Colts @ Jaguars (Kilroy)

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.9%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -12.8%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +26.7%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -31.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Colts top rated passing offense will square off against the Jaguars in Jacksonville Thursday night. The question on everyone’s mind concerning Indianapolis is which of their players will play, and how many minutes will they get now that they’ve secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the AFC. With three games remaining on the schedule, and with their undefeated record still on the line, it would seem to be a fair assumption that the Colts stars will play a full sixty minutes this week as long as the game remains competitive.

If they happen to hold a two to three score advantage midway through the third quarter or at the start of the fourth, we may see the likes of Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne then head to the sidelines. For the most part however, expect these guys to remain in the game long enough to make a meaningful contribution to your fantasy squad.

The Jaguars allow an average of 239.5 passing yards per game to opponents, which ranks 26th in the league. They’ve also allowed 20 touchdown passes this season, which is among the higher figures in that category. With the Colts offense averaging nearly 300 passing yards per outing expect Manning to have another productive day even should he get pulled early. In fact, the only reason to doubt he’d have a 300 yard performance is if he went to the sidelines early. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon should also have strong outings against the Jaguars suspect secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Although the Colts have produced 13 rushing touchdowns this season they’ve failed to manufacture much in the way of yardage on the ground. Their 88.0 rushing yards per game ranks 30th in the league, and of all the Colts regular starters Joseph Addai seems the most likely to see reduced playing time throughout the remaining weeks due to his past track record with injuries. He’s also battling a sore knee heading into Thursday night, which gives more reason for caution with him. He’ll remain a threat to score a touchdown in the early goings, but don’t expect too big of a day from as his number of snaps could be more limited than the other Colts starters.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 260 yards passing / 2 TDs
Joseph Addai – 60 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Austin Collie – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dallas Clark – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs

David Garrard / Maurice-Jones Drew
Mike Sims-Walker / Torry Holt / Mike Thomas / Marcedes Lewis (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.7%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.7%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -43.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Colts defense may allow 227 passing yards per game, but the Jaguars air attack has been a bit of a roller coaster ride this season. For every strong outing had by Garrard, like his Week 13 performance against the Texans in which he threw for 2 touchdowns and 238 yards without any turnovers, he’s had as equally disappointing ones – like his performance last Sunday against the Dolphins in which he completed just 42.3% of his passes while throwing for 139 yards with no scores.

Further detracting from Garrard’s value is the injury status of his lead receiver, Mike Sims-Walker. Walker had been battling a knee injury, and more recently a calf injury, that has limited his production over the last 3 weeks to a total of 6 receptions for 64 yards without any touchdowns. The third year wide-out who had been enjoying a breakout campaign throughout much of the season is expected to play on Thursday, but the short week doesn’t bode well for him after he made a surprise start last Sunday despite being listed as doubtful heading into that contest against the Dolphins.

With Walker likely to again be at less than 100%, and with Jacksonville wise to keep the ball out of Manning’s hands by controlling the clock with Maurice Jones-Drew, it’d be a bit of a risk to start any members of the Jaguars passing regime and expect meaningful results.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars are among the better rushing teams in the league, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 127.8 yards per game on the ground. The Colts defense meanwhile ranks 17th in the NFL against the run, yielding just over 110 rushing yards per game. While the Jaguars will likely have to take to the air more often than they’d care to against the high octane offense of the Colts, Jones-Drew should still remain the focal point of their offense and manage to come away with at least one score and 100-125 total yards of offense.

Projections:
David Garrard – 195 yards passing / 30 yards rushing / 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew – 95 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Mike Sims-Walker – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Torry Holt – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Mike Thomas – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Marcedes Lewis – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 17 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Saints (Kilroy)

Tony Romo / Marion Barber / Felix Jones
Miles Austin / Roy Williams / Jason Witten (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -8.4%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.6%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.8%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -27.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints offense has been a juggernaut this season scoring an average of 35.8 points per game. They’ve been held to under 30 points just 4 times, have scored 30 or more points on 9 occasions, and have surpassed the 40 point plateau in 4 outings while being held to no less than 24 points in any of their match-ups this year. It’s doubtful the Cowboys defense will prove capable of limiting the Saints offensive arsenal any better than the rest of the league has this season, which means Tony Romo will have to air it out early and often if Dallas is to have any chance of winning this Saturday in New Orleans.

On the season the Saints secondary is allowing an average of 235.6 passing yards per game. The Cowboys meanwhile are posting an average of 262.5 yards through the air per contest. When factoring these things together the end result should be a very productive outing from Tony Romo and his wide receivers. Look for the Dallas quarterback to finish with nearly 300 yards on the afternoon while making good use of both Miles Austin and Roy Williams. Jason Witten should also have some worthwhile production, although the Saints defense has fared well against opposing tight ends with Washington’s Fred Davis the only one to reach the end zone against them.

Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber’s total of 4 touchdowns up to this point in the season has been a disappointment, but with this game expected to be a high scoring affair he should have a few opportunities to punch one in from inside the 5-10 yard line. Given the fact he hasn’t scored in the last 6 weeks a touchdown can’t be guaranteed for the Cowboys primary back, but if you need to use him he may reward you with better results than he has in recent outings. The Saints have allowed 15 touchdowns to be scored against them via the ground, which should bode well for Barber. Felix Jones will also be involved in the mix, but is less likely to score unless he should take one in from more than 15 to 20 yards out.

Projections:
Tony Romo – 305 yards passing / 2 TDs
Marion Barber – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Felix Jones – 40 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Miles Austin – 115 yards receiving / 1 TD
Roy Williams – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jason Witten – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Mike Bell / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Robert Meachem / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey (vs. Dallas)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.7%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -10.1%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.5%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -5.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been on a monstrous tear in recent weeks, especially during his last three outings. During that span he has thrown for 1086 yards while connecting on 10 touchdown passes. With the Cowboys defense better equipped to handle the Saints troublesome rushing attack there’s good reason to expect Brees’ success to continue. Dallas ranks 21st in the league against the pass, allowing an average of nearly 230 yards per game through the air to be had against them. They’ve also allowed 18 touchdown passes this season and come away with just 9 interceptions. Expect Brees to have another multi-touchdown effort while he too should finish with somewhere around 300 passing yards.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints rushing attack has been a formidable foe this year ranking 5th in the league with an average of 138.9 yards produced per game. The 18 rushing touchdowns they’ve secured are also among the highest total in the NFL with only the Dolphins and Ravens having produced more (tied with 19 apiece). The Cowboys defense has been pretty stout against the run however, limiting opponents to 100.2 rushing yards per game and just 6 touchdowns against them this season. Those numbers suggest that although Thomas, Bell, and Bush may combine for worthwhile production against Dallas it’s doubtful any of them will have a big day individually. Look for the trio to combine for 90-120 rushing yards, but as usual it’s anybody’s guess as to which one comes away with a score.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 315 yards passing / 3 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 60 yards rushing / 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Mike Bell – 35 yards rushing / 1 TD
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 25 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marques Colston – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Shockey – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Dallas 21 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Titans (Kilroy)

