Seahawks at Broncos - (Anderson)

Passing Game Thoughts: While the Denver pass defense versus the Seattle pass defense may be the most exciting matchup in this game, the Seahawks passing attack versus the Broncos defense may be the biggest factor in deciding who wins. With the Broncos offense likely to get into scoring range a decent amount of times and their defense concentrating on stopping the Seattle rushing attack, the pressure of moving the ball and creating points may well fall to the arm of Russell Wilson and the hands of his receivers. The Seattle passing attack was one of the biggest rush-happy offenses in the league, so their passing attack was often an aforethought. In the regular season, only six teams threw for less yards than the Seahawks, and only one team threw fewer times than Seattle. Despite these below-average numbers, the Seahawks were one of the most efficient passing attacks in the NFL. Their 63.6 completion percentage was ninth in the league, their 8.4 yards per pass attempt was second, their 102.4 quarterback rating was fifth, and their 27:9 TD:INT ratio was one of the best as well. With the Seattle defense creating good situations for the offense and the run game being mostly dominant, it allowed Wilson and company to be very effective when they did choose to pass, even though it happened less than with most other teams in the league. What is even more impressive is that this was all done without their most talented receiver, Percy Harvin, who was injured almost the whole year but is now expected to play a big role in this game.

On the flip side, the Denver pass defense was reasonably efficient (sixth lowest completion percentage allowed, 7.1 pass yards per attempt allowed), but gave up a ton of yards (sixth most in NFL) and a healthy amount of touchdowns (29). Of course a good reason why they gave up so many yards was because opposing offenses were throwing so much in order to try and catch up to Denver’s high-octane offense, so a lot of those yards came in garbage time when Denver was basically playing prevent defense. Champ Bailey being as healthy as he has been all year (he played 56 of 59 snaps last game) should make for a interesting matchup with a now healthy Harvin. I look for Wilson and company to be more aggressive than usual and perhaps throw more than normal, as the Denver defense will be honed in on stopping the run and, with a full array of healthy receivers, Wilson will be trying to force Denver to respect the pass in order to open things up for Lynch on the ground. While I think the Denver pass defense is better than they appear on paper, Wilson is becoming a sound, precise, and efficient quarterback, and I believe he is good enough to expose the weaknesses in the Denver secondary. With Harvin demanding defensive attention in the slot, I see a healthy amount of deep bombs from Wilson’s arm in an effort to clear things up near the line. The best chance the Seahawks have to win this game is if Wilson and this passing attack perform effectively, and I believe they will be up to the challenge. I look for Wilson to have an efficient day and Harvin to bust out in a relatively big way. While the Denver defense is certainly good enough to slow this offense down, we will witness one of the better overall days the Seattle passing attack has had all year.

Running Game Thoughts: This specific phase of the game should be a major key to the outcome. Marshawn Lynch had another standout year, finishing sixth in the league in rushing yards and second in attempts. As one of the heaviest run-oriented teams in the league, the Seahawks rely on a punishing ground game to keep their elite defense fresh. Seattle knows they need to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands as much as possible, and that means controlling the clock. Their run game could prove even more important than usual if the conditions in New York are bad, as below freezing temperatures and blustery winds are possible come game time. While the Seahawks have some talent in the passing game, especially with Percy Harvin expected to play, their passing attack is inconsistent and not dynamic enough to play catch-up, so the weight of this game will fall heavily on Lynch’s shoulders.

