Dolphins @ Jets (Marcoccio)
Chad Pennington/Devone Bess/Ted Ginn, Jr./Anthony Fasano
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown (vs. NY)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: MIA
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: MIA
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 3.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 5.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.2/18.3/5.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Anyone think Chad Pennington is looking forward to this game? The Jets jettisoned (semi-pun intended) Pennington under the belief that he lacked the arm strength to lead a team in tough December conditions. If they truly believe that they must abandon their recent practice of rushing only 3 lineman and dropping back 8 into coverage. The strategy has failed them miserably and the coaching staff must adjust especially with the “weak” armed Pennington coming to town. Ted Ginn Jr. has stepped up his game but could find it tough being matched up with Darrell Reavis one of the few bright spots in the Jet secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: In Week 17 Ricky and Ronnie will be running into what has been a Jets’ run defense in serious decline. Whether it’s because 360 lb. Kris Jenkins’ back is barking or he is just worn down from the long season he has not been the same player he was in September through November and the Jets defense has suffered as a result. Pro Bowler Ronnie Brown has played well against the Jets – even in limited action as a back-up RB in Week 1 – and will be relied on heavily to get Miami into the playoffs.

Projections:
Chad Pennington: 185 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Devone Bess: 20 yds receiving
Ted Ginn, Jr.: 40 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Ricky Williams: 65 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 125 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 10 yds receiving

Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Dustin Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: NYJ
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: NYJ
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.2/15.1/5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.6

Passing Game Thoughts: This could very well be Brett Favre’s last NFL game. With the way he has played over the last four weeks it may very well be time for Brett to retire to his tractor in Mississippi. Favre has consistently under-thrown his wide receivers and has gone back to being a turn over machine down the stretch. The Jets have the talent at the receiving positions to move the ball against the Dolphin’s generous pass defense but inconsistent throws from Favre and conservative play calling may not allow the Jets to take advantage of Miami’s 25th ranked pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: By now all fantasy owners are aware of the remarkable season that Thomas Jones has had. Jones rushed for over 100 yards and a TD against the Dolphins in Week 1 and will demand the ball with the season on the line. Leon Washington is a game changing back that simply needs to see more touches in this offense. Miami has played the run pretty well this season. They have allowed 102 yards per game and 10 TDs on the season. Regardless of the tough match up, the Jets will need to run the football if they want to make life easier on Favre and to have any hope of keeping this season alive.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 210 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jericho Cothery: 60 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 45 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 110 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Leon Washington: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Patriots @ Bills (Marcoccio)
Matt Cassell/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Benjamin Watson
Sammy Morris/Kevin Faulk (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: NE
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: NE
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: .7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.0/18.4/9.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.4

Passing Game Thoughts: The New England Patriots can still win the AFC East despite losing record setting QB Tom Brady, which says a lot about the organization. After a shaky start Matt Cassell has stepped in and shown to be one of the best young QBs in the league – although having Randy Moss and Wes Welker would certainly help make any QB look good. The Bills are a very mediocre pass defense allowing 213 yards per game and about 1 passing TD per game, so expect a nice game from all 3 aforementioned Patriot players. TE Ben Watson has all-pro talent but just doesn’t get utilized often enough to make him fantasy relevant.

Running Game Thoughts: Lamont Jordan stole some of Sammy Morris’ thunder last week scoring two TDs, but Morris was still able to garner 88 yards on the ground. Belichick’s game plans and usage of his RBs has always made it difficult for fantasy owners. Given Jordan’s health and New England wanting to get something out of him, it may be wise to play it safe with Morris if you have a better option. On the other hand the under-rated Kevin Faulk just keeps producing as he sees touches in the passing game each week, garners a few carries and even finds the end zone from time to time. It should be noted that despite my recommendation to bench Morris, the Bills are a mediocre run defense having allowed 118 yards per game and 17 TDs on the season. They are not a bad match up, so if Jordan turns up lame again give strong consideration to Morris.

Projections:
Matt Cassell: 285 yds passing 2 TDs / 20 yds rushing
Randy Moss: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Benjamin Watson: 25 yds receiving
Kevin Faulk: 35 yds rushing / 60 yds receiving
Sammy Morris: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish/Robert Royal
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: BUF
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: BUF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: .6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 4.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.2/21.9/7.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards returned last week and the Bills actually played some inspired football in beating Denver. This week they get another chance to potentially spoil a team’s playoff hopes and this time it’s a bitter division rival. Edwards is still a young QB and could gain a lot of confidence by finishing the season strong. The Patriots biggest weakness has been their inability to stop opposing pass attacks. While Buffalo is not a fierce aerial attack with nothing to lose they may put the ball up more than normal. However is anyone who is playing a meaningful fantasy game this week going to risk it on a player involved in the Buffalo Bills passing game?

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch has been pretty mediocre this season. Outside of one or two big games and one or two poor games, he has been good enough to start, but not good enough to carry a fantasy team. New England is the 12th ranked defense in rushing yards allowed (104.1 per game), but has managed to hold opponents to only 8 TDs on the season – with 4 coming in one game to Ronnie Brown – so this could be a tough match up for Lynch.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 215 yds passing, 2 TDs
Lee Evans: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 15 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Fred Jackson: 40 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 55 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Cowboys @ Eagles (Marcoccio)
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Roy Williams/Jason Witten
Marion Barber III/Tashard Choice (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: DAL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: DAL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 11.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 9.3/9.5/3.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks:12.6

Passing Game Thoughts: It seems Cowboy fans may have took out the anointing oil a little too early for Tony Romo. While he tends to make fantasy owners happy, the guy is a little too careless with the football and struggles in important games a little too often to make his NFL fans happy. The task doesn’t get any easier this week when Romo faces the Eagles 2nd ranked pass defense in front of the hostile Philadelphia crowd. It’s tough to bench Romo though given his upside and the talent surrounding him. Romo got disgruntled Terrell Owens more involved last week. While the guy is a loudmouth, he is still one of the more talented WRs in the league and you know he loves facing his former team in a big game.

Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber played sparingly again last week as he recovers from a toe injury and it’s hard to gauge how much he’ll play this week. Tashard Choice has looked very good in his place, but it’s tough to start him not knowing how big of a role he will have. Philadelphia has the No. 4 run defense in the NFL and have only allowed 7 rushing TDs on the season, so owners will face a difficult decision if they want to “sit” a potentially less than 100% Barber in a tough match up. My guess is that with the season on the line the tough as nails Barber will suit up and play well.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 255 yds passing 2 TDs, 2 INTs.
Terrell Owens: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 30 yds receiving
Roy Williams: 35 yds receiving
Jason Witten: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Marion Barber: 85 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 35 yds receiving
Tashard Choice: 15 yards rushing

Donovan McNabb/Reggie Brown/DeSean Jackson/Kevin Curtis/LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook/Correll Bukhalter (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: PHI
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: PHI
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 28.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.4/15.1/4.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.2

Passing Game Thoughts: The Eagles tough loss last week all but eliminated them from playoff contention, although if things break right they are still alive with a win this week. Donovan McNabb may be playing his last game in Midnight Green, especially if the Eagles lose. McNabb still has some game left in him, but has worn his welcome in Philly thin. As stated last week, the Cowboys were extremely easy to pass on early this season but have really stepped up their game in recent weeks. DeMarcus Ware could make life miserable for McNabb if the o-line does not step up.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook had his way with the Eagles the last time these two teams met up and there’s no reason to think that he will not cause the ‘Boys fits once again. He’s caused the Cowboys plenty of trouble in the past and last week both L’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee were able to break long runs on this defense. Westbrook is much better than those guys and he can go all out in what may be the Eagles last game of the year.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 245 yds passing 1 TD / 15 yards rushing
Reggie Brown: 45 yds receiving
Kevin Curtis: 35 yds receiving
DeSean Jackson: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
LJ Smith: 35 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 140 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 20 yds receiving
Correll Buckhalter: 15 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Chiefs @ Bengals (Mack)
Tyler Thigpen / Dwayne Bowe / Devard Darling / Tony Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. Cincinnati)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Buffalo
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Buffalo
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21

Passing Game Thoughts: As a Dwayne Bowe owner this season, I recall feeling complete disgust early in the year whenever I watched Kansas City’s quarterbacks play. Well, much to everyone’s surprise, Tyler Thigpen rebounded after a miserable start to 2008 and has become a bona fide over the last two-thirds of the season. Gone is the bumbling, stumbling style of play that characterized Thigpen’s game; he’s now a formidable player who—while he still throws interceptions in bunches—can at least be counted on.

Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez have been the biggest beneficiaries of Thigpen’s development. Gonzalez has really picked up his play of late, having scored in three straight games and four of his last five. And Bowe, quite frankly, has been a consistent force regardless of who’s been under center for the Chiefs. The weather may prove to be a challenge in Cincy, but if it holds off, the KC’s “triplets” should continue to display their productivity against a very vulnerable Bengals defense.

Running Game Thoughts: Here’s a question that springs to mind whenever I see Larry Johnson play: in his heyday of 2005 and 2006 when he scored a total of 40 TDs in those two seasons, was his domination more about his skills or that of his offensive line? Running behind an O-line that includes two potential Hall of Famers doesn’t hurt, but LJ seems to have fallen off the map a bit from a fantasy perspective. Some may point to the injuries he’s battled. Others may remind us of the irony of LJ’s productivity taking a dip soon after the ink dried on the new contract he signed in the preseason in 2007.

Whatever the case may be, Johnson appears to be a far cry from the dominant force he was just two short years ago. He shows flashes of the brilliance he displayed in ’05 and ’06, but not enough to become delusional and expect those numbers at this stage. Cincy is ranked 30th in the league against the run, so there’s a slim chance that LJ can do damage. But KC has inexplicably morphed into a team that features the pass, so this could leave Johnson in the lurch. He’s a good RB2 for this fantasy championship game, but anything above that and you’re asking for trouble.

Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 180 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 75 yards
Devard Darling: 45 yards
Tony Gonzalez: 60 yards / 1 TD
Larry Johnson: 85 yards

Ryan Fitzpatrick / TJ Houshmandzadeh / Chris Henry / Andre Caldwell
Cedric Benson (vs. Kansas City)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chief this season: Buffalo
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Buffalo
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21

Passing Game Thoughts: The weather last week in Cleveland was frightful, which is why Ryan Fitzpatrick threw the football only nine times. The wind may not cause as much havoc as it did last week, but the elements should play a factor to some degree. Something’s gotta give in this game, though. Cincy has the league’s worst offense and KC has the 30th ranked defense. Who cracks first and shows their deficiencies to the opponent? Who knows. But I will say that if you’re staring anyone on the Bengals NOT named TJ Houshmandzadeh you may want to consider another hobby. I’d give TJ a shot in my line-up, as he could be interested in redeeming himself for the goose egg he put up last week. He’s the Bengals’ one-trick pony in the passing game, so if starting him despite the poor performance last week is definitely an option.

