Bears at Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler played mostly mistake-free football last week, although he did lose a fumble. Cutler wasn’t asked to do much, as his former backup Josh McCown turned the ball over three times in the third quarter, allowing the Bears to score on short fields and take control of the game. He finished the game with only 130 yards and a touchdown. It was a quiet day for the passing game overall and that may continue over to Turkey Day as the Bears face the league’s top defense that’s coming off a humiliating loss and playing at home. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey are amongst the league’s top outside duos, however, and should match up well against the weakest link in the Lions defense: their secondary. Tight end Martellus Bennett has been suffering through a rib injury, which has severely limited his production in recent weeks. While he did manage an outstanding grab on a ball thrown too high by Cutler, he was once again quiet otherwise. Cutler will likely face duress against a fierce Lions’ front seven and won’t be able to rely on Bennett for his check-down options, making Matt Forte the most productive passing game option this week for the Bears.

The Lions are allowing only 233.1 passing yards per game and have managed to pick off almost as many balls as they have allowed touchdown passes (14:13). The Lions can create pressure up the middle which could put Cutler into some difficult situations and by now we all know how he responds to difficult situations.

Running Game Thoughts: In a game where the Bears didn’t need to generate many passing yards, the team rode Forte. He gained 89 yards on his 23 carries and scored twice. As usual he was also a big part of the passing game adding five receptions for 23 yards. The Bears may have finally figured out that they would be well served to balance out their offense a little, since Forte is one of the league’s better running backs and using him can help protect their inadequate defense as well as Cutler’s brittle psyche. The Bears have put together a good offensive line and should be watching what the Cowboys are doing this season. When your defense is bad and your quarterback sometimes tries to do too much on his own, run the ball and then run it some more.

Admittedly that will be a difficult task this week against the league’s top run defense. Despite allowing LeGarrette Bount and the Patriots to find success running the ball last week in Foxboro, the team is only allowing 70.7 yards per game on the ground and six rushing touchdowns on the season. The loss of Stephen Tulloch could have been a difficult blow to this defense but third-year player Tahir Whitehead, who had been mostly limited to special teams play during his first two seasons, has stepped in nicely.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 65 rush yds, 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Ka’Deem Carey: 15 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 25 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 80 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford’s game has been in freefall as the former top draft pick has not thrown a touchdown pass in the last two weeks and he only has 13 on the season against 10 interceptions. Calvin Johnson’s mid-season ankle injury relegated him to a mere decoy for a week and then forced him out of action, but since he’s been back and “healthy” the passing game has surprisingly been worse. Better days should be ahead as the team will be facing some soft pass defenses to finish out the season including the Bears on Thanksgiving Day. If Stafford doesn’t cut down on his mistakes and find his accuracy it may not matter, however. The Lions need a healthy and productive Johnson to make this offense work. Golden Tate has stepped up and has been a solid contributor with 72 receptions for 1,047 yards, but rookie tight end Eric Ebron has been a major disappointment, and the rest of the Lions receiving crew is far below average.

Stafford gets a plush assignment this week facing the Bears in front of the Ford Field faithful. The Bear are allowing 260.5 yards per game and have yielded an incredible 25 touchdowns through the air. Their secondary has consistently blown assignments, allowing big plays, and should be susceptible to the size and speed of the Detroit receivers this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush sat out in New England, but should be back for Thursday’s matchup. The Lions have not run the ball well this season, averaging only 80 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Joique Bell who was a pleasant surprise last season hasn’t showed any burst this season and has not found much running room. He’s averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and unlike last season he isn’t getting many targets in the passing game. Theo Riddick has been decent in relief of Bush, but shows diminishing returns the more usage he sees. Bush isn’t likely to be a savior for the running game, but perhaps the time off while resting his ankle and keeping his legs fresh will help against a tired Bears run defense playing on a short week.

The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 106.8 yards per game and only five rushing touchdowns on the season, but they can be susceptible to running backs receiving passes out of the backfield. This could be yet another factor which makes Reggie Bush a potential sneaky fantasy start on Thanksgiving Day.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 45 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Joique Bell: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 75 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 17 ^ Top

Eagles at Cowboys - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: In winning three of their last four games, all of which featured QB Mark Sanchez as the primary signal caller, the Philadelphia Eagles have maintained a pace necessary to stay atop the NFC East heading into their divisional matchup on Thanksgiving afternoon. As a starter Sanchez has thrown for 300 yards in three consecutive games, tying a franchise record. He also has five touchdowns and four interceptions during that span, while completing 60 percent or more of his passes in just one of his three starts.

Though WR Jeremy Maclin continues to lead the team in all major receiving categories, rookie WR Jordan Matthews has demonstrated excellent rapport with Sanchez and has actually outperformed Maclin in all four games when the veteran quarterback played. Despite not scoring in Week 12, Matthews still has four touchdown receptions in the past four games and more yardage than Maclin, despite having three fewer targets and receptions. Both are averaging 87 or more yards through the last four games and also found the end zone at least three times. From a fantasy perspective, both have performed at worthy levels.

With four of the Eagles next five games against division opponents, including two against the team tied with them in the standings, winning the game on Thursday is not critical, but doing so would make them the team to beat in the East and would keep them in the running for the No. 1 overall seed on the NFC side of the playoffs.

Though the Cowboys trailed for 38 minutes last week and gave up nearly as many minutes of possession, their secondary came up with a big play when they needed it the most. With the exclusion of the interception in the latter stages of the third quarter, Dallas was exposed in Week 12 by a wildly inconsistent passing attack and was on the wrong end of a magnificent performance from a rookie receiver. In all they surrendered 338 passing yards and yielded three touchdowns through the air. The defense forced only two sacks and allowed the opposing quarterback to complete nearly 73 percent of his passes. Aside from the outstanding rookie and a running back, no pass catcher recorded more than three interceptions or gained yards. To an extent, the Dallas secondary was able to limit the damage they took to one consistent mismatch, rather than giving up plays to a variety of different players.

At halftime the defense adjusted coverage to minimize the impact of the top receiver and from that point on, the passing attack was thrown off, allowing the Dallas offense an opportunity to work its way back into the game. Though the Cowboys are approximately average, or slightly less than that, in most areas of their pass defense, their primary goal is to keep the opponent in check and try to come up with timely turnovers. To the largest extent this season Dallas has been successful in doing so.

Running Game Thoughts: Now that RB LeSean McCoy has topped 115 rushing yards in three of the last six games it’s safe to say his early-season issues, as well as the struggles of the offensive line, should be firmly behind them. In the 11 games played by Philadelphia this season, McCoy has received more than 19 total touches in eight of them. He has surpassed 85 yards from scrimmage on each occasion and has broken 115 in four of those eight contests. The only aspect missing from his performances has been end zone appearances, but with two scores in the last three games, that trend may be turning around as well.

Although RB Darren Sproles has been more active as a receiver, scoring five times on the ground compared to just thrice for McCoy, he has been further relegated to backup duties and is now almost entirely touchdown dependent as a fantasy running back. Interestingly, Sproles has scored a rushing touchdown in each game that McCoy has scored, so his greatest fantasy value has primarily been to the managers playing against owners of McCoy, seemingly as an insurance policy against monster games from the star.

Look for McCoy and Sproles to once again threaten the end zone on Thanksgiving against a Dallas team that has allowed ten scores from 11 contests and is in the bottom of the league with that regard. The Cowboys have recovered just one fumble this season, more than just four other teams. They’ve forced the fewest fumbles in the league, regardless of who covered up the ball once it hit the turf. Among the teams who rank in the top half of the NFL for yards allowed per game, Dallas has conceded at least two more touchdowns that all of the others, suggesting that they’re disciplined when the offense is behind the chains. In short-yardage situations and in the red zone, they are far less impressive, though. With a high-powered offense and the ability to control the pace of the game, the Cowboys tend to face fewer rushing attempts than most other teams. On six occasions this season Dallas has either won by less than a touchdown of has lost the game, and in those six contests they are allowing an average of 123 rushing yards; in the five victories of a touchdown or more they’ve conceded just 88 yards per game. If the Eagles are going to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East, they will likely have to come on the heels of a strong rushing performance on Thursday afternoon.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 305 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 95 rush yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 75 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: In what was possibly the most boring four-touchdown performance in recent memory, QB Tony Romo was nearly flawless on Sunday night. He perfectly executed a two-minute drive to retake the lead in the final part of the fourth quarter. Behind an incredible offensive line, the Dallas quarterback threw three relatively short passes to open receivers that resulted in touchdowns. The first score was a shovel pass to TE Jason Witten from four yards out; the second found WR Cole Beasley on a crossing pattern and the receiver did most of the work to earn the 45-yard score; and the third score of the game came when Romo found WR Dez Bryant wide open in the redz one and the receiver then powered through a defender at the goal line. The offensive line and the pass catchers, perhaps even more than Romo, deserve credit for all three of those scores. Though the final minutes saw a masterful drive put together by the offense, much of the primetime contest felt like just another day at work for Romo, finding his receivers in good positions to make a play for the team. In reality the 275-yard performance was his fourth highest total of the year and this was the first time since late 2012 where Romo threw four touchdowns without an interception. Any perceived lack of excitement from the offense is due to the O-line providing excellent protection for nearly the entire game.

