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Eli Mack, Sal Marcoccio, Chris Eakin, Joe Kilroy


Inside The Matchup: Wk 6
10/16/09

BUF @ NYJ | KC @ WAS | TEN @ NE | HOU @ CIN

DET @ GB | BAL @ MIN | CLE @ PIT | NYG @ NO

CAR @ TB | STL @ JAX | CHI @ ATL | PHI @ OAK

ARI @ SEA | DEN @ SD
 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Kilroy 13 4 76.5
2 Marcoccio 15 5 75.0
3 Eakin 16 6 70.0
4 Mack 13 6 68.4

Bills @ Jets (Marcoccio)

Trent Edwards/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Shawn Nelson (vs. NYJ
)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -32.2%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.6%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -29.4%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -25.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: After a promising start to the season, Trent Edwards had his third poor effort in the last three weeks. He completed 16 of 31 passes and threw an interception without a TD against a bad Cleveland defense. As was also the case in Week 4, his high priced WRs, Owens and Evans, were afterthoughts - half of his completions went to the two RBs. A combination of poor protection by his o-line, poor play calling by the coaching staff and lack of trust in his less than stellar arm strength has made Edwards one of the league’s worst fantasy QBs, after many thought he turned the corner in 2008. Rumors are swirling that the team may look to move Owens’ ill-advised contract before the NFL trade deadline and why not? The Bills are going nowhere and don’t really use Owens anyway, so they may as well get something now before he walks this offseason.

After keeping Matt Shaub, Tom Brady, Kerry Collins and Drew Brees out of the endzone during the first four weeks, the Jets allowed second year QB Chad Henne to throw two scores against them, including a deep bomb to Ted Ginn despite having Darrellle Revis “covering” him at the time. The return of LB/DE Calvin Pace from a 4 week suspension did not help the Jet sack totals as they did not get to Henne at all. Expect an angry Jets defense to take out their frustration on tackle dummy Trent Edwards and his paper thin offensive line.

Running Game Thoughts: It wasn’t like Buffalo didn’t try to run on the Browns’ bottom ranked run defense last week, they just weren’t very effective. Marshawn Lynch gained 69 yards on 17 carries (4.0 ypc) and Fred Jackson gained 30 yards on 13 carries (2.3 ypc). The Bills o-line is young so perhaps it will improve, but right now it is arguably the worst o-line in the league. No deep passing game + very poor o-line = bad situation for a RB. Stay away if you can.

The Jets allowed the Dolphins’ Wild Cat offense to run wild (cat) on them. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 142 yards on the ground. Brown found the endzone twice while Williams also chipped in with 70 yards receiving. The Jets’ front 7 were dominated for the first time this season, courtesy of the powerful Miami o-line. It should be a different story this week as the Buffalo o-line does not have the same pedigree as the Dolphins’ line does. Kris Jenkins should be able to wreak havoc on the interior line going up against youngsters Andy Levitr, Geoff Hangartner and Eric Wood. Marshawn Lynch may be able to tough out some yards as he has a similar skill set to Ronnie Brown, but without the same support as Brown don’t expect much.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Lee Evans: 60 yds receiving
Terrell Owens: 25 yds receiving
Shawn Nelson: 15 yds receiving, 1 TD

Fred Jackson: 35 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 75 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Mark Sanchez/ Thomas Jones/Leon Washington
Braylon Edwards/David Clowney/Dustin Keller (vs. BUF)


BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -18.3%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +40.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -35.4%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +35.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite spending less than a week as a Jet, Braylon Edwards made his presence felt on Monday Night. He caught Sanchez’ only TD pass on the night and nearly scored another on a long acrobatic sideline catch, but was ruled out at the 1 yard line. Mark Sanchez bounced back from a terrible day in New Orleans and looked sharp in Miami. For the first time all season, the coaching staff allowed him to go deep, in large part due to the fact that Braylon Edwards and David Clowney spent most of the night at wide-out (because Cotchery was suffering from a hamstring injury). The pair are known for their deep routes. Cotchery is likely to sit this week as he re-aggravated his hamstring injury against the Dolphins. The addition of Edwards should open up the field for Jerricho Cotchery (when he gets healthier) and Dustin Keller (who was mostly invisible on Monday) once he gets further ingrained into the offense.

Buffalo’s passing defense was allowing 226.5 yards per games and 6 TDs through the air the first four weeks, before holding Browns’ QB Derek Anderson to under 30 yards passing on only 2 completions (out of 17 attempts). Of course we fantasy owners have to figure out what happened and, like the old chicken/egg dilemma, ask ourselves: was Anderson so poor last week because he faced an improved Bills’ defense or was the Bills’ defense effective because Anderson was so poor? Based on the first four weeks, it would be a safe guess to say it was the latter. The Bills’ secondary, minus three starters, is not scaring most passing attacks.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jets attempted to counter Miami’s “Wild Cat” with their “Seminole” offense where Leon Washington took the direct snaps. It was not nearly as effective. Washington did look good on his “normal” runs though and Thomas Jones ran more effectively than he has all season - and found the endzone twice on short runs. Rookie Shonn Greene was used very sparingly but is expected to be worked in as the season progresses, but his real fantasy impact will not come until 2010. With Edwards now in town, running lanes should start to open more frequently.

The Bills run defense is once again near the bottom of the league. They allow 120.4 ypg and have given up 7 rushing TDs on the season. Jamal Lewis (117 yards ) who was left for dead by many fantasy owners and football pundits scorched the Bills in Week 5, as did Pierre Thomas and Ronnie Brown in the two prior weeks. The Jets will be looking to keep their running game momentum going as ideally they’d prefer to keep the game out of their rookie QB’s hands as much as possible. This week’s opponent gives them the perfect opportunity to do so, as Buffalo has a bad run defense and a poor offense that should not put up many points on the Meadowlands’ scoreboard.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 220 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 35 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 45 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Leon Washington: 60 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving (Kick Return TD)

Prediction: Jets 27 Bills 10 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Redskins (Marcoccio)

Matt Cassel/ Larry Johnson/Jamaal Charles
Dwayne Bowe/Bobby Wade/Sean Ryan (vs. WAS)


WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -21.8%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -18.9%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -15.3%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -28.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Cassell who started the season off slowly while dealing with a knee injury is starting to show the fans that perhaps Scot Pioli knew what he was doing when he dealt a second round pick for the former Patriot and USC Trojan backup QB. Cassell is a smart and accurate QB in the mold of Chad Pennington, but with a stronger arm. That arm doesn’t necessarily translate into deep passes though as he has yet to show much accuracy on his deep passes, limiting his effectiveness outside of a dink and dunk type of attack. Fortunately for the Chiefs they have one of the better “run after the catch” WRs in the game in Dwayne Bowe who has now caught two TD passes from his new QB. Journeyman Bobby Wade has been a decent pickup for the Chiefs as he’s a fine route runner with dependable hands. For the 11th time in his career LB Mike Vrabel (who came over from NE with Cassell) caught a TD pass. Cassell has shown an affinity for using his TEs in the redzone, making unheralded Sean Ryan a decent bye week filler in the fantasy football world.

