11/14/08
NYJ @ NE | OAK
@ MIA | CLE @ BUF | BAL @ NYG
| PHI @ CIN | CHI @ GB | SD
@ PIT | NO @ KC
ARI @ SEA | STL @ SF | DEN
@ ATL | DET @ CAR | MIN @ TB
| HOU @ IND | TEN @ JAX
| DAL @ WAS
(Marcoccio)
Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Dustin
Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season:
NYJ, SD, IND
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season:
NYJ, IND, BUF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.45
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 5.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/25.9/2.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 8.7
Passing Game Thoughts: As he
did in Week 9 against Buffalo, Brett Favre once again played nothing
more than game manager against the Rams. But this time it may
have had something to do with a 17-0 lead after one quarter that
continued growing. He threw one TD in his 19 attempts, which went
to rookie TE Dustin Keller, who had his breakout day, gaining
over 100 yards, including a 54-yard reception down the middle
on a play action pass on the Jets second drive. Jerricho Cotchery
and Laveraneus Coles had quiet days with the Jets controlling
the ball on the ground. They played well in the past against the
Patriots, including hitting a few big plays for TDs. Chansi Stuckey
has quieted down after looking like Favre’s favorite target
in the early games, but he is still a dangerous slot receiver.
Sooner or later the Jets are going to need to unleash Brett again,
and it could be this week as the Pats play the run tough but can
be had through the air.
For the season, the Pats are ranked a mediocre 15th in passing
yards allowed (1,809), and have ceded 14 TDs in 9 games, so they
have been vulnerable through the air. They did slow down Trent
Edwards last week, who at one time was a dark horse MVP candidate.
Outside of Ellis Hobbs their secondary is not what it once was.
The Patriots have now lost their best pass rusher Adalius Thomas
– likely for the season – in last week’s contest.
They may have trouble getting to Favre behind an o-line that has
steadily improved all season. If they can’t pressure Favre
into mistakes they may allow him to have a nice day.
Running Game Thoughts: Thomas
Jones had a 149 yards rushing and scored 3 TDs against a very
bad Rams run defense. The offensive line was getting tremendous
push and opened holes Jones had likely never seen before since
his days at Virginia. Jones leads the AFC in rushing and now has
8 rushing TDS on the season (with 1 receiving TD) after scoring
1 rushing TD all of last season. Leon Washington is getting somewhat
overshadowed, but when you account for his special teams play
he may just be the Jets MVP. I mentioned last week that in the
past he has had difficulty breaking tackles and running inside,
but he has improved has improved his strength and balance and
has been effective inside and seldom goes down on first contact.
The Patriots are ranked 12th against the run giving up 100 yards
per game, but have held opponents to only 4 rushing TDs (and remarkably
they have all came in one game to Ronnie Brown). For the most
part they have been a very tough match up for opposing RBs (and
the worst possible match up over the last three weeks as seen
above). Rookie Jerrod Mayo has played very well and adds youth
and athleticism to what was an aging line backing crew, but will
now face a bigger burden with the aforementioned injury to Adalius
Thomas.
Projections:
Brett Favre: 245 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery : 70 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Leon Washington: 25 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 70 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving
Matt Cassell/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Benjamin
Watson
BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Kevin Faulk (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season:
NE, CIN, KC, BUF, StL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season:
NE, ARI, KC, BUF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.8/13.4/11.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.6
Passing Game Thoughts: Suddenly,
television pundits are claiming the Patriots are now winning “because
of” Matt Cassell and no longer “in spite of him”.
Guard Logan Mankins even went so far as to say “I would
rather have Matt than 99% of the quarterbacks in this league”.
Sure he would. While Cassell has shown some improvement, particularly
in his footwork and poise in the pocket, he’s still one
of the lesser starting QBs in the NFL. That is even factoring
in that he works with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. He made a good
decision in Buffalo last week to burst up the gut for a TD score
when the defense allowed it.
He is still not asked to do much by Bill Belichick – although
he did throw the ball 34 times last week – and odds are
the Pats will continue to look to “win ugly” much
like they did when Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Last
week I proclaimed Benjamin Watson a non-factor and a player likely
found in many league’s FA pools. If that’s the case
in your league and you are weak at the position this may be the
week to start him. The Jets have been very kind to opposing TEs
having allowed touchdowns to such no-names as David Martin, Anthony
Fasano, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez (ok, those last two are pretty
good) and Derrick Fine.
The Jets’ pass defense has given up 2,011 yards and 11 TDs
on the season, but has improved since getting brutalized by Philip
Rivers. CBs Darrell Revis and Dwight Lowery have played very well.
Over the last three weeks, opposing QBs and WRs have not fared
very well. The pass rush has been very impressive and the Jets
are behind only Pittsburgh in sacks (31 sacks) and surprisingly
ahead of the much more heralded cross-town New York Giants.
Safety Abram Elam, filling in for injured Erik Smith, managed
to make another game changing-play for the second consecutive
week as he sacked and stripped Marc Bulger, allowing Calvin Pace
to pick up the ball and score. Veteran CB Ty Law was signed this
week and may even play in Thursday Night game. He should be a
steady presence for the young CBs and see some time in nickel
and dime packages.
Running Game Thoughts: BenJarvus
Green-Ellis (nick named “law firm” by teammates) broke
the 100-yard barrier and scored a TD against Buffalo last week.
He is beginning to look like a back that Billy Belichick would
like (almost a younger version of Sammy Morris). He’s not
flashy, and doesn’t have many moves, but runs downhill and
can punish defenders. Speaking of Morris, he did practice this
week, but was limited and it’s unknown whether he’ll
see the field this week. Kevin Faulk has been a nice complement
to Green-Ellis and has been a decent fill in RB for ppr leagues.
No matter what other RBs come back he should continue to have
value in those leagues.
The Jets’ run defense has been among the league’s
best due to NT Kris Jenkins and solid veteran Eric Barton. The
unit continues to shut down opposing backs although second-year
ILB David Harris has missed the last two games (and will miss
this week as well). DE David Bowens has been filling Harris’
spot and despite looking strange due to his large size in the
middle, has been relatively effective. The Jets are the fifth
ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only 76.4 yards per game
and only 7 TDs in 9 games.
Projections:
Matt Cassell: 205 yds passing 1 TD, 1 INT / 20 yds rushing
Randy Moss: 75 yds receiving
Wes Welker: 55 yds receiving
Benjamin Watson: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Faulk: 15 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Benjarvus Green-Ellis: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
(Marcoccio)
JaMarcus Russell/Javon Walker/Chaz Schilens/Zach
Miller
Justin Fargas/Michael Bush (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season:
ARI, NE, DEN, SEA
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3/17.5/3.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.6
Passing Game Thoughts: Peter King said it best two weeks ago in
his MMQB article when he wrote, “Rookie quarterbacks Joe
Flacco and Matt Ryan just beat JaMarcus Russell 53-10 in an eight-day
period. Not to pile on Russell or anything.” Well I’m
not going to pile on Russell either (well maybe a little), but
I will point out what a joke the Raider franchise has become in
recent years due to Al Davis’ refusal to admit the game
has passed him by. The fact that he brought up the point that
Lane Kiffin was against the drafting of Russell in 2007 during
his “smear Lane Kiffin” press conference shows that
Davis isn’t even capable of disparaging someone properly.
Ummm…dude I think most Raider fans wish that you guys didn’t
draft Russell over guys like Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Adrian
Peterson, Gaines Adams or Patrick Willis (amongst many others).
Russell missed last week, but ever the team player, Andrew Walter
did his best Russell impersonation by going 14-32-143 with two
interceptions. The only Raider involved in the passing game I
can even barely recommend is Zach Miller, whose talent far outweighs
his unfortunate situation.
Miami’s pass defense is ranked 25th in the NFL after giving
up 2,110 yards and 12 TDs through the air in 9 weeks. Over the
last couple of weeks they have started to show some improvement
against the likes of Jay Cutler, Trent Edwards, and Seneca Wallace.
