11/7/08
BAL @ HOU | NO
@ ATL | BUF @ NE | STL @ NYJ
| SEA @ MIA | NYG @ PHI | CAR
@ OAK
KC @ SD | SF @ ARI | TEN
@ CHI | JAX @ DET | GB @ MIN
| IND @ PIT
(Dhawan)
Joe Flacco/Derrick Mason/Mark Clayton/Demetrius
Williams/Todd Heap
Willis McGahee/LeRon McClain/Ray Rice (vs. HOU)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -10.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +14.8%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +19.8%
Passing Game Thoughts: QB Joe Flacco is buying the hype: he and
fellow rookie QB Matt Ryan of the Falcons are frontrunners for
Rookie of the Year Honors (along with Titans HB Chris “Superjets”
Johnson). Thus, he has elevated his play to keep up with Ryan
and started showing off his cannon arm more often. Last week,
he raced downfield for a 40-yard reception; this week, he rifled
two long scoring passes (28 yards to Derrick Mason, 47 yards to
Mark Clayton). Against bad defenses, he has received enough run
support to be effective and learn his throws. This week will be
no different versus the Texans, who have only heat-seeking missile
DE Mario Williams as a pass rush threat.
Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice has posted back-to-back games
with great stats. Last week, he punished the Browns with a monster
150-plus yards, including a fourth-quarter, game-icing, 60-yard
burst. HB Willis McGahee remains as fragile as the winning items
on Antique Road Show. Just when he shows ability to carry 20-plus
times, he gets nicked with nagging injuries (ankle, knee). Rice
is the hot waiver wire pickup this week (if available), or finally
dusted off the bench for patient owners versus the 23rd ranked
rush defense unit.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 225 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Derrick Mason: 80 rec/1TD
Mark Clayton: 65 rec
Demetrius Williams: 30 rec
Todd Heap: 30 rec
Willis McGahee: questionable
LeRon McClain: 40 rush/1 TD
Ray Rice: 95 rush/1 TD
Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Andre
Davis/Owen Daniels
Steve Slaton/Ahman Green (vs. BAL)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.9%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -1.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +35.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -38.6%
Passing Game Thoughts: Sage Rosenfels has the reins of HC Gary
Kubiak’s offense for the next month, as starter Matt Schaub
is out with an MCL sprain. Rosenfels came off the bench last week
in Minnesota to complete better than 70% of his passes for 2 TDs.
He has a quick release and tempo with the offense, especially
keen at distributing the ball to all his weapons, including hot-streak,
WR Andre Johnson, WR Kevin Walter, and TE Owen Daniels, who had
a huge game with 11 receptions for 133 yards. This week is a difficult
trek against the 2nd best defensive unit in the league, anchored
by legendary MLB Ray Lewis, playmaking OLB/DE hybrid Terrell Suggs
(two INT return TDs in past three weeks), under-the-radar MLB
Bart Scott, and super S Ed Reed.
Running Game Thoughts: Steve Slaton has continued his solid rookie
campaign. He is averaging 70 yards over his past 5 weeks, including
a nice 8-reception, 56-yard contribution in the loss to the Vikings.
He maintains a solid 4.5YPC and a healthy dose of 15-plus carries
per game. Ahman Green contributed his 5o yards per game in relief,
and is wowing owners with his health. The Ravens are stout against
the run, with mammoth DTs Justin Bannan and amazingly-nimble-for-his-size,
Haloti Ngata (both with zone-blitz, drop back INTs this season).
Expect tempered production for this rushing crew this week.
Projections:
Sage Rosenfels: 220 pass/1 TD/3 INT
Andre Johnson: 80 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 40 rec
Andre Davis: 30 rec
Owen Daniels: 50 rec
Steve Slaton: 40 rush/30rec
Ahman Green: 25 rush
(Dhawan)
Drew Brees/Devery Henderson/David Patten/Robert
Meachem/ Lance Moore/Billy Miller
Reggie Bush/Pierre Thomas/Deuce McAllister (vs. ATL)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +3.4%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -14.3%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +26.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -11.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is on the short list for NFL
MVP (grizzled veteran Kurt Warner is also meriting consideration
for his 3rd award). In half a season, he has 2500 yards, on pace
to match Marino’s 1984 total (5084 passing yards). Analysts
and gurus are amazed at this production despite the injuries and
shifting lineups of the Saints pass catchers and runners. Now
HB Reggie Bush has been out for nearly a month, and his routes
out of the backfield are important in the spacing of the Saints
pass game. Devery Henderson is still a reliable deep threat, but
young Robert Meachem has slowed after some sparkling September
performances. Expect Brees to attain his normal lofty stats in
this key division match for NFC playoff picture down the stretch.
Watch for DE John Abraham (10 sacks this season) matching up against
LT Jamaal Brown.
Running Game Thoughts: Deuce McAllister was solid in an overseas
battle with the Chargers last week, posting 55 yards and a TD.
He will get the rushes at least the next 3 weeks as HB Reggie
Bush recovers from having his knee scoped (medial meniscus repair).
The key here is New Orleans ranked 1st in total offense, yet 29th
in rushing offense. The Falcons rush defense is ranked 22nd, despite
their solid play and overall 5-3 record, so something should give
here. Watch rookie LB Curtis Lofton playing solidly for the rush
defense.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 320 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Marques Colston: 70 rec/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 70 rec/1 TD
David Patten: out
Robert Meachem: 40 rec
Lance Moore: 70 rec
Billy Miller: 40 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 30 rec
Reggie Bush: out [knee]
Deuce McAllister: 60 rush/1 TD
Pierre Thomas: 30 rush
Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/ Laurent
Robinson
Michael Turner/ Jerious Norwood (vs. NO)
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +1.2%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -3.6%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +22.1%
OPP FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -8.4%
Passing Game Thoughts: A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far
away, the Atlanta Falcons and their owner were a laughingstock
and sympathy case: spurned by a new coach, betrayed by the lies
of the franchise QB, and empty at key positions in upper management.
Start with 2 parts GM Thomas Dimitroff and HC Mike Smith, add
1 scoop of 3rd overall draft pick QB Matt Ryan, chop 2 pounds
of free agent HB Michael Turner, 1 cup of run blocking LT Sam
Baker, and peel away disgruntled and head case CB DeAngelo Hall,
pour over ice, and you have the sweet recipe for a tasty drink
called the new 5-3 Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan is a favorite for
Rookie of the Year, playing at a high level at the toughest position
in the league, especially for fresh collegiate players. The chemistry
with WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins has rapidly increased,
showing off in the embarrassment of former Falcon DeAngelo Hall
in Sunday’s demolition of the Raiders (Ryan connected with
Jenkins and burned Hall for two TDs(. This week starts the second
half of the season, and the tough NFC South has all teams in the
playoff mix. This game will show a lot for the young passer and
this team’s hopes for a January berth and success.
