Jets @ Bills (Marcoccio)

Mark Sanchez/ Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cothery/Dustin Keller (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -22.0%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +47.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -33.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +6.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: As expected, rookie QB Mark Sanchez was reined in by Rex Ryan last week as the Jets’ offensive game plan was extremely conservative. Don’t expect the Jets to put the ball in the air very often this week either, as Buffalo possesses a very opportunistic secondary and a very poor run defense. It would be a very risky move to start any player involved in the Jets pass attack, but TE Dustin Keller may be the safest play as he’s usually involved in the game plan and has produced well in recent weeks.

As I stated above, the Bills have been a tremendous ball hawking unit collecting 21 interceptions on the season including 4 last week against Miami. They intercepted Sanchez 5 times in the last contest, so Rex Ryan is well aware of what this defense can do. Maybe the Jets will be in “code red” for the entire contest and not even attempt to pass.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones went over 200 yards last time he faced the Bills and the Jets went for over 300 yards as a team. This would seem to be a good week to get Jones in your line-up if you are inclined to take him out on occasion. If you are really hurting at the RB position Shonn Green should get some consideration as well. The Jets will run as much as possible in Buffalo (make that Toronto) this week. They are the No. 2 rushing offense in the league and facing the No. 32 ranked run defense in the league. Do the math.

The Bills are ranked dead last (for those not aware that there are only 32 team in the league) in yards allowed per game (165.1) and additionally, they have allowed 16 rushing TDs on the season. ‘Nuff said.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 145 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 15 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 30 yds receiving
Jerricho Cotchery: 50 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 120 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 60 yds rushing

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Shawn Nelson (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -28.8%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.5%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -30.7%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -27.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Terrell Owens spoke out this week. Shocking (also not really). He sung the praises of new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick while of course taking a few shots at the Bills' former starter, Trent Edwards (He is TO after all). "If you think about the opportunities we've had during the course of the season, I've been open and I've been overthrown and I've been underthrown. Now with [Ryan Fitzpatrick] back there, there are opportunities and I feel like I'm a part of the offense. Whereas, I know earlier, those feelings and those opportunities, I didn't feel that they were there." So he’s happy now, which is nice.

Here comes the bad news Darrelle Revis should be covering him a majority of the time, so his recent run of success just may come to an end. Last week Steve Smith was the latest player to get Revis-ed. On the bright side for Bills fans Lee Evans will get Sheppard-ed (as in Lito) this week. That is like the opposite of getting Revis-ed.

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch was limited with a shoulder injury in Week 12 and it was just like old time for the Bills. Fred Jackson (who was the early season bright spot in the Bills offense) went for 116 total yards and 2 TDs. Lynch’s status is unknown for Thursday Night, but Jackson owners should pay careful attention.

While the Jets run defense has been in decline since NT Kris Jenkins was lost for the season the team has had some games where they’ve still managed to be effective versus the run. Last week is a good example where the Jets were able to corral the vaunted Pather running attack – although Jake Delhomme tossing 4 interceptions kept his team off the file a lot. On the season the Jets are allowing 108.2 ypg with 8 TDs on the ground.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 200 yds passing, 1 TDs, 2 Ints. / 5 yds rushing
Lee Evans: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Terrell Owens: 35 yds receiving
Shawn Nelsom: 35 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 85 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 25 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Prediction: Jets 17 Bills 10 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Giants (Marcoccio)

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Felix Jones
Roy Williams/Miles Austin/Jason Witten (vs. NYG)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -3.4%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.5%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -11.8%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +33.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tony Romo got back on track against Oakland on Thanksgiving Day. Oakland does have a tough pass defense despite being a poor overall team, so Romo’s performance was impressive. When the passing offense is clicking this is a unit that can move the ball quickly. Romo has one of the quickest releases in the NFL and his mobility allows him to buy some time and make plays down field where Miles Austin and Jason Witten’s uncommon size and speed combinations make them extremely difficult matchups. Roy Williams of course has first round talent, but just does not seem able to put it all together and has quickly fell down the ranks of the Cowboys pass game pecking order.

The injury depleted Giants secondary got a major piece back with the return of Aaron Ross but the results just weren’t there against Atlanta and Denver the last two weeks. Whether it’s because of the departure of Steve Spagnola or just because they’ve been banged up a little, the D-line just isn’t putting as much pressure on opposing QBs as they used to, allowing teams to take advantage of the banged up secondary. Statistically the Giants still rank 4th in pass defense from a yardage allowed perspective (185.0 ypg), so they appear to be a sound pass defense but the 18 passing TDs they have allowed speaks otherwise.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dallas running game was also able to get back on track on Thanksgiving Day, but Oakland’s run defense is as poor as their overall team. Felix Jones had his most explosive game since returning from his knee injury and could be ready for a very nice stretch run. He scored on a long TD run and finally appears healthy. Marion Barber also had a big day and should be healed up from his earlier quadriceps pull. This could be one scary offense in December.

New York is ranked 11th in the league in run defense, allowing 107.8 ypg. However, just as their pass defense looks deceivingly good when only looking at the yards allowed, the team has allowed 15 rushing TDs, so it hasn’t been all that effective either. Marion Barber had his best game of the season against the Giants in Week 2 and now that Antonio Pierce has been lost for the season there isn’t much hope that they will shut him down this time either.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 275 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 20 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 40 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Felix Jones: 40 yds rushing, 1 TD / 35 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Eli Manning/ Brandon Jacobs
Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Hakeem Nicks/Kevin Boss (vs. DAL)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.4%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.5%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -11.8%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +33.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning’s performance generally “fades” when the December winds blow into New Jersey, and this year he may have a built in excuse. His foot that has been hampered by plantar fasciitis is now further burdened by a potential stress fracture. This offseason all the talk was the inexperience at the wide out position, but Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks bring hope for an explosive duo at the wide receiver position going forward, and Steve Smith continues to be rock solid. This unit did very well in Dallas against the Cowboys and will need to do so once again if the Giant season is to be saved.

Dallas is allowing 224.9 ypg and has given up 15 passing TDs in 11 games so it’s been a vulnerable unit. Like the Giants, the Cowboys have been hit by injuries in the secondary and the team has not generated as consistent a pass rush as it did last season. This pass defense may be the Achilles heel to the Cowboys Super Bowl hopes if they end up facing Brett Favre or Drew Brees in January.

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants could be hurting at RB this week. Ahmad Bradshaw missed last week’s game in Denver with an ankle injury and his availability for this week’s game is not a certainty. Danny Ware who was being worked in as a 3rd down back and took Bradshaw’s reps last week was knocked out of that game with a concussion and will miss this week’s game. Brandon Jacobs has not been as effective this season as the last couple of seasons and no one really seems to know the reason why. Jacobs seems to genuinely dislike the Cowboys so he should be fired up for this game and see almost every carry, but will he run with the power he’s shown in the past?