Running Game Thoughts: Lost somewhat in the debacle that has become the Cincinnati Bengals 2008 season is the re-emergence of Cedric Benson. The heavy winds in Cleveland last week led to Benson toting the rock 38 times, and while his TD production was less than desirable last week and all season, one must consider the Cincy offense as a whole when evaluating the impact of Benson. He supplanted Chris Perry as the starting RB within days of being signed by Cincy, and based on his performance so far, he has made the option of the Bengals resigning him for next year a real possibility.

Benson is battling an ankle injury, but he should be able to play. Kansas City has one of the worst run defenses in the league, and based on the success Cincy displayed pounding the rock last week, it stands to reason that that will be their calling card this week to close the season. Use Benson as a low end RB2 or flex player.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 150 yards / 1 INT
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 65 yards
Chris Henry: 40 yards
Andre Caldwell: 30 yards
Cedric Benson: 85 yards

Giants @ Vikings (Mack)
Eli Manning / David Carr / Amani Toomer / Domenik Hixon / Steve Smith / Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs / Derrick Ward / Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. Minnesota)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Atlanta
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Atlanta
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13

Passing Game Thoughts: Let me say for the record that I am the biggest Eli Manning hater on the face of the planet, so my attempt at an unbiased analysis of his prospects this week is rather difficult. My contempt goes back to draft day in 2004, when he and poppa Archie conspired to get him out of San Diego. I saw him as the prototypically spoiled athlete who pouted his way into getting what he wanted. And he didn’t get nearly the ridicule I thought he deserved from the media. But good for him; it turned out for the best and he’s now a Super Bowl champion.

However, he certainly hasn’t played like one recently. Manning’s only averaged 165 yards in the last three games, with a total of two TDs and two interceptions. Funny how this coincided with the Plaxico Burress saga. And truth be told, no one has really stepped up in Burress’ absence. The Giants are the league’s #1-ranked running team, and I think they will put even more emphasis on the ground game this week and into the playoffs because of the recent dip in productivity with the passing game. Manning is rarely called upon to take a game over, so naturally his numbers will be slightly above average from a fantasy perspective. Plus, with New York having wrapped up the #1 seed in the NFC, Manning may not play beyond the first half. For all those reasons, he should be on your bench in week 17.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week’s game against Carolina showed how dominant the Giants’ running game can be. Brandon Jacobs softened the Panthers’ defense with his bulldozer brand of running, while Derrick Ward used his speed and agility to take advantage of the shellshocked unit. Jacobs has a slight knee injury and may be used sparingly in this game in preparation for the playoffs. That means both Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw should see plenty of carries. Minnesota, though, has the toughest run defense in the league, so pitting the Vikings’ unit with that of the Giants’ running game should be an interesting battle all game long. Minnesota’s playoff hopes ride on this game, so they will give it everything they got. DT Pat Williams will miss this game, but his absence didn’t totally derail a defensive unit that held the red hot Atlanta Falcons offense to only 222 total yards last week.

I think Ward and Bradshaw will see 40 carries between them, the bulk of which will go to Ward. The Giants have a knack for getting the ball inside the opponent’s 5 yard line, giving their RBs golden opportunities to score. That should be the case this week. Expect a goal line score from Ward and perhaps a long run or two from Bradshaw.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 85 yards
David Carr: 145 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Domenik Hixon: 70 yards
Amani Toomer: 55 yards
Steve Smith: 30 yards
Kevin Boss: 50 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Ward: 65 yards / 1 TD
Ahmad Bradshaw: 45 yards
Brandon Jacobs: 20 yards

Tarvaris Jackson / Bernard Berrian / Bobby Wade / Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor (vs. New York Giants)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Washington
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Pittsburgh
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite being mocked for his (apparent) lack of productivity this year by NFL pundits nationwide and on message boards such as this one, Tarvaris Jackson has an amazing eight TD passes against only one interception. Not bad for someone who was benched in favor of the human turnover machine, Gus Frerotte. Frerotte’s injury has reopened the door for Jackson, and he’s taken full advantage of his opportunity. This is a must-win for the Vikings, and they get a break because the Giants have clinched everything in the NFC and may play their 2nd and 3rd stringers for most of the game.

It’s difficult for opponents to key in on one Vikings receiver. Minnesota has four players with at least 40 receptions, including two WRs (Bernard Berrian, Bobby Wade), a TE (Visanthe Shiancoe) and a RB (Chester Taylor). That’s great balance. But that makes it difficult to forecast possibilities from a fantasy perspective. Berrian is the ultimate in hit or miss production and Wade leads the team with 49 receptions but lacks total TDs. Shiancoe has proven to be a great fantasy sleeper at the TE position. His seven TD receptions are 3rd in the league among TEs, but he’s rarely thought of as a starting-caliber player in fantasy football. But this week, put him in your line-up and expect a nice game from him.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson has gotten at least 22 carries in each of the last four games, but he hasn’t scored in three straight. That kind of production is good, but it probably won’t carry you to the championship on its own. The Giants have the 9th ranked run defense, but as I stated earlier, the G-Men may not play most of their playmakers—on offense or defense. That could lend itself to AP having one of his typical AP games. Chester Taylor has become a progressively bigger option in the Vikings’ offense as the season has progressed. His 44 receptions are second on the team behind Berrian. Peterson, obviously, is a must-start, and Taylor is one of those sneaky options this week. If you feel like gambling, put him in there. If you want to play it safe (which I would advise), keep him benched.

Projections:
Tarvaris Jackson: 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Bobby Wade: 70 yards / 1 TD
Bernard Berrian: 40 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 yards
Adrian Peterson: 90 yards / 1 TD
Chester Taylor: 20 yards rushing – 35 yards rec.