It’s not often that a team gets to face a downgrade at QB
after seeing Seneca Wallace, but Miami gets a real chance here
to continue to improve on its passing defense statistics in Week
11.
Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden’s toe and other injuries
kept him out last week and there’s a good chance he could
miss this week as well. Justin Fargas, who I like the call the
“human missile”, due to his interesting running style
of launching himself forward in a straight line as fast as he
can and either finding a hole or relying on his balance to bounce
off defenders and keep going, had a good game last week against
a tough Carolina defense (22 carries for 89 yards). Fargas and
bulldozing, Michael Bush is actually a pretty nice combo that
could at least keep the Raiders in the game against the Dolphins.
Too bad McFadden is expected to miss out or we could have potentially
seen two Wild Hog offenses facing off.
The Miami run defense has been a tough unit on opposing RBs all
season. They are currently the 9th ranked run defense in the league,
having allowed 843 yards and 5 TDs in 9 games. It’s amazing
the turn around they have made under the new regime without much
turnover in personnel.
Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 175 yds passing, 2 INT
Javon Walker: 25 yds receiving
Chaz Shilens: 35 yds receiving
Zach Miller: 55 yds receiving
Justin Fargas: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD
Michael Bush: 45 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Chad Pennington/Greg Camarillo/Ted Ginn,
Jr./Anthony Fasano/David Martin
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
BAL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
BUF, SD, BAL, ATL, CAR
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 29.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.5/16.8/2.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 28.0
Passing Game Thoughts: Chad Pennington keeps winning games, and
as I said last week, he has made as big an impact with his new
team as anyone in the NFL. He has the Dolphins at five wins after
the team barely won a game all of last season. His stat lines
are never super- impressive (unless you count his completion percentage),
but he gets the job done. Last week, he threw a beautiful 39-yard,
over the shoulder pass to Tedd Ginn, Jr. for a TD. Speaking of
Ginn, he is starting to emerge as a nice weapon in the passing
game for Miami. He only really had one big week, but has contributed
a few stat lines like his 4 catches for 67 yards and a TD like
last week. Greg Camarillo has been a solid WR #3-4 in ppr leagues
and is a less quick version of Wes Welker, who Miami let go to
NE a few years back in exchange for what many though was a steal
for them, a second and seventh round pick. Turns out they may
have been the ones to have over-paid.
Oakland is the 13th ranked pass defense in the NFL. Nnamdi Asomugha
is the main reason why they are even this high as he is one of
the only true shut down corners in the league, With Asomugha opposing
offenses are virtually left playing with half a field. They allow
198.6 passing yards per game and have given up 12 passing TDs
on the season. It has been a wise move for fantasy owners to not
expect much production from wide receivers lined up against Asomugha.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week it was Ricky Williams who broke
free running from the Wildcat formation, this time for a 51-yard
touchdown run. But it was the first time in a while he had done
much for his fantasy owners. It has been an up and down year for
both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. While Brown has had more
ups than the Rasta, look for the Dolphins to exploit the Okland
run defense using both halves of its one two punch.
The Raiders’ run defense is ranked ahead of only such lousy
defenses as St. Louis, Detroit, and Kansas City, allowing 158.1
yards per game and 13 TDs on the year. Unlike some teams –
including Miami - Oakland has not addressed the poor run defense
that has plagued them for years and it has cost them. Fantasy
owners have looked forward to their RBs facing the Raiders all
season and there’s no reason to bench either Brown or Williams
this week.
Projections:
Chad Pennington: 200 yds passing, 1 TD
Greg Camarillo: 45 yds receiving
Ted Ginn, Jr.: 25 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
David Martin: 35 yds receiving
Ricky Williams: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 95 yds rushing, 2 TDs / 25 yds receiving
(Marcoccio)
Brady Quinn/Braylon Edwards/Donte Stallworth/Kellen
Winslow, Jr.
Jamal Lewis (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season:
StL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season:
ARI, NYJ, NE
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3/18.34.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.4
Passing Game Thoughts: The Brady Quinn era started last week and
rumor has it many in the Browns locker room were not pleased that
it did. It wasn’t necessarily an indictment on Quinn, but
more due to how the team hung Derek Anderson out to dry. In my
opinion, Anderson was never a great QB, but he was mobile, had
a decent arm, and was smart enough to throw the ball into tight
coverage to superior athletes like Braylon Edwards and Kellen
Winslow. While defenses were better able to gameplan for Anderson,
his struggles had a lot to do with Edwards and Winslow letting
him down this year. Quinn did look poised for a QB making his
first NFL start. It didn’t hurt that his first game was
against a Broncos team that hasn’t stopped the pass all
season and was playing without Champ Bailey. Kellen Winslow also
played like a monster, but with all that said, Quinn still looked
like the first round quarterback that he was. Braylon Edwards
on the other hand continued his struggles and it just may be a
lost season for him.
Buffalo is the 16th ranked passing defense in the NFL, giving
up 205.3 yards passing per game, but has only allowed 7 TDs through
the air on the season. They have not generated much of a pass
rush this season (14 sacks) and are now missing DE Aaron Schoebel
their best pass rusher. Jabari Grier and Terrence McGee have played
very well and kept opposing teams out of the end zone, but have
not managed many takeaways with the Bills, having only five interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamal Lewis is not having nearly the season
he had in his re-birth year of 2007, but does have 593 yards (4th
in the AFC) and 4 TDs this year. He doesn’t look as quick
as he did last year, but can still plow through a defense and
finds the holes that are there.
Buffalo’s run defense was effective earlier in the year,
but has started to struggle. They allow 103.9 yards per game,
and have allowed 11 TDs in 9 games. DT Marcus Stroud was a force
earlier in the season, but (probably not coincidently to Buffalo’s
struggles) he has slowed down a little as the season has progressed.
The team has now lost three division games in a row and may be
deflated to some degree.
Projections:
Brady Quinn: 205 yds passing 1 TDs, 1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 45 yds receiving
Donte Stallworth: 30 yds receiving
Kellen Winslow: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD
Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish/Robert
Royal
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cleveland this season:
BAL, JAX
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cleveland this season:
PIT, BAL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 26.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 32.7/35.5/9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1
Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards was harassed by the Jets’
defense last week (5 sacks) with Kris Jenkins getting a strong
push up the middle. He was picked off twice and didn’t look
as poised as we’ve been accustomed to seeing him. He still
managed 289 yards passing and a TD. TEs Robert Royal and Derrick
Fine picked up the slack for missing possession WR Josh Reed by
grabbing 5 balls for 70 yards and 4 for 43 yards and a TD, respectively.
But the Jets have been very generous to opposing TEs all season
so don’t necessarily rush out to grab a Bills TE. Even without
Josh Reed in the line-up rookie James Hardy was a non-factor and
it was Roscoe Parrish who was a bigger part of the passing game.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch was shaken up a little during the first half and had his
worst game of the season against the tough Jet run defense. Lynch
managed only 16 yards on nine carries, but did contribute 52 receiving
yards with most coming on one long catch and run early in the
contest. The Bills o-line was overmatched against a Jet defense
missing its best run defender, and is a below average unit, which
doesn’t help the hard running Lynch.
Projections:
Trent Edwards: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Lee Evans: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 45 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Fred Jackson: 30 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 85 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
(Marcoccio)
Joe Flacco/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason/Todd
Heap
Willis McGahee/LeRon McClain (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season:
PIT
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season:
WAS, CLE, PIT
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.6/21.9/4.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.5
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has looked incredibly poised
in his rookie season and has improved steadily with each week.
He is no longer just a game manager and can now win games with
his arm. The cagey veteran, Derrick Mason, seems to be Flacco’s
first look, but was banged up last week. While expected to play
in Week 11, he may be slowed a bit. Mark Clayton has been up and
down, but has shown flashes of brilliance. Two weeks ago Flacco
hit Clayton down the sideline for a beautiful, long TD pass. Todd
Heap who was left for dead and on many waiver wires, rose like
the Phoenix last week and scored two TDs. Was it a aberration
or a sign of things to come?