Dallas has been playing the run very well this season, allowing 102.7 ypg, and only 4 rushing TDs so it will not get any easier for Jacobs this week to turn his season back around.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 Int.
Steve Smith: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 70 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 90 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Prediction: Cowboys 27 Giants 24 ^ Top

Saints @ Redskins (Marcoccio)

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson/Jeremy Shockey
Pierre Thomas/Mike Bell/Reggie Bush (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -23.8%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -16.4%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -14.0%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -32.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been a legit MVP candidate this season – and only furthered his candidacy by tearing apart the Patriots this past Monday Night. Brees has proven to be match-up proof, as he is smart, accurate, has a well equipped arm and has a plethora of weapons that always step up as needed. It is hard for opposing defense to game plan to stop this offense as there isn’t really a “go to” option for Brees and in any given week, Colston, Shockey, Moore (when healthy), Bush (when healthy), Henderson, Meachem or even some more minor option could be the weapon of choice for Brees.

Washington’s pass defense is currently ranked 1st in the NFL – as the unit has allowed only 170.4 ypg and 11 TDs on the season. After a slow start, the Redskins are starting to generate some pressure on opposing passers, but Brees’ quick release can beat most pass rushes. The Skins have a talented and physical secondary in LaRon Landry, Carlos Rodgers, DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot and are one of the better equipped defenses to keep the Saints passing game in check. However, is there anyone out there considering benching Brees?

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints are a well rounded offense that is capable of beating most of their opponents with their ground attack, but seldom feel the need to take that approach. Pierre Thomas is a complete back that has no real weaknesses in his game, but one would have to question if his “elite” production stems more from elite talent or the fact that he is protected by the Saints passing game. Mike Bell is used more as a battering ram that can wear down opposing defenses with his hard running style – but that style has lead to some injuries this season and he is once again banged up a little and questionable for Week 13. Reggie Bush hasn’t been healthy but even when he has been, he has seen his role in this offense decrease more and more.

Earlier this season Washington was holding most opposing runners in check. However in recent weeks, Michael Turner, Knowshon Moreno, Marion Barber and the Eagles combo of LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver have produced against the Skins. On the season the team is allowing 127.9 ypg and 6 rushing TDs to their opponents, so Thomas should see some nice production if he is needed to be pressed into a significant role.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 245 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Marques Colston: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Robert Meachem: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Devery Henderson: 50 yds receiving
Jeremy Shockey: 35 yds receiving
Reggie Bush: 10 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Mike Bell: 30 yds rushing
Pierre Thomas: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/Rock Cartwright
Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Antwaan Randle El/Fred Davis (vs. NO)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -16.3%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +7.5%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -37.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: There is no one in the Skins’ passing offense that should get the start for your fantasy team on a regular basis. However, this week may be an exception. Jason Campbell is dead man walking in Washington, but he hasn’t been a terrible fantasy QB, just a subpar NFL QB. The Redskins should be playing catch up like most teams that face the Saints so some garbage time stats could come from Campbell, Santana Moss and Fred Davis this week. They aren’t ideal options but not bad ones for owners in a bind this week.

The Saints, with Will Smith and Charles Grant, can get after the QB and have lived off of the turnovers created in the secondary as teams try and keep up with the Saints high flying offense. Most of those turnovers have come from veteran Darren Sharper, who was a great addition to this team and was the shot in the arm the team needed to get better on the other side of the ball.

Running Game Thoughts: Rock Cartwright is a hard runner but isn’t all that talented. He’s only playing because he has to, but any RB that can compile stats as the main ball carrier is at least an option for your fantasy team at this time of year with so many injuries across the board.

Getting out to early leads has helped mask some of last season’s deficiencies in the Saints’ run defense, but it’s not all smoke and mirrors. The Saints have a talented line backer unit with Jonathan Vilma and Scott Fujita supporting a big defensive line and the safety play has been strong as well. However the unit does allow 116.3 ypg and have given up 14 TDs on the ground so while they have some talent on defense, they aren’t a team that should scare you off from starting a RB playing against them.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 210 yds passing, 1 TD 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Devin Thomas: 35 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 20 yds receiving
Fred Davis: 45 yds receiving
Rock Cartwright: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Saints 27 Redskins 14 ^ Top

Broncos @ Chiefs (Eakin)

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Tony Scheffler
Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +16.4%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +19.0%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +17.0%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +19.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brandon Marshall remains the focal point of the Bronco’s passing game and the only truly reliable option. He and Orton are serviceable fantasy starters against the weak Chiefs secondary. There have not been many games affected by weather this season but it’s worth noting there is a chance of snow in Denver for this game. Snow itself isn’t a huge deterrent for passing statistics unless it’s blizzard like conditions or combined with heavy wind. If either of those conditions are prevalent Sunday morning, bump the skill players down accordingly. Eddie Royal is expected back after missing last week with a thigh injury. Royal is capable of a big game but too inconsistent to rely on if you have better options. TE Tony Scheffler has also been inconsistent, but I like his chances as a sleeper TE play this week in poor weather conditions facing a defense that doesn’t cover TEs well.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver wins games when they feature the run heavily and loses when they get away from it. You can bet that HC Josh McDaniels is very aware of the trend. Expect both Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter to get plenty of opportunities to post RB2 worthy numbers. If the weather is bad, they should fare even better in a favorable match-up with the Chiefs questionable run defense.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 235 yds/1 TDs
Brandon Marshall: 85 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 50 yds
Tony Scheffler: 65 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 75 yds/20 rec /1 TD
Correll Buckhalter: 50 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Matt Cassel/Chris Chambers/Lance Long/Sean Ryan
Jamaal Charles (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -26.6%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -9.4%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -13.8%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -33.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Like Denver, the Chiefs favor a short passing game and don’t stretch the field much. Denver’s defense is small, quick, and plays the pass very well. Fair weather or not, I don’t like the match-up for the Chiefs passing game. Cassel could struggle and the only fantasy worthy starter may be WR Chris Chambers. Chambers has been solid since joining the team and is the unquestioned top target with Dwayne Bowe suspended, but he will likely draw CB Champ Bailey, so even Chambers is at best a WR3 this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles has a much better match-up. Denver can be run on and Charles has delivered since taking over as the starter. Back-up Kolby Smith is still dealing with ankle problems so there is little to no threat of anyone vulturing touches away from Charles. I expect Charles to also play a big part in the Chiefs passing game on short screens and swing patterns so he is a better play in leagues that award receptions. Treat him as a RB2 in standard scoring leagues and a RB1 in PPR scoring leagues this week.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 190 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Chris Chambers: 70 yds/1 TD
Lance Long: 50 yds
Sean Ryan: 30 yds
Jamaal Charles: 90 yds/45 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Denver 27 Chiefs 17 ^ Top