Chad Henne / Ricky Williams
Davone Bess / Greg Camarillo / Brian Hartline / Anthony Fasano (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +24.8%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -4.6%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +38.2%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +3.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans defense had been dreadful against the pass in the early goings and still ranks just 31st in the NFL against it, but they have performed better in recent weeks against opposing quarterbacks. Aside from that however, the Dolphins offense really isn’t built around what they can accomplish through the air. They rank 26th in the league with an average of just 178.2 passing yards per game, and the 11 touchdown passes they have is amongst the lower figures in that category. While they may try to take advantage of the Titans questionable secondary, expect Miami to stick by its run first approach. Chad Henne shouldn’t be relied upon for any more than 215-225 yards through the air with a potential touchdown.

Running Game Thoughts: For as poorly as Tennessee has been against the pass, they’ve managed to defend the run pretty well. The 98.8 rushing yards they allow per game ranks 7th in the league, but going against Miami’s 3rd ranked rushing attack will surely be a difficult task for them. The Dolphins offense averages 150.1 yards per game on the ground and their 19 rushing touchdowns is tied for most in the league. While it’s doubtful Ricky Williams will be able to plug away for anywhere near that 150 yard mark, he should be able to push himself towards 100 yards or so while making at least one trip to the end zone. Consider him a safe play this Sunday against the Titans.

Projections:
Chad Henne – 225 yards passing / 1 TD
Ricky Williams – 105 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Davone Bess – 70 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Greg Camarillo – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Brian Hartline – 35 yards receiving / 1 TD
Anthony Fasano – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Vince Young / Chris Johnson
Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Justin Gage / Bo Scaife (vs. Miami)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +11.1%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.8%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.7%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +8.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Like the Dolphins, the Titans offense isn’t built around their air attack. They rank 21st in the NFL with an average of just over 195 passing yards per game. Going against a Miami secondary that yields 233.6 passing yards per contest however, they may have a little more success than usual this Sunday in that category.

Vince Young has been limited in practice this week with an injured hamstring, but is still expected to make the start. As the result of his injury it could mean the Titans lean on their ground game even more so than usual, or it could simply mean Young will stay in the pocket more often and attempt a few more passes than he otherwise would due to the bad hammy limiting his mobility.

If Kerry Collins makes the start it shouldn’t have much affect on what the Titans do offensively, although it could lead to a bit more in the way of production from some of the Titans wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson made it 8 straight games of 100 or more yards on the ground in his outing last week against the Rams and should be able to stretch that streak to 9 this Sunday against the Dolphins. Miami’s defense ranks 13th in the league against the run, allowing a respectable 106.1 yards per game on the ground, but they’ll have to play at a higher level if they plan on bottling up Johnson. With the Dolphins having allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season it’s also likely Johnson will find his way into the end zone as he goes for his 5th multi-touchdown outing in his last 8 contests.

Projections:
Vince Young – 220 yards passing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 115 yards rushing / 1 TD / 30 yards receiving
Nate Washington – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kenny Britt – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Justin Gage – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Tennessee 23, Miami 17 ^ Top

Vikings @ Panthers (Kilroy)

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice / Bernard Berrian / Percy Harvin / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Carolina)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -13.7%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.1%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -27.2%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: With the Panthers defense playing so poorly against the run while limiting opposing teams to just 192.4 yards per game through the air, it seems unlikely Brett Favre will have one of his more memorable outings Sunday night in Carolina. That’s not to say he’ll have a poor performance, but based on the match-up one could reasonably believe the Vikings will prefer to hammer away with Adrian Peterson rather than put the ball in the air more than they have to. With Favre it’s always possible he’ll come away with a touchdown or two, but I wouldn’t expect him to have any more than 200-225 yards passing.

The status of rookie receiver Percy Harvin could also factor into the type of production Favre will have. Harvin missed last week’s contest due to painful migraines and was unable to participate in practice this Thursday for the same reason. He’s thought to be a game time decision at the moment, but when healthy he’s proven to be a popular outlet for Favre as evidenced by his 48 receptions for 681 and 6 touchdowns in 12 games this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Peterson delivered for his owners in the first round of many fantasy league playoffs by producing 137 total yards of offense and scoring 2 touchdowns last week. The outing proved to be his most successful since his Week 10 performance against the Lions and he should be poised for another strong performance this week against the Panthers.

Carolina ranks 26th in the league against the run by allowing opponents to rush for more than 135 yards per game against them. The Vikings meanwhile rank 11th in the NFL with an average of 125 rushing yards produced per game. Given those statistics, Peterson should be able to surpass the 100 yard plateau for the first time in his last 5 outings and come away with at least one touchdown.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 190 yards passing / 2 TDs
Adrian Peterson – 120 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 25 yards receiving
Sidney Rice – 75 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bernard Berrian – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – Likely Game Time Decision (Migraines)
Visanthe Shiancoe – 20 yards receiving / 1 TD

Matt Moore / DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart
Steve Smith / Muhsin Muhammad / Dante Rosario (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.4%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -34.6%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.2%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +24.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Moore will likely make his third consecutive start in place of the injured Jake Delhomme (broken finger), but his performances to date have left much to be desired from the third-year signal caller. The Vikings secondary had been prone to allowing some big plays throughout the season, but they should be able to hold their own against such an inexperienced quarterback playing for an offense built to run the ball more than pass. It’s doubtful anyone would be using Moore in this contest, but if you’re forced to don’t expect much. Steve Smith owners may also come away disappointed when all is said and done.

Running Game Thoughts: The bright spot of the Panthers offense continues to be their ability to run the ball with the duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Unfortunately for owners of either of those two, this week’s contest will likely prove be a difficult one for the Carolina tandem.

Minnesota allows just 86.9 rushing yards per game to be had against them, which ranks 4th in the league. They’ve also held opponents to a league low 3 rushing touchdowns scored. In facing such a difficult match-up, and with little support expected to come from the passing game, it could prove to be a long day for both Williams and Stewart. If you have other options strongly consider them. Otherwise keep your fingers crossed that Williams or Stewart will be able to punch one into the end zone.

