1/7/10
Jets @ Bengals
(Eakin)
Mark Sanchez/Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cotchery/Dustin
Keller
Thomas Jones (vs. CIN)
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -6.3%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -12.1%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -17.2%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -18.8%
Passing Game Thoughts: The up and down season for rookie QB Mark
Sanchez can all be amended with an opening round win in Cincinnati.
If the Jets have their way, Sanchez will not be relied upon make
many plays, or take any risks. They finished the season second
only to the Browns in fewest passing yards. It will not help matters
that the expected temperatures will be in around 20 degrees and
Sanchez has struggled to make the adjustment from his Southern
Cal roots. When the Jets do pass, they like to take deep sideline
shots downfield with WR Braylon Edwards. He has good size and
leaping ability to make big plays. There is less risk of interceptions
on those go routes and even when unsuccessful it serves to stretch
the field out for the running game. The generalization that young
inexperienced QBs lean on their TE does not apply for the Jets.
They are 27th TE yards.
In addition to the lack of productivity in the passing game, the
Jets will face a Bengal defense that has led their turn around.
The young CBs Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall have proved themselves
one the league’s top young tandems holding opposing WRs
to 27th least points scored. The key for them is not be pulled
in by play action when the Jets take their shots. They are expected
to get much needed support with the return of S Chris Crocker
who is ready to return after missing two games with an ankle injury.
Running Game Thoughts: They key for the Jets success on offense
comes down to the running game. They boast perhaps the best offensive
in the league. If the line can establish physical dominance over
the Bengals as they did in their 37-0 drubbing of Cincy last week.
The Jets leading RB Thomas Jones was held in check with 78 yards
on 28 carries but they found some big plays in behind their wildcat
formation with WR Brad Smith. Smith makes a great dual threat
since he was an accomplished QB at Missouri before becoming a
WR.
The Bengals defense must make the necessary adjustments to bottle
up the Jets wildcat offense. It was the only thing that hurt them
on the ground last week. An inability to run the ball would force
the Sanchez to beat them, which they must like their chances for
success.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 205 yds/1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 65 yds rec
Jerricho Cotchery: 50 yds rec
Dustin Keller: 25 yds rec
Thomas Jones: 85 yds/20 rec/1 TD
Carson Palmer/Chad Ochocinco/Laveranues Coles/J.P.
Foschi
Cedric Benson (vs. NYJ)
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -37.0%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -18.1%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -41.4%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -30.8%
Passing Game Thoughts: in many respects, the Bengals are a mirror
of the Jets. They don’t score many points, they are among
the league’s least productive passing attacks and they are
led by their defenses. The problem for the the Bengals passing
attack is that their one consistent target, Chad Ochocinco, has
a one way ticket to Revis Island. The Jets CB Darrelle Revis has
meant game over for nearly every WR assignment he’s drawn.
With Ochocinco neutralized, QB Carson Palmer must find secondary
targets Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell. Coles, the former
Jet, has struggled to find his way with in Cincinnati. He is the
x-factor that the Bengals will need as a possession receiver to
sustain drives. In passing situations, second year WR Andre Caldwell
will play in the slot. Caldwell has been as productive as Coles
with less opportunity and is much more of a big p[lay threat.
He will match-up with nickel back Dwight Lowery. Lowery is one
of the better third corners in the league, which is key to the
Jets league defense. They have the secondary depth to match opposing
spread attacks. In the end, with two teams with similar strengths,
is will be on QB Carson Palmer’s shoulders to outplay Mark
Sanchez.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals run their offense on the legs
Cedric Benson who rushed for over 1251 yards on 301 carries. Benson
was the only starter that sat out last week, so he should be rested.