49ers @ Seahawks (Eakin)

Alex Smith/Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +10.1%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +0.7%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +30.9%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -12.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: The once run heavy Niner’s have changed offensive identity midseason to a spread pass attack. QB Alex Smith is more comfortable from a shotgun position similar to his college days at Utah under Urban Meyer. Vernon Davis continues t roll as the top fantasy TE this year. Davis should roll on against Seattle’s 25th ranked pass defense that has poor pass coverage safeties. Keep an eye on TE Delaney Walker if your team is desperate for TE help. Walker continues to take on a larger role as the season progresses and should be in line for 40-50 yards again this week. Michael Crabtree has perhaps a tougher match-up in Marcus Trufant. Trufant is steadily returning to form after being injured and did well limiting Mike Sims-Walker last week. Crabtree is a marginal to high-end WR3 play depending on your WR options. This could be a week where Josh Morgan, who starts opposite Crabtree, puts up better numbers.

Running Game Thoughts: I doubt Frank Gore is a big fan of the Niner’s spread formation although he has remained mum when asked. Once the centerpiece of the offense, Gore has taken a little bit of a backseat, including a meager 23 carries for 92 yards over the last two games. We have to expect Gore to pick it up soon but the recent trend has to be alarming, and Seattle has been tougher against the run with the terrific play of tackle machine MLB David Hawthorne.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 255 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 65 yds
Vernon Davis: 85 yds/1 TD
Josh Morgan: 70 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 70 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Matt Hasselbeck/Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/John Carlson
Julius Jones/Justin Forsett (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +1.6%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -0.5%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +4.7%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -13.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: 102 yards with no TDs in a half empty St. Louis stadium is not a very ringing endorsement for Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawk passing game. I warned people not to expect too much despite the seemingly easy match-up against the Rams, but I didn’t expect it to be THAT bad. Wow. Well, the Niner’s aren’t very good is pass defense and Seattle is playing at home, so they should bounce back. But, again, temper expectation for the inconsistent Seattle pass attack since the Niner’s were able to get good pressure on Eli Manning last week by aggressively blitzing LBs. Hasselbeck could be under fire all day with a struggling offensive line not doing a good job of protecting him. Nate Burleson is the best WR option available. He led the team with 4 catches for 46 yards last week while Houshmandzadeh and Carlson struggled with 2 for 14 yards apiece. With a heavy blitz package, Carlson will be forced to stay in and block for much of the game.

Running Game Thoughts: I’ve been on a rant since midseason that Forsett should be the starting Seattle RB. The rest of the country has joined in since Forsett has been stellar replacing Julius Jones but remarkably, Jim Mora Jr. plans on starting Julius Jones, who is expected to return this week. He must be enticed by Jones’ 8 carries for 11 yards when the two teams played back in September. By the way, Forsett ran for 35 yards on 5 carries in that same game. With Jones starting, expect them to split carries but Forsett to see the bulk of receiving work out of the backfield. The Niner’s, led by MLB Patrick Willis, are a tough run defense so Seattle could struggle to run effectively, and Forsett will remain post better total yards.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 200 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Nate Burleson: 70 yds/1 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 40 yds
John Carlson: 30 yds
Julius Jones: 45 yds/20 rec
Justin Forsett: 45 yds/40 yds rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 24 Seattle 20 ^ Top

Vikings @ Cardinals (Eakin)

Brett Favre/Sidney Rice/Bernard Berrian/Percy Harvin/Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +7.8%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -1.7%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +14.8%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +22.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett “Father Time” Favre has been remarkable leading the Minnesota passing attack ranked 6th in QB fantasy points scored. Sidney Rice might be the 2009 waiver-wire player of the year leading the way as Favre’s top target. Rice is a weekly must start option despite a tough match-up with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie this week. Rice’s size gives him the ability to make plays even when blanketed by good coverage. Alongside waiver-wire player of the year is offensive rookie of the year candidate Percy Harvin. Harvin is a danger from anywhere on the field on offense and special teams. “No Mercy” Percy is 4th in the NFL with 1617 total yards and has scored five times. At TE, Visanthe Shiancoe is worth starting because of his heavy red zone targeting, with a team leading eight TD receptions.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson is 3rd in RB fantasy points scored behind only Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Vikings appear to want to keep Peterson fresh for the stretch run since Chester Taylor has seen more playing time the last couple of weeks. They don’t have too much luxury to rest players unless the game is in hand because despite just one loss on the year, the still trail the undefeated Saints for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 320 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
Sidney Rice: 90 yds/1 TD
Bernard Berrian: 60 yds
Percy Harvin: 50 yds/1 TD
Visanthe Shiancoe: 40 yds/1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 90 yds/20 rec/1 TD
Chester Taylor: 35 yds/30 rec

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells (vs. MIN)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +1.6%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -33.7%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -10.0%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +40.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kurt Warner is splitting reps in practice with Matt Leinart and says he’s feeling better after missing last week suffering the effects from a concussion. The Cardinals fare little chance of winning without Warner but I think he probably plays. Minnesota is 18th in QB FPTs allowed, and all the regular Cardinal fantasy plays Warner, Breaston, Fitzgerald, and Boldin are good plays since the best way to attack the Viking is through the air. If Leinart starts, you still have to start Boldin and Fitzgerald, but although Leinart moved the offense between the twenties last week, the Cards sputtered in the red zone under his direction.

Running Game Thoughts: Don’t expect much from the Arizona RBs facing one of the league’s most feared run defenses. With Wells and Hightower splitting reps, it’s hard to imagine either faring well against a Viking defense allowing just 12.9 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Hightower could have marginal flex appeal in point-per-reception leagues since he figures to play a sizeable role in the passing game as a dump option for whichever Arizona QB is under-fire from the Vikings effective pass rush.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 285 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 95 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 85 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 40 yd
Tim Hightower: 30 yds/40 rec/1 TD
Beanie Wells: 40 yds

Prediction: Minnesota 31 Arizona 24 ^ Top

Raiders @ Steelers (Mack)

Bruce Gradkowski / Darren McFadden / Justin Fargas / Michael Bush
Chaz Shilens / Louis Murphy / Darrius Heyward-Bey / Zach Miller (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -11.5%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -32.3%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.5%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -19.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: It is interesting to note that since Bruce Gradkowski took over the starting QB spot from JaMarcus Russell, his 3 passing TDs are one more than Russell and his 3 INTs are six fewer than Russell—despite Gradkowski playing four fewer games. If that doesn’t put the Raiders’ QB woes in perspective, not much will. Gradkowski is an upgrade, sure. But he has limitations that affect those players around him, albeit they have shortcomings in their games as well.