Projections:
Matt Moore – 200 yards passing / 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams – 65 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jonathan Stewart – 30 yards rushing / 1 TD
Steve Smith – 70 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Muhsin Muhammad – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dante Rosario – 15 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Carolina 14 ^ Top

Patriots @ Bills (Marcoccio)

Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney/Kevin Faulk (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -24.6%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +43.8%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -32.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -0.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Bill sent home a couple of star players. Brady was banged up and struggled. Moss pouted and “shut it down.” The Patriot mascot was arrested for solicitation. Meanwhile quiet Wes Welker caught another 10 balls. These are the days of our lives. The Pats won, but it wasn’t pretty. The natural inclination is to think that an angry Pats’ passing attack will be unleashed on the Bills, but might that not play right into the Bills’ hands? Tune in on Sunday to watch.

The Bills have been a tremendous ball hawking unit, collecting 25 interceptions while only allowing 10 passing TDs on the season. So it’s a very opportunistic secondary combined with a very poor run defense. Therefore, it would be unwise for the Pats to attempt to get their passing game back on track instead of pounding the ball. However the Pats are known to follow the beat of their own drums, so its not a given what the game plan will be.

Running Game Thoughts: Laurence Maroney continues to impress and it will be interesting to see if his late season run translates into a new contract for the free agent to be. Prior to the season it was practically a foregone conclusion that the disappointing Maroney would not be back in New England, but now the front office will have a difficult decision to make. Maroney has run hard and has showed why he was originally a first round pick, while every other back on the team is around 45 years old. Maroney should be a key contributor this week with a little of the veteran Kevin Faulk tossed in for good measure.

The Bills are ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (170.5) and additionally, have allowed 17 rushing TDs on the season. Every team that has played the Bills has been able to run on them. Start Maroney with confidence. While Belichick may be a little stubborn at times, he is not stupid.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 275 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Randy Moss: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 80 yds receiving
Ben Watson: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 125 yds rushing, 1 TD
Kevin Faulk: 40 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Shawn Nelson
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson (vs. NE)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.4%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.8%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +9.6%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -16.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Is anyone still getting their pop corn ready for 81 v. 81? Terrell Owens may have been buried a little prematurely by some folks, but he’s still not quite the same dynamic player he once was. Its just not very easy getting excited about a Ryan Fitzpatrick led passing offense.

The Pats secondary was abused by the Saints and the Dolphins in recent weeks, but Matt Moore connecting on deep passes last week really opened some eyes to just how low this pass defense has sunk. There have been some injuries in the secondary, but the lack of any real pass rush has give opposing QBs the necessary time to find their open receivers and the Pats really need to fix that problem. Fitzpatrick is mobile, but the Bills o-line is so horrible that they are signing Rams’ cast offs. This should be a good week for New England to get some confidence in their pass rush.

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson have been splitting reps at RB during the last couple of weeks, which has made starting either one a difficult proposition for fantasy owners. Jackson has looked like the better back, but in fairness his style is more suited to dealing with poor o-line play as he is the quicker shiftier back and can get outside when the holes aren’t there. Lynch can break through some tackles but has had difficulty dealing with the constant hits he takes in the backfield. Don’t expect much out of either this week while facing a solid run defense.

The Patriots have played the run very well so far this season. They are allowing only 109.3 yards per game and have only allowed a mere three rushing TDs. Veteran linemen Vince Wilfork and Derrick Burgess should be able to manhandle the inexperienced Buffalo o-line allowing Jerod Mayo free range to drop any Bill runners that get through the line of scrimmage.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 10 yards rushing
Lee Evans: 70 yds receiving
Terrell Owens: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shawn Nelson: 25 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 35 yds rushing
Fred Jackson: 40 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Patriots 24 Bills 13 ^ Top

Falcons @ Jets (Marcoccio)

Chris Redman/Jason Snelling/Jerious Norwood
Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/Tony Gonzalez (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -33.3%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.7%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -36.7%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -34.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s possible that Matt Ryan may return this week, but more likely that former insurance salesman Chris Redman will get another start in his place. Redman has played well since making his return to the NFL and has done a good job the last two weeks in Ryan’s place – but obviously does not possess the talent level of the man chosen near the top of the NFL draft. Roddy White is having an up and down year – expect this week to be a “down” one.

Darrelle Revis should be covering White the majority of the time, so his owners must temper expectations. Revis is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate and has shut down the likes of Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Marques Colston, Terrell Owens and Steve Smith already this season. Kerry Rhodes after a brief “benching” has stepped up his game the last couple of weeks and when he’s on his game he provides a huge boost to the unit. This is the No. 1 pass defense in the league allowing only 160 passing yards per game and a mere 7 TDs on the season. Plan accordingly.

Running Game Thoughts: Like Ryan, starting RB Michael Turner is likely to miss this game as well. Jason Snelling has filled in admirably in his place and is a tough North-South runner, but is far less dynamic than the Burner. Snelling lacks the speed to be a big play threat but can find a hole and gain positive yardage and move a pile if necessary. If the o-line can play reasonably well, Snelling could have some use to fantasy owners in a bind, but there should be plenty of better options out there.

The loss of NT Kris Jenkins has left a gaping hole in the middle of the Jets defense that has been exposed by the opposition at times, but the unit is starting to round back into form despite the major loss. David Harris and Bart Scott are relentless pursuers and strong tacklers making it a difficult unit to gain big runs on. They are the 11th ranked unit (104.3 ypg) and have only allowed 9 rushing TDs on the season.

Projections:
Chris Redman: 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Roddy White: 45 yds receiving
Michael Jenkins: 30 yds receiving
Tony Gonzalez: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Snelling: 55 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Jerious Norwood: 35 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Mark Sanchez/ Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cothery/Dustin Keller (vs. ATL)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +22.2%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +10.4%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.6%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +39.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Mark Sanchez should return this week, but whether it’s the rookie or back-up Kellen Clemmons under center, expect a very conservative passing attack from the Jets. This approach has been working well in recent weeks and there’s no reason to change the strategy now. Since the Jets should not put the ball in the air very often, it’s hard to recommend starting any of the receiving threats in this offense, as even the “star performer” will be a borderline fantasy starter at best. The numbers above do indicate that Dustin Keller just may emerge this week as that “star performer” though.