Washington’s pass defense is currently ranked 5th in the NFL – as the unit has allowed only 138.8 ypg and 4 TDs, so Cassell will face a tough task this week. Despite landing prized free-agent Albert Haynesworth, the Redskins still can’t generate much pressure on opposing passers (only 7 sacks on the season). The less than stellar KC o-line may help pad those totals a little after Sunday, though. The Skins have talented CBs in Carlos Rodgers and Fred Smoot who should be able to handle most opposing WR tandems in single coverage, for at least a couple of plays per game, so it’s strange that they have not incorporated more blitz packages into their game plans.

Running Game Thoughts: Larry Johnson is once again in the process of disappointing fantasy owners. He’s only gained 226 yards and hasn’t scored a TD in his first 5 games. Exciting second year player Jamaal Charles would seem to be a much better fit for the Todd Haley offense but the Chiefs seem like they will be letting LJ plod his way down the field (at 2.4 ypc) for the foreseeable future. It’s time to stick the proverbial fork in the back of Johnson, if you can somehow find some one that still has visions of his 2005-2006 season stuck in their memory, pawn him off for whatever you can get.

Washington is not as effective against the run as they were last season, but are still better than average (allowing 102.4 ypg). They have only allowed 1 rushing TD though making them a tough matchup for your fantasy RB. Remarkably Washington (2-3) has faced a winless team each week that they have played so far this season – allowing 3 of those teams (New York Giants, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers) to get their first win (of course the New York Giants were 0-0 at the time so that shouldn’t really count). They will not allow that to happen this week as their defense should be able to keep the game close enough for their offense to pull the game out.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 205 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Dwayne Bowe: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 40 yds receiving
Sean Ryan: 25 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 25 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Larry Johnson: 50 yds rushing

Jason Campbell/ Clinton Portis
Santana Moss/Malcolm Kelly/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley (vs. KC)


KC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +26.1%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.0%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +46.7%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +8.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell, true to career form, has had a very up and down season. He had his best statistical game of the season in Week 3 (340-2-1), but still couldn’t lead his team to a win over a Detroit team that had lost 19 straight games. Overall he has thrown for 1,108 yards, 6 TDs and 5 Ints. through five weeks. There have been rumors that Brady Quinn could be on his way to Washington. Whether that rumor pans out or not, the writing seems to be on the wall that Campbell’s time in Washington will come to an end soon. Santana Moss, like Campbell, has been up and down as well, but that has been his M.O. throughout his career – and Washington has struggled to find another WR that could take some pressure off of Moss. The Redskins drafted two WRs and a TE in the second round of last season’s draft, and has seen minimal production from those three players: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis. No wonder they always seem so eager to trade away their draft picks.

The Chiefs pass defense hasn’t been terrible so far (204 ypg and 8 TDs allowed), but they do not have enough depth in the secondary to deal with the league’s better passing offenses. Fortunately for them the Skins do not qualify as a “better” passing offense. Washington, however, does have some speed at wide-out and the speedy Miles Austin, ate the Chiefs alive last week gaining 250 yards on the day.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis scored 2 TDs last week, one on the ground and one on a reception, but otherwise continued to struggle, gaining only 57 yards on 19 carries (3 ypc) against one of the league’s worst run defenses, Carolina. Portis has had a ridiculously soft run schedule outside of Week 1 in New York: St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina and now Kansas City – but hasn’t done much with the gift his owners were handed. He’s only gained 338 yards rushing (67 yards per game) on 3.7 yards per carry. In his defense his o-line has been banged up, but he just doesn’t look the same and appears sluggish. As most are aware he has had an inordinate amount of carries during his career, and perhaps the end is drawing near.

The Chiefs have allowed only 102.8 yards per game and 5 TDs on the ground during five weeks of the season. They have shown improvement as the season has wore on and have got some decent production from aging veterans Mike Vrabel and safety Mike Brown, who were brought aboard to teach youngsters like Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey how to be successful at the next level.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 230 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 10 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Malcolm Kelly: 25 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 50 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Clinton Portis: 75 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Redskins 17 Chiefs 14 ^ Top

Titans @ Patriots (Marcoccio)

Kerry Collins/ LenDale White/Chris Johnson
Justin Gage/Nate Washington/Kenny Britt/Bo Scaife (vs. NE)


NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.0%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.8%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.3%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans have relied on their passing game more than they would have liked through five winless weeks. Kerry Collins has been adequate, but one has to think that another Titans loss will put him on the bench. Jeff Fischer and his staff need to take a look at Vince Young to see if he is still “the future” of this organization. After all he did take this team to the playoffs and showed some flashes early in his career. The Titans have a nice trio of WRs in Justin Gage, Nate Washington and rookie Kenny Britt. Britt in particular looks the part of being a future star in this league. He hasn’t mastered running effective pass patterns yet, but has a great size and speed combination and fights hard for the ball. Bo Scaife has been solid when healthy, but expect rookie TE Jared Cook to start getting some time and don’t be shocked if he looks really good when he gets it. Next season we may some new exciting skill players in more prominent roles once the Titans clear house at the end of a disaster of a season.

Say what you want about Billy Belicheck, but the guy has been a master at turning other people’s trash into treasure. Once again he took a couple of other team’s disappointing castoffs (Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden) and turned them into a rather formidable CB duo. The Pats are the 7th ranked pass defense, allowing only 153.8 ypg and 5 TDs (after allowing the second most passing TDs in the league last season). The Richard Seymour trade has hurt their pass rush a little, but once they get a little healthier at linebacker, expect a few more blitzes to help make up the difference.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson has been the victim of the unexpected collapse by the Titans’ defense. His carries are limited by the fact that the Titans have fallen behind quickly and despite his diminutive size and quickness he’s not used in the passing game as much as one would expect. Outside of his game for the ages in Week 2, where he rushed for 197 yards and two scores while also totaling 87 yards and a score via the pass, he’s been rather average at best for fantasy owners. Hurt even more by the previously mentioned defense is Lendale White who is an afterthought in the offense once the Titans fall behind because he cannot really break off big runs and is not a pass catcher. The Titans 1-2 punch is amongst the best in the league from a talent perspective and they run behind a superior o-line but the results have just not been there. Look for them to try and establish the run early and often in Week 6 in order to try and protect their pass defense from Tom Brady and his boys.

