Wk 1 9/5/08
WAS @ NYG | NYJ
@ MIA | SEA @ BUF | KC @ NE
| STL @ PHI | ARI @ SF | CAR
@ SD | CHI @ IND
DET @ ATL | DEN @ OAK | TB
@ NO | CIN @ BAL | HOU @ PIT
| DAL @ CLE | MIN @ GB
| JAX @ TEN
Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle
El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. NY)
Passing Game Thoughts: Jason
Campbell began to look like an NFL quarterback, throwing for 563
yards and five TDs in a two week stretch before succumbing to
injury. Unfortunately he’ll be learning his third new offensive
system in his short NFL career, this time it is Jim Zorn’s
variation of the west coast offense. The Redskins brought in rookie
pass catchers Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, and Fred Davis, but
injuries have derailed the two wide receivers from seeing the
field much in the pre-season and Davis remains behind Chris Cooley
on the depth chart. Santana Moss’ speed and quickness should
make him a dangerous part of the new offensive scheme.
The Giants ranked 11th in passing yards allowed last season and
had a league-leading 53 sacks. However, the Giants pass rush,
which was largely responsible for their Super Bowl run, was devastated
with the retirement of Michael Strahan and the injury to Osi Umenyiora.
Jason Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka should still be a pretty formidable
duo, but the loss of depth is obvious. Aaron Ross had a fine rookie
season teamed up with veteran Sam Madison at the corners and new
safety Kenny Phillips from the University of Miami has looked
very good this off-season.
Running Game Thoughts: Clinton
Portis led the NFL in carries last season and should once again
be the workhorse of the Redskins’ offense. Given the new
scheme it is possible that Portis’ carries go down, but
that loss should be made up with an increase in targets in the
passing game. Portis is one of the “safest” running
backs in fantasy football since he is a true feature back and
the Redskins have one of the top run-blocking offensive lines
in the NFL. The team has a fine backup to Portis in Ladell Betts.
New York finished 2007 as the 8th ranked rushing defense and only
allowed opposing runners to score 12 TDs on the season. Antonio
Pierce is there to take down any runners who get by the fine young
run stoppers on the interior of the Giants o-line, Fred Robbins
and Barry Coefield. This should be a tough unit for opposing running
backs once again in 2008.
Projections:
Jason Campbell: 240 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT / 30 yards rushing
Santana Moss: 115 yds receiving, 1 TD
Antwaan Randle El: 45 yds receiving
Chris Cooley: 50 yds receiving
Clinton Portis: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving
Eli Manning/Plaxico Burris/Amani Toomer/Kevin
Boss
Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw (vs. WAS)
Passing Game Thoughts: Will
Eli Manning be the inconsistent, inaccurate passer that defined
him throughout most of his young career or did the light really
go on for him during his miraculous Super Bowl run? The answer
to that question will go a long way in determining how effective
the Giants passing game will be in 2008. Even with Jeremy Shockey
shipped out there may not be a deeper bunch of pass catchers than
Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, Sinorice
Moss and Mario Manningham in the NFL (at least according to college
scouts from Michigan). My guess is that we will see a much more
confident and hence consistent Eli Manning going forward. Look
for Burress to be on the other end of a good majority of Manning’s
passes and look for Steve Smith, and not Kevin Boss, to take a
lot of Shockey’s targets in 2008.
As most know, Washington tragically lost safety Sean Taylor to
a violent crime last season and it will be a while before he can
be adequately replaced. The pass defense was very average (16th
in passing yards allowed) last year despite having talents like
Carlos Rodgers, Fred Smoot, Shawn Springs and LaRon Landry in
the secondary. The acquisition of pass rusher Jason Taylor (who
is expected to miss Week 1) should help in 2008.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants
offensive line and system is tremendously underrated as proven
by the seamless transition they made after Tiki Barber left for
greener pastures. Bruising Brandon Jacobs was injured in Week
1 and veteran Derrick Ward stepped in and played like a pro-bowler.
After Ward broke his leg, seventh round draft choice Ahmad Bradshaw
came on strong in the playoff run. In fact Bradshaw was the more
effective runner and garnered many of the important second half
carries. Jacobs and Bradshaw should both see time in 2008 with
Ward waiting to step in if either go down again.
Washington was very quietly an extremely tough run defense in
2007, finishing 4th in yards allowed. An unheralded line-backing
corp. featuring veteran London Fletcher, Marcus Washington and
Rocky McIntosh make it very difficult for opposing runners to
find much room. However, the unit struggled during the pre-season
so 2008 may be very different from 2007 unless they step it up
under the brighter lights of the regular season.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Plaxico Burris: 120 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Amani Toomer: 30 yds receiving
Kevin Boss: 45 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Derrick Ward: 30 yds rushing/10 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 55 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Brett Favre/Laveranues Coles/Jericho Cotchery/Dustin
Keller
Thomas Jones/Leon Washington (vs. MIA)
Passing Game Thoughts: Brett
Favre who was last seen in Miami getting dumped by Mary much to
the dismay of her brother Warren, returns to make his much anticipated
Jets debut at Dolphins Stadium. Favre has looked relatively sharp
in the preseason and while he may not have a total grasp of the
entire Jets playbook, his many years in the league should allow
him to take what the Miami defense gives him. Favre should allow
Coles and Cotchery to finally reach their full potential now that
they have a QB that will allow them to stretch the field on occasion.
Both WRs are strong on the ball, fearless, and have surprising
run after the catch ability. Dustin Keller, a rookie TE, has been
very impressive this preseason but rookie TEs often struggle,
so don’t expect miracles. I wouldn’t be surprised
if the oft-forgotten Chris Baker becomes one of Favre’s
favorite red zone targets in the Bubba Franks mold (who is now
also a Jet, but no longer a legit weapon).
The Dolphins finished 2007 as the fourth-best pass defense based
on passing yards allowed, however that stat could be viewed as
deceiving when one sees that the team finished dead last in rushing
yards allowed. Teams simply didn’t need to pass on Miami,
since they could run at will against them. The stat is further
enhanced because teams didn’t have to worry about the Miami
offense putting up big points. They have some relatively young,
but decent players in the secondary in Will Allen and Jason Allen,
but after shipping off their best defensive lineman in veteran
Jason Taylor, the Phins should not be able to garner much of a
pass rush against the improved Jets o-line which in turn will
expose the Miami secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: The Jets
signed Pro Bowl G Alan Faneca and RT Damien Woody in order to
shore up last season’s suspect offensive line. They also
added veteran pile driver Tony Richardson at fullback. It only
stands to reason that the Jets should be more successful running
the ball in 2008. Thomas Jones a hard nosed, if not uber talented,
back should benefit from the upgrades. He should get off to a
great start against Miami, a team he rushed for 185 yards against
last season. His only rushing TD also came against them. Leon
Washington took a step up in 2008 and could be a serious weapon
if his role expands further. Owners in a pinch could do worse
by starting him this week.
As mentioned earlier, the Miami defense was ranked dead last against
the run in 2007 and very little was done to improve the unit.
Zach Thomas was released and while he was no longer the dominant
force he once was, he was probably their best run stopper last
season when healthy. Bill Parcells did bring in wide body Jason
Ferguson who played under him in Dallas and New York. While he
should help clog up some space he has seen his better days. Channing
Crowder has talent, but he cannot be expected to do it all alone.
Expect a long day for the defense on Sunday.
Projections:
Brett Favre: 240 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jericho Cothery: 75 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 110 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Leon Washington: 45 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Chad Pennington/Derek Hagan/Ted Ginn, Jr./Anthony Fasano
Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown (vs. NY)
Passing Game Thoughts: As if
Brett Favre didn’t add enough intrigue to this match-up,
former Jet QB Chad Pennington, who was unceremoniously dumped
by the Jets in favor of No. 4, will be leading the Dolphins passing
attack. Pennington is not known for his arm strength, instead
he relies on his intelligence and incredible accuracy to beat
his opponent. He’ll be out to show the Jets they made a
mistake, but unfortunately for him he will be throwing to an inexperienced
and perhaps unreliable receiving corp. Derek Hagan enters his
fourth season and has been turning heads in camp, but he has yet
to put together many catches in his NFL career. He also was demoted
to second team reps in practice in favor of Greg Camarillo. We’ll
see if it’s a statement of what will happen in the game.
Ginn showed some flashes last season and Pennington should benefit
from his after the catch ability. This could be a productive relationship
along the lines of Pennington to Moss back in his early days in
New York. Parcell’s brought over his former Dallas tight
end Anthony Fasano in a pre-draft trade and the big TE should
be able to get open and exploit some match-ups.
Much like Miami, the Jets pass defense was respectable statistically
but it was more a reflection of teams being able to run at will
against them. CB Darrell Reavis had a very nice rookie season,
but whether it was Andre Dyson, Justin Miller, David Barret or
Hank Poteat, the opposite corner was often exposed. This season
rookie Dwight Lowery is expected to start over Miller and Barret.
The secondary is rounded out by safety Kerry Rhodes who has developed
into a dangerous playmaker. Newcomers Calvin Pace and Vernon Gholston
are expected to help create pressure on opposing QBs something
the Jets often struggled to achieve last season.
Running Game Thoughts: In a
move which surprised some, 31-year-old, Ricky Williams was named
as the starter at the running back position for Miami. The Rasta
was the star of OTAs and training camp and could be in for a nice
year. Last season’s starter Ronnie Brown will be eased in
slowly after having surgery to repair a torn ACL suffered during
last season. Expect Brown to come along in the season’s
second half giving the Dolphins a real nice one-two punch in the
backfield, but he may be a non-factor early so plan accordingly.