When the Jets do decide to pass they should be met with very little resistance however. Atlanta has been awful against the pass, ranking 30th in the league while allowing 257.8 ypg and 23 TDs. Should those numbers come down this week, its likely because the Jets game plan and not anything Atlanta does to stop the Jets.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones keeps churning those “old” legs and getting the job done. He went for 99 yards and two TDs against the hapless Buccaneers in Tampa last week and is on pace to finish with his best career totals in rushing yards and TDs. The Jets have made a greater effort to commit to the run to protect their rookie QB and the results have been outstanding. Last week it was Danny Woodhead spelling Jones (instead of Shonn Greene) with decent results and the Jets signed RB Chauncey Washington from the Dallas practice squad. Local reports indicate that the coaching staff is sending a message to Greene to cut down on his fumbling as he has lost 3 this season despite limited carries.

The below average Atlanta rushing defense will need to step up in order to keep the Falcons in the game. They are allowing 117.8 ypg and 10 TDs on the season. They will likely move former Jet safety Erik Coleman up in the box as its no secret that the Jets are looking to run the ball. This may lead to a few opportunities for the Jets to go deep – but will they take advantage of them?

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 195 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Braylon Edwards: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 60 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 100 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 30 yds rushing

Prediction: Jets 20 Falcons 10 ^ Top

49ers @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Alex Smith/ Frank Gore
Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.2%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -7.8%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.0%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +49.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Over the last few weeks, the 49ers have changed their offensive scheme in order to play to QB Alex Smith’s strengths. Smith played in a spread offense while at Utah putting up stats that made him worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft, but has struggled under center since entering the NFL. As a result, Smith now lines up in a shotgun position almost exclusively, many times with the team in 4 WR sets.

It remains to be seen how effective the spread offense will be in the NFL, but a true test will come this week when SF heads to Philly. The Eagles are a team that loves to blitz (36 sacks) and force opposing QBs into mistakes (20 interceptions). If Smith does not read the blitz well and get rid of the ball out quickly, the lack of pass blockers that comes with the spread offense may cause problems for the Niners.

Running Game Thoughts: The new spread offense hurt Frank Gore’s production the first two weeks, but last week HC Mike Singletary and OC Jimmy Raye were smart enough to realize where the bread is buttered and Gore gained over 160 yards rushing. Gore is one of the few true feature backs left in the NFL as he is the main ball carrier, the goal line back and involved heavily in the passing game as well.

On the season the Eagles are allowing only 101.5 ypg on the ground and only 10 TDs, so it’s not an easy matchup for the 49ers. This is an aggressive defenses hat gets after the ball.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Michael Crabtree: 55 yds receiving
Josh Morgan: 30 yds receiving
Vernon Davis: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Frank Gore: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Donovan McNabb/LeSean McCoy/ Brian Westbrook
Desean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin (Kevin Curtis)/Brent Celek (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.2%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.2%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.0%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -24.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: With injuries to Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek (Celek more likely to play than Maclin) the Eagles passing attack is getting a little banged up – but nevertheless, its Deseasn Jackson who is the straw that stirs the drink in Philly anyway. Kevin Curtis may be back to replace Maclin and is always a threat to break a few big plays. McNabb does a good job of spreading the ball around in this modified version of the WCO so on any week role players such as Jason Avant or Reggie Brown could have big games, but the guy that has really emerged as the “go to guy” is Desean Jackson. I have described Jackson in the past as the second most dynamic player with the ball in his hands in the NFL behind Chris Johnson – and he’s closing the gap.

The San Francisco defensive unit is a perfect match for the Philly offense in that they play the run far better than they play the pass, while the Eagles are known for being a passing offense while ignoring the run. Without the injured Nate Clemens, the Niners do not have the manpower to slow down the Philly aerial attack.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook is expected to return this week from his post-concussion syndrome, but if he does he will likely be very limited. Rookie LeSean McCoy and veteran FB Leonard Weaver have been very effective in Westbrook’s absence and should get the bulk of the carries even if Westbrook does play. Westbrook’s presence should give McCoy owners some pause though, as Reid may have some loyalty to a player that has been his best weapon for years.

San Fran is ranked 4th in the league in run defense, allowing 95.0 ypg. while allowing 10 TDs on the season. Patrick Willis ranks only slightly lower than Chuck Norris on the “bad” man list. He could make life difficult for the Birds.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 295 yds passing 3 TDs / 5 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin (Kevin Curtis): 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Desean Jackson: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 65 yds receiving, 2 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 65 yds rushing / 65 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 35 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Prediction: Eagles 28 49ers 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Redskins (Marcoccio)

Eli Manning/Hakeem Nicks/Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -17.9%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.8%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.5%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -28.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: This December hasn’t seen Eli Manning fade away, although the Giants’ playoff hopes seem to be going in that direction. This may just be Eli’s best season ever has he has helped make a very young and inexperienced WR corp. into a formidable group. Steve Smith is an elite route runner with dependable hands. Hakeem Nicks is developing into a big play threat with tremendous run after the catch ability. Mario Manningham plays much faster than he was timed, and can get deep on most secondaries. This could be a top unit in two or three years with some experience.

Washington’s pass defense is currently ranked 4th in the NFL – as the unit has allowed only 188.0 ypg and 13 TDs on the season. After a slow start, the Redskins are starting to generate some pressure on opposing passers, and Eli can be pressured into mistakes. The Skins have a talented and physical secondary in LaRon Landry, Carlos Rodgers, DeAngelo Hall (who could miss this game) and Fred Smoot and matchup well with the Giants skill players. The Redskins pass defense should keep them in the game.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs is starting to pick up his production a little but the Giants still seem reluctant to rely on their running game to carry them as in past seasons. Jacobs doesn’t have the burst or power that he’s shown in past seasons and some radio “experts” are speculating that perhaps he has been hiding an injury all season. Bradshaw hasn’t bee the same since his foot injury went south and Giant fans are likely not expecting him to pick his production back up this season and will need to hope that offseason surgery will take care of the issue.

Earlier this season Washington was holding most opposing runners in check and while they are still only allowing 117.5 ypg and 7 TDs on the season, they have steadily dropped down the NFL rankings and have been allowing opposing runners to produce during the season’s second half.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 35 yds receiving
Kevin Boss: 25 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 30 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Antwaan Randle El/Fred Davis
Quentin Gather (vs. NYG)

NYG Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.0%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -7.6%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.5%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +47.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: I’ve spent a lot of this space pontificating that Jason Campbell will not be back in Washington next season. While that still will likely be the case, he’s been doing his best to change the front office’s mind over the last three weeks. He’s still not a great NFL QB and is prone to some mistakes that cost his team, but he has been productive and has crept into the realm of being considered a low end QB1 in fantasy circles. Two of the young receivers drafted last off-season are starting to take on prominent roles in the offense as WR Devin Thomas and TE Fred Davis have each had a two TD catch game in the last two weeks respectively.