The Patriots have played the run very well despite losing many impact players to offseason migrations and to in-season injuries. So far this season they are allowing only 76.2 yards per game and have only allowed Michael Turner to cross the endzone stripe. Their depleted line backing corp. received some reinforcements recently, as second year player Jerrod Mayo returned to action last week and the ancient Junior Seau was resigned this week.

Projections:
Kerry Collins: 230 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Justin Gage: 35 yds receiving
Nate Washington: 60 yds receiving
Kenny Britt: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Bo Sciafe: 25 yds receiving
Chris Johnson: 85 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Lendale White: 15 yards rushing, 1 TD

Tom Brady/ Sammy Morris/ Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson (vs. TEN)


TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +49.4%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -38.1%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +65.9%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +53.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: While everyone was expecting Brady to return to 2007 form in the preseason, it seems that season may have been the true outlier in what would be a remarkable career for Brady even without it. Brady is one of the NFL’s best QBs and one of the better fantasy QBs as well, but owners cannot expect those gaudy numbers this year (and likely never again). Wes Welker’s return from injury has helped get the offense back on track, but Randy Moss has still not been truly unleashed. The loss of LT Matt Light is likely not a very good thing for this offense so perhaps my next line may be a bit presumptuous.

We may see the 2007 version of the offense this week, at least, as the hapless Titan pass defense comes to Foxboro. The Titans allow 225 ypg and have allowed 10 passing TDs through 5 weeks. CB Cortland Finnegan isn’t expected back this week, leaving the Titans thin in the secondary and susceptible to the Pats passing game.-The numbers above tell you to start all players from the Patriots’ passing game, but you probably didn’t need to see those numbers to know that.

Running Game Thoughts: Sammy Morris has moved into the lead role of the Pats’ RBBC after Fred Taylor went to the scrap heap. Morris has always been a tough blue collar type interior runner who is also an effective pass catcher. Laurence Maroney who has major league talent, has not been able to put it together since his outstanding rookie season. He has cut down on his dancing behind the line (which seemed to put in the doghouse in the past) and has run more aggressive in his runs, but that hasn’t earned him a bigger role. An eventual change of scenery may be the best thing for Maroney if he is ever going to live up to his potential.

The Titans are still tough to run on despite the loss of Albert Haynesworth. They allow only 63.8 ypg and have only given up 2 rushing TDs this season. Tony Brown, Jovan Haye and Jason Jones have effectively manned the interior of the line in Haynesworth’s absence and strong tacklers like Keith Bullock, Stephen Tulloch and David Thorton at line-backer make it a difficult matchup for most runners.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 285 yds passing 3 TDs
Randy Moss: 95 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Wes Welker: 70 yds receiving
Ben Watson: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Sammy Morris: 45 yards rushing
Kevin Faulk: 10 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Patriots 27 Titans 17 ^ Top

Texans @ Bengals (Mack)

Matt Schaub / Steve Slaton
Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / Owen Daniels (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.5 %
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -9.2%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -11.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: After a beat down of epic proportions at the hands of the New York Jets in week 1, Matt Schaub and the entire Houston passing attack has finally put it all together the last four games. Schaub has thrown for 300 yards in three of those four contests while tossing 10 TDs against 3 INTs. And the biggest knock on Schaub has always been his propensity for injuries. Well, so far so good. Other than the ankle injury sustained late in the preseason, Schaub has remained upright and has performed at the level fantasy owners have been waiting for since he signed with the Texans in 2007.

All-everything WR Andre Johnson is the focal point of the passing game in Houston. His speed, size and athleticism are simply too much for most defensive backs. Owen Daniels is one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league and is second behind Johnson on the team in receptions. Cincy’s pass defense ranks in the bottom-third of the NFL, so they can be taken advantage of. Look for the success of the offensive game plan to once again be placed on the shoulders of Schaub and his targets. Obviously, Johnson and Daniels should be in your line-up, but remain weary of Kevin Walter. He’s done little to warrant a starting nod this week.

Running Game Thoughts: For all the hype that surrounded Steve Slaton entering this year and during the first quarter of the season, he’s only had two rushing TDs in the Texans’ last nine games. Not the kind of production many were anticipating when they “wasted” a top draft pick on the second year player. Slaton does, however, somewhat make up for his lack of production in the running game with his involvement in the passing game, as his 17 receptions ranks eighth in the league among RBs.

What was whispered on this site as well as several others during the preseason has now turned into a shout. Yes, Chris Brown is the goal line back in Houston, potentially stealing would-be scores from Slaton. But Brown fumbled close to the goal line in week 3 against Jacksonville, and last week he was stonewalled by Arizona. Whether that leads head coach Gary Kubiak to rethink his approach and allow Slaton a shot at the goal line remains to be seen. Nonetheless, Slaton should get respectable production as a RB2 this week.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 225 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Steve Slaton – 75 yards rushing / 40 yards rec / 1 TD rec.
Andre Johnson – 110 yards / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 20 yards
Owen Daniels – 40 yards

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Andre Caldwell / Laveranues Coles / Daniel Coats (vs. Houston)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.6%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +39.4%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.4%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -44.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Why do I feel like Carson Palmer hasn’t lived up to expectations this year? Once the heir apparent to the Best QB In The NFL, Palmer is simply an above-average fantasy QB who’s thrown at least one INT in each game this season but one. Can you win with him as your fantasy QB? Perhaps. But you may have to hope that the opponent is vulnerable.

And despite the struggles of last season, Chad Ochocinco has rebounded nicely in 2009 and has become a steady low-end WR2/high-end WR3. His 24 catches and 3 TDs through five games this season are a far cry from his 14 catches and 1 TD at this time last year. Ochocinco hasn’t had a 100-plus yard game since the last game of 2007, so his explosiveness seems to have taken a hiatus. And Laveranues Coles? Well, let’s just say his spot on your roster should be scrutinized daily. Andre Caldwell has become a much more reliable threat in the passing game than Coles. Quietly, Houston has been tough defensively against the pass this year. They’re ranked ninth in the league and have allowed only three TD passes all year. Start the usual suspects on the Bengals with caution.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson is not on my roster, although I targeted him as a RB3 during the draft. Another owner snatched him up before I could, but those lucky enough to have grabbed Benson with a mid-round selection are grinning from ear to ear, as their hunch paid off. He leads the league in rushing and even cracked the code of the mighty Baltimore Ravens run defense last week, as he became the first back in more than two season to rush for more than 100 yards against them.

