Patriots @ Lions - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: While Tom Brady isn’t enjoying a season with eye-popping stats a la 2007, he is in the midst of one of the finest stretches of his career. Brady has not thrown an interception in five consecutive games—a first time for everything. And while there was a stretch of games earlier this season when he tossed only one TD in four straight, he’s now picked up the pace, throwing for multiple TDs in three straight. This all points to a patented Brady explosion of epic proportion. Remember two weeks ago when he threw for 350 yards and 3 TDs against Pittsburgh on the road? If he can do that against one of the toughest defenses in the league, imagine what Thursday will look like once he battles Detroit.

It’s a shot in the dark trying to figure out which receiving option to choose on New England’s roster. For four consecutive weeks the Patriots have had four different leading receivers. That’s got to be a frustrating scenario for those relying on New England players NOT named Tom Brady. Wes Welker’s role has certainly changed since Randy Moss’ departure, and his owners are left to daydream about the productive years while trying to figure out a way to get production from other players. Again, it’s a toss-up relative to what New England receiver will lead the way in any given game. The only logical advice I can impart is to go with whatever Patriot receiving option you have, since any one of them could have a huge game.

Running Game Thoughts: BenJarvus Green-Ellis scares me... really. He could dazzle us with productive play then come back the next week and lay an egg - that’s what happened several weeks ago. Coming off an impressive performance against Minnesota (117 yards and two TDs), BJGE followed up against a supposed “inferior opponent” in Cleveland and promptly ran for 14 yards on nine carries with zero TDs. A similar scenario is upon us this week. BJGE had a good game last week against Indy; now plays a suspect defense. He’s New England’s only true RB threat. Perhaps he can start another streak much like the one earlier in the season in which he ran for scores in five consecutive games. Perhaps the Lions’ 26th-ranked run defense will surprise. The former is far more likely in my opinion than the latter. If injuries or ineffectiveness are concerns for your fantasy roster, you could do much worse than BJGE. In a tight spot, I’d say start him.

Projections:
Tom Brady – 320 yards / 3 TDs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 95 yards / 1 TD
Deion Branch – 110 yards / 1 TD
Wes Welker – 75 yards / 1 TD
Aaron Hernandez – 85 yards / 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Entering this week’s game, no other team in the league has thrown the ball more than the Detroit Lions which is great news from a fantasy perspective. Shaun Hill has replaced the oft-injured Matthew Stafford and has quietly played much better than the ballyhooed second-year signal caller. New England is an un-New England-like 31st against the pass, meaning the Patriots should see many balls in the air on Thursday. New England has allowed opposing QBs to pass for more than 300 yards in half of the team’s 10 games. But last week, even though they gave up a ton of yards, they confused Peyton Manning numerous times - Manning even admitted as much. So don’t be too optimistic about Hill figuring out something that the bookworm Manning had trouble with. Hill will get his, but it won’t come without trouble.

Surprisingly, Brandon Pettigrew is tied with Jason Witten for the most receptions by a TE in the league… Brandon freakin’ Pettigrew! Go figure. But someone has to catch all those passes, especially with Calvin Johnson getting most of the attention from opposing defenses. What’s also lost in Detroit’s passing game is the emergence of Nate Burleson. The Lions have been looking for a complement to Johnson for some time, and they may have found it in Burleson. He’s scored in four of the six games he’s played in since his return from injury and he’s had seven receptions in three of the six. Burleson has become a pretty good #3 fantasy WR. These three primary components of Detroit’s passing game are good options this week. I suspect the Lions will get down early and have to throw their way back into the game—much like Indy last week.

Running Game Thoughts: After starting the season with two all-world games, rookie Jahvid Best hit the proverbial Rookie Wall and fell flat on his face. He’s literally done nothing since, and now his toe injury may finally keep him out of a game. That leaves the duties of Detroit’s running game to Maurice Morris, a career back-up whose fantasy relevance is but a few notches above mine. Detroit has the league’s 31st-ranked rush offense and has only five rushing TDs on the season. Forget about getting any production from Detroit’s ground game. If they’re to make any noise offensively, it will be through the passing game. Don’t even waste energy with trying to decide if picking up Morris is a viable option for this week. Keep him on the waiver wire where he belongs.

Projections:
Shaun Hill – 220 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Maurice Morris – 35 yards
Calvin Johnson – 85 yards / 1 TD
Nate Burleson – 60 yards
Brandon Pettigrew – 55 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: New England 34, Detroit 17 ^ Top

Saints @ Cowboys - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is back. After a slow start to the season (by his standards), he has come on strong in recent weeks. He is smart, accurate, and has a well equipped arm. He also has a plethora of weapons to call upon. It is hard for opposing defenses to game plan to stop this offense as there isn’t really a “go to” option for Brees. In any given week, Colston, Shockey (when healthy), Moore, Bush (when healthy), Henderson, Meachem or even some full back could be the weapon of choice. It creates both a pool of “lottery tickets” for desperate fantasy owners and a source of frustration for those that own a Brees skill player since your guy is just as likely to produce as to be ignored from week to week – got to take the good with the bad.

The Cowboys only chance to win their third-straight game is to put serious pressure on Brees or they can expect him to pick apart their inferior secondary that has been consistently lit up this season. Dallas is allowing 235.1 ypg and has given up 22 passing TDs on the season – the Saints could have 21 points on the board before you get to your cranberry sauce.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints backfield has been hit or miss all season due to the injuries suffered by Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Bush should play on Thursday, as he was a gametime decision last Sunday and was a late scratch. Undrafted rookie Chris Ivory played well against Seattle (99 yds and a TD), but has been inconsistent this season. However, last week’s stellar performance should earn him the bulk of carries over veteran journeymen Julius Jones. Ivory could make those desperate for RB help, thankful on Thursday.

The Cowboys can be run on, as they have allowed 117.3 rushing yards per game and 6 rushing TDs on the season. If the Saints decide to use one back in a feature role, that back should prosper.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 Int.
Marques Colston: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Robert Meachem: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Lance Moore: 40 yds receiving
Jimmy Graham: 35 yds receiving
Reggie Bush: 40 yds rushing / 50 yds receiving
Chris Ivory: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Jon Kitna has played quite well since replacing Tony Romo, particularly over the last two weeks where he has cut down on his turnovers. Roy Williams and Miles Austin have resigned themselves to the fact that rookie Dez Bryant is now the go to wide receiver on the Cowboys, and so should their fantasy owners. The Cowboys do pass enough to warrant multiple relevant fantasy targets, but Williams is virtually unstartable at this point while Austin may only be “matchup” fantasy starter going forward.