While from a yards allowed perspective the Giants pass defense still looks respectable on the season, they have allowed an incredible 23 TDs on the season. They have let their two NFC East rivals’ QBs light them up the last two weeks and don’t be surprised if the Redskins make it three in a row.

Running Game Thoughts: The Redskins are down to their 4th and 5th string RBs on the season, but surprisingly the running game results have practically been inversely proportional to the starting RBs original depth chart placement. Former Titan FB Quentin Gather scored two TDs last week and he combined with career practice squad player Marcus Mason to give the Skins 82 combined yards rushing from the running back position in last week’s contest.

The Giants are only allowing 100.6 ypg on the season but have given up 17 rushing TDs. Teams have certainly been able to score on the Giants this season whether they choose to do so by land or by air.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 245 yds passing, 2 TDs, 2 Ints. / 20 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD / 15 yards rushing
Devin Thomas: 85 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 30 yds receiving
Fred Davis: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Quentin Gather: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Giants 27 Redskins 24 ^ Top

Browns @ Chiefs (Eakin)

Brady Quinn/Mohamed Massaquoi/Josh Cribbs/Evan Moore
Chris Jennings (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +9.8%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +24.9%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +9.5%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +15.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Browns are 27th in the league in passing averaging 187 yards per game. With potentially poor weather in KC, even a match-up against a weak Chief's secondary is a risky proposition to count on worthy fantasy production from Brady Quinn. WRs Cribbs and Massaquoi have a chance at some big plays but also come with quite a bit of risk. The upside to Cribbs is that he will get some touches at RB as their wildcat weapon. I can see him getting 10-12 touches and his explosive playmaking ability make him an intriguing option for desperate owners. In terms of pure pass catching opportunity, Massaquoi is the big play threat. He’s had big games this year but is unreliable for downfield pass plays if the weather goes south. The Browns have been playing little known Evan Moore at TE the last two weeks. He made a great one-handed catch last week for a big third down conversion and had a six catches for eighty yards in week 13. Moore is a sleeper to post another solid performance.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Jennings was the surprise focal point of the Browns running game over James Harrison getting 20 carries for 73 yards and scoring the first rushing TD for the Browns in over a year. Possibly one of the most amazing stats I’ve ever heard. Jennings is a tempting play given that the Chiefs have allowed close to 400 yards rushing over the last two weeks, but the unpredictable usage between he and Harrison makes for potential boom or bust. I think the Browns feature the run, and that Cribbs and Jennings both get yards, but the game looks like a low scoring affair with few scoring chances to temper results.

Projections:
Brady Quinn: 185 yds
Mohamed Massaquoi: 65 yds rec
Josh Cribbs: 70 yds rushing/30 yds rec
Evan Moore: 45 yds rec
Chris Jennings: 85 yds/1 TD

Matt Cassel/Chris Chambers/Dwayne Bowe/Leonard Pope
Jamaal Charles (vs. BUF)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +4.0%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +35.8%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -8.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +22.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chiefs welcome the return of WR Dwayne Bowe after a four game suspension. Bowe was immediately back to practicing with the first team and is said to be in good shape. Despite the rust, difficult to sit him against a juicy home match-up against the Browns. Chambers has struggled the past two weeks along with the Chiefs pass offense as a whole, so the question is will he fall off the map with Bowe back, or will Bowe’s attention free him up. It’s an age-old question but I don’t see the Chiefs passing game productive enough to support two WRs, so I see Chambers as a low end WR3 with freezing conditions in Kansas City. At TE, Leonard Pope seems to have passed Sean Ryan on the depth chart with four catches for 45 yards last week, but again, Bowe could throw a wrench in to recent target distribution.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles looks like a great bet for another starter-worthy performance in as many weeks. Charles is active in both the running and passing games, is a good bet for 100 plus total yards, and to get in the end zone. Look for Charles to be a top ten producing fantasy RB this week against a Browns defense that just played their Super Bowl against Pittsburg last week. I expect a little bit of an emotional letdown from them this week.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 190 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Chris Chambers: 50 yds
Dwayne Bowe: 70 yds/1TD
Leonard Pope: 40 yds
Jamaal Charles: 85 yds/40 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 17 Browns 13 ^ Top

Texans @ Rams (Eakin)

Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Joel Dreessen
Arian Foster/Ryan Moats (vs. STL)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +4.3%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +33.0%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -5.9%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +9.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Texans enter this week riding the momentum of a 365 yard, two TD shellacking of the Seahawks last week. A matchup against the Rams has their owners licking their chops. Of course, both are absolute must starts but the Rams are not as bad as most think. They rank a respectable 12th in passing defense on the year. Some of that could be that teams jump out to early leads and end up running to victory. However, give them some credit for their improved play as well. Larry Fitzgerald listed the Rams CB Ronald Bartell as one of his toughest adversaries, and they have been getting pressure from DE Chris Long on a consistent basis since the midway point. Beyond the obvious plays of Schaub and Johnson, WRs Davis Anderson and Kevin Walter split targets enough to render both useless as anything other than long shots for a big play. Neither registered fifty yards in Schaub’s 365 yard Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: Rumors are that Arian Foster will get a three game audition for the role of 2010 Texans starting RB. If you are willing to risk your fantasy season on those rumors, Foster has potential for a big day against the Rams 21st ranked run defense. Foster made his mark mostly in the passing game last week with 54 yards receiving on five receptions. Kubiak has been less than forthright throughout the year on the roles of his RBs, which only adds to the risk.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 325 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Andre Johnson: 115 yds/2 TDs
Kevin Walter: 55 yds
David Anderson: 50 yds
Joel Dreessen: 45 yds
Arian Foster: 70 yds/40 yds rec/1 TD

Kyle Boller/Brandon Gibson/Donnie Avery/Brandon Fells
Steven Jackson (vs. HOU)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -2.9%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -3.1%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -8.2%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +18.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Boller has been an even bigger flop than Marc Bulger has, firmly entrenching the Rams as the worst passing offense in the league Boller is averaging just over 100 yards the last two weeks. At WR, Brandon Gibson continues to get the lion share of targets over Donnie Avery and makes a low end WR3 for fantasy purposes in 10-12 team leagues. Brandon Fells is the TE of choice as a receiver, but in such an anemic offense, he is not a recommended choice either despite a weak Texans pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: RB Steven Jackson continues to play through back a problem that has listed him as questionable to start for several weeks. Unless he takes a turn for the worse, it looks like he will play again. Jackson could be the best all around RB in the league on a better team. If he plays, there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to post top five RB production. The Texans have the 31st ranked run defense allowing 156 yards per game, which is remarkable considering how good their offense is, since most teams have to pass to keep up.

