Ravens @ Patriots (Marcoccio)

Joe Flacco/Ray Rice/Willis McGahee
Derrick Mason/Mark Clayton/Kelly Washington/Todd Heap (vs. NE)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -22.3%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.7%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -39.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -1.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco continues to grow as an NFL QB each week. A mere “game manger” last season, he is having a season on par with the league’s top QBs (whether from an NFL or Fantasy Football perspective) in 2010. Last season, when he was allowed to throw, he was limited mostly to sideline patterns where the WR would either catch the ball or it would end up out of bounds. This season he has been allowed to attack the middle of the field making Todd Heap a viable TE option after a few years of being an afterthought. Flacco has one of the leagues strongest arms and surprising mobility for a QB his size. His emergence has helped resurrect the career of former top prospect Kelly Washington (12-167-1 on the season) who, for the last couple of years, has bounced around the league as nothing more than a special teams player. He now looks more like the star WR he was drafted to be by the Bengals.

The Pats secondary, which allowed more passing TDs than all but one team (Arizona) last season, has stepped up this season and ranks 6th in the league – allowing 174 ypg and 3 TDs in 2009. Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season as the Pats game plan helped make the Atlanta offense look sluggish. Belicheck has been able to take a couple of other team’s castoffs (Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden) and turn them into a rather formidable CB duo. The pair should be able to shut down the solid but unspectacular Raven wide-outs.

Running Game Thoughts: The combination of Ray Rice and Willis MaGahee, while a headache to owners, has been one of the more impressive duos in the NFL during the first three weeks. MaGahee who was tossed to the scrap heap by many pundits prior to the season has bounced back from an injury plagued 2008 and has showed the burst and hard running style that made him a force in 2007 for the Ravens. Former Scarlet Knight Rice has taken advantage of grabbing the starting nod and has shown why his game has been compared to Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. He is small in stature and does not have elite speed, but runs with power between the tackles and has hips that seem to be on a swivel as he works his way around defenders. The young Baltimore o-line is shaping up to be one of the best units in the league and still has room to grow.
The Patriots have played the run relatively well despite losing many impact players during the offseason and to in-season injuries. So far this season they are allowing only 88.3 yards per games and have only allowed Michael Turner to cross the endzone stripe. Last week I implied that perhaps the Pats have just appeared to be tough on opposing runners due to the circumstances of the games they’ve played in so far, but I will now give some credit to Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren and Aldalius Thomas as well as the NE coaching staff. This unit seems to be for real.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 215 yds passing, 1 TD
Derrick Mason: 50 yds receiving
Mark Clayton: 35 yds receiving
Kelly Washington: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Todd Heap: 35 yds receiving
Ray Rice: 75 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Willis MaGahee: 50 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Tom Brady/ Fred Taylor/ Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Joey Galloway/Ben Watson (vs. BAL)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -0.3%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -32.6%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +0.4%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -25.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Perhaps this is the real Tom Brady. While everyone was expecting Brady to return to 2007 form, it seems that season may have been the true outlier in what is still a remarkable career for Brady. Prior to 2007, Brady was one of the NFL’s best QBs and one of the better fantasy QBs as well (you could pencil him in for 27-30 TDs each year), but he wasn’t a “great” fantasy QB. The loss of Wes Welker (it doesn’t seem like the Pats are being truly forthcoming about his injury, go figure) has slowed down this offense, but in fairness rookie Julian Edelman has been effective in that role, so it may be more than just that. While some of the “decline” may be due to Tommy being rusty and a little gun shy, it does seem that perhaps the Patriots realize as currently constructed they are better off running the ball, playing solid defense, keeping games close and pulling out victories as they did pre-2007. Outside of Randy Moss, without Welker, they just don’t really have playmakers on offense. Don’t be surprised if the 2007 Pats are truly a thing of the past.

For the past year or two, Baltimore has been so tough to run on, and relatively (as compared to their run defense) easy to pass on. This is once again the case, but now, their pass defense may truly be in decline and it may not just be “relative”. When you are ranked 18th against the pass (213.7 ypg, 4 TDs) and have squared off against Brodie Croyle and Brady Quinn/Derek Anderson in two of those games, you just may not be that good. Ok, Philip Rivers massive Week 2 game did skew the stats to some degree, but don’t be surprised to see teams abandon the run and challenge the average Raven secondary. However, even with the departure of Rex Ryan, this is still an attacking defense that can generate a pass rush (7 sacks in 3 games), so this game should be a real good indicator to see if Brady truly is “gun shy” on a gimpy knee as some have put forth or if he can get the offense back on track.

Running Game Thoughts: What’s that, the Pats may finally have a feature back? Fred Taylor turned his 21 carries into 105 yards rushing and a TD against a fairly tough Atlanta D at Foxboro this past Sunday. Taylor does not run with the fluidity that he showed in his prime, but like some prior successful aging backs he is savvy enough to find the openings and gain the yards the defense gives him. Slowly and steadily Taylor has gained the trust of Belicheck and its now safe to assume that he should get the majority of carries each week – but do not forget that the Pats are big proponents of game and situational planning when it comes to the backfield so don’t go crazy in trying to acquire Taylor.

Of course just when fantasy owners feel safe about starting a Patriot RB, the mighty Baltimore Ravens come to town making that a bad idea. The Ravens are the No. 1 ranked run defense allowing a paltry 51 yards per game and have not allowed a rushing TD so far in 2009. At an age when conventional wisdom says that he should be in decline, Ray Lewis is playing at an elite level. If you have better options, you should always consider sitting your RB when Baltimore is the opponent.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 yds passing 2 TDs
Randy Moss: 85 yds receiving, 1 TDs
Wes Welker (or Julian Edelman) : 60 yds receiving
Joey Galloway: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ben Watson: 35 yds receiving
Fred Taylor: 65 yards rushing
Kevin Faulk: 10 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving

Prediction: Patriots 17 Ravens 10

Bills @ Dolphins (Marcoccio)

Trent Edwards/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Derek Fine (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +16.2%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -25.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -19.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +103.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards had his worst game of the season last week against the Saints in Buffalo. While it was a windy day, and even Drew Brees failed to put up respectable numbers, Edwards was hurt by either his inability to throw the ball down field or by OC Alex Van Pelt’s refusal to let him. Edwards threw mostly short passes to slot WR Josh Reed and TE Derek Fine and barely looked at his high priced starting WR duo. In his third season of NFL action, Edwards simply must trust his arm and WRs enough to push the ball downfield or the Bills will struggle to score points.

Miami’s pass defense left a lot to be desired last season and has fared even worse so far in 2009. They are allowing 255.3 ypg and have given up 5 passing TDs so far. They have faced some strong QBs however in Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers so they should welcome Trent Edwards with open arms this week. A look at those QBs should also help tell the story as to why the Miami defense has allowed opposing TEs to score 103% more fantasy points against them than the NFL average, since they have faced a murderer’s row of TEs: Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. Derek Fine is not in the same universe as those guys, but I’m sure his mother loves him just fine (no pun intended).

Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners who took advantage of Fred Jackson’s 425 total yards and a TD through 3 weeks cannot be happy that the suspension levied against Marshawn Lynch by the NFL came to an end after last week’s game. Word from HC Dick Jaroun is that the two backs will split carries going forward, which will limit both back’s fantasy value. Lynch is a hard runner with excellent vision, but is not as shifty as Jackson which may make him a little less effective behind the Bills’ inexperienced o-line which has not been generating massive holes. Fred Jackson has been the best offensive player on the field for the Bills through 3 weeks, so he must continue to see significant snaps. Given Edwards penchant for dinking and dunking, it stands to reason that Jackson will be used more as a target for dump off passes when he’s on the field in 3rd down situations. While fantasy footballers will suffer, the Bills will benefit, as a Lynch/Jackson combo will be among the league’s best 1-2 punches out of the backfield.

Miami’s defense will test this combo right off the bat as they have been a virtual brick wall for opposing RBs. They rank third in rushing yards allowed (66 per game) and have only allowed 2 rushing TDs. If the Bills need to rely on the passing game because they cannot generate a rushing attack, Miami may be able to pull off their first win of the season and Chad Henne era.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 225 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Lee Evans: 80 yds receiving
Terrell Owens: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Derek Fine: 10 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 55 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 25 yds rushing, 1TD

Chad Henne/ Ronnie Brown / Ricky Williams
Ted Ginn Jr./Greg Camarillo/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +34.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -18.8%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +125.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chad Henne era begins a little earlier than expected due to Chad Pennington’s third shoulder surgery that just may end his injury plagued career. As a Jet season ticket holder with a soft spot in his heart for Chadwick Pennington, I’d like thank him for his gutsy play, strong leadership and classy demeanor during his time as a Jet (and Dolphin). Best of luck to you Chad. Like Pennington, Henne is smart and accurate, but he does posses a stronger arm so the Dolphins just may take a few more shots downfield once they take the restraints off the former Wolverine. Ted Ginn has been a tremendous disappointment to Dolphin’s fans and his fantasy owners, and the chances of a quick turnaround with a “rookie” QB are slim, but there is hope that he will be used in deeper routes.

Buffalo’s passing defense has been torched for 804 yards and 4 TDs through two games this season, but surprisingly held Drew Brees in check last week. In reality though, the Saints play calling held Drew Brees in check as Sean Payton chose to exploit Buffalo’s game plan to consistently drop 7 players into coverage clogging passing lanes, by running Lynell Hamilton, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush up the gut of the defense.

Running Game Thoughts: The conservative play calling that saw QB Chad Pennington often on the sideline in favor of Ronnie Brown in his place to run the “Wild Cat” offense should move further into conservative mode with Henne under center. Expect Ronnie Brown to be featured even more in the offensive scheme and Ricky Williams to pick up any slack. Miami has a massive o-line that has gelled into as fine a unit as you’ll find in the NFL so they have the ability to “win ugly”. While there may not be much winning, expect the “ugly” to increase.

The Bills run defense had gone untested for the most part the first two weeks, due to the aforementioned sieve of a pass defense. That quickly changed in Week 3 when the New Orleans Saints ran for 222 yards and 3 TDs against them. The Saints took advantage of the Bills scheme to stop their passing attack – an advantage that Miami will not have. Nevertheless expect Miami to exploit the Bills on the ground in what may be a rainy Miami afternoon.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 150 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 35 yds receiving
Greg Camarillo: 5 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 35 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown: 100 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 40 yds rushing

Prediction: Dolphins 17 Bills 14

Buccaneers @ Redskins (Marcoccio)

Josh Johnson/ Cadillac Williams/Derek Ward
Michael Clayton/Maurice Stovall/Kellen Winslow, Jr. (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -16.7%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.5%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.1%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -38.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bucs passing game was so ugly last week against a banged up Giants secondary, that changes were made. Notably, Byron Leftwhich who was signed this offseason and won the starting job in camp, will be replaced by second year QB Josh Johnson. Leftwhich performed reasonably well during the first two games despite Tampa’s best WR Antonio Bryant being banged up with knee issues. Bryant is likely to miss this week’s contest as well leaving the WR duties to semi-resurrected Michael Clayton and the underachieving Maurice Stovall. Kellen Winslow, Jr. has been the only consistent weapon in the passing game, but his owners cannot be happy about the switch to the raw Johnson. Nothing to see here, move along.

Washington’s pass defense is currently ranked 11th in the NFL – as the unit has allowed 198 ypg and 3 TDs. Despite landing prize free-agent Albert Haynesworth, the Redskins still can’t generate much pressure on opposing passers (only 4 sacks on the season). To make matters worse Haynesworth is now banged up a little and may miss this game. The Skins do have talented CBs in Carlos Rodgers and Fred Smoot who should be able to handle the underwhelming wide-outs of Tampa Bay so perhaps they will be able to design some blitz packages in order to put some additional pressure on the young QB they face this week.

Running Game Thoughts: After an remarkable comeback, Cadillac Williams is once again dinged, but at least his injuries are not as bad as in the past. He played sparingly last week but should be more available this week. Free agent acquisition Derrick Ward has looked good at times, but disappeared against his former team in Week 3. The Bucs were not able to generate one first down last week until late in the second half and must do a better job of gaining yards on first and second down in they stand a chance to pull this game out.

Washington which was very quietly an extremely tough run defense in 2008 (finishing 8th in yards allowed with 95.4 yards per game and only allowing 12 rushing TDs), has played below average so far this year. They are allowing 127.1 ypg, but have at least kept opposing backs from scoring, having only allowed 1 rushing TD in 2009. Tampa will try and protect its young QB by running the ball, but the Skins should be up to the task in this one as they should be able to move LaRon Landry up into run support extensively with little threat of the passing game beating them.

Projections:
Josh Johnson: 135 yds passing, 1 Int. / 40 yds rushing
Maurice Stoval: 20 yds receiving
Michael Clayton: 30 yds receiving
Kellen Winslow: 55 yds receiving
Cadillac Williams: 45 yds rushing
Derrick Ward: 55 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/ Clinton Portis
Santana Moss/Malcolm Kelly/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley (vs. TB)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +25%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +13.4%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +68.3%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -10.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell had his best statistical game of the season in Week 3 (340-2-1), but still couldn’t lead his team to a win over a team that had lost 19 straight games. He has showed some signs of putting things together this season, but the writing seems to be on the wall that his time in Washington will be a thing of the past starting in 2010. Santana Moss continued to show why he constantly frustrates his fantasy owners as he grabbed 10 balls and scored a TD against Detroit, when many owners likely decided to bench him coming off of two very poor efforts. It’s a mystery why he lacks consistency, but he is what he is at this point in his career.