Despite suffering multiple injuries to their secondary, the Saints have been the second-rated pass defense in the NFL this season, allowing 186.3 ypg and 7 TDs. While they’ve faced a relatively easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks, their ranking cannot be ignored. DC Gregg Williams likes to play an attacking style of defense, which features many blitz packages. The Cowboys depleted o-line will be severely tested on Turkey Day.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys have done more than just pay some lip service to trying to establish a running game since Jason Garrett took over as Head Coach, but that’s not to say that they heavily feature the run. This is still a pass first offense, which limits the production of the running backs. The Cowboys are 30th in the league in rushing attempts on the season ahead of only Arizona and Denver. Furthering the headaches for fantasy owners, those limited carries are split amongst Felix Jones and Marion Barber with a sprinkle of Tashard Choice thrown in.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 225 yds passing 2 TDs, 2 Ints. / 15 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 25 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 45 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 40 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 35 yds rushing, 1 TD

Prediction: Saints 37 Cowboys 27 ^ Top

Bengals @ Jets - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer has had a few big statistical games splattered through the 2010 season, but he’s no longer an elite QB. Palmer tore up his elbow during the 2008 season and made the decision to let it heal naturally rather than have surgery, which was recommended by the team doctors. He has not been the same since. Despite Palmer being surrounded by his best supporting cast in years, he at times looks flawed mechanically and has lost his accuracy. Terrell Owens, meanwhile, has looked better than he has in years. Next offseason he’ll likely have more suitors than the past two off-seasons combined. He still has good downfield speed and can out-muscle most defensive backs for the ball. Unfortunately Batman’s resurgence has hurt Robin as Chad Ochoncino’s numbers have suffered while playing second fiddle in the passing game.

Darrelle Revis is back to full health, which has spelled trouble for Calvin Johnson, the Cleveland WRs, and Andre Johnson during the last three weeks. This week, two “star” WRs that Revis easily handled twice each during the 2009 season come to the Meadowlands. This season Revis has a partner in crime, Antonio Cromartie to help contain Cincinnati’s dynamic duo. The Joker and the Riddler should be able to take care of Batman and Robin, while Jermaine Gresham (Commissioner Gordon?) and Jordan Shipley (Alfred?) likely have decent outings. The Jets have struggled tremendously to stop TEs and slot/3rd WRs thus far in 2010.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson built on his 2008 late season rise from the ashes to look like one of the better backs in the league during the 2009 season. He’s looked a lot closer to his Chicago Bears’ days in 2010 however. Last week notwithstanding, Benson has been mediocre at best behind a declining Cincinnati o-line. He has struggled to find holes and seems a little sluggish getting through the ones that are there. It doesn’t get any easier for him this week.

Arian Foster was able to score twice against the Jets top-5-ranked run defense, but was far from dominating as a runner (84 yards on 22 carries) – he did manage another 59 yards receiving though. Expect the Jets front seven to step back up on the short week against a team humiliated by Buffalo last week.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 245 yds passing, 2 TDs, 2 Ints.
Chad Ochocinco: 40 yds receiving
Terrell Owens: 50 yds receiving
Jordan Shipley: 30 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 55 yds receiving, TD
Cedric Benson: 75 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Mark Sanchez led another dramatic comeback last week and had his best statistical game of his career – tossing for 315 yards and 3 TDs. Santonio Holmes’ role has increased each week and the offseason trade of a 5th-round pick for his services is now looking like one of the biggest steals in NFL history. The Jets may still pay lip service to being a “ground and pound” offense, but it’s clear that they now trust Sanchez to carry the team.

The beleaguered Bengal secondary could be in even more trouble the rest of the season. The 19th-ranked pass defense (223.0 ypg and 15 TDs) took some major hits last week. Free safety Chris Crocker is likely out for the rest of the year, CB Jonathan Joseph is out indefinitely and strong safety Roy Williams left last week’s game with a concussion and will likely miss at least this week’s game.

Running Game Thoughts: LaDainian Tomlinson contributed more as a receiver (71 yards) then a runner (36 yards) last week, and has slowed down some since his torrid start, but he's still a major part of this offense. Shonn Greene had a vital fourth quarter fumble that nearly cost the Jets a victory, but has been looking better and better as the season has progressed. The Jets are a little banged up along the o-line (Damien Woody and Brandon Moore both left last week’s game), so don’t be surprised if the trend towards becoming a pass-oriented offense continues.

The Bengals have been a poor run defense in 2010, as they have allowed 118.3 ypg and 10 TDs on the season, so the Jets should be able to run on them if they choose to; despite the loss of the right side of the o-line.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs / 20 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 100 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dustin Keller: 55 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 55 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
LaDainian Tomlinson: 85 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Jets 31 Bengals 20 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Giants - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Earlier this season in this piece, I pointed out that David Garrard has been Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde depending on whether he was playing at home or on the road throughout his career. However, in 2010 his homes v. road splits have not been as prominent as his career splits. In fact, since he returned from missing the Jags Week 7 contest due to a concussion he’s been one of the top fantasy QBs in the league whether he’s been home (v. Houston and Cleveland or in the road (@ Dallas). Over those three games he’s thrown for 756 yards and 8 TDs. Mike Thomas has been the main target for Jacksonville most weeks in 2010, and is in Garrard’s crosshairs even more so now with Mike Sims-Walker missing time due to an ankle sprain. Former Rutger’s star Tiquan Underwood returns to the Garden State, making his second start of the season in MSW’s place, but is coming off a less that inspiring performance against Cleveland where he looked absolutely lost at times.

Garrard and company will be facing off against the Giants’ third ranked pass defense (192.6 ypg and 14), so it will not be as easy as it’s been in recent weeks for them. Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are playing lights out once again causing opposing QBs to be aware of the pressure (27 sacks on the season) they’ll be under when they face New York. Garrard’s mobility is a plus, but his lack of a true deep threat with Walker out will not help stretch the field.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew failed to live up to his high fantasy draft status early in 2010, but has come on strong. He’s exceeded 100 yards rushing in his last three contests and is a big part of why Jacksonville sits atop the AFC South. The offense flows around MJD – and the Jaguars will need him to have a big day in order to slow down the Giants’ menacing pass rush.

The Giants have stymied opposing RBs most weeks, but allowed LeSean McCoy to go for 111 yards and a TD last week in Philly. They held fellow AFC South back Arian Foster to 25 yards rushing and will need to do the same to Jones-Drew if they wish to keep their recent skid from turning into another second half collapse.

Projections:
David Garrard: 225 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 30 yards rushing
Tiquan Underwood: 35 yds receiving
Mike Thomas: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 35 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: The Giants WRs are dropping like flies. Eli will need to show Peyton-like ability to turn no name WRs into studs if the Giants hope to right their ship. Hakeem Nicks now joins Steve Smith on the sidelines thrusting the recently re-signed Derek Hagan into the starting line-up. Hagan actually performed well last Sunday Night for a player that was just signed the week of the game, and even grabbed a TD. The Giants will ask for more this week from Hagan while also throwing over-matched rookie Duke Calhoun and disappointing second year TE Travis Beckum into the mix at wide-out.

Luckily for Eli, he’ll be facing an incredibly soft pass defense this week, so he just may be able to pull it off with the street free agents the Giants throw him out there with on Sunday. The Jags are allowing 264.6 passing ypg and have given up 20 passing TDs on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw had his worst game of the season last week and had a key fumble that played a large role in the Giants’ defeat. He’ll look to bounce back this week in a pivotal game for his team’s season that appears to be slipping away, but he’ll have to do so as a back-up. Head Coach Tom Coughlin has named Brandon Jacobs as the starter this week, but said Bradshaw will still see many carries. Expect a big game from the hard working, hard running Bradshaw.

