Panthers @ Steelers - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s kind of hard to believe, but last week’s game of 141 yards, 1 TD with 0 INTs was Jimmy Clausen’s best game so far in his young career. He hadn’t thrown a TD since week four, plus he had thrown an INT in each of the previous three games with no scoring passes. The slowly-developing rookie certainly isn’t getting much help from and anemic passing attack that’s ranked last in the league. That ranking is even more of a surprise when you consider the “original” Steve Smith still calls Carolina home. When the dust settles on the 2010 season, Smith will have had his worst full season since 2002. He seems to be a shell of his former self, and his play has relegated him to waiver wire fodder in most leagues.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s 24th ranked pass defense looks to make life miserable for the rookie QB. Such a low ranking for the traditionally tough unit is actually a by-product of teams’ inability to run the football against the Steelers. In order to do anything of note against Pittsburgh, opponents must throw the ball. Despite their ranking, the Steelers have surrendered the fourth-fewest TD passes in the league, and they’re tied for the third-most QB sacks with 40. Any way you slice it, Pittsburgh’s defense should have its way against a Carolina passing attack that hasn’t thrown for more than 182 yards in a game since a week seven match-up against San Francisco.

Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart hasn’t been half-bad this year. Even though during the first three-quarters of the season he was a fantasy bench warmer, he’s improved his play and has gradually become a solid RB2, despite the emergence of Mike Goodson. Stewart has averaged 115 yards rushing per game over the last four contests, and with Goodson supplementing Stewart’s running production with his receiving skills out of the backfield, it’s obvious that the two-headed monster attack of the Panthers is the best—and perhaps only—chance of offensive productivity. But honestly, don’t count on much from either this week. No team has given up fewer rushing yards or rushing TDs than the Steelers. They also surrender the lowest yards-per-carry in the league. Add it all up and you have a potential defensive domination on Thursday.

Projections:
Jimmy Clausen – 160 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
Jonathan Stewart – 45 yards
Mike Goodson – 25 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
David Gettis – 55 yards
Steve Smith – 30 yards
Brandon LaFell – 20 yards
Dante Rosario – 20 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Somehow, Ben Roethlisberger continues to struggle to put up numbers that make him worthy of a fantasy start. He came out smoking immediately upon his return, tossing 12 TDs in his first seven games. But he’s only thrown two in his last four games, no doubt crippling the chances of those who may have banked on his hot start continuing into the fantasy playoff season. His numbers have a good chance of being pedestrian this week as well. Carolina has actually been fairly solid against the pass in 2010, holding teams to an average of 195 yards passing over the last three games.

Any talk of the Steelers’ passing attack now must include Mike Wallace, who’s quickly becoming one of the biggest deep threats in the league NOT named DeSean Jackson. Wallace leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, and his eight TDs are twice as many as the next closest receiver. Wallace has made himself a top-20 fantasy WR going into 2011. Roethlisberger will no doubt target the speedster regularly this week with the hopes of catching the Carolina defense napping.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall played well last week against a tough New York Jets rush defense to the tune of 100 yards and a TD while running for almost six yards per carry. It was only his second 100-plus yard performance over the last 11 games, but this week’s contest against Carolina has his name written all over it. The Steelers could have a game plan that calls for Mendenhall to get his fair share of carries, and he should deliver with that workload. He has a nonexistent role in the passing game, but that’s not going to matter much. Mendenhall should follow up his stellar performance last week with a nice encore.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 180 yards / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 120 yards / 2 TDs
Mike Wallace – 80 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 40 yards
Heath Miller – 35 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Carolina 6 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Cardinals - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: With Tony Romo placed on IR, Kitna will play out the rest of the season. The passing game has suffered a bit with the loss of rookie star Dez Bryant. Miles Austin resumed his role as the big playmaker, but two players that have really picked up the slack in the passing game have been TE Jason Witten and RB Felix Jones. Witten has turned his season around after a poor start and disappointing 2009. He is a top-five consideration at TE the rest of the way. Perhaps more surprising has been the Felix Jones’ involvement as a receiver. He has the skills but play time and game planning have never been tailored to him. He has already doubled up his 21 receptions in his first two years making him a god PPR option. Expect above average numbers from all your Cowboy offensive options facing a poor Arizona defense that is vulnerable by air and by land.

Running Game Thoughts: Felix Jones is a solid option with big play ability and a game plan that will look to run over the poor Cardinals run defense. His carries could be limited a bit with the return of Marion Barber. Tashard Choice has earned a few carries as well, so there is some risk of Jones not being able to take full advantage of a great matchup having to share with another mouth to feed. Consider him a high end RB2 with around 15 carries and 5 or so receptions.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 230 yds/2 TDs
Miles Austin: 120 yds/1 TD
Roy Williams: 50 yds
Jason Witten: 70 yds/1 TD
Felix Jones: 70 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Fordham rookie, John Skelton, will make his third start for the Cards. He has been typically inconsistent in his previous two starts that rookies, not unexpected from a rookie. The bright side of Skelton is that he has a big arm that can challenge teams downfield. It was a great sign for Larry Fitzgerald owners to see that Skelton is no death sentence for the star wideout when Fitz managed 9 catches for 125 yards last week versus the Panthers. The Panthers have better CBs and overall pass defense than the Cowboys, so there’s every chance that Fitz can have another good day. Beyond Fitz, no other Cardinal is trustworthy for a fantasy playoff game. Breaston has been inconsistent, Doucet is hurt again, and the Cards don’t know what TEs are.

Running Game Thoughts: If you’ve relied on the Arizona run game for this fantasy season you’re not reading this article as an active owner. They split carries to devour their value, but even if you combined both of their total numbers they wouldn’t make for a equal a startable fantasy consideration. The Cowboys run defense isn’t bad and the Boys will dominate time of possession, probably develop a lead that will force the Cards to abandon the run all together. All these possibilities make the Cards backfield a danger zone to be avoided at all costs.

Projections:
John Skelton: 200 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 55 yds
Chris Wells: 40 yds/1 TD
Tim Hightower: 30 yds/20 rec

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Cardinals 13

Ravens @ Browns - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has been a protector of the football for essentially the entire season. Only two INTs in the last 10 games go a long way in solidifying your spot on the short list of most coveted fantasy QBs entering 2011. But first things first, let’s complete 2010. In his last four games against Cleveland, Flacco has six TDs with no INTs, including three TDs in week three this year. So the chances are good that he can do something of note.

