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Eli Mack, Sal Marcoccio, Chris Eakin, Rinku Dhawan


Inside The Matchup: Wk 16
12/19/08

IND @ JAX | SD @ TB | PIT @ TEN | BAL @ DAL | ARI @ NE | PHI @ WAS | CAR @ NYG | CIN @ CLE
NO @ DET | ATL @ MIN | GB @ CHI | MIA @ KC | SF @ STL | NYJ @ SEA | HOU @ OAK
| BUF @ DEN

Colts@ Jaguars (Dhawan)
Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne/ Anthony Gonzalez/ Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/ Dominic Rhodes (vs. JAX)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +5.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +11.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -9.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: This could be yet another explosive game for QB Peyton Manning. Star CB Rashean Mathis is out for the year, so WRs Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez will have lots of room to operate. Old man Marvin Harrison is finally sitting from wear out, so TE Dallas Clark may catch some more TDs after his monster game [12 receptions, 140 yards] last week. Expect all aerial weapons to post well this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The running game is still in need of some fine-tuning before the playoff run. Dominic Rhodes rewarded owners with a great 2 TD effort, and will be sure to cash in on the soft Jaguar run defense. Joseph Addai will see rest and spot carries and is not a factor this week.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 280 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Marvin Harrison: out
Reggie Wayne: 100 rec/ 1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 60 rec/1 TD
Dallas Clark: 70 rec/1 TD
Dominic Rhodes: 80 rush/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 35 rush

David Garrard/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie Williams/Matt Jones/Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. IND)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -22.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -41.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -3.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jaguars would probably rather mail the rest of this season into the NFL offices and fans’ Christmas stockings. QB David Garrard still found a way to post stats last week, racking up 230 yards and 2TDs versus the rugged Packer corners. WR Dennis Northcutt had a great game with 120 yards a TD. He may have room against the Cover2 defense this week, although Colts pass rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will tee off against battered Jaguar offensive line and limit the pass game effectiveness. Free agent off-season acquisition WR Jerry Porter is done for the year, with a grand total contribution of 180 yards and a TD. Limit expectations this week, and do not expect another week3 comeback.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew has turned his season around, and plays hard despite the losing record of the team. He posted another pair of TDs against the notably soft Packer defense which hands out points like junk mail. Fred Taylor is out, so Jones-Drew will continue to carry the entire rushing load against the nemesis Colts, against whom he is always a candidate for a huge game.

Projections:
David Garrard: 240 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Greg Estandia: 35 rec
Jerry Porter: out
Marcedes Lewis: 35 rec
Dennis Northcutt: 70 rec
Reggie Williams: 30 rec/1 TD
Matt Jones: suspended
Fred Taylor: out
Maurice Jones-Drew: 65 rush/60 rec/ 2 TD

Chargers @ Bucs (Dhawan)
Philip Rivers/Chris Chambers/Vincent Jackson/ Malcolm Floyd/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson/ Darren Sproles (vs. TB)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -20.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -45.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +20.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers has always been a fiery player, from his sideline yelling at Broncos players or his leadership while injured last season in the playoffs. He will definitely be on point to prove his Pro Bowl snub was indeed undeserved---he does after all lead the league in QB Rating and TD passes. TE Antonio gates resurfaced from the Witness Protection Program to emerge on stat sheets during the second week of most fantasy playoffs [after sabotaging week1 fantasy teams]. WRs Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd continue their deep pass jump ball connections with Rivers, so expect high passes against the shorter Tampa corners.

Running Game Thoughts: HB LaDainian Tomlinson closes the year with a label he has never worn---fantasy bust. The superstar running back has been notably slowed by his nagging foot and toe injuries, and owners have not seen close to the accustomed production. Nowadays, 90 yards and a TD are cause for ovation. The Buccaneers have been destroyed the past 2 weeks in the run game, first by Carolina then by Atlanta last week. Monte Kiffin needs to get his guys back to basics and the level of tackling for which the unit has always been known. Expect a good chance for Tomlinson to breakout, although this is now Philip Rivers’ team.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 270 pass/ 2 TD/ 2 INT
Chris Chambers: 65rec/1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 75 rec/1 TD
Malcolm Floyd: 40 rec/1 TD
Antonio Gates: 70 rec
LaDainian Tomlinson: 70 rush/20 rec/1 TD
Darren Sproles: 30 rush

Jeff Garcia/Brian Griese/Antonio Bryant/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard/Michael Clayton/Jerramy Stevens/Alex Smith
Earnest Graham/Warrick Dunn (vs. SD)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -8.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +38.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -33.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Jeff Garcia was out last week, so Brian Griese played and did well, posting close to 70% completions and almost pulling out an overtime victory. WR Antonio Bryant did not discriminate, still posting 100 yards and a TD with another acrobatic highlight reel catch. HB Warrick Dunn had a flashback to 1997 and grabbed 7 passes for 40 yards while making his normal run game contributions. Expect Bryant and company to post good stats against the Chargers defense which has been a shell without pass rusher OLB Shawne Merriman, despite their 3-4 scheme and blitz, or lack thereof, package effectiveness.

Running Game Thoughts: Cadillac Williams split the carries with Warrick Dunn and ran hard last week, with a 4.2 YPC average. This unit needs to take better control of the game to rest its defense that has been battered the past 2 weeks by division opponents. Williams and Dunn should be able to score versus the soft Chargers defense. Expect medium yardage and a TD.

Projections:
Brian Griese: 250 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Antonio Bryant: 80 rec/1 TD
Joey Galloway: 20 rec
Ike Hilliard: 50 rec
Michael Clayton: 50 rec/ 1TD
Jerramy Stevens: 30 rec
Alex Smith: 20 rec
Cadillac Williams: 75 rush/1 TD
Warrick Dunn: 70 rush

Steelers @ Titans (Dhawan)
Ben Roethlisberger/Santonio Holmes/Hines Ward/Nate Washington/Heath Miller
Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore (vs. TEN)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -25.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -18.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -20.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -10.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Ben Roethlisberger did not make the Pro Bowl, but he sure deserved consideration on the intangibles ballot. He simply does a fantastic job of leading his team to victory, despite the injuries, weather, or statistical production. However, fantasy wise, that does not sound well for the playoffs. He will continue to have a tough opponent this week, although DT Albert Haynesworth is out for the next 2 games and plays a pivotal role in the pass rush and pass defense. Expect medium yardage and a score with at least 1 INT.

