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Damon Autry, Sal Marcoccio, Chris Eakin, Nick Caron


Inside The Matchup: Super Bowl XLV
2/2/11

 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Autry 46 20 69.7
2 Marcoccio 41 23 64.1
3 Eakin 37 28 56.9
4 Caron 28 25 52.8
- Kilroy 10 4 71.4

Packers vs. Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers may or may not have suffered his third concussion of the season in the NFC Championship game in Chicago depending on whether or not you want to believe some reports. Nevertheless, he’s considered to be 100% healthy and ready to play on the biggest stage of his young career. Rodgers should be able to win over those most ardent Brett Favre supporters who have yet to fully embrace him should he be able to match No. 4 in Super Bowl victories with a win this Sunday. Rodgers is about as locked in as any QB coming into the big game and has the weapons to light up the scoreboard against even the stiffest of defenses when things are clicking. He sees the field extremely well and has the ability to extend plays by alluding defenders while keeping his eyes downfield looking for one of his targets to break open. He’s an adept scrambler that can also gain yards with his legs should said targets not be open. Greg Jennings has been Rodgers’ “go to guy” since young TE Jermichael Finley tore up his knee in Week 4. Jennings can get deep but is also a precise enough route runner to get separation on short routes as well. Aging veteran Donald Driver has clearly lost a step or two but is still one of the toughest receivers in the league and is as sure handed as they come. Driver will move into the slot, to take advantage of his ability to find space in the soft part of the defense, when the Pack spread the defense by brining in strong and fast “youngsters” James Jones and/or Jordy Nelson. Jones lacks concentration at times causing some heartbreaking drops, but is big enough to outmuscle most defenders for the ball and has uncanny run-after-the-catch abilities reminiscent of a young Anquan Boldin. Nelson isn’t as big or fast as Jones, but can get open in small spaces and hauls in almost everything thrown his way. When the Packers do go four wide they could have the deepest corps of WR talent in the league, which should overmatch the Steelers suspect secondary.

The Steelers Achilles heal has been their inability to deal with spread offenses, especially when they are not able to pressure the passer. When they need to take a linebacker or lineman off the field in their nickel or dime packages, they have been vulnerable to precision passers like Tom Brady due to lack of depth at the corner position and because it doesn’t afford the defense to bring as many pass rushers. On the flip side, when teams do spread them out, the offense exposes themselves to short corners in their blocking schemes allowing James Harrison and Lamar Woodley do what they do best as edge pass rushers - get to the quarterback. Aaron Rodgers’ quick release will be the Packers biggest weapon to counter the fierce Pittsburgh pass rush, and the Steelers would be wise to watch tapes of the Divisional Round game where Rodgers consistently moved around and away from John Abraham’s over-pursuit of the QB. Rodgers is as dangerous on the run as he is in the pocket, so the Steelers will need to curb their enthusiasm when attacking from the edges. The William Gay matchup on James Jones will be one of the key matchups, should Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden contain Jennings and Driver, as Gay has struggled against physical WRs this season.

Running Game Thoughts:
For most of the season the Packers did very little on the ground, and despite some recent success in the playoffs, they will be hard pressed to do much against the Steel Curtain. Rookie James Starks has finally provided the Packers with a running game after spending most of the regular season on the PUP list. But, after surprising the Eagles with a monster game in the opening weekend of the playoffs, he hasn’t been nearly as effective. Stark’s is a hard runner, but running hard into a brick wall isn’t something I can recommend and that is the problem facing the Packers this Sunday. Just how much lip service should they pay to a rushing attack, when the Steelers have limited teams on the ground and when Green Bay is far better suited to attack the Steelers’ one “weakness”? During the regular season Pittsburgh allowed only 62.9 yards per game on the ground and an incredibly low five rushing TDs. 320 pounder Casey Hampton is a space eater in the middle of the defensive line and even the best centers, like Nick Mangold in the AFC championship game, have trouble pushing him around. Should a back somehow get past the beefy Steeler line, James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons are there to put a stop to forward progress. I haven’t even mentioned the omnipresent Troy Polamalu yet who can chase down anyone on the field with his uncanny speed and pursuit. Expect the Packers to run only enough to keep their passing game honest.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 295 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Donald Driver: 40 yds receiving
James Jones: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 15 yds receiving
James Starks: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Brandon Jackson: 15 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger’s stats weren’t all that impressive in the AFC Championship game two weeks ago. However, that was clearly a case that proves the old adage… there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics". Ben made the big play every time his team needed him to and was shown the ultimate trust from Mike Tomlin, when he was allowed to pass on 3rd and 6 with under two minutes left and the Steelers protecting a five point lead. Like his counterpart in this game, Roethlisberger is equally effective when in the pocket or on the run. With his size and athletic ability there probably isn’t a better QB in the NFL at making plays in the face of a heavy pass rush, which is a good thing as the Steelers’ o-line is one of the worst in the league in pass protection. WR Mike Wallace has emerged into a bona fide star and while his 4.3 speed allows him to beat almost any corner deep, he has also adapted his game into being more than just the deep threat that he was during his rookie season. The tough as nails Hines Ward is still getting it done as perhaps the premier possession WR of his generation, but is clearly in the backstretch of his career, and has been giving way to rookies Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders who have responded like veterans. In fact, it was Brown, who was on the receiving end of two of the biggest plays in Pittsburgh’s post season, hauling in critical third down catches against both Baltimore and the aforementioned one in the AFC Championship game on 3rd and 6.