The Jaguar defense is an equal opportunity offender. Whether opponents chose the air or the ground to attack them they are met with little resistance. The team is allowing 112.2 ypg and 12 TDs on the ground so far this season.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 260 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 10 yds rushing
Derek Hagan: 40 yds receiving
Mario Manningham: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 50 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Giants 24 Jaguars 21 ^ Top

Steelers @ Bills - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Rothlisberger’s production has been up and down since his return from suspension. However, he is coming off his best game of the season versus Oakland last week. In that game Ben threw for three touchdowns and ran for another. Since his return, the Steelers have gone back to being a team that attacks through the air, instead of the ground based offense they became during his absence. Second year WR has adapted very well from his role as the 3rd WR last season to the starting gig this season and is arguably the No. 1 option in the pass offense ahead of long time Steeler great Hines Ward. It’s been a down season for TE Heath Miller who has been banged up with injuries and needed to stay in to block while healthy due to the poor offensive line play in Pittsburgh.

The Bills pass defense is ranked 9th in the NFL, but that stat is somewhat deceiving. While they are only allowing 208.9 passing yards per game, they have allowed 20 TD passes in 10 games, so they’ve hardly limited fantasy QBs. Also due to a very poor run defense, teams have not attempted as many passes against the Bills as they would normally. Incredibly the unit also has only 4 interceptions on the season, after forcing 28 last year.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall owners are probably not so pleased that Roethlisberger’s suspension wasn’t longer than four games. Mendenhall carried the team earlier in the season when they trotted out below average options at QB, but has been an afterthought since. He’s still been an effective runner, he just hasn’t been asked to handle as big a load and thus his numbers have been down. Mewelde Moore continues to be one of the better 3rd down backs in the league which also hurt’s Mendenhall’s production since it limits the time he sees the field.

The Bills are ranked dead last in run defense this season, so perhaps the Steelers will allow Mendenhall some more opportunities this week to keep the suddenly explosive Bills’ offense off the field. The Bills have allowed 163.5 ypg and 10 TDs on the ground in 2010. The team has improved a bit in run defense since earlier in the year, but is still not a team capable of shutting down a running attack.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 245 yards, 2 TDs
Mike Wallace: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hines Ward: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 25 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 45 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Rashard Mendenhall: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably the biggest surprise of the fantasy season. On a points per game basis he sits behind only Michael Vick and Philip Rivers in the QB rankings, averaging 25.5 fantasy points per game. As an NFL QB, he’s a fiery leader that is willing to do whatever it takes to win – and has inspired the team to two consecutive wins after starting the season 0-8. Last week the Bills stormed back from a 31-14 halftime deficit to pull out a 49-31 victory in Cincinnati. Under Fitzpatrick, third year WR Steve Johnson has developed into a fantasy stud receiver - seemingly catching at least one TD pass each week, and recently adding outstanding yardage totals each week as well. Perhaps the Bills will not need Andrew Luck next season after all.

If the Steelers have a weak link it’s their pass defense where they rank 23rd in the NFL giving up 239.1 ypg and 11 TDs on the season. In fairness the team is so difficult to run on, teams have very little choice but to attack them through the air. However, the Steelers have not been able to shut down their opposition’s passing attack. The Bills will attack them through the air like they have nothing to lose (since they really don’t) – this one may end up closer than the two teams records would indicate that it should.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills were unable to establish a running game for much of the season, but recently the team has found success on the ground. During that span, the entire burden of carrying the running game has fallen on veteran Fred Jackson. Jackson has done a fantastic job of sneaking through the Bills inferior o-line and has explosive abilities in open space.

Unfortunately for his owners, Jackson’s resurgence likely gets derailed for at least this week, as the Steelers are virtually impossible to run on. They allow and incredibly low 63.0 ypg and have only allowed 4 rushing TDs on the season. Their defensive front seven reads like an All-Pro lineup and safety Troy Polamalu flies all over the field in support of the run.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 Int. / 10 yds rushing
Lee Evans: 50 yds receiving
Steve Johnson: 115 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Shawn Nelson: 25 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 45 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving, 1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 31 Bills 27 ^ Top

Vikings @ Redskins - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: New Vikings Head Coach Leslie Frazier has announced that he will stick with Brett Favre at QB, despite Favre’s and the team’s disappointing season. Farve is a shell of his former self and cannot be counted on for fantasy purposes, especially in leagues that penalize for interceptions. Sidney Rice looked pretty good last week for a player coming off a serious injury and played a lot more than expected due to injuries to other wide receivers. Rice’s presence should help re-open up the underneath routes for Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe as Randy Moss did during his otherwise disappointing time in Minnesota.

Washington is statistically one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL allowing 280.1 ypg and 18 passing TDs on the season, so perhaps the old man has one last run in him. The Skins have a decent pass rush, and will need to put some pressure on No. 4 in the hope that he continues to kill his team with turnovers, since they’ll have a hard time stopping the pass otherwise.

Running Game Thoughts: A defensive minded coach like Frazier should look to use Adrian Peterson more than he has been used this season. The Vikings would be wise to try and pull back the reigns on Farve by running Peterson up the gut early and often in this game, which can in turn set up some big pass plays later. Peterson is a game changing back and will be the key to Minnesota pulling out a tough road win for their new coach.

The Redskins haven’t been very effective against the run in recent weeks slowly moving down the run defense rankings (131.0 ypg on the season), but they have kept opposing runners from scoring (only 6 rushing TDs against them). The Washington linebackers are led by Rocky McIntosh and crafty veteran London Fletcher, but its hard-hitting safety LaRon Landry that really keeps the box small and lays the wood on opposing running backs.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 275 yds passing 2 TDs, 2 Ints.
Sidney Rice: 70 yds receiving
Percy Harvin: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Visanthe Shiancoe: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 110 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb has put up pretty good yardage totals on the season, but hasn’t found the end-zone much. McNabb has a couple of solid veteran options in Santana Moss and Chris Cooley (although neither are big time playmakers any longer), and an over-achieving deep threat in Anthony Armstrong, but the team will need to surround him with better talent should they decide to pick up the option that makes his recently signed extension a legit contract. His skills have eroded some, but McNabb is still a better than average QB and a good leader, he’s just overmatched due to his lack of weapons most weeks.

McNabb will not be particularly tested by his opposition this week (Vikings allow 218.0 ypg and 17 TDs through the air), unless the coaching change brings inspired play from a slumping Viking defense. The Vikings receive strong play from CB Antoine Winfield, but are otherwise lacking talent in the secondary. Surprisingly the Vikings haven’t generated much of a pass rush as Jared Allen has had a down season in that regard.