For the Broncos, their run defense was their strength this year, as they finished seventh in the league (tied with Seattle, ironically) in rush yards allowed. While their run defense was solid but not overwhelmingly dominant, one stat does stand out to me. The longest run the Broncos gave up all year was just 35 yards, second lowest in the league behind two teams that had 34. What this tells me is that while they may be pounded here and there for 4 or 5 yards at a time, they tackle well and are dedicated to not giving up the big play on the ground. This is actually an advantage for the Broncos because Lynch is not the game-breaking playmaker who frequently runs for more than a 4 or 5 yards at a time (just two 40-plus yards runs all year). While Lynch can certainly gain yards after contact and wear out a defense, it is likely the Broncos will allow a few yards on first and second down in order to force Wilson to throw it on third down and get the ball back to their defense. Look, the Broncos are not stupid, they know Seattle intends to control the clock and wear down their defense in order to slow the game down, so it is likely the Broncos go aggressive from the beginning in order to stop the run and disrupt the flow of the game. While Denver’s pass defense has not been great all year, they do have fairly solid corners that should be able to matchup well against a barely above-average Seahawk receiving corps. In this phase of the game I’m expecting a heavy dose (25+ touches) from Lynch, but other than maybe a couple of 8-to-10-yard runs, I see an aggressive Denver front bottling him up for most of the game in order to take away Seattle’s best weapon and disrupt their game plan.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 45 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 45 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds
Zach Miller: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: This is it, the dream matchup: the best passing offense against the best pass defense. While the Super Bowl is exciting in so many ways, this specific matchup may be one of the best we have ever seen on such a grand stage, and it will obviously go a long way in determining who wins this game. The Broncos with Peyton Manning had perhaps the greatest year in NFL history this season. They led the league in passing yards (by more than 500 yards), were third in yards per attempt, third in completion percentage, first in passing touchdowns (by 16!), and first in quarterback rating. With all those pass attempts Manning was still only picked off 10 times (third fewest in NFL), and sacked just 20 (fewest in NFL). All in all it was a record-setting year for Manning and little went wrong for this unit, which had four legitimate weapons (in fantasy and otherwise) in Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas.

While the above are obviously overwhelming numbers, the Seahawks defense was nearly as impressive. On the year they gave up the fewest passing yards (by more than 300 yards), had the lowest yards per pass attempt allowed, the 10th lowest completion percentage allowed, the second fewest touchdown passes allowed, the most interceptions (by five), the eighth most sacks, and the lowest quarterback rating allowed (by 11!). With three All-Pros in the secondary alone, the Seahawks were nearly untouchable through the air and were both consistent and explosive in their playmaking ability. A lot can be said of Peyton Manning's work ethic and preparation, but the Seahawks do not get by on athletic ability alone, as they are among the best coached and prepared units in the league. So with numbers that seem to nearly cancel each other out, who gets the edge in this matchup? To me there is no overwhelming favorite, but I am giving the nod to Peyton and company here for a few reasons. The first may seem small, but I believe it goes a long way in a game of this magnitude: experience. The Broncos have three players on offense plus a head coach who have been to at least one Super Bowl while the Seattle defense has zero. While players at this level are focused and professional in almost all cases, it is impossible to expect these guys not to be human and be aware of the scope and exposure and excitement of this event. I expect the leader of this offense (Peyton) to keep his guys focused and calm and prepared, and while it may not be a thing you can measure, every tiny bit helps in a winner-take-all game like this. As far as the actual game planning goes, I like what Denver brings in the way of personnel, and more specifically depth, over what Seattle throws out there. While most teams in the NFL have a go-to receiver, or even two if they are lucky, Denver has four guys that can make huge plays at any given moment, plus a running back (Moreno) who caught 60 balls for more than 9 yards per catch. While Peyton is good enough to attack any cornerback in the league, he simply does not have to force the ball against guys like cornerback Richard Sherman; rather, he can check to his second or third option and find the mismatch. While the Seahawks are more than just a bunch of talented players (they have a great scheme overall and play well together), it is nearly impossible to cover four or five guys consistently, especially when the guy throwing the ball has taken just 18 sacks all year and gets the ball out as quick as anyone in the league. Now, I expect the Seahawks to go all out to pressure Manning, and while they may bring him down a couple of times, Peyton is a master at adjustments. And with receivers who can get open at all levels of the defense, I expect the Seahawks will need to back off at some point, and that is when Peyton and company really do their damage. I do not expect the Broncos to go out there and dominate a defense this good, and Seattle will win a good amount of individual battles and make a handful of big plays, but this is a long game. and against a historically great passing attack of this nature it is not likely that Seattle can sustain a dominating defense long enough to keep the Broncos off the scoreboard. Enjoy watching this specific matchup, it may be an all-time classic.

