Colts @ Bills (Marcoccio)

Curtis Painter/Austin Collie/Hank Baskett/Tom Santi
Chad Simpson/Donald Brown (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -22.7%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +34.5%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -23.3%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -12.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: If Peyton Manning and the rest of the starters were pulled from the game last week with a small lead and on the verge of history, what makes anyone think that they’ll get more than a token look at Buffalo. I watched Curtis Painter play last week. If your league has a Week 17 championship game, steer clear of any Colt skill players.

The Bills have been a a very opportunistic unit, collecting 26 interceptions while only allowing 14 passing TDs on the season. They should make a decent starting option as D/ST unit with Painter getting the majority, if not all, of the snaps for the Colts.

Running Game Thoughts: Joseph Addai will likely not see much action this week. Don’t be surprised if the bulk of the carries goes to 3rd string RB Chad Simpson. The Bills are ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed so if your in a pinch with many RBs sitting out, Simpson can be considered. However bear in mind that the Colts could rest key starters on their o-line as well and will not have much of a passing game.

Projections:
Curtiis Painter: 140 yds passing 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Hank Baskett: 65 yds receiving
Austin Collie: 50 yds receiving
Tom Santi: 15 yds receiving, 1 TD
Chad Simpson: 95 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Donald Brown: 40 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Brian Brohm/Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Shawn Nelson
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson (vs. IND)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -9.7%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.7%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.4%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -42.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bills were forced to start recently signed Brian Brohm last week, and the results were pretty ugly for the second year player out of Louisville. While he may get to face some second or third stringers this week, it’s hard to have much faith in the Bills passing game this week.

The Colts started resting defensive players last week against the Jets as well. The Colts have a very good pass defense overall and have only allowed 16 TDs on the season. However it’s hard to imagine that pass rushing tandem Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are going to see much time.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills have been relying on veteran Fred Jackson more and more in recent weeks at the expense of third year pro and former first round pick Marshawn Lynch. Jackson has looked like the better back, but in fairness his style is more suited to dealing with poor o-line play as he is the quicker shiftier back and can get outside when the holes aren’t there. Lynch can break through some tackles but has had difficulty dealing with the constant hits he takes in the backfield. Don’t give up on Lynch in long term leagues, in fact he’s a good “buy low” canidate.

Projections:
Brian Brohm: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 Ints. / 10 yards rushing
Lee Evans: 70 yds receiving
Terrell Owens: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shawn Nelson: 25 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 45 yds rushing
Fred Jackson: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Bills 17 Colts 10 ^ Top

Bengals @ Jets (Marcoccio)

Carson Palmer/Chad Ochocinco/Laveraneous Coles/Daniel Coates
Cedric Benson/Larry Johnson (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -34.1%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.9%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -38.8%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -26.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s very like that the Jets will get to play a team resting their starters for the second consecutive week. The Bengals have very little to play for and if the Patriots win earlier in the day, they’ll have nothing to play for at all. If the starters do play it’s likely to be a very vanilla offense for the Bengals, since they very well could be facing the Jets the following week in the playoffs. Stay away.

Led by Darrelle Revis, this is the No. 1 pass defense in the league allowing only 163.3 passing yards per game and a mere 8 TDs on the season. If having one of your starters pulled early wasn’t enough incentive to bench your Bengal skill players, consider the opponent the “final nail in the coffin”.

Running Game Thoughts: My guess is Cedric Benson does not see significant time and with Bernard Scott injured Larry Johnson may see a good number of carries this week. You likely have better options for your championship game, but LJ is at least an option.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Chad Ochocinco: 45 yds receiving
Laveraneous Coles: 30 yds receiving, 1 TD
Daniel Coates: 25 yds receiving
Larry Johnson: 85 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Cedric Benson: 25 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Mark Sanchez/Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cothery/Dustin Keller
Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene (vs. CIN)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.1%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.0%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -14.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -13.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Once again, expect a very conservative passing attack from the Jets in Week 17. This approach has been working well in recent weeks and there’s no reason to change the strategy now. Since the Jets should not put the ball in the air very often, it’s hard to recommend starting any of the receiving threats, but Braylon Edwards has become the go to option in recent weeks.

Cincinnati has an attacking defense which feature two top CBs, but with little to play for its not a given that the starters will see much time. Additionally, don’t expect the Bengals to tip their hands as to how they would deal with this Jets offense as they will likely save that for next week’s potential showdown with much more on the line.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones keeps churning those “old” legs and getting the job done. Expect the Jets o-line to manhandle the Bengals second unit allowing Jones to run through some major holes. This has all the makings of a big week from Jones and perhaps even Greene should the Jets open a big lead.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 185 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Braylon Edwards: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 40 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 35 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 135 yds rushing 2 TDs / 10 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 50 yds rushing

Prediction: Jets 24 Bengals 10 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Felix Jones
Roy Williams/Miles Austin/Jason Witten (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.3%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.2%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -9.4%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +39.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tony Romo has now led his team to two consecutive wins, after December started in usual fashion for the Cowboys. His ability to spread the ball around between youngsters Miles Austin, disappointing veteran Roy Williams, solid TE Jason Witten and the rest of the supporting cast has more than helped replace TO’s lost production. Austin has a lot of similarity in his game to the aforementioned TO without the “downside” that sometimes reared its ugly head. Jason Witten should salivate a little when looking at the “FF Points Allowed vs. TEs” numbers above.