Running Game Thoughts: Michael Turner continues his fabulous breakout
season, rumbling for 139 yards last week on 31 carries in the
blowout of the hapless Raiders. Turner demonstrates the late game
durability and wearing down of defenses we saw him take advantage
of in San Diego playing behind Tomlinson and their superior offensive
line. The story on Turner is still that his explosive games come
against bad teams, and he is average versus stern opponents. His
schedule still has 4 soft defenses slated (Saints twice, Rams,
and Broncos), with 3 tough defenses and a game against his former
Chargers where his adrenaline will surely be driving him to perform
well. Look for a nice game this week in a key match up.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 220 pass/2TD/1INT
Roddy White: 120 rec/1TD
Michael Jenkins: 50 rec/ 1 TD
Laurent Robinson: 30 rec
Michael Turner: 100 rush/20 rec/2TD
Jerious Norwood: 40 rush
(Marcoccio)
Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish/Robert
Royal
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season:
MIA, StL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season:
KC, NYJ, SF, IND
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.0/26.2/5.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 8.6
Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards was harassed by Kris Jenkins
and the Jets’ defense last week (5 sacks). He was picked
off twice and didn’t look as poised as we’ve been
accustomed to seeing him, but still managed 289 yards passing
and a TD. TEs Robert Royal and Derrick Fine picked up the slack
for missing possession WR Josh Reed by grabbing 5 balls for 70
yards and 4 for 43 yards and a TD, respectively. But the Jets
have been very generous to opposing TEs all season so don’t
necessarily rush out to grab a Bills TE. Even without Josh Reed
in the line-up rookie James Hardy was a non-factor and it was
Roscoe Parrish who was a bigger part of the passing game.
The Patriots allowed Peyton Manning to get back on track last
Sunday night and he tossed two touchdown passes to slot receiver
Anthony Gonzalez. On the season, the Pats are ranked 13th in passing
yards allowed (1,698), and have allowed 13 TDs in 8 games, so
they can be vulnerable through the air.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch was shaken up a little during
the first half and had his worst game of the season against the
tough Jet run defense. Lynch managed only 16 yards on nine carries,
but did contribute 52 receiving yards with most coming on one
long catch and run early in the contest. The Bills o-line was
overmatched against a Jet defense missing its best run defender,
and is a below average unit which doesn’t help the hard
running Lynch.
The Patriots are ranked 14th against the run giving up 840 yards
on the season, but have held opponents to only 4 rushing TD. They
have not been an ideal match up for opposing RBs. Over the last
three weeks, they have only allowed 8.6 fantasy points per game
to opposing RBs, making them the worst possible match up. However,
they did face Michael Pittman, Antonio Pittman, and a recovering
Joseph Addai during those games, which certainly helped make those
numbers look better.
Projections:
Trent Edwards: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Lee Evans: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 45 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Fred Jackson: 30 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 85 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Matt Cassell/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Benjamin
Watson
Benjarvus Green-Ellis/Kevin Faulk (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season:
StL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season:
ARI
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.5/18.8/6.0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.6
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Cassell played a decent game last
week and may now have shown enough to attract some suitors when
he’s a free-agent next season. He is still not asked to
do much by Bill Belichick and that’s not likely to change
much for the rest of the season. Randy Moss has been very inconsistent
due to the reigns Belichick has placed on Cassell. Despite Cassell’s
inconsistency, Moss still has potential to post some big games.
Wes Welker has been a very effective WR2 in ppr leagues as he
knows how to get open and his quickness allows him to pick up
yardage after the catch. Benjamin Watson, who at one time had
the fantasy world enamored by his physical attributes, has been
a non-factor for the most part and is likely found in many league’s
FA pools.
Buffalo is the 11th ranked passing defense in the NFL, giving
up 202.8 yards passing per game and has allowed 7 TDs through
the air for the season. They have not generated much of a pass
rush this season (13 sacks) and will likely be missing DE Aaron
Schoebel this week. They have not forced many interceptions, but
did manage to return a Brett Favre pass for a touchdown last week.
This could be a week that Cassell is able to play reasonably well
since he should have time in the pocket.
Running Game Thoughts: Laurence Maroney is on IR and Lamont Jordan
and Sammy Morris have been slowed by injuries, opening the door
for the under-appreciated, Kevin Faulk and undrafted rookie, Benjarvus
Green-Ellis, who combined for 117 yards and a TD on the ground
last week. It is unknown if Morris or Jordan will be back this
week and don’t expect the Pats to be exactly forthcoming
with this info, making it difficult to project RB stats or rely
on either in fantasy match ups.
Buffalo’s run defense is effective, but not elite. Kawika
Mitchell was signed from the world champion Giants and has combined
with Paul Posluszny, who missed most of his rookie season due
to injury, to form a dangerous line backing corp. They allow only
98.9 yards per game, but have allowed 9 TDs in 8 games.
Projections:
Matt Cassell: 245 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 INT
Randy Moss: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Benjamin Watson: 15 yds receiving
Kevin Faulk: 55 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Benjarvus Green-Ellis: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
(Marcoccio)
Marc Bulger/Tory Holt/Donnie Avery/Joe
Klopfenstein
Stephen Jackson (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season:
NE, BUF
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season:
MIA, SD, BUF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.05
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.2/15.1/13.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11.9
Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback Marc Bulger was treated like
a piñata by opposing defenses last season, and still seems
to be showing some effects from those beatings. He simply is not
comfortable in the pocket, possessing happy feet and getting rid
of the ball too early at times. The Rams likely regret giving
him the huge contract extension, but are now hitched to him for
a while. Rookie Donnie Avery was on the verge of fantasy superstardom
over the last couple of weeks, but after catching opposing defensive
coordinators attention teams will game plan against him more often.
Last week he only managed 3 catches for 26 yards. Meanwhile, Tory
Holt, who had struggled all season long, had his first fantasy
starter worthy performance of 2008 catching 6 balls for 58 yards
and a TD.
While the Jets’ pass defense has given up a lot of yardage
(1,891) and 11 TDs on the season, putting them in the bottom 10
in the league, CBs Darrell Reivas and Dwight Lowery have played
very well. Once again, the Jets allowed another TE to score against
them. This time it was unknown Derrick Fine, who was left wide
open in the end zone. They have been the second best match up
for your fantasy TE over the last three weeks and all season long
for that matter – if Joe Klopfenstein was ever going to
score this would be this one. However, I can’t suggest picking
him up and starting him unless you are truly desperate. The pass
rush has been very impressive (29 sacks) and can get after the
passer in many ways. Last week, it was NT Kris Jenkins getting
constant pressure up the middle. Safety Abram Elam filling in
for injured Erik Smith managed to pick off Trent Edwards and return
it for a TD, a big play the unit has lacked for most of 2008.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson played through his deep
thigh bruise last week but was largely ineffective. Backup RB
Antonio Pittman suffered an injury during the contest and is expected
to miss the remainder of the season, possibly opening the door
for former Alabama runner Kenneth Darby since Jackson is expected
to be a game time decision. Veteran Samkon Gado was signed this
week to add some depth to the unit that has lost Pittman and prior
to that Brian Leonard. The Jets are very tough on opposing fantasy
runners so Darby isn’t recommended despite the temptation
if Jackson can’t go.
