2/2/11
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Predictions
- YTD |
Rk |
Staffer |
W |
L |
% |
1 |
Autry |
46 |
20 |
69.7 |
2 |
Marcoccio |
41 |
23 |
64.1 |
3 |
Eakin |
37 |
28 |
56.9 |
4 |
Caron |
28 |
25 |
52.8 |
- |
Kilroy |
10 |
4 |
71.4 |
|
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Packers vs. Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers may or may not have suffered
his third concussion of the season in the NFC Championship game
in Chicago depending on whether or not you want to believe some
reports. Nevertheless, he’s considered to be 100% healthy
and ready to play on the biggest stage of his young career. Rodgers
should be able to win over those most ardent Brett Favre supporters
who have yet to fully embrace him should he be able to match No.
4 in Super Bowl victories with a win this Sunday. Rodgers is about
as locked in as any QB coming into the big game and has the weapons
to light up the scoreboard against even the stiffest of defenses
when things are clicking. He sees the field extremely well and
has the ability to extend plays by alluding defenders while keeping
his eyes downfield looking for one of his targets to break open.
He’s an adept scrambler that can also gain yards with his
legs should said targets not be open. Greg Jennings has been Rodgers’
“go to guy” since young TE Jermichael Finley tore
up his knee in Week 4. Jennings can get deep but is also a precise
enough route runner to get separation on short routes as well.
Aging veteran Donald Driver has clearly lost a step or two but
is still one of the toughest receivers in the league and is as
sure handed as they come. Driver will move into the slot, to take
advantage of his ability to find space in the soft part of the
defense, when the Pack spread the defense by brining in strong
and fast “youngsters” James Jones and/or Jordy Nelson.
Jones lacks concentration at times causing some heartbreaking
drops, but is big enough to outmuscle most defenders for the ball
and has uncanny run-after-the-catch abilities reminiscent of a
young Anquan Boldin. Nelson isn’t as big or fast as Jones,
but can get open in small spaces and hauls in almost everything
thrown his way. When the Packers do go four wide they could have
the deepest corps of WR talent in the league, which should overmatch
the Steelers suspect secondary.
The Steelers Achilles heal has been their inability to deal with
spread offenses, especially when they are not able to pressure
the passer. When they need to take a linebacker or lineman off
the field in their nickel or dime packages, they have been vulnerable
to precision passers like Tom Brady due to lack of depth at the
corner position and because it doesn’t afford the defense
to bring as many pass rushers. On the flip side, when teams do
spread them out, the offense exposes themselves to short corners
in their blocking schemes allowing James Harrison and Lamar Woodley
do what they do best as edge pass rushers - get to the quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers’ quick release will be the Packers biggest
weapon to counter the fierce Pittsburgh pass rush, and the Steelers
would be wise to watch tapes of the Divisional Round game where
Rodgers consistently moved around and away from John Abraham’s
over-pursuit of the QB. Rodgers is as dangerous on the run as
he is in the pocket, so the Steelers will need to curb their enthusiasm
when attacking from the edges. The William Gay matchup on James
Jones will be one of the key matchups, should Ike Taylor and Bryant
McFadden contain Jennings and Driver, as Gay has struggled against
physical WRs this season.
Running Game Thoughts: For most of the season the Packers
did very little on the ground, and despite some recent success
in the playoffs, they will be hard pressed to do much against
the Steel Curtain. Rookie James Starks has finally provided the
Packers with a running game after spending most of the regular
season on the PUP list. But, after surprising the Eagles with
a monster game in the opening weekend of the playoffs, he hasn’t
been nearly as effective. Stark’s is a hard runner, but
running hard into a brick wall isn’t something I can recommend
and that is the problem facing the Packers this Sunday. Just how
much lip service should they pay to a rushing attack, when the
Steelers have limited teams on the ground and when Green Bay is
far better suited to attack the Steelers’ one “weakness”?
During the regular season Pittsburgh allowed only 62.9 yards per
game on the ground and an incredibly low five rushing TDs. 320
pounder Casey Hampton is a space eater in the middle of the defensive
line and even the best centers, like Nick Mangold in the AFC championship
game, have trouble pushing him around. Should a back somehow get
past the beefy Steeler line, James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons
are there to put a stop to forward progress. I haven’t even
mentioned the omnipresent Troy Polamalu yet who can chase down
anyone on the field with his uncanny speed and pursuit. Expect
the Packers to run only enough to keep their passing game honest.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 295 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing,
1 TD
Greg Jennings: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Donald Driver: 40 yds receiving
James Jones: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 15 yds receiving
James Starks: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Brandon Jackson: 15 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger’s stats weren’t
all that impressive in the AFC Championship game two weeks ago.
