Titans @ Lions (Mack)
Kerry Collins / Brandon Jones / Justin Gage / Justin McCareins / Bo Scaife
Chris Johnson / LenDale White (vs. Detroit)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Washington
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Washington
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12

Passing Game Thoughts: Don’t look now, but Kerry Collins has become a viable fantasy QB before our very eyes during the past three games. He has thrown six TDs with one interception over that stretch—this after tossing zero TDs and zero INTs the previous three games. The Detroit Lions field the worst overall defense in the league, so Collins should continue his stellar play on Turkey Day against the winless Lions.

Tight end Bo Scaife will have a field day against Detroit’s overmatched linebackers. Collins will probably start with short passes to Scaife before exposing the Lions’ secondary with deep throws over the top to Brandon Jones or Justin Gage. This game is set up for a man-sized drubbing, and for those who start Collins, the hope is that he produces early in the game because the longer the game goes on the more likely the Titans will rely on the running game to exhaust the clock. Be confident, however, that Collins will put up the numbers that will justify your decision to start him.

Running Game Thoughts: As the fantasy stock of Kerry Collins has risen, rookie sensation Chris Johnson seems to have tumbled. Johnson has zero 100 yard games and only two TDs in the last five contests. And his backfield mate LenDale White has been nothing too special either, save his two TD, 13 yard “gem” several weeks ago against the Colts. But keeping with the trend, the tandem’s struggles should be a thing of the past when they meet the Lions.

Detroit is last in the league in stopping the run. Head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best and most underrated head coaches of the last quarter century, so you can best believe the Lions will see the running game early and they will see it often on Thanksgiving. After White criticized the coaching strategy last week following the game, who knows if Fisher will use his burly running back sparingly once more. That’s something that you should be mindful of. Johnson, on the other hand, should be the best fantasy prospect in this game. Start him with confidence and watch the speedy rookie light up your fantasy scoreboard with stats galore.

Projections:
Kerry Collins: 225 / 2 TDs
Brandon Jones: 75 yards
Justin Gage: 45 yards / 1 TD
Justin McCareins: 35 yards
Bo Scaife: 65 yards / 1 TD
Chris Johnson: 145 yards / 2 TDs
LenDale White: 55 yards

Daunte Culpepper / Calvin Johnson / Shaun McDonald / Michael Gaines
Kevin Smith (vs. Tennessee)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Cincinnati
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Cincinnati
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9

Passing Game Thoughts: Simply put, Daunte Culpepper has shown nothing to warrant even a place on your roster, much less a starting spot in your line-up. His two TDs and five interceptions in the three games in which he has played is proof-positive that he either a) is not in game shape, b) is still learning the playbook, or c) he’s not very good anymore. It could be a combination of all three, but understand that Culpepper’s place in anyone’s starting line-up this week should be met with laughter, taunting and an unrelenting barrage of dumb-dumb jokes.

As bad as Culpepper has been, Calvin Johnson has been equally as good. Despite playing on the 29th ranked offense, Johnson has been one of the hottest and most consistent fantasy receivers during the last month or so. He has scored a TD in six of the previous seven games, and while his receptions and yardage don’t jump off the page, the fact that he’s the only playmaker on the team and continues to hit pay dirt on a regular basis speaks volumes to his talent. Johnson will probably face his stiffest test all season this week against the Titans, but he has displayed uncanny playmaking ability regardless of the defense. Start Johnson and hope that the Lions’ O-line can keep Culpepper upright long enough to spot Johnson on a couple of deep passes.

Running Game Thoughts: Wouldn’t you know that the minute the Lions ceased playing musical chairs at running back, rookie Kevin Smith began to show his stuff. While Smith’s “stuff” may not mandate a weekly spot in your starting line-up, at least his recent play gives hope to those banking on a late-season surge. But that surge may have to wait another week, because Tennessee enters this Thanksgiving Day game having lost its first game of the season, meaning coach Fisher will have that defense humming after being throttled by the Jets last week.

It doesn’t help Detroit’s cause either that starting center Dominic Raiola is out, bringing instability to an O-line already decimated by average play. Titans’ D-lineman Albert Haynesworth is licking his chops for a chance to show the football nation just how dominant he is; consequently, Smith doesn’t stand a chance doing anything of significance. Keep him benched but hope that he continues to develop to the point where a regular starting fantasy spot in 2009 is a no-brainer.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper: 165 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Calvin Johnson: 95 yards / 1 TD
Shaun McDonald: 30 yards
Michael Gaines: 25 yards
Kevin Smith: 65 yards

Seahawks @ Cowboys (Waldman)
Matt Hasselbeck/Bobby Engram/Koren Robinson/Deion Branch/Maurice Morris
John Carlson/Julius Jones (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: PHI, WAS(2x), GB, TB
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: PHI, CIN, ARI, TB
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.7/18.1/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.3

Passing Game Thoughts: For most teams with as much skill as the Seahawks passing attack has on paper, this would be a pretty good match up. The problem is Seattle is a wounded offense that lacks both health and continuity. Of the quarterbacks playing hurt, Hasselbeck may be in the worst shape. Although Bobby Engram and Deion Branch may be “healthy” they aren’t playing at full speed, either. The one glimmer of hope is the Cowboy secondary, which is susceptible for the big play downfield. The problem is Seattle is not a big play passing offense; when rookie TE John Carlson is your most productive weapon in the passing game, that’s a disturbing sign. Part of the problem is Hasselbeck’s back/knee, which prevents him from getting solid torque on the deep ball and the other is the deterioration of the ‘Hawks offensive line. Hasselbeck isn’t the runner Seneca Wallace is and he’s been sacked four times in the last two games. Don’t expect the Seattle passing game to top 200 yards in what should be a debacle.

