Nobody needs to be told
starting Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, or Calvin Johnson is
a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position,
though, unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This
is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain
basement QB to use and which to ignore on Manning’s bye
week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions at running back
because Charles is a game-time decision? Look no further. Need
to know which of your unproven targets to start and which to sit
since you ignored Megatron and went Jimmy Graham-RB-QB in your
first three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may not guarantee
future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin your Sundays
in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays). Read on for
a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
Championship Decision: Peyton Manning hasn't
cracked the fantasy top fifteen in the last three weeks.
Grab a Helmet
Mark
Sanchez @ WAS or Robert
Griffin III v. PHI (Saturday): Almost precisely a
year ago, I kicked off Championship Week with this same Philly-Washington
combo QB recommendation. I liked each team’s strength-on-weakness
matchup (Chicago and Dallas, respectively) and not much has changed
this year as they’ll be squaring off against each other. I should
say not much has changed except the names. Sanchez is now under
center instead of Nick Foles and RGIII, the guy Kirk Cousins replaced
in 2013, is back at the wheel in DC. Talk about turning the tables,
eh? Sanchez’s once-promising relief stint has turned decidedly sour,
but a “volume” effort seems likely against a Washington defense
that’s solid against the run and horrible against the pass. Griffin,
meanwhile, temporarily benefits from attrition and should build
on his best outing of 2014 (20.4 points in Week 15). Hold your nose,
maybe, but start them Saturday.
Matt
Ryan @ NO or Drew
Brees v. ATL: Way back in Week 1, before everyone knew
what a laughingstock the NFC South would become, Ryan and Brees
waged one of the most prolific intra-divisional battles of the season
in Hotlanta. When the smoke had cleared after the Falcons’ 37-34
victory, the two star signal callers had combined for almost 57
fantasy points. Is a repeat performance possible this Sunday in
New Orleans’ Superdome? Let’s just say they’ve scored the second
and third most points at the position the past five weeks (only
Andrew Luck has been better) and won’t exactly be facing stern opposition.
The Saints have yielded 3,600 yards through the air thus far, tied
for sixth worst overall. The Falcons, not to be outdone, have surrendered
4,095 yards. That’s tied with nobody for worst overall. The road
to a fantasy chip goes right through the Big Easy.
Aaron
Rodgers @ TB or Matthew
Stafford @ CHI: If you were lucky enough to survive Rodgers’
gruesome Week 15 (17 of 42 for 185 yards and two picks)…well, that
makes one of us. The recipe for winning a fantasy championship is
two parts production to one part timing and A-Rodge’s timing was
excruciatingly poor. Stafford’s wasn’t much better, actually, as
he managed to parlay a plus matchup with the Vikes into a mere 11.9
points, his second lowest output of the entire 2014 campaign. You
might be slightly hesitant to start Rodgers against Tampa, I suppose,
but don’t be daft. He’s the best quarterback in the business and
will rebound to win the league’s MVP award going away. It’s more
understandable you’d be weighing whether Stafford deserves a starting
nod, but maybe this will help sway you: He’s playing the Bears.
Consider these guys your early fantasy Christmas gifts.
Grab a Clipboard
Johnny
Manziel @ CAR or Ryan
Lindley v. SEA: You can’t possibly have noticed, but
I’ve devoted precisely 150 words to each of these start/sit recommendations
all season long, not one word more or less. Creepy, huh? Please
don’t judge. Normally, 150 words is plenty to make my point, but
I’d need ten times that many to explain why neither of these two
merit a sniff in Week 16. Let’s go with a bullet point summary
instead, eh?
- Manziel’s debut wasn’t the worst in NFL history
or even Browns history (see Weeden, Brandon), but it was truly
atrocious.
- Lindley’s started three more games than Manziel,
dating back to 2012, and has the same number of career passing
TDs (zero).
- I’d rank every other starting QB, including Charlie
Whitehurst and whoever starts for Houston this weekend, ahead
of them.
- Case Keenum or Thad Lewis will start for the Texans this
weekend.
Derek
Carr v. BUF: Johnny Football may well end up deserving
the outsized hype he’s generated this past year and change, but
even if he rebounds and excels in his final two starts, he’ll fall
well short of being the most productive rookie QB of the 2014 draft
class. In fact, that honor’s pretty much been sewn up by Carr, laboring
in relative obscurity for the bottom-feeding Raiders. It hasn’t
always been pretty (a 76.9 rating that ranks 30th out of 34 qualified
QBs), but he’s been an occasionally useful spot fantasy starter
and should end up being a top 20 QB by the end of the year. I personally
expected much, much worse from him. All that aside, he’s drawing
the white hot Buffalo defense this Sunday, a group that just held
Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to 20.5 combined points the past
two weeks. This isn’t Carr’s spot.
Eli
Manning @ STL or Peyton
Manning @ CIN (Monday): Speaking of Manning(s)…no,
your eyes don’t deceive you. The stock intro to this column
states nobody needs to be told starting Peyton is a good idea, but
do they need to be told when it isn’t? If ever there was a
time to be skeptical of Big Bro, fantasy and reality legend, now
is that time. The Broncos have, almost overnight, become the most
run-reliant team in the league (100+ attempts the last three weeks)
and, accordingly, Peyton’s only attempted 40 passes his past
two games. Shockingly, that means he’s scored fewer points
than all these guys since Week 12: the aforementioned Carr, Shaun
Hill, Josh McCown, Colt McCoy, Blake Bortles, Drew Stanton, and
Kid Bro (by a fair margin). That last sentence doesn’t even
make sense in some wacky alternate universe. Avoid Archie’s
boys this coming Sunday and Monday.
Running Backs 
|