Projections:
Kyle Boller: 140 yds/1 TD/2 INT
Brandon Gibson: 60 yds
Donnie Avery: 40 yds
Daniel Fells: 30 yds/1 TD
Steven Jackson: 115 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Houston 31 St. Louis 17 ^ Top

Raiders @ Broncos (Eakin)

Charlie Frye/Louis Murphy/Chaz Schilens/Zach Miller
Justin Fargas/Darren McFadden (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -23.1%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -11.5%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -16.8%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -14.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: With Bruce Gradkowski out, the Raiders have named Charlie Frye as starting QB for week 15, showing the organization may be done with the JaMarcus Russell. Frye will have his hands full in his first start this year facing Denver’s seventh ranked pass defense. The scouting report on Frye is that he is a hard working student of the game with limited arm strength. Based on that, it seems TE Zach Miller and RB Darren McFadden could be primary short passing game targets that stand to benefit the most. McFadden led the team in receiving yards with 84 yards last week in large part due to a 48-yard break away. The Raiders seem to be making a concerted effort to use him in space with short passes since he has struggled to run in traffic. Chaz Schilens and Louis Murphy are the top wideouts but are too inconsistent to rely on especially with a new QB coming in facing a tough secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders struggled to run against a stout Redskin defense last week. With a new quarterback and struggling pass offense in general, they need to run the ball effectively to have any kind of a chance to win. Justin Fargas should continue to see the majority of carries with a McFadden in relief. Denver is weaker against the run ranked 17th, allowing 107 yards per game but they will have the advantage of pressing the line of scrimmage and making Frye prove he can beat their corners in man coverage. The Bronco’s limited the Raiders to a field goal in their week three match-up.

Projections:
Charlie Frye: 150 yds/1 INT
Chaz Schilens: 40 yds
Louis Murphy: 40 yds
Zach Miller: 50 yds
Darren McFadden: 30 yds/40 yds rec
Justin Fargas: 70 yds/1 TD

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Jabar Gaffney/Daniel Graham
Knowshon Moreno (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +0.1%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +33.4%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +1.9%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -23.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Will there be a swan song to Brandon Marshall’s record setting 21 receptions last week? If you own him, you’re certainly starting him to find out. He should see quite a bit of Nnamdi Asomugha but the Raider’s don’t generally use him to shadow the opposing team’s best receiver so Marshall should still post quality totals. Through 14 week Jabar Gaffney, not Eddie Royal, is the team’s second leading WR. By this time, you are what you are and there is no reason to expect that to change. At TE, Daniel Graham has been starting and more productive than Tony Scheffler has but are neither consistent nor productive enough to warrant using this week. The Raiders do a good job covering TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: With Correll Buckhalter nursing an ankle sprain, the door is open for Knowshon Moreno to run all over the Raiders worst ranked run defense giving up an incredible 211 yards per game. Moreno could post top five fantasy numbers for RBs this week.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 265 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 70 yds/1 TD
Jabar Gaffney: 65 yds
Daniel Graham: 30 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 90 yds/20 rec/2 TDs

Prediction: Denver 24 Oakland 10 ^ Top

Bengals @ Chargers (Eakin)

Carson Palmer/Chad Ochocinco/Andre Caldwell/J.P. Foschi
Cedric Benson (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -7.0%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +4.3%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -9.6%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -0.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bengals turnaround has been a product of defense and running rather than the right arm of Carson Palmer. Palmer has not really lived up to preseason expectations as a sleeper top fantasy QB. Palmer is currently the 15th ranked QB and threw for just 94 yards last week at Minnesota. Despite some inconsistent efforts from Palmer, Chad Ochocinco has remained a top WR throughout the year. The Bengals hoped Laveranues Coles could fill the role of T.J. Houshmandzadeh but he has failed to pan out. Rookie WR Andre Caldwell has been good in spots from the slot as well, but neither should be relied upon for fantasy purposes.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson continues to drive the Bengals 7th best rushing attack. Back-up RB Larry Johnson saw work on two series but is no threat to take much work away from Benson. What is a threat is the Charger Defense that has seen a remarkable turnaround in defending the run. After being gashed early in the year the Chargers now rank fifth against the run allowing just over 80 yards per game. Despite a tough match-up, Benson is obviously a must start.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 200 yards/1 TD/1 INT
Chad Ochocinco: 80 yds/1 TD
Andre Caldwell: 40 yds
J.P. Foschi: 25 yds
Cedric Benson: 90 yds/1 TD

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Malcom Floyd/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. CIN)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -4.2%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -16.2%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -16.8%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -12.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chargers appear in great shape now that Vincent Jackson has broken out of his troublesome three-week slump with his seven catch 120-yard romp back to form against the “Sleepless in December” Cowboys. TE Antonio Gates was leaned on during Jackson’s struggles and came through in a big way. Both are such big targets even when defenses have them covered, they can beat the defenders to the ball. Jackson’s revival may be short-lived facing a Bengal secondary that has a reputation for shutting down the opponent’s top receiver. Look for Gates to lead the Chargers in a low scoring defensive struggle.

Running Game Thoughts: LaDainian Tomlinson’s return to fantasy prominence has been a little bit smoke and mirrors. He has made his living at the goaline, a beneficiary of the offense as a whole more than his return to form. He rushed for just fifty yards on 21 carries last week but was once again able to punch in a score. The Bengals are just as tough against the run as the Cowboys are so I think it’s fair to assume a similar struggle, with the hopes of scoring a TD to salvage his day.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 245 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 60 yds/1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 40 yds
Antonio Gates: 85 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 55 yds

Prediction: San Diego 20 Cincinnati 17 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (Eakin)

Josh Freeman/Antonio Bryant/Maurice Stovall/Kellen Winslow
Carnell Williams (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +14.1%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -3.4%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +33.5%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -1.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie QB Josh Freeman had been a marginal fantasy start until running in to the Jets top ranked pass defense last week. Look for him to get back on track in Seattle with a much easier match-up. I think he has a good shot to score once or twice. Antonio Bryant should have a good day here along with TE Kellen Winslow. Seattle doesn’t have a strong secondary, giving up the fourth most QB FPTs per game, and both those guys poise mismatch problems for them. Mark Clayton is hurt and may even be placed on IR. With him out, both Maurice Stovall and Sammie Stroughter will get some targets but not enough for most standard fantasy purposes.