Running Game Thoughts: Of the four phases of this game, the Broncos run game probably gets the least attention, though it could prove to be the deciding factor in who takes control of this game. During the regular season the Denver run game was good, not great, but productive and relatively consistent. Knowshon Moreno had a rebirth of sorts and rushed for more than 1,000 yards with 10 rushing touchdowns, much to the delight of his fantasy owners. Moreno and his backup Montee Ball are both talented runners in their own right, but a great deal of their success was because of the attention opposing defenses have to pay to Peyton Manning and his corps of talented receivers. Most defenses in the league must spend most of their defensive efforts trying to put pressure on Manning, double-cover guys like Demaryius Thomas, play nickel and dime packages, and more or less sell out to try stopping the pass. Because of this, Moreno and his backfield mates have found big holes in opposing defenses and have been able to break off some nice runs, not to mention rack up garbage-time yards when the Broncos have been up by multiple scores early in the fourth quarter. With so much talent in the passing game, most opposing defenses have a hard enough time slowing the running backs down, not to mention even worry much about the run game.

Most defenses are not the Seattle Seahawks, however. The Seahawks, without much argument, have the best secondary in football, with two first team All-Pros (Sherman and Thomas) and one second team All-Pro (Chancellor). For all the media attention that Sherman gets for his mouth, his play backs it up and he is one of a few defensive backs in the league who prepares for games as relentlessly and tirelessly as Peyton Manning does. While the Seahawks are not deep in the defensive backfield anymore, the talent level is certainly enough to slow down Manning and company and more than likely to create a few big plays in this game. It is likely the Seahawks will choose to go toe to toe with the Broncos receivers, and although they will not win every matchup every time, they are one of the few, if not the only defense, that can matchup man to man with the Broncos, especially if you factor in linebacker K.J. Wright, who is also strong in coverage. So what does this mean for the Broncos run game? Well, it means the Seahawks (ranked seventh in rush defense in regular season) will not simply ignore the run game, and will instead send a bunch of guys on blitzes, both to rush Manning and stop the run. Denver in response will throw some screens out to Moreno, which have been quite effective this year. This chess match will continue throughout the game, with both sides likely to make some big plays. With Moreno (ribs) banged up (though fully expected to play) and the personnel the Seahawks have, I give a slight edge to Seattle in this specific phase of the game, and while Moreno or Ball may break off a couple nice runs, I expect their overall stats (and impact on the game) to be minimal in comparison to the other matchups in this game.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 310 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Demaryius Thomas: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 55 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Montee Ball: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Wes Welker: 75 rec yds
Eric Decker: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 55 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 27, Seahawks 24 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Broncos - (Thorne)

For only the second time in 20 years the top seeds from both the NFC and AFC will face off in the Super Bowl, an occurrence which took place eight times in the first 18 years after seeding was introduced and has been incredibly rare since then, only adding to the anticipation for the biggest football game of the year. Seattle earned their trip to New York by playing smash-mouth football, throwing sparingly but efficiently, and owning the best defense . In this battle of young versus old, offense versus defense, and aerial supremacy versus ground game dominance, the Seahawks are in the same breath both the heavy favorite and the overwhelming underdog. While their wins have gotten them to the precipice of a Championship, it is their losses that tell the most about the team and the areas they’ll need to avoid on Super Bowl Sunday.

