11/12/10
Ravens @ Falcons
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: After throwing just five touchdowns in his
first five games, Flacco has turned into a fantasy star over his
past three by throwing seven touchdowns in that time-span. Better
yet, his turnovers have gone down significantly, having not thrown
an interception since his Week 4 matchup in Pittsburgh. Wide receiver
Anquan Boldin had a disappointing game against an average Miami
pass defense, but Derrick Mason stepped in to complete his second
double-digit fantasy day over his past three games.
Atlanta’s secondary has been very beatable lately, having
allowed eight touchdown passes over their past three games—and
none of them to great quarterbacks. In fact, the Falcons have
played against what might be the worst set of opposing quarterbacks
in fantasy football this season. A case could very easily be made
that Joe Flacco is the second best quarterback the Falcons have
played this year—and the one better than him, Drew Brees,
torched their secondary for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Look
for Flacco and the Ravens’ passing game to have a big day.
Running Game Thoughts: Running
back Ray Rice is fresh off of a 180 total-yard performance that
resulted in his third double-digit fantasy day in his past four
games. Though he hasn’t been the fantasy stud that many
owners drafted him to be, his yardage totals have been good enough
to keep him fantasy relevant and make him a must-start in almost
every league. Rice continues to lose red zone touches to veteran
backup Willis McGahee but keep in mind, he also took his share
with seven red zone carries last week. Rice still only has two
touchdowns on the year—both of which came against the Broncos
in Week 5, but he still has to stay in most lineups.
Rice and McGahee will be going up against the Falcons’ run
defense that has only allowed two rushing touchdowns all year.
They’re fresh off of stopping the Buccaneers’ LaGarrette
Blount, who was one of Week 9’s most popular waiver wire
acquisitions. McGahee and Rice are complete opposites when it
comes to how they earn their fantasy points, and given Atlanta’s
tendencies to keep opposing backs out of the end zone, it may
only be Rice who has much value this week.
Projections:
Joe Flacco – 265 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT / 5 yards
rushing
Ray Rice– 65 yards rushing / 0 TD / 45 yards receiving /
1 TD
Willis McGahee – 30 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Anquan Boldin – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Derrick Mason – 55 yards receiving / 0 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Todd Heap – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The big question for this game is the health
of star wide receiver Roddy White who is listed as questionable
for the first Thursday game of 2010. White did practice on Wednesday,
but was limited with a knee injury. While practicing on Wednesday
does bode well for his chances to play, he will not be 100 percent
for the game and it could affect what is otherwise a mediocre
Atlanta Falcons passing game.
Even if White is healthy, he will have a tough time against the
Ravens’ secondary. Though they lack the big names outside
of Ed Reed, the Baltimore secondary has been stout against the
pass in most games this season. They have held opposing quarterbacks
to zero touchdowns in four of their first eight games, including
last week when they did it to Chad Henne while also intercepting
him three times. While Matt Ryan is one of the better quarterbacks
that the Ravens have played this season, without Roddy White he
could be in for a long day.
Running Game Thoughts: After rushing
for just one touchdown in his first six games, Michael Turner
has turned it on in his last two, scoring four times while compiling
over 250 yards of total offense. His backfield counterpart Jason
Snelling has seen less and less carries to the point he is merely
a handcuff to Turner and does not have much fantasy value on his
own. On the bright side, Turner’s value increases as he
is getting the vast majority of the carries, particularly at the
goal line where he has been so successful in the past.
Unfortunately for Turner, he is facing a Baltimore Ravens run
defense that has yielded just five touchdowns to opposing running
backs on the year, including holding the Jets’ RBss to 80
total yards and a touchdown. They have looked more beatable as
of late, however, having surrendered over 100 total yards to both
the Dolphins and Bills’ running backs in back-to-back weeks.
Projections:
Matt Ryan – 230 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Michael Turner – 90 yards rushing / 2 TD
Jason Snelling – 15 yards rushing / 0 TD / 20 yards receiving
Roddy White – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD
Tony Gonzalez – 55 yards receiving / 0 TD
Prediction: Ravens 24, Falcons
21 ^ Top
Bengals @ Colts
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: What a turnaround it has been for Bengals
quarterback Carson Palmer. After throwing 21 touchdowns in 2009,
Palmer has already thrown 14 in his first eight games this year.
He has been throwing them at an absolutely tremendous pace as
of late as is now on a streak of five straight games with two-or-more
touchdown passes. Owens has scored four times in the past two
weeks and is currently on a five game touchdown streak himself.
Palmer and Owens are currently the hottest duo in the NFL and
while Chad Ochocinco seems to be the forgotten player in this
offense, his ability to draw double-teams from the defense has
been a tremendous asset.
Palmer and the Bengals will face the Colts who have been notoriously
excellent against opposing quarterbacks, though they rank near
the middle of the pack in stopping them this season. They have
held opposing quarterbacks to under 10 fantasy points in five
of their first eight games. The other three games (at Denver,
at Jacksonville, and at Philadelphia) have either involved the
opposing team being blown out and giving up on the run, or the
quarterback rushing for a touchdown. The Bengals’ offense
is good enough to keep up with the Colts so don’t expect
them to pass 50 times like the Broncos did, but also don’t
expect to see Carson Palmer rushing for a touchdown. This could
be a surprisingly difficult matchup for the red hot Bengals pass
offense.
Running Game Thoughts: After rushing
for 100-plus yards in six games in 2009, Bengals running back
Cedric Benson has only topped the 100-yd mark once in 2010. He
has still been a fairly solid starter most weeks, he is ranked
only 18th among running backs, which must be disappointing for
many owners who drafted him as high as the early third or even
late second round in some leagues. His touchdown against the Steelers
last week is a sign the Bengals want to get him more involved
in the offense, but his inability to run the ball for big chunks
of yardage has been a concern.
While the Colts have been good against the pass in recent years,
their run defense has been almost comically bad at times. While
no one has gouged them like the Texans did in Week 1, the Colts
have allowed over 100 yards rushing in every game except one this
season. Their undersized defensive line and pass-focused defense
bodes well for opposing running backs as long as their team can
keep from getting blown out.
Projections:
Carson Palmer – 225 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 110 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Bernard Scott – 25 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving
Terrell Owens – 85 yards receiving / 0 TD
Chad Ochocinco – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jordan Shipley – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jermaine
Gresham – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning started the season with three
straight three-touchdown games, but has failed to get to that
number since. The Colts have a tremendous amount of injuries among
their receivers including losing Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez
for the year while they’ll still be without Austin Collie
for the foreseeable future. That said, Peyton Manning seems to
make everyone around him look amazing, and he still has his trusty
top target, Reggie Wayne. While Wayne has only caught one touchdown
in his past six games, he remains a very consistent starter especially
in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, new tight end Jacob Tamme has filled
in admirably for Dallas Clark in his first two starts. Tamme has
caught 17 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns in that span.
The Bengals pass defense has been excellent this season, holding
opposing quarterbacks to under 10 points in five of eight games.
