Ravens at Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Coming off
an impressive playoff run that earned him a massive, long-term
contract, fantasy owners of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco are
hoping that he can parlay that success into yardage and touchdowns
in 2013. Flacco will be without two of his top targets from a
season ago as Anquan Boldin moved to San Francisco this offseason
and Dennis Pitta fractured his hip in camp. Another year of development
from Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones could help fill those voids,
but Flacco will really need to prove his worth by putting the
team on his back with less-than-stellar options in the passing
game.
With Von Miller suspended, Elvis Dumervil gone in free agency
and Champ Bailey out with an injury, the Denver defense could
be in for a long night on Thursday as they try to keep up with
the speedy Baltimore receivers. They struggled to do so a season
ago, as Jones and Smith combined for 230 yards and three touchdowns
over the two games, doing most of their damage in the playoff
game. Denver will be happy that Pitta is out as he beat them up
the most; catching 10 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns
in those contests. His replacement, Ed Dickson, is not quite the
receiver that Pitta is, but could find some soft spots in the
Broncos defense as they try to shut down the deep pass game.
Running Game Thoughts: One of the
most consistent fantasy producers in the game, Ray Rice is back
again in 2013 and should remain the focal point of the Baltimore
Ravens offense. The 26-year-old does have a lot of tread off his
tires but is coming off his fourth straight season of over 1,600
total yards and 60+ catches. He is also coming off his second
straight season of 10+ touchdowns. While Bernard Pierce did become
a more active part of the running game toward the end of the 2012
season, the reality is that his role in the offense is still complementary
to everything Rice does, especially this early in the year.
Rice gashed the Broncos for 131 yards and a score in their divisional
round playoff game a season ago and Denver’s front seven
is in shambles at the moment. While Dumervil and Miller are primarily
known as pass-rushers, their presence typically forces opposing
running backs to sit back in pass protection more often than usual.
With Dumervil now on the Ravens sideline and Miller serving a
suspension, the opportunity is certainly going to be there for
Rice to make a much bigger impact as a receiver in this contest
than he did against the Broncos in 2012. Rice is an elite pass
catcher and an obvious must-start in any format. For now, we’ll
take a “wait and see” approach for Bernard Pierce
and until we see him getting 10+ touches of his own, he remains
a very risky option as a flex play.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ray Rice: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 50 rec yds
Torrey Smith: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jacoby Jones: 30 rec yds
Ed Dickson: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: A rematch
of the AFC divisional playoff game that broke the hearts of Broncos’
fans a season ago could be just what the doctor ordered to get
Peyton Manning on track in 2013. Manning did struggle a bit against
the Ravens a season ago, as he failed to hit the 300-yard mark
in either game he played against them. This season Manning will
have a brand new weapon at his disposal in Wes Welker, who is
a brilliant compliment to the already stellar duo of Demaryius
Thomas and Eric Decker. Look for the Broncos to run as many three-wide
sets as any team in the league this season and Week 1 should be
no different. It is worth noting that the Ravens largely shut
down Demaryius Thomas last year while Eric Decker torched them
for 14 catches, 217 yards and a touchdown in two games. Welker
also had a big game against Baltimore as a member of the Patriots
last season, catching eight passes for 142 yards in their Week
3 contest.
The Ravens defense is expected to regress a bit this season with
the offseason losses of future hall of famers Ray Lewis and Ed
Reed, but many of the core players remain that have made Baltimore
a quality defense for years. They ranked seventh in the league
at shutting down opposing quarterbacks a year ago, but will likely
need to get after Peyton Manning if they hope to shut down the
Broncos’ high-powered passing game in Week 1.
Running Game Thoughts: We’ll
get our first glimpse of one of the most confusing backfields
in the league on Thursday night as the Broncos trio challenges
the Ravens defense. Denver has been non-descriptive about their
running back situation, leading to speculation that Ronnie Hillman,
rookie Montee Ball or even veteran Knowshon Moreno could be the
team’s primary Week 1 ball carrier. Because we don’t
know what the team will do, it is hard to project that any of
these backs as a strong fantasy option for Week 1.
Although the Ravens were decent against the run in 2012, they
did struggle to slow down the Broncos in each of their two games
against them. With Willis McGahee out, it was Hillman and Moreno
who combined for 262 yards rushing in those two games; with each
runner carrying the bulk of the load in one game. With Denver
likely utilizing all three of their backs, they should all remain
fresh, even late in the game. We just don’t know if any
of them will touch the ball enough to be quality fantasy options
in Week 1.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 280 pass yds, 2 TD
Montee Ball: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 40 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Wes Welker: 90 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 65 yards, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 23
^ Top
Falcons at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Led by Matt
Ryan, the Falcons had the league’s number six passing offense
in 2012. Each of his main weapons – Julio Jones, Roddy White
and Tony Gonzalez – return, and that trio represents arguably
the best wide receiver/tight end combination in the league. They
play the Saints this week, a team that represents a juicy match-up
for the pass catchers and their quarterback.
New Orleans gave up more offensive yards last season than any
team in the history of football. Naturally, defensive coordinator
Steve Spagnuolo was fired, and Rob Ryan was hired to replace him
and install a 3-4 defense. How the switch will shake out over
the course of the season remains to be seen, but some rough patches
early wouldn’t be terribly surprising, and the Falcons should
be the benefactors. After all, in two games against the Saints
last season, Ryan threw for 576 yards four touchdowns, White caught
eight passes for 134 yards, Jones snared nine balls for 123 yards
and Gonzalez annihilated them for 160 yards and three touchdowns
on 15 receptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Gone is Michael
Turner, whose “Burner” nickname had long since been
a moniker he hadn’t lived up to. Steven Jackson, the all-time
leading rusher in Rams history, was signed to replace him, and
though he’s now 30 years old, there seems to be plenty left
in the tank. He has run for 1,000 yards in each of his last eight
seasons, caught at least 35 passes in each of those years as well
and should continue to play at a level worthy of being a fantasy
starter.
It helps that Jackson gets to start the season against the Saints,
who were atrocious against the run last season. No team allowed
more rushing yards (2,361) than the they did and they were also
last in yards per rush allowed, as runners gashed them for 5.2
yards per tote. Moving to a 3-4 defense is supposed to make it
more difficult for the opposition to run the ball, but the personnel
still has to be there and I don’t think the Saints did enough
to become a run-stopping team all of a sudden.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 285 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Julio
Jones: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy
White: 85 rec yds
Tony
Gonzalez: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Steven
Jackson: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jacquizz
Rodgers: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: If Drew Brees
isn’t the best quarterback in the NFL, he’s at least
in the conversation. He ran the league’s top-ranked passing
offense last season and that was without head coach and play-caller
Sean Payton, who returns after being suspended last season. Brees
chucks it most often to Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore
and Darren Sproles, and each should see their share of passes
this week against the Falcons.
Atlanta had their struggles in pass defense last season, ranking
23rd, but they did allow just 14 passing scores, which was best
in the NFL. Brees had a 298-yard, three touchdown game against
the Falcons when the teams first matched up but had a disaster
zero-TD, five-INT game against them a few weeks later. That type
of game isn’t likely to happen again, so we’ll put
it aside as just one of those games. Each of the team’s
top receiving weapons had success against the Falcons last season
with Colston catching one touchdown, Graham exploding for 143
yards and two scores in the teams’ first match-up, and Moore
hauling in a total of 14 passes for 214 yards.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
was the top rusher for the Saints last season with 602 yards and
five touchdowns, and he’ll play the role of top back again
this year. Still, he’s averaged just 3.9 yards per carry
in his career, doesn’t catch the ball much and shares the
backfield with Pierre Thomas and the aforementioned Sproles, which
makes his fantasy value lower than top backs on some other teams.
The Falcons weren’t very good against the run last season,
ranking 21st in the league while giving up an average of 4.8 yards
per carry. That damage wasn’t done by Ingram however, because
in two games against Atlanta he ran for 80 yards and one touchdown
with one catch for -1 yards. Sproles missed one of the games against
the Falcons, and while he didn’t run it once in the other
contest, he did catch five passes for 47 yards, while Thomas had
a two-game total of 94 yards on 19 carries to go with two catches
for 11 yards.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 325 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Marques
Colston: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Jimmy
Graham: 80 rec yds, 2 TD
Lance
Moore: 65 rec yds
Robert
Meachem: 15 rec yds
Mark
Ingram: 45 rush yds
Darren
Sproles: 15 rush yds, 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre
Thomas: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Falcons 31, Saints 28
^ Top
Raiders at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Oakland was
eighth in the league in passing offense last season, but that
was with Carson Palmer under center. They will reportedly start
Terrelle Pryor this week against the Colts, and while he certainly
adds a running dimension that fantasy owners love, his passing
remains a question mark. Oakland doesn’t have dynamic weapons
on the outside, with Denarius Moore being the most fantasy-friendly,
and the team also features Rod Streater and Jacoby Ford.
The Colts were 21st in pass defense a year ago, but don’t
have a lot to worry about this week. They should be able to exploit
Oakland’s suspect offensive line and pressure Pryor into
taking off and running once he gets uncomfortable.
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders
were 28th in the NFL in rush offense last season, with Darren
McFadden running for an abysmal 3.3 yards per carry while gaining
707 yards. When healthy – which is rare – McFadden
is a dual running/receiving threat, and he did catch 42 passes
last season. The problem this year is that with Pryor under center,
teams can put most of their focus on stopping McFadden, making
his fantasy outlook hazy.