Someone who’s been doing NOTHING of note is Anquan Boldin. Not only are his bad games dreadfully bad, they actually embarrass the owner to the point where he questions if he should even start him again. One catch for two yards last week? Three for 41 the week before? Two for 28 in week eight? You get the picture. Bottom line: Derrick Mason (gulp!) has become a more reliable choice at this point. Start him instead.

Running Game Thoughts: As good as Ray Rice has been this season, he’s been sort of a tease. He had only three TDs entering last week’s game and no 100 yard rushing game since five. Rice’s true value is found in his role in the passing game. He’s an absolute ball hog, as Flacco looks to him with regularity. Rice leads the team in both rushing and receiving and is the most consistent and reliable offensive weapon on the team. He may revert back to his scoreless ways against Cleveland, however, as the Browns have given up the fewest rushing TDs (5). Regardless, whatever struggles he may encounter on the ground should be supplemented by his receiving skills.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 235 yards / 2 TDs
Ray Rice – 70 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Derrick Mason – 80 yards / 1 TD
Anquan Boldin – 40 yards
T.J. Houshmandzadeh – 30 yards
Ed Dickson – 25 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Colt McCoy had the best game of his young career last week, carving up the Bengals defense. Even more impressive than the 243 yards he passed for against Cincinnati is the fact that he has only one interception in his last five games. If there’s a weakness anywhere on the Ravens squad it’s the pass defense. They’ve had a few lapses this season, including the Houston debacle several weeks ago and New Orleans last week. Baltimore won both games, but the holes in their back seven were exposed for all to see.

To be fair, Cleveland doesn’t have the players the Saints or the Texans have, so a similar outcome may be a bit too optimistic. But keep an eye on TE Ben Watson. He scored the last time these two teams met in week two and looks to duplicate that effort this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Hillis actually began his impressive run this season with an unbelievable game against Baltimore in week two. Everyone in the fantasy world took notice after Hillis racked up 144 yards on the ground with a score and seven receptions for good measure. He then became one of those stud fantasy players from nowhere who emerge each year and gives fantasy owners the kind of lift they don’t expect from waiver wire fodder. He’s the lone ranger when it comes to consistent productivity on the offensive side of the ball. Like Ray Rice, Hillis leads his team in rushing and receiving, making him the dual threat we fantasy owners crave. Start him every week with confidence, regardless of the opponent.

Projections:
Colt McCoy – 195 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Peyton Hillis – 75 yards rushing / 35 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Mohamed Massaquoi – 65 yards
Brian Robiskie – 25 yards
Ben Watson – 60 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cleveland 14

Titans @ Chiefs - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chiefs won in relatively unimpressive fashion over the Rams last week. They are in a funk mainly due to the struggles of the passing game. It hasn’t helped that Cassel missed a game to injury, but Cassel has had two poor games himself during their four-game rough patch. They must rekindle the magic between Cassel and Bowe. Bowe must stay focused facing the well publicized antics of CB Cortland Finnegan. Bowe has never been the most level headed player and Finnegan has shown the ability to get under the skin of normally cool customers like Andre Johnson. With Bowe having a tough matchup, the Chiefs will need to attack other areas of the Titans soft passing defense with a balanced attack. They can spread the ball out to TE Tony Moeaki, Chris Chambers, and RB Jamaal Charles. A balanced approach will make the Chiefs WRs poor fantasy options.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles is the key to the Chiefs attack. He continues to produce big numbers without a volume of touches, including 150 yds on just 14 touches last week. Charles is the league’s most dangerous big play threat, including the man facing off with him this week, Chris Johnson. The Titans once stingy defense is just 17th against the run this year allowing 114 yards a game. They are just average this year, which makes Charles a must start considering the roll he’s on.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 220 yds/1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 65 yds
Chris Chambers: 55 yds
Tony Moeaki: 40 yds/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 110 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans have little hope for the playoffs. They need to win out and have Jacksonville and Indy to lose out. Kerry Collins sat out of practice this week with a bad thumb on his throwing hand , leaving Chris Sims to take first team reps. To say they need Collins to play is an understatement. Indications are that he will be a go, but at less than full strength against a tough Chiefs secondary, his matchup isn’t great. He does have a healthy Kenny Britt though. Britt is a difference maker as evidenced by his 128 yards last week. With Britt back, Randy Moss should not be considered as a fantasy option.

Running Game Thoughts: After a poor two game stretch, Johnson has bounced back with two 120 plus yard performances. The Titans will likely struggle to pass the ball, so the game breaks down to a Jamaal Charles versus Chris Johnson running game matchup. We’ll give the winner the crown for the games most dangerous big play RB title. Both should be in line to help their fantasy owners win a championship. The Chiefs have struggled stopping the run the second half of the season. Both are must start options with favorable matchups.

Projections:
Kerry Collins: 225 yds/1 TD
Kenny Britt: 90 yds/1 TD
Randy Moss: 35 yds
Nate Washington: 50 yds
Chris Johnson: 125 yds/25 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Titans 23

49ers @ Rams - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Head coach Mike Singletary is being coy with who will start for the 49ers at QB between Alex and Troy Smith. Logic favors Troy based on him leading the Niners to an OT win over the Rams earlier in the year. TE Vernon Davis played one of his worst games as a pro last week and should rebound with a big game. Michael Crabtree is banged up and hasn’t played well in recent weeks. He has had trouble holding on to the ball which can’t happen when playing with inconsistent QBs that already hamper production. His running mate, Josh Morgan, has picked up the slack, including a career high in receiving yards last week with 106 on seven catches.

Running Game Thoughts: Since Gore went down, Brian Westbrook has been the dominant RB for the Niners. That hasn’t meant much though as they have struggled to run the ball and Anthony Dixon has gotten reps as well. Westbrook could see a bit of an uptick this week as Dixon is struggling with an ankle. The veteran RB is capable of posting a good game here but it’s a gamble. The Rams aren’t bad against the run allowing 113 yards per game. They will have MLB James Laurinaitis focused on preventing Westy from getting off but his dual threat ability as a receiver and runner will post flex to low end RB2 numbers if he can find the endzone.

Projections:
Troy Smith: 200 yds/1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 50 yds
Josh Morgan: 50 yds
Vernon Davis: 75 yds/1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 70 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: This game and the Rams season as whole will rest on the arm of rookie QB Sam Bradford. The way to attack the Niners is through the air, which the Rams have struggled with in their last couple or games. Amendola had fallen off the map until his 60 yards last week. Bradford needs Brandon Gibson to return to form. He is their best playmaker since Clayton was lost for the year. The Chiefs talented CBs prevented him from making a big impact. The Rams must challenge the Niners poor safeties downfield with Gibson. They have been very conservative in their passing game but with almost a full year under his belt, they must cut Bradford loose to win and continue their playoff hopes.