By now everyone is fully aware that the Giants’ pass rush
led by Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanuka makes life difficult
for almost every QB they have faced this season. Can they rattle
the youngster? We’ll see. The Giants pass defense is ranked
2nd in the league giving up only 177.1 yards and just over 1 TD
per game. The Ravens are a run first team under normal circumstances,
but if they don’t fall behind early I would expect that
they will be even more conservative this week in order to try
and pull out a close game and protect their young franchise QB.
Running Game Thoughts: Due to various injuries Willis McGahee
has been in and out of the line-up at a rate that his owners likely
find maddening. As a McGahee owner I can say McGahee has cost
me my last two match ups single-handedly. In Week 9 where he was
expected to play, he was in my lineup and got me the big ZERO
and in Week 10 he kicked major @$$ on my bench when I decided
the safe play was sticking Ray Rice in my line-up. I ended up
losing by 10 points. This week McGahee should play, but faces
a matchup where he’s sure to break a nail or something.
With LJ coming back and LenWhale having a tasty match up, think
I’ll stick both Ravens’ RBs on my bench this week.
Now that you guys have all been updated on the “Angel Dust”
line-up, I’ll pass along some useful information. McGahee,
Rice, and McClain will be facing the Giants’ 7th ranked
run defense this week. The Giants allow only 87.7 yards rushing
per game and have only allowed 4 TDs on the ground. This could
be a very low scoring game, where the Ravens feel its best to
rotate their 3 backs and pound away at the Giants, so consider
your options carefully.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 175 yds passing, 1 INT
Derek Mason: 40 yds receiving
Mark Clayton: 85 yds receiving
Todd Heap: 15 yds receiving
Willis McGahee: 65 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
LeRon McClain: 25 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Steve
Smith/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season:
IND
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens season: CLE,
TEN, MIA
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 31.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.6/20.4/5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11.5
Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning hasn’t been asked to
carry the Giants this year, but has played extremely well, making
big throws when necessary, limiting his turnovers, and using all
of his weapons in the passing game. The Giants are one of the
most balanced teams in the NFL on offense. Plaxico Burris caught
a TD last week but it was his only catch and the Eagles did make
it a point to take him out of the game. Eventually the Giants
will be in a game where they need to pass more and will need to
use their best weapon. TE Kevin Boss, after a slow start to the
season, is starting to be a big part of the passing game and he
made a nice grab on a TD catch last Sunday Night. It’s amazing
that the Giants look to have received the much better end of the
Jeremy Shockey trade already and they don’t even get to
use the picks until 2009.
Baltimore has fallen from the No.1 pass defense to the No. 9 rated
pass defense during the season after a string of injuries have
made them more susceptible over the last couple of weeks. They
have lost Fabian Washington and Ed Reed has been slowed by injuries.
With the way the Ravens play the run, it is just a lot easier
top put the ball up in the air.
Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs finished with 126 yards
and 2 TDs last week, but this week the irresistible force meets
the immovable object, LB Ray Lewis. If there is anyone not looking
forward to this match up, they are not football fans. Baltimore
has the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing only 65.4 yards
per week and incredibly only one rushing TD on the season. Baltimore
has the overall defensive quickness with Trevor Price, Lee Suggs
and Ed Reed (who is banged up and questionable) that should limit
the effectiveness of the Giants 3 headed monster.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 295 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Plaxico Burress: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Amani Toomer: 45 yds receiving
Steve Smith: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 35 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Derrick Ward: 35 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 25 yds rushing
(Mack)
Donovan McNabb / DeSean Jackson / Reggie
Brown / Kevin Curtis / LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook (vs. Cincinnati)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season:
New York Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
Passing Game Thoughts: A couple games against Washington and
Atlanta notwithstanding, Donovan McNabb has been his reliable
and productive self all season. McNabb’s knack for playing
mistake-free football (he hasn’t thrown more than 11 INTs
in a season since 2003) and his ability to maintain a high level
of productivity despite not having a go-to receiver speaks volumes
to his value as a fantasy QB. He’s coming off a 3-TD performance
against one of the league’s best defenses in the New York
Giants. This week he battles a 10th ranked pass defense in Cincinnati
that has fallen off in recent weeks, having relinquished an average
of 241 yards and 5 total TD passes with only one INT over the
previous 3 games. The Bengals don’t generate much of a pass
rush either, having only sacked the opposing QB nine times. So
McNabb should have his way with Cincy.
The Eagles’ receiving “threats” are all back
and healthy after battling early season injuries. Reggie Brown
and Kevin Curtis’ return won’t dramatically improve
what Philly has done in their absence, but it should help when
the Eagles decide to spread out the defense with four- and five-wide
sets and allow McNabb to carve up the Bengals’ secondary.
He has gotten off to slow starts each of the past two weeks, but
I don’t anticipate such struggles this week. McNabb should
match his 3-TD performance from last week with significantly more
yards.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s often frustrating as a Brian
Westbrook owner to see how little they use the multi-faceted RB
in the running game. What’s even more mind numbing is the
Eagles’ propensity to altogether ignore the running game
once inside the red zone. Philly seems to prefer a 4-wide, shotgun
formation the closer they get to the end zone. And the clever
defensive coordinators are smart enough to know that’s probably
the best formation to neutralize Westbrook because they typically
blitz from whichever side Westbrook is on. This kind of defensive
attack then requires Westy to help out on pass protection, thus
eliminating his ability to do damage down field.
Now, all of this may be for naught against Cincy. The Bengals
certainly don’t have the defensive personnel comparable
to the Giants, nor do they have the coaching staff in place to
formulate such schemes. Plus, with Westy having a below-average
game last week, look for head coach Andy Reid and company to ensure
Westbrook becomes a huge part of the game plan this week. He should
be good for 150 total yards and two scores.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 265 yards / 3 TDs
DeSean Jackson: 95 yards / 1 TD
Reggie Brown: 65 yards
Kevin Curtis: 30 yard / 1 TD
LJ Smith: 30 yards
Brian Westbrook: 85 yards rushing / 1 TD – 35 yards rec.
/ 1 TD
Ryan Fitzpatrick / TJ Houshmandzadeh / Chad
Johnson / Chris Henry
Cedric Benson (vs. Philadelpia)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season:
Seattle
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season:
St. Louis
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8
Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick is as bland a fantasy
QB as you will find. He’s unspectacular and prone to mistakes,
but I’ll give him this: he’s nothing if not consistent.
In his four starts, he has netted between 152 and 162 yards passing
in each game. That’s underwhelming. And his four TDs and
six INTs during the same stretch is even further proof that he
should be as far away from your roster as possible.
But here’s the bright side of the Bengals’ passing
game. If you have TJ Houshmandzadeh and play in a PPR league,
you’re loving life. His 61 catches almost double Chad Johnson’s
37 grabs. And while TJ’s miniscule 9.5 yards per catch doesn’t
scare anyone, all those dink and dunk receptions add up quickly.
A short passing attack may be the order of the day, because Cincy
is one of the league’s worst at giving up sacks (30 so far)
and Philly is one of the league’s best at rushing the passer
(28 sacks). Fitzpatrick will be under siege most of the afternoon,
and his lack of protection will drop the value of those around
him.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Perry was one of those dark horse
sleepers during fantasy draft season, but the bloom quickly left
that rose after he came down with a severe case of fumble-itis.
Perry stunk so bad that enigmatic Cedric Benson was called off
the street and has played well considering the circumstances.
His 100-yard output vs. Jacksonville several weeks ago was a good
display of the skill set he displayed coming out of college, and
his production henceforth needs to mirror that game if Cincy is
to have any kind of offensive success.
It’s going to be tough sledding going up against the Philly
defense. The Bengals field one of the worst running offenses in
the NFL and chances are they may be playing from behind early
in the contest, further rendering an already impotent attack useless.