The once proud Tampa Bay pass defense which famously laid the groundwork for the Cover 2 defense that has been emulated by many other teams, is now a joke. They rank behind every team in the league, outside of Houston, in pass defense. The Bucs allow 245 passing yards per game and have given up 7 passing TDs on the season. The number listed above show that Santana Moss and perhaps even Jason Campbell should be great starts this week, however it’s hard to have much faith in the Jim Zorn offence – which seems to be out of synch most series.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis struggled last week again, after every sign showed he should have been a great fantasy start. Portis isn’t as old as many people seem to think he is, but he has seen a ridiculously high workload during his career and perhaps it finally is catching up with him. Portis looks sluggish and isn’t breaking many tackles. He has also removed himself from games with what would appear to be minor injuries. There is some speculation that he really dislikes Jim Zorn so perhaps his motivation is lacking (to put in the best possible light). This is another “green light” matchup for Portis, but its getting hard to seriously recommend him. If you own him, give him another chance. If he fails again sell low, because his value may continue to stay low and perhaps even decline to nothing.

The Bucs, incredibly, are almost as bad against the run as they are against the pass. They have allowed 187.3 ypg and 2 TDs on the ground this season. It’s going to be a long while before this team gets things turned around – and they may just challenge Cleveland for the right to choose first in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 220 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 20 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Malcolm Kelly: 35 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 60 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Clinton Portis: 75 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Redskins 14 Buccaneers 3

Lions @ Bears (Mack)

Matt Stafford / Kevin Smith / Maurice Morris
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Brandon Pettigrew (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.5%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.0%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.2%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -31.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: After a not-so-glamorous start to his NFL career, rookie Matt Stafford finally had a game worthy of the top overall draft pick that he was. Stafford threw for 241 yards and a score last week in a game at home against the poorly-coached Redskins. More importantly, he was turnover-free. Surprisingly, it appears the once-feared Chicago defense is susceptible to the passing game. Seneca Wallace of all people threw for 261 yards last week.

Calvin Johnson entered the season as a consensus top 5 WR but has played like anything but so far. There are WRs such as Davone Bess, Justin Gage and Andre Caldwell that have more receptions than Johnson. That can’t last if Stafford is to become a serviceable player in 2009. Stafford has the ability to put up comparable numbers to Seneca Wallace from last week, which should put Johnson on the fantasy map this week. Predictably, no other receiving option is even worth considering on the Lions beyond Johnson. Johnson is an every-week starter, so start him and hope the rookie QB takes another step forward in his development.

Running Game Thoughts: Uh oh. It looks like we have another head coach intent on playing shenanigans with the injury report. Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz calls RB Kevin Smith a game-time decision and says the media should get used to non-committal statements from him regarding players’ injuries and their availability for the next game. Smith banged up a shoulder last week as well as tweaked a knee. His availability will be in question all week. Word out of Detroit is he may give it a try. There is absolutely no one behind him, so if he doesn’t play, the running game for the Lions could be a mess.

If he does play, it could be a risky proposition for you. His carries could go to backup Maurice Morris. If, however, Smith is healthy and plays a significant number of snaps, he could be in for a productive game. Remember, LB Brian Urlacher is out for the year, and fellow LBs Lance Briggs, Piso Tinoisamoa and Hunter Hillenmeyer all missed practice on Wednesday. DE Alex Brown also sat out. Bottom line: Chicago’s defense could be missing some key components on Sunday, meaning Smith could do some damage. He’d be the only play for Detroit, but Morris is better left on the waiver wire for now. I say Smith gives it a shot but sees spot duty throughout the game, thus making him useless in fantasy this week.

Projections:
Matt Stafford – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Kevin Smith – 25 yards rushing / 15 yards rec.
Maurice Morris – 35 yards rushing / 30 yards rec.
Calvin Johnson – 70 yards / 1 TD
Bryant Johnson – 45 yards rec.
Brandon Pettigrew – 35 yards rec.

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Devin Hester / Earl Bennett / Greg Olsen (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +54.7%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +17.4%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +53.1%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +33.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: After an awful debut week one in which he threw one TD and four picks, Jay Cutler has turned in worthy fantasy performances the last two weeks. A total of five scoring tosses against only one INT against Pittsburgh and Seattle takes the edge off a bit of those Bears fans who bellyached after the first game. Cutler is settling in nicely, and he will battle Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers for the title of Best QB In The NFC North all season.

Cutler’s hot streak should continue against Detroit. The Lions have no big play player in the secondary and their pass rush lacks a consistently threat. Cutler should have all day to throw, finding both Devin Hester and Earl Bennett for nice gains. Hester may have a long catch-and-run reception in this game, and Bennett could have his best day as a pro. Detroit’s LB corps is vastly improved over last season, but they’ll still have their hands full with athletic TE Greg Olsen. He’s gotten off to somewhat of a slow start, but he will get on track one of these weeks. This week could be it. This game should be the best game of the year so far for the Bears’ passing game.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m sure those who used a top-5 draft pick on Matt Forte must have a flat forehead by now from banging against the wall during the first three weeks. Some have questioned why he’s not more involved in the passing game, but his 11 receptions are only two off from where he was this time last year. Perhaps the biggest concern of those who own Forte is his paltry 2.5 yards per carry. Granted, his 3.9 yards per carry in 2008 was not a dynamic thing of beauty, but most thought he’d be further along now than he is.

It’s not all Forte’s fault, though. Chicago’s O-line hasn’t played well, and coupled with Detroit’s surprisingly good play so far against the run, Forte could struggle once again this week. Head coach Lovie Smith indicated earlier in the week that the Bears are and always will be a run-first team. But he said if relying on the pass helps them win games, he will do that. Expect another mediocre game on the ground from Forte, but he could make up for it in the passing game, however.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 320 yards / 2 TDs
Matt Forte – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 35 yards rec.
Earl Bennett – 120 yards
Devin Hester – 85 yards / 1 TD
Greg Olsen – 65 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Chicago 27, Detroit 16

Bengals @ Browns (Mack)

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Andre Caldwell / Laveranues Coles / Daniel Coats (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -12.2%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +93.6%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.2%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -27.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer has been nothing special this year, throwing four TDs and four INTs so far, but he’s one flucky Brandon Stokely TD reception from leading his team to a 3-0 start. His shaky start against Pittsburgh last week didn’t faze him; he was money at the end when it counted most. Chad Ochocinco and Andre Caldwell should find openings in the Browns’ secondary, while the struggling Laveranues Coles works the underneath routes. Cleveland hasn’t stopped anybody all year, so look for Palmer and his weapons to have their way with the Brownies.

Cleveland has allowed a league-worst 31.7 points per game, and there’s no reason why the Bengals shouldn’t come close to that figure. Palmer has yet to put together a solid game in all facets; that will change this week. Cincy plays Baltimore next week, so they understand the importance of going into that game primed to fight for AFC North supremacy. But get all your Bengals’ passing/receiving players in your line-up, less Laveranues Coles. I’m not sure what his deal is, but he’s certainly been a major disappointment so far. But Palmer, Ochocinco and Caldwell should all be in your lineup. And don’t worry about Daniel Coats. The Bengals have never thrown much to the TE during Palmer’s reign.