Running Game Thoughts: The Niners are a tough matchup for Steven Jackson. They are tough against the run with the inside presence of Takeo Spikes and Patrick Willis. With the conservative passing game of the Rams, they will be free to focus their attention towards Jackson. Jackson has been consistently average and will need help from the Bradford and company to find running lanes. He will get volume, but there’s little reason to believe he will have a breakout day.

Projections:
Sam Bradford: 235 yds/1 TD
Brandon Gibson: 70 yds/1 TD
Danny Amendola: 55 yds
Daniel Fells: 40 yds
Steven Jackson: 70 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Rams 20, 49ers 17

Jets @ Bears - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: There are some so-called experts and talking heads that say Mark Sanchez is a top-flight NFL QB. Maybe he showed small glimpses as such during the first five games of the season in which he went without a turnover. But he’s done a complete 180-degree turnaround and thrown 12 INTs in the last nine games. What’s more, he hasn’t thrown a TD in the last three, although he did have a rushing TD last week vs. Pittsburgh. New York’s offense has fallen off the table, but is it Sanchez bringing the unit down or is it the unit as a whole that’s stunk up the joint? Perhaps it’s little bit of both.

Chicago has the eighth-best overall defense and only one team has given up less than the 14 passing TDs that Chicago has surrendered. Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards complement each other well and both are inconsistent at times, but Holmes is the better fantasy starter each week. Even though Chicago faced an inferior QB last week in Joe Webb for Minnesota, they rebounded well after the thrashing that New England put on them. Sanchez is not Joe Webb, but Sanchez should struggle nonetheless.

Running Game Thoughts: Sanchez’s struggles and that of the Jets’ passing offense becomes an even bigger head-scratcher when you realize the running game remains one of the tops in the league. While the ground game doesn’t highlight one player in particular, collectively the Jets are formidable. Only one team has more rushing attempts than the Jets, and New York finds itself the six-best rushing team in terms of yardage. Chicago’s defense, though, is a top-five unit that will make it tough for LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to do anything. Neither RB has had a 100 yard game in forever, and that streak will extend beyond this week against a Bears rush defense ranked third in the league.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez – 180 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Shonn Greene – 50 yards
LaDainian Tomlinson – 45 yards rushing / 25 yards rec
Santonio Holmes – 80 yards / 1 TD
Braylon Edwards – 40 yards
Dustin Keller – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler rebounded nicely last week after struggling big-time against New England two weeks ago. Even though he hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards in a game since week seven against Washington, he’s been productive enough to be a nice fill-in for bye weeks and injuries. This week is no exception. Chicago’s average collection of receivers has been as sneaky starts too. There’s nobody on Chicago’s roster that’ll frighten your fantasy opponent, but Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett and Devin Hester are all WR3s that could put up surprising numbers for you.

You would think that with all the pressure New York’s pass rush puts on opposing QBs that it would force a lot of interceptions. That’s actually not the case. The Jets have the fewest interceptions in the league (7), which bodes well for Cutler, who has a knack for throwing picks in bunches. It could be a gamble starting Cutler this week because his INTs can rear their ugly heads at any time, but if he’s the best you’ve got, go with him and hope for the best.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte entered the 2010 fantasy draft season with value that plummeted to depths that reminded many of his rookie season. Struggles in 2009 had owners avoided him like the plague during the first couple rounds, but he’s become a pretty good option as a RB2 in most leagues. Chester Taylor’s presence hasn’t been too big of a nuisance for him, since Forte continues to get the bulk of the carries. And even though Forte is third on the team in receptions, he hasn’t had more than two in a game since week eight. Forte is a good option this week in deeper leagues; in others, keep your expectations in check, since the Jets have the fourth best rush defense in the league.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 210 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Matt Forte – 60 yards
Chester Taylor – 25 yards rushing / 35 yards rec
Johnny Knox – 65 yards / 1 TD
Earl Bennett – 45 yards
Devin Hester – 25 yards
Greg Olsen – 30 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Chicago 17, New York 10

Redskins @ Jaguars - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It was looking like another disastrous mistake from Mike Shanahan and the coaching staff in Washington when they decided to bench star quarterback Donovan McNabb for the mediocre Rex Grossman last week. The former Bears quarterback started off slow in his first start of 2010, but Grossman finished very strong, throwing for 322 yards and a remarkable four touchdown passes. Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, and Chris Cooley were all fantasy-relevant options with Grossman at the helm. During his 13 starts, McNabb had only two games in which he threw for even two touchdown passes—and none with any more than that. Grossman’s four passing touchdowns were a season high for the Redskins while they tied his own career high.
Even though the Redskins lost that game to the Cowboys, there is now reason to believe that they may actually be better off without McNabb. This week Grossman leads a newly revitalized Washington offense against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 10 of their 14 games this season, and they allowed a huge game to the Raiders’ Jason Campbell just two weeks ago. While Grossman isn’t an exciting starter—and he certainly has his risks—he actually has very good upside in this beautiful fantasy matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Torain continues to impress when healthy, most recently last week when he compiled over 100 total yards and a touchdown catch against a tough Dallas defense. Torain missed a good part of this year with an injury, but that appears to be in the past now. He has been far and away the most consistent and productive back in Washington, and that should continue as long as he remains healthy.
Torain’s fantasy value this week may well hinge upon the Redskins’ ability to put up points early in the game and stay competitive with the Jaguars. Jacksonville will be fighting for their playoff life and should come out firing on all cylinders, which makes things tough for the Redskins, who will likely finish in the cellar of the NFC East yet again and at this point have little to play for but pride. Thankfully for Torain, the Jaguars defense has done nothing to show they can stop opposing running games, as they have allowed double-digit fantasy games to opposing running backs in 12 games this year, including 66 fantasy points to the position in just the past two weeks. If the Redskins do fall behind early, it may be tough for Torain to get many carries—but if he does, look out! This has the potential to be one of his better fantasy days of the season.

