Steelers @ Browns (Mack)

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Santonio Holmes / Mike Wallace / Hines Ward / Heath Miller (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.6%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +44.5%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.8%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +24.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: When these two teams hooked up earlier this year, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 417 yards, the most since a 433 yard performance against Denver back in 2006. Cleveland has lost its last seven games, but the Browns have actually played respectable defense recently. They were torched through the air last week against San Diego, but they held Cincinnati the previous week to 96 passing yards and Baltimore to 146 passing yards in week 10. We’ll see if Big Ben and crew can exploit the Browns on Thursday.

Roethlisberger’s task of leading the reeling Pittsburgh passing game will be made difficult if Hines Ward doesn’t play. The team’s leading receiver has a hamstring injury that will limit his effectiveness if he plays, but if he doesn’t play, Mike Wallace will take his spot and be the deep threat he’s been all season. And don’t look now, but Santonio Holmes has scored in the last two games after not scoring in nine straight. Cleveland’s 32nd ranked defense could be in retreat mode for most of the game, as Holmes could be the driving force of the passing game. You should keep in mind, though, that there could be inclement weather in Cleveland. Snow and wind are possibilities, both of which could hinder the passing game somewhat.

Running Game Thoughts: The five games leading up to last week’s contest were okay for Rashard Mendenhall from a yardage standpoint, but they lacked the TDs necessary to make him the consistent low-end #1/high-end #2 RB he’s turned into. His 103 yard effort last week against Oakland, coupled with the fact that he’s had at least 20 carries in 4 of the last 5 games translates into Mendenhall being a valuable commodity right now. The Browns have had trouble stopping the run most of the year, and with DT Shaun Rogers out for the year, that only makes their problem worse. Mendenhall was held to only 62 yards in the first meeting this year, but he did score a TD. And again, with the weather playing a potentially important role, he should be counted on and given every opportunity to at least put up those kinds of numbers this week. The Browns have given up 14 rushing TDs, so expect Mendenhall to get in the end zone this week as well.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 195 yards / 2 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 110 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 75 yards / 1 TD
Mike Wallace – 40 yards
Hines Ward – 20 yards
Heath Miller – 50 yards / 1 TD

Brady Quinn / Jerome Harrison
Josh Cribbs / Mohamed Massaquoi / Chansi Stuckey (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.2%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -32.9%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.0%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -20.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Ok, who was that impersonating an NFL-caliber QB last week for the Cleveland Browns? Couldn’t have been Brady Quinn, right? Well, actually it was. In fact, Quinn had a solid performance against San Diego, throwing for 271 yards, 3 scores and no interceptions. And while Pittsburgh remains one of the league’s toughest defenses, one needn’t look any further than last week’s game against Oakland when Bruce Gradkowski played great in the second half against the Steelers. Cleveland’s offense is just as putrid as Oakland’s, so conventional wisdom says if the Raiders can succeed against the Steelers, the Browns should too. We’ll see if that is indeed the case.

As it stands now, however, be cautious about starting a Cleveland Brown with any level of confidence. Their receivers are still works in progress, and each game in fantasy football this time of year is simply too big to risk playing subpar players against a formidable opponent. Table any thought you may have of starting a Cleveland receiver.

Running Game Thoughts: Can you believe that after 12 games the Cleveland Browns only have 3 rushing TDs? That’s an incredible number, but one that hammers home the struggles of this team’s ground attack. With Jamal Lewis on IR, the rushing duties fall on the shoulders of Jerome Harrison, who’s nothing more than a 3rd down back in this league. His fantasy production will be kept at a minimal this week and into the foreseeable future. Perhaps his biggest contribution can be made in the passing game. He did have 7 receptions last week and scored on two of those catches, so there is value there. Just keep your expectations in line this week.

Projections:
Brady Quinn – 210 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Jerome Harrison – 45 yards rushing / 35 yards rec.
Mohamed Massaquoi – 65 yards / 1 TD
Josh Cribbs – 50 yards
Chansi Stuckey – 40 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 13 ^ Top

Lions @ Ravens (Mack)

Daunte Culpepper / Kevin Smith
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt / Will Heller (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.6%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -21.3%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.2%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -5.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Detroit finally decided to put rookie Matthew Stafford on the shelf to rest his ailing non-throwing shoulder. Daunte Culpepper takes the reins of a sputtering offense that’s ranked last in the league in passing and has the least TD passes. That’s not a good combination when you’re facing a Baltimore defense that’s coming off a not-so-good game against Green Bay last week. Culpepper has appeared in four games this year, but has only been able to produce 1 TD and 2 INT in those games. Expect the same kind of struggles in this game.

Calvin Johnson, after battling injuries early in the season and pissing off his fantasy owners in the process, has come on of late, scoring in three straight games. It’s no secret that he’s the only threat in the Detroit passing game, and the fact that he still seems to put up respectable numbers recently is a testament to his talent. Baltimore’s defense, and specifically its secondary, is a shadow of its former self. Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers torched them last week. Now, I’m not saying the Lions can do the same, but the Ravens’ secondary is the obvious vulnerable spot on the team. Expect Johnson to put up okay numbers, but expect him to struggle with the rusty Culpepper under center this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Is there a more painful team to watch run the football than the Detroit Lions? This team lacks quality players on the O-line, and its RB’s NEXT big run this year will be his FIRST big run this year. The Lions haven’t been able to run on average defenses this year, so the chances of them finding running room against Baltimore’s 6th-ranked run defense are slim and none. Kevin Smith is one of those runners that hardly ever has a signature play in a game, but oftentimes you look up and he’s got double digit points thanks to his involvement in the passing game. I’d be conservative with my expectations for him this week. He won’t get much on the ground against Baltimore, so his only hope is to play a key role as a receiver. Only then will he have any kind of value as a RB2 or flex player this week.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper – 170 yards / 1 TD / 3 INTs
Kevin Smith – 45 yards rushing / 30 yards rec.
Calvin Johnson – 70 yards / 1 TD
Bryant Johnson – 35 yards
Dennis Northcutt – 15 yards
Will Heller – 10 yards

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +28.1%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +11.8%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +29.9%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +34.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco hasn’t thrown multiple TDs in a game since week 6 at Minnesota. That’s not the kind of production fantasy owners need this time of year, especially from a guy who started this year red hot. But if there’s a team that a QB can get well against, it’s the Detroit Lions. They’re the 32nd-ranked pass defense and have given up a league-leading 28 TDs. Their secondary is awful, they have no consistent pass rush and they only have 8 INTs on the year. Other than that, the Lions are a great defense. Expect Flacco to have a good game.

