Lions @ Giants - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Shaun Hill has filled in more than adequately for the injured Matthew Stafford and will get another chance to lead the Lions this week. Hill doesn’t have Stafford’s strong arm, but he is a savvy veteran that has been smart enough to spread the ball around to the Lions diverse group of pass catching options, with good results. Calvin Johnson has been a good red-zone option, but his owners likely would like to see him get more involved. Unfortunately he relies more on his great athleticism and downfield speed to get open, rather than running sophisticated shorter routes that Hill is more comfortable with. On the other hand TEs Tony Sheffler and Brandon Pettigrew have thrived under the Hill lead offense and both have been decent starting options for the TE slot.

The Giants’ pass defense has made Jay Cutler and Matt Shaub look pedestrian the last two weeks. Cutler never stood a chance as he was sacked nine times in the first half and while Shaub was able to stay upright a little more often (only sacked three times) he was pressured often and was generally ineffective (196 yards with an interception). Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are playing like they did back in their respective heydays, allowing the Giants secondary to look better than they probably are.

Running Game Thoughts: Jahvid Best has shown the dynamic cuts and speed that made him a star at Cal on many occasions this season. He has also struggled at times behind the subpar Detroit o-line. While Best is a good inside runner due to his vision and footwork, he doesn’t break many tackles and that’s a problem as he’s often met by tacklers in the backfield. At times though, he looks like he could be the second most dynamic back in the game behind Chris Johnson. The Lions need to try and get him out in space as much as possible.

The Giants held the NFL’s leading rusher, Arian Foster, to 25 yards rushing last week. On the season they have allowed 98.6 ypg and 4 TDs on the ground. They have fared better against bigger stronger backs (D’Angelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte) than they have fared against smaller quicker backs (Joe Addai and Chris Johnson) though, so they may have some trouble dealing with the rookie runner this week.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 205 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Calvin Johnson: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 20 yds receiving
Tony Scheffler: 55 yds receiving
Brandon Pettigrew: 30 yds receiving
Jahvid Best: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has found his new Plaxico Burris in second year receiver Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is developing into one of the best WRs in the game, as he runs great routes, can get deep and is sensational after the catch. He does lose his concentration on occasion and therefore drops some easy balls though. Last year’s security blanket, Steve Smith, has now become second fiddle to Nicks but is still a valuable NFL and fantasy commodity. As a master route runner, Smith is a clutch third down option that is still capable of having his big games.

It could be another big day for Eli, as he faces the 26th ranked pass defense after feasting on the 32nd ranked pass defense last week. Detroit is allowing 235.4 ypg and 8 TDs on the season. While you may be tempted to say “same old Lions”, one area where they have improved tremendously is that they can now put some pressure on opposing QBs. The team has 14 sacks on the season after adding rookie NT Ndamkung Suh and veteran DE Kyle Vanden Bosh this offseason, two players whose motor never stops.

Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw has run really hard in 2010, showing great effort all season. His use of his deceptive strength and stunning moves to always gain positive yardage, has even impressed the man whose job he took at the season’s start. Brandon Jacobs recently stated that some of Bradshaw’s runs where he seems to get 4 yards from absolutely nothing have left him amazed on the sidelines, even admitting that “I can’t do that”. When you are able to make Jacobs humble, you must be doing something right.

The Giants will be able to choose how they wish to attack the Lions defense at the New Meadowlands Stadium this week, likely meeting little resistance with whichever path they choose as the Lions are also one of the worst run defenses in the league. They are the 27th ranked pass defense, allowing 133.2 ypg and 5 TDs on the ground in 2010.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 70 yds receiving
Mario Manningham: 30 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Prediction: Giants 24 Lions 17 ^ Top

Ravens @ Patriots - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has built on his first two seasons leading the Ravens to a 4-1 record including a come from behind victory on the road against division rival Pittsburgh. Anqaun Boldin has been a successful offseason acquisition and has given Flacco that “go to” target that he has lacked the last two seasons – with apologies to the very under-rated Derrick Mason. Boldin is a tough receiver that has superb run after the catch ability and has helped draw attention away from Mason and TE Todd Heap allowing the former to rejuvenate what seemed to be a career in serious decline. The other offseason acquisition, TJ Houshmanzadeh, hasn’t been a major part of the offense but did catch the game winning TD in the waning seconds of the aforementioned victory over Pittsburgh. The Patriots secondary has struggled all season, but have especially struggled while defending big physical WRs like Braylon Edwards, Steve Johnson and Brandon Marshall in recent weeks, so look for Anquan Boldin to cause the Patriots some fits this week.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record in this weekly feature, the Pats start a very inexperienced pair of corners, and second year player Darius Butler and rookie Devin McCourty have struggled after a decent effort in Week 1. Young inexperienced QBs Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne have lit up the unit in recent weeks and Flacco may likely be the best QB they have faced so far. Expecting the Pats pass defense to shut down the Ravens improved passing game, may be asking for a bit too much.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice is the complete package. He doesn’t have elite top end speed, but it’s more than adequate to allow him to make big plays and he’s also a tough inside runner despite his “smallish” stature, due to his compact running style, hips that are on a swivel and his deceptive strength. He’s also been the most dangerous running back catching passes out of the backfield since the beginning of last season. Willis MaGahee, who lost his starting gig to Rice last season, reinvented himself to become one of the top goal-line vultures in the league. The Ravens love to establish the running game and should try and get Rice and MaGahee going early despite having the bigger advantage in the passing game.