The Jets’ run defense has been tremendously improved over
last season due in large part (pun may be intended) NT Kris Jenkins.
The unit shut down the Bills last week despite missing second
year ILB David Harris and replacing him with out of position DE
David Bowens. Harris is expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks. The
Jets are the fourth ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only
76 yards per game, but Harris’ loss could hurt.
Projections:
Marc Bulger: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Tory Holt: 65 yds receiving
Donnie Avery: 80 yds receiving
Joe Klopfenstein: 20 yds receiving, 1 TD
Stephen Jackson: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving
Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Dustin
Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. StL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season:
NYG
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season:
SEA, BUF, NE
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27.15
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.4/22.8/6.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24.7
Passing Game Thoughts: Brett Favre played game manager last week
in Buffalo after the media lambasted him. His head coach “talked
to” him about his recent carelessness with the ball. It
seems akin to having Kirk Cameron – now a producer –
try to have a talk with Clint Eastwood about directing, don’t
you think? Favre still threw an interception that was returned
for a TD by the Bills, but for the most part was efficient throwing
short safe passes. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles are
one of the more under-rated tandems in the league. While neither
are elite WRs both a strong to the ball with deceptive speed and
sticky hands. Favre seem to enjoy each of them and they have both
been very solid WR2s for fantasy owners.
The Rams defense was starting to show real improvement after defensive
coordinator Jim Haslett replaced Scott Linehan as head coach,
but last week they were lit up by the Cardinals. Of course Kurt
Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston have
been putting up big numbers on almost every defense they have
faced this season, so perhaps it wasn’t as much of a regression
by the Rams as it was a speed bump. On the season, the Rams are
ranked 28th in passing yards allowed so they are not a difficult
match up even if they have improved a little.
Running Game Thoughts: Thomas Jones scored another rushing TD
and now has 6 on the season (with 1 receiving TD). Not bad when
you remember he only scored once all of last season. Leon Washington
is looking more and more like a player that needs to be on the
field for the Jets. In the past, he has had difficulty breaking
tackles and running inside, but this season has been a different
story. Whether it’s because he has added some bulk or improved
his balance he has been effective inside and does not always go
down on first contact.
The Rams give up 155.5 yards per game on the ground and have allowed
12 rushing TDs in 8 games. Obviously, fantasy owners are not upset
to see their RBs facing the Rams. Last week they allowed rookie
Tim Hightower to earn his first 100-yard game, breaking off a
30-yard TD run in the process – so start ‘em if you
got ’em when the Rams are on the schedule.
Projections:
Brett Favre: 275 yds passing 3 TDs, 1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery : 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dustin Keller: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Leon Washington: 45 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving
Thomas Jones: 115 yds rushing. 1 TD / 10 yds receiving
(Marcoccio)
Seneca Wallace/Bobby Engram/Koren Robinson/John
Carlson
Julius Jones/Maurice Morris (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season:
NYJ, ARI, NE
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.8/17.1/2.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24.1
Passing Game Thoughts: The lone bright spot for the Seattle passing
game all season has been the play of rookie TE John Carlson. Of
course, Carlson has been merely “effective”, so that
tells you all you really need to know. Matt Hasselbeck has missed
the last four games with knee and back injuries and the timetable
for his return is cloudy. Veteran back-up Seneca Wallace has been
adequate, but is not very accurate and does not appear to be a
QB that can win many games at the NFL level if he is a long term
starter. Former and now current Seahawk, Koren Robinson, had a
90-yard TD reception last week, but can not be counted on for
consistent production.
Miami’s pass defense is ranked 26th in the NFL after giving
up 1,938 yards and 11 TDs through the air in 8 weeks. Over the
last three weeks, the numbers above indicate that they have not
been particularly generous to opposing passing games despite facing
Jay Cutler and Trent Edwards in two of those games. No doubt I
should tell you that starting Seneca Wallace may not be a great
idea, but I expect you probably felt that way regardless.
Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones had a decent two week stretch
earlier this season, but he has returned to the unimpressive,
poor-vision, back that he was in Dallas. Maurice Morris has been
the more impressive back since his return from injury, but he
just doesn’t have the size to carry a full load. The Seattle
o-line has been in steady decline and is making it tough on both
backs by failing to consistently open holes.
The Miami run defense has been a relatively tough unit on opposing
RBs all season. They are currently the 8th ranked run defense
in the league having allowed 717 yards and 5 TDs in 8 games. Joey
Porter has returned to all-pro form after a terrible 2007 season,
which has helped improve the unit. Over the last three weeks,
the numbers above indicate that they haven’t been as tough
a fantasy match up as earlier in the season, but Buffalo and Baltimore
have impressive running games and last week they absolutely shut
down Denver.
Projections:
Seneca Wallace: 175 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Koren Robinson: 45 yds receiving
Bobby Engram: 35 yds receiving
John Carlson: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Julius Jones: 55 yds rushing
Maurice Morris: 35 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Chad Pennington/Greg Camarillo/Ted Ginn,
Jr./Anthony Fasano/David Martin
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season:
BUF, TB
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season:
BUF, SF, StL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 12.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.9/21.7/10.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.2
Passing Game Thoughts: Chad Pennington was one of the least heralded
off season acquisitions in 2008, but has made as big an impact
with his new team as anyone. He has the Dolphins at 4-4 after
the team won one game all of last season. He threw for 281 yards
in last week’s victory over the Broncos in Denver. Greg
Camarillo continued being Pennington’s “go to guy”
in the offense grabbing 11 balls for 111 yards.
Surprisingly Seattle is the 31st ranked pass defense in the NFL
ahead of only San Diego. They allow 258 passing yards per game
and have given up 13 passing TDs on the season. They play even
worse on the road which doesn’t bode well, especially for
a team traveling about as far as one can for a road NFL game.
Pennington could be an interesting choice for owners who have
recently lost their QB to injury.
Running Game Thoughts: Ronnie Brown has cooled off a little in
recent weeks from his torrid pace in the Wildcat offense, but
managed 59 yards and a TD last week. Ricky Williams was not very
productive against a porous Bronco run defense and has been mostly
disappointing this season after a very impressive training camp.
The Seahawks’ run defense has slipped from as high as No.
4 after four weeks to No. 20 after 8 games. They allow 115.5 yards
per game, but have only allowed 6 TDs on the ground. This has
been a very disappointing year for what was looking like one of
the best young defenses in the league after the last couple of
seasons.