Projections:
Rex Grossman – 260 yards passing / 2 touchdowns / 1 INT
Ryan Torain – 70 yards rushing / 2 TD / 15 yards receiving / 0 TD
Santana Moss – 65 yards rushing / 2 TD
Anthony Armstrong – 80 yards receiving / 0 TD
Chris Cooley – 55 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard followed two games without a touchdown with five touchdowns over his next two. Mike Sims-Walker seems to finally be catching his stride late in the season, as he has caught three of those five touchdowns in the past two games. Meanwhile, Mike Thomas has had trouble staying involved in the offense after out-producing Sims-Walker through the first three quarters of the season. Thomas has caught just three passes in the past two games and has not caught a touchdown pass since Week 11.
Garrard and Sims-Walker are hot, though, and they’ve done this against two of the league’s better pass defenses in Oakland and Indianapolis. This week they’ll have the opportunity to continue that hot streak against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the Washington Redskins. Washington is fresh off of allowing a 300-plus yard, two touchdown performance against Jon Kitna in Dallas. Garrard may not have the weapons that Kitna does, but he certainly has the talent to exploit Washington’s embarrassingly bad secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew’s streak of six straight games with over 100 yards rushing finally came to an end last week against the Colts, but that doesn’t mean fantasy owners should start having doubts about their stud running back now. He remains one of the premier options in fantasy football this week as he faces a Washington defense that has allowed nearly 25 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over their past six matchups.
Jones-Drew had been on a tremendous roll before he was held to 46 yards on the ground last week, and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t get right back on pace. Even Rashard Jennings, who exploited Indianapolis with seven receptions for 64 yards, has the potential to be fantasy relevant this week against the Redskins. Jennings won’t touch the ball as often as Jones-Drew, but he doesn’t need to in order to get the goal-line opportunities that he has been getting recently. Jennings is more of an all-or-nothing play, but you could do worse for yourself if you’re in a bind.

Projections:
David Garrard – 255 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT / 20 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Rashad Jennings – 30 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Mike Sims-Walker – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Mike Thomas – 55 yards receiving / 0 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Redskins 28, Jaguars 30

Patriots @ Bills - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady will look to solidify his status as the frontrunner for the NFL MVP over the last two weeks. Brady has returned to his spread the wealth style of feeding the open WR since Moss has departed and with Wes Welker still not 100% recovered from last season’s ACL tear. The big story has been the return and resurgence of Deion Branch and the two rookie TEs drafted by New England. Branch is a savvy route runner with sure hands and the trust of his old friend Brady. Rob Gronkowski is being used as a nice red zone option and Aaron Hernandez is being used as a hybrid slot WR ala Dallas Clark. A lot of fantasy owners wrote off Tom Brady after Moss was released thinking his numbers would decrease. Leave it to Brady to buck the odds and actually put up better numbers without his Hall of Fame pass catcher.

On paper it looks like a tough matchup for Brady - although tough matchups have never really been an issue for the Patriots - as the Bills pass defense is ranked 7th in the NFL. While they are only allowing 202.1 passing yards per game, the 23 TD passes thrown against them tells a different story. Also, obviously, when you are the worst run defense in the NFL, teams tend to run the ball against you thus limiting the passing yards against.

Running Game Thoughts BenJarvis Green-Ellis who is having a mostly unheralded very good season, ran for 98 yards earlier in the season when he faced the Bills and should have another fine day. New England features a very balanced offense and a smart coach like Bill Belichick will attack his opponent’s weakness, which in turn also protects his team’s weakness from being exploited, namely its pass defense. Look for BJGE to pound it early and often with some Danny Woodhead sprinkled in for good measure.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 255 yds passing 3 TDs
Deion Branch: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 40 yds receiving
Rob Gronkowski: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Aaron Hernandez: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Danny Woodhead: 35 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
BenJarvis Green-Ellis: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The biggest question for the Bills and their fans this offseason will be whether Ryan Fitzpatrick has done enough to have secured his place as the Bills quarterback of the future. The fact that he has protected himself by pulling off wins the last two weeks, which has killed the Bills chance to win the “Andrew Luck lottery”, has likely helped the argument in Fitzpatrick’s favor. Fitzpatrick has been a real surprise in the FF community as well, and finishes the fantasy season (for most of you that don’t play in Week 17) with a juicy matchup against an improving but still poor New England secondary.

The Pats have started a very inexperienced secondary all season. Second year player Darius Butler and rookies Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung struggled early but have gained valuable experience. Can the Harvard genius outwit the football “genius’” defensive schemes this week? The Bills hang tough with the Pats in Week 3 and with the confidence they have gained in recent weeks, don’t be surprised if they do so again.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills have found some success on the ground riding veteran Fred Jackson in recent weeks after struggling earlier in the season. Jackson like his opposition counter part, Green-Ellis, doesn’t receive the national respect that he deserves. Jackson has built up supporters in the fantasy football community that have watched the undrafted veteran out produce early first round draft pick backs Marshawn Lynch and CJ spiller the last two seasons. CJ Spiller has not proven that he can handle the rushing load so far this season and it will be interesting to see if he gets an audition to close out 2010. My guess is Chan Gailey looking to build a winner in Buffalo rides the hot hand in Jackson and tries to win a couple of more games.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 Int. / 20 yards rushing
David Nelson: 60 yds receiving
Steve Johnson: 110 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Jonathan Stupar: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
C.J. Spiller: 15 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 85 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Patriots 34, Bills 27

Lions @ Dolphins - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions tried to rush Veteran Shaun Hill back into action after suffering a broken finger a few weeks back – much like they rushed him back from his broken arm earlier this season. It’s obvious that they are not big fans of Drew Stanton starting games for obvious reasons. Hill couldn’t go last week however, and it turns out that Stanton played reasonably well in leading the Lions to a road win (after losing 26 straight road contests). It is presently not known if Hill will come back this week or not, but not many people can risk playing either Hill or Stanton in their championship games anyway. Either should do enough to keep Calvin Johnson owners relatively happy – as both realize their only chance at success is feeding the king of the Lions’ pride.

Miami has played the pass well all season, ranking at the No. 6 spot, while allowing 201.4 ypg and 17 TDs on the season. Vontae Davis has developed into a big time cornerback and will be marked up on Calvin Johnson, but he should have a tough time keeping Megatron totally under wraps.

Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have found some success on the ground riding veteran Maurice Morris in recent weeks while the rookie Jahvid Best has struggled with severe turf toe injuries. Morris is not a special runner, but has done a good job of finding positive yards while opposing defenses concentrate on stopping the passing game. Best on the other hand curiously continues to be trotted out by the team despite the obvious debilitating effects of his injuries, which have sapped him of his cutting ability and explosiveness.