He will need it facing the Jets defense that allowed 99 yards
per game and 3.8 yards per carry. The Bengals don’t have
the diversity in their rushing attack that the Jets have with
the wildcat, the Bengals do have more of a passing threat to keep
the defense honest. Though Benson has had success against some
stiff run defenses, I like the Jets chances of holding him right
around 100 yards, meaning it will be up to Palmer to bring win
his first career playoff game.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 230 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Chad Ochocinco: 50 yds
Laveranues Coles: 50 yds/1TD
Andre Caldwell: 40 yds
Cedric Benson: 105 yds/1 TD
Prediction: New York 20 Cincinnati 17 ^ Top
Eagles @ Cowboys
(Kilroy)
Donovan McNabb / Brian Westbrook / LeSean
McCoy / Leonard Weaver
DeSean Jackson / Jeremy Maclin / Jason Avant / Brent Celek (vs.
Dallas)
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.4%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -18.2%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.2%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -5.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: The Eagles were shut down in last week’s
regular season finale against the Cowboys as Donovan McNabb completed
20 of his 36 attempts (55.6%) for 223 yards and no touchdowns.
DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin were both limited to 3 receptions
for 47 yards as tight end, Brent Celek, was the only target McNabb
connected with consistently totaling 7 receptions for 96 yards
on the day. If the Eagles are to bounce back with a victory on
Saturday then either Jackson or Maclin will have to come through
with a few big plays. McNabb had the opportunity to connect with
both receivers on what would have been momentum shifting completions
last week, but failed to deliver the ball accurately.
Look for the Eagles to come out more focused this time around
as they fall back on both Andy Reid and McNabb’s productive
playoff history. A sharper McNabb should be able to find at least
one of his receivers in the end zone in a game in which the Eagles
will likely have to put up more than 20 points in order to come
away with the victory.
Running Game Thoughts: Since Brian Westbrook’s return to
the Eagles line-up in Week 16, the Eagles rushing attack has been
less than stellar. Westbrook has totaled just 49 yards on 14 carries
since he’s come back, with rookie LeSean McCoy and fullback
Leonard Weaver combining for another 53 yards on 15 carries during
that span. None of the members of that trio have been able to
reach the end zone in the last two weeks either.
If the Eagles are to win this week however, they will need to
rush the ball more than they did last Sunday when Westbrook, McCoy,
and Weaver combined for a total of seven carries. It’s doubtful
any of the trio will stand out on their own statistically, but
look for Philadelphia to try and run the ball closer to a total
of 20 times this weekend.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb – 290 yards passing / 3 TDs
Brian Westbrook – 35 yards rushing / 25 yards receiving
/ 1 TD
LeSean McCoy – 20 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
Leonard Weaver – 20 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
DeSean Jackson – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jason Avant – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Brent Celek – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Tony Romo / Marion Barber / Felix Jones
Miles Austin / Roy Williams / Patrick Crayton / Jason Witten (vs.
Philadelphia)
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.6%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.6%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.7%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +43.2%
Passing Game Thoughts: In the two contests Romo has had against
the Eagles already this season he’s managed to throw for
more than 300 yards in each one. Philadelphia will have to do
a much better job containing both him and his targets if they
expect to limit the Cowboys point production. In order to accomplish
that they will have to find a way to contain tight end Jason Witten
while not allowing Miles Austin or the other Cowboys receivers
to beat them deep.
Witten has produced 13 receptions for 119 yards and 1 touchdown
against the Eagles in the two previous games making it unlikely
they’ll be able to take him out of the Cowboys game plan.
Factor into that the Eagles lackluster performance against tight
ends in general this season, and it’s all but certain Witten
will come away with another 5-7 receptions for 60-80 yards in
this contest. That means the Eagles will have to focus more on
not allowing themselves to get beat deep, but it will be a difficult
task if the Cowboys get their ground game going while also having
the Romo to Witten connection consistently move the chains on
underneath routes.
Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber and Felix Jones ran all
over the Eagles last week as they both finished the game with
91 yards rushing while averaging more than six yards per carry.
