Predictions - YTD
|
Rk |
Staffer |
W |
L |
% |
1 |
Autry |
47 |
18 |
72.3 |
2 |
Marcoccio |
46 |
20 |
69.7 |
3 |
Smith |
43 |
23 |
65.2 |
4 |
Eakin |
39 |
28 |
58.2 |
|
Ravens
@ Patriots - (Eakin)
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco is no Tom Brady. In fact, he’s
not even T.J. Yates in some respects. Flacco was out produced
by the rookie Texan in yardage, 184-176 in their playoff matchup.
Flacco and the Ravens were unable to get the ball downfield to
their big playmaker Torrey Smith last week in large part because
of the pass rush and coverage skills of Johnathan Joseph. What
Flacco did was enough because he didn’t turn the ball over.
The Patriots aren’t as talented on defense as the Texans
but they have a more dynamic offense. There is every likelihood
the Ravens will need more points to defeat them. The outcome of
this game depends on Flacco passing more aggressively, while maintaining
his mistake free play.
New England will play a bend but don’t break shell, forcing
the Ravens to execute consistent drives. Flacco will have more
time to look downfield with less pressure. Anquan Boldin and the
two TEs will be key, working the holes in the Patriot zones. While
the Patriots are 31st in passing yards allowed, they have done
well allowing 18 points per game over the second half of the season.
They stiffen in the red zone and Flacco will need to raise his
game and get creative play calling to avoid settling for field
goals.
Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice was held in check by the Texans
defense last week. The Ravens will need more than last week’s
60 yards and 2.9 yards per carry this week against New England.
Rice will face the Patriots 17th ranked run defense in yards allowed.
The Patriots have actually been tougher as the season wore on,
culminating in holding the number one ranked Bronco rushing attack
and Willis McGahee to 76 yards, and the Broncos as a whole to
144 yards. If Rice can establish himself early, the Patriot linebackers
will have to focus on stopping him, which will open passing lanes
for Flacco. Rice is critical to the Ravens sustaining drives and
keeping Brady off the field.
Joe Flacco: 175 yds passing 2 TD / 2 INT
Torrey Smith: 65 yds receiving
Anquan Boldin: 80 yds receiving /
Ed
Dickson: 45 yds receiving / 1 TD
Ray Rice: 115 yds rushing / 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The central question to this game is can
the Ravens defense slow down the juggernaut Patriot pass attack.
The Ravens are 40 yards better than Denver in passing yards allowed
per game. Baltimore is very good on the back end, anchored by
Ed Reed who once again made a game changing play in the Ravens
win last week. Reed versus Brady is a matchup of two of the best
to ever play their respective positions. The problem for Reed
is he can’t be everywhere and the Patriots have many weapons.
No one has been able to stop Rob Gronkowski who scored three times
last week after setting the all-time single season record for
touchdowns for a tight end. If the Ravens double him, then they
can also move Welker and Aaron Hernandez all over the field. Even
Deion Branch scored last week to give the Ravens something to
think about downfield. The Ravens have an excellent defense that
can keep even great offenses in check, but the only teams that
have shown the ability to consistently slow Brady down are those
capable of getting pressure and collapsing the pocket. With Terrell
Suggs and Haloti Ngata, they have some talented playmakers, but
they have not been very good at getting pressure out of their
base defense. This will spell doom for them. If they blitz it
leaves man coverage and Brady will have the advantage. If they
just rush their base defense, and don’t get pressure, Brady
will have plenty of time to scan the field and pick them apart.
Their only path to victory is pressure from their front four or
five.
Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots use the running game in many
different styles. They have BenJarvus Green-Ellis for power running,
Danny Woodhead for screen and draws, and Steven Ridley that can
do a bit of both. Last week they showed a new wrinkle for the
Ravens to concern themselves with when they moved tight end Aaron
Hernandez into the backfield. By doing so, they can use him as
a lead blocker, a receiver out of the backfield that can direct
demand man-coverage by opposing linebackers, and now as a rushing
threat. Hernandez ended up leading the Patriots in rushing with
61 yards on just five carries, almost matching the Broncos McGahee
and topping the option running Tebow. I don’t see Hernandez
posting those rushing totals again, but the fact that he was established
as a runner will help set the mismatch of using him as a receiver
out of the same formation. In the end, the Patriots are on a roll,
and too diverse and dynamic for the Ravens defense.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 320 yds passing / 3 TDs / 1 INT
Deion Branch: 60 yds receiving
Wes Welker: 70 yds receiving
Aaron Hernandez: 45 yds receiving / 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 85 yards / 2 TDs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 35 yds rushing
Prediction: Patriots 31, Ravens 20 ^ Top
Giants
@ 49ers - (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Hakeem Nicks had a “down” season
based on the expectations of those of us in the fantasy football
community, but it was still a fine season (76-1192-7) based on
any reasonable expectations. However, in the first two rounds
of the playoffs he’s exceeded the expectations of even the
most unreasonable supporters. In those two games Nicks has totaled
13 catches for 280 yards and 4 TDs. Nicks has been nearly unstoppable.
Eli Manning was one of 5 QBs that put up an MVP caliber season
in 2011 and has continued his high level of play throughout the
playoffs. Manning has been amazingly cool in pressure situations
and led the Giants to several comeback wins and is now one game
away from his second Super Bowl. He nearly led the Giants back
from a 4th quarter deficit in Week 10 of the regular season when
the Giants were in San Francisco. Manning finished that game with
311 yards passing and 2 TDs (with 2 Ints.), but fell short on
the scoreboard as the Niners held tough in the red zone to close
out the game. It was Nicks who grabbed one of those TDs and the
suddenly resurgent Mario Manningham who caught the other. Manningham
has grabbed 2 TDs in the playoffs thus far, as teams are paying
close attention to regular season breakout star Victor Cruz (1,536
yards, 9 TDs) leaving Mario in single coverage. Cruz has played
well in the playoffs but the efficient Manning has been finding
better options as he scans the field.