However, that was clearly a case that proves the old adage…
there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics". Ben
made the big play every time his team needed him to and was shown
the ultimate trust from Mike Tomlin, when he was allowed to pass
on 3rd and 6 with under two minutes left and the Steelers protecting
a five point lead. Like his counterpart in this game, Roethlisberger
is equally effective when in the pocket or on the run. With his
size and athletic ability there probably isn’t a better
QB in the NFL at making plays in the face of a heavy pass rush,
which is a good thing as the Steelers’ o-line is one of
the worst in the league in pass protection. WR Mike Wallace has
emerged into a bona fide star and while his 4.3 speed allows him
to beat almost any corner deep, he has also adapted his game into
being more than just the deep threat that he was during his rookie
season. The tough as nails Hines Ward is still getting it done
as perhaps the premier possession WR of his generation, but is
clearly in the backstretch of his career, and has been giving
way to rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders who have responded
like veterans. In fact, it was Brown, who was on the receiving
end of two of the biggest plays in Pittsburgh’s post season,
hauling in critical third down catches against both Baltimore
and the aforementioned one in the AFC Championship game on 3rd
and 6.
Green Bay’s defense has been so outstanding that the team
has never trailed by more than 7 points at any time during the
2010 season. OLB Clay Matthews has terrorized opposing QBs all
year and may have been provided some extra motivation after just
losing out in the Defensive Player of the Year voting to Pittsburgh’s
Troy Polamalu. Dom Capers system has sprung Matthews into the
“elite” defender tier and he should be a thorn in
Ben’s side for most of the contest. Because of Green Bay’s
ability to put pressure on QBs and Pittsburgh’s shaky o-line,
TE Heath Miller and RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman just
may find themselves kept in to block on most passing downs, in
effect removing them as passing targets. The Green Bay secondary
limited opponents to 194 passing yards per game and 1 TD per game
during the regular season and kept Michael Vick, Matt Ryan and
Jay Cutler stymied during the playoffs. Last season’s DPOY
Charles Woodson had another outstanding season but his opposite
corner, Tramon Williams, was the one that emerged in 2010 as the
big time playmaker that opposing QBs need to account for.
Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall
tore apart a very stout Jets run defense two weeks ago and must
be a vital part of the equation if Pittsburgh wants to be able
to climb the “Stairway to Seven” successfully. Mendenhall
is a big back that can gain the tough yards, but really relies
more on his nimble feet, lateral cuts and his ability to spin
out of tackles to gain yards. The Pittsburgh o-line is more effective
in run blocking schemes than pass blocking schemes but are still
only average, at best. The injured ankle that rookie Maurkice
Pouncey suffered against the Jets could lead to him missing the
game, which would be a huge loss. Pouncey is still claiming that
he will play on Sunday, but high ankle sprains are very difficult
injuries to play with. Backup center Doug Legursky played well
against the Jets but Sione Pouha is a much easier assignment than
NT B.J. Raji. The Packers overcame the loss of linebacker Nick
Barnet to still be a solid run-stopping unit, but they weren’t
as effective in 2010 as they were in 2009. In a matchup between
the top two defenses in the league, it may just be Pittsburgh’s
advantage in the running game that is the difference in the contest.
If the team can jump out to an early lead, the team is well suited
to hold that lead by wearing down the Green Bay defense with their
two powerful running backs, Mendenhall and Redman. The Steelers
will be playing in their third Super Bowl in the past five years
so in theory they should come out if the gates calm and professional
while the Packers may be a little over anxious. If the Steelers
can take advantage of that, it will be interesting to see how
a Packers team - not used to playing from behind - reacts.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 235 yards, 2 TDs / 15 yds rushing
Mike Wallace: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hines Ward: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 25 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 15 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Isaac Redman: 30 yds rushing
Rashard Mendenhall: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Prediction: Steelers 27 Packers
24 ^ Top
Steelers vs. Packers
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
leads his team to their first Super Bowl appearance since Super
Bowl XXXII, 13 years ago. Rodgers has admirably replaced future
Hall of Fame quarterback, Brett Favre, in one of the most football-rich
locations in the entire country. The Packers were the sixth seed
in the playoffs and became just the second sixth seed in history
to ever make it to the Super Bowl, with wins over Atlanta, Chicago,
and Philadelphia—the top three seeds in the NFC. Rodgers
himself was on fire during the first two games, throwing six touchdowns
to zero interceptions; but things were significantly tougher when
the Packers faced the Bears defense. Rodgers failed to throw a
touchdown while throwing two interceptions in a seven-point victory.