The Baltimore o-line is one of the best in the business and will need to handle the tough New England front seven in order to come into New England and leave with a “W”. The Pats are allowing 112.3 ypg and only 1 TD on the ground through their first four contests and are receiving big seasons from their young talents like linebackers Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich and safety Patrick Chung. If the Pats can make the Ravens one dimensional by taking away the run, they should have enough offense of their own to stay in the game, despite their beleaguered pass defense.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 yds passing 2 TDs
Anquan Boldin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Derrick Mason: 40 yds receiving
Todd Heap: 55 yds receiving
Ray Rice: 85 yds rushing / 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 20 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady lost a future Hall of Famer this week, but luckily he loves his new toys, namely the pair of rookie TEs that Pats drafted this spring. Rob Gronkowski is being used as a nice red zone option and Aaron Hernandez is being used as a hybrid slot WR ala Dallas Clark. Hernandez, surprisingly, is leading the Patriots in receiving yards and is a smooth open field runner. Randy Moss’ targets (which were surprisingly not many) should go to second year wide receivers Brandon Tate and the newly re-acquired Deion Branch. Tate has excelled as a kick returner showing an incredible second gear and could be a big weapon now that he’ll see more time in the passing game. Branch hasn’t been the same since he left New England but perhaps the trade back will revitalize him. It will be very interesting to see what becomes of Wes Welker, the premiere possession WR in the league with Moss not being on the field. There are many that believe a great deal of his success was derived from all of the attention that Moss received – I’m personally not sure that was the only reason that the lightning quick and bulldog tough Welker succeeded though. Two weeks ago I stated “Tom Brady is starting to resemble his early days where he had no Moss or Welker and was forced spread the ball around to whichever of his mediocre receiving crew was open” – little did I know that would become even more the case going forward. Expect the Patriots to continue using two TE sets and become a more dink and dunk type offense going forward with only occasional shots downfield.

The Ravens banged up secondary, with safety Ed Reed (on the PUP list), was finally exposed last week by Kyle Orton and the Broncos. Some of the deficiencies in the Ravens’ pass defense may have been covered up during the first four weeks due to the fact that the team faced, Mark Sanchez (with restraints on the play calling), a wounded Carson Palmer, Seneca Wallace and Charlie Batch during those contests. Tom Brady and crew should help further prove that the Ravens No. 4 pass defense ranking just may be a mirage.

Running Game Thoughts: BenJarvis Green-Ellis has thrived as the primary ball carrier in the Pat RB rotation – after Fred Taylor’s injured toe caused him to miss the last two games. It should be noted that Taylor’s status for this week is still questionable despite the bye week and don’t expect much info to be leaked by the Patriots as to his health. Green-Ellis is a decent start unless Taylor is healthy enough to cloud the issue. There’s nothing fancy about Green-Ellis, but he’s a serious downhill runner that falls forward and inflicts punishment on opposing teams.

The Ravens feature one of the best front sevens in football and have only allowed 101.1 yards per game on the ground with 4 TDs in 5 games so far. They are a difficult matchup for most backs, but bear in mind they were eaten up by another no-nonsense down-hill runner in Peyton Hillis earlier this season.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs
Brandon Tate: 40 yds receiving
Wes Welker: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Aaron Hernandez: 80 yds receiving
Fred Taylor: 5 yds rushing
Danny Woodhead: 25 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
BenJarvis Green-Ellis: 90 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Prediction: Patriots 27 Ravens 24 ^ Top

Falcons @ Eagles - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Matt Ryan/Roddy White connection has been one of the more consistent pairings over the last three seasons. Ryan is a poised smart signal caller that knows where his bread is buttered and generally looks to his best weapon, White. Tony Gonzalez isn’t the force that he once was, but is still a solid secondary option in the Atlanta passing game. He works well underneath as Roddy stretches the field and makes a good check down option for Ryan. The passing game has clicked for most of the season and will get starting WR Michael Jenkins back this week. Jenkins’ has never been a real solid fantasy option (and don’t expect that to change), but adding another WR that Ryan can trust will only help the Falcon offense.

The Eagles are allowing 192.4 ypg game and 8 TDs through the air in 2010. Their once feared pass rush has lost some of its bite, but DE Trent Cole is still a man that needs to be accounted for by the Falcons. While CB Asante Samuel is still a dangerous corner it’s his counterpart on the opposite side of the field, Nate Allen, that leads the team with three interceptions.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner ran for 140 yards in a win over the Browns last week, continuing his trend of feasting on poor rushing defenses – while mostly disappearing against tough run defenses (i.e. Pitt and SF in 2010). While that is likely the case for most RBs, the trend is more pronounced with Turner it seems and dates back to his first season in Atlanta, where luckily enough for his owners the team faced a whole lot of bad run defenses.

The Eagles have been a poor rush defense in 2010, ranked 25th as they have allowed 125.8 ypg and 4 TDs on the season. They have been better with MLB Stewart Bradley in the line-up than when he has been out and are likely not as bad as the early season statistics indicate.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 225 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Roddy White: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 45 yds receiving
Tony Gonzalez: 65 yds receiving
Jason Snelling: 35 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Michael Turner: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Eagles’ backup QB, that began the season as the starter before being replaced in Week 1, due to injury, by the backup QB who was then promoted to the role of starting QB based on his performance in that game, should get at least one more start this week. Confused? Well, some suggest that if Kolb keeps playing well and the Eagles keep winning Andy Reid may reinsert him as the starting QB. Oh boy. Kevin Kolb played much better last week than he did in Week 1 or in Week 4 (after he replaced the injured Michael Vick). He didn’t just look to dump off to his RB, but rather attacked down the field a little more. Kolb has left Desean Jackson owners feeling slighted though, as he lacks the ability of Vick to keep plays alive which allows Jackson to get open downfield. Behind the porous Eagles line Kolb has had to get rid of the ball before Jackson gets separation. On the other hand, Maclin and Celek have benefitted from having a more traditional passer under center, since they rely more on running precise shorter routes and Vick is more of an improviser. Got it?

If the Eagles o-line is able to contain John Abraham (4 sacks) giving Kolb a little time, he should be capable of stringing together another nice outing as the Falcons are giving up 223.4 yards and a TD per game through the air.

Running Game Thoughts: Even with a broken rib, LeSean McCoy continues to run with some authority and get the job done. He surprisingly has 5 rushing TDs on the season, when many people predicted he would lose the goal-line carries to bruiser back Mike Bell (who was traded to Cleveland this week). He is a dynamic runner with adequate speed and good hands in the passing game. He has been one of the biggest steals in most drafts, as he sits atop the RB rankings list after 5 weeks. The matchup with the Falcons could be a stiff test for McCoy as they have been very effective against the run (86.6 ypg and 2 TDs) so far this season.

Projections:
Kevin Kolb: 245 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 15 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 55 yds receiving
Brent Celek: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 75 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Eagles 17 Falcons 14 ^ Top

Colts @ Redskins - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning is pretty good. Do I need to go on? It’s probably got to the point where Manning is now UNDER-rated, because people are so used to season after season of outstanding performances. The players around him change and the coaching staff changes but the Colts keep winning with Manning being the sole constant. Austin Collie has been the top rated fantasy WR through five weeks which just further tells you how good Manning is. Nothing against Collie, he’s a fine WR, but put him on say the Bengals and he’s likely not even a weekly fantasy starter.