That said, only one of the quarterbacks they have faced has been
on Peyton Manning’s level, and that was Tom Brady in Week
1 who tore them apart for 258 yards and three touchdowns. The
Bengals have intercepted at least one pass in every game since
that debacle and currently rank 7th at shutting down opposing
quarterbacks on the year. Then again, this is Peyton Manning,
so all that information may be irrelevant—the guy is a machine.
Running Game Thoughts: Rushing
the ball effectively has long been a problem for the Indianapolis
Colts and it is especially difficult when their top back, Joseph
Addai, has now missed two straight games with a shoulder injury.
The combination of Donald Brown, Mike Hart, and Javarris James
have filled in for Addai, but only Hart appeared to look capable
of being a true replacement for Addai before he also went down
with an injury. Javarris James did rush for two touchdowns last
week, but don’t be fooled—the Colts generally like
to pass everywhere on the field, goal line included, and James
isn’t necessarily going to get the goal line carries over
Brown.
Like the Colts, the Bengals have also allowed over 100 yards
rushing in every game except one this season and they have also
allowed at least one rushing touchdown in seven straight games.
Fortunately for them, they are playing a Colts rush offense that
ranks 25th in rushing yards per game. The Colts will likely look
to get between 60-80 yards from their running game again this
week while leaning heavily on Peyton Manning and the passing attack
to be the biggest part of their offense.
Projections:
Peyton Manning – 305 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT
Donald Brown – 40 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Javarris James – 25 yards rushing / 0 TD
Reggie Wayne – 115 yards receiving / 0 TD
Pierre Garcon – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Blair White – 40 yards receiving
Jacob Tamme – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Prediction: Bengals 17, Colts 27 ^ Top
Texans @ Jaguars
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to believe that the Matt
Schaub we’ve seen lately is the same guy who led the entire
NFL in passing in 2009. Though he has only thrown more than one
interception in one game this season, he is currently on a fantasy
skid over his past four games, throwing for just three touchdown
passes in those games combined. It hasn’t helped that his
top receiver, Andre Johnson, has been hobbled by injury, but Johnson
has mostly been very effective when he’s been in the game.
Through all this, the perfect cure for the Houston passing game
may be the Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense which has already
allowed 17 passing touchdowns in just eight games. The Jaguars
have been absolutely miserable at stopping opposing quarterbacks,
having conceded at least 12 fantasy points in every game this
season. Even in Week 8, against the Jon Kitna-led Cowboys, while
they intercepted four passes, they also allowed him to throw for
379 yards. If Matt Schaub can’t tear up this defense, it
may be time to bench him for good.
Running Game Thoughts: We’re
now past the halfway point in the season and the word “fluke”
is starting to finally go away in reference to Houston Texans
second-year running back Arian Foster. Foster, who leads the NFL
in rushing, has now compiled double-digit fantasy points in every
game except one this season and has topped the 20-point mark an
amazing five times in eight games. His ability to catch the ball
out of the backfield is a valuable asset that the Texans have
made great use of as he is also fourth among running backs in
receiving yardage, with 315 yards on the year.
Foster faces the Jaguars who have allowed five rushing touchdowns
in their past three games, and have also allowed 400 yards rushing
during that span—and that includes a game where they held
the Cowboys to just 38 yards rushing. While the Jaguars’
run defense is better than their pass defense, it’s only
because one has to be better than the other—they are also
bad against the run and currently rank 23rd in points surrendered
to opposing running backs. Look for a big day from Arian Foster.
Projections:
Matt Schaub – 255 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT
Arian Foster – 125 yards rushing / 2 TD / 25 yards receiving
Derrick Ward – 20 yards rushing / 0 TD
Andre Johnson – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jacoby Jones – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Kevin Walter – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD
Joel Dreessen – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off of a bye week and the biggest
fantasy week of his life against the Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars
quarterback David Garrard has to be considered one of the hottest
fantasy quarterbacks for Week 10. In his last three full games,
Garrard has thrown for an impressive nine touchdown passes while
throwing only one interception and also added a rushing touchdown.
The problem is that it has been extremely difficult to predict
which of his receivers will do much of anything. Mike Sims-Walker
seems to be the top target, but with only one game of 50-plus
yards in his past six, he remains extremely inconsistent.
That inconsistency could be on an up-swing this week, however,
as the Jaguars face the Texans defense that ranks dead last with
20 passing touchdowns allowed this year. They have allowed multiple
touchdown passes in every game but one this season, have allowed
200-plus yards passing in every game, and are currently on a streak
of allowing 12 touchdowns over their past four games. Philip Rivers
tore them apart last week with no-name receivers, so look for
David Garrard and the Jaguars to attack early and often with their
passing game.
Running Game Thoughts: To say that
2010 has been a disappointment for Maurice Jones-Drew would be
a saying it nicely, but Jones-Drew was able to crack 100-yards
for the second time this year in his last game against the Cowboys.
He does have double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games
and is coming off of a bye—not to mention, you probably
drafted him early in the first round so it’s not likely
that you’ll have better options than him this week. He has
struggled, but likely remains a must-play for most fantasy owners.
The Texans run defense has been hit-or-miss this season but have
been interestingly susceptible to passes to opposing running backs.
They have averaged over 50 yards receiving to opposing running
backs over the past five games and that could very well be the
best way for the Jaguars to attack with Jones-Drew, who is a very
good receiver out of the backfield. Expect to see the Jaguars
use a heavy dose of screen passes to get their star running back
in the open field.
Projections:
David Garrard – 235 yards passing / 3 TD / 0 INT / 10 yards
rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 50 yards rushing / 0 TD / 65 yards
receiving
Mike Sims-Walker – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Mike Thomas – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Prediction: Texans 31, Jaguars 24 ^ Top
Panthers @ Buccaneers
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Just when it seemed that Matt Moore may
be ready to give the Panthers a chance to compete in some games,
he goes down with a torn labrum and is now out for the season.
Once again, the Panthers will turn to rookie quarterback Jimmy
Clausen who has looked horrendously bad in his short stint in
the NFL. Clausen has thrown just one touchdown pass to four interceptions
while fumbling seven times. Steve Smith is really the only player
in this passing game who is worth owning this year and even he
has been wildly inconsistent.
To make matters worse, Clausen and the Panthers will be going
up against the Buccaneers’ secondary that has intercepted
a league-best 14 passes this year. While they have allowed at
least one passing touchdown in every game this season, including
one to Matt Moore in Week 2, the Buccaneers absolutely make up
for it by forcing turnovers and keeping quarterbacks from compiling
big yardage. Only two teams have passed for over 250 yards against
Tampa Bay this season and Clausen doesn’t have a chance
to be the third. The Panthers’ other rookie quarterback,
Tony Pike, has had his name mentioned as a potential replacement
for Clausen if he doesn’t play well on Sunday and in upcoming
games. Try to avoid this passing game if at all possible.
Running Game Thoughts: Another place of disaster for the Panthers
has been their running game. While DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan
Stewart were considered perhaps the best one-two punch in the
league coming into 2010, neither has played up to that level this
year and both have been a monumental flop in fantasy football.