Running Game Thoughts: Bravo to Cedric Benson. He’s not on any of my teams, but as a sports fan, I’m happy for him. He’s come back strong after the Bears (and rightfully so) threw him on the scrap heap. Benson has turned himself into a force in the NFL as well as the fantasy world. His 4.4 ypc is the best of his career. The Bengals have relied on him as the bell cow in the offense, and he’s delivered solid numbers worthy of a solid RB2 fantasy back. Forget about Benson having any production through the air. He is what he is: a between-the-tackles, physical veteran who’s turned his career around.

I think the Bengals play keep-away in this game. I think they get up early and put the rock in Benson’s hands so he can milk the clock. Consequently, he could get match the 29 carries he got at Green Bay in week two. If that occurs, Benson will certainly solidify himself as a bona fide RB2 who’s “startable” against most any opponent. But as it relates to week three, start him and watch the points rack up.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 210 yards / 2 TDs
Cedric Benson – 130 yards / 1 TD
Chad Ochocinco – 90 yards / 1 TD
Andre Caldwell – 65 yards / 1 TD
Laveranues Coles – 35 yards
Daniel Coats – 15 yards

Derek Anderson / Jerome Harrison
Braylon Edwards / Josh Cribbs / Mike Furrey / Robert Royal (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.4%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -27.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +9.8%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -17.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Is it wrong that I snicker to myself while quietly enjoying the hot mess that is the Cleveland Browns? If I am, oh well. I still can’t figure out why the Browns were so hot on Eric Mangini. Listen, I’m a huge Braylon Edwards fan. His mom grew up across the street from me in Detroit, so I always root for Edwards. But what has transpired in Cleveland over the last 12 months or so makes us in Detroit feel like we’re not alone in the bottom of the NFL bucket. Now comes word that the “genius” Mangini benches Brady Quinn for Derek Anderson. Unbelievable.

Simply put, stay away from all Browns until further notice. This thing stinks and seems to get more pungent with each passing minute. This team has only one receiving TD through three games. ONE! Ouch. Listen, if your receivers are battling injuries or you’re thin with the bye week, put Edwards in your line-up if you dare. Everyone else on this team must be avoided like the plague.

Running Game Thoughts: RB Jamal Lewis’ availability for Sunday remains in doubt, as he missed practice on Wednesday with the same hamstring injury that kept him out of last week’s game. But really, does it make any difference if he plays or not? This team’s running game stunk with him and it’s stinking without him. Jerome Harrison, to his credit, did as much as he could last week. He led the team in both rushing and receiving, providing this anemic offense with the only receiving threat out of the backfield.

Harrison still got 16 carries last week, in spite of a 34-3 dismantling at the hands of the Ravens. That tells me that the “genius” is committed to the run under any and all circumstances. Using that logic, whoever gets the start in the backfield stands to get significant opportunities to produce. Whether they will remains to be seen. But whether it’s Harrison or Lewis, keep him on your bench where he belongs.

Projections:
Derek Anderson – 165 yards / 1 TDs / 2 INTs
Jerome Harrison – 55 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Braylon Edwards – 65 yards
Josh Cribbs – 30 yards / 1 TD
Mike Furrey – 20 yards
Robert Royal – 15 yards

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 10

Packers @ Vikings (Mack)

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / Donald Lee (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -15.7%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -41.2%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -50.4%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +84.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers has been solid—if unspectacular—through the first three games of the season. Four TDs and zero INTs are great building blocks for establishing a solid fantasy roster. All the preseason talk about him being an MVP candidate was a bit premature I think, but nonetheless Rodgers has been the kind of fantasy QB his owners can rely on to NOT make the big mistakes in crucial times of games.

Donald Driver has really stepped up his game. With Greg Jennings getting off to a slow start and nursing a few minor bumps and bruises, the veteran Driver continues to show why he’s one of the top complementary WRs in the NFL. And from a fantasy standpoint, Driver’s been the more reliable of the two, even though he was drafted several rounds after Jennings. This is going to be a high-scoring affair on Monday night, so be sure to get all your Packers in your line-up. Even Donald Lee can be a sneaky start this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant is one of those players who won’t show up on ESPN highlights with dazzling runs that showcase his superb athleticism. No, he’s not that kind of player. Rather, his workman-like style may be boring to watch, but it’s proven quite effective since he was named the starter in 2007. Minnesota’s run defense has a long-standing reputation as one of the league’s best, but they’re currently ranked 12th against the run. That’s not horrible by any measure; just not what we’re accustomed to seeing.

As good as Grant has been this year as a RB2, he’d certainly be more of a factor if he was utilized in the passing game. He has only five receptions so far this year, and only 53 since the start of 2007. He is what he is, and for that we can’t really complain. I’d think that Green Bay’s plan would be to try and eat the clock with a heavy dose of runs in an attempt to keep Adrian Peterson on the sideline. Peterson has gone off on the Packers in the past and they may not want that to happen on national television. Grant is a nice play as a RB2; while he may not give you jaw-dropping numbers, he should at least hold up his end of the bargain.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 220 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Ryan Grant – 70 yards
Donald Driver – 110 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 60 yards / 1 TD
Donald Lee – 35 yards

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor
Bernard Berrian / Percy Harvin / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +22.1%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -26.6%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +19.7%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre says revenge will not play a role in any type of added motivation this week when he goes up against his former team. Um, yeah right. We all know Favre will try to stick it to ‘em on Monday Night Football and attempt to show them he should still be the starter for the Packers. But whatever gets him going this week, chances are he will have a very good game. Now, we can’t forget that he has the best RB in the game behind him, but Favre will still get his opportunities to shine.

Here’s the biggest shocker regarding the Vikings’ passing game. No player on the roster has a per-catch average higher than Sidney Rice’s 11.3 yards per reception. This low-risk, controlled passing attack keeps Favre’s turnovers to a minimum while ensuring Peterson remains the focal point of the offense. That doesn’t bode well for those Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian owners, but Peterson owners rejoice every week. Harvin, however, is the most reliable (and dangerous) receiving threat. He could be a starter in deeper leagues.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m sure when Peterson owners nabbed him with the top overall pick, they salivated at the sight of his first three opponents: Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco—three teams that normally struggle on defense. Well, other than the embarrassment he put on Cleveland, he was handled quite nicely by Detroit and ‘Frisco, running for 92 yards and 85 yards, respectively. Here’s what that means: he could potentially have a Cleveland-type game on Monday night. Only once in his brilliant career has he been held under 100 yards rushing in three straight games. Expect the usual AP on MNF.