Projections:
Chad Pennington: 245 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Greg Camarillo: 75 yds receiving
Ted Ginn, Jr.: 35 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
David Martin: 30 yds receiving
Ricky Williams: 45 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
(Marcoccio)
Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Steve
Smith/Kevin Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season:
DAL
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles season: DAL
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.5/24.4/2.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.1
Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning only had to throw 27 passes
last week against a decimated Cowboy secondary, but managed to
throw TD passes to three different receivers within his 16 completions.
Second-year WR, Steve Smith, was once again the Giants’
leading receiver – and some may be surprised to learn that
he leads the Giants in receptions this season. Plaxico Burris
only caught 3 passes on the day and Eli (and the team) may have
soured on him after the negative attention he has drawn. He is
the most talented WR on the team and the one most capable of making
a big play so we’ll see how the situation plays out as the
Giants in games where the Giants need to pass more.
On the season, the Eagles have allowed 1,532 yards passing through
the air to rank 6th overall, but have allowed 10 passing TDs.
As a result of their famous blitz packages, they have sacked opposing
QBs an impressive 27 times in 8 games despite not having a standout
pass rusher. The Giants handled the equally impressive Steeler
pass rush two weeks ago and the pressure will be on the o-line
to keep Eli protected – as Eli’s only poor game came
in a game where the Cleveland Brown pass rush applied constant
pressure.
Running Game Thoughts: The reason the Giants did not need to pass
much last week (in addition to facing Brad Johnson and Brooke
Bollinger) was because their running game was so effective. Brandon
Jacobs finished with 117 yards and a TD on 17 carries while Derrick
Ward also found the end zone, gaining 63 yards on 12 carries.
Even Ahmad Bradshaw got a few carries averaging 4 yards per carry
on his 5 attempts. The often overlooked o-line for the Giants
is finally starting to gain some well-deserved recognition. Over
the years many different RBs have been successful due in large
part to the offensive scheme and the athletes up front getting
the job done.
The Eagles run defense was at one point ranked first in the NFL
but has slipped in recent weeks and are now ranked 7th in the
league. They allow 89 yards per game and have kept opposing RBs
out of the end zone, allowing only 3 rushing TDs on the year.
Opposing RBs have not fared well, but the Giants do have the top
rushing offense in the league.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 295 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Plaxico Burress: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Amani Toomer: 45 yds receiving
Steve Smith: 80 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kevin Boss: 35 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Derrick Ward: 35 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 25 yds rushing
Donovan McNabb/Reggie Brown/DeSean Jackson/Kevin
Curtis/LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook/Correll Bukhalter (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season:
WAS, PIT, SF
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 10.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.7/19.6/3.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.7
Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb quietly threw for 349 yards
last week and also added 2 TDs. He has had a very impressive season
despite having numerous receivers miss time due to injuries. Last
week, starting TE LJ Smith missed the game, but McNabb made due
with his backup Brent Celek (131 yards). Its unknown if Smith
will be ready this week. Rookie Desean Jackson has slowed won
his production since some starters have made their way back into
the line-up, but still remains a dangerous threat due to his speed.
The Giants’ pass rush led by Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanuka
has 30 sacks so far and have made life difficult for almost every
QB they have faced this season. CB Corey Webster who was buried
on the depth chart last year has emerged into a very reliable
starter and picked off tow Cowboy passes last week. The Giants
pass defense is ranked 2nd in the league giving up only 175 yards
and 1 TD per game. While it’s hard to bench McNabb, expectations
should be tempered a little.
Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook should be fully recovered
from his broken ribs heading into this important match up and
the Eagles will need him to be at his best, as he is the most
dangerous offensive player on the field for the Eagles. Bukhalter
has returned to being mostly an afterthought with Westbrook back,
but is very capable in his own right when needed. Westbrook will
be facing the Giants’ 6th ranked run defense this week.
The Giants have allowed only 683 yards rushing and 3 TDs on the
ground.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 275 yds passing 2 TDs / 15 yards rushing
Reggie Brown: 45 yds receiving
Kevin Curtis: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 65 yds receiving
LJ Smith: 35 yds receiving
Brian Westbrook: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Correll Buckhalter: 15 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
(Eakin)
Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Muhsin Muhammad
Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.4/17.0/3.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 26.8
Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Delhomme continues his consistent
solid play. He has the Panther’s primed for a playoff run
and the team has reason for optimism. Two starting offensive linemen,
RT Jeff Otah and C Ryan Kalil, are expected to return after a
month long absence. Now Delhomme should have greater protection
to improve upon his 17th rank in FPTs scored among QBs. He has
two WRs playing well in Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad. Smith
leads in scores while Muhammad leads in yards. They play well
together due to the two different styles they bring to the table.
Head Coach Jon Fox discussed the progress of Dwayne Jarrett and
how development will help the Panthers offense to become a force
down the stretch.
Al Davis is a Greek tragedy caricature at this point. The latest
drama in Raiderland is that he has determined the season a total
loss and is threatening to make significant cuts to save money.
One name purportedly is CB DeAngelo Hall, whom Oakland signed
for a 2nd and 5th round pick and has paid $8 million for at this
point. If they keep him around he stands to make #16 million.
There are some mixed feelings on how well Hall has played to this
point. He has some good numbers, but is not a good match for Oakland’s
press bump and run coverage. Hall is a player that plays well
in space and likes to jump routes rather than beat up WRs at the
line. CB Stanford Route is expected to take Hall’s place
should Mr. Davis act. Turmoil is never a good thing and with as
many as twelve players mentioned that may get cut it is likely
that the Raiders defense will not be as prepared as need be to
stop the potent Carolina attack. The big match up to watch will
be star CB Nnamdi Asomugha covering WR Steve Smith in a battle
between two of the elite players in the NFL. The Raiders usually
keep Asomugha one side rather than shadow a specific receiver
so they will not be lineup on every play.
Running Game Thoughts: The Carolina ground attack has averaged
116 yards per game and ranks 13th in the NFL. By expectations
that figure is a little low. Much like their WR core they have
a nice balance of speed and power with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan
Stewart. Stewart has had his moments, but has not been the dynamic
rookie some expected. Some of this is due to amount of carries.
Williams has played above expectations. Getting back the two starting
lineman may be the juice they need to make the leap to an elite
ground game. Currently Williams is ranked 20th (11.3) with as
far as RB FPTs scored and Stewart is 29th at (8.4). They should
have above average days coming off a bye, with two starters back
plowing holes, against an Oakland defense that is 4th worst in
the league in RB fantasy points allowed (27.1).
Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 240 yds passing/2 TD
Steve Smith: 105 yds receiving/1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 90 yds receiving/1 TD
DeAngelo Williams: 70 yds rushing/15 yds receiving/1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 65 yds rushing/1 TD
JaMarcus Russell/Johnnie Lee Higgins/Chaz
Schilens/Zach Miller
Justin Fargas/Michael Bush (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season:
Chiefs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season:
Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 3.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 4.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3/27.2/7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9
Passing Game Thoughts: Well, JaMarcus Russell completed six passes
for 31 yards against Atlanta last week. It was their worst offensive
performance since 1961. It’s not like they were playing
the ’85 Bears, either. Atlanta is an average defense at
best. The entire Raider organization is in so much turmoil I don’t
think they have a single offensive player worthy of starting even
in a flex position. The only player to seriously consider is TE
Zach Miller, who is the ranked 12th in the league. It appears
free agent acquisition Javon Walker is one of the players that
may get released. He may be their best hope for any passing production
at WR and this means that their two biggest free agent pick-ups
this year were complete busts. Rookie Chaz Schilens played well
a couple times enough to raise some eyebrows, but he was shutout
last week.
The Carolina defense is stout against the pass, ranking 3rd in
the league so all signs point towards another offensive implosion.
I’m curious as to what the Panthers even practice during
their defense versus scout team drills? How do you prepare a pass
defense against a team that only had six passes to work on defending?
Anyways, play Raider players at your own risk, but you won’t
see any on my rosters.
Running Game Thoughts: The one place Oakland has been able to
hang their hat on and have forged an identity is their run offense.
Even that part of their game was a complete failure last week.
Darren McFadden did not play and Justin Fargas managed only 23
yards. McFadden is listed as day-to-day, but has missed the last
two weeks. After last week, he may take his time returning. The
Panthers defense is 8th in RB points allowed and they are coming
off a bye week so again, even the Oakland ground attack looks
grim this week.
Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 115 yds passing/40 yards rushing/1 INT
Johnnie Lee Higgins: 40 yds
Chaz Schilens: 30 yds
Zach Miller: 35 yds
Justin Fargas: 65 yds rushing
Michael Bush: 35 yds rushing/1 TD
(Eakin)
Tyler Thigpen/DeWayne Bowe/Mark Bradley/Tony
Gonzalez
Jamaal Charles (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
Broncos
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.0/25.0/10.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 25.2
Passing Game Thoughts: Tyler Thigpen had himself a terrific first
half against the Buc’s 2nd ranked defense and put the Chiefs
in a position to win a big game, but they only scored 3 points
in the second half and could not finish them off. The Chiefs have
played two close games including an overtime loss, but have not
finished. Thigpen is playing well enough to temporarily postpone
the Brodie Croyle disaster discussions. He is not lighting up
scoreboards with TDs or interceptions, which is all that can be
expected from the first-year starter. Tony Gonzalez is a good
play this week as the Chargers do not cover TEs well and new QBs
tend to target their TEs a lot. Currently Gonzalez is 4th at his
position scoring 7.6 FPTs per game. Free Agent pickup Mark Bradley
had his best game of the year last week with 65 yards on 5 catches.
With the attention DeWayne Bowe gets, Kansas City could really
use a productive second downfield threat to free him up.
The Chargers needed to address their pass defense during the bye
week because it has been a major contributor to their struggles
this season. They started by firing defensive coordinator Ted
Cottrell and appointed Ron Rivera. Rivera played for the Bears
during their defensive dynasty and has served as an Eagles LB
coach and Bears DC in 2005 when the Bears finished 2nd in defense.
He runs the 4-3 and is an aggressive hardnosed guy. He’s
been a success in his first two coaching stints and might do well
toughening up a Charger defense that lost their identity this
year. Given the Chiefs good effort against the Bucs last week,
this game could remain close if they don’t make Thigpen
uncomfortable with some pressure.
Running Game Thoughts: Kolby Smith sprained his knee and has been
placed on IR for the remainder of the year. Larry Johnson has
given up playing tag with girls and graduated to spitting drinks
on them, which is apparently frowned upon by Missouri state law
and NFL personal conduct rules. Who knew?
All these circumstances lead the way for rookie Jamaal Charles
to be the bell cow for the Chiefs ground attack. It should turn
out to be a positive change, considering that he was their most
productive RB per carry throughout the entire year. He started
last week with 106 yards on 18 carries. Charles is a speed back
with a chance to make big plays and should make for an excellent
flex play or good RB#2 this week. The Chargers are only 19th against
the RB position in fantasy points allowed.
Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 170 yards/1 TD/1 INT
DeWayne Bowe: 70 yards
Tony Gonzalez: 65 yards/1 TD
Mark Bradley: 40 yards
Jamaal Charles: 90 yards/20 receiving/1 TD
Philip Rivers/Chris Chambers/Vincent Jackson/Antonio
Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season:
Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 28.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.4/19.6/7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 35.8
Passing Game Thoughts: Phillip Rivers has really stepped up this
year while a toe has slowed LT. The bye week comes as TE Antonio
Gates is finally recovered from his toe problems. He should return
to dominance in the second half of the year. Chris Chambers is
questionable, but expected to play on an ailing ankle. He will
probably rotate with Malcolm Floyd who has played well filling
in for him. Vincent Jackson has taken over as the go to WR and
is finally tapping in to all that potential people have been proclaiming
for the last couple years. Although the Chiefs have played well
against the pass, there are a lot of things that lead me to believe
the Chargers will have their way with them. They are rested, had
nearly two weeks to prepare, and are at home beginning the second
half of a season. They know they must start making their move
in if they are to be a playoff contender. Meanwhile, the Chiefs
have suffered two heartbreaking losses against physical teams
and may be a little disheveled.
Running Game Thoughts: LaDainian Tomlinson is beginning to get
better blocking and is starting to look like the top fantasy talent
that he is. Scouts say his cuts are much sharper and more explosive
than they had been for most of the season. He will be rested and
facing the worst rushing defense in the league at home. What better
way to start the second half season push towards the playoffs
then have a big day of L.T. 2008 being L.T. 2007.
Projections:
Phillip Rivers: 270 yards/2 TDs/1 Int
Chris Chambers: 60 yards
Vincent Jackson: 85 yards/1 TD
Antonio Gates: 80 yards/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 145 yards/35 receiving/2 TDs
(Eakin)
Shaun Hill/Isaac Bruce/Bryant Johnson/Arnaz
Battle
Frank Gore (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season:
49ers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season:
49ers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 28.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.4/29.4/2.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.6
Passing Game Thoughts: Shaun Hill went 15/23 with 1 TD and no
INTs in mop up duty after starter J.T. O’Sullivan was yanked
by new HC Mike Singletary. What I liked about Hill’s performance
was that he was getting the ball out much quicker than O’Sullivan.
