Jaguars @ Broncos (Eakin)
David Garrard/Matt Jones/Mike Walker/Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Jones-Drew/Fred Taylor (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Buccaneers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Chargers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.5

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard is 14th in QB FPTs scored. His season has fallen somewhat shy of the sleeper top ten candidate many predicted him to be. A big part of that is due to offensive line injuries suffered early on. His production has steadily increased as his line gets acclimated so he’s still quietly on pace to achieve those expectations. The run game struggles have made the Jags pass more than expected and Matt Jones has finally stepped up to become a reliable producer.

After playing in a few shoot-outs Champ Bailey and company have had two solid games in a row. Not coincidentally, they finally pressured and sacked the QB a few times last week. They have been employing more exotic blitz packages including a CB Blitz by Champ Bailey that created a sack and turnover. Young DE Jarvis Moss has been M.I.A. until recently and is now being transitioned to OLB in passing downs to take advantage of his pass rushing skills. They won’t press the Titans for the top defense any time soon but give them credit for adjusting nicely in season. The jury is still out but progress is evident.

Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville’s run struggles are a combination of the line woes on both offense and defense. We discussed the O-line problems but their inability to stop the run keeps their offense off the field, and causes them to play from behind more than they did last year. Last week Pittsburg flat shut them down with no rush going more than eight yards. They should be able to exploit Denver’s poor run defense unless they once again fall behind early. If forced to pass then Maurice Jones-Drew becomes the better fantasy option between him and Fred Taylor because of his receiving ability and goal line carries. With all of Denver’s offensive injuries that I will cover below I don’t expect that to happen and as a result, I think Fred Taylor may have a good performance.

As predicted (patting myself on the back) D.J. Williams had a big game last week with double digit tackles and a sack. In fact, the entire LB core with Boss Bailey and Nate Webster were productive and provide hope of turning their run defense around. They didn’t allow a rushing TD for the first time this season.

Projections:
David Garrard: 220 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT
Matt Jones: 75 yds receiving/1 TD
Mike Walker: 60 yds receiving
Marcedes Lewis: 45 yds receiving
Maurice Jones-Drew: 40 yds rushing/25 yds receiving/1 TD
Fred Taylor: 80 yds rushing/1 TD

Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Brandon Stokely/Nate Jackson
Selvin Young/Michael Pittman (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Steelers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Steelers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 21.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler showed the patience of a veteran that I stressed he needed to last week against the Tampa Cover Two. He wasn’t explosive and Brandon Marshall was held in check but he had no turnovers and won the game. Sometimes less is more and I think last week cemented my glowing opinion of him as a leader, not that any fantasy owners care much about game management skills. “We want TDs mini Elway!” Cutler will have to do without the services of TE Tony Scheffler who either has a groin pull or sports hernia, and Eddie Royal who is doubtful with a sprained ankle. Brandon Marshall versus Rashean Mathis will be a great matchup between two of the most athletic players in the league at their respective positions.

Injuries may be to blame for The Jags getting burned by QBs the past two weeks. Missing are Reggie Nelson and Drayton Florence. Memo to all NFL players: there is a direct link between name changes and poor performance that has recently been scientifically proven. We all know about Chad Ocho Cinco but was anyone aware of the artist William James formerly known as Will Peterson who once was a NY Giant starter? He filled in for Florence at CB but was yanked at half time. Pierson Prioleau moved to safety and former safety Brian Williams moved to corner. After that they were able to stop the Big Ben onslaught for the rest of the game after allowing three first half TD passes. With the move’s success, expect their backfield to remain that way against the Broncos.

Running Game Thoughts: How many times should I be allowed to begin by saying “As I predicted…?” Is three too many? Because Michael Pittman took a larger role in the run game last week as I pred… I think you get the point now, right? He’s looking like a big piece of cheese to Shanahan and we are possibly entering the midst of a Denveresque three game glory run. You can bet on Ryan Torrain returning in week 9 to end the run just as fantasy owners build up enough confidence to start Pittman. Such is life in the Mile High Club, its fun for a bit but is always a quickie if you get my drift. Still, Pittman is the RB to start this week but only if you’re in a bad jam. Jacksonville isn’t the run stopping force they once were and Pittman should at the very least get you a TD.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 245 yds passing/2 TD/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 90 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 50 yds
Tony Scheffler: 35 yds
Selvin Young: 35 yds rushing/20 yds receiving
Michael Pittman: 65 yds rushing/1 TD

Cowboys @ Cardinals (Eakin)
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Marion Barber/Felix Jones (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Washington
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Washington
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 15.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.7

Passing Game Thoughts: They don’t get the ball to Terrell Owens enough; just ask him if you don’t believe me. I couldn’t resist that opening after all his attention getting interviews demanding the ball more. The Cowboys have been passing well but secondary receivers Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin have been getting some of the big plays and TDs. Despite Owens’ complaints, the Cowboys are at their best utilizing their multiple weapons like TE Jason Witten, and RBs Marion Barber and Felix Jones, both of whom do a great job of catching balls out of the backfield.

One Way Arizona can slow down Dallas is sending Adrian Wilson after Tony Romo on a blitz to knockout a 2nd QB in as many weeks. Short of that they will struggle to slow Jerry’s Kids down. OLB Travis LaBoy has stepped up the last two weeks and helped pressure the QB but the Cardinals still need to get healthy on the defensive line to make the leap to an upper echelon defense.

Running Game Thoughts: For the past two weeks I haven’t seen enough determination to run the ball with authority and wear down the opposition, despite having a huge offensive line and punishing Marion Barber. They are too concerned about looking sexy and hitting big pass plays. I heard HC Wade Phillips in an interview today saying they haven’t got the ball to their outside WRs enough. Apparently Terrell Owens’ whining works. If he is targeted 19 times and that’s all his production is then they are playing inefficient continuing to force the ball in to him. They will once again disappoint come playoff time if they try to finesse their way. The Cowboys of the 90’s could run right through you when they got in trouble, but they seemed to have forgotten the formula for winning since then. The team should be built around Marion Barber and Jason Witten. That is what wins in the physical NFC East, the poor weather playoffs, and opens up the big plays.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 315 yds passing/2 TD/1 INT
Terrell Owens: 90 yds/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 60 yds
Jason Witten: 65 yds/1 TD
Marion Barber: 85 yds rushing/25 yds receiving/1 TD
Felix Jones: 30 yds rushing/25 yds receiving/1 TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Steve Breaston/Early Doucet
Edgerrin James/Tim Hightower (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Packers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.1

Passing Game Thoughts: With a bye next week Anquan Boldin will sit another week in a 3 for 2 deal. Steve Breaston performed well in his absence with 77 yards on 7 catches. Rookie Early Doucet also made a big contribution catching some underneath routes for first downs. Kurt Warner is currently 5th in QB FPTs per game and has bounced back after the 6 turnover debacle against the Jets. He has thrown 10 TDs to 4 INTs so he is taking care of the ball and making good decisions.

The Cowboys will have trouble stopping the Arizona air attack based on their backfield troubles to date. CB Adam Jones is improving and has a lot of defended passes. Terrence Newman is once again on the injury list with strained abdominals. Grumbling from fans over his constant injuries is prevalent in blogs and radio call-in shows. In his absence Dallas has to play two rookies in Nickel and Dime packages which is where they have been vulnerable. The Cards will spread them out and try to exploit this weakness.