The Miami o-line was much maligned last preseason but did a nice
job of creating holes for Ronnie Brown and then Jesse Chatman
after Brown went down. Having a former o-line coach – head
coach Tony Sparano - running the show should only help further
their development
The Jets had tremendous problems stopping opposing runners last
season, finishing 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
The team has added 360 lb. Kris Jenkins and converted him to nose
tackle with good results so far this preseason. David Harris emerged
as a tackling machine at inside LB during his rookie year, but
received little help. The defense may be improved on paper, but
until the unit proves otherwise, fantasy owners should look to
start their RBs when facing the Jets defense.
Projections:
Chad Pennington: 185 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Derek Hagan: 50 yds receiving
Ted Ginn, Jr.: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Anthony Fasano: 45 yds receiving
Ricky Williams: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 15 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 35 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving
Matt Hasselbeck/Nate Burleson/Courtney
Taylor/John Carlson
Julius Jones/Maurice Morris (vs. BUF)
Passing Game Thoughts: In the
past, the Seattle passing game has been quite effective under
Mike Holgrem’s playbook and Matt Hasselbeck’s quick
decision making but it is somewhat clouded heading into 2008 due
to a plethora of injuries. Last year’s leading pass catcher
Bobby Engram is expected to miss the opener and likely more, Deion
Branch will start the year rehabbing his knee, youngster Ben Obomanu
is out for the year, and even Hasselbeck has been limited by a
back injury throughout training camp. Nate Burleson managed to
grab 9 touchdown passes in 2007, but hasn’t been very consistent
in his young career. He will be asked to be Seattle’s #
1 WR at least in the early going. Courtney Taylor will line-up
opposite Burleson and while he has talent, he lacks experience.
Rookie TE John Carlson will replace the departed Marcus Pollard,
but expecting much from a rookie tight end is generally not advisable.
Buffalo’s defense is young and talented, and should improve
as they gain experience. The passing defense was ranked 29th in
yardage allowed, but added rookie CB Leodis McKelvin to team up
with youngsters Terrence McGee and Donte Whitner in the secondary.
Aaron Schoebel terrorized o-linemen last season and the Bills
will certainly need him to do the same in 2008 if they hope to
improve their pass defense.
Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks
spent a lot of money bringing in free agent running backs Julius
Jones and TJ Duckett, but incumbent Maurice Morris will get the
starting gig. Morris is shifty and has nice hands out of the backfield,
but he runs with little power and is a suspect pass blocker. Jones
and Duckett have been career underachievers to date, but they
should see some time on game days. Perhaps the change of scenery
will do them good. Rookie Justin Forsett tore it up in preseason,
but weighing less than 185 pounds stacks the deck against him
being a major contributor in the running game.
The Bills were bad against the run statistically last season (giving
up 124 yards a game), but brought in wide body Marcus Stroud from
Jacksonville to help stop the run and the team will get Paul Posluszy
back at linebacker. The Bills are a dark horse defense this year
and should be much improved statistically when all is said and
done.
Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 205 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 INT
Nate Burleson: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Courtney Taylor: 45 yds receiving
John Carlson: 25 yds receiving
Julius Jones: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD
Maurice Morris: 65 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/James Hardy/Robert Royal
Marshawn Lynch (vs. SEA)
Passing Game Thoughts: Trent
Edwards looked very poised in 2007, however Buffalo was forced
to run a conservative offense when the rookie quarterback was
under center. Edwards’ expected development should open
up the playbook a little, but Buffalo is still expected to be
a team built on establishing the run and playing good defense.
Lee Evans is a weapon when allowed to go deep, but he disappears
at times and may have trouble in his match up with Marcus Trufant.
Rookie wide out James Hardy is a big target and should help in
the red-zone but he needs to use his size effectively to give
Edwards the second target Buffalo has lacked for years. Robert
Royal is a dependable tight end, but is not targeted often and
has little value in fantasy circles. Of some concern should be
standout LT Jason Peters’ holdout. Without Peters’
the mediocre Bills offensive line falls to below average.
Seattle’s pass defense was a middle of the road unit last
season from a yardage standpoint but gave up the fewest passing
touchdowns in the league (15). The opportunistic and talented
secondary grabbed 20 interceptions (4th in the NFL) and the attacking
front seven managed the fourth most sacks in the NFL (45). The
Buffalo passing game could be in some trouble in this match up
if they can’t pass protect.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch’s rookie year was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson’s
eye-popping big games, but Lynch managed to turn in a pretty nice
rookie campaign himself. Lynch is a hard, inside runner with the
speed to get outside. He should be the player teams worry about
when facing the Bills. Backup Fred Jackson performed well in Lynch’s
absence, but he shouldn’t see much time on the field when
Lynch is healthy. Peterson’s absence should have more of
an impact on pass blocking than run blocking but it still cannot
help to lose a player of his caliber.
The Seahawks were pretty effective against the run last season
(12th in yards allowed), but did allow 16 rushing scores. They
have one of the best young line backing corps. in the league with
Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Leroy Hill and should continue
to be a tough match up for most running backs, but not necessarily
one where you need to bench a runner facing them.
Projections:
Trent Edwards: 165 yds passing, 2 INT
Lee Evans: 70 yds receiving
James Hardy: 35 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 15 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 125 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving
Brodie Croyle/Dwayne Bowe/Devard Darling/Tony
Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. NE)
Passing Game Thoughts: Brodie
Croyle wasn’t impressive in his first season as a starting
quarterback, tossing only 6 TDs in 9 games (6 starts), but most
young quarterbacks struggle early. Fans and fantasy footballers
will need to see how he progresses in 2008 in order to determine
if he’ll have a future in the NFL. However, his thin frame
and limited mobility may not bode well for him behind what is
still a substandard offensive line. Rookie wide receiver Dwayne
Bowe emerged as a real bright spot in an otherwise dismal 2007
for the Chiefs’ offense. He showed excellent hands and tremendous
after the catch ability. Tony Gonzalez was his usual dependable
self and at 32 should be able to put up another pro-bowl level
campaign. Former Raven Devard Darling has nice deep speed and
will help stretch the field for the underneath game.
New England’s defense has looked old and slow so far this
preseason, but it could be a case where Bellicheck has yet to
unleash his genius. We’ll find out if the players are merely
going through the motions or they are truly old and slow. The
Pats ranked 6th in passing yards allowed last off-season, but
did give up 23 TDs in the air. They were vulnerable before losing
their best cornerback in Assante Samuel. Ellis Hobbs and Brandon
Meriweather are expected to start and have been underachievers
thus far. Rodney Harrison is another year older and not the same
feared player he once was. With all that said, I wouldn’t
bet against a Bellicheck defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Larry
Johnson struggled early, came on a little, and then suffered a
freakish ankle injury. He has made a full recovery, but has he
fully recovered from his record-breaking number of carries in
2006? Time will tell, but I’d expect somewhere in between
his monster 2006 stats and his mediocre 2007 totals. Rookie G/T
Brandon Albert may help the line, but at best the unit should
still be below average.
The Patriots were 10th in rushing yards allowed and only allowed
7 TDs to opposing running backs last season. Of course Mike Vrabel
and Teddy Bruschi are another year older and presumably slower.
The line backing unit does boast Adalius Thomas and rookie Jerod
Mayo and with Vince Wilfork still eating up the middle of the
defensive line, they are not exactly devoid of talent. Rushing
yards and TDs could still be tough to come by.
Projections:
Brodie Croyle: 195 yds passing, 1 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Devard Darling: 40 yds receiving
Tony Gonzalez: 45 yds receiving
Larry Johnson: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving
Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Jabar
Gaffney/Benjamin Watson
Laurence Maroney/Lamont Jordan (vs. KC)
Passing Game Thoughts: There
isn’t much I can say about the New England passing game
in 2007 that anyone interested enough in fantasy football to be
reading this doesn’t already know. Heading into 2008 most
would expect Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, et. al. to come
back down to earth a little. Still, the passing game should be
scary good despite some o-line injuries and Wes Welker’s
secret foot ailment which caused him to spend some time on the
PUP list during training camp. Bear in mind that Welker is also
battling a rib injury he suffered in the preseason and Tom Brady
had very little practice time due to a foot injury. Taking all
of that into consideration, put all Pats in your starting line-up…immediately.
Kansas City’s pass defense was very respectable, allowing
only 17 touchdowns through the air and finishing 5th in passing
yardage allowed. However two key components are missing: the pass
rushing sills of Jared Allen and the veteran leadership of Ty
Law. Tamba Hali should still get to the passer, but without Allen
on the other side it will not be as easy. The aging Patrick Surtain
and inexperienced Brandon Flowers are not an imposing duo at cornerback,
so the unit may decline from last season.
Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots
often abandoned the running game due to the fact that their passing
game was usually clicking on all cylinders. Laurence Maroney is
a very talented runner – especially once he started listening
to the coaching staff and hitting his holes instead of dancing.
Last year he was often invisible due to not being used in the
passing game much. Lamont Jordan led the team in pre-season rushing
yards and could take over the role Sammy Morris occupied last
season. Veteran Kevin Faulk sees the field often on passing downs
but is out week one on suspension. No one could really claim to
know how much the Pats will choose to run or how the carries will
break down, but my thoughts are that they will try and be a little
more balanced with their run pass selection than they were in
2007.