The Eagles are a team that loves to blitz (42 sacks) and force opposing QBs into mistakes (24 interceptions), but they can be prone to big plays – allowing 25 passing TDs on the season. Romo has grown as a QB and seldom do we see the gun-slinging mistake prone QB that reared its ugly head more often in the past – so the Eagles may get burnt if they blitz too often.

Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber has been the most valuable Cowboy RB to own in fantasy leagues over the last couple of weeks and expect that trend to continue this week. Philly can struggle against big bruising type runners as the middle of the defense has been vulnerable for most of the season. This would be a good week for the Cowboys to try and not abandoned their running game so quickly, since a couple of big runs by Barber and Jones could help slow down the Philadelphia pass rush.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 285 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 15 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Miles Austin: 80 yds receiving
Jason Witten: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Felix Jones: 40 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Donovan McNabb/LeSean McCoy/ Brian Westbrook
Desean Jackson/Reggie Brown/Brent Celek (vs. DAL)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.2%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.3%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.4%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -7.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: McNabb has always done a good job of spreading the ball around in this modified version of the WCO. However, just like when he has Terrell Owens getting the majority of his looks, this season he is starting to see where his bread is buttered. The butter is Desean Jackson. He has really emerged as the “go to guy” that McNabb was lacking and there aren’t many players more exciting to watch.

It will be tough for the Cowboy secondary to deal with the speedy Philly WRs if they don’t get pressure on McNabb. Luckily the Cowboys have been more effective in that regard after a slow start to the season and the Eagles have struggled in pass protection due to injuries. They have now lost their starting center further weakening the line.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook returned last week from his post-concussion syndrome, and gained 32 yards on his 9 carries. Rookie LeSean McCoy was still involved but only received 6 carries while FB Leonard Weaver got 7. It could be a mess for fantasy owners.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 305 yds passing 3 TDs / 5 yds rushing
Reggie Brown: 40 yds receiving
Desean Jackson: 115 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 65 yds rushing / 65 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 35 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving, 1 TD

Prediction: Eagles 28 Cowboys 27 ^ Top

Steelers @ Dolphins (Marcoccio)

Ben Roethlisberger/Rashad Mendenhall/Mewelde Moore
Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +13.2%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.1%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +9.1%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +4.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: With the playoffs still a decent possibility for the Steelers they will be going all out this week. The team has changed its identity from a grind it out, ball control offense into a high flying aerial attack. Big Ben Roethlisberger is one of the league’s top QBs and is a master at keeping a ply alive be scrambling around the pocket waiting for his receivers to come open. Of course this style leads to sacks and occasional mistakes but the Steelers are willing to take the good with the bad, as long as there’s more good than bad.

Miami has been very poor against the pass this season and have been forced to start 2 rookie CBs after Will Allen went down. Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and rookie Mike Wallace should give this unit fits on Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: After a stellar first couple of starts Rashard Mendenhall has slowed down a little but he has shown the talent that made him a first round pick. Mendenhall is tough to bring down and hits the holes hard. He could develop into a top 10 fantasy running back as early as next year.

The Miami line-backing corp. has been banged up since mid-season which has caused the run defense to consistently drop in the rankings. They allowed a less talented but similar back to Mendenhall, Arian Foster, to run all over them last week. Should be a nice week to get Mendenhall into your line-up.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 245 yds passing, 2 TDs / 20 yds rushing
Santonio Holmes: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hines Ward: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 55 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 25 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Rashard Mendenhall: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Chad Henne/Ricky Williams/Lex Hilliard
Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline/Anthony Fasano (vs. PIT)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.9%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -31.8%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.6%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -4.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Chad Henne has started putting up some nice yardage totals once Tony Sparano gained some trust in the young QB and opened up the offense a little. Rookie Brian Hartline has been the most consistently effective WR in the Miami passing game, but he lacks big play ability – an element sorely need in the Miami passing game.

Pittsburgh’s once feared passing defense has not been the same this season due in large part to safety Troy Polomanu missing a large portion of the year.

Running Game Thoughts: Ricky Williams who was having an amazing season at 32 years of age was forced to leave the game last week, but is expected back this week. Bruising tailback Lex Hilliard performed well in Ricky’s place and may have earned some additional playing time.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 270 yards, 1 TD
Ted Ginn Jr.: 45 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 65 yds receiving, TD
Anthony Fasano: 50 yds receiving
Lex Hilliard: 40 yds rushing
Ricky Williams: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 Dolphins 20 ^ Top

49ers @ Rams (Eakin)

Alex Smith/Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. STL)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +6.6%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +26.0%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +6.4%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -1.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: San Francisco didn’t get the offense moving versus Detroit until the second half when TE Vernon Davis caught his 12th TD on the year, just one shy of the NFL season record of 13 by Antonio Gates. The Niner’s offense has cooled off in recent weeks and may struggle to move the ball through the air. St. Louis has defended the pass well at home this year versus high powered attacks such as the Saints and Cardinals. Alex Smith will need a big games from tackles Barry Sims and Adam Snyder to have any success passing consistently. St. Louis plays an aggressive front and has 15 sacks from the DE rotation of Leonard Little, Chris Long, and James Hall. No one else on the team has more than one sack so blocking the DEs is critical facing the Rams. If the Niner’s struggle to keep them blocked, they will counter by hitting Gore on some quick routes out of the backfield where he is dangerous to break a big play as a receiver.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore will have a favorable match-up this week facing the Rams 28th ranked run defense that yields an average of 135 yards per game. Gore has run all year behind a subpar offensive line. Because of the line problems, Gore has been inconsistent, relying on big plays for success. For him to break-loose, he will need to get past run stuffing rookie MLB James Laurinaitis whom almost doubles the next highest teammate in total tackles.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 65 yds rec
Josh Morgan: 50 yds rec
Vernon Davis: 65 yds rec/1 TD
Frank Gore: 85 yds/40 rec/1 TD

