Buccaneers @ Chiefs (Eakin)
Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Antonio Bryant/Alex Smith
Warrick Dunn/Ernest Graham (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Raiders
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Raiders
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 28.4/28.0/12.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 95.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Before you Bench studs like Drew Brees and Brandon Marshall for any player on the Tampa roster just because they are playing the doormat of the West, keep in mind that the Chiefs do have the 5th best defense in QB fantasy points allowed. QB Jeff Garcia is currently out of Jon Gruden's doghouse for the time being. The Buc passing game should receive a boost now that the ageless Joey Galloway has returned to the line-up. Combine him with the comeback player of the year candidate, Antonio Bryant, and they are perhaps in the best offensive position they have been during Coach Gruden’s reign.

The Chiefs jump from 11th to 5th in QB points allowed after holding down Brett Favre last week. Rookie CB Brandon Flowers took a 91-yard INT to the house for the second time this year. The Chiefs picked off Favre a total of three times while giving up two TD passes. The Chiefs only gave up one long play and it was to Leon Washington out of the backfield for 60 yards. They do a good job of stifling TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: Have you ever won an award or received a prize? You know that feeling you get walking up to receive it? Well, that’s how owners of RBs facing the Chiefs D should feel. Warrick Dunn and Ernest Graham will be blushing on the plane ride out west. KC has taken the most fantasy points allowed vs. RBs title from Denver. They give up an over five yards per carry. If LenDale White can go 80 yards on you then Warrick Dunn could at age 50. Play Graham as a starter and Dunn as a flex.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 195 yds passing/1 TD
Joey Galloway: 75 yds receiving /1TD
Antonio Bryant: 60 yds receiving
Alex Smith: 35 yds receiving
Warrick Dunn: 60 yds rushing/35 receiving
Ernest Graham: 115 yds rushing/15 yds receiving/2 TD

Tyler Thigpen/DeWayne Bowe/Devard Darling/Tony Gonzalez/Mark Bradley
Kolby Smith/Jamaal Charles (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Ravens
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Ravens
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12,0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 30.3/36.2/13.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 42.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Tyler Thigpen started to show a little something last week in a duel with Brett Favre and the Jets. Helping him out was Chicago Bear castoff, Mark Bradley, who had five catches for 42 yards and a score. If he can stay healthy, we might see some semblance of a passing offense for the Chiefs in November. They may now have two deep threats with Bowe and Bradley, which should help Tony Gonzalez get open down the seam.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, because Monte Kiffin and the Tampa Bay defense will test Thigpen and I don’t think he’s going to bust the curve. The Bucs secondary has some good tacklers – even if they lose Jermaine Phillips at the safety spot – but Dwayne Bowe could even be a challenge for them in the open field. Look for reserve tight end, Brad Cottam to continue logging more time, now that Tony Gonzalez has made it clear he wants to play for a contender. He may be a Chief this year, but the coaching staff knows he’s unlikely to be back in 2009.

Running Game Thoughts: The best chance the Chiefs have to open up the passing game is for Kolby Smith or Jamaal Charles to be productive. Charles looks like the better natural runner of the two, but his carries were limited last week. With Tampa Bay having the tendency keep contests close, there’s a chance the Chiefs running game won’t be irrelevant in the third quarter. The Bucs should have an easy time shutting down the Chiefs attack and if the offensive gives them a lead, especially with Galloway back, they will let Gaines Adams loose on Thigpen.

Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 190 yds passing/1 TD/2 INT
DeWayne Bowe: 65 yds/1 TD
Mark Bradley 40 yds
Devard Darling: 15 yds
Tony Gonzalez: 45 yds
Jamaal Charles: 45 yds rushing/10 yds receiving
Brad Cottam: 15 yds receiving

Cardinals @ Rams (Eakin)
Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Tim Hightower/Edgerrin James (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 30.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 47.6/43.0/25.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 74.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Since CB Fakhir Brown has returned to the Rams defensive backfield, St. Louis has improved their defensive numbers across the board. However, this week they run into one of the hottest passing attacks in the league with Arizona. They are stronger than before because now Steve Breaston has more experience after filling in nicely for Boldin who was getting his skull glued back into place. The Cardinals now have three wideouts that threaten a 100 yards and pay dirt every time out. For St. Louis, the Rams rookie Chris Long keeps getting better registering two sacks against the Patriots in a hard fought loss. In IDP, keep an eye on safety O.J. Atogwe. He gets his share of tackles and he’s always picking up INTs.

Running Game Thoughts: Facing the Rams is a good match-up for Arizona but who’s there to profit? Edgerrin James is sliding towards irrelevancy and Tim Hightower does just enough to mess up Edgerrin’s stat line, but not enough to be a fantasy starter. Sometimes I feel like NFL coaches aren’t even the least bit concerned about fantasy ball. Combined they will get around 100 yards and a TD or two. History suggests 65/35 in yards to Edge and a TD for Hightower to keep the balance and teach the youngsters the value of sharing.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 330 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 110 rec/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 90 rec/2 TD
Steve Breaston: 70 rec
Edgerrin James: 80 rush/1 TD/10 rec/1 TD
Tim Hightower: 45 yards/25 rec/1 TD

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Donnie Avery/Keenan Burton
Steven Jackson (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Dolphins
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 48.3/55.4/10.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 46.3

Passing Game Thoughts: I have to do some research but I don’t see any passing stats from Jim Haslett, yet he has kick-started the Ram pass attack. Isn’t he a defensive guy? The Rams hung tough and probably should have won last week against the Patriots. The emergence of Donnie Avery is now entering week three so if there are leagues where he is still available the Rams have some weak opponents coming up and he has been out-shining Torry Holt for several weeks. Dear Mr. Holt, if you find yourself struggling to come to grips with being an aging 2nd option to a shiny new stud, give a shout to Isaac Bruce, you’re buddy in San Fran, I bet he can walk you through it. I expect this game to turn in to a shoot-out since the Rams will have to keep up with the Warner’s explosive offense. I like Avery’s chances to have another solid game as well as Bulger and Holt. The Cards are the second worst pass defense in the league so it’s perfect timing to continue the Ram fantasy resurgence

Running Game Thoughts: I ranted a few weeks ago that there are guys having bad years where you just know they aren’t going to turn it around and others you know it’s about to change. Jackson was my leading candidate for getting back on track and he has responded in kind against Dallas but pulled a widget in his leg. He is feeling better this week and should get the start but keep checking the board Sunday to be sure. If he plays he should have a workman like day against the 14th ranked Cardinal D in RB fantasy points allowed. Arizona LB Karlos Dansby continues to be their most active defender. The former Auburn Tiger is no Andray Bruce or Tracy Rocker if you get my drift.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 230 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Torry Holt: 70 rec/1 TD
Donnie Avery: 105 rec/1 TD
Keenan Burton: 30 rec
Steven Jackson: 90 yards/35 receiving/1 TD