The receiving threesome for the Raiders of Chaz Shilens, Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey isn’t going to put much fear in opposing defenses, especially one as accomplished as Pittsburgh’s. They have 3 TDs between them. If any receiving option on this team is worth a spot on your roster it has to be TE Zach Miller. He has more than twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team and is the only viable, consistent weapon. Even with a tough match-up this week, he must be given serious consideration for a starting spot. Everyone else should be avoided, obviously.

Running Game Thoughts: The three-headed monster at RB makes for a hot mess from a fantasy perspective. Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush have all had a role in the running game during the last couple of games. It’s difficult to gauge how well any of them will do, especially when you couple the crowded backfield with the fact that they’re simply not a good running team. Oakland will find it tough to create running lanes for whoever totes the rock this week, as Pittsburgh’s #1-ranked run defense will prove a formidable foe. Keep your Oakland RBs on your bench; I trust that you can find better options elsewhere on your roster.

Projections:
Bruce Gradkowski – 180 yards / 2 INTs
Justin Fargas – 40 yards
Darren McFadden – 30 yards
Michael Bush – 15 yards
Chaz Shilens – 55 yards
Louis Murphy – 25 yards
Darrius Heyward-Bey – 20 yards
Zach Miller – 60 yards

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Mike Wallace / Heath Miller (vs. Oakland)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -3.7%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +35.8%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.5%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -35.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Imagine my reaction when my opponent last week started both Dennis Dixon and Santonio Holmes. There’s no way neither could muster any fantasy-relevant points, right? Well, three combined TDs later, I got nervous. I pulled the game out based on what happened on Monday night, but the fact that Dixon and Holmes held their own against a tough defense on the road showed me everything I need to see about a team with immeasurable pride. Ben Roethlisberger returns this week and looks to get his team back on track after a three-game slide.

If there’s an area where Oakland is strongest, it’s their pass defense. Even though they’re ranked in the middle of the pack (17th), they’ve only allowed 10 TD passes through 11 games. Hines Ward had an average game last week, but look for him to rebound against the Raiders. Holmes finally showed a pulse last week after having not scored since week 1 (and of course that would happen when I play against him), and Mike Wallace should get deep against the Raiders’ nickel back. Pittsburgh should win this game easily, with the passing game playing a vital role.

Running Game Thoughts: This game will be won by the Steelers living up to their reputation as a power running team. With Roethlisberger perhaps still susceptible, look for Pittsburgh to count on the running game early and often, meaning Rashard Mendenhall should see plenty of carries. He hasn’t scored in five straight games, but he should no doubt break that nasty streak this week. Oakland has the 31st ranked run defense in the league and has given up an NFL-worst 17 rushing TDs. Something’s going to give this week; good thing for Mendenhall owners it will be his unsightly five-game scoreless streak. Start him with confidence and expect a huge game.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 210 yards / 2 TDs
Rashard Mendenhall – 135 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 85 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 55 yards
Mike Wallace – 35 yards / 1 TD
Heath Miller – 30 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Oakland 9 ^ Top

Lions @ Bengals (Mack)

Matt Stafford / Kevin Smith
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt / Will Heller (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.0%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -24.8%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -17.9%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -2.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie Matt Stafford showed great spunk in returning to action so quickly after a battered and bruised shoulder left his availability in doubt last week. But playing Green Bay on Thanksgiving proved much tougher than playing the pathetic Cleveland defense. Stafford returned to his old turnover-prone self when a real defense came to town. Now he gets to go against the league’s 6th-ranked defense in Cincinnati. You should expect another poor outing from the rookie who is certainly getting his lumps in 2009.

Whatever the reason—injuries, ineffective supporting cast—Calvin Johnson has not lived up to expectations this season. Entering this year as a consensus top-5 fantasy WR, Johnson barely seems to crack the weekly top 20. But Detroit’s passing game goes as he goes, so he’s a must start in almost every scenario. His numbers will be modest this week, but like last week proved, he can still get a cheap score to overinflate his already mirage-like value.

Running Game Thoughts: I battle almost every week trying to decide whether to start Kevin Smith. But every week I think of a reason not to. I find it too risky to start a Detroit Lion during this critical juncture of the fantasy season, and Smith’s production has been anything but consistent. He’s second only to Calvin Johnson on the team in receptions, but it is his lack of production on the ground that has me pulling my hair out on a weekly basis. Smith hasn’t scored a rushing TD in seven straight games—not the kind of production you need from your RB2. And those struggles are sure to continue this week, as Cincy has the league’s 3rd-ranked run defense. As always, Smith is a low-end option in PPRs, but traditional leagues he remains as risky a start as he’s been most of the season. Use caution when putting him in your line-up.

Projections:
Matt Stafford – 205 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Kevin Smith – 60 yards rushing / 40 yards rec.
Calvin Johnson – 80 yards / 1 TD
Bryant Johnson – 45 yards
Dennis Northcutt – 20 yards
Will Heller – 35 yards

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Laveranues Coles / Andre Caldwell / John Paul Foschi (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +33.0%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +13.5%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +33.5%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +43.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Many are looking at this match-up and proclaiming Carson Palmer a no-brainer of a start. The Bengals are clearly the superior team, but have you taken a look at Palmer’s stats recently? He’s thrown for multiple TDs in a game only once in the last seven, and one of those he was kept out of the end zone entirely. That’s way too hit-or-miss for me. With that being said, it’s tough to ignore the Lions’ last place pass defense ranking. No other team has given up more TD passes than the Detroit’s 27, and the Lions have surrendered 300-plus passing yards in four straight games. Keep those dreadful numbers in mind when you decide if Palmer should start.

