Colts @ Titans - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Considered the “safest” pick in fantasy football by most experts, Peyton Manning has suffered perhaps the worst five week span of his entire NFL career. Manning threw just two interceptions in his first seven games while throwing 15 touchdowns, but since that tremendous start, he has thrown just nine touchdowns to 13 interceptions in his last five games. Certainly injuries to receivers Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, and Dallas Clark, as well as running backs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart have made things more difficult than normal, but there seems to be something off about Manning’s play. He is very timid in the pocket at the moment which is completely opposite to what we’ve become accustomed to seeing over the course of his career.

For the Colts to have a chance to turn things around and make a push for the playoffs, they will need their star quarterback to get things going this week when they head to Tennessee to face the Titans. After a string of allowing three straight 300-yard passing games, the Titans have since held the other two AFC South quarterbacks, Matt Schaub and David Garrard, to 178 and 126 yards passing respectively. While the Titans’ pass defense seems to be on the upswing and Peyton Manning seems to be on the downswing, we should remember that Manning tore up the Titans to the tune of 579 yards and four touchdowns in the two games these teams played in 2009.

Running Game Thoughts: Another week without Joseph Addai and Mike Hart will have the Colts relying on the duo of Donald Brown and Javarris James—what a mess. The two of them combined for just 10 carries and 22 yards in last week’s loss against the Cowboys. The Indianapolis running game is at an all-time worst and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better. While Javarris James did run for two touchdowns in his six carries, he is practically the definition of a “goal line” back and had not scored in the two previous weeks.

Donald Brown is likely to get the majority of whatever carries the Colts decide to hand out to their running backs, but neither he nor James is a particularly great fantasy option this week against the Titans. While Tennessee has allowed back-to-back huge games on the ground to the Texans and Jaguars, the Colts are simply not in a position to play grind-it-out football. It would be surprising if Brown and James combined for even 20 carries.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 305 yards passing / 2 touchdowns / 2 INT
Donald Brown – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 15 yards receiving / 0 TD
Javarris James – 30 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving / 0 TD
Reggie Wayne – 140 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Blair White – 30 yards receiving
Jacob Tamme – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Passing game? What passing game? As we enter Week 14, no Tennessee quarterback has thrown for 200 yards since Week 8. With Vince Young out, the Titans are in complete shambles. Wide receiver Kenny Britt will make his return to the lineup this week and is not on the Titans’ official injury report going into the game. While this news certainly helps the offense, it’s hard to be overly optimistic about a player who hasn’t seen the field since Week 7 and will be thrown to by Kerry Collins in an offense that has made the great Randy Moss look like a ghost. Coincidentally, Week 7 is also the last time that Kerry Collins has thrown a touchdown pass, so maybe the two of them will be able to pick up where they left off.

Making matters worse for the Titans’ lack of passing game is the fact that Indianapolis themselves has not allowed a 200-yard passer since Week 10—and that includes games against Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. Collins was disappointing last week against the Jaguars and their 29th ranked pass defense as he failed to throw a touchdown while throwing two interceptions. Supposedly Collins is healthy this week which could give the Titans a chance at winning this game, but it’s hard to trust him. This is more of a game to decide if he’s going to be worth a potential fantasy start in Week 15’s game against Houston—unless you’re absolutely desperate, keep Collins out of your lineup this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson was considered one of the top candidates for league MVP going into the 2010 season, but talks have died down recently as the Titans continue their tumble down the standings. Johnson has carried the ball just 20 times in the past two weeks combined for just a total of 58 yards—shocking, considering the complete lack of passing game that the Titans have at the moment.

The Titans need to give their best player the football much more often if they hope to have any chance at redeeming themselves by the end of the year—especially against a defense that struggles to stop the run like the Colts do. The Colts have allowed 100-plus yards rushing in 10 of their first 12 games this season. Oddly enough, though, the Colts were actually one of the few teams who were able to contain Johnson during his tremendous 2009 campaign. In the two games these teams played last year, Johnson ran for a total of just 147 yards—barely more than his single-game average in the other 14 games. Still, Johnson is the Titans’ best chance at winning this game, and they will need to give him the ball upwards of 20 times this week to do so.

Projections:
Kerry Collins – 170 yards passing / 1 TD / 2 INT
Chris Johnson – 125 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Kenny Britt – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Randy Moss – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Nate Washington – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Colts 24, Titans 17 ^ Top

Falcons @ Panthers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Falcons kept rolling last week as they held sole possession of the NFC South with a big win at Tampa Bay. Though Matt Ryan and the passing game wasn’t quite as proficient as it has been in previous weeks, his two interceptions were his first since Week 7. He has only one 300-yard game this season, but that hasn’t stopped Roddy White from being among the league’s best fantasy receivers. Ryan has targeted White more than any other receiver in the NFL and White will remain a must-start every week as long as that continues.

Ryan will have a chance to have another big fantasy day this week as his team heads to Carolina to face the Panthers. Carolina has been miserable overall this season, but that has actually made them a surprisingly decent pass defense. It’s not that the Panthers are particularly talented in the secondary, but teams have blown them out often enough that they simply haven’t needed to throw the ball very much. There is certainly the possibility that the Falcons take an early lead and rely on the running game more than usual, but Ryan may have already thrown for multiple touchdowns by the time they decide to slow things down.

Running Game Thoughts: Three straight weeks with a touchdown has Michael Turner owners saying, “That’s more like it.” This is the kind of consistent solid fantasy value that we expected when we drafted him in the first round. He struggled to get into the end zone early in the year with only one touchdown in his first six games, but has since scored seven touchdowns in his last six. He continues to touch the ball 20-25 times per game which is plenty enough to make him a must-start every week, almost regardless of matchup.

This is the kind of matchup that could really make fantasy owners happy as we head into the playoffs. Turner will have the opportunity to run against the league’s 29th ranked fantasy run defense—a team which has allowed ten touchdowns on the ground in their past five games, including three last week to Marshawn Lynch. Turner is certainly a better fantasy player than Lynch and the Falcons may end up running the ball nearly 30 times in this cakewalk of a game.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 225 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT / 5 yards rushing
Michael Turner – 130 yards rushing / 2 TD
Roddy White – 100 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Tony Gonzalez – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Remember when the Panthers could actually pass the ball? It’s been awhile. So long, in fact, that starting quarterback Jimmy Clausen has now failed to throw a touchdown since Week 4. Clausen has thrown just one touchdown on the year with six interceptions and a bunch of fumbles. Steve Smith has completely fallen off the fantasy radar and no other receiver has stepped up to give any sort of consistent fantasy play.

The Falcons represent the type of matchup that could actually end up with Jimmy Clausen finishing with negative fantasy points this week. They have allowed 20 passing touchdowns on the year, but as we know, Clausen isn’t a threat to throw more than one—and they have forced 16 interceptions including five games with two or more. Simply put, if you’re relying on Jimmy Clausen at this point in the season as we head into the playoffs, you might as well concede.