Running Game Thoughts: If you’re expecting Julius Jones to be licking his chops to face his former team, think again: he left the ‘Skins game with just two carries and did not return due to a calf injury. Maurice Morris is the type of runner with the vision and balance to find some cutback lanes against a fast, reactionary run defense that can tend to over pursue and not maintain their discipline with proper gap control. But as much as I think Morris is the type of runner poised to have a big run or two against the Cowboys, the Seahawks will be too far behind to stick with the run and not get blown out.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 195 yds passing 1 TD
Bobby Engram: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Koren Robinson: 45 yds receiving
John Carlson: 45 yds receiving
Deion Branch: 35 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Maurice Morris: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving

Tony Romo/Marion Barber/Tashard Choice/Terrell Owens/Jason Witten
Roy Williams/Martellus Bennett/Patrick Crayton (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: SF (2x), NYG, GB, TB, PHI
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: BUF, NYG, WAS
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.6 (top 3 scorers per team or 25.8 total)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.5/23.2/2.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 27.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Now that Terrell Owens has played his media trump card, he gets another defensive patsy to “back up” his big mouth (which is fine by me as a guy who drafted him), but T.O. better tell us to get our popcorn early because the passing game should get put back in the box mid-way through the third quarter. I expect a few long drives and/or big plays from the end of the first quarter through the early second half because they will be able to establish the run early and the play action game will be effective. Plus, Romo will be able to avoid the pass rush and create big plays downfield like he did with T.O. last week. This is something that Seattle was vulnerable to with mobile QBs they faced this season. Since the Seahawks have better cover corners, expect Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, and the tight ends to get involved more this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Marion Barber is going to open this game with some big gains and if things hold true to what I project, Tashard Choice will be mixed into the game plan in the second half so he gets some reps and gives Barber rest for the bigger games. If this game isn’t a blowout, Barber is going to have the type of game fantasy owners love if they have him; hate it if they face him.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 270 yds passing, 3 TD, 1 INT
Terrell Owens: 105 yds receiving, 1 TD
Roy Williams: 55 yds receiving
Patrick Crayton: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 25 yds receiving
Martellus Bennett: 25 yds receiving, 1 TD
Marion Barber: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD/ 15 yds receiving
Tashard Choice: 45 yds rushing

Cardinals @ Eagles (Waldman)
Kurt Warner/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald/Steve Breaston/Jerheme Urban
Tim Hightower (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles season: CIN
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.7/19.3/8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Although the Eagles defense has faced the dynamic duos of Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and the up and coming crew of Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, none of these outside combos are remotely on the same plane as the wrecking crew of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. On the other hand, Kurt Warner has not faced a defense that blitzes as aggressively as Jim Johnson’s unit. Last year’s match up with Pittsburgh might be the closest thing to looking at a match up against a physical, blitz-oriented defense. The problem is the Steelers play the 3-4 and the Eagles run the 4-3.
What we do know is that the more Philly blitzes, the more likely Arizona’s receivers see single coverage and as long as Warner gets rid of the ball quickly and allow his receivers to do the dirty work, this offense will continue to take flight. I think this is a game where Boldin, Breaston, and Urban are more likely to get the bulk of receptions. The Eagles have good tacklers in the secondary, so I don’t expect any huge plays after the catch. This will be a game where the Cardinals will have to nickel and dime their way downfield and hope they can find a good match up for Fitzgerald or Boldin in the red area.

Running Game Thoughts: Other than that week against the Rams, I didn’t know the Cardinals had a ground game between the 20s. Tim Hightower does deserve some credit as a goal line runner, but with Boldin and Fitzgerald on the outside defenses must play the pass. Don’t expect much from the Cardinals running game except in the redzone.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 260 yds passing, 2 TD, 2 INT
Anquan Boldin: 115 yds receiving 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Steve Breaston: 65 yds receiving
Jerheme Urban: 35 yds receiving
Tim Hightower: 35 yds rushing 1 TD

Donovan McNabb/DeSean Jackson/Jason Avant/Kevin Curtis/L.J. Smith/Hank Basket/Brent Celek
Brian Westbrook/Lorenzo Booker/(vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: NYJ, WAS, SEA
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: SF and CAR
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.9 (23.8 total)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.4/18.8/7.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.5

Passing Game Thoughts: This would be a game tailor made for Brian Westbrook if he were healthy. I would presume Clancy Pendergast, the Cardinals defensive coordinator, is licking his chops at the thought of blitzing Dockett, Dansby, and Wilson in this match up especially with a hobbled franchise back just trying to hold down the fort. I believe McNabb will come out much sharper than he has looked in recent weeks, but I’m thinking fantasy owners will be expecting too much to ask for a phenomenal rebound effort. Expect 1-2 big plays, but not enough to propel the Eagles to victory. Still, I think if you’re looking for a decent fantasy effort from McNabb, you’ll find it here.

Running Game Thoughts: Are you kidding? Correll Buckhalter has a sprained MCL and Westbrook looks like he’s running in quicksand. With a short week, this running game is merely window dressing for Thursday night. Only expect something from Westy on a good play call in the red area where he can waltz into the endzone.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 285 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int.
DeSean Jackson: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Curtis: 65 yds receiving
Jason Avant: 15 yds receiving, 1 TD
Hank Baskett: 10 yds receiving
Brent Celek: 35 yds receiving
L.J. Smith: 35 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 30 yds rushing/ 40 yds receiving

49ers @ Bills (Waldman)
Shaun Hill/Bryant Johnson/Isaac Bruce/Jason Hill/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: STL, ARI, KC
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills season: SEA, ARI, KC
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.3 (top 3 WRs or 21.9 total)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.7 (or 17.4 total)
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.8/19.3/7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bills are a team that is susceptible to a versatile runner and a big-play tight end. If Vernon Davis continues to make strides, Shaun Hill will be successful with throwing balls to the TE and his bell cow, Frank Gore. Kansas City and Arizona were successful spreading out this Bills defense and San Francisco can do the same thing. The question is will Mike Singletary allow Mike Martz to do so. I think they will do it enough to be productive, weather permitting. Isaac Bruce returned to life for fantasy owners and I expect him to put another nice game together. This won’t be a 300-yard day for Hill, but I think 250 yards isn’t out of the question.

Running Game Thoughts: Just an editorial comment here: I hate the formations the 49ers use with Gore as a runner. They set him too close to the line of scrimmage, hoping he can take advantage of a small opening on a quick hitter for a long run. Gore has good vision and enough quickness to allow blocks to develop. I guess the problem is the Niners offensive line hasn’t been very good on the ground – or Mike Martz simply doesn’t know how to best use his back. Back to the task at hand: Look for Gore to have about 150 total yards from scrimmage in a close game.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 245 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bryant Johnson: 55 yds receiving
Isaac Bruce: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Hill: 35 yds receiving
Vernon Davis: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Frank Gore: 110 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving

Trent Edwards/Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson/Lee Evans/Josh Reed
Robert Royal/Derek Schouman (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season: NE
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the 49ers season: NE and DAL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.3 (27.9 total)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 25.5/37.3/2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.5