As for the Colts, they had problems against the run in 2012, as
just three squads gave up more rushing yards than Indianapolis
last season, and only the Saints allowed runners a higher yards
per carry average than the 5.1 Indy allowed.
Projections:
Terrelle
Pryor: 180 pass yds, 2 INT, 45 rush yds
Denarius
Moore: 65 rec yds
Rod
Streater: 50 rec yds
Jacoby
Ford: 20 rec yds
Darren
McFadden: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians clicked last season, helping
the Colts rank seventh in pass offense during Luck’s rookie
campaign. There hasn’t been a more promising young quarterback
in years, and fantasy owners know this. He may not improve on
his 4,300+ passing yards from last year, but his maturation, plus
a quality receiving corps featuring Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton,
Darrius Heyward-Bey (yep, even him) along with tight ends Coby
Fleener and Dwayne Allen should allow Luck to throw more than
the 23 touchdowns he tossed last season, and this week the Raiders
will be there to help allow it.
Oakland spent their first-round pick on cornerback D.J. Hayden
because of their struggles against the pass last season –
they were 20th in pass defense and 23rd in passing scores given
up. But the bad news doesn’t stop there. They were 25th
in yards per pass attempt allowed, 29th in completion percentage
allowed and 31st in sacks.
Running Game Thoughts: The Colts,
due in part to mediocre personnel, were 22nd in the league in
rushing offense in 2012 averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Vick
Ballard led them with 814 yards but scored just twice and averaged
fewer than 4.0 yards per tote. The team signed Ahmad Bradshaw
in an underrated move during the offseason, and though health
problems limited him in the preseason and will cut into his carries
this week, look for him to be a fantasy contributor during the
year. He should still be a factor against Oakland.
Though the Raiders ranked 18th against the run in 2012, they were
tied for 28th in rushing scores allowed. They gave up 4.3 yards
per carry, which was 20th in the NFL and though these numbers
aren’t horrific, their focus is likely going to be on Luck
and Co. meaning Bradshaw and Ballard should be able to find some
holes.
Projections:
Andrew
Luck: 290 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Reggie
Wayne: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
T.Y.
Hilton: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Darrius
Heyward-Bey: 40 rec yds
Dwayne
Allen: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby
Fleener: 20 rec yds
Ahmad
Bradshaw: 50 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Vick
Ballard: 40 rush yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Raiders 13
^ Top
Seahawks at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: As good as
Russell Wilson was last season, the Seahawks were a run-oriented
team who ranked only 27th in passing offense. Wilson threw 26
touchdowns against 10 interceptions but as a result of his limited
pass attempts, he amassed just over 3,100 passing yards. Percy
Harvin will not be available at the start of the season, meaning
the team will have to rely on Sidney Rice and Golden Tate to be
their pass-catchers, with an occasional look for Doug Baldwin
and Zach Miller. These are solid players, but Harvin would up
the ante and make Wilson that much more valuable as Carolina was
above average against the pass a year ago.
The Panthers were 13th in the NFL in pass defense last season,
which is impressive in a division that features the Falcons and
Saints. They were also tied for 13th in passing scores allowed
and gave up fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Still, stopping
the Seahawks’ passing attack isn’t going to be Carolina’s
main focus – limiting Seattle’s running game is.
Running Game Thoughts: No team ran
the ball more often than Seattle last year, which led to them
being the league’s third-ranked rush offense. Fantasy stalwart
Marshawn Lynch is the catalyst and he ran for nearly 1,600 yards
while scoring 11 times last year, with his only downside being
his lack of pass-catching duties. Backing him up will be Robert
Turbin, Christine Michael, or more likely some combination of
the two. And let’s not forget Wilson, who ran for 468 yards
last season, which makes the Panthers’ job that much more
difficult.
Carolina was decent against the run in 2012, ranking 14th in the
NFL and giving up 4.2 yards per carry while yielding 11 touchdowns,
which was tied for 12th in the league. Their biggest defensive
addition was defensive tackle and first-round pick Star Lotulelei,
who was impressive in the preseason but gets a stiff test against
Seattle in his first real competition.
Projections:
Russell
Wilson: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 35 rush yds
Sidney
Rice: 75 rec yds
Golden
Tate: 60 rec yds
Doug
Baldwin: 35 rec yds
Zach
Miller: 25 rec yds
Marshawn
Lynch: 105 rush yds, 2 TD
Robert
Turbin: 25 rush yds
Christine
Michael: 20 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Panthers
never seemed to find much of an identity last year and their lack
of outside weapons hurt, which led them to a ranking of 16th in
passing offense. Unfortunately, they didn’t address that
need in the offseason so Cam Newton will have to rely on essentially
the same cast of pass-catchers. That cast is led by Steve Smith,
who had 1,174 yards on 73 receptions a season ago, but scored
only four times and is 34 years old so there are warning signs.
Tight end Greg Olsen is the other main weapon for Newton and his
numbers last season were better than most people probably realize:
69 catches for 843 yards and five touchdowns. However, they do
have a very tough test this week against an outstanding Seahawks
secondary.
Seattle was sixth in the league in pass defense a year ago and
had good numbers across the board. Led by uber-talented loudmouth
Richard Sherman, they were tied for second-fewest touchdown throws
given up, allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt, the
eighth-lowest completion percentage and tied for eighth in interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Carolina’s
rushing offense was solid in 2012, ranking ninth in the NFL and
averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Jonathan Stewart is probably the
most talented member of their backfield but he had injury issues
last year and does so once again this season, as he’ll miss
the first six games with an ankle injury. Newton was the team’s
leading rusher with nearly 750 yards while scoring eight times,
which helps make him one of the top fantasy quarterbacks. But
fantasy owners often get frustrated with Carolina’s rotating
backfield, because even though Stewart is out and DeAngelo Williams
will get the bulk of the carries, Mike Tolbert (expected to play
– hamstring) is the goal-line back with Newton also being
a de facto red zone threat, leaving little promise for Williams
to have a big day, especially against Seattle.
The Seahawks were one of just seven teams to allow fewer than
10 rushing scores a season ago and ranked 10th in rush defense,
but did allow ball carriers to gain 4.5 yards per carry. I suppose
that doesn’t natter a whole lot if teams aren’t getting
a lot of yards or putting the ball in the end zone against you.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yds, TD
Steve
Smith: 75 rec yds
Greg
Olsen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon
LaFell: 35 rec yds
DeAngelo
Williams: 55 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mike
Tolbert: 20 rush yds
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Panthers
17 ^ Top
Chiefs @ Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: The worst
pass offense in the NFL last year wasn’t the Arizona Cardinals
as many may reasonably assume. No, that distinction went to the
Chiefs, who were dead last in the NFL in passing yards and passing
touchdowns – they threw just eight all season. That won’t
be the case this year, not with pass-happy head coach Andy Reid
calling the plays and not with the accurate Alex Smith under center.
Smith is anything but flashy, yet he should fit right in with
Reid and most importantly to fantasy owners, improve the stock
of wideout Dwayne Bowe significantly with the Jaguars being a
perfect first opponent.
Jacksonville was 22nd in the NFL against the pass in 2012 and
the rest of their numbers against the pass are below average to
poor as well. They were 21st in yards per pass attempt allowed,
25th in completion percentage allowed and no team sacked the quarterback
fewer times than the Jaguars. In fact, their 20 sacks were five
less than any other team in the league.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chiefs
were fifth in the league in rushing offense last year with Jamaal
Charles gaining over 1,500 yards and rushing for 5.2 yards per
carry despite the fact the team was completely unable to throw
the ball. Charles also has the ability to be a weapon as a receiver,
though he didn’t show that much last year for obvious reasons.
He only scored five times in 2012, but I expect that number to
improve and he could have multiple touchdowns this week because
Jacksonville has their issues against the run in 2012.
Despite the Jaguars holding opponents to 4.1 yards per carry last
season, they were 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
They also gave up the second-most rushing scores in the NFL and
though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a statistical improvement
out of them this year, they’ll still have lots of trouble
with elite runners like Charles.
Projections:
Alex
Smith: 220 pass yds, 1 TD
Dwayne
Bowe: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Donnie
Avery: 45 rec yds
Dexter
McCluster: 30 rec yds
Anthony
Fasano: 25 rec yds
Jamaal
Charles: 115 rush yds, 2 TD, 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Jaguars
haven’t had much of a passing game for years, despite trying
to remedy the situation with high draft picks. The picks haven’t
worked out and the team was just 21st in pass offense last season.
Blaine Gabbert is on track to start if his injured hand is ready
to go, but he’s been terrible as a pro and I have no reason
to think he’ll suddenly see the light. It hurts that Justin
Blackmon is suspended for four games so Cecil Shorts will have
to step up his game as much as he can, if that’s even possible
with Gabbert under center. Either way, the Chiefs shouldn’t
have much to worry about with the Jacksonville passing “attack.”
Kansas City ranked 12th in the league against the pass last year,
but gave up an average of 8.0 yards per attempt, which was the
third-worst mark in the league. They were also tied for the fewest
interceptions in the NFL but if they put even a small amount of
pressure on Gabbert, he’ll flinch, leading to some potential
picks.