Keith Null/Brandon Gibson/Donnie Avery/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -0.7%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -4.9%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -0.6%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -23.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Keith Null has struggled as much or more than Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller as the Rams starting QB. This means his numbers are less than stellar. None of the Rams offensive passing game players is start able for fantasy purposes. Brandon Gibson is the leading receiver and his good games usually amount to 60-70 yards. The St. Louis offensive line will struggle to keep the Niner’s OLBs out of Nulls face on passing downs.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson is expected to play through his herniated disc that caused him to miss last week. If he plays, he’s necessary start fantasy back on the sheer number of opportunities he gets as the only weapon for the Rams offense. That said, I think the Niner’s will fight hard to reach .500 for the year and they have the defense to keep Jackson in check. The key match-up is MLB Patrick Willis vs. Steven Jackson. Winner of this controls the game.

Projections:
Keith Null: 180 yds/2 INT
Brandon Gibson: 70 yds
Donnie Avery: 50 yds/1TD
Randy McMichael: 20 yds
Steven Jackson: 85 yds/40 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 24 St. Louis 13 ^ Top

Packers @ Cardinals (Eakin)

Aaron Rodgers/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/Jermichael Finley
Ryan Grant (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +1.9%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -2.9%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +5.3%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +11.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Packers management must feel vindicated with Rodgers making the Pro Bowl in his second year as a starter after all the Favre backlash. I agreed with their decision and am warm and fuzzy all over even though I’m not a Packer “fan”. Rodger’s leads one of the games most explosive pass attacks and this game has all the making of a great shootout. The Cards defense is average against pass. They will need a terrific effort to pressure Rodgers or else he will pick them apart. One of the Packer strengths is that they have two number one WRs in Driver and Jennings. Both are very even in yards and receptions so defenses can’t cue on one weapon. To add to the defensive troubles, TE Jermichael Finley is almost a third WR, with speed and size to be a big play threat. With the Cards best CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie likely matching up on Jennings because of his big play capability, it’s a good bet Driver and Finley will have big days taking advantage of their mismatches against a middle of the road pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: The Packer’s RBs had a feeding frenzy on the Seahawks last week with five scores. Although Brandon Jackson scores three times and Ahman Green added one, Ryan Grant is still the two to one leader in carries and the only reliable fantasy back. Grant will have a tough road against the physical Arizona front that can stuff the run when playing hard.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 325 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
Greg Jennings: 65 yds/1 TD
Donald Driver: 95 yds/1 TD
Jermichael Finley: 75 yds/1 TD
Ryan Grant: 70 yds/20 yds rec/1 TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Ben Patrick
Beanie Wells (vs. ARI)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +6.4%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -27.3%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +1.2%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +15.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Much like the Packers, the Cardinals are also one of the few teams in the league with two top WRs. It remains to be seen how good Boldin can be without Fitzgerald garnering so much attention, but both are critical to the Arizona offense and capable of huge games. The greatest aspect of this game may be the match-up of two Pro Bowlers in Larry Fitzgerald and Charles Woodson. Woodson is playing like his Heisman Wolverine days there is no better WR measuring stick in the league than Fitzgerald. The Cards may not avoid the match-up, but it still may cause Boldin, Breaston, and Doucet to receive more targets than normal.

Running Game Thoughts: It was a long wait for Beanie Wells owners, but he has stamped his place as the lead back over Tim Hightower over the last few weeks of the year. Despite the recent opportunity, Green Bay is a top run defense unit and a tough match-up for wells. Wells will need a score or two to make up for a tough day yardage wise and which makes him a risky play this week.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 300 yds/2 TD/2 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 80 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 100 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 45 yds
Beanie Wells: 55 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Packers 31 Cardinals 27 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Broncos (Eakin)

Matt Cassel/Dwayne Bowe/Chris Chambers/Leonard Pope
Jamaal Charles (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -18.1%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -9.7%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -14.8%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -5.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: After playing second fiddle in his return from several weeks out with injury, WR Dwayne Bowe fell back in to his customary role as the lead dog in the Chiefs pass attack. Bowe will have a tough match-up against CB Champ Bailey, who had a revival of a year in 2009 after poor health last season. Because of Bailey, Chambers may end up as the preferred fantasy option but it’s tough to gamble on either player for owners with better options.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles has really thrived as a late season fantasy stud. Charles has the speed to make people miss that Larry Johnson didn’t, a critical skill for a back running behind a poor offensive line. The Broncos are average against the run so Charles can be counted on to produce 100 total yards or more to finish out the season.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 200 yds/1TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 40 yds/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 70 yds
Leonard Pope: 30 yds
Jamaal Charles: 85 yds/40 yds rec/1 TD

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Jabar Gaffney/Daniel Graham
Knowshon Moreno (vs. OAK)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +0.1%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +33.4%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +1.9%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -23.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brandon Marshall pulled a hamstring in practice this week so owners will need to check the inactive list on Sunday. Marshall is the only reliable Denver Receiving target and is a must play of he is healthy enough to go. This is a week that Kyle Orton is a second level option as well assuming Marshall plays. The Chiefs are one of the poorest pass defenses in the league ranked 27th giving up an average of 255 yards per game. WR Eddie Royal may be back this week after sitting out week 16 but the entire season has been a giant disappointment and the only way he’s start able is if Marshall is a scratch.