Passing Game Thoughts: During the regular season Russell Wilson averaged 16 completions on 25 attempts for 193 yards, tossing a touchdown or two, throwing an interception every other game, and being sacked almost three times per contest. Seattle attempted the second-fewest passes but finished in the top ten for completion percentage with one of the best touchdown-interception ratios. In two post-season games Wilson has no interceptions but only one touchdown, and his marks for attempts, completions, yardage, and percentage have all dipped a bit, suggesting that the efficiency and effectiveness of the seldom-used passing game is beginning to deteriorate. Furthermore, the young quarterback has had only one impressive game since the bye in Week 12 and two of Seattle’s three losses have come in that span as well. In those defeats Wilson threw at or beyond an average number of passes and had some of his lowest completion percentages of the year; he was essentially forced to throw to keep the Seahawks in the game despite not having much previous success in doing so. Additionally, he committed as many turnovers in each of those games as he did scores, with two games of one touchdown and one interception plus a game with two touchdowns along with one interception and a fumble. In the three losses, he was sacked more than normal only once, but Wilson was not kept clean in any of the contests, so while Seattle struggled to protect the quarterback for most of the year (tied for tenth most sacks surrendered) they were not additionally poor in their losses. Star wide receiver Golden Tate was held in check only once in defeat (two catches on three targets for 28 yards) but he did not have a big game in any of the contests, breaking 60 yards twice but never reaching 70. In the three losses Tate was not the team’s leading receiver and in two of those three games he fumbled the ball after making receptions (though they were eventually recovered by Seattle), showing that the opposing defense made a point of attacking Tate and forcing the ball to go elsewhere and punishing him when he was included in the play. Even with the focus elsewhere, only once was another receiver able to record more than three catches, so while at various times all have contributed big plays or put together impressive stat lines, they seldom come when the team needs them most, when the primary playmaker has been neutralized. The biggest potential difference on Super Bowl Sunday for the Seattle passing game is that wide receiver Percy Harvin is expected to be available for the game, making only his third appearance all season after a concussion in the Divisional round caused him to miss the NFC Championship. With only five touches all year it’s hard to forecast how the Seahawks will use their ultimate X-factor.

With respect to the passing defense they’ll face, Seattle could have a more difficult opponent than the Broncos, but their season statistics may be a bit misleading. Often playing from ahead Denver faced the sixth most passing attempts and accordingly gave up the sixth most yards through the air. Not surprisingly, they gave up more passing touchdowns than most other teams but also forced more interceptions than the majority of the league; in all, their TD-INT ratio was average, and if late game “garbage time” yards and scores are eliminated, their regular season rankings improve noticeably. Denver was reasonably effective at getting to the quarterback, finishing better than average for sacks recorded, and had a slightly better than average mark for yards allowed per passing attempt. In many ways the Broncos pass defense was average for the NFL, perhaps slightly better, but certainly not elite. In each of their playoff games this season Denver held a commanding lead at the end of the third quarter (17-0 and 20-3) before giving up meaningless points and yardage in the final 15 minutes against two passing offenses who both rank in the top ten for the league; those two playoff wins came against teams that had previously beaten the Broncos during the regular season. In their three losses this year Denver failed to force an interception and tallied their only quarterback turnover from a sack–fumble. They averaged 2.5 sacks per game on the season and in their losses averaged 2.3, essentially the same mark. The biggest difference between their season averages and their losing performances was in passing touchdowns allowed, with 1.8 as the season mark and all of their losses featuring two or three touchdowns surrendered. In only one of those three games was the opposing quarterback highly efficient, averaging more than 7.1 yards per attempt (the Denver defense's season average), instead yards and scores were earned through an increased number of chances taken and eventually finding a hole in the Broncos defense. In the Super Bowl it will likely be difficult for Wilson and the Seahawks to follow another team’s passing attack blueprint for success since they rarely throw the ball more than 30 times and the average number of attempts the Broncos faced in their three losses was 36, more than Wilson has attempted in any game of his professional career. In their losses Denver did not give up more than 56 yards to a true wide receiver, potentially setting the stage for another game of Tate being the primary focus on defense and thus increasing the importance of Harvin’s return and forcing other pass catchers to be more involved in the game plan.