Running Game Thoughts: Edgerrin James is 15th in fantasy points scored among RBs while Tim Hightower is 24th. So the Cardinals combined have a solid rushing attack but neither back has great speed or makes big plays. Hightower is still getting most but not all goal line carries and about a third of the carries. The Cards could really use a speed back to take advantage of the pressure their pass attack puts on defenses.

One thing Dallas can do on defense is stop the run. They are big, fast and physical upfront. Nose Guard Jay Ratliff has been an impressive surprise along with Commissioner Roger Goodell’s good buddy Tank Johnson. They are doing a great job of jamming up the middle. The Cowboys keep Dolphin castoff Zach Thomas in on run downs to keep him fresh and take advantage of his instinctive ability to stop the run. They take a little hit with Pat Watkins filling in for SS Roy Williams who is still one of the league’s top line of scrimmage safeties.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 250 yds passing/2 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 110 yds/2 TD
Steve Breaston: 70 yds
Early Doucet: 45 yds
Edgerrin James: 65 yds rushing/15 yds receiving
Tim Hightower: 30 yds rushing/20 yds receiving/1 TD

Eagles @ 49ers (Eakin)
Donovan McNabb/DeSean Jackson/Reggie Brown/L.J. Smith
Correll Buckhalter (vs. SF)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season: Saints
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season: Seattle
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 30.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 22.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Throw out McNabb’s week one explosion against the hapless Rams and he has only thrown 4 TDs in 5 games. Rookie DeSean Jackson has been more impressive on special teams than offense recently. Donovan McNabb expressed his embarrassment over his play last week and is determined to come back with a good performance. It looks like his top weapon from last season, Kevin Curtis, will make his return from a sports hernia but may be on a play count. If he’s available in your league go get him now. The only thing missing may be RB Brian Westbrook who is doubtful with cracked ribs and a big part of their pass attack.

San Francisco played well against the Patriots except on two levels, the 66 yard TD to Randy Moss where CB Walt Harris fell down, and allowing the Pats to convert several key 3rd down passes at critical junctures. They did get 3 sacks on Matt Cassel and two of them came from the defensive line which has been a point of poor production. I still think they can gel and become a solid unit with their free agent acquisitions and solid LB core. They are currently 15th in fantasy points allowed for QBs.

Running Game Thoughts: The probable loss of Brian Westbrook this week may affect the pass more than the run. Correll Buckhalter is a physical but not exceptional fill in but obviously not as well rounded as Westbrook. The Eagles should still be able to move the ball on the ground against the 49ers with their good offensive line. Keep an eye on Sunday morning whether or not Westbrook will play because it looks like another game time decision.

The 49ers rush defense is 25th for RB fantasy points allowed. They dropped five spots following Kevin Faulk punching in two TDs. As a whole the Pats hit them for 143 yards and two TDs rushing. While their D-line made progress in the pass rush they took a step back stopping the run. Patrick “what you talkin bout” Willis amassed an eye popping 14 solo tackles with 4 assists and a sack. What could this man do with a defensive line in front of him? Scary.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 250 yds passing/2 TD/1 INT
DeSean Jackson: 80 yds/1 TD
Kevin Curtis: 55 yds
Reggie Brown: 55 yds
L.J. Smith: 40 yds
Correll Buckhalter: 75 yds/1 TD

J.T. O’Sullivan/Isaac Bruce/Bryant Johnson/Arnaz Battle
Frank Gore (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Redskins
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Redskins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.8

Passing Game Thoughts: J.T. O’Sullivan has been a inconsistent yardage wise thus far playing well every other week. He didn’t have much yardage last week but threw for three TDs. Isaac Bruce has proved me wrong and has been their best WR this year. He has moved up to 13th in the league in WR fantasy points scored. Overall San Francisco is 12th in WR points scored and J.T. O’Sullivan is performing beyond anyone’s expectations at 8th in points scored.

If I were an O’Sullivan owner this game would scare me. The 49ers give up sacks by the bakers dozen and the Eagles have the best recipe for blitzing in the league. A good day will mean that J.T. is not on the inactive list next Wednesday and I’m only half joking here. He may really take a beating in this game and “Mad Martz” needs to dial down his confidence and get the ball out quick. Gore has been good as a receiver and should be involved in some hot routes but will also often have to stay in to block with Vernon Davis.

Running Game Thoughts: Gore is 2nd in the league right now and is playing like the 2007 version of Brian Westbrook. He doesn’t always get a 100 yards rushing but his total yardage in rushing and receiving is always there. This week will be his biggest test against Philly’s D. I expect his production will need to come through the air if he is to have another Gore type day.

The Eagles were number one against the run until they met Clinton Portis last week. Portis must have had his Jim Brown 60’s outfit on during the post game interview. While Gore is just as capable as Portis he doesn’t have the commitment to the run that Washington has and his line is not as good. The Eagles problem is whether to focus on the run or the pass. They will try to solve both problems by confusing O’Sullivan with real and fake blitz schemes.

Projections:
J.T. O’Sullivan: 180 yds passing/1 TD/2 INT
Isaac Bruce: 75 yds
Bryant Johnson: 40 yds
Arnaz Battle: 35 yds
Frank Gore: 65 yds rushing/35 yds receiving/2 TD

Packers @ Seahawks (Eakin)
Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings/Donald Driver/Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs:
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.8

Passing Game Thoughts: When you replace an iron man like Favre you have little choice but to play through pain, which Rodgers did admirably last week. His Sprained shoulder will improve this week and he is certain to start in Seattle. He’s not certain to throw three TDs again but it’s a high possibility given Seattle’s defensive woes this year. Going forward you have to consider him a top seven or better fantasy QB. Greg Jennings has proven last year was no fluke and is an elite deep threat. Donald Driver is still a solid WR2 option and they seemingly have a new young promising player step up every week with the likes of James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and now TE Tory Humphrey. The future is bright in Green Bay.

Seattle can’t blame their trip behind the wood shed against the Giants on the lack of healthy WRs. They may still be able to blame it on the Giants being far and away the best team on the planet though. They will not catch division leading Arizona this year unless they shore up their defense. They are struggling to get pressure on the passer with 8 of their 11 sacks this year all coming in one game against the 49ers. Mike Holmgren is has indicated that some possible scheme and personnel changes are being discussed to right the ship. It’s unclear what those may entail at this point but they have been susceptible to big plays when their blitzing doesn’t work out. That would indicate the safeties and defensive ends not getting their jobs done.

Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy Hall of Famer Ryan Grant hasn’t had his breakout yet but it’s coming. He is still getting almost all the carries and his rush average keeps getting better. He’s not scoring TDs yet but one big day with 2-3 TDs and everyone’s going to back in his painted wagon. I like the idea of trading for him now because as the weather cools RBs will dominate the fantasy landscape even more and he is just now getting back to speed. He’ll never be cheaper than he is now. Last week he rushed for 83 yards in 18 carries but had no TDs. Scoring can be fickle and this is one of those times. It will come.