Running Game Thoughts: The Shanahan RB carousel took another turn when Ryan Torain battling a hamstring injury was a surprise last minute “no go” two weeks ago on Monday Night, much to the dismay of those fantasy owners that had him in their line-up. Clinton Portis returned last week and immediately re-injured his groin leaving only rookie Keiland Williams to handle the load. Of course the Skins did add former Cleveland Brown James Davis off heir practice squad this week, so knowing Shanahan, he’ll get the significant carries this week leaving Williams owners in a lurch.

The Williams Wall may fall soon, but as of now it helps prop up the Vikings 7th ranked run defense (99.1 ypg and 6 TDs). The Vikings have been a tough opponent for opposing rushers for a few years running now – further making Williams a risky start.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 305 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 15 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Anthony Armstrong: 75 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 65 yds receiving
Keiland Williams: 70 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving

Prediction: Redskins 17 Vikings 14 ^ Top

Panthers @ Browns - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: The QB situation in Carolina this year is one of the worst the league has seen in some time. Matt Moore started the year and was underwhelming before getting injured, forcing rookie Jimmy Clausen into action perhaps earlier than the organization would’ve liked. Brian St. Pierre was playing ‘This Little Piggy’ with his kid when he was summoned into action last week, but he actually played well against Baltimore. St. Pierre may not play this week because of injury, making Jimmy Clausen the man once again.

The QB situation has literally rendered Steve Smith useless. Smith hasn’t scored since week two and has had only one 100-plus yards receiving in his last 22 games. Not to mention the organization has yet to replace Muhsin Muhammad as a viable #2 receiving option. You put it all together and what you have is a jumbled heap of useless fantasy players. Avoid Carolina like the plague the rest of the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Mike Goodson replaced an injured Jonathan Stewart that last two weeks and promptly did what neither Stewart nor Deangelo Williams had done all season: run for 100 yards or more in two consecutive games. Stewart appears recovered from the concussion that kept him out of action, but with Goodson’s productive play lately, how will his return affect the continuity in the backfield? Keep in mind, too, that no team has surrendered fewer rushing TDs that Cleveland’s three. This could prove to be a usual tough day offensively for Carolina in both areas.

Projections:
Jimmy Clausen – 165 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
Jonathan Stewart – 45 yards
Mike Goodson – 40 yards rushing / 30 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Steve Smith – 60 yards
David Gettis – 45 yards
Jeff King – 15 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Because of an injured ankle, Colt McCoy will sit out this week, meaning Jake Delhomme returns just in time to play his former team. Delhomme has struggled, having thrown nine interceptions in the last four games in which he’s played. Delhomme could once again have a difficult day, as the Panthers quietly have one of the top pass defenses in the league. They’re ranked 7th and have forced a turnover in all but two games this season.

Chansi Stuckey is considered the team’s leading receiver, but he hasn’t scored a TD since week 10 last year; actually, it’s Mohamed Massaquoi who’s probably the most reliable outside option. Dual threat Josh Cribbs is out this week with a toe injury. TE Ben Watson left last week’s game early with an ankle injury, but all signs point to him giving it a shot against Carolina. Suffice it to say, no one for the Browns is worthy of a start this week.

Running Game Thoughts: What more can be said about Peyton Hillis? He’s been one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football this season. It’s almost unthinkable that someone who looks like a fullback leads his team in both rushing and receiving. They use him all over the field, and he’s responded recently by scoring in four straight games. Really, this offensive attack is built around him and his skill set, and with Carolina and its 24th-ranked run defense coming to town, Hillis’ surprise season should continue without hesitation.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme – 210 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT
Peyton Hillis – 130 yards rushing/ 45 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Mohamed Massaquoi – 50 yards / 1 TD
Chansi Stuckey – 40 yards
Ben Watson – 55 yards

Prediction: Cleveland 20, Carolina 10 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Ravens - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: The steady maturation of Josh Freeman continues. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in three straight games and has only been intercepted two times in the last six—and both of those came in one game. So his production, coupled with a mistake-free brand of football, continues to make him and those around him good fantasy options on certain weeks. Mike Williams has scored in three of his last four and is the primary target of Freeman. He’s a good low #2/high #3 WR going into this week. Kellen Winslow is battling an injured knee and his availability is questionable for this week. Baltimore’s 10th-ranked pass defense seems a bit lofty for the way they’ve played this season. They’ve given up more than 300 yards through the air in two of the last four, including almost 400 yards against the “vaunted” Buffalo passing attack. The Ravens are, however, a ballhawking unit, especially since Ed Reed’s return.

Running Game Thoughts: LaGarrette Blount is another one of those surprise fantasy pick-ups this year. His physical style of running gives Tampa Bay a solid foundation on offense, and Cadillac Williams has actually carved out a nice niche on the team. He’s second on the team with 30 receptions and even gets an occasional goal line carry. It may be slim pickings against the 9th-ranked Ravens defense, especially after Carolina’s Mike Goodson carved them up for about 120 yards on the ground last week. Baltimore will probably enter this game with a keen focus on fixing what ailed their rush defense. Cadillac got the bulk of his receptions early in the season, having only four receptions in the last three games. But his role in the passing game will make him a viable option each week; I’d just hesitate, though, on putting him in the line-up this week.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 220 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
LeGarrette Blount – 60 yards / 1 TD
Cadillac Williams – 35 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Mike Williams – 85 yards / 1 TD
Arrelious Benn – 35 yards
Kellen Winslow - 30 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco is starting to pick up his level of play recently. He has 11 TD passes with only one INT in the last five games. Flacco spreads the ball around to his stable of receiving options, as four players have at least 35 receptions on the year. Tampa Bay, though, is a sneaky-good pass defense. Two week in a row they have kept their opponents under 200 yards passing. It should be noted that those two opponents were Carolina and San Francisco, but keeping a team under 200 yards is keeping a team under 200 yards.

Anquan Boldin leads the team in receptions with 48, but why does it seem like he’s hit a wall? In two of the last three games he has three of fewer receptions. Perhaps the most frustrating part of all is how long they often go without even throwing him the football, especially in the first half of games. He remains too valuable to bench, though. Meanwhile, Derrick Mason produces on a level that pretty much matches his fantasy draft status. He’s a borderline starter this week. Knock on wood, but Todd Heap has remained healthy so far in 2010. He hasn’t exactly lit up the opposition, but he’s still capable of putting together a good statistical game.

Running Game Thoughts: As good and productive as Ray Rice has been, it’s scary to think how much better he could be if he’d get a few more carries close to the goal line. As it is now, Willis MaGahee gets the bulk of those money carries, thus keeping Rice out of a potential top-3 fantasy RB status. But Rice as he is currently constituted remains a true threat. His role in the passing game makes him a valuable commodity despite the few scoring opportunities he misses week to week. Rice has 16 receptions in the last three games and is a solid outlet for Flacco. Tampa Bay’s 29th-ranked run defense could get sliced pretty good by Rice. Expect big things from the third year RB.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 235 yards / 2 TDs
Ray Rice – 95 yards rushing / 40 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Willis McGahee – 25 yards rushing / 1 rushing TD
Anquan Boldin – 75 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Mason – 50 yards / 1 TD
Todd Heap – 45 yards

Prediction: Baltimore 31, Tampa Bay 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Bears - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: After his once-in-a-career performance against Washington, Michael Vick’s play came back to earth last week. He didn’t completely lay an egg—his play was actually not too bad, but when comparing it to a couple weeks ago…. But even beyond his otherworldly play this season, the stat that sticks out more than anything is Vick has yet to throw an interception. He utilizes his outside threats DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as good as any QB in the league; both of these WRs are solid starts week in and week out, and much of that credit goes to Vick. Start all three of these players with extreme confidence. Chicago’s defense, though, has surrendered the fewest TD passes in the league. That could prove a tough obstacle for Philly to climb. But really, the Eagles are playing too well right now to give serious consideration to benching any of their main components on offense.

