Bears @ 49ers (Eakin)

Jay Cutler/Devin Hester/Earl Bennett/Johnnie Knox/Greg Olsen
Matt Forte (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +0.7%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -1.0%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +7.5%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -20.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler is turning in to this year’s king of garbage time, posting big fantasy numbers while playing from behind in losing efforts. The biggest beneficiary to Cutler’s play has been Devin Hester. Hester is enjoying his best year as a pro leading the Bears with 548 yards on 41 receptions with three TDs. Cutler’s chemistry with TE Greg Olsen has approved of late, especially in the red zone, where Olsen caught three TDs last week. He now has a team high six scores on the year. While both Olsen and Hester make for solid fantasy plays, Earl Bennett and Johnnie Knox have been too inconsistent to gamble on. Knox especially, has cooled off since his fast start to the year.

The 49ers are merely average against the pass, ranking 16th in QB FPTs allowed. They are more vulnerable than now that starting CB Nate Clements is out. Jay Cutler being among the league leaders in turnovers and the Bears offensive line has been the source of vulnerability. The Niner’s should dial up plenty of LB Blitzes to put pressure on that unit and force Cutler in to more mistakes.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte continues to struggle behind his poor offensive line. Against good offensive teams, the Bears defensive woes force them to abandon the run. Forte has salvaged his numbers a little by finally getting more involved in the passing game. He caught six balls for 74 yards last week. Forte could post decent rushing numbers since San Francisco does not possess the type of explosive offense that will get the Bears down big early.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 315 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Devin Hester: 75 yds/1 TD
Earl Bennett: 60
Johnnie Knox: 55 yds
Greg Olsen: 65/1 TD
Matt Forte: 70 yds/40 rec yds/1 TD

Alex Smith/Michael Crabtree/Josh Morgan/Jason Hill/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. CHI)

CHI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +14.6%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -6.1%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +12.3%
CHI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +15.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The 49ers are undergoing transition in their passing game with the insertion Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree. Their roles are set but the coaching staff is holding meetings this week to determine who will play alongside Crabtree. Josh Morgan and Jason Hill both played well filling in for previous starter Isaac Bruce who left with an ankle injury. Hill came off the bench to score two TDs, to force himself in to the conversation. We will have to see how it plays out this week, but I suspect Morgan start opposite Crabtree with Hill in the slot. TE Vernon Davis’ scoring abundance has him second only to Dallas Clark in TE FPTs scored this year. The Bears continuing injury woes at LB make him a must start.

Facing a poor Bears secondary, treat Crabtree as a High-end WR2, Morgan as a WR3, and Hill as a sleeper in standard 10-12 team leagues. Bears top cover CB Charles Tillman is expected to play and will be responsible for a lot of man coverage on Crabtree. He allowed Larry Fitzgerald two scores last week.

Running Game Thoughts: Gore has a very favorable match-up with the Bears. The Bears are down to third on the depth chart at MLB with injuries to Brian Urlacher and Hunter Hillenmeyer. To spice it up, DT Tommie Harris did his best impression of the New Mexico women’s soccer team by decking a downed Arizona Cardinal that the entire world saw on replay. He stands a good chance of being suspended by the NFL boxing commission. Harris has been much maligned as of late, but remains the Bears best chance of stopping Gore.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 225 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Michael Crabtree: 80 yds/1 TD
Josh Morgan: 55 yards
Jason Hill: 40 yds
Vernon Davis: 65 yds/1 TD
Frank Gore: 90 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 27 Bears 21 ^ Top

Saints @ Rams (Eakin)

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem/Jeremy Shockey
Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush (vs. STL)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +11.0%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +24.7%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -3.7%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +26.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: In week seven the Colts came in to St. Louis and walked away with a 42-6 drubbing. That game serves as the closest gauge for how this one should go. There is really no ceiling on the Saints offense here. Brees should light up the struggling Ram pass defense giving up the ninth most (20.6) FPTs per game to opposing QBs. Brees will look to WR Marques Colston first. Colston has the speed to get behind defenses and the size to outplay the Rams smaller defenders for balls in the air. The Saints are far from a one trick pony though. If Colston is covered both Devery Henderson and the surging Robert Meachem are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Meachem led the Saints last week with five reception for 98 yards and a score. Both of them should have better than average weeks because of the weaker opposition and the absence of slot WR Lance Moore, who is doubtful with a shin contusion. Another benefactor of Moore’s absence is TE Jeremy Shockey. He serves as the primary underneath hot route for Brees when pressured and in the red zone.

Running Game Thoughts: Pierre Thomas is trending up. Fear of the timeshare with Mike Bell has eased the last few weeks in which Thomas has outperformed Bell, became more involved in the pass attack, and been involved in the lion share of red zone situations. A little piece of fantasy advice, if you can get Pierre Thomas in your league for anything less than a top ten RB or WR, go get him. With St. Louis this week and two games against Tampa Bay left on the docket, he is the type of player whose value may sky rocket during the home stretch, and help lead your team to playoff glory. The Saints like to run the ball and will score buckets of points from here on out, with nothing but indoor and fair weather games the rest of the way.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 345 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
Marques Colston: 110 yds/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 60 yds
Robert Meachem: 55 yds/1 TD
Jeremy Shockey: 45 Yds/1 TD
Reggie Bush: 20 yds/35 rec
Pierre Thomas: 80 yds rushing/20 yds rec/1 TD
Mike Bell: 45 yds

Marc Bulger/Donnie Avery/Keenan Burton/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. NO)

NO FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -18.3%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +6.9%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +0.1%
NO FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -39.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Perhaps the Rams were able to address some issues during their bye week but it’s hard to get excited about an offense that could only muster 176 passing yards and zero TDs in their first win of the season at Detroit two weeks ago. The Rams problems start with personnel. The lack playmakers at WR. Leader of the group Donnie Avery has raw speed but is small and hasn’t been sure handed or consistent. Possession WRs Keenan Burton and Danny Amendola could fare better than Avery. Both are decent route runners on short patterns that will be needed to move the chains in the face of an aggressive Saints defense.

At some point, the Saints run of interceptions and notably high number of scoring interceptions should come back to Earth but a tasty matchup versus the Rams is a veritable feeding ground to keep it going. The Rams will fall behind at some point, and start forcing the ball downfield, creating the scenario where the Saints DBs can aggressively jump pass routes. Play the Saints DST with confidence with sacks and turnovers abound.

Running Game Thoughts: Obviously Steven Jackson is the Rams only hope to keep this game under control. Jackson is averaging a healthy 4.6 yards per carry and has recently ended his scoring drought. The Saints have allowed 300 rushing yards in the two games without starting NT Sedrick Ellis. The Rams will feed Jackson a ton to exploit the only hole in the Saints armor.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 160 yds/2 INT
Donnie Avery: 30 yds
Keenan Burton: 40 yds
Danny Amendola: 40 yds
Randy McMichael: 20 yds
Steven Jackson: 100 yds/40 rec yds/1 TD

Prediction: Saints 38 Rams 16 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Raiders (Eakin)

JaMarcus Russell/Louis Murphy/Chaz Schilens/Zach Miller
Justin Fargas/Darren McFadden (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +16.8%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +16.0%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +29.1%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -9.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Bet the NFL is a little discouraged about the choices of this and the Monday Night Raven v Browns national TV barnburners this week. Thank goodness for the Colts v Pats mini-Super Bowl. Can the Raiders pass offense play respectable against the poor Chief pass defense? I tend to doubt it. Not enough to start anyone other than possibly TE Zach Miller. This will be the 4th week in a row that top Oakland WR from 2008, Chaz Schilens, is expected to make his debut. He could be a boost, but even if he can get open, would Russell find him? Let’s wait until Schilens actually plays and does something before adding him to the waiver wire list.

Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders get three key players back after their bye week in G Robert Gallery, T Cornell Green, and RB Darren McFadden. Gallery is their best run-blocker and will boost the Raiders RB value. Fargas has been serviceable in McFadden’s absence, but logic would dictate that Run DMC will play a sizeable role going forward since he is the future. Of course, logic doesn’t always reign supreme in Oakland so his role is anyone’s guess. He’s probably available in most leagues and should be added with Oakland’s weak slate of run defenses down the stretch. For this game, I expect a Fargas to see more touches while McFadden gets his game legs underneath him.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 155 yds/1 INT
Chaz Schilens: 45 yds
Louis Murphy: 40
Zach Miller: 65 yds
Darren McFadden: 35 yds/30 rec
Justin Fargas: 80 yds/20 rec yds/1 TDs

Matt Cassel/Dwayne Bowe/Chris Chambers/Lance Long/Sean Ryan
Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith (vs.OAK)

OAKFF Points Allowed vs. QB: -5.7%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +43.6%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -3.7%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -34.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chief saw two WRs emerge last week in newly acquired Chris Chambers and Lance Long. Long led the team with eleven targets while Chambers scored twice in garbage time. Both could perform well with the Chiefs being primarily a pass offense and Dwayne Bowe being matched up on CB Nnamdi Asomugha. Chambers struggled catching the ball this year but gives the Chiefs much needed size and speed to pair opposite Dwayne Bowe. Chambers is a threat to hit a big play in this one but in a PPR league Long could be a good fill in here. The Raiders struggle in pass defense over the middle, where Long does much of his work. The Chiefs will play a lot of spread formation and Long should see plenty of targets again.

Running Game Thoughts: Kolby Smith’s best game as a pro came in 2007 against the Raiders when he ran for 150 yards on 31 carries with two TDs. I don’t think he repeats his performance, but I also don’t think the Chiefs believe Jamaal Charles can be an every down back. If the Chiefs have a diamond in the rough at RB that takes advantage of their favorable late season schedule, my money is on Smith not Charles. In a PPR league, Charles may out produce him because KC passes so much, but the high upside is Smith, just a hunch. Last week was their first without Larry Johnson, and neither were given enough chances to excel.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 260 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 70 yds
Chris Chambers: 40 yds/1 TD
Lance Long: 60 yds
Jamaal Charles: 30 yds/25 rec
Kolby Smith: 50 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Raiders 20 Chiefs 17 ^ Top

Eagles @ Chargers (Eakin)

Donovan McNabb/DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin/Brent Celek
Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy (vs. SD)

SD FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -17.5%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +13.6%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -26.7%
SD FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +15.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tough to pin down the boom or bust Eagle offense. Generally, McNabb performs strong after posting a dud like the one he had against the Cowboys last week. They have lost some balance without Westbrook on the field. Even though they pass more than any team in the league during Andy Reid’s tenor, they still rely on Westbrook to keep defenses honest and as a threat out of the backfield. His return this week could get them back on track. The Chargers have some talent in the secondary but are susceptible to big play with their aggressive style. DeSean Jackson is certainly capable of making them pay with a league leading six TDs over 50 yards. Jackson is viewed as a mere deep threat but a closer examination shows that McNabb has missed him on some wide open underneath routes of late. If McNabb finds his accuracy, Jackson should continue to be a top ten WR. The rule is, always play your TE when facing the Chargers. They can’t cover them. In fact, no team has surrendered more TDs to opposing TEs then the Chargers. TE Brent Celek may have cooled off a little from his great start, but he has shown the ability to dominate games, and this will be one.

The key for the Chargers has been the return of their pass rush, most notably, Shawne Merriman. He has four sacks in his last two games. He will be a problem lined up over the Eagles LT where they have struggled to keep McNabb clean with starter Jason Peters nursing a sore ankle.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook is expected to start barring a setback in practice Friday. His owners certainly have to be frustrated with him as it seems like he hasn’t played since week four but there is a silver lining. His lack of playing time will mean he has fresh legs down the stretch. The inconsistency of the offense and LeSean McCoy means the Eagles will lean on him when he returns. He’s another guy flying under the radar that could easily turn in to a late season fantasy MVP. It could start now considering the Charger’s lack of a run stopper up front without NT Jamaal Williams.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 260 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
DeSean Jackson: 70 yds/1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 40 yds
Brent Celek: 80 yds/1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 65 yds/40 rec/1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 35 yds/25 rec

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Malcom Floyd/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -0.3%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -13.8%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -17.1%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +49.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Giants limited the Rivers to 209 yards passing but couldn’t keep him out of the end zone. Rivers threw for three TDs including an 18-yard strike to Vincent Jackson with 21 seconds left to seal a Charger victory. The Giants are but just one of a long line of teams to be burned by the dynamic duo. To slow them down the Eagles need DE Trent Cole to have a big day pressuring Rivers. The Eagles will try to bracket Jackson to limit his big play ability, which will leave TE Antonio Gates in man coverages. The Eagles main struggles covering TEs came prior to the addition of MLB Will Witherspoon. He will improve their coverage some but few LBs or safeties can match-up with Gates, who should have a good day. Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee both posted pedestrian numbers replacing the released Chris Chambers. Floyd is the starter and is more of a deep threat that can have some big games but will be inconsistent. Naanee is more of a big underneath target that gets work in the slot. It’s a long shot for either of them to have big games against a good Philly secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Not a big believer in L.T. against good run defenses. He’s not breaking tackles, making people miss, or getting to the outside effectively. Tomlinson carried 12 times for a grand total of 22 yards against what was a reeling Giant defense. The upside of Tomlinson is that he does get scoring chances in this high-octane offense. Therefore, he has a reasonable chance of salvaging bad performances with TDs.

