Bills at Dolphins
Passing Game Thoughts: Coming out
of the bye in Week 9, Buffalo started last Sunday almost as perfectly
as possible. The defense forced a three and out, and the offense
marched down the field to score on their first possession; QB
Kyle Orton completed four of five attempts (one drop) for 48 yards
and a touchdown. The following 55 minutes didn’t exactly
go well, despite statistically the passing attack having no clear
deficiencies other than recording a season high for drops. For
the fourth time this year WR Sammy Watkins did not gain more than
30 receiving yards, and in all four of those games the Bills have
lost. In the five contests where he has surpassed 30 yards the
team is undefeated. While force-feeding a rookie via the passing
game rarely leads to good things historically, in this case it
seems the first year phenom may be the key to Buffalo having success
through the air, and more importantly he appears to be central
to their success as a team. After beating them at home in Week
2, on Thursday night the Bills will travel to Miami in search
of a season sweep, their second time to do so in as many years.
Orton has not thrown an interception in the last two games and
is averaging 277 passing yards in his five starts this season.
Presumably, if he can continue to protect the ball and can find
a way to involve Watkins in the offense at a more appreciable
rate, Buffalo might be able pull off the sweep and take a commanding
hold of second place in the NFC East.
In their first meeting Watkins caught eight passes for 117 yards
and a touchdown, making it the first big game of his NFL career.
It would take him another three weeks to surpass four catches
or 30 receiving yards for a second time, and it wouldn’t
be until Week 7 until he had his breakout game of 122 yards and
two scores. Since that initial encounter the league has come to
know the Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and Miami is
certainly going to be ready for him this time around. However,
unlike their Week 2 matchup, CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) is not
expected to be available after he has missed practice all week,
leaving the talented Dolphins secondary without their most veteran
member and one of the most passionate defenders in the league.
With a lack of offensive firepower at their disposal Buffalo may
not be able to fully take advantage of the personnel shortage
in the secondary, but Orton has demonstrated the ability to spread
the ball around to anyone on the team so there ought to be opportunities
presented on Thursday night. In the front seven, the Dolphins
are one of the most prolific at forcing sacks, and they’ll
be facing a Buffalo offensive line that ranks outside of the top
ten in sacks allowed. The pressure created along the line of scrimmage
may be able to mitigate the loss of Finnegan on the back end,
but as the Bills surrendered only one sack last game, it’s
possible that they used their bye to fix their problems with pass
protection and Miami may have a tougher time getting to Orton.
Running Game Thoughts: The beginning of the return of RB Fred
Jackson (groin) may have begun to shine light on the Bills backfield.
With seven total touches for 49 yards from scrimmage in Week 10,
Jackson was far from the workhorse he was before injury, but any
involvement in the game plan is undoubtedly a good sign. In the
game RB Anthony Dixon still received the most carries and gained
the most rushing yards, but BR Bryce Brown saw the most total
touches and gained more yardage because of his involvement in
the passing game. Had it not been for a goal line fumble he also
would have scored the only touchdown of any of the running backs,
and in the bigger picture, Buffalo likely would have won the game.
This was also the first week where the Bills appeared to utilize
Brown to get the most out of his abilities as a playmaker, so
as Jackson returns to full availability it is that tandem which
is to be expected. Because of it being a short week, Dixon is
likely to see a share of the workload for one more game, but going
forward his fantasy utility is limited to situational replacement
duties.
Buffalo averages just over 100 rushing yards per game and the
Dolphins allow just under that amount; offensively that puts the
Bills barely inside the top 20, and on the other side Miami is
comfortably inside the top ten. Even without the injury concerns
the Buffalo rushing attack would likely have its hands full on
Thursday night, but if Jackson can continue to progress he may
bring some needed stability to that aspect of the offense. On
the season the Dolphins are yielding fewer than four yards per
carry, again a top ten mark, and only one team has surrendered
fewer rushing touchdowns. The strong run defense is anchored by
the same front seven which has been terrorizing quarterbacks and
disrupting the line of scrimmage all season long, and they’re
backed up by a secondary which tackles with the same ferocity
that they use in defending through the air. Across major standard
formats, the Dolphins are the second highest scoring defense in
fantasy football, and while the majority of those points come
against the pass, they are certainly more than adequate against
the run.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs
Fred Jackson: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Bryce Brown: 35 rush yds, 50 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Chris Hogan: 50 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 35 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: With a little help from loose rounding guidelines
and Common Core math teachings, it would appear that QB Ryan Tannehill
is improving in home games as the season progresses; in road games
he’s generally getting worse, though the mathematics are
even more loosely interpreted. From the confines of Sun Life Stadium
Tannehill has thrown for approximately 230 yards with two scores
and one pick in each of the four home games, but most recently
he was just short of 290 with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
The team still struggles with the deep ball, but the team’s
deep threat receiver keeps finding ways to contribute. In each
game this season WR Mike Wallace has gained at least 50 yards
or has scored a touchdown, and on four occasions has done both,
almost regardless of the venue or the performance by his quarterback.
Behind Wallace it has been rookie WR Jarvis Landry who has emerged
as the second leading receiver, surpassing the once-reliable WR
Brian Hartline, and generally outperforming TE Charles Clay as
well. The passing attack of Miami ranks just inside the top 20
for the league, but if Tannehill can continue his gradual improvement
as the season wears on then there’s the chance of fantasy
relevancy for Wallace as the playoff push intensifies.
Across the league there are only five teams who have not given
up more touchdowns than they’ve forced interceptions, and
for the second week in a row the Dolphins will play one of those
teams. Of that most opportunistic quintet, Buffalo surrenders
the second fewest yards per game and has recorded nearly 50% more
sacks than the team with the next highest total. The Bills are
at or near the top of most statistical categories, and the only
one where they’re outside the top eight is in quarterback
completion percentage, arguably the least significant of the major
areas. In their Week 2 encounter Tannehill was sacked four times
and recorded one touchdown along with one interception while completing
63% of his passes for 241 yards; that stat line is approximately
representative of an average game for the Buffalo defense. In
their three most recent contests combined the Bills have given
up fewer than 500 total passing yards and have recorded 15 sacks,
six interceptions, and have allowed just one passing touchdown.
Though none of those three opponents had a passing attacked ranked
outside of the bottom four, the challenge presented by Tannehill
and company is only marginally more daunting, and as such the
Bills defense should be started with confidence in all fantasy
formats. Players involved with the Miami passing game should necessarily
be started with sat wherever possible, and started only with caution
and foolish optimism.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite having a top eight rushing attack
and averaging nearly 128 yards on the ground per game, only once
in any of the last three games as any Miami running back gained
more than 50 yards on the ground, and in the latest contest the
team didn’t even surpass that mark. The top Dolphins ball
carrier is RB Lamar Miller (shoulder), but after batting through
injury to play last week he was limited by that same injury after
only five total touches. In his stead, backup RBs Daniel Thomas
and Damien Williams were underwhelming, with Thomas fumbling and
failing to convert in short yardage situations, and Williams not
being given enough touches to make up for the damage caused by
his counterpart. In limited action though the rookie had several
impressive plays, both on the ground and through the air, so from
the perspective of potential he is the significantly better backup.
For this week however Miami ball carriers will find additional
struggles to overcome, with T Branden Albert (knee) out for the
year and G Daryn Colledge (ankle) not practicing and expected
to be out for Thursday night. Between injuries, inconsistencies,
and absences the Dolphins backfield has too many questions to
be relied on after a normal week of practice, and on a short week
they can safely be altogether ignored.
As if the ground game didn’t have enough to worry about,
they’ll be squaring off against a Bills defense which ranks
eighth against the run and surrenders just 96 yards per game.
They’ve given up only five rushing touchdowns all season,
but all of them have come in the last two contests to rushing
attacks that rank in the top five for the league. Aside from the
scoring totals, and the ever-growing injury report, the Dolphins
ground game would rank just behind those two teams that have recently
found success against Buffalo, so under different circumstances
there might have been reason for optimism in this Thursday night
contest. As it stands though, Miami is without their most talented
running back, their top backup is not healthy, and behind him
there is a competition between a rookie and a washed up veteran
as to who earns the right to run behind an injured offensive line,
all on a short week of preparation and against one of the best
run defenses in the league. Based on roughly half of a game’s
worth of work, Williams is the only Dolphins ball carrier worth
considering this week, but only in deep leagues or if bye weeks
have created a need for a flex starter. He has the skills to contribute,
but his potential is almost certain to go unrealized yet again
this week.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Lamar Miller: 20 rush yds
Damien Williams: 35 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarvis Landry: 45 rec yds
Charles Clay: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Bills 17, Dolphins 13 ^ Top
Buccaneers at Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: In what was
only his third complete game of the season, QB Josh McCown returned
to the starting lineup after a six week absence, only to find
that the Buccaneers have the same struggles whether he’s
on the field or on the sidelines. The offensive line has now given
up 11 sacks in the three games since the bye week, including four
in Week 10. The pressure has contributed to Tampa Bay only four
times having a quarterback throw fewer interceptions than touchdowns,
none of which occurred while being led by McCown. With two struggling
quarterbacks at the helm it comes as no surprise that the team
is in the bottom ten of all but one major category, and if garbage
time touchdowns were excluded they would nearly be the worst in
the league with that respect as well. On the season, the pair
have been complementary sides of the same bad coin, but sitting
with one win after nine games Coach Lovie Smith has decided to
turn the passing attack back over to McCown, hoping that they
can begin to make up the three games that separate them from first
place in the NFC South. The bright spot of the aerial attack has
been rookie WR Mike Evans, who with a single exception has seen
his yardage totals increase in each of the eight games he’s
played this year, including the two most recent contests where
he recorded at least 124 yards and a touchdown in each. Evans
now leads the team in receiving yards, touchdown catches, and
plays over 20 yards, despite missing one game and not leading
the team in either targets or receptions. With veteran WR Vincent
Jackson still demanding attention from the defense, his rookie
counterpart is able to take advantage of the favorable matchups
defenses are presenting on the other side of the field. Those
two represent half or more of the team’s receiving yards
and touchdowns while earning just short of half of the passing
targets; no other receiver or tight end contributes consistently
enough to warrant owning in most fantasy leagues.