Things won’t be any easier in the Super Bowl as Rodgers
and the passing game will have to try to perform against the league’s
top defense, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The last time these two
teams squared off was in Week 15 of 2009 season when the Packers
fell to the Steelers by just one point. Aaron Rodgers was red
hot in that game as he threw for an impressive 383 yards and three
touchdowns while throwing zero interceptions. He added 22 yards
rushing and a touchdown. It was receiver Greg Jennings who led
the team with 118 yards receiving on five catches, including an
83-yard touchdown reception. Jennings remains the team’s
top target this season and leads all receivers in these playoffs
with 239 yards receiving. All of the Packers receivers will need
to be on point, though, as they face their toughest matchup of
the season in the world’s most popular sports event.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been
a tough season for the Packers running game which ranked 24th
in the league. With Ryan Grant out, the team has had to turn to
a combination of Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, and rookie running
back James Starks. While Starks rushed for just over 100 yards
during the entire regular season, he has been a force in the playoffs;
leading the Packers in rushing each week. In fact, Starks leads
all playoff rushers on all teams with 263 yards in the three games.
However, it has been John Kuhn who has been getting the majority
of the team’s goal line work, including two touchdowns on
Wild Card weekend.
Whoever is running the ball for the Packers will have an extremely
tough matchup as they face the Steelers and their top-ranked run
defense. Pittsburgh barely allowed 1,000 yards rushing total during
the regular season—over 400 yards less than the next best
defense. The five rushing touchdowns they allowed were also a
league-best. The last time Pittsburgh and Green Bay played, the
Packers running backs only totaled 38 yards on the ground—and
that was with a healthy Ryan Grant. Don’t expect a huge
game from any of the Packers’ running backs, which could
mean that John Kuhn is the best fantasy option among them this
week given his goal line skills.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 260 yards passing / 2 touchdowns / 1 INT
/ 20 yards rushing / 0 TD
James Starks – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving
/ 0 TD
Brandon Jackson – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 15 yards receiving
/ 0 TD
John Kuhn – 10 yards rushing / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 55 yards rushing / 0 TD
James Jones – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jordy Nelson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Andrew Quarless – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh Steelers are led by quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger who will be attempting to make history as a
three-time Super Bowl winner. Known as one of the most clutch
players in the game today, Roethlisberger’s statistical
output often does not coincide with the success of the team. In
fact, he has thrown for under 230 yards in seven of his 10 career
playoff victories. The Steelers are who they are—a defense-focused
team with an offense designed to control the pace of the game.
Roethlisberger and the passing game will go up against one of
their toughest opponents of the season in the Super Bowl as they
face the Packers and their fifth-ranked pass defense. Green Bay
allowed just 16 passing touchdowns on the year while forcing 24
interceptions—second most in the league during the regular
season. Cornerback Charles Woodson has long been labeled with
the “shutdown” tag but the man playing opposite him
this year, fifth-year cornerback Tramon Williams, may actually
be the best player in the secondary. Both Hines Ward and Mike
Wallace will have a tough time getting free against this impressive
cornerback duo. Wallace has struggled during the playoffs already,
amassing just three catches for 26 yards in the first two playoff
games. On the bright side, however, Wallace lit the Packers up
for 79 yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams played
in 2009.
Running Game Thoughts: Steelers
running back Rashard Mendenhall has been a fantasy stud during
these playoffs, having rushed for 167 yards and three touchdowns
in the first two games—and he has done it against two of
the league’s best defenses, the Jets and Ravens. While the
passing game has struggled at times, Mendenhall and the rushing
offense have remained solid throughout most of the season. Though
he rushed for 100 yards just three times in the regular season,
Mendenhall still ranked in the top-10 in fantasy points at running
back as he broke into double-digit fantasy points 10 times.
Pittsburgh has needed to play ball-control offense in each of
the two playoff games and will likely need to try to do it again
this week as they face the Packers and their third-ranked fantasy
run defense. They allowed just five rushing touchdowns this season
and five games of over 100-yards rushing by a team. That success
has pulled over into the playoffs as the Packers have allowed
only 166 yards rushing in their three playoff games. Things could
be even more difficult for the Steelers in the Super Bowl as it
is looking increasingly likely that they will be without star
rookie center, Maurkice Pouncey, who has missed practice with
a high-ankle sprain he suffered in the AFC conference-title game
win over the Jets. If Pouncey is out, expect the Packers to attempt
to exploit the Steelers’ deflated offensive line with Ryan
Pickett and B.J. Raji.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 205 yards passing / 1 TD / 0 INT /
20 yards rushing / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards
receiving
Mike Wallace – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Emmanuel Sanders – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Heath Miller – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD
Prediction: Packers 24, Steelers
27 ^ Top
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