Thankfully for fantasy owners, both of them are injured this week
and will likely miss the game, so we can all keep both of them
out of our lineup and avoid the inevitable disappointment. The
Panthers will turn to Mike Goodson to carry the ball this week.
Goodson has rushed for just over 3 yards per carry this season
and doesn’t bring much upside from a fantasy standpoint.
He is, however, a better receiver than many would consider him
and he has already caught 17 passes in limited playing time this
year.
The Buccaneers would be a good team to start a quality running
back against as they currently rank 28th in the league in points
allowed to opposing running backs. The problem is that Carolina
simply doesn’t have a quality running back healthy this
week and even if they did, both Stewart and Williams have already
disappointed fantasy owners against bad defenses this season.
Carolina likely won’t stay in this game for very long and
that could mean a tough day for anyone gutsy enough to start Mike
Goodson.
Projections:
Jimmy Clausen – 165 yards passing / 0 TD / 2 INT
Mike Goodson – 30 yards rushing / 0 TD / 45 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD
David Gettis – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Brandon LaFell – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week, another solid fantasy performance
from Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman who has now produced between
12-19 fantasy points in eight of his first nine games this season.
Though he threw two interceptions for the first time this year,
Freeman added two touchdowns for the first time since week two,
and continued adding to his quiet rushing total by adding 26 yards
on the ground. Wide receiver Mike Williams scored his fifth touchdown
of his rookie year last week and continues to make a case as one
of the top candidates for the 2010 Offensive Rookie of the Year
award.
Williams has caught four or more passes in every game but one
this season—that game was against the Panthers in Week 2.
However, Williams did catch a touchdown in that game so his fantasy
points didn’t suffer. The Panthers have actually been surprisingly
good against opposing quarterbacks this season, but many would
say that has a lot to do with the fact that they’ve been
down in so many games and teams decide to just run the clock instead
of choosing to extend their lead with the passing game. In any
event, they haven’t allowed a huge passing game against
them and have only allowed one three touchdown game on the year
to opposing quarterbacks. While Josh Freeman remains a consistent
fantasy quarterback, he isn’t going to win many games by
himself, and this isn’t as much of a cupcake matchup as
it might look on paper.
Running Game Thoughts: After a monster performance against the
Cardinals in Week 8, fantasy owners who rolled the dice on Tampa
Bay Buccaneers running back LaGarrette Blount were disappointed
in Week 9 when he rushed for just 46 yards and failed to get into
the end zone. With full back Earnest Graham out with a hamstring
injury, Blount didn’t receive the lead blocking in Week
9 that he did in Week 8, and that could be the case again this
week if Graham is out again. Cadillac Williams still received
eight carries during the game, but contributed a measly 13 yards
and seems to be being used less and less as a runner as the weeks
go on. He also caught just one pass after catching 18 in the previous
three games.
The Panthers’ run defense has been mediocre and is coming
off of a horrible performance where they allowed the New Orleans
Saints’ set of no-name running backs rush for 149 yards
and a touchdown. The biggest problem for the Panthers’ run
defense is their own offense doesn’t put up enough points
so opposing teams just continue to run the ball at them all day
in an effort to milk the clock. They’ve been run on over
20 times in every game and over 30 times in five games this year.
No matter how good a run defense is, 30 rushes is tough to stop.
Expect the Buccaneers to creep near that number and some decent
fantasy numbers to come with it.
Projections:
Josh
Freeman – 170 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT / 20 yds rushing
LeGarrette Blount – 115 yards rushing / 1 TD
Cadillac Williams – 20 yards rushing / 0 TD / 25 yards receiving
Mike Williams – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Micheal Spurlock – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Kellen Winslow – 25 yards receiving / 1 TD
Prediction: Panthers 9, Buccaneers 24 ^ Top
Cowboys @ Giants
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard say exactly how the Cowboys
offense will run under new management, but since new Head Coach
Jason Garrett was running the offense as the OC under Wade Phillips
things likely will not change all that much. Even after Tony Romo
was lost to a collarbone injury, the Cowboys still ran a heavily
unbalanced offense, which favored the pass. In another somewhat
surprising development it has been rookie WR Dez Bryant that has
produced the best numbers of all the Cowboy WRs under Kitna, at
the expense of veterans Roy Williams and Miles Austin who have
both struggled in recent weeks. It will be interesting to see
if the Boys eventually turn the offensive reigns over to youngster
Stephen McGee should the team continue to falter – however
expect the veteran Kitna to be the man for the foreseeable future
as Jason Garrett will surely want to get a few wins under his
belt in order to help his future job opportunities.
Kitna will be facing off against the Giants’ top ranked
pass defense, and a team that has knocked it’s fair share
of QBs (including Tony Romo) out of action already this season.
Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are playing lights out once again
causing opposing QBs to be aware of the pressure they’ll
be under when they face New York.
Running Game Thoughts: Before the
start of last week’s game, the Cowboys staff reportedly
told RB Tashard Choice to “be ready”. Boy did he look
“ready” on those three carries he got to close out
the blowout loss to the Packers. The Cowboys o-line has been abysmal
and Jason Garrett falls in love with the passing game once the
whistle blows, and therefore the Cowboys running backs have been
a fantasy afterthought this season, despite their talent and promise.
Perhaps they come out this week looking to shake things up and
slow down the Giant pass rush by trying to establish the run –
but I wouldn’t count on it.
The Giants have stymied opposing RBs in recent weeks and are the
No. 2 ranked run defense. They have held Arian Foster to 25 yards
rushing and rookie sensation Jahvid Best to 16 yards rushing this
season already and overall they have allowed 80.9 ypg and only
4 TDs on the ground. It would be real difficult to recommend any
Cowboy RB.
Projections:
Jon Kitna: 275 yds passing 2 TDs, 2 Ints. / 15 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 45 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 70 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 40 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 25 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Passing
Game Thoughts: A few weeks back I stated, “Eli Manning
continues to be under-rated in the fantasy football community
despite his consistent, and at times outstanding, production”.
Those days may be coming to an end, after another outstanding
performance last week in Seattle where he threw for 290 yards
and 3 TDs. He is surrounded by three young and talented WRs that
each compliment the others - Hakeem Nicks is the go to stud, Steve
Smith is the precise route running security blanket and Mario
Manningham is the deep threat. Right now the offense is operating
like a well-oiled machine and don’t expect that to stop
against a defense that has already laid down and died.
The Cowboys must rely on their above average pass rush in order
to rattle Manning and hope that he’ll in turn the ball over
a few times, which has been his one negative trait thus far. If
they cannot manage to get to the QB, expect some big plays against
the ‘Boys inferior secondary that Manning already lit up
a few weeks back.
Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw has worked his way into
the mix of top 10 fantasy RBs with his performance so far this
season, despite inconsistent TD production. At times the Giants
have used backup RB Brandon Jacobs to vulture TDs, but Bradshaw
has proven to be capable of delivering at the stripe when called
upon as he did last week in Seattle, where he scored two short
TDs.
