Dolphins @ Jets (Marcoccio)

Chad Henne/Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams
Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -33.0%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.0%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -32.9%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -31.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Dolphins blew a big lead to the Saints last week. Although Chad Henne had two interceptions show up on his stat-sheet, WR Ted Ginn, Jr. was more to blame as he should have pulled in at least one of them for a catch. Ginn didn’t do his young QB any favors by dropping a few key balls as well. Word is that those drops have cost Ginn his spot in the starting line-up and he will be replaced by rookie Brian Hartline. The Dolphins are likely to take a few more chances downfield with the speedy Ginn and strong armed Henne than they did earlier in the season, but even more so now with a “rookie” QB, this is still a team that will live or die by their running game.

The Jets allowed second year QB Chad Henne to throw two scores against them three weeks ago, including a deep bomb to Ted Ginn despite having Darrelle Revis “covering” him at the time. However they were likely caught off guard a little by Henne and should be better prepared this time around. Rex Ryan switched up linebackers Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas last week against the Raiders putting Pace in position to rush the passer and he responded with three sacks. Expect that to continue and for the Jets not to back down from blitzing Henne, despite being burned by doing so in the last matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and the “Wild Cat” ran for 115 yards and 85 yards, respectively against the Jets in Week 5. Miami has been the only NFL team to truly master the single wing offense as they have the best personnel for it, two fast backs together in the backfield and young mobile o-line men who are adapt at pulling out in front of the runners. In addition, since it is practically their base offense they likely spend a lot more time practicing it and getting its timing down than those teams that break it out a couple of times per game.

As stated above, the Jets allowed the Dolphins’ Wild Cat offense to run wild on them in Week 5. The Jets’ front 7 were dominated for the first time this season in that contest and they have not been the same since. Both Buffalo and Oakland were successful running against them. The loss of NT Kris Jenkins during the Buffalo contest was a huge blow and will negatively impact the run defense – the rotation of Sione Pouha, Howard Green and Mike Devito replacing Jenkins is adequate but Jenkins was the heart and soul of the defense and an incredible talent.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 55 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 30 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 25 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 25 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 70 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Mark Sanchez/Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cothery/David Clowney/Dustin Keller (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.9%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.6%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +24.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: As expected it’s been a very up and down season for rookie QB Mark Sanchez. The two weeks he was very bad cost the Jets big time as they lost a close contest to the Saints as a direct result of two turnovers and lost to the lowly Bills when Sanchez threw for 5 interceptions. Last week against Oakland he was not asked to do much and played very well. The only blemish was “wiener gate”, where the cameras caught him chowing down on a hot dog late in the game. Braylon Edwards has disappeared since his first Jet game and the staff will need him to get back involved in the offense, especially if Jerricho Cotchery misses another week (although indications are that he will play this week). David Clowney had a long TD last week and will get the start again if Cotchery cannot go – if Cotchery does play Clowney will likely see some time in the slot.

Miami has been very poor against the pass and has now lost starting CB Will Allen for the season. They have allowed 233.5 yards per game and have given up over a TD per game. Sanchez had one of his “up” games against the this team last time out and there’s no reason to think we’ll see the “bad” Sanchez against them this time around at home. The Dolphins already lacked depth in the secondary and the loss of Allen will really hurt.

Running Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but old man Thomas Jones has moved back into the top 10 RB rankings, after gaining 333 yards and 2 TDs during the last two weeks. The Jets have made a greater effort to commit to the run to protect their rookie QB and the results have been outstanding. On the downside Leon Washington suffered a broken leg last week and is lost for the season. However, rookie Shonn Greene stepped in and gained 144 yards and 2 TDs in the rout of the Raiders after Washington went down. He should pick up significant carries spelling Jones for the rest of the season and now gains re-draft league relevance.

The Dolphins are the fourth ranked run defense (86.7 ypg) and have allowed 7 rushing TDs this season – with 3 coming last week where two of them came from QB Drew Brees. Channing Crowder, Joey Porter and Akin Ayodele are as high flying and hard hitting a line backer corp. as there is in the NFL. This week they will face battering ram Greene instead of the shifty Washington when Jones is on the sideline, so they will need to make some adjustments.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cothery: 30 yds receiving
David Clowney: 45 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 35 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 60 yds rushing

Prediction: Jets 20 Dolphins 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Eli Manning/ Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw
Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Hakeem Nicks/Kevin Boss (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.4%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.7%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -26.4%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +62.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning had a poor game for the second consecutive week. This time he threw 3 interceptions and looked out of synch with his receivers for most of the game. Manning has a history of getting off to great starts to the season before fading down the stretch, but this “fade” has come particularly early and isn’t due to the December winds of New Jersey. Perhaps it’s his foot barking, but he hasn’t been as sharp as he was during the first five weeks of 2009. Mario Manningham needs to hold onto the ball better if he wants to keep getting looks from Eli, as a few key drops last week cost the Giants at the Meadowlands. Hakeem Nicks is starting to emerge and may soon force his way into rookie of the year conversations. Expect Steve Smith to see more targets this week as Eli started to rely on him with the game on the line after ignoring him for much of the night.

The Eagles’ defense harassed Jason Campbell all night in Washington after allowing JaMarcus Russell to embarrass them the week before. They sacked Campbell six times and forced him into multiple turnovers including an interception returned for a TD by newcomer Will Witherspoon. Witherspoon also forced a fumble which was recovered by the Eagles – good thing the Rams have so much depth at linebacker that they were able to trade Witherspoon away last week. The blitz happy Eagles will now look to continue Manning’s woes by forcing him into a few more turnovers this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs to the fantasy community: “I’m not dead yet”. After getting some dirt tossed on him by much of the media (including here a little last week), Jacobs came out and had his best game of the season. He ran hard for 76 yards and a TD against a stout Cardinal run defense. Conversely Ahmad Bradshaw, who was appointed the “new sheriff in town” by some clueless writer’s last week, had his worst game of the season, including a costly fumble late in the game. Expect both backs to come out swinging this week against their hated rivals in Philadelphia.