Chester Taylor hasn’t been much in the running game, but his 15 receptions out of the backfield lead the team. That plays directly into the short, controlled passing game that so far has been so effective for Minnesota. Taylor has yet to score, so he’s best used in PPR leagues.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 180 yards / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson – 145 yards / 2 TDs
Chester Taylor – 15 yards rushing / 45 yards rec.
Percy Harvin – 65 yards rec.
Bernard Berrian – 40 yards rec.
Visanthe Shiancoe – 20 yards rec.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Green Bay 20

Chargers @ Steelers (Mack)

Philip Rivers / Darren Sproles / LaDainian Tomlinson
Vincent Jackson / Chris Chambers / Antonio Gates (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -10.7%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -39.6%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +10.7%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The slow decline of RB LaDainian Tomlinson has ushered in a new offensive philosophy in San Diego. The attack is now built around the leadership and right arm of the fiery Phillip Rivers. Rivers has responded so far, with his career year in 2008 and his league-leading 991 passing yards so far in 2009. He’s been a bit careless with the ball at times this year, but he remains one of the best fantasy QBs around.

In a year’s time, Vincent Jackson has morphed from waiver wire fodder in mid-2008 to bona fide WR1 the first quarter of 2009. His size and athleticism have been too much for defensive backs. It doesn’t matter if the Chargers travel to Pittsburgh this week; Jackson has made himself a must-start every week. Antonio Gates remains steady and should always be in your line-up. Don’t let the opponent scare you. Play Rivers, Jackson and Gates with confidence.

Running Game Thoughts: Much like Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes before him, Tomlinson has begun his descent into fantasy obscurity. Granted, his fall hasn’t been as abrupt as the others, but the writing’s on the wall that spells out the end of LT’s supremacy in fantasy football. Darren Sproles has replaced Tomlinson during his absence, but beyond a nice run-and-catch against Baltimore, Sproles’ production has been nothing special.

Apparently LT returned to full practice this week, which means he has a good chance to play. But considering he’s coming off a two week injury, not to mention his obvious decline in play, coupled with who the opponent is, LT’s place should remain on the bench for now. Until or unless he shows anything of any significance in the near future, that’s where he should remain. The Chargers no longer rely heavily on him, and sadly at this point, neither should fantasy owners.

Projections:
Philip Rivers – 220 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
LaDainian Tomlinson – 55 yards
Vincent Jackson – 110 yards
Chris Chambers – 45 yards
Antonio Gates – 55 yards / 1 TD

Ben Roethlisberger / Mewelde Moore / Willie Parker
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Heath Miller (vs. San Diego)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -24.7%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +39.3%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -32.0%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -18.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Here’s the good news: Ben Roethlisberger has thrown a TD in each of the Steelers’ first three games. Here’s the bad news: Big Ben has thrown an interception in each of the Steelers’ first three games. And so it goes for Roethlisberger. His yardage totals have been nice, but his performances have been marred by the costly mistakes during games. And another thing that has derailed the Steelers’ passing game is their lack of a running game. They’ve had 42 more called passing plays than running plays. Until that ratio gets back to at least equal, Big Ben’s numbers will continue to suffer.

Hines Ward leads the team with 18 receptions, but there are three others with at least 12 catches. Santonio Holmes, I believe, will lead the team in every receiving category when it’s all said and done. But after Holmes’ week one explosion, he’s stunk up the joint ever since, including last week’s one-catch-for-18-yards gem. You mustn’t let that deter you from starting him, however. Both he and Ward, along with TE Heath Miller, are viable starting options this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Most fantasy experts heading into this season had Willie Parker ranked as a RB3. Yeah, if Parker owners were so lucky. Parker has been nothing short of disappointing so far. And to make matters worse, he’s now battling a toe injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If he sits out, Mewelde Moore could see a boost in interest from fantasy owners. If you recall, Moore played well late last season when both Parker and Rashard Mendenhall (remember him?) were injured.

The Chargers have surrendered at least 130 yards rushing in each game this year, so there are opportunities for production against them. Maybe Pittsburgh gets back to the bruising running game that has made them so successful while exploiting an obvious weakness in San Diego’s defense. Whether they now have the horses to utilize such a game plan, however, is the bigger concern. I say Parker sits out, or is at least very limited with his toe injury if he does play. Meanwhile, Moore should see the bulk of the action and be a nice sleeper pick heading into week 4.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 220 yards / 2 TD / 1 INT
Mewelde Moore – 70 yards
Willie Parker – 20 yards
Santonio Holmes – 80 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 65 yards
Heath Miller – 50 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, San Diego 13

Giants @ Chiefs (Eakin)

Eli Manning/Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Kevin Boss/
Brandon Jacobs/Ahmed Bradshaw (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +18.5%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +31.0%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -0.7%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +37.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The real question is not how effective NY can be throwing it, but rather how much they will need to. The Giants pass attack has certainly exceeded expectations with the emergence of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Incidentally, I think Super Mario has reached the pinnacle of his value this year with both Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon are on the mend. If I’m a Manningham owner, I shop him around to see what people will give up. Back to the game, I think the Tamba Bay game last week provides a reasonable model of how to project the Giants in a rout, and rout is what this will be. Eli Manning only threw for 161 yards in their 24-0 breeze in Tampa. The Giants should get a lead sooner rather than later and will be content to grind out the victory on the ground.

The Chiefs may need to change their approach a bit on defense. They are not getting much pressure out of their base 3-4 package. They are not a big blitzing team but Eli is too talented to allow comfort in the pocket. The Chiefs only hope is to win the turnover battle, which is tough versus a team that takes care of the ball. Blitzing Eli is their best chance of forcing a mistake or two.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs is looking like a good play with Ahmed Bradshaw nursing a sore ankle against a soft run defense and a big lead early. Bradshaw should still play but we might also see Danny Ware or Gartrell Johnson get some garbage time opportunity. The G-Men are looking for more out of their ground attack with a slow start to the year. They will get back to their roots against a KC defense that ranks sixth worst against the run through three games.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 200 yds/2 TD
Steve Smith: 80 yds/1 TD
Mario Manningham: 55 yds
Kevin Boss: 40 yds/1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 90 yds rushing/1 TD
Ahmed Bradshaw: 40 yds rushing/30 yds rec/1 TD

Matt Cassel/Mark Bradley/Bobby Wade/Dwayne Bowe/
Larry Johnson/Jamaal Charles (vs. GB)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -31.9%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -14.1%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -66.6%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +15.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Frustration continues to mount over Matt Cassel inability or perhaps unwillingness to stretch the field with vertical passing. It’s hard to argue given his JaMarcus Russell-like 90 yds passing versus Philly last week. Between top target Dwayne Bowes hamstring issues and Cassel’s knee, it’s still a little too early to make definitive judgments, but they paid an awful lot of coin for a Cassel and things will get heated if he doesn’t progress. This certainly doesn’t appear to be the week to remedy his woes. Bowe is questionable to play, and I’m not sure this is a game you want run him out there and risk further setback. Without Bowe, the Chiefs have no deep threat. With him, the Chiefs pass protection has little chance slowing the pass rush up long enough for Cassel to look downfield. Expect another game of Cassel quick pitches to Wade, Bradley, and Charles out of the backfield.