Running Game Thoughts: It looked as if Mike Goodson was finally becoming the first player in this offense to have some fantasy value—but that came crashing down last week when the Panthers decided to give him just three touches on offense. While he turned those three touches into 19 yards and a touchdown, it was Jonathan Stewart who took 21 carries for 92 yards and a touchdown of his own. This was Stewart’s second-straight 90-plus yard rushing game since returning from injury and it seems as if the Panthers are going to give him the vast majority of the touches as we close out the season.

This isn’t a particularly great matchup for the Panthers’ rushing attack, no matter who gets the carries. The Falcons rank 3rd in the league in stopping opposing running backs and have allowed just three rushing touchdowns on the year. In addition to the tremendous job they’ve done of keeping backs out of the end zone, they have allowed only four teams on the year to run for 100-plus yards. Carolina will have to try to move the ball somehow and it’s most likely that it’ll happen on the ground, but this game could get out of hand early.

Projections:
Jimmy Clausen – 170 yards passing / 0 TD / 2 INT
Jonathan Stewart – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD
Mike Goodson – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 15 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Brandon LaFell – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
David Gettis – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Falcons 31, Panthers 13 ^ Top

Raiders @ Jaguars - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: A tough matchup against San Diego last week held Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell to just 117 yards passing on the day. He did also throw a touchdown and rush for a touchdown, but history tells us that there are very few NFL quarterbacks who can be relied on to rush for touchdowns on a weekly basis—and Jason Campbell certainly isn’t one of them. Jacoby Ford continues to establish himself as the surprising top receiver in this offense. While Zach Miller is hobbled and inconsistent, he may be the only player besides Darren McFadden who is worth any sort of fantasy play.

This matchup against Jacksonville does look like the type that could give Jason Campbell a chance at another decent fantasy game, but it’s hard to trust a quarterback who has only thrown for 200 yards three times this season. Jacksonville is absolutely awful at stopping the pass, ranking 29th against opposing quarterbacks, but they have surprisingly forced more interceptions than they have allowed touchdowns over their past five games.

Running Game Thoughts: Let there be life! Darren “Run DMC” McFadden finally got back to running the ball effectively in Week 13 after two disastrous outings in a row. McFadden had run for just 16 total yards in his previous two games, but he got back on track with a 97- yard performance against the Chargers. Oddly enough, though, it was Michael Bush who actually ended up with more carries, getting 23 of them to McFadden’s 19. Both players scored a touchdown on the ground and McFadden remains the better fantasy option due to his receiving ability, but last week may have shown us that the workload may be closer to 50/50 than we previously thought.

There is some upside for the duo of McFadden and Bush this week against a Jaguars run defense that has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns already this year. The Raiders simply aren’t a very effective passing team so expect a lot of Bush and McFadden—perhaps even as many carries as they got last week. If these players are both getting around 20-25 touches, they can both be effective fantasy options. It really comes down to which player gets the ball at the goal line, which seems to be anybody’s guess.

Projections:
Jason Campbell – 185 yards passing / 1 TD / 0 INT
Darren McFadden – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD / 35 yards receiving
Michael Bush – 45 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Jacoby Ford – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Louis Murphy – 65 yards receiving / 0 TD
Zach Miller – 10 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: A big division win against the Titans last week has the surprising AFC South leading Jaguars gaining confidence as they look to make a return to the playoffs, led by quarterback David Garrard. Garrard has thrown for just 288 yards total in his past two games and has failed to throw a touchdown in either. With the Jaguars relying heavily on Maurice Jones-Drew, there hasn’t been much of an opportunity for Garrard or the receivers.

They’ll have a chance to turn things around this week against the Raiders’ 24th-ranked pass defense who have allowed three straight games of 275-plus passing yards. Nnamdi Asomugha remains this defense’s best player and has quietly had another tremendous season when he has been healthy. Whoever Asomugha is lined up on most—presumably Mike Sims-Walker, will have a tough time finding any room.

Running Game Thoughts: What an awesome stretch of games for All Pro running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He has rushed for 100-plus yards in five straight games including a monstrous Week 13 performance against the Titans in which he rushed for 186 yards. While Rashad Jennings has sniped two touchdowns from Jones-Drew in each of the past two games, it has been more circumstantial than it has been by design as Jones-Drew has simply been worn down after driving down the field so many times.

It would be surprising if the Raiders’ 25th-ranked run defense was able to stop Jones-Drew from getting his sixth straight 100-yard game. Oakland held San Diego to just 16 yards rushing last week, but that had a lot to do with the Chargers needing to pass and only attempting to run seven times. Prior to that game, the Raiders had allowed the Miami Dolphins to run for a combined 182 yards and score two total touchdowns. While Jacksonville won’t run the ball 45 times like Miami did, they will give Jones-Drew the ball enough for him to be effective. Rashad Jennings may even get enough touches to be a flex option this week.

Projections:
David Garrard – 170 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT / 20 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 140 yards rushing / 1 TD / 5 yards rushing
Rashad Jennings – 20 yards rushing / 1 TD / 5 yards receiving
Mike Thomas – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD
Mike Sims-Walker – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 27 ^ Top

Giants @ Vikings - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Before last week’s game in which the Giants thumped Washington via the ground game, Eli Manning had thrown multiple TDs in seven straight. He may be called to produce those kinds of numbers again, since there’s a good chance they won’t manhandle Minnesota’s front seven the way they did Washington’s. It helps too, that Manning may be getting Steve Smith back from injury. I’m always leery about starting a player the first game back after a multiple-week absence, so I’d be careful with putting Smith in the line-up. Derek Hagan could be relegated to second-rate status should Smith return.

Minnesota’s pass defense has been stingy of late. They didn’t give up more than 187 yards through the air in either of their last two games against Washington and Buffalo. Minnesota is still inexplicably in the bottom-half of the league in terms of QB sacks. They must put pressure on Manning to force him into mistakes. The anticipated raucous crowd in Minnesota should help that cause.

Running Game Thoughts: Believe me when I say it’s a struggle writing words that make any reference to the Giants’ sheer domination of Washington last week. My opponent played both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs and swiftly eliminated me from playoff contention. I can’t think of a clean four-letter word to insert here, so I’ll move on. I hope the New York’s RBs enjoyed their run to daylight against Washington, because those running lanes are sure to be narrower this week. The Vikings don’t appear to be the run-stopping beasts that used to be, but they’re formidable enough to prevent the nonsense we saw against Washington. The Giants claim Bradshaw lost his starting spot, but he continues to get more carries than Jacobs. For that reason, I’d go with Bradshaw—this and every week. How many times can Jacobs owners count on an eight-carry/two TD game?