I’ve patted myself on the back enough to form some light bruising so to be fair, I pumped up Seattle’s LB core last week and they had an awful day failing to get pressure and missing tackles against the Giants to the tune of 44 points. Both sides (Ryan Grant vs. Lofa Tatupu) have something to prove so I expect a good fight. The Packers passing threat should leave enough room for Grant to have some success on the ground.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 240 yds/2 TD
Greg Jennings: 85 receiving/ 1 TD
Donald Driver: 65 receiving
Donald Lee: 30 receiving
Ryan Grant: 105 yds/15 rec/2 TD

Matt Hasselbeck/Bobby Engram/Billy McMullen/John Carlson
Julius Jones (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: Buccaneers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A

Passing Game Thoughts: The return of QB Matt Hasselbeck’s receiving core didn’t exactly go as planned in their 44-6 throttling by the Giants. Deion Branch is already back on the injured list with a bruised heel. Bobby Engram did have a solid 7 catch day in his debut and should be a productive WR for the rest of the year. Hopefully you got him off waivers as suggested. I expect Billy McMullen will fill in for Branch again as he was the most productive street baller they signed this year. They released Courtney Taylor and resigned the Jordan Kent, the son of U of Oregon’s basketball coach Ernie Kent. Jordan seemed promising in the preseason being a skilled basketball player that is tall and runs a 4.4 40. He is still a project at this point but can be an occasional deep threat. Hasselbeck suffered a bruised knee in the game and left but is practicing and expected to play as of Wednesday night. Seattle has been inconsistent in utilizing TE John Carlson and I’m not sure why they don’t make a better effort.

Green Bay is missing some of their top defensive playmakers in CB AL Harris and D-lineman Cullen Jenkins. Charles Woodson is having a great year but Will Blackmon and Tramond Williams struggled to cover Roddy White last week. Woodson is now nursing a toe injury in this “the year of the toe”. He played with it last week so he should be fine to play again. With the injuries the Packers went from a top pass defense to 19th in QB fantasy points allowed.

Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones had a poor outing because the Seahawks were forced to pass from behind all day but he still ran hard in the loss despite little fantasy relevance. He should return to form against the struggling Packer unit. In Each of the two weeks prior he had scored over 20 FPTs. One time starter Maurice Morris is practicing in full and expected to make his return this week. It remains to be seen how much he will cut in to Jones carries.

Injuries have hit GB pretty hard and are partially to blame for their poor play. A.J. Hawk is slowed by a groin and was a game time decision but played last week. Safety Atari Bigby did miss and is an important piece to their defensive puzzle. Backup Aaron Rouse is also out. The Packers are very shallow at Defensive tackle and safety right now which causes them to be winded in the second half. Seattle doesn’t really have the physical rushing attack to take advantage of that unless they utilize T.J Duckett.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 200 yds/1 TD
Bobby Engram: 80 yds/1 TD
Billy McMullen: 50 yds
John Carlson: 40 yds/1 TD
Julius Jones: 90 yds/ 10 rec/1 TD

Patriots @ Chargers (Eakin)
Matt Cassel/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson
Sammy Morris/Kevin Faulk /Lawrence Maroney (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A

Passing Game Thoughts: As called out upon in last week’s column, the Patriots were able to hook up on a long scoring pass to Randy Moss and he is temporarily back on the fantasy map. Matt Cassel played well throwing for over 259 yards a TD but also had two INTs. In watching the game he completed several key third down passes in the clutch to ice a close game. Don’t look now but the Patriots are 3-1 with a young QB gaining confidence.

The Dolphins didn’t put up a lot of points against Chargers but Dolphin QB Chad Pennington was very efficient against them passing for 228 yards one TD and no turnovers. The Chargers registered one sack but Pennington was comfortable in the pocket and able to pick them apart. They really need a pass rush to improve. Their talented defensive backs are not to blame entirely for being the league’s worst rank in QB fantasy points allowed. The Chargers have been awful covering TEs this year so perhaps Ben Watson is a player to keep your eye on.

Running Game Thoughts: The lucky lottery winner is...Kevin Faulk. Step right up to get your prize for this week’s most relevant Patriot RB. We’ll announce next week’s winner on the following Friday as well. Despite Kevin Faulk’s two TDs, Sammy Morris is still the best fantasy play. He gets the most carries and the most yards at this point. Lamont Jordan is banged up with a bad calf. Lawrence Maroney played bad shoulder and all but continues to disappoint.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 240 yds/2 TD
Randy Moss: 85 receiving/ 1 TD
Wes Welker: 75 receiving/1 TD
Ben Watson: 30 receiving
Sammie Morris: 55 yds/1 TD
Kevin Faulk: 35 yds/25 rec
Lawrence Maroney: 40 yds

Phillip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Craig Davis/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 12.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Quietly Vincent Jackson is outperforming Chris Chambers in every category except scoring. He will be relied upon even more this week with the loss of Chambers to an ankle sprain. The Chargers pass attack was completely shut down last week by the suddenly resurgent Dolphins. Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates need to step up. Gates should never be held to one catch for 12 yards. The Chargers didn’t get their RBs involved out of the backfield as they had been doing previously. They should get back to that especially if Chambers is out. They will be forced to dink and dunk their way down the field.

The Patriots are 8th in QB fantasy points allowed so it’s going to be a tough day for Rivers. Their season is in danger at (2-3) and facing a savvy New England team. The critical matchup in this game is the Patriot LBs against the Charger underneath routes. If they can shut down the RBs and Antonio Gates then they should come out on top. Because of this I don’t expect them to blitz much but rather sit in a shallow flood zone.

Running Game Thoughts: It appears LaDainian Tomlinson is just going to continue to gut it out with a bad toe all year. He doesn’t have the balance and cut ability without his big toe to push off on. I brought up the serious nature of these toe injuries and how it even ended great player’s careers like Eddie George. If the Chargers were winning they could sit him down a week or two until he is right but their season is in some trouble right now and I still think Darren Sproles should be called upon a little more.

The Patriots held Gore in check on the ground last week but he broke loose for a 30 yard TD reception that saved his day. They will need to do better against the Chargers who are one of the best in the league at utilizing RBs with the pass.

Projections:
Phillip Rivers: 225 yds/2 TD
Vincent Jackson: 80 yds/1 TD
Craig Davis: 40 yds
Antonio Gates: 40 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 70 yds/10 rec/1 TD
Darren Sproles: 30 yds/30 rec

Bengals @ Jets (Marcoccio)
Carson Palmer/Chad Ocho Cinco/TJ Houshmanzadeh/Chris Henry/Ben Utecht
Chris Perry/Cedric Benson (vs. NYJ)
NYJ - FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: 22.4
NYJ - FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: 22.3
NYJ - FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: 9.3
NYJ - FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 23.7

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bengals pass offense is coming around a little and Carson Palmer overcame his elbow troubles that kept him sidelined in Week 4 to start and play semi-effectively against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. Palmer threw for 217 yards and 2 TDs in Dallas but wasn’t real sharp as he missed some open targets. TJ Houshmandzadeh was the recipient on both TD passes and has been the main target for the Bengals all season (and most of last season as well). Chad Ocho Cinco has been an afterthought for the most part. Perhaps he may be slowed more by his shoulder injury than he has let on or perhaps Palmer just doesn’t like him – he wouldn’t be the only one. Chris Henry was limited in his first week back from suspension but should start to take on a bigger role as he gets his game legs back. Off-season sleeper Ben Utecht has apparently hit the snooze button, but perhaps he finally gets out of bed this week as the Jets have covered opposing TEs poorly.