Running Game Thoughts: Only two
teams ran for fewer yards than the Jaguars a season ago, which
shows just how important Maurice Jones-Drew is. Despite playing
in just four games (with only two rushing attempts in a fifth
game), his 414 rushing yards were 131 yards more than any other
Jaguars back. He’s healthy now and is the sole player on
the Jacksonville offense worth being an every week starter for
fantasy owners and he has a good opportunity to do some damage
against Kansas City.
The Chiefs ranked 27th against the run last season with opponents
averaging 4.5 yards per rush. Yet looking at their defensive personnel,
they should have been better than that in 2012 and should definitely
improve this year, though they have a difficult opening test against
MJD, who seems to produce no matter if the other team knows it’s
coming based on how horrid his quarterback is.
Projections:
Blaine
Gabbert: 165 pass yds, 2 INT
Cecil
Shorts: 65 rec yds
Ace
Sanders: 35 rec yds
Denard
Robinson: 20 rec yds, 10 rush yds
Marcedes
Lewis: 15 rec yds
Maurice
Jones-Drew: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 13
^ Top
Bengals @ Bears
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Bengals
passing game has a lot of potential this year with the additions
of rookies Tyler Eifert (TE), and Giovani Bernard (RB), and the
continued development of Mohamed Sanu (WR) and stud wide receiver
A.J. Green. Of course, the biggest hurdle with this team becoming
an elite passing team is quarterback Andy Dalton, who enters his
third year with great weapons and hope but not very big expectations
from outsiders. Last year the Bengals were middle of the road
in most passing categories, with solid but unspectacular numbers
across the board. While there is certainly room to go up with
their solid additions and continued young player development,
Cincinnati is still probably going to be a pretty conservative
offense full of shorter passes and an emphasis on milking the
clock with the run game in order to rest their dominant defense.
The bright spot on this unit is Green, who was 10th in the NFL
in receiving yards, fourth in receiving touchdowns, and fifth
in targets. Green has become matchup proof even with a mediocre
quarterback, but the rest of the receiving corps will be hot and
cold based on matchups. Speaking of matchups, the Bears pass defense
was near-elite last year, finishing eighth best in yards allowed,
first in interceptions, and second in quarterback rating allowed.
The Bears should be pumped up playing at home for the opener,
and I expect a lot of pressure put on Dalton and a good amount
of double coverage on his favorite target, Green. If Dalton can
get the check downs going early, it may open up the field for
Green and some bigger plays later; but if he gets rattled right
away, it could be a long day for the Bengals passing game. Like
I said, Green is matchup-proof, so you have to start him and hope
he breaks a couple of short passes for big yards. As for all other
members of the passing unit, I would sit them in this game unless
you really have no better option. As the season goes on I expect
both Dalton to be a decent QB2 option and one of the two tight
ends to step up, but until the matchup is right and we know what
we are getting, this unit (besides Green) is avoidable from a
fantasy perspective.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals
run game last year was fairly consistent and productive but also
pretty boring and un-explosive with BenJarvus Green-Ellis carrying
the bulk of the load. This season, the run game has a chance to
be much more exciting, with rookie Bernard adding some lightning
to the thunder that BJGE can bring. While the Bengals finished
just below the league average in most running categories, they
rarely abandoned the run, and with two solid running backs this
year, the run game may be featured even a bit more, with hopefully
slightly better results. The Bears run defense last season was
also very good, finishing eighth in yards allowed and third best
in rushing touchdowns allowed. While both BJGE and Bernard will
be nothing more than mediocre flex-plays in this game, it will
be very interesting to see how the Bengals use the two backs,
as it may be a sign of which back will be the better fantasy contributor
this year. Pay close attention to the amount of snaps, carries,
targets, and goal-line work each back gets in this game, as it
is a tough battle to really understand with only a limited amount
of preseason tape to look at. I would personally avoid using either
back in this game, as it is a tough matchup and a guessing game
as to how much work each will get.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
A.J.
Green: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine
Gresham: 35 rec yds
Mohamed
Sanu: 30 rec yds
Giovani
Bernard: 35 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While Chicago
finished near the bottom in most passing categories last year
and only produced one fantasy star (Brandon Marshall), this unit’s
stock is pointing up and could be one of the nice surprises from
both an NFL and a fantasy standpoint. While the addition of tight
end Martellus Bennett and the development (and good health) of
wide receiver Alshon Jeffery should give Jay Cutler some nice
new targets to throw to, the biggest help may be in the form of
new coach Marc Trestman, who has had great success with grooming
quarterbacks and boosting his team’s passing games to new
levels. With Marshall, Bennett, Jeffery, and running back Matt
Forte, the Bears should have four legitimate pass-catchers to
throw to. The biggest question mark will be if Cutler can stop
locking on to Marshall and spread the ball around enough to make
it harder for defenses to defend. Speaking of defenses, the Bengals
are one of the NFL’s elite, ranking seventh in passing yards
allowed, fourth in passing touchdowns allowed, and third in sacking
the quarterback last year. The matchup to watch here will be the
Bears offensive line, which is improved from last year’s
horrible unit but still probably not much above average, versus
the Bengals defensive line, which was one of the best last year.
If Cutler gets time to throw downfield, the Bears' overall chances
of success improve greatly. Being that the line is still gelling
and the Bengals line is so good, I certainly give the advantage
here to Cincinnati. Look more for a bunch of quick passes and
check-downs here rather than an all-out aerial assault. Marshall
is still a must-start because of the sheer volume of targets he
will get, just don’t expect a monster game. As for the other
Bears pass-catchers, I would be a bit hesitant to start any of
them—outside of Bennett as a lower TE2, perhaps—until
we get a look at how each will be used and whether Cutler spreads
the ball around a lot. I would also hold off on Cutler this game
in a tough matchup, as he adjusts to a new system, line, and receivers.
This is not a good matchup at all but certainly a unit to watch
closely this year.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bears
finished with the 10th most rushing yards last season despite
a very average 4.2 ypc. Forte was once again the focal point of
the run game, with backup Michael Bush stealing most of the goal-line
work and occasional other carries. This season the players are
the same but Forte may be in line for even more work, both at
the goal-line and in the passing game, in which he excels but
dropped off a bit in production last year. The Bengals have a
formidable front seven that finished 12th in the NFL last year
in rush yards allowed and may be even a bit stronger this season
with some new additions. With the Bengals pass defense and pass
rush being so strong, the Bears may emphasize the ground game
even more in an effort to protect Cutler. If this happens, look
for Forte to get 20 or more total touches and be a solid lower-tier
RB1 this week because of the workload he should get. If Forte
continues his strong offseason and gets the work that Coach Trestman
says he will get, he should be a strong RB1 this year, even in
less-than-ideal matchups like this week. Watch how the Bears use
Bush in this game, but he is far from anything other than a handcuff
right now, as he may even lose most of the goal-line touches which
made him an occasional flex-play last season.
Projections:
Jay
Cutler: 235 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Matt
Forte: 70 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon
Marshall: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus
Bennett: 35 rec yds
Alshon
Jeffery: 40 rec yds
Michael
Bush: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 23, Bears 20
^ Top
Dolphins @ Browns
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Miami threw
the third fewest touchdown passes in the league last year (13),
but there is reason to believe this is a much-improved unit. Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill is now entering his second year and has looked
improved this preseason, throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Perhaps more importantly, the Dolphins went out and got wide receiver
Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense and open things up
both underneath and in the run game. The Cleveland pass defense
was nothing special last year, finishing 25th in yards allowed
and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63 percent of their
passes. Despite these poor numbers, the Browns have some real
talent on defense and should be improved this year, with stud
defensive back Joe Haden leading the way and new addition Paul
Kruger rushing the quarterback. The thing to watch in this game
will be how the Dolphins and Tannehill spread the ball around,
because he has not really developed a strong chemistry with any
of his receivers yet this offseason, with slot man Brandon Gibson
leading the team in receptions with nine. Of course the guy most
fantasy owners are most excited about is Wallace, but he got off
to a slow start this preseason and will probably be covered a
lot by Haden, making him more of a WR3 in this game and until
he really shows us something. As for the other receivers, none
are recommended starts, other than maybe Gibson in deep PPR leagues.
I look for the Dolphins to throw away from Haden, but who will
benefit from this is anyone’s guess at this point in the
early season. Owners should be in “wait and see” mode
with this unit since they are largely unproven and the Dolphins
may emphasize a run-heavy scheme early this year.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite Miami
coaches talking up running back Daniel Thomas this preseason,
Lamar Miller is fully expected to be the man and carry a big load
for the Dolphins this year. With the departure of Reggie Bush,
Miller has the tools and the opportunity to be a top 15 fantasy
back this year, and perhaps a bit better when the matchup dictates
it. This matchup should provide Miller with a decent chance to
put up good numbers, as the Dolphins should emphasize the run
to protect Tannehill and try to exploit a Browns run defense that
let up the 14th most rush yards last year. This will be Miller’s
first regular season game as a starter, so there may be some early
jitters to get past, but he has looked much improved this preseason
and should get involved in all game situations, including third-down
and goal-line packages. The Browns defense should be a little
tougher than they were last year, but I still see this as a plus-matchup
for Miller and therefore he could flirt with low-end RB1 numbers
in this first game.
