’t be blown out by New York for the second time this season.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 45 rush yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Preston Parker: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 17 ^ Top

Dolphins at Patriots - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: After an uninspiring loss in Week 14 the Dolphins are all but eliminated from the playoff picture. Though mathematically they are still alive, they’re a game out of the second Wildcard spot with only three left to play, and the teams in front of Miami own tiebreakers over them in addition to having an easier schedule. Much like in the standings, the Dolphins have a difficult time making strides in the game as well, especially through the air. Only one of the passing touchdowns has come from outside of 20 yards, with QB Ryan Tannehill throwing 20 of his 21 scores from the redzone. In each of the last six games the Miami signal caller has completed over 69.5% of his passes but has not gained 40 yards on any single play. In three of the last six games Tannehill threw for one or zero touchdowns, and only once during that sextet of contests has he thrown for more than 240 yards. Continuing the trend established in Week 9, rookie WR Jarvis Landry once again outperformed veteran WR Mike Wallace, with the former catching three more passes for 16 more yards, increasing his margin for both statistics over the last six weeks. Beyond those two receivers, and low-ceiling TE Charles Clay, the passing game is spread too thin to count on consistent contributions from anyone else.

Unlike their Week 1 matchup, the revenge game of this series will be played in Foxboro and will include the previously-suspended CB Brandon Browner; both factors will heavily favor the Patriots. The deciding factor at the beginning of the season wasn’t in the aerial attack, but because the ground game was so effective New England was unable to pressure Tannehill and surrendered two scores compared to just one each of sacks and interceptions. With both Browner and CB Darrelle Revis available to neutralize the top two Miami receiving threats, the front seven will be much more able to focus on the run and to fabricate a pass rush. On the season the Dolphins passing game barely escapes the bottom third of the league and consistently represents no real deep threat, encouraging the secondary to play tight man coverage and counting on the receivers to create space for themselves. Against a better than average New England pass defense, Tannehill will likely be challenged both through the air and at the line of scrimmage.

Running Game Thoughts: The Miami rushing attack peaked early this season, as in the first game of the season. Hardly a coincidence, the planned starter (Knowhson Moreno) played in only one complete game before being sent to Injured Reserve; that too was the first game of the season. After a slow decline the Dolphins have found themselves averaging fewer than 82 yards per game on the ground over the last five contests, and during that time they haven’t beaten a team currently in legitimate playoff contention. The leader of the lackluster backfield is RB Lamar Miller, and though he’s only surpassed 80 rushing yards twice this year and has scored just seven total touchdowns, he still ranks as the 12th best fantasy running back. Since players ranked 13-17 are either on Injured Reserve, missed time earlier this season, or only saw garbage time work until the midpoint of the season, Miller can safely be called the least inspiring of the running backs who have been on the field for the entire season. While in the NFL the biggest part of ability is availability, for fantasy football his pedestrian weekly contributions have likely hurt owners more than they’ve helped. Miller has scored only once in the past five weeks and has just one 100-yard game to his name this season; in the fantasy playoffs there is minimal use for a running back who isn’t likely to earn double digit points during this most critical time.

Considering that New England hasn’t allowed a touchdown to a running back since Week 9, on the ground or through the air, the chances of Miller finding the endzone, and thus buoying his fantasy value, are incredibly slim. This season the Patriots are allowing an average of 106 yards per game, but in the four weeks since their bye that number has dropped to 73, and only one team has hit triple digits. Despite losing a key linebacker, New England has improved against the run over the latter half of the season, which correlates with the addition of Browner to the active roster. In the seven games with him active, the Patriots are 6-1, with their only loss coming on the road against a divisional leader. In the six games without him they were 4-2; both losses were to teams all but certain to miss the playoffs. The physical style of defense Browner brings to the passing game tends to free up a safety or linebacker to help in run defense, and with adjustments made during the bye in Week 10 the Patriots seem to have found the right balance to stop both phases of the offense. The Dolphins run game is fading away as the run defense of New England is growing stronger, neither of which should evoke optimism for Miami.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Lamar Miller: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Damien Williams: 5 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 45 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Though on the road QB Tom Brady has been noticeably less proficient, from the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium the Patriots signal caller has thrown for 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 304 yards through the air. These performances have helped lead New England to an unblemished home record and have given them the inside track for the number one overall AFC playoff spot. Even with the discrepancies between home and away games, Brady has led the Patriots to a top seven ranking in passing yards, top four in touchdowns thrown, and the fewest interceptions for any team with more than 435 passing attempts (league average is 456). Of the teams averaging 250 yards or more through the air, New England has the lowest average number of yards gained per pass, suggesting that even without big plays Brady is still able to move the ball down the field with relative ease. There are three Patriots pass catchers who average more than 55 receiving yards per game, and have scored at least three touchdowns, recorded six or more gains of at least 20 yards, and converted at least 40 first downs. Leading the way in all categories is TE Rob Gronkowski, with WR Brandon LaFell representing the deep threat and WR Julian Edelman being the more frequently utilized possession target. Any given Sunday may see a game plan which seeks to bring other pass catchers into focus, but with two top 25 receivers and the number one overall tight end by a considerable margin, these three are by far the most fantasy relevant.

If the Dolphins are going to complete the season sweep they’re going to need to find a way to prevent Brady from recording his tenth straight multi-score game, and with a withering secondary that seems to be an unlikely proposition. The latest casualty is S Louis Delmas (ACL), who was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week. Though the return of CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) after missing four games will provide a significant boost, he figures to do little in the way of limiting Gronkowski. With a deep threat, a shifty slot receiver, and perhaps the greatest physical mismatch in the NFL all running through the secondary, Miami will have its hands full regardless of how they decide to match up. In the most recent contest, at home, the Dolphins allowed the 15th ranked passing attack to score twice and gain nearly 270 yards through the air; Miami also surrendered a rushing score to the quarterback. Though the Dolphins have grown accustomed to facing top tier signal callers they have yet to beat a top ten fantasy quarterback since the upset in Week 1 which was dominated by the running game. With the Patriots at full health and Miami at anything but, the second leg of this season series will be significantly less kind to the Dolphins.

Running Game Thoughts: Where Brady tends to be most dangerous is in the play action game, which means when the rushing attack gets going then he can do the most damage to a defense. With a below average ground game New England hasn’t been able to force many opponents to respect the run for most of the season, but since their bye the Patriots have shown a dedication to the rushing attack even if it hasn’t been the most productive. Following the monstrous 246 yards performance in Week 11, New England has yet to top 90 yards but have gained no fewer than 84, recording three rushing scores from those three contests. Since being acquired by the team RB LeGarrette Blount has been the unquestioned workhorse of the New England backfield, receiving 60% of all carries and gaining 77% of the rushing yards; he has been given more touches in each of his games with the Patriots than in any of his games on his previous team, making him one of the best late-season fantasy finds from the waiver wire.