After other phases of the offense have gotten most of the attention this season, Week 12 should serve as a reminder that the Cowboys passing attack features talented and experienced position players, a stellar pass protection, and one of the single most physically dominant receivers in the game. Though he endured two disappointing games in a row despite scoring a touchdown in each, Bryant has followed that up with consecutive games of over 85 receiving yards and two scores in each of those contests. He’s now second overall is touchdowns and in the top 10 for receiving yards, while facing limited offensive plays against the rushing attack as well as greater defensive coverage in pass plays. He can be stopped, or at least held in check, but with Philadelphia touting the third worst pass defense in the league it’s hard to imagine that happening on Thanksgiving. In the areas of touchdowns allowed and yards given up per pass attempt, the Eagles are clearly inside the bottom 10, and in the remaining defensive areas their numbers are largely inflated by victimizing bad teams. The most dangerous aspect of the Eagles defense is actually what happens after they get the ball in their hands. Either from a turnover or a kickoff following a score, the Eagles lead the league with 10 non-offensive touchdowns. So while their defense may give up yards and points, their big play abilities make them a viable fantasy defense most weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: Over the last four games RB DeMarco Murray has not scored a touchdown. Although the trend is disappointing for fantasy owners, it is not a cause for concern quite yet. In the first two contests of this quartet Dallas lost, so Murray not finding the end zone potentially highlights his importance to the offense. The following game was never truly in question and Murray conceded carries to other teammates, presumably to preserve his health. This leaves only one significant game, where Dallas utilized Murray and emerged victorious. Although he didn’t score, he was the only Cowboys ball carrier to attempt a rush and he topped 120 yards on the ground and added another 22 through the air. It’s irresponsible to draw conclusions from one game, especially because game plans can differ as opponents change, but if he is held out of the end zone for another contest it may begin to demonstrate that defenses are keying on him and that Dallas will be better served throwing for scores rather than running. Prior to this four-game slump Murray earned seven touchdowns in seven contests, only failing to score in one game but finding the end zone twice on the following weekend. Regardless, Murray runs behind the most proficient run blocking offensive line in the league, leads the league by a significant margin in yardage, and is still third in touchdowns. He is by far the number one fantasy running back and will continue to be so as long as he’s Dallas desires to utilize its running game.

This season Dallas has faced four of the top nine rushing defenses in the league, and only the third best was able to hold Murray to under 100 total yards. Against the remainder he gained at least 115 rushing yards and another 25 or more through the air. He averaged 170 total yards from scrimmage in those three contests and scored two touchdowns as well. At 109 per game, Philadelphia is less than one half yard above the midpoint for the league, though its mark of 3.9 yards per carry lands them inside the top 10. The Eagles’ greatest strength is keeping ball carriers out of the end zone, and with only six rushing touchdowns allowed this season they’re tied for seventh best in the league. In the three games where Sanchez started, the Eagles have given up no more than 110 rushing yards to an opponent while averaging just 3.5 yards against per carry. No single ball carrier has gained 70 yards or more on the ground. It is important to note that none of those three opponents rank in the top half of the league for rushing yards per game, and two of those teams slightly exceeded those averages against the Eagles, so against the second best rushing attack in the league the outcome could be dramatically different. Look for Murray to be used early and often, to easily top 100 total yards yet again, and to finally snap out of his scoring drought by powering his way to pay dirt from inside the red zone.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 250 pass yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 115 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Lance Dunbar: 10 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 35 rec yds
Jason Witten: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Eagles 30 ^ Top

Seahawks @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s extremely rare that a quarterback who is on pace to have as few passing yards (3,244) and passing touchdowns (20) is firmly sitting in the top five fantasy scorers at the position, but that’s where Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson currently ranks. The loss of wide receiver Percy Harvin has certainly not been great for Wilson’s passing numbers, but he has more than made up for it with his ability to make plays with his legs. The Seattle QB is now on pace to rush for 937 yards this season -- a total which would be second-most in the history of the league among quarterbacks. Wilson’s rushing numbers have been getting even better as of late as he has rushed for over 250 yards in his past three games alone. While this success has made Wilson a must-start for most fantasy teams, the unfortunate thing is that his lack of passing success has made his receivers almost completely insignificant from a fantasy standpoint. In Week 12, Wilson’s top three receivers, Doug Baldwin, Ricardo Lockette and Jermaine Kearse, finished with a combined four catches. Only Baldwin had any consistency prior to that game, but even he wasn’t producing enough to be a viable weekly fantasy option.

Things won’t get any easier this week, either, as the team heads to San Francisco to face their rivals, the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in the league as they have conceded an average of just 217 passing yards per game. They’ve also intercepted a league-most 16 passes while only conceding 18 passing touchdowns. The interception number does seem a bit daunting on the surface, but it’s worth considering that Wilson has been excellent at limiting turnovers throughout his career and particularly in 2014 where he has only thrown five picks. Wilson hasn’t had great success against this defense throughout his career, however. In 2013, he threw for just 341 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions against them in their two regular season contests. He did do a bit better in the playoff game as he threw for 215 yards and a touchdown without an interception, but he did fumble twice. Given his recent dominance on the ground, Wilson is practically a must-start for the foreseeable future.

Running Game Thoughts: After a fairly slow start to the season and rumors of his possible departure from Seattle, running back Marshawn Lynch exploded with huge numbers in Weeks 9 through 11. During that span, Lynch rushed for 331 yards with six touchdowns while adding 100 yards as a receiver. But in Week 12, Lynch fell back down with one of his least productive rushing days in recent memory. “Beast Mode” ran for just 39 yards on 15 carries - a dreadful 2.6 yards per carry average. He did at 43 yards in the receiving game, but it wasn’t enough to save what was an otherwise ugly performance.

The unfortunate thing for Lynch owners is that he doesn’t have a much easier schedule down the stretch, especially in his Week 13 matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco ranks 5th in fewest fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs and they have only allowed one rushing touchdown over their past four games combined. The one positive is that Lynch has actually been able to run fairly successfully against this elite defense over the past few seasons. In fact, in 2013, Lynch rushed for a total of 170 yards and scored four total touchdowns in the two regular season games these teams played. He also ran for an additional 109 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship game.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 165 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 60 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The 2014 season has not been the breakout year for Colin Kaepernick that many had predicted heading into the season. While his 15-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio is decent enough, the fact that he has only thrown for an average of 238 yards per game is not very inspiring from a fantasy standpoint. This has, of course, translated into mediocre numbers for the 49ers receivers as well. Michael Crabtree has just four games where he has gone into double-digit fantasy totals in standard scoring formats while Vernon Davis has practically drop-worthy given his complete lack of production since a huge Week 1 against the Cowboys. Only Anquan Boldin, whose 65 receptions for 825 yards and four touchdowns are all team highs, has given fantasy owners anything to be excited about. Perhaps worse yet is that Kaepernick seems to be regressing as a runner. Kaepernick has only cracked 60 yards on the ground once this season and it happened all the way back in Week 2. In fact, since Week 5, he has only rushed for more than 25 yards on one occasion when he got to a measly 37 yards against the Rams in Week 6. He also has not rushed for a touchdown yet this season.

In Week 13, he’ll be up against a Seattle defense that struggled early in the season but has since returned to their 2013 form in recent weeks and now rank second in fewest fewest fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Seattle has only allowed one passing touchdown over their past three games combined and they were excellent against Kaepernick in the three games these teams played a season ago. In those meetings, Kaepernick averaged just 152 yards passing while throwing for just two touchdowns with a whopping six interceptions. While he did rush for some excellent totals in those games, it’s hard to predict that he’s going to do that again in this game, considering his lack of success on the ground as of late. This is about as bad of a matchup as Kaepernick fans can imagine and fantasy owners would be wise to steer clear of this game other than perhaps sneaking in Boldin as a FLEX.

Running Game Thoughts: Week 12’s matchup against the Redskins should have been a prime opportunity for Frank Gore to finally have another nice game, but Washington’s defense stood strong and held the veteran tailback to just 36 yards rushing on 13 carries. Gore has now failed to eclipse 10 fantasy points (standard scoring) in five of his past six contests and he remains almost completely irrelevant in the 49ers’ passing game. Given his lack of rushing totals, Gore is about as much of a touchdown-or-nothing back as there is in the NFL right now and he really isn’t a great bet to get into the end zone here in Week 13. These teams played three times in 2013 and Gore did not score a single touchdown in those contests. Not only that, but his rushing totals were abysmal. He did have a nice game in Week 14 of 2013 when he ran for 110 yards on 17 carries, but he totaled just 30 yards on 20 carries in the other two games combined. With no other back stepping up to take a significant role in this offense, Gore remains the only San Francisco that fantasy should even consider deploying here in Week 13, but this is a truly awful matchup.

The Seahawks have held opposing teams to fewer than 50 yards rushing in five of their 11 games this season and just got done holding Andre Ellington to 24 yards on 10 carries in Week 12. Gore is a flex option at best, but his upside is practically nonexistent in this matchup.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Frank Gore: 50 rush yds
Anquan Boldin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 20, 49ers 16 ^ Top

Redskins at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Robert Griffin III is no more. Okay, that might be overstating things just a bit, but he won’t be playing this week. The former second overall pick has been benched in favor of Colt McCoy, so maybe some time on the sidelines will help ease the friction between RG3 and his head coach. In the meantime, McCoy has been solid in limited work this season, though deploying him in fantasy lineups may not be the wisest idea. He does have a solid set of weapons to throw to, but the only real fantasy option right now is DeSean Jackson, who doesn’t catch a ton of passes but does a lot with the ones he does snare. He’ll try to break a string of two games with fewer than 40 yards this week against Indianapolis.

