SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 1.1%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -0.1%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 2.4%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -22.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions benched Daunte Culpepper at half time in favor of Drew Stanton. The Lions have yet to name their starter for this week but with Stafford likely to sit another week, Stanton is the favorite to get a shot. Neither Stanton nor Culpepper did much to turns heads or got WR Calvin Johnson involved. Johnson finished with a disappointing three catches for 35 yards. If the Lions could not manage to generate much of a passing game at home versus the middling Cardinal pass defense then the prospects of them finding fantasy worthy numbers in San Francisco are slim. Avoid them all them week.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Morris answered his doubters by delivering an impressive 164 yards on 17 carries with a score against a strong Arizona run defense. Morris will get plenty of chances to repeat this weekend with starter Kevin Smith out. While he could have a decent day, I don’t see him living up to his performance last week. The 49ers play the run well and Morris is far from an elite NFL back

Projections:
Drew Stanton: 185 yds/1TD/2 INT
Calvin Johnson: 65 yds rec/1 TD
Bryant Johnson: 50 yds rec
Will Heller 25 yds rec
Maurice Morris: 75 yds/1 TD

Alex Smith/Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. DET)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 26.6%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 27.7%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 28.5%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TE: 22.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Alex Smith had his worst game of the season against a tough Philly defense last week with just 177 yards through the air. There is no better medicine to get back on track than a home game with the Lions paper defense. With such a good match-up, I like Alex Smith as a strong QB2. Both WRs Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan should find enough space in the Detroit secondary to be used, as solid WR3s. TE Vernon Davis should bounce back from last week’s rare poor outing as well. He is the leading fantasy TE this year and will show Detroit why on Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore has ran for over 100 yards in back –to-back weeks after his poor three week stretch where the Niner’s went pass happy. Gore is a good bet to extend his streak to three games as the Niner’s could easily get out to a lead and settle in to their power running game to ice it.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 230 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 70 yds/1 TD
Josh Morgan: 60 yds/1TD
Vernon Davis: 90 yds/1 TD
Frank Fore: 125 yds/30 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 31 Detroit 17 ^ Top

Rams @ Cardinals (Eakin)

Keith Null/Brandon Gibson/Donnie Avery/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 4.0%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 0.6%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 6.5%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: 15.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: It is unknown whether Kyle Boller or Keith Null will start at QB so check Sunday. Hopefully, neither are on your team. Both QBs have struggled to get the ball to the Ram WRs Donnie Avery and Brandon Gibson. Gibson has been the most productive over the second half of the season but is a desperation play at best this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson overcame the N1H1 scares to post 140 yards from scrimmage on 24 touches in a low scoring battle with the Texans last week. Jackson remains the only productive player on the Rams offense and should carry the load again. The Cards allowed journeyman Maurice Morris gouge them for over 120 yards. They will need a better effort against Jackson as the Rams have been playing teams close throughout the season despite having just one win on the year.

Projections:
Keith Null: 125 yds/1 INT
Brandon Gibson: 80 yds
Donnie Avery: 55 yds
Randy McMichael: 20 yds
Steven Jackson: 900 yds/40 yds rec/1 TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston/Ben Patrick
Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells (vs. STL)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 4.6%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 26%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -0.1%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: 4.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kurt Warner and the Cards will have their hands full facing the St. Louis pass defense. The Rams continue to give high-powered offenses a tough time through the air, as the Texans found out last week. The Rams play an aggressive style, and Warner will have to do a good job hitting his hot routes. Tim Hightower will play an important role in keeping Warner upright and giving him a safety valve out of the backfield. Boldin and Fitzgerald are must starts, but may end up struggling to get more than underneath routes.

Running Game Thoughts: On running downs it appears Beanie Wells will carry the majority of the load over Tim Hightower. Wells looked strong running through the Lions for 110 yards on 17 carries while his battery mate Hightower gained just four yards on six carries. Wells will face rookie defensive player of the year candidate James Laurinaitis in a battle of two of the league’s most promising new stars.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 270 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 70 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 30 yds
Ben Patrick: 20 rec
Tim Hightower: 30 yds/35 rec
Beanie Wells: 100 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Arizona 24 St. Louis 10 ^ Top

Panthers @ Giants (Marcoccio)

Matt Moore/Jonathan Stewart
Steve Smith/Mushin Muhammad/Dante Rosario (vs. NYG)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.3%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -6.6%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.3%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +49.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Moore has led the Panthers to two wins in three games since taking over for Jake Delhomme – and lost in a close contest with the Patriots. Moore hasn’t been asked to do much but at least he isn’t throwing to the other team on a consistent basis like Jake Delhomme did.

This week will be a challenge as the New York Giant pass rush finally looked like its fierce self again on Monday Night and the Panther o-line has been decimated by injury. If Moore survives this contest and looks good doing so perhaps he can head into next season as the favorite to start.

Running Game Thoughts: D’Angelo Williams left last Sunday Night’s game after reinjuring his ankle and Jonathan Stewart once again showed why his dynasty owners have been salivating for the last two years in anticipation of the feats that will be coming. A back Stewart’s size just shouldn’t be able to move that fast. Williams’ status is unknown but there’s a pretty good chance that he may sit out one or both of the final two games with the Panthers eliminated from post season.

The Giants are only allowing 100.6 ypg on the season but have given up 17 rushing TDs.

Projections:
Matt Moore: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 90 yds receiving 1 TD
Mushin Muhammad: 40 yds receiving
Dante Rosario: 25 yds receiving
Jonathan Stewart: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving

Eli Manning/Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw
Hakeem Nicks/Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Kevin Boss(vs. CAR)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -16.2%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +16.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -29.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -11.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: This may just be Eli Manning’s best season when all is said and done, as he has helped make a very young and inexperienced WR corp. into a formidable group. Eli has improved his accuracy and the Giants have leaned on him while the running game has struggled.

Carolina has a very good pass defense on paper (6th ranked, allowing 192.6 ypg). While they do have some talent on defense (Julius Peppers played like a beat against Minnesota) and in the secondary, bear in mind that these statistics also reflect the short fields that opposing offenses were given due to Jake’s many turnover’s early in the season and the fact that their run defense has been dreadful.