Running Game Thoughts: For as many ways as the Seattle aerial attack can be underwhelming, their rushing attack can be just as overwhelming, and the question for Super Bowl XLVIII is not if they’ll be able to run the ball but rather how effectively they’ll be able to run the ball. On the season the Seahawks had the fourth best per-game rushing average and the second most rushing attempts, giving them a great though not exceptional yards per carry of 4.3, just outside the top ten. Amazingly, they never broke a run of greater than 43 yards, giving them the third shortest season best in the NFL, all but proving that they excel at dominating the line of scrimmage and don’t rely on big plays to move the ball on the ground. The star of their rushing attack is Marshawn Lynch, who scored the most touchdowns in the NFL and had a top six mark for yardage. Behind him the next best rusher is the quarterback, who does the majority of his damage by scrambling rather than from designed runs, arguably making him more dangerous because of his ability to improvise and either buy time with his feet or take off down the field. Prevailing wisdom assumes that a strong ground game will allow Seattle to control the clock and use that to keep Denver out of rhythm offensively, but beyond affecting the opposition, it is imperative that the Seahawks be able to dominate time of possession for the sake of their own offense. Only once all season have the Seahawks lost when having more time of possession than their opponent, so while they have won multiple times when being out-possessed, the common thread in their losses is not controlling the football. In two of their defeats Seattle failed to gain more than 103 yards rushing and in those same two games Wilson carried the ball a total of only three times, so despite Lynch breaking 70 yards on each occasion, the rest of the ground game did very little. In the remaining loss, where the Seahawks were incredibly successful running the ball and had more time of possession, the deciding factors were losing the turnover battle and allowing a special teams touchdown from a blocked field goal. Despite scoring 28 offensive points Seattle still lost the game; the 34 points allowed that week were the most they surrendered all season, with the next highest being only 24; furthermore, only three other opponents ever broke the 21-point mark. Excluding that one game, the Seahawks have never lost when scoring more than two touchdowns, largely riding their stingy defense and the success of their running game all the way to the Super Bowl.

Facing duel-threat quarterbacks is nothing new to Denver, as they faced three early this season and one in a repeat performance in the 2013 finale. Wilson will clearly be the most skilled of the group they’ve faced and also the best decision maker, but the Broncos defense has done well limiting quarterbacks on the ground by using more 3-4 sets instead of their normal four-man defensive front. None of their losses came against duel-threat quarterbacks but none of those teams made the playoffs either, so the victories mean very little. For the year, Denver allowed the seventh fewest rushing yards per game and had the seventh best mark for yards per attempt; they are tied for seventh best with the Seahawks in both categories, so while the perception of the two defenses is different, the statistics suggest they’re incredibly similar, facing nearly the same number of attempts (420 vs. 422) and giving up exactly the same number of yards (1,626) during the regular reason. In the playoffs the Broncos held opponents to 65 and 64 rushing yards in back-to-back games, allowing only one touchdown, though that did come on an improvised play by a quarterback (Tom Brady) from five yards out. In their three regular season losses Denver allowed each opponent to rush 31 or more times for 116 or more yards and they lost the time of possession battle for the two games that did not go into overtime. Opponents each scored one rushing touchdown in those three contests but none of them averaged more than four yards per carry, so while their running games weren’t particularly efficient, they were able to slowly wear down the Broncos defense and control the clock by methodically working the ball downfield. It is in this area where Seattle needs to be able to find success, not necessarily in dominating the line of scrimmage but getting consistent enough of a push to open running lanes and move the ball down the field using the ground game, ultimately putting together long drives which eventually culminate in points scored. Unfortunately, both of Denver’s playoff opponents tried to do this but fell behind early and were never able to catch up enough to rely on their rushing attack. Not to mention that the Broncos will be expecting a run-heavy game plan from Seattle and will likely try to force the pass by stacking the box and keying on the run. Wilson will have to make plays through the air early to soften the Denver defense and hopefully open up running lanes as the game progresses.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 210 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT / 40 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 1 TD / 10 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 30 rush yds
Golden Tate: 50 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 30 rec yds, 1 TD / 20 rush yds
Doug Baldwin: 60 rec yds
Zach Miller: 40 rec yds

If the Super Bowl were a Hollywood movie we’d already know who would be lifting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the film. The Broncos have already started to rewrite the record books this season but for history to remember them they need a Championship to seal their fate. A fan favorite defensive back who has never been to the Super Bowl, an all but dismissed running back who found new life, a wide receiver who left his former team to chase a ring, and the quarterback who has shattered scoring records and stands one game short of being crowned the best ever. On top of that the last signal caller to lead Denver to a Super Bowl now an executive with the team and responsible for assembling much of the current roster. And much like Elway did after Super Bowl XXXIII, the current quarterback may ride off into the sunset following a successful Championship campaign. To do that they’ll have to avoid the pitfalls that caused them to lose three games this season, and do it against the best team they’ve faced all year.

