Predictions - YTD Rk Staffer W L % 1 Autry 46 20 69.7 2 Marcoccio 41 23 64.1 3 Eakin 37 28 56.9 4 Caron 28 25 52.8 - Kilroy 10 4 71.4

Packers @ Bears - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ho hum. Another playoff game, another ridiculous performance by Aaron Rodgers. For those keeping score at home, last week’s dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons improves Rodgers’ playoff numbers to a mind-boggling 10 TD passes with only one interception in his three playoff starts. What’s more, he’s completed nearly 75 percent of his throws while leading his team to an insane 38 points per game. And oh by the way, each of those contests were on the road. To say Rodgers is “red hot” now would be an understatement.

If Rodgers has kryptonite, however, it has to be the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense has held him in check for the most part the last four times these teams have met, as he has only three passing TDs in those games with two INTs. Chicago’s defense is one of the toughest in the league. Only one team has surrendered fewer passing TDs than Chicago’s 14. Rodgers will no doubt have his hands full. Green Bay will assuredly have problems running the football, meaning the game will be put squarely on Rodgers’ shoulders. With the receiving weapons at his disposal, he should have opportunities to be productive enough to pull out a victory.

Running Game Thoughts: Green Bay made a concerted effort to run the ball during the first playoff game against Philly. They had five more called run plays than pass plays, and although they won the game, it was obviously not the most efficient way for the Packers to move the ball. James Starks, though, is improving his play at just the right time. He followed up his 123-yard performance against Philadelphia with what some may consider a down game in Atlanta with 66 yards rushing, but it was his 25 attempts that set the tone in the second half and allowed Green Bay to milk the clock. The Packers won’t make a living running the ball against Chicago, though. Forget about it. Expect a modest game from Starks.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 240 yards / 1 TD
James Starks – 45 yards
John Kuhn – 15 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 85 yards
Donald Driver – 50 yards / 1 TD
James Jones – 45 yards
Andrew Quarless – 55 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Call me crazy, but I don’t trust Jay Cutler in this big of a game. Sure, his very first NFL playoff pass went for a TD last week, but Green Bay’s defense has shown much more than what Seattle’s unit showed in 2010. Cutler went without an INT last week, but many forget that he had a brain freeze deep in Seattle’s redzone in the first half and threw the football into the gut of a Seahawks DB. The defender dropped the ball, but had he held on, he had a chance to run it all the way back for a pick-six. Had that happened, we’d be having a very different conversation about Cutler right now. He has improved his turnovers this season compared to last, but keep in mind that he threw at least one pick in each of the last four regular season games. Cutler has to stay mistake-free in order to give the Bears a chance.

I’m still amazed that the Bears’ offense is as productive as it is with their collection of WRs. Johnny Knox as a #1 with Earl Bennett and Devin Hester complementing him is not going to trigger many memories of The Greatest Show On Turf. They’ve been productive enough, but keep in mind that they have the league’s 28th-ranked passing offense. This portion of the game should be an intriguing match-up to watch.

Running Game Thoughts: No team in the league has fewer called pass plays than Chicago. To the uninitiated, that my look like an indictment of Cutler. But the well-informed will understand that it has a lot to do with the general philosophy of the organization. And that says a lot, considering Mike Martz is the offensive coordinator. So while Martz orchestrates the offense, one look at the offensive stats of the Bears reveals that Martz takes his marching orders from head coach Lovie Smith.

If Green Bay has a weakness, it’s their run defense. They’re 24th in the league stopping the run, meaning Matt Forte will see plenty of action—perhaps both on the ground and through the air. He’s a versatile back who will be leaned on heavily for production. Chester Taylor gets plenty of action too. Taylor receives carries at the goal line, which reveals the confidence the team has in him. As a tandem, both Taylor and Forte are valuable commodities, especially this time of year. Expect a heavy dose of each.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Matt Forte – 65 yards rushing / 25 yards rec
Chester Taylor – 40 yards
Johnny Knox – 60 yards
Devin Hester – 40 yards
Earl Bennett – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 45 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 17, Chicago 13 ^ Top

Jets @ Steelers - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jets should be right at home playing on the road after beating two of the best QBs ever in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Now they face a different animal in the Steelers. Unlike the Colts and Patriots, the Steelers are a mirror image of the Jets in that they rely on a physical brand of football led by their defense. QB Mark Sanchez hasn’t looked particularly great during the playoffs, but has created enough points to get by. This week he will have a tougher road to hoe putting up points on the Steelers who specialize in shutting down the rushing game. If the Jets can’t run than they will be put in situations where the defense dictates the play calling by forcing the Jets to pass. The Steelers are excellent at disguising their blitzing. They can send Polamalu from the Safety position, any of their four LBS whom all rush well, or even corners off the edge. This forces the Jets and Sanchez to make pre-snap reads correctly where the Steelers have the advantage and can expose Sanchez’s inexperience. The margin of error will be small and the Jets can’t afford the inaccurate throws that have plagued Sanchez at times. The Jets will try to make things simpler by throwing some deep fades where the outside reads are easier to make. They have also done a good job of using screens and quick shots to Tomlinson out of the backfield to punish defenses that gets over aggressive with their pass rush. Sanchez needs his offensive line to keep him comfortable. When they neutralize the pass rush the Jets are very dangerous with Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes, but their routes take time, time that is created by an effective running game and great pass protection.

Running Game Thoughts: No team has had any success consistently running against the Steelers who sport the number one rush defense, allowing only 60 yards per game. The Jets have a good offensive line that can make brief holes, but their RBs are not dynamic enough to break big plays. Both Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson lack the explosiveness to take advantage of whatever small avenues may be available on Sunday. The Steelers will play in the box and force the Jets to pass to win.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 200 yards/1 TDs/2 INTs
Braylon Edwards: 45 yards/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 40 yards
Dustin Keller: 45 yards
LaDainian Tomlinson: 30 yards/30 yards rec
Shonn Greene: 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers have the advantage of having played a similar defense last week in the Ravens. They are a little more battle tested than the Jets offense that played two offensive teams. The Steelers will still struggle to score points against a Jets defense that is sixth against the pass and have shutdown two great QBs in the playoffs. The Jets defense is built upon CB Darrelle Revis. Revis takes the opposing teams best WR and negates them - just ask Reggie Wayne and Deion Branch. The Jets will likely put Revis on WR Mike Wallace who hurt them most in their Week 16 matchup with 102 yards. Wallace is the Steelers big play threat, leading the league at 20 yards per reception with 10 scores. Without Wallace, the Steelers will need to rely on Hines Ward and slot WR Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders is the wild card that could make the difference. He has the skills to beat to the Jets third CB Dwight Lowery and will be heavily targeted if Wallace gets lost on Revis Island.

Running Game Thoughts: The Steelers running game has the advantage of being very versatile. Rashard Mendenhall has a good combination of speed and power. He’s a little better than his Jets counterparts because he’s well rounded. By that I mean he doesn’t tip the offenses hand if a pass or run is coming, and if that run will be outside or inside. The Jets RBs are more specialized in their roles. This gives the Steelers another slight advantage. Mendenhall rushed for over 100 yards in their first meeting.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 220 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
Mike Wallace: 35 yards
Hines Ward: 40 yards/1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 60 yards/1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall: 75 yards/1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 24, Jets 16 ^ Top