The Colts are ranked 20th in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 15th in passing scores surrendered. They are 16th in the 32-team NFL in FPTs/G allowed to quarterbacks, but are vastly different when it comes to covering pass-catchers. Indy has allowed the 7th-fewest FPTs/G to wide receivers, but only three squads have given up more FPTs/G to tight ends, with the team giving up four touchdowns in their last four games to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris had his first 100-yard game of the season last week against the 49ers, with 125 yards and a score on 21 carries. Morris is rolling at the moment, with four touchdowns in his last four games, and he’s set a season-high mark in rushing yards in each of his last three contests. It seems unlikely he’ll pick up over 125 yards this week against the Colts, but a trip or two to the end zone is very realistic.

Indianapolis is 17th in the league in run defense but just four teams have given up more rushing scores than they have. The team’s rush defense rebounded last week against Jacksonville after being throttled by New England’s Jonas Gray in Week 11, but the Colts are still allowing the most receiving yards in the league by backs and are tied for 5th-most FPTs/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Colt McCoy: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 105 rush yds, 2 TD
DeSean Jackson: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 60 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck had 253 yards and a single touchdown throw last week against the Jaguars, marking just the second time this season he failed to throw multiple scores. Luck’s mediocre output allowed Peyton Manning to take over the lead in fantasy scoring, but it should come as no surprise if Luck reclaims the lead this week against the Redskins. He may not have tight end Dwayne Allen this week, but Coby Fleener is capable of producing, and T.Y. Hilton should be considered a WR1 in this match-up.

Washington may be 8th in the league in pass defense but they are tied for 27th in scoring throws permitted. They have allowed at least one touchdown pass in each game this season, have a measly four interceptions, and as such have surrendered the 7th-most FPTs/G to quarterbacks. Washington is 15th in FPTs/G allowed to tight ends, but has given up the 11th-most FPTs/G to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Without Ahmad Bradshaw, the Colts are stuck with Trent Richardson as their lead back, though Dan Herron did make something of a statement last week against Jacksonville. Richardson had 42 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, but Herron led the way with 65 yards on 13 carries and also caught five passes. Still, there should be caution used by fantasy owners this week with either back due to the quality of rush defense that Washington possesses.

The Redskins have the league’s 9th-ranked run defense and is tied for 13th in rushing scores allowed. Only one running back has managed to gain over 75 yards against them this season, and just two backs have even broken 70 yards. Washington has also limited backs to the third-fewest receiving yards in the league, and is allowing the 5th-fewest FPTs/G in the NFL to running backs.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 290 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Trent Richardson: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Dan Herron: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Reggie Wayne: 60 rec yds
Hakeem Nicks: 25 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Allen: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Colts 31, Redskins 24 ^ Top

Titans at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie Zach Mettenberger had the most productive outing of his brief career last week, throwing for 345 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Eagles. He found the most success throwing to tight end Delanie Walker, who had 155 yards. Walker is the team’s only real fantasy option, because even though Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Nate Washington are all solid players, they put up similar numbers, which aren’t enough to be anything more than a WR3 on most weeks. However, it might be tempting to consider Wright as a lower-end play this week against a Texans team that cannot stop opposing wideouts.

Houston currently has the league’s 2nd-worst pass defense and is tied for 24th in passing touchdowns allowed. They are tied for 8th-fewest FPTs/G given up to tight ends, but have allowed the 11th-most FPTs/G to quarterbacks and the 2nd-most FPTs/G to wide receivers. The Texans have permitted five wideouts to amass 100+ yards this season, and over their last three games have seen four different receivers collect 90 or more yards.

Running Game Thoughts: The Titans employ Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene as the team’s running backs, and if fantasy owners out there weren’t aware of that, it’s understandable. Neither player has done a thing to establish himself as anything resembling a fantasy option, and both should be duly ignored this and every other week.

The Texans are 18th in the NFL in run defense but tied for 7th-fewest rushing scores surrendered. The fact they’ve held backs out of the end zone means they’re right in the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to players at the position, but it should be noted that five backs have gained 85 or more rushing yards against them this season, including two in the last three games.

Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 265 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Bishop Sankey: 40 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin Hunter: 60 rec yds
Nate Washington: 45 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Mallett suffered a torn pectoral muscle last week, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will return as the starter in Houston. He was not a great fantasy option before his benching and obviously nothing has changed. Fitzpatrick may direct most of his passes to Andre Johnson, but the majority of the team’s passing game production will probably come from DeAndre Hopkins. The young wideout is the team’s only real fantasy option this week in a tough match-up with Tennessee.

The Titans are 11th in the league in pass defense and tied for 8th-fewest passing scores given up. They have not allowed multiple touchdown throws in a game since Week 5, are surrendering the 5th-fewest FPTs/G in the league to quarterbacks and 9th-fewest FPTs/G to wide receivers. The only struggles Tennessee has had have come against tight ends, as they’re allowing the 10th-most FPTs/G to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: As of this writing, it was unknown if Arian Foster would be able to suit up this week against the Titans. If he does, he may be the top-ranked runner for the week. Foster has traditionally destroyed Tennessee, and the Titans are in position to allow him to continue doing so this week.

Tennessee has the NFL’s worst run defense, having allowed over 145 yards per game on the ground this season while ranking in a tie for 29th in rushing scores given up. No team in the league has allowed fewer receiving yards to backs, but they don’t have to catch it when they can just run freely. The Titans have been particularly bad against runners in recent games, having allowed 110+ yards to a single back in each of their last four contests.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Arian Foster: 125 rush yds, 2 TD, 15 rec yds
Alfred Blue: 35 rush yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 45 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 20 ^ Top

Giants at Jaguars - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning threw for 338 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in the Giants’ come-from-ahead loss to the Cowboys last week. His inconsistency has likely masked a fairly productive season in which he’s capable of starting for fantasy squads depending on the match-up. The best part about Manning may be that he gets to throw to Odell Beckham Jr. The rookie has lit things up the past month, with 93 or more yards in each of his last four games and the author of a truly spectacular catch (which we’re all now starting to resent due to the endless replays) who deserves a spot in fantasy lineups this week against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are 27th in the league in pass defense and tied for 20th in passing touchdowns surrendered. The team has only five interceptions all season and is allowing the 12th-most FPTs/G in the league to quarterbacks, the 13th-most FPTs/G to TEs, and the 9th-most FPTs/G to WRs. Jacksonville has had particular troubles in recent weeks, having allowed three wideouts to gain 95 or more yards in their last three games.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashad Jennings hasn’t lit things up on the ground since his return from injury, but he gets plenty of carries and is a receiving threat (eight catches for 68 yards last week) that needs to be respected. Andre Williams is only averaging 3.0 yards per carry for the season, but he did score last week and has five touchdowns for the season, so even though Jennings will get most of the looks, Williams should be considered a flex play based on match-ups like the one this week with the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is 28th in the NFL against the run and tied for 19th in rushing scores allowed. They’ve only allowed a pair of backs to reach 100 yards against them this season, but that’s happened over the course of their last three games, and the team has surrendered the 11th-most FPTs/G in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 70 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Andre Williams: 30 rush yds, 1 TD
Odell Beckham Jr.: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: There was very little action last week for the Jacksonville pass game, with Blake Bortles throwing for 146 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. Only one wide receiver or tight end managed to break 20 receiving yards, and that was formerly invisible rookie Marqise Lee with 52 yards on three receptions. Frankly, there really is nothing to see here outside of an occasional decent game from Cecil Shorts or Allen Hurns. Even with a good match-up against a team like the Giants, fantasy owners shouldn’t be counting on any Jaguars pass thrower or catcher.

New York has similar numbers to their opponent this week when it comes to pass defense, with the Giants ranking 24th in the league against the pass and tied for 20th in passing scores permitted. They’ve actually been solid against wide receivers, having allowed the 11th-fewest FPTs/G to players at that position, but are allowing the 4th-most FPTs/G to quarterbacks and the 5th-most FPTs/G to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Denard Robinson was shut down last week by the Colts, amassing just 25 yards on 14 carries, though he did salvage something for his fantasy owners by gaining 47 yards on four receptions. Despite his poor outing, Robinson should be starting for his fantasy owners this week, who should expect a big-time rebound against one of the league’s worst run defenses.

The Giants own the league’s 2nd-worst run defense and are tied for 2nd-most rushing touchdowns allowed this season. They have also given up the 2nd-most receiving yards in the NFL to running backs, and as one might expect, that has led to oodles of fantasy points for opposing backs. New York has surrendered the 2nd-most FPTs/G in the league to backs, and has allowed four runners to gain 120 or more yards over their last six contests.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Denard Robinson: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 55 rec yds
Allen Hurns: 40 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Clay Harbor: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Giants 21, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Bengals at Buccaneers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton had a very Dalton-like game last week against Houston, throwing for 233 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Any hope of him being a fantasy factor this year has faded, and all attention should be placed on A.J. Green. He’s had two straight games with 120+ receiving yards, and is creeping up fantasy scoreboards after missing time with an injury. He should be a WR1 this week, with Mohamed Sanu in consideration as a WR3 against the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay is 22nd in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 27th in passing touchdowns surrendered. They have played better recently though, having allowed no more than a single touchdown throw in each of their last three contests while holding each quarterback they’ve faced to fewer than 220 passing yards. The Bucs are in the middle of the pack for the year in terms of FPTs/G allowed to both quarterbacks and tight ends, but they have surrendered the 7th-most FPTs/G to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Giovani Bernard returned from last week and had 17 carries for 45 yards, while teammate Jeremy Hill ran the rock 18 times for 87 yards and a touchdown. This is the type of timeshare that seems likely from here on out, with Bernard the bigger threat as a receiver and Hill the bigger threat as a runner. There should be a place for each back in fantasy lineups this week against Tampa.