Projections:
Ryan
Tannehill: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Lamar
Miller: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Mike
Wallace: 40 rec yds
Brian
Hartline: 40 rec yds
Brandon
Gibson: 50 rec yds
Daniel
Thomas: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Browns
passing game was pretty awful last year (16 TD:18 INT, 73.6 QB
rating), but there is good reason to believe a big improvement
is in store this season. First, quarterback Brandon Weeden is
entering his second year as starter and has looked better this
preseason (though still inconsistent). Secondly, the talent level
should be better all-around, with an excellent offensive line,
a running back with good hands (Trent Richardson), a breakout
tight end candidate (Jordan Cameron), a super-talented outside
wide receiver (Josh Gordon), and a reliable chain mover over the
middle (Davone Bess). Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the
additions of head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator
Norv Turner mean the offense should better utilize Weeden’s
strength (his arm) and feature Gordon and Cameron, the team’s
two most athletic weapons. On the downside, Gordon is suspended
the first two games, and it will most likely take this offense
a few weeks to gel with so many new parts and plays. Also on the
downside for this week, the Dolphins defense is a tough matchup
that plays a bend-but-don’t-break type scheme and has playmakers
at each level. While Miami let up a ton of yards through the air
last year (sixth most), they were ninth best in completion percentage
allowed, seventh best in sacks, and perhaps most importantly,
sixth best in passing touchdowns allowed. What this all means
is that the Browns should be able to pile up some yardage throughout
the game, but getting in the end zone and sustaining long drives
may be a big problem. Until we see this Browns offense really
start to gel, or the matchup is much better, I would not start
any Browns player other than Richardson and perhaps Cameron as
a mid-level TE2. This offense should put up some decent numbers
this year, but in their first game, without Gordon and in a tough
matchup, they should be avoided in fantasy circles.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite having
a ton of talent, Richardson struggled a bit his first season and
the Browns running attack finished in the lower half of the league
in most statistics. This season Richardson is healthier than he
was for most of last year, still has no competition for carries,
is running behind a strong line, and should be helped by an overall
improved offense. Thanks to the sheer volume of work that Richardson
should get both on the ground and through the air, he is basically
matchup-proof, although he will be more of a good RB2 in many
matchups rather than the RB1 he is being drafted as. This matchup
is one of those tough ones, as the Dolphins ranked among the top
13 teams last year in rush yards allowed, rush yards allowed per
carry, and rushing touchdowns allowed. Because Richardson should
get 20-plus touches in this game, I still like him as a strong
play, but do not expect huge numbers here, as this should be a
low-scoring affair with a lot of three-and-outs.
Projections:
Brandon
Weeden: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Trent
Richardson: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Jordan
Cameron: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg
Little: 35 rec yds
Davone
Bess: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Browns
17 ^ Top
Titans @ Steelers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Locker
has put up some decent preseason stats this year and there is
no questioning his arm strength and natural athletic ability.
That being said, fans and fantasy owners alike want to see him
put it all together when it really counts before we can really
trust this unit. Last year the Titans ranked in the bottom half
of almost all the major passing statistics, including completion
percentage, yards, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating,
while compiling an awful 17:16 TD-to-INT ratio. The offensive
line should be much better this season, and there is talent at
the skill positions with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Kendall
Wright, Chris Johnson, and rookie Justin Hunter all being above
average...yet Locker remains the key to the overall success of
this unit. If Locker can continue his hot preseason and throw
with more accuracy, this team could really put up a nice balanced
offense, which of course could make two or three of these guys
fantasy stars. If Locker does not improve, most everyone on this
unit will be mediocre boom-or-bust type weekly plays, depending
on if their quarterback is on that week or not. This week the
matchup does not get much tougher, as the Steelers were last year’s
No. 1 defense against the pass. Not only did they let up the fewest
passing yards, they ranked in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt
allowed, quarterback rating allowed, completion percentage allowed,
and passing touchdowns allowed. With a stud defensive back in
Ike Taylor and a ball hawk in safety Troy Polamalu (healthy so
far), the Steelers will be tough to throw against, especially
at home with a loud and raucous crowd in Locker’s ear. While
Britt and Washington are listed as the two starters, I actually
like Wright the best of the Titans' top three receivers—both
this week and for the season. Without a very dependable tight
end, and with opposing top corners covering Britt, I like Wright
to see the most targets and use his after-catch ability to rack
up some decent yards. Against this tough defense, none of the
guys in this unit are very exciting this week unless you are in
a larger league or in need of an average WR3 or very low end QB2.
This unit will produce some great games this year, and Locker,
Wright, and Britt all have some breakout potential, but this is
not the week to gamble on them.
Running Game Thoughts: It is a shut-up-or-show-up
type of year for Chris Johnson, as he has put up back-to-back
to back average years after a big breakout campaign in 2009. Last
season CJ2K put a lot of the blame on the offensive line as to
why the run game was struggling, so the Titans listened and revamped
and improved the line, especially the interior. While it is only
the preseason, the improvement is very evident, and Johnson is
a prime candidate to bounce back into fantasy’s elite RB
group. If Locker can get defenses to respect the pass just a little
more from last year, Johnson should be able to find some running
room and use his elite speed to break multiple long runs each
game. On the downside of things, the Steelers defense is not easy
to run against, so the Titans offense may sputter a bit this opening
week. Last year the Steelers gave up the second fewest rushing
yards in the league, and let up a measly nine rushing touchdowns
and a very respectable 3.7 yards per carry average. The good news
for Johnson owners is that all he really needs is one long run
to make it a good fantasy day, but if he does not get that in
this one, he may be more of a low-end RB2 rather than the solid
RB1 which he can be in better matchups. Start Johnson for sure
because he will get the touches, just don’t expect him to
carry your team this week.
Projections:
Jake
Locker: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Chris
Johnson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Kenny
Britt: 30 rec yds
Nate
Washington: 35 rec yds
Kendall
Wright: 45 rec yds
Shonn
Greene: 20 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers
were about average last season in the passing department, not
really struggling in any one area, but not exactly excelling in
any either. The faces are a bit different this year, as wide receiver
Mike Wallace is gone and tight end Heath Miller is currently hurt,
taking away two of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets.
In their place, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will be asked
to step up, along with veteran Jerricho Cotchery and rookie Markus
Wheaton, who has looked fabulous this preseason. While this unit
certainly has talent, and Big Ben is a near-elite NFL quarterback,
the distribution of targets and the amount of productivity that
this unit will see is somewhat of a mystery. Brown will be asked
to be a No. 1 wide receiver but does not really have the traditional
makeup of one, while Sanders will be counted on more than ever,
even though he has been a bit injury prone. While it may be tough
to guess the pecking order of Steelers pass-catchers, the good
news this week is that the Titans are not a great defense, having
given up an NFL high 29.4 points per game last year. More specifically,
the Tennessee pass defense was atrocious, ranking second worst
in completion percentage allowed and tied for second worst in
touchdown passes allowed. The only thing the Steelers should worry
about in this specific matchup is the pressure put on Big Ben,
as the Titans do rush the passer reasonably well (ninth in sacks
in 2012), and the Pittsburgh offensive line isn’t exactly
a strength of the team this year. In this matchup Roethlisberger
should be a decent QB1, and while it is tough to say who he will
throw to the most, both Brown and Sanders should see enough action
to be considered decent WR2s. No other Steeler in this unit is
startable at this point until we really see how each player will
be utilized.
Running Game Thoughts: The Steelers
run game was an absolute mess last season, and with the injury
to rookie Le’Veon Bell, that will probably carry into this
season for the first couple of weeks. Using a combination mostly
of Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman, the Steelers managed a pitiful
3.7 yards per carry last season (28th in NFL), eight rushing touchdowns
(27th), and a pathetic longest run of just 34 yards (30th). This
year, with not much change on the offensive line and perhaps a
bit less receiver talent to rely on, the Steelers will roll with
Redman as their feature back this week. For some reason the Pittsburgh
coaches seem to love Redman despite his lack of production, so
with no other real option, he will probably see 15-20 touches
in this game. While the Titans run defense was not very good last
year (24th in rush yards and rushing touchdowns allowed), the
Steelers will still probably do most of their damage through the
air in this matchup unless it becomes a blowout, which I do not
expect. If you are in a 12- or 14-team league with a flex play,
Redman is probably worth a start this week simply because they
do not have anyone else and the volume of touches will be there.
No other Steeler back is worth a look this week, and until Bell
gets back no Steeler back is worth getting too excited about in
general.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT 10 rush yds
Antonio
Brown: 70 rec yds
Emmanuel
Sanders: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus
Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Isaac
Redman: 70 rush yds, 15 rec yds
LaRod
Stephens-Howling: 15 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 27, Titans
20 ^ Top
Vikings @ Lions
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Vikings
finished at or near the bottom of most all passing statistics
last year, as their run-first mindset, limited talent, and injuries
severely limited them in the passing game. The light is perhaps
a little brighter this year, although this is still a run-first
team with big limitations. The additions of wide receivers Greg
Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson, along with the development
of quarterback Christian Ponder and tight end Kyle Rudolph, should
improve this unit slightly from last season, but this is still
Adrian Peterson’s team and a unit to mostly avoid in all
but the very best matchups. This first week the Vikings draw in-division
rival Detroit, who finished about average in pass defense last
year but do not really stand out in any area other than their
defensive line. While Jennings should lead the team in yardage
this season, he is not much more than an average WR3 until we
know for sure how comfortable Ponder is throwing to him. We do
know that Ponder likes throwing to Rudolph, especially in the
red-zone, and that makes him a quality TE1 start this week, even
if the yardage numbers won't be huge. Ponder himself should not
be started at all, and that is a trend that will continue throughout
the year unless he really shows a giant leap in decision making
and accuracy. No other Vikings passing game player is recommended
this week, as they either lack talent (Jerome Simpson) or opportunity
(Patterson) at this point.