A player who should have a field day is Derrick Mason. He is a tactician when it comes to running routes. Mason will have Detroit’s DBs lost all afternoon, and he should enjoy a productive day. Mark Clayton has only 10 receptions in the last four games, but he’s even a viable option in deeper leagues. Likewise for TE Todd Heap. He’s been scoreless since week 2, but no other team has surrendered more TDs to the tight end than Detroit. If you’r e in a TE-mandatory league, start Heap without reservation.

Running Game Thoughts: If he hasn’t already done so, Ray Rice this week will solidify his place as a bona fide top-10 RB in next summer’s fantasy drafts. This dual-threat RB will be all over the field, running and catching and giving his owners all kinds of production. Strangely, though, Detroit’s run defense is one of its strengths. Sure, “strength” is a relative term when it comes to the Lions, but they’ll take what they can get. Detroit is ranked 19th against the run, but it won’t be Rice’s ground game that will give the Lions fits. His receiving skills will be the centerpiece of the Baltimore offense. He’s the team leader in receptions, and it is that skill set that will give him the ability to perform well this week.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 275 yards / 2 TDs
Ray Rice – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD / 50 yards rec
Derrick Mason – 115 yards / 1 TD
Mark Clayton – 30 yards
Todd Heap – 60 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Baltimore 27, Detroit 10 ^ Top

Packers @ Bears (Mack)

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / James Jones / Jermichael Finley (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.6%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.1%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.8%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -1.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers is one of the most reliable and consistent QBs in fantasy football. His play is mostly mistake-free and his weapons are some of the best and most explosive in the league. What’s not to like about Rodgers? With 9 TDs and 2 INTs in the last four games, Rodgers is maintaining the hot streak that he’s had all year. That’s great news for fantasy owners.
Meanwhile, Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have become arguably the best receiving tandem in the NFL in 2009. Their play recently—especially Driver’s—has been the thing of fantasy gold. And even though Jennings only has one TD in his last five games, he’s a true threat on every pass play. Obviously, Chicago’s dominate defense is a thing of the pass, plus they’ve given up 21 TD passes. Rodgers will have Chicago’s secondary for lunch. If the wind cooperates, expect a huge game from Rodgers and crew.

Running Game Thoughts: Considering the great season that Aaron Rodgers is having, it’s peculiar why Ryan Grant hasn’t had a better season. He a solid RB2, but it seems he leaves a lot on the table each week. His good games are normally followed up with average games, frustrating fantasy owners in the process. But Grant is what he is—a RB2 that won’t have very many eye-popping games with off-the-chart numbers.

The Monsters of the Midway have resembled more like the Midgets of the Midway with the way the Bears have been playing defense during the past couple years. They’re ranked 25th against the run and have shown vulnerabilities all over. Grant should produce against this team; just don’t expect more than what Grant has given you all season.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 285 yards / 3 TDs
Ryan Grant – 70 yards
Greg Jennings – 120 yards / 2 TDs
Donald Driver – 65 yards / 1 TD
James Jones – 40 yards
Jermichael Finley – 35 yards

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Johnny Knox / Earl Bennett / Devin Hester / Greg Olsen (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.8%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.7%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.9%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +16.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Entering last week’s game against St. Louis, Jay Cutler had thrown at least one interception in seven straight games. The cynic in me says he only threw the ball 17 times last week—that’s why he didn’t throw a pick. Cutler has been a nightmare for fantasy owners this year. Too talented to bench in most weeks and too erratic to count on every week. I’m guessing that if he was your starter at any point this season, you at some point fortified your QB position with someone else. But if you didn’t, you should, especially this week.

Green Bay has the league’s #1 defense, and with Cutler’s “#1 WR” Devin Hester a big question mark this week, Cutler’s productivity will be miniscule. CB Charles Woodson may get an interception or two this week. Bench Cutler and hope your back-up performs well, because Cutler certainly isn’t this week.

Running Game Thoughts: As has been the case in 2009, Matt Forte feasted last week on an inferior defense. His best games this year have come against St. Louis, Cleveland and Detroit—three of the worst defensive units in the league. Forte will resort back to his below-average self this week when the 4th-ranked Green Bay defense comes to town. The Packers have allowed only 4 rushing TDs all year, so don’t expect much from Forte. He wasn’t involved much in the passing game last week, but he has played a much bigger role in that capacity recently. And with the chance of Devin Hester not playing growing with each day he doesn’t practice, Forte’s receiving skills are sure to come in handy. That will be the only way Forte salvages productivity this week.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 210 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Matt Forte – 40 yards rushing / 35 yards rec
Johnny Knox – 65 yards
Earl Bennett – 35 yards
Devin Hester – 30 yards
Greg Olsen – 45 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Chicago 13 ^ Top

Bengals @ Vikings (Mack)

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Laveranues Coles / Andre Caldwell / JP Foschi (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.2%
MIIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -34.3%
MIIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.1%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +30.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: In the last eight games, Carson Palmer has thrown for multiple TDs in a game once. One time. If Palmer is anything more than your #2 QB, you’re probably not in your fantasy playoffs. That kind of consistently average play at QB will have you watching your league’s post season from the comfort of your sofa. Minnesota’s defense is most vulnerable through the air, as its 21st ranking would indicate. The Vikings secondary continues to be short-handed with CB Antoine Winfield yet to return from an injury sustained earlier this season.

Chad Ochocinco has been Cincy’s one-trick pony in the passing game. Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell have had a difficult time replacing TJ Houshmandzadeh, but Chad has picked up the slack and given his owners production worthy of weekly-start status. And such is the case this week as well. Chad is a low-end #1/high-end #2 WR this week. Start him with confidence.
Running Game Thoughts: If Cedric Benson owners were worried about Larry Johnson becoming a nuisance, last week’s game plan dispelled that worry. Benson’s 36 carries last week against Detroit confirmed two things: that he’s healthy enough to handle that kind of workload again, and that he remains the workhorse of the team. In fact, he’s had at least 34 carries in three of the last four games. With opportunities like that, his production is sure to increase.

With all of that being said, Benson and the Bengals are facing a tough Minnesota run defense that’s ranked 3rd in the league and given up the fewest rushing TDs in the NFL. Benson may get his 25-30 carries, but he may not do much with them. It’s a tough call to bench Benson, but if your roster includes a player such as LeSean McCoy, or a Jamaal Charles, you may want to entertain those options because Benson could be in for a long day.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 185 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 60 yards
Chad Ochocinco – 75 yards / 1 TD
Laveranues Coles – 45 yards
Andre Caldwell – 35 yards
JP Foschi – 15 yards

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice / Bernard Berrian / Percy Harvin / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -3.6%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -22.8%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -17.8%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -7.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: I love how so-called experts are looking at Brett Favre’s performance from last week and are predicting a December swoon much like last year. The guy has one bad game and all of a sudden he’s showing his age? That’s crazy. Favre continues to be a must-start for those who are fortunate to have him on their team. This week will certainly prove tough, but he’s been way too consistent this year to play musical chairs with him. Cincy’s defense is a formidable foe and will make it a tough challenge for the Vikings passing game, but start Favre with confidence.