Dolphins @ Broncos (Eakin)
Chad Pennington/Greg Camarillo/Ted Ginn Jr./Anthony Fasano
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Lions
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Lions
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 25.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 39.9/45.1/4.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 29.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Ted Ginn Jr. was the most productive WR in the land last Sunday against the Bills catching 7 passes for 175 yards. He still has not caught a TD pass this year, but his yardage has been steadily increasing. Chad Pennington has been a top 5 QB the last few weeks and the Dolphins have a string of favorable opponents including this game. The Dolphins are a run first team so that is what their opponents have been focusing on. They probably spend all week working on defending the Wild Hog (shouldn’t we name it the Humid Dolphin or something Miami-like?) and both Pennington and Ginn are the beneficiaries. Denver has not been good against the pass for several reasons. They don’t have much of a pass rush, safety Marquand Manuel has given up some big plays, and their offensive isn’t a possession offense that eats clock so their defense faces more plays per game. Last week both Champ Bailey and Dre Bly were banged up. The result was former really good high school QB Matt Cassel of New England torching them for three TDs. Now star CB Champ Bailey is out 4-6 weeks with a groin tear so this is a great match-up for Miami fans.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver is not just biased towards the forward pass. They are equally bad if not worse at stopping the run. Only the Chiefs give up more RB fantasy points per game. No one has played consistently well other than D.J Williams and Nate Webster. I don’t anticipate the Dolphins helping out their rating much. The two-headed monster of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams is a powerful tandem that can grind out lots of yards against a small Denver front seven. The addition of top pick Jake long has helped Miami’s offensive line transform in to solid unit this year. Not too many Parcells’ ran teams haven’t and you know his staff has a run first mentality.

Projections:
Chad Pennington: 270 pass/2 TD
Greg Camarillo: 60 rec
Ted Ginn Jr.:115 rec/1 TD
Anthony Fasano: 55 rec/1 TD
Ricky Williams: 40 yards/1 TD
Ronnie Brown: 70 rush/30 receiving/1 TD

Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Daniel Graham
Michael Pittman (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Bears
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Bears
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 59.3/68.1/12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 61.0

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jay Cutler for presidential campaign bus has pulled over to let some passengers off. In English, that means after a great start their pass production has cooled off lately. Cutler only managed 168 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs against a very average pass defense of the Patriots. Coming off a bye last week they should be able to get things back on track against another below average pass defense of Miami. The key here lies in Denver’s ability to break two trends, the Dolphins secondary playing above their rating and the Denver offense playing below theirs. The Miami CBs, Jason and Will Allen (not brother’s and don’t sell coffee), will be tested with QB Jay Cutler’s strong arm down field by both Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Last week against the Bills they were successful minus one long play to Lee Evans. Denver will be a tougher match-up so the Dolphin’s must continue to get pressure on the QB and that is most likely coming in the form of LB Joey Porter who is quietly on pace to break the all-time single season sack record. The Denver offensive line protection was one of the best in the league until a meltdown against the Pat’s on Monday night where they gave up more sacks in one game than they had the entire season leading up to it.

Running Game Thoughts: The long-awaited arrival of rookie RB Ryan Torain is finally at hand. Hopefully it goes better than Portland’s debut of Greg Oden last night (if I wrote this by hand you’d see ink blotters on the page here). Actually, I only wept for like barely an hour. Anyways, where was I…ah yes, Torain. He is big, fast, and versatile according to scouts who claim to have seen the kid play at ASU. Waldman said he’s big and instinctive, but not very fast. We’ll find out if he’ll be appearing just in time to ruin any hopes of Michael Pittman and Denver having a single, reliable fantasy running back. Coach Shanahan can stop sweating out that potential disaster? Now he can rotate both backs and they will be perfectly average flex options, but predicting which one to play each week will be an effort in futility. If you’re trying to scratch out one more productive week from Pittman hoping Torain won’t play much then you should know that Miami has the 9th ranked defense in RB fantasy points allowed.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 265 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 100 rec/2 TD
Eddie Royal: 70 rec
Daniel Graham: 30 rec
Michael Pittman: 75 rush/20 receiving/1 TD
Ryan Torain: 40 rush

Falcons @ Raiders (Eakin)
Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/Brian Finneran
Jerious Norwood/Michael Turner (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Saints
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 61.8/42.6/23.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 86.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Roddy White once again came through last week catching two TDs with 113 yards. He is now a top five WR and automatic start no matter what the match-up. Over his last five games he’s averaging over six catches for 113 yards and a TD per game. He does well whether they are ahead or behind regardless of the opponent because of his high amount of targets. Matt Ryan is having one of the better rookie seasons ever for a QB. He threw for 272 yards against the Eagles who not only have a top-ten pass defense, but also are one of the best blitzing teams in the NFL. The Eagles complex schemes can rattle even the savviest veteran QBs. Other than White the Falcons spread the ball out so no other receivers are extremely valuable. RB Jerious Norwood does a good job running routes out of the backfield and can hit some big plays as well. The Raiders on the other hand do not do a good job of pressuring the passer and have a tendency to give up big plays because of their aggressive bump and run coverages. Oakland has played better the last two weeks under their new coaching staff, but with favorable match-ups. An interesting note about Oakland’s pass defense is that while they are 22nd in points allowed by QBs they are 8th in points allowed versus opposing WRs. The disparity is due to them doing a poor job of covering TEs and RBs but do a pretty good job on WRs. Their two CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall are playing well but their LBs and Safeties are not holding up their end of the bargain. Since the Falcons really don’t have a dominant TE to exploit this weakness it may be Norwood, one of the best receiving RBs in the league that has a big day.

Running Game Thoughts: We know that Michael Turner is a workhorse that will get plenty of carries. We also know that he is explosive against weak run defenses but has been held in check several times by the better ones. If the trends continue than the stage is set for Turner to have another of his huge days. The Raiders are the 10th worst defense in RB points allowed due in large part to a pedestrian defensive line that has been pretty banged up. Being on the road the Falcons will force the issue trying to establish their ground game and should be fresh coming of a bye week. Turners will be a top tier starter and Norwood is a solid flex candidate this week as well.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 275 yds passing/2 TD/1 INT
Roddy White: 110 yds receiving /1TD
Michael Jenkins: 50 yds receiving
Brian Finneran: 35 yds receiving
Jerious Norwood: 30 yds rushing/60 yds receiving/1 TD
Michael Turner: 155 yds/1 TD

JaMarcus Russell/Chaz Schilens/Ronald Curry/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Zach Miller
Justin Fargas/Darren McFadden (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Bengals
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Cardinals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 39.5/34.6/4.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 53.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Javon Walker had been emerging as QB JaMarcus Russell’s favorite target over the last few weeks until he crawled back in his cave for the Raven game The Raiders as a team have been a more productive passing team in the two games Tom Cable has been the HC. The guy to watch is rookie Chaz Schilens, who caught a 60-yard reception last week and will be replacing Johnnie Lee Higgins as the starter for a second straight week. He’s a good possession player with nice height and apparently better than advertised speed. Zach Miller has been the leading target over the entire season and is still producing consistently compared to the rest of the receiving core.He is putting up serviceable low end TE1 numbers. Give some credit Russell for stepping up in the clutch to out the Raiders in position to win against the Jets but he was once again shut down by the strong Raven D. I’m not sold on him yet but I’m more of a believer than I was. When I see an overweight pro athlete I have to question his desire and work ethic until proven otherwise. He has a chance to have a productive day since Atlanta is the 8th poorest defense in fantasy QB points allowed.

