Packers @ Lions (Mack)

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / James Jones / Jermichael Finley (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +30.4%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.6%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +27.9%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +42.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: In three career games against Detroit, Aaron Rodgers has 8 TDs against only 1 INT. Look for that trend to continue on Turkey Day, as the lowly Lions secondary surrendered more than 300 passing yards and 4 TDs to Brady Quinn of all people last week. In the 26 games that Rodgers has started in the last two seasons, he’s thrown at least 1 TD in all but two of them. Plus he takes great care of the ball; he has only 3 INTs in the last 5 games. Detroit’s pass defense ranks at the very bottom of the league, and only two teams have fewer interceptions than the Lions’ 6. So as was the case in the three previous games in which Rodgers has faced Detroit, this game is ripe for the Lions to once again be in retreat mode all game.

The only thing better than starting Rodgers in this game is starting Green Bay’s receivers. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jermichael Finley are all viable options this week. Obviously, all of them won’t have the inevitable fantasy bonanza that this match-up calls for, but having a Packer receiver on your team and not starting him would be criminal. Plus, an already weak Detroit secondary just got worse with safety Ko Simpson getting injured in the Cleveland game. He may be out for the season. Start your Packer players and enjoy the beat down they will give the Lions.

Running Game Thoughts: After his 10 carry, 30 yard stink bomb of a game against Minnesota in week 7, Ryan Grant has actually played quite well for a RB2. He averaged a little over 100 yards on the ground in each game with 2 total TDs in the span. Grant is not heavily involved in the passing game, but with weapons such as Driver and Jennings, he doesn’t have to be. I think the Packers get up quickly in this game and will use Grant to help milk the clock. He should see between 22-25 carries in this game. Other than Steven Jackson going off against the Lions in week 9, Detroit has actually played well at home against the run this year. But Grant should still have a similar game to Jackson’s. Start Grant and anticipate a game of over 100 yards on the ground.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 320 yards / 3 TDs
Ryan Grant – 115 yards – 1 TD
Donald Driver – 110 yards / 2 TDs
Greg Jennings – 85 yards / 1 TD
James Jones – 50 yards
Jermichael Finley – 55 yards

Daunte Culpepper / Kevin Smith
Bryant Johnson / Dennis Northcutt / Calvin Johnson / Brandon Pettigrew (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.1%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.3%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.6%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +21.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Here’s one of those strange statistical facts: the Green Bay Packers have the league’s seventh best pass defense, but they’ve given up the fourth most passing TDs in the league. Go figure. But the tough pass defense of the Packers took a hit last week when CB Al Harris and DE/LB Aaron Kampman went down with season-ending knee injuries. Rookie QB Matt Stafford will sit this game with a shoulder injury, and veteran Daunte Culpepper will get the start. Culpepper didn’t exactly light it up in the games he played this year, throwing 1 TD and 2 INTs in three games.

Calvin Johnson is battling various injuries and may, at best, be limited if he plays. He’s currently a game-time decision, so be sure to stay abreast of his availability during the pregame show. Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt are useless options at receiver. Rookie Brandon Pettigrew has come on of late, catching 15 passes and 2 TDs in the last three games. If Calvin Johnson doesn’t play or is ineffective if he does, Pettigrew could be the biggest.

Running Game Thoughts: Kevin Smith had a predictably good game against a porous Cleveland defense last week. His production comes back to earth in a big way against Green Bay. Smith is as unspectacular a runner as any starting RB in the NFL, but part of his problem is the way he’s used in the offense. He hasn’t had more than 16 carries in the last five games, and he hasn’t scored a rushing TD since week 4. He came into this season a sleeper quality #2 fantasy back, but he’s disappointed many owners.

Don’t expect Smith’s numbers to be anywhere close to what he put up last week. Green Bay has the 4th ranked run defense, and only one team has allowed fewer than the 3 TDs the Packers have given up on the ground. Smith’s usefulness in fantasy football for 2009 may have come and gone with his week 11 performance against the Browns. Start him only if you are hurting at RB, but don’t expect much.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper – 165 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT
Kevin Smith – 45 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
Bryant Johnson – 50 yards
Calvin Johnson – 25 yards
Dennis Northcutt – 15 yards
Brandon Pettigrew – 35 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Detroit 13 ^ Top

Raiders @ Cowboys (Marcoccio)

Bruce Gradkowski/Justin Fargas/Michael Bush/Darren McFadden
Chaz Schilens/Louis Murphy/Zach Miller (vs. DAL)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.5%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.9%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +1.2%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The fact that a QB drafted in sixth round out of Toldeo managed to do what the No. 1 pick overall out of LSU couldn’t achieve all season – make the Oakland Raider passing game relevant – tells you all you need to know. Bruce Gradkowski’s performance was not earth shaking, but the point is he didn’t need to be. JaMarcus Russell’s inaccuracy has wasted the young talent that the Raiders have at the skill position. Zach Miller is a very talented TE who not has been able to shine under Russell’s massive shadow. In Week 11, he caught 5 balls for 65 yards and a score. In the same vein as Gradkowski v, Russell, 4th round pick WR Louis Murphy has made No. 7 overall pick WR Darrius Heyward-Bey look like a big bust. Murphy has shown big play ability earlier in the season before Russell went completely in the tank and found new life under Gradkowski catching a game tying 29 yard TD. Zach Miller should now have some value down the stretch for those thin at the TE position.

Dallas is allowing 229.3 ypg and has given up 14 passing TDs in 9 games so it is a very vulnerable unit. Perhaps Gradkowski may not be a terrible stop gap for teams that may have lost Big Ben, Kurt Warner, Kyle Orton or Matthew Stafford recently, especially if Dallas’ offense finally gets back on track and forces a shootout.

Running Game Thoughts: Despite finally having an at least adequate passing game threat, the Oakland running game still couldn’t manage to get back on track. While falling behind early limited the number of carries that went to Raider running backs, they weren’t effective with those carries anyway. Darren McFadden is on the verge of joining Russell and Heyward-Bey as early drafted skill position player busts, but he has at least shown some flashes of talent. Its too earl to write him off (and in fairness the same is true of Bey), but its getting close.

Dallas has been playing the run very well this season, allowing 100.6 ypg, and only 4 rushing TDs. Line backers Keith Brooking and Bradie James lead the team in tackles helped by undersized pro bowl NT Jay Ratliff’s ability to tie up blockers on the line. When you combine the three headed nature of the Oakland running attack with this difficult matchup, it’s an easy choice to keep all of the three backs out of your line-up.