If he can continue that, it will cut down on all the sacks and
fumbles the 49ers have had. If they can limit mistakes, the Niner’s
have the ability to be a tough opponent against most teams. The
highly publicized squabble between Singletary and TE Vernon Davis
has led to some uncertainty. The Niner’s signed TE Sean
Ryan so there is a good chance Davis will not see the field. Of
course, on the field or off the field the most common number next
to Davis’ name on the box sore remains zero. Both teams
have been pass happy in the early season so a shootout could be
in order. But, this can be a tricky league and often turn right
when you everyone is thinking left. I think this game may be more
a ground grinder than most expect.
Running Game Thoughts: At some point I have to believe they will
be a division between Singletary and OC Mike Martz. Their styles
completely clash. Singletary is a tough guy who wants a physical
style. I’m happy about this change being a Gore owner, because
I think they will try to give him a few more touches while breaking
in a new QB. The Cards will provide stiff opposition being a top
ten run defense so the Niner’s will need to be persistent
and stay in the game long enough to start developing some running
lanes. Arizona has some good physical young players with the likes
of Darnell Dockett, Geno Hayes, and Karlos Dansby. These three
help the Cards play the run well. Their explosive offense is the
other key because opponents are forced to abandon the run to keep
up. Gore had a good day at home in week one against the Cards
scoring 21 FPTs.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 220 yards/1 TD/1 INT
Isaac Bruce: 80 yards/1 TD
Bryant Johnson: 55 yards
Arnaz Battle: 35 yards
Jason Hill: 35 yards
Frank Gore: 90 yards/30 receiving/1 TD
Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve
Breaston
Tim Hightower
Similar passing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season:
Cardinals
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season:
Cardinals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: .5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 10.0
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.4/11.6/.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 32.7
Passing Game Thoughts: Kurt Warner is on fire and leads maybe
the best attack in the NFL. He has three legitimate studs to throw
to and is racking up 300-yard days as fast as Obama racked up
electoral votes. Warner is completing 70 percent of his passes,
has already thrown for nearly 2500 yards, and has 16 TDs to 6
INTs. They are poised to win their division for the first time
since 1975. The Niner’s however did manage to hold Warner
under 200 yards in San Francisco in week one. The 49ers are in
the middle of the pack against the pass, but have good CBs that
can slow down talented WRs if their front seven can get pressure
on Warner. A good match up to watch will be pass rush specialist
Justin Smith on LT Mike Gandy. The Niner’s need a strong
presence from Smith to create pressure as well as OLB Parys Haralson.
Running Game Thoughts: Boy, did I miss the boat on the Cardinals
giving starting duties to rookie Tim Hightower last week. We discussed
that Hightower was the more effective RB compared to Edgerrin
James for some time, but it was my belief that they wouldn’t
want to upset the team chemistry by replacing a veteran like Edgerrin
James. Give HC Ken Whisenhunt some credit for having the leadership
to pull that off with success. It remains to be seen how James
will react over time, but as long as Hightower produces there
will be little room for James to make too much of a stink. The
rookie answered the bell with 109 yards rushing on 22 carries
and a TD. The Cards will be nearly unstoppable on offense if they
succeed in establishing an elite rush attack. This is another
reason I can see this game being more of a grinder than people
expect. Arizona will want to continue to establish Hightower as
a real threat and they may find the ground easier than the air.
Remember, Whisenhunt comes from the Steelers where the breed running
and defense.
Projections:
Kurt Warner: 285 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yards/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 90 yards/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 55 yards
Tim Hightower: 105 yards/15 receiving/2 TDs
(Mack)
Kerry Collins / Brandon Jones / Justin
McCareins / Justin Gage / Bo Scaife
Chris Johnson / LenDale White (vs. Chicago)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season:
Tampa Bay
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season:
Tampa Bay
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 28
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11
Passing Game Thoughts: Here’s the bottom line regarding
the Tennessee Titan’s passing game: there is no passing
game. Kerry Collins has only three TDs through eight games, and
the receivers on this team are probably the worst group in the
NFL. Collins has done enough this year to win games for the Titans,
but the team’s offensive philosophy does not lend itself
to fantasy football.
Here’s a surprising stat: Chicago has one of the worst
pass defenses in the league. The Bears’ 30th ranked pass
defense has been throttled by such “stellar” QBs with
names like Orlovsky, Frerotte, Ryan, Orton and Greise. This quintet
has averaged 326 yards passing against the Chicago’s defense.
With names like that putting those kinds of numbers, there’s
hope after all for the Titans’ passing game to show a pulse.
Starting Collins or any of his receivers no named Bo Scaife, however,
remains a huge gamble.
Running Game Thoughts: The battle between Tennessee’s 3rd
ranked running game and Chicago’s 6th ranked run defense
will be the most entertaining aspect of this game. It’s
no secret that the Titans rely on their two-headed running attack
as the primary means of moving the ball down the field, but Chicago
has proven stout in defending run. It’s hard to put a finger
on why Tennessee is so effective running the ball. They have no
threat on the perimeter, an average QB and an O-line that includes
few recognizable names.
LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson have been the best RB
combination in the league. White is the bulldozer whose 10 rushing
TDs lead the league and Johnson is the speedster who breaks long
runs with amazing regularity. Their styles complement each other
beautifully, and the fact that both are ultra productive in a
RBBC setting speaks volumes to their ability. This game should
be a low scoring affair with both teams hammering the run from
the opening gun. Johnson will continue his trend of leading the
team in rushing yards, while White may be good for a short rushing
TD.
Projections:
Kerry Collins: 170 yards / 1 TD
Bo Scaife: 55 yards / 1 TD
Brandon Jones: 40 yards
Justin Gage: 35 yards
Justin McCareins: 30 yards
Chris Johnson: 75 yards
LenDale White: 55 yards / 1 TD
Rex Grossman / Rashied Davis / Devin Hester
/ Greg Olson
Matt Forte (vs. Tennessee)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season:
Minnesota
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season:
Minnesota
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 15
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13
Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Orton was quickly developing into
one of the biggest surprises in fantasy football before his ankle
injury last week. In steps Rex Grossman, who hopes to continue
the success of Orton. There were rumors in Chicago during preseason
that Grossman checked out mentally after Orton was named the starter
for the season, so it remains to be seen if any of that lingered
into the regular season.
The Bears’ 13th ranked passing attack will have a difficult
time finding success against the league’s top-ranked defense.
They put relentless pressure on the QB and their 13 interceptions
are tied for the most in the league. Grossman hasn’t played
any meaningful football in a while, and having to get reintroduced
to the speed of the NFL game against the NFL’s only remaining
unbeaten team is a tall order. Can Grossman ensure Chicago’s
offense doesn’t miss a beat in Orton’s absence? I
doubt it. Tread with caution when deciding to put anyone not named
Matt Forte in your line-up for Chicago.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week was the first time since the
season opener that Forte reached 100 yards in a game. I’m
afraid he starts another sub-century streak this week against
the Titans’ 10th ranked defense. Tennessee is probably the
most physical team in the league, and it starts with their defensive
line. They’re stout up front, with Albert Haynesworth and
Kyle Vanden Bosch the main components to a stellar unit.