For those that are thinking Morris just may be a sneaky start, bear in mind that Miami’s run defense has done a nice job holding down opposing running backs in 2010. They are allowing 96.6 ypg and only 6 TDs this season. The Miami defense is probably one of the more under-rated units in the game.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 225 yards, 2 TDs / 10 yds rushing
Calvin Johnson: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 45 yds receiving
Brandon Pettigrew: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jahvid Best: 15 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Maurice Morris: 55 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: In the last two weeks, Chad Henne passed for 55 yards in New Jersey and lost to the Buffalo Bills at home. It was rumored that he would be auditioning to keep the role of the Dolphins’ franchise QB over the last month of the season, and thus far it seems that he may want to brush up on his clipboard holding skills. On the brighter side Brandon Marshall has caught a TD in each of the last two weeks after generally being a disappointment to his fantasy owners (and to the Dolphins) all season. Marshall has had a tough time dealing with the double teams he has faced much of the season. While Davone Bess and Brian Hartline have had a few productive days, they don’t take enough of a defense’s attention off of Marshall. Expect the team to look to add another playmaking receiver this offseason.

The Lions have defended the pass adequately, allowing 220.7 ypg and 22 TDs, but can be prone to giving up the big play. One thing that makes the future promising is the resurgent defensive line that has put them among the league leaders in sacks with 39 this season. Rookie Ndamukung Suh and veteran Kyle Vandenbosch play with motors that don’t stop and have allowed the Lions to get to the QB without the need to blitz. Under those conditions all it will take is adequate cornerback play to improve their pass defense heading into next season. As for this week, expect Henne to make a few mistakes under defensive pressure, but Marshall’s owners can be reasonably optimistic and expect a TD for the third consecutive week.

Running Game Thoughts: All season in this piece I have pointed out that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have looked very pedestrian in 2010. Even against the worst run defense in the league last week the team only gained 55 total yards rushing. Those that started Brown as a flex option at least got a TD out of him, but expectations need to be lowered for the declining back. As I have said before those lis franc injuries can be nasty, and it may not be until 2011 that he’ll return to being an effective runner – of course he’ll be closing in on 30 by then so Brown may never again be more than a part time option for fantasy players.

Miami will once again face a poor run defense. Detroit is giving up 126.5 ypg and have allowed 16 rushing TDs on the season, but as stated the Phins did very little against an even worse defense last week when they played Buffalo. You would need to be hard pressed to insert either Brown or Williams into your line-up.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 235 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Brandon Marshall: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brian Hartline: 20 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 65 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 20 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 55 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 20 yds rushing

Prediction: Lions 20, Dolphins 17

Colts @ Raiders - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Interesting game when you delve into the matchup. The Colts are a passing team facing the Raiders who excel at pass defense. The Raiders love to run which is what the Colts struggle with on defense. On that basis this could be a tough game for the Colts traveling west. Manning will face the Raiders without his second-most valuable target, Austin Collie. Collie went on IR after suffering perhaps his 3rd concussion on the year. With Collie out, all the other starting passing weapons receive a bump in value. TE Jacob Tamme could benefit the most. He will be the hot read for Manning over the middle from the TE and slot position that is so valuable in the Colts scheme. Tamme has shown himself capable of being one of the most productive players at the TE position the last time Collie was absent from the lineup. On the outside, Pierre Garcon and Reggie Wayne may see a few more targets but not enough to make the much more valuable than their season ranks. Any increase in targets could be offset by the Raiders pass defense and coverage from Nnamdi Asomugha.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts may run more than normal for several reasons. The Raiders run defense has struggled. Rookie MLB Rolando McClain has been average, and he missed last week and may not be 100 percent. The way to attack the Raiders is on the ground and ball control will keep the crowd quiet and Colts defense fresh. Third, the Colts backfield is getting healthy. Joseph Addai is practicing and may contribute though he isn’t likely to jump back to full workload after missing so much time. Mike Hart may also be back after nursing a sore ankle, which could make the Colts four strong with Mike Brown and Javarris James. While all of these guys contributing make the Colts stronger, they make a headache for fantasy purposes. None of them can be relied on heavily unless Addai and or Mike Hart are inactive, in which case Donald Brown carries flex value.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 285 yds/3 TDs
Reggie Wayne: 80 yds/1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 65 yds/1 TD
Jacob Tamme: 70 yds/1 TD
Donald Brown: 60 yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Oakland QB Jason Campbell looks to continue his strong play and get the Raiders into the playoffs. The Colts pass defense stands in his way. Playing at home makes all the difference here. At home, on turf, with noisy crowds and playing with a lead the Colts defense can be a nightmare for QBs. But this will be on grass, wet grass, in Oakland, and Campbell has enough weapons to make plays downfield. Doubtful that anyone is pinning their hopes on the Raider passing game at this point, but Campbell is a solid QB2 this week. Even if the Colts have their way with the Raiders, Campbell will be passing to get back in the game and he easily has the fastest WR corps in the league. Jacoby Ford may be the best bet of the starting trio. Ford can score from anywhere on the field and gets a lot of chances in all three phases as a pass catcher, runner, and returner.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Raiders get their way this will be the McFadden and Bush show. Both will see plenty of action early to try and wear down the Colts offense, create play action passing, and keep Payton Manning off the field. The Colts are really beat up on both sides of the ball. They are signing safeties off the street and have lost players at the LB position. Look for the Raiders to try an exploit the soft middle of the Colts by a steady diet of runs right up the gut.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 230 yds/1 TD
Louis Murphy: 55 yds
Jacoby Ford: 70 yds/1 TD
Zach Miller: 70 yds
Darren McFadden: 95 yds/35 rec/1 TD
Michael Bush: 60 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Colts 31, Raiders 27

Chargers @ Bengals - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite a season filled with missed games by key offensive components, Philip Rivers continues to put up numbers at an alarming rate. He’s truly one of the great QBs today—both reality and fantasy. With Antonio Gates possibly missing another game, Vincent Jackson’s return and subsequent rise back to the top of San Diego’s receiver food chain couldn’t have come at a better time for Rivers and his fantasy owners. Jackson’s three TD game last week was all his owners had been waiting for as they stashed him away deep on their bench during his suspension.

Cincinnati’s defense has been hit or miss most of the season. They held Indianapolis to under 260 yards of total offense in Indy, then came back the next at home and was thrashed by Buffalo’s emerging but far-from-explosive offense to the tune of 449 yards of total offense. So your guess is as good as mine as to which Bengals defense shows up this week. My bet, however, is on Rivers and his gang of receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s going to take everything in me not to lambast Ryan Mathews here. Each week I hear broadcasters who call San Diego games say how enamored the San Diego coaching staff is with Mathews. Yet each week they turn to Mike Tolbert as the bell cow. Granted, Tolbert has put in work, but we were sold the idea that Mathews is the man with the ridiculous skill set worthy of the Bolts catapulting 12 spots in the draft to take him. So please spare us the hyperbole of the man crush Norv Turner supposedly has on the rookie. He did little before his ankle injuries, and he’s done about the same since—although he does get garbage carries now and then.