Even with Justin Tuck questionable, the G-Men should get all the pressure they need to keep Cassel in check. LT Brandon Albert will struggle to keep Osi Umenyiora blocked. Albert has struggled against Trent Cole and Greg Ellis already, and Umenyiora is more talented. Mathias Kiwanuka also provides a great rush option off the outside. The Giants loss of S Kenny Phillips hurts but their secondary is still talented. CB Corey Webster is quietly earning the reputation as one of league’s elite cover corners.

Running Game Thoughts: Scouts analyzing Larry Johnson claim he was a shell of himself last week. Consensus is that his legs are dead. His 2.5 yards per carry for the year support that opinion. Teammate Jamaal Charles is averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per carry so it’s not just the offensive line woes. Charles is more of a scat back, which might be what is keeping him from the feature back role. At some point, performance may dictate a change in roles. Neither back should be starting for you this week but Charles will be more of a factor when the Chiefs start passing to play catch-up.

The Giants completely shut down the Bucs rush attack last week. The Bucs have a better O-line and set of RBs than the Chiefs do. I don’t think the Chiefs will get anything going here, especially when they get behind by a couple possessions.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 190 yd/1 INT
Bobby Wade: 40 yds
Dwayne Bowe: 40 yds
Sean Ryan: 30 yds
Larry Johnson: 40 yds rushing/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 30 yds rushing/40 yds rec

Prediction: Giants 27 Chiefs 10

Rams @ 49ers (Eakin)

Kyle Boller/Donnie Avery/Keenan Burton/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +4.7%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -9.6%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +17.6%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -68.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: I actually like Boller as a slight upgrade over Bulger; slight I said! Here’s the thing. Bulger suffers from David Carr-itus. He’s been a punching bag for too long and is forever gun shy. I expect Boller sees this as his last chance, will be a little more aggressive, and has a better arm to find speedy Donnie Avery deep. In fact, Boller already has two TDs to Bulger’s one in limited action. The loss of Laurent Robinson hurts. He was their big target WR. I mean that literally and figuratively. Keenan Burton has some talent and could step in nicely to pick up where Robinson left off. Steven Jackson may also get increased looks as a receiver as well.

The Niner’s will be out for blood after losing on the last play in Minnesota. The entire Rams team may serve as their punching bag. DC Greg Manusky was not shy earlier this week stating he intends to throw the kitchen sink at rookie T Jason Smith. “…to see how good he is…” Sounds like something out of a Rex Ryan presser. The advantage of their 3-4 scheme is the flexibility to overload one side with LBs to create pressure. It will be critical for Boller to recognize these situations during the pre-snap and make adjustments at the line.

Running Game Thoughts: Jackson is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per carry despite defenses having little else to focus on. One would assume he will eventually get within 4.8 yards of the end zone, thus being able to score a touchdown this year. The Niner’s are a tough physical team, but offensive dynamo they are not, and they will be without Frank Gore. What am I driving at? They are the type of team the Rams can stay close too, allowing Jackson to get plenty of touches and not have to abandon the run.

A great matchup to watch is the MLBs Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes v. RB Steven Jackson. The formidable duo will be responsible for controlling Jackson, and thus controlling the outcome. This game looks like a fantasy-un-friendly low scoring affair.

Projections:
Kyle Boller: 200 yds/1 TDs/2 INT
Donnie Avery: 70 yds/1 TD
Keenan Burton: 35 yds
Randy McMichael: 20 yds
Steven Jackson: 90 yds rushing/25 rec/1 TD

Shaun Hill/Isaac Bruce/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis/
Glenn Coffee (vs. CHI)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +31.5%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +6.0%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +9.9%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +46.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Shaun Hill continues his efficient play. If Glenn Coffee can’t get it going, Hill may have a better than average day. He and TE Vernon Davis have a nice connection going. Davis provides a big, safe target, and creates matchup problems with his speed. He leads the team in receiving catches, yards, and scoring. Add in the Rams inability to cover TEs and you get a fantasy delight. In other news, we found a pulse on Josh Morgan last week. The preseason sleeper candidate relegated to number three on Shaun Hill’s target list posted 4 catches for 47 yards last week. Not a huge day but he out produced Isaac Bruce for the first time. Something worth watching moving forward.

Running Game Thoughts: I plan to write this entire section without any Coffee puns if that’s o.k. with everyone. I think if you read much in the way of fantasy news, you’ve had “your fill”. As you may have heard, Frank Gore is out for three weeks, possibly more, and preseason sensation Glenn Coffee must be “percolating” over his big opportunity. We will see if he can provide the same “burst of energy”, Gore has. Although unproven, he will get lots of touches, as the Niner’s do not plan to change their game plan of “grinding” their way to victory. The match-up against a weak Rams run defense seems “tasty” but Coffee is no Frank Gore so temper your expectations say to a “medium roast”. Ok so I lied about the puns in hopes we can put them all to rest for now at least until all the “Coffee Roasts the Rams” headlines come out on Monday.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 190 yds/1 TDs
Isaac Bruce: 50 yds
Josh Morgan: 50 yds
Vernon Davis: 60 yds/1 TD
Glenn Coffee: 75 yds rushing/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 24 St. Louis 20

Cowboys @ Broncos (Eakin)

Tony Romo/Roy Williams/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Marion Barber/Tashard Choice (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -52.3%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -37.2%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -44.4%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -77.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Romo looked a little gun shy on Monday versus Carolina. Who can blame him after the tidal wave of criticism for his decision-making? Dallas will continue their conservative approach as long as they are afforded the luxury. Don’t expect them to come out challenging a Bronco secondary with Brian Dawkins, Andre Goodman, and Champ Bailey. Roy Williams has not inspired much confidence at this point. He doesn’t run good short routes, making him somewhat predictable on fade and post routes. He has great height but he fails to come down with the jump balls. They need Crayton or Austin to develop or may look to the draft for a replacement. The Dallas aerial weapon of choice will continue to be TE Jason Witten. He’s catching his 6-8 balls a game but his yards per catch has dropped from 11.75 in 2008 to 9.5 this year. With the loss of T.O. I really expected more.

The Denver defense has played well against some mediocre teams. I tend to believe in their pass defense but want to see more against the run. Elvis Dumervil is their MVP so far. He gets great pressure off the edge. His speed will be a big pass protection problem for the bullishly large but slow Dallas O-Line.

Running Game Thoughts: Dallas leads the NFL is rushing yards and attempts. They are built to run with their size and dynamic three-headed RB committee. They will be down to one and half heads this week. Felix Jones is out with a PCL sprain. They are saying two weeks but I’ve heard rumors that it's a bit optimistic. Marion Barber is nursing a quad strain and has been limited in practice. He and Jerry Jones both are saying he will play for what it’s worth. All this makes Tashard Choice a potential one-week wonder. He has been very good in spot duty. With Jones out the Cowboys need to be safe with Barber so even if he plays, Choice should still get more touches. Despite Denver’s good run defense ranking, the Cowboys present a big challenge. They have the size to expose a suspect Bronco defensive line. Choice will have a big day, potentially stealing all the Glenn Coffee headline pun potential.