Only four teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Houston Texans, so if the Bengals are to have any success offensively, you’d better believe it’s going to begin and end with Benson. He’s the direct beneficiary of a change in the offensive philosophy in Cincy from one centered on passing the ball around to a more subtle, ball controlled approach. Not only has it worked and benefited Benson, but it’s improved the Bengals’ standings in their division. They sit alone at the top of the AFC North division, and since they see that their new formula is working, there’s no reason to believe that Benson will fall back to the pack. He’s morphed into a must-start RB and should do you well this week.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 90 yards / 1 TD
Chad Ochocino – 75 yards
Andre Caldwell – 60 yards / 1 TD
Laveranues Coles – 30 yards
Daniel Coats – 15 yards

Prediction: Houston 20, Cincinnati 17 ^ Top

Lions @ Packers (Mack)

Daunte Culpepper / Kevin Smith
Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt / Brandon Pettigrew (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +23.6%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -22.4%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +28.4%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +18.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Here we go again. Head coach Jim Schwartz is playing coy regarding the availability of his rookie QB Matt Stafford. Stafford missed last week’s game with an injured knee, and as of this writing he remains noncommittal on who he will start. So obviously it’s a little early for us to speculate, but I’ll go on a limb and say Daunte gets the nod once more. Schwartz mentioned Stafford’s inability to maneuver in the pocket last week as the primary reason why he sat the rookie, and playing against Pittsburgh last week, that was probably the prudent thing to do.

If the question marks at QB aren’t enough, Calvin Johnson is a huge question mark going into the contest against the Bears. Johnson banged up a knee last week and hasn’t practiced yet this week. If he’s unavailable, Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt will see their targets increased in the game. Chicago has the league’s worst pass defense, so it might seem that whoever gets the bulk of the action should be production. Whether than increase in production warrants a start in fantasy football is another story. If Calvin is out for the game and you’re hurting for WR help due to byes and/or injuries, take a flier on Bryant Johnson and hope the Lions’ offense doesn’t go belly up.

Running Game Thoughts: As a native of Detroit and owner of Kevin Smith, I’m trying to remain optimistic about his viability as a RB2 in fantasy football. But wow, he couldn’t be more unspectacular if he tried. Yeah I know, we’re not rewarded style points in fantasy, but it’d be nice if Smith would one day make something out of nothing, taking a broken play and doing something with it. But he is what he is, and those of us who drafted him as our RB2 will have to take the total package—limitations and all.

Green Bay’s 25th ranked run defense is susceptible to big plays, but again, the Lions don’t have that kind of runner. Heck, even the lowly St. Louis Rams stacked up 149 yards on the ground against them. I say every week: don’t expect much from Kevin Smith on the ground; rather, understand that Smith’s real value lies in his role as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s second on the team in receptions and he’s really good with running screens. With all of the caveats I throw out there about Smith, know that you could do a lot worse than him as a starter on your team. As always, put him in your line-up and keep your expectations realistic.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper – 185 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Kevin Smith – 75 yards rushing / 35 yards rec
Bryant Johnson – 65 yards rec.
Dennis Northcutt – 40 yards rec.
Brandon Pettigrew – 35 yards rec. / 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Greg Jennings / Donald Driver / Jermichael Finley / Donald Lee (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +41.5%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +21.5%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +31.3%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +49.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Of the 20 games that QB Aaron Rodgers has started, he’s thrown at least one TD in all but two. Not bad considering the darts that were hurled at him about 14 months ago. He’s been solid so far in 2009 and has almost been error-free, throwing six TDs against only one INT. His yardage totals have gone up each game and he skillfully orchestrates an offensive attack that includes one of the best receiving groups in the NFL.

Greg Jennings was a top-10 fantasy WR on most people’s cheat sheets during the fantasy draft season, but it’s been veteran Donald Driver who’s been the lead dog. Driver leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs. Meanwhile, Jennings has been hit or miss. And what Jennings owner can forget the clunker from week two when he netted a grand total of zero catches? Jermichael Finley has been as productive as Jennings. With that said, there’s no way you keep Jennings out of your line-up—not when he and his receiving mates are going against a Detroit pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league and has allowed a league-worst 12 TD receptions.

Running Game Thoughts: If there’s a RB in the league who in my opinion is challenging Kevin Smith for the “Unspectacular and Boring” RB label it has to be Ryan Grant. Watching him play is like watching my neighbor cut his lawn; translation: you’d rather be doing something else. Grant is averaging a paltry 64 rushing yards a game and 3.8 yards per carry. Again, unspectacular and boring.

Detroit’s 19th ranked run defense is sort of a misnomer. They’ve actually played well, holding players such as Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall to modest production. Grant could be held in check, and he’s not a major player in the Packers’ passing game. Keep your expectations in low and hope that Grant does enough to reward you in the end.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 265 yards / 3 TDs
Ryan Grant – 70 yards rushing
Donald Driver – 110 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 80 yards / 1 TD
Jermichael Finley – 45 yards
Donald Lee – 35 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Detroit 13 ^ Top

Ravens @ Vikings (Mack)

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice / Willis McGahee
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.5%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -34.4%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -22.5%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +91.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: In what is sure to be one of the best games of the week, Joe Flacco looks to avenge his first poor performance of the year. Last week’s game against Cincy found Flacco struggling, as he threw multiple INTs in a game for the first time since week 14 of 2008. Minnesota is ranked 12th against the pass and 10th overall, so Flacco will have to bring it. And any passing game going up against the Vikings has to first contend with DE Jared Allen. Allen has played like a defensive MVP so far, and he will make life tough for Flacco and Co. if he’s not held under control on passing downs.

Derrick Mason will look to perform well this week after laying an egg last week. He was held without a catch against the Bengals. The irony in the Ravens’ passing game is their #1 WR (Mason) is actually third on the team in total number of catches on the year. Mason will have a good game this week. Todd Heap has stayed healthy and is reminding many of the Heap from four or five years ago. He could be in for a long day, as the Vikings have arguably the best LB corps in the league.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice is turning into a top-15 fantasy RB for 2010 right before our eyes. He’s a dual threat RB whose 23 receptions lead the Ravens, and whose spectacular TD reception last week will end up being one of the best of the season. Rice’s eye-popping 5.8 yards per carry is evidence of his explosiveness; all that’s missing in his arsenal is the short-yardage carries. If/when he starts getting those money carries (either in 2009 or 2010), watch out.