Percy Harvin hasn’t practice much this week and is a game-time decision. Keep an eye out on that situation. Sidney Rice remains the primary target of Favre’s, and his battle with CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph will be must-see TV. Visanthe Shiancoe is a mismatch nightmare for most linebackers; he is a must-start this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Arizona bottled up Adrian Peterson pretty good last week, holding him to his lowest yardage output since week 13 of his rookie season. Even though he’s battling a few injuries, the Vikings may make a concerted effort to get their RB the ball early and often. It won’t be easy because Cincy fields the #2 rush defense. Peterson’s fantasy worth has increased this year due to his involvement in the passing game. He already has more receptions this year than in any other season, so his lack of ground production can always be supplemented with his work in the passing game. Peterson’s obviously a no-brainer starter.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 240 yards / 2 TDs
Adrian Peterson – 75 yards / 1 TD
Sidney Rice – 80 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 50 yards
Bernard Berrian – 45 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 60 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Minnesota 24, Cincinnati 13 ^ Top

Bills @ Chiefs (Eakin)

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Terrell Owens/Lee Evans/Shawn Nelson
Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 13.4%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 26.7%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 13.5%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: 21.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Interim coach Perry Fewell made two major changes upon replacing Dick Jauron as the Bills head coach. First was changing starting QB in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick that did seem to kick-start Terrell Owens’s season until running in to shut down extraordinaire Darrelle Revis last week. The Chiefs have no such talent in the secondary, which makes both Owens and Lee Evans good starts this week. One glaring deficiency for the Bills offense is at the TE position. Shawn Nelson leads all TEs on the team with just eleven receptions for 120 yards. That’s one game for the likes of Vernon Davis or Dallas Clark. They pick up some of that slack by getting the RBs involved but they need more from that position to become a better offense, especially in the red zone where Owens is really the only target with significant size.

Running Game Thoughts: Fred Jackson at RB over Marshawn Lynch. Jackson lit the fantasy world on fire to start the season during Lynch’s suspension but faded in to near obscurity once Lynch returned. In his first game back as the starter, Jackson failed to recapture the early season glory with just 31 yards on 13 carries while Lynch managed 60 yards on six carries and found the end zone against the Jets. The inconsistent performances of each back muddies the water moving forward, but Jackson should get the majority of carries again and have a great opportunity to excel against a Kansas City defense that is one of the poorest in the league against the run. Treat Jackson as a good RB2 option and even Lynch as a possible flex option for this tasty match-up.

Prediction:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 235 yds/1 TD
Terrell Owens: 85 yds/1 TD
Lee Evans: 60 yds
Shawn Nelson: 15 yds
Fred Jackson: 65 yds/40 rec /1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 40 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Matt Cassel/Chris Chambers/Lance Long/Sean Ryan
Jamaal Charles (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -24.4%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 45.8%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -33%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -1.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: the Chiefs passing game has really struggled of late coming in to week 14 facing a Bills team that has defended the pass well all year. The Chiefs starter Matt Cassel was pulled in the second half ending week 13 with 10/29 for 84 yards and two INTs. Since Brodie Croyle didn’t fare any better Cassel will continue to start. WR Chris Chambers remains the top target for perhaps the last time with Dwayne Bowe expected back form suspension week 15. Given the Chiefs struggles to pass the ball, and the Bills defense that is best attacked by the run, this is not a good week to start any Chiefs passing players. Chambers is the only value and he’s a marginal WR3 coming of his two receptions for eleven yards last week.

Running Game Thoughts: For the second week in a row, Jamaal Charles has a much better match-up. He’s been serviceable as a RB2 since taking over the starting role, including his 60 yards and a score last week. The Bills are dead last in rushing defense giving up a stunning 172 yards per game on the ground. Start Charles with a high degree of confidence and hope that the Chiefs start getting him more involved in the passing game as well.

Projection:
Matt Cassel: 190 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Chris Chambers: 70 yds/1 TD
Lance Long: 50 yds
Sean Ryan: 30 yds
Jamaal Charles: 85 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Buffalo 21 Chiefs 17 ^ Top

Redskins @ Raiders (Eakin)

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Fred Davis
Quinton Ganther/Rock Cartwright (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -2.3%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 34%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 4.3%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -37.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell has quietly become a serviceable QB option for fantasy owners since Sherm Lewis took over play-calling duties for the Redskins. An impressive feat considering he is doing it without his top target TE Chris Cooley and the top two RBs entering the season. On the season, Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are the teams leading receivers. Moss is the poster child for boom-or-bust WRs and is tough to rely on for a weekly basis. Second year top draft choice Devin Thomas has come on in recent weeks including a seven catch, hundred yard, two score career day in New Orleans week 13. It remains to be seen if Thomas can produce consistent quality performances, but if there is a Redskin WR to hang your hopes on this week he is the best bet. Former USC All-American TE, Fred Davis, has filled in well for Cooley and deserves consideration for owners in need of a TE. Keep in mind, the Raiders have covered TEs well this year making Davis a riskier play this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The breaking news this week is that Quinton Ganther will get the start over Rock Cartwright. Cartwright struggled in two games as a starter. The Raiders are weak against the run so there is a good chance for the skins to have post big rushing totals, but expectations are that both backs will share the load by committee, rendering each risky plays. Ganther has averaged nearly six yards per carry in spot duty, making him a RB2 with upside. Cartwright should is a marginal flex play with too much of risk for use in critical fantasy playoff weeks.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 275 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Santana Moss: 65 yds
Devin Thomas: 85 yds
Fred Davis: 50 yds/1 TD
Quinton Ganther: 70 yds/1 TD
Rock Cartwright: 40 yds/25 rec

Bruce Gradkowski/Chaz Schilens/Louis Murphy/Zach Miller
Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas (vs. SF)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -17.7%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -16.4%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -6.9%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -29.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The intriguing season of the Oakland Raiders continues to prove that the adage “that’s why they play the games”. Three out of four of Oakland’s wins have come against playoff caliber teams Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and now Pittsburg. They have yet to capitalize any of their surprising victories to win back-to-back games. QB Bruce Gradkowski lit up the once vaunted Steelers secondary for 300 yards and three TDs. Rookie WR Louis Murphy led the comeback with big catches down the stretch to cap of an impressive 128 yard two score performance. As much as the Raiders passing game has improved under Gradkowski, none of them have been reliable enough to make anything more than a desperation play. The Redskins, with the fifth ranked pass defense allowing 190 passing yards per game, are capable of putting the Raiders back on ice.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Fargas is getting the bulk of the work but McFadden and Bush steal just enough carries to make Fargas unremarkable for fantasy purposes. Fargas rushed for a respectable 63 yards on 15 carries against the Steelers league leading run defense in week 13. Maybe Fargas has better upside facing a lesser Washington run defense but he’s not a guy likely to break of big runs, he just consistently pounds out 3-4 yards between the tackles. For him to be starter worthy you probably need him to score, which is a risky proposition in a Raider offense that doesn’t put a ton of points up week to week.

