Jets @ Colts (Marcoccio)

Mark Sanchez/ Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cotchery/Dustin Keller (vs. IND)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -44.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Mark Sanchez may no longer be a rookie in Head Coach Rex Ryan’s eyes, however there’s no reason to expect anything other than a very conservative passing attack from the Jets in Indianapolis. This approach has been working well since about Week 14 of the regular season and there’s no reason to change the strategy now with the team knocking on the door to the Super Bowl. During the playoffs Sanchez has thrown mostly swing and screen passes and when he has attacked downfield it’s been mostly passes along the sidelines. Brian Scottenheimer has done a good job of taking advantage of Sanchez’ mobility and ability to throw on the run, by rolling him out on passing plays. This has worked well in combination with TE Dustin Keller who is one of the new breed hybrid TEs (that play like a WR) allowing him to take advantage of mismatches. Keller has scored a TD in both playoff games thus far, both coming after Sanchez rolled to the right. Jerricho Cotchery has been a valuable receiver as his toughness and sure hands have kept drives alive and he has been the guy Sanchez has looked to in key situations. Braylon Edwards has flashed his big play ability, but unfortunately his drops are more memorable than his big plays – don’t be surprised however if the Jets take a few deep shots, as they have been inclined to do once they cross mid-field, in order to keep the defense honest for their otherwise “ground and pound” attack. If the Jets manage to connect on a deep throw to Edwards it could very well change the complexion of the game.

The Colts have played the pass well in 2009 limiting opponents to only 19 TDs through the air during the regular season and shutting down the Ravens during last week’s contest. They still play a variation of the Cover 2 defense, which could lead the way to a big day by Dustin Keller as the Cover 2 is at times vulnerable to attacks down the middle of the field. The Colts rely on their two quick Des Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney to attack from the edges and pressure the QB, so it will be up to D’Brickashaw Ferguson and veteran Damien Woody to slow down the dynamic duo or the “old” Sanchez could come out if he’s constantly under pressure.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones’ knee swelled up the week leading up to their first round playoff game, which may have just cracked open the door in order to create an opportunity for the Jets biggest playmaker thus far in the playoffs. Rookie Shonn Greene has been phenomenal thus far, scoring on long TD runs in each game of the Jets two playoff games. He’s the first Jet RB to exceed 100 yards in back to back playoff games since Freeman McNeil and one would have to wonder where the Jets would be without him. Greene is a big back with better than expected speed and has been more reminiscent of Atlanta’s big and speedy Michael Turner than plodding Rudi Johnson the player many pundits compared him to during their draft analysis. The o-line is having a heck of a playoff run as they have been responsible for paving the holes for Greene and Jones to run through. The athleticism of Ferguson and Alan Faneca allows them to pull out from the left side of the line and make big blocks downfield. The Jets will obviously need to control some clock if they have any hope of knocking off the mighty Colts.

In past seasons, the Colts run defense was totally dependant on the health of safety Bob Sanders, but they have finally found their way without him. The Colts played the run well even without Sanders due in large part to the play of safety Melvin Bullit (62 tackles) and line backer Gary Brackett (84 tackles). The undersized o-line should be easily handled by the physical New York o-line, so those two aforementioned players will need to step up and help get the Jet offense off the field.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 190 yds passing, 1 TD
Braylon Edwards: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 40 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 65 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 55 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD

Peyton Manning/Joseph Addai/Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne/Pierre Garcon/Austin Collie/Dallas Clark (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -37.0%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -18.1%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -41.4%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -30.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: When all is said and done, Peyton Manning will be mentioned during all conversations regarding the all time great quarterbacks. However, building up his playoff resume will go along way to getting him closer to the top of those all time lists. For an all time great, Manning has an unimpressive 24 TD to 18 Int. ratio in playoff games and a mediocre record during those contests (8-8). A few of those playoff loses came to their arch rival Patriots who were famous for disguising their defensive packages and somehow making one of the smartest QBs to ever play the game look confused. Surely Coach Rex Ryan will be studying some of those game films and creating some interesting looks for the Colts’ QB. Manning is one of the better QBs against the blitz, however, which should give him an advantage over other QBs that have faced the Jets. TE Dallas Clark and slot WR Austin Collie should be the beneficiary of hauling in passes as Manning’s hot reads when the Jets send line backers or nickel backs on blitzes, especially if the Jets manage to take the Colts best weapon out of the passing game.

This leads to the fact that Darrelle Revis should be covering Reggie Wayne the majority of the time. Revis finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting and has famously shut down the elite WRs of the NLF this season, holding the following studs under 50 yards: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss (2), Marques Colston, Terrell Owens (2), Steve Smith and Chad Ochocinco (2). Last week the Jets moved Revis around to different receivers and played some zone defenses in order to try and confuse SD during the first half. At halftime, they went back to man to man coverages and held the Charger offense in check more effectively. The Jets will attempt to limit Wayne and bring the heat on Manning, as they feel that he can be rattled when getting knocked around a little. This is one of the weaker o-lines the Colts have had in recent seasons, but Manning gets the ball out so quickly that he usually does not get touched much. That will need to change if the Jets stand a chance of pulling off another major upset. This is the No. 1 pass defense in the league which allowed only 8 TDs on the season – it will need to play like it against the Colts precision passing attack.

Running Game Thoughts: Most fantasy footballers buried Joseph Addai prematurely after the Colts drafted Donald Brown in Round 1 of the NFL draft, but he stepped up to out play the rookie all season long. Addai is not flashy, but does everything well and most importantly for the Colts, is very good in pass protection. The Colts will likely try and get Addai going early in order to slow down the Jet pass rush a little and he could be dangerous on swing and dump off passes as he’s a good receiver out of the backfield. The main function of the Colts running game has been to set up the play action pass, something that Manning excels at – the more effective that Addai is with his carries the more effective the play action will be.