Running Game Thoughts: When FB Leonard Weaver was injured for the season during the season’s first game, the player who was earmarked to benefit the most was LeSean McCoy. And he hasn’t disappointed. Not only does he lead the team in rushing, but his overall skill set has allowed him to lead the team in receiving as well. And despite the rib injury he sustained earlier in the season, he’s been durable. McCoy is going to need his durability, his versatility and whatever else he can muster to solve Chicago’s 2nd-ranked rush defense. Because of the flexibility he gives the Philly offense, McCoy’s a good #2 RB this week.

Projections:
Michael Vick – 230 yards / 2 TDs
LeSean McCoy – 65 yards rushing / 35 yards rec
Jeremy Maclin – 90 yards / 1 TD
DeSean Jackson – 75 yards / 1 TD
Brent Celek – 20 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s maddening having to rely on Jay Cutler week after week; his inconsistency can drive a guy to drink. After throwing for five TDs in a two-game stretch, he followed that up with a bomb of a game last week, throwing for 156 yards, no TDs and one INT. And what does Cutler get as a consolation prize? A Philly pass defense that leads the league in interceptions. Cutler will surely see a lot of blitzes in an effort to rattle him. Philly’s 26 sacks put them in the top third of the league, but they’ve been known also to pressure the QB. It is that kind of defensive approach that gives both Cutler and his offensive line trouble.

Getting more consistent production from his receivers would do Cutler some good as well. Johnny Knox, Devin Hester and Earl Bennett don’t necessarily strike fear in defenses you know. Greg Olsen, however, could be one of the better TEs in the league if only they’d feature him more. He’s not thrown to much, relative to other TEs of his caliber. But then again, Mike Martz’s offense has never been known to feature TEs. For those daring owners in deep leagues, Cutler’s a option, and so too is Olsen. The other WRs are a bit too hit or miss to recommend with any certainty.

Running Game Thoughts: The last two weeks were the first time Matt Forte has had 20-plus carries in two consecutive games since late last season. We all know that Martz would rather throw the rock every play, so the fact that Forte is getting consistent rushing opportunities is a good thing for his owners. But maybe what Martz also realizes is the more carries Forte gets, the fewer pass attempts Cutler has, and thus the less likely he is to turn the ball over. Philly has a top-10 rush defense, so it might be tough for Forte to find running room. I think the best way for Forte to be productive this week is with his receiving ability. He does have the second-most receptions on the team; that role should continue this week with Forte putting up good all-around numbers.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 190 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Matt Forte – 60 yards rushing / 40 yards rec / 1 TD rec
Johnny Knox – 60 yards
Devin Hester – 30 yards
Greg Olsen – 50 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Philadelphia 20, Chicago 17 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Seahawks - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Dwayne Bowe has played as well as any WR in football over the last six games in which he has scored nine times. To sweeten things up a little The Seahawks may be without their best cover CB Marcus Trufant. That leaves Kelly Jennings to try and slow the parade. I don’t like his chances. Bowe should be in line for another big game. The Chiefs will prefer to run but can capitalize on the Seahawk’s cheating up to stop Charles and Thomas. It looks like TE tony Moeaki is set to return after missing last week with a concussion. He has made enough plays for the Seahawks to have to respect the danger he poses over the middle. He could make some plays against a Seattle LB core that isn’t great in coverage. Mainly though he will occupy a safety and free Bowe up from getting extra attention.

Running Game Thoughts: As I warned last week, the Chiefs Thomas Jones will still see a bulk of the carries when the Chiefs are leading in games. He and Jamaal Charles could enjoy big days as The Chiefs will be determined to run the ball and take Seattle’s crowd out of the game. Of the two I think Jones could again see the bulk of the load. The Seattle defensive line is banged up, and Jones will be used between the tackles until the Seahawks prove they can stop them. I don’t think they will.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 240 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 95 yds/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 50 yds
Tony Moeaki: 45 yds/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 85 yds/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 50yds/40 rec

Passing Game Thoughts: The Seahawks play well at home but a great crowd can compensate for only so many injuries. With go to WR Mike Williams out with a foot injury, the Seahawks have a lot to overcome. Ben Obomanu is expected to start for Williams. He is a career back up and special teamer but he has had some brief flashes before. He may find open space hard to come by with CB Brandon Flowers covering. Flowers has great anticipation with a real knack for breaking up passes. Don’t expect Obomanu to pick up all of Williams’ load. RB Justin Forsett could benefit as well. As the main receiving option out of the backfield, he could see a real upswing in targets and plays designed to utilize his open filed ability. Speculation that rookie Golden Tate could start seeing more snaps is a week or two early. He missed a few games with a ankle injury and it remains unclear if he will be ready to get back in. He may be limited if he suits up, so wait and see if he can make an impact before rostering him. A matchup that will work well is Brandon Stokley in the slot. He caught all six balls thrown to him last week and could see a even more this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawk need to try and get Marshawn Lynch going. He hasn’t cracked 50 yards in their last four games. Not all of that is on Lynch either. He’s a tough inside runner that needs volume carries and he has not had many carries. They have been getting behind early in games and been forced to pass. With their main receiving weapon out it will be up to Lynch and Forsett to pick up some slack. The Chiefs will make running difficult. They are 11th in rush defense led by two tough inside LBS Derrick Johnson and Jovan Belcher. The Seahawks will find running up the middle difficult with those two patrolling the middle. I’m not sure they will be committed and patient enough with Lynch’s 3-4 yard carries. Forsett may have better success with his ability to cut back against the flow of the LBs when they over pursue or beat them to the outside when they don’t.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 225 yds/2TDs/1 INT
Ben Obomanu: 75 yds/1 TD
Deon Butler: 55 yds
Brandon Stokley: 60 yds/1 TD
Justin Forsett: 40 yds/35 rec
Marshawn Lynch: 45 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Seahawks 20 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Raiders - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Both Chad Henne and Tyler Thigpen are sharing snaps in case Henne is ready to play. I’m not sure how much it will matter. The Dolphins offense has struggled and fans have been calling for a change at offensive coordinator. They were shutout against the Bears last week. Thigpen may not be better than Henne but has the skills to be more effective with his scrambling ability. The Raiders are top five in sacks this year so having a immobile QB will not help the Dolphins who haven’t been protecting their QB well of last. To make matters worse, it looks like they will be without WR Brandon Marshall, leaving Brian Hartline and Devon Bess as the starters. Meanwhile, the Raiders probably get CB Nnamdi Asomugha back this week. In short, the Dolphins are a long shot to have much success through the air in this one.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins will need to reestablish their ability to run the ball. It’s the best way to attack the Raiders and their passing prospects don’t bode well. The combo of Ronnie and Ricky hasn’t lived up to previous years. They haven’t used much of the Wildcat formation as expected. Another criticism of the coordinator. The Raiders are not the Bears equal in run defense so maybe they can have more success but it’s tough to imagine a scenario where the Dolphins have a great deal of success and muster many points.

Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 185 yds
Davone Bess: 50 yds
Brian Hartline: 50 yds
Anthony Fasano: 30 yds
Ronnie Brown: 55 yds/1 TD
Ricky Williams: 45 yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Raiders have some of the same problems as the Dolphins. They were destroyed by the Steelers last week. QB Jason Campbell was ineffective as was his mid-game replacement Bruce Gradkowski. Campbell is expected to remain the starter but we’ve seen how short his leash is. He’s spent an entire career looking over his shoulder. He may welcome back the services of Darrius Heyward-Bey this week, and who ever thought someone would say those words. Their best WR Louis Murphy returned last week, and should now have his sea legs under him. They will need Murphy to improve because they will need to have some success through the air to keep the Dolphins off the line of scrimmage. What has hurt more than the beat up WRs is TE Zach Miller's foot. He has been playing and should be on the field but his production has slipped since the injury in week eight. Miller is the glue that keeps drives alive and the Raiders are one dimensional when he is not involved.

Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders rush attack suffered a similar familiar setback last week... the Steelers defense. Run DMC was stuck in a mud bog. The Dolphins may not be the steel curtain but they have a defense designed to stuff the run, and they aren’t bad, ranking 6th, allowing 113 yards per game. They rely on a physical front seven, so the Raiders will need to find some creative ways to get McFadden on the edge where he can be explosive. Michael Bush is still getting around ten carries a week and may see a little more this week as the Raiders want to set a more physical tone after being bullied themselves by Pittsburgh. Even with a few more carries, I don’t think Bush warrants any fantasy value, as he will be ramming directly into the teeth of the physical Dolphin defense.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 180 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Louis Murphy: 65 yds
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 40 yds
Zach Miller: 55 yds/1 TD
Darren McFadden: 75 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Raiders 17 Dolphins 9 ^ Top

Rams @ Broncos - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Of all the ways to end a long streak of 169 passes without a interception, Sam Bradford ended his on a shovel pass. The streak was impressive for a rookie QB and shows the kind of decision making and accuracy that lead most believe he is destined for stardom. For now, they will continue to throw a bunch of short safe passes and to matriculate the ball down the field, as a wise old KC coach once articulated. WR Danny Amendola has improved his yardage totals the last few weeks, a good sign that he and Bradford are clicking. Coupled with his recent scoring uptick he is a suitable fantasy WR2. On the other side Laurent Robinson and Brandon Gibson are improving their chemistry with Bradford as well. Some of their production in recent weeks may be due to garbage time, but it still counts. The problem with them is that they continue to limit each other’s production. Neither of them can be relied on as a fantasy breakout candidates for now. The picture could be muddied further with the possible return of Denario Alexander this week or next. Bradford will increase in value as the receivers will remain a rotation not to be trusted beyond Amendola. The Rams should have a decent day throwing against a Bronco defense that looked like a JV squad against Phillip Rivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson could finally have a matchup to get back on track here. The Broncos are below average stopping the run, allowing 150 yards per game. Jackson is has struggled in recent weeks with games of 59, 81, and 54 yards rushing and has just one score in his last four games. His job this week will be to beat Bronco LB and leading tackler D.J. Williams. If he can do that he will have some room to roll. As long as the Rams defense keeps them in the game, Jackson should have a productive week

Projections:
Sam Bradford: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 Int
Danny Amendola: 65 yds/1 TD
Brandon Gibson: 65 yds/1 TD
Laurent Robinson: 60 yds
Steven Jackson: 85 yds/25 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton has been a yardage monster all year. When he has the occasionally bad game, as he did versus San Diego, is when they fail in the redzone. It hasn’t helped that their big rookie WR Demeryius Thomas continues to get injured every other week. They want to utilize his size in close but he will be out this week with a bum ankle. This could be a big week for Denver’s pass attack. The Rams aren’t the punching bag they have been in years past but they rely on blitzing and their two get to the QB. Denver did a pretty good job neutralizing the Charger rush at times last week, but couldn’t find open WRs. The Rams don’t have the same level of talent in the secondary to cover all the Broncos. OJ Atogwe can make plays as a center fielder but I think Orton does a decent job of looking off safeties. Orton will get Atogwe moving on crossing routes and then look to over the top with Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd has been a top five WR all year and there’s no reason to think the Rams will slow him down.

Running Game Thoughts: The return of Knowshon Moreno really helps the Denver offense. He is running well averaging 4.5 yards per carry since his return. He was effective against a stiff Charger defense until Denver fell so far behind they had to go shotgun spread. I think the shoe may be on the other foot this week. Denver should enjoy the lead and be able to feed Moreno with a more balanced approach. They could probably do a better job of keeping him involved in the pass attack. He has shown his ability as a receiver out of the backfield and I think Denver will be well served to get back to that.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 300 yds/2 TD/1 Int
Brandon Lloyd: 90 yds/1 TD
Jabar Gaffney: 65 yds/ 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 70 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 70 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Broncos 31 Rams 24 ^ Top

49ers @ Cardinals - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The 49ers struggled to pass the ball against the Bucs defense. Tampa kept their safeties at home to prevent Troy Smith form hitting big plays while breaking from the pocket. Losing to Tampa 21-0 was a real back breaker that may have put to rest hopes of a comeback this year. The Bucs exposed that Troy Smith and the Niner’s aren’t disciplined enough to sustain long drives. Smith isn’t an accuracy and timing type of QB, he’s a big play guy. The question is, whether Arizona will learn from the film and show some discipline of their own? They haven’t yet this year. The Cardinals have some talent on defense but do not show any cohesion. As a result, I think Smith can get back on track finding Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree on occasion for big plays while buying time with his feet. Davis is a bit of a question mark as he left last week early with an ankle injury but signs point to it not being serious. Keep an eye out for his status as Monday approaches. If you own him, you may need to pick up Delaney Walker. They play Monday night so there is risk to assuming Davis will play. Walker has the ability to be a productive fill-in if Davis is out.