As Palmer struggles to put up fantasy points, so too has Chad Ochocinco. He’s been held scoreless in the last four games and hasn’t put up more than 67 receiver yards in that stretch. Ochocinco should snap out of his funk this week, though. That can’t be said for the other receiving options in Cincy. Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell are, at best, average fantasy receivers and are better served on someone else’s team. But keep your expectations high for Palmer and Ochocinco and hope this gravy match-up spells success for you.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson returns after missing the last two games with a hip injury. He should return fresh and motivated, especially after both Bernard Scott and Larry Johnson put up solid numbers in successive weeks. Benson was on pace to lead the league in carries at the time of his injury. He’s the table-setter for Cincy and they have built their offensive philosophy not only on what he does, but on the entire running game. That bodes well for those counting on a productive game from Benson, as he’s almost assured 20-25 carries in this game. Detroit is getting beat by an average of 19 points on the road this year, so expect Benson to put the game on ice by the fourth quarter with physical runs between the tackles.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 225 yards / 2 TDs
Cedric Benson – 120 yards / 1 TD
Chad Ochocinco – 110 yards / 2 TDs
Laveranues Coles – 55 yards
Andre Caldwell – 20 yards
John Paul Foschi – 20 yards

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Detroit 13 ^ Top

Rams @ Bears (Mack)

Kyle Boller / Steven Jackson / Kenneth Darby
Donnie Avery / Danny Amendola / Randy McMichael (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.2%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.3%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +13.9%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +4.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: All things considered, Kyle Boller played okay last week. Known as a mistake-filled QB much of his career, Boller displayed nice poise and command of the offense last week despite tossing 2 INTs against Seattle. Chicago is struggling defensively this year and starters Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman could both miss this contest, but this road test may prove much tougher for St. Louis than the Seattle game last week in the comfort of the Edward Jones Dome. Donnie Avery is an unspectacular fantasy player, but he’s capable of putting up respectable points every week because he’s the Rams’ #1 receiving weapon. The other options are simply guys for depth and should start for you only in the event of injury or the fact that you play in a 24-team league.

Running Game Thoughts: I thought Steven Jackson would be one of the bigger busts in fantasy this year due to the dearth of talent around him, but he has proven me wrong. The Rams would be one step above an expansion team without the services of the dreadlocked Jackson. And what’s more, the Rams understand that. He’s their workhorse, giving him at least 21 carries in 7 of the last 8 games. He’s also ran for at least 116 yards in 4 of the last 5. And after going scoreless through the first seven games, Jackson has now scored in four straight. What does all this mean? Despite the back ailment that’s been limiting Jackson during practice the last couple weeks, he’s a must-start option regardless of the opponent. He hasn’t practiced yet this week as of this writing, but he says there’s no doubt he play. Get him in your line-up.

Projections:
Kyle Boller – 185 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Steven Jackson – 115 yards / 1 TD / 40 yards rec.
Donnie Avery – 60 yards / 1 TD
Danny Amendola – 30 yards
Randy McMichael – 25 yards

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Devin Hester / Johnny Knox / Greg Olsen (vs. St. Louis)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.5%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +30.3%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.7%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +8.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Two TDs and 8 INTs in the last three games is a horrible stat line for any QB, especially one coming into a season with the ‘savior’ label tattooed to his forehead. Such is the case with Jay Cutler. In fact, his terrible play extends beyond the last three games; he has at least one INT in seven straight games. There’s a good chance that if you drafted him as your starter, you have another option by now. If not, shame on you. Cutler has demonstrated all year that he’s an ache looking for a head to hurt. Steer clear of this turnover machine; he’s simply too erratic to start at this important time of year.

His receiving options aren’t much better, although Greg Olsen has picked it up recently. Devin Hester could always surprise with a solid outing, but Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett are works in progress who should be nowhere near your starting line-up. This Chicago passing game is struggling big-time and you don’t want to hitch your wagon to this crippled horse.

Running Game Thoughts: Okay, it’s just not funny anymore. Matt Forte’s struggles this year are such a departure from what he was last season, it’s as if someone has played a joke on both NFL and fantasy followers alike. As if his year wasn’t already a waste, the preseason top-5 RB has averaged a whopping 34 yards on the ground during his last four games. So as bad as it’s been, it’s getting worse. He’s useless this year and there’s no reason for his owners to believe it will turn around now. This is not the time to put players in your line-up and hope that they somehow produce in spite of their recent history. St. Louis has the 28th ranked run defense and Forte’s best games have come against the bottom-feeders in the league relative to run defense, but again, it’s not worth it to put him in your line-up. Don’t be tempted. Look elsewhere.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 230 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Matt Forte – 55 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Devin Hester – 75 yards / 1 TD
Johnny Knox – 30 yards
Earl Bennett – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 70 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Chicago 20, St. Louis 17 ^ Top

Chargers @ Browns (Mack)

Philip Rivers / LaDainian Tomlinson
Vincent Jackson / Malcom Floyd / Antonio Gates (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.0%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +36.7%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Take a look at this: Philip Rivers has thrown only 3 INTs in his last 9 games. That’s an incredible stat and one that further cements his solid standing as a #1 QB in fantasy football. The Cleveland Browns shouldn’t put up much of a battle. They have the 31st ranked defense in the league and have the second-fewest interceptions with six. Rivers and his weapons should put this game out of reach rather quickly.

The one thing that infuriates me about the Chargers is Vincent Jackson has been thrown to only 14 times in the last three weeks. Rivers often goes whole quarters without even looking Jackson’s way. My biased views aside, the Chargers’ passing game remains one of the game’s best, and Antonio Gates has resurfaced as a top-3 TE once again. Expect him to live up to that label this week. Jackson is too valuable and this match-up is too enticing to bench him. Just hope Rivers throws the dang ball to him this week.

Running Game Thoughts: After scoring only 1 TD in the first four games, LaDainian Tomlinson has picked it up big-time, scoring 5 TDs in his last three games. He still hasn’t rushed for more than 100 yards in a game since week 8 last season, but LT is warming up at the precise time for his fantasy owners. LT’s chances of producing have increased this week with the news that Jon Runyan and Nick Hardwick may return to action to help fortify the O-line. That, coupled with Cleveland’s Shaun Rogers going on IR, should have LT owners looking forward to this match-up. LT should continue his productive streak, so get him in your line-up.

Projections:
Philip Rivers – 270 yards / 3 TDs
LaDainian Tomlinson – 90 yards / 1 TD
Vincent Jackson – 120 yards / 1 TD
Malcom Floyd – 45 yards
Antonio Gates – 80 yards / 2 TDs

Brady Quinn / Jerome Harrison
Josh Cribbs / Chansi Stuckey / Mohamed Massaquoi (vs. San Diego)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -13.3%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.8%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -15.2%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -0.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Predictably, Brady Quinn fell back to earth last week after his monster game at Detroit the prior week. He finished with no TDs after tossing four in week 11. That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Quinn resorted back to the struggling QB he’s proven to be during his short and unspectacular NFL career. He has little experience, an overrated offensive line and receivers that are unproven. It’s a recipe for disaster in every possible way. And oh, by the way, San Diego has the 8th best pass defense, so expect numbers similar to the goose egg he put up last week against Cincinnati. Suffice it to say, all Browns receivers should be benched.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamal Lewis was placed on IR this week after suffering setbacks from a concussion earlier in the season. Lewis remained valiant in his efforts, but it was clear from watching him that his best days were a distant memory. Now Jerome Harrison is in line to be the featured back, and if he plays the way he did when he got extended playing time earlier this year, he could be a step up from Lewis. Harrison’s elusiveness and ability as a receiver at least make him a better fantasy option than Lewis. That’s not saying a ton, but hey, it’s a start.