The Cowboys can be run on, as they have allowed 123.9 rushing
yards per game and 6 rushing TDs on the season. They have fallen
down the ranks quickly after getting off to a good start to the
season statistically. Perhaps the firing of Wade Philips gives
this team a shot in the arm, but they have seemed to have given
up in recent weeks. If the Giants get off to a quick start, expect
that to continue.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 20 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 15 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Prediction: Giants 28 Cowboys 17 ^ Top
Titans @ Dolphins
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Randy Moss may have landed in one of the
better spots he could have hoped for if he wants to earn a big
payday for next season. Vince Young doesn’t fill up the
box score with gaudy stats, but he sure does throw a nice deep
ball and the Titans offense is predicated on the run game, and
play action with deep strikes downfield. If Moss can help make
the Titans a consistent and feared passing attack, he should be
in demand for next season. Kenny Britt who was emerging as one
of the better young WRs in the game popped his hamstring and will
miss several weeks which is all the better for Moss, as he should
be the focal point of the deep passing game now.
Miami has played the pass fairly well in 2010 and held Randy Moss
without a catch when they faced him as a member of the Patriots.
They are allowing 213.9 ypg and 12 TDs on the season and have
sacked opposing QBs 21 times, including 8.5 form emerging star
Cameron Wake. Their aggressive attacking style has not led to
may turnovers however. Expect the Titans to try and make Moss
happy and keep his head in the game right away by taking a few
shots downfield early.
Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps the incredible workload that went
into the Titans trying (successfully) to get Chris Johnson his
2,000 yard rushing season last year has taken its toll a little.
While I am not one the prescribes to the 370 touch theory (or
whatever number you want to use), Johnson does seem a little less
explosive than he did last season and the big plays haven’t
been as plentiful. That’s not to say that he still isn’t
one of the best running backs in the league or that he wasn’t
worth the No. 1 overall pick, as he is and he was. There are theories
out there that the addition of Moss will open things up for Johnson
giving him more running room – but I’ll take a cautious
approach with that. Opposing defenses will still game plan to
stop Chris Johnson and let Vince Young try and beat them, Moss
or no Moss, in my opinion. However, adding another deep threat
surely isn’t going to hurt Johnson any.
Miami’s run defense has done a nice job holding down opposing
running backs in 2010. They are allowing 107.1 ypg and only 4
TDs in the eight games they have played so far. However they did
allow big plays to a similar back in Ray Rice last week and allowed
his backup Willis McGahee to score on a long catch and run. The
unit will surely have its hands full with Johnson this week.
Projections:
Vince Young: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 35 yds rushing
Randy Moss: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Washington: 60 yds receiving
Bo Scaife: 35 yds receiving
Chris Johnson: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 35 yds receiving
Passing
Game Thoughts: Chad Henne has regressed over the past few
weeks and will therefore be replaced by veteran Chad Pennington.
To be fair to Henne, he has faced a real tough schedule (including
Pittsburgh and Baltimore) during the last few weeks and this may
just be a desperation move by a struggling team. Brandon Marshall
has been consistently double teamed limiting his production, leaving
slot WR Davone Bess a lot of opportunities, which he has done
well with. Bess has always been a fine route runner with outstanding
hands and concentration, but has also shown some surprising big
play ability as well this year. Expect Bess to shine with the
smart and accurate Pennington under center.
Pennington will face a tough test this week. While the Titans
are only ranked 23rd overall (239.1 ypc) in pass defense they
have only allowed 9 TDs through the air and feature a fierce pass
rush (28 sacks). The Titans have also picked off opposing QBs
13 times, which was an issue for Henne in 2010, but should not
be an issue for Pennington. Expect Cortland Finnegan to blanket
Marshall and receive help from his safety on most passing downs,
as that strategy has been an effective one most weeks when used
against the Dolphins. It will be up to Pennington to try and make
the Titans pay for doing so by spreading the love to other targets.
Running Game Thoughts: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams don’t
seem to be running as effectively as they had been the last two
seasons. Perhaps last season’s lis franc injury is still
slowing Brown down a little and maybe age has finally caught up
to Ricky, but there’s something that is obviously not right
with the pair. Brown did break out a little last week gaining
99 yards of total offense with a TD, but generally he hasn’t
shown much big play ability. The lack of a consistent running
game has only further hindered the passing game – since
their opposition doesn’t have to worry about moving a safety
up into the box and can use him on Marshall instead.
Projections:
Chad Pennington: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs
Brandon Marshall: 75 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 40 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Anthony Fasano: 20 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown: 55 yds rushing / 10 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 30 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Prediction: Dolphins 20 Titans 17 ^ Top
Lions @ Bills
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Poor Matthew Stafford. Hopefully his recent
spate of shoulder injuries doesn’t derail what looks like
it could be a very successful NFL career otherwise. Veteran Shaun
Hill is being rushed back into action after suffering a broken
arm a few weeks back so that Lions fans don’t have to suffer
anymore than they have already over the past 15 years, by watching
Drew Stanton lead the offense. Hill is a smart accurate QB that
played well in San Francisco over the past two years and earlier
this season with Detroit. He should do enough to keep Calvin Johnson
owners relatively happy – although he lacks the strong arm
that Stafford possesses.
The Bills pass defense is ranked 6th in the NFL on a per game
basis, but that stat is somewhat deceiving. While they are only
allowing 193.4 passing yards per game, they have allowed 17 TD
passes in 8 games so they’ve hardly limited fantasy QBs
or pass catchers. Also due to a very poor run defense, teams have
not attempted as many passes against the Bills as they would normally
have to against real defenses. Incredibly the unit also has only
1 interception on the season, after forcing 28 last year. Calvin
Johnson should feel like he’s visited Fantasy Island this
week after being stuck on Revis Island last week.
Running Game Thoughts: Jahvid Best has had an up and down rookie
season and is probably a little more bothered by his early season
toe injury than he has let on. He’s a dynamic talent with
great burst and cutting ability and as natural a receiver as players
that actually play the position. However, he has struggled at
times against the tougher defenses in the league. Fortunately
for Best and his owners he’s facing a team as far from the
best defenses in the league as I am from Albert “Norman”
Einstein as a genius.
The Bills are ranked dead last in run defense this season, and
have allowed many teams to run for over 200 yards against them
over the past season and a half. They have allowed 178.3 ypg and
9 TDs on the ground in 2010. Fantasy owners should crack a smile
any time their RB is facing the Bills.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 195 yards, 1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 40 yds receiving
Brandon Pettigrew: 25 yds receiving
Jahvid Best: 135 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving
Kevin Smith: 35 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Passing
Game Thoughts: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably the biggest
surprise of the fantasy season. On a points per game basis he
sits behind only Philip Rivers in the QB rankings, averaging 25.8
fantasy points per game. As an NFL QB, he’s a fiery leader
that is willing to do whatever it takes to win – often refusing
to slide when he scrambles. Unfortunately those traits and stats
have not translated into wins for the Bills. Of course, that is
more a result of the Bills shaky defense and o-line than due to
Fitzpatrick’s performance. Under Fitzpatrick, third year
WR Steve Johnson has developed into a fantasy stud receiver -
seemingly catching a TD pass each week, and recently adding outstanding
yardage totals each week as well. Perhaps the Bills will not need
Andrew Luck next season after all.