Passing Game Thoughts: This team is susceptible to speedy receivers and Buffalo has given Trent Edwards enough time to hit some deep throws. This week, I think Lee Evans is in store for a long score, especially off the play action to Marshawn Lynch. Josh Reed has become a reliable possession receiver with each passing week and Lynch does enough as a check down option to give Edwards the opportunity to spread force the Niners to cover the whole field. There is no chance you’ll mistake the Bills for the Patriots offense right now, but at the point New England faced San Francisco these units were similar. Look for Edwards have his typical, competent day the he’d have prior to the Arizona knock out.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills running game is built to wear out its opponents. Both Lynch and Jackson should get enough touches to accomplish this purpose, but it will be highly dependent upon how well the Buffalo defense can contain the Niners passing attack early in the game. The other thing standing in the way is Buffalo’s unimaginative play calling on the ground and Marshawn Lynch’s tendency to dance at the point of attack rather than hitting the hole aggressively. The Niners linebacker corps will maul Lynch if he goes this route. Fortunately Fred Jackson, although less talented, is more disciplined in this respect. I expect the Bills to get into the Niners redzone frequently enough for a couple of rushing scores.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 265 yds passing 1 TD/ 20 rushing yds and 1 TD
Lee Evans: 115 yds receiving, 1 TD
Josh Reed: 55 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 25 yds receiving
Derek Schouman: 15 yds receiving, 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 45 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 55 yds rushing/10 yds receiving

Steelers @ Patriots (Marcoccio)
Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Nate Washington/Heath Miller
Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: NYJ, SD, DEN
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: SF, IND
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 4.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 24.1/21.6/7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has been under siege much of this season because the Pittsburgh o-line has failed to protect him. While he has performed reasonably well, most fantasy owners have likely soured on him as a QB1 due to his inconsistency. This is the week to get him back in your line-up because the Patriots have been vulnerable through the air and Willie Parker’s knee remains balky. Hines Ward is about as consistent from year to year as a WR can be and is having another fine season. He should be up for a game against what has been a fierce rival in recent years. Santonio Holmes has not lived up to off-season hype, but should be a good start this week due to the aforementioned reasons. Heath Miller has been banged up, missed some time and has been asked to stay in and block a lot when healthy due to the poor Steeler o-line, so he should be avoided even if he plays this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Fast Willie Parker who missed four games with a knee injury, came back and has since re-injured his knee and now his shoulder. He cannot be counted on for fantasy purposes until he strings together a few healthy games. Parker is listed as questionable for Week 13. Mewelde Moore has been a more than adequate replacement from an NFL and a fantasy perspective and will be useful in ppr leagues whether Parker plays or not. New England has been a mediocre run defense from a yardage perspective but has managed to keep most RBs they have faced out of the end zone. Gary Russell is a decent desperation play because he’s been doing well as a short yardage back, but don’t count on a lot from him.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 305 yds passing, 2 TDs / 2 INT
Hines Ward: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 65 yds receiving
Nate Washington: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 25 yards receiving
Willie Parker: 35 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 55 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Matt Cassell/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Benjamin Watson
Sammy Morris/Kevin Faulk (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: HOU, CLE, NYG
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: CLE, BAL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.9/15.6/6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Cassell is the first QB in Patriot history to throw back to back 400-yard games – imagine that. My main criticism of Cassell has been his inability to throw deep to Randy Moss, but last week’s performance where Randy Moss grabbed 3 TDs, two of which went for over 25 yards, somewhat counters said criticism. Perhaps he is growing as a QB from week to week. Moss and Wes Welker both went for over 100 yards last week and Jabar Gaffney has started to get more involved as well in recent weeks. A heavy Pittsburgh pass rush could force the Patriots to play “small ball” meaning look for Wes Welker and RB Kevin Faulk to see a lot of short passes.

Running Game Thoughts: After a nice run as a fill-in RB, BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ role seems to be limited, rendering him useless to fantasy owners. Sammy Morris should see the majority of carries, but it seems the Pats have found a new identity as a passing team so those carries may be limited. Kevin Faulk continues to be a good flex player in ppr leagues and could have a very nice week as mentioned above.

Projections:
Matt Cassell: 275 yds passing 2 TDs / 30 yds rushing
Randy Moss: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Benjamin Watson: 35 yds receiving
Kevin Faulk: 35 yds rushing / 60 yds receiving
Sammy Morris: 65 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Broncos @ Jets (Marcoccio)
Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Brandon Stokely/Daniel Graham
Peyton Hillis/Tatum Bell (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: ARI
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.8/20.4/6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has slowed since his torrid start, but he is still capable of huge weeks and this could be one of them. The Jets statistically have been vulnerable to the pass. While their stout run defense forces teams to put the ball in the air which inflates their passing yardage numbers, there are some holes in the pass defense as well. As I have stated numerous times, the Jets have been like Christmas morning to opposing TEs, as they just keep giving. Calvin Pace and Eric Barton have done a fine overall job but they are stretched in pass coverage. This could be the week that Tony Sheffler bounces back after struggling since his return from a groin injury. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal will not have it as easy, as Darrell Rivas and the recently signed Ty Law are playing well, but should still be in your line-up as the Broncos will be throwing to stay in the game.

Running Game Thoughts: Raise your hand if you knew that at some point this year the rookie fullback that blocked for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas would be an effective starting fantasy RB? Hey, dude in the blue shirt, you can put you’re your down hand now, no one believes you. Peyton Hillis is slow as molasses, but sees the hole and runs hard through it. He’s also a very nimble pass catcher out of the backfield. Tatum Bell has not received significant carries since he was recently signed too ass depth to the decimated unit, but he may eventually be worked into the offense. The Jets run defense has been very effective as Kris Jenkins has been a monster in the middle. Despite the tough match up, Hillis may not be a bad start, especially in ppr leagues, since he sees a lot of targets in the passing game.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 315 yds passing 2 TDs
Brandon Marshall: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 40 yds receiving
Brandon Stokely: 35 yds receiving
Tony Sheffler: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Peyton Hillis: 40 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Tatum Bell: 35 yards rushing

Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Dustin Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: NYJ, SD, IND
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: NYJ, IND, BUF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.8/14.1/10.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 25.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre has gone from being a gunslinger to being a surgeon. He has completed 75% of his passes during the team’s current five-game winning streak. He is now playing with the smarts, accuracy, and decision making of Chad Pennington while still possessing that Brett Favre arm. The way he threaded the ball into Coles in the end zone last week was spectacular. Rookie TE Dustin Keller has become a big part of the offense and now receives a lot of third down looks. He is gaining more and more of Favre’s trust. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles are benefiting from teams still respecting Favre’s strong arm and are able to get open underneath and run after the catch. The Jets have been conservative in their attack plan (only 3 passes in the last five games have gone for over 25 yards), but don’t be surprised to see a few downfield looks against Denver’s porous secondary just to keep them honest.

Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones ran tough while the Jets offensive line manhandled the feared Tennessee front four. Jones leads the AFC in rushing and last season’s one rushing TD seems like a distant memory. Leon Washington does everything well and in addition to his superior physical attributes is a very smart player. If you watch his 70-yard TD run last week, just look at the subtle way he turns his shoulders just as the DB looks like he may close in, allowing him to shed the defender and continue up-field. The Denver run defense is amongst the worst in the league, so the Jets should have another successful day running the ball. Set it and forget it.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 225 yds passing 2 TDs
Laveranues Coles: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery : 80 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Leon Washington: 45 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 115 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Giants @ Redskins (Marcoccio)
Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Steve Smith/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: NYG, CLE, SEA
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins season: NYG, DAL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.9/8.3/9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning showed last week that despite many weeks of pedestrian numbers, he can throw the ball when needed. He went toe to toe with Kurt Warner and came out on top of the shootout in the desert. This week against the tough run defense of the ‘Skins he may be asked to carry the offense again – although the Giants have proven they can run on anybody. What makes starting the other skill players in the Giants’ passing game tough though is the fact that Eli has developed into a QB that can spread around the “love” by not locking onto any WR and instead finding the open man, even if it’s little used full back Madison Hedgecock. Plaxico Burress’ hamstring may keep him out of action so be sure to follow his status if you are thinking about starting him. If he cannot go, consider Dominek Hixon as a decent alternative.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs, much to the dismay of many fantasy owners, was a last-minute scratch against Arizona. Jacobs’ absence opened the way for hard-running backup, Derrick Ward to total 90 yards and a TD. Jacobs should be back this week and the Giants should be able to run the ball on Washington, despite their top 10 ranking, if they decide to go in that direction. Ward would probably be a safe play either way as he gets enough carries even when Jacobs is healthy, but Jacob owners should be a little cautious during this important part of the fantasy calendar. If you have a safer and better option consider benching Jacobs until he shows his knee can handle the workload.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 235 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Plaxico Burress: 15 yds receiving
Amani Toomer: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 45 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Derrick Ward: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 25 yds rushing

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: WAS, STL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: WAS, SF, PHI, PIT
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.2/25.7/1.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Jason Campbell has had a nice season leading the Redskins to a 7-4 record, and at one point after stringing together a few nice games he was in the conversation regarding fantasy QB1s. Although that’s no longer a good discussion, he is a nice, dependable QB2 that can win you a week or two if needed. Santana Moss, on the other hand, has been more consistent than in year’s past and has been a low-end WR1 for your fantasy team. This week, the Redskins face an improved Giants secondary and one of the fiercest pass rushes in the NFL. What makes the Giants more impressive than other top pass rushing teams like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and the New York Jets is that, unlike those teams, the Giants do not have to rely on blitz packages to get to the QB. Because they can often rush with just the front four, their pass coverage can be more effective with more bodies in the mix. You likely have better options than most Redskin passing games players beside Moss and Chris Cooley. They have been among the best at their positions all season, and while I would temper my expectations for them, they should be in your line-up.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis leads the NFL in rushing yards, but will face a steep challenge when the Giants come down to Washington. The Giants are well adept at stopping the run and have shut down most RBs they have faced this season Former NFL MVP Shaun Alexander was released this week which means Ladell Betts is likely healthy enough to back up Portis. However, Portis is a workhorse leaving little scraps for the other RBs on the team so obviously don’t activate Betts just because he’s healthy. You should however follow the old fantasy football axiom of “never benching your studs” and activate Portis as he is more than capable of putting up numbers even against a tough defense like the Giants.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 175 yds passing, 1 TD
Santana Moss: 60 yds receiving
Antwaan Randle El: 35 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Clinton Portis: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD / 5 yards receiving

Dolphins @ Rams (Eakin)
Chad Pennington/Ted Ginn Jr./Ernest Wilford/Anthony Fasano
Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Bears
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: n/a
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 26.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.0/9.5/9.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 37.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams have been solid against the pass the last few weeks. They went from cellar dwellers to 20th in QB Fpts allowed. Chad Pennington will be their toughest test since Kurt Warner was in town. Pennington is coming off his biggest stat day in a loss to New England last week. Pennington has been on fire this season and is a big reason why the Dolphins are only one game out of the wildcard race with five games to play. The loss to the Patriots ended a four-game win streak for the Dolphins. The biggest news here is that leading WR Greg Camarillo is done for the year following a knee injury last week. Make no mistake though, the engine in the attack is Pennington and he will perform respectably no matter who runs the routes for him. Rookie Devon Bess will start and his speed, quickness, and hands have impressed the Dolphins brass. Ernest Wilford will fill in see more time in a rotation. TE Anthony Fasano should also be used more prominently. The Dolphins should move the ball well through the air but I think Pennington’s stsats will be somewhat weakened by their run focused game plan.

Running Game Thoughts: The Dolphins were unable to run the ball this time around against New England. You knew the Pats would be on a mission to stuff the run after the earlier season embarrassment that has led to the direct snap experiment from virtually every NFL team this year. The Dolphins will want to get the run game and Ronnie Brown back on track. The Rams are poor at stopping the run so Ronnie and Ricky should have big days. The Dolphins have a physical style in the trenches that St. Louis doesn’t share. The small and quick Rams will get out muscled at the point of attack as they have all year. A great match up here is the two top picks in the draft, Chris Long versus Jake Long. Jake Long has played well this year and should have the upper hand.

Projections:
Chad Pennington: 265 yds passing/1 TD
Devon Bess: 65 yds receiving
Ted Ginn Jr.: 50 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 45 yds receiving/1 TD
Ricky Williams: 40 yds rushing
Ronnie Brown: 90 yds rushing/2 TD/25 receiving

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Donnie Avery
Steven Jackson (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.7/25.3/5.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Marc Bulger is expected to play despite getting a severe bell ringing last week. He missed the entire game save the first series. Bulger has become erratic in the pocket after last year’s shellacking. It seems he has happy feet and rushes even when he has protection. It’s tough for a QB to play in Mike Martz’s spread offense and then suffer a beating last year because of a decimated offensive line. Once you lose that pocket presence it is tough to ever get it back. David Carr had the physical skills to be a franchise quarterback, but his offensive line in Houston allowed that potential to get beat out of him. Miami plays an aggressive 3-4 combo and Joey Porter is an effective outside rusher that will make Bulger have a long day.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson is expected to play, but he has missed too much time to think he’ll step in and be a super-stud. The recent stint on the sidelines lasted four games due to a deep thigh bruise. Jackson could be rusty and has a tough task facing the 11th best rush defense in the Dolphins. Where Jackson may see some success is in short dump offs out of the backfield as he is an excellent receiver as well as physical runner. If he plays the focus will be squarely on him and he is likely not in very good playing shape. He will have to have success early or he won’t have a good day. Treat Jackson as a RB2 this week until he shakes gets back on track.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 165 yds passing/1 TD/2 INT
Torry Holt: 70 yds
Donnie Avery: 60 yds/1 TD
Steven Jackson: 60 yds/1 TD/25 receiving