Browns @ Steelers (Mack)
Ken Dorsey / Bruce Gradkowski / Braylon Edwards / Donte Stallworth / Steve Heiden
Jamal Lewis (vs. Pittsburgh)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Cincinnati
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Cincinnati
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 5

Passing Game Thoughts: This season can’t end quick enough for those who follow the Cleveland Browns. To follow up a 10-win season last year with a stink bomb in 2008 was a painful pill to swallow for many, perhaps not the least of which were the fans of the Browns and the NFL itself. Betting that the Browns were the next hot thing, Cleveland appeared on national television five times, so the entire nation got a front row seat to the debacle that was the Browns in 2008.

Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were both lost for the season with injuries. Now Ken Dorsey is iffy for this game. That potentially puts the controls of this sputtering offense in the hands of Bruce Gradkowski. Ouch. The Browns have gone five games without scoring a TD, and that streak may even reach six considering the circumstances and the opponent. It’s not even necessary to debate who will start for them. I mean, does it even matter? Don’t even think about putting anybody on the Browns in your line-up.

Running Game Thoughts: Fifteen and counting. That’s the number of games this year in which Jamal Lewis has played without cracking the 100-yard mark in a game. That is a microcosm of Cleveland’s season. The inability to run the football consistently has led to a boatload of other issues that contributed to the derailing of a season that began with much promise and hoopla. I don’t even have to warn you that Cleveland’s opponent this week is the league’s top defensive unit. In fact, it wouldn’t matter who they were scheduled to play. The Browns gave up on this season weeks ago, so keep all Browns on your bench.

Projections:
Ken Dorsey / Bruce Gradkowski: 125 yards / 2 INTs
Braylon Edwards: 55 yards
Donte Stallworth: 35 yards
Steve Heiden: 30 yards
Jamal Lewis: 40 yards rushing

Ben Roethlisberger / Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Heath Miller
Mewelde Moore / Willie Parker (vs. Cleveland)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Houston
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Jacksonville
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 2

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger was Mr. Butterfingers last week, accounting for four turnovers that led to 21 Tennessee points. And even though Cleveland’s season has been dreadful, their 30 defensive takeaways are second in the league, so Big Ben must be more careful with the football. His sandlot approach and never-give-up attitude in the pocket is admirable, but the benefits of the patience and courage he displays is outweighed by the game-changing risks they present.

Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes must get separation from the overachieving defenders in the secondary if Big Ben is to break from the stench of last week’s game. This is a home game for the Steelers with a lot riding on it, so I expect them to come out and attempt to land a big blow early in the game in an attempt to take the spirit and fight out of the Browns early on. Both Ward and Holmes are prime candidates for that, as well as TE Heath Miller. I think Miller will end the game as the Steelers’ leading receiver.

Running Game Thoughts: Mewelde Moore entered the season as Pittsburgh’s 3rd string RB; now he looks like the team’s best. Sure, Willie Parker has gotten the lion’s share of the carries since his return from injury, but anyone with the least bit of football intellect can see that Parker still labors when he runs. He lacks the explosiveness that he showed the first two games of the season. In contrast, whenever Moore gets an opportunity, he exhibits a swift and powerful running style that he never showed during his days in Minnesota. Cleveland has one of the league’s worst run defenses, and they will be in full retreat mode this week. I would anticipate an even split of carries between Moore and Parker, and say that Parker will put up the better numbers of the two.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 150 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward: 50 yards
Santonio Holmes: 35 yards
Heath Miller: 60 yards / 1 TD
Mewelde Moore: 95 yards / 1 TD
Willie Parker: 40 yards

Jaguars @ Ravens (Mack)
David Garrard / Reggie Williams / Dennis Northcutt / Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Jones-Drew / Chauncey Washington (vs. Baltimore)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Washington
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Washington
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 4.5

Passing Game Thoughts: I’ve enjoyed watching David Garrard carve up defenses during the last two games. He had a rough start to the season, particularly the first three games. But he’s rebounded nicely and become a viable fantasy option on most weeks—but probably not this week. And guess who’s become his go-to guy in the process: Dennis Northcutt. Northcutt was an invisible man for most of the season but has emerged on the fantasy map with two fantastic games the last several weeks. He has 13 catches during that stretch with 248 yards and two TDs. Garrard can expect to feel the heat from the Ravens’ defense early and often, so it’s going to be critical that he establish a rapport with Northcutt immediately. Reggie Williams and Marcedes Lewis are too inconsistent to pose a threat, so Northcutt looks like the only receiving choice here.

Running Game Thoughts: With Fred Taylor already on the injured reserve list and Maurice Jones-Drew dealing with an ankle injury, the Jags’ running game may fall on the shoulders of rookie Chauncey Washington. That’s a monumental task for a rookie to endure. MJD has battled a number of injuries in his career but has yet to miss a game. That kind of track record points to him playing, but considering the opponent and the circumstances surrounding the game relative to the playoff scenario for both teams, and one couldn’t blame Jones for sitting out the season finale. It’s too early to say with any certainty whether or not he will play; keep up-to-date on MJD’s status before putting him in your line-up.