Projections:
Brady Quinn – 175 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Jerome Harrison – 45 yards rushing / 20 yards rec
Josh Cribbs – 60 yards
Chansi Stuckey – 40 yards
Mohamed Massaquoi – 30 yards

Prediction: San Diego 31, Cleveland 10 ^ Top

Ravens @ Packers (Mack)

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.5%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -31.1%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.0%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +19.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has completely fallen off the fantasy map over the last month or two. After throwing 11 TDs through the first six games, he has only two in his last five. Hopefully you traded him when his stock was at its highest because he’s now a borderline starter in most leagues. He should once again be held in check going up against one of the toughest pass defenses in the league. The Packers have a ball-hawking, opportunistic defense that is 3rd in the league in interceptions with 18. CB Charles Woodson is coming off a fantastic game on Thanksgiving against Detroit. He may be locked on Derrick Mason most of the game and if that’s the case, you may want to knock Mason down a notch or three. Mark Clayton and Todd Heap are who they are—neither of whom requires much thought in trying to decide whether to start them.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice continues to be the dual threat we as fantasy owners love. He leads the team in both rushing and receiving and is a really solid RB2 this week. He hasn’t scored in the last two weeks, but he does have 12 receptions in those two games. Rice will find the going awfully tough this week. Green Bay has the 4th best running defense and has given up the fewest rushing TDs in 2009 (3). So whatever high hopes you have for Rice in week 13, be sure to include an added level of pessimism along with it. And what’s more, head coach John Harbaugh indicated that if he didn’t like the way Rice was running during a game, he wouldn’t hesitate putting Willis McGahee in the game. So while Rice is the undisputed starter and every-down back, don’t be shocked if McGahee sees an uptick in his playing time on any given day.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 185 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Ray Rice- 60 yards rushing / 25 yards rec / 1 TD rec
Derrick Mason – 65 yards
Mark Clayton – 40 yards
Todd Heap – 35 yards

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / James Jones / Jermichael Finley (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.7%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -18.6%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.0%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -22.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: It is incredible how consistently productive Aaron Rodgers has been this season. He has 14 TDs in his last six games with only 3 INTs, and those 3 came in one game. He has a boatload of options to throw to, and even though he’s been sacked more often than any other QB, Rodgers continues to shine and provide his owners with numbers that win championships. The Ravens last week allowed a young QB making his first NFL start to score twice—and that was at Baltimore. If Dennis Dixon can do that against a defense that seems to have a bigger bark than bite, imagine what Rodgers will do to them at Lambeau?

Donald Driver and Greg Jennings both put up enough numbers to warrant WR2 status. James Jones seems to get the scraps, and Jermichael Finley appears to be hit or miss. Obviously, if anyone is worthy of being in your starting line-up every week, it’s Rodgers. Get him in there. But I also like Jennings in this game. He could get deep for a long one or two on Monday.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant hasn’t been much of a scoring machine this year, but he’s certainly being fed the football. He has at least 19 rushes in four straight games and is one of the reasons why Rodgers can remain so productive in the passing game in spite of the constant onslaught of pass rush pressure. Grant keeps defenses honest enough where they can’t totally ignore the threat of the run. Baltimore fields the 6th best rushing defense, so I wouldn’t look to Grant having much success this week. This game will be won or lost on the shoulders of Rodgers, so don’t look for much from Grant. Whatever production he gives you either through the air or on the ground, consider it a bonus. He could even possibly sneak it in for a cheap, short TD run.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 245 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Ryan Grant – 65 yards
Donald Driver – 95 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 70 yards / 1 TD
James Jones – 35 yards
Jermichael Finley – 40 yards

Prediction: Green Bay 20, Baltimore 13 ^ Top

Eagles @ Falcons (Kilroy)

Donovan McNabb / LeSean McCoy / Leonard Weaver
Jeremy Maclin / Jason Avant / Reggie Brown / Brent Celek (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.5%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +5.1%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.7%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +45.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Atlanta’s secondary hasn’t defended the pass all that well this year. Their yielding 252.6 passing yards per game (27th in the league) to opponents and have surrendered 18 touchdown passes while coming away with just 8 interceptions. They’ve also allowed a league high 45 pass plays of 20 or more yards to be completed against them.

Philadelphia’s leading receiver, DeSean Jackson, is likely to miss this Sunday’s game due to a concussion he suffered last week against the Redskins. Replacing him in the Eagles wide receiver rotation will be Reggie Brown, although Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and tight end Brent Celek should prove to be the biggest beneficiaries of Jackson’s absence.

Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons ability to stop the run hasn’t proven to be much better than their defense against the pass. They allow 121.3 yards per game on the ground (23rd in the league) with rushers punching into the end zone against them 9 times this season.

Philadelphia’s offense meanwhile is averaging 109.0 rushing yards per game at a rate of 4.6 yards per carry. Rookie LeSean McCoy continues to start in Brian Westbrook’s (concussion) absence and should have himself a solid all around day against Atlanta. Fullback Leonard Weaver has also seen an increase in production since the loss of Westbrook, but he’s only worth using if you’re incredibly desperate for points at the running back position.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb – 250 yards passing / 2 TDs
LeSean McCoy – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Leonard Weaver – 20 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jeremy Maclin – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jason Avant – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Reggie Brown – 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Brent Celek – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Chris Redman / Jason Snelling / Jerious Norwood / Michael Turner
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. Philadelphia)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.1%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.6%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -19.6%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +49.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Chris Redman makes his first start of the season as Matt Ryan remains sidelined with a turf toe injury suffered early in last week’s contest against the Buccaneers. In place of Ryan, Redman stepped in last Sunday and completed 23 of his 41 attempts for 243 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. It was an impressive performance off the bench, but he’ll be facing stiffer competition this week versus Philadelphia.

The Eagles defense ranks 9th in the league against the pass, allowing an average of 202.6 passing yards per game. Their 18 interceptions also happens to be the third highest total in the league, which makes it less likely Redman will get through this Sunday’s contest without any turnovers. He should be able to connect with Tony Gonzalez early and often however as the Eagles have had difficulties defending tight ends throughout the season.

Running Game Thoughts: After sitting out Week 11 with a high ankle sprain, Michael Turner returned to action last Sunday and ran 12 times for 33 yards before re-aggravating the injury. His status for this week’s contest remains up in the air, but he is yet to practice this week and it’s unlikely he’ll play on Sunday if he fails to take reps on Friday. Even if he does suit up, Turner remains a risky play considering the results he had last week in his attempt to make an early return from the injury.