Falcons @ Chargers (Eakin)
Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/Harry Douglas
Michael Turner (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: Bears
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: n/a
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.4/21.6/11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The overachieving Falcons come in to this game on a roll and now get to face off against the worst ranked pass defense in the league. Rookie sensation Matt Ryan does not play as well on the road but he should be comfortable in the pocket and therefore be able to find his go to new star Roddy White. White is a top-five fantasy performer this year and it has translated in real production for his team. He will have a size advantage on Quentin Jammer so the Chargers may prefer to have Antonio Cromartie facing him. As teams have begun to adjust to Whites production by lending safety help to his side, other Falcon WRs are stepping up on the opposite him. Last week, rookie Harry Douglas had a career day and in other weeks, Michael Jenkins has been the beneficiary of White’s attention. Either way, credit the offensive line for its protection and Matt Ryan for playing well beyond his years. Ryan appears to be a superstar in the making and with three emerging receivers the Atlanta future looks promising and Michael Vick is a faint memory. The Chargers have not figured out how to get pressure on the QB yet.

Running Game Thoughts: Who could have predicted Michael Turner would return to face his former team with this kind of production under his belt and Tomlinson faltering? It’s his Falcons and not the Chargers that are 7-4 not 4-7. My how quickly things change is this league. Turner scored four TDs last week and is pushing Clinton Portis and Matt Forte for the number one fantasy RB of the year. Turner reminds me former Falcon Jamaal Anderson. He is short with tree trunks for legs and is very tough to bring down without gang tackling. Where Turner exceeds Anderson is in breakaway speed. Turner has big-play ability that rarely sees him get caught from behind. The Falcons main task to get Turner loose will be to neutralize DT Jamal Williams. Williams had not been himself earlier this year due to injury, but his play has improved of late. Center Todd McClure will probably need help from one of his guards on Williams which means MLB Stephen Cooper will need to be able to get to Turner before his gets momentum. Otherwise the punishing power rushing of the Falcons will wear down the San Diego secondary. The Falcons may have to pass to open up the lanes for Turner because the Chargers have done pretty well against the run at home this year.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 265 yds/2 TDs
Roddy White: 110 yds/1 TD
Michael Jenkins: 60 yards/1 TD
Harry Douglas: 55 yards
Michael Turner: 115 yds/1 TD

Phillip Rivers/Chris Chambers/Vincent Jackson/Malcom Floyd/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs.ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season:
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season:
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 30.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 24.0/25.9/7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.2

Passing Game Thoughts: The Falcons are a middle of the pack pass defense on the road, traveling all the way to the west coast, and facing one of the hottest QBs in the league in Phillip Rivers. The Chargers are also the more motivated team knowing they need to finish strong to make the playoffs. They could very well finish 7-9 and still win the AFC West division. They will be hungry to get the ship righted as Atlanta arrives off a big win over the Panthers. This could be a trap game for the Falcons. I expect both teams to move the ball through the air well, but Rivers to have the better day and get the victory. San Diego has similar tools as Atlanta with the wild card being TE Antonio Gates and home field advantage. Keep an eye on WR Malcom Floyd. He is quietly becoming one of Rivers’ favorite targets and may be decent waiver fodder.

Running Game Thoughts: Tomlinson managed to gain 84 yards against a Colts defense not exactly known for run stopping. Worse yet, last week was one of Tomlinson’s highest totals this year. What’s troubling is that Tomlinson claims to be back to full strength from his toe injury. During the Colts game commentator John Madden offered some insight, noting two things with the Chargers:

First, the offensive line is not as physical as it once was. They have settled in to more of a finesse pass blocking line that doesn’t fire off the line effectively. Two, Tomlinson seems to be cutting well, but he doesn’t finish runs like he used to. Tomlinson has always been a back that was able to avoid square contact and slide forward for a couple extra yards before going down. He is going down at the point of the tackles now and if you consider that over the course of twenty carries in a game it really adds up to that extra 20-40 yards he isn’t getting per game anymore. Hopefully, we will see the old Tomlinson next year, but it’s quite possible he has hit that RB threshold ala Larry Johnson. Tomlinson’s reign as a top fantasy pick overall is over.

Projections:
Phillip Rivers: 325 yds/3 TDs
Vincent Jackson: 90 yards/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 65 yds/1 TD
Malcolm Floyd: 50 yards
Antonio Gates: 60 yards/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 80 yds/1 TD/20 receiving

Chiefs @ Raiders (Eakin)
Tyler Thigpen/DeWayne Bowe/Mark Bradley/Tony Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Chiefs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 9.9/14.2/.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week I discussed the futures of Tyler Thigpen and Buffalo QB Trent Edwards as franchise QBs. Clearly Edwards, Stanford grad that he is, was smart enough to listen. Thigpen had been playing well, but not winning the games. Last week he didn’t even play that well against the Bills, throwing a couple of picks and fumbling once. Now, the Chiefs travel to Oakland for the toilet Bowl of the division. Unfortunately, neither team is in the hunt for the grand prize if they lose; the Lions have a pretty good lock on the top spot in the draft next year.

Thigpen has a tough draw in an Oakland pass defense that has been playing well, including holding down the explosive Denver pass attack last week. I certainly didn’t see that one coming. Anyway, I think that teams may start adjusting to the new Chiefs offense and Thigpen will find a tougher road from here on out. Oakland should do well here with Nnamdi Asomugha taking DeWayne Bowe out of the game. Mark Bradley and Tony Gonzalez will both need to have big days in order for the Chiefs and Thigpen to put up some solid fantasy numbers. Expect Thigpen to continue his struggles, especially if Mark Bradley’s calf injury forces him to miss the game. Then we’re looking at Devard Darling and Will Franklin again – neither were effective at the start the season, hence the acquisition of Bradley.

Running Game Thoughts: Larry Johnson had a respectable total last week due in large part to a 63-yard run. The rest of his day consisted of six carries for 18 yards while Jamaal Charles had 22 yards on two carries and 45 yards receiving. Again, Charles falls prey to the depth chart despite being the most productive per attempt RB for the Chiefs all year long. Herm Edwards doesn’t see Charles as an every down back because of his size. Of course, the same was thought of Steve Slaton and he seems to be doing o.k. Charles is always a threat to hit some big plays, but he is quite a gamble given his lack of consistent opportunity. Johnson will start and be the safer fantasy play. He can have a good day because Oakland is poor against the run and does not have the offensive firepower to force the Chiefs to abandon their rush attack.

Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 215 yards/1 TD/2 INT
DeWayne Bowe: 65 yds
Mark Bradley: 70 yds/1 TD
Tony Gonzalez: 80 yds
Larry Johnson: 80 yds/1 TD

JaMarcus Russell/Ashlie Lelie/Chaz Schilens/Zach Miller
Justin Fargas/Darren McFadden (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Raiders
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Raiders
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 3.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 1.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 20.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 26.0/21.8/7.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 26.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The big news in the Raider camp is the big day Ashlie Lelie had against his former mates in Denver last week. It’s a little soon to rush JaMarcus Russell and Lelie in to your starting lineups just yet. The Chiefs are played most of the year with some solid pass defense performances but have fallen on hard times. Tamba Hali has not been the same without Jared Allen. This is an interesting match up because JaMarcus Russell likes to take big shots downfield and the Chiefs like to play deep safeties to prevent it. When interim coach Tom Cable took over his philosophy was to pass more than the previous regime. The loss of Javon Walker hurt that capability so the Raiders are happy to see Lelie make the transition. As I touched upon last week, there is nothing wrong physically with Ronald Curry; he is just in the owner’s doghouse for undisclosed reasons. Despite the anomaly last week, TE Zach Miller is the only good Oakland fantasy option where the passing game is involved. Russell and crew are going to have to prove their performance against Denver before being taken seriously.

Running Game Thoughts: When interim coach Tom Cable took the team over he tried to establish a more pass-oriented approach on offense. However the key to Oakland’s big victory over Denver was the resurgence of their running game. Darren McFadden returned to the lineup for some much needed diversity. He didn’t have a big day number-wise, but moving him around all over the field gives the defense more things to worry about. Justin Fargas went over 100 yards, taking advantage of the weak Denver run defense. The Chiefs run defense is just as poor as Denver’s so if Oakland is to win, they will need to pick up where they left off last week. Fargas is in line for another solid day as a RB2 and I wouldn’t feel bad about starting McFadden as a flex player.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 175 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Ashlie Lelie: 65 yards
Chaz Schilens: 55 yds
Zach Miller: 60 yds/1 TD
Darren McFadden: 25 yds/35 yds receiving
Justin Fargas: 90 yds/1 TD

Bucs @ Saints (Dhawan)
Jeff Garcia/Antonio Bryant/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard/Michael Clayton/Jerramy Stevens/Alex Smith
Warrick Dunn/Cadillac Williams (vs. NO)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +39.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +22.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +9.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +8.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Jeff Garcia took the first quarter off last week, allowing the woeful a spotted lead and a chance to feel good about themselves. He then proceeded to complete a crisp 72% of his throws for low yards and 2 TDs. Analysts continue to laud his heart, grit, and leadership of this team that has less talent than most playoff contenders, but is overflowing with intangibles. Garcia continues to make defenses groan with his ability to break contain, makes throws from odd release points, and avoid costly mistakes. He makes this squad a scary reality playoff threat, and blesses owners as a consistent fantasy QB2/QB3. Expect a usually solid performance versus a Saints secondary that still got shredded last week [but did uncharacteristically pick off Rodgers 3 times]. Remember Joey Galloway usually explodes in this match up, and is due for a big game sometime this injury marred season.

Running Game Thoughts: The great scene of Cadillac Williams returning to the field was an inspiration to both reality and fantasy football fans last week. After nearly 2 full seasons recovering from a patellar tear, he showed nice late game stamina with 16 carries and should continue to share a load for the balanced Bucs attack. Warrick Dunn racked up 90 yards as he should have versus the Lions, and looks to have a nice game this week. The Packers fell out of contention and had to abandon the run last week, but Ryan Grant was posting nice stats until that point.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 225 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Antonio Bryant: 60 rec
Joey Galloway: 55 rec/1 TD
Ike Hilliard: 40 rec
Michael Clayton: 30 rec
Jerramy Stevens: 25 rec
Alex Smith: 25 rec
Warrick Dunn: 80 rush/ 1TD
Cadillac Williams: 45 rush/1 TD

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Lance Moore/Billy Miller/Jeremy Shockey
Reggie Bush/Pierre Thomas/Deuce McAllister (vs. TB)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -37.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -27.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -37.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -29.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is still heating up the MVP conversation. Now he faces the task of shattering the league norms of MVPs usually playing for playoff teams. Breaking Dan Marino’s single season passing yards mark [5084 yards] would be bittersweet of he cannot squeeze the Saints offense into the playoff tournament. He is turning WR Lance Moore into a household name. He reminds older fantasy players of once-upon-a-time WR Keith Poole [also Caucasian with a tough, gritty style of play and propensity for longer inspiring TDs]. Brees is definitely among the fantasy MVPs this season, outperforming tier1 QBs with whom he was mentioned in preseason. Expect a normal game, as his stats in the opener versus Tampa were still 340 yards and 3 TDs, with a healthy Reggie Bush in the lineup, who returns this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Deuce McAllister was a nice looking fantasy option while Reggie Bush was out. Even more explosive was RB Pierre Thomas taking advantage of his snaps to post nice yardage and a multi-TD game. Reggie Bush has practiced twice this week and expects to return full speed to the lineup. Count on him to contribute as a receiver first, and get his groove back more slowly on the ground. McAllister and Thomas may still hold TD value this week.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 320 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: 80 rec
Lance Moore: 80/1 TD
Billy Miller: 40 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 50 rec/ 1TD
Reggie Bush: 35 rush/ 65 rec/ 1 TD
Deuce McAllister: 40 rush
Pierre Thomas: 35 rush/ 1TD

Jaguars @ Texans (Dhawan)
David Garrard/Jerry Porter/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie Williams/Matt Jones/Marcedes Lewis/Greg Estandia
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. HOU)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -5.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -8.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +15.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +8.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: QB David Garrard continued his dreadful season last week at home versus the Vikings. The opening play started the snowball effect for the team, and it finished with Garrard tossing two more INTs for the year and having RB Maurice Jones-Drew as the leading receiver with 9 catches for 113 yards. Matt Jones could not post meaningful stats similar to his October performances, as he was still hampered by his thigh injury. After a discovery in the lineup, Jerry Porter went back into witness protection with just 1 catch for 14 yards. This match up was a boon earlier in the season, and should be a lifesaver for fantasy owners still holding these players on rosters now.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew was paralyzed on the ground last week against the rush defense of the Vikings, but made his presence felt in PPR leagues with 9 catches and 113 yards. Fred Taylor is losing the fervor to reach 12000 yards with the club, saying this week he sees the impending move off the roster this off-season amidst contractual and front office details. Do not expect huge numbers, as the Texans rush defense stiffened last week and corralled Browns runners to below 100 total yards.