The Jets’ defense hasn’t been very good against the pass, but in their defense’s defense (confused?) most of Arizona’s offense in Week 4 came after the game was out of reach. They have allowed opposing QBs to complete 68.2% of their passes for 1,060 yards and 7 TDs in four games. SS Erik Smith will sit this one out after popping Anquan Bolding helmet to helmet and Magini has been tight lipped about his replacement. OLB Bryan Thomas (4 sacks) has surpassed last season’s sack total after only four games and, with Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis, has given the Jets a pretty fierce pass rush (13 sacks). Carson Palmer could be under some pressure on Sunday, but by now he should be used to that.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Perry has fumbled five time in five games and is likely hearing Cedric Benson’s heavy footsteps behind him. Neither back looked particularly good against Dallas, but Perry did have a nice touchdown run called back by a pretty suspect holding call on Houshmandzadeh that was not even near the play. The talk around town (is the internet a town?) is that Benson will get more involved this week.

The Jets’ run defense has been much improved with the addition of NT Kris Jenkins and the play of second year ILB David Harris. The FF Points Allowed to RBs listed above is high, but should be examined a little closer to get the full picture. In Week 2 Tomlinson ran a little better and scored twice after Jenkins left the game with back spasms and in Week 4 the Cardinals scored three rushing TDs in the second half when the Jets’ defense slacked off a little after the team accumulated what appeared to be an insurmountable first half lead.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Chad Ocho Cinco: 35 yds receiving
Ben Utecht: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Chris Perry: 55 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving
Cedric Benson: 35 yards rushing, 1 TD

Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Chansi Stuckey/Dustin Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. CIN)
CIN - FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: 17.3
CIN - FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: 14.6
CIN - FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: 6.6
CIN - FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 23.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre who many feel (unfairly in my opinion) is an attention grabbing #^@*%, certainly grabbed some attention in Week 4 when he tossed 6 TDs in a win over Arizona. I think it’s safe to say he and Laveranues Coles are finally on the same page as Coles grabbed three of those TD tosses. I’m guessing while Chad Pennington may still be a very good friend of LC’s, he wouldn’t want to trade places with Greg Camarillo if he had the chance right now. Chansi Stuckey was silent against Arizona after a great three week start, but may be heard from again at any time, as the #3 WR in a Favre offense always has some value. This could be a very consistently dangerous passing offense as the season progresses as Favre looks sharp and the Jets have some great weapons in Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller and those already mentioned.

Statistically the Bengals pass defense has been fairly decent through 5 games (838 yards and 6 TDs), but as I have said before it has a lot to do with teams running at will on a team that can’t stop the run. As the numbers above show there have been much better match up’s to exploit for fantasy QBs and pass catchers so far this season, however I wouldn’t hesitate to start Brett and his boys this week. The Jet WRs are tough match ups for the Bengals’ inexperienced CBs and TE Dutsin Keller’s speed and size will make a tough assignment for Cinncy’s line backers or safeties which aren’t all that good.

Running Game Thoughts: Surprisingly Leon Washington got the start last game, but it was likely due more to the play that was called rather than a promotion over Thomas Jones. However, the Jets seem determined to change their identity on offense to a heavy passing scheme now that Favre has become more acclimated to the playbook and his targets and Washington is a better fit for such an offense. I’d still think of Jones as the starter and the back that will be on the field when tough yards are needed but be aware that Jones could see his role decreasing as the season progresses. Jones’ owners should also be made aware that Jesse Chatham who ran successfully in Miami last season returns from his four game suspension for testing positive for a masking agent and could work his way into the game plan.

The Bengals are the 31st ranked defense against the run (it’s a tip that there are only 32 teams…) and have allowed 855 yards rushing and 6 TDs on the ground in five games. While the Bengals obviously cannot stop the run, they may catch a little break if the Jet coaching staff continues under the philosophy that Brett is their new toy that must be played with.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 285 yds passing 2 TDs / 1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery : 85 yds receiving
Chansi Stuckey: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dustin Keller: 35 yds receiving
Leon Washington: 65 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 65 yds rushing. 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Rams @ Redskins (Marcoccio)
WAS - FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: 17.9
WAS - FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: 20.5
WAS - FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: 4.5
WAS - FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 15.0
Marc Bulger/Tory Holt/Drew Bennett/Joe Klopfenstein
Stephen Jackson (vs. PHI)

Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback Marc Bulger regains his starting gig after a one week benching by ex-coach Scott Linehan. Al Saunders the Rams new offensive coordinator has a long history of success at the NFL but has done very little with the Rams thus far whether it be because of the still unhealthy o-line or lack of a second WR. New HC Jim Haslett has gone out of his way to state that Pro-Bowler Tory Holt needs to be more involved in the offense, but I’m guessing the old regime wasn’t purposely leaving him out of their plans during their first four contests. Randy McMichael is lost for the year and the underachieving second year player Joe Klopfenstein will take his place in the line-up. Rookie and first WR taken in the NFL draft Donnie Avery finds himself on the field more with the injuries sustained by the WR unit and took a toss to the house two weeks ago. This could be a big game for him if the offense finally clicks.

Washington’s pass defense is ranked 24th in the league having allowed 1,088 yards and 6 TDs in the first five weeks. They have not generated much of a pass rush with Jason Taylor hurting, only six sacks in five games. Surprisingly Washington allows a high amount of points to WRs despite having talented young CBs in Carlos Rodgers, Fred Smoot, and Shawn Springs (although Smoot and Springs have missed some time). The lack of pass rush and poor CB play may finally allow the Rams passing game to get on track this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson has been semi-disappointing in 2008 as many expected a big bounce back year after an injury plagued 2007. He has only 269 yards and 1 TD on the ground in four games but has grabbed 20 balls for another 211 yards so he has been useful to his owners at least. The Saunders system has produced its share of top running backs including Priest Holmes and Clinton Portis, so it’s too soon to give up on Jackson yet and his line is starting to get a little healthier each week.

The Skins have been extremely difficult to run on. They have allowed only 427 yards and three rushing TDs on the season – and one was to QB Eli Manning. Only 8 teams in the NFL have been worse match ups for opposing fantasy RBs this season, so owners should be happy with only mediocre production from Jackson this week.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs/ 1 INT
Tory Holt: 110 yds receiving, 1 TD
Donnie Avery: 45 yds receiving
Joe Klopfenstein: 10 yds receiving
Stephen Jackson: 65 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving, 1 TD

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. StL)
StL - FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: 25.1
StL - FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: 27.4
StL - FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: 4.2
StL - FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 31.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell ran an efficient offense last week but likely had his fantasy owners a little miffed if they started him after weeks of looking good on their bench. He failed to throw a TD for the first time this season, as it was WR Antwaan Randle-El who threw the only Washington TD pass on the day. Santana Moss also caused some fantasy outrage as the Eagles game-planned to take him out of the Redskin offense and he ended up with no catches on the day (of course this stinker comes right after I stated he has finally shed the inconsistent label in last weeks piece). On the other side of the spectrum Chris Cooley scored his first TD on the season to the relief of his fantasy owners across the land (which includes Jason Campbell who ironically did not throw it to him).