Projections:
Bruce Gradkowski: 210 yds passing, 2 TDs, 2 Ints. / 5 yards rushing
Chaz Schillens: 40 yds receiving
Louis Murphy: 50 yds receiving
Zach Miller: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Darren McFadden: 15 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Michael Bush: 30 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Justin Fargas: 25 yds rushing

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Felix Jones
Roy Williams/Miles Austin/Jason Witten (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.5%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +33.8%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.0%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -43.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tony Romo’s struggles continued last week, but at least he managed to pull out a last minute win with a TD pass to Patrick Crayton. The passing game has been out of synch after a three-four week period where it looked unstoppable. It seems that Miles Austin’s fifteen minutes may be up once defenses started taking notice of him and now that he’s faced a few defenses that actually know how to tackle. Two other components of the passing attack have also been non-existent the last two weeks, one expected by many and one whose owners have likely now come to expect it after promising expectations to start the year. It’s quite obvious now that Roy Williams is destined to be a career underachiever, but it’s hard to figure out what happened to Jason Witten.

Oakland’s pass defense is ranked an unlucky 13th (207.5 ypg with 8 TDs allowed) but they are lucky to have Nnamdi Asomugha, perhaps the best cover corner in the NFL. Richard Seymour who was reluctant to become a Raider after he was traded from New England (can you blame him?) has teamed with Greg Ellis to form a rather decent pass rushing tandem. Unfortunately, those that have suffered through Tony Romo’s rough patch the last few weeks may not enjoy their Turkey as much this year while Romo faces another tough game.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dallas running game, however, was able to get back on track against a struggling Washington run defense and get to face another struggling unit this week. Marion Barber gained 99 yards on 20 carries but was kept out of the endzone. Felix Jones just hasn’t looked as explosive since injuring his knee earlier this season, but maybe the National spotlight gets him going after a solid 10 carry for 49 yards effort last week.

Labeling Oakland’s run defense as “struggling” is actually being kind – as they rank ahead of only Buffalo and Tampa Bay in yards given up on the ground. Teams are gaining 157.7 yards per game and have scored 16 rushing TDs against the Silver and Black. Barber should feast on this defense.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 205 yds passing 1 TD, 1 Int. / 15 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 40 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 65 yds receiving, 1TD
Jason Witten: 10 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 70 yds rushing, 1 TD / 55 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Prediction: Cowboys 30 Raiders 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Broncos (Eakin)

Eli Manning/Steve Smith/Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -25.5%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -4.7%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -15.0%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -29.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning led the Giants out of their mid-season slump by defeating the Falcons in overtime. Most of the damage was done through the air with Mario Manningham delivering multiple big plays to set up two Kevin Boss TD receptions. Boss has become a red zone favorite of Manning with four TDs in the last three games after not scoring through the first seven games. WR Steve Smith is remains a top option between the twenties but has cooled off a little since his hot start. He could be in line for another mediocre performance if he draws Denver CB Champ Bailey who is enjoying a Pro Bowl caliber season.

The Broncos pass defense has been the one area to maintained form during their four game losing streak. They limited one of the top QBs, Philip Rivers, to 145 yards and one TD. They are the top rated defense in QB FPTs allowed (13.8).

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants continue to struggle running the ball despite ending their four game slide versus Atlanta. Bradshaw and Jacobs combined for 74 yards against a middling Atlanta run defense. Jacobs left the game early last week with a knee problem but is reportedly feeling good and full go this week. Bradshaw is still in doubt after tweaking an ankle. The short week may not provide enough time to recover. The loss of Bradshaw makes Jacobs a top ten must start play with Danny Ware getting some relief duties.

The Broncos could be the medicine the Giants need to get their ground game back on track. They surrendered 168 yards on the ground to the Chargers last week and surrendering an average of 19.9 FPTs to opposing RBs over the last five weeks.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 220 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Steve Smith: 55 yds
Mario Manningham: 60
Hakeem Knicks: 55 yds/1 TD
Kevin Boss: 45/1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 90 yds/1 TD

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Tony Scheffler
Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter (vs. NYG)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -2.3%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -3.3%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -13.8%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +36.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton limped in to the game last week after the Broncos fell behind 13-0 and Chris Simms failed to get the offense moving. Orton was able to drive the Broncos to the red zone where they failed to capitalize. He will start but not be back to full strength, which could be a problem if the Giants get their talented pass rush back on track. Orton should see the return of his RT Ryan Harris to help keep them at bay. Leading WR Brandon Marshall has a tough match-up with Giant CB Corey Webster. Webster played well last week keeping Roddy White in check and can man-up on Marshall if the Broncos fail to threaten the field vertically.

Overall, the Giants pass defense has struggled after losing both starting safeties to injury. The Giants DC Bill Sheridan is under fire largely due to the underwhelming pass rush his schemes have produced with the same talented defensive line from last season’s dominant unit. The Giants only rank 14th in the league with 22 sacks.

Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos had success on the ground losing 32-3. Moreno enjoys a two to one advantage in carries over the season but both backs continue to share enough to render them weak fantasy plays. The Broncos run game will benefit from the return of RT Ryan Harris, part of the best OT combo’s in the league. The Giants surrender 104 yds rushing per game while the Broncos average 112.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 225 yds/1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 70 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 55 yards
Tony Scheffler: 40 yds
Correll Buckhalter: 45 yds/35 rec
Knowshon Moreno: 65 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: New York 24 Denver 17 ^ Top

Browns @ Bengals (Mack)

Brady Quinn / Jamal Lewis
Mohamed Massaquoi / Josh Cribbs / Mike Furrey / Michael Gaines (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.6%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -20.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -13.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +4.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The 37 points the Cleveland Browns scored last week against the Detroit Lions were the most points they scored in their previous five games combined. They were an abysmal bunch offensively and left a lot to be desired. But gone this week is the Swiss cheese Detroit secondary; in its place will be a Cincy defense that got embarrassed last week in Oakland. If there is a weakness the Bengals defense, however, it’s their pass defense. They’re only ranked 19th against the pass, and Oakland QB Bruce Grankowski even played well against them. I doubt that Quinn will be able to match the success of the Oakland passing game though.

The offensive explosion against Detroit notwithstanding, the Browns are short on any receiving weapon to speak of. Mohamed Massaquoi is a rookie who is showing promise, but he has a long way to go. Mike Furrey is average possession receiver; only Josh Cribbs has any discernable fantasy value, but that comes mostly from his role in the return game. Don’t expect anything near the production through the air that this team enjoyed last week. The Browns entered last week’s game against Detroit a below-average passing team and they enter this week’s game with the same label. Steer clear of this bunch.

Running Game Thoughts: You have to wonder if Jamal Lewis doesn’t score a TD in an offensive-heavy game against a weak opponent like Detroit, when will he score? He hasn’t scored since week 9 of 2008, plus he only has one 100 yard game in his last 24 games. It’s numbers like that that make you question why he’s even on your team. Lewis’ production aside, the Bengals have the 2nd best rush defense in the league and they’ve held in check much better running teams than Cleveland, so the limited and conservative expectations you have had for Jamal Lewis all season should continue into week 12.