Projections:
Bruce Gradkowski: 200 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Chaz Schilens: 50 yds
Louis Murphy: 60 yds
Zach Miller: 40 yds/1 TD
Darren McFadden: 35 yds/20 rec
Justin Forsett: 65 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Washington 20 Oakland 17 ^ Top

Cardinals @ 49ers (Eakin)

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 2.1%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 0.4%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 3.0%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -18.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cardinals seem to be hitting their stride at the right time coming off an impressive humbling of Vikings in week 13. Warner torched the Vikes with Boldin (7 rec. 98 yds 2 TDs) early and Fitzgerald (8 rec. 143 yds 1 TD) late, in a game that was surprisingly one sided. Now, a divisional match that earlier in the year promised to hold playoff implications looks rather ho-hum thanks to the 49ers fall from grace. The Cards are rolling and the Niner’s struggle in coverage, making this a juicy match-up for all Cardinal offensive skill players.

Running Game Thoughts: Beanie Wells didn’t post as many FPTs as starter Tim Hightower despite getting more touches. Wells is a power runner that doesn’t match-up well against the formidable Williams Wall of the Vikings that is best ran around than through. The Niner’s run defense is stiff enough to make Hightower and Wells below average starts this week. They could be saved by some scoring opportunities since the Cards are likely to throw it all over the field this week.

Projection:
Kurt Warner: 300 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 110 yds/2 TDs
Anquan Boldin: 90 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 30 yds
Ben Patrick: 10 yds
Beanie Wells: 40 yds/1 TD
Tim Hightower: 45 yds/30 rec

Alex Smith/Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: 7.9%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -4.1%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: 14.1%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: 21.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Niner’s pass game is a working in the fantasy world if not real life football. The spread attack has made QB Alex Smith a viable match-up play capable of 300 yards and a couple scores any game during their soft playoff schedule. TE Vernon Davis is posting numbers to rival not just TEs but any WR in the game going scoring in three straight games and with over a hundred yards twice in the last three games and three times in the last five. WR Michael Crabtree is yet to breakout with a huge day but is consistently posting 50 -70 yards per game. Both he and Josh Morgan should post solid numbers again in a game that will be a shoot-out against a defense that is easier to pass than run on.

Running Game Thoughts: The Niner’s are so enamored with their ability to finally pass the ball they have put winning on the backseat. The Seahawks were ecstatic to see RB Frank Gore, who torched them for 202 yards earlier in the year, get only nine carries for 25 yards last week. Gore has now failed to reach 50 yards in three straight games since transitioning to the spread offense. If you have Gore, you might not have better options but he is now unreliable and will be facing one of the league’s best run stuffing defenses in a game that could force the Niner’s to abandon the run more than they already have.

Projection:
Alex Smith: 265 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 70 yds/1 TD
Josh Morgan: 65 yds
Vernon Davis: 80 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 50 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Arizona 31 San Francisco 24 ^ Top

Giants @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Donovan McNabb/LeSean McCoy
Desean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin/Brent Celek (vs. NYG)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.1%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -6.0%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.9%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +44.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: This coming offseason the Eagles may face an interesting dilemma if they fail to advance far in the playoffs. McNabb has played well this season (2,427-16-6), but the offense did not skip a beat (in fact on some levels it was more productive) when highly drafted backup Kevin Kolb took over for the injured McNabb in the early season. McNabb is still an upper tier QB, but age and injuries have taken away his running game which was a dangerous part of his skill-set in the past and he has been inconsistent at times. When he is on his game this offense flows as well as any unit in the game, but some weeks the passing game just seems out of synch. Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are two young emerging stars at WR, and perhaps a move to Kolb will allow them all to grow together. Jackson missed last week’s game after suffering a concussion the week prior, but is expected to return this week –keep an eye on his status. Also note the Giants tendency to allow opposing TEs to have big games and consider getting Brent Celek in your line-up.

The Giants beat their rival Cowboys last week but the depleted Giant secondary did not contribute much to that victory. Tony Romo threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against the Giants who at one point had the top ranked passing defense but have fallen down the rankings steadily for the last several weeks. They are still ranked seventh in passing yards allowed (199.0 ypg), but their 21 TDs allowed in 12 games says that they are easily beaten through the air. They will be best served by trying to keep Desean Jackson in front of them in New Jersey this weekend in order to try and limit big plays or that TD total could grow.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook may return this week from his post-concussion syndrome, but if he does he will likely be very limited. Rookie LeSean McCoy and veteran FB Leonard Weaver have been very effective in Westbrook’s absence and should get the bulk of the carries even if Westbrook does play. Like the Cowboys, the Eagles tend to abandon the run early so it may be the second week in a row that the Giants run defense looks good merely because it wasn’t really tested.

New York is ranked 15th in the league in run defense, allowing 102.6 ypg. They have allowed 15 TDs in 12 weeks including long TD runs to both McCoy and Weaver in the Week 8 matchup. Under-rated tackle Barry Coefield doesn’t get much recognition in a defense loaded with bigger names but with fellow “up the middle” players like Antonio Pierce and Kenny Phillips lost for the season, Coefield will be a key to the run defense going forward.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 245 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 5 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Desean Jackson: 65 yds receiving
Brent Celek: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 35 yds receiving

Eli Manning/ Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw
Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Hakeem Nicks/Kevin Boss (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.9%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -12.3%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -19.7%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +45.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning peaked during the first five weeks of 2009, but also played well against the Falcons and the Cowboys sandwiched around a stinker against Denver during the last three weeks. Manning is playing with pain in his foot – and it’s well known that December has not been kind to him – but to his credit he has emerged as the leader of this offense. He is largely responsible for making the Giants biggest question mark heading into this season – their WRs – into a true strength of the team. Third year WR Steve Smith is only a handful of catches away from breaking the Giants record for receptions in a season and has been a steady presence for Eli to rely on all year. TE Kevin Boss wasn’t used much earlier this season but has really stepped up his game and has been a factor in recent weeks. Like the Giants the Eagles also have a tough time stopping opposing TEs so consider Boss if your options are limited.