So what does a team with the worst defense in the NFL do when they fire their Head Coach? Hire their Defensive Coordinator to replace him of course. That decision is almost as comical as the one where a team that can not stop opposing WRs decides that cutting their best CB (Fakhir Brown) without really giving any reason for doing so would be a wise move. Thank goodness neither presidential candidate answered “Jay Zymunt” (Rams GM and VP) when asked by Tom Bokaw who they would appoint as Treasury Secretary should they be elected. As the numbers above indicate there is no reason to bench any player facing the Rams defense, ever.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week I mentioned that because he was facing the tough Philadelphia defense that Clinton Portis may not see his usual steady production. Well on one level I was right, as Portis was not steady – in fact he was much closer to spectacular. He rushed for 145 yards and a TD against the No 2 rushing defense in the league. This week he gets one of the worst run defenses in the league when St. Louis comes to town.

The Rams give up 166 yards per game on the ground (that was not a typo) and have allowed 7 rushing TDs in 4 games. They are tied with the Chiefs as the best defense to start your fantasy RB against, allowing an absurd 31.9 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs in standard scoring leagues. Ladell Betts may not be a bad pickup this week for teams desperate at RB.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 245 yds passing, 1 TD
Santana Moss: 85 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 65 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Clinton Portis: 165 yards rushing, 2 TDs / 15 yards receiving

Ravens @ Colts (Dhawan)
Joe Flacco/Derrick Mason/Mark Clayton/Demetrius Williams/Todd Heap
Willis McGahee/LeRon McClain/Ray Rice (vs. IND)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -38.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -46.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -14.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +46.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie QB Joe Flacco has impressed rookie John Harbaugh enough to be named the starter for the rest of the season. This will provide a great learning curve and opportunity for the player with the comfort blanket of the league’s number-one rated defense and smash mouth running game. He continues to grow and gain confidence in his skill set. On MNF versus the Steelers, he used the max protection 2-man routes to find Derrick Mason, and against the Titans last week he finally got TE Todd Heap and WR Mark Clayton into the action. He should find room against the Indy Cover2. OC Cam Cameron may take a page from Denver coach Mike Shanahan’s book: last week, Shanahan rolled QB Jay Cutler out of the pocket to slide the Tampa Bay zone coverage and find openings for his receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: The dream of Willis McGahee exploding under the direction of OC Cam Cameron has not come to fruition. Instead, fullback and bulldozer LeRon McClain continues to be a force, running with power, purpose, and grit [much like his alma mater Crimson Tide]. McGahee has split carries, and the big offensive line has re-established itself into a punishing unit capable of wearing out defenses. Both runners will find success this week, much as the Jags did in week3. Expect great numbers for McClain this week.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 215 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Derrick Mason: 70 rec/1 TD
Mark Clayton: 50 rec
Demetrius Williams: 30 rec
Todd Heap: 55 rec
Willis McGahee: 70 rush
LeRon McClain: 85 rush/2 TDs

Peyton Manning/ Marvin Harrison/ Reggie Wayne/ Anthony Gonzalez/ Dallas Clark/ Tom Santi
Joseph Addai/ Dominic Rhodes (vs. BAL)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -37.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -51.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -14.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -48.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: it might be shocking to know that ESPN insiders have this week raised the topic of the thinning patience of Peyton Manning’s fantasy owners. Indeed, the uberstud QB has not exactly played at his normal level, but he is still alive and in the lineup [at least one luxury for those who drafted him in the first round, as did this author]. In this match up last season, the Ravens were coming off an emotional last second loss to the then undefeated Patriots, marred by questionable calls late in the game. They were evidently off their game when Manning bombarded them for 4 TDs in young WR Anthony Gonzalez’s breakout game [134 yards and 2 TDs]. Their previous game before that was a 15-6 masterpiece in the 2006 divisional round of the playoffs, highlighted by S Ed Reed’s 2 INTs [with nearly 2 more] and a true fan’s delight of a chess match between Manning and MLB Ray Lewis as they counteracted each other’s play calls before the snap. Both teams are 2-2, and need this win to establish them in the AFC. Look for Manning to play well, but this is the number1 defense in the league.

Running Game Thoughts: The offensive line is slowly regaining health and production. Joseph Addai has posted moderate stats thus far, and will be hard pressed to run on this unit. His value this week will be in PPR leagues and in the goal line area when Manning directs scoring drives.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 350 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Marvin Harrison: 40 rec
Reggie Wayne: 120 rec/ 1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 50 rec
Dallas Clark: 70 rec/1 TD
Tom Santi: 30 rec
Joseph Addai: 40 rush/40 rec/1 TD
Dominic Rhodes: 20 rush

Panthers @ Buccaneers (Dhawan)
Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad/ D.J. Hackett/ Dwayne Jarrett/ Dante Rosario
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (vs. TB)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +10.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -44.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -17.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: John Fox loves his rejuvenated offense. Despite missing both starting tackles last week, his run game was stellar, and the pass game rolled. WR Muhsin Muhammad grabbed another TD, and Delhomme spread the ball around like a Vegas blackjack dealer. Delhomme’s performance even sparked one media writer to ask why Dolphins QB Chad Pennington does not seek elective Tommy John surgery. This week will be a tough test. CB Ronde Barber has had trouble with WR Steve Smith in the past, so expect a lot of safety coverage to limit the home run. Delhomme may not roll the pocket like Denver did last week, trying to wiggle holes out of the lockdown disciplined defenders in the Tampa2. Playing with patience or the lead will be the key; if not, mistakes may be the flavor of the day.

Running Game Thoughts: First Ronnie Brown, then Larry Johnson, now DeAngelo Williams. Every week there is a new running back trying to post a season high in fantasy points. Williams looked awesome against a defense that is far from a KC masterpiece. Stewart owners should not fret, however, as most of the damage was on longer runs outside the red zone. Both players will continue a time share for yards and TDs.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 255 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Steve Smith: 75 rec/1TD
D.J. Hackett: 20 rec
Muhsin Muhammad: 75 rec
Dwayne Jarrett: 20 rec
Dante Rosario: 30 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 80 rush/1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 60 rush/1 TD

Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Antonio Bryant//Ike Hilliard/Michael Clayton
Earnest Graham/Warrick Dunn (vs. CAR)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -28.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -34.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +3.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -33.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: This week of practice will determine whether Brian Griese will continue to start after leaving last week’s contest with a shoulder injury, or if fellow QBAARP member, Jeff Garcia, will get the nod for HC Jon Gruden once again. The pass game has suffered with the loss of WR Joey Galloway, as there is no deep threat to stretch the field and loosen opposing secondaries. This has led to a paltry yards per attempt with dink-and-dunk passing as the only effective means of moving the chains. Speedy rookie WR Dexter Jackson has been unable to excel with the loss of Galloway, so look for Coach Gruden to get him more chances on the deep ball. Hilliard remains a PPR play, with Bryant slowly becoming a reliable WR3.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week’s 10 carries were tied for a season low for RB Earnest Graham. Has produced well 4 of 5 games, with a lone spot on his record a tough outing versus the stingy Bears (a day on which Griese threw for 400 yards). Carolina sports a tough rush defense, but this divisional showdown will be won in the trenches. Running Graham with commitment will be the only way of keeping DE Julius Peppers from teeing off on the QBs.