This one could get ugly quickly. Washington is the 31st ranked defense in the league - allowing 298 passing yards per game and has yielded 7 passing TDs on the season. Outside of OLB/DE Brian Orapko, the Skins lack a pass rusher than can get to opposing QBs in standard four man rushes, so they have been unable to generate pressure without blitzing. Against a QB like Manning this will be a real issue. Give him time in the pocket and he’ll pick you apart. Blitz and fail to get there and the consequences will be devastating.

Running Game Thoughts: Back-up RB Donald Brown was inactive due to injury in Week 5 and starter Joseph Addai had to leave the game early due to his own injuries, which left third year RB and former Michigan Wolverine Mike Hart as the entire Colts running game. Hart capitalized and played the role of hero, as he bowled his way into the end-zone from 11 yards out allowing the Colts to knock off the undefeated Chiefs. Addai should be back this week, but has been limited in practices, so keep an eye out of his progress.

The Washington run defense was amongst the best in the league heading into the Week 5 contest with Green Bay. That was before allowing Brandon Jackson, of all people, to break off a 70+ yard run on his way to 115 on the day and also surrendering another 30 yards to QB Aaron Rodgers. Let’s call that game a fluke. If you are tempted to try and squeeze a “sneaky play” week out of Mike Hart, you’d be wise look elsewhere, as the Skins can stop the run and Manning should have his way against the defense, throwing all night long.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 335 yds passing, 3 TDs / 5 yds rushing
Reggie Wayne: 100 yds receiving, 1 TD
Austin Collie: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 30 yds receiving
Dallas Clark: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Joseph Addai: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Mike Hart: 25 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb hasn’t performed all that well in 2010. You can say that he lacks the weapons to put up big numbers, but that would ignore the fact that he is only completing 56% of his passes and has missed some wide-open targets over the first 5 weeks. It’s true that Santana Moss, Joey Galloway and Anthony Armstrong are among the weakest WR corps. in the league, but McNabb has done more with less in the past and does have a very talented TE in Chris Cooley to work with. I’ve been consistently calling for TE Fred Davis to be worked into the offense more in 2 TE sets, but my last name is not “Shanahan” so I have little (ok, “no”) say in the Redskins’ game planning.

The Colts are a middle of the road passing defense, ranked 15th while allowing 203.6 and 6 TDs on the season. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have only really had one stand out game, against the NY Giants, and will need to step up each week in order to at least give the Colts some semblance of a defense. They can not stop the run at all, so making it difficult to pass against them would provide a real benefit.

Running Game Thoughts: Torain did not have an exceptional debut as a starter last week against Green Bay, but performed adequately in a game where both offenses struggled to move the ball. This week I fully expect the “Torain Train” to leave the station. Torain isn’t very fast but runs with authority and should tear apart a terrible Cots run defense. Shanahan knows his only chance to beat the Colts is to keep Manning on the sidelines for as long as possible, as the Skins passing game can not keep up with the Colts aerial attack.

Most NFL fans know that the Colts run defense regresses to “wretched” when Bob Sanders is not in the line-up. Sanders has not played a down in 2010 and isn’t expected back anytime soon. The Colts are allowing 142.2 ppg and 5 TDs on the ground thus far and that’s including a game where they faced a Denver offense that barely attempted to run at all and started Laurence Maroney at RB.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 235 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 85 yds receiving
Joey Galloway: 35 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ryan Torain: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receving

Prediction: Colts 27 Redskins 14 ^ Top

Chargers @ Rams - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Do not mistake the Chargers (2-3) record for anything more than atrocious special teams play. They still enter this game with the league’s top offense and second rated defense. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates may re-write the single season TE numbers. In fact, TE Antonio Gates is the leading Fantasy receiver, not just among TEs but, among all receivers. Speaking of impressive, WR Malcolm Floyd’s 213 yards explosion last week vaults him into must start status in all fantasy leagues. Beyond them, there is no one to get excited about. Legedu Naanee, Buster Davis, and Patrick Clayton all cannibalize each other’s value. None of them can be trusted to consistently produce significant production on a weekly basis until further notice.

Running Game Thoughts: The million dollar question is whether or not Mike Tolbert’s fifteen minutes reach expiration this week. He struggled against the Raiders to the tune of 11 carries for twelve yards and a goal line fumble. Head Coach Norv Turner explained that the more talented rookie Ryan Mathews would take over as the starter once he showed he could make it through a week of practice with full participation. That certainly seems feasible considering how healthy Mathews looks during the game but, once again Mathews sat out practice Tuesday with a sore ankle. As a Mathew’s owner, I share in the frustration of many who drafted him with such high expectations in the draft. Pay close attention to his practice status Wednesday. If he remains out or only partially practices, then Tolbert will continue splitting carries in a favorable matchup at St. Louis.

Predictions:
Philip Rivers: 295 yds/2TDs/1 INT
Malcom Floyd: 85 yds/1 TD
Legedu Naanee: 45 yds
Antonio Gates: 90 yds/1 TD
Ryan Mathews: 85 yds
Mike Tolbert: 45 yds/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams WR core has been decimated by injuries for the second straight year. After losing Donnie Avery to start the year they now place top WR Mark Clayton on IR with a torn knee. The loss of Clayton would seem to increase the roll of possession WR Danny Amendola. He was targeted 19 times while grabbing twelve after Clayton went down. There is no doubt Amendola gets a bump in value but his upside is limited due to the short routes he excels at. The real value is in knowing who steps into Claytons big play role between Brandon Gibson and Laurent Robinson. The Promising young QB Sam Bradford needs a new scoring threat. Robinson has all the physical tools but has had a career riddled with injuries. Gibson on the other hand has been the more active players averaging almost fifteen yards per catch and has developed more of a rapport with Bradshaw. Most insiders give the nod over Gibson to be the most likely to step up. If you have room on a roster, he is a guy to stash or at least keep an eye on this week to see if he can provide and big play red zone target for a Rams offense that has thrown the ball a lot this year.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson must be thrilled to still be playing meaningful games in week six. He is running like it. Jackson went over 100 yards rushing last week. There is little concern that the loss of Clayton will reduce his room to run. Regardless of the WRs, Bradford is a threat that has to be respected. Amendola is still an established threat and either Gibson or Robinson will pick up Clayton’s slack. The Chargers run defense isn’t a good matchup, but Jackson will remain a top back moving forward.