The Eagle defense harassed Eli during the last meeting between these two teams, and have generally fared well against the younger Manning in past years. The Eagles are allowing 205.3 ypg and 18 TDs on the season. While they can be susceptible to big plays at times, this is a team that loves to blitz (33 sacks) and force opposing QBs into mistakes (20 interceptions). Eli will need to be sharp and smart if the Giants wish to beat their second consecutive division rival.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs turned short swing pass into a 70+ yard TD catch and run last week against Dallas. In other strange news, it snowed in Dallas last week. Not sure which occurrence is more unbelievable. Ahmad Bradshaw has struggled since injuring his foot but ran hard last week in the Meadowlands and will be needed down the stretch for the Giants playoff run. This offense works best when they can hit opposing defenses with a one two punch in the running game.

On the season the Eagles are allowing only 98.8 ypg on the ground and only 8 TDs, so it’s not an easy matchup for the Giants. Will Witherspoon acquired from the Rams at the trade deadline has helped shore up the middle of the run defense and Trent Cole, known more for his pass rushing ability, has developed into a pretty good run stopper as well.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 275 yds passing, 3 TDs, 2 Ints.
Steve Smith: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 50 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 60 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 55 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving

Final Score: Giants 27 Eagles 24 ^ Top

Chargers @ Cowboys (Marcoccio)

Philip Rivers/LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles
Vincent Jackson/Malcolm Floyd/Antonio Gates (vs. DAL)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.2%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.1%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.0%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -12.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vincent Jackson presents a difficult match up for any defensive back as he has elite deep speed in a 6’5”, 230 pound frame, but has disappeared the last few weeks much to the dismay of his fantasy owners. TE Antonio Gates has picked up Jackson’s slack during that time much to the joy of his fantasy owners. Jackson has improved each season and is a gifted player. One would have to think that he’ll turn his season back around. Although it’s risky during this important part of the fantasy season to start players that have not been producing recently Jackson seems due for a big game and I’d recommend starting him. Unfortunately I will be facing him in my opening round playoff matchup this week, further cementing his chances for a big game from him.

The Dallas defense ranks 20th in passing yards allowed, allowing 225.9 yards per game this season with 17 TDs. Teams have been able to move the ball through the air against this team despite a talented pass rush and secondary. Expect the Chargers to attempt to exploit this weakness as Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates are all big fast targets that should pose problems for even the physical Dallas secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: After a slow return following his ankle injury that caused him to miss a few weeks, LaDainian Tomlinson was buried by many fantasy pundits. However, he has scored 8 TDs over the last 6 weeks. He’s obviously not the same back he once was, but is still effective and his numbers improved once the Charger offensive line returned back to health. Tomlinson is no longer elusive and his burst is not what it was in years past but he still has that nose for the endzone and the Chargers know it. As long as expectations are lowered he’s still a fantasy asset.

Dallas has been a solid run defense this season, allowing 102.5 ypg, and has managed to keep opposing backs from scoring (only 5 rushing TDs allowed). Former Falcon Keith Brooking and veteran line backer Bradie James lead the team in tackles with their relentless pursuit of the football. Don’t expect LT2 to post big numbers against the Cowboys, but perhaps he can take a plunge into the endzone.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 285 yds passing 2 TDs
Malcolm Floyd: 40 yds receiving
Vincent Jackson: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 35 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
LaDainlian Tomlinson: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Felix Jones
Roy Williams/Miles Austin/Jason Witten (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -9.3%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +7.9%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -15.7%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +1.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Miles Austin has amassed over 900 yards and has scored 9 TDs on the season, with most of those stats coming in his 8 starts. Pretty impressive. Miles is big and fast and has been just what the Cowboys needed (and more) to replace Terrell Owens’ production. People expect Tony Romo to falter in December but last week’s loss cannot be pinned on him. He’s been pretty consistent over the course of the season, so we’ll see if he can maintain that consistency or be subject to yet another late season swoon.

San Diego’s pass defense is allowing 204.4 ypg and has given up 14 passing TDs on the season. Shawn Merriman’s return to health has helped the pass rush become more effective which has improved the defense as a whole. Romo’s tendency to make mistakes has not been as prevalent this season – but strange things happen in December in Dallas.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys seem to have something against running the ball despite having 3 capable backs and a massive o-line. They inexplicably abandon the run almost every week. Barber fumbled early last week and was more or less placed on the shelf while the Boys tried to run Felix Jones on outside sweeps, when they ran at all, despite the Giant injuries to the middle of their defense. San Diego does not have a strong run defense and if the Cowboys once again do not attempt to exploit that weakness, the coaching staff should come under major scrutiny.

San Diego was stunned by the loss of NT Jamal Williams before the season got under way, and their early season run defense suffered. They are still not a great run defense, but have bounced back a little since mid-season. They are currently the 21st ranked run defense, allowing 117.8 ypg and 8 TDs on the season, but have only allowed 1 rushing TD since Week 9.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 225 yds passing 1 TD, 2 Ints. / 15 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Miles Austin: 70 yds receiving
Jason Witten: 45 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Prediction: Chargers 28 Cowboys 24 ^ Top

Panthers @ Patriots (Marcoccio)

Matt Moore/D’Angelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
Steve Smith/Mushin Muhammad/Dante Rosario (vs. NE)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -0.4%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -12.8%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +10.0%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -15.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: In a surprise move Jon Fox did not trot Jake Delhomme out on the field last Sunday with a broken finger on his throwing hand claiming that “Even throwing left handed, Jake gives us the best chance to win.” Instead Matt Moore was sent out to play game manager and let’s face it, no QB could really perform much worse than what Jake Delhomme has done with the Panthers this season. Moore didn’t do much but got a win over the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs while the running game carried the offense. Expect the Panthers to attempt to do the same this week and limit Moore’s attempts.

The Pats secondary has been abused by Drew Brees and the Saints (which could be expected) and Chad Henne and the Dolphins (not so much to be expected) the last two weeks, but should catch a break this week with the conservative Panthers, playing with an inexperienced QB, coming to Foxboro. One of the contributing factors to the Pats secondary being exposed each week, has been the non-existent pass rush allowing QBs the time to find the open WR. Perhaps the Richard Seymour to Oakland trade wasn’t such a smart idea after all.

Running Game Thoughts: D’Angelo Williams was a late scratch from last week’s game with a bum ankle, allowing Jonathan Stewart to finally see a full load. Stewart produced like his owners always knew he could, very well. A back Stewart’s sizes just shouldn’t be able to move that fast. Williams should be back this week and the Panthers will need both healthy if they have any chance at all of handing the Patriots their fourth consecutive loss. D’Angelo Williams is arguably the second best pure runner (after Adrian Peterson) in the NFL today. Of course one of the backs that one could make the argument for over Williams, just happens to be his back-up. It’s a wonder that the Panthers ever throw.

The Patriots have played the run effectively in 2009 allowing 107.9 yards per game and incredibly only 3 TDs on the season. This, however, will be their stiffest test so far as the Panthers will run at them for as long as their defense keeps them in this game. It should be an interesting matchup which could go a long way in determining the outcome of the game.