Running Game Thoughts: Willie Parker started the season with a bang, posting 130 yards and 3 scores in the opener. Since then, the Steelers run game has been dismal. It still gets fantasy points, but in spurts, not bunches. The team uses its run game simply to rest the receivers, and continue the illusion of play action. HB Mewelde Moore still makes contributions, but will have a tough time this week, as will Willie Parker. Do not over think the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth this week, as the Steelers offensive line is ill equipped to take advantage.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 265 pass/2TD/2INTs
Santonio Holmes: 75rec
Hines Ward: 65rec/1 TD
Nate Washington: 50rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 45rec
Mewelde Moore: 30rush/40rec
Willie Parker: 50 rush

Kerry Collins/Justin Gage/Justin McCareins/Brandon Jones/Bo Scaife
LenDale White/Chris Johnson (vs. PIT)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -41.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -48.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -21.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -22.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kerry Collins will be sure to avoid mistakes against the league’s fiercest pass rush. LBs James Harrison and LeMarr Woodley will attack Collins, and short throws underneath to TE Bo Scaife will be the antidote to neutralize this weapon. Collins may also try to test the corners deep as they did against the Jaguars during the past month.

Running Game Thoughts: HBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White have been fantasy mainstays and diamonds for their owners. They did not help playoff squads last week when they combined for 90 rushing yards and no TDs. This week will also be a tough match up against the league’s number1 defense. Physical play will be the norm of the day, and points at a premium. Rushing the ball will be the key for the Titans to maintain balance, so expect medium stats for both runners with committed carries after last month’s media gripes by HB LenDale White. Also note that Ravens FB LeRon McClain posted a nice 90 yards last week against these Steelers a week ago.

Projections:
Kerry Collins: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Justin Gage: 50 rec/1 TD
Justin McCareins: 20 rec
Brandon Jones: 50 rec
Chris Johnson: 65 rush/40 rec/1 TD
LenDale White: 45 rush

Ravens @ Cowboys (Marcoccio)
Joe Flacco/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason/Todd Heap
Ray Rice/LeRon McClain (vs. DAL)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: CLE, SEA, PIT
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.6/14.7/7.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco’s fine rookie season has been somewhat lost in the praise being heaped upon the very deserving Matt Ryan. Flacco has played with incredible poise and has given the Ravens the passing attack that has been missing for years. Derek Mason, the cagey veteran, seems to be Flacco’s first look and has been as dependable a fantasy option as he’s always been. The Cowboys were extremely easy to pass on early this season but have really stepped up their game in recent weeks due to health and a change in philosophy. DeMarcus Ware only needs four sacks to break Michael Strahans’ single season record – Do the Cowboys face Brett Favre next week? Ware and the rest of the resurgent Dallas pass rush could very well be Flacco’s stiffest test. This could be the game where he looks like a rookie.

Running Game Thoughts: LeRon McClain made the Pro Bowl as a fullback this year, but it was his skill as a ball carrier that gave him the nod, not traditional FB qualities. He is built like a linebacker, but shows lateral quickness worthy of a scat back. McClain has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, outperforming the more heralded, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice so far this season. McGahee has been far too unpredictable to warrant a starting slot for your fantasy squad. The potential zero he nets you just isn’t worth his limited upside. The Cowboys pose a pretty tough match up having allowed only 93.1 yards per game and 8 rushing TDs on the season. Over the last two seasons the Cowboys have struggled more against smaller quicker backs, so perhaps it could be Ray Rice getting the majority of carries this week for the Ravens who use their backs based on game plans and situations.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 215 yds passing, 2 INTs / 15 yds rushing,
Derek Mason: 60 yds receiving
Mark Clayton: 35 yds receiving
Todd Heap: 20 yds receiving
Ray Rice: 65 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
LeRon McClain: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Roy Williams/Jason Witten
Marion Barber III/Tashard Choice (vs. BAL)


Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: IND, NYG
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: NYG
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 3.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.5/18.5/1.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 8.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Prior to last week’s game, Tony Romo had 3 TD passes in every home game that he played this season and over 300 yards passing in all of them (except for one v. Cincinnati). Last week he snapped the “3 TDs per home game” streak, but did manage to throw 2 TDs against the Giants. This week those numbers may not come so easily as the Baltimore Ravens 3rd ranked passing defense comes to town. The Ravens allow 179.5 yards and 1 TD per game. Two things to note: (1) The Ravens limit fantasy points to opposing TEs so Witten, while still a “must start”, may not put up his usual stellar numbers against this defense; and (2) Safety Ed Reed may be the best playmaker on defense in the NFL which may not bode well for “Turnover” Tony Romo.

Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber played sparingly last week as he recovered from a toe injury. Once again, backup rookie Tashard Choice looked very good in his place. Choice is a grinder who has shown some surprising big-play ability against tough defenses like Pittsburgh and New York. Baltimore is another tough defense on opposing RBs, allowing only 78 yards per game and a shocking 3 rushing TDs on the season. Expecting a backup like Choice or Barber at less than 100% to have a big day is like expecting Angelina Jolie to bring you top prize in an ugly date contest.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 285 yds passing 2 TDs, 2 INTs.
Terrell Owens: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 30 yds receiving
Roy Williams: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 75 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 45 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Tashard Choice: 25 yards rushing

Cardinals @ Patriots (Marcoccio)
Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston/Leonard Pope
Tim Hightower (vs. NE)


Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: NYJ, DEN
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.7/22.3/9.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Arizona is going through the motions since clinching their division two weeks ago, but will need to get back on track if they don’t want their first playoff appearance in about 10 years to be short-lived. Kurt Warner was blitzed like crazy last week in Minnesota due to an early Viking lead and no running game by Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are the most dominant starting wide receiver combination in the NFL and can get on track any week. This week is a good week for them to do so as the Patriots are vulnerable through the air. They allow 211.8 yards per game and have given up an unbelievable 26 TDs in 14 games.