Predictions:
Tony Romo: 230 yds/1 TDs
Roy Williams: 50 yds
Patrick Crayton: 55 yds
Jason Witten: 75 yds/1 TD
Tashard Choice: 100 yds/30 rec/1 TD
Marion Barber: 35 yds/15 rec/1 TD

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Daniel Graham
Darren McFadden/Michael Bush (vs. DEN)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +6.8%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -12.4%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +28.6%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +28.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite Orton’s pedestrian fantasy ranking it is tough to criticize him too much. He is among the top of the league in QB rating and has zero turnovers. He is safe for 240 yds and a TD if nothing else. Brandon Marshall is finally getting more opportunity but still trails Brandon Stokely and Jabar Gaffney in yardage. His 10.7 yards per catch shows that he is mostly be limited to possession routes so far but he makes an excellent red zone threat and caught his first TD last week. He and Orton may be getting on the same page. Eddie Royal is still not on that page. They continue to use him on the outside rather than the slot where he excelled at last year. Keep him on the bench for now.

The Cowboys are average at best against the pass. The key for them against the Broncos will be tackling. The Broncos don’t challenge teams deep so Dallas must tackle well to keep short gains from becoming long ones. They have struggles with tackling in the past. Terrence Newman is their big play guy. He will match-up with Marshall. He jumped a slant on Monday night to seal a victory but Delhomme and Orton are oil and water in the turnover comparison. Dallas needs more pressure from DeMarcus Ware. He hasn’t got the sack dance going yet. He will be matched up on against two of the game’s best offensive tackles so pressure may need to come up the middle form Jay Ratliff or stunting Ware.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver has a nice thing going with the combo of Moreno and Buckhalter. Buckhalter keeps getting weaned carries yet continues to out produce the rookie. Dallas is 17th in RB FPTs allowed while Denver is 7th in RB FPTs scored. Dallas has faced some of the league’s best RBs to date so we will get a good idea where the Denver run game is. Dallas has been beaten on the edges where Denver excels. Ware cannot over commit to the QB on his side because MLB Keith Brookings lacks the speed to get to the corner before the fast Denver backs. The Cowboys may bring help in from safety if since Denver doesn’t pose much of a deep threat.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 230 yds
Brandon Marshall: 60 yds
Eddie Royal: 30 yds
Daniel Graham: 25 yds
Correll Buckhalter: 60 yds rushing/35 yds rec/1 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 80 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Dallas 24 Denver 20

Raiders @ Texans (Kilroy)

JaMarcus Russell / Darren McFadden
Michael Bush / Louis Murphy / Zach Miller (vs. Houston)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.3%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +97.4%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.8%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -27.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Raiders air attack is the worst in the league. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell has completed just 31 of his 75 attempts (41.3%) and the Oakland offense averages an NFL low 119.7 passing yards per game. Going against a Houston defensive unit that allows just over 231 yards through the air per contest, Russell and his receivers should fair better than they have been, but don’t expect much. It’s going to take more than a match-up against the Texans for Russell to right his passing woes.

Running Game Thoughts: Houston’s defense continues to struggle mightily against the run. In Week 1 against the Jets they allowed Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to combine for 167 yards and 2 scores against them. The following week they failed to contain Tennessee’s Chris Johnson as he ran for 2 touchdowns and 197 yards. Last Sunday it was Maurice Jones-Drew that proved to be a source of frustration for the Texans. He carried 23 times for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns of his own.

The Oakland tandem of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush hasn’t been as destructive as expected to this point in the season, but they should find success against Houston. As long as the Raiders can keep the game within reach throughout most of this outing, expect McFadden and Bush to total 100 plus yards on the ground with a touchdown or two split between them.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell – 190 yards passing / 0 TDs
Darren McFadden – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Michael Bush – 55 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Louis Murphy – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Zach Miller – 80 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Matt Schaub / Steve Slaton
Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / Owen Daniels (vs. Oakland)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -13.6%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +27.6%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.1%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -37.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: After a poor start to the season against the Jets, Matt Schaub has gotten into rhythm during his last two outings. Playing against the Titans and Jaguars during that span Schaub has thrown for 657 yards, with 7 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. Oakland’s defense is currently holding opponents to just 211 passing yards a game against them, but that number is somewhat skewed when taking into account their last two contests were against the likes of Kansas City and Denver - two offenses that aren’t exactly the standard to measure your defense against.

In Oakland’s Week 1 opener against the more established offense of the San Diego Chargers, Philip Rivers threw for 252 yards and a score while completing 66% of his attempts. Expect Matt Schaub to post similar numbers this Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: Houston’s rushing attack ranks 30th in the league with an average of 70.7 yards per game produced on the ground. While that number is concerning, it’s worth keeping in mind they have faced two of the tougher run stopping units in the league during their first two weeks of the season (the Jets in Week 1 and the Titans in Week 2).

Against the somewhat softer run defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars last week the Texans managed to have their first bit of success on the ground. Steve Slaton didn’t crack the 100-yard mark or score a touchdown, but he did produce 76 yards on just 12 carries (6.3 ypc). He also added 37 more yards on 3 receptions.

As the Texans set to face a Raiders unit currently allowing 155 yards rushing per game against them, expect Slaton’s success last Sunday to carry over into this week. The fact Houston’s air attack is taking off will only serve to benefit Slaton as the season progresses.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 250 yards passing / 2 TDs
Steve Slaton – 100 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Andre Johnson – 100 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Owen Daniels – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Houston 27, Oakland 17

Seahawks @ Colts (Kilroy)

Seneca Wallace / Julius Jones
T.J. Houshmanzadeh / Nate Burleson / John Carlson (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -31.2%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +10.6%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.4%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -79.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: With starter Matt Hasselbeck still suffering from a broken rib, back-up quarterback Seneca Wallace will make his second straight start for the Seahawks. In his first start of the season last week against the Bears, Wallace put up 261 yards passing, a touchdown, and an interception – pretty good statistics against a defensive unit currently holding opponents to under 200 passing yards per game. The Colts meanwhile rank among the Top Ten pass defenses in the league, limiting their opponents to an average of 192.3 yards through the air.

Although Wallace posted noteworthy numbers last Sunday, I wouldn’t expect him to do anymore than that this week. This will be his first start on the road against a Colts unit that has allowed only 1 touchdown pass through the first three games. Seattle will stand a much better chance against Indianapolis if they can get Julius Jones going on the ground.

Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones is off to a surprising start this season, averaging just under five yards per carry on his 46 attempts. He’s also caught 8 passes for 55 yards and 2 scores – giving him three straight games with a touchdown. In the Colts he faces an opponent that has yielded 125.7 yards rushing per game through 3 weeks. As long as the Seahawks don’t find themselves trailing by two scores for most of this contest, Jones should have another productive outing.