Even though New England averages just 109 rushing yards per game, and has been noticeably below that during their latest trio of contests, a matchup with the Dolphins figures to put their rushing woes behind them. After being decidedly above average against the run for the majority of the season, Miami has allowed 661 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground in its past three games, surrendering more than 175 yards in each contest. During that time the leading running back has averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry and has either found the endzone or broken 100 yards. In the last three contests no first or second string ball carrier has averaged fewer than 3.9 yards per attempt, and five different ball carriers averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry with a minimum of five touches. Miami has been dominated at the line of scrimmage, and their deficiencies on the ground have allowed opposing quarterbacks to take advantage of the defense as they overcommit to stopping the run. Only the league’s worst passing attack failed to score fewer than two passing touchdowns in addition to dominating the ground game. With Blount in the backfield and Brady under center, the Dolphins are at risk of being blown out in all phases of the game.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 320 pass yds, 3 TDs, 10 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Shane Vereen: 10 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 65 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 105 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 10 ^ Top

Packers at Bills - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: If ever there was a model of offensive efficiency, QB Aaron Rodgers may very well be it. He has committed the fewest turnovers of any quarterback, has the greatest yards per attempt average in the league, and despite not leading in either yardage or touchdowns he is the second highest scoring fantasy quarterback. By limiting mistakes the Green Bay signal caller has rewritten the history books with the greatest touchdown to interception ratio and the lowest career interception percentage. Having two top flight pass catchers certainly doesn’t hurt, with WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb each hauling in double-digit touchdown catches this season and averaging better than 75 yards per game; both are top ten fantasy receivers. Though a “chicken verses egg” could be made it’s hard to argue against the collective greatness of the passing game with Rodgers as the unquestioned leader of the Packers offense. With so many touchdowns and big plays there are a number of pass catchers who get involved in the aerial attack, though one has started to separate himself from the remainder of the pack. WR Davante Adams has recorded 70 yards or scored a touchdown in six of the last nine games, but with Nelson and Cobb frequently seeing the lion’s share of opportunities it’s hard to suggest the team’s third receiver makes for a viable fantasy play.

Since their bye in Week 9 the Packers have rattled off five straight wins, though four of those games came at home. The closest of those contests, and the one in which Green Bay scored the fewest number of points, was the lone road game during that stretch. They’re just 3-3 away from Lambeau this season, including two losses against teams with solid defensive lines, talented pass rushers, and quality players in the secondary. Those elements accurately describe the Bills, and while it’s hard to imagine anyone stopping Rodgers, it’s possible that Week 15 presents an extra challenge for the most efficient offense in the NFL. If the Packers are able to win this weekend it will be the first time that the franchise has won on the road in Buffalo; the Bills the only franchise to have not lost a home contest to Green Bay. In order to do so Rodgers and company will have to overcome the league sack leaders and the only team who has allowed fewer touchdowns than they’ve forced interceptions. Buffalo hasn’t surrendered a passing touchdown in three straight games and have yielded only two through the air in the last six contests. The Bills may not be able to pull off the win, but at a minimum they’ve got the talent to force Green Bay to shy away from the aerial attack, which could possibly be enough to disrupt the fantasy playoff hopes of anyone relying on Rodgers for another spectacular outing.

Running Game Thoughts: In addition to being incredibly efficient through the air, Rodgers is also quite economical with his legs as well. With fewer than 40 rushing attempts this season he has 17 first downs, the second most of any quarterback, and does the vast majority of this damaged from scrambles. The primary ball carrier is RB Eddie Lacy (hip), who is officially listed as Questionable but all indications are that he’ll be fully able to participate in the game this weekend; an absence would be his first of the year. After suffering through a few slow weeks at the beginning of the season, the second year ball carrier has catapulted himself toward the top of fantasy rankings. Starting in Week 4, Lacy has averaged better than one score and 107 yards from scrimmage per game, and aside from one matchup he has earned at least ten fantasy points by even the most conservative of scoring systems. Even with his productivity the Packers are still barely above the league rushing average for the season, gaining 114 yards per game on the ground. Other than Lacy only RB James Starks sees the field with any regularity, and even at that his touches are generally limited outside of garbage time.

Just as the Bills are equipped to challenge Green Bay through the air, the other facet of the offense is likely to have an equally difficult on the ground against the top ten run defense of Buffalo. The Bills are one of just eight teams to surrender fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, and they also rank in the top ten for yards allowed per rush. On offense the Packers are in the top ten for rushing efficiency so the Week 15 matchup should pit units of even strength against each other, likely resulting in moderate gains with a handful of impressive stops. Buffalo ranks in the top quarter for fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs, so even though Lacy contributes in both phases of the offense, the Bills have faced similar talent earlier in the season and were largely able to contain it. Three of the top six fantasy running backs have challenged the Bills run defense and were held at or noticeably below their season averages. Considering that the alternative is encouraging Rodgers to beat them through the air, Buffalo may be less inclined to totally shut down the Packers rushing attack, but if they’re able to make Green Bay one dimensional they should feel confident in their abilities to either rush the quarterback or prevent Lacy from having a monstrous day to make up for the hobbled passing attack.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 20 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 65 rush yds, 20 rec yds
James Starks: 10 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Excluding the two games played against the least imposing pass defense in the league, QB Kyle Orton has thrown eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in his seven starts this season. Twice he has gained more than 300 yards, twice he fell short of 200, and the remaining three times were all north of 250. Putting that all together Orton is generally below average, sometimes painfully so, but occasionally he’ll put together a solid stat line. While no one in the fantasy playoffs should be relying on Orton to bring you to the championship, his top pass catcher WR Sammy Watkins is likely at the center of a potentially critical lineup decision. In the seven games started by Orton, the rookie phenom has topped 120 receiving yards thrice and has failed to surpass 35 yards on five occasions, ultimately averaging 69 yards per game and pulling in three scores during that time. However, all of those touchdowns came in consecutive weeks and Watkins hasn’t visited the endzone in five straight contests. In addition to going scoreless, Watkins was held to four straight games at 35 or fewer yards before once again exploding for 127 in the most recent contest. With the inconsistencies of the offense and Orton not possessing elite arm talent, the rookie pass catcher is an ill-advised risk outside of desperate fantasy lineup situations.

Even though the Packers were just burned for 259 receiving yards and a touchdown last week, all to one receiver, there are a number of reasons why Watkins won’t be able to provide an encore performance this weekend. To begin, the receiver doing the damage against Green Bay in Week 14 currently leads the league in receiving yards; Watkins is barely in the top 25. The passing offense last week is the fifth most proficient and has attempted the fourth most throws in the league; Buffalo is very near or just slightly above the midpoint for the league in those respects. Perhaps most importantly though, last week the Packers were challenged by an established veteran receiver and a known playmaker in addition to the explosive talent who burned them, whereas Buffalo as an impressive rookie leading the way and a corps of serviceable though ultimately pedestrian receivers all fighting for the number two spot. Five different defenses, none of which rank better than 16th against the pass, have been able to keep Watkins from recording more than three fantasy points, and even with a recently-burned secondary it can reasonably be assumed that the Packers will find a way to become the sixth defense to do so.