Willis McGahee has accepted his role as a load-sharer just fine. Once the bell cow for the Ravens, McGahee now plays a defined, yet more limited role within the offense and it’s paid off. Through five games, he already has as many TDs as he did all of last year. McGahee only got one carry last week, and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has vowed to give him more touches this week. But good luck for those of you starting and counting on McGahee. Minnesota has yet to give up a rushing TD this season.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 210 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Ray Rice – 70 yards rushing / 40 yards rec.
Willis McGahee – 45 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Mason – 80 yards rec. / 1 TD
Mark Clayton – 45 yards rec.
Todd Heap – 35 yards / 1 TD

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor
Bernard Berrian / Sidney Rice / Visanthe Shaincoe (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.0%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.2%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +9.3%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -40.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Remember the Brett Favre who closed out 2008 with 2 TDs and 9 INTs over the last five games? What happened to that Favre? The one many (including yours truly) was washed up and that he should stay retired in Mississippi? Well, apparently that Favre is gone for the time being. Favre’s 2 INTs so far this year is the fewest he’s had through the first five games of any season since 1996. And what’s more, the once-vaunted and feared Baltimore pass defense has been susceptible this season. They rank 20th in pass defense, but you know they’ll be hyped for this one.

As well as Favre has played, it’s amazing that none of his receivers have taken a leap forward in their fantasy relevance. In fact, the team’s leading receiver is RB Chester Taylor. Bernard Berrian, previously known for his big plays in years gone by, is averaging a career-low 11.4 yards per reception, and Sidney Rice is hit or miss. Rookie Percy Harvin, though, is turning into a do-everything weapon that NFL teams and fantasy owners crave. Favre and Harvin are good starts this week, but start the others at your own peril.

Running Game Thoughts: If Adrian Peterson is held under 100 yards rushing this week, it will be the first time in his brilliant career that he’d miss that milestone in five straight games. Baltimore enters the game having surrendered 100 yards to Cedric Benson last week, so perhaps the Ravens feel they’ve met their season quota. We will see. It doesn’t matter who the Vikings are playing. Peterson is simply too good to be kept down for any length of time. Look for the Vikings to establish the run early and give Peterson every opportunity to be successful.

Chester Taylor leads the team in receptions and should be a major component in the passing game as well this week. Baltimore will certainly attempt to bring the heat on Favre, and Taylor could be his best friend on those short dump-offs this week. Taylor is a sneaky start this week. Normally, owners toy with the idea of putting Taylor in their line-up against suspect defenses, but don’t be surprised if Taylor gives some surprising production this week against a formidable foe.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 225 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Adrian Peterson – 120 yards / 1 TD
Chester Taylor – 15 yards rushing / 30 yards rec.
Percy Harvin – 70 yards rec.
Sidney Rice – 50 yards rec. / 1 TD
Bernard Berrian – 35 yards rec.
Visanthe Shiancoe – 30 yards rec.

Prediction: Baltimore 21, Minnesota 20 ^ Top

Browns @ Steelers (Mack)

Derek Anderson / Jamal Lewis
Mohamed Massaquoi / Josh Cribbs / Steve Heiden (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.2%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -43.3%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.5%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +31.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: How in the world can an NFL QB go 2-17 for 23 yards in an NFL game? How is that possible? Two completions? Are you serious? Here’s the best part. How could the “genius” Eric Mangini think that this couldn’t happen? Mangini has come to town and gotten rid of two of the best players on the team in TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards. Would Derek Anderson had completed only two passes if Winslow and Edwards were still on the team? Absolutely not. These so-called addition-by-subtraction moves are signs of a clueless dictator who appears more interested in showing his team who’s boss than winning football games.

Now the Browns travel to their arch nemesis’ home, a team that would want nothing more than to continue the embarrassment that was last week. Derek Anderson is a joke. Brady Quinn is unproven. The receivers are inexperienced. The head coach is pompous, arrogant and living off the reputation of his New England Patriot days. Other than that, this team is headed in the right direction. This game could be a shutout. Heaven help you if you have to rely on a Cleveland Brown this week.

Running Game Thoughts: I remember all the rumors that circulated on this site late in the preseason about the possibility of Jamal Lewis getting cut. Well, he wasn’t, and good for the Browns. Surprisingly—or sadly, depending on how you look at it—Lewis has proven to be the only offensive weapon of any significance on the team. This team has only scored one rushing TD all year, and that was Anderson. Shockingly, they’ve only scored three the entire season. Unbelievable.

What happened to the young, up-and-coming offensive line we heard so much about last year? This team is in shambles, both from an NFL and fantasy perspective. Honestly, in redraft leagues, I can’t see how anyone on this team is even worth a roster spot, much less a starting spot in your line-up.

Projections:
Derek Anderson – 110 yards / 0 TDs / 2 INTs
Jamal Lewis – 55 yards
Mohamed Massaquoi – 45 yards rec.
Josh Cribbs – 35 yards rec.
Steve Heiden – 20 yards rec.

Ben Roethlisberger / Willie Parker / Rashard Mendenhall
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Heath Miller (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -12.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +52.7%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.4%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -33.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has been on fire the last two weeks. Five TDs against only one INT while completing almost 78 percent of his passes is the stuff that makes fantasy owners glow. The wretched 30th ranked defense of Cleveland is in for a long day against Big Ben. He’s obviously a no-brainer; the only issue is if (or rather, when) the Steelers get up big, they will take the air out the ball and play traditional smash mouth Pittsburgh football and run the ball probably 40 times.

Hines Ward continues to amaze. Just when some are primed to write him off as the unquestioned #2 in Pittsburgh, he comes up with three or four solid games in a row to quiet all the Santonio Holmes-has-overtaken-Ward talk. Speaking of Holmes, what’s happened to him? After a 9 catch, 131 yard explosion in week 1, he’s had a TOTAL of 14 catches in the four games since. So much for him being the #1 in Pittsburgh. However, one look at that Cleveland defense should put a smile on the faces of all those who own Steelers this week. Get Big Ben and all the pass-catchers in your line-up and hope the Steelers’ early scores are through the air.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall has battled flu-like symptoms this week and hasn’t practiced as of this writing. Word is it’s 50-50 whether he plays. Meanwhile, Willie Parker is back at practice after missing two games with a bum toe. He says he’s ready to go. If both Parker and Mendenhall play, there’s a good chance that Parker would get the bulk of the work, considering he may end up with more practice time this week. Either way, the running game for the Steelers will be front and center this week. It’s advised that you keep an eye on the injury report going into the weekend. If both play, they could cut into each other’s production. Be mindful of that.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 220 yards / 2 TDs
Willie Parker – 80 yards / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 50 yards
Hines Ward – 85 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 60 yards
Heath Miller – 45 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Cleveland 6 ^ Top

Giants @ Saints (Kilroy)

Eli Manning / Brandon Jacobs / Ahmad Bradshaw
Steve Smith / Mario Manningham / Kevin Boss (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -16.8%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -28.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -39.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Through the first six weeks of the season, Eli Manning has proven he can make due without the likes of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer at wide receiver. He’s off to the best start of his career through the first five games of the season and looks to keep at that pace on the road this Sunday against the Saints.