Running Game Thoughts: Edgerrin James is a shell of his former self and his burst is no longer there, but I’m still not convinced the Cardinals made the right call when they sent him to the sidelines in favor of rookie Tim Hightower. Hightower has some nice power, but lacks speed and isn’t as savvy a runner as the vet James. In his defense it isn’t like the Arizona o-line is blowing defenses off the ball. New England is the 15th ranked defense in rushing yards allowed, but has managed to hold opponents to only 8 TDs on the season – with 4 coming in one game to Ronnie Brown.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 315 yds passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 95 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Anquan Boldin: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Steve Breaston: 65 yds receiving
Leonard Pope: 15 yds receiving
Tim Hightower: 45 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving, 1 TD

Matt Cassell/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Benjamin Watson
Sammy Morris/Kevin Faulk (vs. ARI)


Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: BUF, WAS, CAR
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: NYJ, BUF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.5/24.4/3.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 31.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Has there been a better story in the NFL this season than Matt Cassell? Guy starts his first football game since high school this season and goes on to be the first QB in Patriot history to throw back to back 400 yard games while leading the Brady-less Patriots to a shot at a spot in the playoffs. Randy Moss has been inconsistent without Brady’s sweet deep ball, but is capable of big games like last week’s two TD performance on any given Sunday. Remember the New England pass defense has given up an unbelievable 26 TDs in 14 games. Arizona has allowed 31 TDs in 14 games so I’m sure they don’t even thinking New England’s poor showing is so bad.

Running Game Thoughts: Sammy Morris has seen the majority of carries since returning to health and has been the effective back he was earlier this season. Kevin Faulk continues to be a good flex player in ppr leagues. Arizona allows 106.7yards per game and has allowed 10 TDs on the season. The only thing holding back the Pats running game this week may be the ease with which they are able to throw against Arizona as they try and keep pace.

Projections:
Matt Cassell: 305 yds passing 3 TDs / 20 yds rushing
Randy Moss: 105 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Wes Welker: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Benjamin Watson: 45 yds receiving
Kevin Faulk: 35 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving
Sammy Morris: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Eagles @ Washington (Marcoccio)
Donovan McNabb/Reggie Brown/DeSean Jackson/Kevin Curtis/LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook/Correll Bukhalter (vs. WAS)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: PHI
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: PHI
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.4/18.5/3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7

Passing Game Thoughts: These are two teams heading in opposite directions and the Eagles could have this game in hand pretty early if Washington’s offense fails to show up. This means Donovan McNabb may not have to pass much against Washington’s 6th ranked pass defense. McNabb has been sharp since the famous two-week stint where he failed to realize an important NFL rule and was benched at halftime in a close contest the following week. McNabb still has some game left in him, but this may not be his week. The Eagle’s pass catchers are tough starts in any case as none stand out enough to dominate a game and any of them could be very good or very bad on any given week.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook should be well rested after getting spelled often by Correll Buckhalter and Kyle Eckel last week with the game under control. Washington is a tough run defense (10th in yardage allowed) but not nearly as dominant or quick enough to handle the little guy from Villanova. Westbrook is one of the most dynamic backs in the NFL when he’s on his game and will be relied on heavily with the Eagles still in the race but with no room for error if they want a wildcard spot.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 185 yds passing 1 TD / 25 yards rushing
Reggie Brown: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Curtis: 25 yds receiving
DeSean Jackson: 40 yds receiving
LJ Smith: 35 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 125 yds rushing, 1 TD / 35 yds receiving
Correll Buckhalter: 25 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. PHI)


Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: WAS
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: WAS
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 16.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.9/19.5/3.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 7.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell has hit a wall after looking like a legit fantasy starter earlier this season. Hopefully for his development Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas will be ready to contribute next season, because Santana Moss and Chris Cooley are very good, but just not enough to run the Zorn West Coast Offense effectively. The Eagles are the 2nd ranked pass defense so don’t expect the Skins to turn it back around this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis’ injuries have caught up to him and the one-time fantasy MVP candidate is now a player that may be on the bench during the fantasy playoffs for some teams with depth. Injuries to the Redskin offensive line haven’t helped nor has Zorn’s play calling and usage of his star RB. Philadelphia has the No. 4 rush defense and have only allowed 6 rushing TDs on the season, so Portis may be a “sit” this week if you have other options.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 215 yds passing, 1 TD
Santana Moss: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Antwaan Randle El: 35 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 55 yds receiving
Clinton Portis: 45 yards rushing / 25 yards receiving

Panthers @ Giants (Marcoccio)
Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Mushin Muhammad/Jeff King
D’Angelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (vs. NYG)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: StL, CIN, CLE
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: WAS, StL, SF, BAL, PHI
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/11.5/6.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Delhomme has been up and down as a fantasy QB, in large part because Head Coach John Fox finally has the backfield which allows him to return to his ground game roots. Despite having one of the most dangerous receiving weapons in the game in Steve Smith, the Panthers would prefer to run the ball and often do. The Giants stout run defense however may force the Panthers to take to the air, where the Giants are a little more vulnerable. The Giants rank 10th in passing yards allowed (195.4 per game) and have allowed 16 TDs through the air. They still have top end pass rushers but have not been as successful getting to the QB as they were earlier in the season.

Running Game Thoughts: “Smash and Dash”, the nickname given to the D’Angelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart combination – much to the dismay of Lendale White – is a little deceiving. It implies that Williams (“Dash”) is a small quick back while Stewart (“Smash”) plods away earning those tough yards. The truth is at 220 pounds Williams isn’t that small and can gain tough inside yards and Stewart possesses tremendous speed for a back his size. This will be the Giants’ 5th ranked run defenses’ toughest test yet on the ground. The inside combo of Barry Coefield and Fred Robbins will need to disrupt the Panther backs before they bust through the line or it may be a long day for Antonio Pierce and company.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 225 yds passing, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mushin Muhammad: 65 yds receiving
Jeff King: 25 yds receiving
D’Angelo Williams: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yards receiving
Jonathan Stewart: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD

Eli Manning/Dominek Hixon/Amani Toomer/Steve Smith/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. CAR)


Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: SD, ARI, GB
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers season: ATL, MIN
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 26.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.6/27.9/6.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.6