The Buccaneers are tied for 19th in run defense and in a tie for 23rd in rushing scores allowed so far this season. They aren’t allowing huge games to running backs, but do give up chunks of yards, with a running back gaining 80+ yards against them in six of their last seven contests. Tampa has also permitted backs to score four times via reception and for the year is tied for 7th-most FPTs/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jeremy Hill: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 45 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
A.J. Green: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 55 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie Mike Evans finally cooled off a bit last week – sort of. He had just 47 receiving yards, breaking a string of three straight games with at least 120 yards, but did catch a touchdown for the fourth straight game, and his eighth of the season. Those touchdowns have placed him in the top-10 in fantasy scoring among wideouts, and ahead of Vincent Jackson as the team’s most fantasy-worthy player. Jackson did have over 100 receiving yards last week, but has only two scores all season and is too inconsistent to be a regular in fantasy lineups, and that holds especially true this week against Cincinnati.

The Bengals are 18th in the league in pass defense but no team has allowed fewer scores through the air. They have as many interceptions as they do touchdown throws surrendered, have not given up a passing score in two of their last three games, and are permitting the 8th-fewest FPTs/G to quarterbacks and the 2nd-fewest FPTs/G to wide receivers. They only occasional struggles for Cincinnati have come against tight ends, as the team is giving up the 11th-most FPTs/G to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Bucs had a running game, this would be a game in which fantasy owners might be able to exploit the match-up. But there is no run attack in Tampa, not with an ineffective Doug Martin and whoever his back-up is – Bobby Rainey or Charles Sims.

Cincinnati may be able to lock down the opposition’s passing game but the same can’t be said as far as their run defense is concerned. They are 27th in the NFL against the run and tied for 26th in rushing scores given up. The Bengals may have allowed only one back to gain 100 yards against them this year, but they’ve also surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards and FPTs/G to backs.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Doug Martin: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Bobby Rainey: 15 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Mike Evans: 60 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis Murphy: 30 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 16 ^ Top

Cardinals at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: There was little semblance of a passing game last week for Arizona in their loss to Seattle. Drew Stanton had 149 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, and it certainly didn’t help that he was playing without Larry Fitzgerald. The status of Fitzgerald for this week was unknown as of this writing, but if he does play, consider him a solid option, along with John Brown, who has 60 or more yards in four of his last five games, along with two touchdowns.

The Falcons have a contrasting pass defense due to the fact that despite no team in the NFL having allowed more yards per game through the air, just one team has given up fewer passing scores. Atlanta is 14th in FPTs/G allowed to quarterbacks and has given up the 3rd-fewest FPTs/G to tight ends, but has not had success against wideouts. Over their last four games the Falcons have allowed five different wide receivers to amass 90 or more receiving yards, and the team is giving up the 5th-most FPTs/G to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cardinals have stuck with Andre Ellington this year despite his paltry 3.3 yards per carry average. He hadn’t had a 100-yard game this season and has just three scores on the ground, but Ellington consistently gets between 15-20 carries and is the team’s co-leader in receptions, making him a valuable commodity. He is a top-10 running back in fantasy scoring, and should remain there after this week’s game with a vulnerable Falcons run defense.

Atlanta is 24th in the league in run defense, no team has surrendered more rushing scores than they have, and only three squads have given up more receiving yards to running backs. To sum things up, the Falcons have a defense that cannot stop running backs from running the ball, catching the ball, or scoring touchdowns. They also can’t stop backs from amassing fantasy points, and have allowed players at that position the most FPTs/G in the league.

Projections:
Drew Stanton: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Andre Ellington: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
John Brown: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 35 rec yds
John Carlson: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan had yet another average game last week in the team’s loss to Cleveland, with 273 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He isn’t a QB1 at this point, though the team does have fantasy options in the passing game. Most notable, Julio Jones, who finally caught a touchdown last week, breaking a string of seven games without a catch. Yet both he and Roddy White should be considered no more than a WR2 this week because the Cardinals do not allow many touchdowns through the air.

Arizona is 25th in the NFL in pass defense but tied for 5th-fewest passing scores allowed. Over their last four games they’ve held each quarterback they’ve faced to fewer than 220 yards while giving up only three scoring passes with five interceptions. The Cardinals have surrendered the 12th-fewest FPTs/G in the league to quarterbacks, and though they’re in the middle of the NFL when it comes to FPTs/G allowed to wide receivers, they’ve held each wideout they’ve faced over their last four games to fewer than 60 yards. Arizona has had trouble against tight ends this year however, having allowed the most receiving yards and 6th-most FPTs/G to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson managed only 34 yards on the ground last week, but he did find the end zone for the third time in four games. He’s been solid lately for fantasy owners due to his recent scoring prowess, but this week is one in which it’s probably best to leave him on the bench against Arizona’s run defense.

The Cardinals are 3rd in the league against the run and tied for 2nd-fewest rushing scores surrendered. No running back has managed 100 yards against them this year, and in fact no back has even broken 85 yards when facing Arizona. They’ve also managed to hold each of the runners they’ve faced out of the end zone via reception, and are currently tied with Baltimore for fewest FPTs/G allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Steven Jackson: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Julio Jones: 85 rec yds
Roddy White: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 25 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Falcons 20 ^ Top

Browns at Bills - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Even though for most of last game QB Brian Hoyer was inconsistent and made several critical errors, in literally the final seconds of the contest he was at his best and orchestrated a drive to setup the game winning field goal. After ten games of being without their star receiver, and arguably the single most explosive pass catcher in the league, the Browns were finally able to welcome WR Josh Gordon (suspension) back onto the field. He did not disappoint, with 120 receiving yards on eight of sixteen targets, all three of which were team highs for the week. Last season he led the league with 118 receiving yards per game, and in his only matchup of 2014 he appears to have picked up right where he left off. In his absence, a combination of Andrew Hawkins, Taylor Gabriel, and Miles Austin have carried the offense through the air, with Hawkins seeing a larger portion of the work. With Gordon back on the field it appears Hawkins has assumed the role of the second receiver, with Miles as number three, and Gabriel merely an afterthought as the fourth receiver. For the season Cleveland has averaged 251 passing yards per game, barely outside of the top ten, despite having the worst completion percentage in the league. They have been able to move the ball through the air because of their ability to record a big play, and not necessarily through a great volume of pass attempts. Getting Gordon back only increases their big play ability, creating the potential for the offense to take a significant step forward as the Browns continue to make a push for the playoffs.

Their opponent in Week 13 has postseason aspirations themselves, and if Buffalo hopes to earn a Wild Card berth they almost certainly have to win this game. Based on current standings there are seven teams with six or more wins who are vying for the final two playoff spots, and with a losing record in the conference the Bills currently find themselves on the outside looking in. The Buffalo pass defense has been doing what they can to keep the team in the playoff hunt, ranking fifth best in yards allowed as well as similarly impressive marks for interceptions forced and touchdowns surrendered. Additionally, the Bills are the most proficient team in the league at sacking the quarterback, and have top marks for pressures created with a standard four-man rush. This leaves the seven remaining defenders to drop into coverage and take away the top receiving threat of their opponent, and as their statistics show, Buffalo frequently forces quarterbacks into making costly errors. Where Cleveland may challenge this stellar pass defense is in providing adequate protection for Hoyer, who has taken fewer sacks than three quarters if the league, and thus potentially requiring additional pressure to come at the expense of additional coverage. If the offensive line can hold up that may give Hoyer enough time to find Gordon or Hawkins for enough big pass plays to overcome the Bills back seven.

Running Game Thoughts: With the Cleveland running back committee trimmed of its least productive member, both Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West had one of the better games of this season. As has been the case for nearly all of 2014, Crowell has been more efficient in his production, and because of his propensity to find the endzone he has been the better fantasy player more often than not compared to West. Though West has carried the ball 40% more often, he has only 5% more yardage than Crowell and less than half as many touchdowns; their production out of the backfield is nearly equally minimal, with the exception of West finding the endzone once compared to Crowell not scoring through the air. The Browns have made a concerted effort to run the ball, with only one team rushing more than they have. Because Crowell has been the only ball carrier to average more than 3.7 yards per carry, the Cleveland rushing attack doesn’t even rank in the top third of the league. The obvious solution to this problem would be to give Crowell more touches, but the Browns seem determined to evenly distribute their workload. Both running backs have received double-digit carries in three of the last four weeks, and as long as that trend continues Cleveland will not realize the full potential of their rushing attack.