The bottom line is this running attack belongs to Tolbert. Mathews gets none of the money carries, rendering him completely useless and making his owners (those insane enough to start him) rue the day they selected this dude (myself included; notice my distain?). Go with Tolbert and leave the rookie on the bench. Also, Darren Sproles’ role, while well defined as the third down specialist, doesn’t make him much of a fantasy option. There are simply too many mouths to feed in the backfield, not to mention the fact that this is a pass-first offense.

Projections:
Philip Rivers – 240 yards / 2 TDs
Mike Tolbert – 65 yards / 1 TD
Ryan Mathews – 40 yards
Vincent Jackson – 95 yards / 1 TD
Legedu Naanee – 55 yards
Kelley Washington – 25 yards
Randy McMichael – 40 yards / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Between week four and week 10, Carson Palmer threw at least two TDs in each game. But in the four games since, he has only three total to go along with five INTs. Now Terrell Owens is out for the rest of the season, further putting a damper on his season. But Andre Caldwell is in line to step in for T.O. I’m sure Caldwell is a fine, upstanding American citizen, but the Bengals lose a ton with T.O. out. Chad Ochocinco’s production should get a much-needed jolt with this development; at this point, though, any production from Ochocinco would be a welcomed sight for his owners, as he hasn’t scored in a month.

As it stands, the Chargers have the league’s top defense, so whoever fills in for T.O. will find the sledding rough. San Diego top-5 is just about every statistical defensive category that matters. The Bengals will have their work cut out for them this week any way you slice it.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson is one of those RBs who predictably struggles against tougher defenses while finding productivity against the lesser defenses. Well, he goes against the former, so the good vibes that Benson provided his owners last week will be a thing of the past come Sunday. Benson’s 150 yards rushing last week was his most productive game since rumbling for 189 yards in week seven last year. The 250 yards San Diego allowed to Oakland notwithstanding, the Chargers have only given up an average of 49 yards on the ground in four of the last five games. Don’t be fooled by Benson’s resurgence last week. You may be forced to start him during this Super Bowl week, but by all means, if you have another RB with a more attractive match-up, go with it.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 180 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Cedric Benson – 45 yards
Chad Ochocinco – 80 yards
Andre Caldwell – 40 yards
Jermaine Gresham – 45 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: San Diego 24, Cincinnati 10

Texans @ Broncos - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The season may be a bust for the Texans but the passing game has not. QB Matt Schaub has led them to the 5th-most prolific passing attack in the league despite his two best targets, Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson, battling injury all year. The inability of the Texans defense can also be credited. Falling behind early, such as the 21-0 hole they fell in last week, has been the norm. They often need to throw the ball to get back into games. Johnson is still battling a high ankle sprain, but will finish the year with close to 1500 yards and 10 scores. He will have a tougher than normal matchup facing the Broncos' Champ Bailey. Bailey has been beaten at times and isn’t quite the player he once was, but he is still one of the best in the business and tends to get up for big matchups like Johnson.

Running Game Thoughts: The league’s leading rusher Arian Foster had a rare off-game last week after leaving the game in the second quarter with a multitude of injuries. Foster should return this week. The injuries are a concern but the matchup against the league’s worst ranked run defense can’t be ignored. Foster owners should continue to reap the huge dividends he has given all year long. Even when the Texans fall behind, Foster continues to post great totals as a receiving option that Schaub often targets.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 300 yds/ 2 TDs
Andre Johnson: 85 yards/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 65 yds
Owen Daniels: 65 yds/1 TD
Arian Foster: 135 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Tim Tebow played more of a running back role than QB in his first real action of the year last week. He hit Brandon Lloyd for a 33 yard TD pass that was a real positive, but overall he completed 8-16 for 138 yards. The real plus was that he also led the team in rushing with Knowshon Moreno exiting due to injury. Tebow showed he can be a dual threat by breaking a 40 yard TD run. He is inexperienced but he will get scoring chances if they reach the goaline and this game is expected to be a high scoring affair with two of the league‘s least effective defenses on the field.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver’s lead RB, Knowshon Moreno, is day to day with sore ribs. If he plays he should be expected to post big numbers. He is versatile enough that he gets the between the 20’s carries, short yardage, and is involved in the passing game, which makes him get the volume needed to be a RB1. Even better that he has a great matchup against a poor Houston defense. Monitor this situation closely. If Moreno is a scratch than Lance Ball has a shot at fantasy playoff legend. Call me a skeptic though. I think with Tebow at QB they may be much more incline to use him in his role as goaline RB as they may trust him more and have greater incentive to see him succeed to justify benching Orton.

Projections:
Tim Tebow: 185 yds/65 rush/2 TDs
Brandon Lloyd: 55 yds
Jabar Gaffney: 45 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 60 yds/40 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Texans 31, Broncos 24

Giants @ Packers - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has been a turnover machine this year, and he’s on pace to throw for the most INTs in his career. Manning apologists say a handful of his picks were tipped passes, but whatever. It still goes down as a turnover. Admittedly, I’m not an Eli Manning fan, dating back to his draft day whining about being selected by San Diego. But personal feelings aside, he’s too feast-or-famine for my liking from a fantasy perspective. All of his good games from a yardage and TD point of view have been tarnished by his knack for throwing it to the other team. I’m not sure if I want to hitch my fantasy wagon to a QB like that.

Mario Manningham, remember, began last season as the starter opposite Steve Smith, so his recent emergence and chemistry with Manning this year after replacing Smith shouldn’t be too big of a surprise. Hakeem Nicks, meanwhile, just continues to do his thing. He returned to the line-up several weeks ago after missing two games and has since recorded 13 receptions. He’s by far the biggest and most reliable target for the Giants. CB Charles Woodson and the rest of the third-ranked Green Bay pass defense will be a tough match-up, but I’d still start Hicks with confidence and perhaps keep my fingers crossed with Manningham.

Running Game Thoughts: It took awhile, but the Giants have developed into perhaps the best one-two punch running game in the league. Ahmad Bradshaw, fumble problems and all, seems to be the most trusted of the two, since he has twice the number of rushing attempts as Brandon Jacobs. Regardless, both have been stellar of late and have been suitable starters. Bradshaw, however, is the more valuable of the two, since he plays a role in the passing game. Jacobs is not slouch either. He’s slowly shedding that Tip-Toe Burglar label Warren Sapp gave him as it relates to his hesitant running style. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs are playing too well to bench them now. Sure, Green Bay has given up only six rushing TDs so far, but the weather could be a little rough in Packerland, meaning the running game could take on a greater emphasis. Start them if you have either of one.