Running Game Thoughts: Knowshon Moreno had a terrible outing week 16 in Philly rushing for just 18 yards on nine carries. Some credit can be given to the Eagles stiff run defense but teammate Correll Buckhalter fared much better with 42 yards on just five carries. Moreno has played the lead role for much of the year and there are signs of the rookie wall setting in. The Chiefs defense is much more forgiving and this could be a good day for both backs. Denver is in the playoffs with a win so expect a spirited effort starting with a heavy rush attack

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 265 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 70 yds/1 TD
Jabar Gaffney: 65 yds
Daniel Graham: 30 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 90 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Denver 24 Kansas City 17 ^ Top

Redskins @ Chargers (Eakin)

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Fred Davis
Quinton Ganther (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -6.1%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +2.2%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -10.0%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -5.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell ran in to a hot Cowboys defense last week, in one of those games where it was just the wrong time of the year to face a team at its peak. Campbell should bounce back this week with the chance of facing the Charger’s second unit since they have already clinched a playoff berth. Santana Moss had a big game last week with Devin Thomas sitting out on a bum ankle. Thomas may get back on the field this week with limited reps, so avoid him for fantasy purposes. As inconsistent as he is, Moss is the best option again this week and is capable of explosive days. The Chargers are poor at covering opposing TEs, which makes Fred Davis a good play.

The Chargers OLB and pass rush specialist Shawne Merriman is listed as questionable and almost assured to sit with little to play for, the Chargers will give him an extra week to gear up for the playoff stretch run.

Running Game Thoughts: The Redskins struggle to rush the ball against good defenses. Ganther is the lead back but couldn’t find any room against the peaking Cowboys. Marcus Mason spells Ganther occasionally but Ganther is the more reliable option. Their success this week really depends on how the Chargers approach this game. If they play their scrubs, which is likely, the Skins could have a good day running the ball.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 250 yards/2 TD/1 INT
Santana Moss: 80 yds/1 TD
Devin Thomas: 40 yds
Fed Davis: 75 yds/1 TD
Quinton Ganther: 60 yds/1 TD

Philip Rivers/Craig Davis/Malcom Floyd/Antonio Gates
Michael Bennett (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -13.2%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -9.3%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -4.7%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -20.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Redskins are tough to pass against, holding the Cowboys to 17 points last week. They are however, missing at least one starter at CB and may also lose both starting safeties this week as well. That’s a recipe for success for back-up QB Billy Volek, who is expected to see the lion share of snaps under center. WRs Vincent Jackson and Legedu Naanee are both questionable with minor injuries, so look for Malcom Floyd to be the biggest beneficiary of the beat up Redskin secondary. Again, use caution with all the Charger veterans here in a meaningless game.

Running Game Thoughts: LaDainian Tomlinson shouldn’t see much action and would be an average play anyways facing the Redskins respectable defensive front. His replacements after the first quarter or so will be a combination of Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett. Of the two, Bennett should see the majority of work, but we don’t recommend gambling on any Charger RBs this week.

Projections:
Billy Volek: 240 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Malcom Floyd: 80 yds/1 TD
Craig Davis: 60 yds
Antonio Gates: 45 yds/1 TD
Michael Bennett: 65 yds/1 TD

Prediction: San Diego 24 Washington 21 ^ Top

Titans @ Seahawks (Eakin)

Vince Young/Justin Gage/Nate Washington/Bo Scaife
Chris Johnson (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +14.1%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -3.4%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +33.5%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -1.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Vince Young will be anxious to bounce back after his poorest performance of the year versus San Diego in week 16. Young has been able to use his feet to buy time for the WRs to get loose deep. The tricky part is knowing which Titan WR will get the ball. Washington, Gage, and Kenny Britt have all taken turns as the big man on campus.

Running Game Thoughts: The focus of the Titans will surely be all the season records within reach for Chris Johnson. Johnson needs 234 yards rushing to break Eric Dickerson’s single season record. That’s a tall order considering just one rusher has eclipsed 100 yds versus the Seahawks all year. Johnson will benefit from the absence of the Seahawks rookie LB talent Aaron Curry. One record well within Johnson’s grasp is Marshall Faulk’s 2429 yards from scrimmage. Johnson needs just 75 total yards to overtake him. No one owning Chris Johnson can even consider sitting him this week.

Projections:
Vince Young: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Justin Gage: 80 yards/1 TD
Nate Washington: 60 yds
Kenny Britt: 45 yds/1 TD
Chris Johnson: 135 yds/40 rec/2 TDs

Matt Hasselbeck/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Deon Butler/John Carlson
Julius Jones/Justin Forsett (vs. TEN)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +23.4%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +7.0%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +31.8%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +12.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: At the local level, there has been quite a bit of shots taken at QB Matt Hasselbeck. Many feel that the offensive line issues are not entirely to blame for the Seahawk’s meager 20 points scored over the last three weeks. Even Hasselbeck’s WRs, Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Deion Branch recently intimated that their poor seasons are partially due to Hasselbeck’s poor play. Burleson has led the Hawks, but is expected to miss his third straight game with a high ankle sprain. With the struggles the Seahawk offense has had, combined with the good play of the Titans defense the second half of the year, no Seattle WRs or QBs make for reliable fantasy plays this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett stands to get plenty of opportunity to shine with Julius Jones still feeling the effects of a rib re-aggrevation from week 16. The bad news is that the Titan Defense is playing well and will make finding daylight to run towards difficult to find. The bonus for Forsett is that he will be the preferred check down option on passing downs where he can use his elusiveness to hit some big plays in the passing game.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 200 yds/1 TDs/1 INT
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 65 yds/1 TD
Deon Butler: 40 yds/1 TD
John Carlson: 40 yds
Julius Jones: 35 yds
Justin Forsett: 45 yds/55 yds rec/1 TD