Compounding the problem for this weekend is a top ten Bills run defense who allows fewer than 99 rushing yards per game and has surrendered the second fewest rushing touchdowns this season. Buffalo is also one of only ten teams to yield fewer than four yards per attempt, making them one of the all-around toughest teams to run against. In each of the last three games Buffalo has faced a top ten rushing attack, holding those teams to at or below their season averages on the ground and not allowing two of those three teams to find the endzone on a running play. Statistically it appears that the Bills may be slipping slightly since their bye week, but the increased quality of their competition can excuse that almost entirely. With respect to fantasy football, Buffalo has permitted the third fewest points to opposing running backs, and assuming that production will be split approximately evenly between Crowell and West, that severely limits the upside of either of the Browns ball carriers.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 230 pass yds, 1 TD
Isaiah Crowell: 65 rush yds
Terrance West: 40 rush yds
Josh Gordon: 85 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Gary Barnidge: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: After returning to Buffalo from their not-so-home game, the weather took a positive turn, with the temperature unexpectedly rising above freezing for roughly 90 hours, a far portion of which was over 50 degrees with patches of sunshine as well. Despite fears that the incredible snowfall from two weeks ago would jeopardize home games in consecutive weeks, the field and surrounding areas of Ralph Wilson Stadium appear to be free of frozen precipitation and ready for football. To the Bills credit, the disruptions from last week did nothing to disrupt their performances on the field, dispatching of a divisional opponent in dominant fashion. As usual QB Kyle Orton was conservative yet effective, with 230 passing yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Although rookie WR Sammy Watkins drew coverages all night long, the offense was able to adapt and instead target second year WR Robert Woods, whose 9-118-1 stat line was the best of his young career.

On Monday night no receiver other than Woods surpassed three catches or 35 receiving yards, and if defenses continue to shade coverages too heavily toward Watkins they can expect the Bills to work their passing attack through Woods instead. Now that the Browns will be without S Tashaun Gipson (knee) for the remainder of the year, the secondary will be without the league leader in individual interceptions and will likely find themselves in more difficult coverage situations. Through eleven games Cleveland has recorded 15 receptions as a team, so even without the six from Gipson they would be approximately average for the league. Prior to the injury Cleveland had previously found a delicate balance between applying pressure and dropping into coverage, not allowing too many yards, minimizing the number of touchdowns scored, and capitalizing on miscues from the offense. Though CB Joe Haden is still one of the best shutdown corners in the NFL the loss of Gipson may ultimately disrupt the secondary beyond that which Haden can control. For Week 13 however an elite cornerback and a respectable secondary should be able to handle the limited firepower the Bills have available.

Running Game Thoughts: In his return from injury RB Fred Jackson (groin) was eased back into the offense against a stout defensive front, splitting carries with RB Anthony Dixon during their displaced Monday night matchup. In that contest both runners received double-digit carries and each contributed as a receiver out of the backfield. In Week 12 Dixon was the more productive back and actually put in one of his best games of the season, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt and scoring his first touchdown as a member of the Bills. As long as the team remains in playoff contention, which may be largely determined by the outcome of the contest this weekend, Jackson is expected to see his workload increase and resume the role as the workhorse of the Buffalo backfield. Conversely, if the team loses and figures to be out of the running for a postseason berth, the Bills will likely seek to rest their veteran ball carrier to preserve his health for next season, effectively promoting Dixon to the starting spot. Though the on-field product may not change appreciably in either case, the fantasy implications are significant as managers are hopefully preparing for a playoff run just as much as Buffalo is on the gridiron. For the season the Bills are averaging just 98 rushing yards per game and have scored a touchdown on the ground in fewer than half of their contests. As it stands currently Jackson and Dixon are teetering on the edge of fantasy relevance, but a Bills loss would effectively eliminate the fantasy usefulness of Jackson and should necessarily increase the value of Dixon, as the young ball carrier may be asked to shoulder the load down the stretch if the team isn’t fighting for a playoff spot.

Assuming the Bills want to reestablish their running game and fully work Jackson back into the starting role, facing Cleveland certainly shouldn’t impede that goal. On the season the Browns have been the fourth worst in run defense, allowing 135 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry, the latter of which is also one of the worst five marks in the league. Even in the area where Cleveland is least bad, touchdowns surrendered, they’re still worse than average as they are tied for 17th fewest scores permitted on the ground. Of the teams that yield more than 115 rushing yards per game, the Browns are the only team to not have given up a single rush of 40 or more yards, suggesting that they are consistently beaten at the line of scrimmage, rather than being hit or miss and occasionally giving up a huge carry. For Buffalo, a team which averages less than four yards per rush attempt, any help they can get along the line of scrimmage will be appreciated. Chances are that, at least statistically, this game may be a relative plus for each side related to the Bills running game, with the Buffalo offense and the Browns defense finding a happy medium where both can slightly improve on their season averages. In this scenario, a rushing total in the low triple digits and a potential touchdown would be divided between Jackson and Dixon, with the veteran being the more likely back to have the favorable split.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 205 pass yds, 1 TD
Fred Jackson: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Anthony Dixon: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 55 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Bills 17, Browns 16 ^ Top

Dolphins at Jets - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: In the last four games QB Ryan Tannehill has completed more than 70% of his passes in each contest, after achieving that feat only twice in any of the previous seven matchups. His rate of interceptions in the four most recent contests has decreased to nearly half of its previous mark for the first seven games of the season. Tannehill has averaged better than two touchdowns per contest during the last four games, and prior to that time it took an average of almost two games to record three scores through the air. With him now in his third year, Miami is finally beginning to see the player they thought they were selecting with a top ten draft pick. The young quarterback is far from perfect, continuing to struggle with the deep ball and also lacking accuracy on some shorter throws, but his statistics and the team’s performances are both trending in the right direction. Getting rookie WR Jarvis Landry more involved with the passing game has seemed to help, where the young pass catcher has seen better consistency during the most recent four game stretch, recording 46 or more receiving yards in all four games as well as finding the endzone four times in as many contests. The relative rise of the youngster as come at the expense of WR Mike Wallace, who for the first time all season has gained less than 40 yards in back to back games, and has recorded no more than 51 receiving yards in any of the last four contests. Wallace is still the Dolphins biggest deep threat, and the attention he demands of the defense is one of the reasons why Landry continues to see success, but until he and Tannehill can resolve their timing issues Wallace will be little more than a potentially-explosive possession receiver in a short and mid-range passing attack.

Despite the recent improvements from Tannehill the Dolphins are still a bottom ten pass offense, though his season touchdown and interceptions totals are both better than average. Passing attacks much like the one Miami has under Tannehill are very nearly what have been so successful against New York for the majority of this season. The Jets are approximately average for the league in years allowed, but are the worst in the NFL for both of touchdowns surrendered and interceptions forced. After being on bye in Week 11, New York had two full weeks to prepare for their matchup last week, and all they have to show for it is a single sack, no interceptions, and a low-performing quarterback who exceeded the season averages for his team for yardage, touchdowns thrown, and completion percentage. By all objective measures the Jets underperformed against even their own lowly standards, and most subjective criteria saw New York fail to impress in any area of the pass defense. Considering the recent strides taken by Tannehill and the utter inability of the Jets to field a respectable collection of eleven players to defend against the pass, the Miami aerial attack has strong sleeper potential on Monday night.

Running Game Thoughts: Though Miami is a top ten rushing attack by averaging nearly 125 yards per game, in losing two of their last three contests the Dolphins have averaged just 91 yards and have had just one ball carrier break 60 yards in a game during that span. For most of the season the Dolphins rushing attack has been the most volatile aspect of the offense, such that when they find success on the ground they tend to win, and without a solid running game they tend to lose. However there has been a change in the overall offensive scheme, stemming from the gradual improvement of the quarterback. The beginning of the season was marked by a reliance on the running game, and when that faltered the passing attack usually couldn’t compensate. Recently Miami has found success through the air and that has provided more opportunities for the rushing attack, even if those opportunities aren’t being fully exploited by Dolphins ball carriers. The leader of the Miami backfield is undoubtedly RB Lamar Miller, who has recorded five touchdowns while no other ball carrier has more than one, and is also the only active running back on the team to average four or more yards per carry; his mark is 4.9. With no other running back contributing on a consistent level, the x-factor of the Miami running game is Tannehill, who has demonstrated his abilities as a ball carrier from designed runs as well as scrambling. Though he doesn’t pick up yards with his legs often, the few times each game he does usually keeps drives alive; he converts a first down more than once for every three times he rushes.

Only three teams in the NFL are better against the run than New York, but if offenses are able to exploit their poor pass defense it has a way of opening up the ground game from time to time. This happened both of the recent Jets losses, where the opposing quarterback completed a high percentage of his passes, was sacked only once, and threw two touchdowns with no interceptions, ultimately enabling their ground game to rack up more than 110 yards each and averaging at least four yards per carry. On average the Jets yield just 86 rushing yards per game, and are third in the league while giving up only 3.4 yards per attempt, so having two teams surpass these averages by approximately 20% is a relative but considerable failure by the New York run defense. In these two games the Jets offense has been particularly poor, and that lack of production has led to the defense being on the field more and thus being subject to defending additional plays. Of the four major areas of the team, offense and defense for both the run and passing games, the only aspect which isn’t horrible is the New York run defense, and it is from that area where any success will have to come.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 260 pass yds, 15 rush yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Daniel Thomas: 15 rush yds
Mike Wallace: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarvis Landry: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 45 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The off-field drama for the Jets may have reached a new season high thanks to a report which surfaced Tuesday night. A New York newspaper learned that this offseason Coach Rex Ryan was told by other coaches around the league that General Manager John Idzik planed on firing him at the end of the season. This underscores speculation that Ryan was coaching for his job this season, and now suggests that even a successful 2014 wouldn’t be good enough to save him. The interesting caveat here is that Idzik has recently found himself on the hot seat, arguably more so than Ryan, so it’s possible that the Coach could be safe even if the General Manager wishes him to be gone. On the field, this has played out by way of a quarterback crapshoot, with the young QB Geno Smith being the favorite of Idzik, and Ryan defaulting to the veteran QB Michael Vick, presumably because of being unimpressed with Smith. The organization’s decision to force Smith into the starting role, almost certainly a decision made by Idzik, has almost directly led to consecutive miserable seasons for the Jets. Smith has led the team disastrously and has largely failed to show any progression in his development. From a fantasy perspective no Jets signal caller nor pass catcher is worthy of a start, and they both can safely be dropped in all standard leagues. Word has come down that the organization if forcing Ryan to start Smith this weekend, and chances are that unless the young quarterback performs remarkably well, the New York General Manager may be swiftly approaching the end of his tenure.