Running Game Thoughts: The Oakland rush attack has dropped off as of late. Justin Fargas is back and has been ok, but we learned today that Darren McFadden has now suffered another toe injury, this time on his good foot. He had not practiced this week and I am going to assume he doesn’t play at this point or is not effective if he does. The Raiders lose some big play capability and a weapon in the pass attack. Michael Bush and Fargas are both grinders that can pound out yards they just aren’t an explosive as McFadden. Atlanta is ranked 24th in fantasy RB points allowed so this may be a game where both teams do real well on the ground. In fact, both teams rush offense is probably their best run defense by running time off the clock.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 160 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT
Javon Walker: 60 yds
Chaz Schilens: 40 yds
Johnnie Lee Higgins: 10 yds
Zach Miller: 45 yds/1 TD
Justin Fargas: 100 yds/1 TD
Michael Bush: 35 yds rushing/10 yds receiving/1 TD

Eagles @ Seahawks (Eakin)
Donovan McNabb/DeSean Jackson/Kevin Curtis/L.J. Smith
Brian Westbrook (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: 49ers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: 49ers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.8/19.1/10.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 53.9

Passing Game Thoughts: I’ve mentioned before that covering the AFC and NFC West games is really making me sound negative. I’m already cynical by nature and aware of my negativity but this game looks like another blowout if there ever was one. McNabb is having a good season and now has added Kevin Curtis to the mix. Curtis had a big game against Seattle last year. He and DeSean Jackson should play well together, not letting teams focus too much on the other. L.J. Smith suffered a concussion last week and is questionable for this week’s game. The only effect that will have is in the redzone where the Eagles have struggled this year. They have small skill position players at WR and RB so they are just not built extremely well for power running and jump ball fades that most teams rely on in close. Though I think this deficiency will come to haunt them come playoff time it is not a big factor this week. Seattle has struggled on offense and it has leaked over to the defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook set his personal best mark in rush yards last week with a beat up rib. All signs point to his dominance continuing facing a Seattle defense that is below average ranking 18th in fantasy points allowed. It appears starting MLB Lofa Tatupu may not play due to a pulled groin. Former Longhorn All-American D.D. Lewis will step fill in and has played well in his place through the year. Rookie defensive end Lawrence Jackson will be a good player and had a good start, but seems to have hit the rookie wall early. He had some critical penalties and missed assignments in last week’s loss. Seattle is also suffering the repercussions of DT Marcus Tubbs not living up their hopes. They are still struggling at defensive tackle. Last week I touched upon Seattle’s need to find a CB to play opposite Marcus Trufant and Josh Wilson must have read it because he returned a pick for six. If he starts playing well then Seattle will have found a solution to one of their most glaring defensive holes.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 265 yds passing/3 TD
Kevin Curtis: 75 yds receiving /1TD
DeSean Jackson: 60 yds receiving/1 TD
L.J. Smith: 35 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 90 yds rushing/55 receiving/1 TD

Seneca Wallace/Bobby Engram/Koren Robinson/John Carlson
Julius James/Maurice Morris (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: 49ers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 39.5/19.1/9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 33.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Seneca Wallace had an Iowa State flashback last week against the 49ers. He was able to generate 222 yards through the air and 2 Tds. I’ll admit I was pretty excited when I snagged Bobby Engram off waivers a few weeks ago but while a I was busy patting myself on the back it seem QB Matt Hasselbeck was a little overzealous patting his own. Now he’s out for while getting his back fixed and I have been in a steady depression ever since. Wallace did show some signs of life last week so I immediately cancelled one of my Monday counseling sessions, not all of them mind you, baby steps people, baby steps. I’ll touch upon Julius Jones as a rusher in a bit but he can be a source of production as a receiver out of the backfield. On that note I just received word that Leonard Weavers 15 minutes has expired. Actually, if you missed last week the Seattle fullback went for 116 yards receiving and 2 Tds. The man is big and fast and Seattle really likes him but I’m not ready to buy his stock just yet.

Running Game Thoughts: As expected, the addition of Maurice Morris has relegated Julius Jones to temporary flex status. I say temporary but it’s probably permanent for the foreseeable future. Each is capable of good days, but I am incapable of predicting which back will. Last week Morris was given the most opportunities and I expect that to continue. I don’t see either of them being productive against Philly’s D this week though. The Eagles have shown some chinks in the armor recently, but are still a top-level unit. Given the lack of pass threat the Eagles will be able to focus attention around the Seahawk RB tandem and shut them down.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 300 yds passing/3 TD/1 INT
Kevin Curtis: 90 yds/1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 90 yds/1 TD
L.J. Smith: 45 yds
Brian Westbrook: 110 yds rushing/50 yds receiving/2 TD

Jets @ Bills (Marcoccio)
Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Dustin Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: ARI, SD
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: SEA, JAX, MIA
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 10.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.8/23.2/8.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.2

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jets relied heavily on the pass last week (41 pass attempts, 24 rushes) against a defense that has allowed opposing offenses to run at will and it nearly cost them the game. Brett Favre tossed 3 interceptions with one returned the other way for a TD. If Derrick Johnson didn’t drop an easy one right in his hands, it could have been 4 interceptions with two TD returns. It seems the fan and media pressure on Eric Mangini to utilize the team’s off-season prized acquisition has affected his judgment – which is never a good thing. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles were expected to miss last week’s game and both not only played but also had big days. Coles caught a beautiful one-handed touchdown to win the game. Bubba Franks was injured and Chris Baker left the game early with a hip injury leaving only rookie Dustin Keller and reserve guard Ron Turner to play TE. Bret Favre did look sharp marching the team to victory with the game on the line, but must rein in the costly interceptions (something Mangini stressed to him this week) in order for the Jets to beat a tough Buffalo team this week.

Buffalo is the 9th ranked passing defense in the NFL giving up 203 yards passing and 1 TD per game. In the past, DE Aaron Schoebel has terrorized LT D’Brickishaw Ferguson and the Jet QBs, so Ferguson must step up his game - and receive some help if needed - or Favre may be forced into a few more turnovers. Keep in mind that Jet castoff QB Chad Pennington threw for over 300 yards with a TD an no interceptions last week against this defense so in theory (albeit a warped theory) the Jets should be able to move the ball in the air easily using the QB chosen to replace Pennington. In fact the Bills have been a pretty decent math up for opposing fantasy QBs and WRs over the last three weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones and Leon Washington were grossly underused last week garnering only 17 carries between them despite averaging 7.1 yards per carry against the hapless Chief run defense. Leon Washington excelled with 67 yards and a TD on only three carries while also contributing 3 catches for 34 yards and a TD in the passing game. Washington has shown explosiveness and big-play ability that is otherwise lacking in the Jets offense. He needs to be more involved, but it is unclear if he will be.