Projections:
Matt Moore: 195 yds passing, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 70 yds receiving
Mushin Muhammad: 30 yds receiving
Dante Rosario: 45 yds receiving
D’Angelo Williams: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 45 yds receiving
Jonathan Stewart: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney/Kevin Faulk (vs. CAR)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -13.4%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +16.5%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -27.2%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -13.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Earlier this season in this piece I stated that:
“Perhaps this is the real Tom Brady. While everyone was expecting Brady to return to 2007 form, it seems that season may have been the true outlier in what is still a remarkable career for Brady. Prior to 2007, Brady was one of the NFL’s best QBs and one of the better fantasy QBs as well (you could pencil him in for 27-30 TDs each year), but he wasn’t a “great” fantasy QB.”

I’m not looking for a pat on the back here, as I would also the have to invite myself to be kicked for the many times I was wrong as well. However this does seem to be the case. Brady is still a very good NFL QB and fantasy QB – but those 2007 type seasons just don’t come around very often. This is still a passing offense that you would want to own a piece of. Just don’t go thinking that owning Brady and Moss is an automatic punched ticket to your fantasy championship game.

Carolina has a very good pass defense on paper (6th ranked, allowing 192.4 ypg). While they do have some talent on defense and in the secondary, bear in mind that these statistics also reflect the short fields that opposing offenses were given due to Jake’s many turnover’s and the fact that their run defense has been dreadful. Don’t fear the Panther pass defense
.
Running Game Thoughts: Laurence Maroney is finally living up to the promise that he showed during his rookie season after a couple of really disappointing years. He’s running hard and showing the power-speed combo that he did while sharing the load with Corey Dillon back in the day. Sammy Morris is finally healthy but so far he hasn’t cut into Maroney’s workload in a significant way, but with the Pats I guess one never really knows when the tide will turn.

Maroney gets a good matchup this week when the 26th ranked Panther defense comes to Massachusetts. The Panthers are allowing 133.3 ypg and have given up 12 TDs on the season. The loss of interior linemen Ma’ake Kemoeatu, Corvey Irvin and Louis Leonard has depleted the middle of their defense making them vulnerable to power running teams. Expect Belicheck to attempt to exploit this, while setting up play-action passing.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 305 yds passing 3 TDs
Randy Moss: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ben Watson: 55 yds receiving
Laurence Maroney: 85 yds rushing
Kevin Faulk: 30 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving, 1 TD

Final Score: Patriots 31 Panthers 17 ^ Top

Saints @ Falcons (Kilroy)

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Mike Bell / Reggie Bush
Marques Colston / Robert Meachem / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +19.3%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +6.6%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.3%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +43.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is coming off two of his best outings of the season and there is no reason to think he won’t build off of that success this Sunday in Atlanta. The Falcons secondary ranks 29th in the league allowing more than 250 passing yards per game, with 20 touchdowns scored against them, and just 8 interceptions. The Saints meanwhile have the third best passing attack in the NFL and have seen Robert Meachem emerge as a dangerous threat at wide receiver in recent weeks.

In his last five games, Meachem has recorded six of his eight touchdowns for the season and will look to score in his sixth straight outing on Sunday. Marques Colston, who has scored in each of the last two games, will remain a worthwhile play as well. Devery Henderson might even be a worthwhile option in this one as a #3 fantasy wide out as the Saints offense should be able to move the ball at will against Falcons.

Atlanta has also had difficulties defending tight ends throughout the year with Kevin Boss, Kellen Winslow, and Brent Celek combining for 14 receptions, 173 yards, and 3 touchdowns against them the last three weeks, so look for Jeremy Shockey to also have a productive day.

Running Game Thoughts: For all the troubles Atlanta’s defense has had against the pass, they aren’t stopping the run all that well either. They rank 23rd in the NFL with an average of 119.8 rushing yards per game posted against them. The Saints and their fifth ranked rushing attack should have no troubles moving the ball against this unit. Pierre Thomas (quadriceps) and Mike Bell (knee) have both been limited in practice this week however, although Bell’s injury is believed to be the more serious of the two, which could result in more touches than usual for Thomas.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 315 yards passing / 3 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Mike Bell – 40 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Marques Colston – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Robert Meachem – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Shockey – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD

Chris Redman / Jerious Norwood / Jason Snelling
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -10.3%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.7%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.4%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -27.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: At the moment, Chris Redman is penciled in as the starter for the Falcons at quarterback this Sunday as Matt Ryan continues to recover from a turf toe injury that kept him from playing last week. Ryan has not yet been ruled out for this week’s contest however, so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he’s under center for Atlanta when they face the Saints. Ryan has participated in the team’s closed walk-through practices on both Wednesday and Thursday, but remains questionable for the game.

Even if Ryan were to start the Falcons are still a banged up group on the offensive side of the ball. Not only is Michael Turner expected to miss another game with a high ankle sprain, but three of Atlanta’s starting offensive linemen are injured as well.

Expect Redman to get the starting nod, but it’s doubtful he’ll be worth a start in fantasy leagues even though he should manage to put up decent yardage in a game the Falcons will be forced to pass once they fall behind on the scoreboard.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner continues to miss practice as the result of a high ankle sprain he originally suffered in Week 10 against the Panthers. His status for this week’s contest remains uncertain although it’s doubtful he’ll be available. Even if he should suit up he won’t be at 100% and it’d make him a risky start in fantasy leagues – especially after his attempt to return early from the injury in Week 12 versus the Buccaneers resulted in a 12-carry, 33-yard outing before he re-aggravated the injury.

Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling are again expected to share the running back duties in the Falcons backfield, although neither player is an attractive option. With the Saints likely to be leading throughout most of the contest Atlanta will have to abandon their running earlier than they’d like.

Projections:
Chris Redman – 250 yards passing / 1 TD
Jerious Norwood – 55 yards rushing / 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jason Snelling – 30 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Roddy White – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Atlanta 10 ^ Top

Broncos @ Colts (Kilroy)

Kyle Orton / Knowshon Moreno / Correll Buckhalter
Brandon Marshall / Eddie Royal / Tony Scheffler (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -10.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.0%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.4%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -39.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton may not have been the “sleeper” some expected him to be, but he has had some solid performances throughout the year. In this week’s game against the Colts he’ll have the opportunity to do so again as Denver will be forced to rely on his arm in order to keep up with the Colts air attack. That’s not to say the Broncos won’t be able to establish the strong rushing attack Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter have provided them with in recent weeks, but if the Broncos are to keep themselves in this one Orton will need to come up with a few big plays of his own.

He’s more of a high risk-high reward type of option in this match-up, but if you’re forced to start him you may be rewarded with a solid outing.