Of all the teams a struggling passing attack doesn’t want to face, the Jets will see two of them in back to back weeks, the first of which was the Week 12 drubbing they just experienced. In that game New York surrendered seven sacks, scored only three total points, and tossed an interception. Their two quarterbacks completed less than 55% of their passes for 165 yards through the air, though the majority of those gains came when the game was decidedly out of hand. After supplanting Smith as the starter, Vick (calf, Probable) was pulled in the middle of the most recent game, reportedly for performance reasons. Compared to their latest opponent the Dolphins are slightly less impressive in the categories involving season totals, but since they’ve not played New York yet this season they’ll have two opportunities to pad their stats and rectify their current deficiencies. While most defenses would be favored against the anemic Jets passing attack and a nearly-comical quarterback controversy, the fact that Miami is also a top five defense through the air makes them a fantasy must-start for Monday night.

Running Game Thoughts: In four of their last five games the Jets have improved on their season average for rushing yards, bringing it up to better than 136 yards per game. Their rushing attack continues to improve despite the offense as a whole continuing to struggle. Perhaps as a reaction to poor quarterback play and a lack of receiving talent to utilize down the field, New York has the fifth best rushing attack in the league and a similarly strong ranking for yards per carry. The problem that continues to plague the Jets offense is that they’re eventually forced into passing situations, and once that happens they don’t have the adequate personnel to answer the challenge posed by the defense. On the season, RB Chris Ivory has been the primary ball carrier, but the Jets backfield is beginning to resemble a timeshare situation more and more, with RB Chris Johnson becoming more involved and taking rushing attempts away from Ivory. As the more dynamic runner, Johnson is also more involved in the passing game and is currently trending up while Ivory is holding steady or even slipping some. Both backs have outperformed the other twice during the last four games, alternating in doing so. If the pattern holds then Ivory should be in line for a slightly better game since Johnson did better last week, though without finding the endzone neither is anything more than a placeholder on a fantasy roster.

Though Gang Green has gotten far more recognition for their run defense, the Dolphins are certainly better than average in their own right. Miami allows fewer than 105 rushing yards per game and has surrendered one fewer touchdown than the Jets, bringing them into second place for that category. Despite winning only two of the last four games, the run defense has allowed more than 63 yards only once during that span, but on that occasion they conceded over 205 rushing yards. This should give a sliver of hope to the Jets, and while they may be held to reasonable totals, from time to time a dominant run performance can overpower the Dolphins and wreak havoc on the defense. The lack of a true passing game significantly reduces the considerations needing to be made by the defense, so if a team with a strong secondary is able to neutralize the aerial attack, the ground game should also be able to be held in check as the defense is able to load the box against the run. Previously the Jets have put forth incredible rushing games even in the face of tough competition, and if they’re able to do so again on Monday they should be able to control the tempo of the game and hopefully use that to earn only their third win all season.

Projections:
Geno Smith: 140 pass yds, 2 INTs
Chris Ivory: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Eric Decker: 60 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 25 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 9 ^ Top

Patriots at Packers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: This week we’ll see a matchup between two of the league’s hottest quarterbacks when Tom Brady and the Patriots come to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Brady was left for dead after his team got trounced by the Kansas City Chiefs on a Monday Night in Week 3, but have not lost a game since including blow out wins against the NFL’s best teams Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit. Brady has been a surgeon on the field and can pick apart opposing defenses utilizing transcendent talents like Rob Gronkowski or making due with lesser talents like Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Tim Wright. Gronkowski just may be the biggest mismatch in the NFL with his hulking size, strength and run after the catch abilities. The Gronk is really the only player that you can pencil in for a touchdown on a weekly basis.

The Green Bay pass defense has been very good all season. Green Bay is allowing 234.4 passing yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns allowed and 17 interceptions on the season. Much like the game against Indianapolis, this may be a game where Bill Belichick decides to pound the ball against a weak run defense while keeping a prolific opposing passing offense on the sideline, which may be the biggest factor limiting the New England passing attack.

Running Game Thoughts: So how many snaps would you give to a young running back that just amassed 201 yards and scored four rushing touchdowns the previous week? If you are Belichick the answer of course would be, “none.” Jonas Gray had one of the best rushing days in NFL history in Week 11 in Indianapolis, but one dead cell phone battery that caused him to oversleep and miss a team meeting landed him in the doghouse and on the sideline watching the newly signed LeGarrette Blount rush for 78 yards and two scores against the league’s top-ranked run defense. For those of you not named Belichick, your guess is as good as mine as to how the running back rotation will look this week. Shane Vereen has excelled in the “passing back” role and should see snaps and targets in a game that could quickly turn into a shootout, but as stated above this week has the feel of a game where the Patriots normally would try and exploit their opponents weakness, so one of the team’s “power backs” could be in play this week.

That weakness would be the league’s 30th ranked run defense. The Packers have been gashed all season by opposing running backs, allowing 136.7 yards per game on the ground.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 285 pass yds, 3 TDs, 5 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Jonas Gray: 55 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 25 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 65 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 55 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 60 rec yds, 2 TDs

Passing Game Thoughts: Rodgers was cooled down a bit last week in Minnesota as the Vikings made a concerted effort to shut down his star wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb with constant double teams. Rodgers still threw for 209 yards with two touchdowns, with one going to a wide open rookie tight end Richard Rodgers and the other on a shuffle pass to running back Eddie Lacy. The Vikings paid the price for rolling their safeties to Nelson and Cobb consistently by being gashed by the Packers’ run game, and Rodgers taking what was given to him. Nelson still saw 12 targets as well. There will be better days ahead for the main players in the Packer’s passing attack.

The matchup doesn’t get any better this week, however, as the Packers take on the ever improving Patriot pass defense that shut down the Lions last week. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner should be locked down on Nelson and Cobb this week, which may very well lead to two quiet weeks in a row for Green Bay’s dynamic duo.

Running Game Thoughts: Lacy and the Packers took advantage of the Vikings moving both safeties out of the middle of the field to help out on the Packer’s wide receivers to rumble for 125 yards and a touchdown. For the third consecutive week, he was also on the receiving end of an Rodgers touchdown pass, this time taking a shovel pass from in close across the goal-line. Lacy has improved his yards per carry up to 4.4 now after an extremely slow start to the season where he faced the upper echelon of run defenses. Lacy is rounding into shape, and looks like the power back that carried the team while Rodgers missed time last season. With Lacy running wild, this offense becomes even tougher to defend.

The Patriot’s run defense has been coming together the last few weeks, making it difficult for opposing runners to gain any traction. On the season the team is allowing 108.2 yards per game and has given up only five rushing touchdowns.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
James Starks: 15 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 45 rec yds
Davante Adams: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Packers 37, Patriots 34 ^ Top

Panthers at Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton’s ankle hasn’t been 100 percent this season, but coming off of a Week 12 bye it should be as healed up as it has been all season. His 293 yards rushing puts him on pace for his worst rushing season of his career. He’s also struggled as a passer more often than not this season. He’s on pace to throw for 16 interceptions, the highest total since his rookie season. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin has quickly become Newton’s go-to receiver. While he’s shown concentration lapses at times and isn’t the most polished route runner, he has shown tremendous ability to separate using his size to fight off defenders. Outside of Benjamin, veteran Greg Olsen is the only other player at a skill position that has shown any signs of life for the Panthers. At 29, he’s having the best season of his career and should remain a focal point for this offense.

The Vikings pass defense got the best of Rodgers last week as they managed to take away his two most dangerous weapons. They shouldn’t have to pay nearly as much attention to anyone on the Panthers as they did to Nelson and Cobb last week however. The Vikings allow 223.5 passing yards per game but have yielded 19 touchdown passes. This matchup could be the key to the game.

Running Game Thoughts: Veterans DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are finally both healthy, but neither back is really much of a threat anymore. The oft-injured Stewart has been much better than the 31-year-old Williams, but a long history of lower leg injuries have robbed him of the exceptional burst and speed that once belied his huge frame. Teams once feared facing such a talented backfield, but now that even Newton isn’t as much as a threat with his legs, this rushing attack has become an afterthought.

The Vikings play the run effectively allowing 118.9 rushing yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns. If the weather is inclement in the now outdoor home field for Minnesota, we could see both teams look to run the ball, making this one of the lower scoring contests of the week.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 35 rush yd, 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jonathan Stewart: 65 rush yds 15 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 65 rec yards
Jerricho Cotchery: 25 rec yds
Philly Brown: 25 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater had one of his best games of his rookie season last week against the Packers. It still amounted to not much more than a “game manager” threshold, as he threw for 210 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Athletic wide receiver Charles Johnson broke out with six catches for 87 yards in Week 11 with Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright missing time, and he once again led the way, despite the veterans both suiting up in Week 12. He now has 139 yards and a touchdown over that last two weeks and at 6’2”, 217 pounds with 4.38 speed he’s an intriguing player going forward for a team that lacks playmakers. Kyle Rudolph has been quiet since his return two weeks ago, but should start to get worked into the offense and be a nice safety net for a quarterback that has shown a tendency to prefer the short passing game.

