Predictions - YTD Rk Staffer W L % 1 Marcoccio 48 19 71.6 2 Kilroy 46 20 69.7 3 Mack 47 21 69.1 4 Eakin 42 23 64.6

Saints vs. Colts (Eakin)

Drew Brees / Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Robert Meachem / Jeremy Shockey
Reggie Bush / Pierre Thomas (vs. IND)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -7.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +4.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +5.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -44.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Few defenses had success slowing down the explosive Saints passing offense orchestrated by QB Drew Brees this season. Two teams that were able to cause disruption were the Cowboys and the Vikings, both of which have a physical pass rushing front seven. The Colts loss of Dwight Freeney, who tore ankle tendons late in the AFC Championship win over the Jets, severely limits their ability to match the Vikings and Cowboys ability to create similar pressure. Even if Freeney plays, he will not be the speed-rushing dynamo when healthy. His loss means that Brees will have time in the pocket to pick the Colts apart. The strength of the Saints, much like the Colts, is their plethora of receiving weapons they can use to exploit mismatches everywhere on the field. Their leading WR, 6-4” Marques Colston will have a size advantage over the 6-0” CB Kelvin Hayden and 5-10” CB Jacob Lacey, giving the Saints a key red zone weapon. Colston occasionally suffers from drops and this potential shootout may be won or lost on his ability to make a big catch in the end zone. The Saints must convert opportunities into TDs rather than field goals. Secondary WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meacham both excel at deep routes. The Colts cover-two scheme is designed to take away their strength. Keeping safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea deep will prevent the Saints from their customary big plays and force them to be patient and sustain longer drives. The Colts cover-two is best exploited in the zones beyond the LBs and under the safeties. To open those zones the Saints will throw a lot to Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and their TEs David Thomas and Jeremy Shockey. Keeping them involved in pass routes will occupy Colts LBs and prevent them from blitzing Brees to create the pressure Freeney and Mathis would normally bring when healthy. The domino effect of the loss of Freeney gives the Saints some critical advantages that should allow them to keep pace with Manning and the Colts offense, giving this game potential to be a legendary Super Bowl shoot-out.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Colts have a slight advantage through the air, the Saints ability to run the ball may serve as an equalizer. The Saints finished the regular season with the sixth most rushing yards in the league averaging 131 yards per game. The Colts defense finished just 21st in stopping the run. Many point to their success in stopping the Jets top ranked rushing attack and though that is to be commended, it is much easier to stop the run when the opposition poses little threat to pass. The Saints are a different animal because they are equally effective passing. A well-balanced patient attack is critical for the Saints to exploit the Colts defense and keep Manning off the field. The Saints rotate three players in their rushing attack. Reggie Bush provides the speed and his receiving skills and ability to create mismatches on the outside is nearly unmatched league wide. For power running, the Saints can use the aggressive north/south style of Mike Bell. Bell hits holes hard and fast and the impact of his style serves to wear down opposing defenses. The Saints most used RB is Pierre Thomas. Thomas provides the perfect balance of Bush and Bell. He is effective in both the passing game and can run the ball with authority so when Thomas is in the game the defense doesn’t know which means of attack the Saints plan.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 275 yds/2 TD/2 INT
Marques Colston: 75 yds rec/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 50 yds rec
Robert Meachem: 65 yds rec
Jeremy Shockey: 40 yds/1 TD
Reggie Bush: 45 yds/40 rec/1 TD
Pierre Thomas: 65 yds/35 yds rec/1 TD

Peyton Manning / Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai (vs. BAL)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -8.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +10.0%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +7.0%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -26.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning will find success throwing the ball. While the Saints defense is credited for playing at a high level this season, their success is keyed off turnovers. They are not a dominant defense that shuts down opposing offenses but rather an opportunistic defense that confuses QBs with pre-snap looks and exotic blitzes. Manning is the best pre-snap adjuster the league has known and will neutralize the Saints strength. The many weapons the Colts use to spread the field will force to react rather than dictate the action. The Saints ability to cover Sidney Rice shows they can be effective against Reggie Wayne. Where the Colts have a mismatch is with TE Dallas Clark and WR2 Pierre Garcon. The attention Wayne commands leaves Clark and Garcon in one-on-one coverages that give Manning a short and deep option when the Saints bring pressure. Manning is unequalled at recognizing the blitz and getting the ball out quick. To slow them down the Saints secondary must make the open field tackles. Garcon has the ability to break the initial tackles and create big plays after the catch while Clark will keep the chains moving. For the Saints to win, they must continue to create fumble by stripping ball carries as they did so well against Minnesota.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts may have struggled to run the ball at times this year but managed enough success against the top ranked defense of the Jets to keep their offensive balance. Because the Saints will be focused on Manning, The Colts should again hit some seams for rushing yards when Manning recognizes a blitz in his pre-snap reads.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 335 yds/3 TDs
Reggie Wayne: 70 yds/1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 70 yds/1TD
Dallas Clark: 90 yds/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 55 yds/30 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Indianapolis 34 New Orleans 31 ^ Top

