BAL @ PIT | GB @ ATL | SEA @ CHI | NYJ @ NE

Predictions - YTD Rk Staffer W L % 1 Autry 45 20 69.2 2 Marcoccio 40 23 63.5 3 Eakin 36 28 56.3 4 Caron 28 24 53.8 - Kilroy 10 4 71.4

Ravens @ Steelers - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Pigskin fans have to be salivating over this backyard brawl rivalry that is as good as there is in football. Two physical teams that consistently battle over division rights, have identical records of 12-4, and split their season series with the road team winning both games. Both teams can run and stop the run. This is a field goal game that will come down to special teams and QBs. The QB who can have the most success passing the ball and avoiding turnovers will win.

The Ravens attack, led by third-year pro Joe Flacco, has been improved this year with the addition of Anquan Boldin. Flacco has 25 TDs to 10 INTs, but only three picks since week three. He enters this game coming off one of his best games of the season where he threw for nearly 300 yards and two scores to beat the Chiefs in round one. His leading target over the last couple weeks has been TE Todd Heap. The Steelers LBs and safety Troy Polamalu are very adept at blitzing but will need to find a way to slow Heap down. First downs and redzone opportunities will be limited and the Ravens will look to Heap during these critical situations. Heap may be in his 10th year but he still has the juice to be a game changer. On the outside the Ravens have two great possession WRs that know how to find holes in the secondary in Boldin and Derrick Mason. The Steelers secondary know their tricks of the trade though because they play twice a year and had two weeks to study. It will help, but if there’s an Achilles heel to this defense it is the pass defense that ranks 14th allowing 225 yards per game. Flacco can overtake Roethlisberger for the division’s top QB if he can continue last week’s form and get past their nemesis Steelers that are 2-0 facing his Ravens in the playoffs and 8-0 versus division opponents overall in the playoffs. Weather forecast calls for light snow and temperatures in the twenties. Conditions will give both defenses an added advantage.

Running Game Thoughts: The run game features the quickness and versatility of Ray Rice and the power and vision of Willis McGahee. The combo had a solid year, with Rice third best in yards from scrimmage, but they struggled to get going against the Chiefs last week until the game was in hand. Expectations are that they will struggle again facing a Steelers defense that for much of the season was perhaps the toughest run defense around. They haven’t been as dominant the second half of the season since losing some starters to injury. However, they still rank first allowing just 67 yards per game. The Ravens may combat by game planning more short passes to Rice, one of the best RBs in the league at catching passes. With little room to run and an aggressive pass rush, screens and delayed releases by Rice can give him the room to make plays out of the backfield.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 230 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
Anquan Boldin: 60 yards/1 TD
Derrick Mason: 40 yards
Todd Heap: 45 yards/1 TD
Ray Rice: 35 yards/40 yards rec

Passing Game Thoughts: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 in playoffs over his career including a 2-0 mark versus the Ravens and 7-2 in the regular season. There was concern entering the season that the Steelers could struggle to replace lead WR and Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes, but the growth of young Mike Wallace who led the league with 21 yards per catch and scored 10 times, has silenced concerns. Wallace is terrific at beating the defense deep but does not have the midrange skills of Holmes. For that the Steelers are limited to short passes to Hines Ward and TE Heath Miller. A key matchup will be S Ed Reed vs. Wallace. Reed is the best centerfielder in NFL history and excels at picking off deep throws by reading the QBs. He is playing with a heavy heart, dealing with the recent loss of his brother. Reed will need to be focused when the Steelers take their shots to Wallace. He will also need a successful pass rush from Terrell Suggs and company. Wallace will eventually get loose for some game changers if Roethlisberger has time to throw. The Steelers offensive line anchor, rookie C Maurice Pouncey, is expected to play despite a questionable status. Without Pouncey, the defensive front of the Ravens would likely dominate the trenches.

Running Game Thoughts: The Steelers running game ranks 11th in the league averaging 120 yards per game while the Ravend run defense ranks 5th allowing 94 yards per game. If the Steelers can rush for the 100-yard average the Ravens allow, I think they win the game. If Mendenhall is able to get them in good second down position, the Steelers will be able to play action to take shots for Wallace deep. The Ravens must keep the Steelers run game to less than 3-4 yards on first downs and force them into predictable situations. Ray Lewis and Helot Negate are forces to be reckoned with and can get penetration to stop the run. Pouncey has had a great rookie season but this is where the rubber hits the road. Pouncey will need to get off his initial chip block and get into the second level to cut off pursuit lanes or put a helmet on Lewis. If he can prove himself here in his first playoff game then the Steelers will be playing for a Super Bowl berth.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 240 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
Mike Wallace: 75 yards/1 TD
Hines Ward: 70 yards/1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 yards
Rashard Mendenhall: 75 yards/1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 21, Ravens 17 ^ Top

Packers @ Falcons - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: I wrote in this space last week that Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in his conference, and I stand by that comment despite the vehement disagreement from a few people. Rodgers proved his worth last week, even though he threw for less than 200 yards. But that had a lot to do with the game plan, as Green Bay’s 27 called runs were the fewest since a week four contest against Detroit. Surprisingly, the Packers used the running game much more than many expected. Rodgers, consequently, wasn’t asked to do as much during the course of the game, but when he was expected to deliver, he did.