Buffalo’s run defense is not an elite unit, but has been much stronger with the additions of Marcus Stroud in the middle, Kawika Mitchell at linebacker, and with the return to health of Paul Poluszny. They have allowed only 99.1 yards per game and 5 TDs on the season. From a fantasy perspective, they have not been an ideal match up for RBs. Add the potential of Washington cutting into Jones’ time, and it would be a decent strategy to sit Jones if you have some depth.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 235 yds passing 3 TDs, 1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 65 yds receiving, 2 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dustin Keller: 35 yds receiving
Leon Washington: 45 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 65 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/James Hardy/Robert Royal
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: MIA, NE
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: MIA, NE
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.0/15.7/8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards failed to throw a TD last week, but was still effective, passing for 227 yards. He is extremely poised for such a young starter and prior to last week’s game his name was even mentioned in some NFL MVP conversations. WR2 Josh Reed is banged up and will miss the game, opening the door for disappointing rookie James Hardy. Many fantasy footballers pegged the 6’5” Hardy as the rookie WR to own in fantasy football, thinking that at the very least he would be a great red-zone target, but he has been unable to get much playing time and has been ineffective when he has. TE Robert Royal may contribute a little more than usual with Reed out and the Jets sure to concentrate on containing Lee Evans. Combine that with the fact that the Jets have been very generous to opposing fantasy TEs all season, and Royal could be a good spot start for teams that normally have Antonio Gates or Jeremy Shockey.

The Jets’ pass defense has been statistically poor – 22nd in the NFL with 1,629 yards and 10 TDs allowed on the season – and even managed to make some guy named Tyler Thigpen look like an NFL QB last week. The improved pass rush (24 sacks on the season) has not lead to turnovers (5 interceptions) for some reason despite the fact that they have faced young QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick, JaMarcus Russell and Tyler Thigpen in recent weeks – not exactly Marino, Montana and Manning.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week I wrote “Marshawn Lynch is still looking for the massive stat line that most owners expected when drafting him near the turn of round 1 and Round 2 of their fantasy drafts”. Well, he’s still looking. Another week of steady but unspectacular production, gaining 67 yards and a TD on the ground and adding 5 catches for 34 yards. Don’t get me wrong, steady production is nice and he’s far from a bust, it’s just that most owners expected bigger things for the second-year back. But in many leagues he’s a top ten back and few people would have picked him earlier than sixth in the first round of a summer draft.

It doesn’t get any easier for Marshawn this week, as he faces the No. 4 rushing defense in the NFL. ILB David Harris injured his hip last week and did not return. If he misses Week 9 it would certainly hurt the Jets but they should still have enough in NT Kris Jenkins, LB Eric Barton and FS Kerry Rhodes to keep Lynch in check.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs
Lee Evans: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
James Hardy: 15 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Fred Jackson: 30 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 55 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Cowboys @ Giants (Marcoccio)
Brad Johnson/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Roy Williams/Jason Witten
Marion Barber III (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: WAS. StL, SF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.5/22.4/6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Brad Johnson has been so bad the last two weeks the team has talked about the possibility of Brooks Bollinger replacing him. At least Brooks is familiar with Giants Stadium, having started a few games there for the New York Jets. Bollinger is tough and a decent scrambler, but his arm is not much stronger than Johnson’s, nor has he been accused of being terribly accurate. Brad Johnson, a veritable, 40-year-old, statue will likely have an extremely difficult time against the ferocious Giant pass rush that destroyed Big Ben Roethlisbrger last week. The Cowboys don’t have an easy choice here. Jason Witten missed most of last week after breaking a rib. Although he says he will play this weekend, don’t be surprised if he is forced to sit this game out. He could then rest up during the bye week. Roy Williams grabbed his first TD as a Cowboy last week, but did little else and should Witten miss this week, Williams should see a bigger part of the offense.

The Giants’ pass rush, which was stymied in Cleveland, was back in force in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times and was forced into throwing four interceptions. On the season the Giants rank 5th in passing yards allowed (1,298) and have allowed 7 TDs. Their 26 sacks led by Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanuka leads the league. CB Aaron Ross has struggled a little in recent weeks and has seen more time than expected on the sidelines, but that should change with nickel back Kevin Dockery expected to miss the game with a back injury.

Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber ran for only 71 yards and did not score last week, but did face a tough Tampa Bay defense and was only supported by 122 yards of passing. The lack of a passing game threat has held Barber back a little over the last two weeks after he started the season on a tear. Felix Jones looks to still be injured (hamstring) and should miss another game before hopefully being back after the Week 10 bye.

Barber doesn’t catch a break this week when the Giants’ 6th ranked run defense faces off against the Cowboys. They have allowed only 602 rushing yards and 3 TDs on the ground in seven games. Antonio Pierce played last week and looked to be back in form after struggling with an injury he suffered against the Browns.

Projections:
Brad Johnson: 165 yds passing 1 TD, 2 Ints.
Terrell Owens: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 20 yds receiving
Roy Williams: 25 yds receiving
Jason Witten: 25 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Steve Smith/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: GB, StL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys season: GB, WAS, TB
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 5.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.1/21.2/2.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.8

Passing Game Thoughts: In a hostile environment against one of the league’s top defenses on their home turf, Eli Manning showed the same poise and leadership he exhibited during his Super Bowl run. He found TE Kevin Boss in the end zone for the go ahead score with 3 minutes left in the game. Second-year WR Steve Smith continues to get open consistently and has taken over the security blanket role that used to belong to Amani Toomer – although it was Toomer who had the biggest catch of the day, a 32-yard reception down the right sideline to set up the game winning TD. Plaxico Burris sat out the first quarter in yet another disciplinary action and only caught 3 passes on the day.

The Dallas defense has allowed teams to move the ball through the air on them in 2008. On the season they have allowed 1,625 yards and nine scores through the air to rank 21st in the league, so the Giants should be able to exploit this match up despite the fact the Boys managed to shut down Jeff Garcia and Tampa Bay last week. CB Anthony Henry (deep thigh bruise) will join Terrance Newman and Adam Jones on the sidelines (I must admit that I’m not sure Pac Man is actually allowed on the sidelines) this week, meaning rookies Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick will be starting at corner back for Dallas. Uh-oh.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs was consistently shut down in short yardage situations by a very stout Pittsburgh defense last week. He finished with only 47 yards on 18 carries. Derrick Ward was only slightly more effective, gaining 37 yards on 13 carries. Once again Ahmad Bradshaw was limited to kick returns for his stats clearing things up a little for fantasy owners who own Giant RBs. The Steelers’ defense was swarming, hard-hitting, and seemed on a mission to shut down the top rushing offense in the league, so don’t read too much into the paltry production of the Giant runners and look for a rebound in Week 9.

The Dallas defense is ranked 15th against the run this season and has allowed 764 rushing yards and 6 TDs on the season. The Cowboy linebackers are going to have to control their desire to rush the passer and concentrate on the big backs lined up across from them if the Cowboys hope to slow down this successful rushing attack.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 285 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Plaxico Burress: 105 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Amani Toomer: 45 yds receiving
Steve Smith: 65 yds receiving
Kevin Boss: 15 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Derrick Ward: 65 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 15 yds rushing

Steelers @ Redskins (Marcoccio)
Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Nate Washington/Heath Miller
Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: NYG, DAL, PHI, CLE
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: NO, PHI
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.9/14.1/2.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger had one of the worst games in his young professional career. He completed only 13 of 29 passes for 189 yards (although he did manage a 65 yard TD pass), with four interceptions and he was sacked five times for a loss of 35 yards. The Steelers o-line, which was deteriorating last season and is now missing All-Pro guard Alan Faneca, who left via free agency, simply cannot protect Big Ben. Luckily they face a team this week that has not been able to generate much of a pass rush this season. Once again, they will be without DE Jason Taylor, their only true pass rushing specialist. Nate Washington filled in nicely for “Smokin’ “Santonio Holmes, but will likely move back to the slot with Holmes’ return this week. Holmes may be on a mission to make up for last week’s blunder, which is always a nice thing for fantasy owners Washington’s pass defense is ranked 19th in the league, having allowed 1,563 yards and 8 TDs in the first eight weeks. As mentioned earlier they have not generated much of a pass rush (10 sacks) with Jason Taylor missing a lot of time. Reports indicate that Shawn Springs will miss this week’s game and former first round pick Carlos Rodgers will replace him in the line up. This could be a perfect recipe for the Steelers’ passing game to get back on track, a team with a limited pass rush that has had trouble defending the pass all season and will now be missing their best cover corner.