Prediction: Tennessee 27 Seattle 20 ^ Top

Ravens @ Raiders (Eakin)

Joe Flacco/Derrick Mason/Mark Clayton/Todd Heap
Ray Rice (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -3.4%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +25.5%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +0.1%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -23.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco should find some success throwing the ball against a mediocre at best pass defense of Oakland’s. Derrick Mason has been Flacco’s favorite target all year. Baltimore will try to get Mason loose on the right side, opposite of where Nnamdi Asomugha roams. TE Todd Heap has a tough match-up as Oakland LBs do a good job covering TEs. Despite the tough match-up, Heap has a good shot of scoring as the Ravens best red zone target.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice has really come on in his second year and has the look of a future Pro Bowler. Rice is one of the better dual threats at RB, versatile and active in both the running and passing games. Oakland is last in the league in run defense allowing over 200 yards per game. All signs point to Rice having a monster day.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 265 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Derrick Mason: 90 yards/1 TD
Mark Clayton: 60 yds
Todd Heap: 35 yds/1 TD
Ray Rice: 115 yds/40 rec/1 TD

Charlie Frye/Chaz Schilens/Louis Murphy/Zach Miller
Michael Bush (vs. BAL)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -9.4%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -26.3%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -7.6%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -17.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Charlie Frye threw found the yards but not the end zone through the air against Cleveland week 16, throwing for 333 yards. TE Zach Miller led the charge with nine receptions for 110 yards. Miller has overcome the inept Oakland offense to be named an alternate for the Pro Bowl. At WR, Chaz Schilens is the most consistent threat but not enough to be relied for anything more than an act of desperation.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Bush has been able to display his considerable talent the last couple of weeks filling in for starter Justin Fargas, who is nursing a bruised knee. Bush will share duties with Darren McFadden and get the short yardage-goaline work. McFadden struggles between the tackles but has the speed for big plays in space. McFadden has been doing damage in recent weeks as a receiver out of the backfield.

Projections:
Charlie Frye: 220 yards/1 TD/1 INT
Chaz Schilens: 60 yards
Louis Murphy: 45 yards
Zach Miller: 85 yards/1 TD
Michael Bush: 75 yards/1 TD

Prediction: Baltimore 27 Oakland 20 ^ Top

Bears @ Lions (Mack)

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Devin Aromashadu / Earl Bennett / Johnny Knox / Greg Olsen (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +23.9%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +26.0%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +23.0%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +26.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler entered last week’s game against Minnesota having been one of the biggest busts in fantasy football for 2009. Cutler’s play this season almost certainly had him firmly entrenched as a bench-warmer on most fantasy teams by week 16, but he came through and had the most passing TDs (4) in a game since week 2 of 2008. Therein lies the inherent frustration with fantasy football. But if ever there was a time when Cutler has the opportunity to repeat such a performance, it’s this week. Any team playing against the hapless Detroit Lions has a great chance to right their wrongs. Expect that to be the case this week.

Starting WR Devin Hester hasn’t played in a month, and the chances of him suiting up in a meaningless game are slim. Others have picked up the slack in his absence anyway, starting with Devin Aromashadu. He had a magnificent game last week, and that stellar play should continue this week. Earl Bennett had a nice TD catch last week, but he’s way too inconsistent to count on; so, too, is Johnny Knox. Many people are down on Greg Olsen. I think his struggles have more to do with Cutler than anything else. Olsen could very easily end the season on a high note; expect him to do so.

Running Game Thoughts: Just one more game for Matt Forte owners and this nightmare of a season will be done. His numbers have been horrible this year. Only three games has he averaged more than 4 yards per carry, and his only 100-plus yard performance came in week 4 against these same Lions. That’s the only saving grace for Forte. Detroit held Frank Gore in check last week, but I wouldn’t bet on them duplicating that effort. The Lions are 24th in the league against the run and Chicago is 26th in the league running the ball. This is one of those situations where something has to give, and I’ve watched too many Detroit Lions games in my 30 years of following this team to expect anything other than the home team lying down. Forte could very easily duplicate his 120 yard performance from earlier this season.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 255 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Matt Forte – 110 yards rushing / 1 TD rushing / 35 yards rec
Devin Aromashadu – 75 yards / 1 TD
Earl Bennett – 30 yards
Johnny Knox – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 65 yards / 1 TD

Daunte Culpepper / Maurice Morris
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt / Will Heller (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.5%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.6%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.7%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +16.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Head coach Jim Schwartz makes me laugh. He’s trying to keep everyone in the dark about who will be the starting QB in this game. Honestly, does it matter? Schwartz has to choose between an obvious has-been in Daunte Culpepper and a grotesquely-awful player in Drew Stanton. Yeah, talk about hurting the value of Calvin Johnson…. Chicago has the 12th ranked pass defense in the league, and if they play like they did during the first half of last week’s game against Minnesota, Detroit’s already putrid passing “attack” will appear as though it’s going in reverse. As always, Calvin is the only playing on Detroit’s entire roster worthy of consideration from a fantasy perspective. The others aren’t even worth utilizing the energy it’d take to decide.