It’s important that Cincinnati slow the game down to keep
the potentially explosive Philly offense off the field. If they
adopt that approach, Benson should see 15-20 carries. If not,
he will be a hopeless component of your starting line-up—a
place where he shouldn’t be to begin with.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 150 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 70 yards
Chad Johnson: 40 yards / 1 TD
Chris Henry: 35 yards
Cedric Benson: 65 yards
(Mack)
Kyle Orton / Rashied Davis / Devin Hester
/ Greg Olson
Matt Forte (vs. Green Bay)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season:
Atlanta
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season:
Atlanta
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18
Passing Game Thoughts: If ever proof was needed that Kyle Orton
is a far superior QB than back-up Rex Grossman, I give you last
week’s stinker of a game by Grossman. Sure he was playing
against the league’s toughest defense in Tennessee, but
there were plays for Grossman to make and he didn’t. He
consistently overthrew open receivers and his poise and footwork
in the pocket looked like an inexperienced rookie. But Orton now
appears to be ready to return after having his ankle twisted 90-degrees
several weeks ago.
Part of the reason why Orton has been such a wonderful fantasy
surprise is his ability to protect the football. He hasn’t
thrown an interception since September. But Green Bay’s
18 INTs lead the league and their eight-defensive/special teams
TDs are three more than any other team. So Orton must remain efficient
against this opportunistic defense. CBs Charles Woodson and Al
Harris present a formidable challenge for any QB, especially at
Lambeau. But Orton has quieted doubters all season and there’s
little reason to believe why he shouldn’t pick up where
he left off several weeks ago.
Running Game Thoughts: After eclipsing the century mark several
weeks ago for the first time since the season opener, Matt Forte
ran into a Tennessee defense last week determined to contain him.
They succeeded clogging up the running game, but what Forte didn’t
do on the ground he more than made up for it catching the ball.
And therein lies the beauty of the rookie. He’s a dual threat
running back who leads his team in both rushing and receiving,
sharing that distinction with Frank Gore.
As opportunistic as the Packers’ pass defense is, their
run defense can be had. They rank 28th in the league after getting
torched by Adrian Peterson last week to the tune of 192 rushing
yards. It should be interesting to see if the Bears attempt to
ease Orton back into the swing of things by putting a greater
emphasis on the running game early or if they decide to allow
Orton to air it out the way he did prior to his injury. I think
Chicago plays it close to the vest, especially early on, and attempt
to establish a dominant running game. Packer LB Nick Barnett is
out for the season, which further weakens their defense. Forte
will benefit by putting up very respectable numbers both on the
ground and through the air. Start him with confidence and expect
the usual Forte output.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 190 yards / 1 TD
Rashied Davis: 75 yards
Devin Hester: 50 yards / 1 TD
Greg Olson: 35 yards
Matt Forte: 90 yards rushing / 1 TD – 40 yards rec. / 1
TD
Aaron Rodgers / Donald Driver / Greg Jennings
/ Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. Chicago)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season:
Carolina
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season:
Philadelphia
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14
Passing Game Thoughts: After a scorching start to the season
during the first half dozen or so games, Aaron Rodgers’
play has leveled off somewhat. He’s thrown only two TDs
with one INT over the last three games. Is the shoulder injury
a factor or is it simply the result of poor play? Who knows what
the culprit is, but the fact remains that Rodgers has struggled
recently.
He should come out of his recent funk because Chicago’s
pass defense has been torched over the last seven games, giving
up an average of 311 passing yards in that span.
Donald Driver and Greg Jennings form one of the best receiving
duos in the league and should put tremendous pressure on the Bears’
secondary. Driver is the underneath guy while Jennings is the
burner who stretches the defense. Tight end Donald Lee should
get into the mix as well with short, safe throws to keep drives
alive. The Packers probably won’t run as well against the
Bears, so their best hope to move the ball will be through the
air. I anticipate them doing so quite well.
Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant has been a reliable, if not
spectacular, RB2. He battled injuries early this season but and
he still hasn’t recaptured the magic that characterized
his play last year. Overall, Green Bay’s running game doesn’t
keep defensive coordinators up at night. They rank in the bottom
third of the league, and going up against Chicago’s 4th
ranked run defense certainly won’t improve their standing.
I think Green Bay will find so much success throwing the ball
that they may shun the running game altogether. Grant may be lucky
to see a 15 carries in this game but should see significant action
as a receiver out of the backfield.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 260 yards / 2 TD
Greg Jennings: 130 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver: 50 yards / 1 TD
Donald Lee: 40 yards
Ryan Grant: 55 yards rushing / 1 TD – 35 yards rec.
(Mack)
Philip Rivers / Vincent Jackson / Chris
Chambers / Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. Pittsburgh)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
Indianapolis
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
Washington
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15
Passing Game Thoughts: The San Diego Chargers make the cross-country
trip to Pittsburgh, bringing their 6th ranked passing offense
along. Phillip Rivers leads the league with 21 TD passes, throwing
at least two in each of the previous four games. This should be
an interesting battle between one of the top passing offenses
and the league’s best pass defense. San Diego hasn’t
seen a defense remotely resembling what Pittsburgh does, so how
well Rivers adjusts to the Steelers’ high-pressure, high-energy
defensive scheme will be a sight to behold.
Vincent Jackson has picked up the slack during Chris Chambers’
absence. And although Chambers returned last week, he was a non-existent
factor. Antonio Gates remains the straw the stirs the Chargers’
drink. His play against the athletic Pittsburgh linebackers will
determine how successful the San Diego passing game will be as
a whole. But it’s all going to hinge on whether the Chargers’
O-line can protect Rivers from what’s sure to be a relentless
assault from the Pittsburgh front seven.
Running Game Thoughts: Are we witnessing the slow decline of
one of the best backs in league history? He hasn’t scored
a rushing TD in five weeks and he currently has his lowest per-carry
average since his rookie season. Granted, he’s far from
being a fantasy afterthought, but what we’ve come to expect
from LaDainian Tomlinson and what we’re seeing are two different
things. And what’s he reward? A visit with the league’s
2nd toughest run defense, that’s what.
There won’t be many running lanes for LT. His best hope
is that Rivers loosens up the defense enough with the passing
game. We should expect to see LT on draw plays and delayed handoffs
to keep the front seven honest. This would create natural seams
along the line of scrimmage for LT to exploit. The bottom line
is this: don’t expect too much from the Chargers’
running game this week.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 65 yards
Chris Chambers: 45 yards
Antonio Gates: 50 yards / 1 TD
LaDanian Tomlinson: 65 yards rushing / 1 TD – 35 yards rec.
Ben Roethlisberger / Hines Ward / Santonio
Holmes / Nate Washington
Willie Parker / Mewelde Moore (vs. San Diego)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season:
New England
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season:
Buffalo
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 11
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17
Passing Game Thoughts: To say Ben Roethlisberger has struggled
recently is a cavernous understatement. He has one TD pass and
eight INTs during the previous three games, and he already has
as many interceptions this year as he had all of last year (11).
Apparently his injured shoulder is well enough for him to play,
but it is well enough for him to play up to his capabilities?
But the San Diego Chargers pass defense is just what Big Ben needs.
The worst pass defense in the league pays a visit to Heinz Field,
so if Roethlisberger can’t get back on track against this
team, those who own the Steelers’ QB should begin to worry.
The Chargers allowed Tyler Thigpen—Tyler Thigpen!—to
throw for 266 yards and 3 TDs last week, this after firing defensive
coordinator Ted Cottrell. Something’s obviously missing
in San Diego. With essentially the same group from last year,
this team now is incapable of putting up much of a fight in the
passing game. Hines Ward will eat alive the underneath coverage
and Nate Washington should get deep for a deep ball or two. And
if Santonio Holmes decides to get his act together, maybe even
he will enjoy some success this week.
Running Game Thoughts: As of this writing, it’s not confirmed
if Willie Parker will suit up in this game. Those conflicting
reports about the severity of his shoulder injury are either the
Steelers playing head games with their opponents or Fast Willie
fantasy owners need to be concerned. Mewelde Moore, however, have
played remarkably well in Parker’s absence and should continue
to do so if need be.