Projections:
Eli Manning – 200 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Ahmad Bradshaw – 55 yards rushing / 20 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Brandon Jacobs – 40 yards
Mario Manningham – 70 yards / 1 TD
Derek Hagan – 55 yards / 1 TD
Steve Smith – 40 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: I challenge anybody to try and predict with any level of accuracy what Brett Favre is going to do at this point in the week (Thursday evening). He hasn’t practiced yet with the shoulder injury, and even if he does practice and ultimately starts and plays on Sunday, I can’t see him making any discernable difference in the game. Thus, the Tarvaris Jackson inclusion in this piece. Jackson showed us both sides of his ability last week: three ugly interceptions, but also the ability to run a couple of times to sustain drives. I’ll be the last to jump on the Jackson bandwagon, but he has to be a better option at this point than Favre. Favre has been painful to watch at times this year. He has only two games in which he’s thrown for more than one TD; this time last year he had eight.

The lone bright spot in the passing game recently was Sidney Rice’s return to fantasy relevance. With Percy Harvin out last week, Rice scored twice. It looks like Harvin could be out again, meaning Rice could once again do some damage. New York has the second-best pass defense in the league, so be mindful of that too.

Running Game Thoughts: Ankle injury? What ankle injury? Adrian Peterson ran roughshod over a bewildered Buffalo defense last week. Whatever lingering affects he had from the previous week’s injury was certainly not noticeable to the naked eye. AP feasted on the league’s worst run defense and produced his first multiple TD game since week three. The Giants defense will present a tougher challenge. They’re the second-toughest overall defense in the league, but what are you going to do? Bench Peterson? Plant him in your lineup—tough defense or not, bum ankle or not. Toby Gerhart will spell Peterson from time to time, but not enough to ruin AP’s fantasy outlook.

Projections:
Tarvaris Jackson – 190 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Adrian Peterson – 80 yards / 1 TD
Toby Gerhart– 35 yards
Sidney Rice – 70 yards
Greg Camarillo – 40 yards
Bernard Berrian – 30 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 40 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: New York 24, Minnesota 14 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Redskins - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh Freeman has played very well as a second year QB. While he hasn’t put up flashy stats, he’s been a consistently solid performer each week. Freeman has a big arm, is poised in the pocket and has enough mobility to escape pressure and enough size to be difficult to bring down when defenders do reach him. He reminds me a lot of Ben Roethlisberger on the field – so let’s hope he’s able to keep little Josh in his pants off the field. The Buccaneers are now starting two rookie WRs so there’s a lot of room for growth in this passing game. Mike Williams leads all rookie WRs in catches and receiving yards, while the higher drafted Arrelious Benn has just started putting things together the last couple of weeks. The veteran presence of Kellen Winslow helps keep everything steady and adds a force down the middle of the field.

Washington is statistically one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL allowing 260.3 ypg and 18 passing TDs on the season. As you surely know, they’ll now be missing DT/NT Albert Haynesworth’s penetration up the middle of the line – something he still excelled at when motivated.

Running Game Thoughts: Undrafted rookie LeGarrette Blount supplanted veteran Cadillac Williams a few weeks back and has led the Bucs in rushing this year. Surprisingly, he is behind only Chris Ivory amongst all rookies in rushing yards this season. Blount is huge at 240, but doesn’t run with the authority that you’d expect from a back his size and there’s been some talk that he’ll be replaced in short yardage situations by veteran RB/FB Earnest Graham. Blount isn’t particularly fast either, but somehow gets the job done with his quick feet and decent burst to get through the holes.

The Redskins looked like a defeated team last week allowing 188 yards rushing and 4 TDs to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. It’s tough to imagine they’ll turn it around with only four games left and not much to play for.

Projections:
Josh Freeman: 265 yds passing 1 TD / 15 yds rushing
Mike Williams: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Arrelious Benn: 40 yds receiving
Kellen Winslow, Jr.: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeGarrette Blount: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Cadillac Williams: 25 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Anthony Armstrong who was playing in one of the lower level arena leagues last season has been the only bright spot for the Redskins passing offense this year. He’s an overachiever who has been a nice deep threat and has shown great hands. Santana Moss seems to be aging by the week and TE Chris Cooley has been up and down this season. It’s looking more and more like the Skins should cut their losses with McNabb by not picking up his option and perhaps draft their QB of the future in 2011. McNabb hasn’t been terrible, but he has not really looked all that impressive either. At 34 and losing his mobility, I don’t see this situation getting much better next season.

Veteran Ronde Barber is still plugging away and is the leader of a very young and improving defense under HC Raheem Morris. The Bucs allow 205.8 ypg and have given up 19 TDs through the air this season. If the Skins hope to stop the bleeding. McNabb will need to keep from pressing, which for him can lead to turnovers.

Running Game Thoughts: The Shanahan RB carousel gets Ryan Torain back in the mix this week. Rookie Keiland Williams has had a couple of nice fantasy games due to his pass catching ability, but Torain has been the team’s most effective runner by far this season. Torain isn’t very fast or shifty, but he lowers his pads well and runs with authority. He could be a useful back during the next couple of weeks for teams that are desperate at the position.

Tampa has improved in stopping the run but still allow 128.5 ypg. Rookie DT Gerlad McCoy has toiled in fellow rookie Ndamukong Suh’s shadow all season but has finally started making a name for himself the last two weeks. He can further that cause by stepping up as the Bucs will need to win out to have a legit shot at a playoff spot.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 285 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 15 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 55 yds receiving
Anthony Armstrong: 85 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ryan Torain: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Keiland Williams: 30 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Redskins 17 ^ Top

Packers @ Lions - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: In his five career games against Detroit, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 14 TDs against only three INTs and he’s in the midst of one of his most productive and mistake-free stretches in his career. It’s the first time in his career that he’s gone five straight games without throwing an interception. The Lions have only picked off nine passes this year, so Rodgers could very well extend his streak.

Greg Jennings is as hot as any receiver in the league. He has three consecutive games of at least 119 receiving yards, plus five TDs in those games and his 11 TD receptions are almost three-times the number of the next closest teammate—Donald Driver. Jennings has clearly received the biggest spike in value since TE Jermichael Finley’s injury and should torch Detroit’s suspect secondary getting his fourth straight 100-plus yard game.

Running Game Thoughts: Green Bay unleashed James Starks last week and he responded with a superb game. He played the role of the battering ram while Brandon Jackson played the change-of-pace and receiver-out-of-the-backfield role. It was a magnificent formula—one I’m sure fantasy players wish the Pack had done sooner. Starks I’m sure is the flavor of the month in most leagues, but I’d be hard-pressed to throw a RB in my line-up during this critical stretch of the season after only one good game. It’s difficult anyway to rely on Green Bay RBs because Rodgers is having such a great year. This team moves the ball and scores via the pass. Period. So start your Green Bay receivers and QB, but hold tight on the Pack’s running options.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 295 yards / 3 TDs
James Starks – 55 yards / 1 TD
Brandon Jackson – 30 yards rushing / 25 yards rec
Greg Jennings – 130 yards / 2 TDs
James Jones – 60 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 55 yards
Andrew Quarless – 20 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: The sports radio stations in Detroit have been buzzing this week about the lack of targets Calvin Johnson gets each game. He’s still in the top-10 in targets for WRs, but he often goes long stretches without passes being thrown his way. Meanwhile, Drew Stanton starts his second consecutive game going up against the sixth-best pass defense that’s given up the third-fewest passing TDs. Charles Woodson will more than likely blanket Johnson all game long, meaning someone else is will have to be the primary target. I’m just not sure if the Lions have someone on their roster, although to his credit, Nate Burleson has played well in spots. Brandon Pettigrew remains one of the most-targeted TEs in the league. He’s a must-start in TE-required leagues.