Running Game Thoughts: Minnesota
finished with the second most rushing yards last season and averaged
a league-high 5.4 yards per carry average thanks to Adrian Peterson’s
remarkable comeback from ACL surgery. Peterson put up big numbers
against weak and strong opponents alike, and this year he sounds
hungrier than ever to get better and better. Thanks to a decent
defense and a run-first game plan, Peterson has become pretty
much matchup proof as a RB1, and with a little improvement in
the passing game, he may actually be even more consistent this
year. This week’s matchup is a pretty good one for the Vikings,
as Detroit ranked about the middle in rushing yards allowed last
year, although their yards per carry allowed was below average
(4.5) and they gave up a healthy amount of rushing touchdowns
(13). Last year versus Detroit, Peterson put up 273 yards and
a touchdown on the ground over two games, with the game in Minnesota
being better statistically. Peterson is of course a must start
this week, and anything less than 100 yards would be a pretty
big surprise.
Projections:
Christian
Ponder: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Adrian
Peterson: 110 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Greg
Jennings: 50 rec yds
Kyle
Rudolph: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Cordarrelle
Patterson: 25 rec yds
Jerome
Simpson: 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: With the
addition of Reggie Bush, a (presumably) healthy Ryan Broyles and
all-world wide receiver Calvin Johnson, the Lions will once again
be one of the premier passing teams in the NFL. In both games
against the Vikings last year, Matthew Stafford threw for over
300 yards, with the game in Minnesota actually being a stronger
game for him. The only thing really missing last year in the Lions
aerial assault was a lot of touchdowns, which was partly a fluke
and partly due to some red-zone inefficiencies. With Bush demanding
respect from the defense in the short and intermediate areas,
and Megatron demanding deep attention, the Lions may actually
greatly improve their numbers from last year, at least in touchdowns
and efficiency. The Vikings passing defense did not look good
statistically last season (other than sacks—fifth in NFL),
but they certainly have talent at all levels of the defense, both
young and experienced. In this matchup I have to favor the Lions
since it is at home and they just have too many weapons that are
all healthy and ready to go. While I can see Minnesota forcing
a lot of pressure on Stafford, he has too many options to check
down to now, and with the volume of passes attempted, I just don’t
see how Minnesota can slow them down on a consistent basis. Stafford
should be a nice lower-end QB1 this week, with Johnson being an
easy WR1 as well. Keep a close eye on how the rest of the targets
are divided up in this game, as it may be a sign of how valuable
Pettigrew, Bush, Broyles, and company will be for the rest of
the year. Until we get a better idea how the targets will be split
up, I am sitting Pettigrew, Broyles, and of course Burleson.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions
attempted the eighth fewest rushes last season and were not very
efficient when they did run, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry.
Thanks to their highly-effective passing attack, however, they
did manage to get in the red-zone a lot, where they punched it
in on the ground 17 times (tied for sixth in the NFL). This season
their run-game depth chart is revamped, where last year’s
starter Mikel Leshoure is now third on the depth chart (although
probably still first for goal-line carries) and newcomer Reggie
Bush is first, with Joique Bell mostly coming in to give Bush
a rest. Despite the perceived upgrade in talent, the Lions running
attack will probably be used about the same amount and perhaps
with about the same efficiency. This team remains highly pass-first,
and Bush will probably see as many (or more) targets in the pass
game as he will carries per game. The good news for fantasy owners
is that Bush is an elite pass-catcher for a running back and,
thus, does not have to put up big rushing numbers to be fantasy-valuable.
The Vikings should be a very tough matchup on the ground (11th
last year in rush yards allowed, seventh in ypc allowed), so expect
the Lions to keep their actual rushes to a minimum and instead
use screens and swing passes as their version of the run. Bush
is a solid start as a mid-range RB2 this week, and it will be
interesting to see exactly how much of a total role he will get
in the game plan. I like Bell as a deep-league sleeper this year,
but at this point he is not startable until we see how much of
a role he will have. Leshoure is totally off the fantasy radar
at this point, except maybe in deep TD-only leagues.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 310 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Reggie
Bush: 40 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Calvin
Johnson: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Ryan
Broyles: 40 rec yds
Nate
Burleson: 30 rec yds
Brandon
Pettigrew: 35 rec yds
Joique
Bell: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 24
^ Top
Texans @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The decade-long
search for the “Robin” to Andre Johnson’s “Batman”
may finally be coming an end as the Houston Texans selected Clemson
wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the first round of April’s
NFL Draft. Hopkins, a 6’1”, 215 lb target is the kind
of player who is tough enough to make catches over the middle
and talented enough to beat defenses down the field as well. We’ll
get our first glimpse of him as he lines up opposite Johnson on
Sunday against the Chargers. Johnson, who is coming off a career
year when he nearly surpassed 1,600 yards receiving, doesn’t
appear to be slowing down as he heads into his 11th season as
a pro. Although he missed 12 games over the course of the 2010
and 2011 seasons, he remained healthy in 2012, as did tight end
Owen Daniels who missed only one game, caught six touchdown passes
on the year and turned in the best overall fantasy season of his
career. Quarterback Matt Schaub also played all 16 games, which
helped earn the Texans the best record in franchise history at
12-4.
The Texans will be up against the San Diego Chargers, who are
coming off of an ugly season where they allowed a total of 30
touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Although they were able to
keep three opposing QB’s out of the end zone, all three
were from some of the worst passing games in the league—Brandon
Weeden, Mark Sanchez and Matt Cassel. Although Matt Schaub isn’t
a top-10 fantasy quarterback, this matchup is a decent one for
he and the Houston receivers. San Diego allowed 13 or more fantasy
points (standard-scoring) to opposing wide receivers in every
game except two in 2012. It is worth noting however, that the
Chargers were fourth-best in the league at shutting down opposing
tight ends a season ago. Only once did an opposing team’s
tight ends score more than 10 fantasy points and although Owen
Daniels is a quality player, he’s not particularly known
for the big game. He’s a low-end TE1 option at best this
week against the Chargers.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s
been one of the most prolific running games in the league three
years, but nagging injuries to running back Arian Foster have
many fantasy experts questioning his ability to touch the ball
nearly 400 times again as he did in 2012. Foster’s yards
per carry and reception numbers have dropped in each of the past
three seasons, although he has remained a fantasy stud simply
due to the number of times that he touches the ball. Given the
incredible workload he has been given, it’s very possible
that the Texans will lean more on other players than they have
in recent years. That could mean good things for backup running
back Ben Tate whose star has shined bright in the past when given
an opportunity to tote the rock in Houston.
It will be particularly interesting to see what the Texans do
with their running backs in game they are expected to win by multiple
scores. Foster himself carried the ball 20+ times in nine games
a season ago. Tate, on the other hand, only took 10+ carries in
two games—both of which the Texans won by multiple touchdowns.
If the Texans do get out to an early lead in this game, it’s
very possible the coaching staff will look to rest Foster, who
did not take a single carry in the preseason due to a back injury.
Projections:
Matt
Schaub: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Arian
Foster: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Ben
Tate: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre
Johnson: 90 rec yds
DeAndre
Hopkins: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen
Daniels: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It seems
like centuries ago since San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip
Rivers was actually considered to be a top-tier NFL quarterback.
In reality, it’s actually only been two years. Two ugly,
ugly years. Rivers has thrown 53 touchdown passes over the past
two seasons which isn’t too bad, but it’s his 35 interceptions
and 79 sacks-taken during that span that are the real concern.
Of course, it doesn’t help that Rivers was without his former
top target Vincent Jackson in 2012, but things don’t look
much better in 2013 as Danario Alexander will miss the year with
a torn ACL and Malcom Floyd has already been bitten by the injury
bug this preseason as well. Although Floyd is expected to play
in Week 1, he and Vincent Brown are Rivers’ top targets
and neither player has proven capable of playing that role in
an NFL offense thus far in their careers. Antonio Gates showed
some signs of life in the preseason but his role in the offense
continues to decrease even as the team loses other options in
the passing game.
Rivers and the Chargers will have their work cut out for them
in Week 1 as they go up against one of the league’s best
defenses. Although Houston did allow 29 touchdowns to opposing
QB’s in 2012, nearly half of those came in three games.
The other side of the coin is that the Texans held opposing quarterbacks
to 10-or-fewer fantasy points in half of their regular season
games. The Chargers’ passing game did not spent much time
working together this preseason and with JJ Watt breathing down
his neck all afternoon, expect Rivers to struggle mightily in
this one. His best chance to acquire fantasy points may come at
the end of the game in “garbage time” with the Chargers
down multiple scores.
Running Game Thoughts: Before injuries
knocked him down fantasy draft boards, Ryan Mathews was considered
by many experts to be one of the potential rock star fantasy running
backs in the 2012 season. But even when he came back and was presumably
healthy, Mathews was one of the biggest disappointments of the
year. His 3.8 yards per carry average is inexcusably bad and his
one—yes, one—touchdown on the year was even worse.
Although Mathews has flashed the skills that made him a first
round pick back in 2010 from time to time, the truth is that fantasy
owners are right to have doubts about putting them in their fantasy
lineups.