Running Game Thoughts: In addition to being limited through the air, the Bills have one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, ranking in the bottom quarter for yards gained per game as well as yards gained per attempt. Only three teams have scored fewer touchdowns on the ground than Buffalo, and two leading rushers for the Bills have run for only three combined scores this season. At the head of this reluctant rushing attack is RB Fred Jackson, who despite appearing in 11 different contests this season has still yet to surpass 400 rushing yards. Slightly behind him is RB Anthony Dixon, with a slightly better per carry average but still fewer than 375 yards on the ground from 10 games in which he recorded rushing attempts. These two top backs have combined for 27 rushing first downs through this point in the season, and though Dixon has limited utility through the air, Jackson has salvaged his fantasy usefulness by contributing out of the backfield to the effect of 34 yards per game. Even earning a majority of the touches, with right at 69 total yards from scrimmage per game and limited potential to find the endzone, Jackson is little more than dead weight at the end of a fantasy bench except in the most grave of situations.

If there’s a silver lining to the poor Bills rushing attack, it may be that they face Green Bay this weekend. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Buffalo look to run the ball as frequently as possible to try to keep the ball away from the Packers high powered offense. Aiding that cause is a Green Bay run defense that ranks as the eighth worst in the league, allowing 129 yards on the ground per game and 4.4 per carry, ranking in the bottom six. The Packers have yielded 11 rushing touchdowns this season, more than 20 other teams. While all of these numbers seem to favor the Bills rushing attack, any optimism still hinges on the Green Bay offense getting off to a slow start, and their defense generally trying to prevent the pass rather than load up against the run. Considering how offensively inept Buffalo has been for most of the season, combined with the torrid pace the Packers have been on offensively, betting on the Bills to establish the run game is a gamble that is likely to leave Jackson fantasy owners wishing they’d laid their chips elsewhere.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Fred Jackson: 30 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Anthony Dixon: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yds, 1 TD
Sammy Watkins: 40 rec yds
Robert Woods: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Packers 26, Bills 17 ^ Top

Cowboys at Eagles - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: For as much attention as the rushing attack has earned this season, the success of the Cowboys has been most closely linked with the performance of QB Tony Romo. In the three games which Dallas has lost, Romo has failed to throw multiple touchdowns, and only once in their nine victories has he fallen short of that mark. In winning efforts, Romo has recorded 23 touchdowns and only three interceptions, completing at least 65.5% of his passes in each contest. Dallas is the only team in the NFL to be undefeated on the road; every other team has at least two losses away from home, so even if the Cowboys fall short on Sunday night they’ll still be the league’s best road team. For the season Dallas is averaging just 230 passing yards per game but with 8.2 yards per attempt they’re behind just one other team. The star of the aerial attack is WR Dez Bryant, with twice as many receiving yards and nearly twice as many touchdown catches as any other Dallas pass catcher. His prominence has led to rollercoaster seasons for the rest of the receiving targets, with WR Terrance starting hot but nearly disappearing over the past five weeks and WR Cole Beasley approximately taking his place. Even the steady TE Jason Witten has been overshadowed by Bryant, but after the first month of the season Witten has wiggled himself into the starting conversation in most fantasy leagues.

When these teams met on Thanksgiving Philadelphia held Romo below 200 yards passing, forced two interceptions, recorded four sacks, and allowed no touchdowns through the air. Only Bryant had a reasonable day from a fantasy perspective, but with just over 70 yards that was significantly below his expected output. The Eagles owned the line of scrimmage and spent much of Thursday afternoon in the offensive backfield; Dallas has surrendered four sacks only two other times this season, including another divisional loss and a sloppy win over one of the worst teams in the league. Though the Eagles are the second most proficient team at recording sacks, on the back end they’re one of the worst, allowing 258 passing yards per game a total of 26 touchdowns through the air this season; both are easily in the bottom quarter of the league. If the Cowboys are able to shore up their pass protection for this revenge game, Bryant and company should be able to run free through the secondary and make amends for their Thanksgiving shortcomings, all but securing the NFC East crown in the process.

Running Game Thoughts: Despite being a Cowboy for all four of his NFL season, RB DeMarco Murray has competed against Philadelphia only four times, and this will be the first season where he’s appeared in both of the team’s matchups. In previous entanglements with this divisional rival, Murray has never gained 85 or more rushing yards in a single game, and has found the endzone only twice in those four contests. For this season Murray has been far and away the league’s leading rusher, having roughly 30% more yards than the next closest ball carrier, and has benefitted greatly running behind the most heralded offensive line in the NFL. Although the Cowboys average 149 rushing yards per game, an incredible 124 of them belong to Murray, so their top three rushing ranking is almost entirely contingent on his availability. Though he hasn’t missed any time this season, the first time in his career to do so, it’s not hard to imagine that if he weren’t to be carrying the ball then the entire rushing attack might simply grind to a halt. After it seemed that steps were being taken to lessen his workload, Murray posted career highs in both carries and receptions despite Dallas holding a commanding lead throughout the contest. It was great for his fantasy owners in Week 14, but any sort of correction or overreaction this week will certainly cost those same owners in the playoffs.

While Murray being a workhorse has made him the top fantasy ball carrier this season, averaging nearly 18 fantasy points per game, it has also placed him at the center of defensive game plans. Prior to the career marks he set last week, the last time Murray met or surpassed his season fantasy points average was in Week 8; interestingly that is also the last time he’s fumbled. Defensively Philadelphia is marginally below average against the run, allowing 114 yards per game, but on a per carry basis they’re a top ten unit, allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt. Only seven teams have defended more carries than the Eagles and just nine teams have allowed fewer touchdowns, suggesting that they’re the ground equivalent of a “bend but don’t break” defense. Considering that the Cowboys employ a physical and high-volume style of running game, Philadelphia seems perfectly suited to absorb those blows, as demonstrated by their victory in Week 13 when Murray has held to a season low 73 rushing yards. It is probably in the Eagles best interest to shut down the rushing attack, force Romo into passing situations, and then allowing their pass rushers to try to get after the quarterback.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 240 pass yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 85 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Joseph Randle: 10 rush yds
Dez Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Cole Beasley: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: A win on Sunday night would keep Philadelphia at the top of the NFC East, and give them a head-to-head tie breaker over their only potential competition thanks to a season sweep of the Cowboys. In order to do that the passing game is going to have to be much better than they were last week, starting with QB Mark Sanchez. The Eagles signal caller completed only ten passes in Week 14, gaining less than 100 yards through the air, though he did manage to throw two touchdowns. He also was sacked three times, tossed and interception, and completed only 50% of his attempts. While the offense as a whole failed quite spectacularly, the wide open pass attack was anything but; no receiver gained 40 yards and only four different players caught a pass. The lone bright spot of the offense was TE Zach Ertz, who fractionally surpassed his season yardage average and found the endzone for just the third time this year. The Eagles will look to bounce back on Sunday night, hopefully resembling the top ten passing offense they’ve been in 2014 despite having to switch quarterbacks halfway through the season. The greatest deficiency of the passing game has been the turnovers; no team has thrown more interceptions than Philadelphia. Compared to the man he replaced, Sanchez has helped lead the team to more explosive plays, but has also been responsible for more mistakes, making him a high risk, moderate reward fantasy prospect.