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants still seem reluctant to rely on their running game to carry them as in past seasons, even is a game that quickly got out of hand in their favor. Ahmad Bradshaw, who has struggled as his foot injury has grown worse, ran very hard in Washington on Monday. He scored two TDs and gained the tough inside yards usually reserved for Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs has really struggled this season and many will start to question the Giants decision to sign him to a long term extension.

The Giants get a good matchup this week when the 26th ranked Panther defense comes to the Stadium that bears their name. The Panthers are allowing 130.4 ypg and have given up 13 TDs on the season. The loss of interior linemen Ma’ake Kemoeatu, Corvey Irvin and Louis Leonard has depleted the middle of their defense making them vulnerable to power running teams. This should be a matchup that Brandon Jacobs can exploit, but are his owners willing to risk plugging him into their line-ups in such an important week, when he has struggled all season.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 245 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 35 yds receiving
Kevin Boss: 45 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 60 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Giants 30 Panthers 17 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Patriots (Marcoccio)

David Garrad/Maurice Jones-Drew
Mike Sims-Walker/Tory Holt/Mike Thomas/Marcedes Lewis (vs. NE)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.1%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.0%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.6%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -20.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard has had a Jeckyll and Hyde. He has played well at home and against poor pass defenses and has struggled on the road and against good pass defenses. This week he gets one out of two when he heads to Foxboro. Tory Holt is on his last leg(s) but the Jags future may be bright as Sims–Walker has shown star potential while diminutive rookie Mike Thomas has played very well as the season has progressed.

The Pats secondary has been abused in recent weeks. There have been some injuries in the secondary, but the lack of any real pass rush has give opposing QBs the necessary time to find their open receivers and the Pats really need to fix that problem.
Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew is built like a bowling ball and runs like one also. He has tremendous speed to exploit lanes and the power to bowl over defenders in his way. He is the most unique back in the league as he fits the mold for any role he would be asked to play, whether it would be as a 3rd down/CoP back or as a goal-line runner – making him one of the few feature backs left in the league as he can do it all – and does.

The Patriots have played the run very well so far this season. They are allowing only 109.0 yards per game and have incredibly only allowed a mere three rushing TDs on the season. Veteran linemen Vince Wilfork and Derrick Burgess should be able to manhandle the inexperienced Jacksonville o-line, but that may not stop MJD from getting through the line of scrimmage.

Projections:
David Garrard: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 20 yards rushing
Mike Sims-Walker: 70 yds receiving
Mike Thomas: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Tory Holt: 25 yds receiving
Marcedes Lewis: 35 yds receiving
Maurice Jones-Drew: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Tom Brady Laurence Maroney/Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson (vs. JAX)

JAX FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +11.4%
JAX FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.9%
JAX FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +27.7%
JAX FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -14.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady and Randy Moss owners are just going to have to accept that they can no longer count on huge production and should just be pleased when it does come. As I’ve said before “those 2007 type seasons just don’t come around very often.”

However, we may get a peek back in time this Sunday when the horrible Jacksonville pass defense lines up against Tom and his boys. The Jaguars allow 244.4 [assign yards per games and have allowed 24 passing TDs on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Laurence Maroney continues to impress and should be a key contributor down the stretch for the Pats. As a rookie he reminded me of a young Ricky Williams and has gone back to that power style after spending the last few seasons running tentatively – perhaps due to injuries. Veteran Kevin Faulk will get some looks as well and is still a dangerous runner and receiver despite his advanced age.

The Jags are ranked 12th in rushing yards allowed per game (103.7) and additionally, have allowed only 9 rushing TDs on the season, so they do present some problems to opposing runners.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 310 yds passing 3 TDs
Randy Moss: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ben Watson: 55 yds receiving
Laurence Maroney: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD
Kevin Faulk: 40 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 31 Jaguars 20 ^ Top

Broncos @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Kyle Orton/ Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter
Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Tony Sheffler (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.9%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.8%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -11.9%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +45.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Has there been any player who’s decline has been more surprising than Eddie Royal’s. As a rookie he grabbed 90 balls but has all but disappeared this season. What makes it even more surprising is that while most felt that the passing game would decline with Orton instead of Cutler, it seemed that Orton fit Royal’s game better. Orton does not throw a great deep ball but is a smart, accurate QB that can work underneath well and many felt Royal would be his “go to” guy. Brandon Marshall’s elite level talent instead has made him the star of the passing game.

The Eagles are a team that loves to blitz (39 sacks) and force opposing QBs into mistakes (22 interceptions). While Orton is not a gunslinger that can burn the blitz by throwing the ball downfield, he does get the ball out quickly and doesn’t make many mistakes. Should be an interesting matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: The combination of Moreno and Buckhalter has worked well for the Broncos and they have generally gotten good production from their running game. Moreno is a back in the mold of Curtis Martin, the kind that doesn’t exactly “wow” you, but does everything well and gains positive yardage on most plays. The former Eagle Buckhalter, still has decent speed despite his age and 1,000 knee surgeries. If the Broncos stand any chance of beating Philly they will need to run the ball effectively.
On the season the Eagles are allowing only 101.9 ypg on the ground and only 10 TDs, so it’s not an easy matchup for the Broncos, however.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Brandon Marshall: 85 yds receiving
Eddie Royal: 30 yds receiving
Tony Sheffler: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 75 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Corell Buckhalter: 65 yds rushing

Donovan McNabb/LeSean McCoy/Brian Westbrook
Desean Jackson/Reggie Brown/Brent Celek (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -24.4%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -7.3%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -18.8%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -17.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: In the past, I have described Desean Jackson as the second most dynamic player with the ball in his hands in the NFL behind Chris Johnson. Perhaps I’m underselling him. Each week the young WR just keeps looking better and better. Donovan McNabb finally gets the weapon he’s been craving since TO was kicked to the curb.