Running Game Thoughts: Knowshon Moreno has been handling the lion’s share of repetitions in the Broncos backfield lately and is coming off his two most productive outings of the season from a fantasy perspective heading into this week’s contest against the Colts. Although the Broncos will need their quarterback to make a few big plays in this one, Denver will need to stick by their rushing attack in order to keep the Colts defense honest. If the Broncos fall behind early it will greatly hinder the type of production one could expect from Moreno, but as long as they remain within striking distance he should handle 15-20 carries for 80-90 yards with a possible score.

As for Buckhalter, he’ll continue to get his looks, but his number of carries may be limited due to the possibility of Orton attempting more than 30 passes this week.

Projections:
Kyle Orton – 215 yards passing / 1 TD
Knowshon Moreno – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Correll Buckhalter – 30 yards rushing / 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Brandon Marshall – 105 yards receiving / 1 TD
Eddie Royal – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Scheffler – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. Denver)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -29.4%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -10.0%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -18.6%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -34.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Broncos defense may rank second in the NFL with an average of just 180.2 passing yards allowed per game, but the Colts offense relies heavily on their passing attack and will surely surpass that yardage total. While the Broncos are ranked just 16th in the league against the run, they are holding opponents to a respectable 3.9 yards per carry. Given that, and the fact Indianapolis’ rushing attack ranks dead last in the NFL with an average of 87.7 yards per game on the ground we know the Colts will continue to move the ball through the air despite what the statistics might suggest they attempt.

Peyton Manning may not be in for a 300-yard performance this week, but he should come through with no worse than a 250-yard outing and a couple of touchdown passes despite facing a difficult opponent.

Running Game Thoughts: Donald Brown’s season has been hindered by injuries in recent weeks, eliminating the primary threat to Joseph Addai as the Colts primary ball carrier throughout the year. With Brown missing last week due to a chest injury and not having practiced yet this week, it appears Addai will again be in line to handle almost all of the carries out of the Colts backfield.

Although Addai is yet to rush for more than 79 yards in any game this season, his 9 rushing touchdowns – not to mention the 3 he has by way of reception – have made him a valuable contributor in fantasy leagues. He should be reliable for 80-100 total yards this week, but the Broncos have allowed just 7 rushing touchdowns this season, so a score from Addai can’t be guaranteed.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 260 yards passing / 2 TDs
Joseph Addai – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 80 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Austin Collie – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Dallas Clark – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Denver 17 ^ Top

Jets @ Buccaneers (Kilroy)

Kellen Clemens / Thomas Jones / Shonn Greene
Jerricho Cotchery / Braylon Edwards / Dustin Keller (vs. Tampa Bay)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +10.0%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +20.8%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +15.1%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +9.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: With Mark Sanchez out due to a knee injury, Kellen Clemens will make his first start of the season this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 11th in the league against the pass, allowing 205.7 yards per game through the air, but they have also given up 24 touchdown passes. The Jets offense doesn’t rely on their passing game all that much however, as they rank 30th in the NFL with an average of just 156.3 passing yards per game. Furthermore, they don’t need to rely on passing all that heavily considering they have the top ranked rushing attack in the league.

Given this, and the fact Tampa Bay’s defense is one of the worst in the league against the run, expect the Jets to limit the number of passing plays they go with which will keep Clemens and his targets numbers down this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The thought process here is fairly simple. The Jets have the best ground production in the league at an average of 168.6 rushing yards per game on the ground. The Buccaneers defense meanwhile ranks 31st in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 160.1 rushing yards per game to be had against them. Factor in Kellen Clemens making his first start of the season in place of the injured Sanchez and one has all the reason in the world to expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene this week. Both players should find success with Greene warranting consideration as a flex option due to having such a favorable match-up.

Projections:
Kellen Clemens – 175 yards passing / 1 TD
Thomas Jones – 120 yards rushing / 2 TDs
Shonn Greene – 45 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Jerricho Cotchery – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Braylon Edwards – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD
Dustin Keller – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Josh Freeman / Carnell “Cadillac” Williams / Derrick Ward
Antonio Bryant / Maurice Stovall / Kellen Winslow (vs. New York)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -31.5%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.7%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -34.5%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -32.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh Freeman has shown some promise as a rookie, but he’s coming off his worst outing of the year (0 TDs, 5 INTs last week against the Panthers) and will now go against the top ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Jets have allowed just 7 touchdown passes to be thrown against them this season and surrender only 167.0 passing yards per game. In facing such a difficult opponent, expectations for Freeman and his wide receivers this Sunday should be kept very low.

Running Game Thoughts: Cadillac Williams had his highest rushing total of the season last week (17 carries, 92 yards) and will need to follow it up with another strong outing if the Buccaneers are to mount any type of meaningful effort against the Jets on Sunday. The opportunity for him should be there, as both teams are likely to find most of their success on the ground in this contest. Starting any member of the Buccaneers offense has been a risk this year for the most part, but if you’re in a pinch Williams might be able to fill-in as a decent #2 option at the running back position in Week 14.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 165 yards passing / 0 TDs / 20 yards rushing
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Derrick Ward – 20 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Antonio Bryant – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Maurice Stovall – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kellen Winslow – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New York 24, Tampa Bay 10 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Jaguars (Kilroy)

Chad Henne / Ricky Williams
Davone Bess / Greg Camarillo / Brian Hartline / Anthony Fasano (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.2%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.5%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +28.0%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -27.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Miami Dolphins surprised everyone as Chad Henne through for 335 yards and 2 touchdowns in their upset victory against the Patriots. The outing was an unusual one for Henne however; as it marked the first time this season he threw for more than 241 yards in a game, and just the second time he’s surpassed the 219 yard mark.

Against the Jaguars 24th ranked pass defense, Henne should be able to have another productive day. Jacksonville’s allowing 242.1 passing yards per game to be had against them and have yielded 20 touchdowns through the air. Although the Dolphins offense relies heavily on their rushing attack, expect Henne to put up 200 plus yards through the air and come away with at least 1 touchdown pass.

Running Game Thoughts: Ricky Williams had his streak of three straight games with 20 or more carries and 100 or more rushing yards snapped last week against New England, but he’ll have the chance to get back to those numbers again in Week 14. The Jaguars defense ranks 11th in the league against the run, but have teams averaging 25.8 carries per game against them. With the Dolphins being such a ground oriented offense, expect Williams to handle nearly 20 carries and push for 100 yards on the ground. He’ll also remain a threat to score even though Jacksonville has allowed just 7 rushing touchdowns this season.