Running Game Thoughts: The only good thing that can be said about Detroit’s running game in its current state is that incumbent Maurice Morris has the only 100 yard rushing performance (a 126 yard effort two weeks ago against Arizona) on the team since Kevin Smith’s 101 yard game this year in week 3. Then, in typical Lions fashion, he followed up his 126 yard game with a 37 yard stinker against the Niners, ever though he had one more carry in the ‘Frisco game than in the Arizona game. Morris is nothing more than an NFL back-up RB. Treat him as such on your fantasy roster.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper – 155 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Maurice Morris – 45 yards
Calvin Johnson – 60 yards / 1 TD
Bryant Johnson – 30 yards
Dennis Northcutt – 25 yards
Will Heller – 35 yards

Prediction: Chicago 27, Detroit 13 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Browns (Mack)

David Garrard / Maurice Jones-Drew
Mike Sims-Walker / Mike Thomas / Torry Holt / Ernest Wilford (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.3%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +30.7%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.7%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +24.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard is a hot and cold QB, but lately he’s been ice cold. Sure he had 3 TDs in the Indy game several weeks ago, but those have been the only TD tosses he’s had in the last three games. There was even a stretch during the season that he threw only 3 TDs in a seven game stretch. Garrard makes up for his average passing production by running the football, but not enough to consider him a consistent fantasy producer.

Mike Sims-Walker, while he’s been one of the bigger surprises this year, has really fallen off the map. He has only 1 TD in the last five games, plus he only has 1 TD on the road this season. Cleveland, though, has given up more than 300 passing yards in three of the last four games, so they could be ripe for the picking. Keep expectations in check, though, relative to the Jags’ passing game. They’ve been woefully inconsistently and have not performed well as of late. MSW is the only viable starter in this group.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew goes up against Cleveland’s 28th ranked run defense. While Jacksonville as a whole has struggled on the road this year, MJD is as productive on the road as he is at home. Seven of his 15 rushing TDs have come on the road, and three of his five 100-plus yards rushing days have also come away from home. And MJD’s 52 receptions are second on the team, so his potential for great games is always present. MJD is a must-go per usual in this AFC match-up.

Projections:
David Garrard – 210 yards / 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew – 85 yards rushing / 2 rushing TDs / 35 yards rec
Mike Sims-Walker – 80 yards / 1 TD
Mike Thomas – 45 yards
Torry Holt – 25 yards
Ernest Wilford – 15 yards

Derek Anderson / Jerome Harrison
Mohamed Massaquoi / Josh Cribbs / Evan Moore (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +14.9%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.2%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +32.2%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -9.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: It pains me to write this because I’m not a fan of head coach Eric Mangini, but Cleveland has run off three wins in a row. That’s impressive any way you look at it, but they’ve been winning in spite of the QB play. Derek Anderson took over for an injured Brady Quinn last week as quickly picked up where he left off from earlier in the season. He completed only 8 passes against Oakland while throwing for 121 yards. Anderson will be forced to do more with the ball this week, and that spells trouble for the Cleveland passing game. Dating back to 2008, Anderson has only 3 TD passes in his last nine games. There’s a good chance he won’t return next season, so I hope for the sake of Cleveland fans he gives them something other what he’s given them recently to remember him by. Mohamed Massaquoi has had flashes, but he’s at least a year away from being given fantasy-starter consideration. Josh Cribbs, though, is a big play waiting to happen. He’s been a great flex player this year, and that extends into this week’s game as well.

Running Game Thoughts: Remember all the James Davis hype around here during the preseason? You know, the rookie RB who many earmarked the heir apparent to Jamal Lewis, who was rumored to be cut in August? Well, if any of us were paying attention, we’d have known that Jerome Harrison was the sleeper in this bunch. For someone labeled as too small to absorb the NFL pounding RBs take, the 5-9, 195 lbs. Harrison has 73 carries in the last two games and in the process rushed for 4 TDs. Jacksonville’s 16th ranked run defense is no cake walk. They’ve surrendered only 10 rushing TDs on the ground. Harrison is rivaling Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles for late-season MVP, and for that reason, Harrison deserves and mandates a start this week.

Projections:
Derek Anderson – 155 yards / 0 TDs / 1 INT
Jerome Harrison – 120 yards / 2 TDs
Josh Cribbs – 60 yards rec / 45 yards rushing
Mohamed Massaquoi – 50 yards
Evan Moore – 20 yards

Prediction: Jacksonville 21, Cleveland 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Vikings (Mack)

Eli Manning/ Ahmad Bradshaw
Steve Smith / Hakeem Nicks / Mario Manningham / Kevin Boss (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.0%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -28.9%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.8%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +35.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning isn’t the reason why the Giants will be home for the playoffs. Manning has 9 TD passes in the last four games with only 3 INTs. Those numbers could get even better, as Minnesota’s defense has all of a sudden forgotten how to defend. This is the same unit that allowed Jay Cutler to throw 4 TDs last week. The Giants’ 8th-ranked pass offense should be able to exploit Minnesota’s pedestrian 20th-ranked pass defense, as it’s given up a whopping 24 TD passes—a staggering amount when you consider the amount of pressure their defensive front puts on opposing QBs. I like Manning in this game, and I especially like Steve Smith. His precise route-running should allow him to find openings in the defensive backfield. Hakeem Nicks is a sneaky start, and so is Mario Manningham, but be cautious of both as they could play second fiddle to Smith’s possible big game.