Part of the reason the Chiefs didn’t give up many yards
through the air was because teams were getting chunks of yardage
on the ground. Rookie DT Glen Dorsey and veteran LB Donnie Edwards
should help change that a little, but one would be foolish to
think the Chiefs are going to be stout against the run over-night.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 325 yds passing/ 3 TDs
Randy Moss: 110 yds receiving, 2TDs
Wes Welker: 85 yds receiving
Jabar Gafney: 45 yards receiving, 1 TD
Benjamin Watson: 35 yds receiving
Laurence Maroney: 85 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Lamont Jordan: 45 yards rushing, 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Marc Bulger/Tory Holt/Drew Bennett/Randy
McMichael
Stephen Jackson (vs. PHI)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams
o-line suffered so many injuries last season, rumor had it that
at one point the coaching staff considered throwing a jersey on
one of the team’s blocking sleds and sending it on the field.
Predictably quarterback Marc Bulger didn’t make it through
the season after being pounded game after game, but returns in
2008 hoping to show to the form that made him a consistent second
tier fantasy quarterback. Al Saunders, the Rams new offensive
coordinator, has a long history of success at the NFL level. Trent
Green who led some of those offenses while with the Chiefs re-joins
the Rams as Bulger’s backup. Perennial Pro-Bowler Tory Holt,
the once overrated and now under-rated Drew Bennett, and Randy
McMichael make for a respectable corps of pass catchers.
The Eagles weren’t too tough against the pass lat season
– finishing 18th in passing yards allowed – but added
big play corner back Assante Samuel through free agency. Samuel
will join Sheldon Brown in the starting secondary which will allow
Lito Sheppard to move into a nickel back role with the team. If
Trent Cole can deliver a consistent pass rush, the unit should
be much improved in 2008.
Running Game Thoughts: Due to
the aforementioned o-line issues and an injury of his own, Steven
Jackson was a disappointment in 2007. His camp holdout this off-season
may raise a red flag or two for the upcoming season, but right
now he seems healthy and happy – especially since the team
has promised to work out a new deal for him – and could
be poised to return to his place as one of the top running backs
in the game. The Saunders system has produced its share of top
running backs including Priest Holmes and Clinton Portis. The
line has been relatively healthy so far. If things break right
Jackson could be in for a very big season.
The Eagles were effective against the run last season but could
regress from their top ten finish in 2007 if the very young linebacker
corp. lead by middle linebacker Stewart Bradley and weak-side
linebacker Omar Gaither doesn’t step up after Takeo Spikes
was let go. Hard hitting safety Brian Dawkins will be there in
support, but the Eagles will be in trouble if he is the one making
most of the tackles.
Projections:
Marc Bulger: 285 yds passing, 2 TDs/2 INTs
Tory Holt: 110 yds receiving, 1 TD
Drew Bennett: 45 yds receiving
Randy McMichael: 60 yds receiving
Stephen Jackson: 95 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Donovan McNabb/Reggie Brown/Hank Baskett/DeSean
Jackson/LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook (vs. STL)
Passing Game Thoughts: McNabb
struggled early last season, but as a quarterback that relies
on his mobility and coming off an ACL tear it was to be expected.
This is likely a make or break year for McNabb in Philly with
Kevin Kolb waiting in the wings and I’d expect the veteran
to step up to the challenge. Reggie Brown has sat out most of
the pre-season with a hamstring injury, but is expected back for
the game. Kevin Curtis will miss the early season with a sports
hernia. Hank Basket is expected to start in his place, but rookie
DeSean Jackson, who should line up in the slot, had a nice exhibition
season and could be the main beneficiary of the injuries to the
starting wide-outs.
The Rams defense was very bad last season, finishing 21st against
the pass. Their secondary is young and still suspect, but perhaps
the addition of rookie Chris Long will help change things a little.
Long and veteran Leonard Little make a pretty formidable set of
bookend pass rushers and if they manage to get some serious pressure
the rest of the defense will benefit.
Running Game Thoughts: Brian
Westbrook had his best season yet in 2007 and at 29 he still has
at least another year to showcase his impressive skills. There
isn’t a more dangerous threat out of the backfield in the
NFL and his low center of gravity, balance, and surprising power
allow him to be more successful than many think running inside.
Westbrook even managed to stay on the field in most goal-line
situations. Lorenzo Booker – a virtual Westbrook clone in
stature and style – was brought in from Miami to help incumbent
Correll Buckhalter backup Westbrook. Second-year running back
Tony Hunt was moved to full back and may get a few short yardage
carries and receptions from time to time in the Eagle offense.
The Rams were equally bad against the run as they were against
the pass – finishing 20th in the NFL in rushing yardage
allowed. Adam Carriker gets to move back inside with the addition
of Chris Long at defensive end. Carriker is better suited at that
spot and his presence in the middle should help the Rams play
better against the run.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 215 yds passing, 2 TDs / 25 yards rushing, 1 TD
Reggie Brown: 35 yds receiving
Hank Baskett: 25 yds receiving
DeSean Jackson: 55 yds receiving
LJ Smith: 35 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Kurt Warner/Edgerrin James/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan
Boldin
Leonard Pope/Steve Breaston (vs. SF)
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt
Leinart failed to live up to his draft position and salary this
preseason so Coach Ken Whisenhunt has deferred to Kurt Warner
as the starting quarterback. Warner is a top 15 fantasy QB and
should be a better option for the Cardinals. In fact, Warner put
up 484 yards in a week 12 shootout against the 49ers. San Francisco
was the 22nd ranked passing defense in 2007, giving up 228 yds/game.
I don’t expect Warner to enjoy the same success this year
as the 49ers improved their pass rush. The return of a healthy
Manny Lawson and the addition of Justin Smith should help create
more pressure on Warner They still have solid corner backs in
Nate Clements and Walt Harris and the addition of Michael Lewis
from Philly upgrades their safety position. The defense should
create a couple turnovers but not enough to stop Arizona entirely.
Expect the Cardinals to control the time of possession and the
talented passing offense to sustain a few solid scoring drives.
Running Game Thoughts: The story
line of Edgerrin James returning to his glory days is becoming
played out. He won’t ever be that guy he was for the Colts.
Rookie Tim Hightower has been an impressively physical running
back this preseason and there is speculation he will steal some
short yardage opportunities from James. Whisenhunt, a former Steeler’s
offensive coordinator, has the label of a run first coach. They
will try establishing the running game early. The 49ers ranked
18th vs. the run, giving up 108 yds per game last season despite
rookie defensive player of the year, Patrick Willis, clogging
up the middle. The weakness of this defense is the defensive line.
Justin Smith is an upgrade for the pass rush but they are a far
from dominant run-stopping line. Their best hope is the four linebackers
creating havoc. They may be successful early but the weak and
inexperienced offense will not be able to keep them rested. Expect
some explosive pass plays to open up the defense and the Cardinals
to grind out some rushing yards against a fatigued front that
cannot afford to put 8 in the box in the second half. Yes, the
inexperienced early season offense will be the 49er defense’s
worst enemy.
Projections:
Kurt Warner: 295 yds passing/2 TD/2 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 95 yds receiving/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 85 yds receiving/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 55 yds receiving
Leonard Pope: 45 yds receiving
Edgerrin James: 85 yds rushing/25 yds receiving/ 1 rush TD
J.T. O’Sullivan/Isaac Bruce/Arnaz
Battle/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis/Bryant Johnson
Frank Gore/ (vs. ATL)
Passing Game Thoughts: The
49ers bring in Mike Martz to improve their woeful offense from
a year ago. Martz favors a spread passing attack that can be explosive
with the right personnel. Starting QB J.T. O’Sullivan came
with Martz from Detroit so he is more familiar with the offense
than Alex Smith. He is a savvy QB with average arm strength and
foot speed, but is a first-time starter who will have to grow
up fast. Fortunately he hasn’t been sitting on the bench
throughout his pro career. He was the World Bowl MVP for the now-defunct
NFL Europe.
Arizona was not a very good pass defense last season (26th) and
addressed the situation by moving Antrel Rolle from corner to
free safety and drafting CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie. He is
not a starter yet but should get action in the nickel, especially
since Rolle is questionable with a high ankle sprain. This is
likely where Martz will attack the Cardinal defense. He will Move
the Athletic TE Vernon Davis around to exploit match-up problems.
Arnaz Battle will also mix in that role and look to test the rookie
when on the field. Isaac Bruce is a veteran player with experience
in the system and will be the one relied on to keep the chains
moving. Bryant Johnson and Josh Morgan will also rotate in the
WR corps and be relied on for explosive plays.
The critical factor in the 49ers success will be pass protection.
The Cardinals have a talented Defensive front with Antonio Smith,
Darnell Dockett, Brian Robinson, and rookie Calais Campbell. They
should be able to create a lot of pressure on O’Sullivan
against a Martz system that is infamous for getting the QB beat
up. The best hope for countering the pressure will be quick passing,
screens, and dump offs to Frank Gore. Martz does a good job of
utilizing his RBs in the passing game. By sheer number of attempts
they will get some passing yards, but inexperience will cost them
early on in the season. I expect turnovers will do in the 49ers
in this opener.
Running Game Thoughts: The rushing
totals for Gore and crew will need to maintain production with
fewer attempts. They will spread the field out and force opposing
defenses in nickel packages, creating greater rushing lanes for
Gore explosive ability. It worked in the past for Martz with Marshall
Faulk and Kevin Jones so there is optimism that Gore will be able
to continue those trends. The Cardinal front seven has talent
with Karlos Dansby and Geno Hayes manning the middle in the 3/4
defense. Gabe Watson and Alan Branch are large and physical young
players that will rotate at nose tackle to help free up Dansby’s
pro bowl level talent to make plays. Arizona was 17th as a fantasy
match-up for RBs last season and should improve a few spots this
year if they stay healthy.