The Eagles added Rams MLB Will Witherspoon last week to shore up their run defense, and although he made his biggest impact on passing downs, the Eagles were able to keep Clinton Portis at bay as last week. The Eagles defense could be a lot more formidable going forward once Witherspoon gets acclimated. On the season the team is only allowing 96.8 ypg on the ground with only 3 TDs.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 255 yds passing, 2 TDs, 2 Ints.
Steve Smith: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 40 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 10 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 45 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Donovan McNabb/LeSean McCoy
DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin/Brent Celek (vs. NYG)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -16.5%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -0.6%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -26.7%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +9.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week, I said: “Desean Jackson has game changing skills and just may be one of the top two fastest players in the league with the ball in his hands”. He made me look smart this past Monday night (not an easy task). McNabb wasn’t asked to do much, in a game where the tone was set early by two quick scores on a Jackson end around and a Will Witherspoon interception return. He didn’t look that sharp in that limited role though, after a poor effort in Oakland the week before. McNabb’s never been all that accurate, but he’s got the job done with far lesser talents than he has at his disposal now so don’t expect him to stop producing. Jeremy Maclin has replaced the injured Kevin Curtis in the line-up at WR and has flashed enough skills to show the Eagles that between him and Jackson, they may be set at the position for quite a while.

The injury depleted Giants secondary played very well against the Cardinals last Sunday Night. However, injuries to Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston slowed the pair down making them an easier cover than usual. Aaron Ross’ lingering hamstring injury and the loss of Kenny Philips to the IR has taken a toll, and the pass rush just hasn’t been as effective. Whether it’s because of the departure of Steve Spagnola or just because they’ve been banged up a little, the D-line just isn’t putting as much pressure on opposing QBs as they used to. With that said they still have 16 sacks on the season and are the second ranked pass defense (158.4 ypg). They will be best served by trying to keep Desean Jackson in front of them in Philly this weekend thus limiting his big plays.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook suffered a concussion on Monday Night and will most likely be out of the line-up in Week 8 (although they are calling him a GTD – which has become Westbrook’s middle name over the years). He hasn’t been quite the same player in year 30, but he is still an important part of the team and will be missed. Rookie LeSean McCoy will get his carries and looks. He played very well in Westbrook’s absence last time, but that was against Kansas City – expect the sledding to be a little tougher this week.

New York is ranked 15th in the league in run defense, allowing 103.6 ypg. They have allowed 10 TDs in 7 weeks including one each to Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower last week. McCoy is not built for goal line work, so it will be interesting to see if the Eagles attempt to run FB Leonard Weaver there or attempt to throw for a score should the opportunity arise.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 265 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 10 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 30 yds receiving
Desean Jackson: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 65 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Prediction: Eagles 24 Giants 21 ^ Top

Texans @ Bills (Marcoccio)

Matt Shaub/Steve Slaton/Chris Brown
Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -24.2%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +52.2%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -43.2%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +27.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: After a rough start to the season, against a ferocious Jet defense, Matt Shaub has become one of the top fantasy performers at the QB position. From an NFL perspective he may not make the Top 10, but from a fantasy perspective he’s right there with the Big 3 of Brady, Brees and Manning. Shaub is a smart passer, with good mobility and a strong enough arm to make all the necessary throws. In the past his biggest issue was staying healthy, but so far this season he has played through the nagging injuries and avoided the major ones. He gets to throw to one of the most physically gifted WRs in the league in Andre Johnson and has superior pass catchers at the TE and RB position. All of that adds up to a QB1 that you can set into your line-up despite the matchup.

Buffalo’s secondary has become healthier and with that more effective over the past several games. In the last two contests the Bills have intercepted the ball 8 times (9 if you count a Special Teams pick), albeit against an inconsistent rookie (Sanchez) and a turnover machine (Delhomme). Statistically on the season they are allowing 190.4 ypg, but as stated earlier they were down 3 starters in the secondary and are now missing only CB Leodis McKelvin. However, this week they will face a more formidable passing attack than they have recently, so we should get a better indication if the team has truly turned a corner or have just faced some poor QB performances the last three weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: Steve Slaton was a tremendous disappointment to fantasy owners the first couple of weeks, but is starting to show some return on investment over the past several weeks – especially to owners in ppr leagues. Slaton gained some weight in the offseason in an effort to help himself deal with the rigors of being an NFL RB. However, according to my eyeballs that weight may have done more harm than good. Slaton does not have the same explosiveness he showed last season and hasn’t really gained any additional power (he showed surprising power last season despite his smaller frame). Perhaps he will decide to go back to last season’s playing weight this offseason, once he has time to contemplate the 2009 v. 2008 season.

As good as the Bills pass defense has been the last three weeks, their run defense has been equally as bad and they now sit at the bottom of the league in yards allowed per game (172.4) and additionally, they have allowed 9 rushing TDs on the season. In two consecutive weeks, Jamal Lewis (117 yards) who was left for dead by many fantasy owners and football pundits scorched the Bills and 31 year old Thomas Jones broke the 200 yard mark against them. This should be a matchup for Steve Slaton to exploit.

Projections:
Matt Shaub: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs. / 5 yards rushing
Andre Johnson: 100 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Walter: 35 yds receiving
Owen Daniels: 75 yds receiving
Steve Slaton: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Chris Brown: 20 yds rushing, 1 TD

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Derek Fine (vs. HOU)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -0.7%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +11.4%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.7%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +2.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: For the second straight season Trent Edwards has missed time due to a concussion, which may signal some problems for him long term. Of course his play this season has already signaled some problems for him long term anyway. Former Harvard QB Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod for the second consecutive week. If your league awards bonus points for SAT scores get him in your line-up, otherwise avoid him as a bye week filler in all but the deepest of leagues. Unlike Edwards, Fitzpatrick has shown a willingness to take a few shots downfield at least and has helped make Lee Evans relevant once again (it would take an act of God or Ponce De Leon to make Terrell Owens relevant once again). Fitzpatrick is also a little more mobile than Edwards, which helps behind the Bills poor o-line.

Houston has been vulnerable through the air, allowing 228.4 ypg and 9 TDs on the season. After showing some major ability, that put eggs on all the faces that criticized the Texans for taking him over Reggie Bush, Mario Williams has struggles getting to the passer this season – and Houston has only 9 sacks on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Since coming back from his early season suspension, Marshawn Lynch has gradually gained a larger portion of the RB workload. This has made Fred Jackson – who was the early season bright spot in the Bills offense – a droppable player in more shallow leagues. Lynch hasn’t looked fantastic, but is a hard runner who is able to gain a few yards even when no holes are there (and that is quite often). As the young line jells, perhaps there is some hope, but without effective blocking and with not much of a passing threat, the Buffalo run game is one that should be avoided if possible.