Green Bay’s defense has been so outstanding that the team has never trailed by more than 7 points at any time during the 2010 season. OLB Clay Matthews has terrorized opposing QBs all year and may have been provided some extra motivation after just losing out in the Defensive Player of the Year voting to Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu. Dom Capers system has sprung Matthews into the “elite” defender tier and he should be a thorn in Ben’s side for most of the contest. Because of Green Bay’s ability to put pressure on QBs and Pittsburgh’s shaky o-line, TE Heath Miller and RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman just may find themselves kept in to block on most passing downs, in effect removing them as passing targets. The Green Bay secondary limited opponents to 194 passing yards per game and 1 TD per game during the regular season and kept Michael Vick, Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler stymied during the playoffs. Last season’s DPOY Charles Woodson had another outstanding season but his opposite corner, Tramon Williams, was the one that emerged in 2010 as the big time playmaker that opposing QBs need to account for.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall tore apart a very stout Jets run defense two weeks ago and must be a vital part of the equation if Pittsburgh wants to be able to climb the “Stairway to Seven” successfully. Mendenhall is a big back that can gain the tough yards, but really relies more on his nimble feet, lateral cuts and his ability to spin out of tackles to gain yards. The Pittsburgh o-line is more effective in run blocking schemes than pass blocking schemes but are still only average, at best. The injured ankle that rookie Maurkice Pouncey suffered against the Jets could lead to him missing the game, which would be a huge loss. Pouncey is still claiming that he will play on Sunday, but high ankle sprains are very difficult injuries to play with. Backup center Doug Legursky played well against the Jets but Sione Pouha is a much easier assignment than NT B.J. Raji. The Packers overcame the loss of linebacker Nick Barnet to still be a solid run-stopping unit, but they weren’t as effective in 2010 as they were in 2009. In a matchup between the top two defenses in the league, it may just be Pittsburgh’s advantage in the running game that is the difference in the contest. If the team can jump out to an early lead, the team is well suited to hold that lead by wearing down the Green Bay defense with their two powerful running backs, Mendenhall and Redman. The Steelers will be playing in their third Super Bowl in the past five years so in theory they should come out if the gates calm and professional while the Packers may be a little over anxious. If the Steelers can take advantage of that, it will be interesting to see how a Packers team - not used to playing from behind - reacts.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 235 yards, 2 TDs / 15 yds rushing
Mike Wallace: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hines Ward: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 25 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 15 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Isaac Redman: 30 yds rushing
Rashard Mendenhall: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Prediction: Steelers 27 Packers 24 ^ Top

Steelers vs. Packers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads his team to their first Super Bowl appearance since Super Bowl XXXII, 13 years ago. Rodgers has admirably replaced future Hall of Fame quarterback, Brett Favre, in one of the most football-rich locations in the entire country. The Packers were the sixth seed in the playoffs and became just the second sixth seed in history to ever make it to the Super Bowl, with wins over Atlanta, Chicago, and Philadelphia—the top three seeds in the NFC. Rodgers himself was on fire during the first two games, throwing six touchdowns to zero interceptions; but things were significantly tougher when the Packers faced the Bears defense. Rodgers failed to throw a touchdown while throwing two interceptions in a seven-point victory.