Projections:
J.T. O’Sullivan: 260 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT/1 Fumble
Isaac Bruce: 60 yds/
Josh Morgan: 45 yds
Vernon Davis: 40 yds/1 TD
Arnaz Battle: 35 yds
Bryant Johnson: 25 yds
Frank Gore: 90 yds rushing/ 45 yds receiving/1 TD
Jake DelhommeMuhsin Muhammad/ D.J. Hackett/
Dwayne Jarrett/ Jeff King (vs. SD)
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
Passing Game Thoughts: Jake
Delhomme started last season throwing 8 Tds and 1 Int in his first
three games last year until injuring his elbow. He went through
Tommy John surgery in the offseason but there is little to no
history of quarterbacks dealing with this type of reconstruction.
The surgery is often very successful with baseball pitchers and
to this point all news has been good news. Delhomme claims his
arm is stronger than before and he has looked 100% in preseason
action. There is nothing to be concerned about with him. Where
there is concern is Steve “Bone Crusher” Smith’s
two-game suspension to open the season. He is the star of the
passing game. Given the task of filling his shoes are veteran
Muhsin Muhammad coming back from the Chicago Bears WR grave yard,
the talented but often injured D.J. Hackett, who holds the current
title of “Donte Stallworth of the west”, and second-year
newcomer Dwayne Jarrett is trying to end the streak of USC WR
busts.
Despite the veteran experience of Delhomme, there is too much
new chemistry to achieve success against the outstanding Charger
Defense. They have the ball-hawking Antonio Cromartie who led
the NFL with 10 interceptions despite not even starting until
late in the season. Former Texas All-American Quentin Jammer mans
the other corner back position. He is strong and aggressively
jams WRs in press coverage. A big reason for the secondary’s
play-making ability is the 3-4 pass rush of the Chargers front
seven led by Shawne Merriman. While his knee may somewhat limit
his ability to play the run and pass coverage, it may not hamper
his pass rush as drastically because he can still use his strength
and straight line quickness. We will just have to wait and see
if that holds true as he did not see preseason action. Even so,
expect the tandem of Luis Castillo, Igor Olshansky, and Jamal
Williams to do their share in making life difficult for Delhomme.
Running Game Thoughts: The Panthers
will focus on running the football. Their offseason focus emphasizes
that desire. They bolstered their offensive line with Ryan Kalil
and Jeff Otah and drafted Oregon standout Jonathan Stewart for
the exclamation point. To say he is an upgrade from Deshaun Foster
would be an insult to the word upgrade. Picture Stephen Davis
and add more speed, you get the idea. DeAngelo Williams will get
the starting nod and looked explosive in preseason action. He
is small but shifty and fast. They will face a Chargers Defense
that was average vs. the run last year giving up 102 yds/game.
Expect the Panthers to be an above average if not elite rushing
attack all year and better the 102 yd average of the Bolts D allows
despite not having Steve Smith to stretch the field.
Projections:
Jake Delhomme: 235 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT
D.J. Hackett: 65 yds receiving/1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 55 yds receiving
Dwayne Jarrett: 35 yds receiving
Jeff King: 35 yds receiving
DeAngelo Williams: 85 yds rushing/25 yds receiving
Jonathan Stewart: 40 yds rushing/ 1 TD
Phillip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio
Gates/
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. CAR)
Passing Game Thoughts: Playing
on a torn ACL in the playoffs has cemented Philip Rivers as a
locker room leader heading into 2008. He may be slightly hampered
by the lingering effects of his surgery, but he has played this
preseason effectively. As long as Tomlinson remains dominant,
Rivers will never be a top fantasy QB. The system just isn’t
wide open enough for him to achieve top level stats. He will remain
a solid low-end starter or high-end QB2 until then. The big concern
is TE Antonio Gates and his sprained toe. He has done some route
running before games and in practice so I’m expecting him
to see the field, but he’ll be less than his dominant self.
This will open the door for WRs Chris Chambers and talented, but
inconsistent Vincent Jackson to step up. Chambers has produced
before and Jackson had a good playoff run last year so they have
enough talent to get by while Gates gets right.
The Carolina passing defense had the 15th ranked defense for
opposing WRs and 19th for QBs. They are led by Ken “left
eye” Lucas and the highly-touted Chris Gamble who has been
solid, but has not quite lived up to his billing coming out of
Ohio State. Their best safety is Chris Harris. A big problem for
them last year was the disappearing act of Julius Peppers in the
pass rush. Many believe it was the result of a season long-injury
that hampered his performance and that he is now back to full
strength. If preseason is any indication then I would be happy
with what I’ve seen so far if I were Coach Fox. The Carolina
“D” will play closer to their 2006 form this year,
but it may not start opening week against a the Chargers stellar
offensive line.
Running Game Thoughts: All LaDainian
Tomlinson has heard since the 2007 playoffs are questions about
his heart and toughness for sitting out against the Pats. We are
about to see what happens when you give the world’s best
football player not named Brady or Manning months of bulletin
board material. Week one is not the week I would choose to face
him. That said it will be interesting to see if the loss of long-time
Pro Bowl road plow Lorenzo Neal will hamper his totals at all.
Darren Sproles and Jacob Hester combined will be good enough to
replace star back-up Michael Turner when Tomlinson needs as spell.
Sproles is the second coming of Lionel “Little Train”
James and Hester is a brute to tackle that gives as much as he
gets.
Projections:
Phillip Rivers: 245 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT
Chris Chambers: 75 yds/
Vincent Jackson: 65 yds/ 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 55 yds/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 125 yds rushing/45 yds receiving/ 2 TD’s
Peyton Manning/ Marvin Harrison/ Reggie
Wayne/ Anthony Gonzalez/ Dallas Clark/
Joseph Addai/ Dominic Rhodes (vs. CHI)
Passing Game Thoughts: A new
season and the goals for Peyton Manning and the Colts remain the
same - reach the Super Bowl. They begin their 2008 march against
their Super Bowl XLI opponent, the Chicago Bears. Off-season knee
surgery (bursa sac) was the talk of the town for Manning and fantasy
players everywhere, but practicing and showing little effects
is a soothing sight. As the most cerebral quarterback in the game,
Manning will have zero issues running the offense. Some say timing
will be a factor, but if there is any player for which it will
not be an issue, it is Manning in his offense. Marvin Harrison
returns from having both knees scoped this summer. He looked good
on short catches in the preseason, and we will see if he can maintain
his high-speed maneuvers from week-to-week. Reggie Wayne returns
from his season of ascent to the elite at the position, and young-stud-in-the-making
Anthony Gonzalez looks to carry and improve his fabulous December
2007. Oh, Dallas Clark is still here, too---he of the 11TDs in
2007. The Bears defense has lost swagger and luster since that
SB appearance, and a poor offense will keep them on the field
and tired. Expect eventual “horseshoe” fireworks.
Running Game Thoughts: Joseph
Addai comes into 2008 healthy and armed. He has a year of being
a fulltime starter under his belt, and his former reliever Dominic
Rhodes is back. The loss of Jeff Saturday may impact pass protection
schemes, but not the patented Indy stretch run play. Look for
Addai to pick and choose his spots against a run defense that
was spotty all of 2007 (this just in: Adrian Peterson is running
into the end zone…AGAIN!) Tommie Harris has an undisclosed
severity of his leg injury, and the depth along the line has become
suspect. An ailing Brian Urlacher won’t be enough to stop
the bleeding.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 300 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Marvin Harrison: 45 rec
Reggie Wayne: 95 rec/ 1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 65 rec/1TD
Dallas Clark: 50 rec/ 1TD
Joseph Addai: 80 rush/1 TD/35 rec
Dominic Rhodes: 30 rush
Kyle Orton/ Marty Booker/ Rashied Davis/ Devin
Hester/ Brandon Lloyd/ Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen/
Matt Forte/ Kevin Jones (vs. IND)
Passing Game Thoughts: Well,
head coach Lovie Smith flipped a coin, and Kyle Orton is the starting
quarterback. If only it were that simple. A lot has changed since
that Super Bowl XLI appearance. If possible, this offense has
gotten worse. Gone are Mushin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, in
are Devin Hester and Brandon Lloyd. Gone are steady Thomas Jones
and drunken Cedric Benson, in is Tulane rookie Matt Forte. Orton
was a game manager in 2005, leading a dominant defensive squad
into the playoffs by not making mistakes. The Colts have mastered
Coach Tony Dungy’s Cover Two scheme: they allowed the 3rd
least fantasy points to quarterbacks and the least fantasy points
to wide receivers in 2007. Dink-and-dunk works with doughnuts,
not against this secondary. Expect minimalistic numbers.
Running Game Thoughts: Rush
defense, on the other hand, was NOT the Colts’ cup of tea
in 2007, where they allowed the most fantasy points to opposing
running backs. The Bears attempted to retool the offensive line
in the draft, but rookie Chris Williams is out with a herniated
disc. The recent trade for Dan Buenning from Tampa Bay adds depth
behind shaky Terrance Metcalf and Josh Beekman. This unit was
near last in rushing last year, but rookie Matt Forte will have
one of his best shots to get it going versus a susceptible rush
defense. Kevin Jones, recovering from ACL surgery, was added as
a veteran backup.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 170 pass/0 TD/2 INT
Devin Hester: 50rec
Brandon Lloyd: 40 rec
Marty Booker: 30 rec
Rashied Davis: 15rec
Desmond Clark: 20 rec
Greg Olsen: 35 rec
Matt Forte: 65 rush/25 rec
Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/
Laurent Robinson/
Michael Turner/ Jerious Norwood (vs. DET)
Passing Game Thoughts: the
Falcons start with a new everything this season---coach, quarterback,
and running back. Matt Ryan has been dubbed as the replacement
for the team’s image at the glory position and he looked
comfortable in the preseason. Coaches kept his routes between
the numbers, in an effort not to expose his average arm strength.