Running Game Thoughts: Detroit is one of the league’s worst at running the football. Jahvid Best has battled nagging injuries most of the year and Maurice Morris is only a back-up NFL RB. The Lions won’t do anything on the ground in this contest. Only two teams have given up fewer TDs on the ground than Green Bay and since Best won’t get in the end zone, can you count on him to give you a long run like the one from last week? That seems to be the only way to get production from him, because he’s certainly not a grinder who gets yards on a consistent basis. Suffice it to say, no Detroit RB is worthy of a start this week.

Projections:
Drew Stanton – 180 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Jahvid Best – 45 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Calvin Johnson – 75 yards / 1 TD
Nate Burleson – 35 yards
Brandon Pettigrew – 25 yards

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Detroit, 13 ^ Top

Browns @ Bills - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: With rookie Colt McCoy still nursing a high ankle sprain, it looks like turnover machine Jake Delhomme gets another start this week (heck he may as well earn some of that $7 million the team is paying him). In fairness, while Jake didn’t do much to help the Browns win last week, he didn’t do anything to lose the game for the Browns either (although he sure tried late in the game, but was bailed out by a dropped interception). TE Ben Watson is quietly having a very nice season in Cleveland and caught 10 balls for 100 yards last week. He is likely the only Browns’ pass catcher worth considering as it should be the Peyton Hillis show in potentially snow-covered Buffalo this week.

The Bills pass defense is ranked 10th in the NFL, but that stat is somewhat deceiving. While they are only allowing 207.2 passing yards per game, they have allowed 22 TD passes in 12 games, so they’ve hardly limited fantasy QBs or WRs. They have played better in recent weeks and have finally started grabbing some interceptions – a strength of the team last season that was missing most of this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Hillis was used as a tailback at Arkansas until the signings of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones moved him to fullback (where he was ultimately drafted to play in the NFL). This offseason, people seemed to forget how he exploded onto the scene his rookie season (2008) in Denver, filling in after five other RBs went down for the year (before he himself ultimately succumbed to injury). Therefore, no one predicted much from him coming into 2010, although at least one fantasy genius predicted (:cough: cough:) that he would emerge from the pack, which included Jerome Harrison, James Davis and rookie Montario Hardesty. All Hillis has done so far is gain 1,398 total yards and 13 TDs with a quarter of the season remaining. Now he gets to face the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The Bills allow an incredible 170 rushing yards per game and have given up 14 rushing TDs in 12 games. Hillis may just be the “start of the week” in fantasy football.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 205 yards, 2 Ints. / 10 yds rushing
Mohamed Massaquoi: 45 yds receiving
Chansi Stuckey: 20 yds receiving
Ben Watson: 75 yds receiving
Peyton Hillis: 165 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 35 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: If it’s not Peyton Hillis, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick may be the biggest surprise of the fantasy season. On a points per game basis he’s right up there with Manning, Brady, Brees, Vick and Rodgers in fantasy football. As an NFL QB, he’s a fiery leader that is willing to do whatever it takes to win. WR Steve Johnson is now famous for his big drop that would have beat the Steelers in overtime, but has also quietly developed into a fantasy stud receiver. It’s ironic that when the Bills have finally found a quarterback and developed a wide receiver to line up across from him, Lee Evans has all but disappeared. For years Evans’ apologists have blamed poor quarterback play and the lack of another threat to take away coverage for Evans’ lack of consistent success.

Cleveland has struggled in pass defense, allowing 231.3 ypg and 20 TDs on the season. HC Eric Mangini favors the Cover 2 defensive scheme which makes them susceptible to attacks down the middle of the field which fortunately for the Browns, may not hurt them this week, as the Bills lack a legit TE and slot WR (since Roscoe Parrish was lost for the season). Expect rookie CB Joe Haden who has played really well in recent weeks to lock up on Steve Johnson, which should slow down the Buffalo passing attack – especially if the weather ends up being a factor.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills have been unable to establish a running game for much of the season, but recently the team has found success on the ground. The entire burden of carrying the running game fell on veteran Fred Jackson – until last week when rookie C.J. Spiller returned from injury. Jackson has done a fantastic job of sneaking through the Bills inferior o-line and has explosive abilities in open space – something the more dynamic Spiller has failed to show.

Cleveland has allowed 119.1 ypg and only 4 TDs on the season so the Bills may have some issues trying to get their running game going. DC Rob Ryan favors an attacking style defense and has gotten good run support from safeties Abraham Elam and TJ Ward to complement the relentless pursuit of linebackers Eric Barton and Scott Fujita.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 225 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 10 yds rushing
Lee Evans: 50 yds receiving
Steve Johnson: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shawn Nelson: 45 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 85 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
C.J. Spiller: 20 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Browns 20, Bills 10 ^ Top

Bengals @ Steelers - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: – The curtain for the Cincinnati Bengals’ 2010 season is coming down at lightning speed. Carson Palmer, the ring leader on this team, has solidified himself in the “average” QB section of fantasy QBs. His numbers aren’t incredibly horrific, but something’s missing from this guy’s game. I can’t seem to put my finger on it. Incidentally enough, he usually plays decently against Pittsburgh. He’s only thrown one INT in the last five games against the Steelers. Palmer hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire with TD passes against their divisional foe, but he hasn’t exactly hurt those who chose to start him in games against the Steelers either. If Carson is smart, he’d go after Pittsburgh CB Bryant McFadden, who was repeatedly torched last week against Baltimore. Whoever he’s covering, get that player the ball.

In an otherwise dreary offensive year for Cincy, Terrell Owens of all people is having the most productive season of all on the team. He’s on pace to have his best statistical season since 2007, and that’s saying a ton when you’re 37 years old. Watch for T.O. to have an impact in this game, with Chad Ochocinco getting the crumbs that are left. Pittsburgh’s defense is opportunistic, but only one other team has had more passes thrown against it than the Steelers. That many pass attempts will eventually uncover a quality scoring chance at some point in the game (i.e., Anquan Boldin getting open in last week’s game).

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson, for where he was drafted in fantasy football last summer, has to rank among the biggest disappointments of the season—a discouraging fact when you consider the stranglehold he has on the running duties in Cincy. He’s never rushed for more than 76 yards against Pittsburgh while he’s been with the Bengals, and that certainly won’t change this week. The Steelers have the league’s toughest run defense, so consider Benson a lost cause this week. If you have a more intriguing option—Thomas Jones? Knowshon Moreno? Jonathan Stewart?—go with that.