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s easy to blame Plaxico Burress for the state of the Giants’ passing game in recent weeks; however I’m not sure his absence is to blame. Last week the Cowboys came out to play and sacked Eli Manning 8 times. The prior week, Dominek Hixon dropped what would have been an 85 yard TD reception early in the game and the team struggled afterwards at windy Giant Stadium. A catch by Hixon there and you likely would not have heard one mention of the Giants being “distracted” by the Plaxico Burress debacle. The Panthers are a decent but not great pass defense (204.4 yards and 1 TD allowed per game), but can get to the passer (40 sacks) so the Giants better correct last week’s blocking debacle. Rich Seubert and Kareem McKenzie practiced and are expected to play so that should help.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs is also expected back this week and the team needs him to step up after struggling the last two weeks to dominate on the ground as they have done all season. Carolina does not defend the run especially well and have allowed 111.5 yards per game and 11 TDs on the ground this season. Look for the Giants to try and establish the run in order to get their swagger back heading into the playoffs.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 285 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Dominek Hixon: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Amani Toomer: 45 yds receiving
Steve Smith: 40 yds receiving
Kevin Boss: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD
Derrick Ward: 65 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 25 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Bengals @ Browns (Mack)
Ryan Fitzpatrick / TJ Houshmandzadeh / Chad Johnson / Chris Henry
Cedric Benson (vs. Cleveland)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Buffalo
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A

Passing Game Thoughts: As I’ve stated ad nauseum with each breakdown of Cincinnati Bengal games this year, the passing attack in the Queen City has been a dreadful experience in 2008. The Bengals’ offense ranks last in points scored, last in yardage and they’re 30th in the league in passing with 160 yards a game. It’s a painful exercise watching this team play, and for those who are counting on anyone on this team for fantasy production, keep in mind that Cincy’s most consistent producer this year (TJ Houshmandzadeh) hasn’t scored a touchdown in a month and had a whopping three catches for 19 yards last week.

The wise man would steer clear of this debacle that is the Bengals’ offense; the gambling man would bet on TJ to provide a hint of productivity against a Cleveland defense that has started to pack it in after holding down Peyton Manning in week 13. Since this is, in most leagues, Super Bowl week, I would choose the former and have TJ stink up the joint on my bench. And Chad Johnson? Forget it. He has 12 receptions over his last four games. He probably shouldn’t even be on your roster. Keep in mind, too, that the whether could get nasty at Cleveland Stadium on Sunday, bringing the passing game of both teams to a halt.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson deserves much kudos this year. After being an NFL and fantasy afterthought as late as week 4 of the season, he entered into a situation in Cincinnati and, at least, made himself relevant again going into the 2009 season. That should be applauded. However, his resurrection in a strange way put the ineptness of the Bengals’ front office in full bloom. After ridding themselves of Rudi Johnson and virtually handing the starting job to Mr. Butterfingers himself, Chris Perry, Cincy found themselves in running back purgatory once Perry proved he was incapable of being a reliable back. Giving the starting gig to a player who was both injury-prone and essentially inexperienced proved to be a foreshadowing of things to come in Bengal Land in 2008.

But fantasy-wise, I digress. Benson has been nothing if not inconsistent this season. After a 104-yard performance in week 10 vs. Jacksonville, he totaled only 94 yards in his next three games. And now with your championship hanging in the balance, this is not the time to play cutesy. TJ is the only Bengal who should be given any consideration as to weather or not he should start. Keep everyone else locked away on the bench.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 165 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 65 yards / 1 TD
Chad Johnson: 45 yards
Chris Henry: 40 yards
Cedric Benson: 50 yards

Ken Dorsey / Braylon Edwards / Donte Stallworth / Steve Heiden
Jamal Lewis (vs. Cincinnati)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Washington
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cleveland Brown passing attack has been abysmal all season long with three different QBs at the helm. Noodle-arm Ken Dorsey is the latest installment, and while he hasn’t been a complete abject failure, he certainly hasn’t done much to save a sinking fantasy ship in Cleveland that began taking on water way back in September. Perhaps the best news regarding the Browns’ passing attack is a least the receivers are starting to consistently hang onto passes thrown their way.

Donte Stallworth is either the most charismatic person in the league, or his agent needs a raise. The fact that this brittle excuse for an NFL football player continues to receive contract offers from teams despite his proven track record of fragility is beyond me. I still find it difficult to believe he injured himself during pre-game warm-ups before the season’s first game and missed more than a month. And he’s really done nothing to warrant the ridiculous contract Cleveland gave him even when he’s played. Don’t expect much out of the Browns’ passing game. Braylon Edwards only seems to perform well on Monday night, Kellen Winslow is injured and may not play, Stallworth is…well…Stallworth, and Dorsey is…well…Dorsey. Steve Heiden, though, should see some action on short, bailout passes over the middle. But overall, run away from Browns’ players as fast as you can.

Running Game Thoughts: I remember drafting Jamal Lewis in the fourth round of the fantasy draft this year and thinking a got one of the bigger steals. Nope. Wrong answer. Considering that the Browns supposedly had one of the better young O-lines in the league, but yet were incapable of creating running lanes for Lewis baffled me the entire season. That’s not to say that Lewis is absolved from his pitiful play. The fact that he has yet to top 100 yards in a game so far this season—including 39 yards TOTAL over the last two games—is one of the most shocking stats in the NFL.

Cincy’s run defense is not great, but they have held runners in check who many consider are better players than Lewis. Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook, Thomas Jones…none of them ran for more than 77 yards against the Bengals. So it stands to reason that Lewis’ nightmarish season continues this week. Keep him on your bench.

Projections:
Ken Dorsey: 145 yards / 0 TDs / 1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 60 yards
Donte Stallworth: 35 yards
Steve Heiden: 40 yards
Jamal Lewis: 50 yards

Saints @ Lions (Mack)
Drew Brees / Marques Colston / Lance Moore / Devery Henderson / Jeremy Shockey
Pierre Thomas (vs. Detroit)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Indianapolis
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Chicago
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 26
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12

Passing Game Thoughts: There are some media talking heads in Detroit that say the Lions have a shot in this game because the Saints have nothing to play for, considering their almost nonexistent playoff chances. That’s bull. They have plenty to play for, and especially Drew Brees. Brees is 752 yards behind Dan Marino’s single season passing yardage record, and he may attempt to get it in this game. If the Saints throw the ball fewer than 40 times I’ll be shocked. It’s a simple formula, really. The Saints have the league’s top-ranked offense and Detroit has the league’s lowest-ranked defense. Detroit’s secondary is in shambles and it seems the team continues to put players on injured reserve on a daily basis. Taking advantage of this obvious weakness is certainly at the top of the list of head coach Sean Payton. And I know that Marques Colston has been a walking headache at times this season, but he’s slowly shaping into form as New Orleans’ go-to guy. He and his fellow receivers should carve up Detroit’s putrid defense all afternoon.

Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush is on IR, meaning Pierre Thomas should get all the love in the running game. Thomas has been one of those late-season gems we all search for who catapults fantasy owners to championships. Getting that kind of production from what was most likely a waiver wire pick-up is an awesome feeling. Thomas has shown power and speed, plus his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will give the overmatched Detroit linebackers fits all game long. The only challenge that may face Thomas this week is getting opportunities, since I expect Brees to call downfield throws from the opening gun in an attempt to exploit one of the many flaws of the Detroit Lions: their secondary. At the very least, Thomas will get plenty of yards and catches; the TDs will obviously be the cherry on top.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 320 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT
Marques Colston: 130 yards / 2 TD
Lance Moore: 70 yards
Devery Henderson: 40 yards / 1 TD
Jeremy Shockey: 50 yards
Pierre Thomas: 125 yards / 1 TD – 30 yards rec.

Dan Orlovsky / Calvin Johnson / John Standeford / Kerry Colbert / Michael Gaines
Kevin Smith (vs. New Orleans)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Washington
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Oakland
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 3

Passing Game Thoughts: Surprisingly, Dan Orlovsky has outplayed every other Detroit Lion QB that has played this season. That’s not saying much, obviously, but when you consider the lack of playing time he’s gotten over the first four-plus years of his career, the development he’s shown is admirable. He takes care of the football and shows a command of the offense—traits that have escaped veteran Daunte Culpepper during his playing time this season. But as far as “command of the offense” goes, it should simply be “see #81 and throw him the football.”

Number 81, Calvin Johnson, has been a man-child and has basically dominated his opponent in almost every game this season. He’s been the leading receiver in seven of the Lions’ last nine games, plus his 65 receptions lead the team. To put those Johnson’s importance to the Lions in perspective, consider this: the two other WRs on Detroit’s active roster have a COMBINED total of 12 catches this season. Needless to say, #81 is the Lions’ one-trick pony who, despite that fact, has put up amazing numbers even when opponents know he’s the only playmaker on offense. Amazing. Put the big fella in your line-up and know that he will hold up his end of the bargain.

Running Game Thoughts: I like what I’ve seen in rookie Kevin Smith. He’s not quick, nor particularly fast. But he is a good football player who can be productive if surrounded by playmakers. And the fact that he’s made himself a credible RB3 fantasy player going into 2009 running behind the sieve of an offensive line is a testament to his ability. I suspect the Lions will attempt to slow this game down in an effort to keep Brees on the sideline. That will be accomplished by putting and keeping the ball in Smith’s hands. He has shown if given the ball 20-plus times in a game, he can deliver. And his 4.2 ypc average is respectable and gives opponents something to think about. Detroit incorporated the rookie into the passing game last week as well, and with the thin receiving corps in Motown, one would think that approach will continue. Starting Smith is advisable under certain conditions. If you’re plagued by the injury bug (Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, Marion Barber) and need a suitable replacement with an attractive match-up, go with the rook and see what happens.

Projections:
Dan Orlovsky: 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Calvin Johnson: 110 yards / 1 TD
John Standeford: 25 yards
Kerry Colbert: 20 yards
Michael Gaines: 15 yards
Kevin Smith: 80 yards / 1 TD – 20 rec. yards

Falcons @ Vikings (Mack)
Matt Ryan / Roddy White / Michael Jenkins / Brian Finneran
Michael Turner / Jerious Norwood (vs. Minnesota)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Green Bay
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Tennessee
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.5

Passing Game Thoughts: The quick development of rookie Matt Ryan has been one of the biggest surprises this season. His maturation is a primary reason why the Atlanta Falcons are in the thick of the NFC playoff race. And even though Ryan has thrown three INTs over the last two games after throwing only one during the previous five, Ryan should still be looked upon as a top QB2 in fantasy football. Minnesota has been vulnerable through the air it seems for years. They’re currently ranked 22nd against the pass, but we all know it starts up front for the Vikings’ defense. The availability of pass rushing extraordinaire Jared Allen, however, is up in the air as he battles a knee injury. And DT Pat Williams is out with a shoulder injury. With a limited D-line, Minnesota’s secondary could be in trouble.

If Ryan is given time in the pocket, Pro Bowl WR Roddy White will have his way against the Vikings’ secondary. White is having his best season as a pro, but he hasn’t scored in five weeks. He’s too good for that streak to reach six. Count on White getting in the end zone this week, so put him in your line-up. Ryan should be given a long look as well. If you have a QB with a tough match-up or a QB playing in inclement whether, Ryan could be a nice replacement.

Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner is one of the hottest RBs in the league, and his hot streak could not have come at a better time for fantasy owners. He’s averaged 113 yards a game over the last four, with six total TDs. Turner’s the proverbial workhorse, a runner that makes it possible for a rookie QB to develop at warp speed. However, he goes up against the league’s #1 ranked team against the run. Turner averages a little over 100 yards per game, but the Vikings surrender only 72 yards a game. And even with the anticipated absence of Pat Williams, it will be a tall order for the Falcons to make a living running the ball. Nevertheless, I anticipate that Atlanta will continue feeding Turner the ball; his league-leading 24 carries per game gives credence assumption. Jerious Norwood could get enough action to warrant a start, but I wouldn’t screw around with a part-time player in the most crucial week of the fantasy season. But it doesn’t matter that the Falcons play Minnesota. Turner needs to be a starter for your team. He’s helped put you in this position and now’s not the time to turn your back. Start him with confidence.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 240 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Roddy White: 110 yards / 1 TD
Michael Jenkins: 55 yards
Brian Finneran: 30 yards
Justin Peelle: 20 yards
Michael Turner: 80 yards / 1 TD
Jerious Norwood: 15 yards rushing – 25 yards rec.

Gus Frerotte / Bernard Berrian / Bobby Wade / Sidney Rice / Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor (vs. Atlanta)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Tampa Bay
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Carolina
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13

Passing Game Thoughts: Tarvaris Jackson has played well the last 1 ½ games in Gus Frerotte’s absence. Frerotte’s return could be this week, and my take is if he’s healthy enough to play, he will. Jackson’s recent steady play notwithstanding, he’s simply too erratic to be called upon to deliver at such a crucial time of the season. I can’t seem to get out of my head the way in which Jackson played the first part of the year. His presence held back the Vikings’ passing game a great deal and I’m sure head coach Brad Childress doesn’t want to go back to that.