Projection:
Philip Rivers: 270 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 85 yds/1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 45 yds
Antonio Gates: 70 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 45 yds/25 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Philadelphia 27 San Diego 24 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Cardinals (Eakin)

Matt Hasselbeck/Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/John Carlson
Julius Jones/Justin Forsett (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +10.5%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -9.9%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +12.5%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +28.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Hasselbeck has perhaps his worst game of the year at home versus the Cardinals in week six. At the time, he was just coming back from injury and the offensive line was missing three starters. Seattle has put big numbers against poor pass rushes like St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Detroit but struggled against formidable one like Arizona. Nate Burleson is having a good year as Hasselbeck’s top target but his chemistry with Housh has been inconsistent. Housh runs short precise routes and has good hands, which should be a perfect match for Seattle’s precision passing offense, so it’s perplexing why they haven’t fared better. TE John Carlson remains involved in the offense with six receptions last week, he’s just hasn’t been scoring as often as earlier in the year. Don’t expect big numbers from him this week, the Cardinals give up the 5th fewest FPTs to opposing TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m still unclear as to why Justin Forsett isn’t getting more of Julius Jones’ work. Jones only managed 36 yards on 16 carries against the lowly Lions last week while Forsett gained 14 yards on his only carry of the game. For those of you keeping at home, Jones is averaging 3.6 yards per carry to Forsett’s 6.2 per carry. Seattle has done of good job of utilizing both of them as receivers out of the backfield, which is where most of their production will come this week as Arizona is a top run defense and may force the Seahawks in to a track meet.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 260 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Nate Burleson: 60 yds/1 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 40 yds
John Carlson: 50 yds
Justin Forsett: 25 yds/40 rec
Julius Jones: 60 yds/40 rec/1 TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Tim Hightower/Beanie Wells (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -2.7%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -7.0%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +14.9%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -11.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Warner responded to his five INT debacle against the Panthers to throw for five TDs last week in Chicago. Curiously, the Cardinals have fared much better on the road this year, where they remain undefeated. Seattle knows that their season may hinge on this game, so they will play the Cards tough, but Warner should exploit a rather weak Seattle secondary. Fitzgerald was big last week picking up the slack for the inactive Boldin, with two TD receptions. Boldin has practiced all week and is set to return, which puts Breaston back to the slot and takes some opportunity away from he and Fitz.

Running Game Thoughts: Hightower and Wells were both productive splitting carries evenly in Chicago with 15 for 77 and 13 for 72 respectively. Some of their work was the result of Arizona jumping out to big lead on the Bears but Seattle and Chicago are both middling run defenses that the Cards can exploit when balanced on offense. Treat both as marginal flex plays this week except in a PPR league where Hightower is involved enough in the passing offense to warrant RB2 status.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 250 yds/3 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 85 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 75 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 50 yds
Tim Hightower: 40 yds/35 rec
Beanie Wells: 60 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Arizona 31 Seattle 24 ^ Top

Bills @ Titans (Kilroy)

Trent Edwards / Marshawn Lynch
Fred Jackson / Terrell Owens / Lee Evans (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +49.7%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +41.9%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +63.8%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -18.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards returns to the starting line-up following a three week layoff due a concussion suffered in Week 6 against the Jets. Prior to the injury, however, Edwards hadn’t been playing all that well. He faces a Titans secondary this Sunday ranked worst in the league against the pass (allowing 278.4 passing yards per game). They’ve also allowed a league leading 21 touchdown passes to be thrown against them, but it would still be a risky proposition to suggest starting Edwards against Tennessee given his most recent outings.

To further complicate matters, the status of Terrell Owens for this week’s match-up is uncertain. It was revealed Wednesday he is suffering from a strained hip which head coach Dick Jauron said made Owens very uncomfortable. While Owens has been a disappointment this season his presence on the field is still beneficial to the Bills passing game. Without him it’s just another reason to downgrade Edwards.

Running Game Thoughts: The Titans defense has softened against the run in recent weeks. After ranking among the top defensive units within that category early on, they currently place 18th against the run with an average of 111.9 rushing yards per game to be had against them. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t had any breakout performances since returning to action following a four game suspension at the start of the year, but he should stand a fair chance of totaling 75-85 yards this Sunday while punching one into the end zone.

Projections:
Trent Edwards – 190 yards passing / 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch – 65 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Fred Jackson – 30 yards rushing / 10 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Terrell Owens – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Lee Evans – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD

Vince Young / Chris Johnson / LenDale White
Nate Washington / Kenny Britt / Bo Scaife (vs. Buffalo)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -24.1%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +55.6%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -38.6%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +16.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young’s return to the starting line-up has coincided with Tennessee’s first two wins of the season. He’s performed admirably in his two starts, but hasn’t done much from a fantasy perspective. The Bills rank 10th in the league against the pass and their 15 interceptions are second most in the league. Chris Johnson should also find plenty of room to run against Buffalo’s porous run defense, which means there’ll be little reason for Vince Young to test the Bills through the air.

All things considered, expect another productive yet unspectacular outing from Young as the Titans look to control this game with their rushing attack throughout the day. Justin Gage’s absence (fractured bones in his back) is also another reason to expect the Titans to lean more heavily on their ground game than they usually do already.

Running Game Thoughts: Buffalo’s run defense is worst in the league. Opponents are averaging 173.6 rushing yards per game against them and have found the end zone via the ground 12 times. Chris Johnson meanwhile has sliced through the competition the last two weeks, rushing for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns on 49 carries (7.4 ypc). Taking these factors into account there’s all the reason in the world to expect a third consecutive big outing from Johnson. He should score at least one more touchdown and go well over the hundred yard mark. LenDale White might even get a chance to score in this one.

Projections:
Vince Young – 165 yards passing / 20 yards rushing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 140 yards rushing / 2 TDs / 15 yards receiving
LenDale White – 45 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Nate Washington – 55 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Kenny Britt – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 40 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Tennessee 30, Buffalo 17 ^ Top

Falcons @ Panthers (Kilroy)

Matt Ryan / Michael Turner
Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Tony Gonzalez (vs. Carolina)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.9%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +11.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -22.7%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -20.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Carolina’s defense has defended the pass well up to this point in the season. They currently rank 6th in the league with an average of 181.8 passing yards allowed per game. They’ve also allowed 10 touchdown passes and come away with 9 interceptions. Matt Ryan has struggled in recent weeks, throwing for more than 200 yards just once in his last 4 outings. He’s thrown 6 touchdown passes during that span, but has also been picked off 8 times.

The Panthers haven’t been so hot against the run however, and with that in mind, along with Ryan’s recent struggles, it gives good reason to expect another heavy workload from Michael Turner, who is coming off his two best games of the season.

Ryan should be able to manage the game fairly well, but it’s doubtful his totals will climb all that high. Expect him to throw for no more than 200 yards and keep your fingers crossed that he’ll deliver two touchdowns on the day if he’s your starting quarterback.

Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned above, Turner is coming off his two best outings of the year. He piled on 151 yards on 20 carries in Week 8 against the Saints, and then produced 166 more yards on 18 carries last Sunday against the Redskins. He’s also in the midst of a seven game streak in which he’s scored at least one touchdown.

With the Panthers yielding more than 120 rushing yards per game on the ground and Turner playing the best he has all season expect another strong outing from the sixth year veteran. He’ll have a great chance at a third consecutive 100 yard day and should manage to reach the end zone once again.

Projections:
Matt Ryan – 175 yards passing / 1 TD
Michael Turner – 115 yards rushing / 2 TDs
Roddy White – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Tony Gonzalez – 45 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Jake Delhomme / DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart / Steve Smith / Muhsin Muhammad (vs. Atlanta)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +10.6%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 0.0%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.0%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +44.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Atlanta may rank 27th in the league against the pass, but Carolina’s offense hasn’t been successful moving it through the air this season. Jake Delhomme has managed to put together back-to-back games without an interception for the first time this year, but he averaged just 145.5 yards passing in those two recent outings. He’s also yet to throw for more than one touchdown in any game this season.