The Lions have defended the pass poorly allowing 233 ypg and 12
TDs, despite a resurgent defensive line that has put them among
the league leaders in sacks with 24. Rookie Ndamukung Suh and
veteran Kyle Vandenbosch play with motors that don’t stop
and have allowed the Lions to get to the QB without the need to
blitz. Fitzpatrick has better than average mobility at the QB
position and will likely spend some time running for his life
behind the porous Bills O-line.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills have not been able to establish
a running game all season, despite having savvy veteran Fred Jackson
and rookie speedster C.J. Spiller as better than average options.
Surprisingly Chan Gailey has made little use out of the rookie
that they chose with the 9th overall pick in the NFL draft, but
maybe he’s just trying to keep him healthy behind the Bills
inferior o-line in what looks to be a lost season.
The Lions are down amongst the worst run defenses in the NFL allowing
127.9 ypg and 9 TDs on the season. The team lacks impact talent
at the linebacker position and must address the position in the
offseason if they hope to ever become a upper echelon defense
under defensive minded head coach Jim Schwartz. They are an aggressive
unit, but not a formidable one.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 40 yds rushing
Lee Evans: 70 yds receiving
Steve Johnson: 100 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shawn Nelson: 25 yds receiving
C.J. Spiller: 25 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 90 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 27 Bills 24 ^ Top
Eagles @ Redskins
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Michael Vick has been one of the biggest
surprises this season and could be the NFL MVP (and possibly fantasy
MVP as well) if the season ended today. Vick is still a dynamic
runner but has surprisingly developed into a more than adequate
passer as well. He is finding DeSean Jackson downfield and letting
him make big plays as only Jackson can. Jeremy Maclin and Brent
Celek have not fared as well but haven’t been hurt most
weeks by Vick’s presence either, although both would likely
benefit from having more of a pure passer under center, as they
rely more on running precise shorter routes and Vick is more of
an improviser.
Washington is statistically the second worst pass defense in the
NFL allowing 280.9 ypg and 14 passing TDs on the season. The Skins
have a very talented secondary and a decent pass rush, but for
some reason have had trouble limiting opposing passing games over
the last two seasons.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie LeSean McCoy has slowed down a bit
after his torrid start to the season, but is still a must start
back most weeks. He is running a lot more decisively than he did
last season, where at times he seemed to make moves just for the
sake of making moves instead of just advancing the ball. McCoy
now runs with authority and has even excelled at the goal-line
stripe when called upon.
The Redskins have shown reasonable effectiveness against the run
(112.4 ypg), and have kept opposing runners from scoring (only
3 rushing TDs against them). The Washington linebackers are led
by Rocky McIntosh and crafty veteran London Fletcher, but its
hard-hitting safety LaRon Landry that really keeps the box small
and lays the wood on opposing running backs. Vick’s uncanny
moves and speed should be effective against a defense with below
average speed, but McCoy may struggle to make things happen.
Projections:
Michael Vick: 225 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 65 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 25 yds receiving
LeSean McCoy: 55 yds rushing / 50 yds receiving
Passing
Game Thoughts: This week McNabb will either come out with
something to prove (to Philadelphia for trading him and to the
Shanahans for benching him) and light up his former team or he
will shrink under the pressure and embarrassment caused by being
replaced with Rex Grossman with the game on the line two weeks
ago. As much as I’d like to see McNabb succeed, I’m
going to guess that the latter is the way this plays out.
The Eagles are allowing 214.9 ypg game and 14 TDs through the
air so far this season, so McNabb will have a chance to succeed.
However, CB Asante Samuel is a dangerous playmaker and could become
a thorn in McNabb’s side this weekend. Do look for the Eagles
to come after McNabb early in the game, because they know better
than anyone that a pressured McNabb is an ineffective McNabb.
Running Game Thoughts: The Shanahan RB carousel may take yet another
turn this week with Ryan Torain battling a hamstring injury and
Portis likely not quiet ready to return from his ripped groin
(ouch it hurts just writing that). If Torain can’t go it
will be undrafted rookie Keiland Williams, who up until now has
been relegated to a pass catching role, that will see the significant
carries. It’s hard to recommend any back right now until
we see how things shake out – but for now I’ll assume
that Torain plays this week and acts as the main ball carrier.
The Eagles have allowed 103.9 ypg and 6 TDs on the ground. They
have been much more effective in games that Stewart Bradley has
been in the middle of the run defense than when he was lost. The
matchup for the Skin’s RBs would be tough enough to give
one pause anyway, but due to the mystery that is Mike Shanahan
and the injuries to Torain and Portis, one would be better off
this week finding an alternative runner for your squad if possible.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 205 yds passing, 2 TDs, 3 Ints. / 15 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 35 yds receiving
Anthony Armstrong: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Chris Cooley: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Keiland Williams: 10 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Ryan Torain: 55 yds rushing
Prediction: Eagles 20 Redskins 14 ^ Top
Vikings @ Bears
- (Autry)
Passing
Game Thoughts: As good of a game Brett Favre had last week,
it still doesn’t mask the fact that this has been a hit-or-miss
season for ol’ grandpa. He’s thrown an interception
in every game this year but one, including multiple picks in half
of them. Favre’s receivers are tattered, with Percy Harvin
having mirgraine issues again, Sidney Rice yet to play in 2010,
and Bernard Berrian playing like……well…….Bernard
Berrian. If Harvin is unable to play this week—and at this
point of the week (Thursday evening) it’s still up in the
air—look for TE Visanthe Shiancoe to have a good game, if
for no other reason than he’d be the only viable receiving
option on the roster.
Chicago fields the 19th-ranked pass defense, but they’ve
surrendered a league-low five TD passes. Favre will have his hands
full trying to maneuver the Vikings’ offense down the field
via the passing game. Chicago also has the sixth-most interceptions,
so look for a turnover or two from Favre. Even though Favre threw
for more than 700 yards, five TDs and no interceptions in the
two games against the Bears last season, that was a different
Minnesota team on most every level. He won’t come close
to that kind of production this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week was the first time in a month
that Adrian Peterson got less than 24 carries. Much of that had
to do with Minnesota coming back from a two TD deficit in the
fourth quarter. The best part about that scenario is that Peterson
supplemented his lack of rushing attempts with a role in the passing
game. He caught his first TD pass since the first game of his
career in 2007. Chicago doesn’t give up many yards on the
ground, but only five teams have given up more rushing TDs. Peterson
has scored in four straight and six of the last seven games. Expect
that number to stretch to five consecutive games with a score—although
he may have a difficult time hitting the century mark in rush
yards. With the struggles expected by the passing game, running
lanes could be tough to find for Peterson.