They also deployed multiple-receiver sets in order to isolate
defensive coverage as man or zone. His poise and polish are improving,
and he should be a good play versus a bad, but improved secondary.
The Lions added veterans corner Brian Kelly and safety Dwight
Smith to coach Rod Marinelli’s Cover Two defense. Both were
regulars in the scheme’s prototype in Tampa Bay. Leigh Bodden
was added through trade from Cleveland. He saw a lot of passes
in an aerial division, but held his own as far as success rate
among all corners in the league. Expect a modest game from Ryan,
with nice yardage and probably a score for number 1 receiver Roddy
White. Remember, this is still a game one for a rookie not named
Peyton Manning.
Running Game Thoughts: the
Atlanta Falcons were a perennial powerhouse running the football
in the Mike Vick era. Now, they are revamped with a rookie left
tackle in Sam Baker and new faces at both guard (Harvey Dahl)
and right tackle (Tyson Clabo). The summer spending spree netted
Michael Turner from beneath the shadow of all-world running back
LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego. He is chomping at the bit for
his first opportunity as the lead man, and anxious to prove he
is worthy. Jerious Norwood will continue to spell the starter,
fully capable of busting loose for long runs. The Lions traded
mammoth Shaun Rogers away in the Bodden deal, so the middle may
be soft to the run. Expect a steady dose of Turner to keep the
play calling balance and setup play action to White down the field.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 195 pass/1TD/1INT
Roddy White: 75 rec/1TD
Michael Jenkins: 40 rec
Laurent Robinson: 30 rec
Michael Turner: 85 rush/25 rec/1TD
Jerious Norwood: 45 rush/20 rec
Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/Shaun
McDonald/Mike Furrey
Kevin Smith/Rudi Johnson (vs. ATL)
Passing Game Thoughts: Gone
is offensive coordinator Mike Martz, arrived is new play director
Jim Colletto. During the preseason, the Lions have succeeded at
maximizing their commitment to the run, and increasing the efficiency
of their pass game. Calvin Johnson looks awesome, much like Randy
Moss in the 1998 preseason. Do not expect as many multiple-receiver
sets, so the stats for WR3 and WR4 will be down this year. In
Atlanta, gone is motor mouth shutdown corner DeAngelo Hall, leaving
a starting corner lineup of youngsters Chris Houston, Brent Grimes,
and Chevis Jackson. Lawyer Milloy remains at safety, but is still
more of a hitter in the run game than a coverage factor. This
unit allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide outs last
year, and it does not bode well in 2008. Look for one of Kitna’s
better games, with more TDs than INTs, and at least one, if not
both, starting WRs reaching the century mark.
Running Game Thoughts: New
offensive coordinator Jim Colletto is shifting the offensive balance
from pass to run. The Lions feel if they can run with commitment,
they can pass better and rest their defense. Rookie Kevin Smith
was drafted in the 3rd round after a monster senior campaign (450
carries, 2500yds). He will use his size (6’1) and short
area elusiveness to pick his way for yards and set up short 3rd
downs. The Falcons let stud defensive tackle Rod Coleman walk
as part of the off-season roster purge. Keith Brooking remains
the veteran leader, with young buck LBs Michael Boley and Curtis
Lofton backing his charge. Look for the rookie runner to get some
nice looks against a soft defense, and have a red zone opportunity
for a score. The fresh news of the Rudi Johnson signing may or
may not affect this week’s lineup.
Projections:
Jon Kitna: 275 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Roy Williams: 90 rec/1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 120 rec/2 TD
Shaun McDonald: 20 rec
Mike Furrey: 20 rec
Kevin Smith: 70 rush/10 rec/1TD
Rudi Johnson: N/A
Jay Cutler/Eddie Royal/Brandon Stokely/Darrell
Jackson/Tony Scheffler
Selvin Young/Andre Hall (vs. OAK)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Broncos’
passing attack looks promising this season, but for this game
it looks very bleak. Quarterback Jay Cutler faces one of the league’s
top secondary units without the suspended Brandon Marshall, who
was the heart and soul of the passing game last season. The expected
starters are Darrell Jackson and Eddie Royal. Jackson is talented,
but was a major disappointment last year and has spent more of
his career in the trainer’s room then on the field. Rookie
Eddie Royal has been a bright spot this preseason and has a chance
to make some big plays once Marshall returns and gets the attention.
At TE, Tony Scheffler is a talented receiving threat that has
been flirting with stardom but battled a foot injury last season.
If he can stay healthy Denver should field an explosive pass attack
all year led by Cutler who has emerged as the best of the 2006
draft class’ big three QBs.
The Raiders think they have the league’s best secondary
this season with the additions of cornerback DeAngelo Hall and
Safety Gibril Wilson joining Michael Huff and Nnamdi Asomugha.
Don’t dial my number looking for an argument. They were
already the 5th worst secondary for QBs to face last year in FPTs/Game.
Derrick Burgess who led the Raiders in sacks last year will line
up across from rookie left tackle Ryan Clady from Boise State.
The Broncos are pleased with his progress but Burgess is tough
day at the office even for seasoned veterans. This could easily
become Cutler’s worst game of the entire season.
Running Game Thoughts: Selvin
Young will lead the rush attack against Oakland. He will have
to do so without five-time Pro Bowl center Tom Nalen. The Broncos
had problems rushing up the middle last season when Nalen was
lost to a torn bicep. His loss may be especially critical while
trying to make line calls for the two new offensive tackles that
are talented, but inexperienced. Expect Shanahan to try to get
Young outside on the edge in sweeps and stretch runs. The 3-4
defensive schemes won’t make life easier for the Denver
line as it requires more read and react blocking schemes than
a standard 4-3.
For as much as the loss at center may slow Denver rushing the
good news is that Oakland was the second-best defense for opposing
running backs to face last season in FPTs/game. We also know Warren
Sapp has retired to playing Madden with his housekeeper Sonia
and trying his hand at fantasy football this season. For Oakland
to be successful stopping the run they will likely look to bring
safety Gibril Wilson closer to the line of scrimmage and take
their chances with their vaunted cornerbacks in bump and run with
Bronco receivers. For this reason the loss of Marshall may affect
their ability to run the ball as well unless Cutler can find some
early success stretching the field.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 265 yds passing/1 TD/1 INT
Eddie Royal: 65 yds receiving
Darrel Jackson: 55 yds receiving
Brandon Stokely: 45 yds receiving
Tony Scheffler: 45 yds receiving/1 TD
Selvin Young: 85 yds rushing/35 yds receiving/1 TD
Andre Hall: 20 yds rushing
Michael Pitman 15 yds rushing/25 yds receiving
JaMarcus Russell/Ronald Curry/Javon Walker/Zach
Miller
Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas (vs. DEN)
Passing Game Thoughts: Oakland’s
passing prospects look rather bleak this year. New QB JaMarcus
Russell posses one of the strongest arms in the league but that
in itself is not enough to be immediately successful. He started
one game last season and threw for 225 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT
against a San Diego team that had wrapped up a playoff spot. Oakland
doesn’t really have any deep threat WRs that scare the opposition.
Ronald Curry is a nice receiver, but not a true deep threat. They
brought in Javon Walker to stretch the field, but he’s already
been beaten up in Vegas and talked out of retirement. He supposedly
wanted to retire due to his inability to beat coverage like he
could before his multiple knee surgeries. The Raiders are so desperate
for some receivers they picked up twice-cut and twice-failed Ashley
Lelie. Should the Raiders find themselves in the red zone then
they will get the ball to their promising young TE Zach Miller.
Drawing Champ Bailey and Dre Bly in his first start of the season
is not a good match-up for Russell. They can and likely will lock
down the Raider WRs in man coverage, baiting Russell into poor
throws. They are experienced and have great ball skills to pluck
errant passes. They can occasionally be beaten for a big play
because they aggressively jump routes, but they can just as easily
go pick six the other way. While the Broncos lose some leadership
in cutting future Hall of Fame safety Jon Lynch, they will gain
speed and coverage ability with Marquand Manuel. They should improve
upon their 24th ranked passing defense for fantasy QB’s
from last season.
Running Game Thoughts: Oakland
will look to run the ball to win this season until Russell matures.
They had the 2nd most rushing attempts last season and the addition
of Darren McFadden won’t slow that trend down. The explosive
rookie is expected to share the workload with Justin Fargas. McFadden’s
best asset is speed so they will look for ways to get him into
space. Fargas will handle the physical pounding between the tackles.
Fargas comes off a strong 2nd half to 2007 starting the last seven
games and rushing for 1009 yds and 5 TDs averaging 4.5 yds/carry.
One of the Broncos biggest problems last season was their porous
run defense and no team had more success running the ball on them
than Oakland. Both Lamont Jordan and Justin Fargas had 150-yard
games against them. They brought in defensive tackle DeWayne Robertson
a high draft disappointment for the Jets in hopes of helping the
problem. D.J. Williams has been moved back to his more natural
outside position with the emergence of Nate Webster and free agent
Niko Koutouvides in the middle. Denver will rely on young 2nd
year Florida Gator, Marcus Thomas to step up as well. Expect both
teams to have some success on the ground with the edge to the
raiders.
Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 205 yds passing/1 TD/2 INT
Ronald Curry: 65 yds
Javon Walker: 40 yds
Zach Miller: 35 yds/1 TD
Justin Fargas: 75 yds rushing/15 yds receiving
Darren McFadden: 60 yds rushing/40 yds receiving/1 TD
Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Antonio Bryant/Michael
Clayton
Earnest Graham/Michael Bennett (vs. NO)
Passing Game Thoughts: The
New Orleans Saints have among the worst pass defenses in the league,
period. Cornerback Jason David is statistically and visually among
the worst defenders at the position, giving up more big plays,
TDs, and completions than Kim Kardashian has terrible television
shows. That said, Joey Galloway always has great games in this
match up (he is averaging 5 recs for 125 yards his past 4 meetings,
with 5 TDs in that span). Jon Gruden has this team in the run-and-play
defense mold, but once in a while he reverts to his genes as a
passing game guru---this is one of those games. Look for Jeff
Garcia to light it up, and post one if his finer games of the
season. Michael Clayton has rejuvenated himself to body and football
since disappearing after a promising rookie campaign in 2004.
Antonio Bryant is another reclamation project and he is slated
to start this week.
Running Game Thoughts: longtime
backup Earnest Graham was pushed into the lineup after injuries,
and he never looked back. He posted a solid 900yds and 10scores
last year. The offensive line took a big hit when guard Davin
Joseph suffered a broken foot, but a recent trade for ex-Steelers
lineman Sean Mahan will fill the hole nicely. Michael Bennett
has looked nice in preseason, carrying with toughness and vision,
two things not normally applied to his speedster repertoire. Both
backs should get plenty of carries to slow the game down and keep
the Saints offense off the field and the game score low.
Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 230 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Joey Galloway: 100 rec/2 TD
Antonio Bryant: 60 rec
Michael Clayton: 20 rec
Earnest Graham: 80 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Michael Bennett: 50 rush/ 20 rec
Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/David
Patten/Robert Meachem/ Jeremy Shockey
Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister (vs. TB)
Passing Game Thoughts: One
might have imagined that after 650 attempts and 440 completions,
Drew Brees would require an arm transplant. Nevertheless, he and
head coach/play caller Sean Payton are poised for more fireworks.
Marques Colston has a new extension in hand, and is fast improving
among the top-6 WRs in the league. Already a top-4 QB in all of
fantasy, Brees gets more toys with Jeremy Shockey added via trade
to improve the red zone options and draw coverage from backfield
enigma Reggie Bush. The USC star has yet to impress as a runner,
but has demonstrated his value as a receiver (88 receptions in
2006). Robert Meachem saw his 2007 rookie campaign washed out
by injury, but has looked good in preseason. Despite a rugged
Tampa Bay secondary and prototype Cover Two, Brees averaged 220
yards passing last year in two games, with 3 TDs. Rhonde Barber
and Derrick Brooks remain as the anchors, and developing hitters
Jermaine Phillips and Tanard Jackson lay the lumber to any pass
catchers in their zip code. Expect medium ranged stats for the
stars in a controlled game with low chance of developing into
a passing frenzy.
Running Game Thoughts: Deuce
McAllister is coming off another knee surgery for a torn ligament.
One has to wonder if he regains effectiveness as he did in the
post-Katrina honeymoon season, when he posted 1000 yards and 10
TDs. Reggie Bush has all pundits laying bets as to whether he
is a career rushing bust with inability to recognize inside holes
or a star in waiting in this his third season. The team has averaged
85 yards rushing over the past four games in the series. Tampa’s
bend-don’t-break scheme will allow some gains, but usually
not a devastating rushing performance. Look for Bush and McAllister
to establish running lanes to avoid the Bucs pass rush teeing
off on Brees.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 255 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: 75 rec/1TD
Devery Henderson: 30 rec
David Patten: 20 rec
Robert Meachem: 30 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 45 rec/1TD
Reggie Bush: 30 rush/40 rec
Deuce McAllister: 40 rush
Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson/TJ Houshmandzadeh/Ben
Utecht
Chris Perry/Kenny Watson (vs. Baltimore)
Passing Game Thoughts: The skill
players for the Cincinnati Bengals have taken their share of lumps
this preseason, with TJ Houshmandzadeh’s lingering hamstring
issues, Chad Johnson’s shoulder injury, and Carson Palmer’s
broken nose. All are slated to play week one when the Bengals
travel to Baltimore, but one has to have some trepidation about
how they will fare. The trio did not once line up on the field
at the same time during the preseason, and that can’t be
a comforting thought to those relying on one of these players.
One bright spot, however, is Palmer performed well on the road
last year, tossing 15 of his 26 TDs away from Paul Brown Stadium.
The current Ravens defense may not resemble the squad from several
years ago, but its secondary is still chock-full of opportunistic
veterans ready to pounce on the mistakes of their opponents. Baltimore
cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are long in the tooth
and safety Ed Reed is nursing a minor injury, but this unit remains
a force.
Owners of Carson Palmer can only hope that he has shaken off the
stench of the mediocrity he displayed during the last month of
the 2007 season. He threw only five TDs during the final five
games. Opening the 2008 season against the Ravens on the road
doesn’t bode well for his anticipated resurrection. What
should also give pause to those inserting Palmer in their line-up
is the disastrous offensive line of the Bengals. If the preseason
is any indication (especially the Detroit and New Orleans games)
the Ravens will bring the heat early and often and force the sixth-year
signal caller into making quick decisions.
Running Game Thoughts: The
Bengals bid adieu to RB Rudi Johnson and handed the keys to the
running game to injury-prone Chris Perry. Kenny Watson should
see his share of carries too, especially after delivering the
goods last year when Johnson was sidelined. Both Perry and Watson
give the Bengal offense something it lacked when Johnson toted
the rock on a regular basis: a receiving threat out of the backfield.
That should provide an extra dimension to Cincinnati’s attack
and keep the aggressive front seven of the Ravens honest.
The million dollar question, however, is how effective will the
Bengal offensive line be? As mentioned above, pass blocking did
not prove to be this unit’s greatest asset during the preseason,
but they opened up running lanes for both Perry and Watson. Between
the two, it would appear that Perry is set to get the bulk of
the work. He’s younger, fresher, and quite frankly more
talented than Watson. Perry’s dilemma has always been his
health—or lack thereof. He’s only appeared in 22 games
during his four-year career, including a whopping six total games
over the previous two seasons. But the skills he displayed this
preseason confirmed why the Bengals made him a first round pick
in 2004. I suspect he will get the chance to show his stuff during
the regular season, but he and his fantasy owners will have to
contend with Watson. Watson is no scrub and his skill set complements
Perry’s, so I suspect a 60/40 split between the two, with
Perry having the advantage. It should be interesting to see if
the Bengals attempt to neutralize the aggressive nature of the
Ravens defense by incorporating more short passes and dump-off
throws to these two newly-minted fantasy sleepers.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 200 yards passing / 1 TD / 1 INT
Chad Johnson: 75 yards receiving
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Ben Utecht: 25 yards receiving
Chris Perry: 65 yards rushing / 35 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kenny Watson: 30 yards rushing
Joe Flacco/Derrick Mason/Mark Clayton/Todd Heap
Willis McGahee/Ray Rice (vs. Cincinnati)
Passing Game Thoughts: Baltimore’s
rookie QB Joe Flacco gets the starting nod by default. Kyle Boller
is battling a shoulder injury that may require surgery and Troy
Smith has infected tonsils. It really doesn’t matter who
is under center; if you’re relying on anyone in the Ravens’
passing game, good luck. They have no threats on the outside,
and couple that with inexperience at QB and a questionable offensive
line and what you have is a hot mess in the making. Sure, WR Derrick
Mason’s 104 receptions put him fourth in the league last
year, but his 10.6 yards per reception isn’t going to scare
anyone. And Mark Clayton is a good complementary WR, but isn’t
someone defenses are consumed with containing. The Bengal’s
secondary, while not stout, is serviceable enough to keep the
Ravens in check. Cincinnati’s two young corners—Jonathan
Joseph and Leon Hall—should be able to control the secondary
and keep the inept air attack of Baltimore grounded.
I would expect Cincinnati’s head coach Marvin Lewis to
help draw up elaborate defensive schemes in an effort to confuse
the young QB. Flacco is a big, statuesque figure in the pocket
(6-6, 230 lbs.) with limited mobility, so bringing pressure from
every angle should be job #1 for the Bengal’s defense. Perhaps
the best option for the Raven’s passing game is to incorporate
TE Todd Heap into the mix, but that’s only possible if he
doesn’t have to stay in to help the inexperienced offensive
line keep the Bengal’s defenders from harassing Flacco.
Overall expectations for Baltimore’s passing game should
be tempered substantially in this scenario. Flacco may prove to
be the QB the Ravens have long searched for, but expecting him
to engineer any semblance of productivity worthy of a fantasy
start is being overly optimistic.
Running Game Thoughts: If the
Ravens are to enjoy any level of success offensively in 2008,
especially early in the season, they are going to have to rely
on a hobbled Willis McGahee and rookie Ray Rice. McGahee had knee
surgery in August, but has vowed that he will play in week one;
Rice performed admirably during the preseason and made his case
for a viable handcuff for McGahee owners. There’s one huge
caveat, however, when counting on the Raven’s running attack
this season. The line of scrimmage will be packed with defenders,
as defensive coordinators dare young Flacco to air it out. That’s
going to prove to be tough sledding for Baltimore’s ground
attack, and McGahee will earn every inch of real estate he gains
in 2008. So with a crowded box, an untested offensive line and
a rookie QB, McGahee and Rice owners should gulp several Tums
tablets before subjected themselves to this snooze fest.