The Broncos are the second ranked pass defense in the league, allowing only 177.5. Champ Bailey is still one of the best cover corners in the league and his matchup with Desean Jackson alone should be worth the price of admission.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook is expected to return this week from his post-concussion syndrome. If he does he will likely be very limited. Rookie LeSean McCoy and veteran FB Leonard Weaver have been very effective in Westbrook’s absence and should get the bulk of the carries even if Westbrook does play.

Denver really turned around their run defense from where it was last season. Although they are only ranked 22nd in the league, they are only allowing 116.9 ypg. and have only allowed 8 TDs on the season.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 225 yds passing 2 TDs / 5 yds rushing
Reggie Brown: 50 yds receiving
Desean Jackson: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 65 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 35 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Prediction: Eagles 20 Broncos 14 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Redskins (Marcoccio)

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Felix Jones
Roy Williams/Miles Austin/Jason Witten (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -14.2%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.1%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.2%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -26.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: The people expecting Tony Romo to falter in December have been disappointed. While the team has dropped two out of three games in December, Romo has played very well, and the Boys pulled off an upset against the undefeated Saints last Saturday night. Miles Austin has joined the elite’s in the league at the WR position and he and Romo have formed a formidable duo that should scare AFC East opponents for years to come.

Washington did not put up much of a defense against the Giants last week. While they have been a highly ranked and talented pass defense this season, it seemed that the team may have mailed it in last week, which is surprising given how much effort they have put forth the last couple of weeks prior. Expect the hated Cowboys coming to town to fire the team back up again.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys seem to have something against running the ball despite having 3 capable backs and a massive o-line. They inexplicably abandon the run almost every week. Barber did managed to score two TDs against New Orleans though and may find the endzone again in this important matchup.

Washington’s run defense has steadily declined all season. London Fletcher is a steady presence in the middle, but unfortunately for the Skins, high priced DT Albert Haynesworth has been anything but.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 265 yds passing 1 TD, 1 Ints. / 15 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 65 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 110 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 55 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 40 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Antwaan Randle El/Fred Davis
Quinton Ganther (vs. DAL)

DAL Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.3%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.8%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.5%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +4.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Just when I was willing to give Jason Campbell the benefit of the doubt, he regresses back into the mistake prone QB that got him benched earlier this season. TE Fred Davis may have made injured TE Chris Cooley expendable this offseason with his stellar play. Davis has shown he has the speed to get by most line backers and the steady hands to be a great target in the middle of the field.

The Dallas defense ranks 21st in passing yards allowed (232.1 yards per game) with 19 TDs surrendered. Teams have been able to move the ball through the air against this team despite a talented pass rush and secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Former Titan FB Quinton Ganther scored two TDs against the Raiders but looked more like the 4th string RB that he was at one point this past week. No one playing in their league’s championship game should be considering him unless they have been hit with as many injuries in their backfield as the Redskins have.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 220 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Ints. / 20 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Devin Thomas: 65 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 10 yds receiving
Fred Davis: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Quinton Ganther: 65 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Cowboys 24 Redskins 13 ^ Top

Texans @ Dolphins (Marcoccio)

Matt Shaub/Ryan Moats/Chris Brown
Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/James Casey (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.5%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.4%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +4.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: If a mad scientist wanted to create the perfect WR physically, he’d likely end up with Andre Johnson. Matt Shaub has moved into the upper echelon of fantasy QBs and has even managed to stay healthy this season for the most part. Outside of those two players there’s not much else going on from a fantasy perspective after Owen Daniels went down. Rookie TE James Casey may have some long term value for those in dynasty or keeper leagues however.

Miami has been very poor against the pass this season and have been forced to start 2 rookie CBs after Will Allen went down. Overall, Miami has allowed 233.8 yards per game and 18 TDs on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Good luck to anyone that’s relying on the Houston running game. Since Steve Slaton, who was having a disappointing year, was placed on IR, its been a unpredictable mixture of Ryan Moats, Chris Brown and Arian Foster getting the looks in the running game. None are solid options in their own right, but with the carries being granted on a whim no one in their right mind could feel safe relying on any of the three.

The Dolphins are the 14th ranked run defense (107.6 ypg) and have allowed 14 rushing TDs this season. The line backer corp. has been banged up in recent weeks so the run defense has consistently dropped in the rankings each week. One of the Houston backs may end up having a decent day, but like I said it’s tough to gather which one it will be.

Projections:
Matt Shaub: 305 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 25 yds rushing
Andre Johnson: 130 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Walters: 65 yds receiving
James Casey: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ryan Moats: 75 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving
Chris Brown: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Chad Henne/Ricky Williams/Lex Hilliard
Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline/Anthony Fasano (vs. HOU)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.6%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -4.6%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.2%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +12.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: As the season has progressed Chad Henne has started putting up some nice yardage totals as Tony Sparano has gained some trust in the young QB. Rookie Brian Hartline has been the most consistently effective WR in the Miami passing game, but that’s like saying that carrots are the most popular vegetable in elementary school cafeterias.

Houston’s young and talented defense is starting to put it all together, but still hasn’t quite arrived as a consistently tough defense. They allow 210.0 yards passing per game and 18 TDs through the air this season and have a decent pass rush led by Mario Williams. They should be able to matchup up well against the non-descript WR corp. on the Dolphins.

Running Game Thoughts: Ricky Williams is having an amazing season at 32 years of age. He’s running like he did during his initial stint with the Dolphins and has shown no real signs of slowing down. Miami will need this to continue of course with Ronnie Brown lost for the season. Bruising tailback Lex Hilliard hasn’t been asked to take as much burden off the Rasta after Brown’s injury as I thought he would. Run Ricky run has been the Dolphins mantra.