Houston has some nice young talent at linebacker in Demarco Ryans and Brian Cushing, but is still not getting the job done in run defense (115.6 ypg and 10 TDs on the season). It seems each season the defense as a whole shows some promise of potentially turning it around, but they never get quite there. They have spent a ton of high draft picks on defense and have talent, so there is some hope for improvement in the future, but right now it’s still a defense than can be exploited.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 195 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 25 yds rushing
Lee Evans: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Terrell Owens: 35 yds receiving
Derek Fine: 15 yds receiving,
Fred Jackson: 35 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Texans 31 Bills 17 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Cowboys (Marcoccio)

Matt Hasselbeck/Julius Jones/Justin Forsett
T.J. Houshmanzadeh/Nate Burleson/John Carlson (vs. DAL)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.8%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -7.1%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +17.3%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -5.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Hasselbeck is one of the more underrated NFL and fantasy QBs in the league. The guy has consistently produced and has won games for years and years. At 35 his time in the sun (better throw on a hat there Matty when you’re out in the sun) is coming to an end, as back and rib injuries have slowed him down the last two seasons, but he still has some game left. Houshmanzadeh hasn’t made quite the impact that many expected, in fact the forgotten Nate Burleson has outproduced him most weeks, but he’s still a solid target who uses his big body to shield defenders from getting good position on him. Second year TE John Carlson has not put up the numbers that he did during his rookie year thus far. That has mostly been the result of fewer targets due to the Hawks having healthy WRs this season and the fact that he has been held in to block more as the o-line has been plagued by injuries.

The Dallas defense ranked 5th in passing yards allowed last season (187.7 ypg), but are allowing 238.5 yards per game this season with 10 TDs. The Dallas defense amassed a league leading 59 sacks last year and features Marcus Spears and DeMarcus Ware, but after a slow start now have 14 sacks on the year in 2009 (with 4 coming last week against Matt Ryan). As mentioned Seattle has been beset with major injuries along its o-line, so Dallas should continue their recent trend of getting to the QB. Hasselbeck’s ribs and back may be particularly sore this Monday.

Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones finally gets his revenge this week as he faces the team that cast him aside at the height of his career. All faux melodramatics aside, Julius Jones is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL. His vision is poor and his speed and power combination is mediocre at best. I was pretty shocked when they did not address their RB situation this offseason (signing the toasty Edgerrin James at the last minute doesn’t count). Expect the position to be addressed next offseason either via the draft of free agency.

Dallas has been a middle of the road run defense this season, allowing 109.3 ypg, but has managed to keep opposing backs from scoring (only 3 rushing TDs allowed). Former Falcon Keith Brooking was all over the field last week against his old team, and it will be a great help to the Dallas D if he can keep up that intensity as the season continues.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 235 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
TJ Houshmanzadeh: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 65 yds receiving
John Carlson: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Julius Jones: 45 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Justin Forsett: 30 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Tashard Choice/Felix Jones
Roy Williams/Miles Austin/Jason Witten (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -10.2%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -3.2%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +11.9%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -32.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Miles Austin followed up his record breaking first NFL start against Kansas City with a similar effort against a better Falcon defense the next week. Austin has now amassed over 400 yards and has scored 4 TDs in his first two NFL starts. Wow. Miles is big and fast and should be just what the Cowboys need to replace Terrell Owens’ production going forward. Incidentally, my very good friend taught Miles in his Special Education class at Garfield HS in NJ. All of you Austin owners benefitting from his newfound success can thank my good buddy for developing him into the man he is today.

Not that you wouldn’t start Austin anyway after the last two weeks, but Seattle has been poor against the pass most weeks and are particularly bad when they are on the road. They have allowed 220.3 yards and more than a TD per game. Expect the Cowboys to attack downfield all game.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys had their full compliment of RBs back last week as Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice were all healthy enough to play. As expected it was a headache to fantasy footballers, made even worse by the Cowboys once again deciding against running the ball (22 planned runs to 35 planned pass attempts). Choice took a back seat last week as he’s done in the past when all 3 were healthy and likely cannot be relied upon for the rest of the season unless one of the other backs again miss time.

Led by rookie linebacker Aaron Curry (32 tackles), the Seahawks have played the run very well this season. They are allowing 99.3 ypg and only 5 TDs on the season. As implied above and last week, the Cowboys (sometimes foolishly) seem willing to abandon the run early and rely on Tony Romo to carry the team – this week that strategy may actually make some sense.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 305 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 25 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Miles Austin: 80 yds receiving
Jason Witten: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Tashard Choice: 65 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 20 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 55 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Prediction : Cowboys 24 Seahawks 14 ^ Top

Broncos @ Ravens (Mack)

Kyle Orton / Knowshon Moreno / Correll Buckhalter
Brandon Marshall / Eddie Royal / Tony Scheffler (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +10.8%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.1%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +11.7%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -10.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Raise your hand if you had Kyle Orton throwing for 9 TDs and 1 INT through the first six games of the season. Orton was one of the hottest and biggest surprises during the first half of last season before an ankle injury derailed his momentum, but few saw this kind of efficiency coming. Superior offensive talent surrounds him in Denver than what he had in Chicago, sure. But we’re talking about Kyle Orton here. Undoubtedly he was a late-round pick in most fantasy drafts, but he’s flirted with being a surefire starter so far. He’s thrown at least 1 TD in each game this year, including two scores each in the past three games.

The biggest surprise regarding Denver’s passing game has to be the reduced role of second year wide out Eddie Royal. A stellar rookie campaign in 2008 had many fantasy owners high on him heading into the year, but the offensive scheme of new head coach Josh McDaniels seems to not incorporate the quick-footed Royal. It appears the WR2 behind Brandon Marshall is a WRBC, as three receivers on the team have between 16 and 18 receptions. Surprisingly, the Baltimore Ravens have been vulnerable through the air in 2009. They’re ranked 19th and have been exposed so several QBs this year. With several top-tier QBs on bye this week, Orton is a nice fill-in who should provide you with decent numbers.