Projections:
Sam Bradford: 220 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Danny Amendola: 70 yds/1 TD
Brandon Gibson: 60 yds
Daniel Fells: 30 yds
Steven Jackson: 85 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Chargers 27 Rams 20 ^ Top

Raiders @ 49ers - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell is expected to start if Bruce Gradkowski can’t overcome his shoulder trouble. We haven’t seen much of Campbell as a game planned starter for the Raiders. We know he likes TEs and Zach Miller has scored in three straight games making Miller the third ranked TE this year. The WRs are a little less exciting. Louis Murphy is the best option but has been banged up. Murphy can put up some nice numbers this week because the 49er defense is much better to pass on then run. Despite Heyward-Beys’ high target total, he has not produced enough to earn any trust yet.

Running Game Thoughts: For at least one more game Michael Bush remains the king of the hill is the Raiders backfield regardless of whether or not questionable Darren McFadden suits up. We know the Raider’s are good for two things. Throwing to Miller and giving the RBs lots of attempts. Bush faces a tougher than average run defense but will be a serviceable fantasy option on sheer number of carries. Bush is a tough inside runner with decent feet in the mold of Peyton Hillis. This game should remain close and Bush can begin to wear down the 49er front in the second half for some decent yardage and a score.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 225 yds/1 TD
Louis Murphy: 60 yds/1 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 50 yds
Zach Miller: 80 yds/1 TD
Michael Bush: 75 yds/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite the (0-5) record HC Mike Singletary is still reluctant to pull QB Alex Smith in favor of the first round disappointment Davis Carr. If Smith can’t turn the season around the Niners know they have to start from scratch again next year which will set the organization back another couple years. Smith continually shows flashes of talent when his back is against the wall but can’t seem to avoid those one or two bonehead mistakes per game that cost them wins. A great sign is last week’s game was the focus on getting Michael Crabtree into the mix with nine catches for 105 yards. I’m not sure what the Niners were waiting for if it was his poor practice habits or a stubbornness on the part of their game planning to be a one dimensional power run offense but they haven’t been good enough on defense this year to win without the offense opening up a bit. He and TE Vernon Davis are their best weapons for that. This could be a difficult matchup for Crabtree facing Nnamdi Asomugha but, I still like his chances for a few reasons. Asomugha usually stays to one side of the field and can be avoided. They used some short screens and quick outs to get the ball in his hands quickly and let him rely on his running ability, and third, though few will admit it openly, Asomugha hasn’t exactly been the shutdown corner he has in the past. Malcom Floyd torched the Raiders for 200 yards and several of his catches were with Nnamdi on him. Great matchup to keep an eye on either way this weekend.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week versus Philly I thought RB Frank Gore deserved as much scrutiny for the offensive struggles as Smith. He didn’t look like the charged up work horse we’ve grown accustomed to. He fumbled twice, kept losing his balance on cuts, and looked a little disenfranchised in what should have been a great game for him against the small Eagle front seven. The Raiders are worse than the Eagles ranking second to last in the league against the run. Gore is the key man in this game to salvage the season and the stars are aligned for him to do it with a better effort than last week. Last call Frank, the season is leaving the station.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 200 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 75 yds
Josh Morgan: 40 yds
Vernon Davis: 75 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 105 yds/35 rec/2 TDs

Prediction: 49ers 24 Raiders 20 ^ Top

Jets @ Broncos - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The opening day stinker for Mark Sanchez is a distant memory for this offense that has won four straight and now has weapons all over the place with the return of Santonio Holmes. How Holmes would fit in to the offense was a little bit of a mystery last week. While he finished with marginal numbers, 3-for-41, there were some positive signs. He played roughly two thirds of the snaps, just missed on some big throws down the fields, was targeted a lot but dropped a few catches, including a couple third down attempts. The targets on third down speak to the level of confidence the Jets had in him his first game back. Going forward Holmes will be the man to own and hurt the value of Braylon Edwards and TE Dustin Keller. This week the Jets face a vulnerable Broncos defense that will be without starting safety and leader of the defense, Brian Dawkins, CB2 Andre Goodman, and LB Robert Ayers, their pass rush replacement for Elvis Dumervil. Without a pass rush and a weakened secondary, Sanchez should have time in the pocket to connect on a few big plays on the outside to Holmes and Keller should have his way over the middle.

Running Game Thoughts: Watching the re-invigorated LaDainian Tomlinson run all over the tough Minnesota run defense last week was a sight to behold. He lacks the top end speed he once had but he is routinely making it to the second level of the defense using his patented jump cut which is still very explosive. He owned the first half of that football game and was the reason the Jets won. Tomlinson is different from most RBs because he will actually have more value in the tough match-ups. In close games they keep him on the field more than games they know they can win, where they will spell him with Shonn Greene. Both backs are startable this week and in a PPR Tomlinson’s involvement in the passing game make him better, but his value ultimately lies with how well the Broncos play on offense and their ability to make this a tough game for the Jets.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 Int
Santonio Holmes: 85 yds/1 TD
Braylon Edwards: 55 yds
Dustin Keller: 65 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 75 yds/25 rec/1 TD
Shonn Greene: 55 yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton proved against the Baltimore Ravens that this offense is matchup proof. The Jets have a formidable defense but CB Darrelle Revis is questionable, and they rank just 23rd so far in pass defense. They can be passed on and Denver has shown very little interest this year in doing anything but pass the ball. Orton will get some yards in game but they key in this game will be their ability to convert red zone opportunities. They lack a consistent big TE or WR they can lean on in close. Demeryius Thomas could evolve into that role eventually built he may not even play this week after getting drilled on a special teams play. Brandon Lloyd has led the scoring, mostly from distance. That is a unreliable proposition to rely upon moving forward without more of a running threat.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver has been the second worst rushing team in the league so far. Buckhalter and Maroney have been a joke, but even starter Knowshon Moreno was averaging less than three yards per carry when healthy. Moreno is practicing for the first time in three weeks but his he won’t make a difference against this run defense. After this though, there will be much more favorable matchups for him especially now that the passing offense has established a reputation.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 300 yds/2 TD/1 Int
Brandon Lloyd: 70 yds
Jabar Gaffney: 65 yds/ 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 70 yds/1 TD
Knowshon Moreno / Laurence Maroney: 40 yds/35 rec

Prediction: Jets 27 Broncos 20 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Packers - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: After throwing for only one TD through the first two games, Chad Henne has picked up the pace a bit. He’s thrown four TDs in the last two games and has more than 300 yards in each, but his four interceptions during that stretch make for a tremendous buzz kill. WR Davone Bess has been a pleasant surprise this year. He’s even keeping up with Brandon Marshall’s production—especially during the last two games in which Bess produced 14 receptions for 182 yards. No receiver on Miami’s roster has more than one TD, but that could very well change this week considering the mounting injuries for Green Bay.

