Patriots @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: He’s one of the most decorated fantasy football (and NFL) quarterbacks of all-time, but 2013 was not exactly the best of Tom Brady for fantasy owners. Brady’s 25 touchdown passes were his lowest total in a full season since the 2006 season and his QB rating of 87.3 was his worst since all the way back in 2003. Including his zero touchdown performance this past week against the Colts, Brady has now failed to hit the three touchdown mark in six straight contests. Still, the Patriots are winning games and that’s what has been important to those invested in the franchise. The only player in the New England pass offense who has had any sort of consistency this season has been wide receiver Julian Edelman. Edelman, a veteran who has primarily played out of the slot this season, quietly led the team with 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns in the regular season—a very Welker-esque stat-line. Edelman again led the team in across the board in receiving this past week when he caught six passes for 84 yards against the Colts. The only other player with over 20 yards receiving against Indianapolis was Danny Amendola, who caught three passes for 77 yards. Amendola’s injury-plagued season was highlighted by numerous ups and downs, but he does have two 10-catch performances under his belt, which makes him the only receiver besides Edelman who can be relied on for fantasy purposes.

In the AFC championship game, Brady and co. will be up against Denver whose “bend but don’t break” defense has led to some decent fantasy numbers for opposing quarterbacks. During the regular season, Denver ranked 23rd in the league in points allowed to the position, including allowing 28 total touchdowns while intercepting 17 passes. When these teams played back in Week 12 in New England, the Broncos allowed Brady to throw for 344 yards and three touchdowns (two for Edelman, one for Gronkowski), but it did take him 50 pass attempts to get to those numbers. With the cold weather likely to be a factor as it was when the Patriots hosted the Colts in the divisional round, it would be surprising to see Brady approach that many pass attempts. Still, it is worth noting that Edelman had his best fantasy day of the season against this defense; a nine catch, 110-yard, two score performance. Running back Shane Vereen also did a great job out of the backfield against the Broncos, which should not be overlooked. Although Denver does have linebackers who have mostly done a good job of holding running backs in check in the passing game this season, Vereen was able to sneak by for eight catches and 60 yards.

Running Game Thoughts: With Tom Brady behind center, one could not have expected that the Patriots would lean so heavily on the run in their divisional round playoff game. That’s exactly what they did, as the team’s top three backs toted the ball 43 times for an astonishing 231 yards. Leading the pack was veteran tailback LeGarrette Blount, who carried the rock 24 times for 166 yards; and most importantly crossed the goal line a career-high four times. Blount’s monstrous fantasy day came as a big surprise, but it reminds us that when we’re talking about a team coached by Bill Belichick, nothing should really surprise us. Lost in the ridiculous performance from Blount was another big fantasy performance out of the same backfield as Stevan Ridley ran the ball for 52 yards and two touchdowns himself.

While Shane Vereen was utilized only sparingly in this contest, one has to imagine that he will see more snaps for the Patriots if this week’s game against the Broncos turns into a high-scoring affair. The Colts had no answer for the Patriots’ running game and New England has all the confidence in the world as they head to Denver to battle it out for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Broncos finished the season about middle-of-the-pack against the run, but did seem to struggle a bit toward the end of the season against the run. In their final eight contests, the Broncos allowed five teams to hit 19-or-more fantasy points out of the running back position. That includes a Week 12 game against these very same Patriots when it was Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen who did most of the damage, combining for 160 total yards and a touchdown. With Blount and Ridley rolling at such a good pace, it would be surprising to see the Patriots not try to implement another run-heavy attack in an effort to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands. Look for the Patriots to again approach 30 rushing attempts this week, which should mean some decent fantasy production.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 235 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
LeGarrette Blount: 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Stevan Ridley: 40 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 20 rush yds, 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: After escaping a third game against the Chargers this season, the Broncos are riding high as they head into the AFC championship game. After decimating the Chargers for four touchdowns in Week 10, Manning struggled at times in each of his past two games against San Diego. Even with those two games, Manning had been absolutely unbelievable this year; putting together the best fantasy football season of any player at any position in the history of the league...if that doesn’t say something, I don’t know what does. Manning’s unbelievable ride has been enjoyed by his receivers, including Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas who all finished in the top eight at their position (standard scoring). Even Wes Welker, who missed the final three games of the regular season after a concussion, finished as the No. 21 wide receiver in fantasy. With Welker now back, all four pass catchers in this high-powered Denver passing game deserve to be ranked at or near the top of the rankings on championship weekend.

After falling short on the road against the Patriots back in Week 12, Denver now will have the benefit of hosting for the AFC championship game. Denver is 8-1 at home this season and Peyton Manning’s numbers have been terrifying at Mile High Stadium. But Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been one of Peyton’s worst matchups throughout his career. While he has thrown 41 touchdown passes in his 18 career games against New England, Manning has also thrown 24 interceptions in those contests—more than he has against any team. Worse yet, his career record in those 18 games is just 6-12. Worse yet, the Patriots held Manning to his worst game of the season when these teams played back in Week 12; as he threw for just 150 yards while completing just 52.8 percent of his passes. There is no question that Belichick will have his troops ready to play, but this is no ordinary offense. The 2013 Broncos were the highest-scoring team in the history of football. Holding them in check once is possible, but twice? Unlikely. Look for Manning and co. to have a nice day, but don’t expect one of his four-plus touchdown performances that we were all spoiled with during the regular season.