Projections:
Seneca Wallace – 215 yards passing / 1 TD
Julius Jones – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
T.J. Houshmanzadeh – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Nate Burleson – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Johns Carlson – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Dallas Clark (vs. Seattle)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -22.3%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +8.5%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -19.0%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -12.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Seattle’s pass defense ranks 7th in the league with an average of 175.3 yards passing allowed per game. The number is a bit misleading however once you look at the opponents they have faced (STL, SF, CHI). Last week’s contest against Chicago is the only game in which one would expect Seattle to allow over 200 yards passing – and they did. Jay Cutler carved through the Seahawks secondary as he completed 21 of 27 attempts (77.8%) for 247 yards and 3 scores.

Peyton Manning has begun the season with three straight 300-yard outings. He’s also tossed 7 touchdown passes. If the Bears passing game was able to achieve the results they had last week against Seattle, Peyton Manning and the Colts will be able to do the same.

Running Game Thoughts: Indianapolis’ rushing duo of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown has been productive, but Indianapolis is still only averaging 86.0 yards per game on the ground at 3.5 yards per carry. They will be facing a Seahawks defense however that is giving up an average of 139.3 rushing yards per game – although much of that damage was done by Frank Gore’s 200-yard performance in Week 2.

Expect Brown and Addai to continue splitting the workload for the Colts this week and provide similar statistics to those they’ve provided through the first three games. One of them should end up finding the end zone this Sunday.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 300 yards passing / 2 TDs
Joseph Addai – 55 yards rushing/ 1 TD / 30 yards receiving
Donald Brown – 60 yards rushing / 1 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Dallas Clark – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Seattle 14

Titans @ Jaguars (Kilroy)

Kerry Collins / Chris Johnson / LenDale White
Justin Gage / Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Bo Scaife (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +21.4%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.1%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +54.3%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -21.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jacksonville’s secondary ranks last in the league with an average of 281.7 yards passing thrown against them per game. To be fair however, the three offenses they have faced so far are among the best passing units in the league (IND, ARI, HOU). Needless to say, the same can’t be said for Tennessee’s offense.

Tennessee relies on their strong rushing attack headed by Chris Johnson and LenDale White. With that being the case, it’s rare to go into any game expecting worthwhile production from Kerry Collins, and the same applies here. This game would need to turn into a shootout if were to see Collins top 200 passing yards and/or 1 touchdown pass.

It’s unlikely, but it would be possible should Jones-Drew find limited room to run and David Garrard manages to pick his way through the Titans secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee’s offense has averaged an impressive 151 rushing yards per game this season. The Jaguars defense has limited opponents to an even 100 rushing yards per game against them, but they’ve yet to face a run first team that will continually pound the rock for 60 minutes.

Last week the Jaguars yielded 76 yards to Steve Slaton on just 12 carries – the best running back they’ve yet to play. This week they will face a bigger challenge in trying to limit Chris Johnson and LenDale White to fewer than 100 rushing yards, but don’t expect it to happen.

Projections:
Kerry Collins – 200 yards passing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
LenDale White – 35 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Justin Gage – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Nate Washington – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kenny Britt – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs

David Garrard / Maurice Jones-Drew
Torry Holt / Mike Sims-Walker / Marcedes Lewis (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +45.4%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -59.9%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +65.2%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +44.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tennessee’s defense, usually regarded as one of the better units in the league, has had a tough time defending the pass this season. While making it difficult for opponents to run the ball against them they currently rank 29th in the NFL against the pass – surrendering an average 274.7 passing yards per game.

Considering how well the Titans have been stopping the run, David Garrard will get the chance to toss the ball around this week. If Tennessee can take Maurice Jones-Drew out of the Jaguars game-plan however, it’s hard to say if Garrard could win this one on his own. He’d likely need a big day from Mike Sims-Walker to make it happen.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew can do a lot of things (as we saw last week against the Texans), but the Titans defensive prowess against the run might be too much for him to overcome. Tennessee is currently holding opponents to 60.7 rushing yards per game and have only allowed one touchdown run so far this season. His overall yardage may prove to be worthwhile, but he’s likely to be held in check for most of the game when he carries it.

Projections:
David Garrard – 230 yards passing / 1 TD / 10 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 65 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 30 yards receiving
Torry Holt – 70 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Mike Sims-Walker – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 13

Jets @ Saints (Kilroy)

Mark Sanchez / Thomas Jones / Leon Washington
Jerricho Cotchery / Chansi Stuckey / Dustin Keller (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.2%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -36.1%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.3%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -31.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback Mark Sanchez has impressed so far early in his rookie season and should have another productive outing this week against the Saints. He hasn’t thrown for much yardage in his last two outings, but he does have at least one touchdown pass in every game this year.

Due to New Orleans high powered offense, opposing teams are usually forced to put the ball in the air against them or risk falling behind on the scoreboard. The Jets defense has been among the best units early in the season and may be able to disrupt Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense, but there should be enough points scored to force New York’s hand into passing a bit more than they would like. As a result Sanchez should be good for another touchdown and roughly 200 yards passing.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jets ground attack may rank 11th in the NFL with an average 130 yards rushing per game, but they won’t get to use it as often as liked if the Saints have their way. New Orleans is currently holding teams to just 21 rushing attempts per while limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per rush. As a result, they rank 5th in the league against the run, allowing opponents to record an average of 67 yards per game.

New York’s defense has been playing well enough that the Jets should be able to run the ball more than other teams have against New Orleans, but the results still may not prove to be all that impressive. Without posting a touchdown, we’ll likely see mediocre days from Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez – 220 yards passing / 1 TD
Thomas Jones – 40 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Leon Washington – 45 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Jerricho Cotchery – 90 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Chansi Stuckey – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Dustin Keller – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey (New York)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -40.8%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -33.9%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -25.7%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -49.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints passing attack against the Jets defense poses an intriguing match-up. New Orleans offense ranks 6th in the NFL with an average of 267.3 passing yards per game. They also have a league leading 9 touchdown passes. The Jets defense meanwhile ranks 5th in the league against the pass (173.3) and has surrendered only 1 touchdown through the air.

How productive Brees proves to be will depend upon how disruptive the Jets defensive unit is. They’ve already done a good job of limiting Houston’s Matt Schaub and New England’s Tom Brady. If they accomplish the same on the road against Drew Brees it will be an impressive feat.

Running Game Thoughts: Not only do the Saints rank among the best passing teams in the NFL, but their ground game has been productive thus far as well. They are currently averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a team and rank second in the league with 170.7 rushing yards per game. Mike Bell was the productive force out the Saints backfield during the first two weeks, but Pierre Thomas came back healthy last Sunday and exploded for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries.

The Jets defense though, like they are against the pass, have been stingy against the run as well. Opposing offenses have scored just 1 touchdown against them on the ground while averaging only 82.7 rushing yards per game. For as good as the Saints have been moving the ball on the ground, I’d still expect them to have a difficult time trying to do so this week against the Jets.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 240 yards passing / 2 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 55 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Reggie Bush – 30 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marques Colston – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Shockey – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New Orleans 20, New York Jets 10