Running Game Thoughts: Although Denver’s backfield has become less cloudy than at the start of the season, it still remains a tough situation to predict. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter both get action in the ground game, both that limits the fantasy relevance of both. Moreno, however, is the primary ball carrier and leads the team in rushes. Both Moreno and Buckhalter are good receivers out of the backfield, so their fantasy production is supplemented by what they do as pass catchers.

If the Baltimore defense remains strong in a certain area, it is against the run. They rank 7th in the league and have only allowed 3 TDs on the ground this year. This despite theRavens giving up two 100-plus rushers in consecutive weeks after going more than 30 games without surrendering that kind of production to an opposing RB. I think the Broncos will attempt to do their damage through the air and not on the ground. Baltimore has been susceptible lately, but Denver doesn’t employ the kind of grind-it-out running style that the Ravens’ two previous opponents have—Cincinnati and Minnesota. Moreno and Buckhalter’s production will be modest in this game.

Projections:
Kyle Orton – 235 yards / 2 TD / 1 INT
Knowshon Moreno – 55 yards rushing / 35 yards rec.
Correll Buckhalter – 25 yards rushing / 20 yards rec.
Eddie Royal – 25 yards
Brandon Marshall – 90 yards / 1 TD
Tony Scheffler – 40 yards / 1 TD

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice / Willis McGahee
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap (vs. Denver)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -32.7%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -22.4%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -28.8%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -45.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco had one of his best games of his career last week on the road against a tough Minnesota defense, throwing for almost 400 yards and a couple of second half TDs. But as challenging as it was facing the Vikings, the stakes are raised this week as the league’s top-ranked defense comes to Baltimore. Denver has allowed a Ravens-like 11 points per game this season and have surrendered the second fewest passing TDs with three. That’s a big challenge for any quarterback, much less a youngster making his 22nd start in the NFL.

For the passing game to be productive, it’s going to be imperative that the WRs get off the press coverage that’s sure to be the staple of the Broncos attack. CB Champ Bailey has returned to form in 2009 after battling injuries last year and has played at a peak level. He will probably cover Derrick Mason and limit his production. Andre Goodman plays opposite Bailey and Bailey calls him one of the best CBs he’s played with. Mark Clayton will have his hands full as well. The passing game could rest on the shoulders of TE Todd Heap. He’s stayed healthy this year and has been a good play on most weeks. Like all of the Broncos’ opponents so far this year, the Ravens will find it a difficult task to mount any kind of offensive production through the air this week.

Running Game Thoughts: After scoring 5 TDs through the first three games of the season, Willis McGahee’s production has fallen off the table. He’s had 13 carries for 12 yards during the last three games and hasn’t scored a rushing TD. Those struggles have opened the door for the youngster Ray Rice, and he has not disappointed. He’s been a dynamo in the Ravens’ offensive attack, as his huge second half last week proves. Rice leads the team in rushing and his 33 receptions are seven more than anyone else on the team. His contribution to your fantasy team cannot be overlooked, and he’s turning himself into a weekly starter no matter the opponent.

As is the case with the passing game, facing Denver’s defense will be a tough go for Rice and the running game. The Broncos bring the 3rd-ranked run defense to town, a defense that’s only give up 5 TDs TOTAL for the season, including two on the ground. Rice’s rushing totals will be held in check, but as was the case last week, his importance in the passing game will help offset the limitations he will encounter on the ground. Rice is a good RB2 this week; just know that there’s a possibility that he can be held in check.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Ray Rice – 50 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Derrick Mason – 65 yards
Mark Clayton – 35 yards
Todd Heap – 40 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Denver 17, Baltimore 13 ^ Top

Browns @ Bears (Mack)

Derek Anderson / Jamal Lewis / Jerome Harrison
Mohamad Massaquoi / Josh Cribbs / Mike Furrey / Steve Heiden (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.9%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.9%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.9%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +18.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Even though JaMarcus Russell has been the league’s undisputed piñata so far this year as the worst QB, Derek Anderson is quietly staking his claim to that throne. After taking over for the equally ineffective Brady Quinn several weeks ago, Anderson has completed only 44 percent of his passes while throwing 2 TDs and 7 INTs. And certainly the organization didn’t do him or the team any favors by ousting Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow.

If Anderson is to do anything this year, perhaps this is the week. The Bears are still staggering from the haymaker that the Cincinnati Bengals landed last week. Chicago allowed Carson Palmer to have his best game in years, tossing 5 TDs against a bewildered secondary. One of two things will happen: either the Bears learn the error of their ways and tighten things up on defense, or the onslaught continues. My opinion is the former. Anderson is barely an NFL starting QB and his weapons are inexperienced, unproductive, or both. Mohamad Massaquoi, Josh Cribbs, Mike Furrey, Steve Heiden…if you’re relying on any of them as a starter this week, well, good luck. You’re going to need it.

Running Game Thoughts: Seriously, my eyes hurt watching Jamal Lewis run the football. His slow, methodical, pitty-pat running style just doesn’t do it for me. But maybe the reason why he’s slow and methodical is he’s trying to find running room behind an offensive line that hasn’t played up to its bloated reputation. Lewis has yet to score, has a pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry and has only 6 receptions all season. Translation: he’s useless as anything more than a bench-warmer on your fantasy squad. Jerome Harrison is really no better, although he did have a good game against Cincinnati earlier in the season. And he does lead the team in receptions with 18. So in a pinch, maybe, just maybe, Harrison could be a sneaky play this week. I just don’t want to rely on any Cleveland Brown at this point in the season. The Browns are who we KNOW they are, so steer clear of all players with the ugly orange helmets.

Projections:
Derek Anderson – 175 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Jamal Lewis – 50 yards
Jerome Harrison – 15 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Mohamad Massaquoi – 55 yards
Josh Cribbs – 30 yards / 1 TD
Mike Furrey – 20 yards
Steve Heiden – 15 yards

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Devin Hester / Johnny Knox / Earl Bennett / Greg Olsen (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +42.1%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +12.4%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -13.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The frustrating thing with Jay Cutler is when he’s good, he’s really good. But when he’s bad, he’s putrid. Thus was the case last week against Cincinnati. Sure he threw for 250 yards and completed 70 percent of his passes, but he forced throws and tossed 3 INTs. However, Cutler should rebound this week. The Browns have given up the most yards this season, and their 24-ranked pass defense is nothing special either. Cutler is a nice play this week; he typically performs well after a game in which he stunk up the joint.