Running Game Thoughts: Fast Willie Parker who missed four games with a knee injury, which wasn’t considered that serious at the time he fist suffered it has been practicing this week and is expected to resume his starting role. Mewelde Moore, a player that excelled in limited opportunities with the Vikings, filled in admirably and figures to have earned some playing time even with Parker back in the mix. Moore ran for 84 yards against a tough Giant defense last week including a 32-yard TD scamper.

The Redskins are still a top 10 rushing defense in 2009 despite the fact that they are one of the few teams left that have not yet had their bye week. They have been extremely difficult on opposing RBs and have allowed only 662 yards and four rushing TDs on the season – one of them to Eli Manning to start the year. Parker may be a little rusty after missing so much time and will be facing a tough run defense, so owners that have some solid depth may want to wait a week before re-inserting FWP back into their line-up.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs / 1 INT
Hines Ward: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Washington: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 25 yards receiving
Willie Parker: 55 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 45 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: PHI
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: PHI, JAX
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 7.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.1/17.0/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell, who had started to cool off - from a fantasy football perspective at least - after a three-week stretch where he was looking like a legit fantasy starting QB, put up some nice numbers last week (328 yards and a TD) against the porous Detroit secondary. Santana Moss continued his stellar season, catching a 50-yard TD from Campbell as part of a 9-catch, 140-yard (while also taking a punt return to the house) day. Chris Cooley contributed 6 catches for 74 yards. The Skins surprisingly have yet to incorporate any of their three, second round picks (Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis) into their game plan so far this season. Kelly has been injured the last few weeks, but Thomas and Davis are healthy from all indications.

Pittsburgh is the top-ranked passing defense, having allowed only 1,151 yards and 6 TDs in seven games. They have sacked opposing QBs 25 times and intercepted 6 balls. The defense did all it could last week against the New York Giants but turnovers by the offense tested the unit tremendously – and for the most part they passed the test.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis is likely the fantasy MVP so far, if not the leading candidate for NFL MYP. He has 944 rushing yards and 7 TDs on the season. The only criticism his fantasy owners could levy is that Jim Zorn has not used him in the passing game much. But that would be like complaining about winning one of the “smaller" jackpots in the Mega Millions lottery. Former NFL MVP Shaun Alexander will continue to backup Portis with Ladell Betts sidelined.

Pittsburgh is the third-ranked rushing defenses and held the Giants top ranked rushing attack to only 83 yards last week. On the season they allow only 71.6 yards per game and have given up only 3 rushing TDs. This should be a true test for Clinton Portis this week. If he manages to put up 125 yards and a score or two on this unit you can start engraving the “C” on the MYP trophy.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 205 yds passing, 1 TD
Santana Moss: 60 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 45 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Clinton Portis: 85 yards rushing, 1 TD / 5 yards receiving

Lions at Bears (Mack)
Dan Orlovsky / Calvin Johnson / Shaun McDonald / Mike Furrey
Rudi Johnson / Kevin Smith

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A

Passing Game Thoughts: The passing game in Detroit is about as exciting to watch as a grass growing contest. Offensive line woes, a dreadful running game and an antiquated offensive scheme make starting any Lions player (and who else would you start besides Calvin Johnson?) a scary proposition. Perhaps the biggest travesty of all is Detroit’s lack of involving Calvin Johnson more in the game plan. He’s the team’s only playmaker on offense, and for the Lions to only throw the ball his way 10 times over the last two games is criminal. Head coach Rob Marinelli has said teams take him away, but coaches don’t say that about Andre Johnson, or Dwayne Bowe or Bernard Berrian. These players produce each week on a consistent basis despite being their teams’ best receiving threat.

To his credit, QB Dan Orlovsky has yet to throw a pick in his last three game. But his play has been spotty and he’s fair from being a suitable fantasy option. Orlovsky doesn’t take any risks downfield and seems uneasy in the pocket, which plunges his already microscopic value down the tubes. The Bears are coming off a bye and they are sure to come out smoking. But if Chicago has any weakness, it’s their pass defense. They rank 29th in the league in that category, but the Lions don’t have the personnel nor the mental fortitude to take advantage. This may be the game where Orlovsky shows his inexperience and flounders into a multiple INT game.

Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have continued to struggle running the football. They managed only 57 total yards as a team last week against Washington, even though the game remained close into the 3rd quarter. That’s not a good sign when you’re preparing to go on the road to play the league’s 6th best run defense. Whether it’s Rudi Johnson or Kevin Smith, the Lions’ ground attack is unimaginative and lacks the physical presence that’s necessary to sustain production.

The O-line is a sieve, and what’s worse is defenses are stopping Detroit’s running game by having only seven in the box; there’s no need to bring an extra defender down. That should continue this Sunday. Detroit’s offense is a mess, there’s not a lot to say beyond that. Calvin Johnson notwithstanding, you should ignore any player wearing the Honolulu blue and silver.

Projections:
Dan Orlovsky: 160 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Calvin Johnson: 85 yards / 1 TD
Shaun McDonald: 35 yards
Mike Furrey: 30 yards
Rudi Johnson: 45 yards
Kevin Smith: 25 yards

Kyle Orton / Rashied Davis / Devin Hester / Greg Olson
Matt Forte (vs. Detroit)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Atlanta
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: San Francisco
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 13.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton has been one of the hottest QBs in the league during the past month or so. He has totaled eight TDs with only two INTs over his last four games, including zero INTs over the last three. He’s on fire, and there’s nothing like having the league’s 31st ranked pass defense to toy with after a bye week to continue the streak. Orton has displayed none of the happy feet and questionable judgment that characterized his early career with Chicago. He’s now a confident QB who stands tall in the pocket and tosses strikes all over the field to a solid, if not unspectacular, group of WRs. But both Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker are questionable for the game, but Devin Hester has a great chance of playing.

Detroit is last in the league, having only snagged one INT all season. One interception. Ouch. Their 15 sacks put them in the middle of the pack, but no one is worried about the Detroit’s inconsistent pass rush. Orton should have a ton of time to throw, and as a result, I think Rashied Davis will have a monster game.

Running Game Thoughts: Here’s a surprise: rookie Matt Forte hasn’t had a 100 yard game since the season opener in Indy. That said, he has still put up very good numbers both in the passing game and with his TD total. He’s rumbled into the end zone three consecutive games, so the fact that his yardage total may not be where his owners would like, he’s still a force and a must-start. Not to mention the Lions have the 31st ranked run defense and the league’s worst overall defense. This game is as good a time as any for Forte to break his sub-100 yard streak.