At this point, expectations should be that Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood will split the workload in the Atlanta backfield against the Eagles. Neither player faired that well last week as they combined for 30 yards on 10 carries. Against a Philadelphia defensive unit that’s limiting opponents to 102.3 yards per game on the ground (8th in the league) it’s doubtful that either Snelling or Norwood will make meaningful contributions to fantasy rosters this week.

Projections:
Chris Redman – 215 yards passing / 1 TD
Jason Snelling – 55 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Jerious Norwood – 40 yards rushing / 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Michael Turner – Game Time Decision
Roddy White – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Michael Jenkins – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Atlanta 13 ^ Top

Titans @ Colts (Kilroy)

Vince Young / Chris Johnson / LenDale White
Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Justin Gage / Bo Scaife (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -11.9%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -0.9%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.8%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -50.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young’s win streak with the Titans since his insertion into the starting line-up has now reached five games. Last week he came away with his most impressive victory yet. With no time left on the clock, Young connected with rookie wide receiver, Kenny Britt, in the back of the end zone to cap off a 99-yard drive that gave the Titans a 20-17 win against the Arizona Cardinals. As if that outcome wasn’t thrilling enough, Young now faces an even tougher task as he and his teammates attempt to knock off the undefeated Colts on the road in Indianapolis.

For the season, the Colts rank 20th in the league against the pass, allowing an average of 223.3 yards per game through the air. They’ve only given up 9 touchdown passes throughout the season, but 7 of those have come in the team’s last 5 games.

While Tennessee’s offense does most of their damage on the ground, the opportunity will be there yet again for Young to surpass the 225 yards passing mark for just the second time this season. To keep up with the Colts the Titans will need to show some semblance of a passing game and the expected return of Justin Gage to the Titans group of wide receivers will give Young another viable option to work with.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson continues to tear through the competition as he has now gone 6-straight games in which he has rushed for 128 or more yards. He’s also scored 7 touchdowns within that span and will likely tally another against the Colts this Sunday with LenDale White relegated to nothing more than back-up duties as opposed to the time share he split with Johnson at the position last year.

With the Colts allowing 108.9 yards per game on the ground, and the Titans offense leading the league with an average of 167.9 rushing yards per game, one should expect another 100-yard outing from Johnson as well.

Projections:
Vince Young – 215 yards passing / 1 TD / 30 yards rushing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 115 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
LenDale White – 10 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Nate Washington – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kenny Britt – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Justin Gage – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +32.8%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.3%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +47.9%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +2.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: The last time these two teams met (Week 5), Manning had one of his best outings of the season as he completed 81.8% of his attempts while throwing for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Titans pass defense has improved since then, but they still rank 31st in the league with an average of 266.7 yards per game allowed through the air. The 25 touchdown passes they’ve allowed also happens to be the second highest total in the league.

With Manning leading the NFL’s top rated passing attack against one of the poorest performing secondaries in the league, it’s safe to expect another multi-touchdown performance from him as he totals roughly 300 yards through the air. Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark will all be threats to come away with a touchdown in this one as well.

Running Game Thoughts: For as poorly as they’ve defended the pass this year the Titans have been pretty stout against the run. The 101.5 yards per game they allow on the ground ranks 7th in the league, and with the Colts offense posting just 87.6 rushing yards per game Tennessee should have little trouble in keeping Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in check.

The Titans have allowed 9 rushing touchdowns this season however, and for as disappointing as Addai’s yardage production has been he’s been able to make up for it with his trips to the end zone, so don’t be surprised if he comes away with another score on the ground this Sunday.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 300 yards passing / 3 TDs
Joseph Addai – 55 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Donald Brown – 20 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Austin Collie – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Dallas Clark – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Tennessee 24 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Panthers (Kilroy)

Josh Freeman / Carnell “Cadillac” Williams / Derrick Ward
Antonio Bryant / Maurice Stovall / Sammie Stroughter / Kellen Winslow (vs. Carolina)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -14.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.4%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -29.0%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -15.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Carolina has given up more than their fair share of yards on the ground this year, but they’ve defended the pass rather well. Their average of 181.3 passing yards allowed per game ranks 3rd in the league and the 12 touchdown passes they’ve surrendered is a relatively low figure. When one combines this with a Buccaneers passing attack that ranks 25th in the NFL and averages just 176.6 yards per game it gives little reason to expect much success from Josh Freeman this Sunday.

Although Freeman is coming off the best outing of his young career, it’s likely he’ll struggle on the road this week against the Panthers secondary. Look for Tampa Bay to lean on the likes of Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward as they attempt to establish their rushing attack which will ultimately limit Freeman’s production.

Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay’s ground game hasn’t been any more productive than their attack through the air, but the duo of Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward should be able to manage some level of success this Sunday. The last time these two teams met (Week 6) Williams carried the ball 16 times for 77 yards and a score. He should be able to post similar numbers this time around, although expecting a touchdown from Williams could be a risky proposition as the Buccaneers have punched it into the end zone just 4 times this season. Carolina’s defense has surrendered 12 rushing touchdowns however, and yields 131.5 yards per game on the ground.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 180 yards passing / 0 TDs / 20 yards rushing
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD
Derrick Ward – 35 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Antonio Bryant – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Maurice Stovall – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Sammie Stroughter – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kellen Winslow – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Matt Moore / DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart
Steve Smith / Muhsin Muhammad / Dwayne Jarrett / Dante Rosario (vs. Tampa Bay)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +16.8%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +20.4%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +21.6%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Delhomme is dealing with a broken finger on his throwing hand which means Matt Moore is a virtual lock to make his first start of the season. Head Coach Jon Fox has yet to confirm this, but it’d be a surprise to everyone if Delhomme were under center for the Panthers this Sunday.

Given this, the fact Carolina has struggled to move the ball through the air this year, and the fact that their strong rushing attack matches up well against the Buccaneers 30th ranked run defense, don’t expect Moore to put the ball in the air all that often this Sunday. It’s doubtful he will have to pass anymore than 25 times this week barring a surprise outing from the Buccaneers in which they lead throughout the contest.

Tampa Bay has allowed 24 touchdown passes this season however, which is 3rd most in the NFL, so don’t be surprised if Moore came away with a touchdown pass in this one. His yardage total is likely to remain below the 200-yard mark though.

Running Game Thoughts: Questions surround whether or not DeAngelo Williams (ankle) will play this week after he missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. Although Head Coach, Jon Fox, has hinted towards Williams suiting up on Sunday he has also stated the final announcement will likely be a game time decision. Based on what’s been stated so far it sounds like he’ll play. If Williams doesn’t practice on Friday however, his status for Sunday becomes more doubtful.