The Philadelphia signal caller has had only one game this season where he didn’t throw an interception or fumble the ball, but that did occur in Week 13 against the Cowboys, so there may be a small bit of optimism that perhaps history could repeat itself. Seeing as how the Dallas defense ranks in the bottom quarter against the pass and has recorded more sacks than only three other teams, Sanchez becomes a somewhat more appealing option for desperate fantasy owners. In their previous contest the Eagles threw just 29 passes, completing 69% of those attempts. Nearly half of the total receiving yards went to WR Jeremy Maclin, and his counterpart WR Jordan Matthews topped 50 and scored a touchdown. Sanchez was sacked just once and did not throw an interception. Excluding the Thanksgiving matchup with the Eagles, Dallas has surrendered at least 338 yards and two scores through the air to opponents since their Week 11 bye. Philadelphia has done well to protect their quarterback all season long, conceding fewer sacks than all but five teams, and if they’re able to once again keep a clean pocket then Sanchez should be able to pick and choose the shots he takes against an opportunistic but underwhelming Cowboys secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: On paper the rushing offenses of Dallas and Philadelphia aren’t radically different, with the notable exception of yards gained per carry, which favors the Cowboys by close to a yard when meaningless quarterback runs are eliminated. The other major difference of course is the involvement of more than one running back, where the Eagles will actually use more than one ball carrier, something which has worked to the benefit of RB LeSean McCoy since Week 6. In the four games where McCoy has rushed for more than 115 yards, he carried between 22 and 25 times, and other running backs accounted for no fewer than 14 combined carries. In the other five games McCoy was given little relief, with other ball carriers recording no more than eight rushes in those contest. By keeping McCoy fresh and rotating other players into the backfield, the O-line continues to wear on the defensive front, so when McCoy makes it back onto the field he’s a step faster than most of the players looking to tackle him. On the season McCoy has averaged 82 rushing yards per game and has found the endzone four times, with three of those scores and six above average performances occurring in the last eight contests; prior to Week 6 he never rushed for 82 yards and only once averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry. For the Eagles and for fantasy owners, McCoy is coming into form at the perfect time.

Dallas probably isn’t looking forward to facing the Eagles running game for the second time in three weeks, not after McCoy burned their defense for 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. For the season the Cowboys have been slightly below average on the basis of yardage, both per game and per attempt, but only three teams have surrendered more touchdown runs. Historically McCoy has done quite well in one game each season against Dallas, but his results in the other contest have usually left much to be desired. If that trend holds true, he’s probably in line for around 60 yards on approximately 17 touches, but with as poor as Dallas looked against the run on Thanksgiving it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to contain the Philadelphia rushing attack just two weeks later. The strength of the Eagles offense is in spreading out the defense and taking advantage of whatever gaps exist, either through the air or on the ground. Since Dallas is thinnest in the secondary the biggest opportunities will likely exist on the arm of Sanchez, though McCoy will certainly see enough touches to turn in a solid fantasy performance.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 210 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 95 rush yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Eagles 28 ^ Top

Raiders @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: After going over an entire calendar year without a win, something might finally be clicking for the Oakland Raiders. The team has won two of their past three games, both over teams that are currently competing for a playoff appearance. One of those wins even came against their Week 15 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs. Much of that has been because of the improved play from rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Carr threw for 426 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in those two victories. Most recently, he completed 22 of his 28 pass attempts against a very good San Francisco defense. Tight end Mychal Rivera showed up in a huge way against the 49ers, making seven catches for a season-high 109 yards and a touchdown. Rivera is a playmaking tight end who has disappeared at times, but still represents more upside than many of the low-end starters who fantasy owners have in their lineup. Wide receivers James Jones and Andre Holmes have both struggled recently as neither player has gone over 60 yards receiving since both did it back in Week 8.

This improving but still subpar passing game has a difficult matchup here in Week 15 as they're up against a Kansas City defense that has been very good against opposing passing games so far this season. They've only allowed one quarterback (Peyton Manning) to throw for more than two touchdowns against them in a single game and they haven't allowed a single quarterback to pass for more than 270 yards against them. Carr and the Raiders don't have enough consistency in their passing game to be trusted by fantasy owners at the moment, especially against a good Kansas City defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps the most exciting aspect of the Oakland Raiders offense this season has been the emergence of young running back Latavius Murray. Murray, who spent most of the season stuck down the depth chart behind veterans Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew has given life to an otherwise worthless running game. His 6.5 yards per carry average is over three full yards per carry better than McFadden and four yards per carry better than Jones-Drew. While McFadden is still getting some touches, at least the Raiders seem to have completely given up on the Jones-Drew project in favor of giving Murray the majority of touches at the position as we head down the stretch. Murray took 23 carries in Week 14 as the Raiders defeated the 49ers and while he only ran for 76 yards, it came against one of the best run defenses in the league and it was enough to help the team get their second win.

In Week 15, Murray will be against a Kansas City defense that has been good in terms of total fantasy points conceded to opposing running games this season primarily because of the lack of touchdowns that those running backs have scored. The Chiefs have, however, surrendered over five yards per carry to opposing backs on the season. That includes a humiliatingly bad performance against Murray back in Week 12 when they allowed him to rush for 112 yards and two touchdowns against them on just four carries. Including that game, the Chiefs have given up a total of 508 yards rushing over their past three contests, which has to give fantasy owners some optimism heading into this matchup.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
James Jones: 50 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Those who expected some sort of breakout fantasy season in 2014 for Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith have been disappointed, but his numbers this year have remained good enough to keep the Chiefs near playoff contention and that seems to be enough to keep Andy Reid content. He has been slightly better than usual as of late as he has 17, 12 and 15 fantasy points (standard scoring) over his past three games, but those numbers are still not much to be excited about. His lack of passing down the field has meant fewer interceptions than most quarterbacks (six on the year), but it has also essentially made his entire receiver group fantasy irrelevant. Dwayne Bowe is the only Kansas City wide receiver who has made more than 30 receptions on the season and, perhaps most bafflingly of all, not a single wide receiver on the team has made a touchdown reception in 2014. Only tight end Travis Kelce has any fantasy value whatsoever, as he leads the team with 51 catches for 688 yards and four touchdowns. His seven catches for 110 yards this past week is a nice number, but he has now gone five straight games without scoring a touchdown. Smith did perform fairly well when these teams played a few weeks back as he threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Although it wasn't good enough for the Chiefs to get a win, it was enough to be one of his better fantasy games of the season. Still, the Raiders are much better against the pass than they are against the run here in 2014 and one would have to assume that the Chiefs will run the ball heavily in this contest. Kelce is the only player in this passing game who should be in fantasy lineups against the Raiders.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles has been one of the most consistent, high-end scorers in all of fantasy football for the past few seasons. He missed some time earlier in the year, but has otherwise been an elite option at the running back position and has been in double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 10 games (standard scoring) since coming back from that injury. There may not be a better no-brainer play in fantasy football than Charles, especially in PPR formats. But unfortunately, that obvious start appeal may not be so simple here in Week 15. Charles missed practice early in the week with a swollen knee and was limited on Thursday with that same injury. He had 121 total yards and scored twice in the loss to the Cardinals in Week 14, but this injury needs to be monitored heading into this extremely desirable matchup against the Raiders.