Projections:
David Garrard: 165 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Dennis Northcutt: 65 yards
Reggie Williams: 40 yards / 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis: 35 yards
Maurice Jones-Drew: 40 yards
Chauncey Washington: 35 yards

Joe Flacco / Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap
Le’Ron McClain / Willis McGahee (vs. Jacksonville)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Minnesota
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Minnesota
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco’s play has leveled off recently. He hasn’t thrown for more than 149 yards in any of the previous three games, yet the Ravens are 2-1 during that stretch. Certainly that’s more evidence of Baltimore’s defense than anything else, but the fact remains that Flacco has made steady progress all season. The prospects of him coming out of his recent funk are good. The Jags’ pass defense is ranked 19th in the league, plus they’re in the bottom third of total interceptions and sacks. That kind of inferiority on defense lends itself to allowing for productive QB numbers. Flacco’s #1 WR Derrick Mason continues to play with a shoulder injury he’s had more almost two months but maintains his productivity. Mason will go to work against Jacksonville’s overmatched secondary and lead his team to victory. He’s a good option as a WR3 this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The two-headed monster of Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee proved much too much for the Dallas Cowboys last week. That trend will continue this week. Flacco has cooled a great deal recently, and perhaps the best way to reignite his fire it getting the running game going. McClain has gradually become the more attractive option of the two, with McGahee becoming a RB3 in the process. McClain, however, is becoming one of those fantasy gems we sometimes find late in the season. A waiver wire pick-up in just about every league, the big fella has become the focal point of a Ravens offense that prides itself on a physical ground game. He’s had at least 20 carries in each of the last four games, so the opportunities remain plentiful for McClain. Start him with confidence and expect good numbers this week.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 175 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Mason: 70 yards
Mark Clayton: 45 yards
Todd Heap: 35 yards / 1 TD
Le’Ron McClain: 95 yards / 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 40 yards

Lions @ Packers (Mack)
Dan Orlovsky / Calvin Johnson / Kerry Colbert / John Standeford
Kevin Smith (vs. Green Bay)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: NA
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A

Passing Game Thoughts: The march to infamy continues as the Detroit Lions forge ahead on their quest to become the league’s first winless team in a season. The Lions showed the NFL world last week against New Orleans that they do indeed have the talent to pull off such a stunt. With a defense that can’t stop anyone and a passing offense that can’t get out of its own way, the skids are greased for this wild ride into the NFL history books. Dan Orlovsky played well considering the circumstances, until last week. He looked more flustered during the game against the Saints than at any other time this season.

Remarkably, Calvin Johnson remains the only receiving threat on the team but continues to do damage to opposing defenses. It’s amazing how much “uncoverable” he is. With CB Charles Woodson likely to draw the assignment of shadowing Johnson for most of the game, the match-up between the two should be one to watch. Johnson has proven that no one can stop him, so Woodson will be no different. The rest of the collection of receivers on the Lions is barely practice squad material, much less starting material. Go with Johnson and hope the weather cooperates.

Running Game Thoughts: Kevin Smith continues to impress. He’s no Chris Johnson or Jonathan Stewart—fellow rookie RBs with prominent roles on their respective team—but he’s at least holding his own during one of the most dire situations for a team in NFL history. I love his vision on those zone blocking running plays and his deceptive quickness to maneuver around or through defenders. Green Bay’s run defense has been a soft spot most of the season, so they remain vulnerable to Smith’s ability to make plays. The Lions will come out desperate to win this game and will no doubt mix up the play calling this week. Whether or not the translates into the team’s first victory of 2008 remains to be seen. But I like Smith this week as a high RB3 or flex player. The weather is always a factor in Green Bay in December, so that must be taken into account.

Projections:
Dan Orlovsky: 175 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Calvin Johnson: 110 yards / 1 TD
Kerry Colbert: 35 yards
John Standeford: 25 yards
Kevin Smith: 75 yards / 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers / Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. Detroit)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Indianapolis
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Green Bay
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 26
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 20

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m sure Aaron Rodgers is looking forward to the game, especially after reviewing the game film from last week’s Detroit-New Orleans game. Rodgers is the leader of the league’s 9th best passing attack, and after seeing Drew Brees throw to open receiver after open receiver against Detroit, one could only imagine what he envisioned for himself and his receivers. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings could easily have their best games of the season this week. The Pack employed a rather short passing attack last week against Chicago. That won’t be the case vs. Detroit. Expect long passes to both receivers in a not-so-veiled attempt at getting Detroit mentally out of the game early. The Lions haven’t prevented anybody from imposing their will on them all year, so why start now? Get all your Packers in your starting line-up, of course.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant toted the rock 25 times last week. And while his yards per carry was unimpressive (2.5 ypc), it helped Green Bay win the time of possession battle. Grant will see that many carries and then some against Detroit. After Rodgers hits the Lions’ secondary deep on several passes, expect to see a heavy does of Grant. Detroit will have no response—not unlike the other 15 games this season. The Lions have the league’s worst run defense, and it will be exploited all day. A combination of injuries, poor defensive design and inferior talent has contributed to the unraveling of the Lions’ defense. This will be a cold, ugly Wisconsin day and Detroit will once again be overmatched. Grant may threaten his season high this week.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 225 yards / 2 TDs
Donald Driver: 110 yards
Greg Jennings: 65 yards / 1 TD
Donald Lee: 30 yards 1 TD
Ryan Grant: 130 yards / 2 TDs

Rams @ Falcons (Dhawan)
Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/ Donnie Avery/ Keenan Burton/Joe Klopfenstein
Steven Jackson/Kenneth Darby (vs. ATL)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +11.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -17.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -55.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +4.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams are closing a terrible season. They will find it difficult to match last season’s 3 wins with a victory this week against the playoff bound Falcons, the league’s best turnaround story. QB Marc Bulger has been a disaster since posting 24 TDs and 8 INTs in 2006 and signing his $60 million extension---just 21 TDs and 28 INTs over the past 2 campaigns. WR Torry Holt still has the jury out on him deciding whether age or lack of QB play has led to his dramatic drop off. Young WRs Keenan Burton and Donnie Avery have shown flashes of explosion and are racking up valuable playing time. Both should be fine dynasty prospects, although the direction of this squad is uncertain as the GM resigned this week. Expect a tough outing, as the Falcons can still earn a #2 playoff seed and bye week, so they will play hard and keep up their strong momentum.