New Orleans (4-0) is off to a fine start themselves, and while the offense receives most of the acclaim, their defense has performed better than advertised - they currently rank 11th in the league against the pass, allowing an average of 212.0 yards per game through the air. They’ve also allowed just three touchdown passes (2nd fewest in the league) and their ten interceptions is tops in the NFL.

The plantar fasciitis that limited Eli to just 10 passing attempts last week isn’t expected to hamper him in this contest. Expect him to play a full four quarters and throw for over 200 yards. He’s also likely to find at least one of his targets in the end zone.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints haven’t just been defending the pass well. They currently rank seventh in the league with an average of 83.2 rushing yards allowed per game. Running backs have been able to reach the end zone against them however, with the Saints yielding 3 rushing touchdowns in four games. Given how successful the Giants have moved the ball on the ground – they rank 4th in the league with an average of 160.4 rushing yards per game – expect the duo of Jacobs and Bradshaw to find the end zone at least once this week.

Projections:
Eli Manning – 220 yards passing / 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs – 85 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 10 yards receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw – 60 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Mario Manningham – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kevin Boss – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey (vs. New York)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -36.0%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -24.2%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -66.5%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +18.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees’ hot start came to a screeching halt during his last two starts before the Saints bye last Sunday. After combining for 9 touchdown passes and 669 passing yards in the first two games, he threw for a total of zero touchdowns and 362 yards in his last two outings. Now he returns to face the top ranked defensive unit against the pass in the league.

New York has limited opponents to an average of 104.8 passing yards per game against them. That said, they’ve yet to face an offense capable of matching the Saints offensive output. Brees should be able to surpass 200 passing yards in this one and snap his two-game streak without a score. Don’t expect it to be one of his best outings of the season though.

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants have defended the pass well, but they could be better against the run. Opposing offensives have averaged 4.8 yards per carry against them and scored 5 rushing touchdowns. This should translate into a few big plays here and there for the Saints tandem of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Bush’s contributions are more likely to come as part of the passing game however. The Saints rushing attack also ranks second in the league with an average of 166.2 yards per game on the ground, making Thomas a safe play for this week.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 225 yards passing / 2 TD
Pierre Thomas – 105 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Reggie Bush – 45 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 35 yards receiving
Marques Colston – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Shockey – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: New Orleans 27, New York 24 ^ Top

Panthers @ Buccaneers (Kilroy)

Jake Delhomme / DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart / Steve Smith / Muhsin Muhammad (vs. Tampa Bay)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +24.9%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.9%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +42.9%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +4.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Panthers may have come away with a win last week against the Redskins, but their passing attack had little to do with it. It was perhaps Jake Delhomme’s best outing of the season, but he still only threw for 181 yards. He does happen to go against a Bucs secondary that has allowed 12 touchdown passes (3rd most in the league) and 227.2 passing yards per game (21st) against them this Sunday though. For this reason Delhomme could make for a worthwhile BYE week replacement.

Steve Smith stands a good chance of scoring his first touchdown of the season and recording 75 yards for the first time since Week 2. Mushsin Muhammad is safe bet for another 40-50 yards receiving.

Running Game Thoughts: For as bad the Buccaneers are against the pass, their even worse against the run. Teams are currently averaging more than 30 attempts and 152.6 rushing yards against them per game. This should translate into a fair level of success for both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart even though Carolina’s rushing attack has yet to perform to expectations. If they can’t get it going this week against Tampa Bay, it may be time move Williams for something of better value.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme – 220 yards passing / 1 TD
DeAngelo Willaims – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Jonathan Stewart – 40 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 10 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 105 yards receiving / 1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Josh Johnson / Carnell Williams
Antonio Bryant / Michael Clayton / Kellen Winslow (vs. Carolina)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -3.6%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +28.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -38.0%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +11.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh Johnson looked good at times in his second start against the Eagles, but ultimately his three interceptions ruined his day. His favorite target proved to be tight end Kellen Winslow (9 receptions, 102 yards, 2 TDs), who should have another productive outing this week against the Panthers. Antonio Bryant also had his most productive outing of the season with 5 catches for 62 yards.

If Johnson shows progression following his performance against Philadelphia, it could translate into another surprise outing from the second year quarterback. The Panthers are limiting opponents to 165.8 passing yards per game against them, but they’ve also allowed 6 touchdown passes in four contests. If the chemistry between Johnson and Winslow is real, Johnson could be a decent back-up going forward.

Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay’s rushing attack hasn’t performed as well as expected following Cadillac’s outing in Week One, but with the Panthers allowing opponents to average more than 150 rushing yards per game against them they should find some success this week. Carnell Williams may not find the end zone, but he should produce 70-100 yards on the ground. If he were able to get 20 carries in this game he’d likely do more damage.

Projections:
Josh Johnson – 180 yards passing / 1 TD
Carnell Williams – 90 yards rushing / 0 TD
Antonio Bryant – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Michael Clayton – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kellen Winslow – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 13 ^ Top

Rams @ Jaguars (Kilroy)

Marc Bulger / Steven Jackson
Donnie Avery / Keenan Burton / Randy McMichael (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +30.7%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.2%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +64.5%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -29.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jaguars are coming off an embarrassing loss in which they allowed Matt Hasslebeck to throw for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns against them en route to a 41-0 victory. For the season they currently rank fourth against the pass, allowing 273.0 yards per game. The Rams however are among the worst teams in the league with a passing attack that ranks 27th in the NFL.

Following such a dreadful defeat, the Jacksonville defense should be looking to beat up at home one of the weakest opponents they will face all year. Bulger should post more than 200 yards passing, but he won’t come close to matching the production Hasslebeck had against the Jaguars.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson’s yardage production has been sound, but he’s yet to score a touchdown. Jacksonville may make it six straight games to start the season without a score for the St. Louis running back as they’ve allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns in their five games played. Opponents have had success moving the ball on the ground against them however, so expect Jackson to total something in the 90-120 yard range.

Projections:
Marc Bulger – 200 yards passing / 1 TD
Steven Jackson – 90 yards rushing / 1 TDs / 30 yards receiving
Donnie Avery – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Keenan Burton – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Randy McMichael – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs

David Garrard / Maurice Jones-Drew
Torry Holt / Mike Sims-Walker / Marcedes Lewis (vs. St. Louis)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +14.2%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +13.8%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.0%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +45.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard had an awful performance against the Seahawks following an outstanding outing the previous week against the Titans. Of course, the Titans are one of the worst teams in the league against the pass, and Mike Sims-Walker was active for that game.