Despite the injuries, Green Bay maintains the league’s 13th-ranked defense. They’re far from world-beaters, but when you consider they’re without LB Nick Barnett and a host of defensive backs, their top-half ranking is admirable. Miami’s offensive line must keep the aggressive pass rushers at bay. The Packers’ 21 sacks are second in the league behind Tennessee’s 22. The Charles Woodson-Brandon Marshall battle should be a nice match-up to watch. Green Bay has surrendered an average of 315 passing yards over the last two games, so Henne could be a sneaky start this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Week to week, it’s difficult to forecast which Miami RB will be the most productive. Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are serviceable fantasy backs in their own right, but it’s a nightmare when gauging who to start. Only five carries and 50 yards separate the two so far this season. What makes it most difficult is the duo only has one rushing TD between them. Brown is a low-end #2 this week, and so is Williams—especially if you have Cedric Benson or DeAngelo Williams on bye this week.

After opening the season against Philly and Buffalo and having each team rush for well over 100 yards, Green Bay’s run defense has tightened up since then, giving up an average of 84 yards per game. The prospects of a productive game for either RB are slim, although Brown could get a short TD run. But if you’re forced to start either one, simply hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Projections:
Chad Henne – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Ronnie Brown – 55 yards rushing / 20 yards rec
Ricky Williams – 40 yards rushing
Brandon Marshall – 80 yards
Davone Bess – 65 yards / 1 TD
Anthony Fasano – 30 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: After reports earlier in the week indicated that Aaron Rodgers would more than likely miss this week’s game, signs are now pointing to Rodgers getting the nod. He took the majority of reps during practice on Thursday after doctors gave him the thumbs-up. On the surface, that sounds like good news. But as a Rodgers owner myself, I’m leery about starting him a week after getting his bell rung.

Miami may statistically be the 4th-ranked pass defense, but those numbers are skewed due to the crazy game against New England when the Patriots scored all those special teams and defensive TDs. They’re also inflated because of that dreadful Minnesota performance in week 2. Keep in mind, too, that Mark Sanchez sliced up the Dolphins defense. However…HOWEVER…as stated above, Rodgers is coming off a concussion, he lost his TE Jermichael Finley for at least the next two months, and once-productive WR Greg Jennings has done little so far to make a fantasy impact. This is a tough call this week. Perhaps the one component of Green Bay’s passing attack who has the greatest value is Donald Driver. Driver leads the team in receptions but has only one 100-plus yard game during the previous 16 contests. Tread lightly with the Green Bay passing attack this week.

Running Game Thoughts: I was tempted to leave this area blank, because that’s what Green Bay’s running “attack” has been: BLANK. Brandon Jackson’s long run last week aside, it’s been a horrendous performance by those replacing the injuring Ryan Grant. The Packers are ranked as the 15th-best rushing team in the league, but that’s a fallacy. A simple eyeball test would reveal that this team struggles on a regular basis and neither John Kuhn nor Brandon Jackson are viable options at this point. You’d have to been one desperate owner to rely on one of these players. Avoid both at all costs if humanly possible.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 185 yards / 2 TD
Brandon Jackson – 35 yards rushing / 20 rec
John Kuhn – 20 yards
Donald Driver – 70 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 55 yards
James Jones – 30 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 20, Miami 13 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Bears - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle passing game took a hit this week when the team’s second leading WR Deion Branch was traded to New England. Branch is far from the receiver he once was, and his 8 yards per reception was pedestrian any way you look at it, but taking away a cog from the passing game of an already average team leaves a huge void. Now Mike Williams must continue to step up, as well as Deon Butler. The Seahawks are in the bottom-third in passing offense and have only four passing TDs this season.

No defense has given up fewer passing TDs than the two Chicago has surrendered, and they’ve given up the fifth fewest points in the league. Even though the sacks don’t spell it out (only nine on the season), the front seven of the Bears has played exceptionally well. It will be a chore for Seattle to muster any semblance of a credible passing game. Mike Williams will be shut down, but look for Deon Butler and John Carlson to be Hasselbeck’s main targets all game long. Neither are suitable starts, although in TE-required leagues Carlson is a high-end #2.

Running Game Thoughts: A 29th-ranked running game with two TDs for the season going against the league’s 3rd-ranked run defense isn’t going to instill much confidence in fantasy owners this week. Justin Forsett is the unquestioned starter, who, when coupled with Leon Washington, give Seattle an agile and athletic one-two punch. But that punch won’t do much damage this week. I see Forsett playing a bigger role in the passing game moving forward, so he can be a low-key start most weeks. My only concern about him and the rest of the Seahawks is I think the Bears defense will pick up where it left off last week when they smashed a laughingstock Carolina offense. Don’t look now, but it could be just as ugly for Seattle this week.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck – 185 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
Justin Forsett – 40 yards rushing / 30 rec
Mike Williams – 50 yards
Deon Butler – 35 yards
John Carlson – 55 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chicago/Carolina game last week set NFL offensive football back about 50 years. It was as if Chicago’s QB Todd Collins and Carolina’s signal callers Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen had never seen nor heard of the forward pass. With Cutler sidelined, Chicago had 41 called running plays and 19 called pass plays. I’m sure Mike Martz cringed with each call. With Cutler back this week, you can be sure Martz will make up for that “lost” time last week. And with Seattle sporting the 31st-ranked pass defense, Martz will most assuredly focus his mode of attack on that weakness.

The biggest concern for Chicago relative to fantasy production continues to be its lack of quality receivers. That fact always makes playing Cutler somewhat of a gamble, but things are set nicely for a productive game from Chicago’s passing game. There aren’t any quality starting QBs on bye, so if Cutler’s your #2 and his match-up trumps that of your starter, don’t hesitate putting him in your line-up.