Projections:
Brady Quinn – 155 yards / 1 TD / 3 INTs
Jamal Lewis – 55 yards
Mohamed Massaquoi – 60 yards
Josh Cribbs – 35 yards / 1 TD
Mike Furrey – 20 yards
Michael Gaines – 25 yards

Carson Palmer / Bernard Scott
Chad Ochocinco / Laveranues Coles / Andre Caldwell / John Paul Foschi (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.7%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +39.7%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.0%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +15.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Just when we all thought the 2005 edition of Carson Palmer had returned after his 5 TD performance against Chicago in week 7, he has since gone back to his average fantasy ways. He has only 1 TD pass in the last three games, leaving those who thought he had turned the corner out in the cold. The Browns have the league’s worst overall defense and the 26th ranked pass defense and allowed rookie QB Matt Stafford to have the best game of his brief career. Expect Palmer to have a good game and rebound from his three-game streak of stink bombs.

Palmer’s struggles have in turn limited the production of his receivers. Chad Ochocinco’s production, in particular, has mirrored Palmer’s decline in play. He has no TD receptions in the last three games and has yet to have more than 67 receiving yards in that stretch. That will change this week. Fellow receivers Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell are both low-end fantasy options but could see an uptick in their value with the weak opponent.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson has yet to practice this week as of this writing and is a big question mark to play. Bernard Scott replaced him last week and performed well. There’s a good chance he gets the majority of the carries again and should at least put up the numbers he did last week against the Browns’ 29th-ranked run defense. Cincinnati has morphed into a physical team that centers its offensive approach on the running game. The Bengals will look to punch the Browns in the mouth early and establish the physical presence that they hope will break the will of the struggling Cleveland team. Since Benson has yet to practice, look for him to be inactive and for Scott to continue his stellar play.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 220 yards / 2 TDs
Bernard Scott – 115 yards / 1 TD
Chad Ochocinco – 95 yards / 1 TD
Laveranues Coles – 50 yards / 1 TD
Andre Caldwell – 30 yards
John Paul Foschi – 30 yards

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 13 ^ Top

Bears @ Vikings (Mack)

Jay Cutler / Matt Forte
Devin Hester / Earl Bennett / Johnny Knox / Greg Olsen (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.0%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.5%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.5%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +47.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has been an utter disaster from a fantasy perspective this year. Not only does he have 1 TD and 6 INTs in the last two games, but he has at least 1 INT in 15 of his last 16 games. That’s not the kind of hit-or-miss play you need from your starting QB during this most crucial part of the fantasy regular season. Cutler is way too erratic to be counted on. He’s sure to throw a couple interceptions in this contest. Minnesota has the most sacks in the league and will be in Cutler’s face all game long. That kind of pressure will hurry his throws, and Cutler has shown he’s not his best when he’s hurried.

Devin Hester was shut down last week with only 18 reception yards, and he only has 1 TD in the last seven games. Earl Bennett is useless and after a hot start to the season Johnny Knox has become just as useless. Greg Olsen is the best receiving option on the team. His multi-dimensional skill set, speed and athleticism make him a match-up nightmare. He’s an essential starter in TE-required leagues; Hester is a bottom-tier WR2. Bennett and Knox are benchwarmers; keep ‘em there.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m sure those who own Matt Forte break into hives when they hear his name. He has struggled beyond measure this year, and it’s becoming a tough decision to even put him in your line-up. Two rushing TDs in the last six games is not the stuff of fantasy RB starters. What’s more, he has only one game of more than 41 yards on the ground in that same span. Forte does have 18 receptions in the last 3 games, so that’s been his one saving grace. He’d be a total waste if not for that. Don’t expect for him to snap out of his funk this week. Minnesota has the 3rd ranked run defense in the league and is coming off a great performance against Seattle last week when they held the Seahawks to only 4 rushing yards. If you expect Forte to put up the receiving production he has recently, start him. If not, you’d be better served starting someone else with a more attractive match-up.

Projections:
Jay Cutler – 195 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Matt Forte – 40 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Devin Hester – 75 yards
Earl Bennett – 30 yards
Johnny Knox – 20 yards
Greg Olsen – 40 yards / 1 TD

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice / Bernard Berrian / Percy Harvin / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Chicago)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.9%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -6.1%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.7%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -0.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre continues his hot streak. With 9 TDs and zero interceptions in the last three games, Favre has become a bona fide fantasy starter. He’s reliable, explosive and consistent and has single-handedly won several games for his owners so far in 2009. What’s most intriguing about Favre this year is his success has come with him not having to throw the ball all over the place. He averaged only 27 attempts over the last three games, yet he’s enjoyed a high level of mistake-free success. Chicago has held its own against the pass this season. They’re ranked 8th in the league but have surrendered 18 TD passes. Sidney Rice is as solid a fantasy receiver as there is in 2009 and is a must-start, obviously. Bernard Berrian has done little, but Percy Harvin is a great weapon in the Vikings offense and is always a threat to score either through the air or on the ground. Visanthe Shiancoe is a poor man’s Antonio Gates and is a good start most weeks; this is one of those weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: Here’s the bad news about Adrian Peterson: his 999 yards are the fewest he’s had through 10 games in his career. The good news: he has the most TDs he’s had through 10 games of any season. The better news: in four games against Chicago, Peterson has 8 rushing TDs. Couple that with Chicago’s 23rd ranked rush defense and what you have is a golden opportunity for a big game. The Bears have given up an average of 157 yards on the ground over the last five games, but they’ve seen nothing like the running game the Vikings will give them. As if Peterson’s prowess in the running game is not enough, his 25 receptions on the season are the most he’s had in any full season. Expect more of the same this week.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 265 yards / 2 TDs
Adrian Peterson – 140 yards / 1 TD
Sidney Rice – 130 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 65 yards
Bernard Berrian – 30 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 40 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Chicago 10 ^ Top

Steelers @ Ravens (Mack)

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Mike Wallace / Heath Miller (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.9%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -18.2%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.7%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -15.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger appears to be healthy enough to start after suffering a mild concussion last week. He gets to play Baltimore for the first time this season, a team he’s had moderate success against. In his last two games against the Ravens, he averaged 218 passing yards with 2 total TDs and an interception. Those are numbers that you should expect this week. Even though Baltimore isn’t the stingy defense they’ve been known as during the last couple years, their 17th ranked pass defense is still a force and capable of making things tough for opposing defenses. The Ravens have also given up the fourth fewest points on the season.