In the past two games Evans has led the league in deep ball attempts
and production, a trend which will likely continue against a Redskins
secondary that has given up the third most touchdowns on deep
passes in the league. Counterintuitively, Washington is actually
one of the stingiest defenses in passing yards allowed, but when
they do get beaten it tends to get taken to the house. The unit
as a whole is struggling with injuries, which has contributed
to the secondary being dead last in interceptions forced. The
pass rushers are having difficulty creating pressure and that
has forced the defensive backs to play more conservatively and
not allowed them to try to create turnovers. All things considered,
the defensive philosophy of containment has worked reasonably
well, holding opponents to 17 or fewer points four times this
season and losing only one game by more than 11 points. On the
injury front Washington will be getting back DT Barry Cofield
(ankle, groin) for the first time in eight weeks, and his presence
should give some much needed versatility to a defensive line which
has been handcuffed due to a lack of depth and by attrition in
the linebacker corps. With the Tampa Bay continuing to struggle
with consistency on the offensive line, Cofield gives the Redskins
a serviceable weapon with which to attack their opponents’
greatest weakness.
Running Game Thoughts: According to Quarterbacks Coach Marcus
Arroyo, the Buccaneers don’t have a bell-cow running back
and there’s “no need” for one. He says they
have talented guys who are good in different types of situations,
and “that kind of flexibility” gives them excitement
about their backfield. From a team perspective, a committee approach
may give Tampa Bay the shot in the arm that they’ve needed,
as the fifth worst rushing attack and averaging just 90 yards
per game. In terms of fantasy football though, the potential for
four ball carriers to share the workload for the team that has
rushed the second fewest times this season, creates touchdown-dependent
disasters who should be avoided if at all possible. In addition
to gaining limited yardage, Tampa Bay has found difficulties in
finding the endzone as well. They’ve scored more touchdowns
that only five other teams, and haven’t done so in any of
the last four contests. While the Buccaneers are trying to put
a good spin on things, swapping out quarterbacks and installing
a running back committee, the hard truth is that between injuries
to their promising ball carriers and ineffectiveness from the
offensive line, the rushing attack just isn’t very good.
Maybe if one running back was fully healthy and received the lion’s
share of carries the story might be different, but the struggles
of the offensive line are still quite a hurdle to overcome.
The battle to escape the cellar of the NFC East resumes Sunday
now that the Redskins have taken their bye week, and the running
game matchup is one they’ll look to exploit. With Cofield
returning the defensive front will be in even better shape to
disrupt the line of scrimmage and continue to hold down a rushing
attack which has cracked triple digit yardage only once since
Week 2, and has had a running back score a touchdown only twice
this year. Defensively, the Redskins are about average for the
league against the run, ranking 14th or tied therefore in each
of yards per game, yards per attempt, and touchdowns allowed.
In losing two of their last three non-divisional games, Washington
has surrendered an average of 83 rushing yards per contest and
3.5 yards per attempt, which would have been top seven marks based
on season statistics. Ground game supremacy hasn’t given
the Redskins the edge they’ve needed to consistently pull
out a victory, but against struggling opponents it has been enough
to keep the game close and give the offense a chance to win the
game.
Projections:
Josh McCown: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bobby Rainey: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Doug Martin: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike Evans: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 50 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: In the two games he’s finished this
year, both losses and on the road, QB Robert Griffin III has thrown
for less than 270 yards and has a total of one touchdown and one
interception. This Sunday, Redskins fans will hope that he’s
able to play a complete home game for the first time since December
1, 2013. After watching the team sputter its way to a 2-4 record
under two different starting quarterbacks, Griffin (ankle) fought
his way back onto the field before the bye in hopes that he could
help them improve on their brief two game winning streak; he was
unsuccessful. Despite an extra week of rest and additional preparation,
the sixth ranked passing attack is poised for a letdown, as Griffin
has yet to throw for the team’s season average of 282 yards
per game. Four of the five above-average yardage games featured
Kirk Cousins as the primary signal caller, and the two most recent
wins were ultimately led by Colt McCoy. Though Griffin is the
most dynamic playmaker under center, he has yet to propel the
team to any meaningful accomplishment this season; perhaps the
third time will be the charm for Washington. As for his receivers,
since Week 3 the field has seemingly titled in the favor of WR
DeSean Jackson, with four games of 115 yards or more in the past
five contests and three touchdowns during that time. Only once
in those five games has WR Pierre Garcon caught for more yards
than Jackson, though he too has scored twice. The tight end position
has suffered the most of late, with neither Jordan Reed nor Niles
Paul finding the endzone since Week 2, and neither of them topping
60 yards during the span in which Jackson has begun to shine.
The homecoming for Griffin will be additionally generous considering
the defense he’ll be facing. Tampa Bay is one of the worst
five passing defenses in all but one of the major categories,
and in the lone remaining area they’re still noticeably
below average. Since their bye week the Buccaneers have averaged
253 passing yards against per game, allowing four touchdowns and
forcing two interceptions during that span of three contests;
each of these marks is a noticeable improvement on their season
averages, but none have been enough to help Tampa Bay find their
way back into the win column. Since signing a $100 million contract
extension, DT Gerald McCoy has found himself even more at the
focus of the offensive game plan, with teams frequently double
teaming the two-time Pro Bowler. This past week it was reported
that McCoy reached out to the man to whom he is most compared,
former Buccaneer and Hall of Fame DT Warren Sapp, for advice of
how to deal with double teams and the mentality it takes to be
the best defensive lineman on the team. Though it’s hard
to imagine that even a productive pep talk could change the Tampa
Bay defensive line too dramatically, but any additional pressure
brought by McCoy can only lead to good things for the rest of
his teammates.
Running Game Thoughts: The Redskins have been a streaky run team,
opening the season with two games of at least 130 rushing yards,
followed by four where they didn’t surpass 86 (including
a 32-yard effort), and most recently returning to form with three
straight contests of gaining at least 100 yards on the ground.
As the primary workhorse, RB Alfred Morris has seen his season
develop in much the same way, so his most recent games have been
some of his best; he’s found the endzone three times in
three games while averaging 83 yards from scrimmage. This uptick
has been much appreciated by his fantasy owners who have survived
a rough patch while Washington has playing struggling with the
decision of who to start at quarterback earlier this season. For
the year the Redskins have been relatively unimpressive in most
rushing areas, though they do rank in the top quarter for touchdowns
as one of only seven teams to reach double digits. Backup RB Roy
Helu continues to defy conventional wisdom, and is on pace for
almost 850 total yards despite being projected for just 105 touches.
With the bulk of the opportunities being given to Morris, no other
Washington running back is worthy of a fantasy start on a weekly
basis, and barring an injury even Helu as minimal value.
On paper Tampa Bay has been pretty bad against the run, giving
up 114 yards per game and eight rushing scores in nine contests.
The statistics are somewhat skewed however, as they’ve faced
more attempts than three quarters of the league, generally because
the Buccaneers have failed to be competitive in numerous games
this year and their opponent has run the clock down by running
the ball. In four of the six close games this season, including
their only win, Tampa Bay has held their opponent to fewer than
100 rushing yards, suggesting that the defense may be less responsible
for their 1-8 record than is the offense. Supporting this theory
is a top ten mark for yards allowed per rush, and the fact that
only two teams have more fumble recoveries on run plays than do
the Buccaneers. Since Washington rushes the ball less than the
league average and has recorded just one blowout victory this
season, gains on the ground may be held in check. Whatever the
game plan, Sunday should provide a reasonable test for each unit
in the ground game, as neither is expected to dominate the run.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 260 pass yds, 1 TD, 15 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 75 rush yds, 1 TD
Roy Helu: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 55 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Redskins 24, Buccaneers 13 ^ Top
49ers at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Since recording
the second best passing performance of his career in Week 6, QB
Colin Kaepernick has seen his scoring level off, his yardage slip
from week to week, and he’s failed to reach even 25 yards
rushing in any of the three subsequent contests. Although the
stat line is less than impressive, the results have actually been
beneficial for San Francisco; in the four games in which Kaepernick
has thrown for the fewest yards this season, they have earned
a victory. Their fifth win came in Week 6, his most impressive
game this year. The apparent key to success is asking less of
the quarterback, and instead relying on the running game, along
with defense and special teams, to lead the team in a winning
direction. Of course this sentiment doesn’t sit well with
his fantasy owners, and if the trend continues and the 49ers are
aware of it, the duel threat quarterback may have diminishing
value as the fantasy playoffs grow near. In every game this year
Kaepernick has thrown at least one touchdown pass, so as long
as that continues San Francisco pass catchers will maintain the
hope of finding the endzone. The top pass catchers this year are
also tied for the team lead with three touchdown receptions each,
but the decreasing production from Kaepernick has led to only
WR Anquan Boldin having consistent fantasy value and WR Michael
Crabtree maintaining his because of his big play abilities. Beyond
them, WR Stevie Johnson has seen his workload decrease dramatically
and TE Vernon Davis has never truly had a workload to speak of
this season. The former fantasy mainstay is on pace for 12 first
downs this season, after recording more touchdowns than that last
year.