Running Game Thoughts: Chicago’s explosive running game last week produced more rushing yards than in the previous three games combined. Carolina’s rush defense was a sieve and allowed Matt Forte to show flashes from his rookie season. This week may prove to be a little different, because as porous as Seattle’s pass defense is, its run defense is contrastingly stingy. Only one team is better against the run than Seattle; and this after battling Frank Gore and Steven Jackson through two of their first four weeks. Forte could remain a player in the passing game, but give up any liberal ideas of optimism regarding his potential on the ground this week.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 250 yards / 2 TDs
Matt Forte – 45 yards rushing / 35 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Johnny Knox – 80 yards / 1 TD
Devin Hester – 45 yards
Greg Olsen – 70 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Chicago 24, Seattle 9 ^ Top

Browns @ Steelers - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Poor, poor Colt McCoy. Talk about rude rookie awakenings… McCoy makes his NFL debut on the road with an average supporting cast, against one of the top defenses in the league, and in what will surely be a raucous stadium with the return of Ben Roethlisberger. Suffice it to say it probably won’t be a good day for the Brownies in this one.

Mohamed Massaquoi and Chansi Stuckey are bottom-feeder fantasy options whose place on your roster should be questioned daily. Ben Watson, however, is having a steady, no-frills season. He could be the beneficiary of McCoy’s expected trend of dumping off short passes to slow down the Pittsburgh blitz. Screen passes, quick throws to WRs, and even Wildcat formations with Josh Cribbs should all be in play this week. Chances are those schemes won’t yield much production, so adjust your line-up if you could so that it reflects nothing resembling a Cleveland Brown.

Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Hillis has been battling a leg injury recently and it was obvious that it bothered him last week. He’s yet to practice this week, so his availability for the game is up in the air. Hillis has been one of those late draft pick/waiver wire gems we see every year. He’s a beast for Cleveland, both in the run game and passing game. If he doesn’t play, James Davis could see the start with Jerome Harrison having been shipped to the Eagles this week.

Whoever starts, keep this in mind: Pittsburgh has yet to give up more than 42 yards to any one RB this season. That should be reason enough to temper whatever dream-like optimism you may have brewing. If there’s even the slightest chance that Hillis can play, I’d say he will give it a shot. But don’t expect much playing time or production.

Projections:
Colt McCoy – 130 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
James Davis – 35 yards rushing
Peyton Hillis – 20 yards rushing / 15 yards rec
Mohamed Massaquoi – 40 yards
Chansi Stuckey – 20 yards
Ben Watson – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: The first inclination when two supposedly polar opposite teams collide is to automatically expect the inferior squad to get beat down. But when those two teams are divisional foes, that possibility often seems more far-fetched. Such could be the case this week. Cleveland’s pass defense has tried to hold its own this season, but Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer both tattooed Cleveland’s secondary in two of the Browns’ four games. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a conservative approach by Pittsburgh in an effort to re-acclimate Ben back into the picture.

Perhaps one of players with the most upside now that Roethlisberger is back is Mike Wallace. He’s essentially a one-dimensional player, but that one dimension is multiplied countless times when a player the caliber of Roethlisberger returns. Expect a deep ball or two thrown Wallace’s way. Hines Ward’s pedestrian 12 receptions lead the team; he could actually match that total over the next two games. This team won’t hit its stride relative to the passing game until another week or two. I’d hold off on starting Big Ben right now, but both Ward and Wallace could be intriguing options this week. They probably won’t break any of your league’s fantasy records, but they could put up decent numbers.

Running Game Thoughts: It pains me to see Rashard Mendenhall be a productive back, especially after I chose San Diego’s RB Ryan Mathews over him. Ouch. But I digress. Mendenhall is Pittsburgh’s workhorse who’s gotten at least 19 carries in five straight games dating back to 2009. He will undoubtedly be the center of the game plan for Pittsburgh with Ben’s return. Cleveland’s 23rd-ranked defense appears vulnerable, but when you consider the fact the Browns have yet to give up a rushing TD, you begin questioning your logic. Don’t. Mendenhall will score this week and be a viable contributor to your team this week. Mark it down.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 165 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Rashard Mendenhall – 120 yards / 1 TD
Mike Wallace – 65 yards
Hines Ward – 35 yards
Heath Miller – 40 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Pittsburgh – 17, Cleveland 6 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Vikings - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: The good news for Tony Romo owners is he leads the league in pass attempts. The bad news for Romo owners is he leads the league in pass attempts. All those opportunities are bound to produce fantasy results at some point, but that same good fortune could turn sour quickly. With little threat of a running game, defensive linemen tee-off against Dallas’ O-line and create all kinds of havoc for Romo. Roy Williams is displaying skills he hasn’t shown since his first couple years in the league in Detroit. His re-emergence will only open things up for Miles Austin and Jason Witten.

Minnesota has the 6th best pass defense, but its six sacks so far are a travesty considering the home field advantage they enjoy and the pass rushers on the D-line. If the Vikings get an early lead and unleash Jaren Allen and Ray Edwards, it could be a long day for Romo. I expect a healthy dose of Witten as well as more targets going to Dez Bryant. Since Dallas general eschews the running game early and often, that typically spells potentially good things for Romo and crew. Romo could very well go for 300 yards this game.

Running Game Thoughts: I remain clueless why Felix Jones isn’t given the rock more often. Jones is a homerun ready happen. But Marion Barber’s significant role in the offense essentially renders them both useless…oh wait. Who am I kidding? The offense’s philosophy actually renders both useless. Only eight teams have fewer called runs than Dallas. It must be tough owning a Dallas RB under these conditions.

Minnesota’s defensive prowess seems to have flip-flopped since last season. The Vikings have been generally known as a team that can stuff the run but was susceptible through the air. In 2010, those strengths are reversed. Perhaps this is the week when Dallas makes a concerted effort to try and run the football consistently. With its season on the brink and the team in need of putting up points, Jones and Barber could play second fiddle once again.

Projections:
Tony Romo – 285 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INTs
Felix Jones – 65 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Marion Barber – 35 yards rushing
Miles Austin – 120 yards / 1 TD
Roy Williams – 55 yards
Dez Bryant – 40 yards / 1 TD
Jason Witten – 40 ayrds

Passing Game Thoughts: Don’t believe the hype that Brett Favre’s not playing. Sitting because of tendinitis? Yeah, right. Minnesota’s season hangs in the balance, and there’s no way Favre sits idle while watching Minnesota’s season circle the drain. I think they’ll come out firing, getting Randy Moss better adjusted to the new offense and Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe stretching the field down the seams. Dallas’ middle-of-the-road defense will be tested early and often by an ailing Favre. Expect a good game from Moss, Harvin and Shiancoe, as Moss’ addition creates holes in Dallas’ defensive backfield.