Projections:
Brett Favre – 210 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Adrian Peterson – 90 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 70 yards
Bernard Berrian – 40 yards
Sidney Rice – 20 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 70 yards / 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: As a Jay Cutler owner myself, I tried to
be a sell-high owner and rid myself of him soon after his two-game
explosion to start the season. He tossed five TDs with one interception
against Detroit and Dallas; he’s only totaled four passing
TDs in the five games he’s played in since. And with this
week being bye-week heavy for top-shelf QBs Aaron Rodgers, Drew
Brees and Philip Rivers, Cutler will certainly get a lot of playing
time from owners he stored him away as their #2 QB. The good thing,
though, is that the areas in which Cutler struggles, so too do
the Vikings. He usually throws INTs in bunches and takes tons
of hits, but Minnesota has inexplicably been ranked among the
league’s worst in both categories all year.
Don’t expect Cutler to shred Minnesota’s defense.
His main concern should be taking care of the ball and orchestrating
a game plan that last week seemed to utilize more rollouts—a
not-to-veiled indictment of the O-line’s inability to stop
opposing pass rushers. I hope they use that approach more this
week. If they do, Cutler could be serviceable. At least I’m
hoping he will be.
Running Game Thoughts: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz indicated
this week that RB Chester Taylor could see more playing time against
his former team. Taylor’s not a bad option, especially when
you consider Matt Forte has only seen more than 17 carries once
this season. Forte will continue to have a roll in the passing
game, but by the sounds of it, Taylor will too. I wouldn’t
be so sure that his role would warrant a start in fantasy, but
it could certainly ruin the chances of a productive day from Forte.
Minnesota has recovered from a slow start defending the run;
they’re now the 7th-best in the league. They gave up only
53 rushing yards last week, but that number is skewed because
of the defensive and special teams scores from Arizona. Suffice
it to say, however, that Minnesota will be tough to run on. But
who are we kidding anyway? Martz would rather throw the ball anyway.
Projections:
Jay Cutler – 180 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Matt Forte – 55 yards rushing / 20 yards rec
Chester Taylor – 25 yards rushing / 15 yards rec
Johnny Knox – 50 yards / 1 TD
Earl Bennett – 30 yards
Devin Hester – 25 yards
Greg Olsen – 40 yards / 1 TD
Prediction: Chicago 20, Minnesota 17 ^ Top
Jets @ Browns
- (Autry)
Passing
Game Thoughts: After not turning the ball over through
the season’s first five games, Mark Sanchez has now tossed
interceptions in three straight. He did throw for a career-best
336 yards against Detroit last week, however, and made crucial
plays in crucial situations. And don’t look now, but Braylon
Edwards is starting to hold onto the football and make plays down
the field. He still talks too much, but hey, at least this year
he’s backing it up. And think he’s not exciting about
going back to Cleveland? He should have a big game. Santonio Holmes
is starting to heat up, and Dustin Keller is having one of the
most productive seasons at TE this year. Sanchez has weapons;
he simply needs to get back to securing the football and getting
his playmaking fantasy weapons the rock.
Cleveland has the 25th-ranked pass defense, and they’ve
given up a ton of passing TDs. Sanchez should be able to find
one of his receiving targets in the end zone, but the second-year
player is a risky play this week. The Jets could take the air
out the ball at any given moment during the game and utilize the
ground attack. That spells doom for those counting on the receiving
targets for New York during the crucial part of the fantasy season.
Perhaps the only confident start in this area for the Jets is
Keller; the others, simply proceed at your own risk.
Running Game Thoughts: New York has rushed for more than 100
yards as a team in each game this season, although the Lions limited
them to a season-low 110 yards—the Detroit Lions!!! With
Sanchez turning the ball over with regularity the last three games,
expect the Jets to get back to what has made them successful:
running the football. LaDainian Tomlinson’s rushing totals
have dropped since his week 4 game against Buffalo, although his
receptions have picked up a bit. He’s still the main cog
in a run-first offense, so he’s a must start this week.
But know this: Cleveland has only surrendered one rushing TD this
season. If anybody can break that string, though, it’s the
Jets and their superior offensive line, stubborn-as-a-mule head
coach, and determined running game looking to get back to dominance.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez – 205 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
LaDainian Tomlinson – 80 yards / 1 TD
Shonn Greene – 40 yards
Braylon Edwards – 70 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 40 yards
Jerricho Cotchery – 30 yards
Dustin Keller – 45 yards
Passing
Game Thoughts: Colt McCoy has thrown the ball a total of
35 times the last two games. And guess what? The Browns won both.
And guess what that means? Expect that formula to continue. McCoy
is the game manager who allows others on the offense to do their
thing. He has no turnovers in the last two contests and looks
fairly comfortable. Cleveland, for all intense and purposes, is
devoid of quality receiving threats on the outside—both
in reality and fantasy. The three-headed “monster”
of Mohamed Massaquoi, Chanci Stuckey and Josh Cribbs won’t
scare many, but opponents best keep an eye on TE Ben Watson. His
production has dropped off the table the last two games (only
two receptions total), but he still leads the team in receptions.
So when they look to pass, expect Watson to be in the crosshairs
of McCoy.
As big and bad as the Jets make themselves out to be on defense,
they’re only 18th against the pass. And for all the blitzing
they do, their 17 sacks are 11 fewer than the league-leading Green
Bay Packers. Is the Jets’ bark bigger than their bite? Perhaps.
But they’re still a formidable foe—especially against
a receiver-challenged opponent like Cleveland.
Running Game Thoughts: Each year, a player emerges from nowhere
to claim fantasy relevance, and this year Peyton Hillis is perhaps
the best of all. A dual threat at 250 lbs., Hillis is the fuel
that ignites Cleveland’s otherwise drab offense. He leads
the team in rushing and is second in receptions. The Browns’
offense goes as he goes, so expect plenty of opportunities for
him. And even though New York has the 4th-best rush defense, playing
against top-notch, run-stuffing defenses hasn’t prevented
Hillis from quality games at times in 2010. He bulldozed his way
to the best game of his career on the road against Baltimore in
week 3, so don’t count him out. Hillis has simply become
too valuable a fantasy commodity to bench at any point this season—regardless
of the opponent.
Projections:
Colt McCoy – 150 yards / 0 TDs / 1 INT
Peyton Hillis – 95 yards rushing / 35 yards rec / 1 rushing
TD
Mohamed Massaquoi – 40 yards
Chansi Stuckey – 20 yards
Josh Cribbs – 20 yards rec / 25 yards rushing
Ben Watson – 30 yards
Prediction: New York 17, Cleveland 10 ^ Top
Patriots @ Steelers
- (Autry)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady threw for multiple TDs in a game
last week for the first time since week 3. His interceptions are
way down—only two in the last six games—but he’s
not been the stellar QB many drafted him in the top two rounds
to be. Sure he’s steady and reliable, but his numbers have
been pedestrian for Brady’s standards. And what about Welker?
What happened to him? This guy has fallen almost completely off
the fantasy map. He hasn’t scored since week 2 and hasn’t
had more than 70 receiving yards since week 4. Maybe there was
more to Randy Moss being there opening things up for him after
all.