Oakland ranks 28th in the league in fantasy points conceded to opposing running backs this season. They've only held three teams to fewer than 90 rushing yards in a game so far while also giving up 17 total touchdowns to the position on the year. Charles had a nice game where he went off for 122 total yards and a touchdown when these teams played a few weeks ago despite the Chiefs losing. If he can play this week, he is certainly one of the top running back plays. If Charles is unable to go, Knile Davis instantly becomes a RB1 for fantasy purposes and must be started in what should be a great matchup.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 10 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 60 rec yds

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: When you look at Peyton Manning's 2014 season, the numbers are incredible. 3910 yards, 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. For most quarterbacks, that would be a career year...and he still has three games to play. He's on pace to be one of the highest-scoring fantasy players in the history of the game again this year, but that doesn't tell the story of what's been happening lately. After averaging over 323 passing yards per game in his first 11 games this season, Manning has fallen apart over the past two games. In Week 13, he passed for what was then a season-low 179 yards and two touchdowns. We thought it could only get better from there, but that was not the case. A week later, he passed for just 172 yards and no touchdowns -- the first time that he has failed to throw a touchdown pass in a game while wearing a Broncos uniform. Manning now has fantasy owners a bit worried here in Week 15 as he heads to San Diego to face a team that has had his number a bit over the course of his career. Manning did beat them up for 286 yards and three scores without throwing an interception when these teams played earlier this season, but his 27-19 career touchdown-interception ratio against the Chargers should not be disregarded. Tight end Julius Thomas, who hasn't played since Week 11, should be back on the field for this important divisional game and that should go a long way toward improving what has been a weaker-than-usual Denver offense over the past few games. Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas has seen his numbers fall in each of his past six games, but remains a must-start for fantasy purposes due to the tremendous upside he possesses. Fellow wideout Emmanuel Sanders is also a must-start as he has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league this season at the wide receiver position.

Running Game Thoughts: One of the most pleasant fantasy surprises this season has been Denver running back C.J. Anderson. Anderson, who started the season third or even fourth on the depth chart behind Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Juwan Thompson, has exploded since being given the starting job back in Week 10. His fantasy point totals have quickly turned him into a must-start for fantasy owners and he is yet another player in the long line of running backs who have performed exceptionally well in the same backfield as Peyton Manning. Anderson rushed for just 2.3 yards per carry against the Bills in Week 14, but still managed to put a huge smile onto the faces of his fantasy owners as he was able to get into the end zone three times. It was also the first game since earning the starting job that he did not catch a single pass in, but Anderson remains a high-quality option in PPR formats as he has been catching numerous passes in most games.

In Week 15, Anderson will be running against a defense that has been middle-of-the-pack for most of the season but really doesn't have anything that should make fantasy owners worried about starting the stud running back. Ronnie Hillman had 138 yards of offense and Thompson scored two touchdowns against the Chargers when these teams played in Week 8, so this is a defense that the Broncos have proven that they can have success against out of the running back position.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 290 pass yds, 2 TD
C.J. Anderson: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Earlier this season, there were some analysts who were making a case for Philip Rivers to be considered for the MVP of the league. His numbers were incredible and the Chargers were close to keeping pace with the Broncos in the division. That chatter has quieted significantly as of late, however, as Rivers has not been the same quarterback in the second half of the season that he was in the first half. Since the midway point, Rivers has thrown for an average of just 239 yards per game with six touchdowns and six interceptions over five contests. Those numbers are barely good enough to win against average teams, let alone the Broncos who he will be up against here in Week 15. Rivers did throw for 252 yards and three touchdowns against Denver when these teams played earlier this season, but he also threw a pair of interceptions and the Chargers went on to lose by two touchdowns. What has been more frustrating than Rivers' struggles, though, has been trying to determine which one of his pass-catchers is actually going to show up on a week-to-week basis. We thought that Keenan Allen was finally starting to break out again after back-to-back 100-plus yard performances in Weeks 12 and 13, but then completely destroyed fantasy owners with a despicable two-catch, three-yard performance against the Patriots in Week 14. Perhaps the most consistent receiver of the bunch has been wideout Malcom Floyd who has made at least three catches in every game since Week 4. Unfortunately, he has just one game of more than four catches over that span, so it's hard to trust him for any sort of fantasy production. Allen will likely be the only fantasy-relevant fantasy wide receiver for the Chargers here in Week 15 as he did catch nine passes for 73 yards and a touchdown when he played the Broncos in Week 8; while tight end Antonio Gates remains a low-end starter at the tight end position.

Running Game Thoughts: The running back position in San Diego has been a bit of a revolving door this season, but as long as Ryan Mathews is healthy, it appears that he is the lead dog in this backfield. Mathews has taken double-digit carries in each of his four games since returning from injury while Branden Oliver has just 23 total carries over that span and hasn't caught a pass in either of his past two games. Donald Brown has been taking some of the snaps that would normally go to Oliver over the past few weeks, which has added to the frustration of fantasy owners who would just like to see Mathews get more total touches. That isn't likely to happen anytime soon, though, as the Chargers are likely limiting Mathews' touches due to his long injury history. In fact, Mathews is currently nursing an ankle injury which has held him out of practice all week.

If he is able to play, Mathews will face a stingy Broncos run defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league this season. Not only that, but they've held opposing running backs from rushing for a touchdown in eight of their past nine games. This is one of the worst possible matchups for a fantasy running back and with Mathews hobbled, it's just not worth the risk. Find another option for him this week. If Mathews does not play, look for Brown and Oliver to split touches with Brown getting the higher end of the split. Like Mathews, however, neither player represents much upside for fantasy owners.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 31, Chargers 23 ^ Top

49ers @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It has been a disappointing season for the San Francisco 49ers. After being one of the best teams in the league over the past few seasons, the team is now hanging by a thread, third in their division, hoping for a wild card playoff berth. The team finally fell to rock bottom this past week when they lost to arguably the worst team in the league, the Oakland Raiders. The 49ers scored just 13 points against a terrible Oakland defense and a lot of that has to fall onto the shoulders of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick completed just 18 of his 33 pass attempts for 174 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He also failed to rush for even 30 yards for the seventh straight contest. Vernon Davis remains a fantasy non-factor while Michael Crabtree has just one game of double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) since Week 6.

Things won't get any easier this week, either, as the 49ers matchup against a team that held them to just three points, two weeks ago...and now it's in Seattle. The Seahawks started the season off slowly on the defensive side of the ball, but have now shot all the way up to being the No. 1 fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks on the year. They've held opposing quarterbacks to fewer than 150 passing yards in four straight contests and under 200 yards in seven of their past eight contests. That includes a crushing performance in Week 13 then they held Kaepernick to just 121 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions; their best game of the year. Needless to say, this is not a good time to start trusting that Kaepernick is suddenly going to turn things around. Keep him on your bench here against the Seahawks. Only Anquan Boldin should be considered a viable fantasy option and even he is a low-end WR2.