Running Game Thoughts: The alarming part of their shutout at the hands of the Bucs was the failure of Gore to be productive despite Tampa keeping their safeties in coverage. It was a total failure by the 49ers offensive line. Gore has been a top producing back all year so it has to be chalked up as an anomaly unless it happens again. West coast teams often lay eggs when playing on the east coast. The Cardinals are 26th in rushing defense, so on paper Gore should have a big day. Another failure, against a poor rush defense, in the western time zone, may point to a 49er team that has stopped fighting for the season and could spell doom for embattled head coach Mike Singletary

Projections:
Troy Smith: 190 yds/1 TD/1 Int
Michael Crabtree: 65 yds/1 TD
Vernon Davis: 65 yds
Josh Morgan: 30 yds
Frank Gore: 85 yds/35 rec/2 TDs

Passing Game Thoughts: Consecutive losses to west coast teams may have already doomed hopes to stay in the race but this game will be the nail in the coffin for the loser. The Cards have been better throwing the ball since Anderson returned to starting lineup but not good enough to win games. Look for them to attack a questionable 49er secondary early with two great outside weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston. Breaston has missed time but quietly sits as the eighth best WR league wide with 78 yards per game. Both have the talent to exploit the Niners if Anderson can continue his recent stretch of throwing more TDs than INTs. The missing piece from last year is Tim Hightower. Warner did a great job of checking down to him, making Hightower a PPR beast last season. He has not caught nearly as many balls this year as Anderson and Cardinals don't sustain drives by utilizing check downs.

Running Game Thoughts: The announcement that Beanie Wells was set for a dominant return apparently fell on deaf ears. He fell on the short end of split with Hightower (12 carries - 8 carries). With the injury concern, coaches have to be weary at this point to give him twenty plus touches a game and he hasn’t been a great deal more effective either so look for the RBBC to continue moving forward. This week, they will both have to also share with LaRod Stephens-Howling who returns from injury. He is a dynamic open field runner and return man that will see 5-7 carries and some packages designed to utilize his explosiveness. As a whole, the Cards may struggle to consistently run the ball enough to make any of the RBs fantasy options. Between the three, Hightower’s the safest bet.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 230 yds/2 TD/1 Int
Larry Fitzgerald: 85 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 75 yds/ 1 TD
Tim Hightower: 45 yds/ 25 rec/
Chris Wells: 40 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Cardinals 24, 49ers 21 ^ Top

Packers @ Falcons - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers struggled at home against the Jets in Week 8 but has been on an absolute tear in his two games since. Facing the Cowboys and Vikings, Rodgers threw a combined seven touchdowns with no interceptions, adding 590 yards passing and 62 yards rushing—his best two fantasy performances of the season. Simply put, our elite quarterback is back. Helping him get back to that elite form has been wide receiver Greg Jennings, who has caught six or more passes in five straight games now, with four touchdown receptions in his past two games. Jennings’ 7-catch, 152-yard, three-touchdown performance last week in Minnesota was the best game of his professional career, and he is heating up just when fantasy owners need him most.

This red-hot duo will face a Falcons secondary that many would say has overachieved in stopping opposing quarterbacks this season. The numbers are quite skewed when it comes to fantasy points allowed because, while the Falcons have held four of their first five opponents to one or no touchdowns, they have since allowed two or more passing touchdowns in the last five games. With Dunta Robinson and a bunch of no-names around him, the Atlanta secondary will have a tough time facing one of the league’s most prolific passing attacks. If they don’t continue to force a high number of turnovers, it could be a very long day.

Running Game Thoughts: Since Ryan Grant’s injury, the Packers running game has been more bark than bite. Green Bay implements a pass-first offense with a running game used simply as a way to keep opposing defenses honest. Only once this season has running back Brandon Jackson rushed for more than 70 yards, but he has done a great job catching passes.

Jackson will have an ever tougher time than normal when he faces a Falcons defense ranked fourth in shutting down running backs. While the league as a whole hasn’t been filled with particularly great rushing attacks this season, Atlanta’s rush defense has still done an excellent job shutting down some of the better backs. The Falcons have held players like Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, and Peyton Hillis each to less that 60 yards rushing and no rushing touchdowns. Atlanta has been so good, in fact, that they have only allowed a league-best two rushing touchdowns all year—both of which came in the first two weeks of the season. The Packers running game is futile to begin with, and this matchup just screams fantasy mediocrity for Brandon Jackson—even more so for John Kuhn.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 275 yards passing / 3 touchdowns / 1 INT / 10 yards rushing
Brandon Jackson – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Greg Jennings –105 yards receiving / 1 TD
James Jones – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jordy Nelson – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Donald Driver – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The maturity of third-year quarterback Matt Ryan has begun to show in recent weeks, as he has now gone three straight games without throwing an interception. Ryan’s accuracy has been comparable this season to some of the very best quarterbacks in the league, and it has really brought about the emergence of Roddy White, who is now the leading fantasy receiver in standard scoring leagues. White has made four or more catches in every game this season, including three games with double-digit catches and five games with over 100 yards. With the surprisingly solid play of Michael Jenkins (since his return in Week 6 from injury), the Falcons have begun to form one of the league’s most formidable passing attacks.

This week may be the Falcons’ toughest matchup since Week 1 against the Steelers, but it’s hard to believe that they won’t find a way to still make an impact. Charles Woodson will be breathing down Roddy White’s neck, but with White averaging nearly 12 targets per game, he remains a must-start in practically every league—he’s that good. Other players in this passing game are a little more questionable, however, as Jenkins hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, despite being a solid-yardage performer, and tight end Tony Gonzalez has caught only three touchdowns on the year.

Running Game Thoughts: What a rollercoaster it has been for Michael Turner and his fantasy owners over the past month and a half. After two straight games of over 100 yards rushing, and with two touchdowns in each of those games, Turner threw up an absolute stinker against the Ravens in Week 10. Thankfully he bounced back with a 131-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Rams in Week 11, but questions about his consistency are becoming a major concern.

Turner will face a Packers defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Green Bay generally does an excellent job of putting points on the board themselves, which often leads to teams not running the ball against them very much. They have allowed only three rushing touchdowns on the season and only one over their past eight games. There is reason to be concerned that the Falcons may struggle to keep up with the Packers offense this week and that Turner is not much of a pass-catcher once the Falcons must turn primarily to a passing attack. That said, Turner continues to get about 20 carries per week, and he has been productive enough against other good defenses to warrant a fantasy start against just about anyone.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 235 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT / 5 yards rushing
Michael Turner – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD
Jason Snelling – 20 yards rushing / 0 TD / 20 yards receiving
Roddy White – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD
Tony Gonzalez – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 20 ^ Top

Titans @ Texans - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback Rusty Smith will get his first NFL start this week as the Titans head to Houston to face their division rivals. A sixth-round pick out of Florida Atlantic, Smith was the first player ever drafted from his school, and he got his first taste of NFL action last week in relief of Vince Young. Young, who was injured on a play during last Sunday’s loss to the Redskins, was placed on injured reserve this week following a post-game tirade that most expect to be his last action as a member of the Titans. Smith looked overmatched in his debut, completing just three of his nine pass attempts with an interception.

However, Smith will have his chance to shine this week as he, Randy Moss, Nate Washington, and the rest of the Tennessee passing game match their talents against a useless Houston secondary. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, having given up multiple touchdown passes in every game but one this season. The Texans have already allowed 25 passing touchdowns this season and have to be considered the easiest matchup Smith could have hoped for in his first NFL start.