The Bears have four players with at least 21 receptions, led by Devin Hester’s 28. The problem is they have no true game-breakers, so games like last week that got out of hand, Chicago is ill-equipped to mount a significant comeback. Hester is more a player that requires open space to be effective, and that normally doesn’t happen at the receiver position. Greg Olsen is starting to come along, and Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox are nice complementary players. If Cutler is to rebound this week, it stands to reason that his receivers will do the same. Consequently, I think Hester and Olsen will be the beneficiaries of Cutler’s performance.

Running Game Thoughts: One of the truly disappointing players in fantasy football this year is Matt Forte. Matt Forte, the guy some experts claimed during the preseason should be drafted #1 overall this year. They pointed at his multi-dimensional skill set, his receiving skills, his claim to the #1 RB spot on the Bears. Well, even though all of those things remain true, Forte has still struggled. I not smart enough to sit here and spout about why he hasn’t played to the level that he played last season. All I know is I’ve given it the ol’ eyeball test, and so far Forte has failed miserably.

Forte does, however, seem to play better against inferior defenses. His only good game this year came against the laughable Detroit Lions defense. Cleveland’s defense is as porous as Detroit’s, so Forte could see an uptick in his production. If nothing else, he’s due. His only score this season came in that Detroit game; look for him to add his second score of 2009 this week—either on the ground or through the air.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 235 yards / 2 TDs
Matt Forte – 95 yards / 1 TD / 35 yards rec.
Devin Hester – 90 yards / 1 TD
Johnny Knox – 35 yards
Earl Bennett – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 40 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Chicago 27, Cleveland 13 ^ Top

Rams @ Lions (Mack)

Marc Bulger / Steven Jackson
Donnie Avery / Keenan Burton / Randy McMichael (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +42.1%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +17.8%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +31.4%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +48.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The good news for Marc Bulger owners is he’s only thrown 3 INTs in six games this year. The bad news is he’s only thrown 3 TDs in the same time span. This Rams offense is one of the most horrid displays of NFL football the league has seen. Turnovers, mental errors, missed assignments, you name it, they do it. The offensive line struggles and the receivers are still works in progress. It’s a bad combination all around.

However, something’s going to give this week. The inept Rams offense goes against the inept Lions defense. The 32nd ranked offense against the 31st ranked defense—the resistible force against the movable object (rim shot). This contest will prove the weak link in the league. St. Louis has no consistent playmakers on the outside, and TE Randy McMichael has seen more productive days. This one will be a yawner. I’ll make this quick and easy for you: don’t start Bulger or any of his receivers this week (or any week for that matter—at least until further notice).

Running Game Thoughts: One of the few things I was right about heading into the season was how I thought Steven Jackson would struggle with the lack of talent around him. While he’s not been a total disaster, he’s still yet to find the end zone in 2009. But even with the questionable talent elsewhere on offense, Jackson still averages 90 rushing a game and is tied for the team lead in receptions with 21. Plus, he’s the league’s third leading rusher with 635 yards. Those numbers speak volumes as to the kind of talent Jackson is. It’s a shame he’s being wasted in the fantasy landfill known as the St. Louis Rams.

Detroit’s run defense has done quite well this year, all things considered. They held in check RBs such as Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis and Rashard Mendenhall. The one thing that all three have in common is they all traveled to Ford Field. The Lions play well at home, so don’t be so fast in counting Jackson’s TDs just yet. While Jackson will put up numbers, don’t expect a ridiculously crazy day from him.

Projections:
Marc Bulger – 180 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Steven Jackson – 60 yards / 1 TD / 30 yards rec.
Donnie Avery – 65 yards
Keenan Burton – 45 yards
Randy McMichael – 25 yards

Matt Stafford / Kevin Smith
Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt / Calvin Johnson / Brandon Pettigrew (vs. St. Louis)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +14.8%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +29.6%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.6%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +37.9%

Passing Game Thoughts – Matt Stafford appears to be on the mend from a knee injury suffered in week 4 against the Bears. He appeared to be getting into a comfort zone before the injury, and now he’s back at practice and looks to start, although head coach Jim Schwartz likes to keep injury information under wraps. Stafford could have a good game against the Rams; they’ve allowed 11 TD passes this year, but with Calvin Johnson a 50-50 proposition to play, Stafford’s chances of continuing his upswing will be that much more daunting.

If Calvin Johnson doesn’t play or is limited, Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt will pick up the slack. Neither should be counted on for anything other than pedestrian production. Rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew is still learning the pro game, so he’s a fantasy afterthought. As is the case with the Rams, something’s going to give on this side of the ball too. Detroit’s 23rd ranked offense goes against the Rams’ 30th ranked defense. This game should be an interesting watch—maybe for all the wrong reasons.

Running Game Thoughts – Kevin Smith is as unexciting as any RB in the league. Yet when you look at the stat sheet at the end of games, Smith seems to always hammer out respectable numbers. This week could be his best of the year though. With Calvin Johnson a huge question mark, Smith could easily lead the team in receiving. He’s had a tough go at it lately, going against Green Bay and Pittsburgh’s defense. But St. Louis has the league’s 27th ranked run defense and they have given up the second-most rushing TDs this year (11).

I really don’t know how this game is going to play out. Both teams’ anemic offenses could surface and we could have ourselves a low-scoring affair, or the defenses could be out to lunch and we find ourselves enjoying a barn-burner. Either way, Smith will play a key role in whatever the Lions choose to do on offense. For that reason, he’s a good RB2 this week.

Projections:
Matt Stafford – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Kevin Smith – 80 yards / 2 TDs / 40 yards rec
Bryant Johnson – 65 yards / 1 TD
Dennis Northcutt – 55 yards
Brandon Pettigrew – 35 yards

Prediction: Detroit 24, St. Louis 17 ^ Top

Vikings @ Packers (Mack)

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor
Sidney Rice / Percy Harvin / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -8.1%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -33.4%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.3%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -5.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Well, here we are. The moment of truth. The game fans, media and Brett Favre himself have been waiting for. Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time wearing an opposing jersey. This is the contest that Favre has been prepping for since the Green Bay suits decided the aging QB was better off playing elsewhere. Favre is enjoying the best start through seven games in his career. He’s thrown for at least 231 yards in each of the last five games, including 9 TDs and3 INTs.