Though every game they’ve lost this year has been by double
digits, the Giants pass defense has largely been one of the bright
spots for the team. They give up 260 passing yards per game, certainly
more than the average for the league, but New York is ranked second
for interceptions forced and is tied for the ninth fewest touchdowns
allowed. As far as the passing attack is concerned, the defense
has been able to absorb the gains of their opponents and either
come up with turnovers or find a way to limit their trips to the
endzone. On a per attempt basis only one team surrenders more
yards per pass than the Giants, so while opponents don’t
score through the air often they’ve been able to be incredibly
efficient in the middle parts of the field. On Sunday Kaepernick
should be able to use this to his advantage, allowing his receivers
to do most of the work when the field is in front of them, but
then relying on the rushing attack to make gains when it counts
the most. There should be little asked of the 49ers signal caller
this week, and that should bode well for San Francisco.
Running Game Thoughts: The ageless wonder of the west coast,
31 year old RB Frank Gore (hip) is still dominating the workload
of the 49ers backfield, but after being limited in practice earlier
this week there may be a movement inside the organization to start
involving rookie RB Carlos Hyde more in the offensive game plan.
That being said, over the last three games Hyde has carried the
ball a total of nine times, and Gore has more touches than that
in every game this season except for the defensive duel which
erupted in Week 3. The veteran has out-carried and outgained the
rookie in every game this season, and regardless of the bumps
and bruises he’s picked up along the way, come game day
Gore has always been ready to go and shoulder the responsibilities
of the backfield. On the season San Francisco is a top ten rushing
team, despite them being in the bottom ten for touchdowns scored.
The 49ers have been able to methodically move the ball down the
field on the ground, but have had to rely more on volume of attempts
than explosive plays to get it done; they’re much closer
to the middle of the pack than the top of the rankings for yards
per carry, though their mark of 4.2 is better than most. With
the lone exception coming early in the season, San Francisco runs
into trouble when their rushing attack fails to gain 85 yards,
as three of their four losses came in games where they didn’t
hit that threshold.
Keeping the 49ers below 140 yards would be a feat for New York,
let alone the 85-yard mark referenced earlier. During their four
game losing streak the Giants are averaging over 200 yards allowed
per contest and have given up seven rushing touchdowns during
that span. They have surrendered 100 yards to four different ball
carriers in those four games and have yielded nearly 5.8 yards
per carry. To be fair, two of the teams they’ve faced in
the last quartet of contest have been the top two rushing offenses
in the NFL, and the other two were both in the top 14, but even
with that in mind the Giants have been dreadful against the run
since early October and they’ve shown no signs of improvement
since the leaves started changing colors. Assuming San Francisco
has been paying attention, both to themselves and their Week 11
opponent, there is a strong argument to be made for throwing the
ball as little as possible, and instead allowing the ground attack
to wear down an already tattered Giants defense.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 195 pass yds, 2 TDs, 30 rush yds
Frank Gore: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Carlos Hyde: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 5 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The struggles of the offense, rightly or
wrongly, ultimately get blamed on the man under center. For New
York, QB Eli Manning has seen his two biggest offensive weapons
go down to injury, and while the top pass catcher has been lost
for the year the star of the backfield should be ready to play
after a four game absence. During that time the Giants have been
winless, but with the exception of one tipped deep ball interception
this past Sunday, Manning has been without serious error for each
of those games. The void created at the receiver position has
been filled admirably by rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr., and against
the most notorious shutdown corner in the league he still found
a way to bring in seven of his nine targets for 108 receiving
yards, and for good measure he also contributed another 11 yards
on a running play. His emergence however has led to a moderate
decline for WR Rueben Randle, and third WR Preston Parker is often
in the mix but inconsistent at best when it comes to results.
Where earlier in the year New York seemed to favor its tight ends,
Larry Donnell has too begun to be overshadowed by the rookie wide
receiver, and TE Brandon Fells is little more than an afterthought
despite previously recording touchdowns in three straight games.
While being unbalanced between run and pass has hurt the Giants
tremendously, it has made them incredibly easy to game plan against
for opposing defense. San Francisco, in the top five against the
pass giving up only 215 yards game, hardly needs any extra assistance
from the struggles of New York. The 49ers are the sixth best team
in forcing interceptions, so if Manning slips back into his early
season form then the secondary will certainly be ready to strike.
Though they are stingy with yardage and opportunistic with quarterback
mistakes, San Francisco has been surprisingly poor keeping opponents
out of the endzone, tied for 20th in scores allowed through the
air. One cause of this discrepancy has been their seeming inability
to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and losing LM Patrick
Willis (toe) for the season certainly won’t help their cause
any. The team ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in sacks
recorded, but with LB Aldon Smith (suspension) in line to make
his season debut it is conceivable that the 49ers see their pass
rushing fortunes turned around very soon.
Running Game Thoughts: The moment New York has been waiting a
month for has finally arrived; RB Rashad Jennings (knee) is expected
to play in Week 11 after missing the previous four matchups and
sitting out during the bye week. With Jennings on the sideline
the Giants have averaged a meager 83 rushing yards per game, but
with him on the field that figure jumps to 157, nearly double.
Though several factor have likely contributed to the rushing woes
the team has experienced without their starting ball carrier,
his return is undoubtedly a cause for optimism in New York, especially
since they haven’t won without him this season and the last
time he was on the field they were in the middle of a three game
winning streak. Despite being unavailable for a month Jennings
is still the team’s leading rusher by over 60 yards, and
his first downs nearly equal those which have been gained by other
Giants ball carriers. He is officially listed as Questionable,
but New York Head Coach Tom Coughlin said on Wednesday that he
believes Jennings is “good to go” for this week. It’s
worth double checking the injury report before the first round
of games kick off, and in the event he gets downgraded the backup
RB Andre Williams ay be worth a last minute switch into the starting
lineup.
Of all the areas where San Francisco is impressive against the
run, perhaps their strongest is that in which Jennings has been
the weakest, scoring rushing touchdowns. In five games this season
the star of the New York backfield has found the endzone just
twice, compared to four times by his backup, and in nine contests
the 49ers have surrendered just five scores in the ground game,
though none of them have occurred since their bye three weeks
ago. San Francisco allows only 91 rushing yards per game and a
respectable 3.9 per attempt. One of the greatest assets to the
defense is their own offense, whose ball control philosophy helps
keep the defense rested and limited the number of plays they have
to defend. The return of Jennings figures to revitalize the New
York rushing attack, but the 49ers might be able to -respond with
an emotional counterpunch of their own, even in the wake of Willis
being put on Injured Reserve, and that is Smith being available
for the first time all year. Controlling the line of scrimmage
and dominating the ground game will go a long way to determining
the outcome of this contest.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 25 rush yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 75 rec yds
Rueben Randle: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 20 rec yds
Prediction: 49ers 31, Giants 20 ^ Top
Falcons at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Earlier this
season, it was easy to call Matt Ryan a QB1, but things have changed
as the year progressed. Ryan has decent overall numbers, but he
has failed to throw multiple TD passes in four of his last five
games, and has amassed fewer than 230 passing yards in each of
his last three outings. Ryan still throws plenty to Julio Jones
and Roddy White, but neither has put together a full season. Jones
hasn’t scored since Week 3, and White has just one contest
with 75 or more receiving yards. Despite these uneven performances,
this week’s match-up with the Panthers means all three players
need to be in fantasy lineups.
The Carolina pass defense got lit up by Mark Sanchez last Monday
night, which only continued a season-long trend. They are 23rd
in the NFL against the pass, and only the Bears and Jets have
allowed more TD throws this season. The Panthers have yielded
the fourth-most FPTs/G in the league to opposing quarterbacks
and the seventh-most FPTs/G to wide receivers. And though Carolina
has held tight ends to just two TDs, only four teams have allowed
more receiving yards to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Through the Falcons first seven games,
Steven Jackson didn’t have a single contest with at least
15 rushing attempts. But that has changed in the last two games,
with Jackson receiving 16 and 18 carries, respectively. He’s
responded with 141 rushing yards and two scores in those games,
and playing a Carolina team that has been soft against the run
means Jackson is a solid RB2 this week.
The Panthers rank 23rd in the NFL in run defense, 29th in YPC
allowed, and is tied with a pair of teams – including their
opponent this week – for most rushing scores given up. Just
five teams in the league have surrendered more FPTs/G to opposing
running backs – including their opponent this week.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 265 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Steven Jackson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Julio Jones: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 35 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton’s
numbers last week in Philly weren’t terrible on the surface
– 302 yards, two TDs and three picks, but the reality is
a bit different. He was sacked nine times in the game, and both
of his TD throws were in the fourth quarter with his team trailing
by a huge margin. Both of his scoring passes went to Kelvin Benjamin,
who continues to be productive, and Greg Olsen broke a two-game
string of ineffectiveness to rack up over 100 receiving yards.
The trio should continue to be productive this week against an
Atlanta pass defense that has struggled.