Anyone who saw the Lions’ game last week vs. Clinton Portis and the Redskins saw Portis gash Detroit’s defense time after time with huge chunks of yardage. I believe Forte will be featured heavily in the Bears’ game plan, to the point where he should get 30 carries. He’s a battering ram whose physical play will wear down Detroit’s defense—much the same way the ‘Skins played. Forte should put up 150 total yards and multiple TDs this week.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 235 yards / 3 TDs
Rashied Davis: 90 yards / 1 TD
Devin Hester: 50 yards
Greg Olson: 35 yards / 1 TD
Matt Forte: 120 yards rushing / 1 TD - 45 yard rec. / 1 TD

Jaguars at Bengals (Mack)
David Garrard / Matt Jones / Reggie Williams / Dennis Northcutt
Maurice Jones-Drew / Fred Taylor (vs. Cincy)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Pittsburgh
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Pittsburgh
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12

Passing Game Thoughts: After starting the season with four INTs through the first three games, David Garrard has settled in nicely. He hasn’t thrown a pick in the last four games, and he has at least 200 yards in each contest. His TD total leaves much to be desired, but if you have him on your team you know he’s not that kind of player. But the steady and efficient player we saw most of last season seems to have surfaced after his solid play last week against Cleveland.

Cincinnati’s dismal record aside, the Bengals have at least shown a pulse on the defensive side of the ball. Personally, I think that lofty rating is misleading. They’ve been torched the last two games by Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Schaub, giving up five TDs while not registering and interception in the last two games vs. Pittsburgh and Houston. Granted, Jacksonville doesn’t boast the kind of quick-strike offense that the Steelers or the Texans possess, but Garrard’s consistency over the last month shows that he is at least capable of slicing Cincy’s defense with both his arm and his legs. Matt Jones should continue his fine play and use his size against the young CBs on the Bengals to get down field and make plays.

Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville’s running game has been painfully inconsistent this year. Case in point: Maurice Jones-Drew torched Denver two weeks ago for 125 yards and two TDs, only to follow that up last week with a pedestrian 29 yards and no TDs against Cleveland’s 24th ranked defense. And Fred Taylor, after running through Indy for 121 yards in week 3, has only 145 yards COMBINED in the other six games. That kind of hit-or-miss production from a RB leaves fantasy owners with no alternative but to keep them on the bench. But with the high draft pick many spent on MJD, that’s a tough decision.

The Jags play Cincinnati this week and its 28th ranked run defense. The Bengals, however, played well last week when they held Houston’s Steve Slaton to 53 yards. But they also have the ability to get torched, as evidenced by Mewelde Moore running for 120 yards two weeks ago in a Pittsburgh victory. I think the Jags will try to establish the ground game early and impose their will on the undermanned Bengals. They will take an occasional shot down the field to Matt Jones, but this game will be put into the hands of Jones-Drew and Taylor, and I believe the ground game for the Jags will surface once again to the tune of 150 rushing yards between the two RBs.

Projections:
David Garrard: 190 yards / 1 TD
Matt Jones: 75 yards / 1 TD
Reggie Williams: 55 yards
Dennis Northcutt: 30 yards
Maurice Jones-Drew: 85 yards rushing / 1 TD
Fred Taylor: 40 yards

Ryan Fitzpatrick / TJ Houshmandzadeh / Chad Johnson / Chris Henry
Cedric Benson / Chris Perry (vs. Jacksonville)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jags this season: Houston
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jags this season: Cleveland
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a back-up QB masquerading as a starter, plain and simple. His four starts have netted a total of two TDs and five INTs and his presence has plummeted the stock of TJ Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson in the process. There is no discernable proof that he has the ability to improve beyond what he has shown, but Cincy has no choice but to play him while Carson Palmer’s elbow is on the mend.

As frequently targeted as Houshmandzadeh is, his 9.5 yards per catch is the lowest of his career—and that’s saying something for Mr. Possession Receiver himself. TJ’s the recipient of Fitzpatrick’s dink-and-dunk style, while Johnson has simply fallen off the fantasy landscape. His 57 yards against the Jets several weeks ago represents a season high in yardage, so if anyone is feeling the affects of Palmer’s absence Ocho Cinco is. The Jags, however, have been underwhelming on defense. A team that in year’s past prided itself on being able to stop the opponent has not lived up to that lofty reputation. Their 22nd ranked pass defense is nothing special, and their nine sacks is the 3rd lowest in the league.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Perry, the starting running back at the start of the season, has been replaced by Cedric Benson. That’s all that needs to be said about the dismal state of the Bengals’ ground attack. Perry’s a versatile back with nice quickness, but his fumbling problems and the overall struggles of the NFL’s worst offense led to his demise. In steps Benson, whose bruising style gives the Bengals the only semblance of physicality on the entire team.

Physicality aside, there’s not much left to hang one’s hat on relative to the Cincy’s offense. The offensive line is a mess and there’s no deep threat in the passing game, so teams can crowd the line of scrimmage and make life miserable of Benson, Perry or whoever else runs the rock. The Jags’ middle-of-the-road defense gave up 81 yards and a TD to Jamal Lewis last week, but Benson is no Lewis. This will be another tough game for Cincy and prove to be yet another reason to keep all Bengals’ RB out of your line-up.

Projections:
Ryan Fitpatrick: 145 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 60 yards / 1 TD
Chad Johnson: 50 yards
Chris Henry: 25 yards
Cedric Benson: 60 yards
Chris Perry: 35 yards

Ravens @ Browns (Mack)
Joe Flacco / Derrick Mason / Demetrius Williams / Todd Heap
Willis McGahee / Le’Ron McClain (vs. Cleveland)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Pittsburgh
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie Joe Flacco got off to a slow start last week, but he righted the ship quickly. He scored two TDs (1 pass, 1 run) last week after having scored only two TDs in his last four games. The Ravens lack a true outside threat, someone who can consistently put pressure on the secondary and make defenses account for him. Derrick Mason is the best they’ve got, and while he remains one of the best possession WRs in the league, he’s certainly on the back nine of his career. Demetrius Williams shows promise, but he’s still a work in progress.

Cleveland has quietly played well defensively this year, especially defending the pass. The Browns’ 12 sacks are less than impressive, but their nine interceptions puts them fifth in the league in that category. The going will be rough for Flacco in this game. With the Ravens’ lack of a true receiving threat, the Browns should be able to clamp down in the secondary and make Baltimore one-dimensional.

Running Game Thoughts: After spending the first quarter of the season waiting on several injuries to heal, it now seems Willis McGahee has taken a firm grasp of the starting RB position. Rookie Ron Rice and Le’Ron McClain had gotten more playing time during the first month of the season, but McGahee has now been the primary ball carrier during the past month or so. He has looked good, showing the power the Ravens need in their running game.