Hines Ward has been the undisputed #1 WR in Pittsburgh’s attack. He has 21 receptions and 3 TDs over the last three games. Santonio Holmes has 20 receptions in that same span, but he hasn’t scored since week 1. Mike Wallace is the team’s deep threat and leads the Steelers with an 18 yards per reception average. Ward is a solid WR2 this week and Holmes is a borderline WR3. Heath Miller is a startable TE.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall has been up and down since he was handed the keys to the Pittsburgh running game. He hasn’t scored on the ground in four games and he’s normally nonexistent in the passing game, although he had a reception TD last week against Kansas City. Willie Parker has become a complete afterthought in fantasy circles. He’s a good back-up on an NFL team but nothing more than a #5 fantasy RB. Baltimore’s 5th ranked run defense will give the Steelers everything they can handle. Mendenhall should still be the centerpiece of an offensive approach that may be conservative in nature. With Roethlisberger coming back from his slight head injury, Pittsburgh’s strategy could be to incorporate the running game more, especially early in the contest. Mendenhall will be the beneficiary of that philosophy. Keep in mind, though, it was the Baltimore game last year when Mendenhall was injured for the season. We’ll see if Mendenhall’s pride takes over and leads him to a productive game against a tough foe.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 230 yards / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 80 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 90 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 50 yards
Mike Wallace – 40 yards
Heath Miller – 25 yards

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Kelley Washington / Todd Heap (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -12.2%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -39.6%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.4%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -12.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been an absolute miserable three-game stretch for Joe Flacco recently. In games against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Indianapolis, he’s thrown for a TOTAL of zero TDs and 3 INTs. Whether defenses have figured out how to slow him down after a fast start is debatable, but the bottom line is he simply isn’t playing as well as he did during the first quarter of the season. This may be a game in which Flacco can recapture his magic because Pittsburgh is ranked 13th in the league against the pass and even gave up 248 yards and 2 TDs to Matt Cassel last week.

Derrick Mason absolutely schooled the inexperienced CBs of Indianapolis last week. Baltimore’s D-backs aren’t as green as the Colts, but they can still be had. Mason should be able to pick up where he left off and somehow find the end zone for the first time in a month. Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington have no fantasy relevance, but Todd Heap is a borderline #1 fantasy TE.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice continues to provide the kind of production that warrants his weekly-starter status. He’s the Ravens’ leading rusher and receiver, but the second year RB will have his hands full going up against the league’s top-ranked run defense. This will be a low-scoring game with both running games playing a primary role in each team’s offensive success. Rice will be active in screen passes and short dump-offs and should once again lead the team in receptions. Willis McGahee is not worth a start, so Rice is the way to go here. Rice’s production may be spotty this week against a tough divisional opponent, but he’s proven too valuable to bench. Start him and hope for the best.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 195 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Ray Rice – 60 yards rushing / 35 yards rec
Derrick Mason – 55 yards
Mark Clayton – 35 yards
Kelley Washington – 20 yards
Todd Heap – 30 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Rams (Eakin)

Matt Hasselbeck/Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/John Carlson
Justin Forsett/Julius Jones (vs. STL)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +10.8%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +29.1%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +1.8%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +17.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Seahawks are 13th in the league in passing but have struggled of late, slipping to 3-7 on the year including three of the last four. Matt Hasselbeck and co. completed just one of ten third down opportunities against Minnesota last week. After enjoying a brief breakout, possession WR Houshmandzadeh fell back to Earth with just 36 yards last week. Nate Burleson is the leading man here and most reliable receiving asset. Once promising TE John Carlson has been slowed by blocking duties, thanks to Seattle’s O-line struggles. Much of the slack has been picked up by RB Justin Forsett, who has been one of the most targeted RBs in the league over the last four games, including eight receptions for 80 yards in Minnesota.

Most will assume a match-up with the Rams is a free hall pass for fantasy glory but the Rams have been tough of late. No offense was running as hot as the Cardinals were coming in to last week when the Rams only conceded 21 points. The improved play of 2nd year DE Chris Long is a big part of the turnaround.

Running Game Thoughts: The birth of Justin Forsett as a fantasy waiver-wire superstar may have suffered a setback with the possible return of Julius Jones. HC Jim Mora said this week Jones would start when healthy despite a clamoring from the rest of the civilized world to give the job to Forsett, who has been much more effective. Jones is recovering from a bruised lung and was practicing as of Wednesday. If Jones plays, he is a flex play at best, as they probably work him back slowly. Forsett could still have value in PPR (Point per Reception) scoring leagues because he is so active in Seattle pass attack.

The Rams rush defense is lead by promising rookie MLB James Lauranitis. He made 16 solo tackles last week and is on pace for 120 plus for the year.

Prediction:
Matt Hasselbeck: 255 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Nate Burleson: 85 yds/1 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 70 yds
John Carlson: 45 yds
Justin Forsett: 35 yds/70 rec /1 TD
Julius Jones: 60 yds/1 TD

Marc Bulger/Donnie Avery/Brandon Gibson/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. ARI)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +10.1%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: 0.0%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +31.5%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -10.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Marc Bulger is out 3-6 weeks with a leg fracture. Kyle Boller will start is his place. Boller has two TDs and three INTs on the year and will be trying relying on the young combo of Donnie Avery and Brandon Gibson. Gibson has been heavily targeted since entering the line-up with mixed success. He has struggled making in-game route adjustments that could lead to some Seattle turnover opportunity. The Ram pass offense is best avoided regardless of the who’s playing QB.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson is an elite fantasy RB now that he is scoring TDs. He’s a virtual lock for 125-150 total yards per game, is 2nd behind only Chris Johnson with 1031 rushing yards, and is very active in the passing game. A key match-up in this game will be Jackson vs. MLB David Hawthorne. Many suggest Hawthorne has been much better than the once well thought of Lofa Tatupu whom he replaced. Hawthorne had twelve stops at halftime last week and finished with fifteen, increasing his totals to 71 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 INTs in just six starts for the second year player out of TCU. The Seahawks as a team are

Projection:
Kyle Boller: 200 yds/1 TD/2 INT
Donnie Avery: 70 yds/1 TD
Brandon Gibson: 70 yds
Randy McMichael: 30 yds
Steven Jackson: 110 yds/25 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 24 Rams 17 ^ Top

Jaguars @ 49ers (Eakin)

David Garrard/Mike Sims-Walker/Torry Holt/Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +3.1%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +1.8%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +6.9%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -17.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Interesting match-up here with David Garrard on the road versus a weak 49er pass defense. Garrard has struggled on the road this year but two of those games were without his top target, Mike Sims-Walker, in the starting line-up. I think both are comfortable starters this week. They were able to connect for a touchdown in their last road game at the Jets so poor road numbers are no longer as relevant. Torry Holt is still holding father time back and making solid contributions mostly on underneath routes and 3rd down conversions. Holt’s numbers are solid with the exception of no touchdowns on the year. TE Marcedes Lewis is a marginal play this week as the Niner’s give up the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: Breaking news, start Maurice Jones-Drew this week, despite the 49ers being solid against the run. The beauty of Jones-Drew is that not only is he a fantastic runner, but he leads the league in rushing TDs (13) and is active in the passing game as well. That makes Jones-Drew match-up proof. He will lock horns with 49er MLB Patrick Willis, the heir apparent to Ray Lewis as the best in the business.