If they are able to perform like that again it will open up their
passing game and the Philadelphia defense will be sure to allow
more points than their offense could probably match. Marion Barber
is sure to get his carries and do his damage between the tackles
so the key here could be for the Eagles to focus in on Felix Jones
when he is on the field and bottle him up before he rips off any
gains of 10-20 yards or more on the ground.
If they can accomplish that they’ll be in better position
to limit the amount of damage Barber does as he pounds it up the
middle. It would also go a long way towards keeping their secondary
in better position to defend against the deep ball. Although they
failed to do so last Sunday, the Eagles defense has proven they
can stop the run throughout the year as they finished the season
ranked 9th in that category by limiting opponents to an average
of just under 105 rushing yards per game. That is the level they
will need to play up to in order to complicate matters for the
Cowboys offense.
Projections:
Tony Romo – 285 yards passing / 2 TDs
Marion Barber – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Felix Jones – 40 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
Miles Austin – 95 yards receiving / 1 TD
Roy Williams – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Patrick Crayton – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jason Witten – 75 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Prediction: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 21 ^ Top
Ravens @ Patriots
(Marcoccio)
Joe Flacco/Ray Rice/Willis MaGahee
Derek Mason/Mark Clayton/Kelly Washington/Todd Heap (vs. NE)
NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.7%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.7%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.3%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -17.3%
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco really grew as an NFL QB this
season. A mere “game manger” in his rookie season,
he showed that he could carry a team in 2010 and finished the
season with a rather nice stat line (3,613 yards – 21 TDs
– 12 Ints.). During his first season, when he was allowed
to throw, he was limited mostly to sideline patterns where the
WR would either catch the ball or it would end up out of bounds.
This season he was allowed to attack the middle of the field,
once again making Todd Heap a viable TE, after a few years of
being an afterthought due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Flacco
has one of the leagues strongest arms and surprising mobility
for a QB his size and his emergence helped to briefly resurrect
the career of former top prospect Kelly Washington (34-431-2 on
the season). However, his main target in the passing game was
and is grizzled veteran Derek Mason. Mason briefly considered
retirement after the death of long time friend Steve McNair, but
came back and was his steady productive self in 2009. Mason is
a superb route runner with surprising speed and will be the player
that Flacco will look to if the Ravens need a big play in the
passing game.
In the beginning of the season it was looking like Bill Belicheck
was able to once again take a couple of other team’s castoffs
(in this case Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden) and turn them into
something useful (in this case an effective CB tandem). However
as the season wore on Springs got banged up and Bodden was benched
for a while due to ineffectiveness leaving the Pats secondary
a mess. In the later part of the season, the secondary was exposed
and finished the season allowing 25 passing TDs. Shipping off
DE Richard Seymour prior to the start of the season turned out
to be a poor decision as the team recorded only 31 sacks and struggled
to generate a consistent pass rush. The Pats’ defensive
coaches will need to come up with an effective game plan to stop
Flacco if they wish to avoid going two straight years without
a playoff win. In week 4 in Foxboro, Flacco was able to throw
for 264 yards and 2 TDs against the Pats in a loss, which could
be enough this time around in what once again should be a close
game.
Running Game Thoughts: The combination
of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee (while a headache to fantasy owners)
was one of the more impressive duos in the NFL for most of the
season. McGahee did disappear for a few weeks after a hot start
but stormed back for 167 yards and 3 TDs in Week 17 including
a long run of 77 yards. However it is former Rutgers Scarlet Knight
Ray Rice who was the real offensive star of the Ravens for most
of 2009. Rice gained 1,337 yards on the ground and another 702
yards receiving with 8 total TDs. He is small in stature and does
not have elite speed, but runs with power between the tackles
and has hips that seem to be on a swivel as he works his way around
defenders. Additionally, the young Baltimore o-line is shaping
up to be one of the best units in the league and still has room
to grow. All of this could spell trouble for the Pats.