Passing Game Thoughts: One additional Sunday storyline is that Peyton Manning has the chance to win a Super Bowl in the same stadium where his brother plays his home games, a feat which was accomplished by that same brother just two years ago when he won his Championship in the stadium where Peyton played at the time. To cap off what would be the best season ever by a quarterback, Manning will be looking to continue the outstanding success he found throughout the year, running away with the yardage and touchdown records as well as finishing second for the year in both yards per attempt and completion percentage and throwing the fewest interceptions of anyone who attempted at least 550 passes. In the playoffs his outputs have been more moderate, primarily because the Denver defense held their opponents in check and the offense was better suited at sustaining drives than scoring additional points. Still, in two games Manning recorded four touchdowns, one interception, 630 passing yards, a 72.1 percent completion rate, and has not been sacked nor committed a fumble. In the Broncos' three regular season losses, Manning threw three interceptions, seven touchdowns, completed less than 60 percent of his total passes, and was sacked seven times; while those marks are far from laughable, they fall well short of the elite level than Manning has played at for the majority of the season, and it is at that level which Denver needs him to play for the team to be at its best. In those defeats the Denver signal caller was outplayed by his counterpart, though to be fair they were two of the top six quarterbacks of 2013, plus a future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady. It didn't happen often, but for Manning to be outplayed this season it has taken one of the best in the game or one of the best of all time. In two of the three losses, none of the top four Denver pass catchers eclipsed 50 yards, and even though other receivers were able to be involved, the lack of rhythm between the stars of the team and their leader ultimately resulted in a loss for the Broncos. In the remaining loss, all four of the top receivers broke 90 yards or scored a touchdown, and wide receiver Eric Decker actually did both, but it was the four sacks that Denver surrendered that led to Manning once again falling out of rhythm and the team falling to their opponent.

Of every team in the NFL the Seahawks are the best equipped to disrupt Manning and keep his impressive receiving corps in check, but when it comes to stopping a future Hall of Famer, even the best personnel needs to perform at their highest level. No one was better against the pass this season than Seattle, neither in yardage allowed, interceptions forced, nor yards surrendered per attempt, and the Seahawks gave up the second fewest passing touchdowns in addition to finishing in the top ten for sacks recorded. Cornerback Richard Sherman finished with the most interceptions (8) for the season and safety Earl Thomas (5 INTs) was also in the top five; combined, they recorded more interceptions than nine entire teams. In Seattle’s three losses they allowed more than their season average passing yards and despite averaging nearly three sacks per game for the season they recorded only two in each of those defeats. In their worst loss of the year (14 points) they failed to force an interception and allowed 7.2 yards per passing attempt, more than 36 percent greater than their season average. The other two losses are almost perplexing, where Seattle opponents combined for 353 yards on 52 percent passing with two touchdowns and five interceptions; the Seahawks had a 5-3 turnover advantage in that pair of games and Wilson had better quarterback ratings than his counterpart. The only true defensive commonality between all three games, beyond the sub-par sack totals, is that Seattle gave up more than 60 yards to an individual receiver in each of the contests, including one game where two receivers each broke that mark; in two of those three losses they also surrendered a touchdown to a receiver who wasn’t the yardage leader. The demonstrated way to beat the Seahawks is to spread the ball around by forcing the secondary to cover additional receivers, and unfortunately for the defense this is what Manning is able to do better than almost everybody because he has at his disposal a great collection of pass catchers. If Seattle decides to commit to the pass rush and leave their secondary in man coverage they may ultimately be playing to the strength of the Broncos and the best pass blocking offensive line this year, one that hasn’t allowed a sack in nearly 11 quarters and hasn’t given up multiple sacks in a game for seven contests. The Seahawks have undoubtedly the best pass defense in the NFL but they’ll be facing the top aerial attack and the toughest offense they’ve seen all season.

