Eagles @ Cardinals (Dhawan)

Donovan McNabb/DeSean Jackson/Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown/Jason Avant/L.J. Smith
Brian Westbrook/Correll Buckhalter (vs. ARI)

Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid have rewritten the trials of Job this year. A promising season highlighted by the return to health of the two biggest stars began to leak water midway through November. Inconsistent play [McNabb], injuries [Westbrook] and buffoon play calling [Reid] sank the team downwards, the low point being the publicized benching of the QB during a demolition at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. Since that time, the Eagles are hot. McNabb answered in a must win and respond game on Thanksgiving night, defeating these Cardinals by tossing 4TDs in a 48-20 blowout. There was the goose egg laid by the team against the Redskins late, but the thrashing of the Cowboys [with a lot of luck] put them into the playoffs. They used a steady pass attack to wear down the Vikings, punctuating the close game late with a homerun screen pass TD to Westbrook. Last week, they survived the defending champs in windy conditions with stellar defense. This will be McNabb’s fifth trip to the Conference Championship game, with only 1 victory thus far. Can he will the team on the road to another playoff win? Do not expect to see the week13 McNabb who was on fire, as the desperation of career and employment does not hang on heads as sharply today. The biggest keys to this game are balance and scenery. The Eagles have tried all season to get balanced on offense with the run and pass, but have been labile and dysfunctional at best. The scene of this game will be the “Big Toaster”, which Atlanta Falcons HC Mike Smith said last week, “was deafening and unexpectedly energized” [they play home games in the Georgia Dome, so if he thinks it was loud, watch out!] Donovan has been solid the past 2 games, but not spectacular [2TDs, 3INTs, but handled the wind]. At home this year, he posted 15TDs, 3INTs, and a 99 QB Rating; on the road, a mediocre 8TDs, 8INTs, and 76 QB Rating. If the pass rush keeps active, watch for the Cardinals young secondary highlighted by “non-“rookie CB Dominique Rodgers Cromartie and safeties Adrian Wilson and Antrel Rolle to make hard hits and plays on the average Eagles receiving unit.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook is again limping around the training complex, this time nursing a “tweaked” knee suffered in last week’s win. When healthy, he did have his customary handful of explosive games this season; on the other hand, there were also head scratcher games where he was neutralized and unused/improperly used by his coach. The Cardinals have locked down their rush defense this postseason much like the 2006 Colts—what was once horrible during the regular season has become a postseason weapon. The Eagles will need to do something most fans know is difficult for them---stay committed to the run. If they are unsuccessful, even with attempts, the pass rush may eventually force McNabb into mistakes [as did the Vikings].

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 285 pass/2 TD/2 INT
DeSean Jackson: 50 rec/ 20 rush
Kevin Curtis: 55 rec
Reggie Brown: 35 rec
Jason Avant: 50 rec
LJ Smith: 30 rec
Brian Westbrook: 55 rush/30 rec/ 1TD
Correll Buckhalter: 35 rush/20 rec/1TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston/Leonard Pope/Jerheme Urban
Edgerrin James/Tim Hightower (vs. PHI)

Passing Game Thoughts: No one guessed in September or December that the unexpected playoff team that will make noise after being discounted to having no chance would indeed be these Arizona Cardinals. Veteran QB Kurt Warner [who won the starting job during the night of this writer’s main league draft] has resurrected his career by once again showing off his pinpoint accuracy in a high octane offense. Last week’s stirring performance was a testament to great game planning and execution. Warner [106 QB Rating at home with 290 passing YPG, 17TDs, only 5 INTs] used the run game balance to set up his passing attack, and WR Larry Fitzgerald stole the show. Using crossing routes and an acrobatic jump ball, he cooked the Panthers secondary like a holiday goose. This week, WR Anquan Boldin will play after resting his hamstring for 2 weeks. Do not read too much into the previous meeting of these teams, as the Eagles had everything for which to play and the Cardinals, having already clinched their division, had nothing. Would you rather be taking the hits of Jim Johnson’s blitz package on a cold November night, or at home by the fire enjoying Thanksgiving dessert? Look for Ken Whisenhunt to once again turn back the clock on the game plan. During the Steelers Championship Game runs of 2004 and 2005, he flipped the run heavy game plan into one featuring QB Ben Roethlisberger, contrary to what opponents had predicted or imagined. The past 2 weeks, he has established Edgerrin James and the run game to limit the pass attempts of Warner. This week will indeed be important to feature balance, as the drop back count will equate directly to the blitz opportunity and impending turnover count. The antidote for those blitzes will be the spread. In the 2003 Super Bowl, the Patriots used a spread attack with 4 and 5 receivers to slow the blitz attack down, and expose match ups in the secondary beyond quality CBs [this unit currently features stars Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown, and Lito Sheppard]. The other weapon effective against this pressure package is the screen pass, so watch for speedy HB Tim Hightower, reserve HB JJ Arrington, and especially WR Anquan Boldin to be effective with this play. When Warner has time, he will launch it deep and test the CBs against Fitzgerald and the jump ball.