Grossman’s presence may mean more attention is paid to
Forte and the running game. Forte is skilled enough, however,
that he should get production from the short passing game, which
is sure to be a staple in the game plan this week. But the Titans
will stack the box in an attempt to put pressure on the running
game and force Grossman to be a playmaker. If Chicago is to enjoy
any semblance of offensive productivity, Forte will have to be
at the center of it. His ability to put pressure on Tennessee’s
defense will open things up elsewhere, so I would expect Forte
to get every opportunity to succeed this week—although your
expectations should be tempered somewhat.
Projections:
Rex Grossman: 160 yard / 1 TD / 1 INT
Devin Hester: 55 yards
Rashied Davis: 45 yards
Greg Olson: 35 yards / 1 TD
Matt Forte: 60 yards rushing / 35 yards rec.
(Mack)
David Garrard / Matt Jones / Reggie Williams
/ Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Jones-Drew / Fred Taylor (vs. Detroit)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season:
Chicago
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season:
Chicago
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.5
Passing Game Thoughts: What on earth has happened to Jacksonville?
The passing offense that was so efficient and error-free last
year has morphed into a boring and inconsistent brand of football.
Garrard’s five interceptions so far in 2008 are two more
than he had all of last year. But what he’s not doing through
the air he’s making up for it with his legs. Garrard’s
184 rushing yards is only one yard less than the total from last
year. Surprisingly, the only bright spot in the Jag’s passing
game is WR Matt Jones, who was on the verge of being cut during
training camp. Jones has more than twice the number of receptions
that the next receiver; he’s been a nice bye week filler.
WR Mike Walker is probable after dealing with a minor knee sprain
and then an infection that hospitalized him for a few days. When
he's (rarely) healthy, he's proven he can play - posting over
100 yards against the Steelers. If he's healthy enough to go this
week, he could be a yardage monster against the woeful Lions.
Considering Jacksonville’s woes, there’s nothing
that going up against Detroit’s defense can’t solve.
The Lions rank along the bottom of every major statistical category
on both sides of the ball, so I look for Garrard to have a decent
game both through the air and on the ground. The Lions have yet
to face a multi-faceted QB, and with their inability to contain
even the most traditional of signal callers, it stands to reason
that Garrard could have his best statistical game.
Running Game Thoughts: The Jags lost the interior of their O-line
during the first game of the season and have struggled mightily
running the ball. Other than the Denver game several weeks ago,
Maurice Jones-Drew has been inconsistent and underwhelming and
Fred Taylor’s presence on your fantasy roster at this juncture
should be seriously scrutinized. Detroit has had serious issues
stopping the run this year, as their 31st ranked defense would
attest.
The major caveat in this matter is the Jags entered last week’s
game against a questionable Cincy defense, only to be held to
a measly 68 total yards. The offensive line troubles for Jacksonville
have weighed heavily on every aspect of the offense, but to be
held to 68 yards—including 23 from your QB—is not
a winning brand of football, fantasy or otherwise. You should
think long and hard about putting MJD or Taylor in your line-up
this week. If you have a suitable replacement, keep the Jags’
RBs on the pine until they start showing consistency.
Projections:
David Garrard: 185 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Matt Jones: 95 yards / 1 TD
Reggie Williams: 40 yards
Marcedes Lewis: 25 yards
Maurice Jones-Drew: 50 yards / 1 TD
Fred Taylor: 35 yards
Daunte’ Culpepper / Calvin Johnson /
Shaun McDonald / Mike Furrey
Rudi Johnson / Kevin Smith (vs. Jacksonville)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jags this season:
Cincinnati
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jags this season:
Cincinnati
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17
Passing Game Thoughts: As of this writing, it’s not official
that Culpepper will start, but it’s all but academic. Incumbent
Dan Orlovsky hasn’t practiced all week and Drew Stanton
has been named third string. What does that say about the confidence
in your offense that you start a guy in week 10 after being in
your system for less than a week? This doesn’t look good.
Culpepper has shown during his last two stops that he’s
a shell of his former self and therefore has little to no real
fantasy value.
Calvin Johnson, with all of his immense talent, seems to be underutilized
in Detroit’s system. He’s simply too talented to not
be used the way he should. The warning that’s always stated
about Culpepper is his supposed inability to read defenses. If
that’s the case, that may bode well for Johnson, who could
be the beneficiary of Culpepper zeroing in on his top receiving
threat. The Jags’ defense has shown that they are less than
average in stopping the pass. They’re ranked 21st in the
league and only the Bengals and Chiefs have fewer sacks. Culpepper
should make a few plays against the Jags, but he will also make
his share of mistakes in his first game in a year.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions’ running game is a sad
display of NFL football. They average 72 yards a game and look
completely dreadful every step of the way. Whether it’s
Rudi Johnson or rookie Kevin Smith, the running room is nonexistent
and the runner seems to always run into a wall of humanity the
instant he receives the handoff. Their offensive line is probably
the worst in the league, which certainly brings down the value
of all offensive weapons for Detroit.
But Jacksonville gave up 100 yards last week to Cedric Benson.
Cedric Benson? Ouch. There may be hope after all. It seems the
Jags’ defense hasn’t been the same since DT Marcus
Stroud left and with DT John Henderson iffy and LB Mike Peterson
in and out of head coach Jack Del Rio’s doghouse, this could
be the day where Detroit’s running game shows a little something.
Don’t hold your breath, though.
Projections:
Daunte Culpepper: 185 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Calvin Johnson: 85 yards / 1 TD
Shaun McDonald: 65 yards
Mike Furrey: 35 yards
Rudi Johnson: 65 yards / 1 TD
Kevin Smith: 40 yards
(Mack)
Aaron Rodgers / Donald Driver / Greg Jennings
/ Donald Lee
Ryan Grant
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season:
Carolina
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season:
Carolina
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16
Passing Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers has continued his efficient
play, and having thrown for more than 300 yards against the league’s
toughest defense last week in Tennessee, he has demonstrated that
he can be an every week starter in fantasy football. Donald Driver
and Greg Jennings comprise one of the top receiving duos in the
league and Rodgers utilizes both in a way that makes it tough
for a defense to key on either one.
Minnesota’s pass defense is ranked in the bottom third
of the league, but their 21 sacks put them in the top third. Green
Bay may look to hit Jennings deep on several occasions, but to
do so they will need to max protect to keep DE Jared Allen from
harassing Rodgers. Donald Lee is a good mid-range target, and
with LB EJ Henderson sidelined for the year Lee could be fairly
productive.
Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Grant’s yardage total over
the last three games has been a marked improvement over the previous
three. He’s shown the power and vision that made him one
of the best finds last year, and he’s gotten substantial
opportunities over the past two weeks with 51 carries. Grant seems
to be hitting his stride at the right time for his owners, and
they all hope that it’s déjà vu all over again
with his late season production.
But going on the road to Minnesota with expectations of success
on the ground is a tall order. Last I checked, DTs Pat and Kevin
Williams remain and both are the centerpieces of the Vikings’
2nd ranked run defense. Most teams simply ignore the ground game
altogether when playing Minnesota and instead attack their secondary,
but I think Green Bay will challenge their divisional rival with
a heavy dose of Grant early and often. Whether or not they’re
successful remains to be seen.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 235 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Greg Jennings: 95 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver: 55 yards
Donald Lee: 40 yards / 1 TD
Ryan Grant: 75 yards
Gus Frerotte / Bernard Berrian / Bobby Wade
/ Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor (vs. Green Bay)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season:
Tampa Bay
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season:
Tampa Bay
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 11
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.5
Passing Game Thoughts: Even though Frerotte finished last week’s
game with only 18 pass attempts, he tossed three TDs, including
a 55 yard catch and run to Bernard Berrian. It was an efficient
game plan that put the often erratic Frerotte in the best possible
position to succeed. The rapport he has developed with Berrian
is a thing of beauty. Berrian has scored in four consecutive games,
with 81 receiving yards his worst game.
Green Bay comes to town with their league leading 13 INTs, so
Frerotte has to be careful with the football. The Packers don’t
pressure the QB much, but the opportunistic secondary, led by
Charles Woodson, has pounced on QB mistakes this all season long.
As always, Berrian will be the focal point of the passing game,
so the battle between Berrian and Woodson will be key. Woodson
has battled a toe injury all year but hasn’t missed a game.
This could be a high-scoring game, which bodes well for another
nice game from Berrian and Frerotte.
Running Game Thoughts: After laying an egg on a Monday night
against New Orleans some time ago, Adrian Peterson has run for
three consecutive 100 yard games with three total TDs. That’s
the production his owners were expecting when they used a top
2 or 3 draft pick on him. The Vikings’ offensive line remains
intact and one of the best in the league, and that only solidifies
AP that much more as perhaps the most dangerous RB in fantasy
football.
Green Bay’s 27th ranked run defense didn’t play so
well against Tennessee’s LenDale White and Chris Johnson,
so the fact that they now get to face Minnesota’s run game
will be a true litmus test. Obviously the offense will go through
Peterson, with the hope that the attention paid to Berrian and
Co. on the outside will create creases in the running game. That’s
been the M.O. so far this season and it’s worked quite well,
especially since Frerotte took over.
Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 265 yards / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Bernard Berrian: 110 yards / 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 65 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe: 45 yards / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 95 yards / 1 TD
Chester Taylor: 25 yards
(Mack)
Peyton Manning / Reggie Wayne / Marvin
Harrison / Anthony Gonzalez / Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai / Dominic Rhodes
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
New York Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
New York Giants
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 10
Passing Game Thoughts: What is going on in Indy? It seems they’re
becoming average right before our eyes. The offense that we’ve
come to know and love and expect great things from has disappointed
mightily so far. Peyton Manning’s early season knee issues
aside, the play in the passing game is not the result of physical
limitations. Manning’s decision-making has been dreadful
at times this year and that’s led to a drop in value for
seemingly every offensive fantasy player on the Colts. Who would’ve
thought that coming into the season?
And now they travel to Pittsburgh to take on one of the most
aggressive defenses in the league. That’s not good if you’re
counting on Peyton and his crew to delivery at this most crucial
time of the fantasy season. The Steelers will give Manning all
kinds of creative looks on defense with the hope of confusing
the QB. And with the issues on the O-line that have surfaced for
Indy this year, Manning is sure to see his share of blitzes. This
is a tough one to call. Most fantasy owners are in must-win mode
and the thought of benching a player on the Colts is almost sacrilegious.
But at this point, it’s about production and Indy’s
offense simply hasn’t been so in quite some time. If you
absolutely have to, start your Colts but don’t be shocked
if the outcome is less than what you expected.
Running Game Thoughts: The Colts are the worst running team in
the NFL. Those words should jump off your computer screen. Joseph
Addai has been his usual fragile self, and even when he has been
healthy he’s been underwhelming. The offensive line has
under performed and, quite frankly, it seems teams don’t
feat the downfield throws any longer. Defenders have crowded the
line of scrimmage and clogged running lanes, making running the
ball a difficult task.
Things aren’t going to get any better this week against
Pittsburgh. The Steelers will create havoc at the point of attack
and render the Colts’ ground game useless. Addai and Dominic
Rhodes could see production in the passing game with short throws
and screen passes, but expecting any success the traditional way
from Indy’s RBs is an exercise in futility.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Reggie Wayne: 65 yards
Marvin Harrison: 45 yards
Dallas Clark: 55 yards / 1 TD
Joseph Addai: 45 yards
Dominic Rhodes: 30 yards
Byron Leftwich / Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes
/ Nate Washington
Mewlede Moore
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season:
Chicago
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season:
Chicago
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21
Passing Game Thoughts: As of this writing, starting QB Ben Roethlisberger’s
status is uncertain but based on the news early in the week, it
looks like he may sit this game out. If that’s the case,
Leftwich showed why it’s important to have an experienced
back-up QB. Who knows if he can perform similarly if the opponent
prepares for him, but the way Indy’s pass defense has played,
either Leftwich or Big Ben may have their hands full against the
league’s 3rd ranked pass defense.
Hines Ward has been the team’s most consistent receiver
and Nate Washington seems to get deep every week, but Santonio
Holmes has struggled big time. The Steelers probably won’t
utilize the pass much in this game anyway, considering the way
Indy has been run on this year. But when they do, expect a lot
of passes of the dink and dunk variety with not many plays challenging
Indy down field.
Running Game Thoughts: Willie Parker looked good during his return
to the line-up last week. The burst, the quickness, the speed—it
was all on display. Now Indy’s undersized defense comes
to town in what will surely be Pittsburgh’s statement game.
I’d be surprised if Pittsburgh throws the ball more than
25 times. They will attempt to establish the run early and often,
so the patient owners who hung on to Parker and the smart owners
who traded for him will be richly rewarded this week.
Mewelde Moore may also have an opportunity to shine in this game.
He replaced an injured Parker for a handful of games and the offense
didn’t miss a beat. Pittsburgh’s game plan will be
to shorten the game with a heavy dose of running plays in an attempt
to keep Peyton on the sideline. So start your Steelers with supreme
confidence.
Projections:
Byron Leftwich: 180 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward: 75 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 50 yards
Nate Washington: 35 yards
Willie Parker: 150 yards / 1 TD
Mewelde Moore: 25 yards
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