Running Game Thoughts: We may be seeing the final carries of Frank Gore's career here as we head toward the end of 2014. The potential future Hall of Famer has had an amazing career, especially considering the fact that he was still productive when the team was at an all-time worst. But fantasy football owners don't get points for what a player has done in the past, and in 2014, Gore has been pretty bad. He's barely cracking the 4.0 yards per carry mark on the year and his three total touchdowns have held him out of even being a top-24 back; which means that he is relegated to only being a Flex option at this point. Worse yet, his lack of usage in the passing game has made him someone worth benching most weeks in PPR leagues.

That won't change as he goes up against Seattle here in Week 15. The Seahawks defense is back to playing like a world championship unit and they have held opposing running games to under 100 yards in all but two games this season; and those came against Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray. The 49ers running game seems to be completely useless at this point and they proved it just two weeks ago when Gore was held to 28 yards on 10 carries. You need to score points in the fantasy playoffs and this just does not look like a good situation for that to happen -- keep Gore on your bench.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Frank Gore: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: 210 passing yards per game and 17 passing touchdowns in 13 games doesn't sound great on paper. In fact, it sounds like the kind of numbers that bad teams typically get out of backup, journeyman quarterbacks...and that's where Russell Wilson currently sits as we head into Week 15. Wilson's passing numbers haven't been spectacular from a fantasy standpoint, but what he has been able to do is keep the ball out of the hands of defenders. He's thrown only five picks on the year, which has allowed Seattle to stay in playoff contention despite some struggles early in the season. Not only has he played efficiently in the passing game, but Wilson is doing incredible things with his legs. His 727 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns are the kind of numbers that you typically only see out of running backs. Add that to his passing numbers and Wilson suddenly goes from being a guy who's not on fantasy radars to being a player who is practically a must-start regardless of opponent. Wilson is the No. 4 fantasy quarterback in the league in standard scoring formats and has been hot as of late, posting fantasy totals of at least 16 points in five straight contests. None of his receivers have been particularly consistent, but it is worth noting that Doug Baldwin caught five passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks' big win over the Eagles in Week 14.

In Week 15, though, Wilson and the Seahawks will have a tough matchup against a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks fifth in fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing QB's. Wilson did throw for 236 yards and a touchdown while adding an additional 35 yards on the ground against the 49ers in Week 13, so there is some reason for optimism. Also, the 49ers just gave up a 254-yard, three touchdown day to the Raiders' Derek Carr. Wilson needs to be in fantasy lineups primarily because of his rushing ability, which is something that can quickly turn a mediocre fantasy day into a great one.

Running Game Thoughts: Following his 86-yard day, Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has now broken the 1,000-yard mark on the season for his fourth time in four full seasons with the Seahawks. Lynch now sits as the No. 3 running back in all of fantasy football and his 13 total touchdowns are second at the position, behind only Jamaal Charles. Lynch's increased usage in the passing game this season has also given him a bit of a fantasy boost as he is now on pace for his most receptions since his 2008 year with the Bills. He has been putting up big yardage lately as well as he has averaged nearly 130 yards of total offense per game through the second half of the season. Earlier in the year, there were rumors of Lynch potentially losing snaps to younger backs, but that certainly has not been the case. Lynch is as much of a workhorse back as any player in the league which has allowed him to enjoy incredible consistency not just as an NFL running back, but also as a fantasy asset.

Here in Week 15, Lynch will be running against a team that strikes fear in the hearts of most running backs, the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco has been one of the league's best defenses for the entire time that Lynch has been in Seattle, but that hasn't seemed to affect Lynch whatsoever. In fact, Lynch has averaged nearly 100 yards rushing per game against the 49ers over his past six games against them. This includes a 104-yard performance against them just two weeks ago. This isn't a great matchup, but Lynch is a good enough player to succeed anyway.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 50 rush yds, 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 13 ^ Top

Bengals at Browns - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton has had an extremely inconsistent season in 2014. When he’s been bad, he’s been very bad. Last week Dalton had one of his better games, albeit in a losing effort. He threw for 302 yards with 2 touchdown passes and an interception. He also ran for a 20-yard score. This week he’ll match up with the team he faced back in Week 9, where he had his worst game of the season. Dalton completed only 30% of his passes in “amassing” 86 yards, and he threw 3 interceptions. His team will obviously need better numbers this week as they hope to remain in contention for the AFC North crown. A.J. Green is back to dominating opposing defenses but the Bengals will likely have little shot to get revenge against the Browns if Green doesn’t win his matchup with cornerback Joe Haden. Dalton’s success has long been dependant on Green’s athletic ability. Outside of Matthew Stafford, no quarterback in the league may be as dependant on one player for his production as Dalton is on Green.

Cleveland was able to shut Green down in the last contest, but he did manage to be on the receiving end of 23 of Daltons 86 passing yards – so Green’s poor production merely a byproduct of Dalton’s ineffectiveness. Despite a difficult matchup with Haden, it’s hard to imagine that the Dalton to Green connection isn’t much more productive this time around. On the season Cleveland is allowing 231.1 passing yards per game but has allowed 19 touchdown passes against them.

Running Game Thoughts: Giovani Bernard did not suit up the last time these two teams met and with Andy Dalton playing at a historically bad level, the running game struggled as well. Bernard has been slowly worked back into the mix since returning from a hip injury, and has been outplayed by rookie Jeremy Hill. Outside of Week 9, Hill has played very well as the feature back while Bernard was out. He has shown far more power and inside running ability than Bernard and has actually produced more big plays as well. Hill does have a tendency of making foolish statements like calling out his coaching staff’s game plan or calling the Browns “not a good team” after being blown out by them. The Bengals need to find the right mix between their two headed rushing attack, as both are extremely talented and dangerous players. The talk heading into this week has been that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson would prefer to feature one back, and that back will supposedly be Hill. “I'm used to having one guy kind of dominate some carries because in order for backs to be really good, they've got to get lathered up to play,” Jackson said after Wednesday’s practice.

The Browns offer a favorable matchup for a team looking to establish the run, allowing 129.5 yards per game to opposing teams. This could be the key matchup this week.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 25 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
A.J. Green: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 60 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Johnny Football era starts in Cleveland this week as the team has finally decided to bench the struggling Brian Hoyer. Hoyer hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last three games while giving away 7 interceptions. Manziel has superior arm strength and mobility over the veteran, but the question will be whether he’s capable of reading a defense. He should be equally as fiery on the field, and should give the offense a spark like he did in Week 13 where he completed 5-of-8 passes for 62 yards and ran one in for a touchdown in relief of Hoyer. Josh Gordon has struggled a bit since his return from suspension. Those struggles are due in equal part to his rustiness and Hoyer’s poor play. Gordon has been targeted heavily since his return, but his unfamiliarity with the offense has seen him end up in the wrong spot at times and Hoyer has missed him badly when he’s been open. Tight End Jordan Cameron returned from his concussion and should see his role expand, as he gets worked back into the mix. With Gordon, Cameron, and Andrew Hawkins all healthy, Manziel shouldn’t have any excuses available if he plays poorly.