The return of Muhsin Muhammad following a two week layoff due to a knee injury may prove beneficial, but not enough to warrant plugging Jake Delhomme into your starting line-up. Keep expectations to a minimum regarding the Panthers air attack with Steve Smith the only somewhat reliable option worth a start.

Running Game Thoughts: Like Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams is also coming off his best stretch of games during the last two weeks. He posted 158 yards on 23 carries (6.9 ypc) against the Cardinals in Week 8, and then sliced through the Saints defensive unit for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries (7.1 ypc) last Sunday. He suffered a knee injury in practice this week that forced him to the sidelines on Wednesday, but returned to action in a limited basis Thursday. That being the case, it sounds like Williams should be able to take to the field against the Falcons.

With Atlanta allowing opponents to rush for 123.5 yards per game against them, Williams should be in for another strong outing as long as the knee injury doesn’t set him back. Jonathan Stewart is also likely to get 10-15 carries as he tries to improve upon his performance from a week ago (13 carries, 24 rushing yards).

Projections:
Jake Delhomme – 185 yards passing / 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Jonathan Stewart – 55 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad – 50 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Atlanta 24, Carolina 21 ^ Top

Patriots @ Colts (Kilroy)

Tom Brady / Laurence Maroney / Kevin Faulk
Randy Moss / Wes Welker / Ben Watson (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -29.8%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -14.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -28.5%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -49.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Indianapolis has been pretty stout against the pass for the most part, but they haven’t been facing an opponent the caliber of the New England Patriots every week. New England ranks second in the league with an average of 295.0 passing yards per game and should continue finding success through the air this Sunday night despite their opponent. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are among the toughest tandems in the league to defend against and will keep the Colts secondary busy all day in what figures to be a high scoring affair.

Expect Brady to push the 300-yard mark passing for a fourth consecutive outing, and although Indianapolis has allowed just 4 touchdown passes this season, there’s a good chance the Patriots signal caller will find at least two of his targets in the end zone this weekend.

Running Game Thoughts: It may not always be pretty for the Patriots, but their running game has been fairly productive this season. Laurence Maroney has been forced to carry the majority of the load out of the backfield following injuries to Fred Taylor and Sammie Morris and has performed well in that role over the last three weeks. He has scored a touchdown in each of his last three outings and will look to make it a fourth this Sunday night against the Colts 14th ranked rushing defense.

If Sammie Morris returns to action it could cost Maroney the goal line carries, but for the most part it seems safe to expect another 15-20 carry outing from Maroney for 80 yards or so on the ground. At the moment it seems Morris is still unlikely to return this week anyhow.

Projections:
Tom Brady – 280 yards passing / 2 TDs
Laurence Maroney – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD
Kevin Faulk – 20 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Randy Moss – 115 yards receiving / 1 TD
Wes Welker – 105 yards receiving / 1 TD
Ben Watson – 25 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Austin Collie / Pierre Garcon / Dallas Clark (vs. New England)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -28.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -20.1%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -19.3%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -30.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning has thrown for more than 300-yards in seven of his eight games this season, but don’t be surprised if New England becomes just the second team to hold him under that mark. The Patriots rank fourth in the league against the pass and have held opponents to under 180 yards per game through the air. With the number of weapons at Manning’s disposal he should have no trouble surpassing the 200-yard plateau, but it’s doubtful he’ll have as easy a time moving the ball this Sunday as he’s had up to this point in the season so far.

Running Game Thoughts: For as successful as Indianapolis has been passing the ball, they continue to struggle with their attempts to move it on the ground. They rank 29th in the league with an average of 85.4 rushing yards per game. They have managed to punch it into the end zone 8 times, but it’s doubtful they’ll find success in that department this Sunday night given that New England has allowed just 2 rushing touchdowns this season.

Donald Brown has stated he will return to action this week following a two week layoff due to an injured shoulder, but it’s still yet to be determined he will definitely play. Both he and Addai could find it hard to pick up meaningful yards in this contest.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 275 yards passing / 3 TDs
Joseph Addai – 50 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Donald Brown – 30 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Reggie Wayne – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Austin Collie – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dallas Clark – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: New England 27, Indianapolis 21 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Jets (Marcoccio)

David Garrard/Maurice Jones-Drew
Mike Sims-Walker/Tory Holt/Mike Thomas/Marcedes Lewis (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -39.1%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.8%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -39.0%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -24.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard has been a very inconsistent QB so far this season. However a deeper look shows that his fantasy owners may be able to predict a good or poor performance, as Garrard’s inconsistency has stemmed from his home and road splits. He’s been remarkably better during his 4 games at home (1,204-6-3) than his 4 games on the road (663-0-2). Here’s a tip, he’s on the road this week. Garrard is a decent QB, but he appears to be more of a “stop gap” than a “franchise QB” since he took over the job from Byron Leftwich. He has a strong arm and better than average mobility and at times has been very efficient with the ball, but he hasn’t ever really been asked to carry the team. Mike Sims-Walker has managed to string together a full season of games after suffering some devastating knee injuries earlier in his career, and is starting to show the big play ability that many thought he was capable of when he came into the league. Mike Thomas out of Arizona is an interesting long term prospect, but is limited by a conservative game plan and veteran Tory Holt limiting his playing time.

Darrelle Revis should be covering Sims-Walker a majority of the time, so his owners must temper expectations. Revis has limited the likes of Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Terell Owens after all. The Jets are starting to finally get to the QB after applying a lot of pressure but few sacks earlier in the season. Garrad’s size and mobility makes him tough to take down, but expect the Jets to be in his face each time he drops back.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew was inexplicably only given 8 carries in a game where he averaged 22 yards per carry in Week 8. After HC Jack Del Rio threw his QB under the bus by stating that Garrard’s ability to audible would be limited due to him changing plays at the line of scrimmage, Jones-Drew was given 29 carries the following week. MJD is simply one of the best weapons is the game. His powerful build allows him to break tackles and push piles like he did on his 10 yard run last week and his elite speed allows him to break 80 yard runs like he did on his first carry in Week 8.

The Jets stuffed the Dolphins running game in Week 8 before their bye, after allowing the Dolphins’ Wild Cat offense to get the best of them in Week 5. The loss of NT Kris Jenkins was evident against Buffalo and Oakland in the games before that but the rotation of Sione Pouha, Howard Green and Mike Devito replacing Jenkins was adequate against Miami. Expect Rex Ryan to game plan to stop Jones-Drew this week, as I don’t think the Jets feel that David Garrard can beat them in their home stadium.

Projections:
David Garrard: 185 yards, 1 Ints. / 25 yds rushing 1 TD
Mike Sims-Walker: 45 yds receiving
Tory Holt: 30 yds receiving
Mike Thomas: 25 yds receiving / 15 yds rushing
Marcedes Lewis: 35 yds receiving
Maurice Jones-Drew: 85 yds rushing / 20 yds rec.