Fortunately for Jacksonville, both of those statements can be made for their outing this week against the Rams. Sims-Walker returns following a healthy scratch last week due to missing team curfew. And as for the Rams, they rank just 25th in the league against the pass. Both things considered owners should expect a nice rebound performance for the Jaguars signal caller. Marcedes Lewis might in for one of his better outings this year as well.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew wasn’t happy with his team’s offensive performance last week and let people know about it by declaring himself “the second highest paid decoy” in the league. After talk like that, it’s safe to expect a heavy dose of MJD this week against the Rams. It only helps matters that St. Louis is allowing opponents 125.8 yards per game on the ground against them and yielded 6 rushing touchdowns this season. Expect a touchdown or two from Jones-Drew this Sunday along with 100-plus total yards.

Projections:
David Garrard – 225 yards passing / 2 TD / 20 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 105 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Torry Holt – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Mike Sims-Walker – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Jacksonville 28, St. Louis 14 ^ Top

Bears @ Falcons (Kilroy)

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte / Devin Hester
Earl Bennett / Johnny Knox / Greg Olsen (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -12.8%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +10.4%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -28.2%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +26.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler continues to get a better feel for the players around him with each game that passes and should find success this Sunday Night against the Falcons. Atlanta is currently allowing an average 228.8 passing yards per game and has yielded 3 touchdown passes in 4 games.

Cutler meanwhile has thrown for 8 touchdowns in four outings and has accounted for 2 or more in three straight contests. This game also figures to be a high scoring affair, so Cutler will have plenty of opportunities to cash in. There’s a good chance he’ll throw for over 225 yards with at least one touchdown.

Running Game Thoughts: After a slow start to the season, Matt Forte finally broke free in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions (12 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD). He’ll face a Falcons unit this weekend that is allowing 127.0 yards per game on the ground. He’ll also be fresh off the Bears BYE week and ready to roll. Expect him to rush for over a 100 yards with a touchdown this Sunday against the Falcons for good reason.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 240 yards passing / 2 TD passes
Matt Forte – 105 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Devin Hester – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Earl Bennett – 25 yards receiving
Johnny Knox – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Greg Olsen – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD

Matt Ryan / Michael Turner
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.7%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -4.3%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -8.2%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +13.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: As mentioned, this game figures to be a contest in which both teams produce more than 20 points. That being the case, Ryan (as well as Cutler) will have plenty of opportunities to produce yardage and a touchdown pass or two. He’s currently coming off his best game of the season and figures to have another productive outing against a defensive unit ranked 20th in the league against the pass.

Tony Gonzalez should be a strong play this week as well, with Roddy White looks to build off his superb outing (8 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs) last Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner has produced three straight games with at least one touchdown – walking away with three, last Sunday, against the 49ers alone. The Bears have allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in 4 games this season, but have performed admirably against the run – ranking 9th in the league with an average of 93.5 rushing yards per game against them.

As the Falcons cowbell, expect Turner to handle another 20-plus carries and push the century mark this week on the ground. There’s also a good chance he’ll reach the end zone for a fourth straight outing.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 230 yards passing / 2 TDs
Michael Turner – 95 yards rushing / 1 TD
Roddy White – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Chicago 21 ^ Top

Eagles @ Raiders (Eakin)

Donovan McNabb/DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin/Brent Celek
Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -1.1%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +45.1%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +1.8%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -35.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: With a breakout performance by rookie Jeremy Maclin in week 5, one of the league’s more dangerous vertical passing attacks, becomes downright lethal. The emergence of Maclin will make teams hesitant to double Jackson and help the offense keep the offense from stalling when teams have an elite CB like the Raider’s Asomugha. Philly will want to get out to a big lead to force JaMarcus Russell into passing mode. If Asomugha follows Jackson around the field then Maclin will again play a featured role in the offense.

Oakland may deepen their safeties and sit in soft zone to prevent McNabb from going deep to their WRs. If so, TE Brent Celek and both Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy will have plenty of room to roam on underneath routes. At least with that strategy, it will take Philly longer to score and Oakland will have a chance to keep them in the game longer.

Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles reiterated their plan to rotate RBs Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy every other series to keep Westbrook fresh for the late season run. There is little need to over-work him this week in what should be a relatively easy win, especially coming off the ankle injury. Despite a gravy match-up, there may be a shortage of work for “Westy” if the Eagles have the game by halftime. Expectations would be that when the Eagles get down to division crunch time and tougher match-ups, then the veteran playmakers value will rise. For now, treat him as a low-end RB2 and McCoy as a decent flex option against the Raiders.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 245 yds/2 TD
DeSean Jackson: 50 yds
Jeremy Maclin: 75 yds/1 TD
Brent Celek: 70 yds/1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 50 yds rushing/30 yds rec/1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 40 yds rushing/20 yds rec

JaMarcus Russell/Louis Murphy/Chaz Schilens/Zach Miller/
Michael Bush/Justin Fargas (vs. PHI)


PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -4.4%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -3.8%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -16.5%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +13.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: WR Chaz Schilens is set to return to the fold, but has eight weeks of rust to shake off. Schilens had some spots of success with Russell last season and could provide a much-needed boost to a struggling offense. Russell has a long way to go before passing as a capable starting signal caller in this league but few QBs without the last name Manning could be expected to play effectively with only a pair of rookie WRs to throw to. It will be interesting to see if Louis Murphy sees more action than Darrius Heyward-Bey since Murphy has the results and DHB has the contract. Also of note, TE Zach Miller, formerly the Raiders only consistent offensive skill player, finally showed some signs of relevance last week with four grabs for 69 yards. He will be an important safety valve for Russell to locate when the Eagles bring numbers, and it’s a good bet they will. Philly is 18th in TE FPTs allowed.

Running Game Thoughts: Anemic. It looks as though Oakland’s best run blocking guard, Robert Gallery, is still a week away. With McFadden out, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas rotated evenly, with Bush having more yards and a score. Bush is the better fantasy play with the ability to make more out of less, and being the short yardage option with the best chance of scoring. Neither back should be in a starting line-up, if possible, against a stingy Philly defense. The Eagles have a good chance of getting a quick lead and limiting the number of carries for Oakland RBs.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 130 yds/1 INT
Chaz Schilens: 40 yds
Louis Murphy: 30 yds
Zach Miller: 40 yds
Michael Bush: 40 yds rushing/1 TD
Justin Fargas: 30 yds rushing

Prediction: Eagles 27 Raiders 7 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Seahawks (Eakin)

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Tim Hightower (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -16.7%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -0.1%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -1.4%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -23.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: There were two things the Cardinals pass offense needed to adjust coming out of the bye. First was the getting top playmaker Larry Fitzgerald more involved. Five receptions for 79 yards and two scores certainly represent more involvement so we’ll give them a passing grade there. The second adjustment was increasing their vertical passing threat. Last week’s 26-yard scoring strike to Fitz is the longest pass play to any of their “big three” WRs through four games. A minor nitpick of an offense that continues to put ample points on the board, perhaps, but a hint that either Warner is being protected for a down the road or his throwing shoulder is in worse shape than reported.