Projections:
Brian Griese: 215 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Joey Galloway: out
Ike Hilliard: 70 rec
Michael Clayton: 40 rec
Antonio Bryant: 80 rec
Earnest Graham: 85 rush/1 TD
Warrick Dunn: 50 rush

Bears @ Falcons (Dhawan)
Kyle Orton/ Marty Booker/ Rashied Davis/ Devin Hester/ Brandon Lloyd/ Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen
Matt Forte/ Kevin Jones (vs. ATL)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +12.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +18.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +25.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: 8.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Well, how many fantasy players out there would have placed Kyle Orton among the top TD passers 6 weeks into the 2008 season? It is true, scouts honor. The seemly game manager has broken out of his comfort zone shell and started living a little, making precise downfield throws to receivers for big gains. Orton is using a growing confidence in himself and a staunch defense to take chances and score points. KR/PR/WR Devin Hester caught a second TD last week, and WR Marty Booker highlighted himself with a sensational reach around the defender grab. Look for Orton to continue his newfound style versus a soft Falcons secondary; watch out for DE John Abraham who has a league leading 7 sacks due to an efficient line rotation.

Running Game Thoughts: Unfortunately, this is the unit that has suffered with Orton’s new success. Rookie Matt Forte was hot to start the season, blending perfectly with the bruising defense; now, he has seen his production tail off from 92 to 89 to 43 to just 36 yards last week (luckily PPR players are still averaging 5 receptions from him over the past 3 weeks). Last Sunday, Packers HB Ryan Grant used this defense to regain his step and posted a nice 86 yards with a 4.6YPC. Forte will have a great stat opportunity; be weary of Orton and the passing game continuing to develop.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 275 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Marty Booker: 50 rec
Rashied Davis: 50 rec/1TD
Devin Hester: 55 rec/1TD
Brandon Lloyd: out
Desmond Clark: 20 rec
Greg Olsen: 70 rec
Matt Forte: 70 rush/30 rec/1TD

Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/ Laurent Robinson
Michael Turner/ Jerious Norwood (vs. CHI)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -9.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -20.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -23.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Still don’t believe the rookie was the right choice for the starter? Boy, owner Arthur Blank and the Atlanta faithful can finally smile about something. GM and President Thomas Dimitroff has come over from the Patriots and started a special recipe in Hotlanta. QB Matt Ryan has vindicated the owner of the Mike Vick saga, and free agent runner Michael Turner punishes defenses and balances the offense. WR Roddy White is fast becoming a star, building great rapport with Ryan in a short month. All that’s left for fantasy owners is for WRs Laurent Robinson and Harry Douglas to get into the act. This will be the toughest defense Ryan has faced, but his run game has supported him best at home. Be cautious with expectations---although he has twice before exceeded expectations this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Power, speed, purpose and ferocity: HB Michael Turner is running with all of them this young season. He has turned a 2007 weakness into a 2008 strength for this ball club. He leads the league in rushing yards and is tied for the lead in rushing TDs. Can he produce against the stingy Bears? Recall a breakout player last year in his first opportunity versus the vaunted Bears defense? He wears purple shirts and is considered the best pure running back in the league (HINT: Adrian Peterson, 224 yards, 3 TDs at Chicago last season)? Turner has been ‘the Burner’ at home this season, with 325 yards and 5 TDs in his two home contests. He will need to be effective to keep the pressure of young Matt Ryan. Expect moderate success with a chance to break a long one and run over defenders en route to a TD.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Roddy White: 80 rec/1 TD
Michael Jenkins: 70 rec
Laurent Robinson: 30 rec
Michael Turner: 110 rush/20 rec/1 TD
Jerious Norwood: 55 rush

Raiders @ Saints (Dhawan)
JaMarcus Russell/ Javon Walker/ Johnnie Lee Higgins/ Ashley Lelie/ Zach Miller
Darren McFadden Justin Fargas/Michael Bush (vs. NO)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +26.6
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -18.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: JaMarcus Russell has quietly been an effective passer in his first full season as the starter. He has a respectable 85 QB Rating, with 4 TDs and only 1 INT (with1 rushing TD). New HC Tom Cable knows the trenches, but he will probably allow his young QB some passing attempts versus a bad New Orleans secondary minus starter Tracy Porter (lost for the season after last week’s dislocated wrist). Russell needs to try to wind it up deep, using his big arm to move the chains with speedsters Higgins and Lelie. Near the red zone, watch his favorite and reliable tight end Zach Miller post a TD.

Running Game Thoughts: Who will start and play at running back for the Raiders this week? Inquiring minds want to know. New HC Tom Cable has this offensive line working well, with some nice output this first quarter of the season. McFadden has had a breakout game (160yards and a TD vs. KC), but is nursing a toe injury that has hampered his effectiveness (see LaDainian Tomlinson in SD). Justin Fargas returns to the lineup this week off an abdominal strain that sidelined him for a few weeks, while big Michael Bush continues to tote his carries into nice fantasy contributions (averaging 65 rush yards his past 3 games, with 80 receiving yards on 7 receptions last game). In a shocking development, the Saints defense minus DT Sedrick Ellis clamped Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson to just 32yards on MNF. Can they rise to occasion again, or will the Raiders run with authority? Expect a mixture of both, with lowered expectations of DMC.

Projections:
Russell: 240 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Walker: 30 rec
Higgins: 80 rec/1 TD
Lelie: 40 rec
Miller: 65 rec/1TD
McFadden: 50 rush/25 rec
Fargas: 50 rush
Bush: 60 rush/40 rec/1 TD

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/David Patten/Robert Meachem/ Jeremy Shockey/Billy Miller
Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister (vs. OAK)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +5.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +43.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +19.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Death, taxes, and Drew Brees posting a 300-yard game: you can set your watch by these things. Brees had another stellar performance with a depleted receiving unit, but ended up with a head scratching loss nonetheless. The cover corners of Oakland will test these pass catchers, but that won’t bother Brees, so count on him to rack up another huge day as a fantasy team foundation. Devery Henderson is confident in his hands again, and caught 4 balls for 100 and TD last week, with Lance Moore looking to revert back to his 100-yards and 2-TD stat line of 2 weeks ago. Good news for owners of WR Marques Colston (thumb) and TE Jeremy Shockey (sports hernia), who both practiced lightly this week and may try to play in this contest; more than likely, look for a return next week. TE Billy Miller had a long catch last week.