Mark Sanchez/ Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cothery/David Clowney/Dustin Keller (vs. Jax)

JAX FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.4%
JAX FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -4.5%
JAX FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +38.5%
JAX FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -40.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been a very up and down first half of the season for rookie QB Mark Sanchez, but he finished it “up” with his best game all season throwing for 2 TDs and also running for one against Miami. Second year TE Dustin Keller was finally a big part of the offense hauling in one of the TDs and gaining over 80 yards on the day. With Jerricho Cotchery finally recovered from his hamstring injury, the passing game should get back on track as Sanchez can spread the ball around a little instead of forcing the action to Braylon Edwards who has been spectacular at times since his acquisition from Cleveland.

Jacksonville has been very poor against the pass this season. They have allowed 242.3 yards per game and have given up 15 TDs in 8 games. They have failed to generate any kind of pass rush (8 sacks) and injuries to the secondary have left them with little depth. Expect back to back good passing days from Sanchez sandwiched around his bye week.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones has gained over 700 yards and has scored 7 TDs so far this season, after scoring 15 total TDs and leading the AFC in rushing in 2009. So much for the “RBs are finished at age 30” theory. The Jets have made a greater effort to commit to the run to protect their rookie QB after a few shaky starts by Sanchez and the results have been outstanding. Rookie Shonn Greene stepped in for the injured Leon Washington in Oakland and gained 144 yards and 2 TDs in the rout of the Raiders, but failed to build on that game when Miami came to the Meadowlands. He should pick up significant carries spelling Jones for the rest of the season however and should bounce back against a weak Jag run defense.

The Jaguars are the 21st ranked run defense (119.8 ypg) and have allowed 5 rushing TDs this season. They posses a mediocre line backing unit and have had troubles replacing DT Marcus Stroud who departed in free agency prior to last season. What was once a tough defense has gone soft.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 235 yds passing, 2 TDs / 10 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 60 yds receiving
Jerricho Cotchery: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
David Clowney: 15 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
Shonn Greene: 60 yds rushing

Prediction: Jets 24 Jaguars 10 ^ Top

Broncos @ Redskins (Marcoccio)

Kyle Orton/Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter
Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Jabar Gafney/Tony Sheffler (vs. WAS)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -29.1%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -16.2%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -16.1%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -33.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: A Kyle Orton that throws three interceptions is not a useful Kyle Orton. Obviously any QB that throws three picks during a game hurts his team, but when it’s a QB that is not challenging the opposing team downfield and cannot carry an offense on his back, it’s far worse. In his defense Orton has been very efficient with the football and his only other interception this season came on a Hail Mary pass at the end of the half when Randy Moss grabbed the throw. For some reason Josh McDaniels does not incorporate second year WR Eddie Royal, who is coming off a 90 catch season, into his offense more than a couple of journey men type WRs Jabar Gafney and Bradon Stokely. The pair seems to get as much time on the field as Royal. Curious. Brandon Marshall learned to play nice and is having a fine season. Although Orton’s lack of deep ball accuracy has not allowed him to be involved in many big plays, Marshall is a physical specimen who can get open by using his big body to shield off defenders and can power his way downfield with the ball in his hands.

Washington’s defense has not been the reason that this team has been losing, although last week against Atlanta they didn’t put forth one of their best efforts. Washington’s pass defense is currently ranked 1st in the NFL – as the unit has allowed only 159.9 ypg and 7 TDs on the season. After a slow start, the Redskins are starting to generate some pressure on opposing passers (21 sacks), and will try and get after Orton like the Steelers did. The Skins have a talented and physical secondary in LaRon Landry, Carlos Rodgers, DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot and should be able to keep the Bronco passing game in check.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Knowshon Moreno hasn’t had a major impact so far, but outside of the game last week against Pittsburgh, he’s been effective enough in his platoon role with veteran Correll Buckhalter. Moreno generally handles the tough inside running while the speedier Buckhalter works the edges of the field. Moreno is the type of back that does everything well, but doesn’t “wow” you with any part of his game. There’s nothing wrong with that of course just ask future Hall of Famer Curtis Martin.

Prior to last week, Washington was holding most opposing runners in check. Michael Turner however was able to gain 166 yards and score on runs of 30 and 58 yards. On the season the team is allowing 126.4 ypg and 5 rushing TDs. As I said above the defense has not necessarily been the problem in Washington. London Fletcher has been a part of many winning teams and will look to hand his college teammate Josh McDaniels his third consecutive loss. After suffering some humiliating defeats so far, don’t be surprised if this defense comes out to play in front of the home crowd after its bye week and helps pull this game out.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 215 yds passing 1 TD, 1 Int.
Eddie Royal: 40 yds receiving
Brandon Marshall: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jabar Gafney: 35 yds receiving
Tony Sheffler: 10 yds receiving
Knowshon Moreno: 65 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Correll Buckhalter: 55 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/Ladell Betts
Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Antwaan Randle El/Fred Davis (vs. Den)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -27.6%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -17.9%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.2%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -53.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: This Washington offense has been a mess all season due to: (1) a depleted offensive line, (2) horrific play calling, (3) the fact that the teams drafted three pass catchers in the second round of last season’s draft, and have seen minimal production from those three players: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis and (4) inconsistent QB play. It is not all Campbell’s fault but it’s typical that the QB takes the fall when an offense struggles so badly and Campbell has been already been benched for half a game and if the Skins had a better option that Todd Collins may have been pulled for good. There is no one in the passing offense that should get the start for your fantasy team at this point.

The Broncos signed the retired Ty Law last week and he was immediately handed a large role in the secondary, in fact he was often matched up with the Steelers top wide out, Hines Ward. While Ty Law was a great corner at one point, having watched a lot of him last season when he spent the second half of the year (also coming out of “retirement”) with the Jets, he does not posses enough speed to stay with most NFL WRs anymore. I would say this move speaks volumes about the Bronco secondary, but they are the 7th rankled pass defense allowing only183.3 yog and less than a TD per game. It seems that McDaniel, like Belicheck likes having a few crafty veterans around.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis suffered a concussion last week and will not play against Denver. This could actually be a boost to the Skins’ offense in that Ladell Betts is a more than capable backup RB and will come in with fresh legs against a tired Broncos defense traveling on a short week. In other words Betts is likely a great waiver wire add this week. In 2006 when Portis missed significant time Betts gained 1,154 yards on the ground with another 445 yards receiving with 5 total TDs with most of those stats coming in his 9 starts.

Denver does possess a great run defense however, allowing only 97 ypg and a mere 3 rushing TDs on the season. Safety Brian Dawkins has helped shore up what was a very poor run defense last season through his leadership and hard hitting style. It’s been one remarkable turnaround.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 180 yds passing, 1 Int. / 25 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 50 yds receiving
Devin Thomas: 25 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 20 yds receiving
Fred Davis: 25 yds receiving
Ladell Betts: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving

Prediction: Redskins 10 Broncos 7 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Dolphins (Marcoccio)

Josh Freeman/ Cadillac Williams/ Derrick Ward
Antonio Bryant/Sammie Stroughter/Kellen Winslow, Jr. (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.1%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.4%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.8%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +23.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: In his first NFL start, rookie QB Josh Freeman threw 3 TDs and led his 0-7 team to a win. Impressive. Freeman will likely be inconsistent but I have to admit he performed better in his first NFL start than I thought he would years down the road. Freeman is similar in stature and game to Daunte Culpepper and/or Ben Roethlisberger, but unfortunately for Freeman he is not breaking into the league getting to throw to future Hall of Famers Randy Moss, Chris Carter or Hines Ward. Antonio Bryant has been in and out of the line-up all season with leg injuries and he’s questionable for Week 10. Rookie Sammie Stroughter may be diminutive in size but runs good routes, is quick in small spaces and has nice hands. He pulled in a TD last week in the upset of Green Bay and should be on dynasty owner’s radars. Kellen Winslow, Jr. to his credit has played hard and kept his mouth shut all season despite once again being part of a losing team – perhaps the change of scenery has matured him.