Favre has already thrown as many INTs this season as he had all of last season. He may not have to concern himself with that this week, as Dallas’ two INTs are tied for second worst in the league with…the Vikings. If they (read: Favre) can take care of the football, Minnesota wins easily while creating fantasy magic for his various weapons.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson is as reliable a fantasy RB as any in the league. After finishing 2009 with only three 100-plus yard games, he already has two. What’s worse for opponents is he’s now more involved in the passing game. Expect more of that this week, as I believe the game will be put in Favre’s hands early on and given to Peterson to milk the clock late. Dallas faced Chris Johnson last week and Arian Foster the week before. Both performed well and certainly gave Peterson owners that much more confidence knowing that Peterson is poised for a good game.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 210 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Adrian Peterson – 120 yards / 1 TD
Randy Moss – 90 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 45 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 65 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Dallas 20 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Texans - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It was only a matter of time, and the Chiefs suffered their first loss in Week 5 at the hands of the defending AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs’ offensive ineptitude was as predictable as the loss. With just 650 passing yards in four games, quarterback Matt Cassel is on pace for a mere 2,600 yards passing—a total that would even put him significantly below his pathetic numbers in 2009.

But while the Matt Cassel experiment has to be considered a monumental failure by the front office in Kansas City, there is actually a chance that he and the Chiefs will have a productive day passing against the Texans in Week 6. Having allowed multiple touchdowns in five of their first six games and allowing more than 275 yards passing in every game, the Houston pass defense has been monumentally bad. They are currently ranked 31st against opposing quarterbacks. The Texans have to expect the Chiefs to run the ball a lot this week, which could lead to some big plays in the passing game if Cassel and his receivers (particularly Dwayne Bowe) can start clicking. Cassel could have one of his biggest fantasy days of the 2010 season—though even that doesn’t necessarily make him a must-start.

Running Game Thoughts: With the Chiefs passing game being so bad, it’s hard to believe the rushing game has been so good. Normally when teams cannot throw the ball, the run game suffers as defenses key in on the backs and take away their running lanes. Fortunately for fantasy owners of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, that has not been the case in 2010. Both Charles and Jones have been fantasy assets, with Charles being the more productive of the two despite receiving only about one-third of the team’s carries through the first three weeks. Last week, though, the Chiefs finally gave a large share of the carries to Charles, who accumulated over 100 total yards on 19 touches. This trend should continue into Week 6 as the Chiefs face a Texans team that has struggled to contain opposing running backs, allowing six total touchdowns already. With Jamaal Charles now considered the “starter” in Kansas City, Jones may be a fantasy afterthought. In other words, don’t start him this week unless you absolutely have to. Wait to see how the Chiefs will use Jones going forward before relying upon him again.

Projections:
Matt Cassel – 215 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Jamaal Charles – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 45 yards receiving
Thomas Jones – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Dwayne Bowe – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Chris Chambers – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Dexter McCluster – 5 yards rushing / 0 TD / 35 yards receiving
Tony Moeaki – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Two of the last three games have been a harsh reality check for the once red-hot Texans offense. With wide receivers Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones both missing time with injuries, Matt Schaub and the passing game have run into a road block that they are struggling to get around. The NFL’s leading passer in 2009, Schaub has now failed to reach 200 yards in three of the Texans’ first five games, including back-to-back games against the Raiders and the Giants.

Thankfully, Andre Johnson now appears to be healthy, and Jacoby Jones says that he is “ready to roll” for this Sunday’s game, so expect lots of passing from Schaub against Kansas City. The Chiefs have done a relatively good job stopping the pass, however, after they held Peyton Manning to zero touchdowns last week, so don’t necessarily expect monster numbers.

Running Game Thoughts: The roller coaster ride of Arian Foster’s 2010 season had its biggest fall in Week 5 as the New York Giants held him to just 25 yards on 11 carries. Not only that, but Foster was held in check in the passing game with just two yards receiving after two 50-plus yard performances in his previous three games. These numbers are certainly skewed, however, as the Giants had taken a 24-3 lead by halftime and the Texans didn’t have time to run the ball much after that.

While the Chiefs defense has done a fairly good job of stopping opposing running backs on the ground, they have allowed five or more receptions to them in every game. This has translated into three straight 40-plus yard receiving games for running backs, including a 100-yard receiving day to the 49ers backs in Week 3. Foster’s abilities as a runner and receiver could make him a difficult player for the Kansas City defense to stop.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 220 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT
Arian Foster – 100 yards rushing / 1 TD / 30 yards receiving
Andre Johnson – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jacoby Jones – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Owen Daniels – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Texans 27 ^ Top

Saints @ Buccaneers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees had an oddly difficult game against a usually mediocre Arizona Cardinals pass defense in Week 5. While he threw for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns, his 3 interceptions have to be a major concern for Saints fans. With Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas out, the Saints have struggled to establish their usually productive short passing game. Despite throwing nearly five times per game more than he did in 2009, Brees’ passing yardage per game has taken a dive, and he has just one completion of more than 40 yards so far this season.

Brees will attempt to get out of his funk against a better-than-expected Buccaneers pass defense that has intercepted multiple passes in every game this season. Then again, Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, Charlie Batch, and Carson Palmer aren’t exactly on the same level as Drew Brees. Brees is struggling right now, but he remains an elite quarterback and it’s not likely that people who drafted him have a much better option—he’s an every week starter.

Running Game Thoughts: Pierre Thomas is expected to be back after missing the past two games with an injury. His return will be a welcome addition to a Saints offense that has struggled to run the ball with Chris Ivory and Ladell Betts. Though Thomas ran for just 147 yards over the first three games, he added 133 yards receiving, and his presence on the field will help open things up for other players in the offense.