Projections:
Carson Palmer - 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 60 yards
Terrell Owens – 70 yards / 1 TD
Chad Ochocinco – 55 yards
Jermaine Gresham – 60 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cincinnati Bengals have played Ben Roethlisberger fairly tight recently. Roethlisberger has two TD passes and three INTs in his last three games against Cincy. Those are about the numbers you should expect from the battered QB, as he’s been known to keep his mistakes to a minimum. It’s been since week 10 of last season that he tossed more than one INT in a game. The Bengals are an average bunch on defense, so that streak should continue.

Mike Wallace has tailed off a bit the last two weeks, but he’s still one of the best deep threats in the league, and he has twice as many TDs (8) as the next receiver (Hines Ward – 4) on the team. Per usual, expect a deep pass attempt (or two) his way. Heath Miller probably won’t play, meaning one of the receivers may have to step up in his place. It could be either Emmanuel Sanders or Antwaan Randle El. I think because of the importance of this game, Randle El gets an uptick in his targets over the youngster this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Those who drafted Cedric Benson were expecting the kind of season Rashard Mendenhall is putting up. He’s the lone runner on a team with a run-first philosophy and whose team will be in many close games. That’s what Mendenhall has provided. He doesn’t have many back-to-back bad games, so expect a rebound after a tough performance last week against Baltimore. Cincy has been thrashed on the ground this year—the Jets, the Bills, the Falcons—so a stellar game by Mendenhall should not be a surprise. If he had a more defined role in the passing game, his value would skyrocket. As it stands, he remains a must-start fantasy prospect every week.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 240 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Rashard Mendenhall – 80 yards / 1 TD
Mike Wallace – 110 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 60 yards
Antwaan Randle El – 35 yards
Emmanuel Sanders – 20 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Cincinnati 10 ^ Top

Rams @ Saints - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford continues to make his case for Rookie of the Year as he and the Rams push for a division title. They took a big step last week as they went into Arizona and knocked off the Cardinals. Though Bradford threw for only 187 yards and no touchdowns, it was the first time he had been held without a touchdown since Week 5. He’s not an elite fantasy quarterback by any means and none of his receivers are a particularly excellent fantasy option, but Bradford remains effective enough to win games in this mediocre division.

He may be asked to throw the ball more this week as the Rams head to New Orleans to face the Saints and their high-powered offense. If St. Louis stays in the game, they will probably try to give the ball to Steven Jackson early and often—but if they fall behind by more than a score, Bradford could be asked to throw the ball more than he has in any other game this season. The Saints rank 3rd in the league in stopping opposing quarterbacks, however, so temper your expectations.

Running Game Thoughts: The Rams’ highly talented running back, Steven Jackson, finally broke the 100-yard rushing mark last week for the first time since he did it back in Week 7. Despite the drought of 100-yard rushing games, Jackson remains a vital part of the passing game and the MVP of the offense. He has touched the ball 24-or-more times in eight of the Rams’ last nine games, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue as we head into the fantasy playoffs. The Rams need him to be at his best as they make a run at the playoffs for themselves, so fantasy owners have an opportunity to lean on the guy who was likely their top pick back in the pre-season.

New Orleans has been excellent at stopping the pass this season, but their run defense has been average-at-best. Having allowed two touchdowns on the ground to both the Cowboys and the Bengals in each of their past two games, the Saints may be in for a tough day against one of the league’s premier running backs.

Projections:
Sam Bradford – 190 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT / 5 yards rushing
Steven Jackson – 110 yards rushing / 1 TD / 5 yards receiving
Brandon Gibson – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Danny Amendola – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD
Laurent Robinson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Danario Alexander – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It has been a surprisingly tough year for Saints quarterback Drew Brees who is likely to set a career high in interceptions by the end of the year. Though he remains very accurate overall, with nearly a 70% completion percentage, his mistakes are piling up and he now has 16 interceptions thrown in 13 games, including a current streak of 8 games in a row with at least one interception. Thankfully wide receiver Marques Colston has been on fire as of late, finishing with 10-plus fantasy points in five of his last six games. As long as the two of these players are working this well together, both of them need to remain in lineups, even if Brees keeps throwing picks.

Brees and Colston will attempt to keep their hot streak going this week against the Rams and their less-than-stellar pass defense. Though the Rams shut down the ridiculously terrible Arizona Cardinals passing game last week, they were assaulted for 956 yards and six touchdowns, while forcing zero interceptions, in their previous three games. The Rams are on the upswing this season but their defense remains suspect—enough so that Drew Brees should find plenty of opportunities to stay a top fantasy option.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory started getting carries back in Week 3 and it took him seven full games before he finally got into the end zone. But something clicked in Week 11 when Ivory finally did score his first touchdown—he has since scored four more in the past two weeks, giving him three straight games of 15-plus fantasy points, including a huge game last week against the Bengals.

We can’t expect that kind of performance out of Ivory every week, but it’s hard to keep a guy that has scored five times in three weeks out of your lineup against a Rams defense that has long been associated with being completely terrible at stopping the run. St. Louis has actually been surprisingly decent at stopping the run this year, however, as they rank 13th in the league at points allowed to running backs. While Chris Ivory is hot, he still needs to prove that he is more than a flash in the pan before he is a guaranteed starter as we head into the fantasy playoffs.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 300 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT
Chris Ivory – 70 yards rushing / 0 TD
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 0 TD / 25 yards receiving
Marques Colston – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 65 yards / 1 TD
Lance Moore – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jimmy Graham – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Rams 17, Saints 24 ^ Top

Seahawks @ 49ers - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The ability of the Seahawks to pass move the ball through the air against the Rams comes down to health. Mike Williams leads the team in receiving yards on the year but is questionable to play with a foot injury. When healthy he is the focal point of the pass attack. If he plays, he could rack up the catches this week as a possession option against the Rams aggressive pass rush. WR Ben Obomanu leads the team in TD receptions despite limited time as a starter. His big play ability has been a real lift while Williams has struggled with health in recent weeks. Obomanu is also questionable with a gash that required 5 stitches between his fingers. He looks on the favorable side of questionable as well. He will be dangerous on quick slants and goes if the Seahawks can give Hasselbeck time to throw. The O-line will struggle to do so but to only take a few plays for Obomanu to get his.