DeMarco Ryans and Brian Cushing lead what should be an outstanding line backer corp as it grows and has helped turn the defense around. The run defense sits in the middle of the league in yards allowed per game (112.6) and has allowed 14 rushing TDs on the season.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 250 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 45 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 65 yds receiving, TD
Anthony Fasano: 40 yds receiving
Lex Hilliard: 20 yds rushing
Ricky Williams: 105 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Texans 24 Dolphins 21 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Bengals (Mack)

Matt Cassel / Jamaal Charles
Dwayne Bowe / Chris Chambers / Mark Bradley (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.2%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -16.4%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -12.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -9.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: If not for a brief stretch of games in late September/early October, Matt Cassel’s subpar 2009 season would really be a horror story. I mentioned in several preseason articles that Matt Cassel was fool’s gold this year, padding his bloated stats in 2008 while playing with an all-star cast in New England. Any fantasy owner who bought into the Cassel hype at the start of 2009 deserves what Cassel has given them so far: NOTHING. Cassel gets to show his “skills” against a Cincinnati pass defense that’s better than its 15th ranking suggests. CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph are a nice duo and will give Cassel and his receivers fits.

Dwayne Bowe returned last week after his four-game suspension, so his presence in the passing game will benefit the entire offense. And who’s this dynamic receiver playing the role of Chris Chambers? Chambers was a complete afterthought in the fantasy world for more than two years, and now with his arrival in KC, Chambers has posted two 100-plus yard performances in the last five weeks. Keep in mind he had ZERO such games in his previous 31 games. All that being said, Chambers and Bowe will have minimal output going up against Hall and Joseph. Don’t expect much from this receiving tandem this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles’ 2009 performance brings back memories of such late-season waiver wire gems of yesteryear such as Dominic Davis, Nick Goings, Mewelde Moore and Julius Jones, to name a few. Charles is arguably the hottest RB in fantasy football right now. He’s scored in six straight games, and his role in the passing game simply adds extra luster to his already shimmering value. Charles is explosive, as his 5.4 ypc proves—which incidentally is double that of former RB Larry Johnson in 2009. The Bengals have the league’s 3rd-ranked run defense and have allowed only 8 rushing TDs, but as tough as they’ve been, there’s no way you turn from Charles right now. He’s on a role, and there’s nothing better this time of year than a player that’s peaking. Don’t overthink this one; Charles is as solid as they come.

Projections:
Matt Cassel – 185 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Jamaal Charles – 85 yards rushing / 45 yards rec / 1 rec TD
Dwayne Bowe – 60 yards
Chris Chambers – 40 yards
Mark Bradley – 15 yards

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Andre Caldwell / Laveranues Coles / JP Foschi (vs. Kansas City)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.0%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +34.2%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.4%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +8.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer showed glimpses of his former fantasy-stud self last week against San Diego, as he threw for more than 300 yards in a game for the first time since a week 16 performance in 2007. Yes, it’s been that long since he graced us with the kind of performance worthy of starting consideration. Is it Palmer or the run-oriented offensive philosophy the Bengals have adopted in 2009? Maybe, but the pedestrian numbers of Palmer can’t be ignored. In the six games after his 5-TD performance in week 7, Palmer threw only 4 TDs. I’m hoping that you didn’t have to rely on him during that stretch.

Kansas City is nothing special on defense, but I doubt the Cincy passing game will take full advantage of it because of its conservative approach. Chad Ochocinco is always a candidate for an 8 catch, 120 yard, 2 TD game, but he’s also a candidate for a 3 for 35 yard game too. You simply don’t know with this offense. Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell are not options this week, but JP Foschi did have the most productive game of his career last week.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson, the beneficiary of the Bengals’ ultra-conservative game plans, hasn’t seen the end zone since week 8 against Baltimore. The skeptic would say he’s peaked; the optimist would say he’s due. I’d go with the latter. While it is true that Benson hasn’t had the impact he had before his hip injury, the fact remains he’s the bell cow of this offense, first of all, and secondly, the Bengals play the 31st ranked rush defense at home. Benson could easily see 30-35 carries in this game while rushing for more than 100 yards and scoring his first TD in more than two months. Benson hasn’t scored multiple TDs this season; in fact, he hasn’t done that since week 5 of 2006. Benson, however, could break that streak this week. He’s a solid start this week and should be in your line-up.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 210 yards / 1 TD
Cedric Benson – 120 yards / 2 TDs
Chad Ochocinco – 80 yards / 1 TD
Laveranues Coles – 55 yards
Andre Caldwell – 35 yards
JP Foschie – 25 yards

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Kansas City 10 ^ Top

Raiders @ Browns (Mack)

JaMarcus Russell / Darren McFadden / Justin Fargas
Louis Murphy / Chaz Shilens / Zach Miller (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.6%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +34.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +21.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Uh-oh. The JaMarcus Russell Experiment may be heading into its Second Act here in 2009. That’s not necessarily a good thing. Russell has completely stunk up the joint in just about every opportunity he’s gotten this year, his late-game heroics last week notwithstanding. There’s nothing redeeming about his game, other than he throws to one of the most underrated TEs in the league in Zach Miller. Louis Murphy has shown flashes and Chaz Shilens has been steady, yet unspectacular. But whatever talent may be lurking beneath the surface of the Oakland receivers, none of it matters if Russell continues to be the abomination he’s been at QB. That kind of below-average QB play only keeps Miller and Co. from reaching their full fantasy potential. But to Miller’s credit, he’s continued his good play in spite of the dreadful QB play he’s gotten this year. He’s a solid start this week, even with Russell at QB. He has to throw to somebody, right? Everybody else is useless.