If Thomas does return, he will face a Buccaneers defense that has allowed 534 yards on the ground—and 127 through the air—to opposing running backs in just four games. Thomas has had double-digit points against the Buccaneers in three straight contests, so his track record is pretty good against this porous defense. If Thomas is unable to go, the Saints will likely turn to a split-backfield of Ladell Betts and Chris Ivory—neither of whom can really be relied upon in fantasy football.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 290 yards passing / 2 TD / 2 INT
Pierre Thomas – 70 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Ladell Betts – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving
Marques Colston – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Lance Moore – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Devery Henderson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 35 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It hasn’t always been pretty, but Tampa Bay’s second-year quarterback Josh Freeman has been effective enough to bring his team to a surprising 3-1 record. Freeman has had 15 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season—the only exception being against an extremely tough Pittsburgh defense in Week 3, when the whole team struggled.

Currently the 14th-ranked fantasy quarterback, Freeman’s rushing ability earns his fantasy owners a few extra points each week, which can often be the difference in a game. The New Orleans pass defense has been known for their ability to force a high number of turnovers, but with just five interceptions through the first five games of the season, this matchup may not be as difficult for Freeman as it looks on the surface. His favorite target, receiver Mike Williams, is currently listed as questionable, but head coach Raheem Morris said on Thursday that he expects Williams to play this week. The Saints have struggled particularly badly against tight ends, giving up two touchdowns and already allowing three games of 90 or more yards to opposing tight ends. Enter Kellen Winslow. Though Freeman can’t be relied upon as an every-week starter, there are certainly worse options for bye-week or injury fill-ins.

Running Game Thoughts: As surprisingly good as Freeman has been, it’s little surprise to fantasy owners that the running game has been so mediocre. After rushing for just five touchdowns as a team in 2009, the Buccaneers haven’t done much better in 2010, rushing for just two through their first four games—neither of which has been scored by starter Cadillac Williams. While Kareem Huggins and LaGarrette Blount are knocking on the door, it appears that fullback Earnest Graham is actually the most trusted player in this backfield, and he has even outscored Cadillac thus far.

The Saints have struggled to stop the run, allowing the fifth-most points to opposing backs so far. But the Tampa Bay backfield is just too unpredictable right now to rely upon anyone as a fantasy option. Cadillac Williams will likely still see the most carries, but that number could be matched or exceeded by the trio of Graham, Huggins, and Blount. Stay away.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 210 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT / 25 yards rushing
Cadillac Williams – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Earnest Graham – 15 yards receiving / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Mike Williams – 75 yards receiving / 0 TD
Kellen Winslow – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 17 ^ Top

Titans @ Jaguars - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: After two consecutive stinkers against the Steelers and Giants, Vince Young has begun to get things back on track with back-to-back solid performances against the Broncos and Cowboys. Though his numbers haven’t been huge, Young has now gone three straight games without a turnover, and he appears to be getting more comfortable as the starting quarterback. Wide receiver Kenny Britt has stepped up significantly (a touchdown catch in each of the past three games) and is quickly establishing himself as what the Titans hoped he would eventually become—the team’s top receiver.

If there were ever a time for Vince Young to have a breakout game, it would be this week against the 32nd-ranked Jacksonville pass defense. The Jaguars have allowed a league-worst 12 passing touchdowns, including a three-touchdown game last week to Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. While Vince Young struggles at times, he certainly has more talent than Fitzpatrick—and the Titans receivers seem to be hitting their stride. This could be a big game for Young.

Running Game Thoughts: Up, down, up, down, up—no, this isn’t a Nintendo cheat code. It’s a description of Chris Johnson’s 2010 fantasy season. Johnson has multiple touchdowns in three games so far but has failed to reach even five fantasy points in the other two games. The Titans have been inconsistent as a team, so that’s not particularly surprising, but generally the first overall pick in fantasy drafts is expected to be a bit more consistent than this.

The Jaguars have been better at stopping the run than they have the pass—but that’s not saying much of anything. After allowing more than 100 yards on the ground to the Bills running backs, it’s hard to believe they can contain Chris Johnson. Though the early-season trend tells me that this will be a “down” game for Johnson, my instincts tell me something different, as Johnson absolutely destroyed the Jaguars to the tune of 228 yards and two rushing touchdowns the last time he played them.

Projections:
Vince Young – 195 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT
Chris Johnson – 115 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving / 1 TD
Javon Ringer – 25 yards rushing / 0 TD
Kenny Britt – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Nate Washington – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: With three multiple-touchdown days in his first five games, David Garrard has been surprisingly productive in 2010. He currently ranks 12th among quarterbacks, but we’ve very likely already seen the ceiling of his fantasy production. It’s hard to rely on a guy who threw just 15 touchdowns during the entire 2009 season and hasn’t really been given any new, noteworthy receivers. In fact, if anything, wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who was a surprising fantasy standout last year, has mostly fallen back to fantasy irrelevance. Though he caught a touchdown pass last week, Sims-Walker has been surpassed by teammate Mike Thomas, who leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards.

The Titans pass defense is currently ranked 15th in scoring allowed to quarterbacks, but that number is very skewed. They performed extremely well in Weeks 1 and 2 against the Raiders and Steelers, but they have been absolutely torched through the air in their past three games against the Giants, Broncos, and Cowboys. During that span, the Titans have allowed 1,133 yards to opposing quarterbacks. Though he doesn’t have the receivers of those teams, this is a good matchup for Garrard, who is as hot right now as he may ever get.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew has been perhaps the most disappointing player of the 2010 fantasy season. A top-four pick in practically every league, Jones-Drew is currently the 26th-highest scoring fantasy back and has just one touchdown on the ground. The biggest disappointment came last week against the Buffalo Bills, in a game that the Jaguars largely dominated. Jones-Drew was nursing a wrist injury, but the fact that he failed to score or to reach 100 total yards against one of the worst run defenses in the league could be a very bad sign for his value going forward.

The Titans currently rank 6th in the league in points allowed to opposing running backs, having given up just one touchdown on the ground in the first five games. Like their pass defense, though, this number is a bit skewed after the ridiculous performance they had against the Broncos in Week 4, when they allowed just eight rushing yards. Tennessee’s defensive line is playing much better than expected so far this season, so the Jaguars will likely attack them through the air. You have to assume that Jones-Drew will get better at some point soon, but this doesn’t appear to be a particularly excellent matchup.

Projections:
David Garrard – 240 yards passing / 2 TD / 2 INT / 15 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving / 0 TD
Mike Thomas – 65 yards receiving / 0 TD
Mike Sims-Walker – 55 receptions / 0 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Jacksonville 21 ^ Top