No team in the NFL is giving up more yards per game through the
air than the Falcons, only the Raiders have fewer sacks, and just
two teams are allowing more yards per pass attempt. Atlanta has
surrendered the third-fewest TD throws for one reason only –
teams simply run it into the end zone against them. Yet the lack
of TD passes against them means the Falcons do limit fantasy scoring.
Sort of. They are in the middle of the pack when it comes to FPTs/G
allowed to quarterbacks and have given up the second-fewest FPTs/G
to tight ends, but are allowing the ninth-most FPTs/G to wide
receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: When both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan
Stewart are healthy, they split carries, which is what happened
last week when Williams had 13 carries for 31 yards and Stewart
received 11 carries for 36 yards and a score. Fantasy owners often
– and rightfully – ignore this duo, but Stewart should
be considered a flex play this week with a prime match-up versus
the Falcons.
Atlanta is 24th in the league against the run, but – as
mentioned above – tied with the Panthers and Giants for
most rushing TDs allowed. But the Falcons don’t just have
trouble stopping running backs on the ground, they can’t
stop them from catching passes either, and have given up more
receiving yards to running backs than any other team. Add it all
up, and you have a squad that has given up the most FPTs/G to
running backs in the NFL.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jonathan Stewart: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
DeAngelo Williams: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 30 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 24 ^ Top
Bengals at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: There are
few words to describe Andy Dalton’s performance last week
against the Browns, so decide for yourself after seeing the numbers:
10-of-33, 86 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 2.0 passer rating. Dalton has
nine picks and eight TDs this season, and is only in the top-25
of fantasy scorers among quarterbacks because he has scored twice
on the ground and once via reception. A.J. Green has missed three
games this year, but his recent return does not mean Dalton becomes
a fantasy option. Green remains a stalwart, and both he and Mohamed
Sanu should be in play this week against the Saints, who haven’t
been able to control opposing wide receivers this season.
New Orleans is 24th in the NFL in pass defense and 26th in yards
per pass attempt allowed, but are tied for sixth-fewest passing
scores given up. They’ve permitted just a pair of TD throws
over their last three games, none of which has gone to a TE. In
fact, the Saints haven’t given up a score to a TE since
Week 1 and are allowing the fewest FPTs/G in the league to players
at that position. But they are tied for 10th-most FPTs/G allowed
to quarterbacks and only four squads are giving up more FPTs/G
to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: It seems likely that Giovani Bernard will
miss this week’s game, which is bad for his owners, but
good for those that have Jeremy Hill on their squad. There’s
plenty to like about the rookie, who’s a solid receiver
with an impressive YPC average of 4.7. He should be starting for
fantasy owners this week against a New Orleans team that has surrendered
plenty of scores on the ground.
The Saints are 11th in the NFL against the run and 15th in YPC
allowed but are tied for 27th in rushing scores given up. Just
two running backs have managed to gain at least 70 yards on the
ground when facing New Orleans, but the team has given up the
seventh-most receiving yards in the league to running backs and
are allowing the 13th-most FPTs/G to players at the position.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Jeremy Hill: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
A.J. Green: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees
started the season slow – by his standards – failing
to throw for more than two TDs in his team’s first six games.
But he’s tossed three scores in two of his last three contests
while making something else perfectly clear – Brandin Cooks
is the team’s top wide receiver. Jimmy Graham will continue
to be the Saints’ number one pass-catcher, but Cooks has
clearly supplanted Marques Colston as the WR Brees will go to
most often. This week, however, Cooks shouldn’t be considered
much more than a WR3 against Cincinnati.
The Bengals rank 20th in the league in pass defense, but are better
than that number indicates. They’re tied with Detroit for
fewest passing scores surrendered, have ceded the fourth-lowest
completion percentage, are 5th in yards per pass attempt allowed,
and tied for 7th in interceptions. Their struggles this season
have come mostly against tight ends, as Cincinnati has given up
the seventh-most FPTs/G and most receiving yards in the league
to players at that position. But they’ve also allowed the
12th-fewest FPTs/G to quarterbacks and only the Lions are surrendering
fewer FPTs/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: With Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas still
hurting, Mark Ingram continues to be the main runner for New Orleans.
Actually, it’s more like the only runner, as he’s
had 24 or more carries in each of the team’s last three
games while churning out 100 or more yards in each of those contests.
It seems like a pretty good bet Ingram will continue to produce
this week against the Bengals.
Cincinnati may not be the worst run defense in the NFL, but they’re
in the conversation. The Bengals are 31st in the league against
the run, 29th in rushing scores surrendered, and 27th in YPC allowed.
Just four teams have allowed more FPTs/G than Cincy to running
backs, cementing Ingram as a fantasy starter this week.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 275 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Mark Ingram: 105 rush yds, 1 TD
Travaris Cadet: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Brandin Cooks: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Marques Colston: 50 rec yds
Kenny Stills: 30 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 85 rec yds, 2 TD
Prediction: Saints 31, Bengals 24 ^ Top
Patriots at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Through his
first four games, Tom Brady failed to throw for 250 yards once,
and after the Patriots got whacked by the Chiefs during a Week
4 Monday night contest, questions about the team’s –
and Brady’s – demise became rampant. Those questions
have been subsequently answered, as Brady has responded with 290+
yards in four of his past five games, and 3+ TDs in each of his
last four contests. Rob Gronkowski has 90+ yards in each of his
last four games, Julian Edelman continues to pick up plenty of
yards, and Brandon LaFell has become a fantasy factor. Edelman’s
lack of TDs relegates him to WR3 status, but LaFell is a solid
WR2 option this week against the Colts.
Indianapolis is 27th in the NFL in pass defense, 22nd in yards
per pass attempt allowed and tied New England at 18th in passing
scores yielded. The Colts were playing well against the pass until
a couple games ago, when Ben Roethlisberger sliced them up for
over 500 yards and 6 TDs. Whatever the reason, it’s allowed
for fantasy points to build against Indy, and they’ve now
given up the 11th-most FPTs/G to quarterbacks and the eighth-most
FPTs/G to tight ends, but are right in the middle of the league
in FPTs/G allowed to WR – though trending down.
Running Game Thoughts: When Stevan Ridley got injured, most fantasy
owners naturally figured that meant it was Shane Vereen’s
time to shine. And while he’s been effective for fantasy
owners, most of his damage has come via reception. Jonas Gray
has gotten into the act as well and been solid, but he’s
a risky play this week against Indianapolis as his role has yet
to really be defined.
The Colts have the league’s 9th-ranked run defense, but
they’re tied for 19th in rushing TDs permitted, and are
25th in YPC allowed. Indy has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing
yards in the league to running backs, but are 16th in the 32-team
NFL in FPTs/G allowed to running backs because they are tied for
seventh-most rushing scores given up to running backs and because
only one team has given up more receiving yards to backs.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 330 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Shane Vereen: 40 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Jonas Gray: 35 rush yds
Brandon LaFell: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 70 rec yds
Danny Amendola: 35 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: There have
been just two games all season in which Andrew Luck has thrown
for fewer than 350 yards, and three games in which he has less
than three TD passes. He leads everybody in fantasy scoring and
there doesn’t seem to be any slowing him down. Luck has
plenty of options to throw to, with T.Y. Hilton being at the top
of the list. He has TDs in three of his last four games, which
has vaulted him into the top-10 in fantasy scoring at WR. Reggie
Wayne has been solid as well, but is more in the WR3 category
at this point in his career. At TE, Dwayne Allen has a score in
all but two games this season, and has a good match-up this week
versus New England.
The Patriots own the league’s 14th-ranked pass defense,
and as mentioned above, are tied with their opponent this week,
the Colts, for 18th in throwing scores surrendered. New England
has had some difficulty stopping opposing tight ends, but has
limited fantasy scoring to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.
There is one aspect of this that can’t be ignored, however,
and that’s quality of opponent. In their nine games this
season, the Patriots have faced the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Matt
Cassel, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Kyle Orton and Geno Smith, none
of which are near the caliber of Luck.
Running Game Thoughts: The Colts split their backfield carries
between Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson, a scenario which
is usually a nightmare for fantasy owners. But Bradshaw has been
so good as a receiver, with nearly 300 yards and six TDs, that
it’s easy for fantasy owners to determine which back to
play. That’s especially the case this week against a Patriots
team that has had trouble against backs who can catch the ball
this season.
New England is tied for seventh-fewest rushing scores surrendered
this season, but they rank 22nd in the league in run defense and
are 24th in YPC allowed. Despite the low amount of rushing scores
the Patriots have allowed, they have still given up the fifth-most
FPTs/G to running backs. The reason for that is simple –
no team in the NFL has surrendered more receiving scores to backs
than New England.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 355 pass yds, 4 TD, 25 rush yds
Ahmad Bradshaw: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 65 rec yds
Hakeem Nicks: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Allen: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 38, Patriots 31 ^ Top
Steelers at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger
wasn’t playing poorly by any means through his first seven
games, with 10 TD throws, just three picks and a couple 300-yard
games. But nobody could have expected him to go off the way he
did in the next two games, with 12 TD passes and over 850 passing
yards. He cooled last week against the Jets, with only one score
and a pair of INTs despite 343 passing yards. Big Ben’s
leap into QB1 territory has coincided with the emergence of Martavis
Bryant, who has played four games but has six TD receptions. If
he’s available in your league – which seems unlikely
– grab him. He’s become a great complement to the
top fantasy scorer at wide receiver, Antonio Brown, who has had
just a single game with fewer than 84 receiving yards this year.