Running Game Thoughts: HB Steven Jackson [whom this writer has always felt is a “one-December-wonder”] resumed his injury marred season with a 100 yard game last week, and needs 119 yards to cross the 1K mark on the year. The Falcons rush defense is semi-soft like cream cheese, allowing 122 yards per outing, so Jackson and backup Kenneth Darby [5 catches, 57 yards last week] have a chance to be successful. Watch for a blowout and limited carries as the better team keeps rolling into the playoffs.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 255 pass/ 1TD/ 2INT
Torry Holt: 70 rec
Keenan Burton: 40 rec
Donnie Avery: 60 rec/ 1TD
Joe Klopfenstein: 25 rec
Steven Jackson: 85 rush/ 25 rec/1TD
Kenneth Darby: 25 rush/ 35 rec

Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/ Brian Finneran/Justin Peelle/ Harry Douglas
Michael Turner/ Jerious Norwood (vs. STL)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -18.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +3.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -45.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -1.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Is Matty Ice the legitimate MVP of the league? If he guides his Falcons to a #2 NFC playoff seed and first round bye, voters will have a difficult time not anointing him. Analysts laud this young player for showing no signs of being a rookie; instead, demonstrating the poise and leadership of a seasoned veteran. In the fantasy lineup, you can always expect solid numbers with few mistakes and negative points. WR Roddy White has completed his transformation to “star”, and fellow young buck WR Harry Douglas has flashed his big play ability on the ground and in the air [as predicted and noted during the preseason by in-house rookie guru writer Matt Waldman]. Expect another great day as the Falcons trounce a bad team to keep rolling into the playoffs and possible bye-week on a high note.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner is the co-winner of the “LJ 2008” trophy, awarded annually to the running back who explodes onto the scene with an obscene 20-ish TDs [co-recipient DeAngelo Williams of Carolina actually does have 20 total scores]. Turner proved all year he was not taking advantage of tired defenders while backing up Tomlinson in San Diego---he actually does have the power and moves to run through, over, and away from them. He is among the hottest dynasty players along with Adrian Peterson, and will warrant high consideration next season in redrafts. This week, look for him to place the cherry on top of his magical season for his turnaround franchise, and post huge stats to help power the push for a #2 playoff seed and bye in the NFC. HB Jerious Norwood is a week 17 play in leagues still suiting up, as he may get garbage time gravy.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 230 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Roddy White: 80 rec/1TD
Michael Jenkins: 30 rec
Brian Finneran: 20 rec
Justin Peelle: 30 rec
Harry Douglas: 65 rec
Michael Turner: 65 rush/2TD
Jerious Norwood: 80 rush/2 TD

Panthers @ Saints (Dhawan)
Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad/Dwayne Jarrett/ Jeff King
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (vs. NO)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +6.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -55.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -16.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Panthers lost a tough game last week to the battle tested Giants. Despite a great game plan and formula, the Panthers learned that it takes more than linemen and a speedy receiver posing match up problems to win in December and January---it takes intangibles. QB Jake Delhomme has been okay this year, but not magical like 2003, when he hit every key read and avoided every timely mistake en route to the Super Bowl. His fantasy year has been solid, but probably lower end QB2. Steve Smith owners dream of explosive games every week, but have received solid ones [6TDs on the year, despite hopes of a career 2005 repeat]. This team will need to pull out all the stops to avoid dropping to a #5 seed in the NFC. Expect the bomb early and often, and veteran Muhsin Muhammad could be the best play with red zone targets for TDs.

Running Game Thoughts: The NFC is on notice that Carolina can play even the World Champs to the wire at their place. DeAngelo Williams has co-earned the “LJ 2008” trophy, awarded to breakout runners posting huge stats. This should not be a surprise, as the Memphis product was a scoring machine with 1900 yards and 22 scores his last campaign before a solid Senior Bowl week and performance. Much will be made of his future rank in upcoming summer 2009 drafts, but for now, play the thoroughbred as they need this game to keep pace with the Falcons. Back up Jonathan Stewart cannot be regarded as the number1 play this week, as starters cannot rest, and the division rival Saints will want nothing more than to ruin the playoffs for the Panthers.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Steve Smith: 80 rec
Muhsin Muhammad: 80 rec/1TD
Dwayne Jarrett: 25 rec
Jeff King: 25 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 110 rush/2 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 60 rush

Drew Brees/Devery Henderson/David Patten/Robert Meachem/ Lance Moore/Billy Miller
Pierre Thomas (vs. CAR)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +26.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -6.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +41.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Can QB Drew Brees match the season record passing yards mark of the legendary Dan Marino? A mere 401 yards are needed for the tie, while Panthers CB Chris Gamble and hard hitting S Chris Harris will do everything in their power not to be known as the record-givers [much like the Packers playing to avoid the reputation of yielding the lone victory to the 2008 Lions]. Brees found the stride again with star receiver Marques Colston, connecting on 2 scores last week against the aforementioned woeful Lions. Reggie Bush is out for the year, but HB Pierre Thomas is a valuable fill-in, and contributes just as well on the screen game, especially in the red zone. TE Jeremy Shockey is finally healthy---too late for fantasy owners this year, but a good omen for 2009. Expect the Saints to sell out and try to ruin the Panthers holiday season by plummeting them to a #5 playoff seed with a win.