Running Game Thoughts: Oakland has one of the worst RB situations in fantasy football. Three equally-talented RBs cancel each other out, as each one has put up a game or two this year that was worthy of a start. The problem is it’s difficult, if not impossible, to decide whose turn it is. Last week Michael Bush went off, but the previous two weeks it was Justin Fargas. Whoever gets the bulk of the carries, though, could be in store for a nice game. Cleveland’s 29th-ranked run defense has given up 15 rushing TDs. The Browns, however, have had a tendency recently to be a force stopping the run. Two of the last three weeks they’ve held both San Diego and Pittsburgh to under 100 yards on the ground for the game, including holding the Steelers to 77 yards. Here’s the issue once again: it’s anyone’s guess which RB will be the primary ball carrier. In situations like that, I’d simply go with the player who’s shown the most on a consistent basis—Justin Fargas.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell – 165 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Justin Fargas – 65 yards / 1 TD
Darren McFadden – 40 yards
Louis Murphy – 50 yards
Chaz Shilens – 35 yards
Zach Miller – 70 yards / 1 TD

Derek Anderson / Jerome Harrison
Josh Cribbs / Chansi Stuckey / Mohamad Massaquoi (vs. Oakland)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -0.6%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +27.7%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.2%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -22.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: If recent history is any indication, we should be ready for a barn-burner of a game. It seems whenever Cleveland plays a team that’s as horrid as they are, it’s the game of the week in the NFL. Case in point: the Browns’ game against Detroit and last week’s contest against Kansas City. The only challenge would be getting the memo to the less-than-stellar passing game of the Raiders. We’ll see. Derek Anderson gets another crack at playing after Brady Quinn was put on IR this week due to a foot injury. Anderson has looked like one of the worst QBs to play the position in some time whenever he’s gotten an opportunity to play in 2009. He’s thrown at least 1 INT in all six games that he’s played while tossing on 2 total TDs. To think that this guy had a Pro Bowl year just two years ago is mindboggling.

Josh Cribbs, coming off his record-breaking game against Kansas City, is the one true consistent threat on offense. Expect him to get the rock in Wildcat formations, on end-arounds, short WR screens and of course the kicking game. Suffice it to say it’d behoove Anderson and the coaching staff to get the rock in his hands as often as possible. Oakland quietly has a stingy pass defense, as they given up only 15 passing TDs. Chansi Stuckey and Mohamad Massaquoi are unique names but not household names. Keep ‘em benched.

Running Game Thoughts: Jerome Harrison had a game for the ages last week against Kansas City, but let’s not get carried away. His 286 yard performance was only 15 more yards than he had in his previous 10 games COMBINED. I’m not one to jump on what’s already an overcrowded bandwagon. It was exciting and exhilarating to see a Cleveland Brown player become the talk of the league for all the right reasons, but his week 15 game should be put in its proper perspective and not used to gauge Harrison’s overall talent.

If nothing else, though, it certainly solidified his stronghold on the starting position for the balance of the year. Injuries abound for RBs this time of year, so if you’re hurting for healthy bodies to put in your line-up, you could do much worse than Harrison. The Raiders have the 28th-ranked run defense and have given up a league-worse 20 rushing TDs. That bodes well for Harrison’s chances. He won’t come close to duplicating last week’s performance, but he could give you nice production in this match-up.

Projections:
Derek Anderson – 180 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
James Harrison – 95 yards rushing / 1 rushing TD / 35 yards rec
Josh Cribbs – 40 yards rushing / 65 yards rec
Chansi Stuckey – 40 yards
Mohamad Massaquoi – 35 yards

Prediction: Oakland 20, Cleveland 17 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Packers (Mack)

Matt Hasselbeck / Justin Forsett / Julius Jones
TJ Houshmandzadeh / Deion Branch / John Carlson (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.1%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -27.7%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.1%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Quick question: what team has more pass attempts than any other? New Orleans? Nope. Indy? Not quite. New England? No. It’s Seattle. Their 541 attempts are actually 63 more than the Saints, yet the Seahawks only have 18 passing TDs this year. That’s not a good ratio, obviously. Matt Hasselbeck has been slightly below average this year, but he’s had a few bright spots. Last week’s game against Tampa Bay, though, was a dreadful performance. It was the first time he tossed 4 INTs in a game since 2004, and he didn’t look good in the process. He’s obviously the straw that stirs the drink of the offense, and when he’s off the entire passing game is off.

Since TJ Houshmandzadeh’s 12 TD season from 2007, he’s scored a grand total of 7 TDs in the 28 games since, including none in the last six. He’s proven to be an inconsistent low-end #2 fantasy receiver, and the match-up this week is not good for him or any other passing/receiver option for the Seahawks. Green Bay was lit up by Ben Roethlisberger last week, so expect Charles Woodson and the rest of the defense to take out their frustration on the pedestrian passing attack of Seattle. There are no good starting options here. Look elsewhere if you can.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett and Julius Jones have recently shared carries, making them both useless options. For my money, Forsett has shown more this year to warrant being the starter and primary ball carrier. But somehow head coach Jim Mora has an affinity for Jones that dictates the veteran getting the start. Whatever his reasoning, Jones continues to get the nod—much to the chagrin of those wishing Forsett was the main guy.

With the way this team has been playing, though, it won’t matter who gets the carries in this game. Green Bay has second-best run defense in the NFL and has given up only 5 TDs on the ground this year. Neither Forsett nor Jones is a good starting option. Much like the passing game components for the Seahawks, look elsewhere for RB help this week.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck – 190 yards / 1 TD / 3 INTs
Justin Forsett – 55 rushing yards /1 rushing TD / 25 yards rec
Julius Jones – 40 yards
TJ Houshmandzadeh – 60 yards
Deion Branch – 55 yards
John Carlson – 40 yards / 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / Jermichael Finley (vs. Seattle)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.2%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 0.0%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +25.8%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +0.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers went on the road last week and torched a tough, albeit struggling, Pittsburgh defense. His 300-plus yard performance was the fifth such game this season, making him one of the most consistent fantasy QBs in the league. And the fact that he protects the football—only 5 INTs in the last nine games—should give his owners even more confidence in his ability this time of year.

As if Donald Driver and Greg Jennings weren’t enough firepower for Rodgers, the recent play of Jermichael Finley furthers the argument that the Packers have one of the best fantasy passing offenses in the league. Finley has 31 catches in the five games since his return from injury along with 3 TDs. He’s a primary target on most pass plays in the red zone, plus he’s a match-up nightmare for most linebackers and D-backs. The Seahawks’ 29th-ranked pass defense will be shredded this week, so Driver, Jennings, Rodgers and Finley are all no-brainer starters this week.