Surprisingly, teams have moved the ball quite well through the
air against Pittsburgh this season. Problem is opponents have
struggled throwing TDs against them. They’re among the league
leaders in that category. Don’t expect too much from Brady
this week. Pittsburgh’s playing too well overall right now,
and it seems New England is still trying to figure things out
offensively since Moss’ departure. Tread with caution this
week with your Patriots.
Running Game Thoughts: In typical New England fashion, no one
knows from week to week who will be the bellcow RB. BenJarvus
Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead could each be sneaky starts any
given week, but playing the guessing game with Bill Belichick
is a frustrating game. A week after going for more than 100 yards
and two scores, Green-Ellis evenly split carries with Woodhead.
But honestly, does it really matter? Pittsburgh has the league’s
stingiest run defense and has only allowed three rushing TDs.
So whether you have Green-Ellis or Woodhead, the best place for
them to be come Sunday is on your bench.
Projections:
Tom Brady – 220 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 35 yards
Danny Woodhead – 25 yards
Wes Welker – 65 yards
Deion Branch – 45 yards
Brandon Tate – 35 yards
Aaron Hernandez – 60 yards / 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger’s play has leveled
off after coming out on fire in his first two games. One TD and
two INTs in the last couple games don’t make for much optimism,
but the New England Patriots have stunk up the joint this season
against the pass. They’re 29th in the league against the
pass, so expect Roethlisberger to take a few chances down the
field, especially to the streaking Mike Wallace. Wallace leads
the league in yards-per-reception; expect several deep targets
his way against a struggling secondary. Hines Ward should be money
in this game too, most definitely in PPR leagues. The Patriots
struggle getting to the QB as well; 13 sacks so far this season.
Big Ben should be given plenty of time to scan the field and ward
off any rushers who get close. Roethlisberger should have a nice
bounceback game.
Running Game Thoughts: I remember rumors began flying late in
training camp that Rashard Mendenhall could possibly lose goal
line carries. Not that it created tension for his owners, but
it certainly wasn’t a good thing to hear nonetheless. Suffice
it to say those rumors proved worthless, as Mendenhall is quietly
having one of the most consistently productive seasons among fantasy
RBs. He’s scored in six of the eight games and has had not
even a sniff of a threat to his non-RBBC throne. Mendenhall is
as solid and predictable a fantasy RB as we have in the league.
New England’s 29th ranked defense overall has plenty of
holes that Mendenhall is sure to exploit. Start him with confidence
this week.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 230 yards / 2 TDs
Rashard Mendenhall – 110 yards / 1 TD
Mike Wallace – 105 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 65 yards / 1 TD
Heath Miller – 45 yards
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, New England 13 ^ Top
Chiefs @ Broncos
- (Eakin)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Great game this week between a Denver team
that loves to pass and faces a less than average pass defense
versus a Chiefs team that leads the league in rushing facing a
very weak run defense. The Broncos have the advantage of coming
off a bye and playing at home. The Chiefs will be fired up after
letting one get away against the Raiders. Dwayne Bowe scored again
last week running his total to six in his last five games. He
will show he has really arrived this week if he can keep it going
against CB Champ Bailey, whom insiders and scouts believe is having
a pro bowl year and his best in several seasons. The Chiefs passing
game is limited and will be more reliant on short dumps to TE
Moeaki and Jamaal Charles. The wild card this week is Dexter McCluster.
The team has struggled to score in the two games he has missed
with an ankle sprain. He will be a game time decision. In a game
where Champ Bailey can take out Bowe, the Chiefs will need his
playmaking ability.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chiefs
need to get back to their roots of running to victory. They threw
the ball more than the probably would have liked. The Broncos
were run over by the Raiders at home against the Raiders in their
last game so surely the Chiefs will test the waters. Because of
injuries the Broncos have had to change from a 3-4 defense scheme
to a 4-3. They think that getting back to the 3-4 scheme over
the bye week will solidify their run defense. In order for that
to happen they need one of their Des, namely Kevin Vickerson to
get back from injury. There were comments by HC Todd Hailey that
RB Jamaal Charles has an unspecified ailment. Speculation is that
he may have a tender shoulder, but it is not expected to keep
him out. He should play and have a huge day if the Broncos haven’t
made the proper adjustment s to their outside run containment.
The Raiders success was due in large part to allowing Darren McFadden
to get outside of the Des. Jamaal Charles makes his living getting
to the outside and is in for a big day.
Projections:
Matt Cassel: 160 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 60 yds
Chris Chambers: 40 yds
Tony Moeaki: 40 yds/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 85 yds/35 rec/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 60 yds/1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Orton should be able to move the ball through
the air. Both WRs Gaffney and Royal will have favorable matchups
and see lots of targets. Gaffney had his career high of 214 yards
in their last game versus the Chiefs. Watch the battle between
top five CB Brandon Flowers versus top five WR Brandon Lloyd.
Both are having great years. Lloyd is the primary deep threat
for the Broncos and has only has one game where he failed to reach
100 yards, and that was against Revis and the Jets. I think this
will be the second. He may break loose for a couple big plays
but the Broncos just won’t need to force it to him with
the other options having better matchups. Knowshon Moreno has
been a big help as well in the passing game when healthy. Look
for him to return to being a prominent threat in fantasy this
week, especially in PPR scoring leagues. Along with Moreno, Demeryius
Thomas may start seeing more action. He is healthy, and he is
the future, so they will want to get him some increased experience.
The Broncos have been one of the best offenses in total yards
but poor in the red zone. Thomas is a big strong target that is
ideal for converting some jump ball fades into scores.
Running Game Thoughts: There is no doubt that the Broncos want
to give Knowshon Moreno every opportunity to balance the pass
heavy offense averaging only 60 yards rushing per game. The question
is whether he can be productive enough to do so. The Broncos reshuffled
their o-line during the bye. Ryan Harris will be re-inserted back
to RT and Zane Beadles will move to guard. Beadles is a young
guy that has done well in run blocking, and could provide some
extra punch at the guard spot. The Chiefs are having been solid
against the run and rewarded their lead MLB Derrick Johnson with
a healthy contract extension this week. He is a strong tackler
and the 3-4 scheme should continue to keep the Broncos run game
from getting back on track this week.
Predictions:
Kyle Orton: 275 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Brandon Lloyd: 85 yds/1 TD
Jabar Gaffney: 70 yds
Eddie Royal: 60 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 60 yds/35 rec/1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 27 Chiefs 24 ^ Top
Rams @ 49ers
- (Eakin)
Passing
Game Thoughts: No reason t think that ROY favorite Sam
Bradford can’t pile on the struggling 49er pass defense.
Danario Alexander is limited in practice still so signs are pointing
to Brandon Gibson remaining the Rams main deep threat this week.