Running Game Thoughts: HBs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower will be counted on this week to help slow down the exotic blitz package of the Eagles. If they can run as effectively as in their previous playoff wins, they will make he strides for the passing game. The Eagles allowed only 70 yards rushing per game in their 9 season victories; they were mulched for 120 yards per game in their 7 losses and tie. They have been allowing 145 yards per game rushing in the playoffs. Look for the underrated Cardinals offensive line [which turned Julius “Habanero” Peppers into a weak flavored Bell Pepper last week] to establish the run versus the aggressive run blitzes.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 320 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 100 rec/1TD
Anquan Boldin: 60 rec/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 70 rec
Jerheme Urban: 30 rec/ 1TD
Leonard Pope: 20 rec
Edgerrin James: 70 rush/1 TD
Tim Hightower: 30 rush/30 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Upset special part2….Arizona 31, Philadelphia 20

Ravens @ Steelers (Mack)

Joe Flacco / Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap
Le’Ron McClain / Willis McGahee

Passing Game Thoughts: If I hear another know-it-all football analyst rave about Joe Flacco being the first rookie to ever win two playoff games, I’m going to throw my remote through the television. They make it seem as if the youngster from Delaware St. has taken the squad on his shoulders and orchestrated an offensive clinic that would make Joe Montana blush. Please. Spare me the hyperbole. Let’s take a look at what Flacco has done in his first two playoff games compared to the last QB to take the Ravens this far in the postseason: Trent Dilfer. Flacco has thrown for 296 yards through his two playoff games while completing 44 percent of his passes. Dilfer threw for 247 yards with a completion percentage of 46 percent. Both threw for one TD with zero interceptions. The interesting part is Dilfer’s reward for his feats in that championship run in 2001 was a pink slip, while Flacco is being showered with praise and adulation even though his numbers are painfully similar to Dilfer’s. Sure he’s only a rookie and rookies don’t normally get this far. That’s because their teams’ defenses are not the quality of the Ravens’. Make no mistake. Flacco is here because of the Ravens’ defense. Nothing more.

With all of that being said, Flacco enters into a bee’s nest in Pittsburgh this week. His passing efficiency should remain around the sub-50 percent, as he goes up against the league’s top-ranked defense. Starting WRs Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton have had limited reps in practice this week because of various injuries, but both should suit up and play. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator wiz Dick LeBeau will no doubt draw up blitz schemes in an attempt to attack the overhyped Flacco and force him into mistakes. The Steelers’ 55 sacks were second in the NFL this year, so Flacco can expect to have plenty of company in the pocket when he drops back to pass. Expect the rookie to struggle to throw for anything north of 120 yards in this game.

Running Game Thoughts: Baltimore’s best shot at moving the ball with any regularity will be pounding it on the ground with Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. It will still prove a daunting task, as Pittsburgh boasts the league’s #1 run defense. But establishing a physical presence will provide Baltimore with the best opportunity to impose its will on the aggressive Steeler defense. McClain is the battering ram who will get the lion’s share of the carries. He could easily see 20 carries in this game. And McGahee, to his credit, has taken his reduced role in the offense in stride. As a veteran, he deserves immense credit for not rocking the boat—especially with a rookie head coach. For Baltimore to have the best opportunity at winning this game, they must run the ball no fewer than 35 times. That means both McClain and McGahee will be key factors in the Ravens’ offensive game plan. McClain may get an opportunity for a short TD run, but don’t count on it. I think the only way the Ravens light up the scoreboard will come from the big toe of kicker Matt Stover.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 130 yards / 0 TDs / 1 INT
Derrick Mason: 55 yards
Mark Clayton: 40 yards
Todd Heap: 25 yards
Le’Ron McClain: 50 yards
Willis McGahee: 35 yards

Ben Roethlisberger / Hines Ward / Santonio Holmes / Nate Washington / Heath Miller
Willie Parker / Mewelde Moore / Gary Russell

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger shook off the effects of his week 17 concussion last week against San Diego and put up efficient numbers. His 181 yards and one TD helped set the table for a running game that thrashed the Chargers. He should be able to put up similar numbers against a Baltimore defense that gave up almost 400 total yards to the Tennessee Titans last week. We all know that Roethlisberger has a curious habit of holding on to the ball in the pocket way too long. This makes for an inviting target for skilled defenders (of which the Ravens have plenty) to get that coveted sack-fumble on the QB. So Roethlisberger has to be mindful of not trying to be Superman while trying to make the big play every time. If he realizes that punting the ball in this game is not too bad an alternative, he should be ok.

The Ravens will more than likely be without sack master Terrell Suggs, who suffered a shoulder injury in last week’s game. This should give Pittsburgh’s passing game a bit of an edge. Couple that with the way in which Titans’ QB Kerry Collins torched Baltimore CB Fabian Washington with passes to Justin Gage and the possibility of the Steelers moving the ball through the air with success is a strong possibility. It doesn’t help Baltimore’s cause that CB Samari Rolle is battling an injury as well. Consequently, Hines Ward could be huge in his game. With his ability to get open underneath and on shallow crossing patterns, Ward could easily have 6-8 receptions in this game. Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington are the deep threats in the passing game, but Big Ben may not be afforded the time in the pocket to make them suitable options this week.

Running Game Thoughts: There was a Willie Parker sighting last week. Did you see it? If so, I hope you remembered it, because it may be a distant memory this week. Baltimore’s defense finished the season 3rd best against the run, even though Chris Johnson sliced them up last week on his way to 72 yards on only 11 carries. I suspect Mewelde Moore will get more than the three carries he got last week. The Steelers will need all hands on deck in the running game in order to put up any semblance of a balanced offensive attack. Keep an eye on Gary Russell. He got a short TD run in the 4th quarter last week and could conceivably get another this week. There won’t be much success on the ground for Pittsburgh, regardless of who gets the bulk of the carries. For better of for worse, this game will be won or lost on the QB play of Ben Roethlisberger.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Hines Ward: 85 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 50 yards
Nate Washington: 25 yards
Heath Miller: 20 yards
Willie Parker: 55 yards
Mewelde Moore: 35 yards
Gary Russell: 10 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 16, Baltimore 9