Things won’t be any easier in the Super Bowl as Rodgers and the passing game will have to try to perform against the league’s top defense, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The last time these two teams squared off was in Week 15 of 2009 season when the Packers fell to the Steelers by just one point. Aaron Rodgers was red hot in that game as he threw for an impressive 383 yards and three touchdowns while throwing zero interceptions. He added 22 yards rushing and a touchdown. It was receiver Greg Jennings who led the team with 118 yards receiving on five catches, including an 83-yard touchdown reception. Jennings remains the team’s top target this season and leads all receivers in these playoffs with 239 yards receiving. All of the Packers receivers will need to be on point, though, as they face their toughest matchup of the season in the world’s most popular sports event.

Running Game Thoughts: It has been a tough season for the Packers running game which ranked 24th in the league. With Ryan Grant out, the team has had to turn to a combination of Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, and rookie running back James Starks. While Starks rushed for just over 100 yards during the entire regular season, he has been a force in the playoffs; leading the Packers in rushing each week. In fact, Starks leads all playoff rushers on all teams with 263 yards in the three games. However, it has been John Kuhn who has been getting the majority of the team’s goal line work, including two touchdowns on Wild Card weekend.
Whoever is running the ball for the Packers will have an extremely tough matchup as they face the Steelers and their top-ranked run defense. Pittsburgh barely allowed 1,000 yards rushing total during the regular season—over 400 yards less than the next best defense. The five rushing touchdowns they allowed were also a league-best. The last time Pittsburgh and Green Bay played, the Packers running backs only totaled 38 yards on the ground—and that was with a healthy Ryan Grant. Don’t expect a huge game from any of the Packers’ running backs, which could mean that John Kuhn is the best fantasy option among them this week given his goal line skills.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 260 yards passing / 2 touchdowns / 1 INT / 20 yards rushing / 0 TD
James Starks – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving / 0 TD
Brandon Jackson – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 15 yards receiving / 0 TD
John Kuhn – 10 yards rushing / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 55 yards rushing / 0 TD
James Jones – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jordy Nelson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Andrew Quarless – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Pittsburgh Steelers are led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who will be attempting to make history as a three-time Super Bowl winner. Known as one of the most clutch players in the game today, Roethlisberger’s statistical output often does not coincide with the success of the team. In fact, he has thrown for under 230 yards in seven of his 10 career playoff victories. The Steelers are who they are—a defense-focused team with an offense designed to control the pace of the game.
Roethlisberger and the passing game will go up against one of their toughest opponents of the season in the Super Bowl as they face the Packers and their fifth-ranked pass defense. Green Bay allowed just 16 passing touchdowns on the year while forcing 24 interceptions—second most in the league during the regular season. Cornerback Charles Woodson has long been labeled with the “shutdown” tag but the man playing opposite him this year, fifth-year cornerback Tramon Williams, may actually be the best player in the secondary. Both Hines Ward and Mike Wallace will have a tough time getting free against this impressive cornerback duo. Wallace has struggled during the playoffs already, amassing just three catches for 26 yards in the first two playoff games. On the bright side, however, Wallace lit the Packers up for 79 yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams played in 2009.

Running Game Thoughts: Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall has been a fantasy stud during these playoffs, having rushed for 167 yards and three touchdowns in the first two games—and he has done it against two of the league’s best defenses, the Jets and Ravens. While the passing game has struggled at times, Mendenhall and the rushing offense have remained solid throughout most of the season. Though he rushed for 100 yards just three times in the regular season, Mendenhall still ranked in the top-10 in fantasy points at running back as he broke into double-digit fantasy points 10 times.
Pittsburgh has needed to play ball-control offense in each of the two playoff games and will likely need to try to do it again this week as they face the Packers and their third-ranked fantasy run defense. They allowed just five rushing touchdowns this season and five games of over 100-yards rushing by a team. That success has pulled over into the playoffs as the Packers have allowed only 166 yards rushing in their three playoff games. Things could be even more difficult for the Steelers in the Super Bowl as it is looking increasingly likely that they will be without star rookie center, Maurkice Pouncey, who has missed practice with a high-ankle sprain he suffered in the AFC conference-title game win over the Jets. If Pouncey is out, expect the Packers to attempt to exploit the Steelers’ deflated offensive line with Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 205 yards passing / 1 TD / 0 INT / 20 yards rushing / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Mike Wallace – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Emmanuel Sanders – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Heath Miller – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Packers 24, Steelers 27 ^ Top