His return to Green Bay won’t be easy. The Packers field the league’s 4th ranked pass defense—an opportunistic defense that has 11 INTs. Sidney Rice has been a beast the last two weeks, totaling 16 receptions for 312 yards. He hasn’t scored much (only 2 TDs on the year), but with the number of targets he’s getting from Favre, his TDs will come. Start him without hesitation. Rookie Percy Harvin remains a threat both as a receiver and as a runner on end-arounds, and TE Visanthe Shiancoe’s 5 TDs are more than double anyone else’s on the team. Shiancoe is shaping up to be a Pro Bowler and should be in your line-up.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson has had the worst 7-game start to a season from a yardage standpoint of his brief NFL career. He only has two games of more than 100 yards, but his TD totals are higher through seven games than at any point in his career. Just ask Thomas Jones what Favre’s presense does to a RB’s TD totals. Green Bay has a tough defense, and they held AP in check in week 4. In fact, his 55-rushing-yards-on-25-carries game against the Packers was his worst rushing performance since week 5 last season when he ran for 32 yards on 21 carries.

The Vikings may make a concerted effort to get Peterson involved early. Favre’s emotions are sure to be running sky high, and perhaps the best way for him to relax will be to incorporate the running game early on. Chester Taylor remains nothing more than an occasional replacement for Peterson in the running game, but Taylor’s presense in the passing game can’t be ignored. He’s a good option in PPR leagues, especially if you’re hurting at RB due to the bye week.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 225 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Adrian Peterson – 95 yards / 1 TD
Chester Taylor – 20 yards rushing / 35 yards rec.
Sidney Rice – 90 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 35 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 55 yards / 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / Jermichael Finley / Donald Lee (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.6%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -23.0%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.8%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +57.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m sure to the Packers, last week’s game against the Cleveland Browns felt like an exhibition. Green Bay toyed with the Brownies all afternoon and barely broke a sweat. It was just the kind of tune-up game they needed heading into this huge NFC North division showdown. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire. Last week’s 246 passing yards were actually his lowest output since week 1. In fact, he’s averaged 329 yards and 2 TDs over his last three games. That’s awesome production and the kind of production that wins games for fantasy owners.

Can someone tell Greg Jennings that the season has started? Jennings has been a mild disappointment so far. A player no doubt chosen as a #1 WR in fantasy with only one TD through six games has to be a tough pill to swallow. He’s become a low-end #2. Donald Driver, however, has played more like we expected Jennings to play. He’s a must-start every week. Before last week’s one-catch performance, Jermichael Finley actually played well. He had totaled 15 catches in the three previous games; expect that kind of production to resurface this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Well what do you know, there’s been a Ryan Grant sighting. Last week’s game against Cleveland was his first 100-plus yard performance since 2008’s season finale. Grant was the primary beneficiary to the lopsided affair last week, as his 27 carries were the most since week 7 last year. There’s a very good chance he won’t get that many carries this week or be that productive. The Vikings haven’t been the run-stopping unit like they were the past several years, but their 10-ranked run defense is still not too shabby. I think this game is gearing up to be a high-scoring contest, in which case Grant’s role and relevance will be diminished substantially. You could certainly do worse than Grant as a #2, but if you have to start him, don’t expect anywhere near last week’s totals.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 255 yards / 2 TDs
Ryan Grant – 55 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 90 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 75 yards
Jermichael Finley – 50 yards / 1 TD
Donald Lee – 25 yards

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Minnesota 24 ^ Top

Raiders @ Chargers (Eakin)

JaMarcus Russell/Darius Heyward-Bey/Louis Murphy/Zach Miller
Justin Fargas/Michael Bush (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -12.3%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +25.7%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -22.4%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +21.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: After being benched for three first half turnovers in week 7, QB JaMarcus Russell is slated to remain the Raiders starter, but serves as NFL poster boy for how missing on a first round QB in the draft can set a franchise back for years. They have too much money in him to ride the bench and invest in yet another first rounder to replace him. Russell continues to rely the rookie WR tandem of Darius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy for targets since veteran Chaz Schilens remains unable to get past his foot injury. Betting on talented TE Zach Miller as a starting fantasy TE is not for the faint of heart but could have a big game facing one of the leagues poorest defenses at defending opposing TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: The best way to attack the Chargers defense is on the ground. The Raiders best attack is on the ground. A match made in heaven as long as the Raiders play to their strength, which they seem to abandon from time to time. Justin Fargas has been the lead back since his return and DMac’s injury. Fargas runs hard between the tackles where the Chargers have been vulnerable without NT Jamal Williams but the Chargers have quietly held the Broncos and Chiefs ground games for two weeks since their bye. If the Raiders show up to play (which is anyone’s guess), and aren’t down big by half, Fargas is a solid RB2 play.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 125 yds
Darius Heyward-Bey: 25
Louis Murphy: 45
Zach Miller: 70 yd
Justin Fargas: 70 yds rushing/20 yds rec/1 TD
Michael Bush: 30 yds rushing

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -5.3%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +49.7%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -8.8%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -33.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Phillip’s River of continues to flow. His only obstacle thus far is Chris Chambers’s hands. Chambers had another bad week and some big drops but Vincent Jackson washed those concerns away with two fifty-plus yard pass plays on the defenseless Chief secondary. Jackson will have a tougher assignment in Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha. With Jackson’s tough match-up and Chamber’s struggles, TE Antonio Gates and RB Darren Sproles could be this week’s big playmakers to lean on.

The Raiders area tough match-up for the Chargers because they defend well against the two strengths of San Diego’s offense. Oakland is good at defending opposing teams top WR with Asomugha and opposing TEs (5th TE FPTs allowed) with speedy LB Thomas Howard. Despite matching up well, if their front seven doesn’t get pressure, River’s will eventually have his way.

Running Game Thoughts: RB LaDainian Tomlinson had eight chances for a breakout performance against the Chiefs, but failed to convert any his goal line chances into TDs. Between the twenties, Tomlinson had a good but not great day against a poor run defense. In his defense, the Charger’s play calling in the Red zone lacked any creativity whatsoever. With goal line unbalanced formation everyone on the field, in the stands, and watching on TV knew where Tomlinson was heading pre-snap. Why not spread the defense out, try a swing pass, pitch it to the outside, anything but continue ramming him at the heart of the defense with an overmatched O-line? Tomlinson will be solid again and get his TD, finally. Start him with confidence.