Running Game Thoughts: There was obviously little running room to be had last week versus the stout Vikings rush defense. Deuce McAllister saw little action, but hopes to be a big part this week after a great outing 2 weeks ago (75 yards, 1 TD). Reggie Bush continues to electrify in his accessory role, posting 2 PR TDs with his customary 60 yards receiving and lowly 20 yards rushing. The Raiders sport very athletic and fast linebackers, so finding the edge by run or pass may end up difficult for Bush this week.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 335 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: questionable
Devery Henderson: 90 rec
David Patten: 40 rec
Robert Meachem: 70 rec
Billy Miller: 50rec
Reggie Bush: 30 rush/50 rec
Deuce McAllister: 60 rush/1 TD

Dolphins @ Texans (Dhawan)
Chad Pennington/Ted Ginn/Greg Camarillo/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano/David Martin
Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams (vs. HOU)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +17.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -2.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +40.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +21.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Jettisoned by the Jets, QB Chad Pennington quickly found a home in Miami, and has since directed an outstanding turnaround. He is completing 67% of his passes with a 94 QB Rating and only 1 INT (the team’s lone turnover). He will have plenty of room to find his favorite targets this week. TE Anthony Fasano has been a steady underneath threat, while WR Greg Camarillo continues to build chemistry and confidence with his Wes Welker-like play. Young WR Ted Ginn has yet to hit the home run, but his PPR value is growing (12 receptions the past 2 games).

Running Game Thoughts: After the ‘Wild Fin’ formation dismantled the Patriots, viewers felt it had run its course as a flashy neat trick play. Wrong. The Chargers were privy to another maul job by the rebuilt offensive line and twin TE run approach of new HC Tony Sparano. This team has stressed execution and ball security, and it shows up on game day with efficient and effective results. Rookie T Jake Long and second year C Samson Satele have teamed with young veteran T Vernon Carey to form a line that acts as punishers and technicians (see the maneuvers used to completely neutralize Patriots defensive linemen Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, and Ty Warren). Ronnie Brown is showing burst normally seen in post-ACL repair year2. Ricky Williams continues to spell Brown effectively (he averages 12 carries a game). Expect a great 1-2 punch this week against the soft Texans rush defense.

Projections:
Pennington: 245/1 TD/0 INT
Ginn: 60rec
Camarillo: 70rec/1 TD
Bess: 30rec
Fasano: 50rec
Martin: 20rec
Brown: 100 rush/1TD
Williams: 50 rush/1TD

Matt Schaub/Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Andre Davis/Owen Daniels
Steve Slaton/Ahman Green (vs. MIA)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +39.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -47.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -35.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: You truly felt the letdown of the Texans last week as Sage Rosenfels lofted the closing seconds INT and the game was lost. Hosting their first home game due to Hurricane Ike, the crowd was scintillating and the players rode that excitement to a 27-10 lead. Rosenfels played great for 56minutes, finding WR Andre Johnson to the tune of 130 yards and a TD. Matt Schaub continues to recover from a viral illness that sidelined him last week, so keep an eye for the starter announcement. Either QB should post moderate numbers against the rugged Dolphins defense which shutdown Chargers QB Philip Rivers last week.

Running Game Thoughts: After seasons of mediocrity, the Texans have found a running game. Rookie HB Steve Slaton has burst onto the scene with running and receiving. He nearly sealed the win last week with a 40yard 4th quarter scamper and TD to finish with 90 yards and 2 TDs. He continues to work behind the work in progress zone blocking scheme of line coach Alex Gibbs. Rookie T Duane Brown is making strides in the run game, and played solidly most of the time in the pass game versus speedy DE Dwight Freeney (although his lone lapse resulted in heavy pressure and subsequent run and fumble of Rosenfels). Slaton should remain hot this week. Don’t rub your eyes, Ahman Green is indeed healthy and contributing (12 carries and 4.0YPC last week).

Projections:
Matt Schaub/Sage Rosenfels: 250 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Andre Johnson: 80 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 70 rec
Andre Davis: 30 rec
Owen Daniels: 40 rec
Steve Slaton: 85 rush/30 rec/1TD
Ahman Green: 40 rush

Lions vs. Vikings (Mack)
Dan Orlovsky / Calvin Johnson / Roy Williams / Shaun McDonald
Kevin Smith / Rudi Johnson
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 8.6/9.0/3.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.0

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions’ passing game is a complete mess, and the entire team will soon begin to reclaim its rightful reputation as the national bunch line on many late night talk shows. Receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson entered the season with high hopes, but those visions of possibly duplicating the productivity of other dynamic receiving duos in the league have vanished before our eyes. Even with two pretty good receivers, Detroit has one of the most inept offenses in the league. Johnson has at least shown signs of coming to life, especially in the Green Bay game in week 2; Williams runs his mouth better than he runs pass patterns. As a result, he’s quickly proving that he’s not as good as he thinks he is, and perhaps more importantly, not as good as we as fantasy players thought he was.

Making matters worse for the Lions, starting QB Jon Kitna has experienced back spasms all week and has practiced little. This ailment troubled him enough during last week’s game that he sat out the second half. If he’s limited or doesn’t play, Dan Orlovsky could get his first significant playing time in the NFL. But he’s nursing ankle and knee ailments himself. If neither of them can go, that means second year pro Drew Stanton gets the start. More troubling than Kitna’s potential absence, however, is the relentless pressure Minnesota’s front four will put on whoever plays QB for the Lions. The Vikings have only eight sacks so far this season, but Detroit has allowed 16 sacks and with DEs Jared Allen and Ray Edwards poised to dominate Tackles Jeff Backus and George Foster, it will be a long afternoon for the Lions’ passing game. But for purposes of this article, and although it may be a bit early to make a definitive statement, I will say Kitna sits this week and Orlovsky gets his first start.

Running Game Thoughts: As bad as the passing game is in Detroit, it’s not hyperbole when I say the running game is worse. Almost everyone thought newcomer Rudi Johnson would get the start at running back last week as many media outlets suggested, but rookie Kevin Smith got the nod instead. It didn’t matter, as both were stuffed by the Bears’ defense. Now they face the league’s 3rd ranked run defense, and it will be a dire situation for Detroit. The Lions rank 31st in the NFL in rushing at 72 yards a game, so signs point to Detroit’s running game being a non-factor this week.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the struggles in the running game is the fact that teams are stifling the Lions’ run game by keeping only seven in the box. There has been no need to bring an extra defender down because the O-line has had its troubles run blocking, even going back to last year. So with teams neutralizing Detroit’s ground game with a base alignment and with the Lions’ ineffectiveness through the air, it spells doom across the board offensively for the Motor City Kitties. Stay as far away as you can from anything resembling a Detroit running back this week.

Projections:
Dan Orlovsky: 145 yards / 1 TDs / 3 INTs
Calvin Johnson: 50 yards rec. / 1 TD
Roy Williams: 40 yards rec.
Shaun McDonald: 35 yards rec.
Rudi Johnson: 40 yards rushing
Kevin Smith: 25 yards rushing

Gus Frerotte / Bernard Berrian / Bobby Wade / Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Chicago
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 26.6/10.6/7.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15

Passing Game Thoughts: The play of 15-year veteran Gus Frerotte has taken Minnesota’s passing game to another level. Some may have disagreed with the method by which incumbent Tavaris Jackson was benched, but no one can argue with the results. Granted, Frerotte won’t conjure memories of Fran Tarkenton for the fans in Minnesota, but Frerotte’s ability to find receivers down field has opened up the passing game in a way that hasn’t been seen in the Metrodome in the last year or so. The Lions have put very little pressure on the QB this season (only four sacks so far), so Frerotte will have all day to pick apart Detroit’s dreadful secondary.