Projections:
David Garrard: 255 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Mike Sims-Walker: 80 yds/1 TD
Torry Holt: 60 yds
Marcedes Lewis: 35 yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 80 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Alex Smith/Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. JAC)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +10.6%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -11.9%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +37.9%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -40.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Alex Smith played well in a furious comeback attempt that fell just short in Green Bay. WR Michael Crabtree caught the first TD of his promising young career, where he has made an immediate impact upon entering the starting line-up. The once sputtering pass attack now looks on the verge of big things with Crabtree and the stunning emergence of TE Vernon Davis. Davis led the team last week with six catches for 108 yards and a score, which is now a standard stat line for the breakout and league leading TE.

Jacksonville does not boast a great pass defense but they do cover TEs well. The Jaguars give up the third least fantasy points to opposing TEs, making them a tough match-up for Vernon Davis.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore comes in after a tough week in Green Bay where he managed just 59 yards. The Niner’s got behind early and had to abandon the run early so Gore had to do his damage on just seven carries. The Jags are tough against the run but Gore should put up good totals at home where the Niner’s are not likely to fall behind so early again.

The Jaguars are expecting to get MLB Justin Durant back form concussion this week. Durant is the nerve center of the defense and will be key to limiting Gore. Rookie DE Julius Williams will make his debut replacing Bryan Smith in the starting line-up. The Niner’s will look to exploit him to get Gore free off tackle.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 200 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 70 yds/1 TD
Josh Morgan: 40 yds
Vernon Davis: 70 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 80 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 24 Jacksonville 21 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Chargers (Eakin)

Matt Cassel/Chris Chambers/Lance Long/Sean Ryan
Jamaal Charles (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -12.7%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +3.2%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -15.2%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +9.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: A victory over the Steelers last week shows the development of the Chiefs since the start of the season. The loss of Larry Johnson has been classic addition by subtraction. The new threat of a rushing attack has opened things up for Matt Cassel. With Dewayne Bowe out, Chris Chambers stepped in to deliver the big play that set-up Chiefs win. Chambers will have something extra to play for this week facing his old team that cut him mid-season.

Chambers will match up with CB Quentin Jammer. Familiarity of facing each other in practice may offset some of Chamber’s vengeance to favor Jammer in a battle that will be key to deciding the game’s outcome. On the other side, Lance Long did not play a big part with just two receptions for 37 yards.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles was held to 58 yards on 17 carries facing one of the league’s best rush defenses in Pittsburg but he still provides a more of a spark than the plodding Larry Johnson. Charles is the undisputed workhorse despite speculation of Kolby Smith getting more work. Smith saw just one carry last week.

Projection:
Matt Cassel: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Chris Chambers: 70 yds/1 TD
Lance Long: 40 yds
Sean Ryan: 50 yds/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 70 yds/25 rec

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Malcom Floyd/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +14.8%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +15.8%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +22.8%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -3.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chargers come to KC riding a five game win streak thanks in large part to the leadership of Phillip Rivers. After leaning heavily upon Vincent Jackson through the early season, Rivers has really balanced out his targeting between Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Legedu Naanee, and Antonio Gates. The receiving core is big and athletic, with Naanee the smallest target at 6’2’’ 220 while the rest of them are each 6’5’’. Rivers will be able spread the Chiefs out and exploit mismatches against the smaller Chief secondary.

The Chiefs, giving up the 6th most FPTs to opposing QBs, square off against the 11th best passing team in the league. Though they pulled out a victory against the Steelers at home last week, they gave up 398 yards and two TDs through the air. Tough to imagine them winning too many games like that moving forward.

Running Game Thoughts: LaDainian Tomlinson’s improved running has been a big part of the Chargers turnaround. He’s routinely putting up around seventy yards a game with a score during their streak. No reason to think he won’t keep it going against a Chiefs run defense allowing the 8th most FPTs per game to opposing RBs.

Projection:
Philip Rivers: 230 yds/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 65 yds/1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 55 yds
Antonio Gates: 60 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 70 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Diego 31 Kansas City 20 ^ Top

Panthers @ Jets (Marcoccio)

Jake Delhomme/DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
Steve Smith/Mushin Muhammad/Dante Rosario (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -25.0%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.2%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -26.3%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -29.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: To his credit, Jake Delhomme has shaken off his terrible start to the season and has played relatively well over the last several weeks. He was a turnover machine early on, but heads into this game at the Meadowlands as the QB less likely to suffer a meltdown. Steve Smith is the only legit weapon in the passing game, as he uses his incredible quickness and surprising strength to create a tough matchup for any corner back assigned to cover him. However, if Darrelle Revis is able to keep up his streak of shutting down top WRs, the Panthers will have no passing game to speak of.

Revis should be covering Steve Smith a majority of the time, so Smith’s owners must temper expectations. Last week during Revis-Moss II, it was the corner back who once again got the best of the matchup even though Moss managed the score on a short TD reception. Luckily for the Jets Carolina does not really possess another threat in the passing game with Mushin Muhammad aging fast and with a bunch of mediocre TEs on the roster. Lito Sheppard and Dwight Lowery have been terrible covering No. 2 WRs and Kerry Rhodes has not provided adequate safety help, but this opponent does not have a Wes Welker. It will all fall on Revis to stop the passing game.

Running Game Thoughts: Carolina features two of the most talented RBs in the league with their combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The duo was dubbed “Smash and Dash”, last season – much to the dismay of Lendale White – but the moniker was a little deceiving. It implied that Williams (“Dash”) is a small quick back while Stewart (“Smash”) plods away earning those tough yards. The truth is at 217 pounds Williams is plenty big and can gain tough inside yards and Stewart possesses tremendous speed for a back his size. Expect a heavy does of the pair this Sunday.

The loss of NT Kris Jenkins has left a gaping hole in the middle of the Jets defense that has been exposed by the opposition and has been really evident the last two weeks. Maurice Jones-Drew and Laurence Maroney had big holes to run through and gained big chunks of yardage. Safety Kerry Rhodes who looked like a Pro Bowl talent at one point of his young career has looked very bad this season in attempting to make tackles and was bowled over by the thought to be soft Maroney in New England last week. The Jets will need to game plan to stop the run if they hope to change their losing ways.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 165 yards, 2 Ints.
Steve Smith: 65 yds receiving
Mushin Muhammad: 30 yds receiving
Dante Rosario: 25 yds receiving
DeAngelo Williams: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Jonathan Stewart: 35 yds rushing, 1 TD

Mark Sanchez/ Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cothery/Dustin Keller (vs. CAR)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -11.2%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +20.7%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -25.8%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -16.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Expect a very conservative passing attack from the Jets this week, after another poor performance from the Sanchize. Mark Sanchez threw 4 interceptions last week, including another that was returned for a TD that put the Jets in a hole right off the bat. Don’t expect the Jets to put the ball in the air very often, meaning all receiving threats for the Jets are a dangerous start.