Those doubts should be even stronger once the matchup against
the Houston Texans defense is examined more closely. The Texans
allowed only five total touchdowns on the ground to opposing running
backs in 2012, which helped contribute to them being the third-best
defense at shutting down opposing running backs a season ago.
In what was the only regular season game that he did not break
100 rushing yards after Week 6, Adrian Peterson needed 25 carries
to rush for just 86 yards against the Texans in Week 16. It’s
hard to believe that Ryan Mathews is going to touch the ball 25
times…and even if he does, he’s no Adrian Peterson.
His ability to catch passes out of the backfield does make him
an underrated PPR option but Mathews is only a low-end FLEX play
at the moment.
Projections:
Philip
Rivers: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Ryan
Mathews: 45 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Vincent
Brown: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom
Floyd: 40 rec yds
Antonio
Gates: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Texans 27, Chargers
16 ^ Top
Packers @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Whether you
call him 1A or 1B, Aaron Rodgers is widely considered to be one
of the top two quarterbacks in the league coming into the 2013
season—and for good reason. Rodgers has scored a total of
89 touchdowns over the past two seasons while throwing just 14
interceptions over that span. Those numbers are unbelievable when
you consider that Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings—Rodgers’
top two options in the passing game—have missed a combined
15 games over the past two seasons. With Nelson ready to go in
Week 1 and the emergence of James Jones and Randall Cobb as viable
threats in the passing game, Rodgers looks ready to pick up where
he left off in 2012. No one was hotter than Rodgers toward the
end of the season as the Packers signal caller tossed 10 touchdowns
and zero interceptions over his final three regular season games.
Although Green Bay came away with losses in each of their two
games against the 49ers in 2012, Aaron Rodgers still came through
against one of the league’s premier defenses, throwing for
560 yards, four touchdowns and just two interceptions in those
contests. He also added 55 yards as a runner. When looking at
Rodgers’ pass-catchers, it might be surprising to note that
it was James Jones who produced the most against the 49ers in
2012. The wideout caught eight passes for 168 yards and two scores
through the two contests. Meanwhile Randall Cobb, who caught 14
passes in those same games, was only able to turn in a total of
101 yards and was held out of the end zone. Nelson’s 110
yards on 10 catches were serviceable but nothing spectacular.
The 49ers defense is very tough and they don’t allow many
points against them which could limit the Green Bay passing game
to a decent, but not great week.
Running Game Thoughts: After a horrible
year of running the ball, the Green Bay Packers have turned to
two rookie running backs—Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin—in
2013. With Lacy expected to be the primary ball carrier, he has
picked up some steam in recent weeks and started to be looked
at as a low-end RB2 or very high-end RB3. Lacy still will have
the same problems that the previous Packers runners had, as there
haven’t been significant upgrades to the offensive line
and with Aaron Rodgers behind center, they remain one of the most
pass-heavy offenses in the league.
In Week 1, Lacy will be thrown to the wolves against one of the
best run defenses in recent history. The 49ers allowed the second-fewest
amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2012 and
their young defense is looking to pick up where they left off
a season ago. As they did through most of the year, Green Bay
struggled to run the ball against the 49ers in either of their
two games. Their running backs combined for just 71 total rushing
yards in those two contests and although DuJuan Harris got into
the end zone once, those numbers can’t give fantasy owners
of Lacy much confidence going into Week 1.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 15 rush yds
Eddie
Lacy: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Randall
Cobb: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordy
Nelson: 60 rec yds
James
Jones: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermichael
Finley: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
not often that a quarterback who played only half of a season
gets the kind of hype that Colin Kaepernick has coming into the
2013 season, but this is a case where the hype is justified. He
didn’t always look like an amazing precision passer, but
Kaepernick made defenses pay time and time again with a big arm
and some of the fastest legs of any quarterback in the league.
He started just seven games, but Kaepernick still finished fourth
among quarterbacks in rushing yards. He also added five touchdowns
on the ground—third best at the position. The biggest concern
with Kaepernick might not be him, but rather with his receivers.
Michael Crabtree is on the IR and although Anquan Boldin is a
new addition to the offense, it’s hard to believe that he
will be able to fill the void that Crabtree has left.
Even with the loss of Crabtree, Kaepernick’s Week 1 matchup
against the Green Bay Packers is a juicy one for fantasy owners.
The last time these two teams played was in the NFC Divisional
Playoff round. If he hadn’t already arrived, that was when
Colin Kaepernick made himself known throughout the league. The
second-year abused the Packers defense with 263 yards and two
touchdowns in the air, but it was his 181 yards and two scores
on the ground that made for one of the most impressive games we
saw from any player all year. Although those points really didn’t
count for fantasy, they do give us insight as to what Kaepernick
is capable of when a defense has no answer for his skills. Although
Green Bay’s defense isn’t completely the same, they
still have most of the same personnel. If Kaepernick can even
do anything close to what he did in the playoff game, fantasy
owners will have huge smiles on their faces after Week 1.
Running Game Thoughts: Every year
experts predict a massive drop off from Frank Gore. He’s
a year older, he’s not as fast, the team has more options
in the backfield. Yet somehow he continues to defy the critics.
Gore rushed for over 1,200 yards for the second straight season
and his 4.7 yards per carry average was his best since 2009. Gore
has looked good, but there’s no question that running behind
what is perhaps the league’s best offensive line has been
a major contributor to the production that we’ve seen from
him.
The last time these two teams met, Gore tore up the Packers for
112 yards and a score on the ground. That wasn’t it, though—when
they played earlier in the season, Gore was even better, rushing
for 119 yards and a score while also adding 48 yards as a receiver.
As good as Green Bay’s defense is, they have struggled mightily
to slow down the more physical, methodical offenses like the 49ers.
And there’s really no reason to believe that those struggles
won’t continue again in 2013. The threat of the run from
Colin Kaepernick gives Gore even more daylight from the defense,
which is all he needs for another productive game.
Projections:
Colin
Kaepernick: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Frank
Gore: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Anquan
Boldin: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Quinton
Patton: 40 rec yds
Vernon
Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 24, Packers 20
^ Top
Cardinals @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: A season
ago, there may not have been a more pathetic passing game in the
league than the Arizona Cardinals. Even with one of the league’s
best in Larry Fitzgerald and first round rookie Michael Floyd
out wide, no one seemed to be able to throw the ball in Arizona.
Credit to the Cardinals though, as they went out and addressed
the problem by signing former No. 1 overall pick Carson Palmer.
Palmer’s best days are behind him, but even with a horrible
offense around him, Palmer was able to throw for over 4,000 yards
and 22 touchdowns. He does make mistakes, but the fact that Palmer
at least possesses the ability to get the ball to Fitzgerald and
Floyd is a huge upgrade from what this team had just a season
ago.
In Week 1, Palmer and the Cardinals will be up against an underrated
St. Louis Rams defense that held the Cardinals without a passing
touchdown in either game last year. Although the Rams were beaten
up by opposing QB’s in the middle of the season, it’s
important to note that they did not allow a single quarterback
to throw more than one touchdown pass against them after their
bye in Week 9. Although Arizona is unquestionably improved as
a unit in the passing game, expecting a big performance from Palmer
or any of the receivers is probably too much. There will be better
matchups for this team as the season goes on, but this simply
isn’t one of them.
Running Game Thoughts: As great as the Arizona passing game has
been most years since they acquired Larry Fitzgerald, they simply
have not been able to find a quality running back to complement
their aerial assault. In 2013, they will look to free agent acquisition
Rashard Mendenhall who left a crowded Pittsburgh backfield after
an injury-riddled season. Mendenhall failed to hit the 1,000 yard
mark in each of his past two seasons and his 3.6 yards per carry
average in 2012 was the worst of his career since becoming an
every-week starter. It’s hard to argue that he won’t
be an improvement from what they had last year, but the it’s
hard to be too excited about the fantasy prospects of the Arizona
running game. The offensive line is still one of the worst in
the league and the injury to first round pick Jonathan Cooper
just makes things that much worse.
The Cardinals running game won’t be scaring too many defenses,
but hey—their running backs did beat up the Rams defense
to the tune of 226 total yards and two touchdowns in their two
contests last year. Although we don’t really expect that
to happen again and the team will likely lean much more heavily
on their passing game this year, owners of Rashard Mendenhall
do have to be a little interested in the fact that much worse
running backs—on worse overall teams—were able to
do something against the Rams.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rashard Mendenhall: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Ryan Williams: 20 rush yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds
Andre Roberts: 45 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
a put-up-or-shut-up season for former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford
as he and the Rams look to compete in what might be the best division
in football. St. Louis spent a first round pick on a big-time
playmaker, Tavon Austin, who is expected to be a huge part of
the offense in 2013. Second-year receiver Chris Givens has also
been getting some major hype throughout the offseason as one of
the team’s most-improved players. With Danny Amendola now
gone in New England, the Rams may not have the reliable over-the-middle
receiver that allowed Givens to get deep so many times in 2012.
A season ago, Sam Bradford had two of his ugliest games against
this very same Cardinals defense. Although he threw four touchdowns
and only two interceptions in those contests, he threw just seven
completions in the first game and eight in the second game. He
completed just a total of 42.8% of his passes in those games—which
were still Rams wins—and looked very bad doing so. Chris
Givens, however, was able to get deep for a long touchdown reception
in each game, making him an interesting FLEX play in Week 1 for
those in deeper leagues. Overall, the Cardinals were excellent
against opposing quarterbacks. They allowed the second-fewest
amount of points to the position on the year, including a league-best
21 interceptions forced.