The Chargers are respectable against the run, ranking 13th in
the league. It may not matter. It’s imperative that the
Steelers get Big Ben back in a groove so they may try to exploit
the weakness of San Diego’s secondary. But whoever the primary
ball carrier ends up being, they should enjoy a level of success
that will warrant a starting spot on your roster.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 225 yards / 2 TD / 1 INT
Hines Ward: 90 yards 1 TD
Nate Washington: 65 yards
Santonio Holmes: 50 yards
Heath Miller: 35 yards / 1 TD
Willie Parker: 65 yards / 1 TD
Mewelde Moore: 35 yards
(Eakin)
Drew Brees/Marcus Colston/Lance Moore/Billy
Miller
Deuce McAllister/Pierre Thomas (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this year:
Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this year:
FF points allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.7
FF points allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.7
FF points allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.4
FF points allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.1
FF points allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last three weeks: 22.4/26.6/9.7
FF points allowed vs. RBs over the last three weeks: 21.9
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has been stellar all year as
a fantasy passer, but it hasn’t always translated in to
wins for the team. Brees threw an eye-catching 58 attempts for
422 yards and two TDs. However, the rising young Atlanta team
picked him off three times last Sunday and came away with the
victory. One of the INTs caused an exchange of words between Brees
and TE Jeremy Shockey. It’s safe to say the honeymoon is
over. It looked like Shockey ran the wrong route. The stats show
the disappointment in Shockey as Billy Miller continues to be
the most productive TE for the Saints. Welcome back Marcus Colston.
Colston produced his first significant game since last season,
catching seven balls for 140 yards. I’m sure he will eventually
score a TD this year. In fact, I’m going to predict that
it comes this week. The Chiefs have been relatively solid against
in WR FF points allowed for most of the year, but over the last
three weeks they have been in a few shootouts and their numbers
have dropped. I don’t see any reason why that trend shouldn’t
continue with the NFL’s most prolific pass attack coming
to town.
The Chiefs defense is dealing with major injuries and made no
less than six free agents moves just last week to replenish bodies.
Missing players include DE Tamba Hali, OLB Derrick Johnson, CBs
Patrick Surtain, and Brandon Flowers. Their defensive ends and
cornerbacks are the most troubled areas. They happen to be two
key positions needed to slow opposing pass attacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush had his first practice since
his knee surgery, but his playing status is still up in the air.
If he plays I assume you must start him, but I think it’s
a stretch that they throw their franchise back in there too soon.
The Saints RBs didn’t fare well against Atlanta, but the
Chiefs boast the leagues worst run defense. The problem is that
they have a three0headed attack with McAllister, Stecker, and
Thomas all sharing roles. Deuce is safest bet to score points
and could be in line for a pretty good day so long as they don’t
abandon the run. The same beat up Chiefs that will struggle to
prevent the Saints pass attack will also need to play against
the run, also likely to be a tall order.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 350 yards/3 TDs/1 INT
Marcus Colston: 125 yards/1 TD
Lance Moore: 80 yards/1 TD
Billy Miller: 45 yards/1 TD
Deuce McAllister: 65 yards/1 TD/15 receiving
Tyler Thigpen/DeWayne Bowe/Mark Bradley/Tony
Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this year:
49ers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this year:
49ers
FF points allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.9
FF points allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.4
FF points allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.2
FF points allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.3
FF points allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last three weeks: 24.6/26.6/8.9
FF points allowed vs. RBs over the last three weeks: 30.1
Passing Game Thoughts: If you haven’t noticed yet new starting
QB Tyler Thigpen is on a three-game tear. Last week, he played
well in San Diego despite the Chargers having two weeks to prepare.
The Chiefs offense is running a single back shotgun formation
to make Thigpen more comfortable. Control freak Herm Edwards must
be pulling nails out his fingers running that system. During the
current Thigpen run, the ball has been spread evenly among DeWayne
Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and new starter Mark Bradley. Bradley is
still unknown in some leagues and would make a solid WR3 waiver
pickup.
The Saints ended last week with only three healthy CBs on their
roster. One of them is fantasy Hall-of-Shamer Jason David. Anyone
as charitable as he shouldn’t have to pay federal taxes.
Yep, I smell another shootout coming on.
Running Game Thoughts: Kolby Smith, out. Jamaal Charles, out.
Larry “ladies man” Johnson, back from team imposed
suspension. Johnson and will try his hand at running in a single
back formation with no lead blocker against a Saints defense that
is middle of the road, giving up 19.6 FF points a game to RBs.
Given that KC is pass happy right now, will need to keep up with
the Saints offensive machine, and LJ is a below average RB threat
in a new system. I don’t recommend relying on him to deliver
this week. He’s really only had one monster LJ-like game
this year so it’s possible, but unlikely. How’s that
for straddling the fence? I guess you see my cards below.
Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 290 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
DeWayne Bowe: 90 yards/1 TD
Mark Bradley: 70 yards
Tony Gonzalez: 70 yards/1 TD
Larry Johnson: 65 yards/1 TD/25 receiving
(Eakin)
Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve
Breaston
Tim Hightower (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this year:
Eagles
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this year:
Eagles
FF points allowed vs. similar QBs: 26.7
FF points allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.4
FF points allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF points allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.4
FF points allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last three weeks: 20.1/26.6/8.1
FF points allowed vs. RBs over the last three weeks: 21.0
Passing Game Thoughts: I admit it’s hard for me to praise
Kurt Warner because of his wife’s hair and his insistence
that an almighty God responds to his prayer more than the opposing
teams. But even I must admire the season he is having. He continued
firing along as expected last week, throwing for 328 yards, 3
TDs, and no picks. The only time you shouldn’t make Warner
a no-brainer as your starter is if you also own Drew Brees or
Jay Cutler. Steve Breaston led the way in yardage while Fitzgerald
and Boldin did the heavy lifting in the red zone. Breaston is
a great flex play and has been producing for much of the season,
harkening me back to the days of his electrifying returns in Ann
Harbor. Boldin is a TD scoring machine and has firmly established
himself as Warner’s favorite near the endzone.
The Seattle secondary will look for a hat trick in returning
INTs for six. They have two in as many weeks. They will have a
tough time in the slot against Breaston’s speed and their
CBs do not have the physicality to knock Boldin and Fitzgerald
off their routes. Both of them are too big and too strong for
the Seattle secondary to handle. Seattle will need pressure to
disrupt Arizona’s timing and they have not gotten been able
to consistently get it from front seven to this point. Not only
that, but Arizona doesn’t give up many sacks to begin with.
Running Game Thoughts: Well I kind of whiffed last week on Tim
Hightower. I swung for a triple off the wall and he popped out
to the catcher with 22 yards rushing. I need to have a sit down
with this rook and tell him how this thing works. He can’t
go off when we don’t see it coming then blow it when we
sing his praise, he won’t last long fighting us like that,
you know? The Seahawks aren’t quite ready for the old “Sea
Chickens” label to return as far as their run defense is
concerned, but they are below average, ranking 21st in FF points
allowed to RBs. This week I still like Hightower, but I’m
slapping it the other way for a base hit on my projection.
Projections:
Kurt Warner: 325 yards/3 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 115 yards/2 Tds
Anquan Boldin: 90 yards/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 75 yards
Tim Hightower: 75 yards/1 TD/20 receiving
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/Bobby Engram/John
Carlson
Julius Jones (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this year:
Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this year:
Rams
FF points allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.2
FF points allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.3
FF points allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.1
FF points allowed vs. similar RBs: 10.5
FF points allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last three weeks: 20.3/27.9/4.2
FF points allowed vs. RBs over the last three weeks: 12.2
Passing Game Thoughts: The way to attack the Cardinals defense
is through the air. Seattle may be getting the ammunition they
need in the expected return of Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch.
It’s tough to predict the rust factor of both, but at full
strength, they are a top-notch unit. Bobby Engram will go back
to his natural slot side and best case scenario is they start
to play up to the lofty preseason expectations we had for them.
However, as we’ve seen with even the likes of Peyton Manning,
missing time on the field causes is tough to overcome immediately,
especially in timing offenses like Seattle and Indy. I expect
the a better fight with a return of starters, but they will probably
need a couple weeks to get back in the groove of things.
Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones is expected to start, but
is listed as questionable. Arizona has a pretty stout run defense
so temper your expectations here. I do think Jones can muster
up some good plays via the pass, as Hasselbeck’s mere presence
should garner some down field respect. The QB will be checking
down a lot until he gets more comfortable with playing again.
Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 205 yards/1 TD/1 INT
Bobby Engram: 75 yards/1 TD
Deion Branch: 65 yards
John Carlson: 45 yards
Julius Jones: 65 yadrs/1 TD/35 receiving
(Eakin)
Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Donnie Avery
Steven Jackson (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the 49ers this year: Seahawks
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the 49ers this year: Eagles
FF points allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.2
FF points allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.8
FF points allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF points allowed vs. similar RBs: 10.5
FF points allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last three weeks: 23.8/27.6/.7
FF points allowed vs. RBs over the last three weeks: 12.2
Passing Game Thoughts: It seemed like the Rams were back on track
after a couple wins out of the shoot when interim coach Jim Haslett
took the reigns. Then Steven Jackson got hurt and the Rams got
beaten down like a nonconference opponent playing the Cornhuskers
in the 1980’s. The Jets starters were putting on suntan
oil by halftime in their 47-3 destruction of the “Billy
goats”. Bulger regressed back to treating the football like
a hot potato as soon as pressure arrived. This prompted him to
be replaced by Trent Green after half time. Neither QB managed
to score or top 70 yards. The 49ers have good CBs that can get
physical with the smallish ram receivers. They won’t be
as successful as the Jets were, especially if Jackson returns,
but the 49ers should hold them in check.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson is questionable with a
deep thigh bruise after missing last week. Neither of his replacements
is worth much if he doesn’t go, but Antonio Pittman has
the greatest upside. If Jackson plays, and is effective, then
the 49ers will be forced to focus on him and passing lanes will
open for Avery and Holt. He can change the entire complexion of
the team. The 49ers are the 24th ranked defense in FF points allowed
to RBs so Jackson at full speed would normally be in line for
a big day. It remains to be seen if he’s healthy, and the
49ers have done a great job stopping the run in the two games
under interim coach Mike Singletary. Is it too soon to suggest
that the team is taking on his mentality and tenacity? We shall
see if that trend plays out or not.
Projections:
Marc Bulger: 215 yards/1 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 65 yards/1 TD
Donnie Avery: 75 yards
Steven Jackson: 80 yards/1 TD
Shaun Hill/Josh Morgan/Isaac Bruce/Jason
Hill/
Frank Gore (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this year: Eagles
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this year: Eagles
FF points allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.7
FF points allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.6
FF points allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF points allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.2
FF points allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last three weeks: 18.8/20.8/.7
FF points allowed vs. RBs over the last three weeks: 31.5
Passing Game Thoughts: Much like his predecessor, Shaun Hill
played well enough to keep his team in the game and made enough
mistakes to cost a victory. In fact, Hill may have been one more
pass away from a victory over the red hot Arizona Cardinal but
we’ll never know for sure since as you may have seen, they
went with the old FB up the middle run. They needed three yards
to win the game with no time left on the clock and they got exactly
zero. It was a shame to watch after seeing the underdog Niner’s
rally all the way down the field in the last minute only to look
like Christmas Eve Tickle-Me-Elmo store melee once they completed
a pass down inside the 10. To me the offense looked about the
same as before the QB change, for every TD pass there is an INT
giving the other team a TD. I think the 49ers will put it together
this week as they look like the better team.
Running Game Thoughts: By all accounts Gore should feast on the
Rams defense this week. The Rams are only eclipsed by the Chiefs
in run stopping futility. One of the few bright spots for them
on the d-line, Adam Carriker, is injured and will be ineffective
even if he does play. There are few RBs more talented than Gore
and even fewer defenders on the Rams that are talented and healthy.
I think Singletary will want Martz to call more run plays this
week, just not at the goaline with time expiring and not to he
fullback Michael Robinson. I suggested last week that eventually
there will be a rift in styles between Martz and Singletary and
in the post game interview Singletary threw Martz under the bus
a little bit over the play calling at the end of the game. I think
this will continue to play out, especially if San Francisco finds
a way to lose one of the few games all year they will be favored
in
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 280 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
Josh Morgan: 70 yards
Isaac Bruce: 60 yards/1 TD
Jason Hill: 45 yards
Frank Gore: 115 yards/2 TD/35 receiving
(Dhawan)
Jay Cutler/ Brandon Marshall/ Eddie Royal/
Brandon Stokley/ Tony Sheffler/ Daniel Graham
Tatum Bell/ Peyton Hillis (vs. ATL)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -11.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -8.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -3.5%
Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler exploded last week for a monster
400 yard, 3 TD game. Injuries to the running game have rendered
it non-existent. Most in fantasy circles see this as a boon, but
it may prove costly down the stretch. Lost in the victory last
week were Cutler’s several near INTs [but only one confirmed
INT] versus a bad pass defense. Against better defenses, Cutler
will not be so lucky and has shown this year his propensity for
locking onto receivers gets him into trouble and forced mistakes.
This week for instance, he faces a tough Falcons defense that
surely allowed 400 yards to Drew Brees last week, but also forced
3 turnovers. Cutler is no Brees yet, so expect high yards, but
INTs will be there.
Running Game Thoughts: How much magic is left in Mike Shanahan’s
bag? Renowned for constantly producing thoroughbreds, the Denver
stable is running out of horses. Selvin Young reinjured his groin
injury on his lone 2 yard carry, and rookie Ryan Torain broke
his owners’ hearts with an ACL tear during his debut 60
yard, 1TD performance. Castoff Tatum Bell [insert watch your luggage
joke here] was resigned this week, and fullback Peyton Hillis
remains in the mix. Hills carried 8 times for 24 yards last week,
and two weeks ago caught passes for 100yards when the Dolphins
bracketed Brandon Marshall all day long. Either way, this is not
promising for production or balance for Jay Cutler and the passing
game. Do not expect many yards here versus the rugged Falcons
defense at home.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 280 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Brandon Marshall: 80 rec/1TD
Eddie Royal: 70 rec
Brandon Stokley: 40 rec
Tony Sheffler: 50 rec
Daniel Graham: 30 rec
Tatum Bell: 35 rush
Peyton Hillis: 40 rush/1 TD
Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/ Brian
Finneran/ Justin Peelle
Michael Turner/ Jerious Norwood (vs. DEN)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +2.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -11.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +85.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +43.0%
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan is gaining confidence at an
exponential rate. Every week we find new things to laud upon this
young signal caller. It simply cannot be overlooked that the tailoring
job the Falcons staff has done is outstanding. It is interesting
that the Falcons management questioned those 19 INTs last year
at Boston College: what if there was NFL talent receiving those
passes instead of normal college talent? We have the answer, as
Ryan consistently completes his deep fades to Roddy White and
Michael Jenkins. He should excel against a Champ Bailey-less secondary
and pick on even Dre Bly this week with another efficient performance.
Roddy White and Michael Jenkins remain weekly plays as fantasy
WR1 and WR3.
Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner owners are drooling at this
week’s match up with Denver. The Falcons running back has
been a monster at home, and his two early season masterpiece performances
were against woeful rush defenses. Enter the Broncos, ranked 29th
in overall defense and 27th in rush defense, still with their
two best defenders, CB Champ Bailey [groin] and LB DJ Williams
[knee], out of the lineup. Turner should mulch this unit for great
yardage and scores. If a likely blowout ensues, Jerious Norwood
will also be a solid play this week.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 240 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Roddy White: 100 rec/1TD
Michael Jenkins: 50 rec/ 1 TD
Brian Finneran: 40 rec
Justin Peelle: 20 rec
Michael Turner: 130 rush/2 TD
Jerious Norwood: 50 rush/1 TD
(Dhawan)
Daunte Culpepper/Calvin Johnson/Shaun McDonald/Mike
Furrey/Michael Gaines/John Owens
Kevin Smith/Rudi Johnson (vs. CAR)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -14.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -21.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +25.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -3.7%
Passing Game Thoughts: Not exactly the shining moment for your
team when talks of possibly going 0-16 are the media hype. The
Detroit Cats, err Lions, are in serious contention for this dubious
distinction. Fresh off flipping burgers and polishing his massive
ego, QB Daunte Culpepper gets his second start. He showed last
week he can still bomb a lofty pass to tall, speedy receivers.