Atlanta’s defense is ranked 22nd against the pass. They’ve feasted on offensively challenged teams most of the season, including Carolina (twice), Seattle (despite their performance last week) and Tampa Bay (don’t be fooled; they’re still a year away). Honestly, besides John Abraham, who are the playmakers on the Falcons defense? I think Rodgers will have a field day against Atlanta, as he builds on the success he enjoyed at the Georgia Dome in week 12 when he threw for 341 yards. Only three teams have more INTs than Atlanta, but Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over much, especially in the post season. Expect an onslaught by Rodgers in this one.

Running Game Thoughts: It was certainly a shock to everyone watching last week that Green Bay stuck with the running game so confidently. James Starks ran powerfully and gave the Packers the kind of running threat unseen all year. But the last time it appeared Starks had taken over the running duties (after week 12’s performance against San Francisco), he only received 11 carries the rest of the season. So sure, Starks looked great last week, but who knows what kind of offensive game plan head coach Mike McCarthy has up his sleeve. If he’s smart, he’ll use the running game as a complement to the prolific passing attack. I suspect McCarthy will utilize the scheme that got his team this far: rely on Rodgers and the passing game. Certainly, last week’s good showing by the running backs won’t frighten McCarthy from running on those crucial third-and-shorts anymore but expect to see a more normal Green Bay pass oriented offense on Saturday.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 320 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT
James Starks – 40 yards
Brandon Jackson – 35 yards
Greg Jennings – 135 yards / 2 TDs
Donald Driver – 85 yards
James Jones – 55 yards / 1 TD
Andrew Quarless – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan is the newly minted Golden Child of the NFC QBs. Why he’s a Pro Bowl selection over Aaron Rodgers is beyond me, but I think it will be proven who the better QB is in this game. Ryan is solid and doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, and he’s the perfect signal caller for what Atlanta wants to do. They’re a balanced team that would rather not have Ryan throw the rock 50 times in a game. Roddy White will arguably be the best WR on the field this week, but he will face Charles Woodson on most pass plays—the unquestioned best CB on the field this week. The one tweak the Packers may employ is sending Woodson on blitzes off the edge. That’s been a successful tactic, so look for that trend to continue.

Ryan was solid, yet unspectacular when these two teams met in week 11. He threw for less than 200 yards with only one TD, but he did complete 85 percent of his passes. It won’t be easy throwing on the Packers. Only one team has more INTs than the Packers, and only three teams have surrendered fewer TD passes. Don’t expect much of an uptick in Ryan’s production from the week 11 game. He will be typical Matt Ryan—solid and productive, yet unspectacular and boring.

Running Game Thoughts: For my money, Michael Turner carries on his shoulders the burden of success of the Falcons offensively. Turner had a very good season, even enjoying a stretch in the middle of the year when he ran for 100-plus yards in five of seven games. He closed out the season with three straight sub-100 yard games—his longest drought of the year. Green Bay is in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, but only two teams have surrendered fewer than the six rushing TDs the Packers have. Turner didn’t get many rushing attempts the last two games of the year, but he did have five straight games of 20-plus carries prior. He performed well in the first meeting between these two teams, rushing for more than 100 yards and a TD. Atlanta is going to need a similar performance from Turner—and then some—if they hope to win this week.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 215 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Michael Turner – 120 yards / 1 TD
Roddy White – 95 yards / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 45 yards
Tony Gonzalez – 55 yards

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 17 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week was supposed to be Matt Hasselbeck’s last game wearing a Seahawk uniform. Of course not only did last week’s miracle win assure Hasselbeck and the ‘Hawks another game, but Pete Carroll just may now decide to bring back Matt-the-Bald for one more season. Hasselbeck threw for 4 TDs and looked like he was back in the prime of his career. He sold the play action well and put perfect loft on some sideline passes and generally looked a lot more like Drew Brees than Drew Brees did. Resurrection project WR Mike Williams had a great season and continued his rise from the ashes with a stellar start to the postseason. Williams uses his big frame to shield off defenders and/or muscle past them in order to gain separation, something he would otherwise struggle with due to his lack of elite speed. Ben Obomanu has been taking up roster space for years, but is now a vital part of the passing attack. Obomanu plays a similar game to Williams but offers up slightly more speed. Surprisingly, it’s the wily old veteran Brandon Stokely, who was left for dead by a other franchises, that offers the deep speed in the Seattle passing attack. John Carlson who has spent most of the season in a blocking role broke out in a big way in the Wildcard Round, hauling in two TDs - one coming on a perfectly executed “opossum play” where he went to the ground feigning a chop block only to get back up and trot unguarded into the endzone where he hauled in a Hasselbeck pass.