Projections:
Eli Manning – 230 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Ahmad Bradshaw – 65 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Brandon Jacobs – 45 yards / 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks – 80 yards
Mario Manningham – 60 yards / 1 TD
Kevin Boss – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers returns to the line-up after missing last week’s game with his second concussion of the season. Mike Flynn played instead against New England and actually held up pretty well until the last seconds of the game. But Flynn’s production says a lot about the system in Green Bay. Rodgers should take that system this week and produce solid numbers. Green Bay needs this game in order to stay in the playoff chase, and for that matter so does New York. So this will be a good game on both sides of the ball. The receiving crew collectively hasn’t done a ton of damage the last couple weeks, so they’ll look to respond in a big spot against the Giants.

Green Bay is going to find navigating through or around New York’s defense a tough task. The Giants field the league’s second best defense, and last week’s fourth quarter swoon aside, they’ve been pretty formidable all year. It’s been well documented that New York has knocked out a quarter of the starting QBs they’ve faced this year, so Rodgers had better have his head on a swivel. I wouldn’t expect big things from the Packers offensively. Jennings can always get loose deep, but will the offensive line keep the pass rush at bay long enough for Rodgers to get the ball to him? That’s the key to this game.

Running Game Thoughts: To quote a famous coach with ties to Green Bay: “What the (heck’s) going on out here?” Several weeks ago, it’s some dude named James Starks that gets the bulk of the carries, followed the next couple weeks by Brandon Jackson with a little John Kuhn and Dimitri Nance thrown in for good measure. So again I ask: what the heck is going on here? This Green Bay running game is a hot mess and should be avoided at all costs. The Giants and their top-10 rush defense is tough enough, but when that’s coupled with a musical chairs approach at RB, that’s a problem. Get away from Green Bay’s rushing attack right now.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 220 yards / 2 TD / 1 INT
Brandon Jackson – 45 yards rushing / 20 yards rec
Greg Jennings – 65 yards
James Jones – 50 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 45 yards
Andrew Quarless – 25 yards

Prediction: New York 20, Green Bay 17

Seahawks @ Buccaneers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: You know your team is in a bad situation when you’re fighting for a division title and you bench your veteran starting quarterback in Week 15. But that’s exactly where the Seattle Seahawks were last week during their humiliating loss to the Falcons. Atlanta’s NFC-best record obviously means that they are a good team overall, but their secondary is certainly one of the weakest points on the team—and Matt Hasselbeck looked absolutely horrible against them. Hasselbeck has now thrown 10 interceptions in his past four games, and that number would likely be even worse if it weren’t for Pete Carroll’s decision to bench him for Charlie Whitehurst during the loss last week.

All signs point to Hasselbeck getting the start again this week, however, as the Seahawks head to Tampa Bay for a must-win game for both teams. The Buccaneers rank ninth in the league at stopping opposing quarterbacks, but those numbers are a bit skewed as they have played poorly over their past four games. During that span, the Buccaneers have given up seven touchdown passes, and they have allowed over 200 yards in each game. Hasselbeck does have a chance to put up a productive fantasy game against this defense, but are you really ready to trust him in your fantasy championship when even his own team doesn’t seem to have much faith him?

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch seems to be one of the few sparks of life in this offense as we head down the stretch. Unfortunately, he has averaged just 11 carries over his last 8 games, and it’s hard for anyone to be productive with so few touches—especially on an offense that struggles to move the ball as it is. Also, he has been one of the more hit-or-miss running backs in the league, with a combined 40 points in Weeks 13 and 15, but a combined 8 points in Weeks 11, 12, and 14.

Fortunately, this is one of the easier matchups Lynch will have this season as he faces the Buccaneers’ 26th-ranked fantasy run defense. The Bucs have been pounded by opposing running backs in their past three games, allowing an average of over 23 fantasy points to running backs during that span. The Buccaneers have struggled even against below-average running games such as Washington and Detroit recently, leaving some hope that Lynch will have one of his “hit” and not one of his “miss” games.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck – 180 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Marshawn Lynch – 70 yards rushing / 1 TD / 5 yards receiving
Mike Williams – 120 yards receiving / 0 TD
Ben Obomanu – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: We know what to expect from Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman, who has been one of the league’s most consistent fantasy players this season. He hasn’t set the world on fire and hasn’t yet thrown for more than two touchdown passes in a game, but Freeman has thrown at least one touchdown and scored between 11 and 17 fantasy points in 11 straight games. Freeman’s rushing numbers are a great bonus, as he consistently adds a fantasy point or two in that area.

He’ll have a chance to add to a great fantasy season in a very important, must-win game this week against the Seahawks’ 27th-ranked fantasy defense. Seattle has been absolutely pummeled through the air recently, having allowed a ridiculous 14 passing touchdowns over the past five weeks while forcing just four interceptions. The only game they performed well in during that span was a gimme game against the Carolina Panthers. They have even been embarrassed by Alex Smith and Matt Cassel for a combined 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. Josh Freeman won’t likely put up those kinds of numbers, but approaching 20 fantasy points is certainly a possibility.

Running Game Thoughts: The consistently inconsistent LeGarrette Blount continued that trend last week with another nice performance after a poor performance the week before. He ran for his third 100-plus yard game and got into the end zone for his sixth touchdown of the season against the Lions’ 29th-ranked fantasy run defense. The biggest problem with Blount is that the Bucs continually give him less than 20 carries per game, making his upside fairly limited even in the best matchups.

This week’s matchup is one of the good ones, as he faces the Seahawks’ 27th-ranked fantasy defense. Seattle has struggled in recent weeks at stopping the run, having allowed an average of over 25 fantasy points to opposing running backs over their past eight contests. Blount will likely continue to get the majority of the carries, especially near the goal line, but Cadillac Williams continues to be touch the ball enough to at least cut into Blount’s production a bit.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 230 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT / 20 yards rushing
LeGarrette Blount – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD
Cadillac Williams – 30 yards rushing / 0 TD / 25 yards receiving
Mike Williams – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kellen Winslow – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 17, Buccaneers 27

Vikings @ Eagles - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie Joe Webb didn’t get the start at QB that he was expecting on this past Monday Night, but did get to play significant minutes at QB when Bret Favre was forced out of the game with a concussion. Webb is a project that was actually drafted by the Vikings with the intention of moving him to WR. However, the coaching staff liked what they saw of his throwing ability at OTAs and decided to see how he developed at his natural QB position instead. He looked as raw as one would expect, but showed his athleticism on a number of runs. Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe are at best merely flex options with Webb under center, as Webb is not yet adept at reading NFL defenses and making throws. In leagues where Webb is eligible at QB or WR he could be a decent flex start, but starting him as your QB is not advisable, despite Philly’s struggling banged up pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson was a surprise “inactive” right before the Monday Night game started much to the dismay of his fantasy owners that had no fall back options. Peterson is suffering from a knee and ankle injury and may have been dissuaded from playing due to the tough field conditions at the University of Minnesota’s outdoor stadium. For those that managed to survive his absence, keep an eye on his progress this week. Peterson may struggle with Webb not being able to provide much of a passing game against Philly’s tough run defense, but he’s still a talented player that warrants consideration even under the worst possible scenarios.