Due to starting CB Will Allen being lost for the season, Miami started two rookie CBs last week in New England. Vonte Davis made an amazing interception grab over Randy Moss early in the game, but otherwise wore the goat horns for most of the contest. The unit allowed fellow rookie QB Mark Sanchez to throw for 265 yards and two TDs two weeks ago, so don’t totally write off Freeman if your desperate for a bye week QB.

Running Game Thoughts: Cadillac Williams was the story of the early season with a comeback few could have anticipated, but has faded over the last couple of weeks. He was held to 56 yards on 16 carries in last week’s upset. Williams injury history is well documented and perhaps the wear and tear on his surgically repaired knees is hampering him, as he doesn’t look as explosive as he did on opening day against the Cowboys.

The Dolphins are the fifth ranked run defense (94.5 ypg) and have allowed 9 rushing TDs this season. LB Channing Crowder has missed the last two games and his return would give a nice boost to a team that’s playoff aspirations are slipping away fast. Expect the Phins to move free safeties Chris Clemmons and Gibril Wilson up into the box against the Bucs in order to limit the running game – and to also help negate Freeman’s scrambling ability – and thus make the rookie prove last week was for real.

Projections:
Josh Freeman: 195 yds passing 1 TD, 1 Int. / 30 yds rushing
Antonio Bryant: 35 yds receiving
Sammie Stroughter: 45 yds receiving
Kellen Winslow, Jr.: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Cadillac Williams: 45 yards rushing
Derrick Ward: 25 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving

Chad Henne/Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams
Ted Ginn Jr./Brian Hartline/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano (vs. TB)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +23.8%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +17.4%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +35.2%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -0.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: After looking like an All-Pro in his first NFL start, Chad Henne has looked like a “rookie” QB in his last three starts. He hasn’t been terrible, but has looked confused at times and isn’t doing much to help his team win. Tedd Ginn is a kick returner, simple as that. He may be a decent 4th WR when the team needs to move the ball downfield quickly, but he doesn’t catch the ball consistently or run good enough routes to be counted on as a go to WR. Luckily for the Dolphins they have two really good RBs that help them move the ball. They will need to add a playmaker at WR this offseason if they want to aid in Henne’s development, because right now he’s throwing to a kick returner and a bunch of adequate possession WRs.

Ronde Barber probably wishes he went the route of his twin brother Tiki – minus the part of going from rising media star to sideline reporter in one year of course. The once proud Tampa Bay pass defense which famously laid the groundwork for the Cover 2 defense is now a joke. They rank behind every team in the league in passing TDs allowed (18), outside of Tennessee (21) and Detroit (19).

Running Game Thoughts: I guess it’s safe to say that the Wild Cat offense is not a fad, at least in Miami where it’s become a staple of the offense. The ‘Phins have been more than happy to try and control the clock with Chad Pennington or Chad Henne either on the sideline or split out wide while Ronnie Brown takes the direct snap. Ricky Williams has looked like his old self, and when I say “old self” I mean “young self”. It’s amazing that he can still run with the power and speed at an age where most running backs are put out to pasture. Maybe hemp is all it’s been cracked up to be by the legalization movement.

The Buccaneers rank 30th in run defense (163.4 ypg and 9 TDs allowed), so unbelievably they are even worse stopping the run than stopping the pass. It must be confusing to offensive coordinators as they try to decide if they are better off trying to score quickly through the air or if they are better off running hard through the Bucs swiss cheese defense. Oh the dilemma.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 215 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 35 yds receiving
Brian Hartline: 70 yds receiving, TD
Davone Bess: 25 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 20 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 110 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving

Prediction: Dolphins 24 Buccaneers 14 ^ Top

Bengals @ Steelers (Mack)

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Andre Caldwell / Laveranues Coles / Daniel Coats (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -9.9%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -40.7%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.7%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer came back to earth last week after a 5 TD performance against a bewildered Chicago defense in week 8. Baltimore’s defense proved a bit stingier in week 9, and Palmer threw for 224 yards and only 1 TD. The 2009 version of Palmer is somewhere in the middle of those two performances, with the ladder being the more realistic probability. Palmer has been a steady fantasy QB this year. He has only 3 INTs in his last 6 games, so he’s not going to hurt you if your league penalizes for turnovers. In the first meeting between these two teams, Palmer had an average game, throwing for only 183 yards, 1 TD and no INTs.

I would expect similar numbers this week from Palmer. Even though Pittsburgh is uncharacteristically a middle-of-the-road defense against the pass (they’re ranked 14th in the league), the Steelers can still muster a solid performance against a tough divisional foe at home. This will be a low-scoring game with minimal fantasy production coming from the Bengals through the air, meaning the normally reliable Chad Ochocinco could be held in check. Andre Caldwell and Laveranues Coles are not good options this week, and TE Daniel Coats won’t remind anyone of Ben Coates this week. Keep your expectations in check.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson is having his best NFL season by far this year. His 837 yards are second in the league, but his 198 carries are 33 more than any other RB in the league. Cincy relies on Benson heavily, and in the last two games they’ve so to the tune of 71 total carries. Whether all these carries in such a short period of time will have any lingering effect remains to be seen. But from a purely fantasy standpoint, that’s the kind of commitment to the run Benson’s owners want to see.

Benson will have the pleasure of going against the league’s #1 ranked run defense. What’s more, Pittsburgh has only surrendered 2 rushing TDs all year, but one of those was by Benson in week 3. But that was at home; this game is in Pittsburgh and is for first place in the AFC North. Benson didn’t have many yards in that first game, but you better believe the Steelers will make a concerted effort to corral the rejuvenated RB and keep him in check. Benson probably won’t get the 30-plus carries he’s gotten in the last two games; he may not even score in this contest. But he’s proven to be too valuable a fantasy commodity to do anything other than start him—regardless of the opponent.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 70 yards
Chad Ochocinco – 75 yards / 1 TD
Andre Caldwell – 50 yards
Laveranues Coles – 35 yards
Daniel Coats – 25 yards

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Mike Wallace / Heath Miller (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +9.2%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -13.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.5%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +3.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple TDs in 4 of the last 5 games, and there’s no reason to believe that this week he can make it 5 out of 6. The Bengals have improved immensely on defense this year, but they remain somewhat vulnerable through the air, as their 25th ranked pass defense would prove. They’re an opportunistic bunch with 16 INTs on the year, but Big Ben has taken good care of the ball. He has only 3 INTs in the last 5 games. Roethlisberger is one of the most-sacked QBs in the league, so the play of Pittsburgh’s O-line will be crucial to whatever success the Steelers have through the air.