Running Game Thoughts: HB Reggie Bush is out for the year again after his knee acted up and did not perform as he would have liked since returning from injury; or, he just wants an early vacation to work the jiggle off of his E! Network girlfriend Kim Kardashian. HB Pierre Thomas has done a great job in Coach Sean Payton’s offense, racking up yards and TDs the past month. He should get plenty of opportunities to score and aide Brees towards the record passing yards mark.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 400 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: 100 rec/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 50 rec
David Patten: out
Robert Meachem: 20 rec
Lance Moore: 80 rec/1 TD
Billy Miller: 40 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 60 rec/ 1TD
Reggie Bush: out [IR]
Pierre Thomas: 70 rush/ 50 rec/2 TD

Raiders @ Buccaneers (Dhawan)
JaMarcus Russell/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Chaz Schilens/Zach Miller
Darren McFaddenJustin Fargas (vs. TB)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -0.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +12.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +33.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Analysts will find it easy to criticize QB JaMarcus Russell this off season. The second year player has not performed as well as rookie QBs Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan, especially in the win department. Fantasy wise, he has posted some sporadic nice outings, but is still a 53% passer with minimal ground stat contribution [1 rush TD this year]. He looked good last week against the weak Texans secondary, but this week the Bucs secondary is the 5th rated unit in the league---thus, a poor outcome. Overall, this player is doomed until his franchise changes directions and team building techniques. WR/KR Johnnie Lee Higgins is a star in waiting, and has exploded for long TDs this season [3 return TDs and 3 receiving TDs this season]. Keep an eye on him in dynasty leagues, but expect low stats this week. Expect a dismal week 17, and a poor-to-sleeper dynasty outlook for Russell.

Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden owners got the inverse of their draft selection this year: instead of their competitors watching him post huge stats, DMC and his owners watched other rookies post great stats and become the gems of 2008 fantasy drafts. Runners like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Jonathan Stewart have all out gained the highly touted speedster, and like Russell, his future is bleak without drastic team changes. The only shining light is that the Bucs rush defense hands out yards like McDonald’s does burgers---billions and billions served. The Tampa unit has been off since news came of defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin’s plans to leave the team to join his son at the University of Tennessee. They should make every effort to correct this and make a wildcard playoff push against the bad Raiders, but DMC can hope to make a final case to justify his fourth overall selection and close 2008 with a bang. Expect medium stats as non-star HB Justin Fargas continues to get major carries [does anyone have the answer as to why?]

Projections:
Russell: 200 pass/1TD/3INT
Higgins: 80rec
Schilens: 40rec
Miller: 60rec/1 TD
McFadden: 50rush/20rec
Fargas: 50rush

Jeff Garcia/Antonio Bryant/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard/Michael Clayton/Jerramy Stevens/Alex Smith
Cadillac Williams/Warrick Dunn (vs. OAK)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -21.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +39.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Jeff Garcia returned last week, and played his usual gutsy style in trying to squeeze out a victory against the Chargers, among the hottest teams in the AFC. The Bucs need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and WR Antonio Bryant will have a tough time helping Garcia post nice stats. CB Nnamdi Asomugha was like Velcro last week, shutting down Texans WR Andre Johnson to a mere 2 grabs and paltry 17 yards. Bryant is not as savvy as a Reggie Wayne or as physically gifted as an Andre Johnson, so temper expectations. Veteran WR Joey Galloway has been a shell of his former self while battling a foot injury; on the other hand, this writer previewed the grim history of receivers aged 36 or older and the propensity to gain 1000 yards: only Jerry Rice [twice], Jimmy Smith [once], and Galloway [once] have accomplished the feat.

Running Game Thoughts: Cadillac Williams and Warrick Dunn were shutdown last week in a shootout with the Chargers, but they will bounce back this week against the softer Raiders rush defense unit. Williams is a great comeback story, and Dunn continues to defy age and odds with solid contributions in Jon Gruden’s offense. Expect nice stats for both runners trying to complete a wildcard playoff berth against the weak Raider rush defense.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 260 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Antonio Bryant: 50 rec/1 TD
Joey Galloway: 20 rec
Ike Hilliard: 70 rec
Michael Clayton: 40 rec
Jerramy Stevens: 40 rec
Alex Smith: 20 rec
Cadillac Williams: 65 rush/1 TD
Warrick Dunn: 80 rush

Titans @ Colts (Dhawan)
Kerry Collins/Vince Young/Justin Gage/Justin McCareins/Brandon Jones/LaVelle Hawkins/Bo Scaife
LenDale White/Chris Johnson (vs. IND)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -16.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.4%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kerry Collins has surely cashed his 2008 401k [or 275k with the current economic conditions] into a great 2009 opportunity with teams needy of a polished, durable, smart signal caller. He was razor sharp last week against the number 1 defense in the league, helping direct the first 300 yards offensive output against the unit all season. Any owners still playing in week 17 should bench Collins, as the Titans have clinched home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and will certainly not show anything to a potential playoff opponent in Indianapolis [who also has locked the #5 seed and cannot change position, and thus will rest key players]. QB Vince Young will see the field and try to show some spark before an interesting off season 2009 in Nashville.

Running Game Thoughts: HBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White are among the fantasy MVPs for the 2008 season. Both ran tough against the vaunted Steelers defense last week. Highlights included “Superjets” teasing S Troy Polamalu as he sprinted into the end zone. Expect all key players to rest this week as the 1st seed has already been established.