Cleveland’s secondary has played well despite early season struggles, but their run defense has shown vulnerabilities. They rank in the bottom third in the league in that category. The Browns should expect to see a heavy dose of McGahee and company in what should be a low-scoring game. Plus with Flacco’s continued maturation process, head coach John Harbaugh will rely on the ground game to ease his young QB into shape.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 150 yards passing / 0 TD / 1 INT
Derrick Mason: 60 yards
Demetrius Williams: 40 yards
Todd Heap: 35 yards
Willis McGahee: 95 yards / 1 TD
Le’Ron McClain: 30 yards

Derek Anderson / Braylon Edwards / Donte Stallworth / Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. Baltimore)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Miami
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Pittsburgh
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8

Passing Game Thoughts: Is it so that Derek Anderson is finally starting to show something? Anderson has been a killjoy during the first half of the season, stinking up the joint game after game. But after throwing six picks through the first four games, he hasn’t thrown any over the last three. That’s a start, although his sub-50 percent completion percentage still raises concern. And what do you know? Even his receivers are starting to hold onto the ball more. But does any of this matter? Baltimore’s defense is as tough as they come, as their top 3 pass defense ranking would attest.

You can best believe Anderson will be under siege early and often in this game. The Ravens will look to rattle the inaccurate Anderson and force him to make quick decisions which they hope will turn into turnovers. CBs Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are both battling injuries, and only Rolle looks like he will play. That’s a good thing for Anderson and the Browns’ passing game, although Cleveland’s first order of business should be to keep Terrell Suggs and the other fire-breathing defenders off of their QB.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamal Lewis’ last four games have delivered text book production from a fantasy RB2: an 81 yards per game average with three total TDs. That’s pretty good, but now it gets tough. Lewis struggled against his former team in the first meeting, rushing for only 56 yards. The Ravens crowded the line of scrimmage and virtually eliminated all running lanes. Lewis was the Browns’ best offensive weapon that day, as Anderson threw three picks and receivers dropped pass after pass.

The game is in Cleveland this time, which should bring hope for Lewis owners. And with the offense having shown signs of productivity on a consistent basis, Lewis is better poised to outdo his stats from the first meeting. I anticipate the Ravens employing the same defensive game plan as the first game, with defenders close to the line of scrimmage and forcing Anderson to put it in the air. And with Baltimore probably without its top two starting corners, putting pressure on Anderson will be the Ravens’ top priority.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 175 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 75 yards
Donte Stallworth: 45 yards
Kellen Winslow: 55 yards / 1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 60 yards / 1 TD

Texans @ Vikings (Mack)
Matt Schaub / Andre Johnson / Kevin Walter / Owen Daniel
Steve Slaton / Ahman Green (vs. Minnesota)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Indianapolis
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Green Bay
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Remember those quiet whispers early in the season that Matt Schaub’s job was in jeopardy and that Sage Rosenfels was primed to replace him? Remember the clamoring for Schaub’s skull after the threw five interceptions through the season’s first two games? Whether or not those rumors were true, Schaub has catapulted his value in fantasy world with perhaps the hottest streak for a QB so far this season not named Drew Brees. He’s tossed nine TDs over the last four games and only two picks. Granted, those four teams (Jacksonville, Miami, Detroit, Cincinnati) will never be mistaken for the ’85 Bears, but that kind of hot streak against anybody in the NFL should be applauded.

And if a QB is that hot, chances are there’s a WR in lockstep with him. Andre Johnson is on a torrid pace of his own. He’s averaged 10 catches and 149 yards per game over the last four with two total TDs. The TD total is could be higher, put in PPR leagues Johnson is money. Now they take their show on the road against the 20th ranked pass defense. This game has shoot out written all over it, and both Johnson and Schaub should be primary beneficiaries if that occurs.

Running Game Thoughts: Steve Slaton has maintained a level of consistency all season that makes deciding to put him in your line-up an easy decision. He’s not the 20-25 carry-per-game player, but Slaton’s versatile enough where he will get his touches some way. He’s 10th among RBs in receptions and he shows the ability to do something with it once he gets the rock in his hands. But Minnesota’s defense remains a brick wall to opponents; they’re ranked 2nd in the league this year.

The one caveat about starting Slaton is rickety-kneed Ahman Green has resurfaced and produced just enough over the last couple games to be a nuisance to Slaton owners everywhere. They haven’t necessarily split the carries 50-50, but after having little worry about Green vulturing touches from Slaton early on, it sort of a downer with the most important time in fantasy football around the corner. Neither Green nor Slaton will do much on the ground against the Vikings, although I think Slaton should prove more valuable with his pass-catching and route running ability.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 250 yards passing / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Andre Johnson: 130 yards / 1 TD
Kevin Walter: 55 yards / 1 TD
Owen Daniel: 35 yards
Steve Slaton: 65 yards rushing / 35 yards receiving
Ahman Green: 25 yards rushing

Gus Frerotte / Bernard Berrian / Bobby Wade / Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor (vs. Houston)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Jacksonville
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Tennessee
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16

Passing Game Thoughts: King Erratic himself, Gus Frerotte, returns from the bye hoping to redeem himself from the four interception stinker two weeks ago. Houston defense is nothing special outside of DE Mario Williams, although they stifled Cincy’s offense last week in grand fashion. LT Bryant McKinnie must keep Williams from disrupting the passing game if Frerotte is to do anything of note. Any kind of pressure—real or imagine—against Frerotte and we could very well see another multiple interception game from the veteran journeyman signal caller.

Bernard Berrian has really taken off since Frerotte’s ascension to the starting line-up. He’s the Vikings’ clear #1 option and he’s making the most of all of his opportunities. He’s averaged well over 100 yards during the last three games and has scored a TD in each. Houston has no one to keep up with the fleet-footed Berrian, which is why it is vital to keep Frerotte upright long enough to allow Berrian to run 9-routes all day. I say there’s a good chance Berrian gets loose again this week for a long bomb.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson has been Adrian Peterson this year. To no one’s surprise, he’s shown the burst, the vision and the quickness that made him Rookie of the Year last year. Minnesota has the 8th best running attack, and with one of the NFL’s best O-lines going against a defense that surrenders 120 yards a game on the ground, AP could have a monster game.

This game may center on the aerial attack of both teams, but that certainly should not exclude Peterson from getting in on the action. Chester Taylor has been useless all season and only warrants a spot on your roster if you’re a paranoid Peterson owner waiting to cash in on the insurance policy should AP go down to injury.

Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 220 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Bernard Berrian: 95 yards / 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 60 yards / 1 TD
Visanthe Shiancoe: 40 yards
Adrian Peterson: 110 yards / 1 TD
Chester Taylor: 20 yards