Running Game Thoughts: For nearly a decade, one man has held down
the starting running back job in St. Louis. That man, Steven Jackson,
has rushed for over 1,000 yards in an incredible eight straight
seasons, while being a very productive pass-catcher in the process…and
he is now a member of the Atlanta Falcons. In Jackson’s
absence, the Rams are expected to turn to a committee backfield,
led by second-year back Daryl Richardson who was a productive
runner as a complementary piece to Jackson a season ago. Richardson
rushed for a solid 4.8 yards per carry average and was also utilized
some in the passing game. Isaiah Pead is expected to compete for
the starting job upon his return from suspension, but with only
rookies Bennie Cunningham and Zac Stacy taking carries from him,
Richardson could be a decent option in Week 1.
Richardson will be running against a Cardinals defense that began
to break down over the second half of 2012. They held opposing
teams’ running backs to 10 or fewer fantasy points in four
of their first eight games to start the year, but allowed at least
13 in every single game thereafter. The Rams themselves ran for
282 total yards in their two contests against the Cardinals and
although they were somehow unable to get into the end zone with
that much yardage, there’s still a lot to like for Daryl
Richardson in Week 1. Given the lack of competition in the backfield,
he may be as good as a low-end RB2 against the Cardinals this
week.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Daryl Richardson: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Chris Givens: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Tavon Austin: 50 rec yds
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Rams 17, Cardinals
16 ^ Top
Buccaneers @
Jets - (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The less
passing quarterback Josh Freeman does, the better off his team
will be. The wide receiver duo of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams
is formidable and will challenge even the skilled Jets secondary
but there aren’t many other quality receiving options beyond
those two. Swing passes and short routes will get running back
Doug Martin involved out of the backfield, but the downside of
those attempts is that they rely on execution from the quarterback.
Freeman has shown moments of promise but has also displayed moments
of head-scratching decision making. The Jets won’t score
enough to force Tampa Bay into a pass-heavy offense, which is
a blessing for the Buccaneers.
Defensively, the Jets will field a talented secondary, which
can severely limit the passing attack of most NFL offenses. Tampa
Bay will find it hard to move the ball through the air but should
find moderate success in the short passing game. Unfortunately,
the skill set of Freeman isn’t sharp enough to fully take
advantage of what the New York defense may give him. Rex Ryan
will use aggressive blitzes and wild defensive packages to disrupt
Freeman and create turnovers in hopes of helping out the Jets'
own anemic offense.
Running Game Thoughts: Thankfully, Doug Martin has recovered
from the concussion he suffered in the preseason. His team will
count on him to continue the breakout success he saw during his
rookie season. He’s a talented young back and the Buccaneers
need to give him the ball as frequently as he can safely handle.
Unfortunately, it appears that Tampa Bay’s best lineman,
guard Carl Nicks, is still recovering from surgery and an infection
and may not be available for the opening game. Beyond him, the
offensive line is mediocre but should do well enough to give Martin
running room more often than not. The O-line isn’t dominant
enough to control the trenches, so without any big running plays,
Tampa Bay's offensive firepower is limited by the inconsistency
of their quarterback.
The strength of the opposing defense used to be their secondary,
but with recent draft investments made to the defensive line,
it now looks like the Jets are a little front heavy. Because of
the limited passing threat posed by Freeman, however, the defense
will be able to stay more balanced and force the young quarterback
to make plays he likely isn’t capable of making. Tampa Bay
should try to pound the ball in the running game, and as long
as there are only seven men in the box, I would expect to see
moderate success. If Martin is able to break just one long run,
the Jets will likely send an extra man to stop the rush, but at
the expense of the passing game, the Buccaneers should continue
to give the ball to their dynamic young running back.
Projections:
Josh Freeman: 130 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Doug Martin: 80 rush yds, 1 TD / 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 40 rec yds
Mike Williams: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Of all the secondary units to have to face
in his debut game, quarterback Geno Smith has to be dreading the
Buccaneers. The front seven won’t make many sacks, but they
will force enough pressures to allow the secondary to prey on
every mistake made by a quarterback. Throughout the preseason
Smith has appeared overwhelmed by the speed of the NFL and unable
to perform at the necessary level. He isn’t done any favors
by his options at wide receiver, even at full strength, and there
is reason to doubt that Santonio Holmes, their best receiving
option, may not be able to play immediately.
Smith will face a daunting task with each and every pass attempt
and may be responsible for more points scored by the opposing
defense than he is for his own offense. Tampa Bay made a point
of significantly improving their secondary in the offseason, and
they will be on full display against the rookie Jets quarterback.
The pass rush won’t be overly threatening, but even the
slightest amount of pressure will give the opportunistic secondary
ample chances to create turnovers and affect the outcome of the
game.
Running Game Thoughts: As a mobile quarterback, the best asset
to Smith’s passing game may be his own legs. While designed
quarterback runs should be kept to a minimum, the ability to buy
time or break a run will give him opportunities to contribute
with his feet in ways that he can’t with his arm. Recently
acquired running back Chris Ivory is unproven and has never been
the featured back of his team. In a small sample size his production
is encouraging, but his play during the preseason was less than
stellar; a committee situation is most likely. His backfield counterpart
is Bilal Powell, who is better in the passing game and has looked
like the better back through the preseason. Ivory has more upside
and Powell is currently producing better, but neither should see
much success behind the Jets offensive line. Ivory was brought
in to assume the starting role, but according to the Jets website,
Powell is listed as the starter. Running back Alex Green was signed
this week and may see a handful of touches to spell the two primary
rushers.
Much like their defense, the Tampa Bay offense is strongest in
the back and more susceptible in the front seven. If the offensive
line is able to make any sort of a push against the Buccaneers
defenders, the Jets rushers will find openings and may be able
to make the most of them. Because of the likely deficiencies in
the passing game, I expect to see eight or even nine men in the
box to prevent any rushing success for New York.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 180 pass yds, 4 INTs / 50 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 40 rush yds
Bilal Powell: 50 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Alex Green: 20 rush yds
Stephen Hill: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Jets
6 ^ Top
Giants @ Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: First and
foremost, Eli Manning is still the quarterback in New York, and
many of the receiving options are still in place from last season.
In many ways, the passing game of 2013 should resemble that if
2012, though for the time being Hakeem Nicks is healthy, and that
represents an upgrade over the majority of last year. The biggest
questions come from the offensive line, particularly with regards
to preseason injuries. At full health, the line is mostly serviceable,
but depth concerns will be highlighted if starters are forced
to miss appreciable time. Expect Manning to lead the Giants to
several late-game victories, as he does every year, but don’t
be surprised if he and the entire team go through a particularly
rough stretch plagued with inconsistency.
Against the Cowboys defense, Manning should have ample opportunities
to exploit the weakness of the Dallas secondary. A new defensive
coordinator is switching the team to a base 4-3, and if the preseason
is any indication, the change is for the better. Pass rushers
will challenge the O-line, but under the leadership of their quarterback,
the Giants will see good success through the air.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants suffered a blow to their rushing
attack in the fourth preseason game when backup running back Andre
Brown broke his fibula. The latest reports suggest he’ll
be out ten weeks, but regardless of how long his return takes,
it appears David Wilson will be the principle ball carrier against
the Cowboys. Over the past few years New York has frequently used
two backs in a time share situation, so the absence of Brown will
alter that plan to some extent. Wilson is the quicker running
back, so he’ll see the most success between the 20’s,
though now his red zone carries will likely increase. If he can
avoid the fumbling issues that have affected him in the past,
he’s a quality runner who the Giants can lean on to complement
their passing attack.
Unfortunately for New York, it appears that the Cowboys are built
to defend against the run, and with their new offensive coordinator,
they’re much more proficient at creating turnovers. On the
bright side, the weaker secondary will likely prevent Dallas from
loading the box against the run, and that means that Wilson will
always have a chance to break free for the huge runs for which
he’s become known. All he needs is a seam, and given the
likelihood that Dallas will be sending extra rushers, it’s
entirely possible that he'll find plenty of running room.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 260 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
David Wilson: 60 rush yds / 20 pass yds
Victor Cruz: 90 rec yds, 2 TDs
Hakeem Nicks: 70 rec yds
Brandon Myers 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: This offseason the Cowboys invested heavily
in their quarterback, and he will be at the center of their offense
for the foreseeable future. With a number of receiving weapons
at his disposal, Tony Romo will throw early and often against
the Giants. Wide receiver Dez Bryant is a matchup problem for
any secondary and tight end Jason Witten will exploit the weakness
the Giants have at linebacker. Dallas has a few areas of concern
on the offensive line, but the recent signing of guard Brian Waters
will help to bolster those holes created by injuries. Romo was
highly proficient last year with a number of O-line problems,
so with an intact set of blockers, he ought to only be better
in 2013. Starting the season off against the Giants is an excellent
way for him to break in his new mega contract.
If the Giants can return to their pass-rushing ways, Dallas will
be in a bit of trouble, but luckily for them nothing that New
York did in the preseason suggests they’re any better than
they were at the end of last season. Assuming the Cowboys' offensive
line can neutralize much of the pass rush, there isn’t much
behind the front four that should stand in the way of a big passing
game from Romo and his receiving options.