Running Game Thoughts: I’ve never been a big fan of Ryan Grant, but I must say that he’s handling his business during these fantasy playoffs. Last week’s game at Pittsburgh was unspectacular with only 37 yards rushing, but he did manage to score a TD. And that came on the heels of his 137 yard, 2 TD gem the previous week against Chicago. Seattle is 13th in the league against the run, but perhaps that number is jaded somewhat because everyone has so much success throwing on them. I anticipate that being the case this week as well, so tread lightly when trying to decide whether to start Grant. He could see some action as a receiver, but I just think his role as a runner will be negated by the explosive passing game. Start him, though, if you’re the gambling type.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 290 yards / 3 TDs
Ryan Grant – 60 yards rushing / 45 yards rec
Donald Driver – 130 yards / 2 TDs
Greg Jennings – 55 yards
Jermichael Finley – 45 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 27, Seattle 14 ^ Top

Ravens @ Steelers (Mack)

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice
Derrick Mason / Demetrius Williams / Todd Heap (vs Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.5%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -33.5%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.0%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -14.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: After tossing only 3 TDs in the previous six games, Flacco went off last week and threw for a career high 4 TDs. This week he gets to go up against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for more than 300 yards and 3 TDs. Flacco doesn’t have the weapons that Rodgers has, but he can certainly exploit the obvious weaknesses throughout the Steeler secondary. And coupled with the fact that the Ravens may struggle against Pittsburgh’s run defense, Flacco may HAVE to throw in order for Baltimore to move the football.

Derrick Mason continues to amaze with his steady play and precise route running. Demetrius Williams has replaced an injured Mark Clayton, and the youngster played well last week. Todd Heap even decided to show up last week, scoring his first TDs since week 2. Mason is a solid WR2 this week, but Heap disappears for too long at times to be counted on this time of year. And Williams simply hasn’t done enough to warrant a start.

Running Game Thoughts: You can count on Ray Rice not being a solid starter this week. Pittsburgh has the NFL’s top rushing defense, so Rice will find running room sparse. He had 88 yards in the first meeting but was a player in the passing game with 5 receptions for 67 yards. You should expect similar production this week. Rice is a dual threat who should always find ways to be productive, be it as a runner or receiver. That’s what will make Rice a top-10 fantasy back in 2010. But meanwhile, Rice is too valuable and the potential is too great to sit Rice. Both the run and pass game in Baltimore seems to be built around what Rice does. That kind of importance to a football team can’t be ignored; consequently, Rice is a must start as a RB2.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 220 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Ray Rice – 55 yards rushing / 40 yards rec
Derrick Mason – 70 yards / 1 TD
Demetrius Williams – 55 yards / 1 TD
Todd Heap – 30 yards

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Mike Wallace / Heath Miller (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -9.6%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -24.8%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -11.2%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -15.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Talk about redeeming yourself…Ben Roethlisberger had the ugliest game of his season several weeks ago against Cleveland. All he did was come out and throw for 500 yards against a tough Green Bay secondary. His challenge this week will be just as daunting, as Baltimore has the 6th-ranked pass defense. But perhaps what’s most impressive for fantasy owners regarding Roethlisberger is last week’s game was the first time this season that he didn’t have two straight games with an interception.

Mike Wallace made his presence known last week, but be careful with overinflating his value after such a game. He has only 8 receptions in the last four games, so don’t allow those two dynamic TD grabs last week to cloud your judgment. Hines Ward remains the go-to receiver anyway, and Santonio Holmes is a good second option. Only Ward is a viable play this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t been much to write home about over the last two games, totaling only 91 yards on the ground. He did, however, crank out 95 yards against Baltimore in the first meeting. And that’s no small feat considering the Ravens’ 7th-ranked defense. Pittsburgh appeared to abandon the run prematurely last week, which would explain why Mendenhall only got 11 carries. That more than likely won’t be the case this week. The Steelers are an uncharacteristically ranked 19th running the football, but if they’re to have any semblance of offensive success, it will be crucial that they establish Mendenhall early. From an NFL standpoint, the number of carries he gets may be more important than the yardage he gains. That does nothing from a fantasy perspective, so consequently Mendenhall should be a huge question mark for you. He’s a low-end #2 RB this week; start/bench him accordingly.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Rashard Mendenhall – 45 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 80 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 55 yards
Mike Wallace – 30 yards
Heath Miller – 35 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 14 ^ Top

Vikings @ Bears (Mack)

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice / Percy Harvin / Bernard Berrian / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.6%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.1%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.4%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +11.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: We can’t ignore the numbers. Two years in a row, Brett Favre has struggled late in the season. Last year the injuries apparently were the culprit; this year, who knows? But after surprising the league early in the year and working on the best season a 40-year-old QB has ever had, Favre has begun to swoon big-time. He has only 3 TDs and 4 INTs in the last three games, which obviously is coming at the absolute wrong time for owners who banked on him to continue his stellar play (myself included).

Now Favre is marred in a supposed rift with head coach Brad Childress. I believe it’s much to do about nothing and that it won’t affect his play. Whether or not he will regain his level of play from two months ago remains to be seen, but his weapons remain the same and provide him with the supporting cast he needs to emerge from the doldrums of mediocrity. With all the attention Sidney Rice has gotten this year, you’d think he has double-digits in TDs. He doesn’t. But he’s still a nice option this week, along with Percy Harvin. I like Visanthe Shiancoe too. He’s due for a productive game after two dudes in a row.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson dropped a few hints this week to the media about how he’d like to get more touches. I think what he meant to say was he’d like more PRODUCTIVE runs, because he has a comparable number of carries right now that he did at this time last year. Peterson is in the middle of a streak that has found him under 100 rushing yards in five straight games—by far the longest such streak in his 3-year career. That lack of rushing yardage, however, is supplemented by an increased role in the passing game, as well as a career high in rushing TDs. So all is not lost with AP. Plus, Chicago is the kind of defense that a player can get back on track against. They’re only ranked 25th in the league against the run, so I expect Peterson to finally break the century mark this week.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 240 yards / 2 TDs
Adrian Peterson – 115 yards / 1 TD
Sidney Rice – 95 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 60 yards
Bernard Berrian – 20 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 45 yards / 1 TD