Patriots @ Colts (Dhawan)
Peyton Manning/ Marvin Harrison/ Reggie Wayne/ Anthony Gonzalez/ Dallas Clark/ Tom Santi
Joseph Addai/ Dominic Rhodes (vs. NE)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +14.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +28.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -6.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +19.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The bouncing ball goes up and down…up and down…up and down. Such is the state of football’s icon passer in 2008. Just when we think Manning has returned to normal play, he tosses 2 INTs to mar a 2TD, 1 rush TD evening. Further disturbing is the continued looks WR Marvin Harrison gets on necessary situations when his skills have clearly diminished to those of an ordinary player. Manning is stuck due to loyalty and history together. On these critical downs, he needs to seek out his new “flavor of this half of his career” Reggie Wayne--- him of 100-plus receptions last season. The second pick brings up a league problem: catching. Namely, tight end catching. Where are the tight ends that catch the ball? Does the league not have any of these rare creatures anymore? Dallas Clark is a great speed weapon for the Colts, and fits their offense well; but, he is TERRIBLE at catching when it matters most. Last year, in the playoff loss, he bobbled a soft sideline floater on a critical fourth down; last Monday, he muffed a pass out of his mitts into the grasp of a defender. The guy is a great fantasy target and 3 quarters player, but he has zero clutch skills. Where are Wesley Walls or Shannon Sharpe when you need them? Walls is the player I most compare to current stud Jason Witten. Both are no nonsense, Caucasian, throwback types who simply get the job done. Hell, even give me Frank Wycheck. It may not be but 4 or 7 yards, but at least it will be a tough traffic completion. In the past 5 years, the league GMs have focused on physicality at the position to duplicate Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez, but have forgotten about what makes the position unique---tough receptions in traffic with physical contact. Watching Clark, Marcedes Lewis, or Jerramy Stevens is a testament to this decline. As for the passing game, this match up is like a college rivalry game---the records go out the window. The Brady-less Pats and their slowing defense do not have the horses anymore to run with the even sputtering Colts. Manning and his guys will right the ship this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Dominic Rhodes has been pretty productive in his 2 week stint as the starter. Reports out of Indianapolis lean towards both Joseph Addai [practiced this week] and Rhodes getting carries this game. I would expect Rhodes to still be the major contributor in running, while Addai may see more time on 3rd downs for his receiving skills and pass protection.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 290 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Marvin Harrison: 30 rec
Reggie Wayne: 120 rec/ 2 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 75 rec
Dallas Clark: 85 rec/1 TD
Tom Santi: 25 rec
Dominic Rhodes: 70 rush/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 40 rush/ 20 rec/1TD

Matt Cassel/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Jabar Gaffney/Ben Watson
Kevin Faulk/BenJarvus Green-Ellis (vs. IND)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -24.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -31.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -6.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +19.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Pats have quietly rebounded from two monster annihilations by the Dolphins and Chargers. At the halfway point, they sit with a 5-2 record and are in position to challenge the Bills for the division [they still have 2 games remaining versus each other]. Matt Cassel has shown improvement though the game plan, and keeps his confidence high when things go well, as in victories over the Broncos and Rams. Coincidentally, these were games in which Randy Moss posted great fantasy stats [70 yards and 2 TDs and 7 receptions and 100 yards, respectively]. Wes Welker is nothing more than his normal human self now, a reception monger who posts decent weekly stats for his owner. The Colts boast that S Bob Sanders has returned to practice and will play in this game; if so, it bodes difficulty for the deep ball to Moss, which has been sporadic at best for Cassel. Kevin Faulk will be a factor against the Dungy2 defense, as he was in last year’s contest.

Running Game Thoughts: The boom or bust prospects of HB BenJarvus Green-Ellis were longer than his name last week. After a bust 10 yards on 8 carries, waiver wire grabbers were left wretching. Luckily, he got into the end zone to at least pay for the waiver fee. Kevin Faulk and ‘the kid’ will split the carries this week and HB Sammy Morris is still out with a knee injury. They will need any contribution to balance the attack and keep pass rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis off of Cassel’s back.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 260 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Randy Moss: 90 rec/1 TD
Wes Welker: 70 rec
Jabar Gaffney: 40 rec
Ben Watson: 20 rec
Kevin Faulk: 40 rush/ 40 rec/1TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 30 rush

Packers @ Titans (Dhawan)
Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings/Donald Driver/James Jones/Jordy Nelson/Donald Lee/Ruvell Martin
Ryan Grant/Brandon Jackson (vs. TEN)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -44.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +67.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers has done an admirable job replacing the legend in his first half of a season. Fantasy wise, he is probably among the top5 point producers in most non-PPR leagues [padded by his 3 rush TDs]. The Packers face a tough defensive stretch with the Titans this week, followed by the Bears and Vikings before a post-Thanksgiving “shootout showdown” with the Saints at the Superdome. Rodgers has the mobility and arm to shred a tough defense [late September versus the Bucs]. There are enough weapons to pressure the coverage of the Titans, and the offensive line is able to protect with bookend tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton performing at a Pro Bowl level and young studs Scott Wells and Daryn Colledge anchoring the middle. James Jones returns from a knee injury this week after not playing the past 2 games.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant has returned to health from a nagging hamstring injury. He has posted back-to-back games with a whopping 30-plus carries. Although his YPC are low, his toughness and persistence have been great. He found the end zone for the first time this season last week, and owners will look for a similar second half of season as in 2007 when Grant racked up close to 900 yards and 9 scores. This week is a tough game against DT Albert Haynesworth and lesser known rotational DT Tony Brown, but DE Kyle Vanden Bosch sat out with a groin injury and may not be in the lineup this week lessen the pass rush force of Tennessee.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 290 pass/2 TD/0INT
Greg Jennings: 110 rec/1 TD
Donald Driver: 60 rec
James Jones: 20 rec
Jordy Nelson: 40 rec
Donald Lee: 30 rec/1 TD
Ruvell Martin: 20 rec
Ryan Grant: 70 rush/1 TD

Kerry Collins/Justin Gage/Justin McCareins/Brandon Jones/LaVelle Hawkins/ Bo Scaife
LenDale White/Chris Johnson (vs. GB)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -20.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -37.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +34.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +7.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kerry Collins was the real deal on MNF versus the Colts. The Titans and there QB answered a lot of questions on a national platform regarding their toughness, consistency, and adaptability. After falling behind 14-6, they were able to pass the football [albeit somewhat similar to the McNair to Wycheck days] methodically and erase a deficit. Collins showed why he is the current starter and what teams like Dallas, Minnesota, and New York are and were seeking at the position: poise, command, calm, and leadership. Charles Woodson and the Packers secondary have been very strong, especially at cashing interceptions into TDs [Woodson and S Nick Collins have 2 apiece with co-league leader Rashean Mathis]. Collins will find his guys, but he may need to toss some scores if the Packers rack up more than the 12 points the Titans are accustomed to allowing.

Running Game Thoughts: Get these guys on your roster now. LenDale White continues to prove his worth as the league leader with 10 rushing TDs in only 7 games [almost normal-Tomlinson like]. As Tom Cruise said in “The Firm” regarding mail fraud: “it’s not sexy, but it has teeth”. White is not the flash and dash, but his 10 and 40 yard games are palatable with his scoring production, especially as your HB3 or HB2 in a deep league. Chris “Superjets”Johnson grows each week, this time showing patience on a late TD run to seal the game. The combine film was about his speed and acceleration to take away angles from closing defenders in the open field. Now, he is showing he can be coached by the excellent staff and pick up the subtleties of his position [his dropped flat route pass is still a sign of needed consistency in that department]. The Titans will stick to the formula all the way to a probable 12-plus win season [only games against Chicago, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and these Packers loom as difficult], so these runners are gold until week 16. They will continue their success this week against a 25th ranked rush defense unit allowing 140 yards per game.

Projections:
Kerry Collins: 220 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Justin Gage: 40 rec
Justin McCareins: 25 rec
Brandon Jones: 40 rec
LaVelle Hawkins: 25 rec
Bo Scaife: 40rec
Alge Crumpler: 20 rec/1 TD
LenDale White: 60 rush/2 TD
Chris Johnson: 90 rush/30 rec/1 TD