However, this week will represent a tough match-up for each of
the aforementioned, so the huge numbers we’ve seen recently
may not be in store for the Steelers as they face the Titans.
Tennessee is 11th in the NFL in pass defense, and tied for 9th
in passing TDs given up. They are in the middle of the league
in terms of FPTs/G allowed to tight ends, but have been much tougher
on the other positions. The Titans have surrendered the 12th-fewest
FPTs/G to wide receivers and sixth-fewest FPTs/G to quarterbacks.
They have allowed multiple passing scores in only two games this
year, are tied for fifth-fewest TD catches allowed to wide receivers,
and have been especially stingy of late, having allowed fewer
than 170 passing yards in three of their last four contests.
Running Game Thoughts: With only a single rushing score, it would
be easy to think that Le’Veon Bell is having a sub-par year.
But he’s actually fifth at his position in fantasy scoring
because not only is he third in the league in rushing, but also
second among running backs in receiving yards. Yet fantasy owners
would certainly like to see Bell get the ball in the end zone
more, and he has a great opportunity to do just that against Tennessee.
Just three teams in the league have been worse against the run
this season than the Titans, and only four squads have given up
more rushing scores. Tennessee has allowed a RB to gain 100+ rushing
yards in back-to-back games, and despite the fact the Titans have
allowed the fewest receiving yards in the league to running backs,
they have given up the seventh-most FPTs/G to players at that
position.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 275 pass yds, 2 TD
Le’Veon Bell: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Martavis Bryant: 60 rec yds
Markus Wheaton: 35 rec yds
Lance Moore: 20 rec yds
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: There is
just one player who wears a Titans uniform that fantasy owners
can go to on a regular basis – TE Delanie Walker. However,
he suffered a concussion last week and it is unknown if he’ll
be able to suit up against the Steelers. Minus Walker, the pickings
are slim in Tennessee. Zach Mettenberger is not a fantasy starter,
and their only WR who should register any interest is Kendall
Wright, but only as a WR3, and not this week against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are a middle-of-the-road team against the pass, ranking
15th in the league in pass defense and tied for 20th in passing
scores permitted. They’ve held half of the starting quarterbacks
they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards and are giving
up the 11th-fewest FPTs/G to players at that position. Pittsburgh
has also surrendered the 13th-fewest FPTs/G to wide receivers,
but has allowed the 11th-most FPTs/G in the league to opposing
tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Bishop Sankey has taken over as the team’s
primary ball carrier, but has done little of note with that opportunity.
He’s had 16 or more carries in three of his last four games
but failed to top 61 rushing yards and hasn’t found the
end zone. Sankey may become a decent fantasy option one day, but
he simply isn’t more than a low-end flex play against the
Steelers.
Pittsburgh may be 22nd in the league in YPC allowed, but they’re
12th in run defense and tied for 17th in rushing scores yielded.
The Steelers are a slightly better than average team in terms
of FPTs/G allowed to opposing running backs, which isn’t
bad enough for Sankey to be considered much of an option.
Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Bishop Sankey: 65 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 60 rec yds
Nate Washington: 45 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Chase Coffman: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 21, Titans 13 ^ Top
Seahawks @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Two of the
most careful quarterbacks in the league will be going head-to-head
in this one as Russell Wilson and the Seahawks head to Kansas
City to face off against Alex Smith and the Chiefs. Despite off-season
rumors that the coaching staff would allow him to let loose with
the offense this year, Wilson has not had many passing yards in
2014. In fact, he has failed to hit even 200 yards passing in
four of his past five games. He’s usually efficient with
the ball, which makes him a decent fantasy quarterback. However,
this past week, Wilson was atrocious through the air as Wilson
went just 10-of-17 for 172 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions
against the Giants. His 53.7 QB rating was one of the worst of
his careers and continues a string of less-than-stellar performances
since the team traded away their top target, Percy Harvin, a few
weeks back. Wilson did however, save his day from a fantasy standpoint
as he lit up the Giants to the tune of 107 yards and a touchdown
on the ground. The only player who has done much of anything as
a receiver since Harvin left has been Doug Baldwin, whose numbers
have dropped in each of the past four weeks.
The Chiefs have been excellent against the pass all season. While
they have allowed at least one touchdown pass in every game, they’ve
only allowed more than one in four games, three of which came
against Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. The only
time they’ve allowed multiple scores to an opposing quarterback
this season came back in Week 1 when they allowed Jake Locker
to throw for two touchdowns. The odds just aren’t stacked
in Wilson’s favor for a good game passing the ball in this
contest, but he’s always capable of making up for it with
a solid game on the ground.
Running Game Thoughts: The hottest running back in all of fantasy
football has to be Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch. He has over
300 total yards and a whopping six touchdowns over his past two
games, which now puts him back on pace to finish as one of the
top fantasy football running backs by the end of the season. It’s
true that he had been struggling a bit over his prior three contests,
having not scored a touchdown or rushed for over 65 yards, but
he quickly reminded fantasy owners why we can never count him
out as a player who can single-handedly win fantasy matchups.
In Week 11, Lynch will have one of the toughest matchups in all
of fantasy sports as he goes up a Kansas City Chiefs defense that
has somehow not allowed a single touchdown, rushing or receiving,
to an opposing back all season. That incredible statistic will
be tested as they try to stop a back who has already scored 12
touchdowns on the year. Something has to give in this matchup
and I believe that this will be the final week that Kansas City
has a “0” in the touchdowns-against column. While
they’ve been able to avoid giving up any touchdowns, the
Chiefs have conceded over 100 yards rushing in five of their nine
games so far this season, so it’s not as if teams haven’t
been able to run against them. Look for the Seahawks to test the
Chiefs on the ground and if they get near the end zone, Lynch
will certainly get an opportunity to score his 13th TD.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Much like his opponent on the other side
of the ball, Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith has made a career
of being a quiet, efficient, safe quarterback. But that hasn’t
made him much of a fantasy star. Smith currently sits as the 18th-highest
quarterback in the league and he has now failed to surpass 15
fantasy points (standard scoring) in seven of his nine games so
far this season. While he has only had two games where he’s
been below 10 points, the excitement of a QB who gets 10-15 points
per game just isn’t there. On the positive side, Smith hasn’t
thrown an interception since Week 5. Unfortunately, Smith’s
playing style has essentially meant complete fantasy irrelevance
for the entire group of receivers in Kansas City. He has just
11 passing touchdowns on the year and has somehow avoided throwing
a single one of them to a wide receiver. Of course, his check-downs
have been great for tight end Travis Kelce who currently leads
the team with four touchdowns. With fellow tight end Anthony Fasano
not expected to play this week due to an injury, look for Kelce
to get plenty of work, which should make him a solid fantasy option
at the tight end position this week.
To make things better, Kelce actually has a fantastic matchup
this week as he goes up against a Seattle Seahawks defense that
has conceded the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing
tight ends, giving up 10 touchdown receptions in their nine contests.
Smith and the rest of the passing game are essentially unplayable
against Seattle, but Kelce could be a big time sleeper in Week
11.
Running Game Thoughts: Since returning from an injury back in
Week 4, Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles has been the most
consistently productive running back in all of fantasy football.
He has touched the ball at least 16 times in every game since
that time. Although he hasn’t been as big of a part of the
passing game in 2014 as he was in 2013, he is still one of the
better PPR backs, having caught 20 passes including two touchdowns
on the year. Somehow he has not yet cracked 100 yards on the ground,
but he has rushed for a total of six touchdowns over his past
six games.
It’ll be tough to find better options than Charles even
though he is going up against an elite run defense, but this is
not a great matchup for the Chiefs running game. Seattle has allowed
only one team (Dallas) to rush for even 90 yards in a game. Not
only that, but their five total touchdowns to the running back
position nearly rival what Kansas City has been able to do against
opposing backs. Temper your expectations on a huge game from your
stud running back and don’t get too disheartened, because
Charles gets the Raiders in Week 12.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 20, Chiefs 17 ^ Top
Broncos @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Another week,
another monster game from the NFL’s leading MVP candidate,
Peyton Manning. At this point, it’s almost becoming comical
how easy Manning makes it look to throw for multiple touchdowns.
Going back to his incredible 2013 season, Manning has now thrown
for multiple scores in 25 of his past 26 games. This astonishing
level of consistency has made him the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback
and No. 1 overall player in fantasy football. It’s not even
worth discussing right now -- if you have Peyton, you put him
in your lineup -- every single week. Most of the other players
in the Broncos passing game are reaching that level as well. Both
Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders sit solidly in the top 10
at their position with Sanders having scored six touchdowns over
his past four games while Thomas is riding an incredible six-game
streak where he has gone over 100 yards in every contest. Tight
end Julius Thomas had gone through a two-week scoring drought
in Weeks 7 and 8, but has since made fantasy owners forget about
that momentary lapse in production with three scores over his
past two contests. The only perceived-stud in this offense who
isn’t producing right now is receiver Welker. He has now
failed to go over 50 yards and has scored just one total touchdown
over his past five games. Welker seems to have been replaced in
the Denver offense and should be sat down by fantasy owners at
the moment.
This week, Denver will head to St. Louis to go up against the
Rams and their struggling defense. The Rams have conceded the
eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and
that number will almost certainly go up as they face the most
highly-productive offense in the league. While the Rams have been
better against opposing QB’s as of late, having allowed
just two passing scores in their past three games combined, their
competition hasn’t been spectacular. Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick
and the combination of Carson Palmer/Drew Stanton simply don’t
compare to Manning. There’s nothing to be worried about
in this contest and your Broncos should be in your lineup in Week
11.