The key for Seattle will be pressure. Warner becomes very average when pressured in the pocket. DE Patrick Kerney missed last week and is questionable for this week. It would be a boost if he can play but Darryl Tapp did solid job filling in with four tackles and a sack. Rookie OLB Aaron Curry continues to impress. He led Seattle with nine tackles last week. Curry is capable of game changing plays if Arizona fails to shift blocking to account for him.

Running Game Thoughts: There was no coming out party for top Chris Wells as some suggested there might be coming out of the bye week. When he is in the game defenses know a run play is coming. Until he is trusted on passing downs, the Arizona offense will lack balance and unpredictability. There is little question he can be a dominant force for that offense when he gets going and that he provides much more punch than current starting RB Tim Hightower. Until then, no Cardinal RB is better than a flex play.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 240 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 75 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 40 yds
Tim Hightower: 30 yds rushing/25 rec
Chris Wells: 45 yds/1 TD

Matt Hasselbeck/Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/John Carlson/
Julius Jones/Justin Forsett (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +35.0%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -8.8%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +37.6%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +34.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: This game has big implications for the division. Seattle cannot afford to lose serve on their home court and lose all the momentum of last week’s drubbing of the Jaguars. First priority is to keep Matt Hasselbeck clean. Seattle’s offensive line is still a mess with three starters out and another injury to Hasselbeck could spell doom. To protect him, they will employ quick three and five step drops on timing routes would mean a big day for TE John Carlson but the O-line woes have forced them to keep him in to block more than they would like. Short possession routes and T.J. Houshmandzadeh go together like bread and butter and last week proved his stock rises considerably with Hasselbeck back in the saddle. If this game turns in to a shootout, RB Justin Forsett may see a spike in production as their preferred target out of the backfield.

Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones continues to struggle, in part because Seattle had such a big lead that his backups got more work, and in part because he is Julius Jones. He has some big play ability but his offensive line is banged up and he is not a guy that’s going to move the pile. Arizona’s run defense is solid with improved contributions from Alan Branch and Gabe Watson. As much as Seattle would like to establish the run to keep Warner off the field, they just don’t have the physicality to match up with Arizona’s front seven.

Prediction:
Matt Hasselbeck: 260 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Nate Burleson: 50 yds/1 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 90 yds
John Carlson: 60 yds/1 TD
Julius Jones: 55 yds rushing/20 rec/1 TD
Justin Forsett: 20 yds/35 yds rec

Prediction: Seattle 27 Arizona 24 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chargers (Eakin)

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Tony Scheffler
Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -11.4%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +59.1%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -21.9%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +24.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Broncos are coming off the emotional win over New England while the Chargers rested on their bye with an extra week to prepare, and are playing at home. All things seem to hint at a letdown game but HC Josh McDaniels has been very impressive in preparing the Broncos. Kyle Orton’s 35/48 for 330 yards and two scores played so far above their previous efforts one wonders if McDaniels ran a little vanilla to start the year to unleash on his former team. Sure, a more rational explanation could be that the team is getting more adept with his complex schemes, as Eddie Royal suggested this week while explaining his poor start, but what would be the fun in that? My vote is for the conspiracy theory. Regardless, the Chargers will be rested, fired-up for a potentially division deciding game, with a pretty good secondary that matches up pretty well with Denver WRs Marshall and Royal, provided they can get some pressure on Orton.

Shawn Merriman must turn things around and begin returning to form. Orton proved capable of picking solid CBs apart when given time. Look for fellow OLB Larry English to help provide some pressure. The Chargers may look to blitz from the up the middle since Denver’s young OTs simply do not get beat for sacks.

Running Game Thoughts: The way to beat the Chargers and home teams in general is an effective ground game that will keep the crowd quiet, eat clock, and keep the likes of Phillip Rivers off the field. The Patriots are notorious for changing game plans up week to week, McDaniels was the OC behind that notoriety, and Denver went pass happy last week. With Correll Buckhalter back in the line-up this week, he has the horses to switch to a heavy run attack. It also doesn’t hurt that the Charger’s have major problems on the D-line and stopping the run. It will take an emotional effort for San Diego to stop Denver from running to victory.

Predictions:
Kyle Orton: 230 yds/1 TDs
Brandon Marshall: 75 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 55 yds
Tony Scheffler: 40 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 80 yds/30 rec/1 TD
Correll Buckhalter: 75 yds/15 rec

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles (vs. DEN)


DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -38.5%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -22.3%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -32.6%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -55.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chargers boast one of the league’s most lethal combo’s in River’s to Jackson, but CB Champ Bailey is back to his dominant form after some injuries last season, and will look to slow them down. He will, but at 6’5”, Jackson is a good bet to snag, one or two deep lobs that River’s throws as well as any QB in the NFL. For moving the chains, San Diego needs Chris Chambers to step up and provide another reliable target to couple with TE Antonio Gates. Chambers thinks his timing is slightly off, and he will be back on track soon, scouts think Chambers has lost a step, which is doom for a guy that relied on speed and never was a great route runner. WRs Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee will see some action rotating with Chambers if he continues to struggle. This is now Phillip River’s team and their passing attack will be relied upon to carry them down the stretch.

Elvis Dumervil continues to dominate. He is the critical pass rusher to slow down for the Chargers to get time to hit their lethal deep strikes. If they can’t get him blocked then Antonio Gates and Darren Sproles will be relied upon as check down options.

Running Game Thoughts: This is supposed to be L.T.’s breakout games now that he is 100 percent healthy and rested but few teams have had success running against Denver ranked 7th in fewest RB FPTs allowed. I don’t see Tomlinson having a big game. His quickness has improved but he’s no longer elite and the Chargers pass too much for him to get enough carries. To this point, Darren Sproles has been the preferred third down choice so Tomlinson hasn’t been racking up much in the way of receiving yards. We’ll see if they change that to get him going.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 250 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 80 yds/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 30 yds
Antonio Gates: 65 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 60 yds rushing/35 yds rec/1 TD
Darren Sproles: 20 yds/30 yds rec

Prediction: San Diego 24 Denver 20 ^ Top