As of this writing, no one knows who will start. I’ll go out on a limb and say Frerotte gets the nod, which should help WRs Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian. Berrian, though, has recently been one of the most inconsistent receivers in fantasy football. After his four-game stretch from weeks 5 thru 9 in which he averaged 5 catches for 100-plus yards and a TD, Berrian has since been hit or miss. There’s no doubt that he’s a big play receiver (as his 20 yards per reception average indicates), but it’s tough to develop confidence in him delivering when you need it most. He’s too much of a threat, however, to bench at this time of the year, so even with the uncertainty at QB, I would start him. Atlanta’s secondary is in the bottom third of the league and just allowed Tampa Bay’s Antonio Bryant to have a big game, so start Berrian and pray to the heavens that he doesn’t pull one of his patented disappearing acts.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson enters this game as the league’s leading rusher. Atlanta is 22nd in the league in stopping the run, but it’s been tough to predict how they’ll do in most games. The Saints’ Pierre Thomas and Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams ripped through the Falcons’ defense recently, but they also put the clamps on LT and Warrick Dunn. The Vikings have made a concerted effort to get Peterson the ball, as he’s averaged 26 carries a game over the last three. Giving the league’s most dangerous runner that many opportunities is bound to create opportunities at some point.

After being the ultimate insurance policy to Adrian Peterson for most of the season, Chester Taylor has become a viable option in fantasy football in his own right—even WITH a healthy Peterson. Taylor has scored in four straight games and should be given some consideration to start on your team.

Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 195 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Bernard Berrian: 75 yards
Bobby Wade: 40 yards / 1 TD
Sidney Rice: 25 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe: 20 yards
Adrian Peterson: 90 yards / 2 TDs
Chester Taylor: 25 yards rushing

Packers @ Bears (Mack)
Aaron Rodgers / Donald Driver / Greg Jennings / Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. Chicago)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Atlanta
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Jacksonville
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 3.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Remember the first three games of the season when Aaron Rodgers had no interceptions? Remember? Boy has he made up for that. He’s thrown at least one pick in six of the last seven games, including a three interception performance on Monday Night Football at New Orleans. Those questionable performances aside, Rodgers remains relevant in fantasy football because he produces despite the increase in turnovers. He has multiple TD passes in four of the last five games, so that kind of potential should be in your line-up. And anytime a QB has one of the NFL’s most productive receiving tandems, his chance of putting up numbers is always present. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings will exploit a surprisingly porous Chicago Bear pass defense that’s currently ranked 28th in the league. Tight end Donald Lee should also get a look in TE-required leagues.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant was on my “Do Not Draft” list this summer, and for the first quarter of the season it appeared my inclination was correct. He didn’t score a TD until week 7, although there were a few semi-production games peppered throughout the season. But here we are in week 16 and outside a few explosive games, Grant has been just another guy. That’s not what fantasy players want from a guy they drafted with one of their top two picks. It should be noted, however, that one of those games in which Grant displayed the skill set that made him a top fantasy draftee was against Chicago when he ran for a season-high 145 yards in mid-November. I wouldn’t anticipate those kinds of numbers this time, but at least it’s nice to see he’s able to do that kind of thing against a team that, on average, only gives up 93 yards a game on the ground.

Kyle Orton / Devin Hester / Rashied Davis / Brandon Lloyd / Desmond Clark / Greg Olson
Matt Forte (vs. Green Bay)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: Minnesota
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: Dallas
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 22

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been a slow return back to productivity for Kyle Orton. The mistake-free player that made believers out of skeptical fantasy owners in September has reverted back it seems to the inconsistent and unreliable label he entered the season with. Orton has six INTs over his last three games with only four TDs. That kind of shaky play is unacceptable for your line-up at this time of the season. And even though Devin Hester shows promise as a WR, he remains a work in progress. Likewise for Rashied Davis and Brandon Lloyd, who both show very brief flashes every so often. Orton lacks the big-play WR who can bail him out in tough situations. It’s because of that talent void that I would recommend keeping Orton on your bench. Sure these are the same WRs who were present during Orton’s early-season run, but it’s obvious that this is not the same Orton from that time. Stash Orton away in moth balls until next year.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte, the do-everything rookie wonderback, continues to battle a toe injury that limited his effectiveness during last week’s game. He hasn’t practiced all week, but this is too big a game and Forte is too much of the Bears’ offense for him not to play. Forte’s the team’s leading runner and receiver, and playing against a defense with the NFL’s third most interceptions may prompt Orton to use Forte in the passing game on short dump-offs. Keep an eye on Forte’s availability, but the chances are good that he plays. And if he does, count on him contributing to your championship run in a major way.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 200 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Devin Hester: 55 yards
Rashied Davis: 30 yards
Brandon Lloyd: 20 yards
Desmond Clark: 45 yards / 1 TD
Greg Olson: 20 yards
Matt Forte: 80 yards rushing / 1 TD – 35 yards rec

Dolphins @ Chiefs (Eakin)
Chad Pennington/Davone Bess/Ted Ginn Jr.
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season:
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season:
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 12.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.2/19.7/8.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 26.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The important thing to keep in mind here is weather. The expected game time temperature in Kansas City is 20°F. Chad Pennington has had a great year and some big games but as the weather breaks down and the playoffs near, expect the Dolphins to play conservative on offense. Davone Bess is their leading receiver along with TE David Martin. Both players are good underneath route runners that compliment a game played in these conditions. Passing will be short, safe, and designed to move the chains and keep the KC defense honest. Pennington, Bess, and Martin are all second tier options this week and should be avoided in a fantasy championship game in favor of players that play indoors or in warmer conditions despite the matchup against a poor Chiefs pass defense. If it is just cold and not snowy and windy, Pennington could deliver a decent day due to the fact that the Chiefs are on pace to have the lowest team sack total in the modern football era. Given time Pennington will pick them apart on with his terrific accuracy and decision making.

Running Game Thoughts: Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had poor fantasy output last week against the 49ers. That could change this week as the Chiefs are the weakest run defense in the league. The Dolphins came out throwing last week so the RB duo’s rush totals suffered. They will be the focal point of the Dolphin attack this week. Brown is the better option and is a mid level RB1. Treat Williams as a solid flex play with a good chance for 50 yards and a TD.