Projections:
Chad Henne – 225 yards passing / 1 TD
Ricky Williams – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Davone Bess – 70 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Greg Camarillo – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Brian Hartline – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Anthony Fasano – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs

David Garrard / Maurice Jones-Drew
Mike Sims-Walker / Torry Holt / Marcedes Lewis (vs. Miami)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -7.3%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.3%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +12.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Dolphins pass defense has been pretty weak this year, ranking 25th in the league with an average of 242.9 passing yards per game to be had against them. Jacksonville’s offense relies mostly on their ground game however to put points on the board, as their air attack has produced just 10 touchdowns this season.

With Mike Sims-Walker missing practice time this week with an injured calf, and having been a disappointment the last two weeks while playing through a knee injury, he becomes a less attractive option than he had been for fantasy owners earlier in the year. He has an attractive match-up against the Dolphins and may come away with a touchdown, but he can’t be relied upon as more than a number three wide-out like he was before the injuries became a concern.

Running Game Thoughts: Jones-Drew may be coming off his most disappointing three game stretch of the season, but he still remains one of best options at running back in fantasy leagues. The Jacksonville offense ranks 7th in the league with an average of 130.5 yards per game produced on the ground and their 16 rushing touchdowns is 3rd most in the NFL. The Dolphins defense meanwhile has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season, which is 5th most in the league, so chances are Jones-Drew will come away with a score in this one while producing 100 or so all-purpose yards.

Projections:
David Garrard – 225 yards passing / 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Mike Sims-Walker – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Torry Holt – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Marcedes Lewis – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Miami 17 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Texans (Kilroy)

Matt Hasselbeck / Julius Jones / Justin Forsett
T.J. Houshmanzadeh / Nate Burleson / John Carlson (vs. Houston)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.9%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.2%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -8.9%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +18.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Hasselbeck sat out of Wednesdays practice to rest his sore throwing shoulder, but returned on Thursday and will start this weekend’s contest against the Texans. Houston’s defense is allowing 214.3 yards per game through the air this season and has surrendered 16 touchdown passes. By comparison, the Seattle offense has produced an average of 223.8 passing yards per game and tossed it into the end zone 16 times.

With Hasselbeck playing through the injury he’ll be a bit of a risky start, but he should be able to come away with over 200 yards through the air while posting at least 1 touchdown.

Running Game Thoughts: The Houston defense hasn’t been able to stop the run all that well this year. Opponents are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against them while averaging 118.9 yards per game on the ground. Opposing rushers have been able to find the end zone against them frequently as well, as the 14 rushing touchdowns Houston has allowed is 5th most in the league.

Julius Jones returned from injury last week to take back his starting position in the backfield and will due so again this Sunday versus the Texans. As a whole, the Seahawks rushing attack has been a major disappointment, ranking 27th in the NFL with an average of just 93.4 yards per game on the ground, but they have had their moments. Given such a favorable match-up, this should again be one of Jones’ more successful outings of the season.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck – 215 yards passing / 1 TD
Julius Jones – 100 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Justin Forsett – 25 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
T.J. Houshmanzadeh – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Nate Burleson – 70 yards receiving / 0 TDs
John Carlson – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD

Matt Schaub / Chris Brown / Ryan Moats
Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / James Casey (vs. Seattle)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +10.8%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -4.4%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +26.3%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +3.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Texans offense relies heavily on their passing game to move the ball up and down the field, and with the Seattle Seahawks allowing an average 243.5 yards per game to be thrown for against them there is little reason to expect anything different in this week’s outing. Matt Schaub should have himself a productive day despite playing with a brace on his non-throwing shoulder with Andre Johnson have a productive outing as well.

Running Game Thoughts: Even with Steve Slaton being placed on injured reserve last week due to a neck injury and numbness in his arms, the Texans backfield picture hasn’t gotten any clearer. Chris Brown is now working as the starter, but despite that notation he had just 6 carries last week in comparison to the 12 had by back-up Ryan Moats.

All in all, it might be for the best that the Texans backfield is so muddled as it helps owners avoid the temptation to start either player. Houston ranks 29th in the NFL with an average of 89.0 rushing yards per game, making it a wise decision to keep both Brown and Moats on the bench. It’s possible one of them will come away with a touchdown against the Seahawks, but don’t bank on it.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 260 yards passing / 3 TDs
Chris Brown – 50 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 10 yards receiving
Ryan Moats – 40 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 1 TD
Andre Johnson – 125 yards receiving / 2 TDs
Kevin Walter – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
James Casey – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Houston 24, Seattle 17 ^ Top

Rams @ Titans (Kilroy)

Kyle Boller / Steven Jackson
Donnie Avery / Danny Amendola / Brandon Gibson / Randy McMichael (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +28.7%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.6%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +44.5%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -1.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Marc Bulger will miss his third straight game with a broken leg while back-up Kyle Boller has taken limited snaps in practice this week due to a thigh injury. Donnie Avery meanwhile has also been limited this week with a shoulder injury. Both Boller and Avery are expected to play, but their injuries and the Rams woeful performance in general this season make neither player a worthwhile option despite the favorable match-up they have against the Titans 31st ranked passing defense. If you have other options it’d be a good idea to go with them.

Running Game Thoughts: Along with Boller and Avery, Steven Jackson continues to miss practice time as well due to an achy back. This week is his third straight in which he has not practiced with the team as he rests his body, but he is still expected to start on Sunday. He’s performed well in his last two outings despite the missed time and should remain a worthwhile #2 option at running back as he shoulders most of the load for the Rams offense.

Tennessee’s defense has defended the run well, limiting opponents to just 100.3 yards per game on the ground, but Jackson should be able to finish with somewhere around 100 total yards on the afternoon with the possibility of punching one into the end zone.

Projections:
Kyle Boller – 210 yards passing / 1 TD
Steven Jackson – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Donnie Avery – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Danny Amendola – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Brandon Gibson – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Randy McMichael – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Vince Young / Chris Johnson
Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Justin Gage / Bo Scaife (vs. St. Louis)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.1%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +28.5%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.8%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +1.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young and the Titans 5-game win streak was snapped last week as they fell short in a 27-17 loss against the undefeated Colts. Nonetheless, Young continued to have himself a productive day as he finished the afternoon with 241 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. Against the Rams 17th ranked pass defense he should have himself another worthwhile outing, but expect the Titans to feed the ball to Chris Johnson throughout the day which will ultimately limit the overall production from Young and his wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: The Titans rushing attack ranks second in the league, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 165.8 yards per game. The Rams defense meanwhile allows opponents an average 146.2 yards per game on the ground while gaining 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. They’ve also surrendered 17 rushing touchdowns, which is the second highest total in the league. Needless to say, Chris Johnson should have himself an excellent day as he goes for his eighth straight 100-yard game against the Rams.

Projections:
Vince Young – 175 yards passing / 1 TD / 15 yards rushing
Chris Johnson – 130 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 20 yards receiving
Nate Washington – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kenny Britt – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Justin Gage – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Tennessee 27, St. Louis 14 ^ Top