If they can at least target super receiver Calvin Johnson more
than 5 times and complete more than 2 passes to him, they have
a chance to stay competitive in games. Do not expect much against
the league’s 4th best pass defense unit. WR Shaun McDonald
had gained value, but is moot now; WR Mike Furrey might be better
off sitting out with his concussion.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie RB Kevin Smith keeps showing he
can play in this league, despite the coaching staff forcing the
ball to RB Rudi Johnson. Smith posted a nice 96 yards and a TD
on 23 carries last week, and might be a solid play versus the
mediocre rush defense of the Panthers [ranked a middle of the
pack 17th overall]. If the Lions want a chance at a Panthers upset,
they need to lull them to sleep with early running to set up the
play action bomb. Smith might actually post real time versus garbage
time stats this week.
Projections:
Daunte Culpepper: 170 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Calvin Johnson: 80 rec/1 TD
Shaun McDonald: 40 rec
Mike Furrey: concussion
Michael Gaines: 20 rec
John Owens: 20 rec
Kevin Smith: 75 rush/1TD
Rudi Johnson: 35 rush
Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad/Dwayne
Jarrett/ Jeff King
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (vs. DET)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +17.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +18.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +35.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +14.0%
Passing Game Thoughts: QB Jake Delhomme and the passing game
is not exactly the reason for the Panthers 7-2 record. They rank
a poor 23rd overall, and the explosive plays of WR Steve Smith
have been dormant the past month. Last week, Oakland cover corner
Nnamdi Asomugha blanketed Smith to the tune of 1 reception for
9 yards. Lost in that performance was that jettisoned overpaid
ex-Oakland CB DeAngelo Hall also is capable of such a performance,
doing the same thing to Smith early last year in a game, only
to meltdown with 2 crucial personal fouls in a game winning Panthers
drive. Delhomme should find room to hit his receivers against
the bad Lions, and an efficient performance will be the order
off the menu after a dreadful 70 yard, 4 INT game last week.
Running Game Thoughts: The schizophrenic running game of the
Panthers was on display last week versus Oakland. RB DeAngelo
Williams broke another long TD run, breaking two open field tackles
to reward his owners. Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart might be relegated
to backup after two back-to-back sub-10 carry games with minimal
yardage. His goal line prowess has not made him a useful fantasy
start recently, but this week could be an exception with several
scoring opportunities in a possible blowout.
Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 215 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Steve Smith: 85 rec/1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 60 rec
Dwayne Jarrett: 40 rec
Jeff King: 25 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 80 rush/1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 50 rush/ 2TD
(Dhawan)
Gus Frerotte/Bernard Berrian/Sidney Rice/Bobby
Wade/Aundrae Allison/Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor (vs. TB)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -38.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -34.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -19.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -37.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: QB Gus Frerotte is not pretty, but somehow
the Vikings are winning. He continues to be plagued by INTs, tossing
three last week, one returned for a TD. WR Bernard Berrian got
blanked by physical Packers CB Al Harris last week, but he should
find room to operate in the deep middle of the Tampa2, as deep
balls have always been the scheme’s antidote. Frerotte will
still make mistakes against this unit, but yardage and TDs should
be there. Watch for the Vikings trying to isolate tall WR Sidney
Rice on shorter CBs Ronde Barber and Phillip Buchanon in the red
zone.
Running Game Thoughts: Viewers were forced to grunt and cheer
in admiration and joy like an old episode of Tim Allen’s
“Home Improvement” last week watching man beast RB
Adrian Peterson literally carry the Vikings to victory. Despite
the mistakes from the QB position or himself, Peterson atoned
and willed this squad to a huge win over a division rival with
aggressive yet patient running and timely explosive gains [evidenced
by the graphic last week tracking his carries by yards]. Veteran
WLB Derrick Brooks and the 11th ranked rush defense unit will
have their hands full this week, and Peterson should still be
productive with yards and TDs. He is hitting his stride and gaining
synchrony with his offensive line; furthermore, we do not see
the bad performances from him as we did last year scattered among
his huge games. This consistency was a big key in the analysis
of his being worthy of a number1 overall fantasy pick.
Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 215 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Bernard Berrian: 70 rec
Sidney Rice: 40 rec/1TD
Bobby Wade: 20 rec
Aundrae Allison: 20 rec
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 rec
Adrian Peterson: 130 rush/2 TD
Chester Taylor: 30 rush/30 rec
Jeff Garcia/Antonio Bryant/Joey Galloway/Ike
Hilliard/Michael Clayton/Jerramy Stevens/Alex Smith
Earnest Graham/Warrick Dunn (vs. MIN)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -7.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -6.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +48.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.9%
Passing Game Thoughts: QB Jeff Garcia reminded everyone that
he is still among the hard-as-nails craftiest players in the league
when he orchestrated a comeback victory over the worthy Chiefs
two weeks ago. He found 9 different pass catchers while completing
over 70% of his passes for 339 yards, 1TD and 1INT. The Vikings
secondary is supposed to be a unit against which you can pass,
especially when the mammoth DTs are stuffing the running game;
however, DE Jared Allen and those aforementioned DTs came alive
in the pass rush last week, and will be aggressive attacking the
mobile Garcia to disrupt his timing and launch point. He may struggle
early, but heat up in the end.
Running Game Thoughts: The only worries here are whether the
Tampa RBs will get eaten by DTs Kevin and Pat Williams. These
two premier linemen dominate the interior of the run defense,
and have been a pass rush force as of late as well. RB earnest
Graham is nursing a sore knee, so his production is in further
jeopardy. Warrick Dunn would normally be attractive, but not in
this match up with this particular defense. Temper all expectations.
Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 275 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Antonio Bryant: 75 rec/1 TD
Joey Galloway: 50 rec
Ike Hilliard: 50 rec
Michael Clayton: 30 rec
Jerramy Stevens: 30rec
Alex Smith: 30 rec/1 TD
Earnest Graham: 35 rush
Warrick Dunn: 30 rush
(Dhawan)
Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Andre
Davis/Owen Daniels
Steve Slaton/Ahman Green (vs. IND)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -30.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -36.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -16.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +12.8%
Passing Game Thoughts: Sage Rosenfels was reasonable through
3 quarters last week, but terrible in the last stanza. He finished
with 4 INTs and sparked the avalanche that became a 4 TD blowout.
His ball security and decision-making are bad, and this team does
not have the personnel to overcome these mistakes. He has the
weapons to post nice stats against the Colts pass defense, and
did so last meeting at Reliant Stadium earlier this year. This
was also the scene of his infamous failed attempt to duplicate
John Elway’s heroic dive and helicopter spin in the Super
Bowl; instead, getting smacked by Colts defenders, fumbling the
ball away, and scripting a second fumble for a Colts comeback.
S Bob Sanders is back healthy and makes all the difference for
this defensive unit. On the road and amidst talks of 2009 changes,
expect more mistakes from Rosenfels. Look for RB Steve Slaton
to also catch a lot of passes in a blowout.
Running Game Thoughts: HC Gary Kubiak hinted that rookie RB Steve
Slaton might have hit the proverbial rookie wall last week. Slaton
was apparently worn out during practices leading up to a dismal
4 carry, 7 yard performance against the Ravens. He needs to be
a factor this week for the Texans to maintain balance, but the
return of Bob Sanders bodes badly for that outcome.