Can the aging Hasselbeck follow up on last week when he gets thrown out to face a tough Bears’ pass defense in icy cold Chicago? The Bears have played the pass fairly well, allowing 224.3 ypg and the second lowest TD total against (14) on the season. When motivated, Julius Peppers (8 sacks on the season) is able to get penetration against anyone, however as has been the case during his time in Carolina, he’s been very inconsistent in Chicago this season. The playoffs should provide some incentive for him to be at the top of his game.

Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks running game was hit or miss for much of the year (and more “miss” than “hit”), but last week provided one of the most memorable runs in NFL playoff history as Marshawn Lynch broke tackles and tossed last season’s Super Bowl hero, Tracy Porter, two yards down the field with a wicked stiff arm on his way to a 67-yard TD run. Lynch finished the season strong, gaining 75 yards in the playoff clinching win in Week 17 and will be a vital part of Seattle’s gameplan if they hope to pull off back to back upsets.

The Bears were the second ranked run defense this season (90.1 ypg and 14 TDs) so establishing a running game will be easier said then done for Seattle’s inferior o-line. Lance Briggs and Brian Ulracher will be flying to the ball and with their uncanny speed and size they should have no trouble keeping the less than speedy Lynch at bay.

Matt Hasselbeck: 285 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Mike Williams: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ben Obomanu: 70 yds receiving
John Carlson: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 65 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Justin Forsett: 35 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler thrived late in the season in the Mike Martz offense. He cut down his grotesque interception rate from 2009 – although his 23:16 TD:INT ratio wasn’t exactly stellar but did lead the Bears to the NFC North crown. One of his biggest criticisms was that he never won anything at any level so a division title is at least a start. Cutler is much more mobile than many think, and behind the Bears o-line and with the Martz offense not being big on pass protection, that mobility comes in handy. While the Bears don’t have a true No. 1 WR, between Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett and TE Greg Olsen there’s plenty of speed and guile at Cutler’s disposal and at various time this season they have all helped the Bears win a game. Second-year WR Johnny Knox was best suited for the system as he has great deep speed to run under Cutler’s downfield bombs, but it was his college teammate Earl Bennett that gelled best with Cutler. Martz is well known in the fantasy football community for his lack of using a TE and this season likely didn’t dispel that belief. Greg Olsen had his moments, but was largely ignored more often than his owners would have liked.

Seattle kept the high-powered Saints passing attack in check for most of last week’s game, but during the regular season they were quite poor against the pass (249.6 and 31 TDs allowed) especially on the road.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte had a season more in line with his rookie year than last season’s injury-plagued effort and fit in well with the Martz system. Forte is a great route runner, with soft hands and was a vital part of the passing game, but also showed some hard running despite playing behind a suspect line. Forte isn’t a special talent, but shows good balance despite his upright running style, and is surprisingly quick in the open field. Veteran Chester Taylor is a solid backup option, who is also very adept catching passes out of the backfield and is at times used in red-zone situations where Forte struggles. The Bears offense has been at their best when the formerly stubborn Martz has called a more balanced attack. In the playoffs, running and defense is a good formula to win games, especially if the Bears get by this week and get another game at Soldier Field in the NFC Championship. With Seattle showing an inability to stop journeyman Julius Jones last week, look for the Bears to stay with a more balanced attack.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 265 yards, 3 TDs, 2 Ints. / 20 yds rushing
Johnny Knox: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Earl Bennett: 40 yds receiving
Devin Hester: 30 yds receiving
Greg Olsen: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Matt Forte: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving
Chester Taylor: 35 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Bears 31, Seahawks 17 ^ Top

Jets @ Patriots - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The New York Jets offense, led by Mark Sanchez, has been hit-or-miss all season and perhaps nothing exemplifies that more than the two games they played against the Patriots this season. Back in Week 2, Mark Sanchez was on fire as he threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the Jets’ home victory over their division rivals. But in a pivotal Week 13 matchup against the same New England defense, Sanchez looked absolutely terrible as he threw for just 164 yards and no touchdowns with three interceptions on the road. With this game being on the road, there is an obvious concern that Sanchez will not be able to handle the bright lights and pressure of facing the perceived top dog in the 2011 NFL Playoffs.