The Jets have recovered well from the loss of NT Kris Jenkins. The middle of the defense was exposed by the opposition at times after Jenkins went down, but the unit started to round back into form towards the end of the season and has played reasonably well in the playoffs – although Bengal Cedric Benson ran extremely well against them while David Harris was banged up with a bad ankle. David Harris and Bart Scott are relentless pursuers and strong tacklers making it a difficult unit to gain big runs against, but no one is expecting the Colts to run much anyway.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 265 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Reggie Wayne: 45 yds receiving
Pierre Garcon: 60 yds receiving
Austin Collie: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dallas Clark: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Addai: 55 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving
Donald Brown: 35 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Jets 24 Colts 17 ^ Top

Vikings @ Saints (Mack)

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor
Sidney Rice / Percy Harvin / Bernard Berrian / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -8.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +10.0%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.0%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -26.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre had his worst three-game stretch of the season during the first several weeks of December. He tossed only 3 TDs while being intercepted four times during that time. But since then, the gray-haired 40-year-old has been on fire. Favre has followed up his worst three-game stretch of the season with his best three-game stretch of the season. He’s thrown 10 TDs with no INTs in his last three games while completing almost 70 percent of his passes, including last week’s dismantling of the Cowboys. And for all the hype that New Orleans’ pass defense received earlier this year, they’re only ranked 26th against the pass. While the Saints have the 3rd most interceptions, they’ve allowed the 5th most passing TDs. Translation: the Saints pass defense is feast or famine.

It’s only natural that a QB that’s on as big a role as Favre is makes his top WR just as valuable. Sidney Rice in the last three games has nabbed six of Favre’s 10 TDs in that stretch. He totally shellshocked the Cowboys secondary, and poor Gerald Sensabaugh still doesn’t know Rice caught that TD along the right sideline. The Saints’ secondary is healthy once again, and they held the prolific Arizona passing game in check last week. They’ll have just as many weapons to defend this week, so it should be another fun contest to witness. Look for rookie Percy Harvin to be used to complement the versatile Rice with short passes and end-arounds to keep the defenses honest. TE Visanthe Shiancoe, however, could end up having the best game of all the Vikings’ receiving options.

Running Game Thoughts: Including last week’s game against Dallas, Adrian Peterson has gone eight games without reaching 100 yards rushing—by far the longest drought of his career. And it’s not like he went up against the league’s toughest run defenses. In fact, he faced Chicago’s 23rd ranked run defense twice and Carolina’s 22nd ranked defense once during that stretch. So the fact that New Orleans brings a run defense that’s the 21st best in the league shouldn’t necessarily make Peterson and Vikings breathe a sigh of relief. Where Peterson has done best, though, is scoring TDs. He scored more TDs this season (18) than in any of his two previous seasons in the league, including six in his last five games. Even more good news for Peterson: only four teams have allowed more rushing TDs than New Orleans. Expect for Peterson to once again fall short of reaching the century mark, but scoring a TD on a short run is definitely in the cards. Chester Taylor is a non-factor in the running game, but he’s had timely receptions on 3rd down all season.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 275 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Adrian Peterson – 80 yards / 1 TD
Chester Taylor – 15 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Sidney Rice – 90 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 45 yards rec/ 20 yards rushing
Bernard Berrian – 35 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 60 yards / 1 TD

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Robert Meachem / Jeremy Shockey (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.1%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -28.8%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +0.6%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +27.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees led the league in passing TDs, and he did so with a spread-the-wealth approach that made the Saints (statistically) the 4th best passing team in the NFL. The success or failure of the Saints advancing to the franchise’s first Super Bowl hinges on how well Brees plays. But honestly, this game will be more about New Orleans’ O-line and its ability to keep the hard-charging front four of the Vikings at bay. Minnesota’s secondary is nothing special, but their weaknesses are masked by the pressure Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and Co. put on opposing QBs. If the Saints’ O-line gives Brees time to survey the field, it could be a long day for Minnesota.

The Vikings are only ranked 19th against the pass. Brees should be able to find Marques Colston on the short intermediate routes and Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem on the deep routes. Meachem is fighting an injury, but he’s expected to play. And Reggie Bush’s reemergence as a threat on offense will only open things up more for those on the outside. But again, if Brees is in retreat mode like Tony Romo was last week, forget about New Orleans mounting a consistent offensive attack. Brees will have to remain upright for the Saints to do anything offensively.

Running Game Thoughts: One may look at the gaudy numbers Brees put up this season and think the Saints throw the ball all over the place to the exclusion of running the football. Not so. New Orleans is the 6th best running team in the league and their 21 rushing TDs are 3rd most in the NFL. The two-headed attack of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell has been effective. However, don’t expect much on the ground from either RB. Minnesota remains a force on defense against the run, as they’ve given up the least number of rushing TDs with 5. Expect that to be the case this week, although Thomas could play a role in the passing game with short dump-offs and screen passes. But don’t get it twisted. New Orleans will win or lose this game by having Brees be the catalyst, not the running game. Consequently, both Thomas and Bell will be nothing more than subpar complementary pieces against the Vikings.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 310 yards / 3 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 40 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Reggie Bush – 35 yards rushing / 25 yards rec
Marques Colston – 90 yards / 2 TDs
Devery Henderson – 75 yards
Robert Meachem – 40 yards
Jeremy Shockey – 35 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: New Orleans 27, Minnesota 24 ^ Top