Projections:
Phillip Rivers: 250 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 70 yds/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 40 yds
Antonio Gates: 70 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 80 yds/25 yds rec/1 TD
Darren Sproles: 20 yds/40 rec yds

Prediction: Chargers 27 Raiders 10 ^ Top

Panthers @ Cardinals (Eakin)

Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad/Dante Rosario
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +9.6%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -21.4%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +19.2%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +12.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Delhomme gets the start despite leading the league in turnovers and a growing clambering for his removal. Interesting to note, it was his 2008 playoff game facing these very Cardinals, in which he was picked five times, which started his current 7-game stretch of infamy. Could this week bring about a full circle of redemption? The Cardinals are easier to attack through the air. They may be without top cover CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who left Sunday’s game at the Giants with a ankle injury and is questionable to play. In addition, WR Steve Smith was finally able to “become an asset” for Carolina with his 6-for-99 performance despite the loss last week in Buffalo.

Both Muhsin Muhammad and Dante Rosario are questionable to play and likely to be game-time decisions. Keep an eye on the inactive lists Sunday morning. WR Dwayne Jarrett and TE Jeff King would be their replacements if they do not play.

Running Game Thoughts: The Panthers need to run to win but abandoned it in Buffalo perhaps to prove all the experts wrong who thought they would run all over the porous Buffalo D. The result was another Delhomme turnover fest and loss. Instead of the league’s worst ranked run defense, they face the highest in Arizona. The Cardinal defense is playing much more aggressive than last year. The blitz more and load the box with S Adrian Wilson for run support. The Cardinal front is getting good contribution from young versatile D-linemen Alan Branch and Calais Campbell while being led by Pro Bowl caliber DE Darnell Docket. Docket is a beast that creates penetration and keeps blockers off leading tackler LB Karlos Dansby. The Panther’s version of thunder and lightning, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, could struggle to find openings.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 240 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Steve Smith: 90 yds/1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 35 yds
Dante Rosario: 40 yds
DeAngelo Williams: 60 yds/25 rec
Jonathan Stewart: 40 yds/1 TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells (vs. CAR)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -15.2%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +8.1%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -35.1%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -17.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cardinals are clicking, coming of one of the franchises biggest regular season wins, in which they overcame a terrible record traveling east for rode games and the respected NY Giants. If they can avoid the natural emotional letdown, they should have their way at home against an average Carolina pass defense. Anquan Boldin battled a noticeable limp all day in NY and still managed to contribute a 44-yard reception, the longest play by a starting WR for Arizona this year. Boldin won’t be at 100 percent for this game either but should continue to contribute. Fitzgerald remains the focal point, leading the team in targets and red zone looks but the Cardinals still need to do better job challenging defenses vertically with him. They are not taking advantage of his ability to play the ball in the air. For this to happen, T Mike Gandy will need to keep Julius Peppers out of Warner’s grill. Pepper’s remains one of the more talented athletes at DE despite underwhelming numbers on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Beanie Wells had his best day as a pro in NY with 14 4 yards and a TD. A consistent power run game would make the Arizona offensive arsenal seemingly indefensible. Wells may have turned the corner towards the starting role despite HC Whisenhunt claims that Hightower is still the starter. Regardless of who starts, Wells should get every opportunity to build on his progress and at least take over duties on first and second down. Hightower is better suited in passing downs as a more reliable blocker and check down option going forward. The Panthers are a suitable proving ground for Wells having struggled to stop the run since losing their top two DTs earlier in the year.

Prediction:
Kurt Warner: 265 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 75 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 40 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 65 yds
Chris Wells: 85 yds rushing/1 TD
Tim Hightower: 30 yds/40 rec yds

Prediction: Arizona 31 Carolina 20 ^ Top

49ers @ Colts (Kilroy)

Alex Smith / Frank Gore
Isaac Bruce / Michael Crabtree / Josh Morgan / Vernon Davis (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -31.0%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -10.3%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -20.3%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -55.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Shaun Hill was benched last week and watched Alex Smith throw three second-half touchdowns to tight end Vernon Davis. That was enough for Mike Singletary to name Smith the starter. Unfortunately, the Colts have been stingy against QBs this season allowing a grand total of two (2) passing touchdowns… TWO! Only Kurt Warner managed a decent fantasy day throwing for 332 yds and 1 TD against Indianapolis in Week 3. Michael Crabtree made his debut last week and played much of the game catching 5 passes for 56 yards. He may be on the field a lot this week as well, but you’d be wise to look for other WR and QB options, as this contest could get ugly fairly quickly.

Running Game Thoughts: Gore was a fantasy afterthought last week against Houston rushing for 32 yards on 13 carries as the 49ers attempted to play catch-up. Gore could find himself in a similar situation this week against the high-powered Colts team making him a marginal play for fantasy owners in Week 8. The Colts have allowed only three (3) rushing touchdowns this season and should get an added boost with the return of Safety Bob Sanders. Meanwhile, the 49ers lost their right OT Tony Pahsos to a broken shoulder blade last week – all the more reason to consider Gore a risky play.

Projections:
Alex Smith – 210 yards passing / 10 yards rushing / 1 TD
Frank Gore – 70 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 30 yards receiving
Isaac Bruce – 50 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Michael Crabtree – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Josh Morgan – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
Vernon Davis – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. San Francisco)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.7%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.7%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.1%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -19.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Colts are looking for their 16th-straight regular season win this week and leading the charge is none other than Peyton Manning. He’s been nothing short of spectacular this season with five 300-yd games and second only to Drew Brees in FPts/G. The only cause for concern here is Reggie Wayne, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a groin injury. There’s a chance he will play but if he doesn’t, expect TE Dallas Clark to be a focal point for Manning and the tandem of Austin Collie / Pierre Garcon to see increased targets.