The Panthers have been beatable through the air allowing 254.9 passing yards per game and have given up 20 passing touchdowns on the season. The Vikings passing attack has been conservative with a rookie quarterback under center, but sooner or later Norv Turner is going to have to open things up. This could be a good week to do so.

Running Game Thoughts: For a while the Vikings rushing attack continued to hum along despite the lack or star running back Adrian Peterson, but dynamic rookie Jerick McKinnon (back) may have hit the rookie wall and veteran Matt Asiata missed last week with a concussion. Former Cleveland Brown Ben Tate was claimed off of waivers during the week leading up to the Packer game, but he did not see the field. The team instead increased the workload of McKinnon and used Joe Banyard as a third down back. Asiata has been cleared to play and should resume his role as the No.2 running back.

The Panthers’ run defense has come along slowly after a slow start and is allowing 119.1 yards per game with 13 touchdowns on the season. Those numbers could be even better if they didn’t include an apparent outlier game against Pittsburgh where they gave up 264 yards on the ground. The team is extremely strong up the middle with Star Lotulelei, Luke Kuechley and Thomas Davis, only making this run defense even stronger.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 65 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Johnson: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 35 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Vikings 24, Panthers 17 ^ Top

Saints at Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been putting up his typical flashy numbers but he’s been turning the ball over too often and his team isn’t winning. On the season Brees has thrown for 3,491 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions (plus two fumbles). He threw his third pick-six of the season in a Monday Night loss to the Baltimore Ravens that closed out Week 12. Tight end Jimmy Graham, as usual was Brees’ main weapon. He caught six passes for 47 yards and two touchdowns. Productive rookie Brandin Cooks was placed on IR after breaking his thumb so Brees will be relying on veteran Marques Colston and second-year Kenny Stills for the rest of the season. Colston has had a quiet season but caught four passes for 82 yards and a score on Monday Night, but was still low in the pecking order for targets behind Graham, Stills and the running backs. While he’s only 31 years old, his knees have been giving him fits for many years and he can’t be relied on by the Saints or fantasy owners.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints struggled to run the ball against the Ravens, but have otherwise run the ball effectively this season. Mark Ingram is having his best NFL season in a contract year and has been a workhorse for the team with Khiry Robinson missing a lot of time. Veteran Pierre Thomas returned from injury and continued in his role as the third down back and also see a share of carries to spell Ingram. Thomas is a “jack of all trades” in running and his value to this offense is highly under-rated. He should see an uptick in touches once he works back into game shape.

The Steelers are only allowing 102.2 yards per game on the ground, and should be seeing the return of Jarvis Jones soon. The team could use his young fresh legs, but he’s likely still at least one more week away

Projections:
Drew Brees: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Marques Colston: 45 rec yds
Kenny Stills: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Jimmy Graham: 95 rec yds, 2 TDs

Passing Game Thoughts: Preceding the team’s bye week, Ben Roethlisberger had a historic two-game stretch where he threw for 12 touchdowns followed up by another two-game stretch where he threw for only one touchdown in each game. In those last two games against the Jets and Titans, Ben was under constant duress and was hit often. Hopefully, the team used its bye week to work on their blocking schemes as the team has a favorable schedule against the pass to finish up the season. Antonio Brown has clearly been the focal point of the passing offense but has found a Robin to his Batman in rookie Martavis Bryant who has scored six touchdowns in the Steelers’ last five games. Bryant at 6’4” is the big receiver the team has been missing and looking for since they lost Plaxico Burress.

The Saints arrival at Heinz Field should help the passing game get back on track, as they have really struggled in pass defense. The Saints are allowing 253.3 passing yards per game and 17 touchdown passes with only six interceptions.

Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell has been the best running back in the league this season behind only the Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray. Bell lost 20 pounds over the offseason, maintaining his power and quick feet, but adding more agility and straight-line speed into the mix. Bell is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and is coming off a game where he rushed for 204 yards before the bye week. Bell also excels in the passing game with 57 receptions for 484 yards on the season. Veteran LeGarrette Bount was released from the team following the Week 11 Monday Night game where he left the field early when he felt that he wasn’t seeing enough carries while Bell ran wild against the Titans. The Steelers called up Josh Harris from the practice squad who will join rookie Dri Archer in backing up Bell. Expect Bell to be a true workhorse back going forward.

The Saints are coming off a game where veteran journeyman Justin Forsett scorched them for 189 yards on the ground. On the season the team is allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns. Bell should be in for a big week.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 325 pass yds, 2 TDs, 20 rush yds
Le’Veon Bell: 85 rush yds, 2 TDs, 45 rec yds
Dri Archer: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Martavis Bryant: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Saints 31, Steelers 28 ^ Top

Chargers at Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers has struggled mightily in recent weeks after starting out the year looking like a serious MVP candidate. Antonio Gates let it slip that Rivers is struggling with a rib injury, but the team has denied it. Until he gets healthy and/or better, the passing game will suffer. Gates has been remarkably productive for a 34-year-old tight end, but his best days are clearly far back in the rearview mirror. He can still get open, and a sliver of that athleticism still remains so he still makes a nice security blanket for his long time quarterback.

Keenan Allen is starting to pick his production back up despite the overall struggles of the passing game, after a small sophomore slump that followed a very good rookie season. Allen is already one of the league’s best route runners, and is an aggressive and productive runner after the catch despite lacking breakaway speed. This passing attack still has the pieces in place to be amongst the league’s best, so it could be just a matter of time before it rounds itself back into shape.

The Baltimore Ravens have a top-five ranked defense overall, but they have allowed teams to move the ball through the air against them. They are allowing 264.6 passing yards per game and have only yielded 17 passing touchdowns thus far. In recent weeks the team has been able to generate a pass rush, something that was missing earlier in the season and the front seven could have its way against a battered San Diego offensive line.

Running Game Thoughts: Last season Ryan Mathews was one of the league’s most productive running backs down the stretch, and if an injury marred first half of the season, it’s looking like that may be the case once again. Mathews rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries last week against a tough Rams’ defense. He suffered a shoulder injury in the third quarter but came back into the game. Injuries have always been an issue for Mathews, but his talent is undeniable and even behind a subpar offensive line, he should finish up the season on a strong note as he heads into free agency.

It will be tough sledding for Mathews however this Sunday as the Ravens are allowing only 88.3 yards per game on the ground and have only allowed six rushing touchdowns this season. If the Chargers can’t get anything going on the ground, it will put more pressure on Rivers and the passing game which could lead to problems for the Chargers.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Ryan Mathews: 85 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Branden Oliver: 35 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 80 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco had an efficient and effective outing against a soft Saints’ secondary on Monday Night. Flacco has settled in as a slightly above average NFL quarterback and a steady and dependable QB2 for fantasy teams. Torrey Smith who was non-existent in the offense early in the season has turned things around and should finish the season with respectable production. Smith is a deep burner who has worked hard to refine his overall game. He is the team’s best weapon in the passing attack and should be heavily targeted to close out the season. However its veteran Steve Smith that has been the true star of the passing game for 2015. The former Panther was off to a torrid start before slowing down a bit in the midseason, but put up 89 yards and a score where he used his strength to fight for the ball against heavy coverage in the corner of the endzone. He has put up a 53-817-5 statline in eleven games after a full season statline of 64-745-4 in 2013.

The Falcons allow 221.3 passing yards per game and have allowed 18 touchdown passes on the season. The Chargers have no real pass rush to speak of with only 18 sacks on the season, so Flacco should have time in the pocket to find his speedy Smiths downfield.

Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett who effectively occupied the third down, change of pace role earlier in the season has earned the majority of the backfield carries since Bernard Pierce was forced to miss time with a groin injury. The veteran journeyman has been fantastic and has been the key cog in the Baltimore offense that could have been in real trouble after losing Ray Rice. Forsett is coming off a career high 182-yard effort with two touchdowns against the Saints and has 903 yards at 5.8 yards per carry average on the season. He gets to run behind one of the better offensive lines in the league, but Forsett has also shown tremendous balance, vision and speed during his career year at 29 years old.

The Chargers have been a middle of the pack rush defense, allowing 108.8 yards and seven rushing touchdowns on the season. Leaning on the running game and allowing Flacco to have a lesser role has been working for the Ravens in recent weeks and if their defense can hold the Chargers offense down, we should expect more of the same this week.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 215 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
Bernard Pierce: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 95 rush yds, 1 TD 35 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 85 rec yds
Steve Smith: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen Daniels: 20 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Ravens 27, Chargers 20 ^ Top

Raiders @ Rams - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The final “0” is gone as the Oakland Raiders and rookie quarterback Derek Carr got their first win of the 2014 season this past week against their long-time rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. It was, of course, a huge momentum boost for the team who had spent a calendar year without a victory. Unfortunately, these late-season victories won’t mean much for the team in the grand scheme of things and it didn’t mean much for fantasy owners, either. Carr threw for just 174 yards and a touchdown, although he did avoid throwing an interception for the second straight week. He has, however, failed to throw for even 200 yards in four straight contests. Wide receiver James Jones finally got back on the board with a decent fantasy day, however, as he caught his first touchdown since all the way back in Week 6. Andre Holmes turned in a decent game with five catches for 55 yards - his most since Week 8 - but he was unable to score a touchdown and has now gone four contests without getting into the end zone. This passing game appeared to be blossoming into something interesting earlier in the year, but it now appears as if it won’t produce much for the remainder of the season.