I think it’s time I put on hold the coronation of Santonio Holmes as Pittsburgh’s #1 WR. I thought this would be the year that he overtook Hines Ward in that role, and after the first game of the season, that looked like a sure bet. Well, that was the only game this year in which he’s scored; he’s now nothing more than an inconsistent, bottom-tier #2 fantasy WR who you should start at your own risk. Hines Ward is the only every-week starting WR on this team, along with TE Heath Miller. Start both this week with great confidence. Mike Wallace is a not-so-solid start, even though he’s scored in each of the last two games.

Running Game Thoughts: Quick, who has the league’s 2nd-ranked run defense? Do you know? If you don’t know, it’s the Cincinnati Bengals. Their front seven is playing lights-out and has given up only 4 rushing TDs (side note: if Cincy’s defense is available in you league, go pick them up fast. They play Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit in the next 3 weeks). Rashard Mendenhall will have a tough go of it this week. Willie Parker has completely fallen off the fantasy map and is no longer a starting option. In fact, his days in Pittsburgh could be numbered, as the team probably won’t bring him back next year.

Mendenhall had his second good game last week against a tough Denver squad. He didn’t find the end zone, but his 155 yards on the road solidified the trust that head coach Mike Tomlin has put in him. The challenge with starting Mendenhall is hoping he doesn’t revert back to the subpar performances that characterized the games leading up to last week. If you have a better, more consistent option than Mendenhall, I suggest you go with him. If not, hope that he cracks a long run or two to justify his starting spot against a top-notch opponent.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 235 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Rashard Mendenhall – 75 yards
Hines Ward – 95 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 45 yards
Mike Wallace – 30 yards
Heath Miller – 50 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Cincinnati 13 ^ Top

Lions @ Vikings (Mack)

Matt Stafford / Kevin Smith
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Brandon Pettigrew (vs. Minnesota)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +11.7%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -27.5%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.3%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +64.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Just when we thought the light bulb got a bit brighter for rookie Matt Stafford, it seems someone flipped the switch. Stafford threw several great passes during the first half of last week’s game at Seattle. But soon thereafter, Seattle’s defense turned up the heat and confused the youngster, forcing him into 5 INTs. He looked lost and confused, but perhaps the greatest pain inflicted during the game was that of fantasy owners who count on Calvin Johnson to be more than the average performer he’s been so far in 2009. Injuries and rookie signal-caller aside, Johnson has looked nothing like the #1 fantasy WR many thought he’d be this year. Sure teams are doubling him and making it tough for him to get space, but teams also double Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Brandon Marshall, and a host of others, yet they seem to make plays.

Before Stafford can get it to Johnson and his other “weapons,” the Lions must do everything to ensure the Vikings don’t put consistent pressure on the rookie. Minnesota’s 30 sacks are 3 more than any other team, and when they’re not sacking the QB, they’re putting all kinds of pressure on him. If that happens this week, expect Stafford to pick up where he left off against the Seahawks. Minnesota only has 6 INTs on the year, but they could get half that amount in this game if Jared Allen and the gang slice through Detroit’s O-line like they’re capable of.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Lion’s passing game is to mature down the road the way in which they hope, they’re going to have to upgrade the RB position. Kevin Smith is really nothing special both from an NFL and fantasy perspective. And what’s worse is he’s starting to lose carries to Maurice Morris and others on the roster—as if his fantasy stock needed any more reason to plummet. Whether or not the back-up RBs are getting more action now because Smith is battling a few minor injuries is debatable, but the fact remains Smith is becoming more and more a bench-warmer on many fantasy rosters, including yours truly.

With all that being said, Smith should remain on your bench this week even IF he was healthy and getting all the carries. This game will get out of hand quickly and render the Lions’ running game useless; plus the Vikings’ 6th-ranked run defense will see to it that Detroit’s running game stays in neutral. Bench Smith and anything resembling a Detroit RB this week.

Projections:
Matt Stafford – 190 yards / 1 TD / 3 INTs
Kevin Smith – 45 yards rushing / 25 yards rec.
Calvin Johnson – 70 yards / 1 TD
Bryant Johnson – 40 yards
Brandon Pettigrew – 45 yards

Brett Favre / Adrian Peterson
Sidney Rice / Percy Harvin / Bernard Berrian / Visanthe Shiancoe (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +27.8%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +20.1%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +17.2%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +44.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre is red hot right now, throwing for 7 TDs and 1 INT in the last 3 games, but it’s a tough decision to start him this week. As I stated above, this game will get ugly rather early; the only hope for those who start him would be for him to get his production early. Otherwise, he could be sporting a visor and sipping on Gatorade on the sideline by late in the 3rd quarter, watching his back-up play mop-up time.

His 3 INTs through 8 games are the fewest than at any other time in his career. More than that, it’s the fewest number of INTs he’s had in any 8-game stretch of his career. Any other game, I’d strongly recommend starting him. But let’s face it, they’re playing the Lions at home. How long will the game remain competitive? Sidney Rice may be the best fantasy option on the team not named Adrian Peterson. There may not be enough throws to satisfy Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe owners. If Favre throws more than 20-22 times, I’d be surprised.

Running Game Thoughts: Something tells me that this is the week that Adrian Peterson owners have been waiting for all season. Even though Peterson has the most rushing TDs (9) through 8 games in his career, he has the fewest amount of yards through 8 games in his career. With a bye week to prepare for a grossly inferior opponent, I’m sure the coaching staff made a concerted effort to game plan for Peterson to be the centerpiece of run-based offensive attack. Brett Favre IS 40 years old and they most begin conserving his health; what better way to do that than by focusing on the running game in some games moving forward? Peterson will go off this week. Write it down.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 180 yards / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson – 190 yards / 3 TDs
Sidney Rice – 75 yards / 1 TD
Percy Harvin – 40 yards
Bernard Berrian – 20 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 35 yards

Prediction: Minnesota 34, Detroit 13 ^ Top

Cowboys @ Packers (Mack)

Tony Romo / Marion Barber
Miles Austin / Roy Williams / Jason Witten (vs. Green Bay)

GB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.6%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -24.8%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.6%
GB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +12.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: After the first four games of the season in which Tony Romo threw 4 TDs and 4 INTs, he’s cleaned up his act big time and has become the stellar performer many drafted him thinking he’d be. The last four games, Romo has thrown 9 TDs against only 1 INT, and he’s turning it around at the right time for fantasy owners. The Packers have the 8th ranked pass defense, but they’ve surrendered 16 TD passes—5th worst in the NFL. So Romo should end up with multiple TD passes for the 4th time in five games.

While Roy Williams is busy claiming to the media that he remains the team’s #1 WR despite stats to the contrary, Miles Austin has become the playmaker the team has lacked since Terrell Owens donned the starred helmet. Austin has scored in four straight games and has become a solid complement to TE Jason Witten, who despite Austin’s ascension is still Romo’s go-to receiver in clutch situations. Austin and Witten are must-starts, but Williams’ inconsistency should keep him on your bench until further notice—especially against a defense with tough, in-your-face CBs.