Running Game Thoughts: After several weeks of almost no production from the run game, Marshawn Lynch broke lose last week for nearly 100 yards and three scores against the Panthers. The Panther have a poor run defense and incentive to lose for the top pick next year. The Niners are much better against the run and should bring Lynch and Forsett back down to earth.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 245 yards/2 TDs/1 Int
Mike Williams: 75 yards/1 TD
Ben Obomanu: 75 yards/1 TD
John Carlson: 30 yds
Marshawn Lynch: 45 yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Everyone please welcome back Alex Smith as the 49ers starting QB. Smith gets the job after Troy Smith struggled last week, throwing two picks and missing some easy scoring chances. With Frank Gore out, the Niners want to run a spread shotgun attack which has always been the only Alex Smith is truly comfortable running since that’s all he ran at Utah in college. With more passing, expect an increase in the targets for Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Brian Westbrook. The Seattle secondary can be exploited if Smith is able to shake off the rust quickly after not playing for five half the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon are splitting carries evenly. In a ppr scoring system Westbrook is the better play. It looks spread offence really fits his skill set more than the power rushing style of Anthony Dixon. In standard leagues they are closer to equal plays with a slight lean towards Dixon since he will get the goal line looks. Seattle can be run on but the matchup favorers the Seahawks.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 240 yards/2 TDs/2 INTs
Michael Crabtree: 80 yards/1 TD
Josh Morgan: 45 yards
Vernon Davis: 90 yards/1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 55 yds/40 rec
Anthony Dixon: 35 yds

Prediction: Seahawks 20, 49ers 17 ^ Top

Broncos @ Cardinals - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The offensive game plan of the Broncos is in limbo with the surprise firing of head coach Josh McDaniel’s. Former offensive coordinator Mike McCoy takes over calling plays. According to McCoy the offensive system will stay the same and Kyle Orton will remain the QB. Orton had his worst game of the year in Kansas City but should rebound against a poor Cardinal secondary. WR Brandon Lloyd is the best W bet to deliver the big numbers he has for most of the year. The Cards Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will draw his attention. He has the skills to be a top cover corner but tends to lack discipline. Orton and Lloyd can hit some big plays by capitalizing on his over aggressive style. Jabar Gaffney could be in line for bigger numbers than his baseline averages as well .The Cards Greg Toler has good stats on the year but most of it is the result of teams targeting his side of the field in coverage.

Running Game Thoughts: Knowshon Moreno is in good form the last few weeks and should have a big game. Teams concentrate on stopping the Broncos pass game first. That leaves open lanes for Moreno to run. With so much attention on Lloyd and Gaffney Moreno should see plenty of carries. If any changes come about form the change in play callers it’s likely to be an increased effort to run the ball. The Cardinals have one of the poorest run defenses allowing 144 yards per game.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 275 yds/2 TDs/1 Int
Brandon Lloyd: 85 yds/1 TD
Jabar Gaffney: 65 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 45 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 95 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cardinals struggles at QB look to continue with third string rookie John Skelton likely to start this week. Skelton is scouted as a big strong QB with a good arm, but a project that needs some seasoning before catching up to professional defenses. The Broncos should blitz him early and often to make sure he never gets comfortable. His play selection will be limited to easy read short dump offs and isolation deep passes on the outside. Most teams avoid letting inexperienced QBs throw over the middle. Larry Fitzgerald could struggle to make an impact with a limited QB and coverage from Champ Bailey, Whom just shutdown the league’s hottest WR Dwayne Bowe last week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cardinals will want to run the ball to keep pressure off Skelton. The problem is their running game has not been effective for the majority of the season. Neither Beanie Wells nor Tim Hightower has been able to find running room. They have a shot of having an effective day since the Broncos struggle to stop the run. It comes down to the score of the game. If the Cards play inspired defense and keep the game close, Wells physical style can reap rewards. The Broncos have shown the ability to score this year, and have the best QB in this game. The Cards have never found an offensive rhythm and are down to a third string rookie in his first start. The Broncos will eventually put up enough points to force the cards into a one dimensional passing attack.

Projections:
John Skelton: 185 yds/2 INTs
Larry Fitzgerald: 55 yards
Steve Breaston: 75 yds
Chris Wells: 60 yds/1 TD
Tim Hightower: 35 yds/25 rec

Prediction: Broncos 27, Cardinals 13 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Jets - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The current buzz is that Chad Henne will be auditioning for his future with the Dolphins over these last four weeks. He has had an erratic season and the coaching staff is unhappy with his poor decision making and high turnover rate. WR Brandon Marshall hasn’t quite made the impact for his new team that they were hoping for when they traded two second round picks for the receiver and signed him to a big money extension. He has consistently seen double teams and hasn’t been able to make big plays after the catch like he did as a Bronco. In Week 3 he lit up the Jets and had his best game of the season, but that was with Darrelle Revis sitting out with a hamstring injury. Slot WR Davone Bess has been the Phins most consistent WR this season and also had a real nice game in Week 3. Bess isn’t particularly fast, but runs great routes and catches almost everything thrown his way – he should be in for another nice week as the Jets are weak up the middle of the defense.

Darrelle Revis has been lights out since his return from his hamstring injury and should have little trouble with Marshall – assuming Marshall is even able to come back this week from his own injury which has caused him to miss the last two weeks. Overall the Jets secondary (particularly the safeties) has been exposed for much of the season. Opposing teams have been successful attacking them with TEs and slot WRs up the middle and avoiding sideline patterns where Revis and Cromartie roam. Tom Brady ate the unit alive this past week. While Chad Henne has had some success against them at times in the past two seasons, they have to be happy to see a tremendous downgrade this week at opposing QB with the defense desperately needing to make a statement.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jets run defense has been practically impenetrable for most of the season, with a few exceptions (including their last game on Monday Night). On the season they are only allowing 87 rushing yards per game and have allowed 8 rushing TDs. Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams have been successful against them in the past, but both are struggling mightily in 2010 and will likely find little running room against an angry Jets defense.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 245 yds passing, 2 TDs, 3 Ints.
Brandon Marshall: 45 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 40 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Anthony Fasano: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown: 55 yds rushing
Ricky Williams: 20 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: At times this season Mark Sanchez has looked like a franchise QB that can lead a team to a Super Bowl. Other times he looks like he did in Foxboro – like a lost little boy that wandered onto the field and couldn’t get out of the way of a charging line-backer. The Jets will need him to quickly regain his confidence and get back to being the guy that led his team to some improbable come from behind victories this season. When he’s on his game, Sanchez has the weapons to put up nice numbers. Santonio Holmes has been Sanchez’ main target since coming back from suspension, and can take over a game when he gets the ball in the right place – as he has superb run after the catch ability. The stone handed version of Braylon Edwards that hadn’t reared its ugly head much in 2010 was back on Monday Night and it was ugly. Look for the Jets to take a shot deep with Edwards early in this game in order to turn him back around as they’ll need his presence down the stretch to keep the offense flowing.

Vontae Davis will likely cover Edwards which may cause him some issues but should also open things up for the other Jet targets. Davis is Miami’s top coverage defensive back and has helped the team limit their opposition to 201 ypg. Miami has allowed 15 passing TDs on the season though so they aren’t necessarily a fantasy red flag.

Running Game Thoughts: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have not put up huge numbers individually in recent week, but together they’ve given the Jets a solid ground attack. While the Jets aren’t necessarily the “ground and pound” attack they were last season as the December winds start blowing in the Meadowlands, don’t be surprised if the team starts drifting back that way.