Running Game Thoughts: Carnell Williams rested Wednesday but is probable to play. The Bucs have struggled to run consistently for much of the year. When they are able to run, Caddy is definitely their bell cow. Seattle’s run defense is middle of the pack; the key will be whether or not the Bucs D will keep the score close so they don’t need to abandon the running game.

Projections:
Josh Freeman: 185 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Antonio Bryant: 80 yards/1 TD
Maurice Stovall: 40 yds
Kellen Winslow: 65 yds/1 TD
Carnell Williams: 75 yds/1 TD

Matt Hasselbeck/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Deon Butler/John Carlson
Julius Jones/Justin Forsett (vs. TB)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +4.9%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +21.4%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +11.9%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +2.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been the season many expected from Hasselbeck but some measure of amends can be had in this juicy match against perhaps the league’s worst pass defense. It will have to come without the services of top Seattle WR Nate Burleson who is out with an ankle injury. Both Deion Branch and Deon Butler will help fill the void, but I like the youngster Butler to have the bigger day. It’s time for the Hawks to use the rest of this lost season to give some of the young player’s touches before the draft and training camp 2010.

Running Game Thoughts: Coach Mora remains stubborn about starting Julius Jones over Forsett but as I alluded to above, logic would dictate the younger guys seeing more playing time as the season winds down. I think Forsett has a big game because he see’s so much action in the passing game. He has the open field ability to cause major headaches for a slower Bucs LB core and unorganized secondary.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 300 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 65 yds/1 TD
Deon Butler: 70 yds/1 TD
John Carlson: 40 yds
Julius Jones: 65 yds
Justin Forsett: 45 yds/55 yds rec/1 TD

Prediction: Seattle 27, Tampa Bay 21 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Lions (Mack)

Kurt Warner / Beanie Wells
Tim Hightower / Larry Fitzgerald / Anquan Boldin / Steve Breaston (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +29.2%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +25.9%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +29.3%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +29.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kurt Warner had one of his best four-game stretches of his career going into last week’s game at San Francisco. He entered the game having thrown 12 TDs and no INTs in those four games. But the Niners stunned many in the fantasy football world, as they held the conductor of the high-powered passing attack of the Cardinals to a paltry 178 yards, zero TDs and 2 INTs. Hopefully that awful performance didn’t cost you a playoff win. If it didn’t, this week will certainly make up for Warner’s first game without a TD pass since week 15 of 2008. Detroit is dreadful in every defensive category, including giving up the most passing yards and passing TDs. This game is tailor made for a fantasy football playoff bonanza.

Warner’s struggles last week obviously put a damper on the productivity of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Boldin had the better game of the two, but that’s not saying much when your QB throws for only 178 yards. Fitz tweaked his knee in the San Francisco game, but it looks like he will play. I believe Arizona’s passing game will take its frustrations out on the overmatched and frightfully bad Detroit secondary. Start all your Cardinals, including Steve Breaston.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s tough to decipher who’s the better running back this week, Beanie Wells or Tim Hightower. Like the rest of the Arizona offense, the RB duo had an ugly game, as both lost a fumble in San Francisco territory. This game will prove to be an offensive explosion, meaning there should be enough production to go around for everybody to be relevant options this week. Wells seems to be the back that gets the goal line carries, while Hightower remains a nice receiving option out of the backfield. In fact, Hightower’s 53 receptions are second-most in the NFL by a RB. If you have Wells or Hightower on your team, they’re both good RB2 choices this week. But if I had to choose, I’d go with Hightower due to his role in the passing game.

Projections:
Kurt Warner – 335 yards / 3 TDs
Tim Hightower – 65 yards rushing / 50 yards rec / 1 TD rec.
Beanie Wells – 55 yards / 1 TD rushing
Larry Fitzgerald – 120 yards / 1 TD
Anquan Boldin – 85 yards / 1 TD
Steve Breaston – 65 yards

Daunte Culpepper / Maurice Morris
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt (vs. Arizona)

ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.0%
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.2%
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +12.6%
ARZ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +22.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: It was reported that Daunte Culpepper was upset because he didn’t start on Thanksgiving, only four days after incumbent Matthew Stafford suffered a partial dislocation of his shoulder. Well, based on Culpepper’s play this season, there’s little reason to believe he was worthy. He’s appeared in five games this year, yet he only has 1 TD and has thrown 4 INTs. That’s not the kind of play that will endear you to the coaching staff or fantasy owners. Culpepper’s play will be further hampered by an already struggling running game that lost its starter in Kevin Smith. Arizona’s pass defense lives off the reputation of its individual performers, but this unit is ranked 28th in the league against the pass. While that may be an advantage to most opposing pass offenses in the NFL, that’s not the case with Detroit. Their only weapon, Calvin Johnson, can be easily taken out of the game since no other threat exists on that side of the ball for the Lions. There’s no reason why Arizona DBs Bryant McFadden and Antrel Rolle shouldn’t keep Johnson in check. Johnson seems to still get some level of production in situations such as this, but he could very easily end up disappointing you as well. So be mindful of that risk if you have to start him. And the other so-called weapons for the Lions—Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt—should be waiver wire fodder in your league.

Running Game Thoughts: I’ll make this quick: don’t start any Detroit running back this game. Starter Kevin Smith was lost for the season last week, and his projected replacement, Maurice Morris, is nothing special. Perhaps the biggest indictment of the ineptitude of Detroit’s running game is Smith was their best RB by far, yet he had weaknesses and limitations in his game that would make Rashaam Salaam blush. Morris won’t get more than 10 touches in this game, so he’s a non-factor. Change-of-pace RB Aaron Brown is nothing more than a special teams player. Stay away from all Lions RBs this week and into the foreseeable future.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper – 185 yards / 1 TD / 3 INTs
Maurice Morris – 35 yards
Calvin Johnson – 75 yards / 1 TD
Dennis Northcutt – 40 yards
Bryant Johnson – 30 yards
Will Heller – 20 yards

Prediction: Arizona 34, Detroit 10 ^ Top

Bears @ Ravens (Mack)

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Johnny Knox / Devin Aromashodu / Earl Bennett / Greg Olsen (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.0%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -22.9%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.1%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -9.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: If there’s a more frustrating starting-caliber fantasy QB this year than Jay Cutler, I haven’t seen him. Cutler is a turnover waiting to happen in 2009. He’s thrown at least 1 INT in eight of the last nine games, some of which were complete head-scratchers. He had a tough go of it last week against Green Bay’s outstanding defense; those difficulties will continue this week as the Bears pay a visit to Baltimore and its 11th ranked, ball-hawking pass defense. The Ravens have taken a step back defensively and are not as good top to bottom as the Packers. But they remain a formidable foe and one that should present Cutler with the opportunity to continue his up and down play.