Running Game Thoughts: Since the groin injury to Montee Ball,
the Broncos have been leaning heavily on backup Ronnie Hillman.
Hillman, who had been disappointing over the first couple seasons
of his career, stepped up in a huge way and was producing like
a RB1 for fantasy purposes. That is, until this past week when
he suffered an injury of his own. This led the way for third string
back C.J. Anderson to step into the game. Anderson, like Hillman,
took advantage of his opportunity as he rushed for 90 yards on
13 carries while adding 73 yards and a touchdown as a receiver.
No one had him in their fantasy lineups a week ago, but with a
foot injury expected to keep Hillman out for at least the next
two weeks, this may now be Anderson’s job to lose. Unfortunately,
all of this just contributes to the confusion in the backfield
as Ball is finally expected to be back this week and could end
up getting his job back. Ball was a big time underachiever earlier
in the year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the
Broncos won’t return to him now that he is healthy.
St. Louis has been and up-and-down defense against running backs
this season. While they have given up a few big games to the likes
of the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Chiefs, the Rams have been able
to hold opposing teams’ running backs under 10 total fantasy
points (standard scoring) in five of their nine games this season.
Given the unpredictable nature of the Denver backfield, it’ll
be a crapshoot to see which one of these players ends up getting
the bulk of carries or if they end up splitting roughly 50/50,
but fantasy owners should pay close attention to reports out of
Friday’s practices for a better idea on which player is
most likely to be the feature back on Sunday.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 335 pass yds, 3 TD
Montee Ball: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
C.J. Anderson: 30 rush yds
Demaryius Thomas: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: There was a time when Austin Davis was putting
up decent enough fantasy numbers that we could have considered
having him in our lineups as a bye week replacement, but those
days seem like an eternity ago as he has now gone five straight
contests without cracking 250 yards passing and his 6-and-6 touchdown-to-interception
ratio has been less than stellar. Given the lack of success that
the Rams have had passing the ball, head coach Jeff Fisher announced
earlier this week that the team will go back to Shaun Hill, who
lost the job earlier this season when he was injured in Week 1.
This is an ugly, ugly situation that really doesn’t bring
much excitement from a fantasy standpoint on a week-to-week basis.
No receiver has stepped up since the season-ending injury to Brian
Quick and with a new quarterback behind center, there will certainly
be some growing pains.
The one saving grace in this matchup is that it is very likely
that Denver gets out to a multiple-score lead. If they do, this
could be one of those games where garbage time points become a
significant factor. Hill could and up passing the ball 40-plus
times and even though the Broncos have a solid secondary, that
type of volume is very difficult to shut down entirely. It’s
anyone’s guess as to who Hill’s primary target will
be in the receiving game, but it’s worth noting that the
Broncos have conceded at least two passing touchdowns in all but
two of their contests this season. If that trend continues, someone
will have to have a decent fantasy day. The most likely players
to score seem to be Kenny Britt, who is the team’s most
physically talented receiver, and Jared Cook who also scored in
Week 10. Still, this is an avoid-at-all-costs game for anyone
other than Hill in two-QB leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: The pitiful St. Louis running game continued
this past week as the team was blown out on the road by the NFC
West division-leading Arizona Cardinals. The duo of Tre Mason
and Benny Cunningham rushed for a total of just 60 yards on 18
attempts. What makes things even more frustrating is that although
Mason was clearly the back of choice as he took 14 of those 18
carries, it was Cunningham who got the nod at the goal line and
scored the team’s only rushing touchdown of the day. The
only good thing that has come out of this whole situation is that
Zac Stacy appears to be a forgotten name, which brings down the
committee from a three-headed grouping to just two. Still, given
that neither player has been exceptional in their stints, it’s
hard to trust either player even in good matchups, let alone awful
matchups like the one they have here in Week 11.
The Broncos currently sit as the best run defense in all of football.
In nine games, the Broncos have not yet allowed a single team
to surpass 100 yards on the ground against them. Not only that,
but they’ve been getting better as of late. Opposing teams
are averaging just 39 rushing yards per game against over their
past five contests and they have not allowed a single rushing
touchdown over that span. Mason could be a viable option down
the stretch in some easier matchups, but this is not the time
to trust the young St. Louis tailback.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Tre Mason: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 34, Rams 17 ^ Top
Raiders @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: There haven’t
been many bright spots on the Oakland Raiders roster during this
0-9 start, but one player who has to be giving some hope to fans
of the silver and black is rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Carr,
who is the only rookie QB who has started every game for his team
this season, is currently on pace for nearly 3,400 yards passing
and his 13-to-9 interception-to-touchdown ratio is surprisingly
good given his team’s horrible record. Carr threw the ball
47 times during the Raiders’ blowout loss to the Broncos
a week ago, but astonishingly only attempted one pass to receiver
Andre Holmes, whom he had targeted at least five times in his
previous five games in a row. Instead, it was veteran receiver
James Jones who led the team with eight catches, although those
catches somehow totaled just 20 yards. The team’s top fantasy
producer was tight end Mychal Rivera. Rivera caught six passes
for 64 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos and has now made
a total of 21 receptions over his past three games.
Carr and his receivers will have a good opportunity for some
fantasy production this week as they head to San Diego to battle
a Chargers defense they lit up for four passing touchdowns when
the teams met back in Week 6. The four touchdowns were a career-high
for Carr who also threw for 282 yards in that contest. The Chargers
secondary had trouble slowing down Holmes and Jones in that contest
as well. Jones caught five passes for 56 yards and a touchdown
while Holmes had his best game of the year, catching four passes
for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Look for Carr to pass quite
a bit in this game again and that could mean that the three top
targets in this passing game are viable bye week fill-ins at their
respective positions.
Running Game Thoughts: With just 34 total rushing yards over
his past two games combined, Oakland running back Darren McFadden
has truly fallen back to complete fantasy irrelevance. He joins
his fellow veteran backfield-mate, Maurice Jones-Drew, in that
sad department and it doesn’t look likely that it’s
going to be changing anytime soon. The Raiders defense has been
so horrendous that their running game just doesn’t have
the opportunity to get enough carries to be successful.
The one point of potential optimism in this week’s game
against the Chargers comes from the fact that McFadden actually
had his best rushing game of the season against this defense back
in Week 6. He got only 14 carries, but was able to take them for
80 yards. Without another back touching the ball on a consistent
basis, McFadden is the only relevant fantasy option but given
his recent lack of success, it’d be very tough to trust
him here. The Chargers are averaging just 86 yards rushing against
them, have conceded just five rushing touchdowns on the year and
they’re coming off of a bye week so they should be fresh
and ready to stop the Raiders.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Darren McFadden: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
James Jones: 60 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming off of one of the worst games of
his career, it’s easy to worry about Philip Rivers and the
San Diego Chargers’ offense. They’ve now lost three
straight games and their opportunity to make the playoffs seems
to be slipping away. With that said, their bye week could not
have come at a better time. Rivers will have had time to look
over the game film from the Chargers’ humiliating 37-0 loss
to the Dolphins back in Week 9 wherein he threw for just 138 yards,
no touchdowns and three interceptions. He’ll also have an
opportunity to go up against a defense that he torched for over
300 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 6. In fact, Rivers
has a long history of big games against the Raiders. In 17 meetings
against them over the course of his career, Rivers has thrown
for 4,029 yards and 26 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions.
After conceding five touchdown passes and 329 yards passing to
Peyton Manning and the Broncos a week ago, the Raiders do not
look well-equipped to improve upon their string of terrible performances.
Look for Rivers and the Chargers to have their way in this contest
with Malcom Floyd being a potential sleeper. Floyd caught five
passes for a season-high 103 yards and a touchdown the last time
these teams met.
Running Game Thoughts: An ugly string of injuries to starter
Ryan Mathews and change-of-pace back Danny Woodhead led to Branden
Oliver being a fantasy breakout performer earlier this season,
but following back-to-back bad performances, there’s little
question that the Chargers are excited to have Mathews back this
week. Oliver had rushed for a total of just 122 yards in his previous
three contests combined -- all Chargers losses -- and he will
now presumably take a complementary role in the offense while
Mathews returns as the feature back.
The Raiders have conceded the third-most fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs on the year and don’t seem well
equipped to slow down Mathews. The last time he played against
the Raiders was all the way back in late-December 2013, but he
torched them for 119 yards and a touchdown and one could make
a case that the Oakland defense is actually worse now than it
was then. Presuming he is healthy, Mathews should be started with
confidence in all formats in what could be his best fantasy matchup
of the season.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 250 pass yds, 3 TD
Ryan Mathews: 100 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Malcom Floyd: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Keenan Allen: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 40 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chargers 31, Raiders 20 ^ Top
Lions @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
been an injury-filled season for the offense of the NFC North-leading
Detroit Lions. Skill position players have been dropping left
and right, but none has been more detrimental to the offensive
production than the top receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson.
Johnson struggled to play limited snaps in Weeks 4 and 5, missed
Weeks 6 through 8 and finally made his triumphant return in Week
10. The Lions won a close game over the Dolphins, largely because
of a monster day from Johnson who reminded us all why he has been
considered the top pass-catcher in all of football for the past
few seasons. Johnson caught seven passes for 113 yards and a touchdown
despite being covered for much of the day by Brent Grimes, one
of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL. While many assumed
that Johnson’s return would lead to less production from
Golden Tate, that was not the case at least for one week. Tate
caught a season-high 11 passes for 109 yards, his third straight
100-yard game and fifth in his past six contests. Tate’s
909 yards place him firmly in the top 5 at his position and Matt
Stafford now appears to have two potential top 10 receivers at
his disposal for the remainder of the season. Stafford, the No.