The Jets will not have an easy time with Miami however. The Dolphins are allowing only 99.6 ypg and have only given up 6 rushing TDs. The battle in the trenches is usually fierce when these two teams meet up and that should be the case once this Sunday. If the Jets get their running game going, they should be able to bounce back from last week’s embarrassing defeat.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 10 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 15 yds receiving
Santonio Holmes: 75 yds receving
Dustin Keller: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shonn Greene: 55 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
LaDainian Tomlinson: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 17 ^ Top

Patriots @ Bears - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady is in the midst of one the best stretches of his career. Even in his magical 2007, Brady didn’t enjoy a seven-game stretch in which he went without an interception the way he is in 2010. In fact, he’s only thrown two in the last 10 games, and both of those were in the same game against Baltimore. Bottom line: he’s as hot as a QB can get, having thrown 15 TDs in his last five games. Brady is the weekly no-doubt fantasy stud for the Patriots; it’s his receivers that throw fantasy owners for a loop. Each game it seems a different receiving option steps up, including both rookie TEs. Taking a guess as to who’s going to be the top-dog receiver is a crap shoot. But the way Brady’s playing, all of his WRs and TEs should be top-notch starters under the right circumstances.

Chicago has a tough pass defense, including a relentless pass rush that keeps QBs on high alert. The Bears have surrendered the second-lowest passing TDs in the league with nine. But the New York Jets entered last week’s game against the Patrioits with nine passing TDs allowed and Brady smoked them. Chicago plays a lot more conservative style of defense, so there’ll probably be less potential for big plays against the Bears.

Running Game Thoughts: New England is no real threat to gash teams with the running game. They run only when necessary. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is always a sneaky start because he gets the goal line carries. Plus, he’s scored in three straight games. And don’t let the fact that Chicago is statistically the second-best run defense in the league; New England is on fire and there’s no way you bench the components of the league’s hottest offensive team during what for most of us is week 1 of the playoffs. Start BJGE and expect modest yardage totals but a score (or two).

Projections:
Tom Brady – 285 yards / 2 TDs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 70 yards / 1 TD
Danny Woodhead – 30 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Deion Branch – 75 yards / 1 TD
Wes Welker – 60 yards
Aaron Hernandez – 50 yards
Rob Gronkowski – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has surprisingly taken care of the football recently. He hasn’t thrown a pick the last two games, but he’s yet to go three straight without an interception in his career. And that should hold true this week, because I’m sure that Bill Belichick-coached defensive secondary will force the impatient Cutler into a mistake or two. No defense has been thrown on more than New England, but they were able to hold up against Mark Sanchez last Monday night. Cutler should put up nice yardage, but his potential to throw a couple to the opposition may hurt his value heading into this contest.

I’ve held firm in my beliefs this year that Cutler’s ascension to the next level of QBs has been stunted because of a lack of quality and reliable wide-outs. Cutler is a very good QB; just not one that can elevate the play of practically any WR like a Brady or Peyton or Brees can. But even though he’s none of those three, he should still at least be a solid weekly fantasy QB. Is he that? Perhaps to those willing to gamble week after week. He’s more of a top-flight #2 QB—especially this week.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s amazing that Chicago has the good record it does, considering the bottom-feeder statistics they have offensively. They’re 22nd in the league rushing the football and 29th overall. Yet somehow the run game is productive enough to keep the offense above water for the most part every week. Matt Forte is a hit-or-miss candidate every week; he gets carries but doesn’t do a whole lot with them. Only once has he had a game with more than 100 yards in the last seven contests. He’s a threat in the passing game, which certainly supplements his overall value. He’s a low-end #2 this week, so proceed accordingly.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 210 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Matt Forte – 65 yards rushing / 25 yards rec / 1 rec TD
Chester Taylor – 30 yards rushing
Johnny Knox – 60 yards
Devin Hester – 45 yards
Earl Bennett – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 50 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: New England 21, Chicago 20 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Chargers - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The seemingly unstoppable roll of Cassel to Bowe came to a screeching halt against the Broncos as Champ Bailey sealed his pro bowl credentials by shutting out the league’s hottest WR for the first time In 46 games. Don’t blame Cassel. He still had a decent day and leads the league with just four INTs. Bowe will have to start a new streak this week and it won't be with Cassel. Brodie Croyle will step in for the appendix-less Cassel for Week 14 and perhaps beyond. Croyle and Bowe won't be shutout but neither is likely to explode on the Chargers 5th ranked pass defense. With Bowe in a tough matchup, the Chiefs will once again lean on Dexter McCluster who had over a hundred all-purpose yards in his return last week after a five week absence. McCluster and Charles both excel at turning short safe passes into big plays. The will have a big advantage over the slower safeties and LBs of the Chargers.

Running Game Thoughts: The split in carries has favored Jamaal Charles over Thomas Jones in recent week. Charles has 120 yards last week to Jones’ 50. The Chargers run defense lat them down last week but has been solid for the most part. They will have their hands full against the NFL’s best rushing offense that averages 175 yards per game. They aren’t likely to reach that this week but Charles has the ability to make big plays against any rush defense. Thomas Jones could struggle though as he may be wearing down on legs that have him on the verge on 10,000 career rushing yards.

Projections:
Brodie Croyle: 225 yards/1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 65 yards
Dexter McCluster: 75 yards
Tony Moeaki: 40 yds/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 80 yds/40 rec/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 40 yds/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: After riding the arm of Philip Rivers for five straight wins, the loss of offensive weapons finally caught up to the Chargers. Without his top three WRs Rivers struggled for the first time all year to move the ball through the air. They don’t get much of a reprieve this week facing a Chiefs secondary coming off their best game of the year in shutting down the Denver offense. While top cover corner Brandon Flowers played while hobbled on a bad hamstring, fellow young corner Brandon Carr stepped up and played lights out. In addition to the young duo at CB, Eric Berry has shined as their first round safety. Berry is approaching 100 tackles and has shown himself to be a budding star in his own right. For the Chargers to get back on track they will need to get some of their WRs back on the field. Malcom Floyd is looking close to 100 percent. Legedu Naanee is out with a hamstring pull of his own. Vincent Jackson is the wild card. He is questionable to return after missing two weeks with a calf strain. They need the big body of Jackson to make big plays and compensate for Antonio Gates being a shell of himself. He’s the one player that can beat tight coverage that the Chiefs will have by his sheer athletic ability.