The Bengals’ defense has seen almost as many ups and downs as the team’s quarterback. What looked to be one of the league’s best defenses early, has struggled at times including last week against the Steelers. On the season, the team has allowed 247.5 passing yards per game, but has yielded only 14 touchdowns with 12 interceptions through 13 games.

Running Game Thoughts: The Browns’ running game hasn’t been the same since center Alex Mack was lost for the season. What was once a very productive unit has been merely average at best in recent weeks. With Ben Tate released and rookie Terrance West in the doghouse, fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell was given an opportunity to take over as the lead back, but a hip injury has likely kept him in a timeshare. Crowell has looked very good, showing excellent vision and good power and is the team’s preferred red-zone option. West hasn’t been totally tossed in the trash, however, after getting publically blasted by his coach for a bad fumble in the Buffalo game. In fact, it was West that got the start and most of the first half work in last week’s game. West finished with 15 carries compared to 14 for Crowell. It’s hard to predict this situation going forward so owners should continue to consider this a timeshare backfield and plan accordingly.

The Bengals have not been good at stopping the run, allowing 130.3 rushing yards per game while yielding 15 rushing touchdowns. The Browns would be wise to look to establish the run and protect their young quarterback against this defense. The last time these two teams faced off Ben Tate was still with the team and all three running backs managed very productive days while all managed to find the end-zone.

Projections:
Johnny Manziel: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 55 rush yds
Terrance West: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Isaiah Crowell: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Josh Gordon: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Hawkins: 45 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 55 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20 ^ Top

Jaguars at Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles has gone through the typical rookie struggles. His 16 interceptions lead the league in that category, despite only starting eleven games. On the positive side he is completing 61.2% of his throws, albeit by mainly throwing short range passes, and is averaging 224.2 passing yards per game. Bortles has gained 306 yards on the ground showing the athleticism that was a big part of his success on the college level. If he can cut down on his turnovers while attacking downfield a bit more, it’s looking like the Jaguars made a good choice at the top of this past NFL draft. Outside of veteran Cecil Shorts, who has missed time with injuries, Bortles is surrounded by an equally young supporting cast, with rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Huns seeing significant playing time when healthy. Allen Robison, out of Penn State, was the best rookie of the bunch, but is now lost for the season. In his absence, Lee has stepped up and has led the Jaguars in receptions the last two weeks and caught a 31-yard touchdown last week. Lee is slightly built and not particularly fast, but is a solid route runner with sure hands and should be a nice compliment to Robinson and perhaps even Justin Blackmon, should he ever be reinstated. For the rest of this season, however, this is not a passing game that should excite fantasy owners.

The Ravens’ pass defense has been a brutally bad unit this season. They are allowing 267.2 yards per game and have yielded 21 passing touchdowns. They aren’t likely to be tested this week, but it could be a game that gives the young passing attack some confidence going forward if Bortles can find some success.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars signed former Adrian Peterson backup, Toby Gerhart, to be their bellcow back this offseason, but you know what they say about the best made plane of mice and men? Gerhart suffered a bad ankle sprain in Week 1 and played through it but was very ineffective. When he did finally miss a game former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson came in and revitalized the rushing attack before hitting a wall, and seeing his production drop sharply. Robinson is now lost for the season with a mid-foot sprain, which should hand the job back to Gerhart. The Jaguars offensive line is subpar, and Gerhart’s lumbering style has not been suited to production, but he has been good in pass protection and will help in passing situations. Jordan Todman and rookie Storm Johnson should be in the mix for carries as well.

The Ravens’ run defense has been very strong, so the Jaguars should find it tough to establish any kind of running game this week. The unit is allowing a meager 84.5 rushing yards per game with only 7 rushing touchdowns surrendered.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 35 rush yd
Toby Gerhart: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Storm Johnson: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yards
Marqise Lee: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 35 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 45 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has played reasonably well throughout this season, doing enough to keep the Ravens in contention for the AFC North title. While he may technically not be worth the franchise quarterback money that he is being paid, he’s capable of winning games for the Ravens and he’s better than any other option available to the team. Flacco is completing 64% of his passes and has a very solid 22:9 TD:INT ratio, which makes him better than average in a time where the quarterback play in this league ranges from Hall of Fame level greatness to extremely poor. Torrey Smith wasn’t able to contribute last week due to a knee injury and his availability this week is in doubt leaving Flacco with very limited weapons in the passing game. Steve Smith has given the Ravens an effort beyond expectations in his age 35 season and will be heavily counted on this week as the Ravens fight to stay on top of the highly competitive AFC North. Second year wide receiver Marlon Brown has had a quiet second year after producing well as a rookie and should see significant snaps this week replacing Smith. Veteran tight end Owen Daniels hasn’t contributed much in recent weeks, but is another candidate to see an expanded role with Torrey Smith out of the line-up.

The Jaguars’ pass defense has not been strong this season, so perhaps the Ravens should be able to survive just fine without Smith. The Jags are allowing 244.4 yards per game and have yielded 20 passing touchdowns with only 5 interceptions.

Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett has more than effectively replaced Ray Rice’s production in the running game after grabbing the job and keeping it when backup Bernard Pierce missed time early in the season. The veteran running back who turned 29 this season, is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has shown that he can handle a feature back workload averaging 14.7 carries per game and adding 37 receptions. Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro spelled Forsett more than usual last week as the veteran was nursing a knee injury leading up to the game. Neither back has been much of a threat to Forsett, however. While he does lose some goal-line looks to the bigger backs he still has 8 rushing touchdowns on the season.

The Jaguars are the league’s 28th ranked run defense allowing 132.8 yards per game on the ground. The Ravens like to run a balanced attack, so the Jaguars run defense will need to be up to the task.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yd
Lorenzo Taliaferro: 35 rush yds, 1 TD 5 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 75 rush yds, 30 rec yards
Marlon Brown: 55 rec yds
Steve Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Ravens 27, Jaguars 13 ^ Top

Vikings at Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater had the best statistical game of his career in Week 14, completing 19-of-27 passes for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns. His only blemish was an interception that came on a Hail Mary pass as time ran out in first half. Eighty-Seven of those yards, however, came on a short screen pass to wide receiver Jarius Wright who broke a tackle and ran the ball in for the winning touchdown in Overtime. Bridgewater also hooked up with his new favorite target Charles Johnson for a 56-yard score and could have added another touchdown if Johnson didn’t fumble the ball into the end-zone on another long pass play. Bridgewater is starting to take more chances downfield something that was lacking from his game during his early starts. Last week was his third straight game with at least 2 touchdown passes, and he is starting to look very comfortable in Norv Turner’s offense.