15 quarterback in standard scoring leagues, has been disappointing
this season but has now thrown for two touchdowns in each of his
past three games and should be a prime candidate to finish the
season out strong.
He’ll have a tough matchup this week, however, as he and
the Lions head to Arizona to face the NFC West-leading Cardinals.
Arizona currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions forced on
the season and they have allowed fewer than eight fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks in three of their past four contests.
Still, Stafford’s upside given the tremendous duo of receivers
he has, makes him tough to bench.
Running Game Thoughts: Coming into the season, the Detroit running
game was viewed by many to be one of the few dual-headed backfields
that could produce multiple legitimate every week fantasy starters
with the likes of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. However, given
the numerous injuries sustained by each tailback, neither player
has been particularly reliable. In fact, over the past few weeks,
third string running back Theo Riddick has started to develop
a role in the offense, primarily competing with Bush as the pass-catching
option out of the backfield. Although he has only nine total carries
in his past four games, Riddick has added 15 receptions for 154
yards and three touchdowns during that span. With Bush suffering
from yet another sprained right ankle, look for Bell to be the
team’s primary ball-carrier this week with Riddick getting
some snaps as well.
Neither player is a particularly appealing matchup against the
Cardinals, however, who have conceded the second-fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing running backs this season. To make
matters worse, they have not yet allowed a team to rush for over
100 yards in a single game. That includes contests against Alfred
Morris, LeSean McCoy and they are the only team who has held DeMarco
Murray under the century mark.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Joique Bell: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Theo Riddick: 10 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 10 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: After leading the Arizona Cardinals to an
unexpected two-game lead in the NFC West, veteran Arizona Cardinals
quarterback Carson Palmer will now have to watch from the sidelines
for the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL for the
second time in his career. Palmer had been red hot, throwing multiple
touchdowns in all six of his starts prior to being injured in
Week 10’s game against the Rams. Backup Drew Stanton, who
played in three games earlier this season, will have his second
opportunity to lead the team. Although this is certainly a step
down from Palmer, Stanton has actually played well in the little
playing time he has had and has not yet thrown an interception
this season. The most interesting aspect of Stanton’s tenure
at quarterback might just be which receiver he feels most comfortable
with. Larry Fitzgerald has been heating up as of late, averaging
92 yards per game over his past five contests, but the team’s
top target from 2013, Michael Floyd, has almost completely fallen
off the fantasy radar. During that same span, Floyd has averaged
just 28 yards per game. The one positive for Floyd, however, is
that while he and Palmer seemed to be out of sync, Floyd had a
big game with Stanton behind center, in Week 2 when he caught
five passes for 114 yards against the 49ers.
This is not the time to take a chance on Stanton, however, as
this could be the toughest matchup he faces all season. The Lions
have allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks of any
team in the league and have allowed a league-low 10 passing touchdowns
on the year. Fitzgerald is likely a low-end WR2 this week until
we see how he does with Stanton while Floyd and John Brown should
probably remain on fantasy benches for the time being.
Running Game Thoughts: The Arizona Cardinals have long been a
pass-happy offense with practically no running game to speak of,
but things are beginning to change in 2014. Andre Ellington has
taken one of the heaviest workloads in all of football and with
Carson Palmer out for the remainder of the season, there is a
realistic chance that he could see the ball even more in the final
six games of the season. Ellington is currently on pace for an
unbelievable 363 touches and has fully established himself as
a top-10 fantasy running back now that he is also getting the
lion’s share of the goal line carries. Ellington has been
limited in practice this week, but that is nothing new and certainly
nothing to worry about as he has missed practice days intermittently
throughout the season.
He won’t have an easy day, however, as the Lions have been
excellent against opposing running backs this season. Other than
a surprisingly ugly day against the Jets’ backs in Week
4 when they allowed 128 rushing yards, the Lions have not allowed
a single other team to rush for more than 76 yards against them
this season. Not only that, but they’ve only allowed one
rushing touchdown over their past five games combined. Ellington
is locked in as a must-start for most teams, but this is a very
tough matchup and could be one of his lowest-scoring games of
the season.
Projections:
Drew Stanton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Andre Ellington: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds
John Brown: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 20, Cardinals 17 ^ Top
Texans @ Browns
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Amish
Rifle will head to the bench to make way for Ryan the Razorback.
Ryan Fitzpatrick did about all you could expect from a journeyman
quarterback, but the Texans’ passing game could use a shot
in the arm and with a Week 10 bye, it was a good opportunity for
Head Coach Bill O’Brien to turn the reins over to Ryan Mallet.
Mallet is big and strong in the pocket and has a rifle arm, but
his lack of mobility and poor accuracy could be his downfall.
Per O’Brien, Mallet has a good command of the offense and
earned a chance. This could be an audition to see if Mallet should
be offered a contract in the offseason to serve as the team’s
quarterback of the future. Mallet’s rumored off the field
issues caused him to tumble down to Round 3 on draft day, but
at certain points during the pre-draft process Mallet was considered
a potential early first-round pick. Andre Johnson supposedly loves
the young former Arkansas star, and perhaps this could be the
impetus that sees Johnson turn around a disappointing season.
It’s been second-year wideout, DeAndre Hopkins that leads
the team in receiving yards (684) and receiving touchdowns (4),
despite catching six less balls than the veteran Johnson. Look
for the Texans to challenge defenses down the field more, as Fitzpatrick’s
weak arm didn’t allow the offense to open up much. However,
that could lead to a lot more sacks for the Texans with a statue
like Mallet back there.
The Browns should present a decent matchup for Mallet as he makes
his first NFL start, as they feature only an average pass rush
and are allowing 232.2 passing yards per game. However, the Browns’
defense is turning things around lately and the team is coming
off a game where they helped make Andy Dalton look like the worst
starting quarterback in the league – although Dalton didn’t
need much help.
Running Game Thoughts: The early reports of Arian Foster’s
demise were greatly exaggerated. Left for dead by the fantasy
football community, Foster has been a top 5 running back this
season and has carried the Houston offense on his broad shoulders.
Foster is averaging 102.8 yards per game on the ground and has
scored 7 rushing touchdowns. He also has 26 receptions for 229
yards and another 3 receiving touchdowns. Foster suffered a groin
injury in his game before the bye, and is questionable to play
this week.
If Foster is to miss time, his backup sixth-round rookie Alfred
Blue will get to square off against the Browns’ 28th-ranked
run defense. The Browns’ run defense has been dreadful despite
a good showing last Thursday Night in a game where Andy Dalton
killed any chance of the Bengals moving the ball on the ground.
This is a good matchup for either Texan running back so keep an
eye on the injury updates.
Projections:
Ryan Mallett: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
Arian Foster: 125 rush yds, 2 TDs, 30 rec yds
Alfred Blue: 35 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre Hopkins: 60 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer
played the role of a game manager on the road in Cincinnati before
a national television audience. That’s all that was needed
with his running game dominating and Andy Dalton self-destructing.
Until Josh Gordon’s suspension ends, it’s not likely
that Hoyer will be lighting up the scoreboard, but he is already
averaging a more than respectable 8.0 yards per attempt this season,
despite only completing 58% of his passes. If the Browns keep
winning, Hoyer should not be in any danger of losing his starting
job to heralded rookie Johnny Manziel, and at this point he may
earn himself a decent contract this offseason to remain the starter
next season as well. Heck, the fact that he has led the Browns
to a 6-3 record despite Gordon’s suspension and tight end
Jordan Cameron missing virtually the whole season with various
injuries may earn the guy a statue in downtown Cleveland before
the season is over. Cameron still isn’t practicing and wide
receiver Andrew Hawkins is now also banged up leaving only veteran
Miles Austin, the diminutive Travis Benjamin, undrafted rookie
Taylor Gabriel and journeymen type tight ends Gary Barnidge and
Jim Dray running patterns for Hoyer on Sunday.
The Texans’ pass defense has not been very good this season,
allowing 273.8 yards per game and 18 passing touchdown passes.
Getting No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney back healthy to add
to the pass rush should help improve those numbers a bit, but
right now this is a pass defense that can be exploited. The question
is, do the Browns have the horses to do it?
Running Game Thoughts: Terrance West led a three man running-back-by-committee
last week for Cleveland, but it wasn’t as bad as it sounds
as West saw 26 carries and all three running backs found the end-zone
in Cincinnati. Veteran Ben Tate will face his old team, so he
may get a bit of deference from his new coaching staff, but the
team has promised a “hot hand” approach making it
a potential land mine for fantasy owners. Ben Tate complained
a bit this week about his reduced role. While the “squeaky
wheel” often gets the grease, Head Coach Mike Pettine wasn’t
all that pleased by the veteran’s whining. Rookie Isaiah
Crowell ran extremely hard last week, despite being the third
back in the rotation and it is easy to see a scenario where he
has the “hot hand”. However it is expected that West
will once again get the first shot at being the “hot hand”,
and he’s been playing well in recent weeks. With the offensive
line rounding back into shape after struggling with the loss of
center Alex Smith and the defense stepping up recently, this should
be a run centric offense going forward.