Running Game Thoughts: I’ve always loved the way Ahmad Bradshaw runs the football. But he’s never carried the ball more than 14 times in a game, so the obvious question is will his inexperience with a heavy work load interfere with his production? Well, that’s why they play the game. The Giants finally put Brandon Jacobs out to pasture, leaving the running game in the hands of Bradshaw. Minnesota remains a tough defense to run on, though. And they’ve given up the fewest rushing TDs this year (4), so whatever production Bradshaw provides will be a plus. I think the Giants will take under consideration the limited number of games in which Bradshaw has done the heavy lifting and rely on Manning as a result. Consequently, keep expectations conservative for Bradshaw.

Projections:
Eli Manning – 285 yards / 2 TDs
Ahmad Bradshaw – 55 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Steve Smith – 120 yards / 2 TDs
Hakeem Nicks – 55 yards
Mario Manningham – 35 yards
Kevin Boss – 25 yards

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice / Percy Harvin / Bernard Berrian / Vishante Shiancoe (vs. New York)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.8%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.6%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.2%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +46.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre has been steady recently, but far from explosive the way he was earlier in the season. Bad news for his owners (myself included) is they were probably eliminated from the playoffs thanks to his average week 13 performance in which he threw for the fewest yards since week 2. The Giants have the 8th-ranked pass defense, so Favre could have another average performance. But as solid as New York has been from a yardage-against perspective, they’ve given up an eye-popping 27 TD passes. So Favre could be in line for an average yardage total, but a multiple TD game could very well be on the horizon.

Sidney Rice has scored sporadically this season, and he hasn’t had more than 89 yards receiving since his 201 yard performance in week 9 against Detroit. He should be Favre’s go-to guy this week. Percy Harvin continues to improve after coming back from his migraine issues; he’s a nice option as a flex player. Bernard Berrian could even get into the mix. But by far, Rice is the best of this bunch.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson is in the midst of the worst stretch of games in his career relative to rushing yards. It’s now been six games that AP has failed to hit the 100 yard mark. He’s been far from disappointing, especially during these fantasy playoff weeks. Peterson has 5 rushing TDs in the last three games, along with 9 receptions, so obviously all is not lost. That kind of production is a great possibility this week as well. The Giants are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, but only two teams have given up more rushing TDs than New York’s 20. AP is almost a lock for a multiple TD game this week.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 240 yards / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson – 95 yards / 2 TDs
Sidney Rice – 80 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 65 yards
Bernard Berrian – 45 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 40 yards

Prediction: Minnesota 27, New York 20 ^ Top

Falcons @ Buccaneers (Kilroy)

Matt Ryan / Jason Snelling / Jerious Norwood
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. Tampa Bay)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.7%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.0%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.5%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +5.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay may rank 11th in the league against the pass in terms of yardage (206.9 passing yards allowed per game), but the 26 touchdown passes they’ve surrendered is among the highest figures in the NFL within that category. Atlanta’s offense ranks 13th in the league with an average of 223.8 passing yards per game and should be able to move the ball fairly well against the Buccaneers.

Tony Gonzalez’s availability for this contest is in doubt due to a calf injury. He is just four receptions shy of reaching one thousand for his career however, which would make him just the seventh player in NFL history to accomplish the feat (Terrell Owens became the sixth player to due so last Sunday). With this being the final game of the season for Atlanta look for Gonzalez to suit up as he pursues the mark as long as the risk of adding serious damage to his calf is not a factor.

Running Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers defense is among the worst in the league against the run. They rank 30th in the NFL with an average of 156.5 rushing yards allowed per game and the 16 rushing touchdowns they’ve given up is a pretty high total as well. With Michael Turner expected to miss the season finale due to a troublesome high ankle sprain Jason Snelling is again in line to handle most of the carries for Atlanta. Considering how poorly Tampa Bay has defended the run throughout the year look for the third year veteran to have a productive outing. Jerious Norwood should also get a fair number of touches, although he’s been less productive with them this season in comparison to what he accomplished his first three years in the league.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 215 yards passing / 2 TDs
Jason Snelling – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD
Jerious Norwood – 45 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
Roddy White – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD

Josh Freeman / Carnell “Cadillac” Williams / Derrick Ward
Antonio Bryant / Maurice Stovall / Kellen Winslow (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +13.8%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +1.3%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.3%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +24.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: While Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t been all that impressive, neither has Atlanta’s defensive effort. The Falcons rank 28th in the league against the pass, allowing nearly 250 yards per game through the air. The Buccaneers meanwhile post an average of 187.1 passing yards per game, but should be able to surpass that total at home against Atlanta’s secondary. Look for Kellen Winslow to have himself a productive afternoon as the Flacons have had difficulties defending tight ends throughout the year. Winslow posted 7 receptions for 81 yards when these teams first faced each other in Week 12 at Atlanta.

Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay’s rushing attack ranks among the bottom half of the league (23rd) and will likely be in for a mediocre day against the Falcons 17th ranked rushing defense. Cadillac Williams is coming off his best outing of the season (24 carries for 129 yards a TD verse the Saints), but it’s doubtful he’ll have a repeat performance. Use him if you must as he should be able to pick up roughly 80 yards on the ground, but don’t be expecting another touchdown from him as Tampa Bay has punched it into the end zone a total of just 5 times this season.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 215 yards passing / 2 TDs
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams – 80 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 15 yards receiving
Derrick Ward – 30 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
Antonio Bryant – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Maurice Stovall – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kellen Winslow – 100 yards receiving / 2 TDs

Prediction: Atlanta 21, Tampa Bay 17 ^ Top

Saints @ Panthers (Kilroy)