Running Game Thoughts: With a rookie starting at quarterback, the Titans will lean heavily on their All-Pro running back and 2009’s leading rusher, Chris Johnson. While Johnson’s fantasy value has taken a step back from his ridiculous 2009 season, he remains one of the league’s elite fantasy players and currently ranks fourth among fantasy running backs in standard scoring leagues. He has rushed for nine touchdowns—good for second-best in the league—and should surpass the 1000-yard rushing mark this week.

Johnson will be going up against a Texans defense that he humiliated in 2009. In his two games against them, Johnson has compiled a ridiculous 435 yards total yards with two touchdowns. The Texans haven’t been great at stopping the run this season, either. They have already allowed nine touchdowns to opposing running backs, and that number is fairly likely to increase this week as they face their toughest task of the season. Look for Johnson to do some serious damage against a struggling Houston defense.

Projections:
Rusty Smith – 170 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Chris Johnson – 140 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Randy Moss – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Nate Washington – 65 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Having already compiled six games this season in which he threw one or no touchdown passes, Matt Schaub has to be considered a pretty big disappointment for owners who were expecting more of what he gave them in 2009. Schaub led the entire league in passing yardage just a season ago, but the Texans’ new-found commitment to the run, combined with injuries to Schaub and his receivers, has contributed to his slump in fantasy production. Andre Johnson seems to be as healthy as he has been in quite awhile now as this week he has begun to practice fully, which bodes well for both himself and Schaub and could draw coverage away from Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter, and even Joel Dreessen.

The Houston passing game will face a Titans secondary that has allowed three straight 300-yard passing games, including matchups against Donovan McNabb and the Dolphins’ trio of Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, and Tyler Thigpen. They face an even tougher matchup with Schaub, who threw for a combined 662 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions in his two games against Tennessee in 2009. Worse yet for the Titans, Andre Johnson has absolutely owned Cortland Finnegan as of late, compiling 434 yards on 25 receptions for four touchdowns over their last three contests.

Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps the biggest breakout star of the 2010 season, Arian Foster just keeps on rolling. Foster leads the NFL in touchdowns with 13 already this season—and he still has six games left. At the pace he is currently on, Foster will break the 20-touchdown plateau in his first season as a starting running back—an amazing feat for a player who wasn’t expected to be the team’s starting running back at the start of training camp.
He’s coming off a huge game in which he compiled over 140 total yards and two touchdowns against a New York Jets defense that ranked best in the league in points allowed to opposing running backs. Though the Titans have done a fairly good job of stopping the run this season, over the past four weeks they have allowed nearly 250 yards receiving to opposing running backs—and Arian Foster ranks third in the league in that category. This could be another big receiving game for the league’s top fantasy back.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 290 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT
Arian Foster – 105 yards rushing / 1 TD / 30 yards receiving
Andre Johnson – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jacoby Jones – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD
Joel Dreessen – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Titans 17, Texans 27 ^ Top

Chargers @ Colts - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It doesn’t seem to matter who is starting at wide receiver because Philip Rivers is playing the kind of football that can make just about anyone look like a superstar out there. His unbelievable accuracy and leadership make him a very strong candidate for league MVP this season, and he remains on pace to break the NFL’s single-season passing yardage record. Vincent Jackson will make his 2010 debut this week, and it comes at a very important point in the season for the Chargers. Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd are still banged up and missing time, and San Diego also lost Patrick Crayton last week when he was injured during a touchdown reception. This depleted group of receivers will get a shot in the arm from Jackson, the team’s leading receiver in 2009 and a favorite target of Philip Rivers.

Over his past two games (against the Texans and the Broncos) Rivers has thrown eight touchdowns. While the Colts are better than either of those teams at stopping the pass, that is largely due to opposing teams running the ball rather than passing against Indianapolis. With Ryan Mathews still hurt, expect the Chargers to throw the ball all day, extending Philip Rivers’ league-leading fantasy point total.

Running Game Thoughts: A breakout game from running back Mike Tolbert last week helped the Chargers pull closer to the top of their division with a win over their hated rival, the Denver Broncos. With Ryan Mathews out, Tolbert ran the ball 25 times for 111 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions for 42 yards. While one of the receptions was a fake punt that probably won’t happen again this season, Tolbert’s value in the offense is definitely on the rise.

With Mathews likely out again this week according to sources, it will be interesting to see how much the Chargers attack the Colts’ 22nd-ranked fantasy run defense. The Colts have allowed 100 or more yards rushing in eight of their first ten games and have made otherwise mediocre players like Washington’s Ryan Torain look like fantasy stars. While Mike Tolbert hasn’t established himself as one of the league’s best backs, his ten total touchdowns make him the second-best running back in the NFL at scoring. If the Chargers can stay in the game, he’s a good bet to get into the end zone again this week.

Projections:
Philip Rivers – 320 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT
Mike Tolbert – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Darren Sproles – 20 yards rushing / 45 yards receiving
Vincent Jackson – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Malcom Floyd – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Seyi Ajirotutu – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Antonio Gates – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Week 11’s game against the Patriots was full of highs and lows for the 2009 league MVP. Peyton Manning has always had his troubles against New England, but rarely do we see footage of him throwing a game-sealing interception in the fourth quarter. While his three interceptions were his highest total since he matched that number nearly a year ago against the Broncos, we should keep in mind that this is still Peyton Manning. He still leads one of the NFL’s most potent offenses, and he simply doesn’t let games like that get into his head—and if he’s on your fantasy team, he simply has to be in your lineup.

Unfortunately, his being in your lineup means that you’re going to be starting a quarterback against the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns only once this season, and their pass rush—particularly that of Shawn Phillips—has been smacking quarterbacks around in recent weeks. Peyton Manning is perhaps the best in the league at getting rid the ball before taking a sack, but his history against the Chargers tells us that this game might be more of a challenge than the typical Colts aerial show.

Running Game Thoughts: Running game? What running game? With Joseph Addai out, the Colts have been relying on 2009 first-round pick Donald Brown, who has yet to show that he was worth the pick. Brown did crack the 100 total yard mark for the first time this season during last week’s loss to the Patriots, but the Colts still have to be hoping and praying that Joseph Addai will be back soon. Addai has been limited in practice all week as he recovers from a shoulder injury that has kept him out since Week 6, but the Colts do expect him to be back either this week or next. The problem is that we don’t know which it will be, and with the Colts playing a night game, it might be too late to replace Addai in your lineup if he doesn’t play. Don’t risk it this week unless you absolutely have to.

Though the Chargers have been more beatable on the ground than through the air, they have still done an excellent job of keeping opposing running games in check. They have held opponents to under 70 yards rushing in six of their first ten games while limiting those same teams to just three rushing touchdowns. Their worst games have come against some of the league’s best backs— Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, and the duo of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. Needless to say, the Colts running game is not on par with those, and they will likely continue to pass the ball as much as possible—at least until Addai is ready to take the majority of the carries.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 280 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT
Donald Brown – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 30 yards receiving
Joseph Addai – 25 yards rushing / 0 TD / 15 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD
Blair White – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jacob Tamme – 65 yards receiving / 2 TD

Prediction: Chargers 24, Colts 30 ^ Top