With the Patriots ranking 21st in defense, the Jets will need Sanchez to look more like he did in the first game than the second if they hope to make it to their second consecutive AFC Championship game. Sanchez could be without receiver Santonio Holmes who is currently listed as questionable for the game with a quad injury. While he is expected to play as he did last week against the Colts, Holmes noticeably lacked the explosiveness that we have come to expect from him. Holmes was perhaps the only offensive standout on the team in the second matchup as he caught seven passes for 72 yards while Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller combined for only five. Keller has not caught a touchdown pass since Week 5 but did have an excellent game the first time these teams met.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jets have one of the league’s most productive running games as they finished 2010 with the 4th-ranked rushing offense led by veteran LaDainian Tomlinson and his 914 yards rushing. While Shonn Greene was expected by most to be the team’s top back going into the season, it was Tomlinson who not only got more carries but also scored six touchdowns to Greene’s two. He made that even more clear last week when he had 99 total yards and two touchdowns to Greene’s 70 yards and zero touchdowns against the Jets. Joe McKnight did not touch the ball after a monster Week 17 game.

While both Greene and Tomlinson proved they can be effective in this offense, the Colts defense and the Patriots defense are two different beasts. While Indianapolis plays a Cover-2 that focuses on pass-rushing and containing the deep ball with smaller and quicker defenders, the Patriots’ defensive line is anchored by one of the most dominant nose tackles ever to play the game, Vince Wilfork. Wilfork and the Patriots held the Jets running backs to nearly 30 yards per game less than their season average in each of the two contests this season and they held both players out of the endzone in both games. The two of them may need to get into the endzone if the Jets have a chance to win this game as Mark Sanchez has struggled mightily as of late and has thrown only one touchdown pass since Week 12.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez – 185 yards passing / 1 touchdowns / 2 INT / 5 yards rushing
LaDainian Tomlinson – 50 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving / 0 TD
Shonn Greene – 60 yards rushing / 0 TD
Brad Smith – 10 yards rushing / 0 TD
Braylon Edwards – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD
Jerricho Cotchery – 25 yards receiving
Dustin Keller – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: An amazing performance by Tom Brady during the regular season earned his team the top seed in the AFC and likely a league MVP trophy to go with it. Brady’s memorable year was capped off with a ridiculous streak that broke an NFL record of attempts without throwing an interception as he has not done so since Week 6. Better yet, Brady looked excellent in the Week 13 matchup between these teams as he threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns (of course without an interception) as his team all but locked up the AFC East division title. Wes Welker (7 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown) and Deion Branch (three catches for 64 yards and a touchdown) had two of the better games of the season as well that day.

There is some concern due to the fact that the Jets did seem to have Brady’s number the first time these teams met back in Week 2. In that game, Brady was able to throw for 248 yards and two touchdowns but he also threw two costly interceptions that helped secure the win for New York. Wide receiver Brandon Tate was relatively non-existent in the two games as he caught just two total passes although one did go for a touchdown. Rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski has been a fantasy juggernaut this season but had struggles of his own against the Jets as he also caught only two passes. Meanwhile, fellow rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez caught a touchdown in each game as he caught a total of nine passes for 152 yards versus Gang Green in 2010. Hernandez is listed as questionable for the game but is expected to play.

Running Game Thoughts: Who would have thought that a two-headed monster of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead would be so effective? Apparently Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaches did as they have been riding this duo all season, creating a very successful complementary piece to their high-powered passing game. Green-Ellis cracked 1,000 yards rushing, becoming the first Patriot back to do so since Corey Dillon in 2004 while Danny Woodhead added all-purpose skills to the backfield with over 900 total yards of his own. Green-Ellis also quietly finished second in the league in total touchdowns at the running back position with 13 on the year, behind only Houston’s Arian Foster.

Green-Ellis and Woodhead were inconsequential in Patriots’ Week 2 loss to the Jets as Green-Ellis had only 19 yards and Woodhead did not touch the ball. Both players had big games in the second matchup, though, as Green-Ellis ran for 72 yards and two touchdowns while Woodhead added 115 yards of offense. Woodhead is recovering from a concussion but should be able to play after the extra week of rest between games—he is certainly hoping to get some action against his former team.

Projections:
Tom Brady – 255 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 45 yards rushing / 1 TD
Danny Woodhead – 20 yards rushing / 0 TD / 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Wes Welker – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Deion Branch – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Ben Tate – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD
Aaron Hernandez – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD
Rob Gronkowski – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Jets 17, Patriots 27 ^ Top