Running Game Thoughts: In addition to a phenomenal passing game, the Broncos have a rushing attack that is in the top half for yards per game, just below the midline for yards per attempt, and has scored more rushing touchdowns than all but six other teams, including their Super Bowl opponents, who have nearly 50 more rushing attempts. Viewed by some as an afterthought, Denver’s ground game is a perfect complement to what they’re able to do through the air, and the play action opportunities it opens up are a large part of their success. After some early uncertainties, Knowshon Moreno became the Broncos' primary ball carrier, one of 13 players to gain more than 1,000 rushing yards and one of only five to achieve double-digit touchdowns on the ground in addition to three more though the air; he scored the fourth most total touchdowns of any player and is the only running back in the top nine not to have lost a fumble. Behind him, Montee Ball has established himself as the second back in Denver and Ronnie Hillman has been inactive for the playoffs despite rushing 55 times this season. In their two playoff games Moreno has totaled 141 rushing yards and one touchdown while Ball has gained 95 with no scores; each has caught three passes out of the backfield. In two of the three Denver losses this season they failed to gain 65 rushing yards, one time gaining only 18; the leading rusher in those games averaged less than 2.7 yards per carry. In the remaining loss Denver jumped out to an early lead and turned to the run to shorten the game. But despite a 24-0 halftime lead, the Broncos needed a late touchdown to force overtime, where they would eventually lose because of a late field goal. In that game it was the inability of the defense to hold a lead which cost them the game, but in the other two it was the ineffectiveness of the rushing attack that ultimately led to defeat. Only three times this season has Denver failed to attempt more than 20 rushes, including two losses and a game which required a late comeback to beat the worst team . Clearly the Broncos are at their worst when their ground game is ineffective, so regardless of the success they do or don’t see from the rush, it is almost certainly in their best interest to continue to make something work and record at least 20 rush attempts; without an honest effort to establish the run, an offense becomes one dimensional, and even arguably the greatest quarterback ever has a difficult time leading his team to victory when the defense knows what he’s about to do.

Amid the dramatically overblown controversy surrounding a post-game interview, clever nicknames for their defensive secondary, and their self-proclaimed status as an underdog despite being the heavy favorite all season long, Seattle’s underwhelming run defense has quietly gone unnoticed. Since their bye in Week 12 they’ve had exactly one good game against the rush when facing a team with a non-losing record. Despite averaging 101.6 yards against per game, the Seahawks allowed 139 and 163 yards to divisional opponents; those were sandwiched between stellar performances against sub-.500 teams and the aforementioned good performance. In the playoffs they allowed 108 and then 161 rushing yards along with 4.2 and 5.8 yards per carry marks, respectively. One playoff team exploited them by using two backs interchangeably and the other did it with their quarterback; in each game, a backup running back scored a touchdown, so while they’ve fairly effectively limited the starter, they’ve been less stingy against the backfield as a whole. In their three regular season losses, including those two less-than-stellar games after the bye week, the Seahawks have given up 108 rushing yards or more along with one rushing touchdown, additionally no fumbles were forced on running plays and Seattle won the turnover battle only once. Furthermore, in two of those three games Seattle had less time of possession than their opponent, primarily due to their ability to run the ball and control the clock. Even in their two playoff victories Seattle has just 116 more combined seconds of possession than their opponent. Assuming Denver attempts an average number of rushes (or more) the Seahawks are not likely to entirely shut down their ground game, and while Denver may total less than 100 rushing yards, that still gives Manning enough of a complement to the passing game to force the defense to play on balance rather than loading up against a certain facet of the offense. The worst case scenario involves Seattle not being able to contain the Broncos rushing attack and then having to overcommit, leaving their superb secondary with difficult matchups and Manning with enough time to eventually make them pay.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 270 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Knowshon Moreno: 50 rush yds, 1 TD / 20 rec yds
Montee Ball: 30 rush yds
Demaryius Thomas: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 60 rec yds
Wes Welker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Broncos 31, Seahawks 30 ^ Top