Steelers @ Cardinals (Marcoccio)

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston/Leonard Pope
Edgerrin James/Tim Hightower (vs. PIT)

Passing Game Thoughts: Kurt Warner’s story book career could have an ending so magical that it would borderline on being too sappy to believe if you watched a movie about his life story without knowing it was true. An Arena League quarterback/grocery store stock boy comes out of nowhere to lead a downtrodden NFL team to the Super Bowl twice but then has his career marred by injury and ineffectiveness while he bounces around the league. Our hero then gets back in the limelight and rides into the sunset after leading one of the most maligned franchises in NFL history to a Super Bowl victory over one of the fiercest defenses of all time. Wow. Warner has been able to beat the blitz all playoff long with quick smart decisions. It surely helps having Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, the most dominant starting wide receiver combination in the NFL, on his side. Throw in emerging slot WR Steve Breaston and the Cardinals present unimaginable and horrific match up problems for an opposing secondary.

However, before the “perfect ending” takes place for Warner, Kurt and his fellow Cardinals will face the No. 1 ranked defense against the pass. Pittsburgh sacked opposing QBs 51 times during the regular season with 16 coming from Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison. The Steelers incredibly allowed only 156.9 passing yards per game and 12 TDs during the regular season and have been just as dominating throughout the playoffs. Rookie sensation Joe Flacco fell back to Earth in the AFC championship game where he sealed the Ravens’ fate by tossing a TD that was returned for a TD in the closing minutes.

Running Game Thoughts: A few weeks back in this column I wrote ”Edgerrin James is a shell of his former self and his burst is no longer there, but I’m still not convinced the Cardinals made the right call when they sent him to the sidelines in favor of rookie Tim Hightower. Hightower has some nice power, but lacks speed and isn’t as savvy a runner as the vet James.” I’m not sure if Ken Wisenhutt reads my work (OK, I’m pretty sure he doesn’t), but the Cardinals went back to James with very effective results so far in these playoffs. Of course Hightower hasn’t just been put on ice as he did garner the most important carry in franchise history plowing for the first down yardage on fourth down and then went on to score the game winning TD during the same drive in the NFC Championship game. Hightower works well in smaller doses but isn’t the feature back that James is. Both backs will find running room tough this Sunday as neither are explosive enough to cause the Steelers trouble.

The Steelers were the 2nd ranked defense against the run and allowed only 80.3 yards per game and 7 rushing TDs in the regular season. Safety Troy Polamanu is one of the more recognizable players in the league due to his flowing black mane, and is arguably the best defensive player in the game today. As effective as he is as a safety in pass coverage he’s even better close to the line of scrimmage stopping the run. When all is said and done if the Steelers win this game we may be mentioning this defense in the same breath as the ’85 Bears and ’00 Ravens as one of the all-time great units.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 245 yds passing 2 TD, 2 INTs
Larry Fitzgerald: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Steve Breaston: 45 yds receiving
Leonard Pope: 10 yds receiving
Edgerrin James: 35 yds rushing
Tim Hightower: 25 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving

Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore (vs. ARI)

Passing Game Thoughts: Big Ben Roethlisberger is on a mission to “win” a Super Bowl rather than just being a starting QB on a Super Bowl winning team. Roethlisberger had an up and down season due in large part to an ineffective offensive line, which combined with his tendency to hold onto the ball too long at times got him sacked a bunch. Hines Ward practiced yesterday and it looks like he could play on Sunday – a big plus for the Steelers. Fellow WR Santonio Holmes is developing into one of the better WRs running with the ball in his hands after the catch and also contributes on special teams. Heath Miller has disappeared from the stats sheet at times this season due in part to the aforementioned offensive line problems causing him to be used as a blocker more than in past seasons, but he is still a dangerous target and red zone threat.

Arizona allowed an incredible 36 TDs through the air during the regular season but have clamped down during the playoffs – although Donovan McNabb did light them up in the NFC Championship game and if he was more accurate in the first half he could have finished with close to 500 yards passing and 6 TDs in the game. Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie had as fine a rookie season at CB as anyone in a long time and has played well in the playoffs. The Cardinals can generate a pass rush and that will be a key to this game. If the Cardinals do get up early forcing Pittsburgh to abandon the run they can get to Roethlisberger and make it tough on the Steelers to move the ball.

Running Game Thoughts: The thing about the Steelers though is they seldom abandon the run, even when falling behind. Fast Willie Parker is having a very nice playoff run after a mediocre regular season marred by injury. Mewelde Moore who was expected to be not much more than a 3rd down back and kick returner when he signed this off-season took advantage of the opportunities granted by Parker’s injuries and a season ending injury to rookie Rasheed Mendenhall. Moore rushed for 588 yards and five TDs while also catching 40 balls for 320 yards and a TD in 4 starts (16 games) during the regular season, but has quieted down with Parker back on track in the playoffs.

Arizona had a very average run defense during the regular season (in fact they were ranked 16th) allowing just over 110 yards per game and 13 TDs, but have played much better during the playoffs. The Cardinals held some of 2008’s best running backs – Michael Turner, D’Angelo Williams and Brian Westbrook - to very quiet playoff games during their run to the Super Bowl. Of course they did get out to early leads in all their games which forced the opposition to run far less than normal, so don’t expect them to shut the Steelers down.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 205 yds passing 2 TDs / 15 yards rushing
Hines Ward: 45 yds receiving
Santonio Holmes: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 30 yds receiving, 1 TD
Willie Parker: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving
Mewelde Moore: 15 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving

Final Score: Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 17