The Lions are allowing only 232.8 passing yards per game and have managed to pick off almost as many balls as they have allowed touchdown passes (18:17). The Lions can create pressure up the middle, and the Vikings offensive line has given up the sixth most sacks in the league with 40. This Lions defense has surprisingly been carrying the team most of the season and will need to come through again in a division matchup with the division title still within reach.
Running Game Thoughts: Jerick McKinnon was placed on the IR this week leaving the running game to Matt Asiata, Ben Tate and Joe Banyard. With Tate having now been with the team for three weeks and more acclimated with the offense his role should increase with Asiata proving to be nothing more than a decent stopgap option. Asiata is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground, and while he does a fine job in pass protection and has shown steady hands, he’s not a tremendous asset in the running game or after the catch either. Former practice squad player Banyard has shown some flashes, but the team should want to see what Tate offers after picking him up on waivers and with Adrian Peterson’s future with the team uncertain.

Whichever back sees the bulk of carries will face a tough time with the Lions top ranked run defense. The team is allowing only 3 yards per carry and 62 yards per game with 6 touchdowns on the season. The uninspiring options that the Vikings have at their disposal should not be able to gain much traction against this ferocious unit.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 15 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Ben Tate: 35 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Charles Johnson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 45 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford and the Lions’ passing game has been revitalized with Calvin Johnson now seemingly fully recovered from a mid-season ankle injury. It has certainly helped that the Lions have squared off against two of the league’s bottom ranked pass defenses in Chicago and Tampa Bay the last two weeks. Stafford has put up 701 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two games with Calvin Johnson being on the receiving end of 304 of those yards and three of the touchdowns. Golden Tate who stepped up when Calvin was out, has now taken a back seat to Megatron, but has still been a solid contributor and has 84 receptions for 1,186 yards on the season. If rookie tight end Eric Ebron is able to take another step in his development next season this passing game could be unstoppable, but for now outside of Johnson and Tate their isn’t much to get excited about.

The Vikings have had a strong pass defense this season allowing only 220.8 passing yards per game but have yielded 21 touchdown passes. They have done a good job of shutting down opposing team’s top weapons, most noticeably Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb just a few weeks back, but Johnson creates mismatches, even when double teamed that no other wide receiver in the league can.

Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush was back last week, but it was the recently red hot Joique Bell that saw the heavy workload in that game. Bell rushed 18 times for 83 yards and a score while also adding 5 receptions for 50 yards. Bush rushed only 8 times for 26 yards and only added 8 yards in the receiving game. Bush may carve into Bell’s role as he gets back into game shape, but right now it looks like Bell is clearly the preferred option and he’s regained his 2013 form of being a hard charging tackle breaking runner. With a strong defense, the Lions really should be looking to establish a balanced offense, and Bell is finally giving them the option to do so.

The Vikings are the league’s 23rd ranked run defense allowing 127.2 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing touchdowns, so the Lions should be able to move the ball on the ground. With the Vikings likely to struggle moving the ball against their top ranked defense, the Lions could be content to attack the weak part of the Vikings’ defense by keeping the ball on the ground more than usual.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Joique Bell: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 105 rec yds, 2 TDs
Golden Tate: 70 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 20 ^ Top

Saints at Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees and the Saints came up small in an important home game against the Panthers where they could have taken sole possession of first place in the pathetic NFC South. He completed only 29-of-49 passes for 235 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Tight end Jimmy Graham disappointed for the second consecutive week catching only 3 passes for 25 yards after not even being targeted the week before. The Saints’ passing game is still capable of putting up big numbers but Brees has turned the ball over far too often and the team has failed to make the plays necessary to win games.

Luckily the Saints have the good fortune of facing a Bears’ team this week which has not stopped anyone all season long. The Bears are allowing 265.5 yards per game and have yielded an incredible 30 touchdowns through the air. Look for the Saints’ passing game to find its way back this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints fell behind early last week and struggled to sustain drives against the Panthers and thus the running game never really was able to get going. Mark Ingram gained 43 yards on his 10 carries, but lost a fumble early in the game which helped set the tone for a blowout loss. Ingram has run the ball effectively this season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and has provided a power running game for a team that has been lacking one for a number of years. Khiry Robinson returned this week but didn’t see many snaps and probably won’t so long as Ingram remains effective. Veteran Pierre Thomas is a “jack of all trades” type runner whose versatility is an important element to this offense, and his role should remain stable as a third down back and spell back for Ingram. The Saints have some talented runners and could be the type of offense that could really wear down a defense, but Sean Peyton has always felt more at home calling passing plays, which leaves only table scraps for the Saint runners.

The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 112.3 yards per game and only 9 rushing touchdowns on the season. Those statistics are partially a result of the passing defense being such an easy target for opposing offenses. On a potentially cold and windy Monday Night in Chicago, the Saints could focus a larger portion of their play calls on the running game than they normally would, but Sean Peyton will likely not be able to resist the urge to get his passing game back in shape.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 35 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Marques Colston: 45 rec yds
Kenny Stills: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jimmy Graham: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler now has 15 interceptions on the season while also losing 6 fumbles. The Bears have to be regretting paying him like a franchise quarterback as he hasn’t done much to take the franchise in the right direction. This season in particular a disproportionate amount of his production has come in garbage time as he attempts to drag his team back from a large deficit that at times he has been largely responsible for putting them in. Brandon Marshall who was in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year has now been placed on the IR after suffering broken ribs and a collapsed lung during last week’s Thursday Night game. Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Martellus Bennett will be asked to pick up the slack and carry the passing game these last three weeks while second year player Marquess Wilson gets an opportunity to step in as the starting wideout opposite Jeffrey. The 6’4” Wilson has tremendous deep speed and could provide a jump start to the offense if Cutler decides to take advantage of him by throwing deep more often.

The Saints arrival at Soldier Field should help the passing game get back on track, as they have really struggled in pass defense all season. The Saints are allowing 265.2 passing yards per game and 22 touchdown passes with only 8 interceptions. Rob Ryan somehow had this unit playing good football last season, but that is all a distant memory now.

Running Game Thoughts: Happy Birthday, Matt Forte! The running back turned 29 this week, but his inevitable decline that comes with age may have already started. Forte has struggled the last couple of weeks and is only averaging 4 yards per carry on the season. He is still a big part of the passing game, however, with 86 receptions for 724 yards. Rookie Ka’Deem Carey has not been used much this season, as the Bears just don’t run the ball often enough to need a spell back, but perhaps he should start to get some looks in what has quickly become a lost season for the team. Carey is a grinder type back that isn’t particularly big or fast, but has good vision and leg churn and could keep the chains moving if called upon. The Bears have finally invested in their offensive line in recent years, and it has become one of the league’s better units, but until the team takes its running game more seriously it will go to waste, as their quarterback puts them in bad spots with his sloppy play.

The Saints are coming off consecutive games where veteran journeyman Justin Forsett and forgotten veteran Jonathan Stewart have scorched them for 189 and 155 yards on the ground, respectively. Perhaps running Forte and Carey at the heart of the defense is a strategy that would pay big dividends but don’t hold your breath waiting for Marc Trestman to try and establish a running game.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Ka’Deem Carey: 25 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 65 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Bears 34, Saints 31 ^ Top