Carolina has been very tough against the pass this season. They allow only 185.0 yards per game and have given up 12 TDs in 10 games. Julius Peppers can still bring the pressure on occasion (7 sacks) and the secondary has capitalized with 11 interceptions led by Richard Marshall and Sherrod Martin with 3 each. Sanchez will need to protect the ball and not put up big turnover numbers if the Jets wish to survive.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones keeps churning those “old” legs and getting the job done. He went for over 100 yards against the Patriots last week despite his team being down by double digits early in the contest. The Jets have made a greater effort to commit to the run to protect their rookie QB after some very shaky starts by Sanchez and the results have been outstanding. Expect more of the same for the rest of the year.

Like the Jets, the Panthers lost their starting NT which set their run defense back big time. After turning it around a little mid-season, the team has reverted back to allowing big rushing numbers to opposing backs. On the season they have allowed 130.7 ypg and 11 rushing TDs.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 185 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 15 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 40 yds receiving
Jerricho Cotchery: 60 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 120 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 40 yds rushing

Prediction: Jets 20 Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Redskins @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Jason Campbell/Rock Cartwright
Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Antwaan Randle El/Fred Davis (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.5%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -6.6%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -22.0%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +47.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: We have outlined the problem with the Redskins’ passing offense many times in this piece. All that analysis still applies. It is not all Campbell’s fault but it’s typical that the QB takes the fall when an offense struggles so badly and Campbell has already been benched for half a game. If the team had a better long term option that Todd Collins, Campbell likely would have been pulled for good. Next season there will be a new Head Coach, offensive scheme and quarterback in place – there isn’t really much debate on that. There is no one in the passing offense that should get the start for your fantasy team at this point. Move along, nothing to see here.

The Eagles’ defense harassed Jason Campbell during the Monday Night contest in Washington, forcing him each into multiple turnovers. The blitz happy Eagles will likely look to continue that trend this week. The Eagles have more interceptions (16) than TDs allowed (15) this season. This would be a dangerous matchup for Campbell even if he had any hope of salvaging his place in Washington.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis is still suffering from the lingering affects of his concussion and Ladell Betts has been placed on the IR with a torn ACL so the Redskins will start a Flinstones character at RB this week as they play out their season. Rock Cartwright is a hard runner and has had past instances of success – including last week when he replaced Betts so if you’re in a bind at the RB position his fresh legs may come in handy.

The Eagles had some struggles playing the run earlier in the season but have come around and now rank 10th in the league in run defense (104.3 ypg and 7 TDs). Safety Quintin leads the team in tackles, which would normally not be ideal, however MLB Will Witherspoon has only been with the Eagles for 5 games since coming over at the trade deadline and the Eagles have has some injuries at the linebacker position.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 210 yds passing, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 30 yds receiving
Devin Thomas: 45 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 20 yds receiving
Fred Davis: 55 yds receiving
Rock Cartwright: 70 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving

Donovan McNabb/LeSean McCoy
Desean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin/Brent Celek (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -25.4%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -19.0%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -18.7%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -30.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb has always had the ability to throw a very nice deep ball – if not the greatest accuracy on short and mid range passes – and now has a couple of WRs with outstanding deep speed. Desean Jackson is playmaker. With the ball in his hands, only Titans RB Chris Johnson is faster and more dynamic than Jackson. Rookie Jeremy Maclin has shown big play ability as well since replacing Kevin Curtis in the line-up. When McNabb must check down he can choose to throw to emerging slot/possession WR Jason Avant, athletic TE Brent Celek or rookie RB LeSean McCoy. McNabb can no longer complain about his skill position support.

The Skins may be one of the teams that are better equipped to handle the Philly passing game than most. They have a talented and physical secondary in LaRon Landry, Carlos Rodgers, DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot and should be able to keep the Eagles from moving up and down the field in large chunks. The defense has kept the team in games while the offense has floundered and it will likely fall on their shoulders once again.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook could be lost for the season with post concussion symptoms, but rookie LeSean McCoy has filled in admirably. McCoy is a Westbrook-lite like back in that he can be a dynamic playmaker and is deceptively strong for his frame. He’s made a believer out of me. Those Westbrook owners that didn’t handcuff McCoy have to be kicking themselves.

Earlier this season Washington was holding most opposing runners in check. However in recent weeks, Michael Turner, Knowshon Moreno and Marion Barber have produced against the Skins. On the season the team is allowing 128.4 ypg and 5 rushing TDs to their opponents, so McCoy isn’t a bad start this week.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 265 yds passing 2 TDs / 20 yds rushing
Jeremy Maclin: 80 yds receiving
Desean Jackson: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 35 yds receiving
LeSean McCoy: 75 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving, 1 TD

Prediction: Eagles 21 Redskins 10 ^ Top

Dolphins @ Bills (Marcoccio)

Chad Henne/Ricky Williams/Lex Hilliard
Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -21.1%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +50.3%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -34.6%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +6.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Chad Henne hasn’t been asked to do much, but hasn’t played too poorly at all for a young QB and has kept his team in the playoff hunt sine taking over for the injured Chad Pennington. HC Tony Sparano has played it safe with the young Henne, but Henne has shown enough tools to give Phins fans hope for the future. Of course it would help if that future involved acquiring a legitimate wide receiver.

Since Buffalo’s secondary has become healthier, it has become much more effective than it was earlier this season. They have become a ball hawking unit collecting 17 interceptions on the season (2nd in the league). Rookie Jairus Byrd has 8 of those interceptions, so Henne must account for him when he looks downfield. On the season the Bills are ranked 10th allowing 200.8 ypg and 8 TDs. The nature of the Dolphins offense though is to attack on the ground anyway, and that is where the Bills just happen to be most vulnerable.

Running Game Thoughts: Ricky Williams is having an amazing season at 32 years of age. He’s running like he did during his initial stint with the Dolphins and has shown no signs of slowing down. Miami will need this to continue of course with Ronnie Brown lost for the season. Bruising tailback Lex Hilliard should take some of the burden off the Rasta, and he ran well last week making his season debut. The 240 pound back out of Montana could be a sneaky start against a porous Bills run defense.

The Bills pass defense may be ranked so high statistically because teams have been able to run all over them. They sit near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed per game (165.9) and additionally, they have allowed 15 rushing TDs on the season. Hopefully none of you reading this are facing Ricky Williams this week (if so don’t look at the above numbers showing FF Points Allowed v. RBs until after you’ve digestedd your Thanksgiving meal).