Projections:
David Garrard: 235 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Jerry Porter: 30 rec
Marcedes Lewis: 40 rec
Dennis Northcutt: 40 rec
Reggie Williams: 40 rec/1 TD
Matt Jones: 65 rec/1 TD
Fred Taylor: 75 rush/1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew: 45 rush/1 TD

Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Andre Davis/Owen Daniels
Steve Slaton (vs. JAX)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -12.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -9.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -5.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Sage Rosenfels did indeed make 3 mistakes last week [2INTs and 1 fumble], but his 75% accuracy and the defense baled him out for a 16-6 road victory. QB Matt Schaub’s prognosis has been extended 3-4 weeks, so Rosenfels will continue his off-season audition. WR Andre Johnson has his fifth game with 10 or more catches, but continues to disappoint owners in the TD department [only 3 total]. Fellow receiver Kevin Walter is the flavor of the month, and should aide several fantasy teams for the playoff chase. Walter has 4TDs in his past 5 games and 4 games with over 70 yards receiving in that same stretch. TE Owen Daniels has been quiet since his 11 grab explosion 3 weeks ago, but did roast these Jags for 7 receptions and 87 yards in the first meeting. Expect more of the same this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Steve Slaton gets promoted to full-feature RB load, as HB Ahman Green finally wore down and got injured. His season was actually remarkable considering his recent track record. He had made solid contributions with rugged runs and nice change of pace from Slaton. Now the rookie has a chance to impress his coach and teammates with a rejuvenated run of December games, and fantasy owners will welcome the high carries he should be allotted. He followed the home disaster against the Ravens with a huge game versus Indy punctuated by his club record 75 yard TD burst. The Jags will remember his 83 receiving yards and TD earlier this season. Expect a great air and ground game for Slaton this week.

Projections:
Sage Rosenfels: 295 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Andre Johnson: 90 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 60 rec/ 1TD
Andre Davis: 30 rec
Owen Daniels: 50 rec
Steve Slaton: 75 rush/55 rec/1 TD

Ravens @ Benglas (Mack)
Joe Flacco / Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap
Willis McGahee / Le’Ron McClain / Ron Rice (vs. Cincinnati)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Pittsburgh
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Pittsburgh
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Remember the thought you had when Joe Flacco was named the starting QB in Baltimore by default? Remember how you thought the stock of every fantasy option on the Ravens not named Willis McGahee would plummet because of Flacco’s presence? Now three months after fantasy draft day, Flacco is having the last laugh. While he’s not lighting up scoreboards across the league, Flacco has been a steady influence to an offense that has yearned for a QB for years. Flacco has tossed nine TDs and only two interceptions in his last six games; that’s good stuff for even the most seasoned fantasy QB.

Deference must be paid to Derrick Mason. The ol’ veteran has given the Ravens their only legit threat in the passing game. Mason has twice as many receptions than the next Raven, and although he’s been limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury, all indications are that he will suit up. Cincy’s secondary has played surprisingly well for a team with only one win on the season; they will pose a good challenge to the Raven passing game. But look for Mason to be his steady self, with Todd Heap providing Flacco with a reliable target down the middle of the field.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s difficult to get an accurate reading on the Ravens’ running game. Incumbent starter Willis McGahee has been ineffective the last two games, Le’Ron McClain is battling an injury and Ray Rice has only 23 carries over the last three games. Rice may end up being the most reliable back for Baltimore in this game, since he brings another dimension to the offense with his involvement in the passing game. His 27 receptions are second only to Mason’s 57, and with the Bengals’ dearth of quality linebackers, Rice should be able to exploit that weakness of Cincy’s defense.

The Bengals’ defense has played poorly enough to have only one win this season but well enough to not be a complete laughing stock a la the Detroit Lions. They have been able to contain such runners as Thomas Jones (65 rushing yards), Steve Slaton (53 yards) and most recently Brian Westbrook (60 yards). So whoever suits up for the Ravens at running back and gets the bulk of the carries, it will not be a walk in the park. Both offenses lack explosive playmakers, so this game should prove to be a close, low-scoring affair with the running game remaining in effect for the duration. For that reason, whoever gets the lion’s share of the action this week (my money is on Rice) should be a viable fantasy option.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 170 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Mason: 75 yards
Mark Clayton: 45 yards
Todd Heap: 55 yards / 1 TD
Ron Rice: 80 yards / 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 30 yards
Le’Ron McClain: 35 yards / 1 TD

Ryan Fitzpatrick / TJ Houshmandzadeh / Chad Johnson / Chris Henry
Cedric Benson (vs. Baltimore)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Cleveland
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Cleveland
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 6

Passing Game Thoughts: Here’s a sign that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a complete bum: the last two games against two of the toughest and most complex defenses in the league (Philly and Pittsburgh), Fitzpatrick faired well. He threw a total of two TDs with only one INT in both games, and while that’s nothing to get excited about, many QBs have done a lot worse against these two squads. So what does that mean this week against Baltimore? Well, the Ravens employ a similar style of aggressive defense as Philly and Pittsburgh, so Fitzpatrick should maintain a certain standard of play without completely soiling his pants.

Speaking of maintaining a certain level of play, TJ Houshmandzadeh’s 77 receptions is tied for third most in the league and almost double the number of receptions of fellow wide-out Chad Johnson. Neither of Cincy’s starting WRs has a per-catch average of more than 10 yards, so that makes defending the former dynamic duo that much easier—especially Johnson. TJ has never been a speed burner who catches downfield passes with regularity, but that was always Johnson’s most trusted asset. Now with Carson Palmer out of the line-up, Johnson has had to modify his game and thus has become a fantasy afterthought in the process. The Ravens’ secondary has had lapses at times this season, but they should hold it together long enough to keep Johnson under wraps. TJ should get his usual half dozen catches, but scoring may prove a tough chore.

Running Game Thoughts: Color me impressed with the way Cedric Benson has jelled with his new teammates. Sure, he hasn’t been a game-changing force in the running game, but there’s palpable improvement over the way Chris Henry ran the ball early in the season. He has struggled mightily in the last two games against Philly and Pittsburgh, but the fact that he remains Cincy’s one-trick pony in the running game makes him a bottom-of-the-barrel option in week 13.

