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Inside the Matchup
Conference Championships
1/19/12

By: Damon Autry | Sal Marcoccio | Chris Eakin | Kyle Smith




 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Autry 47 18 72.3
2 Marcoccio 46 20 69.7
3 Smith 43 23 65.2
4 Eakin 39 28 58.2

Ravens @ Patriots - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco is no Tom Brady. In fact, he’s not even T.J. Yates in some respects. Flacco was out produced by the rookie Texan in yardage, 184-176 in their playoff matchup. Flacco and the Ravens were unable to get the ball downfield to their big playmaker Torrey Smith last week in large part because of the pass rush and coverage skills of Johnathan Joseph. What Flacco did was enough because he didn’t turn the ball over. The Patriots aren’t as talented on defense as the Texans but they have a more dynamic offense. There is every likelihood the Ravens will need more points to defeat them. The outcome of this game depends on Flacco passing more aggressively, while maintaining his mistake free play.

New England will play a bend but don’t break shell, forcing the Ravens to execute consistent drives. Flacco will have more time to look downfield with less pressure. Anquan Boldin and the two TEs will be key, working the holes in the Patriot zones. While the Patriots are 31st in passing yards allowed, they have done well allowing 18 points per game over the second half of the season. They stiffen in the red zone and Flacco will need to raise his game and get creative play calling to avoid settling for field goals.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice was held in check by the Texans defense last week. The Ravens will need more than last week’s 60 yards and 2.9 yards per carry this week against New England. Rice will face the Patriots 17th ranked run defense in yards allowed. The Patriots have actually been tougher as the season wore on, culminating in holding the number one ranked Bronco rushing attack and Willis McGahee to 76 yards, and the Broncos as a whole to 144 yards. If Rice can establish himself early, the Patriot linebackers will have to focus on stopping him, which will open passing lanes for Flacco. Rice is critical to the Ravens sustaining drives and keeping Brady off the field.

Joe Flacco: 175 yds passing 2 TD / 2 INT
Torrey Smith: 65 yds receiving
Anquan Boldin: 80 yds receiving /
Ed Dickson: 45 yds receiving / 1 TD
Ray Rice: 115 yds rushing / 30 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The central question to this game is can the Ravens defense slow down the juggernaut Patriot pass attack. The Ravens are 40 yards better than Denver in passing yards allowed per game. Baltimore is very good on the back end, anchored by Ed Reed who once again made a game changing play in the Ravens win last week. Reed versus Brady is a matchup of two of the best to ever play their respective positions. The problem for Reed is he can’t be everywhere and the Patriots have many weapons. No one has been able to stop Rob Gronkowski who scored three times last week after setting the all-time single season record for touchdowns for a tight end. If the Ravens double him, then they can also move Welker and Aaron Hernandez all over the field. Even Deion Branch scored last week to give the Ravens something to think about downfield. The Ravens have an excellent defense that can keep even great offenses in check, but the only teams that have shown the ability to consistently slow Brady down are those capable of getting pressure and collapsing the pocket. With Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, they have some talented playmakers, but they have not been very good at getting pressure out of their base defense. This will spell doom for them. If they blitz it leaves man coverage and Brady will have the advantage. If they just rush their base defense, and don’t get pressure, Brady will have plenty of time to scan the field and pick them apart. Their only path to victory is pressure from their front four or five.

Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots use the running game in many different styles. They have BenJarvus Green-Ellis for power running, Danny Woodhead for screen and draws, and Steven Ridley that can do a bit of both. Last week they showed a new wrinkle for the Ravens to concern themselves with when they moved tight end Aaron Hernandez into the backfield. By doing so, they can use him as a lead blocker, a receiver out of the backfield that can direct demand man-coverage by opposing linebackers, and now as a rushing threat. Hernandez ended up leading the Patriots in rushing with 61 yards on just five carries, almost matching the Broncos McGahee and topping the option running Tebow. I don’t see Hernandez posting those rushing totals again, but the fact that he was established as a runner will help set the mismatch of using him as a receiver out of the same formation. In the end, the Patriots are on a roll, and too diverse and dynamic for the Ravens defense.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 320 yds passing / 3 TDs / 1 INT
Deion Branch: 60 yds receiving
Wes Welker: 70 yds receiving
Aaron Hernandez: 45 yds receiving / 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 85 yards / 2 TDs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 35 yds rushing

Prediction: Patriots 31, Ravens 20 ^ Top

Giants @ 49ers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Hakeem Nicks had a “down” season based on the expectations of those of us in the fantasy football community, but it was still a fine season (76-1192-7) based on any reasonable expectations. However, in the first two rounds of the playoffs he’s exceeded the expectations of even the most unreasonable supporters. In those two games Nicks has totaled 13 catches for 280 yards and 4 TDs. Nicks has been nearly unstoppable. Eli Manning was one of 5 QBs that put up an MVP caliber season in 2011 and has continued his high level of play throughout the playoffs. Manning has been amazingly cool in pressure situations and led the Giants to several comeback wins and is now one game away from his second Super Bowl. He nearly led the Giants back from a 4th quarter deficit in Week 10 of the regular season when the Giants were in San Francisco. Manning finished that game with 311 yards passing and 2 TDs (with 2 Ints.), but fell short on the scoreboard as the Niners held tough in the red zone to close out the game. It was Nicks who grabbed one of those TDs and the suddenly resurgent Mario Manningham who caught the other. Manningham has grabbed 2 TDs in the playoffs thus far, as teams are paying close attention to regular season breakout star Victor Cruz (1,536 yards, 9 TDs) leaving Mario in single coverage. Cruz has played well in the playoffs but the efficient Manning has been finding better options as he scans the field.