Projections:
Chad Pennington: 175 yds passing/1 TD
Davone Bess: 50 yds
Ted Ginn Jr.: 40 yds receiving
David Martin: 50 yds/1 TD
Ricky Williams: 50 yds rushing/1 TD
Ronnie Brown: 85 yds rushing/25 receiving/1 TD

Tyler Thigpen/DeWayne Bowe/Mark Bradley/Tony Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. MIA)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: 49ers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Rams
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.8/27.2/7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Again, it’s all about the weather. The Chiefs have averaged 27 points a game since Tyler Thigpen took over. They like to run the “pistol” formation which means a short shotgun formation. Thigpen is not a big arm so he could struggle to get the ball downfield in poor conditions. This would limit DeWayne Bowe the most. Tony Gonzalez is the league’s top TE this season and should continue have another solid day. He is a possession option and could get more looks this week. The matchup is good for him. Miami is a solid defense with a Pro Bowl pass rusher in Joey Porter, but they do not cover TEs well. This is because they like to blitz their LBs. Another reason for poor TE coverage is perhaps the long time philosophy of Parcells to have big physical LBs that are usually not as adept in pass coverage.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins have the fifth best defense in terms of opposing RB points allowed. They game plan to take away the run first and foremost with aggressive 3-4 LB run blitzes. Larry Johnson will get lots of carries and is a good power back for winter conditions. There will be opportunities for big plays if the right play gets called against the right run blitz. Given a good number of carries and some short passes he can have a good day but likely in a losing effort.

Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 145 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT
DeWayne Bowe: 45 yds
Mark Bradley: 30 yds
Tony Gonzalez: 85 yds/1 TD
Larry Johnson: 95 yds rushing/25 receiving/1 TD

49ers @ Rams (Eakin)
Shaun Hill/Isaac Bruce/Bryant Johnson/Vernon Davis
DeShaun Foster (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: 49ers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: 49ers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 25.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.3/19.6/3.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9

Passing Game Thoughts: The 49ers offense will certainly put the pressure on the Rams through the air. St. Louis is the 29th rated defense in QB fantasy points allowed, so they are a great matchup for Shaun Hill. Even oft criticized TE Vernon Davis could post some good numbers. The lack of Ram pass rush will free him up from blocking duties and allow him to run more routes. He was more involved in the game plan last week with five catches. Isaac Bruce is the Niner’s leading pass target and has six TDs on the year. Bryant Johnson played was the second option last week but the number two WR has been a revolving door for Martz this year. DeShaun Foster has never been known as a big receiving back but that didn’t stop the 49ers from getting him 5 catches last week. This is a good sign that he can put up Gore like numbers in Gores absence.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore didn’t play last week and is questionable to play this week. Whoever starts for San Francisco will have an excellent chance to put up big numbers against a very poor Rams run defense. Foster was solid last week with 76 yards on 18 carries for a 4.2 YPC average against the much stiffer Dolphin run defense. He also caught five balls for 25 yards. Obviously owners hope for a healthy Gore but if he can’t play Foster should still provided RB1 production in his place.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 275 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Isaac Bruce: 70 yds/1 TD
Bryant Johnson: 50 yds
Vernon Davis: 35 yds/1 TD
DeShaun Foster: 90 yds/20 receiving/1 TD

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Donnie Avery
Steven Jackson (vs. SF)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season: Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season: Rams
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: .8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 10.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.3/8.1/8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams are a little more effective passing now that they have Steven Jackson as a running threat. Still, I can think of no situations where someone still active in their fantasy playoffs will be starting Marc Bulger. Torry Holt is a slightly better option than Donnie Avery but both receivers are WR3’s at best. The 49er secondary has played very well the last three games limiting opposing WRs to 55.7% below league average. They have two excellent CBs in Walt Harris and Nate Clements.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson is back to being a productive fantasy RB. Last week he rushed for 91 yards on 24 carries. HE will also contribute in the passing game as well. The 49ers are 21st in run defense so Jackson is in line for some good numbers. Start Jackson with confidence and maybe his season disappointing campaign will provide a fantasy championship in the end.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 200 yards/1 TD/1 Int
Torry Holt: 70 yds
Donnie Avery: 65 yds
Steven Jackson: 90 yds/45 receiving/2 TDs

Jets @ Seahawks (Eakin)
Brett Favre/Jerricho Cotchery/Laveranues Coles/Dustin Keller
Leon Washington/Thomas Jones (vs. SEA)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 26.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.0/22.2/12.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9

Passing Game Thoughts: The season is on the line in perhaps Brett Favre’s swan song season. The Jets find themselves in a three way tie with Miami and New England. The Jets control their own destiny but have not taken advantage losing two out of three and a fourth quarter fluke away from 0-3. Favre is in the eye of the storm as he has not been producing results throwing just one TD and four interceptions during that span. I believe that Favre could suffer fatigued arm late in the year. He faded down the stretch last season as well in one of his worst playoff performances. Remember how he looked weak and cold in the on the Lambeau tundra in his last Packer appearance? Now he goes to Seattle where it’s been snowing for a week straight and expected to continue. Favre himself said this week his arm isn’t what it used to be. This could explain why the Jets have been settling for shorter throws the second half of this season. The Jets will once again have to be effective with short, controlled passing to win this game. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles should both be treated as WR2’s this week considering Seattle’s struggles to defend the pass. It will be up to Favre to stay patient and not force throws. Look for Jet TE Dustin Keller to have a big game too because Seattle is giving up big points to TEs this season as well.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones is the beneficiary of the more conservative Jet offensive approach. Jones is set to finish as a top six back this year. Seattle is 20th in RB points allowed so Jones has the right matchup to do damage. Leon Washington will play an active role during pass situations and has a penchant for big plays. He is not consistent enough to make a worthy fantasy play however. The Seahawks should put up a fierce fight in Coach Mike Holmgren’s last game at home.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 220 yds/1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 70 yds
Laveranues Coles: 70 yds
Dustin Keller: 55 yds/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 90 yds/2 TDs

Seneca Wallace/Bobby Engram/Deion Branch/John Carlson
Maurice Morris (vs. NYJ)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.6/22.2/7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Seneca Wallace has played well in Matt Hasselbeck’s absence. He’s been a backup in Seattle since the Dave Krieg era it seems. He knows the system well. Seattle has all their offensive weapons back and has been playing well of late. Deion Branch is their big play receiver and Booby Engram works underneath. The key matchup will be young CB Darrell Revis versus Branch. Revis had a pick last game and can be dangerous. Engram and rookie TE John Carlson will catch the bulk of the passes and you should treat all three as second tier options or low end flex plays.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Morris is the starter and has little to no threat of Julius Jones stealing carries. Morris a versatile one cut back that has been playing well. His stats weren’t great last week because he was lacking that big breakaway to put him over the top. Morris also loses goal line carries occasionally to FB Leonard Weaver. The Jets played well against the run all year until this late season slip. If they continue their poor play Morris will run well and this game will be a coin flip.