For the second time this season, the Eagles severely limited the New York Giants vaunted running attack. On the season the team is allowing only 103.3 ypg and 10 rushing TDs. While Peterson may still be an option against them if healthy, Toby Gerhart probably is not.

Projections:
Joe Webb: 155 yds passing 1 TD, 2 Ints. / 40 yds rushing
Sidney Rice: 25 yds receiving
Percy Harvin: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 yds receiving
Adrian Peterson: 100 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick’s tremendous season added something new last week; an incredible comeback for the ages. Vick gained over 100 yards rushing in the fourth quarter alone in bringing back his team from a 31 to 10 deficit. I’ve often called Desean Jackson the second most dangerous player in the league with the ball in his hands, but after the last two weeks and with Chris Johnson slowing down a little perhaps Jackson should move up that list. Jeremy Maclin isn’t quite as dynamic as Jackson, but is bigger and a better route runner and also does rather well running after the catch. This is an offense that will be tough to stop in the playoffs. If you have a piece of it, don’t hesitate to insert that piece into your championship hopeful team.

For three quarters at least, the Giants once again showed the league how to at least slow down Vick a little. Of course most teams don’t have the personnel to take full advantage of the “blueprint”. The Vikings don’t have the overall speed at the DT/DE position to keep Vick contained and also lack the discipline that its takes to keep from over-pursuing him. Combine that with a mediocre secondary and we could see another typical big day for Vick.

Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy was efficient with his carries last week, but the problem was that he just didn’t see enough of them. He is a dynamic runner with adequate speed and good hands in the passing game. Despite his smallish size, he now runs with authority which is the biggest reason why he is one of the NFL’s most improved second year players. He faces a difficult task in the Williams Wall – but has the quicks to get outside and perhaps break a few long runs. The Eagles will likely try and run him up the middle even if they don’t find immediate success there, in order to keep the Vikings honest and to try to combat the team from using line-backers to spy Vick’s outside running lanes.

Projections:
Michael Vick: 265 yds passing 2 TDs / 40 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 40 yds receiving
LeSean McCoy: 70 yds rushing / 50 yds receiving

Prediction: Eagles 23, Vikings 10

Saints @ Falcons - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: While Drew Brees has now thrown at least one interception in 10 straight games, he has also thrown at least one touchdown in each of those games, with two or more in all but one game. His connection with Marques Colston appears to be back, as Colston has caught five touchdown passes in his past five games. But the Drew Brees “spread the ball out” philosophy remains intact, as a previously unheralded player seems to stand out in every game. Last week it was tight end Jimmy Graham, who caught two touchdown passes in the loss to the Ravens.

Brees and the Saints head to Atlanta this week for a game that could lock them into a playoff spot, giving them a chance to defend their championship title. They likely missed out on a division championship with a loss last week and an Atlanta win, but the Saints are still mathematically eligible to win the NFC South again. Brees had a big game with 365 yards and three touchdown passes when these teams played back in Week 3, but his two interceptions went a long way toward helping Atlanta win in that game.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints haven’t had much of a running game to speak of over the past two games, with Chris Ivory battling injury and the returning Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas still struggling to get back into playing condition. Bush and Thomas rushed for just 16 combined yards last week, and although that was against a tough Baltimore defense, the Saints surely hope that Chris Ivory will be back in the lineup this week.

Things don’t get much better this week, as the Saints trio of backs will be going up against the Falcons eighth-ranked fantasy run defense. The Falcons were abused on the ground by the Panthers a couple weeks back and have allowed touchdowns in three straight games. But they had been on a streak of nine straight games without allowing a rushing touchdown before they allowed one to the Buccaneers back in Week 13. Atlanta held New Orleans running backs to just 43 yards rushing in the previous matchup, so the Saints would be wise to attack the Falcons through the passing game if they hope to win the rematch.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 265 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT
Reggie Bush – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 40 yards receiving
Pierre Thomas – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Chris Ivory – 35 yards rushing / 0 TD
Marques Colston – 70 yards receiving / 2 TD
Lance Moore – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jimmy Graham – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Atlanta Falcons, along with franchise quarterback Matt Ryan, have had a great 2010 season so far. Ryan delighted fantasy owners last week by throwing for his fourth three-touchdown game of the season. Though he threw for just 174 yards in the win, that’s all his team needed from him to beat the Seahawks, who really had no chance. Ryan has thrown for double-digit fantasy points in nine straight games, and that stretch looks like it will continue through the end of the year.

This week Ryan faces the New Orleans Saints’ third-ranked fantasy pass defense. The Saints have done a great job at shutting down opposing quarterbacks and have allowed only two multiple-touchdown passing days this season, one of which came at the hand of Ryan back in Week 3. This game is likely to be a very competitive one that could come down to a few mistakes, so don’t expect a huge game out of Ryan this week—he will likely be playing a conservative game. Nonetheless, he is also unlikely to throw up a bad game, so he may be just what you’re looking for depending on the strength of the rest of your team.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner fell off a bit from his four straight double-digit fantasy games when he ran for just 82 yards and no touchdowns last week against the Seahawks. Still, Turner has taken 23 or more carries in seven of his past eight games and has rushed for over 100 yards in five of those games. He is easily one of the league’s premier fantasy backs, and you shouldn’t be too worried about his struggle to get things going last week. As long as he continues to touch the ball as often as he has lately, he must remain in fantasy lineups.

Turner does have a solid history against the Saints, including a 114-yard, one-touchdown performance earlier this season. In fact, Turner took a season-high 30 carries in that contest, which bodes well for fantasy owners who need him to do more of the same in their playoff games. If Turner touches the ball anywhere near that often, there is little doubt that he will get back into his fantasy owners’ hearts with a big game.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 210 yards passing / 1 TD / 0 INT / 5 yards rushing
Michael Turner – 100 yards rushing / 1 TD
Roddy White – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Tony Gonzalez – 70 yards / 0 TD

Prediction: Saints 21, Falcons 23