Projections:
Chad Henne: 200 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 45 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 40 yds receiving, TD
Davone Bess: 55 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 20 yds receiving
Lex Hilliard: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD
Ricky Williams: 115 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 30 yds receiving

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Shawn Nelson (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +10.5%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -12.9%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.2%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +27.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The new (interim) coaching staff wasted no time naming former Harvard and current mediocre NFL QB Ryan Fitzpatrick the starting QB over the incumbent Trent Edwards. Sucks to be Trent. To his credit Fitzpatrick has shown a willingness to take a few shots downfield at least, which makes Lee Evans relevant once again and somehow even managed to make Terrell Owens relevant once again last week. TO exploded for over 190 yards and a TD last week – don’t expect that again. Fitzpatrick is also a little more mobile than Edwards, which helps behind the Bills poor o-line.

Miami has been very poor against the pass this season and have been worse since starting 2 rookie CBs once Will Allen went down, so perhaps Fitzpatrick can move the ball through the air. Overall, Miami has allowed 235.6 yards per game and 12 TDs on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch left last week’s game with a shoulder injury and his status for this week is uncertain. That would bode well for owners that own both Buffalo backs as Fred Jackson (who was the early season bright spot in the Bills offense) has been useless since Lynch returned from his suspension.

The Dolphins are the 12th ranked run defense (105.9 ypg) and have allowed 10 rushing TDs this season. The line backer corp. has been banged up in recent weeks so the sledding has been easier against Miami than it was in the early season.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 210 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 25 yds rushing
Lee Evans: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Terrell Owens: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shawn Nelsom: 15 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 75 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 25 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Prediction: Dolphins 28 Bills 20 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Falcons (Kilroy)

Josh Freeman / Carnell “Cadillac” Williams / Derrick Ward
Antonio Bryant / Michael Clayton / Maurice Stovall / Kellen Winslow (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.4%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +8.1%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.9%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +47.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Freeman received a moderate amount of praise following the first two starts of his career, but last Sunday’s outing against the Saints didn’t impress anybody. He finished the afternoon connecting on 17 of his 33 attempts for 126 yards and a touchdown, but he also threw 3 interceptions. This week he’ll face an Atlanta secondary that has surrendered 16 touchdown passes in 10 games and ranks 29th in the NFL with an average of 253.4 passing yards allowed per contest.

The Buccaneers passing game – along with their offense in general – hasn’t been the best source of fantasy production, but Freeman might be worth using this week if you’re desperate for help at the QB position. Atlanta has had trouble defending tight ends, which should translate into a successful outing for Kellen Winslow. It wouldn’t be a shock if Freeman were to connect on two touchdown passes this week with 20-30 yards rushing and about 200 yards through the air.

Running Game Thoughts: Carnell Williams continues to work as the starter in Tampa Bay, but outside of a few strong outings his production has been dismal. It doesn’t help matters any that he loses touches to Derrick Ward throughout games as well. Even against Atlanta’s 24th ranked rushing defense (126.1 ypg) it’s still a risk to start any member of the Buccaneers backfield. If you start Williams expect a 60-80 yard outing and keep your fingers crossed that he punches one into the end zone.

Projections:
Josh Freeman – 200 yards passing / 2 TDs / 20 yards rushing
Carnell “Cadillac” Williams – 65 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Derrick Ward – 35 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Antonio Bryant – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Clayton – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Maurice Stovall – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kellen Winslow – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD

Matt Ryan / Michael Turner / Jason Snelling / Jerious Norwood
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. Tampa Bay)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +17.2%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +24.3%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +23.0%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: After a 5-game stretch in which Matt Ryan threw 10 interceptions, and averaged only 206 passing yards per contest, he finally put together a strong outing in Week 11. Not only did Ryan not commit a turnover, he also threw for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Tampa Bay he faces a defensive unit yielding just 209.4 yards passing on average to opponents. They’ve also allowed 22 touchdown passes however, which is third most in the league. Expect Ryan to pick up where he left off last week with another productive day, although his yardage total is likely to be held in check.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner (high ankle sprain) was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday and for the most part is considered a game time decision for this week’s outing against the Buccaneers. If he partakes in Friday’s practice it would be a strong indication he will play on Sunday, but even if he does it’s possible Jason Snelling would handle the majority of the carries, making Turner a risky start.

Another factor added into the Falcons running back mix is Jerious Norwood. Norwood has missed the last five games with a hip flexor injury, but returned to practice this week and is fully expected to play on Sunday. It’s a shame the Falcons running back situation is a bit muddled heading into this week’s outing against Tampa Bay because the Buccaneers defense has had an awful time defending the run. They rank last in the league with an average of 168.9 rushing yards allowed per game and have allowed 12 touchdowns via the ground this season.

Jason Snelling remains the safest option among the trio, but if Michael Turner is declared active for the contest it makes him a risky play. Jerious Norwood will likely see a handful of carries while trying to be worked into the passing game.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 220 yards passing / 2 TDs
Michael Turner – Game Time Decision
Jason Snelling – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD
Jerious Norwood – 40 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Roddy White – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 14 ^ Top

Colts @ Texans (Kilroy)

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. Houston)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.9%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.5%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.8%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -3.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: The last time these two teams met (Week 9) Peyton Manning was limited to 1 touchdown pass while throwing for 318 yards. A quick glance at the Texans defensive numbers against the pass would lead most to believe their secondary has held it’s own (they rank 14th in the NFL with an average of 212.8 passing yards allowed per game and have limited opponents to 11 touchdown passes on the season), but you realize the numbers are skewed when taking their opponents into account. Three of their games have come against Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, and Carson Palmer while in the other seven they have faced Mark Sanchez, Kerry Collins, David Garrard, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith (along with Shaun Hill), and Vince Young.

In their seven games against lesser opponents they limited teams to 187.7 passing yards per game. In the three games they have played against Manning, Warner, and Palmer that number jumps to 293. Expect Peyton to bounce back from his subpar outing against Baltimore last week to throw for over 300 yards with multiple touchdowns this Sunday against the Texans.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts continue to struggle with their production on the ground, but it hasn’t stopped Joseph Addai from finding the end zone 10 times this season (7 rushing TDs, 3 receiving). With the Texans having allowed 13 rushing touchdowns in 10 games there’s a good chance Addai will come away from this one with his 11th touchdown of the year. Donald Brown (shoulder) should be active this Sunday as well, although he hasn’t factored into the Colts offense much the past two weeks.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 315 yards passing / 2 TDs
Joseph Addai – 70 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Donald Brown – 20 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Reggie Wayne – 100 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 80 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Austin Collie – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dallas Clark – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Matt Schaub / Steve Slaton / Chris Brown
Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / James Casey (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -15.2%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -7.2%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +0.0%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -50.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Like Indianapolis, Houston has struggled with their ground game but rank among the top of the league with their air attack. Their 284 passing yards per game is third highest in the NFL, as is their 19 touchdown passes, which should match-up well against the Colts 18th ranked pass defense (218.2 passing yards allowed per game). Indianapolis has limited opponents to just 7 touchdown passes this year however, which happens to be the fewest allowed in the NFL. With this game expected to be such a high scoring affair though, Matt Schaub will have ample opportunity to connect with targets in the end zone – he’ll have to if the Texans are to have any chance of knocking off the undefeated Colts.