Running Game Thoughts: IIt was yet another nice fantasy day for Knowshon Moreno this past week as the Broncos lead runner compiled 94 total yards and a touchdown in the win over the Chargers. Moreno was incredible all season as he benefitted from defenses focusing on Peyton Manning and the team’s electric passing game. Moreno shocked everyone by finishing the regular season as a top-5 running back for the first time in his career, but by now everyone should realize that he is one of the elite fantasy tailbacks in the league. Not only has Moreno been productive, but rookie Montee Ball has also started to get a more prominent role in the offense. Ball has taken at least 10 carries in four of his past six games, which makes him a viable fantasy contributor even as only a complementary back to Moreno.

This surprisingly productive duo will be up against a defense that they ran all over earlier this year. Moreno cracked 100 yards rushing only once in 2013, but he didn’t stop there—in that game, Moreno toted the rock 37 times for 224 yards and a touchdown, his best fantasy day of the season. In that same game, Ball rushed for an additional 40 yards. The opponent? These very same New England Patriots. Those numbers typically mean a blowout, but that’s not what happened. In fact, despite the success the Broncos had on the ground, they were not able to keep up with the Patriots and fell by a final score of 34-31. While they had tremendous success on the ground in the previous matchup, don’t look for the Broncos to utilize the same gameplan they did back in Week 12. New England has been much better against the run since that disastrous game against the Broncos, having allowed an average of just 92 yards rushing to opposing running backs and four total rushing scores in their past six games. Moreno still has plenty of fantasy value this week while Ball isn’t likely to do a whole lot.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 310 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Knowshon Moreno: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Montee Ball: 30 rush yds
Demaryius Thomas: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 60 rec yds
Eric Decker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Caldwell: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 31, Patriots 30 ^ Top

49ers @ Seahawks - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Colin Kaepernick had a solid if underwhelming season relative to expectations by fantasy owners, though it didn’t help that Michael Crabtree was out for most of it. Now, with Crabtree back, Kaepernick seems more comfortable, and in the seven games (including the playoffs) since the big wide receiver’s return, Kaepernick has thrown nine touchdowns with only two interceptions. Yet it’s unwise to put him in fantasy lineups this week. Kaepernick had a total of 302 passing yards with one touchdown and four interceptions in his two regular season meetings with the Seahawks this season, and the team also held Vernon Davis to just 41 yards on five receptions, though one did go for a touchdown. The only 49er in the passing offense to have some success against Seattle was Anquan Boldin, who grabbed eight passes for 93 yards against them in Week 14. But if possible, fantasy owners should simply avoid San Francisco pass catchers—the Seahawks’ secondary is just too dangerous.

The 2,752 passing yards Seattle allowed this season was the lowest total in the league by 353 yards, and only Tennessee gave up fewer touchdown throws than they did. The Hawks were also one of just two teams to hold opponents to less than 6.0 yards per attempt, and they led the NFL in interceptions. No squad gave up fewer fantasy points to QBs or WRs this year than Seattle, who also allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore had yet another solid season for the 49ers and his fantasy owners, with nine touchdowns and more than 1,100 rushing yards, but has seen his production wane as the season progressed. Including the playoffs, he has just three rushing scores over his last 10 games and has broken 90 yards only twice in his last 12 contests. Gore faced the Seahawks twice this year, and his results couldn’t have been more different—he had 16 rushing yards against them in Week 2 and 110 in Week 14, though not a touchdown in either contest.

Fantasy owners have worse options than Gore, but for the most part Seattle has been tough on running backs this year. The Seahawks tied the Broncos for seventh in the league in rush defense, tied the Panthers for fewest rushing scores allowed, were seventh in YPC allowed, and only the Cardinals surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing RBs.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 35 rush yds
Michael Crabtree: 75 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 35 rec yds
Frank Gore: 65 rush yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson deserves all the accolades he receives, but fantasy football is a bottom-line entity, and the fact is that Wilson has put up mediocre numbers of late. Over his last five games, including the playoffs, he hasn’t thrown for more than 206 yards, has twice thrown for less than 110 yards, and has four touchdowns with three interceptions. One of those previous five games was against the 49ers, and in the two contests this season in which Wilson played his NFC West rivals, the quarterback threw for a total of 341 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions while completing just 52.3 percent of his passes. Wilson does not have a plethora of game-breaking wideouts and tight ends to throw to, and that stable could be without Percy Harvin this week if his concussion keeps him off the field. Otherwise, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin lead the way, and while both had their usefulness to fantasy owners during the season, neither is especially intriguing this week against San Francisco.

The 49ers had the league’s seventh-ranked passing defense this season, allowed the seventh-fewest touchdown throws and were tied for 10th in interceptions. They surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, the ninth-fewest to WRs, and the 12th-fewest to TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t much to say about Marshawn Lynch that hasn’t been said many times. Not only is he entertaining to watch but his production speaks for itself. Of all the players in this game, Lynch is the one that simply has to be in fantasy lineups if at all possible. Despite the fact that he didn’t run for more than 3.6 YPC in either of his two meetings with the 49ers this season, Lynch did score four times against them (including one on a reception) and compiled 170 rushing yards against a tough run defense.

San Francisco was fourth in the NFL in rushing defense during the regular season, tied for 11th in rushing scores yielded, was ninth in YPC allowed, and gave up the 10th fewest fantasy points to RBs.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Golden Tate: 65 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Percy Harvin: 35 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 20 rec yds
Zach Miller: 15 rec yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 20, 49ers 17 ^ Top