They’ll have a tough matchup in Week 13, as well, as they head to St. Louis to face a Rams defense that was once struggling against the pass but has become one of the stingiest secondaries in the league in recent weeks. In Week 11, St. Louis held Peyton Manning to a season-low one touchdown pass. Then in Week 12, they held Philip Rivers to only one touchdown pass. They have now conceded just four passing touchdowns over their past five games combined. Needless to say, with the Raiders struggling to put points on the board, this is not the time to be taking a chance on their offense with your fantasy lineup.

Running Game Thoughts: It has been an embarrassingly bad season from both veteran Raiders tailbacks Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden. Neither player has cracked 100 yards in any game this season and they’ve scored a combined two touchdowns. Most had completely written off this backfield, and for good reason. But in Week 12, we saw the emergence of a player who may just be the future at tailback for the silver and black. Latavius Murray’s 112 yards and two touchdown performance against the Chiefs was impressive for a number of reasons, but on just four carries, he practically did more than Jones-Drew or McFadden had done all season. Murray was knocked out of the game with a concussion, but has been practicing late this week which gives him a good chance to play this Sunday.

In Week 13, the Raiders backs will be running against a St. Louis defense that had been holding most running backs in check prior to a lackluster performance against Ryan Mathews and the Chargers a week ago. The Chargers’ tailbacks rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown in that game, but the Rams had held Frank Gore, Andre Ellington and C.J. Anderson to a combined 111 rushing yards in their previous three games combined. While it’s too early to know if the coaching staff in Oakland will trust him to take more carries or if they will opt to continue to essentially give up on their running game by giving the carries to McFadden and Jones-Drew, this is certainly a situation that is worth watching. There is little question that Murray gives the team the most explosion out of the backfield, so it could just be a matter of gaining the coaching staff’s trust and staying healthy.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Darren McFadden: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
James Jones: 50 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Mychal Rivera: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s sad that this is viewed as a big thing, but at least the Rams are starting to get some production out of their quarterback position in recent weeks. Since taking over the job in Week 11, Shaun Hill has thrown for 418 yards and two touchdowns while going 1-1 against the Broncos and Chargers. Unfortunately, as has been the case all season, we haven’t seen much consistency from any of the teams’ receiving options. Wideout Kenny Britt did have an excellent Week 11 against the Broncos when he caught four passes for 128 yards and a touchdown, but again became a fantasy non-factor in Week 12 when he caught just two passes for 37 yards. Meanwhile Stedman Bailey, who had just eight catches through the first 11 weeks of the season, led the team with seven receptions for 89 yards in Week 12. Bailey played his most snaps (44) all season in the close loss to the Chargers and does have the potential to be a decent player down the road, but it is way too early to begin trusting him for fantasy production. Britt remains a boom-or-bust type of option while tight end Jared Cook is now back to being irrelevant for fantasy after scoring a touchdown back in Week 10 against the Cardinals.

A matchup against the hapless Raiders who rank 20th against opposing quarterbacks will be one of the best matchups that the Rams see all season, but it is going to be extremely difficult to find anything worth considering in this passing game until we see more consistency. The Raiders have allowed eight passing touchdowns over their past three games, however, so there are worse options than Hill if you’re looking for a one week option as a QB2 in two-quarterback leagues.

Running Game Thoughts: Tre Mason might be the only player in this entire game who has any real chance to make the starting lineup in your average fantasy football league. Mason’s 16 carries in Week 12 marked the sixth straight game that he has led the team in carries and while he only ran for 62 yards, he was able to add a 26-yard reception out of the backfield to help boost his fantasy value a bit. With neither team having much firepower in their passing game, look for both teams to run the ball quite frequently in this contest which could lead to another 20-touch day for Mason. If he’s able to get that big of a workload, it shouldn’t be difficult for him to produce some decent fantasy numbers in this game against the Raiders. Oakland has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, including having allowed at least 90 rushing yards against them in four straight contests. Opposing running games have averaged nearly 160 total yards per game against this defense and the Raiders have given up 13 total touchdowns to the position in their 11 games. Mason makes for an excellent Flex option this week and even a solid RB2. His value isn’t quite as high in PPR formats as Benny Cunningham continues to see more of the catches out of the backfield, but Mason should still be in your lineup in this excellent matchup.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Stedman Bailey: 50 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Rams 20, Raiders 14 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: After throwing a season-low one touchdown pass with two interceptions against the Rams in Week 11, Peyton Manning was back at it again, continuing his record-setting pace with another four touchdown performance in Week 12. The Dolphins seemed to have no answer for Manning and the Broncos despite tight end Julius Thomas sitting out the game with a sprained left ankle. Thomas frustrated fantasy owners as he was a game-time decision in a late-afternoon game, which led to many owners taking a “0” from the position in Week 12. That might leave a bitter taste in some owners’ mouths, but Thomas is expected to be back in Week 13. Emmanuel Sanders continued his monstrous season with yet another 100-yard performance, his seventh of the season. Meanwhile his fellow wide receiver Demaryius Thomas saw his string of seven straight games with 100-plus yards receiving come to an end, but fantasy owners certainly were not complaining as he made up for it with 10 catches for 87 yards and three touchdowns. Wes Welker finally got back onto the fantasy scoreboard with his first touchdown since Week 7, but with only 18 yards on four catches, he remains someone you can’t trust for fantasy at the moment. The Broncos will have an interesting match on the road against the second-place Chiefs in Week 13. The Chiefs held Julius Thomas to just 39 yards when these teams met back in Week 2, but he was able to sneak into the end zone, saving an otherwise weak fantasy day. Demaryius Thomas was held to 62 yards on the day, but also scored a touchdown. Sanders led the team with eight catches for 108 yards in that contest, but did not score a touchdown of his own.

The Chiefs may have given up three scores to the Broncos when these teams played in Week 2, but it’s worth noting that they have held opposing QB’s to two or fewer touchdowns in every other game they’ve played so far this season. Nevertheless, the Broncos offense is too good to sit anyone other than Welker in and there’s really no reason to think that you’ll get burned by any of them.

Running Game Thoughts: Broncos third-string running back C.J. Anderson may have just earned the starting job going forward with a gigantic Week 12 performance against the Dolphins. Anderson took 27 carries and ran for 167 yards - by far the most of any Bronco this season - while also scoring a touchdown and catching four passes for 28 yards. Anderson has quietly been a very active member of the Denver passing game as even in a Week 11 loss to the Rams when he took only nine carries, he was able to catch eight passes for 86 yards. Anderson now has 19 receptions over his past four games and can be trusted as at least a high-end RB2 in just about all formats, but especially in PPR leagues.

Things should continue to go well for Anderson this week as he goes up against a Kansas City defense that has struggled to slow down the run as of late. The Chiefs have given up a total of 529 rushing yards and a whopping 71 fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing running backs over their past four games. While they did well slowing down the Denver running game back in Week 2, things were very different back then with Montee Ball taking the majority of the carries. Anderson seems to have the explosion and versatility that Ball lacked and that could mean a long day for the Kansas City defense.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 340 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
C.J. Anderson: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 25 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chiefs took a humiliating defeat to the previously winless Raiders in Week 12, but fantasy owners who took a chance on Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith were probably happy they did. Smith threw for 234 yards, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s the most he has thrown for since all the way back in Week 4. Not only that, but after failing to throw a touchdown pass against the Bills or Seahawks in Weeks 10 and 11, Smith was able to toss two scores in Week 12. A 17-point fantasy day isn’t much for some of the game’s best quarterbacks, but for Smith, who had previously only hit that total twice all season, it was a very productive day. Unfortunately the Chiefs receiving options continue to be a complete wasteland as only backup tight end Anthony Fasano and running back Jamaal Charles were the recipients of touchdown passes. Fasano’s fellow tight end Travis Kelce did lead the team with four catches for 67 yards, but he has now failed to score a touchdown in five of his past six games since his three-week stretch of touchdowns earlier this season. Dwayne Bowe is the only Kansas City receiver who has any value, but he has just 60 yards on five catches over his past two contests.

A matchup against the Broncos in Week 13 should be good for fantasy purposes, but it’s almost impossible to trust anyone in this passing game. The Broncos have allowed a total of 22 passing touchdowns in their 11 games this season and at least one passing touchdown in every game except one. That one game? You guessed it, against the Chiefs.

Running Game Thoughts: A complete lack of production from the Kansas City passing game hasn’t stopped running back Jamaal Charles from continuing to be one of the most productive players in all of fantasy football. Charles led the league in scoring from the running back position in 2013 and has a real chance to make a run at that crown again here in 2014 if he continues to do what he has done as of late, even despite the fact that he essentially missed two full contests early in the year. Charles has been a fantasy monster since coming back from that injury in Week 4 as he has produced 14-or-more fantasy points (standard scoring) in all but one game. He has also scored at least one touchdown in six straight games. While he hasn’t been quite as active in the passing game this season as he was in 2013, Charles remains one of the best do-it-all backs in the league and should have a good chance to produce good numbers in this game against the Broncos.

Denver had been one of the better run defenses in the league for a stretch during the middle of the season, but they have struggled as of late. They’ve given up 14-or-more points to opposing running backs in three of their past four contests. Charles was injured early in the game when these teams played back in Week 2, but does have a history of solid games against the Broncos. If the Chiefs can stay close in this game, look for Charles to touch the ball 20-plus times, which makes him, as he usually is, a very solid RB1 here in Week 13.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 60 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 31, Chiefs 23 ^ Top