Saints vs. Colts (Kilroy)

Drew Brees / Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Robert Meachem / Jeremy Shockey
Reggie Bush / Pierre Thomas (vs. IND)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -7.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +4.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +5.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -44.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The potential loss of Dwight Freeney (ankle) for the Super Bowl bodes well for Drew Brees and the Saints. Even if Freeney manages to suit up, his effectiveness will be hampered by a torn ligament in his right ankle suffered during the AFC Championship game. During the regular season Freeney totaled 13.5 sacks, which accounted for more than a third of the team’s total (34). Without him on the field providing consistent pressure against Brees the Saints passing attack will be able to do a fair bit of damage.

In their two contests leading up to the Super Bowl the Colts have faced opponents known for their ground game more so than their aerial attacks. That said, they still allowed Jets rookie quarterback, Marc Sanchez, to throw for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt in the AFC Championship. Brees should prove capable of at least matching those statistics as this Super Bowl will presumably be a high scoring affair. Both offenses have strong passing attacks, and while the Saints are capable of running the ball well, it’s likely they’ll need to take to the air often in order to match the production Manning and the Colts offense will produce.

Running Game Thoughts: Despite finishing the regular season ranked 24th against the run with an average of 126.5 rushing yards allowed per game, the Colts have done an admirable job of limiting their opponents in that category during the playoffs. Against Baltimore they were aided by forcing the Ravens to play from behind as Ray Rice finished the afternoon with just 13 carries – although he did average 5.2 yards per rush for a total of 67 yards on the ground. Against the Jets however, things were different. Despite falling behind by a score of 17-6 late in the first half Indianapolis still managed to bottle up Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene as the two managed just 83 yards on 26 carries (3.2 ypc).

The Saints meanwhile are averaging just under 120 rushing yards per game and produced 3 touchdowns via the ground during their postseason march to the Super Bowl. Pierre Thomas continues to be their primary ball handler and should find himself a moderate level of success on Sunday against the Colts. Reggie Bush will likely handle the majority of reps as the number two back with Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton being limited to a shared role in short yardage situations.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 290 yards passing / 3 TDs / 0 INTs
Pierre Thomas – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marques Colston – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Shockey – 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. New Orleans)

Peyton Manning / Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai (vs. BAL)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -8.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +10.0%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +7.0%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -26.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning is coming off what was possibly his best game of the season as he torched the Jets top ranked secondary for 377 yards passing and 3 touchdowns without committing any turnovers. Against the Saints, who finished the regular season ranked 26th in the league against the pass by allowing 235.6 passing yards per game; he should have no trouble moving the ball through the air. That said, New Orleans did manage to come away with 26 interceptions during the regular season (3rd most in the league) and Manning’s 16 interceptions thrown this year are the most he’s had since 2002, so don’t be surprised if the Saints come away with a key interception or two in this contest. Nonetheless, Manning should finish the battle with a near 300-yard day and at least 2 touchdown passes as he spreads the ball amongst the likes of Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie.

Running Game Thoughts: Joseph Addai’s 80-yards rushing in the AFC Championship proved to be his highest output on the ground this season, but don’t expect him to surpass that total in the Super Bowl. New Orleans may be allowing opposing rushers to average 5.2 yards per carry against them in the playoffs, but that’s largely due to a 70-yard touchdown run surrendered to Tim Hightower before facing the difficult task of stopping Adrian Peterson in the Conference Championship. More to the point though, Indianapolis had the worst rushing attack in the league this season, averaging just 80.9 rushing yards per game on the ground. Addai stands a good chance of scoring a touchdown or two in this outing, but his overall yardage will likely top out at around eighty.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 315 yards passing / 4 TDs / 1 INT
Joseph Addai – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Donald Brown – 15 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Reggie Wayne – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 80 yards receiving / 2 TDs
Austin Collie – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dallas Clark – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Indianapolis 41, New Orleans 34 ^ Top