The Texans’ run defense has been a bit stingy however, allowing
only 117.3 yards per game and 5 rushing scores on the season.
The Texans are strong up the middle with lineacker Brian Cushing
and safety D.J. Swearinger, which could cause problems for the
Browns’ rushing attack.
Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 225 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Terrance West: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Miles Austin: 45 rec yds
Taylor Gabriel: 60 rec yds
Gary Barnidge: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Texans 24, Browns 20 ^ Top
Vikings @ Bears
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater,
like most rookie starting quarterbacks, has struggled with his
consistency. He has yet to put up huge numbers in an NFL game,
but he has looked composed in the pocket and has been fairly accurate,
completing 60.4% of his passes. Bridgewater doesn’t look
to run, but he has shown to be an above average scrambler when
he does. At 6’2” and only 210 pounds he’s more
RGIII than Cam Newton however and can’t afford to take too
many open field hits. Bridgewater also doesn’t have the
strongest arm and his passes at times seem to float ala Chad Pennington,
but like Pennington he’s also a smart accurate passer that
keeps his team in the game. Tight End Kyle Rudolph is close to
returning and will give Bridgewater a nice security blanket that
creates red zone mismatches. Finding a connection with the athletic
Cordarrelle Patterson would go a long way towards helping to pump
up Bridgewater’s numbers. Last game Bridgewater overthrew
a wide-open Patterson who pulled up and brought his hands to his
head as he perhaps lost the ball in the sun. Once the two young
players develop some chemistry, it could be a fun thing to watch
on Sundays.
Bridgewater get a plush assignment this week facing a Chicago
team coming off an utterly embarrassing performance on Sunday
Night against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Rodgers threw six
first half touchdown passes before the team took its foot off
the gas in the second half. The Bears allowing 268.6 yards per
game and have yielded and incredible 23 touchdowns through the
air in nine games. Their secondary blew assignments last week
and seemed disinterested in tackling Jordy Nelson and Eddie Lacy
on long catch and runs. Things better change quickly or the coaching
staff could find its way out the door after only two seasons.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson isn’t likely to be
reinstated in time to suit up for this week’s game after
pleading to a lesser charge stemming from an incident where he
allegedly disciplined his child in a harsh manner. That leaves
the running game to raw but dynamic rookie Jerick McKinnon the
lumbering veteran Matt Asiata. The combination of McKinnon and
Asiata, while a pale comparison to Peterson, has been an effective
pairing. Asiata’s superior blocking and pass catching skills
and strong goaline running have kept him on the field despite
McKinnon’s breakout. McKinnon is solidly built at 5’9”
and 208 pounds, and while he has excellent speed and quickness,
he’s also able to bounce off of tacklers and gain yards
after contact at a rate as good as any back in the league. Until
Peterson does indeed return, both backs make decent starting options
against a beleaguered Bears’ defense in what could be a
high scoring game.
The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 112.6
yards per game and 5 rushing touchdowns on the season, but they
did give up huge passing game numbers to running back Eddie Lacy
last week.
Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 95 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 45 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD, 35 rush yds
Jarius Wright: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Kyle Rudolph: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler took the brunt of the fans’
and media’s wrath after last week’s embarrassing loss
to a hated division rival, but Cutler wasn’t the one covering
wide receivers for the Bears – of course neither were the
Bears’ defensive backs. Cutler was, as usual, careless with
the football, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble.
Cutler has thrown for 10 interceptions and has fumbled the ball
away an additional five times this season. While he couldn’t
possibly be benched for backup Jimmy Clausen, something needs
to change. Brandon Marshall looked to suffer a serious ankle sprain
late in the game last week, but the reports are promising that
he should be able to suit up on Sunday. Marshall who was very
flaky in his early career, has stepped up and has become a respected
team leader. He has been very outspoken about the team’s
poor play this season and he should be focused in his efforts
to turn things back around. Tight End Martellus Bennett struggled
through a rib injury last week and was not effective. It remains
to be seen if he’ll be healthier this week, and the team
has signed a tight end from their practice squad as a precaution.
Offensive guru Marc Trestman’s system was heavily praised
last season, and while the team has moved the ball through the
air most weeks, Trestman needs to do something to get some consistency
going with this offense.
It could get worse this week for Cutler, as he goes against the
league’s fourth-ranked pass defense. The Vikings allow 213
passing yards per game but have yielded 14 touchdown passes.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bears don’t run the ball nearly
as much as they should. Marc Trestman criticized quarterback Jay
Cutler last week for checking out of called Matt Forte runs, so
the team should make more of an effort to run the ball and take
pressure off of their turnover prone quarterback. Forte has always
been a big part of the passing game and already has 61 receptions
on the season. Rookie Ka’Deem Carey generally doesn’t
see very many chances with the football, but if the Bears do look
to establish the run against a poor run defense perhaps he does
get worked in more this week.
The Vikings are allowing a below league average 112.8 rushing
yards per game and 8 rushing touchdowns. As stated earlier Matt
Forte should have the opportunity to be able to run all over the
Vikings as the Bears will look to take some pressure off of the
struggling Cutler.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Ka’Deem Carey: 25 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 15 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 24 ^ Top
Eagles @ Packers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Much to the
chagrin of Jets’ fans everywhere, Mark Sanchez looked every
bit “the Sanchize” on Monday Night Football making
his starting debut for the Eagles in place of the injured Nick
Foles. Sanchez moved in the pocket well, found his open man and
delivered a sharply thrown and accurate ball. He also did not
turn the ball over. Sanchez, who is much more mobile than Foles,
looks like he was born to play in a Chip Kelly offense. As was
his penchant with the Jets, Sanchez thrived throwing the ball
down the middle of the field and struggled more on his throws
to the outside. Benefitting from that was rookie wide receiver
Jordan Matthews, who lined up mostly in the slot, and veteran
tight end Brent Celek, who’s 116 receiving yards surpassed
his season total of 90 yards. Matthews, who also benefitted from
his second team practice reps with Sanchez, caught 7 balls for
138 yards and 2 touchdowns. Absent from the offense was Jeremy
Maclin, who did manage a touchdown from Sanchez in his relief
appearance the week before, and Zach Ertz. The pair combined for
4 receptions and 55 yards. Maclin who is in the middle of a career-year,
shouldn’t have too many quiet games as he was also able
to grab a 52-yard pass from Sanchez in addition to his touchdown
in Week 10.
The Green Bay pass defense has been top notch all season and will
present a challenge to Sanchez playing in front of the Lambeau
faithful. Green Bay is allowing 229.1 passing yards per game with
13 passing touchdowns allowed and 12 interceptions on the season.
In a game where the Eagles may need to keep pace with the surging
Packer offense, the Pack will be counting on the Sanchez that
Jet fans soured on to rear its ugly head and turn the ball over.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy has followed up his career
year, with a career worst year. Last week he managed only 19 yards
on 12 carries, but did at least find the end zone. McCoy doesn’t
seem to have the same burst and moves he displayed last season
and is running more in a straight line and not finding the corner
like he has been able to in the past. Perhaps his preseason foot
injury has been affecting him all season, but that has not been
reported. Meanwhile 31 year-old Darren Sproles has consistently
outplayed him and could cut into McCoy’s snaps if that keeps
up. The Eagles o-line struggled with injuries during the first
half of the season but is slowly returning to health. Hopefully
McCoy can find his way back as well.
McCoy will be gifted the leagues 30th-ranked run defense as an
opponent this week. If he struggles against Green Bay, all hope
may be lost.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs, 2 INT, 25 rush yds
LeSean McCoy: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 35 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 30 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 60 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week I said that “Aaron Rodgers
is having an MVP caliber season” and he then went out on
Sunday Night and made a huge statement with 6 touchdowns in the
first half against the division rival Chicago Bears. Rodgers was
mercifully pulled from the game in the third quarter or the damage
could have been far worse. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were
left wide open and proceeded to run circles against the hapless
Bears’ secondary for much of the night and Eddie Lacy rumbled
56 yards after a screen pass to the end-zone while a disinterested
Bears defense failed to tackle him. The Packers attacked the Bears
with two tight end sets for most of the game, leaving surging
rookie Davante Adams out of the fun, as both Andrew Quarless and
Brandon Bostick were on the receiving end of Rogers’ touchdown
strikes.
It would be hard to imagine the Packer passing game being slowed
down at home against an Eagles defense that is allowing 251.7
passing yards per game and has given up 19 passing touchdowns
in nine games. The unit did perform well against Carolina however,
until Kelvin Benjamin scored a couple of garbage time touchdowns.
Rodgers and the Packer wide receivers are a step up in class however.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy did most of his damage on a
screen pass that he took to the house in the second quarter of
last week’s shellacking of the Bears. On the ground he totaled
only 50 yards on 14 carries, but in a game where the team’s
passing game was all that was needed it was hard for him to establish
much of a rhythm. Lacy appears more sluggish this season, after
apparently adding some weight, but runs hard and has quick feet
and his slow start to the season is just a fading memory. Surprisingly,
it’s been his usage in the passing game that has salvaged
his fantasy value in recent weeks. Veteran James Starks is a capable
backup that would be productive if needed in an extended role,
but he has been taking a backseat to Lacy now the former Alabama
back has found his groove again.
The Eagles have given up yardage to opposing running backs but
have managed to keep them out of the end-zone. The Eagles have
only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 345 pass yds, 3 TDs, 25 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
James Starks: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 60 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Packers 37, Eagles 34 ^ Top
|