Bernard Berrian has finally started to emerge as the deep threat the Vikings paid him $16 million in guaranteed coin to be. Even when Jackson was under center, the Vikings have attempted to throw the ball deep to Berrian every game. During the season’s first couple of games, the ball usually sailed over his head. Now he either has a chance to make the play or at least draw a pass interference. And with the Lions and their last-ranked defense coming to town, Berrian will certainly pick up where he left off on Monday night. Detroit has shown no evidence that they can contain any team, much less stop them. This will be Minnesota’s best offensive performance to date.

Running Game Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints did a terrific job bottling up Adrian Peterson last week to the tune of 32 yards on 21 carries. Peterson hasn’t had a 100 yard game since week 2, so the Vikings will make a concerted effort to get Peterson the ball early and often. Detroit should know this. Even if they do, they don’t have the personnel to do anything about it. Only two teams have a worse run defense in the league. They yield 180 yards per game on the ground, and with the way the Lions have played, who’s to say Peterson won’t have that by halftime?

This game will get ugly quickly. LT Bryant McKinnie returned from suspension last week and his presence against the Lions will only help to open things up more for AP and Chester Taylor. Detroit did a nice job limiting Chicago’s Matt Forte last week, but they will have no answer for Minnesota’s running game. To their credit, though, the Lions have started blitzing more in an effort to contain their opponents’ running game, but doing so leaves their suspect secondary vulnerable in the passing game, as evidenced by the Chicago game last week when QB Kyle Orton torched Detroit. So Detroit is in a classic Catch-22 situation, but either way, they won’t be able to stop the Vikings from moving the ball up and down the field all afternoon.

Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 275 yards / 2 TDs
Bernard Berrian: 145 yards rec. / 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 85 yards rec.
Visanthe Shiancoe: 50 yards rec. / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 165 yards rushing / 2 TDs
Chester Taylor: 45 yards rushing

Giants vs. Browns (Mack)
Eli Manning / Plaxico Burress / Amani Toomer / Steve Smith
Brandon Jacobs / Derrick Ward / Ahmad Bradshaw
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Dallas
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Dallas
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 15
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 7.6/8.3/3.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11.3

Passing Game Thoughts: The New York Giants take their #1 rated offense to the shores of Lake Erie to take on Cleveland. But something is amiss here. Outside of a week 4 victory against winless Cincinnati who played without QB Carson Palmer, the Browns have seemingly been unable to stop anybody. Yet they have the 15th ranked defense. Strange. Regardless, this game could become lopsided in a heartbeat, as the Giants continue to ride the momentum of their Super Bowl victory from last season. WR Plaxico Burress returns from a team-imposed suspension, so he will have a huge chip on his shoulder. Amani Toomer has quietly had a stellar career, and he continues to be a reliable target for Eli Manning. WR Steve Smith continues to improve and the Giants O-line has only given up five sacks.

This all reveals evidence of a potentially dominating performance by the Giants on Monday night. The Browns have the 10th-best pass defense according to the numbers, but that in no way is a true indicator of Cleveland’s ability. After Tony Romo thrashed them in week one, they battled Ben Roethlisberger in 50 mph winds in week two, followed by tilts against Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Cincy’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now the Browns get to battle a formidable opponent in an ideal environment, at home, on national television. So now we’ll see if their rather lofty defensive ranking is an accurate barometer or if it’s simply a by-product of their opponents.

Running Game Thoughts: The Giants field the best running attack in the league, averaging more than 181 yards per game. Brandon Jacobs uses his brute strength and deceptive agility to loosen up defenses, Derrick Ward spells Jacobs and utilizes his pass-catching ability and then Ahmad Bradshaw comes in during garbage time to break the heart of the opponent with a long run to seal the deal. It’s an awesome system the Giants employ and it’s worked to perfection so far. More than anything, the reason why the Giants have the best running game in the league—besides having one of the best and perhaps most underrated O-lines in the league—is they get ahead of their opponent so early that the running game is used to milk the clock and batter the opposition into submission.

Cleveland D-lineman Shaun Rogers has re-emerged as a dominating force in the middle, but his stamina, or lack thereof, continues to be a concern for the Browns’ coaching staff. This is the same concern that led Detroit to trade the Texas Longhorn product. But when Rogers is in the game—mentally and physically—he’s a load. The Giants will have to neutralize Rogers if they are to establish a running game, and there’s nothing New York has done so far this season that suggests they can’t. Don’t be surprised if The G Men rumble for 200 yards on the ground in this one.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 225 yards / 2 TD
Plaxico Burress: 125 yards / 2 TD
Amani Toomer: 65 yards
Steve Smith: 35 yards
Brandon Jacobs: 110 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Ward: 65 yards / 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw: 35 yards

Derek Anderson / Braylon Edwards / Donte’ Stallworth / Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: St. Louis
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Seattle
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.6/10.3/1.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11

Passing Game Thoughts: My, what a difference a year makes. This time last year we were left wide-eyed at the goings-on in Cleveland. The Browns’ offensive proficiency in 2007 came from nowhere, as Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow became must-start fantasy players overnight. Now we’re left wide-eyed for a completely different reason. Cleveland’s passing attack has been inept and quite frankly painful to watch. The O-line can’t block anybody, Anderson has been grossly inaccurate and the receivers can’t hold onto the ball. What gives?

Well, whatever is ailing the Browns offensively, playing the Super Bowl champs on national television is no way to cure their ills. These two teams played in game three of the preseason this year—the only time, we all know, where teams game plan for their opponent during training camp. And if that game was any indication of what’s to come this week, the Browns are in a world of trouble. The Giants beat Cleveland every way imaginable and even knocked out Anderson with a concussion. In order for Cleveland to deliver any fantasy points through the air against New York, their young and (supposedly) good offensive line MUST protect Anderson; their young and (supposedly) gifted receivers (Edwards and Winslow in particular) must hold onto the ball, and Anderson has to deliver accurate passes. There’s a chance Donte’ Stallworth escapes from the Witness Protection Program he’s enjoyed all season to play for the first time as a Brown. His ability to stretch the field (if he doesn’t pull a hammy in the process) is critical to Cleveland’s aerial success, but he must get and remain healthy. Kellen Winslow is reportedly battling an injury. His presence is absolutely crucial to the passing game and he must play to give Anderson any chance of succeeding.

Running Game Thoughts: If Cleveland is to have any chance in this game, and thus any level of productivity from its players from a fantasy standpoint, Jamal Lewis has to be a factor. The Giants’ offense is too good and Cleveland’s defense is too porous to allow Manning and Co. to have a time of possession advantage. Consequently, Lewis should be used to shorten the game while attempting to beat down a Giants defense. Granted, no team has been able to do that, but hey, it’s a good suggestion. But on the other hand, the Browns’ 25th ranked rushing offense vs. the Giants’ 6th ranked rush defense probably won’t be a contest. Perish the thought.

As much as the game rests on the shoulders of Jamal Lewis, one can argue that the play of the offensive line is more important. The O-line’s ability to create creases in the running game has been non-existent so far this season. Jamal Lewis got off to a good start in week 4 against Cincy’s 29th ranked run defense, running for almost 50 yards in the first quarter. But he finished with only 79 yards because the Bengals got penetration on a regular basis in the second half. If that happens against the Giants, Lewis owners will lament the fact that he’s in their line-up.