Maybe the one saving grace for those who have a Baltimore Raven
on their fantasy team is this contest against the Bengals should
be a close game, keeping the running game in play. If that is
indeed the case, head coach John Harbaugh will rely on his running
game to help milk the clock while aiding in the maturation process
of Flacco. I would caution those with McGahee in their line-up
to lessen their expectations of his production. He is coming off
a surgical procedure on the same knee that exploded during his
junior year in college, so one would assume Harbaugh will bring
along his RB slowly, thereby creating an opportunity for Ray Rice
to show what he can do. Look for there to be a 60/40 split in
carries, with McGahee getting the bulk of the action.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 135 yards passing / 0 TDs / 1 INT
Derrick Mason: 45 yard receiving
Mark Clayton: 35 yards receiving
Todd Heap: 40 yards receiving
Willis McGahee: 65 yards rushing / 1 TD
Ray Rice: 25 yards rushing
Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen
Daniels
Ahman Green/Steve Slaton (vs. Pittsburgh)
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt
Schaub got off to a good start last year, tossing five TDs through
his first four games, but he followed that up with throwing zero
TDs and four INTs during the next four games. And so it went for
the coveted 2007 free agent signee from Atlanta—inconsistency
throughout the year, coupled with nagging injuries that ultimately
sidelined him for the season. He may find it difficult to mirror
his fast start from last year, as the Houston Texans visit Pittsburgh
to open the season. We all know about Pittsburgh’s swarming
defense. Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau
has made a living at making life miserable for opposing QBs. Schaub,
however, has proven on some occasions that he can withstand the
onslaught of pressure defenses, but unfortunately he has also
shown a tendency to whither under that same pressure.
As difficult as it was for Schaub to remain healthy during 2007,
it was equally so for WR Andre Johnson. Johnson erupted the first
two games of last year (14 recs, 262 yards, 3 TDs), but a knee
injury sidelined him for two months. Now with a healthy signal
caller and go-to WR, it will be an interesting chess match between
defensive wiz LeBeau and Texans head coach Gary Kubiak. The strength
of the Texans is their passing game and the calling card of Pittsburgh
is its pass defense, so something has to give. It should not be
ignored that another off-season passed without Houston giving
Johnson a viable receiving option on the other side. Kevin Walter
is okay, but he’s just “a guy.” Owen Daniel
proved a good option last year, but his TD total (3) left a lot
to be desired relative to his reception and yardage total (63
and 768, respectively).
Running Game Thoughts: Wouldn’t
you know another season and another Ahman Green injury? Not that
I gain pleasure from his misfortunes, but Green’s health
issues are becoming borderline comical. How else can one explain
the routine nature in which he has been sidelined two of the last
three seasons? The Texans attempted to fortify their backfield
with the selection of RB Steve Slaton in the 2008 NFL Draft, and
his slashing, outside running ability should fit in well with
Houston’s offense. Green’s injured groin and Slaton’s
injured toe are said to not be severe enough to keep neither out
of the contest against Pittsburgh, but the overall expectations
of either doing anything significant against the Steelers should
be tempered.
Houston’s offensive line seems to be a continued work in
progress with the implementation of the “vaunted”
zone blocking scheme. In order for the passing game to open up,
which I contend is the only way for them to compete with the Steelers,
the Texans must prove to Pittsburgh that they are willing and
able to run the ball. Are Green, Slaton and company equipped to
do so? We will see. But rest assured the Steelers will indeed
employ the same tactics that made them the league’s top
defense, so the Texans will have their work cut out for them on
Sunday trying to gain yardage on the ground.
Projections:
Matt Schaub: 200 yards passing / 2 TDs / 2 INTs
Andre Johnson: 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kevin Walter: 40 yards receiving
Owen Daniel: 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Ahman Green: 45 yards rushing
Steve Slaton: 40 yards rushing
Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/ Santonio Holmes/Heath
Miller
Willie Parker/Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Houston)
Passing Game Thoughts: QB Ben
Roethlisberger is coming off a career year and his match-up in
week one sets up perfectly for him to pick up where he left off
in 2007. Houston has one of the best young defenses in the league,
anchored by a front seven that features DE Mario Williams, LB
DeMeco Ryans and company, but the secondary is the vulnerable
spot. Starting CB Dunta Robinson is on the PUP list with a bum
knee, and his absence leaves a void in a unit that, quite frankly,
was average even when he was healthy. Names such as Fred Bennett,
C.C. Brown and Jacques Reeves will have Roethlisberger salivating
at the prospect of throwing against Houston’s no-name secondary.
In the eyes of many observers, WR Santonio Holmes has taken over
as the most dynamic receiving threat in Pittsburgh. With all due
respect to fellow WR Hines Ward, Holmes regularly utilized his
limitless abilities last year on his way to leading the team in
TD receptions (8). Plus, he’s the team’s only true
deep threat, and he’s entering that magical third year,
so everything points to Holmes having a break-out season in 2008
and it starts in earnest this Sunday against the overmatched and
undermanned Texan secondary. The key, however, will be Pittsburgh’s
offensive line giving Roethlisberger the time in the pocket he
needs to find his targets.
Running Game Thoughts: Pittsburgh
Steeler founder Art Rooney probably rolled over in his grave last
year when Roethlisberger tossed a franchise record 32 TD passes.
An organization best known for its grind-it-out running style,
the Steelers rode the coattails of its then, fourth-year QB. It
appears that’s the way it’s going to be in Steeler
country for the foreseeable future, but that didn’t stop
the organization from attempting to strengthen their running game
with the draft day selection of Illinois product Rashard Mendenhall.
Incumbent RB Willie Parker is coming off a broken leg suffered
late last season, and Mendenhall’s do-everything ability
lends itself brilliantly to what Parker can do. Mendenhall had
a case of fumble-itis during the preseason, but that shouldn’t
deter owners from modifying their expectations for him in 2008.
The Steelers will do their damage offensively through the air
this year, but the duo of Parker and Mendenhall will certainly
have their share of productive moments. The Houston front seven
is a vastly underrated group, and running against this formidable
foe will prove challenging in week one. The Pittsburgh offensive
line has a tall order in replacing free agent defector Alan Faneca.
This unit isn’t considered one of the best run-blocking
groups in the league, but they are serviceable. However, they
will have a difficult time keeping tabs on the active front seven
of Houston, and consequently, the RB duo of Pittsburgh will find
few lanes in which to run on Sunday. This game will be won by
putting the rock in the capable hands of Ben Roethlisberger, with
Parker and Mendenhall left to kill the clock late in the game.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 285 yards passing / 3 TDs / 1 INT
Santonio Holmes: 125 yards receiving / 2 TDs
Hines Ward: 80 yards receiving
Heath Miller: 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Willie Parker: 80 yards rushing
Rashard Mendenhall: 45 yards rushing
Tony Romo / Terrell Owens / Patrick Crayton
/ Jason Witten
Marion Barber / Felix Jones (vs. Cleveland)
Passing Game Thoughts: The
Cleveland Browns are the en vogue sleeper pick of 2008, but one
look at their secondary should give even the most ardent fan heart
palpitations. They traded away arguably their best defensive back
in Leigh Bodden in the Shaun Rogers deal, and what’s left
is a collection of good but not great players. Opponents took
advantage of this weakness routinely during the preseason and
it won’t be a surprise when the NFC East-favored Dallas
Cowboys come to town on Sunday and continue the trend. Dallas’
offensive line is huge and athletic and capable of keeping the
Cleveland defenders at bay, allowing Romo to comfortably stand
in the pocket and pick apart the Browns’ secondary.
The Browns have no one to cover the two biggest threats in the
Dallas passing game, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. T.O.
will have his way on the outside against the likes of CBs Eric
Wright or Brandon McDonald. He’s simply too big, too fast,
and too talented to be neutralized by this collection of defenders.
And T.O.’s presence on the perimeter will open up receiving
lanes for Witten, arguably the NFL’s best TE. He’s
too athletic for linebackers and too strong for defensive backs,
so how are they going to cover him? Head coach and defensive coordinator-at-heart
Romeo Crennel will earn his paycheck in week one trying to devise
a scheme to contain the multi-dimensional Cowboy aerial attack.
Running Game Thoughts: Marion
Barber is a running back’s running back. He runs with anger,
with purpose, and with force. And while this style doesn’t
lend itself to longevity, it certainly is entertaining to watch.
But what’s not entertaining is being on the receiving end
of one of those punishing forearm shivers courtesy of Mr. Barber.
Unfortunately for Browns fans, this will be a regular occurrence
on Sunday. Romo’s assault on the Cleveland secondary should
open up avenues in the defense that Barber will exploit. Newly-signed
free agent DT Shaun Rogers mans the interior of the Cleveland
defensive line, and if history is any indication, the first month
of the season is when the big fella truly displays his uncanny
and eyebrow-raising talents. He will be a handful for the Dallas
O-line, no question. But he should be neutralized enough to not
be a big enough factor to derail the productivity of Barber.
The arrival of rookie RB Felix Jones is just what the doctor
ordered. Unlike his predecessor with the same surname, Felix Jones
is a more gifted and versatile runner than former Dallas RB Julius
Jones. His presence is very much needed, what with the bulldozer
running style of Barber. Jones should get his share of carries
on Sunday and throughout the season, because there seems to be
no way Barber’s aggressive approach to running the football
can last for 300 carries over 16 games.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 250 yards passing / 2 TDs
Terrell Owens: 135 yards receiving / 1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 40 yards receiving
Jason Witten: 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Marion Barber: 90 yards rushing / 1 TD
Felix Jones: 25 yards rushing
Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Donte’
Stallworth/Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. Dallas)
Passing Game Thoughts: Derek
Anderson’s ascension to NFL stardom was one of the best
stories of 2007, so what will he do for an encore? Well, it gets
started against one of the best teams in the league, and if Anderson
is to continue his rise to elite status, he must do so against
a seasoned opponent with talent galore on defense. Anderson won’t
be bringing a knife to a gun fight, however. The Browns are not
short of weapons on offense. WR Braylon Edwards, TE Kellen Winslow
and oft-injured journeyman WR Donte’ Stallworth are formidable
options in the passing game, and Anderson will maximize the opportunities
of his skill players.