The Forty Niners were one of the league’s top defenses all season, but weren’t unbeatable through the air. They were ranked mid pack against the pass, allowing 230.9 ypg and 20 passing TDs during the regular season. The pass defense was torched badly by Drew Brees and the Saints last week, but that’s not exactly a damning result as Brees did break Dan Marino’s single season yardage record this year. Between defensive end Justin Smith and rookie Aldon Smith, San Francisco can generate a fierce pass rush. The team did manage to knock Drew Brees around at least, in a way that few teams did all season, which forced a few turnovers. In the past Manning was the type of QB that rattled easily under pressure, but the younger Manning has grown up in recent seasons and will likely take a licking and keep on ticking (hopefully he doesn’t lose his Citizen Watch endorsement because of my usage of a competitor’s catch phrase).

Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw was the unsung hero of last week’s game, as he made the key run – where he smarty found a way to get out of bounds – right before halftime which set up the Hail Mary completion between Manning and Nicks. He gained 63 tough yards last week with many of them coming at key times. His bruising backfield mate, Brandon Jacobs, also had a nice day, sealing the game with a long TD run in the 4th quarter. Jacobs doesn’t have the surprising speed anymore, but he’s still difficult to bring down with a head of steam. His tough running style will be necessary in order to try and wear down and break the best run-stopping defense in the league. The resurgent running game has been a key part of the Giants’ late season trek into and through the playoffs and it cannot stop this week despite the extremely tough matchup.

The Niners were the top run defense in the NFL in 2011, allowing a meager 77.3 ypg and incredibly only 3 rushing TDs on the season. Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are relentless tackling machines and the Giants TEs and FBs will need to help try and disrupt the pair if the running game has any chance to succeed.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 335 yds passing 3 TDs / 1 Int.
Hakeem Nicks: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Victor Cruz: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 60 yds receiving
Jake Ballard: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw: 55 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 20 yards rushing, 1 TD / 5 yards receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Alex Smith is coming off his best game as a professional to date and it couldn’t have come at a bigger moment. Smith was sensational in twice leading the Forty-Niners on long fourth quarter TD drives to take back the lead in the game, including a 14-yard TD strike to TE Vernon Davis with 9 seconds left in the game. He also earlier ran down the sideline on a bootleg for a 28-yard TD with 2:11 left in the game and the Niners trailing. He finished the game with 299 yards and 3 passing TDs to go along with the aforementioned rushing TD. Not bad for a game manager. For most of the season that’s all that Alex Smith had been asked to be, a QB that controlled the game and didn’t turn the ball over. He did it very well. At the end of the day, last week’s game is likely to be an aberration, but it’s nice for Niner fans to know Smith can do it if he needs to lead his team back this week. TE Vernon Davis who is a physical specimen with an incredible size to speed ratio was the star of the offense for San Francisco, catching 7 balls for 180 yards and 2 scores. He was no match for the New Orleans linebackers and safeties and will prove to be a difficult matchup this week as well. Michael Crabtree grabbed the other TD catch for the 49ers. The young wideout has been a strong player down the stretch once he recovered from early season injuries.

For most of the season the Giants’ secondary was in disarray. They have been much better since Week 15 of the season when DC Perry Fewell decided to abandon the complicated schemes he was trying to run and simplified the defensive coverages. Once Justin Tuck finally got healthy, the Giants’ vaunted pass rush stepped up big time as well. Last week with DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora attacking from the outside and Tuck from up the middle the Giants harassed the league’s likely MVP Aaron Rodgers into an uncharacteristically inconsistent game. Rodgers turned the ball over and missed more receivers than usual and never looked comfortable in the pocket. Alex Smith has matured as a QB, but he still may have some difficulties when under heavy pressure this week.

Running Game Thoughts: At 28 years old, Frank Gore has taken a pounding year after year, but the old horse is still holding up. Gore looked quite fresh for an aging back playing in the team’s 17th game of the season last week. He gained 89 yards on 13 carries and showed some burst that many thought may be lost. The Niners have a nice change of pace back in rookie Kendall Hunter that has some real nice quickness and the ability to make tacklers miss. His pass catching abilities will help keep the Giant pass rushers honest as he can take a swing or screen pass to the house. The Niners have a fine run blocking line and will look to slow down the pace of the game controlling the trenches and pounding Gore into the middle of the Giants’ line. The team does not want to get into its second straight shootout, as that has not been their preferred method of success in 2011.

The Giants’ run defense allowed 121.3 ypg and 15 rushing TDs on the ground during the regular season. Their front seven is more suited for getting to the QB than for stopping the run, but at times they can look like an effective unit. Michael Boley has been the key in recent weeks as the unit looked far worse when he was out of the lineup. The Giants were able to keep Frank Gore at bay during their Week 10 contest, holding him to zero yards rushing on 6 carries before he left the game with an injury. Kendall Hunter was able to score on a 17-yard TD run against them however in what was likely his best game of the season.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 205 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 20 yards rushing
Michael Crabtree: 65 yds receiving, 1 TDs
Kyle Williams: 20 yds receiving
Vernon Davis: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Frank Gore: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
Kendall Hunter: 25 yards rushing / 35 yards receiving

Prediction: Giants 31, 49ers 27 ^ Top