The Forty Niners were one of the league’s top defenses
all season, but weren’t unbeatable through the air. They
were ranked mid pack against the pass, allowing 230.9 ypg and
20 passing TDs during the regular season. The pass defense was
torched badly by Drew Brees and the Saints last week, but that’s
not exactly a damning result as Brees did break Dan Marino’s
single season yardage record this year. Between defensive end
Justin Smith and rookie Aldon Smith, San Francisco can generate
a fierce pass rush. The team did manage to knock Drew Brees around
at least, in a way that few teams did all season, which forced
a few turnovers. In the past Manning was the type of QB that rattled
easily under pressure, but the younger Manning has grown up in
recent seasons and will likely take a licking and keep on ticking
(hopefully he doesn’t lose his Citizen Watch endorsement
because of my usage of a competitor’s catch phrase).
Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw was the unsung hero of
last week’s game, as he made the key run – where he
smarty found a way to get out of bounds – right before halftime
which set up the Hail Mary completion between Manning and Nicks.
He gained 63 tough yards last week with many of them coming at
key times. His bruising backfield mate, Brandon Jacobs, also had
a nice day, sealing the game with a long TD run in the 4th quarter.
Jacobs doesn’t have the surprising speed anymore, but he’s
still difficult to bring down with a head of steam. His tough
running style will be necessary in order to try and wear down
and break the best run-stopping defense in the league. The resurgent
running game has been a key part of the Giants’ late season
trek into and through the playoffs and it cannot stop this week
despite the extremely tough matchup.
The Niners were the top run defense in the NFL in 2011, allowing
a meager 77.3 ypg and incredibly only 3 rushing TDs on the season.
Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are relentless tackling machines
and the Giants TEs and FBs will need to help try and disrupt the
pair if the running game has any chance to succeed.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 335 yds passing 3 TDs / 1 Int.
Hakeem Nicks: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Victor Cruz: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 60 yds receiving
Jake Ballard: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ahmad
Bradshaw: 55 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 20 yards rushing, 1 TD / 5 yards receiving
Passing Game Thoughts: Alex Smith is coming off his best game
as a professional to date and it couldn’t have come at a
bigger moment. Smith was sensational in twice leading the Forty-Niners
on long fourth quarter TD drives to take back the lead in the
game, including a 14-yard TD strike to TE Vernon Davis with 9
seconds left in the game. He also earlier ran down the sideline
on a bootleg for a 28-yard TD with 2:11 left in the game and the
Niners trailing. He finished the game with 299 yards and 3 passing
TDs to go along with the aforementioned rushing TD. Not bad for
a game manager. For most of the season that’s all that Alex
Smith had been asked to be, a QB that controlled the game and
didn’t turn the ball over. He did it very well. At the end
of the day, last week’s game is likely to be an aberration,
but it’s nice for Niner fans to know Smith can do it if
he needs to lead his team back this week. TE Vernon Davis who
is a physical specimen with an incredible size to speed ratio
was the star of the offense for San Francisco, catching 7 balls
for 180 yards and 2 scores. He was no match for the New Orleans
linebackers and safeties and will prove to be a difficult matchup
this week as well. Michael Crabtree grabbed the other TD catch
for the 49ers. The young wideout has been a strong player down
the stretch once he recovered from early season injuries.
For most of the season the Giants’ secondary was in disarray.
They have been much better since Week 15 of the season when DC
Perry Fewell decided to abandon the complicated schemes he was
trying to run and simplified the defensive coverages. Once Justin
Tuck finally got healthy, the Giants’ vaunted pass rush
stepped up big time as well. Last week with DEs Jason Pierre-Paul
and Osi Umenyiora attacking from the outside and Tuck from up
the middle the Giants harassed the league’s likely MVP Aaron
Rodgers into an uncharacteristically inconsistent game. Rodgers
turned the ball over and missed more receivers than usual and
never looked comfortable in the pocket. Alex Smith has matured
as a QB, but he still may have some difficulties when under heavy
pressure this week.
Running Game Thoughts: At 28 years old, Frank Gore has taken
a pounding year after year, but the old horse is still holding
up. Gore looked quite fresh for an aging back playing in the team’s
17th game of the season last week. He gained 89 yards on 13 carries
and showed some burst that many thought may be lost. The Niners
have a nice change of pace back in rookie Kendall Hunter that
has some real nice quickness and the ability to make tacklers
miss. His pass catching abilities will help keep the Giant pass
rushers honest as he can take a swing or screen pass to the house.
The Niners have a fine run blocking line and will look to slow
down the pace of the game controlling the trenches and pounding
Gore into the middle of the Giants’ line. The team does
not want to get into its second straight shootout, as that has
not been their preferred method of success in 2011.
The Giants’ run defense allowed 121.3 ypg and 15 rushing
TDs on the ground during the regular season. Their front seven
is more suited for getting to the QB than for stopping the run,
but at times they can look like an effective unit. Michael Boley
has been the key in recent weeks as the unit looked far worse
when he was out of the lineup. The Giants were able to keep Frank
Gore at bay during their Week 10 contest, holding him to zero
yards rushing on 6 carries before he left the game with an injury.
Kendall Hunter was able to score on a 17-yard TD run against them
however in what was likely his best game of the season.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 205 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 20 yards rushing
Michael Crabtree: 65 yds receiving, 1 TDs
Kyle Williams: 20 yds receiving
Vernon Davis: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Frank Gore: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
Kendall Hunter: 25 yards rushing / 35 yards receiving
Prediction: Giants 31, 49ers 27 ^ Top
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