Dallas utilizes its athletes on defense brilliantly, with OLBs
DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis often bringing heat from the perimeter.
But Cleveland’s young and talented O-line should be up for
the task. Anderson is coming off a mild concussion suffered in
the second game of the preseason. Word is he has practiced all
week and should be ready to go on Sunday. It’s also been
revealed that Dallas has finally realized what many have known
for some time: safety Roy Williams is a complete liability in
the pass game. As a result, they plan to spell Williams on third
down and obvious passing plays.
Running Game Thoughts: RB Jamal
Lewis injured a hamstring during the preseason, but word is he’s
on track to play week one against Dallas. His presence and productivity
is crucial to the Browns doing well against the Cowboys. Lewis’
bruising, between-the-tackles running style is a perfect complement
to Cleveland’s receiving weapons. The Browns boast one of
the best young offensive lines in the league and they will be
relied on to pave the way for Lewis in week one and beyond.
I love Jamal Lewis in this game and for 2008. The hamstring issues
notwithstanding, he has been relatively durable during his career
and he will be the Browns’ bell cow. The Dallas defense
was stout against the run last year, but it’s crucial that
the Browns stick with the running game. And as important as Anderson
is, it starts with the guys up front opening holes for Lewis and
the force with which he plows through them. Establishing the power
run game that Lewis is best known for should pull safety Roy Williams
closer to the line of scrimmage and allow the passing game to
thrive.
Projections:
Derek Anderson: 190 yards receiving / 1 TD
Braylon Edwards: 85 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kellen Winslow: 65 yards receiving
Donte’ Stallworth: 30 yards receiving
Jamal Lewis: 90 yards rushing / 1 TD
Tarvaris Jackson/Bernard Berrian/Sidney
Rice
Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor (vs. Green Bay)
Passing Game Thoughts: QB Tarvaris
Jackson injured a knee during the preseason but he indicated that
he will play Monday night against Green Bay. Minnesota’s
coaching staff has displayed an awful lot of faith in Jackson
during his short career. He has performed ok at times, but has
struggled mightily during others (that patented 5-yard jump pass
against San Diego last year comes to mind). I personally haven’t
seen much to get overly excited about the prospects of him being
anything other than an average game manager.
Green Bay has one of the best CB tandems in the league in Charles
Woodson and Al Harris and they will make Jackson work for every
completed pass. WRs Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice make up the
best receiving duo the Twin Cities have seen since Randy Moss
and Cris Carter called Minnesota home. But before they begin to
even enter into the same galaxy as their Hall of Fame-bound predecessors,
they must first learn to challenge and eventually get the better
of the Packer CB twosome.
Running Game Thoughts: It is
almost illegal that an all-world talent such as RB Adrian Peterson
has the opportunity to run behind such a stellar offensive line.
And even with Bryant McKinnie’s four-game suspension, this
quintet is still one of the top three units in the NFL. A.P. sliced
up Green Bay’s defense last year. In the two games, one
in which he was injured he totaled 23 carries for 157 yards. Not
too bad, considering the talent on Green Bay’s defense.
Talk of Peterson cannot be complete, however, without mentioning
his knack for getting injured. Back-up RB Chester Taylor is perhaps
the best and most necessary handcuff in fantasy football, and
he is the epitome of insurance policies for Minnesota. Even as
Peterson ripped up the league on his way to finishing second in
rushing yards, Taylor quietly put up very respectable numbers
(844 yards, 7 TDs, 5.4 avg.). Both will be productive and counted
on heavily as Jackson continues his maturation at QB.
Projections:
Tarvaris Jackson: 160 yards passing / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Bernard Berrian: 70 yards receiving
Sidney Rice: 55 yards receiving / 1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 135 yards rushing / 1 TD
Chester Taylor: 40 yards rushing
Aaron Rodgers/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/Donald
Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. MIN)
Passing Game Thoughts: Talk
about pressure. The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay will commence
under the watchful eyes of football fans everywhere on a Monday
night against perhaps the toughest defense in the conference.
I suspect we will see jitters and overthrown passes when Rodgers
takes the field at Lambeau. But Rodgers will take over a team
with capable skill players who should pick up the slack should
Rodgers falter at any time. WRs Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and
TE Donald Lee provide Rodgers with the kind of potent offensive
weaponry that any QB would desire.
Rodgers had better be mindful of the inevitable pressure when
he drops back in the pocket. The Vikings added free agent DE Jared
Allen from Kansas City, and putting him on a D-line that already
boasts the best defensive tackle tandem in the league in Pat and
Kevin Williams and what you have is a QB’s worst nightmare.
With that said, I would think Packer head coach Mike McCarthy
will incorporate safe, short passes to not only get Rodgers comfortable
and in rhythm, but neutralize an overpowering front four that
is hell-bent on getting to the QB.
Running Game Thoughts: RB Ryan
Grant exploded onto the scene last year after those ahead of him
on the depth chart proved themselves useless. He arrived at training
camp in 2008 seeking a contract extension, which he received.
Grant promptly injured his hamstring and hasn’t played or
practiced much sense. His status for Monday night’s game
remains uncertain, but does it really matter? No one runs on Minnesota
and I would suspect a hobbled running back with hamstring issues
stands little chance to be productive against the men in purple.
And if Grant doesn’t play or is limited, it could get ugly
for the Packers. Becoming a one dimensional team with a QB making
his first start is a perilous way to make a living in the NFL.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 175 yards passing / 1 TD / 2 INT
Donald Driver: 75 yards receiving
Greg Jennings: 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Donald Lee: 30 yards receiving
Ryan Grant: 40 yards rushing
David Garrard/Jerry Porter/Troy Williamson/Dennis
Northcutt/Reggie Williams/Matt Jones
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. TEN)
Passing Game Thoughts: This
team made the jump to contender by winning tough road games last
December. They followed that by repeating a victory in Pittsburgh
during the wildcard weekend. David Garrard was the consummate
game manager, leading a potent rush attack with precise, timely
passes to a variety of steady, no-named weapons. His league-low
interception count of only three was outstanding. This year, coach
Jack Del Rio fills his WR stable with Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson,
cast-offs of the Raiders and Vikings, respectively. Both seek
to restart their careers. Tall Reggie Williams remains a red zone
jump ball threat (10TDs in 2007), and veteran Dennis Northcutt
rounds out a deep unit. The Titans still sport a massive pass
rush, with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Albert Haynesworth, and the reacquired
Jevon Kearse. Cortland Finnegan is a rugged playmaker at corner,
and Chris Hope has vast range at safety. Garrard should be able
to efficiently slice his way for moderate numbers, with receivers
being solid, but unspectacular.
Running Game Thoughts: This
is the best running back 1-2 punch in football, period. Fred Taylor
continues a beautiful career with the same franchise, and even
at age 32 remains productive due to a high YPC (5.0 and 5.4 the
past 2 seasons). Maurice Jones-Drew is the compact wrecking ball
that runs, receives, and even blocks (just ask Shawne Merriman!)
Albert Haynesworth is the most important run-stopper in the NFL
(the Titans allowed 100 more yds per game rushing without him
in a 3 game stretch last year). He should keep this duo from exploding,
but count on steady numbers with at least one TD.
Projections::
David Garrard: 210 pass/2 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Jerry Porter: 55 rec
Troy Williamson: 30 rec
Dennis Northcutt: 35 rec
Reggie Williams: 30 rec/1 TD
Matt Jones: 25 rec/1TD
Fred Taylor: 60 rush/1TD
Maurice Jones-Drew: 40 rush/40 rec
Vince Young/Justin Gage/Justin McCareins/Brandon
Jones/LaVelle Hawkins
LenDale White/Chris Johnson (vs. JAX)
Passing Game Thoughts: Vince
Young has developed into a problem: he is a reality winner and
a fantasy loser. On the field, he does enough with his legs and
arm to direct his team to wins and the playoffs. On our stat sheets,
his passing prowess is ugly, and the occasional run doesn’t
compensate enough. They drafted 4th round receiver Lavelle Hawkins
to help out. They also brought back offensive coordinator Mike
Heimerdinger from the Broncos and WR Justin McCareins from the
Jets. Young did have one of his better passing days numbers-wise
last year versus these Jags (257/1/2), so all hope is not lost.
The Jacksonville secondary is still lockdown capable with young
start Rashean Mathis blanketing half of the field. If Young has
improved beyond his preseason showing, we might see a decent performance;
more than likely, until proven otherwise, avoid this on your starter
column.
Running Game Thoughts: The
run game powered this team and its defense to the playoffs last
season. LenDale White showed why he posted 21TDs as a senior running
alongside Reggie Bush. He carried a power load 300+ times, and
apparently with a meniscus tear. Healthy and hearty, he looks
to continue to be the engine in Jeff Fisher’s offense. Rookie
sensation Chris Johnson is no secret anymore. I love watching
the highlights and film on “super jets”. His ability
to take away angles from closing defenders is uncanny, and bubbles
the possibilities of his use in the backfield of a spread offense
with a power runner and mobile quarterback. Last year, the Titans
ripped these Jags for 200+ yards rushing out of the gate in the
opener. Was that an aberration? Since then, Marcus Stroud has
been traded to Buffalo, and the defensive line replacements are
pass rush specialists. Expect a heavy dose of White and company
to keep the game in the balance.
Projections:
Vince Young: 170 pass/0 TD/2 INT/55 rush
Justin Gage: 40 rec
Justin McCareins: 30 rec
Brandon Jones: 30 rec
LaVelle Hawkins: 20 rec
LenDale White: 90 rush/1 TD
Chris Johnson: 50 rush/35 rec
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