Running Game Thoughts: The rushing attack may also be down a key component as Rookie Donald Brown has missed practice time this week with a bum shoulder. He’s expected to be a gametime decision. If Brown sits, Joseph Addai would likely carry the load against a San Francisco defense that ranks in the middle of the pack against the run. Addai has scored a touchdown in three straight games and the Colts have scored a rushing TD in all but one of their games in 2009.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 280 yards passing / 2 TDs
Joseph Addai – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Donald Brown – 10 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 10 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD
Pierre Garcon – 60 yards receiving / 0 TD
Austin Collie – 60 yards receiving / 1 TDs
Dallas Clark – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Indianapolis 30, San Francisco 13 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Titans (Kilroy)

David Garrard / Maurice Jones-Drew
Torry Holt / Mike Sims-Walker / Marcedes Lewis (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +70.3%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.7%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +90.6%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +30.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard owners, here’s your perfect scenario to plug the JAX QB into your lineup and feel confident about his opportunity to post better-than-average numbers against a Tennessee team that can’t wait for the 2009 season to end. The Titans have allowed five out of the six QBs they’ve faced to throw for over 300 yards… including Garrard who lit up Tennessee for 323 yards, 3 TDs, and 38 yds rushing in Week 4. Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt are both decent plays this week with the nod going to Walker who has established himself as Jacksonville’s primary receiving threat. He could easily go over 100 yards in this one.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew beat up on the Rams defense in his last game to the tune of 133 yards and 3 scores. He’s also caught 10 passes in his last two games, reminding us all that he’s an all-round back and one the few fantasy RBs not in a RBBC situation. Rashad Jennings will likely see more action as the season continues but this season is about Jones-Drew and fantasy owners will reap the rewards. Tennessee has been surprisingly good against the run, allowing only Laurence Maroney to crack the century mark, but keep in mind the Titans haven’ stopped anybody through the air so teams haven’t needed to run the ball against them. No running back facing Tennessee has more than 17 attempts so while Jones-Drew is too good to keep on your bench, don’t expect scintillating numbers unless the game is close.

Projections:
David Garrard – 285 yards passing / 2 TD / 10 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD / 50 yards receiving
Torry Holt – 80 yards receiving / 1 TDs
Mike Sims-Walker – 100 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD

Vince Young / Chris Johnson / LenDale White
Nate Washington / Justin Gage / Kenny Britt / Bo Scaife (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +22.0%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.5%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +46.1%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -30.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young gets the call at QB after owner Bud Adams let the world know his preference to see Young on the field this week. Makes it an easy decision for Jeff Fisher, ehh? Collins is the least of Tennessee’s problems but with the season already lost, there’s no reason not to give Young another shot at the starting QB job. This may be Young's last chance to salvage his career in Tennessee. He’ll run up against a Jacksonville defense that recently gave up 4 passing TDs to Matt Hasselbeck and 3 to Matt Schaub. Heck, even Kerry Collins tossed it around for 284 yards against the Jaguars back in Week 4 so it could be worse. Still, you have to think it might take a while for Young to get his groove back, if that’s even possible. He’ll likely do more damage with his feet than with his arm in this one…

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson averaged 7.5 yards per carry against New England in Week 6 and remains a legitimate big-play threat for Tennessee but seems to have disappeared from the Titans passing game since his 9-catch, 87-yd performance in Week 2. . He totaled 83 yards on 16 carries against Jacksonville in Week 4. LenDale White has been a major disappointment thus far and only carried the ball 10+ times in one game this season. His high-water mark is 51 yards and has only 1 touchdown for his efforts. Johnson is startable for his ability to score anytime he touches the ball, but keep White on your bench until he proves his worth.

Projections:
Vince Young – 180 yards passing / 40 yards rushing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 80 yards rushing / 0 TD / 20 yards receiving
LenDale White – 20 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Nate Washington – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Justin Gage – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Kenny Britt – 60 yards receiving / 1 TDs
Bo Scaife – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Jacksonville 27, Tennessee 13 ^ Top

Falcons @ Saints (Kilroy)

Matt Ryan / Michael Turner
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -17.4%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.1%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -49.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan is currently the 12th ranked fantasy QB - just a hair under 20 FPts per game. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in five out of his six games and while the Saints have performed well against QBs this season, I expect Ryan and the passing game to have some success using their all-pro targets, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. The Saints-D have been picking on lesser QB talent this season (DET, BUF, MIA, NYJ) making their FF Pts Allowed % somewhat of an anomaly. Look for Ryan to throw for a couple scores but the Falcons to come up just short on the scoreboard.

Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons have largely struggled to run the ball the season and will need to correct that issue if they have any hope of beating the Saints this week. Filling in for the injured Jerious Norwood, Jason Snelling chipped in 68 yards on 7 carries against Dallas last week while Turner only managed 50 yards on 18 carries. Despite their struggles, Michael Turner has been a decent fantasy back scoring at least one touchdown in all but one game this season. His yardage is lacking a bit however and the Saints have been stingy against the run. Expect the status quo here, with Turner to crack the endzone but coming up short of the 100-yd mark.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 260 yards passing / 2 TDs
Michael Turner – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Roddy White – 100 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey (vs. Falcons)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +9.0%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.6%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.1%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +39.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints quickly fell behind the Dolphins last week by 21 points and Drew Brees and company turned it up in the second half coming away with a 46-34 victory. Leading the way was Drew Brees who fell two yards short of the 300-yd mark, threw 3 INTs, but made his fantasy owners happy by scoring twice on the ground… just another ho-hum day for the top fantasy QB in the league. The Falcons have allowed 611 yards and 5 TDs through the air over the last two weeks to Jay Cutler and Tony Romo so expect Brees to post solid numbers, spreading the ball around to a variety of receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Most people think of New Orleans as a passing team, and for good reason but the Saints are sporting the #3 rushing offense in the league. Unfortunately for fantasy owners the love is spread between three different backs as Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush are all splitting time in the backfield. It’s a decent a decent bet that one of these guys will have a solid fantasy day but good luck at making the right choice. Mike Bell is getting goaline work and had more carries (12) than any Saints RB last week but that could easily change if Pierre Thomas flashes a hot hand early. Reggie Bush appears to be the riskiest fantasy-play of the group, although he’s scored the last two weeks. Uggh… what a mess for fantasy owners.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 300 yards passing / 3 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 60 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Mike Bell – 30 yards rushing / 1 TD
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Marques Colston – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Lance Moore – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 23 ^ Top