Gibson took a lead role with six receptions for 67 yards in the
Rams last game without Alexander. If he gets in the end zone he
begins to get discussed as a waiver wire option. This is the week
to play him because once Alexander returns his role may be dramatically
reduced. What is curious is that the speculation was that Danny
Amendola would see an increase in receptions after the big 12
catch game when Clayton was hurt. However, the opposite has occurred
with games of 3, 3, and 6 catches since. It may have gone somewhat
unnoticed due to his two scores during that stretch. Amendola
is close to becoming droppable unless he can get back on track
in this favorable match-up. I guess those comparisons to Wes Welker
continue to hold up, but in a bad way.
Running Game Thoughts: After a pretty strong start to the year
Steven Jackson has quietly slipped to just 16th in RB FPTs scored.
The problem is he just doesn’t score with just two touchdowns
on the year. The Rams have a conservative offense and don’t
provide many chances that were expected. What doesn’t make
sense is his lack of receiving yards, which should be more given
his skill set and a rookie QB that rarely throws downfield. Until
the coaching staff schemes more ways to get him in space, he will
remain a bit a disappointment, albeit a consistently productive
one. He is listed as limited in practice due to his finger fracture,
but there is little concern of him missing time since he has already
played just days after the surgery. He could struggle to find
much room to run facing the Niners MLBs Patrick Willis and Takeo
Spikes. They are allowing opposing RBs 100 yards per game which
is 10th best in the league.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 215 yds/1 TDs/1 INT
Brandon Gibson: 60 yds/1 TD
Danny Amendola: 45 yds
Daniel Fells: 40 yds
Steven Jackson: 85 yds/25 rec/1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Troy Smith is set to get his second start
in a row replacing an injured Alex Smith at QB. Smith started
against the Broncos in London and finished with a respectable
196 yards passing, with two TDs, one passing and one rushing.
The key in this game is whether the Rams can keep Smith in the
pocket. They like to blitz a lot and they get good pressure. The
Rams DEs Chris Long and James Hall have eleven sacks combined.
They will be able get pressure, which will be high risk high reward
when Smith uses his quickness to escape and catch the Rams in
one on one coverage break downs. MLB James Laurinaitis will have
the double duty of stopping Frank Gore and shadowing Smith when
he breaks out of the pocket. He’s a good young LB and will
need to have a great game for the Rams to have a chance. Smith
will rely TE Vernon Davis and Frank Gore to get rid of the ball
quick when pressured. Davis has four scores in his last five games,
continuing to prove he is among the elite options at the TE position.
The pass rush and solid pass defense will boost his value and
limit the effectiveness of WR Michael Crabtree. Crabtree will
need to adjust his routes back to Smith when plays break down
to have a big day, which is a bit of a gamble.
Running Game Thoughts: Surprising that the Rams defense ranks
better (8th) against the run than the Niners. The days of the
Rams being a soft matchup and potential fantasy boom for offensive
players are gone. That said, it’s not like benching Frank
Gore is an option, or recommended. Gore has produced as a top
five RB option all year. Rumors of Brian Westbrook taking third
down duties have not come to fruition. Most of their games are
close, and the coaches aren’t pulling their best player
off the field in must win games. Gore will continue to get around
35 touches and have a score or two.
Projections:
Troy Smith: 175 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 65 yds
Josh Morgan: 40 yds
Vernon Davis: 75 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 90 yds/35 rec/1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 23 Rams 17 ^ Top
Seahawks @ Cardinals
- (Eakin)
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Charlie Whitehurst era was never going
to go well facing the Giants defense that has been sending opposing
QBs to the training room more often than not. The Seahawks will
get some good medicine in the Arizona facing a defense that has
easily been one of the most disappointing and underachieving units
this year. They are 27th in pass defense and Greg “toll
booth” Toler should start charging WRs for passing through
him. This week lose change will be handed out by Deon Butler,
a talented young WR with enough juice to beat him for a big plays.
One time elite safety Adrian Wilson seams to finally be losing
a step or two. He is no longer the impact player he once was and
struggles in coverage. Hasselbeck timed everything perfect in
missing the Giants game and returning for the Cards. He can has
good chance to deliver a big day and rare Seahawk road win. Top
target Mike Williams has struggled of late with just three receptions
in their last two games. He will be key in the Seahawks hopes
moving forward.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch has been somewhat disappointing
of late as the Seahawks shiny new toy, but starting this week
his schedule really improves and I think he will have a big second
half. The Cardinals are equally poor against the run, also ranking
27th in run defense. As I stated a stated a few weeks ago, Lynch
is not the kind of RB that is going to explode when facing poor
defenses with big plays. He’s Marion Barber, he finishes
needs volume but should get it this week. He finishes runs well
and moves the pile. He had one of the more impressive seven yard
carries I’ve ever seen last week when he carried the entire
Giant defense on his back for five yards. With his style, the
Seahawks need to do a better job of mixing in Forsett. They could
develop a poor man’s Kansas City rushing attack by utilizing
their mixture of power and speed properly.
Predictions:
Matt Hasselbeck: 255 yds/1 TDs/1 INT
Mike Williams: 65 yds
Deon Butler: 70 yds/1 TD
John Carlson: 50 yds
Marshawn Lynch: 80 yds/1 TD
Justin Forsett: 35 yds/45 rec
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Anderson isn’t close to being
an elite talent in this league but he’s head and shoulders
better at this point in their careers than Max Hall. It was great
to see Larry Fitzgerald and him finally get on the same page last
week. Fitz posted his first 100 yard game of the year and may
begin to pay dividends down the stretch. He didn’t have
a big day the first time around facing the Seahawks but Seattle
was much healthier in that game. They enter this game with a beat
up defensive front that isn’t getting pressure on opposing
QBs like they were earlier in the year. Anderson doesn’t
make good decisions when pressured, but is more than capable of
delivering big plays when comfortable in the pocket. With all
the attention on Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston should also see some
single coverage where he will have a decided advantage now that
he has a week under his belt after returning from injury. Breaston
will see a lot of CB Kelley Jennings who has yet to pick a ball
off and can be picked on when the weakened pass rush fails to
reach Anderson.
Running Game Thoughts: The status of Beanie Wells is a bit of
a mystery this week. We know he has had swelling in his knee from
an allergic reaction to a shot but. He only carried the ball once
last week but it would seem the swelling should be dissipating
by now, yet as of Thursday he is still not practicing. He may
play but the Cards aren’t a team that likes to play players
who don’t practice during the week so it looks like this
will be a split between Tim Hightower and LaRod Stephens-Howling.
Neither makes for a confident play but both are capable of posting
big games. Hightower has failed to take advantage of Wells missed
time this year. He still can be an effective short yardage weapon
and receiver out of the backfield, but his potential carries considerable
risk. His struggles have continued to open the door for the explosive
open field runner/return man Stephens-Howling. He is a game-breaker
and could surprise in a favorable matchup like this if he gets
the touches.
Projections:
Derek Anderson: 230 yds/2 TDs/2 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 65 yds/1 TD
Early Doucet: 45 yds
LaRod Stephens-Howling: 35 yds/35 rec
Tim Hightower: 65 yds/1 TD
Prediction: Cardinals 27 Seahawks 24 ^ Top
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