Running Game Thoughts: Steve Slaton returned to the starting line-up last week against the Titans, but finished with just 5 carries for 21 yards. He did come away with a touchdown reception and 42 yards receiving however, making him the most productive player amongst Houston’s running backs. Chris Brown finished the afternoon with 11 carries for 36 yards, and though that stat line isn’t impressive, head coach Gary Kubiak seemed pleased with his production. Ryan Moats, thought to be a waiver wire gem just a few weeks ago, didn’t receive any touches in the game against Tennessee.

This Sunday, it appears Brown will again be in line to handle most of the carries considering Kubiak’s comments about him following last Sunday’s game. At this point though it’s anybody’s guess as to how Kubiak will filter through his options at running back. For now, continue to expect Slaton to receive a handful of carries throughout games while being factored into the offense during passing situations with Chris Brown to handle the majority of carries. Of course, that could all change by Week 13.

Projections:
Matt Schaub – 255 passing yards / 2 TDs
Steve Slaton – 25 yards rushing / 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Chris Brown – 55 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Andre Johnson – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter – 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
James Casey – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Houston 20 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Titans (Kilroy)

Kurt Warner / Tim Hightower / Chris “Beanie” Wells
Larry Fitzgerald / Anquan Boldin / Steve Breaston (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +40.3%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.9%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +55.3%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +9.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Coming off an outing in which they allowed Matt Schaub to throw for 305 yards and 2 touchdowns, chances are the Titans will have a difficult task this Sunday defending Kurt Warner and his cast of weapons. For the season, Tennessee ranks 31st against the pass yielding 271.7 passing yards per game. The 25 touchdown passes they’ve allowed also happens to be most in the NFL heading into this week’s game, so expect plenty of production from Warner and company.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cardinals ground game has improved in recent weeks, but they still rank 27th in the league with an average of just 94.1 rushing yards per game. The Titans are yielding an average of 104.1 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 9th in the NFL. The 4.4 yards per carry opponents’ average against them however happens to be among the more robust figures in the league, so Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower should be able to come across some decent yardage in this one. Wells will try to make it three straight games with a touchdown, though he may come up empty in that category this week.

Projections:
Kurt Warner – 290 yards passing / 3 TDs
Tim Hightower – 30 yards rushing / 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Chris “Beanie” Wells – 70 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Larry Fitzgerald – 110 yards receiving / 2 TDs
Anquan Boldin – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Steve Breaston – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Vince Young / Chris Johnson / LenDale White
Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Bo Scaife (vs. Arizona)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.7%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.3%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +10.9%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +19.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young’s return to the starting line-up continues to coincide with the Titans 4-game winning streak, but the Cardinals come to town riding a 3-game winning streak of their own as they look to clip the Titans in Tennessee. Young continues to play efficiently, but his fantasy production has yet to dazzle. He’s come away with 1 touchdown in each of the last 4 games (3 passing, 1 rushing) and will likely do so again in this contest against the Cardinals. His passing yards will continue to be limited however as he tries to make up for it with the production he’s able to produce on the ground.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson has been unstoppable in recent weeks, but this might be one in which his numbers come back down to more earthly like production. The Titans are a run first team and will continue to be so throughout the year, but if the Cardinals jumps out in front early in this contest it would limit Johnson’s opportunities. Nonetheless he should still come away with 15-20 carries as he pushes the century mark on the ground. He should also factor into the passing game a bit after being held to zero receptions last week.

Projections:
Vince Young – 175 yards passing / 1 TD / 20 yards rushing
Chris Johnson – 100 yards rushing / 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
LenDale White – 10 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Nate Washington – 30 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kenny Britt – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Arizona 27, Tennessee 17 ^ Top

Patriots @ Saints (Kilroy)

Tom Brady / Laurence Maroney / Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss / Wes Welker / Julian Edelman / Ben Watson (vs. New Orleans)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -14.8%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +3.7%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -0.7%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -33.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: The New Orleans defense has performed surprisingly well this season against the pass, forcing 20 interceptions while limiting opponents to 9 touchdowns and an average of 214.9 passing yards per game. That said, they’ve yet to face an air attack with the means of the New England Patriots. In a game that’s widely expected to be a shootout, Brady and his second ranked aerial assault will have plenty of chances to rack up yards and put points on the board making both Randy Moss and Wes Welker, along with the QB himself, strong plays in Week 12.

Running Game Thoughts: Due to injuries, Laurence Maroney continues to function as the Patriots primary ball carrier. He’s performed well at times, but overall his production has been lacking. He’s made his fantasy owners happy however with the six touchdowns he’s scored in the last five games, but he’ll likely take a hit in that category once Sammy Morris returns to action – another costly fumble may all but guarantee it. Against a Saints defense that has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season Maroney stands a good chance of stretching his streak to six straight games with a score. Keep an eye on the status of Morris though as he could prove to be a goal line vulture should he return to action this week.

Projections:
Tom Brady – 290 yards passing / 3 TDs
Laurence Maroney – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD
Kevin Faulk – 20 yards rushing / 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Randy Moss – 125 yards receiving / 2 TDs
Wes Welker – 100 yards receiving / 1 TD
Julian Edelman – 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Ben Watson – 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Drew Brees / Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush / Mike Bell
Marques Colston / Devery Henderson / Robert Meachem / Jeremy Shockey (vs. New England)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -13.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -12.0%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -9.9%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -22.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has had a nice six-game stretch after putting up back-to-back clunkers in the two weeks prior to that, but the Patriots defense may very well be the toughest unit he’s had to face this season. New England’s secondary ranks 6th in the league with an average of just 187.3 passing yards per game allowed to opponents. They’ve also come away with 13 interceptions, which is 5th most in the NFL. Given this expect Brees to have a more difficult time than usual moving the ball up and down the field, but by the end of the day he should provide solid production.

Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush is expected to return to action after missing last week’s contest due to swelling in his left knee. His return means the Saints three headed running back by committee approach will be in full effect, making it a difficult task for fantasy owners to decide which of the three is most useful. Pierre Thomas has come out on top more often than not, but it was Mike Bell who came away with two scores last week as he received increased playing time in place of Reggie Bush.

The Patriots currently rank 14th in the league against the run with an average of 109.4 yards per game allowed on the ground. They’ve also limited opponents to just 3 rushing touchdowns against them, although the Saints offense leads the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns this season which makes it more likely they’ll be able to punch one in against New England. Expect Pierre Thomas to again come away with the most yardage amongst the three, but it’s anybody’s guess as to which (if any) of the trio reaches pay dirt.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 225 yards passing / 2 TDs
Pierre Thomas – 80 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Reggie Bush – 20 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Mike Bell – 20 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Marques Colston – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Devery Henderson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Robert Meachem – 20 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: New England 31, New Orleans 24 ^ Top