Starting WR Devin Hester more than likely will miss his second straight game. Devin Aromashodu stepped up big in his place last week, and his 8 receptions were only one less than his career total going into the game. Johnny Knox is low-end option, but Earl Bennett has been truant all year; don’t play him. Greg Olsen is a roller coaster player, and it’s that kind of inconsistent play that you don’t need this time of year. With Cutler’s struggles, it’s been tough predicting which Bear WR is worth starting from week to week. I’ll go out on a limb and say Aromashodu doesn’t come near to what he did last week, leaving Knox as the only viable starter from this bottom-feeder list.

Running Game Thoughts: To put Matt Forte’s struggles this year in even more perspective, he has only one game of 100-plus rushing yards in his last 18 games dating back to last season. Plus, he has only 1 rushing TD in his last six games. It’s tough to pinpoint why he’s stunk up the joint this year, but suffice it to say his days as a #1 fantasy RB for 2009 have looooong since passed. His reception numbers are nothing to get excited about either, furthering the argument against starting him for the balance of the season. And going up against Baltimore’s 6th ranked run defense, perhaps the decision to bench him becomes an even bigger no-brainer.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 210 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT
Matt Forte – 45 yards rushing / 20 yards rec
Johnny Knox – 65 yards
Devin Aromashodu – 50 yards
Earl Bennett – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 40 yards / 1 TD

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice
Derrick Mason / Kelley Washington / Demetrius Williams / Todd Heap (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.0%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +2.6%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.5%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +1.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been seven games since Joe Flacco has thrown for more than one TD. That’s ugly. There’s a chance those pedestrian numbers extend into this week, as Chicago’s defense is quietly ranked 8th against the pass. Flacco only had to throw the ball 20 times in the dismantling of Detroit last week. The Bears’ defense will put up a better fight, so Flacco will probably be called on to do more against Chicago. Derrick Mason is surgical in his route running, and he will continue to be the lead dog in Baltimore’s passing game. I like Mason as a solid low-end #2 WR this week. Kelley Washington and Demetrius Williams are non-factors, but Todd Heap is good option this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice is as important to his team as any other RB in the league. He leads the Ravens in both rushing and receiving, and his big play ability has transformed him from a RB3 at the start of the season to a RB1 today. Even though he has only 1 rushing TD in his last four games, don’t let that deter you from starting him. Chicago’s defense can be had. They’ve surrendered at least 110 yards on the ground in eight straight games. Keep in mind, too, that this is the same defense that allowed Ryan Grant to go off for 137 yards and 2 TDs, the first time he’s run for multiple TDs in a game since week 12 of the 2007 season. Rice is a rock solid start this week.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 220 yards / 1 TD
Ray Rice – 80 yards / 1 rushing TD / 40 yards rec
Derrick Mason – 70 yards / 1 TD
Kelley Washington – 25 yards
Demetrius Williams – 15 yards
Todd Heap – 50 yards

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Chicago 10 ^ Top

Packers @ Steelers (Mack)

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / James Jones / Jermichael Finley (vs. Pittsgurgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -10.6%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -32.4%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +0.9%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -22.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Stop the presses. Aaron Rodgers went without a TD pass last week for the first time since his goose egg in week 9 last season. Expect that to change against Pittsburgh. Rodgers is simply too good and has too many weapons on offense to make it two rough games in a row. Look for him to have a bounce-back game. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are always solid options, despite both of them experiencing a few bumps in the road at times this year. It’s obvious to all that Pittsburgh’s secondary has not been the same since Troy Polamalu’s injury. Green Bay’s passing attack is just the kind of team that can take advantage of Pittsburgh’s shortcomings. Start your Packers and expect nice production from all the usual suspects.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant ran for multiple TDs in a game for the first time since late in the 2007 season. He’s been up and down all season and has mostly disappointed his fantasy owners, but his performance last week certainly puts him back in the good graces. That being said, I don’t like his chances of repeating that productivity this week. Pittsburgh, even with its occasional breakdowns on defense, remains a force against the run. They’re the top-ranked run defense in the NFL and have given up only 4 rushing TDs all season. That’s enough factual information I’d need to temper my expectations for Grant. He’s a low-end #2 RB at best.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 260 yards / 2 TDs
Ryan Grant – 50 yards
Donald Driver – 105 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 80 yards / 1 TD
James Jones – 35 yards
Jermichael Finley – 20 yards

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Mike Wallace / Heath Miller (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.5%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -33.4%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.6%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +10.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The stench of that miserable Pittsburgh/Cleveland game last week remains in the nostrils of all Ben Roethlisberger owners. He didn’t throw a TD, nor did it throw an interception. But his patience and confidence in the pocket were both shaky, and his O-line surrendered eight sacks. Perhaps being under siege all evening long had its affect on Big Ben to the point that he was rendered totally useless—and so were his receivers.

If Ben thought he saw a swarming defense last week in Cleveland, wait until he gets a load of the Packers’ #3 ranked pass defense. Charles Woodson will make the day tough for Hines Ward, and Tramon Williams has improved his play since replacing Al Harris and played well. His battle against Santonio Holmes will be the one to watch. Holmes has scored in two of his last three games after not scoring in more than two months prior. He’s playing well, but his productivity could be limited this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall had a three-game stretch in October when he ran for 4 TDs. He’s only had 2 totals TDs in the seven games since, and with the recent struggles of the offensive line in Pittsburgh, that slide could continue into the fantasy playoffs. There are few teams better defensively than Green Bay. Each yard is a battle for opposing teams, and RBs have found it tough earning their paychecks the week they play Green Bay. The Pack have the league’s 3rd-ranked run defense, and like Pittsburgh, have given up only 4 TDs on the ground. Mendenhall won’t get much this game, so keep your expectations in order.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 190 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT
Rashard Mendenhall – 50 yards
Hines Ward – 70 yards
Santonio Holmes – 45 yards
Mike Wallace – 20 yards
Heath Miller – 55 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 17, Pittsburgh 13 ^ Top