The Ravens’ defense is in the top five of every conceivable category, which means it could be another long day for Cincy’s offense—and in particular its running game. The Bengals’ 29th ranked running attack vs. Baltimore’s 4th ranked run defense means only one thing: Benson should be kept on your bench. Other RBs with multi-dimensional skills often supplement their production with an involvement in the passing game, but Benson has only 11 receptions in seven games and is often taken out of the game on 3rd down. Stash Benson away on your bench.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 165 yards / 1 TD / 2 INT
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 60 yards / 1 TD
Chad Johnson: 45 yards
Chris Henry: 40 yards
Cedric Benson: 55 yards

Colts @ Browns (Mack)
Peyton Manning / Reggie Wayne / Marvin Harrison / Anthony Gonzalez / Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai (vs. Cleveland)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: New York Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Houston
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 7

Passing Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning got off to an un-Manning-like start in 2008. He threw nine INTs through the first eight games but has since returned to the Manning of old with nine TDs and only one INT in the last four games combined. The Colts travel to Cleveland this week to take on a Browns’ defense that has given up huge passing games to the likes of Sage Rosenfels (275 yards), David Garrard (283 yards) and Jay Cutler (447 yards). Browns cornerback Brandon McDonald has been torched recently, so don’t be surprised if Manning picks on #22 early and often with strikes both short and deep.

The Colts have struggled running the football all year and have had to rely on Manning’s arm to move the offense. As a result, four Indy receivers have at least 45 receptions. While that’s good for the Colts from an NFL perspective, it stinks for fantasy players because no one knows from game to game who will have a big day. All one can do is continue to start the usual suspects on the Colts offense and hope that Manning hooks up with your player enough to justify your putting that player in your line-up. Weather could play a factor in this one, as it always does in northeast Ohio during this time of year, so keep an eye on Mother Nature.

Running Game Thoughts: Outside of a good game by Joseph Addai several weeks ago against Houston and an impressive game by Dominic Rhodes at Green Bay more than a month ago, the Colts’ running game has been invisible all season. Offensive line struggles and just poor play by the running backs have plummeted Indy’s running attack to 30th in the league. And really, it hasn’t really looked that good. This is not your father’s Indianapolis running game, so if you have to rely on an Indy running back, do so with great trepidation and crossed fingers. The Browns have one of the league’s worst run defenses, but Indy is no longer equipped to exploit that weakness. This game will be won or lost by Manning chucking the rock around to Wayne, Harrison and Co., not Addai or Rhodes scampering through the defense. If you are forced to start one of the RBs, your expectations should be lowered.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 265 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT
Reggie Wayne: 130 yards / 2 TDs
Marvin Harrison: 55 yards
Anthony Gonzalez: 30 yards
Dallas Clark: 50 yards / 1 TD
Joseph Addai: 65 yards
Dominic Rhodes: 30 yards

Derek Anderson / Braylon Edwards / Donte Stallworth / Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. Indy)

Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Houston
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Baltimore
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 2.3

Passing Game Thoughts: The ineptness that is the Cleveland Browns passing offense continues, only this time with the old/new leader at the helm. Derek Anderson returns to the line-up after Brady Quinn was placed on injured reserve with a finger injury. Anderson completely stunk up the joint on a consistent basis during his days as a starter in 2008 and there’s no reason to think anything will change after his forced sabbatical. The Browns still have a useless running game to take pressure off the QB, they still have an overrated O-line that can’t seem to get out of its own way and they still have a group of receivers who either can’t stay healthy or can’t hold onto the football when its thrown to them. You couple all of that with a QB who struggles to complete 50 percent of his passes and what you have is a hot mess of an offense that’s better suited for someone else to worry about. They’re ranked 27th in the league in passing, and they go up against a defense this week that’s geared toward defending the pass. If you’re desperate, Edwards could be an okay possibility, or maybe even Winslow. Anyone else and you’re looking up the rear-end of a dead dog.

Running Game Thoughts: I drafted Jamal Lewis in the fourth round of this year’s fantasy draft, thinking that I had gotten a steal. Well, the only thing that’s been stolen is my trust in Lewis and the Cleveland running game as a whole. I traded him soon after he struggled against the “supposedly” vulnerable Denver run defense. It’s truly a painful sight to watch Lewis attempt to run the football. He’s a big, burly back who needs the O-line to create creases for him to run through; three-quarters through the season, they have been grossly unsuccessful. Ironically, the brief playing time that Jerome Harrison gets has shown what a back that’s capable of hitting the corner can do—something that Lewis hasn’t been able to do for some time. Indy’s Achilles heal is its run defense, but as is the case with the Colts, the Browns don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Lewis has been frustratingly average all season long, and there’s no reason to believe he will somehow morph into a reliable option at this late juncture of the season. His streak of sub-100 yard performances will continue this week. If you have a better, more consistent option, go that route; if not, good luck with Lewis.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 180 yards / 1 TDs / 2 INTs
Braylon Edwards: 65 yards
Donte Stallworth: 35 yards
Kellen Winslow: 75 yards / 1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 70 yards

Panthers @ Packers
Jake Delhomme / Steve Smith / Muhsin Muhammad / Dante Rosario
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart (vs. GB)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -17.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +12.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +23.3%

Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 225 pass /1 TD /1 INT
Steve Smith: 80 rec / 1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 50 rec
Dante Rosario: 25 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 85 rush / 25 rec / 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 20 rush

Aaron Rodgers / Greg Jennings / Donald Driver / Jordy Nelson / Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs CAR)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -19.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -21.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -1.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -10.2%

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 230 pass / 2 TD / 0 INT
Greg Jennings: 90 rec / 1 TD
Donald Driver: 50 rec
Jordy Nelson: 30 rec
Donald Lee: 35 rec / 1 TD
Ryan Grant: 80 rush / 10 rec / 1 TD

Bears @ Vikings
Kyle Orton / Rashied Davis / Brandon Lloyd / Devin Hester / Greg Olsen
Matt Forte (vs. MIN)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -4.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +15.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -26.0%

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 250 pass / 1 TD
Rashied Davis: 65 rec
Brandon Lloyd: 40 rec
Devin Hester: 40 rec
Greg Olsen: 45 rec / 1 TD
Matt Forte: 75 rush / 30 rec / 1 TD

Gus Frerotte / Bernard Berrian / Bobby Wade / Sidney Rice / Visanthe Schiancoe
Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor (vs CHI)

OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +19.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +11.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -17.1%

Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 200 pass / 1 TD
Bernard Berrian: 90 rec / 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 35 rec
Sidney Rice: 20 rec
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 rec / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 110 rush / 10 rec / 1 TD
Chester Taylor: 30 rush / 20 rec / 1 TD