Projections:
Kerry Collins: out
Vince Young: 140 pass/1 TD/1 INT/ 40 rush/1 TD
Justin Gage: 40 rec
Justin McCareins: 40 rec
Brandon Jones: 30 rec
LaVelle Hawkins: 30 rec
Chris Johnson: out
LenDale White: out
Chris Henry: 55 rush
Ahmard Hall: 40 rush

Peyton Manning/ Marvin Harrison/ Reggie Wayne/ Anthony Gonzalez/ Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/ Dominic Rhodes (vs. TEN)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +12.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -14.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -29.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Peyton Manning has turned the season from a midway mark of 3-4 into a possible record 5th straight 12 win season. Wow. Talks of another MVP award are also in the headlines, as the master has racked up 5 straight games with a 70+% completions rate [including two games with more than 80%]. Manning has a habit of playing a single half of football in week 17s, then yielding time to backup Jim Sorgi for his annual real time workout. Owners playing in total points leagues needing week17 production [as is this writer], expect an attempt to reach 93 pass yards [to hit the 4000 yards mark for a sickly ninth time in his career] and help Reggie Wayne accrue 70 yards to post a 3rd consecutive season over 1200 yards receiving and 4th in 5 campaigns. This duo did pitch-and-catch 12 passes in last year’s finale in order to help Wayne reach the 100 reception mark.

Running Game Thoughts: The running game is either in playoff trouble or resting its guys. HB Joseph Addai did not even carry the ball last week, so back up Dominic Rhodes continued his 14 carries-per-game average over his past 4 games. Look for the HC Tony Dungy and the Colts to rest all key players as playoff seeding has been finalized, so Rhodes may tote the rock a few times in the first half, then yield to Morgan State product Chad Simpson to finish the game.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 105 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Jin Sorgi: 150 pass/1 TD
Marvin Harrison: out [knee/rest]
Reggie Wayne: 75 rec/ 1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 30 rec
Dallas Clark: 30 rec
Dominic Rhodes: 20 rush
Gizon Robinson: 45 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai: out [rest]
Chad Simpson: 70 rush/ 1TD

Bears @ Texans (Dhawan)
Kyle Orton/Devin Hester/ Brandon Lloyd/ Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen
Matt Forte/ Adrian Peterson (vs. HOU)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -11.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +12.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -13.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -19.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Kyle Orton has had some nice games as a relief player on fantasy rosters this year---the past two outings did not qualify. Both were sub-50 QB Rating performances, but both were overtime victories that kept the Bears alive for the reality playoffs [while sinking owners and their fantasy playoffs]. Orton survived last week because the Packers have been notorious at letting games slip away in the end [an unbelievable 7 losses by 4 or fewer points] and DE Alex Brown blocked the potential season sinking FG attempt. Now, the Bears have everything to play for, and they will need to muster a strong, complete effort against an energized Texans squad at rowdy Reliant Stadium. Orton should find room to pass the ball to WR Devin Hester [he of the zero return TDs this season and a steadily solidifying reputation of bad hands]. Beware DE Mario Williams searching to augment his season sack total and not be forgotten among the DeMarcus Ware’s and Joey Porter’s who are assaulting the sack record [Orton has been sacked 8 times his past 4 games]. TE Greg Olsen is finally getting consistent looks as a match up nightmare.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie RB Matt Forte has been a gem for owners all season, and predictably got every opportunity to catch and run the ball in an ischemic 2007 offense. He should get to the end zone against the Texans, and catch passes out of the backfield this week as the Bears will empty the playbook to win and grab an NFC wildcard berth. Expect nice yards in the air and ground and two scores.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 275 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Devin Hester: 55rec/1TD
Brandon Lloyd: 50 rec
Desmond Clark: 30 rec
Greg Olsen: 75 rec/1TD
Matt Forte: 85 rush/55 rec/2TD

Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Andre Davis/Owen Daniels/David Anderson
Steve Slaton (vs. CHI)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -2.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -8.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -28.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +8.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Matt Schaub endured a rude awakening last week against the Raiders pass defense and star shutdown CB Nnamdi Asomugha. WR Andre Johnson followed his 200 yard outing versus Tennessee the previous with a shocking 2 catch, 17 yard performance. Asomugha simply stuck to the wide out like flypaper, and Schaub was forced to check down to TE Owen Daniels [7 grabs, 111 yards] and HB Steve Slaton [5 grabs, 36 yards]. This week, the Bears Cover2 invites the high octane Texans offense to make lots of completions, as did Aaron Rodgers and the Packers multiple receiver threats last week. Expect a big day for Schaub and Johnson in a possible shootout as the Texans play for a positive closeout for HC Gary Kubiak.

Running Game Thoughts: HB Steve Slaton surely deserves consideration among the best breakout rookies this year. Along with HBs Matt Forte and Chris “Superjets” Johnson and QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, Slaton has helped his team change directions and make positive strides looking towards the 2009 season. The Texans get a bye this year due to the catastrophic events of Hurricane Ike, so HC Gary Kubiak will look forward to build his offense around Slaton next year and develop the consistency at the QB position needed to make this run game fully effective. Expect a tough effort this week from Slaton at home against the playoff berth competing Bears. Keep stats projections medium.

Projections:
Sage Rosenfels: 315 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Andre Johnson: 120 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 65 rec/ 1TD
Andre Davis: 20 rec
Owen Daniels: 55 rec
David Anderson: 30 rec
Steve Slaton: 50 rush/25 rec/1 TD