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Johnny Knox / Devin Aromashodu / Earl Bennett / Greg Olsen (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.7%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -26.7%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.2%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +23.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Watching Jay Cutler play QB this year is a painful experience. Last week’s game against Baltimore was one of the worst displays of NFL QB play I’ve seen in quite some time. He completed only 37 percent of his passes, threw 3 INTs and no TDs. Every time he dropped back to pass, you had a feeling something wasn’t going to happen good for the offense. Cutler is as close to a don’t-start-under-any-circumstance player. It’s been ugly. But part of his problem is the lack of receiving talent the Bears have. Johnny Knox is a poor man’s Miles Austin, Earl Bennett is…well…Earl Bennett, and Devin Aromashodu is still trying to learn the ropes of the NFL. Devin Hester is the best he’s got on the outside, but I wouldn’t dare suggest you start him. It’s a Monday night game and you’d be playing with fire if you gambled on him suiting up. Don’t chance it. Greg Olsen is the most dynamic receiving option on the team, but he’s been inconsistent most of the year. Bottom line: keep clear of Bears players this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Maybe the one player that rivals Jay Cutler in being a bust relative to his draft position is Matt Forte. I don’t know what’s more painful, watching Cutler try to throw on pass plays or Forte trying to run. This Chicago offense is just putrid; there’s no other description. Not much thought or energy should be exerted when trying to decide to start Forte. Just know this: Minnesota has the 4th-best run defense and have given up only 4 rushing TDs all year. Forte should be on your bench. Period.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 185 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Matt Forte – 40 rushing yards / 20 rec yards
Johnny Knox – 50 yards
Devin Aromashodu – 35 yards
Earl Bennett – 30 yards
Greg Olsen – 40 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Chicago 10 ^ Top

Chargers @ Titans (Kilroy)

Philip Rivers / LaDainian Tomlinson / Darren Sproles
Vincent Jackson / Malcolm Floyd / Antonio Gates (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +23.9%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -3.7%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +35.7%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +7.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Even though the Titans defense against the pass isn’t quite as bad as it was earlier in the season, it’s still an area of the game the Chargers offense should be able to exploit. Tennessee is allowing 265.1 yards per game through the air and the 28 touchdown passes they’ve allowed is most in the league. By comparison, San Diego’s offense ranks 5th in the NFL with an average of 268.9 passing yards per game with 25 touchdown passes to just 9 interceptions. Needless to say, Philip Rivers should have himself another strong outing as should Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.

Running Game Thoughts: For as good as the Chargers passing attack has been they’ve struggled moving the ball on the ground. The duo of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles have combined for an average of just 86.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the league. The Titans meanwhile have done a decent job limiting opposing rushers, allowing them just over 100 yards per game. They have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns however, which should translate into a 50-50 chance for Tomlinson to punch one into the end zone during this contest.

Projections:
Philip Rivers – 270 yards passing yards / 2 TDs
LaDainian Tomlinson – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Darren Sproles – 25 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Vincent Jackson – 115 yards receiving / 1 TD
Malcolm Floyd – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Antonio Gates – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Vince Young / Chris Johnson
Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Justin Gage / Bo Scaife (vs. San Diego)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.2%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +1.3%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.5%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +0.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young may be coming off a 236 yard, 3 TD outing against the Dolphins, but don’t expect him to post those types of numbers against the Chargers. San Diego’s defense ranks 13th in the league with an average of 213.2 passing yards allowed per game. They have allowed 21 touchdown passes also though, so Young should be able to find one of his targets in the end zone. For the most part however, expect to see a lot of Chris Johnson as he goes for his 10th consecutive outing of producing at least 100 yards on the ground.

Running Game Thoughts: Not only is Johnson looking to add to his consecutive games streak of 100 yards rushing, he’s also making a strong push to eclipse the 2000 yard mark. Only five NFL running backs have achieved that total throughout history (O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, and Jamal Lewis). With two games remaining, Johnson needs to average 135 rushing yards per outing to add his name to that list. Against a San Diego Chargers unit that allows 4.4 yards per carry and just under 117 rushing yards per game, Johnson stands a good chance achieving that total.

Projections:
Vince Young – 210 yards passing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 135 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 30 yards receiving
Nate Washington – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kenny Britt – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Justin Gage – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Bo Scaife – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: San Diego 27, Tennessee 24 ^ Top

Bills @ Falcons (Kilroy)

Ryan Fitzpatrick / Fred Jackson
Marshawn Lynch / Terrell Owens / Lee Evans (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +18.8%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +5.5%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.5%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +32.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick (ankle) missed practice most of the week and was a limited participant in Friday’s session. Interim coach Perry Fewell said he hopes Fitzpatrick will be able to go against the Falcons on Sunday, but that Brian Brohm would get the start if necessary. Atlanta’s defense ranks 30th in the league against the pass and allows nearly 255 yards per game through the air. The Bills air attack hasn’t been impressive this season, but the match-up is a favorable one that should result in some decent production from wide receiver Terrell Owens as he gets to play in his hometown of Atlanta.

Running Game Thoughts: Fred Jackson continues to work as the lead back in Buffalo after regaining his spot atop the depth chart a few weeks ago due to a lack of production from Marshawn Lynch. In facing this week’s opponent, an Atlanta team that allows more than 115 yards per game on the ground, Jackson should have his third straight outing of at least 80 rushing yards while continuing to be a productive receiver out of the backfield. Marshawn Lynch meanwhile will only see a handful of carries throughout the game and shouldn’t be relied upon for many fantasy points.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 200 yards passing / 1 TD
Fred Jackson – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Marshawn Lynch – 35 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 10 yards receiving
Terrell Owens – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Lee Evans – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Matt Ryan / Jason Snelling / Jerious Norwood
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. Buffalo)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -26.8%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +39.5%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -32.2%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan missed practice early in the week to rest his injured toe, but is still expected to start on Sunday after returning to action in a limited basis Thursday in preparation for this week’s game. In facing a Bills secondary that ranks 3rd in the league against the pass, it’s likely he’ll have a difficult time moving the ball up and down the field. Atlanta is likely to rely on their ground game to win this contest as they try to exploit the Bills defensive weakness, which would ultimately cap the amount of production one should expect from Ryan.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner is officially listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game, but after missing the entire week of practice it’d be a big surprise if he suited up. Look for Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood to handle the carries in Turner’s absence with Snelling getting the majority of carries. Buffalo ranks last in the league against the run and allow 165.6 rushing yards per game to be had against them. They’ve also surrendered 18 rushing touchdowns this season, which means Snelling should be in for a productive afternoon. Norwood might even prove himself as a worthwhile play for those desperate for help at the running back position.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 190 yards passing / 1 TD
Jason Snelling – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Jerious Norwood – 45 yards rushing / 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Roddy White – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Michael Jenkins – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Atlanta 20, Buffalo 17 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Saints (Kilroy)