The Patriots should be up to the task though, as they have played
the run relatively well despite losing many impact players during
the prior offseason and to in-season injuries. They allowed 110.5
rushing yards per games and an incredibly low 6 rushing TDs in
2009. Jerrod Mayo is one of the best young line backers in the
league and led the Pats with 70 tackles on the season. 6’5”
300 pound veteran NT Ty Warren is still getting the job done in
the middle of the line and is a large part of the Pats success
against the run. If the Pats can slow down the Ravens running
game, they should be able to keep the game close – and with
the Pats, a close game at home in the playoffs generally ends
in a “W”.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 10 yds rushing
Derek Mason: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mark Clayton: 15 yds receiving
Kelly Washington: 35 yds receiving
Todd Heap: 35 yds receiving
Ray Rice: 85 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Willis McGahee: 35 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Tom Brady/ Laurence Maroney/ Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss/Julian Edelman/Sam Aiken/Ben Watson (vs. BAL)
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -8.0%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -29.5%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.1%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -14.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: The was a large majority of fantasy football
message board posters expecting Brady to return to 2007 form after
a year off injured, but it seems the more rational people that
viewed that season as an outlier (in what is still a remarkable
career) were vindicated. Brady was still one of the best QBs in
the league this season and there’s no shame in “only”
throwing for 4,300 yards and 28 TDs. He did enough to earn “Comeback
Player of the Year” and will once again get a chance to
add to his playoff legacy. The loss of Wes Welker - 123 receptions
in less than 13 games - will be an obstacle for the Pats, but
rookie Julian Edelman has been effective in Welker’s role
when Welker has been out of action this season. However with Welker
out, Randy Moss becomes the only true playmaker on offense. Brady
will need to spread the ball around to lesser talents like journeyman
Sam Aiken and TEs Ben Watson and Chris Baker, but somehow he should
get the job done as usual.
Baltimore’s defense is still a very tough matchup, but they
are no longer the feared unit they were under Rex Ryan. They did
finish as the 9th ranked pass defense in yards allowed, but also
allowed 17 TDs and only recorded 32 sacks. It’s never a
bad strategy to abandon the run and challenge the average Raven
secondary – and what team is more adept at doing just that
than the Pats who don’t need much incentive to abandon the
run?
Running Game Thoughts: As usual it wasn’t an easy task trying
to figure out which RB would see the bulk of the carries for the
Patriots on a week to week basis. However, that task did get much
easier once veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris succumbed to
injuries and perennial disappointment Laurence Maroney stepped
up big. Maroney went back to his power running style that he showed
in his rookie season after spending the last few seasons running
tentatively. Veteran Kevin Faulk contributes as both a runner
and pass catcher out of the backfield and has probably been one
of the more unheralded heroes in the Pats offense over the championship
years. Sammy Morris is back from injury and his hard running style
has always made him a favorite of Belicheck. Morris will likely
see some work trying to wear down the rugged Raven run defense,
but it should be Maroney getting the bulk of the carries.
Of course a lot of the reason why it seems “easy”
to pass on the Ravens is because comparatively it is a much better
method of moving the ball than trying to run against them. The
Ravens were the No. 5 ranked run defense in 2009 allowing only
93.3 yards per game and a mere 8 rushing TDs. At an age when conventional
wisdom says that he should be in decline, Ray Lewis is playing
at an elite level and is still the heart and soul of this defense.
The Pats will likely try and slug it out with the Ravens early,
but will likely lick their wounds and then go on to do what they
do best for most of this contest, namely moving the ball through
the air.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 285 yds passing 3 TDs
Randy Moss: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 70 yds receiving
Sam Aiken: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ben Watson: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 65 yards rushing
Kevin Faulk: 15 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Prediction: Patriots 27 Ravens 23 ^ Top
Packers @ Cardinals
(Mack)
Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / Jermichael Finley (vs. Arizona)
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.9%
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -2.6%
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.0%
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +13.5%
Passing Game Thoughts: The Green Bay Packers enter the 2009 playoffs
winners of seven of their last eight games, and Aaron Rodgers
is the primary reason. The team’s success has been in direct
correlation to Rodgers’ exploits. The QB has 14 TD passes
and only 2 INTs during the second half of the season, and those
2 picks came in one game. So suffice it to say Rodgers is cooking
at just the right time.