Jonathan Stewart meanwhile rested his sore Achilles on Wednesday as he’s been doing throughout the season before returning to practice Thursday. Both backs are worthwhile options against a Buccaneers defensive unit that has surrendered 12 rushing touchdowns this season and allows an average of 160.4 yards per game on the ground. If Williams is ultimately declared inactive it makes Jonathan Stewart that much stronger of an option.

Projections:
Matt Moore – 175 yards passing / 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams – 50 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Jonathan Stewart – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD
Steve Smith – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dwayne Jarrett – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dante Rosario – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Carolina 21, Tampa Bay 10 ^ Top

Texans @ Jaguars (Kilroy)

Matt Schaub / Steve Slaton / Chris Brown
Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / Jacoby Jones / James Casey (vs. Jacksonville)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +10.4%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.7%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +30.1%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -23.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Even with the loss of Owen Daniels, Houston’s passing attack continues to rank among the best in the league. Their 283.1 yards per game through the air ranks 3rd in the NFL and their 21 touchdown passes ranks 5th. The Jacksonville defense meanwhile continues to struggle against the pass, ranking 26th in the league with an average of 242.9 passing yards allowed per game. The 19 touchdown passes they’ve surrendered is the 7th highest total in the NFL.

The last time these two teams met (Week 3) Matt Schaub threw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns while completing 74.3% of his attempts (26 of 35). While it may be asking a bit much to expect that type of production from him this time around on the road, he should have another successful outing. Expect him to have his third straight multi-touchdown outing as he throws for more than 250 yards.

Running Game Thoughts: Although Chris Brown has worked his way into a more prominent role within the Texans backfield, Steve Slaton continues to be their best all-around performer. As a team however, the Texans struggle to move the ball on the ground, ranking 29th in the NFL with an average of 90.5 rushing yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry.

The Jaguars defense has limited opponents to 106.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 10th in the league. They’ve also held teams to just 6 rushing touchdowns against them. Given these numbers it’s doubtful the Texans will suddenly accomplish all that much on the ground this week, although Steve Slaton should yet again provide a solid outing with his overall production.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 265 yards passing / 3 TDs
Steve Slaton – 50 yards rushing / 35 yards receiving / 1 TD
Chris Brown – 45 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 15 yards receiving
Andre Johnson – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Jacoby Jones – 35 yards receiving /1 TD
James Casey – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs

David Garrard / Maurice Jones-Drew
Mike Sims-Walker / Torry Holt / Mike Thomas / Marcedes Lewis (vs. Houston)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -3.7%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.6%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.2%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +3.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Houston’s defense hasn’t defended the pass or the run all that well this season, but given Jacksonville’s strength lies with their ground attack expect them to lean on Maurice Jones-Drew more heavily in this contest than they will on David Garrard’s arm. When these two teams first met back in Week 3, Garrard finished the afternoon completing 18 of his 30 attempts for 214 yards and no touchdowns. He also managed to scramble for 29 yards and a touchdown however.

This time around he is more likely to connect with one of his targets in the end zone as opposed to taking one in himself, but his overall production should remain the same. Instead of rushing for those 30 yards though he’ll likely add some of that to his passing total.

Running Game Thoughts: The Texans defense has had a difficult time stopping opposing rushers. They’ve allowed 120.0 rushing yards per game with teams averaging 4.8 yards per carry against them. The 14 rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed also happens to be the 5th highest total in the league.

The first time these two teams met, Maurice Jones-Drew scored 3 touchdowns as he carried the ball 23 times for 119 yards. Its unlikely Jones-Drew will find the end zone another 3 times in the rematch, but it’s very possible he’ll be in for another multi-touchdown outing as he pushes the century mark on the ground.

Projections:
David Garrard – 230 yards passing / 1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew – 100 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 25 yards receiving
Mike Sims-Walker – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Torry Holt – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Mike Thomas – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Marcedes Lewis – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Jacksonville 24, Houston 21 ^ Top

Patriots @ Dolphins (Marcoccio)

Tom Brady/ Laurence Maroney/ Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +13.7%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.5%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.3%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +21.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady seldom has back to back bad games, and after being pulled from the Monday Night game with over 5 minutes left to play, I’d imagine he’ll be fired up for this game against a division rival. With Miami starting two rookie CBS who have not performed real well since they have been pressed into action, this one may get out of hand quickly.

Running Game Thoughts: Laurence Maroney has run very well since being forced into the feartured role due to injuries. He is no longer dancing behind the line, but instead hitting the holes hard and getting positive yardage. Of course with Billy Belicheck in charge, all it takes is an early fumble to make Maroney irrelevant once again, but his owners have to rise him while he’s hot.

The Dolphins are the twelfth ranked run defense (108 ypg) and have allowed 13 rushing TDs this season. The unit started the year strongly, but a string of injuries and transgressions have depleted the line backing corp. making the Phins no longer a difficult matchup for opposing backs.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 305 yds passing 3 TDs
Randy Moss: 105 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Wes Welker: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ben Watson: 45 yds receiving
Laurence Maroney: 85 yards rushing, 1 TD
Kevin Faulk: 25 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving

Chad Henne/Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams
Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano (vs. NE)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.6%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -10.6%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -16.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Expect HC Tony Sparano to continue to play it safe with the young Chad Henne, in order to protect him and to keep the ball away from Patriots offense. Henne has played with poise and showed enough skill to give the Dolphins fans hope for the future, but he is still capable of occasional “rookie” mistakes. Rookie Brian Hartline has started to emerge as a favorite target of Henne and could be a sneaky start in a game where Miami may be forced to play cath-up.

Although many teams have been abused by Drew Brees, you still have to think the Monday Night matchup left this team either shaken up or fired up. If it’s the later, you have to feel sorry for young Chad Henne. The secondary has the talent to make life difficult for opposing QBs, but haven’t fared well in games where they have faced talented passing teams. The Dolphins however do not fit that mold.

Running Game Thoughts: The Pats will not have Ronnie Brown to worry about, which I’m sure makes them quite happy. It will fall on the aging shoulders of Ricky Williams to give the Dolphins a chance in this game – and he’s been more that up to the task so far. Williams has defied the odds stacked against 32 year old RBs and has run more like a 23 year old back.

The Patriots have played the run very well despite losing many impact players to offseason migrations and to in-season injuries. So far this season they are allowing only 109.7 yards per game and have only allowed a mere three rushing TDs.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 205 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 35 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 60 yds receiving, TD
Davone Bess: 45 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 20 yds receiving
Ricky Williams: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Prediction: Patriots 31 Dolphins 17 ^ Top