Running Game Thoughts: Last year Marion Barber had eight games with 18 carries or more; so far this year, only one. I’m sure his quad injury from week 2 has a lot to do with it, and for that reason it’s tough to count on Barber for any kind of production. He’s averaged more than 4 yards per carry in a game once so far since his injury and has only 2 TDs in those 5 games. So whether it’s the injury, the offensive philosophy or the desire on the part of the coaching staff to get Felix Jones and Tashard Choice more carries, the bottom line is Barber is not the #1 fantasy RB he was at this time in 2008.

Whoever totes the rock for the ‘Boys will have to go up against the 9th ranked run defense and a unit that’s given up only 3 rushing TDs—4th best in the league. Barber is always a threat at the goal line, but relying on those kinds of opportunities from a team that’s had few of them this year is a tough way to make a living in fantasy football. Barber is a low-end #2 fantasy RB this week. Start him with caution.

Projections:
Tony Romo – 255 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Marion Barber – 65 yards
Miles Austin – 85 yards / 1 TD
Roy Williams – 60 yards
Jason Witten – 70 yards / 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers / Ryan Grant
Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / James Jones / Donald Lee (vs. Dallas)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.5%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.8%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +9.2%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -5.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week was only the third time in his career that Aaron Rodgers threw more than 1 INT in a game. His last multiple interception game came in week 11 last year against New Orleans. Translation: Rodgers is a fantasy stud who rarely hurts his owners with dud games that ruin the chances of fantasy owners winning games. Rodgers’ only problem—and it’s not really his—is his inability to remain upright. Green Bay’s O-line is as porous as they come and Rodgers has been sacked 37 times already this year; that’s 10 more than the next closest QB. Expect Dallas to bring the heat.

Rodgers has thrown multiple TDs in six straight games and has a good shot at making it seven. Donald Driver continues to amaze but Greg Jennings’ average play continues to surprise. He has only one TD since week 1 and who can forget his goose egg stat line from week 2? Start him with a high dose of skepticism. Jermichael Finley may once again miss this game due to injury, meaning both James Jones and Donald Lee will see an increase in their role. Jones is a borderline starter, but Lee is a solid starter even though he’s yet to score. That streak is bound to be broken soon; why not this week?

Running Game Thoughts: I’m trying to remain unbiased toward Ryan Grant. I really am. But I’ve never been a fan of his and he’s done little this year to make me change my opinion of him. However, he already has four games in which he has more than 20 carries in a game; he had six all of last year. That tells me that Green Bay thinks a lot more of Grant than yours truly. That also tells me that with all the extra opportunities comes a greater chance of putting up solid numbers, which Grant has done recently—his 10 carry, 30 yard game in week 7 against Minnesota notwithstanding.

Similar to the Packers’ defense, Dallas has only given up 3 rushing TDs, so the chance of Grant scoring for the third time in four games is slim. It’s crucial for Green Bay to establish some threat in the running game, if for no other reason than to keep the hard-charging Cowboy defenders off of Rodgers. Consequently, Grant could see another 20-plus carry game. Whether he translates those touches into quality fantasy production is the $1 million question.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 245 yards / 2 TDs
Ryan Grant – 70 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 115 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 65 yards
James Jones – 30 yards / 1 TD
Donald Lee – 20 yards

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Dallas 20 ^ Top

Ravens @ Browns (Mack)

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap (vs. Cleveland)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.9%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +41.2%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.6%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +1.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco’s play has leveled off somewhat. After tossing 8 TDs through the first four games, he only threw 4 TDs in the next four. That’s certainly not the kind of production you want to see heading into the most crucial part of the fantasy football season. But whatever has ailed Flacco should be cured against the lowly Cleveland Browns. Not only do the Browns have the worst defense statistically, but they’ve only intercepted opposing QBs four times. Flacco should be able to survey the field and pick apart Cleveland’s secondary.

Derrick Mason has been serviceable as a low-end #2/high-end #3 fantasy WR. He’s scored in four of the last six games and he remains Baltimore’s most potent and consistent outside threat despite his advancing age. Mark Clayton has been hit or miss this season. Starting him should not be an option at this point. He’s better off on your bench. Todd Heap hasn’t scored since week 2 but he’s a good bet to break that streak this week.

Running Game Thoughts: If he’s not careful, Ray Rice may turn himself into a 2010 top-10 RB before this season is all said and done. This guy has taken the reigns of the Ravens’ running game and rendered all other RBs on the squad useless. Remember Willis MaGahee? Le’Ron McClain? I know, it’s been awhile since those names were relevant, and Rice is the main reason why. Not only is he the primary ball carrier, but his dual-threat skill set has allowed him to lead the team in receptions with 46. What’s more, that’s 13 more than anyone else on the team. That’s nothing but fantasy gold. Cleveland has the league’s 31st-ranked run defense and they have given up the 4th most rushing TDs with 12. Bottom line: expect Ray Rice to do work this week and be a workhorse for your team.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 235 yards / 2 TDs
Ray Rice – 95 yards rushing / 1 TD / 45 yards rec.
Derrick Mason – 80 yards / 1 TD
Mark Clayton – 40 yards
Todd Heap – 55 yards / 1 TD

Brady Quinn / Jamal Lewis
Mohamed Massaquoi / Chansi Stuckey / Josh Cribbs / Steve Heiden (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.3%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.3%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +4.0%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -21.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: There are few things funnier than when a not-so-attractive woman walks into a bar thinking she’s the prettiest thing there. However, there’s NOTHING funnier than when a pompous, arrogant head football coach thinks he’s so good that he could get rid of the top two receiving threats from the previous year and not miss a beat. Such is Eric Mangini, who exiled Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, leaving him with a collection of inexperienced WRs and in-over-their-head QBs to throw them the rock. It’s a classic recipe for disaster, and frankly it couldn’t have happened to a better coach.

As if that wasn’t enough, he’s now changed his starting QB for the second time. Brady Quinn gets the nod this week, who we’re all certain can’t be any worse (or any better, for that matter) than Derek Anderson. However you slice it, the Browns are setting back NFL offensive football 50 years with their inept play. I needn’t suggest you sit your Browns players; they barely deserve a spot on your roster.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamal Lewis recently indicated that this will be his last season in the NFL. He’s certainly played as if this is his swan song. He’s rushed for only 137 yards TOTAL in the last three games and has looked like he’s sporting cement cleats in the process. Obviously, he’s a shell of his former 2003 MVP self and should be nowhere near your starting line-up. His relevance from a fantasy perspective lies in the fact that he’s a starting RB—nothing more. His presence on your roster should be for depth purposes only. Only in the deepest of leagues should he even be playfully considered anything more than bench-warmer fodder. Baltimore’s 7th ranked run defense will see to it that Lewis and the other RBs remain irrelevant fantasy pawns in week 10.

Projections:
Brady Quinn – 145 yards / 1 TD / 3 INTs
Jamal Lewis – 60 yards
Mohamed Massaquoi – 55 yards
Josh Cribbs – 40 yards / 1 TD
Chansi Stuckey – 20 yards
Steve Heiden – 25 yards

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 10 ^ Top