Projections:
Sage Rosenfels: 195 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Andre Johnson: 60 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 40 rec
Andre Davis: 20 rec
Owen Daniels: 30 rec
Steve Slaton: 80 rush/1TD
Ahman Green: 35 rush
Peyton Manning/ Marvin Harrison/ Reggie Wayne/
Anthony Gonzalez/ Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/ Dominic Rhodes (vs. HOU)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +7.0%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -9.5%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +8.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +33.3%
Passing Game Thoughts: The league is on notice once again: never
underestimate #18. It is more shocking than blasphemous that this
is the case for Peyton Manning this season. In a hostile environment
on the road against the #1 defense I the league, Manning threw
3 TDs and could have had 2 more if not for Marvin Harrison’s
drops. This writer has a well documented summer track record of
predicting the demise of Harrison. It was rather easy to connect
the dots of the knee surgeries, subsequent loss of confidence
in body and health, and catastrophic drop in on-field skill and
production. Even the rudimentary analysts were commenting last
week that it is sad to watch Harrison looking “used up”
during the Steelers game. Meanwhile, back at the Bat cave, WR
Reggie “stately Wayne-manor” is doing his best Tom
Brady impression, showing up on the injury report but performing
at a high level [116 yards and a TD last week]. The Colts are
gaining confidence in themselves and their pass protection has
drastically improved over the past month. Expect Manning to deliver
a monster performance, something yet to be done at new home Lucas
Oil Stadium.
Running Game Thoughts: Dominic Rhodes made a big catch in the
victory last week, catching a precisely floated pass behind overrated
S Troy Polamalu [sorry, another topic for another time]. RB Joseph
Addai continues to struggle running the ball, averaging only 3.1YPC
and not finding the holes for his normal slashes and gains. Keep
Rhodes on the back burner as he still gets opportunities. Addai
may get it going with some TDs this week in a blowout, and that
may boost his confidence.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 310 pass/4 TD/0 INT
Marvin Harrison: 35 rec/1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 120 rec/ 1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 60 rec/1 TD
Dallas Clark: 75 rec/1 TD
Dominic Rhodes: 40 rush
Joseph Addai: 40 rush/2 TD
(Dhawan)
Kerry Collins/Justin Gage/Justin McCareins/Brandon
Jones/LaVelle Hawkins/ Bo Scaife/Alge Crumpler
LenDale White/Chris Johnson (vs. JAX)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -1.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -1.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -12.2%
Passing Game Thoughts: Running game? Check. Suffocating defense?
Check. Game manager QB? Check. Actually pass the football and
win the game QB? Check. Kerry Collins and the Titans love answering
the critics every week, and showed the old man still has it when
he diced the Bears secondary with outs, ins, dig routes, and slants
on the way to a victory and a 289 yard performance. This team
and its QB gain confidence and knowledge that they can adapt to
any game story and be successful in a variety of ways. Collins
and HC Jeff Fisher probably do not want to pass the football 41
times, so do not expect these kinds of stats again [just cry that
you did not get them into your lineup---who expected those numbers
against the Bears?]
Running Game Thoughts: For the first time all season, we saw
the Titans offensive line and running game neutralized. Tackles
David Stewart and Michael Roos could not control the edges, even
though C Kevin Mawae controlled MLB Brian Urlacher [only 4 tackles].
But persistence led to victory, and fantasy owners got a token
score by LenDale White on his 10 carry, 14 yard day. Rookie Chris
“Superjets” Johnson could not escape hard-hitting
LB Lance Briggs [11 tackles] or S Mike Brown on the run blitzes,
and was not a factor on the screen. Both runners should find redemption
against the soft Jags rush defense, who yielded 100 yards to the
hapless Lions last week.
Projections:
Kerry Collins: 180 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Justin Gage: 30 rec
Justin McCareins: 30 rec
Brandon Jones: 40 rec
LaVelle Hawkins: 20 rec
Bo Scaife: 50rec/1TD
Alge Crumpler: 20 rec
LenDale White: 80 rush/2 TD
Chris Johnson: 90 rush/1 TD
David Garrard/Jerry Porter/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie
Williams/Matt Jones/Marcedes Lewis
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. TEN)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +16.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -29.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +49.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: The Jaguars and fantasy owners finally
found WR Jerry Porter, and it only took 2 months. Porter found
the end zone for the first time since week17 of last season. David
Garrard looked comfortable against a bad defense, and needed the
confidence boost of a 240 yard, 2TD, and 70% completions day.
Do not let this confidence allow him to crack your lineup this
week. He remains a mediocre fantasy producer this year overall,
and against the tougher defenses, he has only dinked and dunked
his way down the field for modest production. Dolphins LB Joey
Porter and the rest of the fantasy world await the suspension
news of WR Matt Jones.
Running Game Thoughts: One more lost opportunity for fantasy
owners looking to acquire HB Maurice Jones-Drew from disappointed
owners. With trade deadlines looming [or past], Jones-Drew still
has two soft match ups left against the Texans and Packers. He
was great last week with 3 TDs [the most since his rookie campaign],
but will find it hard to duplicate that this week against the
Titans, despite Matt Forte’s mild success last week. Fred
Taylor eclipsed 11000 yards for his career, and used the bad Lions
to get back on track with a healthy 4.4YPC, an improvement over
this season’s sub-par 3.5YPC. Owners should temper expectations
this week versus this defense.
Projections:
David Garrard: 200 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Jerry Porter: 40 rec
Dennis Northcutt: 40 rec
Reggie Williams: 40 rec
Matt Jones: 60 rec/1 TD
Marcedes Lewis: 20 rec
Fred Taylor: 50 rush/1 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew: 50 rush
Tony Romo / Terrell Owens / Roy Williams
/ Patrick Crayton / Jason Witten
Marion Barber (vs. WAS)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -12.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -8.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -43.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -20.5%
Passing Game Thoughts: The
Cowboys have been waiting for the return of their leader and this
week they get Romo back from an injured pinkie for an important
division game against the Redskins. During Romo's absence the
Brad Johnson/Brooks Bollinger combo averaged 163 passing yards
and 1 TD per game making Terrell Owens an sad panda. Romo and
Owens reportedly spent extra time this week trying to get in sync.
We'll see how that plays out on the field. The Redskins have been
solid on defense this year and represent a neutral matchup for
opposing passing attacks. They've been especially tough on tight
ends but Witten (fractured rib) is Romo's security blanket, so
don't be surprised if the all-pro TE ends up with a score.
Running Game Thoughts: Marion
Barber has hit the skids the last couple of weeks averaging only
2.8 yds per carry during his last two games. He should get the
bulk of the carries against Washington as Felix Jones continues
to miss practice time with a hamstring injury and likely won't
play. Barber had only 8 carries for 26 yards in their previous
matchup as Romo was busy tossing the rock for 300 yards and 3
TDs. Expect a more balanced attack this time around but temper
your enthusiasm as the Redskins have given up only one 100-yd
rushing game this season (Brandon Jacobs).
Projections:
Tony Romo: 235 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Terrell Owens: 70 rec/TD
Roy Williams: 40 rec
Patrick Crayton: 40 rec
Jason Witten: 45rec/TD
Marion Barber: 65 rush/25 rec/ TD
Jason Campbell / Santana Moss / Antwaan Randle
El / Chris Cooley
Ladell Betts / Shaun Alexander (vs. DAL)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +16.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -29.7%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +49.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -30.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: Jason
Campbell is a marginal fantasy quarterback but did perform well
in Washington's Week 4 matchup against Dallas throwing for 230
yards and 2 scores. Once again his favorite target should be Santana
Moss who always seems to do well in divisional games. For his
career, Moss is averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game against
Dallas and is a must start.
Running Game Thoughts: Washington
comes into this matchup nursing injuries in the backfield. Clinton
Portis has not practiced all week and is expected to miss the
game with a sprained knee. A tough blow as Portis torched the
Cowboys defense for 121 yards back in Week 4. It’s likely
that Ladell Betts, recovering from his own sprained knee, will
be in the starting lineup. He's practiced all week wearing a brace
and will be backed up by veteran Shaun Alexander.
Projections:
Jason Campbell: 210 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Santana Moss: 85 rec/ TD
Antwaan Randle El: 50 rec
Chris Cooley: 50 rec/TD
Ladell Betts: 45 rush/10 rec
Shaun Alexander: 30 rush
|