The receiving group of Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Jermichael
Finley makes up one of the top three units in the NFL. Each is
capable of dominating a game at any given time, and given that
Arizona CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is battling a knee injury,
there’s a good chance of that happening. Even with their
starting CB this season, the Cards were ranked 23rd in pass defense.
Trying to defend the Packers’ 7th ranked passing offense
will prove to be a daunting task. Expect to see several deep pass
attempts to both wide-outs with a few of those completed. Finley
should exploit the LBs down the middle of the field and in the
red zone. All and all, Rodgers will continue is exceptional season
with a huge playoff performance on the road.
Running Game Thoughts: Ok, I must offer my apologies to Ryan
Grant and his fantasy owners. I laid into this guy during the
preseason and early in the regular season, but he’s come
on of late. Grant has scored in four straight games, totaling
6 TDs during that stretch. The Cards have surrendered at least
109 yards rushing in six of their last eight games, and while
Grant hasn’t exactly run wild from a yardage standpoint
recently, he’s shown enough over the last quarter of the
season to make me think he could be productive this week. His
opportunities may be limited because I feel this game will be
won or lost with Rodgers throwing the football and exploiting
a weakness in Arizona’s defense. I’d say Grant gets
between 12-15 carries with marginal yardage totals; he could sneak
in for a score on a short run.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 310 yards / 3 TDs
Ryan Grant – 60 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 155 yards / 2 TDs
Donald Driver – 80 yards / 1 TD
Jermichael Finley – 45 yards
Kurt Warner / Chris Wells / Tim Hightower
Larry Fitzgerald / Steve Breaston / Anquan Boldin (vs. Green Bay)
GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.5%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.3%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.4%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +9.2%
Passing Game Thoughts: Kurt Warner enters this contest with,
at best, a hobbled Anquan Boldin. And going up against the league’s
5th ranked pass defense without a full complement of receivers
will hinder Warner, especially when you throw in the prospect
of going against Defensive Player of the Year candidate CB Charles
Woodson. We all know what Warner is capable of doing this time
of year, but playing with a limited Boldin will wreck havoc on
their passing attack.
We also know what Larry Fitzgerald is capable of this time of
year, what with his record-breaking post season in 2008. If Boldin
is limited—or if he plays at all—Fitz will be the
go-to guy. His battle with Woodson will be fun to watch and Fitz
will get his share. Steve Breaston could be huge in this game,
even if Boldin plays. His crafty route-running and toughness over
the middle would complement Fitz wonderfully, so look for Breaston
to have a presence in the passing game. I think this will be a
game that Arizona will ask its passing attack to win. Expect about
40 passing attempts by Warner.
Running Game Thoughts: The RB roles in the Arizona backfield
became a bit clearer as the season progressed. Tim Hightower normally
got the start and played on most passing downs, while Chris Wells
spelled him regularly and got the short yardage and goal line
carries. It didn’t help that both experienced fumble issues
throughout the season, rendering both unpredictable commodities
at times. I think Hightower will be the more valuable of the two
this week, as I think Warner will try to throw the football all
over the field. Hightower was one of the leading receiving RBs
in the league, so his role will be vital. Wells could get the
coveted goal line carries, but I believe this will be a game that
both teams rely on their QBs to pull out the victory.
Projections:
Kurt Warner – 285 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Tim Hightower – 40 yards rushing / 35 yards rec.
Chris Wells – 25 yards rushing
Larry Fitzgerald – 110 yards / 1 TD
Steve Breaston – 75 yards / 1 TD
Anquan Boldin – 40 yards
Prediction: Green Bay 31, Arizona 23 ^ Top
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