Running Game Thoughts: On the ground Dallas has one of the most
dynamic running backs in the league, but he does come with durability
concerns. Thankfully, this is the first game of the season and
DeMarco Murray will be as healthy on Sunday as he’ll be
all year. New York has impressive potential on their defensive
line if they can live up to it, but if they can’t contain
the running game, Dallas will find plenty of success at the second
and third levels of defenders. I anticipate that the Cowboys will
run enough to keep the defense honest but that the greatest gains
will come through the air.
Defense hasn’t been the strong point in New York for several
seasons, especially with respect to earned yards, but they’ve
usually come up with timely turnovers—nearly the epitome
of the “bend but don’t break” philosophy. Eventually
the odds will even out and all that will be left is their giving
up lots of yardage, especially to high-powered passing attacks
that have running backs with elite talent, much like the Cowboys.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 350 pass yds, 4 TDs, 1 INT
DeMarco Murray: 80 rush yds / 30 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Miles Austin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants
27 ^ Top
Eagles @ Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The great
Chip Kelly experiment begins against a dangerous pass rush and
a weak secondary. If tempo truly is the name of the game then
the Redskins will have a hard time getting to the quarterback,
meaning Michael Vick will throw quick passes on short routes up
and down the field. Longer routes and deeper drop backs will present
more of a challenge, but Philadelphia has the offensive line to
stymie most defensive pressures. I expect to see DeSean Jackson
heavily targeted and running backs LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown
getting involved in pass catching. Tight ends will be the difference
in the game because of the openings that are likely to present
themselves in the Washington secondary.
Philadelphia got a little lucky with how injuries and suspensions
will affect the Redskins for Week 1. Several starting defensive
linemen are unavailable to play, making their pass rush less dominant,
but the linebackers are at full strength and will be a force to
reckon with. Because of the D-line absences, I anticipate a higher
blitz percentage, which will open up the secondary to more of
an aerial assault. Michael Vick has the physical talents to take
advantage of the new offense and use it against a Redskins defense
that won’t be at full strength.
Running Game Thoughts: Using the University of Oregon playbook
(circa 2012) as a reference, I have my doubts that the new offense
will work at the NFL level, at least as far as the running packages
are concerned. That being said, I feel the Eagles offensive line
could be one of the best in the league and should provide a number
of rushing opportunities for LeSean McCoy against the Redskins.
Working sideline to sideline is acceptable at the college level,
but professional defenses are too fast and too skilled to let
anyone get away with that. McCoy will see success after breaking
through the first level of defenders and then making linebackers
and defensive backs miss in the open field. New collegiate-style
wrinkles will give the offense added dimensions in the running
game, but at their core, Philadelphia needs a simple and overpowering
rush.
Due to the absences along the defensive line, the Eagles O-line
should be able to create running lanes for McCoy. The skilled
Redskins linebackers will be active in defending the run and the
pass and may be caught out of position on occasion. It will be
up to Philadelphia ball carriers to exploit those times when holes
open and they have only one man to beat for six points. The Eagles
are built to excel in the open field, and Washington does not
have the skill in the secondary necessary to allow them to stack
the box against the rush.
Projections:
Michael Vick: 270 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT / 40 rush yds, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 130 rushing, 1 TD / 30 rec yds
Bryce Brown: 20 rush yds / 40 rec yds, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Most of the key pieces in the Redskins passing
game enter 2013 coming off of injuries, but all have reportedly
healed and are set to hit the field at full speed. Quarterback
Robert Griffin III is undoubtedly the star, and he should shine
brightly against the Eagles. He didn’t play in any preseason
games, so I expect him to be a bit rusty, probably making a few
questionable decisions and likely accounting for a turnover or
two. His offensive line should protect well and his receiving
targets ought to see openings in the Philadelphia secondary, so
the success of the passing game will be entirely dependent on
Griffin and his ability to bounce back from ACL surgery.
All four starting defensive backs from last year have been replaced
in one way or another, so the Eagles are likely not as terrible
against the pass as they were previously. However, the preseason
suggests they aren’t markedly better either. The front seven
has a few talented pass rushers, but the Redskins O-line should
be up for that task. Turnovers and defensive stops will come primarily
from Washington mistakes and not from Philadelphia making outstanding
plays.
Running Game Thoughts: Coming off of surgery, Griffin should
see very few designed runs, meaning running back Alfred Morris
will be the workhorse on the ground. He’s more than talented
enough to handle it, and running behind the Washington offensive
line makes him even better. Only a small portion of his success
came from the read-option with RG3, so having that portion of
his game reduced won’t have much effect on his totals. Philadelphia
will be focused on not giving up big passing plays, and that will
open up things on the ground for Morris to exploit.
The glaring insufficiency the Eagles have is their back four,
so much of what they’ll have to do defensively will be protecting
against big passing plays; this of course will open holes underneath
and in the running game. The safest course of action would be
to run Morris as often as possible, but I suspect everyone in
Washington will be eager to see how Griffin performs in the passing
game. The Eagles won’t provide much resistance defensively
in either phase of the game, but they will take advantage of any
mistakes that present themselves.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs / 20 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 110 rush yds, 2 TDs / 20 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Fred Davis: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Eagles 35, Redskins
31 ^ Top
Patriots @ Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: With Tom
Brady at quarterback there isn’t much concern over who lines
up as a pass catcher. A number of circumstances have led to the
preseason being central in determining several Week 1 starters,
and tight end Zach Sudfeld and wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins
are the two biggest beneficiaries of that practice time. Brady
traditionally spreads the ball around to whoever is open and rarely
shows a preference between receivers; whoever has his confidence
gets targets, and players without his confidence don’t see
the field often. Look for the Patriots to throw passes to all
eligible players at some point during the game and to use a variety
of different offensive sets to create mismatches, just like always.
Stopping Brady is hard enough with an elite defense, and the
Bills are at best mediocre. They have highly talented individuals
at a handful of positions, but as a whole the unit is weak and
the depth behind the starters is miserable. On top of that, the
Patriots are returning all of their offensive linemen and their
entire coaching staff, so they’re likely going to be even
better than they were last season. I don’t see Buffalo slowing
down Brady at all.
Running Game Thoughts: This portion of the New England offense
is usually overlooked, but the amount of times they rush and the
proficiency with which they do it should not be ignored. Running
back Stevan Ridley is a monster between the tackles, the offensive
line is wonderfully talented, and Brady audibles into or out of
plays to give the offense the best chance of success. I expect
the contest against Buffalo to get out of hand and for Ridley
and backup Shane Vereen to see a higher number of touches than
usual as New England works the clock and holds onto the ball.
Most of Buffalo’s defensive focus will be on stopping Brady
and his multitude of receiving options, so rushing lanes should
be plentiful through the defensive line and linebackers. Unfortunately
for the Bills, they’ll be caught on the losing end of a
cat-and-mouse game, between trying to stop the pass and then trying
to stop the run. Play calling and changes made at the line of
scrimmage will make for a long day for the Buffalo defenders,
who will ultimately not be able to stop either facet of the New
England attack and will surrender yardage through the air and
on the ground.
Projections:
Tom
Brady: 210 pass yds, 4 TDs
Stevan
Ridley: 70 rush yds, 1 TD / 10 rec yds
Shane
Vereen: 70 rush yds / 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Danny
Amendola: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenbrell
Thompkins: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach
Sudfeld: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterbacks don’t fare particularly
well in the NFL, and having to open the season against Coach Belichick
and the Patriots only makes that situation worse. E.J. Manuel
comes into the league following a successful college career, but
his limited time at the professional level has been predictably
uninspiring. He picked up a minor injury and didn’t play
in the final two preseason games, so his first real NFL experience
will be at full speed on Sunday afternoon. New England has an
improved defense, and the heart of it will be lined up with their
hands on the ground just waiting to attack at the snap of the
ball. I don’t see much hope in Manuel putting together a
good first game, and the majority of his gains will come on short
routes and check-down passes to his running back.
Every year the Patriots roll out new blitz schemes and defensive
plans to find ways of getting pressure on the quarterback. Their
defense is built on turnovers and not on preventing yardage, so
while Manuel may see small flashes of production, it will likely
only be a matter of time until he makes a mistake and gives up
the ball. New England got better on defense as last year went
on, especially against the pass, and if that carries over into
the first game of this year, Buffalo will have a difficult time
scoring points, even if they can move the ball down the field.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite having a tragically poor passing
offense for the past handful of years, the Bills have still be
able to approach statistically average offensive production, primarily
due to their ability to run the ball. Once again, running back
C.J. Spiller will be the focal point of the offense, particularly
on the ground but also through the air. Between the tackles he’s
a beast, and out in space he is one of the most elusive players
in the league. Barring some sort of rookie quarterback miracle,
the offensive production in Buffalo will mirror the production
of Spiller; others will be involved of course, but he’s
the most gifted player on the roster and the only one capable
of carrying the team toward success.
Against New England, however, even the dynamic Spiller will have
his work cut out for him. New England's strength is at the front,
and Spiller will be facing a front seven that is looking for him
to get the ball. I expect his game totals to be impressive, but
his averages will not be. He will need to touch the ball frequently
to squeeze out any sort of production, though once in a while
he’ll find a seam and break it for a huge gain.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 140 yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs / 30 rush yds
C.J. Spiller: 120 rush yds, 1 TD / 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Johnson: 60 rec yds
Prediction: Patriots 48, Bills
17 ^ Top
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