Projections:
Seneca Wallace: 190 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 50 yds
Bobby Engram: 60 yds
John Carlson: 80 yds/1 TD
Maurice Morris: 90 yds/25 receiving/1 TD

Texans @ Raiders (Eakin)
Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels
Steve Slaton (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 20.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.1/19.7/3.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 34.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Schaub has been on fire since his return. Schaub to Johnson is a close to a sure thing as there is in the NFL right now. Andre Johnson is the league’s best WR this season. Nnamdi Asomugha is an elite cover corner and this will be the game’s key matchup. Despite Asomugha’s talent, I don’t think any one player is capable of covering Johnson alone. Kevin Walters and TE Owen Daniels are both talented enough to keep defenses honest. Houston should have a big day through the air once again.

Running Game Thoughts: Anyone who kept track of Steve Slaton’s senior year at West Virginia has to be surprised at his explosion on to the fantasy scene this year. He was out played by a freshman on his own team. Slaton has been a star. His ability to make big plays gives the Texans the balance they have been lacking since the days of Dominick Davis. The Raiders have played the run poorly of late and Slaton one of the better RB plays of the week.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 300 yds/2 TDs
Andre Johnson: 100 yds/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 65 yds
Owen Daniels: 60 yds/1 TD
Steve Slaton: 115 yds/2 TDs

JaMarcus Russell/Ronald Curry/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Zach Miller
Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season:
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 21.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.4/23.8/5.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3

Passing Game Thoughts: The Raiders offense was able to post good numbers against the reeling Patriot defense last week. JaMarcus Russell threw for 240 yds with two scores in one of his best days as a pro. The main concern for Houston will be preventing the big plays to Darren McFadden out of the backfield and speedster Johnnie Lee Higgins getting deep. The key matchup will be Houston’s DE Mario Williams versus Oakland OT Kwame Harris. Williams is a top line sack producer and should beat Harris all day. If Williams can get pressure than Houston can afford to bring up a safety to help stop Oakland’s rush offense. TE Zach Miller is Oakland’s lone consistent fantasy play. Houston is average in covering TEs so expect Miller to produce as usual.

Running Game Thoughts: The run is Oakland bread and butter. Without an effective run game they have no shot passing the ball. Justin Fargas consistently churns out 70-80 yards a week with the occasional score. The key for Oakland is Darren McFadden. He’s the wild card that needs to continue to hit big plays as he did versus New England last week. McFadden contributed 45 yards rushing and nearly 70 yards receiving. Without his production this game will be a blow out.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 175 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Johnnie Lee Higgins: 60 yds
Ronald Curry: 45 yds
Zach Miller: 80 yds
Justin Fargas: 70 yds/1 TD
Darren McFadden: 40 yds/40 receiving

Bills @ Broncos (Eakin)
Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Steve Johnson/Josh Reed/
Marshawn Lynch
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Chiefs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Chargers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.2/16.0/7.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bills should be reinvigorated with a healthy Trent Edwards returning at QB. Edwards is playing to prove he can still be the man next year following a poor second half of the season. He missed the last couple games with a groin pull. The winter conditions in Denver will not favor a big passing day. For Edwards to have success, he will need to find production at the WR2 position with either Josh Reed or Rookie Steve Johnson. Buffalo’s problem is that they do not have a compliment to take coverage away from Evans. Reed is not the answer and rookie James Hardy is out. Look for the athletic rookie Steve Johnson to post some decent numbers. TE Robert Royal has been a non factor the last few games and is not a reliable fantasy option.

The Broncos haven’t done a great job on defense stopping the pass or the run. The good news this week is that Champ Bailey is expected to return after missing most of the season. Bailey should be able slow down Lee Evans enough to force the Bills to keep feeding Marshawn Lynch. One thing Trent Edwards won’t have to worry about is a Broncos pass rush.

Running Game Thoughts: Lynch has been steady but not elite. He comes in to this game fresh off his second 100 yard day of the year. He runs hard and keeps good leg drive, but he hasn’t had many breakaways and backfield mate Fred Jackson gets significant time on the field to poach some carries. Lynch should have a good day again. The Broncos have one of the poorest run defenses and the winter conditions will favor a running attack.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 220 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Lee Evans: 65 yds
Josh Reed: 40 yds
Steve Johnson: 55 yds/1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 105 yds/20 receiving/1 TD

Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Tony Scheffler
P.J. Pope (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Jaguars
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Jaguars
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.1/16.7/5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Denver has rode Jay Cutlers arm all season so don’t expect that to change regardless of the weather conditions. Cutler has the arm strength to remain effective in poor throwing conditions. The key matchup here is newly named Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall versus Terrence McGee, the Bills best cover CB. Marshall is a big athlete that will have a size advantage, especially in the red zone. While Marshall is a good bet to score and take a safety with him, expect Brandon Stokely and Eddie Royal make a few big plays in single coverage. It appears Tony Scheffler is back to full strength and becoming part of the offensive game plan again. He could have a good day as the Broncos may employ a lot of short passing.

Running Game Thoughts: With five RBs lost to injury at time this year the running game has not been on track most of this year. Three Bronco tailbacks are in the mix this week; Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, and P.J. Pope. Of the three, P.J. Pope stands out as the best play. Selvin Young is still banged up and the Broncos know what they have in Tatum Bell. Was the most productive of the three last week and is the unknown quantity. Mike Shanahan will want to know if Pope can be a productive full time back going in to next year so I think he will get every opportunity to make this game his show case. The Bills have a good run defense, but have played uninspired football since missing out on the playoffs. Pope has a chance to post RB2 worthy stats.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 275 yds/2 TDs
Brandon Marshall: 90 TDs/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 70 yds
Tony Scheffler: 55 yds/1 TD
P.J. Pope: 75 yds/1 TD