Running Game Thoughts: With a beat up receiving core the Chargers may turn to their running game. They have both Tolbert and Mathews healthy and ready to carry the load. With the Chiefs running game able to grind out long drives, the Chargers offense must control some clock of their own. The Running game and short passes to bring the defense up will help open up the Chief secondary for the downfield play action passes. Tolbert will be the workhorse and goal line back but Mathews could see close to half the carries. The Chiefs are 11th against the run so both teams could struggle to score in tough division games that tend to be physical defensive battles.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 260 yds/2 TDs
Malcom Floyd: 60 yds/1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 55 yds/1 TD
Antonio Gates: 45 yds
Ryan Mathews: 40 yds/20 rec
Mike Tolbert: 65 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Chargers 24, Chiefs 20 ^ Top

Eagles @ Cowboys - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick is leading all vote getting in the Pro-Bowl fan balloting and rightfully so. He is having a marvelous season, and is finally living up to his status as the ultimate weapon – he can beat you with his legs of course, but now he can also light up your secondary with deep and accurate passing. He’s blessed with two young dynamic WRs in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Each is lightening quick and deadly after the catch runners. The book on Vick, which teams have yet to take full advantage of but soon may, is to blitz him from the left side so that he is forced to roll to his right. Once he does so, he no longer looks to pass and takes off – so in that light the defense should have a few defenders there waiting for him. The trouble is that he’s so muck quicker and faster than most defenders that he can still break free and there’s always the possibility that he adjusts to this treatment by learning to throw even when he rolls to the right.

The Cowboys can bring pressure on Vick, but the loss of DE Marcus Spears a few weeks back takes away one of the Cowboys more athletic line-men that could have helped contain Vick. Dallas was able to pick off Peyton Manning three times last week, but Vick has not shown a propensity to make mistakes this season. The Boys are allowing 254.1 ypg and has given up 25 passing TDs on the season – so the potential is there for another big game by Vick.

Running Game Thoughts: The “established” player that I was probably most wrong about heading into the 2010 season was LeSean McCoy. I was very unimpressed with him last season, as I saw him as a player that danced around too much in the backfield and made to many unnecessary moves instead of just taking the yards that were available to him. He’s a different runner this season and I’ve been very impressed with his turnaround. He is a dynamic runner with adequate speed and good hands in the passing game, and is running with authority this season. Perhaps he is the next Brian Westbrook for the Eagles after all.

The Cowboys do play the run reasonably well, as they have allowed 107.8 rushing yards per game and 10 rushing TDs on the season. Of course this week the Eagles present a whole different challenge than most other teams, as the Cowboys will need to stop both RB LeSean McCoy and QB Michael Vick from gaining big chunks of yards on the ground. The dual threat of Vick makes teams forget that there’s another runner in the backfield at times.

Projections:
Michael Vick: 265 yds passing 2 TDs / 35 yds rushing, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 115 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 45 yds receiving
LeSean McCoy: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Jon Kitna has played quite well since replacing Tony Romo, particularly over the last three weeks where he has cut down on his turnovers. Roy Williams and Miles Austin go back to being the top two wide-outs now that Dez Bryant is lost for the season with a broken ankle. The Cowboys still pass enough to warrant multiple relevant fantasy targets, but with a new found focus on the running game and TE Jason Witten also a factor, Roy Williams is likely only an option for the more desperate fantasy owner.

The Eagles have been a poor defense against the pass and things have only been getting worse as injuries are starting to mount. They are allowing 223.0 ypg game and 24 TDs through the air in 2010.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys are finally doing the right thing in trying to establish a running game. Last week it was a very effective strategy against a poor Colts run defense and both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice had very productive afternoons. Choice in particular impressed going for 100 yards and a TD while assuming the Marion Barber role while Barber missed time. Choice is a hard runner who is much more explosive than Barber at this stage of Barber’s career, and could be a real boon down the stretch to fantasy owners (as he was in 2008) should Barber continue to miss games.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 285 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Roy Williams: 75 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Felix Jones: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Tashard Choice: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD

Prediction: Eagles 34, Cowboys 28 ^ Top

Ravens @ Texans - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Ravens lost a tough one to the Steelers in Week 13, but it’s hard to blame Joe Flacco for that. His 266 yards and a touchdown were enough to keep his team in the game and he avoided throwing the game away against one of the league’s best defenses. Nevertheless, Flacco remains one of the league’s most consistently solid fantasy quarterbacks this season, having scored between 12-22 fantasy points in each of his past ten games. Flacco will likely be without tight end Todd Heap this week, but don’t let that fool you—he remains one of the premier options this week at quarterback.

He has thrown for 300 yards only once this season, but that number could very easily go to two this week as his Ravens face the Texans and their league-worst pass defense. Houston has allowed an unbelievable average of 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this the opportunity that Joe Flacco owners have been waiting for. If Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason can find holes in this secondary the same way that other receivers have this year, there is no reason to believe that Flacco won’t be able to connect with them many, many times.

Running Game Thoughts: The up-and-down season for Ray Rice continued last week, a down week, as he took just nine carries for 32 yards, adding just 18 yards receiving, with no touchdowns. The poor performance against Pittsburgh marked the sixth time this season that Rice has been held under 10 fantasy points—a far cry from what we expected out of him coming into the season.

Though the Steelers represent a far tougher matchup than do the Texans, it’s worth noting that Rice has only scored three rushing touchdowns this season while breaking 100 yards on the ground only once. He remains an important enough part of the passing game that he warrants being started weekly in most leagues, but the expectations at this point are about 100 total yards and no touchdowns. If you have better options, don’t be afraid to start them.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 325 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT
Ray Rice – 65 yards rushing / 0 TD / 45 yards receiving
Willis McGahee – 15 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
Anquan Boldin – 105 yards receiving / 1 TD
Derrick Mason – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Ed Dickson – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Schaub’s fantasy value has been on the rise in recent weeks with four straight solid fantasy performances of 14-plus points. He has, however, taken some big hits in those games, including a vicious toss to the ground near the end of the first half of last week’s game against the Eagles. Schaub’s head bounced violently off the turf and it looked like he may have suffered a bad injury. Thankfully, the injury appeared to be minor and he was able to return to the game, but the pass protection is a growing concern in Houston.

Worse yet for the Texans and Matt Schaub is that they will have to face Baltimore and their ferocious pass-rush. Terrell Suggs is one of the game’s elite sack-artists and Haloti Ngata made Ben Roethlisberger’s nose look like Owen Wilson’s after a hit in their game last week. Schaub will need his offensive line to step up their game if he hopes to make it all the way through this game. It’d also help if Andre Johnson could continue to get open and give him a safety blanket during times of danger.

Running Game Thoughts: The league’s top-scoring fantasy running back just continues to roll, seemingly regardless of his competition. Foster is on an unbelievable roll with 20-plus fantasy points in six of his past seven games. His 15 total touchdowns are a league best and his 479 yards receiving are second best in the league, making him one of the league’s best dual-threat players. It seems that no matter who he faces, he just keeps on extending his league-leading fantasy point total.

He’ll have a chance to prove it one more time this week against an always solid Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks 6th in the league in stopping opposing running backs. The Ravens have only allowed three teams to rush for 100-plus yards against them this season and they have done an excellent job of stopping running backs in the passing game as well. That said, Foster is way too hot to be out of anyone’s lineup, especially down the stretch. While this isn’t the ideal matchup, he has done serious damage against some of the league’s best defenses already this year—who’s to say he won’t do it again?

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 240 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Arian Foster – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Andre Johnson – 105 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jacoby Jones – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Houston 17 ^ Top