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Mike Bell / Reggie Bush / Lynell Hamilton
Marques Colston / Robert Meachem / Devery Henderson / David Thomas (vs. Carolina)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -14.6%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +9.8%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -23.7%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -12.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: With the Saints having clinched the number one seed in the NFC, it seems doubtful they would use their starters throughout the entire game this week against the Panthers. Drew Brees is just one touchdown pass shy of reaching a career high 35 this season however, so expect him to be in long enough to come away with at least one score. Another motivating factor for the Saints in this contest despite having clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs already is the desire to avoid a three game losing streak heading into the postseason after starting the year with thirteen straight wins. The thinking here is that they’ll look to pounce on the Panthers early before going with a heavy rushing attack against Carolina’s 25th ranked rushing defense.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints should be able to move the ball well on the ground against the Panthers, but determining which of their backs will handle most of the carries this week is up for debate. Pierre Thomas is listed as questionable for this contest with injured ribs and likely won’t see much time on the field as a result. That leaves Mike Bell and Reggie Bush in line to handle more touches this week, but the dark horse candidate is fourth stringer Lynell Hamilton. With Bush’s injury history look for him to see few carries as Bell and Hamilton will likely handle most of the carries for New Orleans in Week 17.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 220 yards passing / 2 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 20 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Mike Bell – 30 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
Lynell Hamilton – 65 yards rushing / 2 TDs
Marques Colston – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
David Thomas – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Matt Moore / Jonathan Stewart / DeAngelo Williams
Muhsin Muhammad / Kenneth Moore / Dwayne Jarrett (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -8.1%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +9.1%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.7%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -21.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints secondary may be allowing upwards of 240 yards per game through the air, but it’s doubtful Matt Moore and the Panthers will post anywhere near that total. For the season Carolina is averaging just 176.7 passing yards per game and with Steve Smith out this week due to a broken arm they’ll have a more difficult time than usual with their passing attack. Matt Moore’s numbers will likely be very limited in this contest as there is good reason to believe both teams will attempt to do most of their damage on the ground.

Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams missed Week 16’s contest against the Giants with a sprained ankle that will likely limit his availability this week against the Saints. That being the case Jonathan Stewart should be in for another heavy workload as he goes up against the 22nd ranked rushing defense of the New Orleans Saints. Not only is New Orleans yielding 118.5 yards per game on the ground this season, they’ve also allowed 18 rushing touchdowns. Coming off a 200 yard outing against the Giants a week ago look for Stewart to post another 100 on the ground this Sunday with a real possibility of reaching the end zone twice.

Projections:
Matt Moore – 165 yards passing / 0 TDs
Jonathan Stewart – 105 yards rushing / 2 TDs
DeAngelo Williams – 35 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Muhsin Muhammad – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kenneth Moore – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dwayne Jarrett – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Carolina 14 ^ Top

Patriots @ Texans (Kilroy)

Tom Brady / Laurence Maroney / Sammy Morris / Kevin Faulk
Fred Taylor / Randy Moss / Wes Welker / Ben Watson (vs. Houston)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.1%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -2.0%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -9.8%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +7.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Patriots are already locked into the playoffs as either the number three or four seed, so there’s a possibility they will pull their starters early in this contest. For the most part however, it sounds like New England will be going for the win against Houston and only pull their stars if the game is in hand at some point in the second half. That being the case, Tom Brady should be able to come away with totals of 225 or more yards passing while connecting on a touchdown pass or two. Randy Moss and Wes Welker should also finish the afternoon with worthwhile production against Houston’s 17th ranked passing defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Laurence Maroney’s goal line fumble early in last week’s contest earned him a spot on the bench for the remainder of the afternoon as Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor ended up handling most of the carries. What that means for this week’s match-up is anybody’s guess, although it’s entirely possibly we’ll see a four headed running back by committee from the Patriots this Sunday led by Sammy Morris with Taylor and Maroney handling a number of carries while Kevin Faulk comes in on passing downs. If you must use one of the Patriots backs, go with Morris as he seems like the safest bet to handle carries at the goal line.

Projections:
Tom Brady – 225 yards passing / 2 TDs
Laurence Maroney – 20 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Sammy Morris – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD
Kevin Faulk – 20 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
Fred Taylor – 25 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Randy Moss – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Wes Welker – 100 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Ben Watson – 25 yards receiving / 1 TD

Matt Schaub / Arian Foster / Ryan Moats
Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / Joel Dreessen (vs. New England)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -16.2%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -24.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Texans need a win in order to have any hopes of reaching the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. That being the case, one can safely assume the Texans will be going all out in hopes of a victory. Since the Texans have done a miserable job rushing the ball this season expect to see Matt Schaub air it out early and often throughout the game. The Patriots defense ranks 11th in the league against the pass, allowing just under 205 passing yards per game, but don’t be surprised to see Schaub put up a lot of yardage. It may come with a number of interceptions should things seem out of reach for the Texans, but one way or another the yardage should be there for Schaub and Andre Johnson.

Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster looks to be the Texans running back that will handle the majority of carries this week against the Patriots, but all in all it may not matter. New England ranks 11th in the league against the run allowing an average of 108.3 rushing yards per game. More impressively however is that they’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns throughout the year. With the Texans offense ranked 31st in the NFL with an average of just 88.7 rushing yards per game don’t expect them to accomplish much against New England on the ground.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 270 yards passing / 2 TDs
Arian Foster – 50 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
Ryan Moats – 40 yards rushing / 25 yards receiving / 1 TD
Andre Johnson – 120 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Joel Dreessen – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New England 24, Houston 20 ^ Top