Josh Freeman / Carnell “Cadillac” Williams / Derrick Ward
Antonio Bryant / Maurice Stovall / Kellen Winslow (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.3%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +6.8%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.7%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -24.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers may be forced to pass more than they’d care to in attempt to keep pace with the scoring of the New Orleans Saints, but that doesn’t mean Josh Freeman is a worthwhile start this week. Tampa Bay ranks 25th in the NFL with an average of just 181.7 passing yards per game and their 25 interceptions is 3rd most in the league. Going against a Saints secondary that has come away with the second highest total of interceptions (24) could prove to be quite a bit of trouble for rookie quarterback Josh Freeman. By the end of the day he should finish with a little more than 200 yards passing, but he’s also likely to turn it over a few times and come away with no more than 1 touchdown pass.

Running Game Thoughts: If Tampa Bay were to have any chance at winning this contest it seems their best bet would be to chew up as much clock as possible by maneuvering up and down the field with Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward. The Saints have had their fair share of trouble in defending the run this season, allowing nearly 115 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry, and giving way to 17 rushing touchdowns. The problem is the Buccaneers have averaged just 100.8 yards per game on the ground and have just 4 rushing touchdowns on the year. Nonetheless, Ward or Williams should be able to reach pay dirt in this one as long as Tampa Bay doesn’t get totally shut down.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 185 yards passing / 1 TD
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams – 70 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Derrick Ward – 35 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Antonio Bryant – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Maurice Stovall – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kellen Winslow – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Mike Bell / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Robert Meachem / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey (vs. Tampa Bay)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.3%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.6%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.7%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +9.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees and the Saints had their undefeated season tarnished last week at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, but they should be able to get things back on track in this Sunday’s contest against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in the league and although they rank 8th in the NFL by limiting opponents to 203.9 passing yards per game, the 25 touchdowns passes they have yielded is among the highest totals in that category. Look for Brees to have over 200 yards passing in this one while connecting with his targets in the end zone more than once.

Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay’s defense is among the worst in the league against the run, allowing teams to rush for an average of 158.9 yards per game against them. The Saints offense meanwhile ranks 5th in the league in rushing by producing more than 130 yards per game on the ground. While New Orleans will use all of their options to achieve their success, look for the trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush to all have fairly worthwhile contributions against the Buccaneers. Together they should total well over 100 yards rushing and come away with one or two scores.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 240 yards passing / 2 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Mike Bell – 35 yards rushing / 1 TD
Reggie Bush – 25 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Marques Colston – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Shockey – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 14 ^ Top

Jets @ Colts (Kilroy)

Mark Sanchez / Thomas Jones / Shonn Greene
Jerricho Cotchery / Braylon Edwards / Dustin Keller (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.9%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.3%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.8%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -40.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jets passing attack hasn’t been the catalyst to much of any of their success this season and there is little reason to expect that to change this week. Against the Colts they may need to put the ball in the air more often than they’d like, but they’ll still be best served by keeping it on the ground and trying to work the clock with Thomas Jones as a means of keeping Peyton Manning off the field. All in all, Mark Sanchez would be hard pressed to throw for any better than 225 yards and a touchdown in this battle. If the Jets are to win and ruin the Colts undefeated season it will be due to the efforts of Thomas Jones and their offensive line.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts rank 16th in the league against the run and allow an average of 112.4 yards per game to be had on the ground against them. The Jets meanwhile have the best rushing attack in the league, producing nearly 165 yards per game, and will be best served in this contest to work the ball early and often to Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. With the top ranked pass defense in the NFL, New York should be able to limit Manning to enough of a point that they won’t need to abandon their ground game early in the contest which should result in another afternoon from Jones.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez – 170 yards passing / 1 TD
Thomas Jones – 105 yards rushing / 1 TD
Shonn Greene – 30 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Jerricho Cotchery – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Braylon Edwards – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Dustin Keller – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. New York)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -34.2%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.5%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -39.6%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -30.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: With just two games left, and with their last coming against the Bills, this week’s match-up against the Jets looks to be the toughest one remaining for the Colts as they look to go through the regular season with a mark of 16-0. The Jets passing defense is the highest rated in the NFL and allows just 159.8 yards per game through the air. They’ve also allowed just 8 touchdown passes this year, which is fewest in the league. While the Colts will be able to post their fair share of passing yards against New York (because that’s what their offense does), this is no easy match-up for Manning and his offensive weapons. He should be able to come away with at least one score, but his overall numbers could be down if he doesn’t get needed support from the ground game.

Running Game Thoughts: Support from their ground game is a nice thought for Indianapolis, but it’s unlikely to happen. The Colts rank last in the league with an average of just 86.1 yards per game on the ground. The Jets meanwhile rank 11th in the NFL against the run by allowing 103.0 rushing yards per game. Considering how poorly the Colts have rushed the ball throughout the season, New York should have little difficulty bottling up Joseph Addai while making Peyton Manning work himself to limit in order to keep Indianapolis’ undefeated season alive. Don’t be surprised if the Jets pull of the upset in this one.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 235 yards passing / 1 TD
Joseph Addai – 55 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Pierre Garcon – OUT (hand)
Austin Collie – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dallas Clark – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: New York 17, Indianapolis 16 ^ Top